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NIHMS626145.html

In 2011 I was having dinner with an old friend who was an engineer at Intel. He also has a Ph.D. from MIT. Smart guy. But when I mentioned casually offhand that we were all a few percent Neanderthal (outside of Africa), he was surprised. I was a bit shocked, as I explained that this was a huge science story. The Neanderthal genome had been published the previous year. How could my friend not have known?

He was totally unembarrassed, and told me I overestimated how closely the public followed genetics and paleontology. I’m sure he was right. But it’s hard to remember sometimes.

We’ve gone further beyond where we were in 2010. We now have a really good grasp of a lot of population dynamics in Eurasia over the past 20,000 years. Probably the best place to start is with this preprint, The genetic structure of the world’s first farmers. But the general outlines were already evident a few years back in Toward a new history and geography of human genes informed by ancient DNA.

Most of the world’s population seems to descend from a mixing of a set of groups which 10,000 years ago were distinct. How distinct? We’re talking about Fst values on the order of 0.10, which means that ~10% of the variation genetically is partitioned across two pairwise populations. That’s about what you see between Europeans and Chinese today. Some of the Fst values were a bit higher, some lower, but the 0.10 seems about right.

BlankMap-Worl To make it easy for some of you, I’ve labeled and placed the approximate locations of ancestral groups to modern Northern Europeans ~10,000 years ago. What I’m trying to represent is a map which shows the modal regions of distribution of ancestors that Northern Europeans today had 10,000 years ago. So, for example, since ~15% of the ancestry of Northern Europeans is “Ancient North Eurasian” (ANE), a lot of ancestors of Northern Europeans alive today would be living somewhere in the broad expanse of Central Eurasia (now, because of various demographic events the number of ANE was probably lower than farmers, perhaps lower than the 15% contribution to the modern genomes).

A substantial proportion of the ancestry of Northern Europeans is “European hunter-gatherer,” dating to the Pleistocene. But here’s the kicker: most of that ancestry dates to after the LGM, to about ~15,000 years ago. The really deep Pleistocene ancestry in Europe is only found at very low levels now.

The final issue is that a lot of the phenotypes that we racially code are recent. This probably explains why groups like the Kalash and Nuristanis can look more like Europeans than South Asians, but they’re genetically more like South Asians.

What does any of this have to do with non-scientific things? I don’t really know. My interest in population structure is intellectual, not personal. But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. First, the ancestors of modern Europeans 40,000 years ago were almost all residing outside of Europe. An assertion that holds until 15,000 years ago. And most would still be resident outside of Europe 8,000 years ago as depending on how you count/calculate* And, perhaps more importantly, the typical phenotype of Northern Europeans probably really coalesced only around ~5,000 years ago.

* Definitely true for Southern Europeans, but conditional on Northern Europeans depending on where you draw Europe’s eastern boundary.

Addendum: I stole the title from John McWhorter’s book, Our Magnificent Bastard Tongue.

Also, this is not to say that

1) population structure today is trivial in a phylogenetic sense, it isn’t.

2) it is not to say that population structure functionally irrelevant, it isn’t.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Genetics, Genomics 
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  1. backup says:

    A substantial proportion of the ancestry of Northern Europeans is “European hunter-gatherer,” dating to the Pleistocene. But here’s the kicker: most of that ancestry dates to after the LGM, to about ~15,000 years ago. The really deep Pleistocene ancestry in Europe is only found at very low levels now.

    I not sure that is true. At the end of the LGM we have the red Lady of El Miron, who already had a third WHG – as I am going to call that specific ancestry you mention – which indicates to me that at least a large part of the WHG clade must have lived not too far from Iberia during the LGM. Also, her mtDNA as well as Paglicci71 (also living at the end of LGM) was U5b. WHG must have originated somewhere near those two.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    I not sure that is true. At the end of the LGM we have the red Lady of El Miron, who already had a third WHG – as I am going to call that specific ancestry you mention – which indicates to me that at least a large part of the WHG clade must have lived not too far from Iberia during the LGM. Also, her mtDNA as well as Paglicci71 (also living at the end of LGM) was U5b. WHG must have originated somewhere near those two.



    i think my prose here is pretty confusing. what i'm saying is that most of the european groups 30-40 K did not contribute much to the 15 K groups. some did for sure. and, there is reasonable debate i think where the 15 K groups are mostly or not mostly indigenous to europe dating to LGM.

    i think the case is strongest in southern europe where non-WHG is clearly below 50%....
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  2. Shaikorth says:

    Razib, I’d like to know what you think about the following issue: In Broushaki et al. 2016 modern populations of the world are modeled as haplotype mixes (based on Chromopainter profiles) of high coverage West Eurasian ancient genomes, Ust-Ishim, ancient East African Mota plus modern Yoruba and Han. Despite the model having Neolithic Farmers from both Anatolia and Europe (NE1 + LBK), many North and East Europeans do not get any donations from them, but appear as mixes of Loschbour and Kotias (KK1) in both datasets used. Do you think this is caused by the farmer ancestry in the north actually coming from a farmer population that split off before LBK and Anatolian Neolithic and getting proxied by Loschbour+Kotias like steppe ancestry clearly is?

    The alternative I can think of is that the lack of high coverage EHG or ANE sample for the model affects it, but I’m not fully sure what to expect if it does – would it reduce farmer ancestry? An earlier paper lacked Han (and East Asian proxy in general) in a similar model, and that resulted in pops such as Kalmyks getting modeled as 100% Loschbour. In Broushaki models they’re mostly Han.

    Models in question for Europeans (thanks to Matt for collecting these):
    Lazaridis dataset
    Busby dataset
    taken from supplementary tables here:

    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2016/07/13/science.aaf7943.DC1

    Selfcopying can be, according to the paper, drift or unexplained ancestry but should be just drift in case of Europeans, it’s really only Oceanians and African hunter-gatherers that really can’t be modeled, even poorly, with those populations and always get self-copy that reflects that. Native Americans can appear as Ust-Ishim+Han mixes, so U-I proxies their Ancient North Eurasian better than self-copy. Based on how South Asian results look like, ASI can also appear as Ust-Ishim here.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    Do you think this is caused by the farmer ancestry in the north actually coming from a farmer population that split off before LBK and Anatolian Neolithic and getting proxied by Loschbour+Kotias like steppe ancestry clearly is?



    could it be that kotias is a mix of the the two farmer groups, and is higher quality than both of them?
  3. “But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. ”
    I assume this refers to various white nationalists…no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past. But personally I have to say it doesn’t matter at all to me if “white” people have only existed for a few thousand years…I’m still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.


    maybe. i think it is important to set aside excessive reliance on scientific details in relation to these sorts of things.

    no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past.

    it's not only the dumb ones. i've seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from 'race realists.' kind of dumb to call yourself a realist if you don't keep up on our understanding of reality.
    , @Razib Khan
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.



    also, they killed a lot of the native peoples. if you want to "learn" from it...
    , @Joe Walker
    But personally I have to say it doesn’t matter at all to me if “white” people have only existed for a few thousand years…I’m still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.

    Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist.
    , @Anonymous
    German_reader, the interesting item on Razib's "anti WN" list is this one: "perhaps more importantly, the typical phenotype of Northern Europeans probably really coalesced only around ~5,000 years ago."

    We're talking visible changes to the European phenotype that were driven by strong selection during the childhood years of higher civilization in Europe. Wait. European whiteness and European civilization, joined at the hip?

    Pretty please White Nationalists, try to be all over this, at least generating plausible just so stories. This should be more interesting, more entertaining, and more relevant than the migrations of 40Kya.
  4. @German_reader
    "But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. "
    I assume this refers to various white nationalists...no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past. But personally I have to say it doesn't matter at all to me if "white" people have only existed for a few thousand years...I'm still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their "We're all immigrants/mongrels" line and exploit it as much as they can. I'm not looking forward to that.

    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.

    maybe. i think it is important to set aside excessive reliance on scientific details in relation to these sorts of things.

    no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past.

    it’s not only the dumb ones. i’ve seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from ‘race realists.’ kind of dumb to call yourself a realist if you don’t keep up on our understanding of reality.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Razib,

    i’ve seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from ‘race realists.’
     
    That is what my intuition tells me from some of the stuff I read on these kinds of forums, but I am not literate in this field to forward a legitimate opinion.

    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I'm kind of wondering if my hunches are right.

    Peace.
  5. @Shaikorth
    Razib, I'd like to know what you think about the following issue: In Broushaki et al. 2016 modern populations of the world are modeled as haplotype mixes (based on Chromopainter profiles) of high coverage West Eurasian ancient genomes, Ust-Ishim, ancient East African Mota plus modern Yoruba and Han. Despite the model having Neolithic Farmers from both Anatolia and Europe (NE1 + LBK), many North and East Europeans do not get any donations from them, but appear as mixes of Loschbour and Kotias (KK1) in both datasets used. Do you think this is caused by the farmer ancestry in the north actually coming from a farmer population that split off before LBK and Anatolian Neolithic and getting proxied by Loschbour+Kotias like steppe ancestry clearly is?

    The alternative I can think of is that the lack of high coverage EHG or ANE sample for the model affects it, but I'm not fully sure what to expect if it does - would it reduce farmer ancestry? An earlier paper lacked Han (and East Asian proxy in general) in a similar model, and that resulted in pops such as Kalmyks getting modeled as 100% Loschbour. In Broushaki models they're mostly Han.

    Models in question for Europeans (thanks to Matt for collecting these):
    Lazaridis dataset
    http://i.imgur.com/kbJdcgo.png

    Busby dataset
    http://i.imgur.com/tOxZJP2.png
    taken from supplementary tables here:
    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2016/07/13/science.aaf7943.DC1

    Selfcopying can be, according to the paper, drift or unexplained ancestry but should be just drift in case of Europeans, it's really only Oceanians and African hunter-gatherers that really can't be modeled, even poorly, with those populations and always get self-copy that reflects that. Native Americans can appear as Ust-Ishim+Han mixes, so U-I proxies their Ancient North Eurasian better than self-copy. Based on how South Asian results look like, ASI can also appear as Ust-Ishim here.

    Do you think this is caused by the farmer ancestry in the north actually coming from a farmer population that split off before LBK and Anatolian Neolithic and getting proxied by Loschbour+Kotias like steppe ancestry clearly is?

    could it be that kotias is a mix of the the two farmer groups, and is higher quality than both of them?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Shaikorth
    Looks like I was careless, the NE1 is actually Hungarian early Neolithic and not Anatolian, though it should be quite similar. While the possibility of North and East Europe not having direct ancestry from Hungarian EN and LBK would still be a big deal if true, that may leave way for the possible farmer split being post Anatolian (going to Ukraine 'round the Black Sea coast?). Regarding your question Kotias's coverage is actually lower than both western farmers (15x vs 20x). CHG looks like part Iranian Neolithic part European/Anatolian Neolithic, or even just more Villabruna than Iranian Neolithic.
  6. @German_reader
    "But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. "
    I assume this refers to various white nationalists...no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past. But personally I have to say it doesn't matter at all to me if "white" people have only existed for a few thousand years...I'm still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their "We're all immigrants/mongrels" line and exploit it as much as they can. I'm not looking forward to that.

    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.

    also, they killed a lot of the native peoples. if you want to “learn” from it…

    Read More
    • Agree: gruff
    • Replies: @German_reader
    Yes exactly, if I understand correctly, the Indo-European invasion probably wasn't that fun for the first farmers. But that's not what the media will probably concentrate on...
  7. Shaikorth says:
    @Razib Khan
    Do you think this is caused by the farmer ancestry in the north actually coming from a farmer population that split off before LBK and Anatolian Neolithic and getting proxied by Loschbour+Kotias like steppe ancestry clearly is?



    could it be that kotias is a mix of the the two farmer groups, and is higher quality than both of them?

    Looks like I was careless, the NE1 is actually Hungarian early Neolithic and not Anatolian, though it should be quite similar. While the possibility of North and East Europe not having direct ancestry from Hungarian EN and LBK would still be a big deal if true, that may leave way for the possible farmer split being post Anatolian (going to Ukraine ’round the Black Sea coast?). Regarding your question Kotias’s coverage is actually lower than both western farmers (15x vs 20x). CHG looks like part Iranian Neolithic part European/Anatolian Neolithic, or even just more Villabruna than Iranian Neolithic.

    Read More
  8. 22pp22 says:

    Surely these studies of genetics in Europe and elsewhere over the past 50,000 years need to be correlated with the presence or absence of ice sheets, especially in Northern Europe. I doubt anyone was living there 40,000 years ago.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    probably central europe though. oase is from romania

    http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2015/06/oase-1-early-modern-human-from-romania.html

    though sheets expanded up to LGM 20 K BP.
  9. @Razib Khan
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.



    also, they killed a lot of the native peoples. if you want to "learn" from it...

    Yes exactly, if I understand correctly, the Indo-European invasion probably wasn’t that fun for the first farmers. But that’s not what the media will probably concentrate on…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Randal

    But that’s not what the media will probably concentrate on…

     

    Much as the naive immigrationists, who refer to (post Columbus) American history to support the idea that the US is a nation built on mass immigration, rather miss the point that the experience was not a good one for the indigenous pre-Columbus populations.
  10. @22pp22
    Surely these studies of genetics in Europe and elsewhere over the past 50,000 years need to be correlated with the presence or absence of ice sheets, especially in Northern Europe. I doubt anyone was living there 40,000 years ago.

    probably central europe though. oase is from romania

    http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2015/06/oase-1-early-modern-human-from-romania.html

    though sheets expanded up to LGM 20 K BP.

