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raperate1

The Washington Post posted an op-ed about a week ago with the title Is porn immoral? That doesn’t matter: It’s a public health crisis. The author is listed as follows: Gail Dines is a professor of sociology at Wheelock College in Boston and author of “Pornland: How Porn has Hijacked our Sexuality.” To not put too fine a point on it sociologists are generally full of shit. Sometimes they are correct. Oftentimes they are wrong. But they are always full of shit. The “reproducibility crisis” means we need to look at a lot of science with a skeptical eye, from the sexy findings of social psychology, to the medical studies which clinicians rely upon. Out of all these scholarly endeavors sociology may be the most insulated from concerns of reproducibility since it is such a brazen prostitute of a discipline, beholden to political considerations Über Alles.

41WL2k2+47L._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_ Dines uses the words “association” and “correlation” several times. Here is the only reference to cause in the piece: “Pornography can cause lifelong problems if young people are not taught to distinguish between exploitative porn sex and healthy, safe sex.” They rest on associations and correlations.

If you’ve read Jim Manzi’s Uncontrolled you know that you need to be very wary of modest correlations in social science. I would not be surprised if Brazilian fart porn was associated with sexually deviant behavior. But my own supposition is that it is more likely that Brazilian fart porn is an indicator of serious underlying problems, rather than the cause of those problems.

But, we do have a massive social experiment going on today in relation to the impact of porn on society. Starting around 1995, and at various points of initialization over the next ten years in various locales, the internet became ubiquitous enough in the developed world that the tight constraint on “supply” of porn was removed, so that it met “demand.” This is pushing porn in more perverse and kinky directions. It also means youth over the past generation have had incredibly easy access to very hardcore pornography.

As you can see above in the early 1990s the FBI began receiving fewer reports of rape, concomitant with the decline in violent crime generally. The decline in rape has continued through the age of porn. I doubt there is a causal relationship. But it goes to show that there is no macrosocial evidence that porn results in increased rapes in the aggregate.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Humor, Porn 
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  1. Razib,

    Good to see you’re back. What do you think about the other sociological research about males being “hooked” on online porn and having sexual dysfunctions with their partners? Could that also be an cause/effect confusion there, or is the evidence more solid for the addiction argument?

    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    like much of social science i think there are some small effects in some segment of the population.
  2. TIL via google that fart porn is not a made up phrase.
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=brazilian+fart+porn

    My education is now complete.

    Obligatory star wars quote: “I’ve been waiting for you, Obi-Wan. We meet again, at last. The circle is now complete. When I left you, I was but the learner; now I am the master.” Google can do that to you, if you but ask.

    That is to say, as an old with middle school kids, not happy about our current age of ubiquitous porn. I very much recall the stigma of the previous age of sneaking magazines with pictures printed on paper. But on balance agree there’s no compelling data showing internet porn is causal to any severe social ills.

  3. from my impression there are branches of sociology which are maybe not really suitable to find real, persistent truths, but still it is at least tried in a honest manner. This is in my opinion for example the case for some forms of economic sociology. Also in those branches there is a good competition between academics, so that people in academic positions do at least have a quite high IQ, and have read a lot. So in those branches of sociology there is still the general question whether there is real progress in a scientific way, but this questions holds true for every discipline of humanities, opposed to the natural sciences.
    But there are branches of sociology which are corrupted beyond believe. As soon as words like racism, gender etc. come up it almost never anything to do with honest seeking of truths. It is nothing but a ritual play with words. Unfortunately I have been to such courses in University. The ridiculous thing about those courses is on one side the deferential attitude of students who listen to this gibberish. Also the professors or course instructors do very much rely on their “authority”, as they have nothing else. From my experience for example in mathematics course instructors are mostly ready to react to good questions, and maybe even change their one view, because they care about the matter, while such sociology subjects do not even care about the matter. All they do is imitating real academic behavior, Cargo-Cult style.

