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For a couple of decades I covered the military for various publications, as for example the Washington Times and Harper’s, and wrote a military column for Universal Press Syndicate. I was following the time-honored principle of sensible reporters: “Ask not what you can do for journalism, but what journalism can do for you.” The military beat was a great gig, letting you fly in fighter planes and sink in submarines. But if you take the study seriously, as I did, you learn interesting things. Such as that a war with a real country, such as Russia, China, or even Iran, would be a fool’s adventure. A few points:

Unused militaries deteriorate

The US fleet has not been in a war since 1945, the air forces since 1975. nor the Army in a hard fight since Vietnam. Bombing defenseless peasants, the chief function of the American military, is not war.

In extended periods of peace, which includes the bombing of peasants, a military tends to assume that no major war will come during the careers of those now in uniform. Commanders consequently do what makes their lives easy, what they must do to get through the day and have reasonable fitness reports. This does not include pointing out inadequacies of training or equipment. Nor does it include recommending large expenditures to remedy deficiencies. Nor does it include recommending very expensive mobilization exercises that would divert money from new weapons.

Thus an armored command has enough replacement tracks for training, but not enough for tanks in hard use in extended combat. When the crunch comes, it turns out that getting more track requires a new contract with the manufacturer, who has shut down the production line. The same is true for air filters, there not being much sand at Fort Campbell but a lot in Iraq. Things as mundane as MRATs and boots are not there.in real-war quantities.

GAU-8 ammo is in short supply because theory says the F-35 will do tank busting. The Navy runs out of TLAMs early on and discovers that manufacturing cruise missiles takes time. Lots ot it.

And of course some things simply don’t work as expected. Military history buffs will remember the Mark XIV torpedo, the Mark VI exploder of WWII, and the travails of the Tinosa.

Come the war, things turn into a goat rope. FUBAR, SNAFU.

Conscription

The United States cannot fight a large land war, as for example against Russia, China, or Iran. Such a war would require conscription. The public would not stand for it. America no longer enjoys the sort of patriotic unity that it did at the beginning of the war against Vietnam. It will not accept heavy casualties. People today are far more willing to disobey the federal government. Note that many states have legalized marijuana in defiance of federal law, that many jurisdictions across the country simply refuse to assist federal immigration enforcement. Any attempt to send Snowflakes and other delicates to fight would result in widespread civil disobedience.

The Navy

The existing fleet has never been under fire and does not think it ever will be. Most of its ships are thin-skinned, unarmored. One hit by an antiship missile would remove them from the war. This is as true of the Tico-class Aegis ships as of the newer Arleigh Burkes.

An aircraft carrier is a bladder of jet fuel wrapped around high explosives.The implications are considerable. A plunging hypersonic terminally-guided ballistic missile, piercing the flight deck and exploding in the hangar deck, would require a year in the repair yards. The Russians and Chinese are developing–have developed–missiles specifically to take out carriers. Note that the range of some of these missiles is much greater than the combat radius of the carrier’s aviation. Oops.

The USS Stark, 1987, after being hit by a pair of French Exocet missiles fired by an Iraqi Mirage
The USS Stark, 1987, after being hit by a pair of French Exocet missiles fired by an Iraqi Mirage
The USS Forrestal  in 1967 after a five-inch Zuni land-attack missile, a pipsqueak rocket, accidentally launched on deck. It hit another fighter. The resulting fire cooked off large bombs. One hundred thirty-four dead, long stay in repair yards.
The USS Forrestal in 1967 after a five-inch Zuni land-attack missile, a pipsqueak rocket, accidentally launched on deck. It hit another fighter. The resulting fire cooked off large bombs. One hundred thirty-four dead, long stay in repair yards.

The Navy is assuming that it cannot be hit.

The Milquetoast Factor

Through Vietnam, America’s wars were fought by tough kids, often from rural backgrounds involving familiarity with guns and with hard physical work. I know as I grew up and went to Marine boot with them. Discipline, if not quite brutal, came close. Physical demands were high. In AIT–Advanced Infantry Training–at Camp Lejeune, it was “S Company on the road!” at three-thirty a.m., followed by hard running and weapons training until midnight. Yes, oldsters like to remember how it was, but that was how it was.

Today America has a military corrupted by social-justice politics. Recruits are no longer country boys who could chop cordwood. Obesity is common. The Pentagon has lowered physical standards, hidden racial problems, softened training. The officers are afraid of the large numbers of military women who are now in combat positions. One complaint about sexism and there goes the career.

Officer Rot

In times of extended peace the officer corps decays. All second-tour officers are politicians, especially above the level of lieutenant colonel. You don’t get promoted by suggesting the the senior ranks are lying for political reasons, as by insisting that the Afghan war is being won. Peacetime encourages careerists who advance by not making waves. Such Pattons of PowerPoint invariably have to be weeded out, at a high cost in lives, in a big war.

Today’s military is not going to fare well in anything resembling equal combat against Afghans, Russians, or Iranians. The US military has not been able to defeat Afghan villagers in eighteen years with an immense advantage in air power, gunships, armor, artillery, medical care, and PXs. What do you think would happen if they had to fight the Taliban on equal terms–sandals, rifles, RPGs, and not much else?

Unrealism

The future is the enemy of the present.

The military is not ready for a real war now because its focus is always on things down the road. For example, the Navy cannot now defeat hypersonic antiship missiles but will be able to, it thinks, someday, maybe, world without end, with near-magical lasers still in development. These will funnel lots of money to Raytheon or Lockheed Martin or somebody whether they work or not. Which isn’t important since nobody really believes there will be a serious war.

This is common thinking. America is in process of acquiring B-21 intercontinental nuclear bombers for a frightening price. These will be useless except in a nuclear war, when they would still be useless because the ICBMs would already have turned targets into glowing rubble when the B-21s got there.

What the B21 will look like. It has a seat for Robin. The appeal of such things for adult twelve-year-olds is underestimated.
What the B21 will look like. It has a seat for Robin. The appeal of such things for adult twelve-year-olds is underestimated.

Why build them? Because Northrop-Grumman has so much money that its lobbyists use snow shovels to fill Congressional pockets. In my days of covering the Pentagon, whenever a new weapon was bought, the AH-64 for example, the prime contractor would hand out a list of subcontractors in many states–whose congressmen would support the weapon to get the jobs. It is all about money. Sometimes Congress forces the military to buy weapons it explicitly says it doesn’t want, such as more M1 tanks from the factory in Lima, Ohio. Jobs.

In short, many weapons are bought for economic reasons, not for use in war. In my day, II saw many not-for-use weapons. The B1, B2, DIVAD, the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, the M16, the V-22, the LAW. Nothing has changed.

The Blank Ignorance Factor

The landscape outside of the Five-Sided Wind Tunnel is at least as bleak as that within. A friend, very much in a position to know, estimates that ninety percent of the Senate does not know where Burma is. Think Hormuz-Malacca-South China Sea.The likelihood that Trump knows what countries are littoral to the Caspian is zero. When I covered the military very few in Congress and nobody in the major media knew anything at all about weaponry and it uses: surface duct, deep sound channel, convergence zones, pseudo-random beam steering, APFSDS, staring receivers, chirp coding. These are the first-grade small talk of people who pay attention. These do not include minor lawyers-become-Congressmen from East East Jesus, Nebraska. Yet hey vote on military policy.

The Arrival of the Maintenance Hog

Being in a real war is hard on equipment. There are battle damage and heavy wear and tear. This doesn’t matter in the wars today’s military fights. America cannot really lose, only be worn down and leave. If the US “loses” in Afghanistan or Syria, it won’t matter to Americdans and few will even notice. Because America always fights from well-protected bases and airfields, it can afford to use weapons that require a lot of maintenance, often including high-tech work. In a real war, no.

In WWII, a fighter plane was just a malformed truck: engine, windshield, tires, motor, stamped metal. If one came back full of holes, repair crews with reasonable training could repair them fast on the hangar deck. It wasn’t quite pop rivets and Bondo, but close.

After the Big War, American aircraft almost always flew from relatively safe bases. For example, in Vietnam the carriers were never in danger. After Vietnam the aerial forces seldom even suffered battle damage. Since the US was always attacking utterly inferior enemies, sortie rates and repair time ceased to matter.

And the military came to expect such luxury.

But now we have the F-35, the latest do-everything fighter of grotesque cost. It seems to be a real dog, poorly designed and suffering from endless problems. By accounts in the technical press, it is a hangar queen with very low sortie rates, poor readiness, and requiring complex electronic maintenance often at remote echelons.

This isn’t how you fight a real war.

How Wars Turn Out

Typically, not as planned. I’ve said this before but it is worth repeating. Look at history:

The American Civil War was supposed to last a day at First Manassas; wrong by four years and 650,000 dead. Napoleon thought his attack on Russia would end with the French in Moscow, not the Russians in Paris–which is what happened. WWI was supposed to last weeks and be a war of movement; wrong by four bloody years of trench warfare. The Japanese Army did not expect WWII to end with GIs buying their daughters drinks in Tokyo, nor the Germans that it would end with the Russian infantry in Berlin. The Americans did not think they would lose in Vietnam, nor the Russians that they would lose in Afghanistan. And so on.

This happens partly because militaries are overconfident as a job requirement. You can’t tell the Marines that they are at best mediocre light infantry or the Navy that it is essentially a target setl. Instead the American armed forces are always said to be the best equipped, best trained, bravest, most formidable military that the world has ever seen. Except they aren’t.

Assume that Bolton gets his war against Iran. Advisers tell him it will be short and sweet, surgical, a cake walk. Have we heard this before? The Navy says it can keep Hormuz open, grrr, woof. But somehow Iran doesn’t follow the script, doesn’t surrender. The Navy to its surprise cannot find the deeply dug-in and truck-borne antiship missiles that keep hitting tankers. These keep burning. Soon nobody will insure them. They stop coming. Three weeks into the war the world is screaming for oil, there is no end in sight, Trump can’t admit that he has blundered, and Bolton wants to nuke Tehran.

Or Washington pushes too hard in the South China Sea, an accidental collision turns into a shooting incident, and the Pompeo-Boltonian Bannonites order the fleet to teach the Chinks a lesson. Unfortunately the Chinese antiship missiles turn out to be rather better than expected, a carrier is disabled and three destroyers rendered scrap.

Now what? Huge and uninformed egos in Washington could not accept defeat. For one thing, it would end American credibility as a hegemon, and everybody and his herd of goats would want to buy Chinese antiship missiles. Vanity plays a larger in world affairs than the textbooks say. Washington, stupidly but inevitably, would double down and start an all-out war with China. At that point things would become unpredictable.

Nuclear War

Men of incalculable stupidity and likely sexual inadequacy talk about nuclear war as winnable. Dream on. Reflect: American cities cannot feed themselves. Three days without food shipments and New Yorkers would clear the supermarket shelves. A week and they would kill for cans of tuna fish. Two weeks and they would be eating each other. A very few nuclear bombs on transportation hubs would prevent distribution of food for months. Even fewer cobalt bombs, designed to produce a maximum of lingering radiation, would make the farm belts lethally radioactive for a decade.

“Defense Intellectuals,” usually stupid enough that they ought to live in trees, chatter about escalation dominance and the intimidation factor and airtight missile defense. They are nuts. What they really need is a codpiece and a subscription to Pornhub Premium.

This is why it is a really, really, bad idea to have a psychopathic cockatoo, two loon Christians, and a pathologically aggressive momma’s boy in a position to start a war.

Other Stuff

In response to occasional email from readers: Nursing home care in the US is a notorious scam, costing hugerly. It is lots cheaper in Mexico and,as best i can determine, care is much better. Anyway, Lakesidecare is an example that has been around for a long time. Note PBS video coverage if interested.

Write Fred at [email protected]. Be sure to put the letter “pdq” somewhere in the subject line to prevent heartless deletion by anti-spam software.

Hardboiled is back! Gritty crime fiction by longtime police reporter for the Washington Times. who knows the police from nine years of riding with them. Guaranteed free of white wine and cheese, sensitivity, or social justice. Not recommended for Democrats, has been linked to apoplexy in feminists. What the critics are saying: Psychology Today: “Fred deserves his own entry in the DSM-V.” Ms. Magazine Aaaaaaagh!”

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, John Bolton, Neocons 
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  1. Good article. I’ve got not a thing to disagree with on this one. I will add one more thing though. You don’t start a war with your major supplier. It may not be the major assemblies, but all of these high-dollar weapons systems have got to have electronics that themselves have parts made in China. Imagine the US calling for a cease-fire with China in order to await a container shipment of Chinese-made electronic chips for our weapons.

    Worse yet, I can see some back-door functionality built in to where all those LEDs that show steady when operating normally all start blinking at the same time. See Peak Stupidity on “Toward Peak Necoon?” – Part 1 and Part 2, written 2 1/2 years before this Fred Reed column.

  2. Stop being mean to Trump!

    • Agree: Fuerchtegott
    • Replies: @restless94110
    , @Herald
  3. the large numbers of military women who are now in combat positions

    Define “large”.
    Using 2018 numbers, the USMC had 93 women in combat billets. Only 11 of those were in infantry. The U.S. Army had roughly 600 females in combat roles.
    Have those numbers doubled in the past year? Tripled?

    Between the Dogfaces and the Jarheads, and their reserve components, you have 1,200,000 troops. Say 1 in 10 of those troops are point of the spear, combat troops. And say we now have 2100 females among them. Divide 2100 by 120,000 and you get 0.0175. Is that a large number? If you have 12 man squads you would have 10,000 squads. 2100 would have a female in them. 7900 would be all male.

    Do women belong in combat units? No. Are there large numbers of women in combat units? Not to my mind.

    Do women belong on ships or in tactical aircraft? No.

    Is Fred using undefined terms as a scare tactic? Decide for yourself.

  4. peterAUS says:

    A quick and dirty job.

    Several surprising, for the author, assertions in the article.
    On top of it, how to put it, quite “one-sided”.

    One element, quite important, left simply hanging in the air. Another, almost of the same importance, the same.

    Interesting.

    As for the comments, I guess it will be simply the repetition of the usual.
    Understandable.

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
    , @Poupon Marx
  5. Good article. Too bad it will not be read by the policy wonks at the: “Five-sided wind tunnel” or a significant number of members of: “A Global Force For Good” or “An Army Of One.” Having served in the Army during the Viet Nam War(I did not go overseas) I was ridden hard and put away wet many times during infantry training. After an eight-year break in service, I enlisted in the Reserves in 1979 and saw what leftist idiots like Patsy Schroeder had done to my Army.
    There were no more WACS. You had “Enlisted Women” within your ranks who all sang the same tune from the Broadway hit: ANNIE GET YOUR GUN(“anything you can do…”). The grueling 5-event PT test had been phased out for something a lot simpler the girls could pass. I saw two PFC’s go all the way to WO1 on their backs. Most of the service troops had first names such as Tyrone, Tony, Mondre, Deshawn, Tamika, and Shalonda. You get the picture.
    As a certified, seventy-something geezer, I just sit back and watch it all morph into something corrupt and bizarre from a parallel universe. I feel the bile rise in my throat over all of my honest-earned wealth which is being confiscated by the Leviathan to support the MIC, Bolton and his minions, and the Romans 13 robots who comprise the Israel Amen Corner. The Deus ex Machina event, when it happens, will be horrific.

    • Replies: @Rev. Spooner
  6. peterAUS says:
    @Chris Mallory

    Is Fred using undefined terms as a scare tactic?

    Among other things. He’s projecting a certain image, for some reasons.

    The interesting question, I guess, is : what are those reasons?

  7. @Colin Wright

    Agreed. A great article only marred by the stupid use of “cockatoo” for a popular President. Making Fred a stupid idiot.

    Great article otherwise.

    I’ve got a t-shirt for your wife to wear, Fred. It says: I’m With Stupid.

    Great article though, Stupid.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @Libertt Mike
    , @TJM
  8. @Chris Mallory

    Well done. There was one nit on that article and you picked it.

    • Replies: @Chris Mallory
  9. Which Gen Z, born in 2000 or 2001, would volunteer to serve in the US military? What are you kidding me? They’d laugh. Bush was barely able to convince a few to volunteer 18 years ago. Now Bush is remembered as an alcoholic bum.

    Nobody loves America enough to go somewhere and die for it. There are Americans who’d rather live in Hong Kong than the US. Half of Gen Y, perhaps. Which one of them would volunteer to fight China?

    What a huge joke.

    What does the US do for anyone that would motivate them to be patriotic? Homelessness? Mexicans taking their jobs?

    It is scary how far the US fell apart since the late nineties when Clinton was president. Maybe he was responsible for setting the wheels in motion but to get an idea of how much Gen Z love the US see how many volunteer.

    You might get 10.

  10. dearieme says:
    @Chris Mallory

    Fred can speak for himself. I must say that my interpretation was that he was using women metaphorically, as a stand-in for all the groups who get jobs as a matter of privilege, be it sex privilege, race privilege, or son-of-an-admiral privilege.

  11. anon[930] • Disclaimer says:

    Friend of mine was an officer in the Dutch army. Told me how they had to order ammunition for battletanks.
    Someone thought 50.000 rounds were needed for the few dozens tanks the Dutch army then had.
    So they did research and found that a battletank in a war sitituation fires an average of 17 rounds before it is destroyed or wrecked itself. If I remember correctly, they then ordered something like 30 live-rounds per tank.

    He has many of these kinds of stories and it never stops to amaze me how much it costs and how many people are involved to get the actual fighting done.
    But, maybe that is a good thing.

    • Replies: @Rev. Spooner
  12. This is why it is a really, really, bad idea to have a psychopathic cockatoo. . . in a position to start a war.

    It wasn’t the cockatoo in question, but rather his opponent, who wanted to establish a no-fly zone over Syria, which would have involved shooting down Russian planes.

  13. …that and going to war with Russia over the Ukraine.

  14. … ninety percent of the Senate does not know where Burma is.

    But the MSM starts playing scenes of unspeakable horrors befalling the poor Rohingya, and the hoi polloi lift their skirts and exclaim, “Oh, we must send our brave boys and girls to stop this genocide,” and boom … our leaders can find Burma, or at least Myanmar, on a map. Same thing happened in Somalia, IIRC.

    Of course the real story is that Burma is ideally situated for annoying China, and they want in on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but hey, we’re the good guys, we wouldn’t interfere like that.

    • Replies: @PJ London
  15. @Rabbitnexus

    It isn’t just Fred. This ” All out combat troops are now women” meme has been floating around for a while. There are plenty of reasons to criticize the US military. Claiming large numbers of female infantry troopers only makes you look like a fool. Facts matter.

    • Replies: @Rabbitnexus
    , @another fred
  16. Nothing in Burma or around the Caspian Sea are any business of the U.S. government or any responsibility of the American tax payer.