    Read More
    • Replies: @22pp22
    The findings from Romania make sense from a geological perspective. Most of what is today the Balkans supported forest or steppe and would have been inhabited. 20,000 years ago the rest of Central Europe was tundra and I doubt had any appreciable population whatsoever. I don't know about pollen studies in Central Asia and what they say about the climate there.
    , @backup
    The Bohunician culture is proposed to be modern human. It would push back the time to around 50.000 ya. Since they lived in an area which is connected to both Western-Europe and the area was tundra and shrubs back then, I am wondering if they may have been related to the introduction of Kostenki 14 related ancestry.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/106/38/16040.full
  11. it should probably go without saying i don’t want your dumb comments on this thread sean. you have weak command of the literature. at least compared to me.

    Read More
  12. Matt_ says:

    The Last Glacial Maximum sucked, and it was brutal for the people who lived in Europe… And it looks like, when it ended, other populations than those in West and Central European refugia bounced back quicker (maybe for climatic reasons; perhaps whichever species they hunted bounced back faster). From those others the post-LGM European hunter gatherers were largely descended and then they were themselves largely replaced by farmers.

    Though, if you use the D-stat measures, at the same time, it does seem like Europeans today are actually qa bit closer to the people of the Magdalenian in Europe (the El Miron sample), than they are to any of the late paleolithic hunter gatherers of either Israel (the Natufians), the Caucasus, or Iran (Hotu Cave)… And the earliest farmers in Turkey are also about as close to Europeans as Europeans are to the Magdalenians (well, most Europeans are a little closer to the earliest Turkish farmers, but it looks like Lithuanians aren’t…).

    Not that Europeans are descended, in very appreciable amounts, from those LGM people. They’re not ancestors, and if I’d grope for an analogy (and only come up with a very loose, inexact one), more like the lost colony of Roanoke is to the Americans of British ancestry today (relatives, who died out without leaving descendants, albeit with much greater genetic distance than in the analogous).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Shaikorth

    And the earliest farmers in Turkey are also about as close to Europeans as Europeans are to the Magdalenians (well, most Europeans are a little closer to the earliest Turkish farmers, but it looks like Lithuanians aren’t…).
     
    Looks like German Bell Beakers and Corded Ware weren't either, but Unetice, Srubnaya and Andronovo were.
  13. 22pp22 says:
    @Razib Khan
    probably central europe though. oase is from romania

    http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2015/06/oase-1-early-modern-human-from-romania.html

    though sheets expanded up to LGM 20 K BP.

    The findings from Romania make sense from a geological perspective. Most of what is today the Balkans supported forest or steppe and would have been inhabited. 20,000 years ago the rest of Central Europe was tundra and I doubt had any appreciable population whatsoever. I don’t know about pollen studies in Central Asia and what they say about the climate there.

    Read More
  14. Sean says:

    OK I’ll ask a question. If key aspects of the the modern European phenotype were the result of some kind of selection of modern European ancestors around 5000 years ago, which I think you’ve said you believe, why is it probable rather than unknown whether similar selection (of whatever type) didn’t happen to at least some of the much earlier (unrelated to modern) Europeans?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    we know the genetic architecture of pigmentation really well. the same genes get targeted over and over. in fact, they get targeted in all sorts of different phylogenetic contexts (eurasia, southern africa!). there's only so many ways you can arrange the architecture in humans, and the old eurasians seem to be mostly ancestral, not derived.
  15. @Sean
    OK I'll ask a question. If key aspects of the the modern European phenotype were the result of some kind of selection of modern European ancestors around 5000 years ago, which I think you've said you believe, why is it probable rather than unknown whether similar selection (of whatever type) didn't happen to at least some of the much earlier (unrelated to modern) Europeans?

    we know the genetic architecture of pigmentation really well. the same genes get targeted over and over. in fact, they get targeted in all sorts of different phylogenetic contexts (eurasia, southern africa!). there’s only so many ways you can arrange the architecture in humans, and the old eurasians seem to be mostly ancestral, not derived.

    Read More
  16. Shaikorth says:
    @Matt_
    The Last Glacial Maximum sucked, and it was brutal for the people who lived in Europe... And it looks like, when it ended, other populations than those in West and Central European refugia bounced back quicker (maybe for climatic reasons; perhaps whichever species they hunted bounced back faster). From those others the post-LGM European hunter gatherers were largely descended and then they were themselves largely replaced by farmers.

    Though, if you use the D-stat measures, at the same time, it does seem like Europeans today are actually qa bit closer to the people of the Magdalenian in Europe (the El Miron sample), than they are to any of the late paleolithic hunter gatherers of either Israel (the Natufians), the Caucasus, or Iran (Hotu Cave)... And the earliest farmers in Turkey are also about as close to Europeans as Europeans are to the Magdalenians (well, most Europeans are a little closer to the earliest Turkish farmers, but it looks like Lithuanians aren't...).

    Not that Europeans are descended, in very appreciable amounts, from those LGM people. They're not ancestors, and if I'd grope for an analogy (and only come up with a very loose, inexact one), more like the lost colony of Roanoke is to the Americans of British ancestry today (relatives, who died out without leaving descendants, albeit with much greater genetic distance than in the analogous).

    And the earliest farmers in Turkey are also about as close to Europeans as Europeans are to the Magdalenians (well, most Europeans are a little closer to the earliest Turkish farmers, but it looks like Lithuanians aren’t…).

    Looks like German Bell Beakers and Corded Ware weren’t either, but Unetice, Srubnaya and Andronovo were.

    Read More
  17. @Shaikorth

    And the earliest farmers in Turkey are also about as close to Europeans as Europeans are to the Magdalenians (well, most Europeans are a little closer to the earliest Turkish farmers, but it looks like Lithuanians aren’t…).
     
    Looks like German Bell Beakers and Corded Ware weren't either, but Unetice, Srubnaya and Andronovo were.

    the HG reserve that david reich has alluded to?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Shaikorth
    Perhaps. The sheet didn't include Estonian CW so couldn't check how clinal.
  18. Shaikorth says:
    @Razib Khan
    the HG reserve that david reich has alluded to?

    Perhaps. The sheet didn’t include Estonian CW so couldn’t check how clinal.

    Read More
  19. @backup

    A substantial proportion of the ancestry of Northern Europeans is “European hunter-gatherer,” dating to the Pleistocene. But here’s the kicker: most of that ancestry dates to after the LGM, to about ~15,000 years ago. The really deep Pleistocene ancestry in Europe is only found at very low levels now.
     
    I not sure that is true. At the end of the LGM we have the red Lady of El Miron, who already had a third WHG - as I am going to call that specific ancestry you mention - which indicates to me that at least a large part of the WHG clade must have lived not too far from Iberia during the LGM. Also, her mtDNA as well as Paglicci71 (also living at the end of LGM) was U5b. WHG must have originated somewhere near those two.

    I not sure that is true. At the end of the LGM we have the red Lady of El Miron, who already had a third WHG – as I am going to call that specific ancestry you mention – which indicates to me that at least a large part of the WHG clade must have lived not too far from Iberia during the LGM. Also, her mtDNA as well as Paglicci71 (also living at the end of LGM) was U5b. WHG must have originated somewhere near those two.

    i think my prose here is pretty confusing. what i’m saying is that most of the european groups 30-40 K did not contribute much to the 15 K groups. some did for sure. and, there is reasonable debate i think where the 15 K groups are mostly or not mostly indigenous to europe dating to LGM.

    i think the case is strongest in southern europe where non-WHG is clearly below 50%….

    Read More
  20. Davidski says: • Website

    The map is good because it’s not too specific.

    Basically, most of Europe is just a cul-de-sac that got overran repeatedly from the Balkans and the steppe. And this pattern stopped, or at least its impact stopped being important, when population densities in Europe became high enough to mitigate its genetic impact.

    So I’d say it’d be very difficult to measure with a high degree of accuracy how much ancestry Europeans have from pre-LGM Europe as opposed to nearby areas like Anatolia, western Siberia and Caucasus.

    If the Villabruna cluster came from the Balkans, which is something that looks likely, but far from certain, then the bulk of the forager ancestry in Europe is pre-LGM European, albeit a very specific subset of it.

    But foragers in Anatolia, and even down into the Levant, were very similar to the Vilabruna cluster, which complicates things a lot.

    The impression I get is that the political right goes to ridiculous lengths to emphasize the genetic origins of Europeans within the current borders of Europe, our homogeneity, and, in particular, Northwest European racial purity. Their views have largely been discredited now thanks to population genomics and ancient DNA.

    But at the same time, liberals, including it seems many scientists who are putting out papers on the topic, go to ridiculous lengths to emphasize that we’re all mixed, that there are no human races, or even anything of the sort, and Europeans are just recent migrants from Asia. They’re well on the way to discrediting themselves.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    appreciate this comment. i agree in broad strokes.
  21. Joe Walker says: • Website

    But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years.

    People might have been saying stuff like that 10-15 years ago but no one I know says stuff like that now. And 10-15 years ago, people were only saying stuff like this because some scientists were claiming that R1b was brought to Europe by the Aurignacians.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    well, it's great that you hang with a higher quality of net-nazi!
  22. @Joe Walker
    But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years.

    People might have been saying stuff like that 10-15 years ago but no one I know says stuff like that now. And 10-15 years ago, people were only saying stuff like this because some scientists were claiming that R1b was brought to Europe by the Aurignacians.

    well, it’s great that you hang with a higher quality of net-nazi!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marcus
    You been hanging around John De Nugent's people?
  23. @Davidski
    The map is good because it's not too specific.

    Basically, most of Europe is just a cul-de-sac that got overran repeatedly from the Balkans and the steppe. And this pattern stopped, or at least its impact stopped being important, when population densities in Europe became high enough to mitigate its genetic impact.

    So I'd say it'd be very difficult to measure with a high degree of accuracy how much ancestry Europeans have from pre-LGM Europe as opposed to nearby areas like Anatolia, western Siberia and Caucasus.

    If the Villabruna cluster came from the Balkans, which is something that looks likely, but far from certain, then the bulk of the forager ancestry in Europe is pre-LGM European, albeit a very specific subset of it.

    But foragers in Anatolia, and even down into the Levant, were very similar to the Vilabruna cluster, which complicates things a lot.

    The impression I get is that the political right goes to ridiculous lengths to emphasize the genetic origins of Europeans within the current borders of Europe, our homogeneity, and, in particular, Northwest European racial purity. Their views have largely been discredited now thanks to population genomics and ancient DNA.

    But at the same time, liberals, including it seems many scientists who are putting out papers on the topic, go to ridiculous lengths to emphasize that we're all mixed, that there are no human races, or even anything of the sort, and Europeans are just recent migrants from Asia. They're well on the way to discrediting themselves.

    appreciate this comment. i agree in broad strokes.

    Read More
  24. @German_reader
    "But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. "
    I assume this refers to various white nationalists...no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past. But personally I have to say it doesn't matter at all to me if "white" people have only existed for a few thousand years...I'm still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their "We're all immigrants/mongrels" line and exploit it as much as they can. I'm not looking forward to that.

    But personally I have to say it doesn’t matter at all to me if “white” people have only existed for a few thousand years…I’m still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.

    Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.
  25. Tim says:
    @Joe Walker
    But personally I have to say it doesn’t matter at all to me if “white” people have only existed for a few thousand years…I’m still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.

    Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist.

    “Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist.”

    Just wondering here… Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not ‘quite reasonable’?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered

    this is a useless assertion. it's true, and false.

    some things are subject to fashion/fad. e.g., foot-binding.

    but no human culture has human shit as a delicacy.
    , @backup

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.
     
    Cologne. Migration introduced a culture of rape games. Work and crime statistics also are good evidence.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.
     
    Why do you think China uses migration as weapon in Tibet and Xingjiang? It worked in a similar fashion in Inner-Mongolia, where the Mongols are an irrelevant minority.

    Migration has a potential devastating effect on societies. With such very dangerous societal phenomena the burden of proof lies entirely at those seeking it. So, I would like to see evidence it hasn't negative impact. Do you have any?

    , @backup
    Previous reaction assumes you made a typo and meant: hypothesize that immigration into Europe had a negative impact. Too late to edit.
    , @Roger Sweeny
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered.

    So true. People used to eat lots of salty, sugary, fatty foods. And they were pretty sedentary. But then they learned that this was making them fat and unhealthy. So they stopped all that. A little nagging and some diet plans and they turned it all around. You just can't find food like that any more, and nobody is obese or even overweight.

    Can you imagine how bad things would be if human desires weren't easily altered? People would still be eating that stuff. They wouldn't get much exercise. Cases of type-2 diabetes, osteoporosis, and heart disease wouldn't have stopped their rise and begun their historic decline.

    (You might find interesting Joseph Lieberman's The Story of the Human Body: Evolution, Health, and Disease.)

    , @Joe Walker
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?
  26. @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered

    this is a useless assertion. it’s true, and false.

    some things are subject to fashion/fad. e.g., foot-binding.

    but no human culture has human shit as a delicacy.

    Read More
    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
    Though from what I read in an article that was doing a criticism of the tendency of pornography to lean to extremes; excrement-consumption-as-fad may not be far off. Though humans have thus far held the line.

    Peace.
  27. backup says:
    @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Cologne. Migration introduced a culture of rape games. Work and crime statistics also are good evidence.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Why do you think China uses migration as weapon in Tibet and Xingjiang? It worked in a similar fashion in Inner-Mongolia, where the Mongols are an irrelevant minority.