  4. The bit about sociologists reminds me of Space Moose vs. Coprophage. That would have been in the 90s. Sociologists have been full of it for at least 20 years now.

  5. I doubt there is a causal relationship.

    I agree with this post wholeheartedly – and I oppose pornography on religious and moral grounds. The crime statistics are pretty clear – there has been a dramatic decrease in forcible rape concurrent with the widespread use of the Internet (and Internet-enabled pornography). Although, of course, there may be significant regional/sub-group differences.

    … porn is an indicator of serious underlying problems, rather than the cause of those problems.

    On this I disagree slightly, however. Although deviant pornography is indeed an indicator, I think it can also be a “force multiplier” of the said problems. From what I understand pornography is becoming more vicious and deviant. Combined with the widespread accessibility for the young, surely it cannot help and indeed must distort the sense of what a healthy sexual relationship means for the young who are exposed to it.

  6. I was hoping that “Brazilian fart porn” was just something you made up to illustrate your point. But no, there is porn of it. (And no, Google is not always your friend!)

  7. That chart is even more striking given that the definition of rape steadily expanded during that time period so that more conduct was criminalized and the consideration of the sexual history of the victim became forbidden. One would expect reporting to increase steadily throughout this period, and perhaps that’s what’s happening through 1993 as more people reported rape by their partners. Also, the influence of “The Burning Bed” movie in 1984, which raised the public question of when is it justified to kill your spouse. I wouldn’t be shocked if the availability of pornography offers a substitute for a certain category of rape, the man expecting sex with his partner that night and being denied. But certainly doesn’t appear to be increasing the crime.

  8. It is not hard to find evidence porn kills the sex drive, and shrinks the brain. Correlate that.

    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    personal experience?
  9. Isn’t porn viewership itself declining? Millennials are nearly sexless.

    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    or maybe they just aren't having sex with you.... :-)
  10. @Riordan
    Razib,

    Good to see you're back. What do you think about the other sociological research about males being "hooked" on online porn and having sexual dysfunctions with their partners? Could that also be an cause/effect confusion there, or is the evidence more solid for the addiction argument?

    like much of social science i think there are some small effects in some segment of the population.

  11. @Ben Gunn
    It is not hard to find evidence porn kills the sex drive, and shrinks the brain. Correlate that.

    personal experience?

  12. @Marcus
    Isn't porn viewership itself declining? Millennials are nearly sexless.

    or maybe they just aren’t having sex with you…. 🙂

    • Replies: @Marcus
    Cocooning and helicopter parenting took off in the mid 90s, hence atomization and "extended adolescence" of millennials, look at these overgrown babies https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-gen-y-guide/201510/why-millennials-are-failing-shack
  13. @Razib Khan
    or maybe they just aren't having sex with you.... :-)

    Cocooning and helicopter parenting took off in the mid 90s, hence atomization and “extended adolescence” of millennials, look at these overgrown babies https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-gen-y-guide/201510/why-millennials-are-failing-shack

  14. I doubt there is a causal relationship.

    I do wonder about the effect of games/internet simply keeping males at home during peak testosterone years – mass young male violence but perpetrated in Call of Duty?

    If there’s a difference in that between ethnic groups that might explain a few things also – free video games for gangstas?

  15. “Rape is the only violent crime in Utah whose rate exceeds the national average. By comparison, Utah’s rates for other violent crimes – such as murder, robbery or aggravated assault – are historically half to a third of the national average, according to the report, entitled ‘Rape in Utah: A Survey of Utah Women About Their Experience with Sexual Violence.’”
    http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_2935199

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    It's not just Utah. A couple of years ago, I did a limited survey of violent crime data in a few regions and noted the following. There was a significant decline in most violent crimes - murder, assault, and robbery as well as rape - in most metropolitan areas. I speculated that gentrification was the cause. This is something everyone noted.

