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11/6/2016 Open Thread
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51deNffGPJL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_ (1) My prediction above. Based on a few minutes scanning online. Also, I suspect that Trump supported is being overestimated. Low confidence that I’m adding value with my opinion.

After finishing Unfinished Empire: The Global Expansion of Britain I’m struck by the fact that the author had to make some criticisms of Edward Said’s Orientalism, because Orientalism is so weak on both details and overall theoretical framework. That’s why I dismissed it fifteen years ago when I read it, but today I have to say that Orientalism is the model of scholarly sophistication compared to what prevails today in postcolonial theory.

 
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  1. I was curious if you think the Shy Trump Voter is a thing? After all, there are nontrivial costs to admitting Trump support in educated urban circles. But then again, such an effect would have little impact in most Blue States. There is a small probability that in say Michigan it might be a thing. Your map above plus Michigan will put Trump put over the edge. Admittedly not a very likely scenario.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jacob Robino
    The shy Trump voter/ monster vote is probably real. We can say as much because primary turnout was way, way up in the Republican primaries, particularly in open primary states, and because Trump did 3.3% better than the polls predicted on average during the primaries. Pennsylvania turnout was particularly up even though it was a closed primary state, and Ohio voter registration is shifting to the right.

    If Trump wins, it'll be thanks to White, blue collar Democrats (and Republicans and Independents who normally don't vote) living in Appalachia and the Rust Belt, and they'll unexpectedly flip either Virginia or Pennsylvania (more likely Pennsylvania). These people have been getting screwed by globalism harder and longer than most others.

    He could also end up flipping comparatively random swing states like Colorado or Nevada. He would only stand a chance to do that if he outperforms the polls, which he does.

    But I think it's pretty clear that he stands a solid chance by now, which is bizarre because his voters are stacked up against illegals, dead people, and double voters- and those aren't even conspiracies. And of course there's the obvious media bias, birddogging etc. Really, the only person who could lose to Trump is someone as hated as Hillary Clinton.

    Thank you DNC!
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  2. I thought you might be interested in knowing who George R.R. Martin, who is on the conservative end of the speculative fiction pantheon is supporting:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/george-rr-martin-election/index.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    he's not conservative. he's a liberal, and always been a liberal. he's talked about his politics extensively. he went into major depression after 2004, and that might have pushed *a feast for crows* back a few months.
  3. The Shy Trump Voter could be a real thing but still get swamped by other stuff. Do you think it’s not real or just think it won’t overpower other trends? I’ve long felt that no outcome will surprise me: landslide either way, really close either way, or terrible Bush-Gore style “tie” and court battle.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    Well, you have everything covered. I guess that comes with the poly.
  4. @ohwilleke
    I thought you might be interested in knowing who George R.R. Martin, who is on the conservative end of the speculative fiction pantheon is supporting:

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/06/politics/george-rr-martin-election/index.html

    he’s not conservative. he’s a liberal, and always been a liberal. he’s talked about his politics extensively. he went into major depression after 2004, and that might have pushed *a feast for crows* back a few months.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    he went into major depression after 2004, and that might have pushed *a feast for crows* back a few months.
     
    Uh oh. I wonder what Trump's election means for the WoW?

    Looks like I'm not the first to think this: http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/66592/20161112/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-news-update-george-rr-martin-delays-novel-after-hillary-clintons-loss-calls-donald-trump-unfit.htm
  5. @Dmitri Helios
    I was curious if you think the Shy Trump Voter is a thing? After all, there are nontrivial costs to admitting Trump support in educated urban circles. But then again, such an effect would have little impact in most Blue States. There is a small probability that in say Michigan it might be a thing. Your map above plus Michigan will put Trump put over the edge. Admittedly not a very likely scenario.

    The shy Trump voter/ monster vote is probably real. We can say as much because primary turnout was way, way up in the Republican primaries, particularly in open primary states, and because Trump did 3.3% better than the polls predicted on average during the primaries. Pennsylvania turnout was particularly up even though it was a closed primary state, and Ohio voter registration is shifting to the right.

    If Trump wins, it’ll be thanks to White, blue collar Democrats (and Republicans and Independents who normally don’t vote) living in Appalachia and the Rust Belt, and they’ll unexpectedly flip either Virginia or Pennsylvania (more likely Pennsylvania). These people have been getting screwed by globalism harder and longer than most others.

    He could also end up flipping comparatively random swing states like Colorado or Nevada. He would only stand a chance to do that if he outperforms the polls, which he does.

    But I think it’s pretty clear that he stands a solid chance by now, which is bizarre because his voters are stacked up against illegals, dead people, and double voters- and those aren’t even conspiracies. And of course there’s the obvious media bias, birddogging etc. Really, the only person who could lose to Trump is someone as hated as Hillary Clinton.

    Thank you DNC!

    Read More
  6. @Polynices
    The Shy Trump Voter could be a real thing but still get swamped by other stuff. Do you think it's not real or just think it won't overpower other trends? I've long felt that no outcome will surprise me: landslide either way, really close either way, or terrible Bush-Gore style "tie" and court battle.

    Well, you have everything covered. I guess that comes with the poly.

    Read More
  7. My first presidential vote was for George McGovern in 1972. I have voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since (Obama twice), except I could not vote for Al “Lockbox” Gore vs. George “Dubya” Bush and did not vote. I voted for Trump in the Republican primary (first time ever voting in the Republican primary) and will vote for Trump on Tuesday even though my state will be likely be 65-35 for Trump. And, of course it is all perfectly consistent and logical to me.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jacob Robino
    They say it takes 20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican without changing a single belief.