    Migration has a potential devastating effect on societies. With such very dangerous societal phenomena the burden of proof lies entirely at those seeking it. So, I would like to see evidence it hasn’t negative impact. Do you have any?

    Read More
  28. backup says:
    @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Previous reaction assumes you made a typo and meant: hypothesize that immigration into Europe had a negative impact. Too late to edit.

    Read More
  29. BDoyle says:

    Shoot, we have 11,000 year-old Europeans right here in Texas!

    http://www.bosquemuseum.org/#!hornshelter/o7cdm

    Just kidding. It does take a while for this complicated science stuff to filter down to the masses. But if you ever want to take a day trip from Austin some time, this place is out west of Waco, and it’s really pretty country.

    Read More
  30. Talha says:
    @Razib Khan
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their “We’re all immigrants/mongrels” line and exploit it as much as they can. I’m not looking forward to that.


    maybe. i think it is important to set aside excessive reliance on scientific details in relation to these sorts of things.

    no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past.

    it's not only the dumb ones. i've seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from 'race realists.' kind of dumb to call yourself a realist if you don't keep up on our understanding of reality.

    Hey Razib,

    i’ve seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from ‘race realists.’

    That is what my intuition tells me from some of the stuff I read on these kinds of forums, but I am not literate in this field to forward a legitimate opinion.

    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    I can't really tell about the genetics since I don't have the scientific background, but my impression is a lot of those white identity guys have an extremely mythologised view of the past. This seems to be true even of the smarter ones; e.g. I recently read a bit of Richard Spencer's twitter account (out of interest in the alt right phenomenon) and he throws out such totally retarded comments as "Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity" (totally ignoring what is known about the ancient Greeks' intimate links to the Near East, the Greeks' and Romans' unflattering view of the northern barbarians, the emergence of Latin Christendom in the middle ages and the fairly late rise of the concept of Europe etc.) or "Europe is a nation". There seems to be little awareness of the complexities of historical change because everything is reduced to some supposedly unchanging racial essence reaching back into the mists of prehistoric times. Now I'm pretty far right and "racist" myself, but a lot of this really seems pretty stupid...like myth-making for identity politics.
    , @Razib Khan
    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.



    1) that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can't tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    3) that the history of the human race can be modeled as a series of unidirectional branching migrations out of africa. that's ok to a first approximation, but misleading in any fine-grained sense.
  31. Talha says:
    @Razib Khan
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered

    this is a useless assertion. it's true, and false.

    some things are subject to fashion/fad. e.g., foot-binding.

    but no human culture has human shit as a delicacy.

    Though from what I read in an article that was doing a criticism of the tendency of pornography to lean to extremes; excrement-consumption-as-fad may not be far off. Though humans have thus far held the line.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    Though from what I read in an article that was doing a criticism of the tendency of pornography to lean to extremes; excrement-consumption-as-fad may not be far off. Though humans have thus far held the line.



    power law. 1% of pr0n consumers generate 50% of the revenue. don't confuse the supply generated by extreme pervert demand with the typical male pervert.
  32. @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered.

    So true. People used to eat lots of salty, sugary, fatty foods. And they were pretty sedentary. But then they learned that this was making them fat and unhealthy. So they stopped all that. A little nagging and some diet plans and they turned it all around. You just can’t find food like that any more, and nobody is obese or even overweight.

    Can you imagine how bad things would be if human desires weren’t easily altered? People would still be eating that stuff. They wouldn’t get much exercise. Cases of type-2 diabetes, osteoporosis, and heart disease wouldn’t have stopped their rise and begun their historic decline.

    (You might find interesting Joseph Lieberman’s The Story of the Human Body: Evolution, Health, and Disease.)

    Read More
  33. @Tim
    "Quite reasonable. Unfortunately, being quite reasonable in this day and age will often get you labeled as a racist."

    Just wondering here... Are there any people with ordinary, common, idiotic, or completely unfounded beliefs that would actually say that their own ideas are not 'quite reasonable'?

    Quite reasonable is a pretty meaningless thing to say about opinions.

    If you want to hypothesize that limiting immigration into Europe has had a negative impact on your personal interests, then I would like to see evidence that that is true.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?



    they can be institutionalized and incentivized. unfortunately, rape is not one of those things that i would class under "strong human bias against" :-(
    , @Tim
    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.
  34. Marcus says:
    @Razib Khan
    well, it's great that you hang with a higher quality of net-nazi!

    You been hanging around John De Nugent’s people?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    no. didn't even know who that was. don't appreciate having to google net-nazis. what's the relationship btwn your comment and mine?
  35. @Marcus
    You been hanging around John De Nugent's people?

    no. didn’t even know who that was. don’t appreciate having to google net-nazis. what’s the relationship btwn your comment and mine?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marcus
    He's a prominent supporter of the idea of a very ancient Nordic race, even in the Americas (he calls them Solutreans) there are some funny interviews with him on youtube.
  36. @Joe Walker
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?

    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?

    they can be institutionalized and incentivized. unfortunately, rape is not one of those things that i would class under “strong human bias against” :-(

    Read More
  37. @Talha
    Though from what I read in an article that was doing a criticism of the tendency of pornography to lean to extremes; excrement-consumption-as-fad may not be far off. Though humans have thus far held the line.

    Peace.

    Though from what I read in an article that was doing a criticism of the tendency of pornography to lean to extremes; excrement-consumption-as-fad may not be far off. Though humans have thus far held the line.

    power law. 1% of pr0n consumers generate 50% of the revenue. don’t confuse the supply generated by extreme pervert demand with the typical male pervert.

    Read More
  38. Marcus says:
    @Razib Khan
    no. didn't even know who that was. don't appreciate having to google net-nazis. what's the relationship btwn your comment and mine?

    He’s a prominent supporter of the idea of a very ancient Nordic race, even in the Americas (he calls them Solutreans) there are some funny interviews with him on youtube.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Aaaaand...so I did a search on both this fellow and Spencer and here's what comes up:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/is-posh-npi-director-richard-bertrand-spencer-a-homosexual-homophile-or-really-straight/ (kid you not - first hit!)

    And with him and Jared Taylor:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/jared-taylors-jewish-concubine-denounces-him-as-a-cad-how-he-undermined-my-winnable-campaign-as-a-wn-for-sheriff-open-seat-in-a-98-white-obama-hating-appalachian-county/

    Yup - there you go - amazing example of White European unity! They seem about as united as the Syiran 'opposition' - ie. without Assad around, those guys would be even more at each others throats. Likewise, without darkies around...well...what exactly would these guys be united about?

    Peace.

  39. @Talha
    Hey Razib,

    i’ve seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from ‘race realists.’
     
    That is what my intuition tells me from some of the stuff I read on these kinds of forums, but I am not literate in this field to forward a legitimate opinion.

    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I'm kind of wondering if my hunches are right.

    Peace.

    I can’t really tell about the genetics since I don’t have the scientific background, but my impression is a lot of those white identity guys have an extremely mythologised view of the past. This seems to be true even of the smarter ones; e.g. I recently read a bit of Richard Spencer’s twitter account (out of interest in the alt right phenomenon) and he throws out such totally retarded comments as “Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity” (totally ignoring what is known about the ancient Greeks’ intimate links to the Near East, the Greeks’ and Romans’ unflattering view of the northern barbarians, the emergence of Latin Christendom in the middle ages and the fairly late rise of the concept of Europe etc.) or “Europe is a nation”. There seems to be little awareness of the complexities of historical change because everything is reduced to some supposedly unchanging racial essence reaching back into the mists of prehistoric times. Now I’m pretty far right and “racist” myself, but a lot of this really seems pretty stupid…like myth-making for identity politics.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he's smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn't know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it's myth-making.

    p.s. a friend of mine sent me a link to a richard spencer interview with kevin macdonald last year i think, pointing to a specific segment of the podcast talking about ancient genetics. kevin was telling richard how europeans 40,000 years ago were white, and those are the ancestors of europeans. that's wrong.
    , @Talha

    “Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity”
     
    LOL! How can someone say that with a straight face??? I guess unity includes Varangians raiding your coastline and carrying off your women and children to be sold in Byzantine and Arab markets!

    Yeah - and the Ummah of Islam has always been united and never fought among ourselves before the Europeans arrived - LOL!

    Peace.
  40. @German_reader
    I can't really tell about the genetics since I don't have the scientific background, but my impression is a lot of those white identity guys have an extremely mythologised view of the past. This seems to be true even of the smarter ones; e.g. I recently read a bit of Richard Spencer's twitter account (out of interest in the alt right phenomenon) and he throws out such totally retarded comments as "Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity" (totally ignoring what is known about the ancient Greeks' intimate links to the Near East, the Greeks' and Romans' unflattering view of the northern barbarians, the emergence of Latin Christendom in the middle ages and the fairly late rise of the concept of Europe etc.) or "Europe is a nation". There seems to be little awareness of the complexities of historical change because everything is reduced to some supposedly unchanging racial essence reaching back into the mists of prehistoric times. Now I'm pretty far right and "racist" myself, but a lot of this really seems pretty stupid...like myth-making for identity politics.

    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he’s smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn’t know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it’s myth-making.

    p.s. a friend of mine sent me a link to a richard spencer interview with kevin macdonald last year i think, pointing to a specific segment of the podcast talking about ancient genetics. kevin was telling richard how europeans 40,000 years ago were white, and those are the ancestors of europeans. that’s wrong.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Razib,

    I was just thinking about this and it hit me. Maybe I'm not giving this ideology enough credit. You said the man is smart, perhaps he is also smart enough to know the strength of a powerful narrative. In your article, you point out the fact that most people (even intelligent and educated) aren't aware of a lot of these details from a scientific genetics standpoint. I have also noticed that the vast majority of people don't even know their own history; I can often run circles around my fellow Americans on this as they can't be bothered to know the significance of, say, the Potomac vs Appomattox.

    That being the case, a frustrated people are ripe for an origin myth or a revival narrative. It is the inclusion of the normal man-on-the-street that is necessary to get things moving in the direction you want. Boots that take marching orders.

    To present a relevant contemporary case; the recruitment of Daesh. It is known to people who track this stuff that their best recruits are those that are 'fresh slates' - 'tabula rasa', so to speak. They are so much easier to present with a utopian vision of a unified pious caliphate that needs to be revived - historical facts of 13 intervening centuries be damned.

    "According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just "basic" knowledge of Shariah - the lowest possible choice....However, despite the religious justification that IS uses for suicide missions, "those with the most religious knowledge within the organization itself are the least likely to volunteer to be suicide bombers," the study found."
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_ISLAMIC_STATE_PREYING_ON_IGNORANCE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

    Thoughts?

    Peace.
    , @Twinkie

    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he’s smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn’t know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it’s myth-making.
     
    I don't know any of these men firsthand, but I suspect - simply from what I read and saw - that "white nationalists" such as Jared Taylor and Richard Spencer and even ostensible (social) scientists such as Philippe Rushton are/were gifted propagandists who knew full well that what they were selling was not 100% accurate, but persisted in making their flawed claims because they sold well to their target audiences.

    Mind you, I am sympathetic to some, perhaps even many, of their political aims (e.g. I am opposed to mass immigration to the United States; even though I am not white, I think it's unhealthy for the U.S. as I have come to love to become minority white; I hanker for the days of largely, though not exclusively, Christian public/moral milieu - yes, I know about the pagan/atheist/Christian revivalist split among white nationlists; etc.).

    Nonetheless, even though I may share some of their aims, because I am a non-white American assimilationist (or "citizenist" per Steven Sailer), their white separatism/race purism is a bridge much too far for me (and even if I were white, I think their stated end goals, if achieved, would be destructive). And I suspect, IN PRACTICE (given their personal histories, associates, and residential locations), their conceptual race purism is also personally unworkable for these white nationalist thought leaders. So I think they may not buy their own stated ideas 100% either.

    Afterall, the concept of whites - like others - as a relatively recent hybrid race doesn't catch the imagination and raise the fervor of the white nationalist rank-and-file as much as that of a very ancient pure race isolate that is being innundated by a sea of mongrelized black/brown "Others."
  41. @Talha
    Hey Razib,

    i’ve seen in my google search RSS feed some scientifically unsupportable positions from ‘race realists.’
     
    That is what my intuition tells me from some of the stuff I read on these kinds of forums, but I am not literate in this field to forward a legitimate opinion.

    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I'm kind of wondering if my hunches are right.

    Peace.

    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.

    1) that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can’t tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    3) that the history of the human race can be modeled as a series of unidirectional branching migrations out of africa. that’s ok to a first approximation, but misleading in any fine-grained sense.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Awesome! The first one is definitely a logical fallacy I noticed in their arguments. Your other two points make sense unless you take ancient human history to be approximated by Lord of the Rings or such.

    Thanks!
    , @German_reader
    "that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can’t tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case."