    Then there was also a surprising increase in rape in some of the small towns and cities I looked at - small municipalities that were mostly blue collar white in population, usually in very white states (WA, CO, and NH come to mind first, as I recall). Their other violent crime rates stayed level or dropped from the 80's, but rape increased (not dramatically, but enough to warrant notice).

    I have wondered about the cause or causes for this since.
  16. AG says:

    Growing up on the farm, I have seen domesticated animals having sex and animals (same species) nearby uninterested.

    I am more curious why human or primates developed this intense interest in others (including totally different species) sexual activities . Both human adults and children become audience for domesticated animal copulation which is watched like live porn show.

    Yet, you all know your dogs totally ignore your own breeding activities.

    What is the biological reason for such Voyeurism?

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    why human or primates developed this intense interest in others
     
    It's not just sexual activity. We humans also like to stick around and watch others fight. Animals generally flee or join the fray. They don't wonder, "Gee, I wonder what would happen if a Cape Buffalo fought a Lion."

    We have theater. Animals don't.
  17. M says:

    Re the sex lives of young people, per GSS, not a whole lot of change from 1989 to 2014, either in frequency or partners:

    – Sex Frequency and Number of Partners in Last Year

    – Mean and Median Numbers of Partners since 18 (men on right, women on left)

    At least for the sample aged between 18-25. Only random fluctuations that would smooth out with a larger sample. There may be more or less teenage sex stuff, and the GSS doesn’t help with that. If anything, looks like a mild increase in number of partners since 18, for the 1985 to 2000 generation.

  18. @Sean


    "Rape is the only violent crime in Utah whose rate exceeds the national average. By comparison, Utah's rates for other violent crimes - such as murder, robbery or aggravated assault - are historically half to a third of the national average, according to the report, entitled 'Rape in Utah: A Survey of Utah Women About Their Experience with Sexual Violence.'"
    - http://www.sltrib.com/utah/ci_2935199

     

    It’s not just Utah. A couple of years ago, I did a limited survey of violent crime data in a few regions and noted the following. There was a significant decline in most violent crimes – murder, assault, and robbery as well as rape – in most metropolitan areas. I speculated that gentrification was the cause. This is something everyone noted.

    Then there was also a surprising increase in rape in some of the small towns and cities I looked at – small municipalities that were mostly blue collar white in population, usually in very white states (WA, CO, and NH come to mind first, as I recall). Their other violent crime rates stayed level or dropped from the 80’s, but rape increased (not dramatically, but enough to warrant notice).

    I have wondered about the cause or causes for this since.

  19. @AG
    Growing up on the farm, I have seen domesticated animals having sex and animals (same species) nearby uninterested.

    I am more curious why human or primates developed this intense interest in others (including totally different species) sexual activities . Both human adults and children become audience for domesticated animal copulation which is watched like live porn show.

    Yet, you all know your dogs totally ignore your own breeding activities.

    What is the biological reason for such Voyeurism?

    why human or primates developed this intense interest in others

    It’s not just sexual activity. We humans also like to stick around and watch others fight. Animals generally flee or join the fray. They don’t wonder, “Gee, I wonder what would happen if a Cape Buffalo fought a Lion.”

    We have theater. Animals don’t.

    • Replies: @CupOfCanada

    We have theater. Animals don’t.
     
    My cat had theater. It was the fish tank.
  20. There is some evidence that the relationship is causal i.e. that internet porn is a subsitute for rape. See http://idei.fr/sites/default/files/medias/doc/conf/sic/papers_2007/kendall.pdf

  21. Sociologists are full of shit, often.

    Porn like anything that is fun can be addictive, to certain people at least. That in itself would not be a real issue, as the withdrawal symptoms are not severe – panic attacks in people who previously had none, irritability, insomnia for several days) and the costs are low.