    I remember speeches of Bill Clinton during his first presidential run talking about how bad illegal immigration was, anyway.
  8. @iffen
    My first presidential vote was for George McGovern in 1972. I have voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since (Obama twice), except I could not vote for Al "Lockbox" Gore vs. George "Dubya" Bush and did not vote. I voted for Trump in the Republican primary (first time ever voting in the Republican primary) and will vote for Trump on Tuesday even though my state will be likely be 65-35 for Trump. And, of course it is all perfectly consistent and logical to me.

    They say it takes 20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican without changing a single belief.

    I remember speeches of Bill Clinton during his first presidential run talking about how bad illegal immigration was, anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican

    The way I heard it was that we go from liberal to conservative as we age.
  9. Here is a good page summarizing most of the available professional forecasts at:

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

    My prediction: Hillary wins narrowly, the House and Senate stay R., Obama pardons Hillary and her henchcritters, the House opens impeachment hearings before the inauguration, and Putin annexes Estonia.

    I am an incurable optimist.

    How bad a candidate is Donald Trump? Ray Fair, a Professor of economics at Yale, has maintained a macro economic model of elections for a number of years:

    https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.htm

    The model based on data* from October 2016, has the Democrats receiving 44% of the 2 party vote for President. Any competent Republican should have won this election over Hillary, easily.

    *Fair does not use polling data.

    How bad a candidate is Hillary? Only she could have turned this into a squeaker.

    Maureen Dowd of the NYTimes Op-Ed page did a good review of the weaknesses of both candidates this morning:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/06/opinion/sunday/the-end-is-nigh.html

    Read More
  10. @Jacob Robino
    They say it takes 20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican without changing a single belief.

    I remember speeches of Bill Clinton during his first presidential run talking about how bad illegal immigration was, anyway.

    20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican

    The way I heard it was that we go from liberal to conservative as we age.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SD
    I wonder what happened to the George W Bush era anti-war hipsters. Are they voting for Hillary, who is far more likely than Trump to start a war? Most of them seem to be.
  11. Nate Silver my usual go to guy for astute political analysis was embarrassed by predicting only a 2% chance for Trump to win the republican nomination. Now he is (my opinion) a bit too pro Trump in his analysis of outcome. But still he has Clinton about a 65% favorite.

    I am fascinated by this election but I am very distraught about it as well. I agree with Walter Sobchak that we have terrible candidates but my God the public is sooo stupid, sooo easily mislead. Lots of main stream media types badmouth the candidates but what should we expect when the average voter is incredibly self centered, ignorant of basic truths, and emotional like a spoiled child.

    Trump will probably lose but that won’t make the real problem go away. Average is really really fucking ignorant.

    Read More
  12. @iffen
    20 years for someone to go from Democrat to Republican

    The way I heard it was that we go from liberal to conservative as we age.

    I wonder what happened to the George W Bush era anti-war hipsters. Are they voting for Hillary, who is far more likely than Trump to start a war? Most of them seem to be.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    We have had war mongers exclusively from each party for so long that it is hard to say. I lean toward Trump as being less of a threat. I think that it is difficult to make a choice based on this one criterion alone and have a lot of confidence that the correct choice has been made.
  13. Has Edward Said ever written anything that wasn’t something along the lines of “Westerners don’t understand Easterners 100% and thus have stereotypes about them”?

    I don’t know why the guy was ever taken seriously

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sam
    For the same reason that Ta-Nehisi Coates is taken seriously today. He is a man feeding into the moral zeitgeist with enough intellectual fluff around it to make it look semi-serious.

    Anybody who feeds into the current Western zeitgeist will be rewarded handsomely. And Said managed to open a new academic field in the process so I understand how he has earned his stripes among peers.


    Read this and apply it backwards in time
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/27/antiracism-our-flawed-new-religion.html
  14. @SD
    I wonder what happened to the George W Bush era anti-war hipsters. Are they voting for Hillary, who is far more likely than Trump to start a war? Most of them seem to be.

    We have had war mongers exclusively from each party for so long that it is hard to say. I lean toward Trump as being less of a threat. I think that it is difficult to make a choice based on this one criterion alone and have a lot of confidence that the correct choice has been made.

    Read More
  15. @Jason Liu
    Has Edward Said ever written anything that wasn't something along the lines of "Westerners don't understand Easterners 100% and thus have stereotypes about them"?

    I don't know why the guy was ever taken seriously

    For the same reason that Ta-Nehisi Coates is taken seriously today. He is a man feeding into the moral zeitgeist with enough intellectual fluff around it to make it look semi-serious.

    Anybody who feeds into the current Western zeitgeist will be rewarded handsomely. And Said managed to open a new academic field in the process so I understand how he has earned his stripes among peers.

    Read this and apply it backwards in time

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/27/antiracism-our-flawed-new-religion.html

    Read More
  16. @Razib Khan
    he's not conservative. he's a liberal, and always been a liberal. he's talked about his politics extensively. he went into major depression after 2004, and that might have pushed *a feast for crows* back a few months.

    he went into major depression after 2004, and that might have pushed *a feast for crows* back a few months.

    Uh oh. I wonder what Trump’s election means for the WoW?

    Looks like I’m not the first to think this: http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/66592/20161112/the-winds-of-winter-release-date-news-update-george-rr-martin-delays-novel-after-hillary-clintons-loss-calls-donald-trump-unfit.htm

    Read More

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