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That's pretty strange, didn't know that view is common.
    , @Matt_
    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    Apparently, this is true enough from just the cranial record, without even getting into soft tissue or the wider skeleton:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=6cI3DSdR7gIC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA529#v=onepage&q&f=false

    Indeed, many aspects of skull shape that differ among populations tend to be quite recent in origin, so that most human skulls dated between roughly 150,000 and 10,000 years ago are more similar to other like-aged skulls than they are to those of historic populations, regardless of geographic location... Ths fact means we cannot use most cranial variations to reconstruct reliable phylogenies beyond 10,000 years ago in any one region, and it raises questions about whether similar features can be used to make reliable inferences over much greater spans of time"

    (Taken from "Evolution of the Human Head").
  42. Talha says:
    @German_reader
    I can't really tell about the genetics since I don't have the scientific background, but my impression is a lot of those white identity guys have an extremely mythologised view of the past. This seems to be true even of the smarter ones; e.g. I recently read a bit of Richard Spencer's twitter account (out of interest in the alt right phenomenon) and he throws out such totally retarded comments as "Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity" (totally ignoring what is known about the ancient Greeks' intimate links to the Near East, the Greeks' and Romans' unflattering view of the northern barbarians, the emergence of Latin Christendom in the middle ages and the fairly late rise of the concept of Europe etc.) or "Europe is a nation". There seems to be little awareness of the complexities of historical change because everything is reduced to some supposedly unchanging racial essence reaching back into the mists of prehistoric times. Now I'm pretty far right and "racist" myself, but a lot of this really seems pretty stupid...like myth-making for identity politics.

    “Europe has always been unified, even before Christianity”

    LOL! How can someone say that with a straight face??? I guess unity includes Varangians raiding your coastline and carrying off your women and children to be sold in Byzantine and Arab markets!

    Yeah – and the Ummah of Islam has always been united and never fought among ourselves before the Europeans arrived – LOL!

    Peace.

    Read More
  43. Talha says:
    @Razib Khan
    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.



    1) that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can't tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    3) that the history of the human race can be modeled as a series of unidirectional branching migrations out of africa. that's ok to a first approximation, but misleading in any fine-grained sense.

    Awesome! The first one is definitely a logical fallacy I noticed in their arguments. Your other two points make sense unless you take ancient human history to be approximated by Lord of the Rings or such.

    Thanks!

    Read More
  44. Talha says:
    @Razib Khan
    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he's smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn't know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it's myth-making.

    p.s. a friend of mine sent me a link to a richard spencer interview with kevin macdonald last year i think, pointing to a specific segment of the podcast talking about ancient genetics. kevin was telling richard how europeans 40,000 years ago were white, and those are the ancestors of europeans. that's wrong.

    Hey Razib,

    I was just thinking about this and it hit me. Maybe I’m not giving this ideology enough credit. You said the man is smart, perhaps he is also smart enough to know the strength of a powerful narrative. In your article, you point out the fact that most people (even intelligent and educated) aren’t aware of a lot of these details from a scientific genetics standpoint. I have also noticed that the vast majority of people don’t even know their own history; I can often run circles around my fellow Americans on this as they can’t be bothered to know the significance of, say, the Potomac vs Appomattox.

    That being the case, a frustrated people are ripe for an origin myth or a revival narrative. It is the inclusion of the normal man-on-the-street that is necessary to get things moving in the direction you want. Boots that take marching orders.

    To present a relevant contemporary case; the recruitment of Daesh. It is known to people who track this stuff that their best recruits are those that are ‘fresh slates’ – ‘tabula rasa’, so to speak. They are so much easier to present with a utopian vision of a unified pious caliphate that needs to be revived – historical facts of 13 intervening centuries be damned.

    “According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just “basic” knowledge of Shariah – the lowest possible choice….However, despite the religious justification that IS uses for suicide missions, “those with the most religious knowledge within the organization itself are the least likely to volunteer to be suicide bombers,” the study found.”

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_ISLAMIC_STATE_PREYING_ON_IGNORANCE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

    Thoughts?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    Maybe Richard Spencer and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi read The Triple Package, and were inspired by it?:

    By definition, superiority is "a deeply internalized belief in your group's specialness, exceptionality, or superiority." The authors claim that this element is derived from various sources. First, from a religious perspective, Mormons are introduced to their people's magnificent history and civilization; Second, from a social viewpoint, Nigerian immigrants belonging to the prestige entrepreneurial Igbo people; or a mixture of both like Jews as “a moral people, a people of law and intellect, a people of survivors.” [1] [...] The authors add that a superiority complex and insecurity are not mutually exclusive. The coexistence of both qualities "lies at the heart of every Triple Package culture", producing a need to be recognized and a "I'll show them" mentality because the superiority a person has is not acknowledge by the society. Namely, immigrants suffer status collapse though moving up the economic ladder. Thus, this circumstance results in anxiety but also "a drive and jaw-dropping accomplishment." [1]
     
    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Package#Thesis

    Engineers of Jihad:
    The Curious Connection between Violent Extremism and Education
    Diego Gambetta & Steffen Hertog

    http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10656.html

    they find that a disproportionate share of Islamist radicals come from an engineering background, and that Islamist and right-wing extremism have more in common than either does with left-wing extremism, in which engineers are absent while social scientists and humanities students are prominent.
     
  45. @Razib Khan
    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.



    1) that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can't tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    3) that the history of the human race can be modeled as a series of unidirectional branching migrations out of africa. that's ok to a first approximation, but misleading in any fine-grained sense.

    “that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can’t tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.”

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common.

    Read More
    • Replies: @syonredux

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common.
     
    I've run into quite a few Black Nationalist types who believe it. And that's not the craziest of their beliefs. For example, lots of them believe that the ancient Olmec were in contact with West Africa. Their evidence? Those Olmec giant head statues have thick-looking lips and flat noses.....


    If you want a taste of that world, try watching the Hidden Colors documentaries.
    , @Jefferson
    "You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common."

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.

  46. Talha says:
    @Marcus
    He's a prominent supporter of the idea of a very ancient Nordic race, even in the Americas (he calls them Solutreans) there are some funny interviews with him on youtube.

    Aaaaand…so I did a search on both this fellow and Spencer and here’s what comes up:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/is-posh-npi-director-richard-bertrand-spencer-a-homosexual-homophile-or-really-straight/ (kid you not – first hit!)

    And with him and Jared Taylor:

    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/jared-taylors-jewish-concubine-denounces-him-as-a-cad-how-he-undermined-my-winnable-campaign-as-a-wn-for-sheriff-open-seat-in-a-98-white-obama-hating-appalachian-county/

    Yup – there you go – amazing example of White European unity! They seem about as united as the Syiran ‘opposition’ – ie. without Assad around, those guys would be even more at each others throats. Likewise, without darkies around…well…what exactly would these guys be united about?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marcus
    Yeah, the far-right in the US has always been characterized by squabbling over their breadcrumbs: constant disagreement over tactics, the role of women, homosexuality, religion (mainly neo-pagan vs Christian revivalist, though there are plenty of other opinions), whether certain groups are "acceptable" as white, if Jews are the main enemy, etc. Jared Taylor is frequently criticized for not discussing the Jewish issue, and even inviting Jewish speakers to his conferences.
    , @iffen
    Likewise, without darkies around…well…what exactly would these guys be united about?

    I am unaware of any ideology, religion or political movement that has fallen from the sky in an intact, complete and closed form. Whether the group(s) is white or European, or not, does not add much to the conversation. :)
  47. Randal says:
    @German_reader
    Yes exactly, if I understand correctly, the Indo-European invasion probably wasn't that fun for the first farmers. But that's not what the media will probably concentrate on...

    But that’s not what the media will probably concentrate on…

    Much as the naive immigrationists, who refer to (post Columbus) American history to support the idea that the US is a nation built on mass immigration, rather miss the point that the experience was not a good one for the indigenous pre-Columbus populations.

    Read More
  48. Marcus says:
    @Talha
    Aaaaand...so I did a search on both this fellow and Spencer and here's what comes up:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/is-posh-npi-director-richard-bertrand-spencer-a-homosexual-homophile-or-really-straight/ (kid you not - first hit!)

    And with him and Jared Taylor:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/jared-taylors-jewish-concubine-denounces-him-as-a-cad-how-he-undermined-my-winnable-campaign-as-a-wn-for-sheriff-open-seat-in-a-98-white-obama-hating-appalachian-county/

    Yup - there you go - amazing example of White European unity! They seem about as united as the Syiran 'opposition' - ie. without Assad around, those guys would be even more at each others throats. Likewise, without darkies around...well...what exactly would these guys be united about?

    Peace.

    Yeah, the far-right in the US has always been characterized by squabbling over their breadcrumbs: constant disagreement over tactics, the role of women, homosexuality, religion (mainly neo-pagan vs Christian revivalist, though there are plenty of other opinions), whether certain groups are “acceptable” as white, if Jews are the main enemy, etc. Jared Taylor is frequently criticized for not discussing the Jewish issue, and even inviting Jewish speakers to his conferences.

    Read More
  49. syonredux says:
    @German_reader
    "that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can’t tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case."

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That's pretty strange, didn't know that view is common.

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common.

    I’ve run into quite a few Black Nationalist types who believe it. And that’s not the craziest of their beliefs. For example, lots of them believe that the ancient Olmec were in contact with West Africa. Their evidence? Those Olmec giant head statues have thick-looking lips and flat noses…..

    If you want a taste of that world, try watching the Hidden Colors documentaries.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marcus
    Heard of Black Athena? Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.
  50. Marcus says:
    @syonredux

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common.
     
    I've run into quite a few Black Nationalist types who believe it. And that's not the craziest of their beliefs. For example, lots of them believe that the ancient Olmec were in contact with West Africa. Their evidence? Those Olmec giant head statues have thick-looking lips and flat noses.....


    If you want a taste of that world, try watching the Hidden Colors documentaries.

    Heard of Black Athena? Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.

    Read More
    • Replies: @syonredux

    Heard of Black Athena?
     
    Black Athena. Dear God yes.I read it some years back, and it was a laugh riot. Bernal's bizarre etymologies were particularly hilarious.

    Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.
     
    Indeed. Mirror images.
    , @Joe Walker
    But you have to admit that the achievements of Northern Europeans such as the Germans have been greater than those of black Africans.
  51. FKA Max says:
    @Talha
    Hey Razib,

    I was just thinking about this and it hit me. Maybe I'm not giving this ideology enough credit. You said the man is smart, perhaps he is also smart enough to know the strength of a powerful narrative. In your article, you point out the fact that most people (even intelligent and educated) aren't aware of a lot of these details from a scientific genetics standpoint. I have also noticed that the vast majority of people don't even know their own history; I can often run circles around my fellow Americans on this as they can't be bothered to know the significance of, say, the Potomac vs Appomattox.

    That being the case, a frustrated people are ripe for an origin myth or a revival narrative. It is the inclusion of the normal man-on-the-street that is necessary to get things moving in the direction you want. Boots that take marching orders.

    To present a relevant contemporary case; the recruitment of Daesh. It is known to people who track this stuff that their best recruits are those that are 'fresh slates' - 'tabula rasa', so to speak. They are so much easier to present with a utopian vision of a unified pious caliphate that needs to be revived - historical facts of 13 intervening centuries be damned.

    "According to the documents, which were acquired by the Syrian opposition site Zaman al-Wasl and shared with the AP, 70 percent of recruits were listed as having just "basic" knowledge of Shariah - the lowest possible choice....However, despite the religious justification that IS uses for suicide missions, "those with the most religious knowledge within the organization itself are the least likely to volunteer to be suicide bombers," the study found."
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_ISLAMIC_STATE_PREYING_ON_IGNORANCE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

    Thoughts?

    Peace.

    Maybe Richard Spencer and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi read The Triple Package, and were inspired by it?:

    By definition, superiority is “a deeply internalized belief in your group’s specialness, exceptionality, or superiority.” The authors claim that this element is derived from various sources. First, from a religious perspective, Mormons are introduced to their people’s magnificent history and civilization; Second, from a social viewpoint, Nigerian immigrants belonging to the prestige entrepreneurial Igbo people; or a mixture of both like Jews as “a moral people, a people of law and intellect, a people of survivors.” [1] [...] The authors add that a superiority complex and insecurity are not mutually exclusive. The coexistence of both qualities “lies at the heart of every Triple Package culture”, producing a need to be recognized and a “I’ll show them” mentality because the superiority a person has is not acknowledge by the society. Namely, immigrants suffer status collapse though moving up the economic ladder. Thus, this circumstance results in anxiety but also “a drive and jaw-dropping accomplishment.” [1]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Package#Thesis

    Engineers of Jihad:
    The Curious Connection between Violent Extremism and Education
    Diego Gambetta & Steffen Hertog

    http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10656.html

    they find that a disproportionate share of Islamist radicals come from an engineering background, and that Islamist and right-wing extremism have more in common than either does with left-wing extremism, in which engineers are absent while social scientists and humanities students are prominent.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Very interesting thesis (I agree with its overall view) and thanks for the links.

    Peace.
  52. syonredux says:
    @Marcus
    Heard of Black Athena? Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.

    Heard of Black Athena?

    Black Athena. Dear God yes.I read it some years back, and it was a laugh riot. Bernal’s bizarre etymologies were particularly hilarious.

    Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.

    Indeed. Mirror images.

    Read More
  53. iffen says:

    so i think it’s myth-making

    This seems to be true even of the smarter ones

    So what would you do if you were convinced that identity politics was the only way to long-term success?

    Read More
  54. Talha says:
    @FKA Max
    Maybe Richard Spencer and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi read The Triple Package, and were inspired by it?:

    By definition, superiority is "a deeply internalized belief in your group's specialness, exceptionality, or superiority." The authors claim that this element is derived from various sources. First, from a religious perspective, Mormons are introduced to their people's magnificent history and civilization; Second, from a social viewpoint, Nigerian immigrants belonging to the prestige entrepreneurial Igbo people; or a mixture of both like Jews as “a moral people, a people of law and intellect, a people of survivors.” [1] [...] The authors add that a superiority complex and insecurity are not mutually exclusive. The coexistence of both qualities "lies at the heart of every Triple Package culture", producing a need to be recognized and a "I'll show them" mentality because the superiority a person has is not acknowledge by the society. Namely, immigrants suffer status collapse though moving up the economic ladder. Thus, this circumstance results in anxiety but also "a drive and jaw-dropping accomplishment." [1]
     
    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Triple_Package#Thesis

    Engineers of Jihad:
    The Curious Connection between Violent Extremism and Education
    Diego Gambetta & Steffen Hertog

    http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10656.html

    they find that a disproportionate share of Islamist radicals come from an engineering background, and that Islamist and right-wing extremism have more in common than either does with left-wing extremism, in which engineers are absent while social scientists and humanities students are prominent.
     