    However, because it shares the same pathways as ordinary sexual things, its heavy use for years, particularly by people unused to sex leads to normal sex drive not developing and possibly also other brain changes. (see article here: http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/how-porn-is-messing-with-your-manhood/)

    One possible avenue for research is that porn addicts tend to lose all morning and night erections while being metabolically healthy, which is not supposed to happen at all. Indeed, presence of such erections was used as a clue that the E.D. is of psychological origin, not caused by circulatory issues or beetus or high pressure.

    I imagine you’ll dismiss this as moralistic nonsense. Porn acceptance has been a great victory for free speech after all.

    Wiser would be witholding judgement before talking in RL to people who might know, such as urologists. Surely there is someone dealing with student sexual health at your university?

  22. Agree that the linked article is horse shit. Agree with several of the commenters that there is probably something to the neuroscience (not sociology) -based claims that porn often leads to addiction and related side-effects.

    My understanding, mainly from 28sherman, is that webcamming and escort services are where the money is now, and that the porn itself is just a loss leader.

  23. The USA is the biggest porn producer on Earth, farting or not:

    “Americans took the lead in global porn production following the Second World War, where thousands of soldiers were trained as semi-professional filmmakers. Using smaller, portable 8- and 16-millimetre cameras to shoot combat footage, these troops learned how to create movies cheaply and flexibly. After the war, some used the new standardized technology to create an independent movie scene outside of Hollywood, the most popular genre of which turned out to be soft-core porn, or what would come to be known as sexploitation.

    With the huge popularity of movies such as Russ Meyer’s Faster Pussycat, Kill! Kill!, would-be filmmakers piled in to the genre and technological innovation exploded. Peep-show booths that ran film loops came first, then camcorders and VCRs—many of which were invented in Japan, but adopted first in the United States by porn directors. Then came the inevitable move to DVD and, finally, the Internet. Along the way, American producers led each technological paradigm shift.

    It’s no surprise that Americans are dominating the current stage, with an estimated 89% of porn created in the U.S.”

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/u-s-leads-the-way-in-porn-production-but-falls-behind-in-profits/

    But not the biggest consumer:

    “According to SimilarWeb’s analysis, the top two countries with the highest share of adult websites are Iraq and Egypt, two socially conservative countries that many wouldn’t have previously thought would factor in the top 10. Rounding out the category are predominantly European nations with the likes of Japan and Peru making up the Asian and South American contingent.

    Meanwhile on the list of countries with the longest average session time, East beats West. Middle-Eastern countries along with those in Asia dominate the top of the rankings. Interestingly, neither the the USA, UK or Canada are ranked on the below chart, suggesting that there is a very lucrative market for adult websites overseas’”

    http://thenextweb.com/market-intelligence/2015/03/24/who-are-the-biggest-consumers-of-online-porn/#gref

    Then maybe the chart Razib brought to discussion isn´t telling all the story. A more acurate analysis should factor porn-induced rapes abroad.

    • Replies: @Marcus
    Forbidden fruit
    , @M
    Revenue doesn't seem a great indicator of use, given how much is freely available in the US. There's not necessarily going to be a lot of money in it in the US when Americans have redtube and the like. With a content glut and a convenience over quality oriented web presence the US could be a lot cheaper and less profitable than Iraq or Egypt, at a place on the curve balanced between being relatively conservative while production is possible, where you might expect local content to be scarce and therefore expensive.

    Session time doesn't necessarily seem to link up with use that much either. Don Jon type porn addicts like in that eponymous movie pretty much click in, get their fix and then log out, scarfing down their fast food porn.equivalent. I don't know if that's necessarily a healthier or less healthy behaviour than watching a long movie, like you might expect the Japs to do, given they are known for being a market that specializes in long form AV movies. If you bought into the idea that porn gives rise to a disposable, quick fix, impulsive, throwaway view of sex, then short session time isn't necessarily better (since it just indicates users are using it in more a quick fix way).
  24. @Twinkie

    why human or primates developed this intense interest in others
     
    It's not just sexual activity. We humans also like to stick around and watch others fight. Animals generally flee or join the fray. They don't wonder, "Gee, I wonder what would happen if a Cape Buffalo fought a Lion."