    • Agree: JMcG
  17. Daddio7 says:

    Of course ALL militaries suffer from the same disease. We Americans are perfectly safe here as our anti ship missiles are just as good. Sure, Iran can stop 20% of the worlds oil but then will cease to exist as a nation as all of their power plants and bridges are destroyed. That is what B2s are for and they know it. China will not go to war with the US, their economy would be in tatters in a matter of weeks. So they own the South China sea, if it is devoid of cargo ships what have they won?

    • Replies: @gT
    , @lysias
    , @foolisholdman
  18. @Jeff Stryker

    See Jeffy for some of us this our home. Going somewhere else to fight isn’t doing anything for America. But we will defend our homes.

    As for the cowards who move to Asia or the Middle East, good riddance. They were probably take Americans any way.

  19. anonymous[321] • Disclaimer says:

    Article cuts right to the point. The MIC is there just for the money and can’t be gotten rid of since there’s too many who benefit from it. All American wars have been wars of choice where they went looking for it overseas. One characteristic feature is that the US looks for weakness and vulnerability in those it chooses to attack. That’s why there’ll be no war with Russia, China, etc since those countries can defend themselves. There’s been a lot of egging on for war with Iran with all the chickenhawks claiming it’d be a cakewalk and all that but the few people who still have some reason within the system have probably pointed out the dangers. It’s a country of about 90M after all, not an easy target. It’d be nice to be able to spend some of the money sucked into the black hole of the MIC on things like health care for (legal) Americans for after all we’d be spending our money on ourselves rather than on this parasitical albatross. Won’t happen though. One thing is that so far despite all the rhetoric and bluster Trump hasn’t started any new wars, at least not yet, so he’s shown some good sense in this regard. Unlike the last three, Clinton-Bush-Obama, who’ve had one war after another. So we’ve had a break so far.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  20. Jim Smith says:

    Good article, other than the stupid hostility toward Trump, who campaigned on getting us out of Afghanistan and Syria as well as other meaningless places. Of course when he tried to act on those promises, he was promptly and publicly squelched by the Deep State and MIC. So give blame where it’s due, and don’t put it on Trump, who’s doing his best in very trying circumstances.

    • Replies: @bluedog
  21. Bill H says: • Website
    @Chris Mallory

    One female who can destroy me with a false accusation is a large number.

  22. Great article. The book looks like fun. Is there an audio version? Anybody option the movie rights?

    On another subject, since Fred knows Washington DC, I’d like Fred to maybe look into the Seth Rich and Aaron Rich controversy. It appears that Russiagate is a hoax. Seth and Aaron Rich allegedly stole the DNC emails and sold them to Wikileaks.

    Seth Rich is dead, but Aaron is still alive so Julian Assange can’t reveal his source for the DNC hack. We’ve had two people, Seymour Hersh and Ellen Ratner point in this direction. What does Fred think about it?

    Ms. Ratner:

    Assange:

  23. In response to occasional email from readers: Nursing home care in the US is a notorious scam, costing hugerly. It is lots cheaper in Mexico.

    Compare the price to the income of the average Mexican. The average Mexican would go broke paying for that “cheaper” price.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  24. Brendan says:

    It wouldn’t be a Fred Reed column if it didn’t endlessly shit on America.

  25. @peterAUS

    “The interesting question, I guess, is : what are those reasons?”

    Peter,
    The truth…coupled with a healthy dose of fear and loathing, I would expect….

  26. Pericles says:
    @Chris Mallory

    Do women belong on ships or in tactical aircraft? No.

    No worries — I’ve been told women in the navy by coincidence become pregnant right before deployment. Just put in their understudies, which I’m sure are raring to go. What, there are no understudies?

  27. The scalpel says: • Website

    It looks like Trump reads Fred’s column. Bolton is gone

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
  28. Burma…Myanmar?

    Who cares but a bunch of wogs? Not Mr. Reed.

    Women in combat? Is the number large?

    One women in a 12 person squad would be enough I’d hazard to guess to render it ineffective. (I’ve seen larger groups torn apart by women who shouldn’t have been in them.) Thus reducing the effective force by ca. 20 %. And that’s assuming the women only degrade their own squads, and no movement between squads. And that’s limiting the ill effects to the squad level, ignoring the fact that entire rank structure is susceptible to charges of mistreatment and to the tendency of conducting themselves so as to avoid charges.

    • Agree: Carroll Price
  29. gT says:
    @Daddio7

    The US has supersonic anti-ship missiles???? Bwa! ha! ha! ha!

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  30. “Assume that Bolton gets his war against Iran. Advisers tell him it will be short and sweet, surgical, a cake walk. Have we heard this before?”

    Bolton won’t get his war. He resigned under pressure from Trump today.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  31. @Brendan

    I agree, and per Mr. Huffman just above your comment, I will again state that the expatriate lifestyle can be a very good deal, just until the dollar loses its luster. Based on, just as an example, the points that Mr. Reed rightly made in this very article, the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency will not last for that much longer.

    When the US dollar falls, that nursing home may need to be paid in pesos, and your SS check may not cover your whole month – best find a senorita who loves you as a Gonzo journalist and not for your money, I guess.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  32. Good article by Fred! It isn’t so much that the U.S. military has been unused, but that it has been used in wars that may not prepare it particularly well for a near-peer adversary. I have a few thoughts.

    The debate over the vulnerability of aircraft carriers has been going on for many years. I lack the technical expertise to make a good assessment, but I suspect that they are less vulnerable than the anti-ship missile enthusiasts think they are. Carriers can take battle damage and keep on functioning. The problem is, they may have to, and repairs underway and in sustained combat is not a skill the Navy has had to practice for many years. There’s a similar debate concerning tanks and anti-tank measures, yet tanks keep showing up on battlefields.

    One vulnerability of the U.S. military that Fred didn’t mention are extended lines of communication. In almost any of the potentially military conflicts in which the U.S. is presently involved (Venezuela excepted) American forces would be operating at the end of, and hugely dependent on, a very extended logistical train. In any conflict lasting very long, the enemy may simply aim at the more vulnerable ships and planes carrying the supplies, spare parts, and reinforcements. They might even mine U.S. harbors and I wonder what mine sweeping capabilities the Navy keeps at Norfolk, Port Canaveral or San Diego? And when was the last time the merchant marine sailed in convoy? The “sinews of war” might prove very brittle, even if the carriers and stealth bombers are able to survive and destroy targets.

    The lack of experience in a sustained high-intensity campaign also means that the U.S. military is untested for many years in a situation resembling Iwo Jima or the Huertgen Forest, generating heavy casualties in very difficult terrain. And in the event of a defeat necessitating retreat, would the U.S. be capable of an orderly withdrawal under fire (the most difficult of military moves to pull off) or would it degenerate into Task Force Smith in the early days of Korea? I’m skeptical that a racially diverse, with even a few women and homosexuals thrown in, could achieve such a maneuver.

    Unfortunately, the probable U.S. response to a serious defeat would be to reach for nuclear weapons. Even here, the news isn’t so good; a couple of National Nuclear Security Administration modernization programs have just slipped 18 to 24 months and I have seen surprisingly candid statements from the NNSA that the reliability of the existing stockpile isn’t all that good, given the age of the stockpile and the lack of testing. In any even, when i attended the Naval War College, our class was told that every time the Pentagon war gamed the use of tactical nuclear weapons (albeit in central Europe) it escalated into a strategic nuclear exchange, with millions of dead, in between 3 and 7 days.

    If the U.S. had a less aggressive foreign policy, these might be just interesting subjects for debate (how good, for exampe, is the Swiss military)? So, while I’m glad to see John Bolton is out of the picture, the chance of the U.S. getting involved in a serious war, irrespective of any benefit to the American people, remains high.

    On the other hand, a serious military defeat might lead those American people to conclude that their leadership needs a top-to-bottom change, involving rope and lampposts.

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
    , @Corvinus
    , @Parbes
  33. @restless94110

    You apparently have a novel conception of “popular.”

    • Replies: @WJ
    , @restless94110
  34. @Chris Mallory

    Perhaps Jeff’s observation is predicated upon the fact that very few Americans have actually defended their homes.

  35. “America is in process of acquiring B-21 intercontinental nuclear bombers for a frightening price.”

    This is the problem. War planners are not free to buy whatever they want; they are supposed to buy what the unions want to build. So we end-up with the F-35 Do Nothing. The only solution in the long term is to get rid of the unions. But that won’t be easy. If they strike, there will be shortages of war supplies. Is that treason? I think so. I wonder what would happen if fifty or so union leaders went to prison for threatening a shut-down during a war. After all, it might be necessary to cut union salaries by 30% as an emergency cost saving measure.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
    , @JMcG
    , @bluedog
    , @Jt
  36. @Ray Huffman

    Mr. Huffman,

    Compare the price to the income of the average Mexican. The average Mexican would go broke paying or that “cheaper” price.

    Your statement would be correct if not that the average Mexican family operate on a more personal level when it comes down to the Senior Members. The “Cheaper” price is being used by the most well to do people in society. We the average middle to upper middle class Mexicans, still go by our time honored tradition of taking care of our parents. Usually it’s a shared experience, sometimes the single daughter stays with them or a caregiver hired for assistance, but most Mexicans will die at home surrounded by family members. Just like my dad did and my mom will when her time comes, because I am here with her and my girlfriend loves her and handles the more personal side of elderly care.

    I just thought I’d give my very personal opinion on the subject, sir! We’re not all, drug dealers, rapists and murderers….south of the border, as your eloquent leader would like you to think!

    J.G.

    • Agree: Montefrío
  37. john proko says: • Website

    pdq World War 3 Will be fought in the middle East….Russia and Iran and Syria will attack Jerusalem. Israel will win ……Will take Israel 6 months to bury the dead.

  38. @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree, it is a smart move to cash in your checks and keep it in pesos, any additional dollars should be used to purchase gram or less units of silver and then gold pieces, not paper. The SS check will effect everyone the same, you will not receive one! Mexicans are good people and will not watch you starve, like they are going to do in the US. There is plenty of land to grow food, so be sure to join a co-op group or start one. Other than that, the only thing I have left to say is, “We will all “Hunker Down” and hope the “Stupid” Americans don’t try and invade and take what they want!

    Mexicans, Ex-Pats and Bad Hombres will be fighting side by side with our Military to stop you! I think everyone has had enough of your endless greed, and whoever made the move to leave it will fight against it! Nothing personal Mr. Newman, we have had this conversation before and we’re on the same page, I’m sure.

    It’s for the White Supremasist on this site…you have to laugh when you say those two words together! LOL I know I misspelled Supremesists, I have no use for it and my spell check is not working…

    I also shared with Mr. Huffman, regarding our Senior Citizens. I hope all is well with you Mr. Newman…

  39. Don’t always agree with you, Mr. Reed, but I like your style, so I just bought your two mysteries. We shall see. I expect to laff, at least. You usually bring out that reaction in me.

  40. @Chris Mallory

    Chris Mallory, let me enlighten you on how things work. Your loyalty is that in the same as the Loyalty expected when you are part of a Mafia, Drug Cartel or Terrorist Group. You understand me, but worse… because you have a choice not to support their criminal behavior. Jeff Stryker is guy that I have nothing in common with, yet he at least had the sense to not support the dirty deeds your government has committed against innocent men, women and children!

    Take note of the “word” I used “innocent”, got it! Because like you I will defend my country from any intruder. Unlike you, I refuse to support a Criminal Government that kills innocent people! A soldier is fair game in time of war, but a 3 year old baby is not! You understand me motherfucker! No one has ever invaded the USA, dummy! On the other hand, the US has done it over one hundred times, all over the world, to different peoples. Your loyalty is to the people that cause wars, my loyalty is to the people that are affected by them.

    You are one Stupid Patriot!

    And Fuck You Jeff Stryker, I still don’t like you!

    • LOL: Richard B
  41. lysias says:
    @Daddio7

    How do we bomb Iran when the Iranians have Russian air defense? How do we bomb Iran after our GPS satellites are taken out?

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
    , @Rumpole5
  42. Anon[974] • Disclaimer says:

    The US military is mostly a jobs program now. I don’t imagine these kids going toe-to-toe with a highly determined, professional and near-peer rival like China or Russia. As Fred points out, obesity in the armed forces has at least doubled since 2000, perhaps tripled. They don’t take their jobs seriously, and I expect that attitude to carry over in a conflict. You can tell the Pentagon thinks this, too. They abandoned the INF so they can use nuclear weapons in a losing conflict against China. There are also systemic, near conflict fatal, problems in the military’s procurement process. It might shock you to learn that the military may run out of missiles with no way to replace them in a conflict with China because the United States obtains the chemicals used in these systems almost totally from China. They don’t think there will be a conflict, and if there is, they think they’ll lose and have to resort to using nukes.

    The military has a lot of problems. Naval ships like the LCS are poorly armoured and not designed to fight peer rivals. America’s navy fields largely inferior S2S weapons with limited ranges, although they claim a replacement system is on the way. American commanders (or the civilians they listen to) don’t always understand the intricacies of large-scale conflict anymore: the navy has built a fleet of nuclear submarines that are too large to operate in the straight of Taiwan effectively. COIN doctrine has left a force structure not suited to combating either Russia or China. The F-35 is unproven and may end up a disaster. The F-22 was prematurely canceled and 4th generation fighters are nearing obsolescence (already totally obsolete against the S-400 or any modern air defense system superior to the S-300). The military is also finding it difficult to recruit quality soldiers, and the force is highly susceptible to an identitarian democrat coming in an ruining things through social engineering. Here’s a short list:

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
  43. @anonymous

    anon 321,

    Trump hasn’t started any new wars.

    That statement is one great thing that has also surprised me…A lifelong Democrat and now living in Mexico…I have come to hate all Politicians (North and South of the Border), because they are a parasitic breed that need to be dealt with in Mexico as well as in the USA. The previous President and his circle of “Criminal Compadres” have left the country and are under investigation for corruption, theft and treason. Germany, Spain, England and the US are where they ran.

    Israeli high tech companies tracked “news reporters” and handed them over to hit squads when they reported about the corruption. That’s why so many reporters have been murdered in Mexico. In the US you don’t have that problem, the news reporters are part of the corruption. Our new President is a Nationalist, not a Communist, but the US MSM portray him as a Leftist, Socialist, Communist, Like Hugo Chavez, etc.

    Neoliberalizm is a plague that will consume the West! That shit has to be stopped, like we did here in Mexico. Trump needs to chill on the Latino Hatred and I will guarantee you, we will stand with the US…The Deep State want the US to invade Venezuela and that is a bad mistake….If it was up to them you would be in Iran, N. Korea, Venezuela, etc.

    I am having a hard time understanding Trump…but, yeah he hasn’t started more wars!!!

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  44. Ace says:

    Fred, Vietnam was an American military victory. Democrats in Congress turned it into a political defeat.

    Frank Snepp has the story.

    • Replies: @SwissArmyMan
  45. @john proko

    John Proko,

    “Israel will win the war.”

    If we take your senerio and look at the Bible End Times writings or the Cu’ran’s study in Escotology you are correct in you comment. But they also say that Israel will become a World Power after that war. And that means for Israel to Rule the World, China and the US will have to be involved. So, I say to you “Ole Prophet” where do you see the US and China in this prediction? Because I see them right in the middle of that war…please respond! I have more for you “Enlightened One”!

  46. anon[645] • Disclaimer says:

    “The only solution in the long term is to get rid of the unions.”

    IMHO: That’s an old school way of looking at things that’s probably not valid anymore. The military’s problems go waaaaay beyond unions. There’s a broken procurement process that relies on foreign imports that will be cut off in a serious conflict; it also disperses expensive projects like the F-35 over so many states as to make the programs virtually immune to cancellation, even if they are disasters. The top commanders are more politician than warrior. The military doesn’t know what weapons systems they want or need (the marines are responsible for fouling up the F-35 with vertical takeoff system even though that same system was a disaster in the Harrier, a fact largely unknown to the public but you’d think the brass would at least be aware). There are recruiting and conduct problems galore. Congress is often out of its depth in overseeing military finances. The military doesn’t trust them, so they obfuscate their ledgers while congress and the White House are busy making them buy things they don’t need and cancelling things they do (the F-22). Various doctrines focused on fighting terrorism and patrolling shallow territorial waters have hampered the navy’s ability to fight peer rivals (the LCS is a disaster as originally planned and not a proper supplement or replacement to the A. Burke). There’s a huge monopoly crisis that has lowered innovation while increasing costs. Many naval antiship weapons are obsolete with shorter ranges compared with Russian counterparts. It’s also not clear to me whether the modern navy can operate effectively in an environment where the military does not have 1) air superiority 2) satellites. Unions are small potatoes compared to all of that.

    • Replies: @Piglet
  47. @Ron B Liebermann

    Mr. Libermann,

    “The only solution in the long term is to get rid of the Unions.”

    I thought Jews supported Unions! Didn’t you people murder the Zhar and his entire family in the name of the Workers? You Zionists are so confused….or are you just conniving?

  48. Well done, I could not agree more. You have pointed out all the problems we have, and have had, since I was SOF in the mid-50’s.

  49. joemama says:

    Today’s military is nothing more than ebt for the minorities. A haven for lesbians, transvestites, homosexuals, man boys, gangs, thugs and those apes who couldn’t be cops. Women combat leaders? Negro women manning weapons on a ship, graduating West Point as officers……LOL LOL. This mix sinks the USA in a real fighting war. However, cw2 this mix is will never survive a 4 g assault.

  50. Edzo says:

    Many “combat support” jobs are actually performed in the forward edge of the battle area . Those people will be involved in combat. There used to be a LOT of females in those jobs. There might still be.

  51. @Ace

    Ace said:

    “Fred, Vietnam was an American military victory. Democrats in Congress turned it into a political defeat.”

    If as you say Vietnam was a victory, I feel compelled to point out we could have accomplished
    the exact same thing with five dead rather than fifty thousand poor conscripted suckers.

  52. PT says:

    An ex-US Navy officer once told me that the navy divides all ships’ classifications as either submarines or targets

  53. Dd says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    “Nobody loves America enough to go somewhere and die for it”

    Of course. Because for the past 50 years we’ve gone somewhere else and died for nothing. Iraq Afghanistan Vietnam etc etc

    The United States defends Europe with no cost to Europeans or very little cost.. the United States defends South Korea. The United States defends The Straits of Hormuz when we are energy independent.

    And I speak from the Viewpoint with a son who is the tip of the spear.

  54. peterAUS says:

    This topic pops up here regularly. Understandable.

    The letter and spirit of the article depend on the author’s agenda. Both foreign and domestic.

    The funny thing, always, is that “double thinking”.

    If US armed forces are to be engaged abroad they are weak/incompetent etc. Like, “no way “we” can take on Iran”.

    Hehe…at the same time, the same armed forces are capable of squashing a secession within US borders in a short time span and with ease.
    All those shortcomings, LOGISTICS and MOTIVATION in particular, simply don’t count anymore.
    The transformation from a bunch of fat, incompetent, unmotivated, disorganized, blah..blah…outfit into an unstoppable juggernaut is instant.

    Understandable. In this online pub, that is.