    Very interesting thesis (I agree with its overall view) and thanks for the links.

    Peace.

    Read More
  55. Twinkie says:
    @Razib Khan
    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he's smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn't know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it's myth-making.

    p.s. a friend of mine sent me a link to a richard spencer interview with kevin macdonald last year i think, pointing to a specific segment of the podcast talking about ancient genetics. kevin was telling richard how europeans 40,000 years ago were white, and those are the ancestors of europeans. that's wrong.

    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he’s smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn’t know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it’s myth-making.

    I don’t know any of these men firsthand, but I suspect – simply from what I read and saw – that “white nationalists” such as Jared Taylor and Richard Spencer and even ostensible (social) scientists such as Philippe Rushton are/were gifted propagandists who knew full well that what they were selling was not 100% accurate, but persisted in making their flawed claims because they sold well to their target audiences.

    Mind you, I am sympathetic to some, perhaps even many, of their political aims (e.g. I am opposed to mass immigration to the United States; even though I am not white, I think it’s unhealthy for the U.S. as I have come to love to become minority white; I hanker for the days of largely, though not exclusively, Christian public/moral milieu – yes, I know about the pagan/atheist/Christian revivalist split among white nationlists; etc.).

    Nonetheless, even though I may share some of their aims, because I am a non-white American assimilationist (or “citizenist” per Steven Sailer), their white separatism/race purism is a bridge much too far for me (and even if I were white, I think their stated end goals, if achieved, would be destructive). And I suspect, IN PRACTICE (given their personal histories, associates, and residential locations), their conceptual race purism is also personally unworkable for these white nationalist thought leaders. So I think they may not buy their own stated ideas 100% either.

    Afterall, the concept of whites – like others – as a relatively recent hybrid race doesn’t catch the imagination and raise the fervor of the white nationalist rank-and-file as much as that of a very ancient pure race isolate that is being innundated by a sea of mongrelized black/brown “Others.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    I think that the more important question is not whether they believe their own propaganda, but whether the propaganda is effective.
    , @Marcus
    I used to be on the more racialist side of the debate, but now I find myself agreeing with Sailer et al. though I do find it disheartening to see even well-off Asians, etc. boarding the racial grievance gravy train.
  56. backup says:
    @Razib Khan
    probably central europe though. oase is from romania

    http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2015/06/oase-1-early-modern-human-from-romania.html

    though sheets expanded up to LGM 20 K BP.

    The Bohunician culture is proposed to be modern human. It would push back the time to around 50.000 ya. Since they lived in an area which is connected to both Western-Europe and the area was tundra and shrubs back then, I am wondering if they may have been related to the introduction of Kostenki 14 related ancestry.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/106/38/16040.full

    Read More
    • Replies: @backup
    " area both connected to Western Europe and the steppe in the East", that should have read
  57. backup says:
    @backup
    The Bohunician culture is proposed to be modern human. It would push back the time to around 50.000 ya. Since they lived in an area which is connected to both Western-Europe and the area was tundra and shrubs back then, I am wondering if they may have been related to the introduction of Kostenki 14 related ancestry.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/106/38/16040.full

    area both connected to Western Europe and the steppe in the East“, that should have read

    Read More
  58. Tim says:
    @Joe Walker
    Science has overwhelmingly shown that human desires and opinions are easily altered. And I would wager that the society regarded as desirable by many actually arose largely through immigration or influence from outside regions.

    What about the recent rapes by migrants in Germany? Are you saying that it is possible to make such criminal acts seem desirable?

    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @backup

    and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.
     
    If you verse like that it may be right. But if you break it down by ethnicity not even close. Unless Germany is very, very different from its surrounding countries.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries).
     
    Not that organized and that scale.
    , @German_reader
    "What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown."

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won't write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.
    , @Joe Walker
    If anything the European media tends to be pro-migrant so it is more likely that the media is downplaying, not overblowing, the level of migrant crime in Germany.
    , @colm
    You mean. 'Germans' of Middle Eastern and other extraction, right?
  59. Is is right to assume that most of the historic / pre-historic demographic disruptions talked about in the article where in part caused by violence? I thought about that it is maybe possible that each and every human on earth only lives because his ancestors committed something to another local groups which nowadays is known as genocide.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Erik,

    I don't know if you are a fan of the Dune novels by Herbert, but he had a very interesting theory that he expounds upon in his books. Namely, that periodic violent demographic explosions (in his case, the galactic jihad that Mu'adhib kicks off in the Fremen) are built into the human species as a means to keep the genetic material fresh and to ward off stagnancy. In the books it is posited that we could not avoid these since we are only contemporaneous minor actors in the millinnea-long saga of survival of the fittest - and to avoid them leads to its own form of detriment*.

    I don't believe this to be the case, of course, but thought it was an interesting perspective.

    Peace.
  60. iffen says:
    @Twinkie

    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he’s smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn’t know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it’s myth-making.
     
    I don't know any of these men firsthand, but I suspect - simply from what I read and saw - that "white nationalists" such as Jared Taylor and Richard Spencer and even ostensible (social) scientists such as Philippe Rushton are/were gifted propagandists who knew full well that what they were selling was not 100% accurate, but persisted in making their flawed claims because they sold well to their target audiences.

    Mind you, I am sympathetic to some, perhaps even many, of their political aims (e.g. I am opposed to mass immigration to the United States; even though I am not white, I think it's unhealthy for the U.S. as I have come to love to become minority white; I hanker for the days of largely, though not exclusively, Christian public/moral milieu - yes, I know about the pagan/atheist/Christian revivalist split among white nationlists; etc.).

    Nonetheless, even though I may share some of their aims, because I am a non-white American assimilationist (or "citizenist" per Steven Sailer), their white separatism/race purism is a bridge much too far for me (and even if I were white, I think their stated end goals, if achieved, would be destructive). And I suspect, IN PRACTICE (given their personal histories, associates, and residential locations), their conceptual race purism is also personally unworkable for these white nationalist thought leaders. So I think they may not buy their own stated ideas 100% either.

    Afterall, the concept of whites - like others - as a relatively recent hybrid race doesn't catch the imagination and raise the fervor of the white nationalist rank-and-file as much as that of a very ancient pure race isolate that is being innundated by a sea of mongrelized black/brown "Others."

    I think that the more important question is not whether they believe their own propaganda, but whether the propaganda is effective.

    Read More
  61. backup says:
    @Tim
    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.

    and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    If you verse like that it may be right. But if you break it down by ethnicity not even close. Unless Germany is very, very different from its surrounding countries.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries).

    Not that organized and that scale.

    Read More
  62. backup says:

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown.

    I live in a neighbouring country and I would say you downplay the problems.

    Read More
  63. iffen says:
    @Talha
    Aaaaand...so I did a search on both this fellow and Spencer and here's what comes up:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/is-posh-npi-director-richard-bertrand-spencer-a-homosexual-homophile-or-really-straight/ (kid you not - first hit!)

    And with him and Jared Taylor:
    https://www.johndenugent.com/english/jared-taylors-jewish-concubine-denounces-him-as-a-cad-how-he-undermined-my-winnable-campaign-as-a-wn-for-sheriff-open-seat-in-a-98-white-obama-hating-appalachian-county/

    Yup - there you go - amazing example of White European unity! They seem about as united as the Syiran 'opposition' - ie. without Assad around, those guys would be even more at each others throats. Likewise, without darkies around...well...what exactly would these guys be united about?

    Peace.

    Likewise, without darkies around…well…what exactly would these guys be united about?

    I am unaware of any ideology, religion or political movement that has fallen from the sky in an intact, complete and closed form. Whether the group(s) is white or European, or not, does not add much to the conversation. :)

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  64. @Tim
    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.

    “What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown.”

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won’t write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.

    Read More
    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @syonredux

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won’t write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.
     
    Yeah. Karlin did a good post on this topic:

    Latest example: The German Federal Criminal Office compiles data on “nationality of suspect” across different criminal categories current up to 2014 (see Table 62). In the last year before the Great Migration, immigrants – accounting for less than 10% of the population – were responsible for 18% of rapes and 30% of murders.
     

    The current wave of migrants into Germany and Europe tend to have rape rates around 5x the native German norm according to its own police statistics. Moreover, this refers to presumably established migrant communities – with relatively more women and older people – whereas the current influx has generally been acknowledged to be primarily composed of young males. This means it is entirely plausible for even relatively “small” numbers of those immigrants (the million or so who came into Germany in 2015) to have a hugely disproportionate impact on crime rates that would be noticeable even in a country of 80 million.
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/
    , @Tim
    I have been warned for as long as I can remember about taking my children or girlfriends to this, and to the Rosen Montag events.

    Always before women felt uncomfortable, but that it was 'expected'. Once it became okay to point to the closest person with dark skin, everyone said it was them.

    There was zero evidence. If you turn around and 97% of people are white germans and 3 have darker skin, then it was probably them.

    Plus, even when people are very seriously attacked or raped, it is much more likely to get a positive ID or conviction when they have distinctive features that stand out from others in the community. And women would be more likely to report it.
  65. Marcus says:
    @Twinkie

    i knew the pre-WN richard spencer (we lost touch after his ideological changes ~2010). he’s smart. i have a hard time believing he doesn’t know the latest research, which was evening starting to be evident back then. so i think it’s myth-making.
     
    I don't know any of these men firsthand, but I suspect - simply from what I read and saw - that "white nationalists" such as Jared Taylor and Richard Spencer and even ostensible (social) scientists such as Philippe Rushton are/were gifted propagandists who knew full well that what they were selling was not 100% accurate, but persisted in making their flawed claims because they sold well to their target audiences.

    Mind you, I am sympathetic to some, perhaps even many, of their political aims (e.g. I am opposed to mass immigration to the United States; even though I am not white, I think it's unhealthy for the U.S. as I have come to love to become minority white; I hanker for the days of largely, though not exclusively, Christian public/moral milieu - yes, I know about the pagan/atheist/Christian revivalist split among white nationlists; etc.).

    Nonetheless, even though I may share some of their aims, because I am a non-white American assimilationist (or "citizenist" per Steven Sailer), their white separatism/race purism is a bridge much too far for me (and even if I were white, I think their stated end goals, if achieved, would be destructive). And I suspect, IN PRACTICE (given their personal histories, associates, and residential locations), their conceptual race purism is also personally unworkable for these white nationalist thought leaders. So I think they may not buy their own stated ideas 100% either.

    Afterall, the concept of whites - like others - as a relatively recent hybrid race doesn't catch the imagination and raise the fervor of the white nationalist rank-and-file as much as that of a very ancient pure race isolate that is being innundated by a sea of mongrelized black/brown "Others."

    I used to be on the more racialist side of the debate, but now I find myself agreeing with Sailer et al. though I do find it disheartening to see even well-off Asians, etc. boarding the racial grievance gravy train.

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  66. Talha says:
    @Erik Sieven
    Is is right to assume that most of the historic / pre-historic demographic disruptions talked about in the article where in part caused by violence? I thought about that it is maybe possible that each and every human on earth only lives because his ancestors committed something to another local groups which nowadays is known as genocide.

    Hey Erik,

    I don’t know if you are a fan of the Dune novels by Herbert, but he had a very interesting theory that he expounds upon in his books. Namely, that periodic violent demographic explosions (in his case, the galactic jihad that Mu’adhib kicks off in the Fremen) are built into the human species as a means to keep the genetic material fresh and to ward off stagnancy. In the books it is posited that we could not avoid these since we are only contemporaneous minor actors in the millinnea-long saga of survival of the fittest – and to avoid them leads to its own form of detriment*.

    I don’t believe this to be the case, of course, but thought it was an interesting perspective.

    Peace.

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  67. syonredux says:
    @German_reader
    "What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown."

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won't write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won’t write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.

    Yeah. Karlin did a good post on this topic:

    Latest example: The German Federal Criminal Office compiles data on “nationality of suspect” across different criminal categories current up to 2014 (see Table 62). In the last year before the Great Migration, immigrants – accounting for less than 10% of the population – were responsible for 18% of rapes and 30% of murders.

    The current wave of migrants into Germany and Europe tend to have rape rates around 5x the native German norm according to its own police statistics. Moreover, this refers to presumably established migrant communities – with relatively more women and older people – whereas the current influx has generally been acknowledged to be primarily composed of young males. This means it is entirely plausible for even relatively “small” numbers of those immigrants (the million or so who came into Germany in 2015) to have a hugely disproportionate impact on crime rates that would be noticeable even in a country of 80 million.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/

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    • Replies: @Tim
    Several of the comments here show that the authors are either racists (that maybe/probably don't realize it), or totally suckers for sensational media, or are just sheep.

    The link above literally has the source for the tables of crime statistics on immigrants listed as from "One enterprising fellow who presumably prefers to remain anonymous"!
  68. Tim says:
    @syonredux

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won’t write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.
     
    Yeah. Karlin did a good post on this topic:

    Latest example: The German Federal Criminal Office compiles data on “nationality of suspect” across different criminal categories current up to 2014 (see Table 62). In the last year before the Great Migration, immigrants – accounting for less than 10% of the population – were responsible for 18% of rapes and 30% of murders.
     