    We have theater. Animals don't.

    We have theater. Animals don’t.

    My cat had theater. It was the fish tank.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    My cat had theater. It was the fish tank.
     
    That you, presumably a human being, bought or built.

    In nature, cats don't have theater. The ones that do not swim will move on and the ones that do will pounce on whatever strikes their fancy in the water. Predator animals are keenly aware of their energy necessity, and don't waste time with "useless" endeavors (an exception would be the young that play, but even that "play" is usually learning how to hunt).
  25. @centrosphere
    The USA is the biggest porn producer on Earth, farting or not:

    "Americans took the lead in global porn production following the Second World War, where thousands of soldiers were trained as semi-professional filmmakers. Using smaller, portable 8- and 16-millimetre cameras to shoot combat footage, these troops learned how to create movies cheaply and flexibly. After the war, some used the new standardized technology to create an independent movie scene outside of Hollywood, the most popular genre of which turned out to be soft-core porn, or what would come to be known as sexploitation.

    With the huge popularity of movies such as Russ Meyer’s Faster Pussycat, Kill! Kill!, would-be filmmakers piled in to the genre and technological innovation exploded. Peep-show booths that ran film loops came first, then camcorders and VCRs—many of which were invented in Japan, but adopted first in the United States by porn directors. Then came the inevitable move to DVD and, finally, the Internet. Along the way, American producers led each technological paradigm shift.

    It’s no surprise that Americans are dominating the current stage, with an estimated 89% of porn created in the U.S."

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/u-s-leads-the-way-in-porn-production-but-falls-behind-in-profits/

    But not the biggest consumer:

    "According to SimilarWeb’s analysis, the top two countries with the highest share of adult websites are Iraq and Egypt, two socially conservative countries that many wouldn’t have previously thought would factor in the top 10. Rounding out the category are predominantly European nations with the likes of Japan and Peru making up the Asian and South American contingent.

    Meanwhile on the list of countries with the longest average session time, East beats West. Middle-Eastern countries along with those in Asia dominate the top of the rankings. Interestingly, neither the the USA, UK or Canada are ranked on the below chart, suggesting that there is a very lucrative market for adult websites overseas'"

    http://thenextweb.com/market-intelligence/2015/03/24/who-are-the-biggest-consumers-of-online-porn/#gref

    Then maybe the chart Razib brought to discussion isn´t telling all the story. A more acurate analysis should factor porn-induced rapes abroad.

    Forbidden fruit

  26. Given that the chart above mirrors violent crime rates in general (as far as I know), wouldn’t an explanation like the lead-crime hypothesis or the suggestion above about young men staying entertained and inside be more likely than something purely sex-related?

  27. the sociologist above is apparently a radical feminist who has been allying with social conservatives, and has been effective in changing policy….

    http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/04/the-origins-of-utahs-fake-public-health-crisis-over-porn.html

    Given that the chart above mirrors violent crime rates in general (as far as I know), wouldn’t an explanation like the lead-crime hypothesis or the suggestion above about young men staying entertained and inside be more likely than something purely sex-related?

    no one has given a good cross-national explanation for the decline in crime to me. but yes, i don’t think pr0n has anything to do with anything by and large (extreme porn-addicts aside).

  28. You’ve probably seen the website “Spurious Correlations.” It’s played for laughs, but it does serve as a cautionary warning. The fact that the number of doctorates in sociology tracks pretty closely with the number of non-commercial space launches is obviously simply chance, but the correlation between X and Y that Professor Rindvieh spent 20 years teasing out, well, surely there’s something to that.
    Or maybe not.