    • Replies: @Rev. Spooner
  55. @Chris Mallory

    I know it is a common refrain these days. I was in the Australian infantry when women were first starting to join up. Having just 2 women in our platoon was the biggest change to army culture, training and field work I ever saw. Thee days along with it being in our faces everywhere from schools, to Hollywood, from tarrghe workplace to the frontlines of combat the feminist and LGBTQ narrative has become the dominant one so you cannot blame Fred or anyone who opposes it of using it as it is presented.

    Anyway my point here was that in an otherwise excellent article this minor example was hardly worthy of mention.

  56. Every Reed column is just a long-winded pep talk to himself that he really did make the right move by fleeing to a Mexican ghetto. Good luck in your long-term care facility.

    • Replies: @Giuseppe
  57. Giuseppe says:
    @Chris Mallory

    True. Also knowing where Burma is on the map, and knowing all of the countries littoral to the Caspian Sea, are two quite different things. Can I get credit for three out of five?

  58. Alfred says:
    @Dd

    The United States defends Europe with no cost to Europeans

    You have this backwards. The Russians gave their sector of Germany back to the Germans as did the French. The Americans and British are hanging on to their occupation. Drones over Afghanistan are controlled from Germany. How exactly does that contribute to the security of Germany?

    Putting nuclear-capable missiles in Romania and Poland is not in any way useful for defending these countries. It merely makes them targets for Russia. Putin has stated that the next war will not be fought on Russian soil.

    • Agree: By-tor
  59. J says: • Website

    True, all fighting forces deteriorate in peace times. Peace allows peoples and politicians to believe unreal things. But in this aspect, the USA is in better situation than its potential rivals China and Russia (and the Europeans). The USA is constantly engaged in small actual, real wars, far from its coasts. The fight in Iraq was real, it was easily won, and a great cadre of battle-tested officer cadre emerged from it. Everything in Israel’s wars is available for the Americans. In the Persian Gulf and in East Asia, the Navy is engaged in real operations. And about the snowflakes on opium, yes, they will fight like their grandfathers – if needed.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  60. SafeNow says:

    Worth mentioning is that two destroyers were fairly recently struck by slow-moving merchant ships. (Some wag commented that this is like a Chevy Corvette being struck by a bulldozer, on the Bonneville Salt Flats, while a trained team is responsible for keeping the Corvette from being hit.) If that, what else?

    In 1920, the Times of London conducted a headline contest. The winner was: “Archduke Franz Ferdinand Alive; World War Fought By Mistake.”

  61. Giuseppe says:
    @Bragadocious

    Are you are being held in a cave somewhere, a gun to your head, forced to read Fred’s columns against your will, or you are just an ignoramus troll? Because, you are not entertaining.

  62. @Jeff Stryker

    > Which one of them would volunteer to fight China?

    I have a 21 year old son, who mostly has similar opinions to me. For some reason he really has a bug up his butt for China (I don’t hold any China-specific animosity). If he was drafted to go to war somewhere else he would likely go, but he said if we ever go to war with China, he’s signing up to go fight.

    Yes, it’s an ‘N’ of 1, so your point still stands. But not all of Gen Z would actively seek to sit on the sidelines.

    • Replies: @Biff
  63. “Unused Militaries”?

    When was the last time that Red Chinese, Russian, North Korean, or South Korean armed forces fought an all-out war?

    The U.S. military is not “unused,” it’s just been misused.

  64. TJM says: • Website

    Fred Reed is my favorite writer on UNZ and at Lew Rockwell and here on Earth. Fred has been there. He keeps his eyes open and doesn’t have any preconceptions. He’s also very witty and has read a lot of history and been through it himself.
    Read the James Jones trilogy, starting with “From Here to Eternity” if you want to know the truth about the USA military. Or you can read “Catch-22”. The military hasn’t changed, as Fred points out.

    Also Fred Reed is right about nursing homes. I HATE nursing homes. Don’t put your loved ones in one. Just don’t. Trust me on this one.

    Finally, as a seaplane mechanic, retired, of 25 years plus, who knows airplanes; the F-18 is a fine aircraft, but the Navy only has enough spare parts to keep maybe enough F-18’s in the air for two aircraft carriers at sea at a time.

    I’ve toured the F-18 plant in St. Louis. Those planes are a lot bigger than you think and very complicated. My brother worked there.

    Read the works of James Jones and you will see.

  65. Anonymous[124] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dd

    You conflate occupying, intimidating, exploiting and micromanaging the affairs of other countries with “defending” them. It has been generations since the United States truly “defended” those countries you mentioned, because no other power has been threatening them, let alone attacking them–not even economically the way Washington loves to threaten and attack foreign countries on the slightest pretext.

    Attempting to deprive Germany of Russian natural gas, extracting more tribute in the form of dues payments to NATO, tearing up the civilian landscape with military exercises to counter imaginary Russian “aggression” (Russia remains entirely within its own borders, as does China; American troops go halfway round the world looking to gratuitously raise hell, and occupy most of the globe if you count its >800 overseas military bases), positioning nuclear-tipped missiles pointed at Russia from Poland and Romania making those countries immediate targets for counterstrikes, and generally mucking up the European economy through onerous mandatory sanctions against Russia (with little cost to the US itself and now extended extensively to China and Iran) offers nothing in the way of any honest or needed “defense” of any part of the European peninsula. Just who does the American government feign defending in Iran and Venezuela that makes the tyrants in Washington want to “liberate” them the way it has the millions of its victims in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and even in countries were the fighting is kept secret (like Mali and Niger) or limited to drone strikes (like Pakistan)?

    These are all things done by a hubristic hegemon to force disrespected vassal states to lick its boots. What the entirety of Europe needs is a better defense against the whims and abuses of North American tyrants and more reciprocal trade with the eastern reaches of its own Eurasian landmass. It sure doesn’t need to be cut off from ample products and resources that can be supplied cheaply and fairly by its own neighbors and forced to buy higher priced American substitutes just to prop up the fanatical but fraying regime headquartered in Langley, Alexandria and Manhattan. Why take orders from a distant dysfunctional autocracy clearly destroying itself from within?

    • Agree: niceland, By-tor
  66. TJM says: • Website
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Once we start a war with China, we all die. Don’t worry about the parts supply.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  67. TJM says: • Website
    @Chris Mallory

    You are arguing about termites in a house built on sand.

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
  68. TJM says: • Website
    @restless94110

    “Cockatoo” is a very clever description of Trump. And I support Trump, but let’s face it. He’s a cockatoo. He’s no JFK or Ron Paul. Trump isn’t Hillary and that’s why he’s in the White House.

    • Replies: @restless94110
  69. anaccount says:

    I just saw this on MSN shortly after reading this article.

    “The USS Gabrielle Giffords, a sleek, speedy, low-profile littoral combat ship, left San Diego earlier this month carrying the US Navy’s new Naval Strike Missile and a drone helicopter that helps aim it.”

    LOL

  70. keywacat says:
    @Chris Mallory

    Nor is Afghanistan, Syria, the South China Sea or any other dozens of places US troops are running around in.

  71. GI Joe says:

    The current military is obsolete, in the future drones and robots will rule the day.
    AI will take over like in the Terminator movies.

    • Replies: @Alexandros
  72. GI Joe says:

    GPS is obsolete replaced by INS for navigation.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  73. Fred,

    This article is absolute dynamite and written with your usual aplomb. It is clearly based on your experience with the U.S. military, politicians and their misguided thinking and confusion between defense and offense.

    The United States of America has a military presence in +/- 177 sovereign countries around the world deploying almost 200,000 personnel at any given time. This includes thousands in Germany (34,000), Japan (39,000) and South Korea (23,000) at enormous cost to the U.S. taxpayer as per the following link –

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-military-personnel-deployments-country/.

    Why?

    If the citizens in America are ever allowed to vote in a nationwide referendum on this woeful waste of money, the politicians and military would be blown out by the level of refusal!

    Freda

  74. @Jeff Stryker

    What the fuck does “serving” in the US military have to do with patriotism?

  75. Amerikastan
    Amerikastan

    Wants to fight Russia and China
    Syria and North Korea
    Venezuela and Iran.

    Amerikastan
    Amerikastan

    Can’t even beat

    The Taliban.

  76. Tom Welsh says:

    “A plunging hypersonic terminally-guided ballistic missile, piercing the flight deck and exploding in the hangar deck, would require a year in the repair yards”.

    After they scrape the remains off the ocean floor.

  77. Al Lipton says:

    Great article except for the compulsory inclusion of Trump bashing, as Hollywood flicks each include a dash of rabid anti Christian propaganda. I think Fred bashes Trump because his wife does not like a border wall between Mexico and the US.

    Every time I see Trump bashing, I expect that the basher has in mind a better, or much better, alternative to Trump. And each time the Trump basher has absolutely none.

    America will be forever grateful to Donald Trump for defeating Bill Clinton’s old wife and the swamp that she was about to bring in with her. Consider just the SCOTUS and the half-dead bat refusing to let go because of Trump being the President. This alone is achievement enough to be thankful for Trump in the White House. His other achievements are usually not reported or falsely reported by the Fake Stream. Trump is a fighter like no one else in DC.

    Bolton is gone for good. Trump was probably strongly pressured by the Deep State to hire him, and so he did. Kept him for a little like he once kept Omarosa and let him go. Bolton managed to do no harm to the country and now he is arguing whether he resigned or was fired. The noisy reactions from the swamp and Fake Stream are most telling. Watch yesterday’s Tucker for details.

    I already dread 2024.

  78. Tom Welsh says:
    @Chris Mallory

    Chris, you really should set Wikipedia right about its incorrect figures.

    “As of fiscal year 2014, women are approximately 14 percent of the active duty Army…”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Army

    I suppose there is some wiggle room in the difference between “combat” and “active”. But I don’t recall Fred stipulating that the female soldiers he alluded to were in either the active army or combat roles. Just in the army is good enough, since he was talking about prospects for promotion.

  79. Tom Welsh says:
    @Brendan

    H.L. Mencken explained your observation for all time, 101 years ago.

    “The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. A Galileo could no more be elected President of the United States than he could be elected Pope of Rome. Both posts are reserved for men favored by God with an extraordinary genius for swathing the bitter facts of life in bandages of soft illusion”.

    – H.L. Mencken (“The Art Eternal”, New York Evening Mail 1918, as quoted in Alistair Cooke, “The Vintage Mencken”)

    • Agree: Johnny Walker Read
  80. @peterAUS

    Open ended. Pointless. Senile.

  81. Tom Welsh says:
    @The scalpel

    I don’t see that Trump should get much credit for firing Bolton. He should never have appointed him, or even considered the idea.

    Appointing Bolton was much like making a known serial arsonist fire chief.

  82. Tom Welsh says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    “Unfortunately, the probable U.S. response to a serious defeat would be to reach for nuclear weapons. Even here, the news isn’t so good…”

    News of anyone reaching for nuclear weapons is never “good”. In fact it is probably the worst conceivable news for any living human being.

    Once a single nuclear weapon is used in war, there is no reason I have ever seen that could prevent escalation leading to the complete extinction of the human species. (And many others, if you care).

    We are all like hostages imprisoned in a huge hangar stacked to the roof with cans of petrol, sticks of TNT, and all manner of other explosives and flammables.

    In such a scenario, it would never be “good” is someone was seen to reach for a live hand grenade.

  83. @J. Gutierrez

    Help me assuage my ignorance here.
    What are a few a decent sources of news (in English) about Mexico?
    Social, Political, economic etc.

    tks.

    • Agree: Counterinsurgency
    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  84. No congressman from East East Jesus, Nebraska on the committee that makes important decisions but boys capable of chopping cordwood from the same neck of the wood would be welcomed to serve the interests of bicoastal morons… it doesn’t add up!

  85. Sean says:

    The US is close to having a nuclear first strike capability. It has the world’s most powerful economy and a war against America is one that no country could possibly hope to win. The US need not fear an attack.

    Iran is going to be slowly smothered by economic means and end up a country of paupers. China will present more os a problem, but they are terrified of Trump. And they are right to be.

  86. @GI Joe

    GPS is obsolete replaced by INS for navigation.

    INS were used way before GPS or Parus, or any other global positioning systems were in use. INS is primarily a dead reckoning tool which, in case of long range and complex trajectories and speed regimes, still require corrections to update the position. ICBMs all use INS (as do other types of weapons) but most of them still use celestial correction.

  87. @john proko

    pdq World War 3 Will be fought in the middle East….Russia and Iran and Syria will attack Jerusalem. Israel will win ……Will take Israel 6 months to bury the dead.

    Be realistic.

    Israel is so small that there won’t be anybody left alive there, given WW III and nuclear use. Adjacent areas will be destroyed as well, and the sacrifice will be regretted by whoever lives through WW III on the launching end of things. Who will themselves be completely out of luck because a countervalue strike will destroy their harbors (and such things as the Aswan Dam), leaving them without food for most of their populations.

    WW I started out like that — gross misunderstanding of the military situation by just about everybody. In the theory of Clausewitz and the Franco-German war of 1870t was to be a short war of maneuver ended by decisive battle. Didn’t work out that way.

    Israel was a strategic mistake in the nuclear age, and _if_ there is a WW III in the Middle East (started between India and Pakistan and spreading to Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in about a decade) that would become apparent, as would the severe danger of nuclear weapons under the control of societies likely to use them.

    (and, to the people who will say “Yes, like the US in WW II”, I can reply “If you don’t like it, then travel back the 1940s and change it. I’m more concerned about the future.”)

    Counterinsurgency

  88. @J. Gutierrez

    You are one Stupid Patriot!

    And Fuck You Jeff Stryker, I still don’t like you!

    Mexican chauvinism. This is what you’re importing, guys.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  89. Blankaerd says:

    I am not entirely up-to-date with all the latest military technology and information, but…

    How is the situation any different for other major military powers?

    Russia has a single aircraft carrier it struggles to operate, hasn’t developed a viable competitor to the F-22 yet and in general lags behind in stealth technology (though I understand the SU-57 is finally getting delivered), has low morale among its troops and much like the US has only at best been in proxy/interventionist wars these past 30 years while having a much weaker economy. Just like the US Russia couldn’t defeat a bunch of sheepherders in Afghanistan either, despite excessive saturation bombing and gunship helicopters.

    China is in a process of modernizing its military, but I don’t see how they can compete with that of the US at this point in time. Current projections may have China winning out against the US, but the trade war seems to hit China hard and they suffer economically as a result. The US at least has the benefit of having an ongoing military machine for the past 70 years or so and though they haven’t been in a large-scale war, the same thing can be said for China.

    As for Iran, well I think without Russia and China the state cannot really contest the US in any realistic way. It has an average IQ of what, 84? No nuclear weapons? No significant navy? As for wars, well they didn’t exactly emerge as a victor out of the Iran-Iraq war either, and that was the last war they participated in.

    In any event, environmental pressures can quickly give change to a situation. The US army wasn’t exactly the most experienced/trained army in 1940 either, but that would quickly change once the US economy was geared towards war and they quickly gained experience in the Pacific, North Africa and later Europe. It doesn’t take a century to get an experienced and well-trained army.

    • Replies: @Paw
  90. DrTorch says:

    In extended periods of peace, which includes the bombing of peasants, a military tends to assume that no major war will come during the careers of those now in uniform. Commanders consequently do what makes their lives easy, what they must do to get through the day and have reasonable fitness reports. This does not include pointing out inadequacies of training or equipment. Nor does it include recommending large expenditures to remedy deficiencies.

    You couldn’t be more wrong. That’s ALL the military does these days. Spending billions on new ideas, new weapons, addressing potential new threats. Doesn’t matter if no one knows the CONOPS, and that the new technologies/weapons/systems may fail, rust apart, or be easily countered (or hacked), the money will be spent. That’s how Colonels become Generals, Generals become high-paid consultants, and how Defense Contractors continue to make big profits.

    You don’t think so? Here:

    https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2018/10/09/the-armys-future-tank-may-not-be-a-tank/

    https://www.military.com/equipment/joint-light-tactical-vehicle-jltv

    https://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/business/06marine.html

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a25619083/us-army-light-tank-bae-general-dynamics/

    https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2020/budget_justification/pdfs/03_RDT_and_E/RDTE_Vol4_CBDP_RDTE_PB20_Justification_Book.pdf

    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL33741.pdf

    https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/pentagon-cancels-multi-billion-boeing-missile-defense-program/

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/army-has-shiny-new-m1-abrams-tank-65821

    Yeah, sometimes we lose capabilities (or come terribly close). You are right that bit of foolishness is argued about often:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-ohios-lima-army-tank-plant-only-tank-builder-in-the-us-2019-3

  91. You nailed it with this one Fred. I have said America will continue it’s lust for never ending war as long as there is no conscription(draft to us boomers). Can you imagine the nancy college boy’s of today, who had to take the day off from school to “heal” after it was announced Trump won the election, receiving a letter in the mail that started out with “Greetings”?

    America is truly a nation of “Nancy’s”, with real men being almost non-existent. Sadly,we are a paper tiger, weakened by political correctness and social justice. We will be done in short order if we are ever forced to fight a real enemy again. And yes, I put Iran in that category.

    The following would strike terror into the heart of any young American today and would result in chaos in the streets the likes of which has never been seen in America.

  92. Ron Paul explains why Fred is right and how American generals always want to fight the previous war.

    • Replies: @SeekerofthePresence
  93. Thle zionists have had the US at war ever since the zionist banking kabal fastened its privately owned money creation machine aka the FED on the American people in 1913 and then came WWI and wars after wars right on down and through the mideast and through it all the zionist bankers rolled in the money made off the deaths of Americans and innocent civilians across the globe, as General Smedly Butler said war is a racket, there is nothing new under the zionist sun!

    The zionists are planning a war on Iran, which will bring in Russia on the side of Iran and will go nuclear and this is what the zionists want, as they believe they will survive in the DUMBs aka deep underground military bases, which they have throughout the zio/US and Israel and zio/Europe, and they care not the 100s of millions will die, as this fits in with their plan to depopulate the world and so these satanists see a nuclear war as a win win!

    War is a racket!

  94. OK. A few points that the comments and the articles haven’t mentioned. IMHO, of course.

    1. It is impossible for a military to be prepared for the next war. This is because the enemy is intelligent and _will attack where the defense is not prepared_. Basics, right out of Sun Tzu.

    2. War fighting equipment is _capital goods_. It takes time to design and build them. They are therefore _always_ obsolescent during the first part of the fighting (there is always a first part, even if there isn’t a second or third part).

    3. Even attempting to be ready for all possible attacks is impossible – the society crumbles without the enemy having to actually attack. The USSR tried it. The USSR was gifted by Stalin with an industrial plant specialized to win WW II (which it did, sort of), and the plant continued to operate (in large part from sheer inertia) after 1945. Russian society was also severely hurt by WW II (understatement) and demanded a military force that could immediately react to defeat any invading ground force. The Soviet military forces were capable of that, too, but the cost of military force and industrial base froze Soviet society.