    The current wave of migrants into Germany and Europe tend to have rape rates around 5x the native German norm according to its own police statistics. Moreover, this refers to presumably established migrant communities – with relatively more women and older people – whereas the current influx has generally been acknowledged to be primarily composed of young males. This means it is entirely plausible for even relatively “small” numbers of those immigrants (the million or so who came into Germany in 2015) to have a hugely disproportionate impact on crime rates that would be noticeable even in a country of 80 million.
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/

    Several of the comments here show that the authors are either racists (that maybe/probably don’t realize it), or totally suckers for sensational media, or are just sheep.

    The link above literally has the source for the tables of crime statistics on immigrants listed as from “One enterprising fellow who presumably prefers to remain anonymous”!

    Read More
    • Replies: @syonredux

    Several of the comments here show that the authors are either racists (that maybe/probably don’t realize it), or totally suckers for sensational media, or are just sheep.

    The link above literally has the source for the tables of crime statistics on immigrants listed as from “One enterprising fellow who presumably prefers to remain anonymous”!
     
    If you have any stats showing that Muslim immigrants in Europe have low rates for rape, feel free to tell us.
  69. @Tim
    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.

    If anything the European media tends to be pro-migrant so it is more likely that the media is downplaying, not overblowing, the level of migrant crime in Germany.

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  70. @Marcus
    Heard of Black Athena? Afrocentrism and the older (but still common) Nordicism are two sides of one coin in many ways.

    But you have to admit that the achievements of Northern Europeans such as the Germans have been greater than those of black Africans.

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  71. Tim says:
    @German_reader
    "What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown."

    Nothing remotely like the Cologne assaults had ever happened in post-war Germany before 2015, this is simply ridiculous. Won't write more since this is off-topic but your level of head in the sand denialism astounds me.

    I have been warned for as long as I can remember about taking my children or girlfriends to this, and to the Rosen Montag events.

    Always before women felt uncomfortable, but that it was ‘expected’. Once it became okay to point to the closest person with dark skin, everyone said it was them.

    There was zero evidence. If you turn around and 97% of people are white germans and 3 have darker skin, then it was probably them.

    Plus, even when people are very seriously attacked or raped, it is much more likely to get a positive ID or conviction when they have distinctive features that stand out from others in the community. And women would be more likely to report it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    i don't want to get too sidetracked on this discussion, as i am not too exorcised either way. but, one way to explore the issue is the experiences of people in the nations of origin. if you identify a dark skinned man as groping you in egypt it's not going to be ascertainment bias because of ... bias.

    from what i have heard sexual harassment in public places of women is a bigger issue in MENA & s. asia than it is in europe (or e. asia or sub-saharan africa or latin america). this also happens to be the region of the world with the most 'classically' patriarchal attitudes (not that e. asia, latin america, and sub-saharan africa are not patriarchal, but there are some distinctions here to be made).

    and, contrary to what some might say it's not racialized, it's opportunistic.

  72. get back on topic. or i’ll close the thread.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Marcus
    Thanks, my one gripe with moderation on this site is that threads go wildly off topic so fast. Also I saw a commenter somewhere else bring up "40,000 years of white race," I wonder where this meme originated..
  73. syonredux says:
    @Tim
    Several of the comments here show that the authors are either racists (that maybe/probably don't realize it), or totally suckers for sensational media, or are just sheep.

    The link above literally has the source for the tables of crime statistics on immigrants listed as from "One enterprising fellow who presumably prefers to remain anonymous"!

    Several of the comments here show that the authors are either racists (that maybe/probably don’t realize it), or totally suckers for sensational media, or are just sheep.

    The link above literally has the source for the tables of crime statistics on immigrants listed as from “One enterprising fellow who presumably prefers to remain anonymous”!

    If you have any stats showing that Muslim immigrants in Europe have low rates for rape, feel free to tell us.

    Read More
  74. @Tim
    I have been warned for as long as I can remember about taking my children or girlfriends to this, and to the Rosen Montag events.

    Always before women felt uncomfortable, but that it was 'expected'. Once it became okay to point to the closest person with dark skin, everyone said it was them.

    There was zero evidence. If you turn around and 97% of people are white germans and 3 have darker skin, then it was probably them.

    Plus, even when people are very seriously attacked or raped, it is much more likely to get a positive ID or conviction when they have distinctive features that stand out from others in the community. And women would be more likely to report it.

    i don’t want to get too sidetracked on this discussion, as i am not too exorcised either way. but, one way to explore the issue is the experiences of people in the nations of origin. if you identify a dark skinned man as groping you in egypt it’s not going to be ascertainment bias because of … bias.

    from what i have heard sexual harassment in public places of women is a bigger issue in MENA & s. asia than it is in europe (or e. asia or sub-saharan africa or latin america). this also happens to be the region of the world with the most ‘classically’ patriarchal attitudes (not that e. asia, latin america, and sub-saharan africa are not patriarchal, but there are some distinctions here to be made).

    and, contrary to what some might say it’s not racialized, it’s opportunistic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    I understand what you are saying, but I think it is impossible to disentangle it all from mere statistics from different countries.

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to 'native' Germans.

    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.

    Add to that the innocent color bias of the locals, and throw on some politics. I am a man of science, and there is zero science involved in these conclusions.

    I won't say anything else about it on this thread (although I suspect that Razib kind of enjoys when a little heated controversy leads to a few hundred comments on a post).
  75. Marcus says:
    @Razib Khan
    get back on topic. or i'll close the thread.

    Thanks, my one gripe with moderation on this site is that threads go wildly off topic so fast. Also I saw a commenter somewhere else bring up “40,000 years of white race,” I wonder where this meme originated..

    Read More
  76. Tim says:
    @Razib Khan
    i don't want to get too sidetracked on this discussion, as i am not too exorcised either way. but, one way to explore the issue is the experiences of people in the nations of origin. if you identify a dark skinned man as groping you in egypt it's not going to be ascertainment bias because of ... bias.

    from what i have heard sexual harassment in public places of women is a bigger issue in MENA & s. asia than it is in europe (or e. asia or sub-saharan africa or latin america). this also happens to be the region of the world with the most 'classically' patriarchal attitudes (not that e. asia, latin america, and sub-saharan africa are not patriarchal, but there are some distinctions here to be made).

    and, contrary to what some might say it's not racialized, it's opportunistic.

    I understand what you are saying, but I think it is impossible to disentangle it all from mere statistics from different countries.

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to ‘native’ Germans.

    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.

    Add to that the innocent color bias of the locals, and throw on some politics. I am a man of science, and there is zero science involved in these conclusions.

    I won’t say anything else about it on this thread (although I suspect that Razib kind of enjoys when a little heated controversy leads to a few hundred comments on a post).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.



    i would quibble with this. all the data i've seen suggests that people who migrate are NOT usually in the bottom 1/3 of the population, and often from the top 1/2, because u often need resources to actually make the trip. the syrian stream of migrants is more representative...but the ppl from afghanistan etc. are not representative.
    , @backup

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to ‘native’ Germans.
     
    For the surrounding countries there are clear signs. Especially in sexual crimes. If you want clearcut numbers I have a dutch research paper. If you want antecdoctical evidence the book "Dans l'enfer des Tournantes" would be a good start. There is far more.

    http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=132185
    http://www.babelio.com/livres/Bellil-Dans-lenfer-des-tournantes/7038
  77. @Tim
    I understand what you are saying, but I think it is impossible to disentangle it all from mere statistics from different countries.

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to 'native' Germans.

    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.

    Add to that the innocent color bias of the locals, and throw on some politics. I am a man of science, and there is zero science involved in these conclusions.

    I won't say anything else about it on this thread (although I suspect that Razib kind of enjoys when a little heated controversy leads to a few hundred comments on a post).

    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.

    i would quibble with this. all the data i’ve seen suggests that people who migrate are NOT usually in the bottom 1/3 of the population, and often from the top 1/2, because u often need resources to actually make the trip. the syrian stream of migrants is more representative…but the ppl from afghanistan etc. are not representative.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    I agree. They were not poor before they migrated. But after, they typically have no job for quite a long period of time, unless they already have good connections already.

    Not that is is representative, but I actually randomly (only 1 free chair left at the kabob shop) had lunch today with 7 teenagers from Eritrea who each came alone to Germany within the last 2 years. They each spoke at least 4 languages, including German and English and attend the closest Realschule.

    The ones I spoke to the most said that their families were well enough off that they had money to make the trip to Europe. Yet none of them had been able to find a room to rent since they have been here, and definitely no opportunities for work. They lived in refugee housing still. Although their families may have some money, I would consider them to be very poor by German standards.
  78. Matt_ says:
    @Razib Khan
    Could I bother you to list the top three theories/positions that you see falling into this unsupportable category? Nothing elaborate, something at a high-level description, if you have the time. I’m kind of wondering if my hunches are right.



    1) that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can't tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    3) that the history of the human race can be modeled as a series of unidirectional branching migrations out of africa. that's ok to a first approximation, but misleading in any fine-grained sense.

    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    Apparently, this is true enough from just the cranial record, without even getting into soft tissue or the wider skeleton:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=6cI3DSdR7gIC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA529#v=onepage&q&f=false

    Indeed, many aspects of skull shape that differ among populations tend to be quite recent in origin, so that most human skulls dated between roughly 150,000 and 10,000 years ago are more similar to other like-aged skulls than they are to those of historic populations, regardless of geographic location… Ths fact means we cannot use most cranial variations to reconstruct reliable phylogenies beyond 10,000 years ago in any one region, and it raises questions about whether similar features can be used to make reliable inferences over much greater spans of time”

    (Taken from “Evolution of the Human Head”).

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    • Replies: @backup
    That is interesting, especially the old skulls being more similar to each other. Could the old skull types then be considered ancestral and (almost?) all modern human skull types derived? Could there be an overall AMH ancestral phenotype? Would be interested to see that reconstructed in that case.
  79. Tim says:
    @Razib Khan
    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.



    i would quibble with this. all the data i've seen suggests that people who migrate are NOT usually in the bottom 1/3 of the population, and often from the top 1/2, because u often need resources to actually make the trip. the syrian stream of migrants is more representative...but the ppl from afghanistan etc. are not representative.

    I agree. They were not poor before they migrated. But after, they typically have no job for quite a long period of time, unless they already have good connections already.

    Not that is is representative, but I actually randomly (only 1 free chair left at the kabob shop) had lunch today with 7 teenagers from Eritrea who each came alone to Germany within the last 2 years. They each spoke at least 4 languages, including German and English and attend the closest Realschule.

    The ones I spoke to the most said that their families were well enough off that they had money to make the trip to Europe. Yet none of them had been able to find a room to rent since they have been here, and definitely no opportunities for work. They lived in refugee housing still. Although their families may have some money, I would consider them to be very poor by German standards.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sean
    You don't say if they were male or female, but I think we can guess.
  80. Sean says:
    @Tim
    I agree. They were not poor before they migrated. But after, they typically have no job for quite a long period of time, unless they already have good connections already.

    Not that is is representative, but I actually randomly (only 1 free chair left at the kabob shop) had lunch today with 7 teenagers from Eritrea who each came alone to Germany within the last 2 years. They each spoke at least 4 languages, including German and English and attend the closest Realschule.

    The ones I spoke to the most said that their families were well enough off that they had money to make the trip to Europe. Yet none of them had been able to find a room to rent since they have been here, and definitely no opportunities for work. They lived in refugee housing still. Although their families may have some money, I would consider them to be very poor by German standards.

    You don’t say if they were male or female, but I think we can guess.

    Read More
  81. colm says:
    @Tim
    I actually live in Germany (as Razib can tell by my IP address), and probably 99% of rapes and murders are commited by either German citizens or citizens of neighboring EU countries that are legally in the country.

    Although nearly a million refugees have passed through Germany in the past two years, the impact on crime has been extremely low. Less than expected for an average German with low income.

    What you see on American news about Cologne or anywhere else in Europe is completely overblown. That kind of thing has been happening every year for decades (centuries). This year someone decided to scapegoat immigrants. Then the right wing nuts jump on it, and then you hear about it.

    You mean. ‘Germans’ of Middle Eastern and other extraction, right?

    Read More
  82. backup says:
    @Tim
    I understand what you are saying, but I think it is impossible to disentangle it all from mere statistics from different countries.

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to 'native' Germans.

    Most refugees to Europe are very poor young single men, because they are most easily able to escape their homeland, and also willing to take the risk. This is also the same category that is associated with these types of opportunistic crimes in most societies.

    Add to that the innocent color bias of the locals, and throw on some politics. I am a man of science, and there is zero science involved in these conclusions.

    I won't say anything else about it on this thread (although I suspect that Razib kind of enjoys when a little heated controversy leads to a few hundred comments on a post).

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to ‘native’ Germans.

    For the surrounding countries there are clear signs. Especially in sexual crimes. If you want clearcut numbers I have a dutch research paper. If you want antecdoctical evidence the book “Dans l’enfer des Tournantes” would be a good start. There is far more.

    http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=132185

    http://www.babelio.com/livres/Bellil-Dans-lenfer-des-tournantes/7038

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    • Replies: @Tim
    I appreciate the links, but they clearly express the same caveats that I have been trying to express.

    Here is a translated passage from the conclusions of that Dutch research paper:

    "In addition, research on rape is always limited, given the small percentage that is legally registered. This could complicate generalization of the results to the population..."
  83. Tim says:
    @backup

    At least in Germany, I have not seen any proof that there is a real correlation between ethnicity and crime, other than the same correlations that also apply to ‘native’ Germans.
     