  29. The Japanese have a taste for violent porn and yet have a very low incidence of rape.

    • Replies: @Sean the Neon Caucasian
    I think deep down the Japanese are farmers and being largely left alone on an archipelago for a few thousand years made for some outlets of perversion acceptable, as long as it doesn't carry over into physical acts against others. I don't know, it just seems like Japan is where sociology just dies.
    , @Twinkie

    The Japanese have a taste for violent porn
     
    What does "have a taste for..." mean in statistical terms?
  30. M says:
    @centrosphere
    The USA is the biggest porn producer on Earth, farting or not:

    "Americans took the lead in global porn production following the Second World War, where thousands of soldiers were trained as semi-professional filmmakers. Using smaller, portable 8- and 16-millimetre cameras to shoot combat footage, these troops learned how to create movies cheaply and flexibly. After the war, some used the new standardized technology to create an independent movie scene outside of Hollywood, the most popular genre of which turned out to be soft-core porn, or what would come to be known as sexploitation.

    With the huge popularity of movies such as Russ Meyer’s Faster Pussycat, Kill! Kill!, would-be filmmakers piled in to the genre and technological innovation exploded. Peep-show booths that ran film loops came first, then camcorders and VCRs—many of which were invented in Japan, but adopted first in the United States by porn directors. Then came the inevitable move to DVD and, finally, the Internet. Along the way, American producers led each technological paradigm shift.

    It’s no surprise that Americans are dominating the current stage, with an estimated 89% of porn created in the U.S."

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/u-s-leads-the-way-in-porn-production-but-falls-behind-in-profits/

    But not the biggest consumer:

    "According to SimilarWeb’s analysis, the top two countries with the highest share of adult websites are Iraq and Egypt, two socially conservative countries that many wouldn’t have previously thought would factor in the top 10. Rounding out the category are predominantly European nations with the likes of Japan and Peru making up the Asian and South American contingent.

    Meanwhile on the list of countries with the longest average session time, East beats West. Middle-Eastern countries along with those in Asia dominate the top of the rankings. Interestingly, neither the the USA, UK or Canada are ranked on the below chart, suggesting that there is a very lucrative market for adult websites overseas'"

    http://thenextweb.com/market-intelligence/2015/03/24/who-are-the-biggest-consumers-of-online-porn/#gref

    Then maybe the chart Razib brought to discussion isn´t telling all the story. A more acurate analysis should factor porn-induced rapes abroad.

    Revenue doesn’t seem a great indicator of use, given how much is freely available in the US. There’s not necessarily going to be a lot of money in it in the US when Americans have redtube and the like. With a content glut and a convenience over quality oriented web presence the US could be a lot cheaper and less profitable than Iraq or Egypt, at a place on the curve balanced between being relatively conservative while production is possible, where you might expect local content to be scarce and therefore expensive.

    Session time doesn’t necessarily seem to link up with use that much either. Don Jon type porn addicts like in that eponymous movie pretty much click in, get their fix and then log out, scarfing down their fast food porn.equivalent. I don’t know if that’s necessarily a healthier or less healthy behaviour than watching a long movie, like you might expect the Japs to do, given they are known for being a market that specializes in long form AV movies. If you bought into the idea that porn gives rise to a disposable, quick fix, impulsive, throwaway view of sex, then short session time isn’t necessarily better (since it just indicates users are using it in more a quick fix way).

  31. @HALDOL
    The Japanese have a taste for violent porn and yet have a very low incidence of rape.

    I think deep down the Japanese are farmers and being largely left alone on an archipelago for a few thousand years made for some outlets of perversion acceptable, as long as it doesn’t carry over into physical acts against others. I don’t know, it just seems like Japan is where sociology just dies.

  32. no one has given a good cross-national explanation for the decline in crime to me

    This is assertion so feel free to ignore but the stats are always rigged where crime has increased for non PC reasons (immigration/race) and this clouds the issue.

    ### digression ###

    People generally counter that homicide should be a good proxy as it’s less easy to rig but the confound for that is medical – especially paramedics – I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the (until recently) disparity in Chicago homicides was the result of their paramedic service being particularly corrupt and as full of Aldermen’s nephews as the police dept.