    The Western response of gradually losing to the Soviets (“containment”) turned out to be the victorious one. The USSR needed a quick victory to win; long term its economic inefficiency proved intolerable to its civil population, and seemed likely to change slowly winning into losing (as Afghanistan was lost).

    4. The United States has for some time been in the position described in _The Sand Pebbles_ [1]. The book concerns a US Navy vessel on the Yangtze River in China during the KMT takeover. Essentially, the vessel is militarily ineffective. Its enlisted crew each has a Chinese double who does the actual mechanical work, the ship itself is a bit past the end of its service life, it has been suborned by its Chinese crew to smuggle opium, and its mission is described by a ship’s officer in an official setting as “only to demonstrate US presence on the Yangtze River” and nothing more. The officer therefore is opposed to anything that might reduce time spent cruising the river. Things such as improving the ships reliability or increasing its military effectiveness.
    After a long setup, the book then describes the various assaults (political and physical) that defeated the ship and killed the protagonist.
    Since preparation for the next war is impossible, yet the appearance needs to be maintained, it follows (to a politician) that no harm would be done by diverting military spending to support of the politician’s party. Defense industries become more pork and less defense, as does the officer corps, the NCO corps, and (to a lesser extent) the enlisted ranks.
    This is especially true because US defeat/withdrawal will interrupt world, leading to world wide destabilization. That always happens when an empire relaxes control, and is apt to be severe this time because US attempts to stabilize the Middle East and the Albania/Serbia area have actually destabilized the region, and world trade has increased African and Latin American populations to levels unsustainable absent world trade.
    Because this is evident, the world is not resisting US dominance as much as is usual for an imperial power. That is an additional reason (to the political mind) for diverting DoD money to winning domestic political fights.
    This will eventually lead to defeat, but there appears to be _no way to stop the process except a defeat that will lead to general political reorganization_.

    5. Note that this process could but need not result in a Renaissance analog. The US has reorganized itself about 3 times so far (Confederation of States/US Constitution [2], US Civil War makes Northern alliance and supreme over the States, WW II replaces US middle class with US middle income, supreme Federal government, US dominion over the West), and so far prosperity has survived each reorganization. Might be that way this time, might not. US is physically capable of autarky, one of the few regions that is, but might not be politically capable.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] Richard McKenna.
    _The Sand Pebbles_
    Original publication date 1962.

    2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation

    4.

  95. Tom Welsh says:
    @J. Gutierrez

    “No one has ever invaded the USA, dummy!”

    While I completely agree with all your remarks, Mr Gutierrez, may I point out (as a British citizen) the one exception: the War of 1812 (declared by the USA, as usual) in the course of which the British not only invaded the infant USA, but occupied and burned Washington DC.

    Admittedly, as Gore Vidal has remarked, they were doing the Americans a favour because the original Washington was a ghastly swampland pigsty, and the rebuilt version was a definite improvement.

  96. Tom Welsh says:
    @lysias

    “How do we bomb Iran when the Iranians have Russian air defense? How do we bomb Iran after our GPS satellites are taken out?”

    Spot on, lysias!

    I rather think the answer is, “We don’t”. Not if the CINC pays any attention to the Pentagon’s advice. After all, they don’t want to lose all their-hard won expensive toys, and have the entire world laughing at them to boot.

    Any half-decent poker player (including most businessmen) understands the importance of not having your bluff called.

  97. Tom Welsh says:
    @Anon

    “They don’t think there will be a conflict, and if there is, they think they’ll lose and have to resort to using nukes”.

    I don’t wish to seem discourteous, but how many times do I have to say this?

    Resorting to nukes IS losing. Losing on the biggest conceivable scale.

    • Agree: Counterinsurgency
    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  98. Tom Welsh says:
    @TJM

    I think you have just won the “wittiest comment” prize, hands down with no one else in sight.

    (Note: true wit has to be true to be witty).

  99. This is a good piece, but I have to quibble about one thing:

    Soon nobody will insure them. They stop coming.

    This is silly, and I don’t know why people keep repeating it.

    If private insurers exited the market, obviously governments would step in.

    Do you suppose the British just threw up their hands and said aw shucks when Lloyd’s of London decided U-boats were too risky to insure against?

  100. @J. Gutierrez

    We don’t want to invade Mexico. We want Mexicans to stop being allowed to invade and colonize us.

    • Replies: @anaccount
    , @J. Gutierrez
  101. @J

    Tens of millions of people here, never had a grandparent born or raised in the USA. Will THEY fight to defend us?

    • Replies: @J
    , @Corvinus
  102. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dd

    Good article , very interesting .

    In the Malvinas ( Falklands ) war ( 1982 ) the english won a close and pyrrhic victory , and thanks to the US aid and manipulations .

    The english loses in the Malvinas war were so high that the British Navy never recuperated since then , no matter how much they brag .

    The english declared a 90 year period of secret over the Malvinas war , till 2072 , what means that they have a lot to hide .

    The Royal Navy lost 31 ships sunk or damaged , 145 helicopters and planes , and 1100 men . The poor and backwarded argentinians fought a modern war and nearly won the war . Argentina would have won the war if the USA had stayed neutral as they made believe the argentinian Government , or respected the Monroe doctrine : America for the Americans .

    http://www.institutodeestrategia.com/articulo/americas/cuales-fueron-las-bajas-
    de/20180218110112010727.html

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/falklands-war-lot-closer-than-many-thought-1.1207333

    • Replies: @Nawi
    , @J. Gutierrez
  103. anaccount says:
    @RadicalCenter

    As long as Mexico accepted everyone that illegally crossed the US border (from Mexico), there wouldn’t be a problem.

    Of course if there was a problem we could alway annex a piece of northern Mexico like Turkey wants to do with it’s ‘safe zone’ in Syria.

    This comment might bring out the ‘la raza’ in some but that was never hard to do anyway.

    • Replies: @Tom Welsh
  104. @Tom Welsh

    The US invaded itself, thank’s to “Stinkin’ Lincoln ” and his army led by many Marxist generals known as 48’rs. This eliminated states rights and gave birth to the bloated, tyrannical federal government we are all now slaves under.

  105. anon[211] • Disclaimer says:

    “The US is close to having a nuclear first strike capability. It has the world’s most powerful economy and a war against America is one that no country could possibly hope to win. The US need not fear an attack.”

    None of that is correct. The US is nowhere near a first strike capability. In fact, the Russians are probably ahead in this area; hence, the Pentagon’s frantic race to modernize its nuclear deterrent in the wake of Russian hypersonic nuclear delivery development. If the US military were so powerful, then they wouldn’t have abandoned the INF in favor of using nukes as a last, desperate gamble to stave off defeat in Asia. Further, the Chinese are now at parity or are slightly ahead in many key nuclear delivery technologies developments. The Pentagon has directly stated this in one of their annual reports.

    I would also hardly call the US economy the “most powerful” in the world. American consumers are drowning in debt and, as Fred points out, maybe half or more of the population is living paycheck to paycheck. The US is an economic middleman with little industry that could be utilized in a real war with a peer or near-peer rival. Its civilian population would quickly break under the strain of a serious war once the shelves went empty and prices went up. Imagine Katrina x 100. Consumers are already taking out record debt just to maintain their parent’s lifestyle in the previous generation, and that’s in peacetime. The US is also an increasingly racially divided society that will quickly lose cohesion in a conflict with China. The poor black and Hispanic underclass would revolt if their meager incomes dried up even a little bit.

    And as I pointed out above, the US military is suffering from a monopoly crisis that may very well cause it to run out of armament in the midst of a conflict with China. It would already be difficult to defeat China over Taiwan as it is now. Military planners likely haven’t taken into account supply chain shortages that will develop in a conflict; the US has no ready replacements for the materials they import from China which will certainly be cut off in a conflict with that country. In fact, IMHO, with this factor taken into account, it is conceivable that the PLA could hold out long enough to steadily defeat the US all the way to Japan. The US is also located far away and may not be able to rush reinforcements to that theater soon enough, especially if they have limited resources to fight with in the first place. And it’s not clear to me the countries basing US soldiers will really allow themselves to become targets in a conflict with a large country like China, a future superpower in all theaters – economic, technological, cultural, and military.

    The US certainly needs to fear attack under those circumstances. Most of its military is located far away and in the direct cross-hairs of powerful countries.

    “Bolton is gone for good. Trump was probably strongly pressured by the Deep State to hire him, and so he did.”

    Trump hired the man because he’s easily manipulated. Bolton said nice things about him on Fox News and told him what he wanted to hear on Iran, so Trump gave him the job. Having the GOP’s biggest donor, Sheldon Adelson, supporting Bolton certainly helped.

    “I have a 21 year old son, who mostly has similar opinions to me. For some reason he really has a bug up his butt for China (I don’t hold any China-specific animosity). If he was drafted to go to war somewhere else he would likely go, but he said if we ever go to war with China, he’s signing up to go fight.”

    Most of Gen-Z doesn’t feel that way according to the polls. However, CIA-YouTube propaganda has likely convinced a few to hate the “chicoms”. Mostly, these efforts center on clandestine funding of anti-China channels through third party proxies, including religious cults. I’ve also heard they manipulate the algorithm to bring these channels to wider audiences. Some of this propaganda involves placement of news stories in traditional media they know will then be picked up by the usual YouTube drama channels. They’ll involve stories like “China censoring muh video games. Reeee.” Never mind the fact that American SJWs are responsible for censoring far more content than China ever has. If anything, China may end up saving the video game industry long-term much as the Japanese are now. If you don’t want your Gen-Z kid brainwashed by the CIA into hating “muh Chicoms”, keep them away from YouTube, which everyone knows is a front for American government propaganda anyway.

    “Hehe…at the same time, the same armed forces are capable of squashing a secession within US borders in a short time span and with ease.”

    No, they’re not. I keep hearing this, but it’s not true. Many Red States are the size of some European countries. If half a dozen walked out of the Union tomorrow all at the same time, there is practically nothing the federal government could realistically do to stop them: polls show blue states are unwilling to fight; it’s questionable whether the special forces, disproportionately white male, will fight against their own on behalf of a racist identitarian democrat who spent the 2020 election cycle attacking whites; a substantial percentage of the armed forces are located far away and overseas; etc etc etc.

    I don’t think they have the manpower available to hold these territories for long, let alone fight an armed conflict against a Red State’s police and national guard + civilian population. Red States need not fight and win an armed conflict to carry the day, though. All they need to do is hold out long enough for the other side to give up and go home, which they will according to the polls I’ve seen.* Mainly, what keeps Red States in line is a deluded sense of patriotism that I expect to fade with the demise of the Baby Boom generation. NYT columnists like Michelle Goldberg and WaPost columnists like Jennifer Rubin are working overtime to make that happen. Thrilling.

    Of course, the federal government would react, perhaps with financial penalties, but they wouldn’t be immune from devastating counter-attack themselves. Red States refine the majority of the country’s gasoline and heating oil, for starters. An organized resource boycott could be implemented with devastating results: poor minorities in urban areas would go nuts – massive riots; the stock market would crash as foreign investment fled; Russia and China might also take advantage of the situation and join in, actively supporting Red States or perhaps driving the US military out of their backyards. The result would be massive chaos for the federal government, probably too much for them to handle. Perhaps Red States then take advantage and mount their own successful invasion of blue states in response. One can hope.

    *The United States has never won a serious conflict against a peer rival in its entire history, excepting only the “Civil War” itself … and even there they were up against more of a near-peer rival with a much smaller industrial and population base. Their Revolutionary War was fought against a small fraction of Great Britain’s army; the Mexican-American War, and all the others of that century, were against inferior opponents; most of WWI was fought by the British, the Russians, and the French; WWII was mostly won by the Russians; Korea was a stalemate and the American public broke, demanding peace by the end of it (Truman blinked and fired MacArthur); Vietnam was a loss, despite the propaganda to the contrary; Grenada … laughable; Desert Storm was against a third world country, and even then they had to lie the public into the war with false claims about a vital threat to oil reserves in Saudi Arabia + incubator babies … ; etc. In that light, I’m not sure a modern multicultural, highly divided, continental United States could really defeat a serious opponent on its home turf. It has yet to be proved to me that they aren’t just a big paper tiger.

    “It looks like Trump reads Fred’s column. Bolton is gone.”

    Trump notoriously doesn’t read. They had to shorten his briefs to just a few pages after he assumed office. If this article had appeared on television, you might have been right.

  106. wayfarer says:

    Good thing money grows on trees, or the Rothschild’s wouldn’t have their “boneyards.”

  107. Che Guava says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree, but then I always like Fred’s writing.

    I want to contact him by e-mail on this, but would have to re-research details that I have forgotten.

    Point being that Japan’s Special Attack Forces (tokkoutai a.k.a. kamikaze) made mincemeat of the U.S.N. The tonnage sunk was quite incredible, the largest in any battle of the Pacific War, and in any battle of any war to date.

    This was, of course, achieved by young men sacrificing their lives as guidance systems, but tactically was very effective. Since our navy was pretty much non-existent by then, and the U.S.N. had many more ships, so they landed and were brutal, as was the Imperial Army towards Okinawans, though the Yanqui were far worse, incinerating people and so on.

    Excuse my digression, but the sea part of the Battle of Okinawa was the earliest illustration of the sinkability of major U.S.N. ships, and a brave but possibly unethical effort. At least, the man who was organising it was among the last to cut his guts open at the end. Tactically, it was brilliant, however, he was burdened by the failure to prevent failure and guilt for the young lives lost. IIRC, he was the last before Mishima’s ridiculous final play, starring Mishima himself, which is something of a parody, and widely assessed as a homosexual love suicide to this day.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  108. anon[211] • Disclaimer says:

    “I don’t wish to seem discourteous, but how many times do I have to say this? Resorting to nukes IS losing. Losing on the biggest conceivable scale.”

    Not from the vantage point of a military planner. They aren’t big into moralizing. Neither are most non-Europeans. They are much more practical. In certain circumstances, nations will resort to using nuclear weapons if they believe they are about to be totally routed from a critical area (ex: the Middle East) or their nation is about to be overrun by a superior force (Pakistan vs. India). If the choice at hand lies between the faint hope of deterrence with the uncertain possibility of nuclear destruction or the certainty of total destruction via conventional forces, they’re going with the former.

    • Replies: @Herald
  109. I am very proud of the fact that I was one the last classes who trained in jump school with combat boots for every aspect of training, including PT.

  110. Nawi says:
    @Anon

    “The poor and backwarded argentinians…” Keep the ad hominems out of this. Neither poor nor backwards. Where are you from ?

  111. @peterAUS

    Listen, Fred, stop with the truth, willya? It is causing me to have irritable bowels, insomnia, anger issues, and a need for safe spaces, i.e., the whiskey bottle. When the military shows signs advanced signs of rot, in our case PC, Post Modernism, Post Realism, Active Phantasmogoricalism, it’s time to think defensively and strategically.

    I don’t care what others say, you are all right in my book. I’d drink your whiskey anytime.

  112. Herald says:
    @Colin Wright

    It’s enlightening to see that so many responders are still enamoured of the petulant Trump.

    To date, he has only done one good thing worthy of note and that was to get rid of useless chicken-hawk John Bolton. When Trump had him resurrected in the first place, even my ninety five year old mother knew this was the height of folly.

    One lunatic down is still good news, but there are plenty left. The twisted Pompeo ought to be next to face the chop, but has Trump got the balls to take out another of his handpicked crazies so soon? I doubt it.

    • Replies: @WJ
    , @follyofwar
    , @Colin Wright
  113. @Jeff Stryker

    “It is scary how far the US fell apart since the late nineties when Clinton was president.” No. During and after Lincoln was President.

    http://www.thehistoryforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30277

    • Agree: Johnny Walker Read
  114. The only war being fought is demographics, one The West is losing badly.

    A horde of orcs can lay waste to an entire city in a generation or less (Detroit/Hiroshima meme.)

    mohammedan filth, same thing.

    Large numbers of chinese don’t belong anywhere in the West. Nor indians.

    Ship them all to Mother Israel, they’re starving for diversity.

  115. Fred’s fine article came a day or two before Mr. Trump’s firing of Bolton. Perhaps Trump is finally getting serious about avoiding any new wars. Perhaps he really does want to get re-elected. Perhaps he took seriously the nightmare scenario which Fred envisions if Iran is attacked.

    In any case, his firing of The-Worst-Man-in-the-World is welcome news. To top it off, it could have been a blow to Netanyahu on the eve of his latest push to remain Israel’s dictator. Those of us on the anti-war right, which includes tens of thousands of veterans, were raising our beer bottles in glee last night. But, upon waking up this morning, the ominous dark clouds remain.

    In any case, I’d like to get Fred’s take on the significance of Moustache Man getting the boot. I hope he writes about it soon.

  116. @Nawi

    “The poor and backwarded argentinians…” Keep the ad hominems out of this. Neither poor nor backwards. Where are you from ?

    Nawi, in English that’s praise for the Argentinians. In long form, it would read “The Argentinians were tough to be poor and backwards, and those who thought that were decisively proven wrong by Argentinian actions that equaled or surpassed those of the Royal Navy!”

    Counterinsurgency

  117. AWM says:

    As far as the Chinese vs the US, the ChiComs know they have an insurmountable problem. And it is one that will require decades to solve.
    And it’s not the command, coordination and control or targeting or doing battle with forward sensors in the combat cloud, even though they have pitiful capability in those domains, and even less under actual war fighting conditions.

    There is the “silent service” which renders a Chinese victory impossible.
    Period. Full stop.

    Like I have said before, over the years I have asked servicemen at multiple levels of multiple services if there was any time past to present during your service in the US military that you would have exchanged the totality of US military hardware and capabilities with that of your enemy.
    I always get the same answer, regardless of their position in the chain of command.
    They laugh.

    • Replies: @Mulegino1
    , @RadicalCenter
  118. @Chris Mallory

    It is not the number of females, in itself. It is that the armed forces have been feminized, made softer and gentler, more caring and the rest of the rot. I remember when women started going out on police patrols. These thin boned, usually diminutive women would be paired-necessarily-by a bid bruiser who would have to do the heavy work, like physically restraining someone, or fending off a direct attack. Usually the freemail officer steps back and then advances once the perp is secured. To put on the handcuffs. All it would take for the freemail officer to be put on permanent medical retirement is round house punch to the face. That would break most of her facial bones, leaving horrific scarring and years of reconstructive surgery.

    And then there is the widespread adoption of the 9mm. The great majority of military and police I have talked to prefer the .45 cal. BUT, women with their thin bones and small hands can’t handle it. Solution? Dumb and scale down for Inclusiveness, and Political Careeness. Gender neutral, Equal Opportunity. (More opportunity for her partner to get killed).

  119. @Tom Welsh

    Nuclear weapons are (in theory) used when one side is certain of losing everything (losing a central war) and wants to bring both sides down to defeat.