    For the surrounding countries there are clear signs. Especially in sexual crimes. If you want clearcut numbers I have a dutch research paper. If you want antecdoctical evidence the book "Dans l'enfer des Tournantes" would be a good start. There is far more.

    http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=132185
    http://www.babelio.com/livres/Bellil-Dans-lenfer-des-tournantes/7038

    I appreciate the links, but they clearly express the same caveats that I have been trying to express.

    Here is a translated passage from the conclusions of that Dutch research paper:

    “In addition, research on rape is always limited, given the small percentage that is legally registered. This could complicate generalization of the results to the population…”

    Read More
    • Replies: @backup
    O I agree. But for the number of ethnic sexual offenders to become more representative of the population the following has to happen:

    We assume that a small percentage of rape is legally registered. For artificial overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among the perpetrators the real figures must have a larger amount of white perpetrators than the registered amount. That would mean that relatively speaking victims would report ethnic minorities on a larger scale than white , as sexual offenders are almost always reported, almost never caught red-handed. That would leave out police bias.

    Add to that the fact that 40% to 60% of the sexual offenders are from an environment shared with the victim. We know that trust in the police is low among ethnic minorities and we know there are language barriers which are very likely to cause an underreporting of cases by women of ethnic minorities.

    Yet still the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among sexual offenders would go away when we would see all cases reported?

    In other words: Don't think these numbers will go away by what you quoted.
  84. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @German_reader
    "But a certain type of person should probably stop talking about how white people have been in Europe for 40,000 years. "
    I assume this refers to various white nationalists...no doubt a lot of those people have a highly mythologized view of the past. But personally I have to say it doesn't matter at all to me if "white" people have only existed for a few thousand years...I'm still opposed to mass immigration from outside Europe and always will be because I regard it as detrimental to my own interests and the kind of society I regard as desirable.
    Publications like the Guardian and the anti-racist, multicultural mainstream in general will probably get really excited about this though since it seems to confirm their "We're all immigrants/mongrels" line and exploit it as much as they can. I'm not looking forward to that.

    German_reader, the interesting item on Razib’s “anti WN” list is this one: “perhaps more importantly, the typical phenotype of Northern Europeans probably really coalesced only around ~5,000 years ago.”

    We’re talking visible changes to the European phenotype that were driven by strong selection during the childhood years of higher civilization in Europe. Wait. European whiteness and European civilization, joined at the hip?

    Pretty please White Nationalists, try to be all over this, at least generating plausible just so stories. This should be more interesting, more entertaining, and more relevant than the migrations of 40Kya.

    Read More
  85. I don’t want to keep pushing this issue since it’s clearly off-topic and Razib already put out a warning but since this site attracts some good readers and the learned host frequently chimes in: why did those mass sex assault events happen in Germany (not just in Cologne either, apparently) but not, say, Greece?

    Even if you discount that the latter is ultimately mostly transit, the former destination, there are still ~60k people (vs ~1 mil, 16x, ‘only’ double what you’d actually expect proportionally) sitting around. Why hasn’t there been mass assault in the hosting islands or Athens (though there have been a few cases of young male refugees harassing young refugee women)?

    What’s the difference?

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    "What’s the difference?"
    Maybe deterrence? I assume migrants know that if they pulled something like this in Athens, the Greek police would just beat them up, maybe even turn a blind eye to Golden Dawn members killing a few of them. The same might actually apply to Germany. I don't believe it's accidental that those mass assaults happened in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen which has been plagued by leftist misrule for decades and where a generalised laxness towards crime seems to have taken hold. I have difficulty envisioning something on this scale happen in a law and order state like Bavaria (but maybe I'm too optimistic...in any case, this off-topic discussion should just die now...it's not enlightening).
  86. backup says:
    @Matt_
    2) the physical types we see around us are ancient. many of them clearly are not. change is continuing to this day.

    Apparently, this is true enough from just the cranial record, without even getting into soft tissue or the wider skeleton:

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=6cI3DSdR7gIC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA529#v=onepage&q&f=false

    Indeed, many aspects of skull shape that differ among populations tend to be quite recent in origin, so that most human skulls dated between roughly 150,000 and 10,000 years ago are more similar to other like-aged skulls than they are to those of historic populations, regardless of geographic location... Ths fact means we cannot use most cranial variations to reconstruct reliable phylogenies beyond 10,000 years ago in any one region, and it raises questions about whether similar features can be used to make reliable inferences over much greater spans of time"

    (Taken from "Evolution of the Human Head").

    That is interesting, especially the old skulls being more similar to each other. Could the old skull types then be considered ancestral and (almost?) all modern human skull types derived? Could there be an overall AMH ancestral phenotype? Would be interested to see that reconstructed in that case.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Matt_
    With the proviso, I'm not as familar with the cranial shape stuff as someone like Dienekes who might be the better person to ask, and I wouldn't place too much confidence in it, but my best shot is as follows:

    I suspect the pattern for what is happening there was that a) the affinities between most of the Homo Sapiens populations from a given time and recent populations from the same area (or any recent population) are weak (not similar in relative proportions of different parts of the skull)... plus at the same time, b) all populations from a similar time period tend to be relatively similar in an overall "robusticity" factor (larger, more strongly built bones, cranial superstructures etc). Then I'm thinking this is what would cause them to group together. As IRC cranial robusticity has decreased over time (though I think there are some ancient populations who are more gracile for their time period, peoples today who are more robust than is normal for recent time).

    In theory there should be some kind of ancestral AMH phenotype (since everyone broke off from one original AMH population in theory), and you'd probably expect it to be more robust than most present day people and more adapted for fairly warmer climates than many recent Eurasian groups (Europeans, East Asians). Never seen a reconstructed last ancestor though. Probably possible to do that with scanning the skull collections that exist...
  87. backup says:
    @Tim
    I appreciate the links, but they clearly express the same caveats that I have been trying to express.

    Here is a translated passage from the conclusions of that Dutch research paper:

    "In addition, research on rape is always limited, given the small percentage that is legally registered. This could complicate generalization of the results to the population..."

    O I agree. But for the number of ethnic sexual offenders to become more representative of the population the following has to happen:

    We assume that a small percentage of rape is legally registered. For artificial overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among the perpetrators the real figures must have a larger amount of white perpetrators than the registered amount. That would mean that relatively speaking victims would report ethnic minorities on a larger scale than white , as sexual offenders are almost always reported, almost never caught red-handed. That would leave out police bias.

    Add to that the fact that 40% to 60% of the sexual offenders are from an environment shared with the victim. We know that trust in the police is low among ethnic minorities and we know there are language barriers which are very likely to cause an underreporting of cases by women of ethnic minorities.

    Yet still the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among sexual offenders would go away when we would see all cases reported?

    In other words: Don’t think these numbers will go away by what you quoted.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    You are missing the point.

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country. This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.

    But if it was a distinct looking dark man with a unique foreign sounding name, then it will be case closed before the trial. And if the news constantly reports that these types of men are just more likely to attack people, then forget about it. It might as well be 1920 in the southern US.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.
  88. Tim says:
    @backup
    O I agree. But for the number of ethnic sexual offenders to become more representative of the population the following has to happen:

    We assume that a small percentage of rape is legally registered. For artificial overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among the perpetrators the real figures must have a larger amount of white perpetrators than the registered amount. That would mean that relatively speaking victims would report ethnic minorities on a larger scale than white , as sexual offenders are almost always reported, almost never caught red-handed. That would leave out police bias.

    Add to that the fact that 40% to 60% of the sexual offenders are from an environment shared with the victim. We know that trust in the police is low among ethnic minorities and we know there are language barriers which are very likely to cause an underreporting of cases by women of ethnic minorities.

    Yet still the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities among sexual offenders would go away when we would see all cases reported?

    In other words: Don't think these numbers will go away by what you quoted.

    You are missing the point.

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country. This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.

    But if it was a distinct looking dark man with a unique foreign sounding name, then it will be case closed before the trial. And if the news constantly reports that these types of men are just more likely to attack people, then forget about it. It might as well be 1920 in the southern US.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    this is why murder is the "best" crime statistic. the bias issues go down as murders are salient enough to be noticed.
    , @backup

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country.
     
    That you need to prove. The police follows up all reported cases, at least in the Netherlands. It is policy. You basically now revert to claiming "racism" because the numbers don't fit your purpose. Well, Dutch studies show the discrepancy even remains with cases where offenders admitted guilt.

    So, unless you want to go down the road of blaming the victims of racism your story doesn't hold.


    This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.
     
    I just showed you the opposite is the case.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.
     
    They are most likely not, as I explained in the previous reaction. Again, police bias can't have anything to do with it as sexual offences are only reported by victims.
  89. @bloopitybloop
    I don't want to keep pushing this issue since it's clearly off-topic and Razib already put out a warning but since this site attracts some good readers and the learned host frequently chimes in: why did those mass sex assault events happen in Germany (not just in Cologne either, apparently) but not, say, Greece?

    Even if you discount that the latter is ultimately mostly transit, the former destination, there are still ~60k people (vs ~1 mil, 16x, 'only' double what you'd actually expect proportionally) sitting around. Why hasn't there been mass assault in the hosting islands or Athens (though there have been a few cases of young male refugees harassing young refugee women)?

    What's the difference?

    “What’s the difference?”
    Maybe deterrence? I assume migrants know that if they pulled something like this in Athens, the Greek police would just beat them up, maybe even turn a blind eye to Golden Dawn members killing a few of them. The same might actually apply to Germany. I don’t believe it’s accidental that those mass assaults happened in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen which has been plagued by leftist misrule for decades and where a generalised laxness towards crime seems to have taken hold. I have difficulty envisioning something on this scale happen in a law and order state like Bavaria (but maybe I’m too optimistic…in any case, this off-topic discussion should just die now…it’s not enlightening).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

  90. @Tim
    You are missing the point.

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country. This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.

    But if it was a distinct looking dark man with a unique foreign sounding name, then it will be case closed before the trial. And if the news constantly reports that these types of men are just more likely to attack people, then forget about it. It might as well be 1920 in the southern US.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.

    this is why murder is the “best” crime statistic. the bias issues go down as murders are salient enough to be noticed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tim
    I absolutely agree that it is the best for statistics. Although it still has some bias in seemingly 'random' cases without witnesses.

    And I am sure that there have not been statistically more murders than average committed by migrants as opposed to citizens.

    And if there have been, then it was among unwitnessed murders.
  91. Tim says:
    @German_reader
    "What’s the difference?"
    Maybe deterrence? I assume migrants know that if they pulled something like this in Athens, the Greek police would just beat them up, maybe even turn a blind eye to Golden Dawn members killing a few of them. The same might actually apply to Germany. I don't believe it's accidental that those mass assaults happened in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen which has been plagued by leftist misrule for decades and where a generalised laxness towards crime seems to have taken hold. I have difficulty envisioning something on this scale happen in a law and order state like Bavaria (but maybe I'm too optimistic...in any case, this off-topic discussion should just die now...it's not enlightening).

    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can’t see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up ‘rape in germany’ on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    What's your point? Even if I accepted your claim that MENA migrants aren't really more inclined to rape than your average central European, and it's all due to socio-economic reasons...why should Germany or any other country import lots of young men who are likely to form a permanent underclass whose members in many cases will turn to crime? You wrote yourself that job prospects are bleak for those Eritreans you met. Young men are dangerous anyway, and importing more than a million of them whose dreams of a nice life are bound to be disappointed in many cases, looks like a certain way to raise crime rates (and that's not even taking into consideration that in many cases the cultures of their home countries are vastly more misogynistic and violent than anything seen in Europe...but I suppose, pointing that out is "racist").
    Not interested in further discussion...and btw, I don't appreciate your thread derailing (even though I was unfortunately dumb enough to be provoked into replies), I'm surprised Razib lets you get away with it.
    , @syonredux

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men
     
    I know people from the Middle East (Egypt and Lebanon)who have lived in Italy and Spain. They all tell me that the levels of untoward sexual behavior are vastly greater in their home counties.Here's an article discussing some of the things that occur in Egypt:

    The mass sexual assault of women in public has been documented in Egypt since 2005.[n 1]
    Typically acting under the protective cover of large gatherings, assailants encircle a woman while outer rings of men deter rescuers. The attackers regularly pretend to be there to help the women, adding to the confusion. Women have reported being groped, stripped, beaten, bitten, penetrated with fingers and raped.[2]:38–41 The attacks have been described in Egypt as the "circle of hell."
     
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_sexual_assault_in_Egypt
    , @bloopitybloop
    German_reader, I thought of that too. Despite the government of Syriza being incompetent lefties who helped the immigrant crisis in their own ways and "law and order" not being in their vocabulary, the police isn't that open-minded and gentle...

    Tim, we have reports from refugees harassing other refugees. I assure you if anything like what happened in many places in Germany happened in Greece, on that massive scale, we'd have found out, even if southern European women have a higher standard for reporting which you're probably right about. OTOH, "the immigrants get confused for locals" (even if we assumed they look exactly like the natives physically; btw, perception between a German and a Greek about that probably differ) is an excuse I don't really buy.

    I didn't like the frequently misleading commentating on these issues at all and your points on specific categories of crime are well-taken but, to echo German, I do think you're burying your head in the sand a bit.


    Anyway, I have already taken enough space as it is so I'll apologize for the off-topic and stop here.
    , @backup

    Just as another example, look up ‘rape in germany’ on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.
     