    Similarly the recent spike in homicides in many cities may have as much to do with ambulance/paramedics holding back as the police holding back. A seriously wounded person has a much higher chance of surviving now since paramedics came in – as long as they’re operating efficiently (or at all).

    I can’t stress the paramedic factor enough – it’s why the military had them first.

    ###

    For example where it’s been made illegal FGM would logically be treated as a violent crime – but it’s not; it’s ignored. In the UK (and everywhere else in Western Europe) tens of thousands of early teen rapes are ignored and never added to the stats because they contradict PC…

    anyway, blah, blah – my point is research would need to take PC stat rigging into account.

    #

    Taking that into account i think the base crime model is very simple:

    the number of young men of a particular ethnicity/class (x) multiplied by an ethnicity/class based factor for propensity to commit particular crimes (y).

    So in any area add up the number of young men from each ethnicity/class, multiply by their respective ethnic/class factor and add the total.

    that would imply what I’ve seen which is

    1) in areas where the ethnic/class factor is unchanged but
    – the number of young men drops
    – the way they spend their time changes (maybe?)
    then you’ll get a drop in crime

    2) in areas where the ethnic/class factor is unchanged but
    – the number of young men increases
    then you’ll get an increase in crime

    3) in areas where the ethnic/class factor has changed where
    – it leads to a decrease in certain kinds of crime
    then you’ll get a decrease in crime

    4) in areas where the ethnic/class factor changes where
    – it leads to an increase in certain kinds of crime
    then you’ll get an increase in actual crime, a decrease in recorded crime (stats rigged) and lots of people moving away.

    Those are the cases imo so to avoid confounds you’d need to research the first two cases separately – and what I expect you’d find would simply be an aging population reducing the x part of the equation

    (and maybe environmental factors like home entertainment effecting the y part – my generation were out in the street until bed time so it seems possible but prob not necessary)

    You could also research the third and fourth cases together and you’d find
    – some areas where crime was officially stagnant or decreasing where the original population was declining slowly
    – some areas where crime was officially stagnant or decreasing where the original population moved out en masse within 10-20 years.

    You could also research violent crime in the fourth case where the kommisars have rigged the crime stats but forgot to rig the local hospital stats.

    #

    number of young men (x)
    ethnic/class based crime factor (y)
    x times y
    prison reduces the x
    paramedic factor greatly confounds homicide rates

    #

    population A have a crime factor of 2y
    population B have a crime factor of 4y

    100% A – average 2y
    90% A, 10% B – average 2.2y
    80% A, 20% B – average 2.4y

    so a gradual increase in crime over time over the country as a whole even though some areas see their local crime rate rapidly double.

    same thing but where population A is in the process of its crime factor decreasing from 2y to 1.5y

    100% A – average 2y
    90% A, 10% B – average 1.75y
    80% A, 20% B – average 2.y
    60% A, 40% B – average 2.5y

    the overall crime rate dips at first because a large increase in a minority of places is masked by a decrease in the majority of places

    this is what is actually happening in my experience and some at least could be proved and the rest inferred from that

    if correct the proof will be when a tipping point is reached and crime will go up dramatically and uncontrollably

  33. @CupOfCanada

    We have theater. Animals don’t.
     
    My cat had theater. It was the fish tank.

    My cat had theater. It was the fish tank.

    That you, presumably a human being, bought or built.

    In nature, cats don’t have theater. The ones that do not swim will move on and the ones that do will pounce on whatever strikes their fancy in the water. Predator animals are keenly aware of their energy necessity, and don’t waste time with “useless” endeavors (an exception would be the young that play, but even that “play” is usually learning how to hunt).

  34. @HALDOL
    The Japanese have a taste for violent porn and yet have a very low incidence of rape.

    The Japanese have a taste for violent porn

    What does “have a taste for…” mean in statistical terms?

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