    Counterinsurgency

  120. WJ says:
    @Libertt Mike

    Popular enough to be re-elected running against the open borders/reparations/health care for illegal alien crowd

  121. WJ says:
    @Herald

    No president since Carter has been as hesitant to use military force. No first term president has had as low a casualty rate as Trump. Reagan had Beirut, Clinton had Somalia, Bush- no need to elaborate on that idiot and we forget that Obama got conned into a surge in Afghanistan during which most of the entire casualties of the war occurred.

    • Replies: @Herald
  122. Herald says:
    @anon

    Using nuclear weapons will almost inevitably be a losing tactic against an enemy that is equally armed. Using them to thwart or overcome conventional weapons, clearly demonstrates the lack of overall military strength of the user. Either way it is a desperate tactic.

  123. @peterAUS

    The interesting question, I guess, is : what are those reasons?

    Given, somewhat obliquely, in the first paragraph.

  124. @Anon

    Anon 424,

    I read somewhere that the New Aircraft Carrier, barely made it back to port and some think it sunk. It was quickly replaced by a recently completed Aircraft Carrier that took the name of the heavily damaged vessel. The British could not let the world know and used the MSM to cover it up…

    The Ship was hit by a French Air to Ship missile that the Argentines “Mexican Rigged” because France wouldn’t give them the arming codes…It was brilliant work by the technology group just to get it armed. Then the pilot had to fly his fighter jet built in the 1950’s close enough to release it without getting hit. He released it and flew away and watched it hit the Brand New Carrier dead center, crippling it and sending it back home…

    No body would sell modern weapons to Argentina and the US and France sided with Britton. I think Argentina is still paying the price for that war, it has faced economic warfare ever since!

  125. Komsomol says:

    I have a question .. who is Fred Reed? I cant find any credible information about the author except links to his ‘Google Translate’ quality articles…. I am certain US Military has all kinds of issues but this article is BS ..

    • Replies: @Steve Naidamast
  126. Thank you Mr Fred Reed for this very informative and illuminating article. You have a loyal follower.

  127. @Chris Mallory

    Claiming large numbers of female infantry troopers only makes you look like a fool. Facts matter.

    “Large” is another one of those undefined terms. The “fact” that matters is whether or not their presence in present numbers in a wartime environment would affect the military’s ability to get the ugly job done. Fred apparently thinks so, as do others. I guess time will tell

  128. @Longfisher

    I read a poorly written article today that claimed “Bolton said that he didn’t resign, he quit”.
    That’s the kind of writers we have out there these days.

  129. rburns says:

    There is truth in Fred’s screed. A lot of it unfortunately. And for the record, I have Vietnam and Desert Storm in my resume’. At issue is that none of our presidents have been in a military service in any real sense unless it is Jimmy Carter and he is universally despised. Go figure. We are saddled with powerful ignorance. God bless Harry Truman.

    Fred earned his certification to speak about war and all the nonsense associated with it. He is paying a price with his vision thank you Vietnam. There is much, much nonsense to it. Much of the nonsense is due to fact that the military is equipped for the last big war. Battleships went early in WW II. Aircraft carriers filled in but they are also archaic systems and today’s dinosaurs. The brand new Gerald Ford carrier has no functioning elevators to get ordnance to the deck. Hmmm…slight oversight? The Navy has demonstrated for the world to see that it cannot navigate its ships or operate them professionally. There are routine reliefs of captains for incompetence or brutality. Check it out. As far as I know, no Iranian has shot down a US airliner with hundreds of civilian passengers aboard.

    Patriotism is fake. During WW II while troops were bleeding abroad, a number of US companies were gouging the government and labor unions were striking often to the point where the Army had to seize the factories. Check it out! On Wikipedia. Patriots all.

    Women can handle about anything a man can except where physical strength is involved. They know it, the military knows it but politics and culture prevails. In WW II we refused to integrate vast numbers of physically able black troops. Seriously? That is how stupid management gets in the DC black hole of deep thinking. Women are here to stay. Period.

    The 1000 pound gorilla in the mix is cyberwarfare. That means that a smart team of Iranians or North Koreans or any other reasonably bright group can cripple American systems pretty much at will. The other 1000 pound gorilla is the worldwide arms industries. Someone is making a buck off the misery of the peasants that Fred is concerned for. Welcome to the real world.

  130. anon[782] • Disclaimer says:

    “Russia has a single aircraft carrier it struggles to operate”

    They won’t need aircraft carriers to defeat the United States in their backyard (Europe).

    “hasn’t developed a viable competitor to the F-22 yet”

    They don’t need one. There are fewer than 120 operational copies of the F-22 in service; they are practically irreplaceable if destroyed or seriously damaged. That’s not enough to win a conflict against China, and probably not even Russia (not all F-22s are massed in a single area, so we’re really talking about a fraction of the F-22 force against the entire Russian and Chinese air forces). In fact, RAND already examined this issue in regards to a conflict with China over Taiwan. Result: the F-22 made no difference in the outcome because they were overwhelmed by superior numbers and their support aircraft (non-stealthy) were all destroyed; all F-22s in that scenario were destroyed. Further, not all armament launched by the F-22 will hit a target through the sophisticated electronic countermeasures employed by Russia and China. All things considered, and we’re probably talking about a force smaller than people think. It certainly isn’t enough to stop an all-out Russian invasion of Eastern Europe.

    “and in general lags behind in stealth technology (though I understand the SU-57 is finally getting delivered)”

    Stealth technology is highly overrated against a peer rival with a large, determined air force and army. These stealth aircraft haven’t been built in sufficient numbers to make a difference in the outcome of any major conflict with peer rival, and they can be knocked out of the fight for weeks or months with sometimes even minor damage. They are also not invisible to radar, only the bands used for a weapon’s grade lock. It’s not inconceivable that a high-performance 4th generation Russian or Chinese fighter survives the BVR onslaught of the F-35 through sheer numbers (because the aircraft has a very limited payload) or electronic countermeasures, closes on it, and then decimates the F-35 with superior dog fighting capabilities.

    “has low morale among its troops and much like the US”

    My guess: Russian military morale is good enough considering they’ll be fighting in their backyards and for Mother Russia. I’d be more worried about American military morale considering polls of military veterans show majorities of respondents think Iraq, and even Afghanistan, was a mistake. Their military is additionally unhampered by political correctness, and they’ll have geography on their side, which should even things up quite a bit and provide for an important morale booster in a conflict. As for China, I’d characterize PLA morale against the US as excellent.

    “has only at best been in proxy/interventionist wars these past 30 years while having a much weaker economy.”

    The US has essentially no (or very limited) manufacturing capability left, so I don’t think economic status will matter very much in a war with a peer or near-peer rival. Athens had a very large and sophisticated navy with a larger population base and economy. Their rival Sparta didn’t. Backwards Sparta won the Peloponnesian War anyway. If war erupted between China and the US or between Russia and the US, the size of the American navy and the health of Wall Street may not mean as much as people naively assume it will, depending upon circumstances.

    “Just like the US Russia couldn’t defeat a bunch of sheepherders in Afghanistan either, despite excessive saturation bombing and gunship helicopters.”

    We are talking about militaries of the same ballpark sophistication going at each other, not about population pacification efforts and nation building. If the Soviets really wanted to “win” in Afghanistan, they could have simply eliminated the entire country’s population with nerve gas, so I wouldn’t chalk up their “loss” in that country as a real military defeat. It was more of an inability to establish a preferred government under very limited operating procedures. Those same conditions won’t apply in a near-peer rival war.

    “China is in a process of modernizing its military, but I don’t see how they can compete with that of the US at this point in time.”

    China’s latest destroyers are basically on par with the A. Burke already; their air force is getting much better, too. The PLA navy is rapidly expanding in size and in sophistication. I’d say it is an open question whether the US could defeat the PLA navy over Taiwan. That situation will increasingly apply to areas farther away from the mainland with time. And we aren’t talking about the entire US navy vs. China, either. More likely a fraction just over half of the US navy vs. the entire Chinese navy and airforce, along with ground forces depending upon where the conflict takes place.

    “but the trade war seems to hit China hard and they suffer economically as a result.”

    I’d hazard a guess that a patriotic, homogeneous China would hold out longer than a pampered, racially-divided United States in a serious conflict. Look what happened after Katrina. Imagine that happening all over the US as supermarket stores shelves went empty and the US couldn’t find ready replacements. The US might end up hurting in a conflict more than people think with those demographics.

    “The US at least has the benefit of having an ongoing military machine for the past 70 years or so and though they haven’t been in a large-scale war, the same thing can be said for China.”

    True, but that might only serve to deter the US rather than the Chinese because the US has more to lose than China. The former can’t afford to lose its aura of invincibility whereas China never had it in the first place, and, thus, has something to prove.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
    , @FB
  131. @DWEEZIL THE WEASEL

    You now live in an occupied country, your countrymen(elite) sold you for shekels and power. You failed by being gulled into anti-Islamism when it was the Irish who were your enemies. /s

    All your guns belong to us.

    • Replies: @DWEEZIL THE WEASEL
  132. @Herald

    Word is that Pompeo hated Bolton, and did everything possible to keep him out of the loop. Maybe he was even instrumental in getting Trump to fire Moustache Man. At his press conference yesterday, with Treasury Sec. Mnuchin alongside, Pompeo seemed like very much the team player, stressing that they all serve at the pleasure of the president. I did notice some gleam in his eye when he said that. They all know that Bolton was carrying out his own agenda, far above his role as a simple advisor with no real power. I could be wrong, but I don’t think that Pompeo, a military man, is nearly as bad as Chicken Hawk Bolton. Time will tell.

    • Replies: @Herald
    , @Twodees Partain
  133. J says: • Website
    @RadicalCenter

    No doubt. Those fighting WWII were, many of them, second generation immigrants. Lots of German, Italian and Jewish kids. Mexicans and Japanese too.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  134. @TJM

    I’m not personally worried, TJM, just pointing out the stupidity, as that’s my job. Mr. Reed never got much into the financial aspect of the US Warfare state as he’s not a numerate guy. (Granted, he’s never stated otherwise.)

    When you’re $23,000,000,000,000 in debt, you really ought to think a bit about not just supply lines, but the whole idea of “defending” the world, or the US, or whomever, and consider just staying the f__k home and trying to get out of that economic abyss.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  135. @RadicalCenter

    Radical Center,

    Mexicans are the least of your problems. The majority of illegal aliens are from Central America. I read on the US Immigration website that more Mexicans have returned to Mexico than have gone to the US the past 10 years. It was a while back, but check out their website.

    Brother, you people allowed the major oil companies free reign over the country’s oil reserves. Those companies sold your critical oil supply when Obama and the Repubs change a law from the 1970’s that prevented the sale of the Nation’s Strategic Supply. They Quickly sold it all to China.

    Soon you will have no strategic oil and that’s why the US want Venezuela’s oil, but Russia stopped them. PEMEX was almost taken over by the US and Hillary Clinton’s State Department using the Mexican Energy Reform as a way to Get Control of it! Mexico is right next door and the US wants oil. We will see how far they will go…There is a lot more information that I can share with you, but I don’t have the time. The US MSM is not reporting on the many cases of corruption Mexico taking to trial. We almost lost the Electricity Company, The Mexican Workers Retirement Funds have been sacked and BlackRock a US fund Manager is involved in a lot of the shit!!!!

    Mexico was buying 75% of its fuel from the US because of all this corruption. Before the tankers reached Mexico the fuel was stolen. It was a free fall…

  136. @rburns

    Women can handle about anything a man can except where physical strength is involved. They know it, the military knows it but politics and culture prevails.

    Counterinsurgency

  137. @J. Gutierrez

    I remember we parted ways on good terms a few months back, Mr. Gutierez, but we’re not exactly on the same (web) page here. I don’t think an invasion of Mexico is something anyone should be worried about. All America would have to do right now is just confirm our ownership of California, New Mexico, and big chunks of Texas (your home, as I recall), and that’d be pretty much the same thing.

    If war does start in some shape or form, it’s the expats that don’t blend in, say, Mr. Reed as opposed to you, who have lots to worry about. People take out big problems on “the other” when the SHTF. I wouldn’t want to be an American in China, for example, if our relations get a lot worse, no matter how much I might know the language, love the people, etc. (Godfree Roberts – take heed here.) Ex-pats won’t fight, as most of them have already proven themselves to be the type that run from their problems.

    Listen, you take your Mexican side over your American side. I don’t fault that. Adios to you, and via con Dias.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  138. @Tom Welsh

    Tom Welch,

    You are right Sir, now I need to correct myself, too. I forgot the Famous Pancho Villa and his invasion of Columbus, NM…

    Thank you Sir…

    • Replies: @By-tor
  139. @anon

    True, but that might only serve to deter the US rather than the Chinese because the US has more to lose than China.

    No physically. China depends on the sea lanes for its raw resources. Blockade those and they collapse into either anarchy or a much smaller population.

    Counterinsugency

  140. Corvinus says:

    Of course the US military has the ability to fight low-intensity wars in the Middle East, as well as engage in a three-front war against Russia, China, and Iran.

    It comes to willpower and commitment on the part of politicians, not the training, equipment, or stamina of the American armed forces.

    Besides, if there is a battle royale between the U.S. and Russia or China, it’s going to be nuclear. Then, game over for the world.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  141. Corvinus says:
    @RadicalCenter

    “Tens of millions of people here, never had a grandparent born or raised in the USA. Will THEY fight to defend us?”

    Of course they will defend U.S.

  142. @J. Gutierrez

    One more thing for you. I highly recommend your reading Mr. Allan Wall of VDare once in a while, or every week, if you like him. This guy is an American, but he lived with his family in Mexico (I think his wife is Mexican and kids 1/2) for a decade. He is very sympathetic to the Mexican view as well as our American patriot view.

    Mr. Wall’s latest column is about the African “refugees” in Mexico. It sure sounds like the Mexicans are a bit more serious about their country than we are! Here are the rest of Allan Wall’s articles – used to be “Memo from Mexico” now “Memo from Middle America” (since he moved back) and others are called “Said in Spanish”.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  143. @Che Guava

    I agree, but then I always like Fred’s writing.

    Not this guy. Praise is due here, as I don’t find much fault, except his silly automatic Trump-hate.

    In at least 2 out of 3 columns he writes, Mr. Reed has got to not only bad-mouth everything about America (his prerogative there as a Mexican), but he will verbally harass all of the good hardworking patriotic American who are actually trying to change the very things that he is complaining about! Sometimes, an idiot is just an idiot, and that is the case with this writer on all but his good days. (I know he’s past menopause, so it’s kind of unpredictable.)

    • Replies: @Che Guava
    , @Michael1919
  144. @Counterinsurgency

    I live in Mexico! But 50 years in the US made me this way! I am actually a nice guy Mr. Counterinsurgency. Have you read what Jeff Stryker writes? He’s a smart guy with a hard on for people of the Indigenous persuasion…I’m White, Sir…just can’t stand people that shit all over the less fortunate and true owners of the American Continent. “Manifest Destiny” is the same as “God Gave Us This Land”. Anglo – Zionist = Same Shit! I’m German/Spanish Gunthier evolved to Gutierr add ez which means “son of” and you got Me!

    You won’t have to worry about importing this Mexico to the US, I left 5 years ago…Sir…Enjoy your day

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  145. @peterAUS

    Go to some other pub then, you won’t be missed, believe me Mr Peter AUS.
    I like Aussies but you come from weird murderous sect. Are you Irish? Thing is, one cannot be anti-Semitic nowadays.

  146. Republic says:

    Bombing defenseless peasants, the chief function of the American military, is not war.

    Those actions are War Crimes

    • Agree: DESERT FOX
  147. Herald says:
    @WJ

    I suspect that circumstances have played a bigger hand than Trump’s moderate tendencies in the lack of new wars.

    When Trump came to power the opportunities for wars against unarmed minnows had already become pretty limited. Nowadays there aren’t that many of these pushovers left that try to take an independent line. Also Russia’s intervention in Syria against the US/Western/Wahhabi/Zio sponsored terrorists has made it inevitable that the Trump has to tread more carefully.

    The real test in the Middle East will come with Iran, which is absolutely no minnow. If in his second term he still manages to ignore the insane clamour for war, from his unpleasant best friends in Tel Aviv/Riyadh, then I will accept, that Trump might just have some degree of common sense.

    On the broader front he has to stop throwing sanctions about like an irritable child and learn to resist surrounding himself with totally inappropriate people. He also needs to stop provoking trouble in Hong Kong and call a halt the continuing push for war with China, which will only end very badly for all of us.

    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
  148. @anon

    As the manufacturing of real goods is lost, the armament sector will be given more prioritization and so will be the ‘in your face‘ defense against ‘our‘ enemy.

  149. Biff says:
    @Tom Welsh

    the War of 1812 (declared by the USA, as usual) in the course of which the British not only invaded the infant USA, but occupied and burned Washington DC.

    As an indoctrinee of the American public education system I can attest that the war of 1812 was the only war that was never mentioned to the students – defeat never happened

  150. @Bill Jones

    The Mexican News Sources are just that, Mexican…If you are truly interested in real news from Mexico I will look around. If you are not fucking with me as some people here try and do, I am willing to look through some of my translations and send them to you. Counterinsurgery same thing for you.

    Hit me up at [email protected] so I don’t have to post long articles here and send them direct to you…

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  151. Herald says:
    @follyofwar

    There may well be something in what you say.

    Pompeo may well have disliked the unhinged Bolton, but likely that doesn’t have to mean that Pompeo is in any way better or preferable. Still getting rid of Bolton is a start in the right direction and who replaces him will of course be very interesting, especially as a way of judging where Trump really wants to go.

  152. @Herald

    ‘It’s enlightening to see that so many responders are still enamoured of the petulant Trump.

    To date, he has only done one good thing worthy of note and that was to get rid of useless chicken-hawk John Bolton. WhenTrump Decided to Fire Bolton After He Opposed Easing Iran Sanctions…’

    Actually, all that illustrates my point when it comes to Trump; the other choice was always worse.

    ‘Hoping to secure a meeting with Rohani, Trump discussed lessening the pressure on Iran and was supported by Mnuchin but countered by Bolton, according to a Bloomberg report…’

    Now, Hillary Clinton would never have turned on her paymasters like that. Indeed, I dare say we’d be two years into our war in Iran if she’d gotten into the driver’s seat.

    Trump is like old age; it beats the alternative.

    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Herald
  153. Again, there are true patriot Generals who totally despise how the U.S. military is run, and would remedy the situation if given the chance. Here is a perfect example:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/03/f-35-replacement-f-45-mustang-ii-fighter-simple-lightweight/

    • Replies: @wayfarer
  154. Sean says:
    @anon

    https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/

    Russia does not have a functioning space-based infrared early warning system but relies primarily on ground-based early warning radars to detect a US missile attack. Since these radars cannot see over the horizon, Russia has less than half as much early-warning time as the United States. (The United States has about 30 minutes, Russia 15 minutes or less.)

    The inability of Russia to globally monitor missile launches from space means that Russian military and political leaders would have no “situational awareness” to help them assess whether an early-warning radar indication of a surprise attack is real or the result of a technical error.