    That is because those numbers mean very little. A man that groped a female coworker can get fired for that. Companies have special departments for these issues - mine at least has. Yet no 50% of male workers are fired for groping. Not even 5%. That means something is wrong with these figures.

    However, reported rape is at least investigated case by case. That means the numbers have been checked. You may think that checking is flawed, but if you select different figures from those - reported cases, convictions or admitted guild - the picture remains the same. That is evidence that it points to something real.
    , @BB753
    "Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?"

    You clearly haven't.
    Yes, in Southern Europe, including France, women are ogled at and catcalled and generally receive unwanted attention. But they're not groped in public and rape rates are very low. Lower than in Northern Europe.

    "These women already expect it more. And they can’t see a distinct difference based on skin."

    Again, there's nothing comparable to the ugly sexual aggressiveness prevalent in the Middle East.
    And are you implying local women are unable to tell apart fob foreigners from native men?
    You're very deluded on all counts..
    , @Jefferson
    "All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals."

    As an Italian I have gone up to complete female strangers and complimented them on their physical appearance, but I've never taken it to the level that many Brothas and Muslim men take with the groping and the raping. If Italians were known for rape, Staten Island would be the rape capital of America and Italy would be the rape capital of Europe.
  92. Tim says:
    @Razib Khan
    this is why murder is the "best" crime statistic. the bias issues go down as murders are salient enough to be noticed.

    I absolutely agree that it is the best for statistics. Although it still has some bias in seemingly ‘random’ cases without witnesses.

    And I am sure that there have not been statistically more murders than average committed by migrants as opposed to citizens.

    And if there have been, then it was among unwitnessed murders.

    Read More
  93. @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    What’s your point? Even if I accepted your claim that MENA migrants aren’t really more inclined to rape than your average central European, and it’s all due to socio-economic reasons…why should Germany or any other country import lots of young men who are likely to form a permanent underclass whose members in many cases will turn to crime? You wrote yourself that job prospects are bleak for those Eritreans you met. Young men are dangerous anyway, and importing more than a million of them whose dreams of a nice life are bound to be disappointed in many cases, looks like a certain way to raise crime rates (and that’s not even taking into consideration that in many cases the cultures of their home countries are vastly more misogynistic and violent than anything seen in Europe…but I suppose, pointing that out is “racist”).
    Not interested in further discussion…and btw, I don’t appreciate your thread derailing (even though I was unfortunately dumb enough to be provoked into replies), I’m surprised Razib lets you get away with it.

    Read More
  94. syonredux says:
    @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men

    I know people from the Middle East (Egypt and Lebanon)who have lived in Italy and Spain. They all tell me that the levels of untoward sexual behavior are vastly greater in their home counties.Here’s an article discussing some of the things that occur in Egypt:

    The mass sexual assault of women in public has been documented in Egypt since 2005.[n 1]
    Typically acting under the protective cover of large gatherings, assailants encircle a woman while outer rings of men deter rescuers. The attackers regularly pretend to be there to help the women, adding to the confusion. Women have reported being groped, stripped, beaten, bitten, penetrated with fingers and raped.[2]:38–41 The attacks have been described in Egypt as the “circle of hell.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_sexual_assault_in_Egypt

    Read More
  95. @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    German_reader, I thought of that too. Despite the government of Syriza being incompetent lefties who helped the immigrant crisis in their own ways and “law and order” not being in their vocabulary, the police isn’t that open-minded and gentle…

    Tim, we have reports from refugees harassing other refugees. I assure you if anything like what happened in many places in Germany happened in Greece, on that massive scale, we’d have found out, even if southern European women have a higher standard for reporting which you’re probably right about. OTOH, “the immigrants get confused for locals” (even if we assumed they look exactly like the natives physically; btw, perception between a German and a Greek about that probably differ) is an excuse I don’t really buy.

    I didn’t like the frequently misleading commentating on these issues at all and your points on specific categories of crime are well-taken but, to echo German, I do think you’re burying your head in the sand a bit.

    Anyway, I have already taken enough space as it is so I’ll apologize for the off-topic and stop here.

    Read More
  96. Jefferson says:
    @German_reader
    "that phylogeny and phenotype track closely. just because you can’t tell the physical difference between two pops (e.g., solomon islanders and sub-saharan africans) they must be phylogenetically close. this is not the case."

    You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That's pretty strange, didn't know that view is common.

    “You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common.”

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores

    Your point that the New Guinean would have likely been considered as black is correct. However, if you want to be accurate, you should know that there were few if any "white stores." Blacks shopped in the same stores, although there couldn't sit at the lunch counters. I doubt that they were allowed to return merchandise, but I don't know for sure about that. Most theatres, ball parks, bus stations, public attractions, etc. had separate entrances and sitting or waiting areas for blacks and whites. Some events would have colored day or night. Many restaurants were white only, but blacks were allowed to use the take-out windows.
    , @syonredux

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.
     
    Actually, I'm not sure about that. I've heard that non-White, foreign visitors to the Jim Crow South were sometimes granted a kind of "honorary White " status. Indeed, I seem to recall a Black reporter during the Jim Crow era making a crack about how if a Black American wanted to stay at a White hotel, he would stand a better chance if he wrapped his head in a towel and claimed to be from the South Seas.
  97. backup says:
    @Tim
    You are missing the point.

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country. This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.

    But if it was a distinct looking dark man with a unique foreign sounding name, then it will be case closed before the trial. And if the news constantly reports that these types of men are just more likely to attack people, then forget about it. It might as well be 1920 in the southern US.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.

    Women are less likely to report it, the police are less likely to follow up, and a conviction is less likely if the description was of a man matching 95% of random men in the country.

    That you need to prove. The police follows up all reported cases, at least in the Netherlands. It is policy. You basically now revert to claiming “racism” because the numbers don’t fit your purpose. Well, Dutch studies show the discrepancy even remains with cases where offenders admitted guilt.

    So, unless you want to go down the road of blaming the victims of racism your story doesn’t hold.

    This is especially true if they already knew each other before the incident.

    I just showed you the opposite is the case.

    Statistics from convictions are tainted in so many ways.

    They are most likely not, as I explained in the previous reaction. Again, police bias can’t have anything to do with it as sexual offences are only reported by victims.

    Read More
  98. backup says:
    @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    Just as another example, look up ‘rape in germany’ on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    That is because those numbers mean very little. A man that groped a female coworker can get fired for that. Companies have special departments for these issues – mine at least has. Yet no 50% of male workers are fired for groping. Not even 5%. That means something is wrong with these figures.

    However, reported rape is at least investigated case by case. That means the numbers have been checked. You may think that checking is flawed, but if you select different figures from those – reported cases, convictions or admitted guild – the picture remains the same. That is evidence that it points to something real.

    Read More
  99. the rate of crime (sexual crime) can both be higher than the baseline, and, it could be exaggerated.

    i think the key for me is that sexual harassment is well known to be a major problem in MENA and s. asia (people travel there, so they have experience of this) , so i see no reason why one’s prior should be that they will behave that differently in new circumstances.

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  100. BB753 says:
    @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    “Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?”

    You clearly haven’t.
    Yes, in Southern Europe, including France, women are ogled at and catcalled and generally receive unwanted attention. But they’re not groped in public and rape rates are very low. Lower than in Northern Europe.

    “These women already expect it more. And they can’t see a distinct difference based on skin.”

    Again, there’s nothing comparable to the ugly sexual aggressiveness prevalent in the Middle East.
    And are you implying local women are unable to tell apart fob foreigners from native men?
    You’re very deluded on all counts..

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  101. Sean says:

    IMO, people from strict cultures have less need for self control, because their society takes care of it. I think there is going to be negative assimilation, and the problems will get much worse when those who came to the west as children grow up in the west. The homeland cultures of immigrants have various ways of restraining young men, basically women are protected / supervised by their male relatives who deter harassment. They do it when they can back home but usually they can’t.

    The negative assimilation will cut both ways. In my experience MENA and s. asia girls in Britain are relatively demure, but those who have not been brought up in their diaspora community culture are the wildest girls you will ever meet.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    are the wildest girls you will ever meet.

    Sean,

    Run away from this, you are getting very close to the black/brown girls are sex machine/goddess territory.
  102. iffen says:
    @Jefferson
    "You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common."

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.

    that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores

    Your point that the New Guinean would have likely been considered as black is correct. However, if you want to be accurate, you should know that there were few if any “white stores.” Blacks shopped in the same stores, although there couldn’t sit at the lunch counters. I doubt that they were allowed to return merchandise, but I don’t know for sure about that. Most theatres, ball parks, bus stations, public attractions, etc. had separate entrances and sitting or waiting areas for blacks and whites. Some events would have colored day or night. Many restaurants were white only, but blacks were allowed to use the take-out windows.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Your point that the New Guinean would have likely been considered as black is correct."

    Of course I am correct. No White Southerner in Jim Crow South would have believed that the Papua New Guinean was just a tanned Iberian like Cristiano Ronaldo and Rafael Nadal.
  103. Jefferson says:
    @Tim
    All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.

    This is the difference. These women already expect it more. And they can't see a distinct difference based on skin.

    Just as another example, look up 'rape in germany' on wikipedia. In private surveys, over 50% of women report unwanted touching ( groping ) by male co-workers. This is also true in crowded public spaces. But this is no news story.

    “All I can say is Wow!

    Have any of the commenters here ever lived in Greece, or Italy, or Spain, or Turkey, or anywhere in Southern Europe?

    If you are an attractive woman, then you get yelled toward all the time. You get constant unwanted advances from sketchy men. However, in these regions, the immigrants look much more like the locals.”

    As an Italian I have gone up to complete female strangers and complimented them on their physical appearance, but I’ve never taken it to the level that many Brothas and Muslim men take with the groping and the raping. If Italians were known for rape, Staten Island would be the rape capital of America and Italy would be the rape capital of Europe.

    Read More
  104. Matt_ says:
    @backup
    That is interesting, especially the old skulls being more similar to each other. Could the old skull types then be considered ancestral and (almost?) all modern human skull types derived? Could there be an overall AMH ancestral phenotype? Would be interested to see that reconstructed in that case.

    With the proviso, I’m not as familar with the cranial shape stuff as someone like Dienekes who might be the better person to ask, and I wouldn’t place too much confidence in it, but my best shot is as follows:

    I suspect the pattern for what is happening there was that a) the affinities between most of the Homo Sapiens populations from a given time and recent populations from the same area (or any recent population) are weak (not similar in relative proportions of different parts of the skull)… plus at the same time, b) all populations from a similar time period tend to be relatively similar in an overall “robusticity” factor (larger, more strongly built bones, cranial superstructures etc). Then I’m thinking this is what would cause them to group together. As IRC cranial robusticity has decreased over time (though I think there are some ancient populations who are more gracile for their time period, peoples today who are more robust than is normal for recent time).

    In theory there should be some kind of ancestral AMH phenotype (since everyone broke off from one original AMH population in theory), and you’d probably expect it to be more robust than most present day people and more adapted for fairly warmer climates than many recent Eurasian groups (Europeans, East Asians). Never seen a reconstructed last ancestor though. Probably possible to do that with scanning the skull collections that exist…

    Read More
  105. Jefferson says:
    @iffen
    that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores

    Your point that the New Guinean would have likely been considered as black is correct. However, if you want to be accurate, you should know that there were few if any "white stores." Blacks shopped in the same stores, although there couldn't sit at the lunch counters. I doubt that they were allowed to return merchandise, but I don't know for sure about that. Most theatres, ball parks, bus stations, public attractions, etc. had separate entrances and sitting or waiting areas for blacks and whites. Some events would have colored day or night. Many restaurants were white only, but blacks were allowed to use the take-out windows.

    “Your point that the New Guinean would have likely been considered as black is correct.”

    Of course I am correct. No White Southerner in Jim Crow South would have believed that the Papua New Guinean was just a tanned Iberian like Cristiano Ronaldo and Rafael Nadal.

    Read More
  106. iffen says:
    @Sean
    IMO, people from strict cultures have less need for self control, because their society takes care of it. I think there is going to be negative assimilation, and the problems will get much worse when those who came to the west as children grow up in the west. The homeland cultures of immigrants have various ways of restraining young men, basically women are protected / supervised by their male relatives who deter harassment. They do it when they can back home but usually they can't.

    The negative assimilation will cut both ways. In my experience MENA and s. asia girls in Britain are relatively demure, but those who have not been brought up in their diaspora community culture are the wildest girls you will ever meet.

    are the wildest girls you will ever meet.

    Sean,

    Run away from this, you are getting very close to the black/brown girls are sex machine/goddess territory.

    Read More
  107. syonredux says:
    @Jefferson
    "You mean like regarding both sub-saharan Africans and people from e.g. Papua New Guinea as belonging to some sort of unified black race? That’s pretty strange, didn’t know that view is common."

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.

    If you dropped off a Papua New Guinean in 1939 Jim Crow Tennessee, he or she would be legally seen and treated as an N Word by White people. Even though that person is not of Sub Saharan African descent, that person would still not be able to shop at Whites only stores, eat at Whites only restaurants, use Whites only public restrooms, watch a film at Whites only theaters, etc.

    Actually, I’m not sure about that. I’ve heard that non-White, foreign visitors to the Jim Crow South were sometimes granted a kind of “honorary White ” status. Indeed, I seem to recall a Black reporter during the Jim Crow era making a crack about how if a Black American wanted to stay at a White hotel, he would stand a better chance if he wrapped his head in a towel and claimed to be from the South Seas.

    Read More
  108. […] And here’s Razib Khan on our new understanding of how different ancient population structure was. […]

    Read More

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