    The W76 upgrade reflects a 25-year shift of the focus of US hard-target kill capability from land-based to sea-based ballistic missiles. Moreover, by shifting the capability to submarines that can move to missile launch positions much closer to their targets than land-based missiles, the US military has achieved a significantly greater capacity to conduct a surprise first strike against Russian ICBM silos.

    • Replies: @kemerd
    , @Herald
  155. @Daddio7

    Even if what you allege were true (which it isn’t) no one is threatening the USA with anything worse than growing richer than they are or fighting back if attacked. The US armed forces could cease to exist and the US would be safer (and richer).

  156. @Counterinsurgency

    …in English that’s praise…

    Not just English. Litotes is about 3,000 years old, at least (it’s used in the Iliad).

    Litotes is a figure of speech in which a negative statement is used to affirm a positive sentiment.

    http://www.literarydevices.com/litotes/

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  157. peterAUS says:
    @anon

    Many Red States are the size of some European countries. If half a dozen walked out of the Union tomorrow all at the same time, there is practically nothing the federal government could realistically do to stop them: polls show blue states are unwilling to fight; it’s questionable whether the special forces, disproportionately white male, will fight against their own on behalf of a racist identitarian democrat who spent the 2020 election cycle attacking whites; a substantial percentage of the armed forces are located far away and overseas; etc etc etc.

    Yes.

    I don’t think they have the manpower available to hold these territories for long, let alone fight an armed conflict against a Red State’s police and national guard + civilian population. Red States need not fight and win an armed conflict to carry the day, though. All they need to do is hold out long enough for the other side to give up and go home, which they will according to the polls I’ve seen.* Mainly, what keeps Red States in line is a deluded sense of patriotism that I expect to fade with the demise of the Baby Boom generation. NYT columnists like Michelle Goldberg and WaPost columnists like Jennifer Rubin are working overtime to make that happen. Thrilling.

    Agree.

    Of course, the federal government would react, perhaps with financial penalties, but they wouldn’t be immune from devastating counter-attack themselves. Red States refine the majority of the country’s gasoline and heating oil, for starters. An organized resource boycott could be implemented with devastating results: poor minorities in urban areas would go nuts – massive riots; the stock market would crash as foreign investment fled;

    Yep.
    As for:

    Russia and China might also take advantage of the situation and join in, actively supporting Red States or perhaps driving the US military out of their backyards. The result would be massive chaos for the federal government, probably too much for them to handle. Perhaps Red States then take advantage and mount their own successful invasion of blue states in response. One can hope.

    I’d, personally, prefer skipping direct involvement by those two. Could trigger something nobody would really like.

  158. @Achmed E. Newman

    Mr. Newman,

    Yes Sir, we’re good!

    All America would have to do right now is just confirm our ownership of California, New Mexico, and big chunks of Texas (your home, as I recall), and that’d be pretty much the same thing.

    I don’t understand what you mean “confirm”, Mr. Newman. If you mean get the Mexicans out of those states, that will not happen. The Treaty of Hidalgo guaranteed US citizenship and protection to Mexicans that lived there. Which the US broke the same day they signed it. Mexicans were not protected and their lands were stolen by the invading settlers. If you can remember, I hold a Land Grant for 26,000 acres in Nueces County, Texas because my family members were threatened if they did not leave, by Mrs. King of the King Ranch and her hired guns.

    I live in Mexico now and have a ranch here that belongs to my family that I take care of, since most of my family still live in the US and most likely will stay there. So I see it as my ranch even though my mom has divided it up between me and my 4 siblings.

    Listen, you take your Mexican side over your American side. I don’t fault that. Adios to you, and via con Dias.

    That Mr. Newman would be very hard for me to do, because my daughter and son are US citizens and so is everyone of my brothers and sisters. My side Mr. Newman is my family’s side above all else. I hadn’t thought about that until now, Mr. Newman. You can’t possibly understand the unique situation that I and my family are in, because until now I didn’t either. Wow, thank you…maybe you too can now see my predicament.

    Manifest Destiny not only split the lands we had in Mexico and Texas, it split my family, too.

    Thank You Mr. Newman…I had never seen that before today!!!

  159. @Achmed E. Newman

    I agree. I think this is Fred’s best article in quite a while. The US Military is pitiful according to people I know in it and past veterans. There is a lack of discipline even in most units including the Navy Seals. Israel’s Military is a joke and Israel knows it. The US Military has been compromised by technology from the Military Industrial Complex who have sold the US Congress that they can design anything and bomb anywhere without the use of many soldiers to fight. Fred is right on this “digital high tech” superior theory of weapons of war. This is like taking a Mercedes instead of an old Land Rover through the wilderness and expecting the Mercedes to do the job.

    The other problem is this: You are fighting countries or tribes that have a greater pride and nationalism than our troops. Our diversity and inclusivity is nothing more than another scam from the new age Utopians who do not understand that these must be cohesive units to be successful.

    We have the most expensive military in the world but that won’t buy what we would need in these types of conflicts.

  160. Alfa158 says:
    @anon

    If there is another secession, it is likely that the kritarchy will trigger it. Years back there was a judge who ordered legislators to raise taxes in order to lavishly fund an inner city school district and the legislature meekly complied. If something similar happens again, where a judge issues an unconstitutional, authoritarian diktat, and this time the executive or legislators have the backbone to tell him to go whistle for it, it could escalate.
    I hope there wouldn’t be much fighting in a new war of secession. The people who want it fought, won’t put themselves in the line of fire, the people who are willing to fight won’t fight their relatives and neighbors, and the New Americans will stay on the sideline and wait for the round-eyes, crackers and gringos to work it out amongst themselves.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  161. @Achmed E. Newman

    Mr. Newman,

    One more thing for you. I highly recommend your reading Mr. Allan Wall of VDare once in a while, or every week, if you like him.

    Thank you I will….

  162. @Herald

    I hope you are right, but Trump is under zionist control and zionists have a greater Israel agenda and that means a war with Iran and armageddon!

    • Replies: @Herald
  163. Angharad says:

    Reed, you Race Traitor trash – WHY should Americans fight, kill, maim and be maimed, and DIE for the benefit of a forieng country? Why should WE – not YOU – but Americans of any stripe? Why should we destroy ourselves and millions of innocent people for the sake of the Children of the Devil?

    You are a giant heaping steaming pile of sh!t.

  164. @Counterinsurgency

    I agree…They sunk the Aircraft carrier with a French missile that was hacked in order to arm it.. Google it….

    • Replies: @Hank Yobo
  165. Angharad says:
    @rburns

    Nope. THE problem is Israel and the KIKES. Freddy is married to one. Get rid of the KIKES and you’ll have world peace. Poor old Adolf tried to warn us, didn’t he?

  166. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @J. Gutierrez

    The russians , the chinese , even the persians would sell anything to the argentinians or give them technology .

    Also the argentinians could have bought more Exocets before starting the war . Anyway France is not reliable , I did not konow that the mexicans helped argentina with the Exocets .

    And if the sanctioned persians can build missiles by themselves why not Argentina ?

    As the spanish saying goes ,as you know , No hay enemigo pequeño , there is no small enemy . or beware of even small enemies . Look at the small afganis .

  167. @Komsomol

    Maybe you ought to keep up to date with military developments in the US before making such a judgement.

    Fact is, the article is fairly on target. Even the mainstream media is reporting it.

    What planet are you on?

  168. By-tor says:
    @J. Gutierrez

    The CSA invaded the USA in 1863. Too bad Lee allowed Pickett to charge.

  169. @J. Gutierrez

    Wouldn’t be surprised. To that bunch, stealing Mexico’s oil would have seemed the height of cleverness.

    Counterinsurgency

  170. @Corvinus

    It comes to willpower and commitment on the part of politicians, not the training, equipment, or stamina of the American armed forces.

    Willpower and commitment on the part of the politicians. Biden? Warren? That’s actually funny.

    Counrinsurgency

  171. @J. Gutierrez

    Appalled by the evil of it all, then? I suggest you convert to misanthropy, there’s plenty of evil to go around.

    Counterinsurgency

  172. A bunch of warmongers expressing their autoerotic disapproval of the flabby unfit who volunteer through the poverty draft system. Total BS. All wars and international tensions exist to make the sheep at home patriotic, loyal, and stupid. George Orwell explained it in 1984. Shakespeare explained it over 500 years ago.

    Why do we live in a giant perpetual war state fighting and not winning war after war after war? Because of the Profit. With zombie morons as taxpayers going along and giving all of their money to this never ending Ponzi scheme. Only cretins support the military. The military steals from the taxpayers and gives to the rich – looting money and stealing from the lands the military invades.

  173. peterAUS says:
    @Alfa158

    …the people who are willing to fight won’t fight their relatives and neighbors, and the New Americans will stay on the sideline and wait for the round-eyes, crackers and gringos to work it out amongst themselves.

    Well, hopefully, you are correct there. Especially re the former.

    I just suspect, feel, that a smart elite could motivate a seizable portion of white working and underclass to fight against their (racial) kin. Or, I wouldn’t overestimate the smarts of those two social layers and underestimate the smarts of elites.

    Just a feeling.

  174. @niteranger

    There was a time when _The Strategy of Technology_ [1] worked well. The West didn’t field the massive and massively equipped armies of the Soviet Block, and that’s arguably why the West won the cold War. Doesn’t work now, though.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategy_of_technology

  175. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Nawi

    The russians , the chinese , even the persians would sell anything to the argentinians or give them technology .

    Also the argentinians could have bought more Exocets before starting the war . Anyway France is not reliable , I did not konow that the mexicans helped argentina with the Exocets .

    And if the sanctioned persians can build missiles by themselves why not Argentina ?

    As the spanish saying goes ,as you know , No hay enemigo pequeño , there is no small enemy . or beware of even small enemies . Look at the small afganis .

  176. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Nawi

    from Boludistan ,the land of the boludos .

    Read what Counterinsurgency rightly says .

  177. @J. Gutierrez

    I’ll agree that we also have a surprisingly large and burgeoning population of Salvadorans, Guatemalans, and the like whom we don’t need or want.

    Mexicans are not our only problem, but not the least of our problems, either, because of their sheer numbers. They’re one of our major problems, economically and culturally — it’s just that they don’t inflict anything near the levels of nonstop violence, intimidation, hostility, incompetence, and stupidity as the majority of our African “community.”

  178. kemerd says:
    @Sean

    What a full load of BS. Russia has both ground and space based early warning systems like USSR had. Besides, there is such a thing called over the horizon radars, which have thousands of kms of range of detection. Even Iran built one of those.

    So many wrongs in such a short article!

    • Replies: @Herald
    , @Sean
  179. @J. Gutierrez

    Appreciate your observation, JG, about the highly imprudent sell off of our national petroleum reserve, and the quality and detail of your comments generally.

    And I don’t doubt that the people running “our” government or corporations have been actively screwing the Mexican people, keeping down the regular people and preventing them from having a government to their liking — just as they do to us, with regard to natural resources, taxation, subsidies, privileges, and much more.

    Seems to me that we should be gradually substantially increasing the size of the reserve, and spreading storage to numerous far-flung sites rather than in just a couple of sites that can be easily sabotaged. But that would require both genuine concern for the safety and well-being of the American people, and competence. Neither is much on display from the us government and its apparatchiks and allies in the military complex, large multinational corporations, and the entertainment, “news” / social-media, finance, and banking “industries.”

    Their plan, such as it is, appears to be provoking a major war against Iran or God forbid, Russia, while having pitifully a small reserve of petroleum and other essentials on hand at home (including insulin and other medications), and a degraded and still-declining industrial base in reserve. Tough talk, even obnoxious and belligerent talk, from “my” government, but it is no longer backed up by effective world-class power, efficiency, competence, and cohesion. Yeah, the regular people here and in Mexico will once again be the ones to suffer.

  180. Herald says:
    @Sean

    Ah the super fuze rears its head again.

    Taking out Russia’s ICBM silos assumes that enough missiles get past Russia’s short range defensive systems. Then you will have to effectively neutralise Russia’s growing undersea and sea surface offensive nuclear capacity.

    Do you feel lucky enough to give it a try?

  181. @follyofwar

    Pompeo was playing a role for the cameras. He’s a snake, just like Bolton, just not as crazy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump chose Elliot Abrams to replace Bonkers Bolton. One thing is certain; the push for war isn’t over.

  182. Herald says:
    @kemerd

    Agreed, agreed button already pressed.

  183. Sean says:
    @kemerd

    A Nuclear First Strike Should Still Be an Option for America.

    Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate introduced legislation last week to prevent the U.S. from using nuclear weapons unless first attacked by nuclear weapons from another country. […]

    Analytically speaking, the No First Use Act is weak. For the U.S., first-strike capability remains a valuable option.

    • Replies: @foolisholdman
  184. JMcG says:
    @Ron B Liebermann

    This is hands down the dumbest comment I’ve ever read on the UR. That includes all those by Corvinus, Tiny Duck, and Nick Diaz. You must be two people, because one person couldn’t come up with something so monumentally stupid on his own.

    • Agree: foolisholdman
    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  185. wayfarer says:
    @Johnny Walker Read

    Very interesting article, thanks.

    Live about 750 meters from where these unrestricted afterburner takeoffs take place. It’s super loud, especially when the F-35s are scrambling here at MCAS Yuma. I have to plug my ears, smell the kerosene at times, and always watch the pop-rivets rattling loose in my POS travel-trailer.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Corps_Air_Station_Yuma

  186. @Biff

    The war of 1812 is not mentioned because we started it, by invading Canada, and had our heads handed to us by the Brits.

  187. @J. Gutierrez

    IIRC there was no aircraft carrier. That was seen as a big problem and so a makeshift thingy was rigged up, consisting of a huge freighter with a flight deck built over it.

    Another ship, HMS Sheffield (a destroyer? A cruiser?) was hit by a French-made Exocet rocket, which was accidentally mis-set, so that the explosive warhead did not explode, but the intact missile went and lodged inside the ship with its engine still burning full tilt. The ship was an experimental one, made out of a new Aluminium armour, which the rocket set fire to and the vessel burned until it sank, as water is no use at all to fight a fire in aluminium.

    The Argentinians were badly hampered by the fact that the telephone connection between Port Stanley and Buenos Aires was routed through England and they did not realise this until well into the war.

    According to survivors of that war that I have talked to, there were examples of abysmal generalship on both sides and the British were faced with knee-deep mud and ankle-length boots. The Argentinian soldiers had boots that came up at least to their knees.

  188. Tom Welsh says:
    @anaccount

    “Of course if there was a problem we could alway annex a piece of northern Mexico…”

    You already did – about 2/3 of Mexico, in 1848.

  189. @Sean

    For the U.S., first-strike capability remains a valuable option.

    Valuable? Compared to what?

    • Replies: @Sean
    , @Sean
  190. Tom Welsh says:
    @Biff

    Thanks for your acknowledgement, Biff. Although I pointed out that the British burned Washington, I should admit for the sake of fairness that the war was at best a draw from the British point of view. They didn’t manage to hold any territory, and they lost the final battle of New Orleans – which, ironically, was fought some time after the peace treaty had been signed.

    • Replies: @Hank Yobo
  191. @RadicalCenter

    Seems to me that we should be gradually substantially increasing the size of the reserve, and spreading storage to numerous far-flung sites rather than in just a couple of sites that can be easily sabotaged.

    You are assuming that some country wants to attack the USA. That will only happen if the USA attacks them first.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  192. Tom Welsh says:
    @Herald

    “Do you feel lucky enough to give it a try?”

    The most frightening thing is how many of those people DO seem to feel lucky.

    “The place where optimism most flourishes is the lunatic asylum”.

    – Havelock Ellis, The Dance of Life

    • Replies: @Sean
  193. @another fred

    Thanks for the URL [1]! That is going to be a very useful web site.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] http://www.literarydevices.com/

  194. Hank Yobo says:
    @J. Gutierrez

    Would you please provide the name of the “Aircraft carrier” sunk by the Argentines. The “Atlantic Conveyor” was not a warship. Also, the British did an admirable job of sending a task force thousands of miles across the Atlantic and defeating the invaders in their own back yard. The Argentines couldn’t win even though the combat zones were only a few hundred miles off their coastline, a tremendous home field advantage.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @Anon
    , @J. Gutierrez
  195. FB says: • Website
    @anon

    Pretty good comment…the F22 is actually not the great airplane the fanboy media makes it out to be…It’s really not an improvement over the F15, in the estimation of legendary USAF test pilot and fighter designer Col Everest Riccioni…report here…

    The ‘stealth’ coating added tremendous dead weight…resulting in a subpar fuel fraction of only 29 percent…sustained supersonic flight requires a fuel fraction closer to 40…this is a big advantage of the Russian Flankers…they carry a lot of fuel and can thus accomplish longer missions…and can fly supersonically a lot longer…The F22’s mission profile includes only a 100 nautical mile burst at supersonic…btw, the ‘supercruise’ fanfare is another nothingburger…at high cruise speeds of say Mach 2, the afterburner is not going to increase fuel consumption that much…about 20 percent…you’ll never get an airplane to fly M2 without reheat [except for the Concorde]…the only real benefit of supersonic cruise without reheat is that it lowers the airplane’s IR signature

    Stealth itself is way overblown…it is really nothing but a scam to enrich the MIC creatures…btw the high frequency fire control radars lock onto stealth sircraft just fine…it’s not just the low frequency radars…these work to identify the stealth aircraft at long range…and through data fusion with the acquisition and fire control radars, the latter are then able to pinpoint the sector that was identified by the longwave radar….

    Stealth really only provides some RCS reduction against radars at the same altitude, ie enemy fighters…ground based radars get a view of the airplane’s broad underbelly…it’s impossible to shape that for radio wave dispersal…same thing happens when the airplane enters a banking turn…even an enemy fighter radar will register the stealth airplane, which can increase it RCS by two orders of magnitude…

    Also adversary doctrine comes into play…the Russian ground radars are data linked with the Flankers that are confronting the F22s…so those pilots have the benefit of all those powerful radars in the S300/400 air defense systems…the Russian doctrine is to rely on ground controlled interception…which again works for the defender but not the aggressor, since he has no ground assets there…

    Finally it should be noted that the USAF has given up on the Raptor…it was supposed to get an infrared search and track, but that’s been scrapped…It only recently go the high off-boresight heat seeker AIM-9x…but still doesn’t have the helmet mounted sight to go with it…something Russian fighters have had for 30 years…it takes 50 hours of maintenance for each F22 flight hour…so their sortie rate is subpar…

    Also about BVR…that is fantasyland spouted by people who are trying to sell the F35 flying brick…In the entire history of aerial warfare the confirmed BVR kills in combat can be counted on one hand…USAF study here…

    The F35 can only make a 5G sustained turn…4.6 for the USAF model…that’s less than the Vietnam era F4 ‘Phantom’ which would easily outturn an F35…it also has slow acceleration in the crucial regime of M 0.8 to M 1.2, when you need to outrun a pursuer, or catch up to a bogey…a terrible airplane by all objective measures…the ‘sizzle’ is supposed to about all its ‘advanced sensors’ and sensor fusion with other aircraft or ground assets…there is nothing new in that…airplanes have been using data links for a long time to share information…there is no new magical ‘sensor’ that has been invented…the helmet is too heavy and doesn’t work well…the software is too complicated and the pilot will be blasted by a firehose of information…most of it irrelevant…

  196. Mulegino1 says:
    @AWM

    That laughing you hear is at the expense of the Vietnamese, Taliban, Mighty Grenada, Panama, Somalia, and Iraq.

    When was the last time the US engaged in a war at rough conventional parity with the enemy? The Chinese in Korea nearly seventy years ago? The latter ended in a still unresolved armistice.

    The US has quite simply never prevailed militarily against overwhelming odds.

    The Russian “silent service” is likely just as good as ours, and with their superiority in ballistic missile technology and antiaircraft weaponry, the Rainbow Diversity Brigade is not likely to sally forth for making the world safe for sodomy anytime soon:

    https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2015/04/23/soldiers-in-high-heels-draw-online-outburst/

    • Replies: @AWM
  197. @niteranger

    Interesting that you bring up the low quality of the Israeli IDF.

    A while back a former US Army Sergeant who was a liason to the IDF for around 6 months in the past few years noted how pitifully amateurish the IDF actually is.

    His observations were mostly based on the lack of professional NCOs in the IDF since only officers can have careers in that service. As a result, the IDF has no inherent enlisted backbone, which is essential to any army.

    The Sergeant went on to note how poorly disciplined most of the units were as a result of having too many short-timers in their ranks…

  198. @anon

    I wouldn’t hold your breath about Blue States not fighting back. A good part of the Northeast is just about as well armed as any Red State. We just don’t make such a big deal about weaponry. And the Northeastern states were the first to talk secession (circa 1819) before it became popular with the South.

    Also, a number of Blue States are already implementing nullification of federal edicts (ie: sanctuary cities) whereas this does not seem to be a thing with Southern States. So in this regard, it is the Blue States that have already begun the preliminary symptoms that could lead to a major secession event down the road.

    The problem with the Red States is that the majority of their politicians are simply to stupid to figure out which way is up and do everything in their power to disenfranchise their own constituencies while the “good ol’ boys” vote for idiots like Trump because he talks like them.

    I am not saying we in the northeast have political brilliance in abundance but the Northeastern States, or Blue States in general, do a lot more towards taking care of their own than the Southern States.

    Despite the advantages or disadvantages of either region, I believe you will find many in the Northeast fighting against a martial takeover by the federal government just as much as a similar reaction will occur in the South.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  199. @Chris Mallory

    True for the US as a country. In fact, we’d be a lot better off behaving like one. Instead, globohomo want to use the US as an Empire that has business everywhere, even when the elites cannot find that place on a map. The imperial policy is killing our country.

  200. Fred only forgot to mention that other big countries’ military forces are in much worse shape than US forces.

    Nice try, Fred.

  201. This idea that American planners are delusionally over-confident is false. The major combat scenarios call for big losses. It is known that we lose multiple big ships and a lot of people die. I don’t know why people like Fred keep claiming that people in the pentagon don’t know what a real war will entail. The politicians and enlisted probably don’t know, but plenty of officers and civilians do.

  202. Miggle says:

    Thanks for an eye-opening article, Fred Reed. Your writing is absolutely brilliant. Admittedly, I had to stop while reading it to eat a small can of tuna fish. But “a psychopathic cockatoo, two loon Christians, and a pathologically aggressive momma’s boy”, wow!

    This “jobs” business is weird. What the politicians want is “jobs”, for votes, so they pay mega-giant corporations mega-amounts of money and a little of it is spent by the giants on the proletariat, paying a few of them to do jobs not yet automated. Note that “jobs” is different from “work.” The first means servitude, the second doesn’t.

    Wouldn’t it be better to impose progressive income tax, with the mega-rich paying 99 percent of their incomes in tax and everyone over 15, working or not, wanting to work or not, receiving as of right $10,000 per week as Universal Basic Income?

    What is remarkable about the modern world is the scale of the wealth of the top few, with Jeff Bezos having (at a guess) more wealth than all the pre-WWI kings and queens of Europe combined. The scale is staggering. There is plenty of money to go round. Why isn’t it sent around?

  203. peterAUS says:
    @Hank Yobo

    I see you are keen to…ahm…debate…. the Falklands War here with “pro-Argentinian/anti-British” types.
    Good luck.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  204. AWM says:
    @Mulegino1

    The Russian Submarine force?

    Now, really loud laughing!

    • Replies: @Mulegino1
    , @Miggle
  205. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hank Yobo

    You could look for yourself , Hank , you can read from varied sources , can you , please ?

    The Invincible

    The Atlantic conveyor was a military logistic ship , you already knew that , ? are you trying to
    sugest us that it was an inocent fishing boat ?

    https://www.infobae.com/sociedad/2019/05/12/el-letal-ataque-al-atlantic-conveyor-el-error-estrategico-que-les-provoco-a-los-ingleses-la-mayor-perdida-logistica-en-malvinas/

    Of course the english are superior , man , the superior race , real whites , pure whites , we know that , but the poor argentinians did a good job , don`t you think so ? , they severely damaged the Royal Navy ,and considering that the english had US help , and that the french refused to sell more misiles to Argentina , the poor argentinians did an excelent job .

    I hope the brits get finally out of the UE , those farisaic homoerotic english prima donnas are unsuferable , most of the EU countries are fed up with them and expects they will finally respect their own referendum and go ..

    But , as you say , Argentina is close to the Malvinas , colonial England is far away , sooner or later the english pirates will be expelled from all the lands they occupy .

  206. peterAUS says:
    @Steve Naidamast

    Good comment.

    As for that about IDF and

    …A while back a former US Army Sergeant who was a liason to the IDF for around 6 months in the past few years noted how pitifully amateurish the IDF actually is.

    His observations were mostly based on the lack of professional NCOs in the IDF since only officers can have careers in that service. As a result, the IDF has no inherent enlisted backbone, which is essential to any army.

    The Sergeant went on to note how poorly disciplined most of the units were as a result of having too many short-timers in their ranks…

    especially

    …has no inherent enlisted backbone…

    that is correct.

    Still, the effectiveness of armed forces is much more than that.
    You apply Western, actually Anglo-American approach which is, fundamentally, correct (US and/or British Brigade IS much more competent than Israeli), but, Israeli Brigade is much more motivated.
    The Mission is different.
    And, the Enemy. It’s not, potentially, Russian/Chinese but somebody else. Well described in “Arabs in war”.

    IDF is, actually, what armed populace is supposed to be about. A nation-state, based on race, again the enemy.
    I guess we both know it’s a big topic. I suspect too big for this pub.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  207. @JMcG

    Nah, I see much dumber comments here every day. Anyway, what’s wrong with a little union busting? Fuck a bunch of commie unions anyway. Hey, you ain’t a Teamster or something like that are you?

    • Replies: @JMcG
  208. Hank Yobo says:
    @Tom Welsh

    The British did hold the American post of Michilimackinac–the key to the western fur trade and its concomitant Native alliances–as well as strategic Fort Niagara at the end of the war. Conquests in Maine had been formed into the colony of “New Ireland”: another territorial acquisition returned to the US after the Treaty of Ghent. Although the British expeditionary force withdrew from the Mississippi River delta it remained undaunted and besieged Mobile in February 1815. Word of the peace treaty arrived after the British seizure of Fort Bowyer there. So, the last engagement of the war was the British victory in Alabama. Moreover, keeping possession of the Canadas against long odds was far from “a draw from the British point of view.”

  209. Mulegino1 says:
    @AWM

    The loud laughing is echoed by the laughter directed at the “mightiest Army” in history which has not been able to subdue the Afghan sheep herders in almost twenty years.

  210. peterAUS says:
    @peterAUS

    Actually…maybe there is something those on the “Argie” side could provide.

    Any information about Captain Tomas Fernandez (of Mt Kent …) would be appreciated.
    Or…what happened to him since that night/engagement? Is he…hehe…in good health now and enjoying his retirement? I hope so.

    Anyone?

  211. anon[414] • Disclaimer says:

    “The United States cannot fight a large land war, as for example against Russia, China, or Iran. Such a war would require conscription. The public would not stand for it. America no longer enjoys the sort of patriotic unity that it did at the beginning of the war against Vietnam.”

    Although there wasn’t much unity for Vietnam…face it we can’t even get out of Afghanistan, which was the fifth poorest country on the planet. Must be a moral boost for the home team.
    War after war after war, looks like most of the patriots willing to fight for this land are gone having been replaced by new immigrants. Who is going fight for their rights over us or to try and create a country for them to live in? So with all those deaths there went your patriotic unity. They all carry their own flag and have a hyphen to show their real nation.

    [MORE]

    1 American Civil War 1861–65 750,000 (est.)(U.S./Confederate)[86] 520 31,443,000 2.385% (1860)
    2 World War II 1941–45 405,399 297 133,402,000 0.307% (1940)
    3 World War I 1917–18 116,516 279 103,268,000 0.110% (1920)
    4 Vietnam War 1961–75 58,209 11 179,323,175 0.032% (1970)
    5 Korean War 1950–53 54,246 45 151,325,000 0.036% (1950)
    6 American Revolutionary War 1775–83 25,000 11 2,500,000 1.00% (1780)
    7 War of 1812 1812–15 15,000 15 8,000,000 0.207% (1810)
    8 Mexican–American War 1846–48 13,283 29 21,406,000 0.057% (1850)
    9 Iraq War 2003–2011 4,497 2 294,043,000 0.002% (2010)
    10 Philippine–American War 1899–1902 4,196 3.8 72,129,001 0.006% (1900)
    11 Spanish–American War 1898 2,246 8.9 62,022,250 0.004% (1890)
    12 War in Afghanistan 2001–present 2,216 0.36 294,043,000
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

    Not a conclusive list.

    I think they should build a wall around California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas. Convince all the left to move there then cede it to Mexico.

  212. sidpits says:
    @Tom Welsh

    In WWII the Japanese invaded and occupied islands in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska.American territory just as American as Kansas.

    • Replies: @Bookish1
  213. Biff says:
    @Other Jeff

    I have a 21 year old son, who mostly has similar opinions to me. For some reason he really has a bug up his butt for China (I don’t hold any China-specific animosity). If he was drafted to go to war somewhere else he would likely go, but he said if we ever go to war with China, he’s signing up to go fight.

    Little does he know that it may be the Chinese alone that will be standing in the way of total Zionist world domination. He should save himself first.

  214. Herald says:
    @DESERT FOX

    Hard to disagree with what you say.

    In reality, I have little expectation that Trump will what is sensible. Very likely he will allow the US to get sucked into a disastrous war with Iran, as he continues to suck up to the zionists, both at home and in Israel.

  215. @AWM

    They must not be very familiar with russia’s capabilities and equipment then.

  216. Hank Yobo says:
    @Anon

    The Invincible was, the Belgrano wasn’t. Let’s let the Falklanders decide their nationality. The popular vote and human rights have a strong tradition in Argentinian political history, don’t they?

  217. Jaque says:

    I read the authors criticisms of the US military but nowhere does the author provide us the state of Americas adversaries. War is not one sided, and as crippled as the author claims the US is, its a sure bet Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are far weaker.

    I doubt the author knows the inventory status of the DOD and the inventory of spare tracks for the nations armored vehicles. Its clear the author knows nothing more than what is publicly available. The US still has the ability to rapidly mobilize industry as it did in WWII. No war plan survives the first day of battle. But theres no other country I would rather be in should another world war break out. Stealth aircraft airframes can be repaired using standard composite technology quickly but would suffer from a larger radar signature. The author fails to give credit to the ingenuity of the maintainers and mechanics that will always rise up and solve difficult to fix hardware situations. The F35 has come a long way from the early doom and gloom reports. If the US returned to conscription there are 20 million illegals that would volunteer if that gave them citizenship. Human Cannon fodder isnt the problem. And long gone are set piece wars that chew up men like the Iran-Iraq war did. If a Chinese nuke took out New York city the entire US population would be demanding retaliation. Americans may be liberal but they are still patriotic.

    Should a world war scale conflagration occur, my bet is on my country winning. The United States of America.

  218. @J

    Of course there have been nonwhite vets and heroes for the us. We live not far from the Jap-American National Museum in little Tokyo LA and otherwise know the history and appreciate those guys.

    But overwhelmingly white European people fought our wars and served in the us military — including my proudly-American Italian, German, and Slavic forebears in three generations — not Mexicans or Japanese in large proportion.

    I do not think that enough Chinese and Indian and Muslim kids will fight for the USA like that.

    Then again, to be fair, I’d guess that a much higher proportion of white youth wouldn’t defend this country in a legit defensive or survival war compared to a generation ago, let alone compared to three generations ago in ww2. Hope we don’t have to find out during our lifetimes, or my children’s.

  219. Rumpole5 says:
    @lysias

    Don’t we still have any of those “rods from God” satellites that we supposedly used to implode the N Korea nuclear complex?

  220. Logan says:

    Interesting article. But Fred seems to assume American militaries decay but others aren’t subject to the same entropy.

  221. peterAUS says:
    @Jaque

    From

    I read the authors criticisms…

    to

    …like the Iran-Iraq war did.

    Yep.

    As for

    Should a world war scale conflagration occur, my bet is on my country winning. The United States of America.

    Now, that’s just…..M.A.D. Acronym.

  222. @foolisholdman

    You’ll be glad to know, I was saying that the warmongering US Government could provoke a needless war against Iran or even Russia.

    We’d agree that that’s evil and unwise in itself, PLUS they’re not making provisions for the people here to have what we would need to ameliorate shortages during even a limited and non-nuclear war.

    Because even a non-belligerent restrained government should make such reserve provisions — not for a war that we provoke, but only in the event of a defensive war (or even a conflict that doesn’t directly involve us) that severely impairs imports of such resources.

    That includes a massive reserve of oil, natural gas, potash (for fertilizer), and medically / industrially/militarily useful metals and minerals. Again, our government increasingly risks war while leaving us particularly unprepared here at home.

  223. Corvinus says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    “the chance of the U.S. getting involved in a serious war, irrespective of any benefit to the American people, remains high.”

    Not under Trump’s watch!

    “On the other hand, a serious military defeat might lead those American people to conclude that their leadership needs a top-to-bottom change, involving rope and lampposts.”

    Sans the violence. It’s just armchair warrior talk on your part.

    Do you enjoy being ill-informed?

  224. FB says: • Website
    @FB

    My link to USAF BVR paper didn’t come through…here it is…

    http://pogoarchives.org/labyrinth/11/09.pdf

  225. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve read “peer adversary”…

    On one hand you could argue that neither Russia or China have ANY combat experience in the past 30+ years. Apart from war games, computer simulations and blanks, neither has any form of combat leadership forged under actual enemy fire. Russian officers of that era are retired and China – they have nada. Our own forces on the other hand have stayed “warmed up” in Iraq/Afghanistan for nearly 20 years now.

    That said, we should remember the start of WWI, where America had virtually no projectable force or experienced soldiers. We learned quickly though at such battles as Belleau Wood. In WWII our untrained, conscripts also learned quickly in the mountains of Italy and the Kasserine Pass. The Pacific was a bloodbath we probably shouldn’t repeat. The Chinese too could learn quickly as is their nature.

    The real difference in WWI and II was logistics and technology. I suspect these will also play a large role in any future conflict. What keeps me up most at night is our fragile reliance on the communications technology that powers these muscles. While a strength against goat herders, this may well be our achilles heel against Russia/China (they will be unified against us) as they have the proven means to negate this advantage via network hacking and satellite disruption.

    What then?

    Our fate probably rests on our will to fight and endure economic pain. Nuclear weapons notwithstanding.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @foolisholdman
  226. Miggle says:
    @AWM

    The Russian Submarine force?

    Now, really loud laughing!

    I remember a couple of years ago reading of a Russian submarine reporting from the Caribbean when no-one in the US military knew it was there.

    Are you sure there are not a few dozen nuclear-armed Russian submarines 20 miles off the US Pacific and Atlantic coasts?

    How do you know?

    • Replies: @Pat Kittle
  227. peterAUS says:
    @pedrothemerciless

    On one hand you could argue that….Russia ….. have ANY combat experience in the past 30+ years. Apart from war games, computer simulations and blanks, ……has any form of combat leadership forged under actual enemy fire.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War…25 years.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War….
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War…..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass….

    • Replies: @idealLogus
  228. denk says:

    amurikkano’s perpetual warfare in a nutshell…

    Madeleine Albright

    ‘What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?’

  229. Not just a few congress vritters will be using this article in their budget debated. Thanks alot.

  230. Paw says:
    @Blankaerd

    I believe the fighter planes as well as the aircraft carriers are the ending ,sitting ducks..
    Over one hundred years old…It helps to thinks that Russians were helpless in Afganistan.
    And it is very comfortable.But it is not like that. They even got inside the Tora Bora. They left after they saw people turned against the regime and the /communist/regime lasted another 3 years.. Tsunami of money and weapons went there from almost the whole world. And crowds of international fanatical terrorists , trained in USA, too.
    The shepherds,of course , for somebody…
    They did not see the sense of it. Compare with Chechnya. And now Syria.
    Low morale oh , yes. It shows.
    Besides they run there Selling show of military equipment and with the great success…
    China is hit very hard with holding trillions of USA debts. USA shoots itself into international isolation.. They only speaks of the language aggression and emptiness behind is visible and repulsive..
    The Second world war . Approximately the same number of Czech, died as well. This speaks itself..Rather ridiculous to speak about the war !
    No one touched anything inside USA. The whole war. It is going to be different in the case of the other war..

  231. By-tor says:
    @Jaque

    The US did away with fallout shelters in 1995-6, IIRC. The US obviously does not care what happens to you nor any other American civilians.

    Russia has always had resources to get millions of its citizens into shelters. Their Emergency Situations Ministry ran drills last year across the whole country.

  232. Sean says:
    @foolisholdman

    By far the most likely route to a first strike is by a mistaken belief that the other side has launched , and the Russians are vastly more likely to make that mistake than America. The danger of a Russia Thermonuclear First Strike out of a clear blue skue will grow ever more threatening.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident
    On January 25, 1995 a team of Norwegian and US scientists launched a Black Brant XII four-stage sounding rocket from the Andøya Rocket Range off the northwestern coast of Norway. The rocket carried scientific equipment to study the aurora borealis over Svalbard. This event resulted in a full alert being passed up through the military chain of command all the way to President Boris Yeltsin, who was notified and the “nuclear briefcase” (known in Russia as Cheget) used to authorize nuclear launch was automatically activated. Yeltsin activated his “nuclear keys” .

    It would seem that history has proved John von Neumann and Bertrand Russell were correct when advocated a nuclear strike, or the threat of one, to prevent the Russians acquiring the atomic bomb. Having exhausted the low-hanging fruit Russia are increasingly backward and ever more paranoid and defensive as a result. The risk of them making a mistake and thinking America is trying a sneaky first strike is only going to increase as the West pulls further and further away from them. When it becomes feasible Russia will surely be disarmed. as Iran is going to be. The low hanging fruit is all Chinamarican.

    FORMER GOOGLE EXEC: AI WILL REPLACE 40 PERCENT OF JOBS IN 15 YEARS
    “But in his most recent book, “AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,” Lee argues that AI displacement will be fundamentally different.
    Lee told CBS that this wave of automation and worker displacement will happen much more quickly than others, such as the invention and distribution of the steam engine. Part of that is because AI algorithms can be shared around the world among developers and business leaders with little need for new infrastructure. No railroads or highways or power grids need to be built.What’s left to be determined, Lee said, is whether the best moneymaking AI will come from America, which houses most of the top AI developers, or China, where smartphone apps like WeChat give businesses rich data on nearly all aspects of users’ lives.”.

    The mass of human beings are going to become economically and militarily redundant. The Japanese with their robotisation fetish understand this.

    • Replies: @Herald
    , @Counterinsurgency
  233. stevecel says:

    Why do people think hacking is somehow the last thing America has an advantage in? All this talk of Russian and Chinese hackers doing anything but hoping to get a job in Silicon Valley is just silliness. The US will render most of Chinese facilities useless and proceed to do what they’ve done best for the past 200 years in short order. The problem is, with China there are about 1½ billion of them so even in short order will take quite a while. The status quo is not going to make it through this century. Americans are only self-flagellatingly apprehensive because they know the good life will be at an end if they even have to get up from the couch.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  234. Sean says:
    @Tom Welsh

    The best side can play safe for a guaranteed win. The underdog must necessarily choose the high risk strategy. Thus, Russia’s backwardness makes it volatile.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @FB
    , @foolisholdman
  235. idealLogus says: • Website
    @peterAUS

    You forgot about the war in Syria. Even as we speak Russian soldiers are rotated through Syria front and are trained in real fighting conditions.
    If I understood correctly the American war machine is very dependent on the satellite network. F35 aircraft must maintain a continuous connection with a server based in Florida – if i remember corectly.
    If Russia manages to neutralize the satellite network in the first hours of the war, the US military capabilities will reach the level of the Vietnam war.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  236. Sean says:
    @foolisholdman

    Compared to waiting until they hit us first, you fool.

    • Replies: @foolisholdman
  237. Parbes says:
    @Diversity Heretic

    “.. a serious military defeat might lead those American people to conclude that their leadership needs a top-to-bottom change, involving rope and lampposts.”

    The American MSM should be included in the “leadership that needs to be changed via ropes and lampposts”. Without their connivance, slick propaganda and brainwashing, the U.S. regime would not be able to carry out 80-90% of what it does, internally or externally. The entire MSM is completely incestuous with the U.S. ruling elite, and acts as a sort of extended think tank-cum-propaganda arm of the U.S. regime. At an individual level, many of the higher-level personalities in the American MSM are actually part and parcel of the regime elites/deep state; and participate in the formulation of various policies, picking international “adversaries” and “allies”, warmongering etc.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
    , @Che Guava
  238. @Anon

    You are making yourself look silly.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @Anon
  239. @anon

    The Vietnam War destroyed the US ability to draft its citizens. Since the democracy of the 19th and early 20th Century was a consequence of the contemporary perceived need for mass armies, democracy and any concern at all for the welfare of the population vanished with the ability to draft citizens and the decision to use long term professionals augmented by short term volunteers.
    The change was probably an inevitable result of the increased firepower seen in WW I and WW II, especially towards its end, but was also a consequence of the fall of governments that attempted to use mass armies after 1914. Turned out that mass armies meant mass casualties, to include mass maiming and death _and_ psychological trauma. The citizens who returned home were either hostile or neutral towards the government that had subjected them to such casualties, and that was enough to make sponsoring a mass arm war suicidal politically.
    The US Government (Democratic, of course) tried for the last time in US history to avoid the political disfavor of combat deaths to a mass army by drafting the very young, and the Left (after their takeover) tried to marginalize (“kill off” would be a better word) anybody who made it back. Neither policy was successful: both the Internationalist Democrats and the New Left unsuccessful politically for more than the next 20 years.

    And all this was accompanied by media fed good cheer and optimism, just like the end scene in “Life of Brian”.
    The era is not one of my better memories.

    Counterinsurgency

  240. @J. Gutierrez

    Thanks for the offer. I was thinking in terms of some web links, but my Spanish isn’t used enough to understand Spanish language newspapers. For various reasons I use e-mail very sparingly, so I can’t take your offer up, though.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  241. JMcG says:
    @Twodees Partain

    No, I’m not. I’m just imagining the heads of the UAW and the Machinists getting together over lobster to discuss which fifth generation fighter they’d like to build next.
    Sure, it would probably be better than the way it’s done now, but so very very far from reality as to earn the title of Dumbest Comment Of All Time.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  242. bluedog says:
    @Jim Smith

    Strange how when the one of choice can’t/won’t deliver on his campaign promises, that its always someone else’s fault, (in this case the deep state) but yet can’t put their tongue to just who or what consist of the deep state, which is only the billionaire club which the one of choice belongs to,as his double didget increase in the funds for the MIC has increased every year he has been in office,along with another trillion added to the debt,while those who occupy the amen corner still sing his praise.!!

  243. bluedog says:
    @Ron B Liebermann

    Best joke I’ve read/heard today,corporations/companies consisting of the MIC come up with the new toys, makes little difference if they work or not,then they take the dollars ripped off from the last new toy they made and grease the slimy hands of those in congress so that congress buys their next new toys,and yet we have fools like this that it seems are blind in both eyes, trying to put the blame on the workers,unions.!!!

  244. @J. Gutierrez

    J.G.

    the US and France sided with Britton.

    Some would dispute the extent of their help. Don’t forget that the Argentine attack on British territory was an attack on a NATO member state and we’re continually reminded that that is the same as an attack on all of NATO, but was it really? Where were the other NATO members’ navy ships in that expeditionary force? Yet all of NATO got together to make war on Yugoslavia that never attacked a NATO member state.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  245. @peterAUS

    Did I hear you say something, anything, even infinitesimally teeny weeny bit positive about the IDF – in this pub? Let’s hope certain ears aren’t listening here and now and are sleeping over their hangovers from their last session in the pub. As if any are present they’ll be choking on their beer and frothing at the mouth … Good Lord you could be in for a verbal hiding. LOL.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  246. @Jaque

    The only wars the US fights are wars of aggression on foreign lands, if that’s anything to feel proud and patriotic about?

  247. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    many of the nato european countries , would rather fight against England , than against Argentina , and the Malvinas is not England , it is just a colony , as the UN has recognized .

  248. Bookish1 says:
    @sidpits

    Sorry, Alaska was not a state of the u.s. back then

  249. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    And you are making yourself look like Napoleon , a genious .

    Respect .

  250. @Commentator Mike

    France refused to give Argentina the arming codes for the missiles they sold them. The Missiles they used to sink that Carrier, because I believe it sank on its way to England or as it arrived. France refused to sell them parts and additional missiles to fight the war. If you haven’t seen the documentary of that war, do so brother, you will get an idea how brave those pilots were…

  251. @Rev. Spooner

    Huh? Are you sure you are commenting to the right person? I will acknowledge that I do live in an occupied country. But here in Rawles Land(North Idaho) there are still legions of patriots and liberty-minded people who will not go gentle into the good night. One of the things I learned when I was a Peace Officer is that when you have nothing left to lose, you tend to lose it. This is why I keep prepping for the chastisement which is sure to come. Bleib ubrig.

  252. @Parbes

    Parbes,

    Your comment reminded me of the invasion of Panama. The MSM Reporters were literally masturbating when a screen shot of an Apache Heli or a Warthog Airplane was flashed on their screens. It was sicken how those POS talked about US fire power! After they had their bloody orgy of reporting, it was quite clear to me they had lost any sense of compassion, probably never had none!

    Fucking Whores all of them! There is a video that has gone viral here in Mexico, it shows a child molester on the ground rolling around, with the most beautiful white and spotted Pitbull I have ever seen feeding on the child molester’s penis and balls… while a very concerned citizen puts a towel over his mouth because he just won’t shut up! Fuck the ropes and poles brother…we’ll send you beautiful pitbulls that have a taste for penises and nutsacks! No one will ever think about fucking children again.

    But, you people think we’re animals and rather handle it the civilized way. Fake a hanging, send them to Israel, Burn the evidence and pretend it never happened!

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  253. Che Guava says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Achmed,

    I like your and many other’s posts, and understand why many of the U.S. posters on this site don’t like Fred’s posts about Mexico.

    1. He is trolling.

    2. He is providing a true image, when I first saw the giant hailstorm on TV (in a hospital waiting room), I had the impression that it must have been from somewhere southern Europe, the people looked pretty disciplined and mutually cooperative.

    3. He is making excuses for himself.

    4. He is totally disingenuous about why he and Consuela (or whatever the name) now live in a ‘gated community’.

    Except for point 4, I see no reason to complain.

    In any case, please consider my earlier post, the naval portion of the battle of Okinawa, mainly by air from Japan, since as said, we had almost no navy left, I am pretty sure it was the greatest tonnage sunk in a single battle in history.

    This is not to say that I despise U.S.N. sailors desperately trying (and at times, succeeding), in preventing death from above.

    I wish that we had had the resources to use rocket craft to knock B-29s out of the sky. The craft were present (both German and Japanese designs) but it seems the required fuel was very insufficient, also the number of rocket aircraft.

    Do you think that incinerating cities all over the place, finishing up with two atomic-bomb experiments (and threats to the USSR), with no regard for civilian casualities was a great idea?

  254. FB says: • Website
    @Sean

    You are the most ridiculous commenter on UNZ…by quite a margin…

    You spout nonsense about the US being close to ‘nuclear first strike capability’…but what do you actually know about physics and aerospace engineering…or the actual capabilities of space systems and similar military technologies…?

    Unlike your delusional world of make-believe, it is the US that is very backward in key aerospace technologies…the US has been unable to fly humans into space for a decade…they have to use Russian rocket engines to launch vital national security payloads into space for the last 20 years…because they don’t have the rocket technology for these mission-critical launches…

    Here is a statement to the House Committee on Armed Services by Julie Van Kleeck, vice president of Advanced Space and Launch Programs and Strategy at Aerojet Rocketdyne, the country’s flagship rocket engine maker…

    Since the end of the Cold War the U.S.rocket propulsion industrial base has shrunk significantly and a troubling technology gap has widened…the country is woefully behind in the area of liquid oxygen –hydrocarbon rocket engines.

    Russia is the world leader in hydrocarbon engines and a Russian produced engine,the RD-180 powers America’s most versatile U.S.launch vehicle,the Atlas V. The Russian RD-180 uses an advanced staged combustion cycle that provides significant launch vehicle performance benefit; thus it is not surprising that it was selected during the EELV competition to power the Atlas.

    There were no equivalent engines in the U.S.inventory at that time and, sadly, that situation still exists today…

    This speaks of a very low and actually regressing technical capability in hard science fields directly related to military capability…not surprising since the engineering capabilities of the US have been on a downward spiral for decades…the US graduates only half as many engineers as Russia…

    That is just one example directly related to ballistic missile capability…

    There are many more…a whole new and revolutionary class of weapons under the rubric of ‘hypersonics’…

    US lags behind Russia and China in hypersonic missile tech, officials say

    Gen. John Hyten, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, also stressed the importance of improved military technology and outlined the capabilities of hypersonic missiles during combat.

    “[Hypersonics] start out like a ballistic missile, but then it depresses the trajectory and then flies more like a cruise missile or an airplane. So it goes up into the low reaches of space, and then turns immediately back down and then levels out and flies at a very high level of speed,” he explained.

    Hyten also admitted in a Congressional testimony last week that U.S. missile defense cannot stop hypersonics.

    He said that the U.S. is instead relying on nuclear deterrence, or the threat of a retaliatory U.S. strike, as its defense against such missiles.

    “We don’t have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us, so our response would be our deterrent force, which would be the triad and the nuclear capabilities that we have to respond to such a threat,” Hyten told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

    He is talking about recent flight tests of the Russian Avangard boost-glide vehicle that were tracked by the US…and which burst the bubble of those pinheads who cried ‘Putin’s bluffing’…just a quick bit of technical background on how a boost glide vehicle works and why it’s such a game-changer compared to ballistic missiles…

    These flight vehicles are launched into space by a conventional rocket, but then they lower their trajectory by means of onboard attitude control systems, so that they dip into the upper reaches where the atmosphere is very thin, but still capable of producing lift on a lifting body…this lift allows the ‘glider’ to point its nose up again and escape to just above the atmosphere…it does that numerous times as it flies around the globe…changing direction constantly and flying at speeds of up to Mach 27…it is literally skipping off the surface of the atmosphere, like a pebble skipping on the smooth surface of a pond…

    But huge technical barriers have to be overcome to make such a vehicle possible…a ballistic warhead is ‘dumb’…it cannot change its trajectory, which is a huge challenge in flight dynamics at this speed and height, where air molecules are few and far between…then there is the temperature challenge…even entering the thin reaches of the high atmosphere, skin friction heating is so high that super materials need to be invented that can take that heat…for basic info see boost-glide…

    There is more…An entire new class of propulsion known as ‘scramjet’ engines is already in production on the Russian Zirkon hypersonic cruise missile…

    Scramjet propulsion is the only way an atmospheric flight vehicle with an air-breathing engine can reach hypersonic speeds, above Mach 5…the US is years behind and still in the experimental stage…not actually surprising since Russia flew the first scramjet engine back in 1991…at the time, the US-friendly Yeltsin regime decided to let NASA in on the flight testing of the Kholod scramjet testbed…this was in effect a huge technology transfer to the US…Nasa report here…

    But even with this Russian boost the US has not been able to make the scramjet engine work…various experimental test beds have been hit and miss, and any US scramjet engine is a long way from actual serial production…

    Why is the scramjet engine so important…?…because it is the kind of leap forward that the jet engine was to piston props after WW2…the implications for military and civilian aviation are huge…the US is nowhere in this technology…the Russians have figured out the chemistry required for a fast burning fuel that makes the scramjet feasible…which is why it is in production…US efforts with straight hydrogen fuel are hitting a wall…

    And lastly let’s look at the only US advance in recent years which is the Super Fuze for the Trident ballistic missile…I had a lengthy discussion about this with prof Ted Postol, who did most of the heavy lifting on the technical side of this evaluation…and which was then published by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists…

    There are a couple of problems with the super fuze concept…it works like this…since any ballistic warhead cannot change its trajectory in flight in order to compensate for being off-target, the only thing it can do is to time its detonation at the most opportune TIME…

    Now first the part about missing the target…even if the missile guidance system is perfectly accurate, the earth’s atmosphere has the final say…even a temperature change of 10 degrees Celsius can put the missile off its target by a considerable distance…there is nothing that can be done about that…predicting atmospheric conditions even at the altitudes that passenger jets fly at is a very inexact science…anyone who flies one of these jets for a living will tell you that even the forecast for the next hour is almost certain to be off by some amount…sometimes wildly off…

    So the super fuze is designed to ‘know’ if it is on the right target track…it does this by measuring its height from the ground by means of a radio altimeter…which is basically a small radar pointing down…most commercial jets use these, even some private planes…

    Now here is the problem with that…a ballistic missile like the Trident flies at about 7 to 8 kilometers per second…that is between Mach 25 and 30…the skin friction heating is huge…this means that the air surrounding the warhead turns into a plasma…which is simply a gas with an electric charge…this is the result of the high heat disassociating the nitrogen and oxygen atoms, which lose an electron and thus become positively charged…

    The problem with that is that the electrically charged plasma is a very effective shield against radio waves…which cannot penetrate this charged field…this is well known from the dawn of space travel as ‘telemetry blackout’…even the strong radio comms broadcast by ground control cannot penetrate into the crew cabin…communication is restored only once the capsule slows down enough that the plasma ‘shield’ dissipates…

    Ballistic missile warheads do not slow down like a capsule which is designed specifically with a broad underside to decelerate in the atmosphere…warheads are cone shaped and pointy and they lose very little speed in the atmosphere…

    According to my discussion with Prof Postol the radio altimeter is supposed to continuously take height measurements as it approaches its target…clearly there is a very big problem of basic physics involved here due to the plasma…this problem has not been solved…here is a paper from the AIAA [American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronomics] that explains this well known phenomenon…

    Blackout is caused when RF [radio frequency] transmission waves used for communication, telemetry, or guidance are attenuated and/or reflected by electrons in the plasma sheaths surrounding vehicles during hypersonic reentry. These sheaths containing electrons result from extreme heating of the air…

    …Communication is restored when plasma frequencies decrease, due mostly to deceleration to lower vehicle velocities…

    So the reality is that the super fuze cannot possibly work…it’s another case of the MIC selling expensive gizmos to a creduluous political class…

    The first strike capability dreamed of by technical illiterates is just delusion driven by inner insecurity…

    So what does all this add up to…?

    ‘Backward’ Russia is generations ahead in key aerospace technologies…the US is decaying into a society that seems incapable of tackling the most demanding technical challenges…which are still spaceflight, not smartphones…

    Fortunately Russia is country that has no desire for war…but it is also endowed with an academic and scientific establishment that is second to none…and which produces men and women of the highest caliber, whose work is truly impressive and on display for the entire world to take note and admire…

    I will also add that as an aerospace engineer who has done a lot of work in Russia, that Moscow has in the last few years transformed into the most impressive city in Europe…by far…this is a proud society with a rich heritage, and they are moving forward with impressive results…there is no chance that they will brook any kind of physical aggression by any crazies in the US…and they will hit very very hard…hard enough to knock some sense into fools who believe otherwise…

  255. Che Guava says:
    @Parbes

    *That’s the spirit!* as in the voice of Rutger Hauer (R.I.P.) as Roy Batty in a great old movie.

    Irony neither intended nor present.

  256. @Counterinsurgency

    No problem brother, I guess you get too much of this type of news…you are deffinately the most well informed group I have seen on the net…

    I attached someting that I had in my library…but you probably already read it!!!

    U.S. Oil Companies partnered with Mexico Drug Cartels to steal $43 Million in Oil from Mexican Government pipelines!

    Unbelievable Breaking News: U.S. Oil Companies partnered with Mexico Drug Cartels to steal $43 Million in Oil from Mexican Government pipelines. This article should be on the front page of every newspaper! These oil companies executives should go to prison — throw away the keys! You wonder where the Drug Cartels received their money? From crooked U.S. Executives!!!

    Fort Worth Star Telegram Reports:
    MEXICO CITY — U.S. refineries bought millions of dollars worth of oil stolen from Mexican government pipelines and smuggled across the border, the U.S. Justice Department told The Associated Press — illegal operations led by Mexican drug cartels expanding their reach. Criminals, mostly drug gangs, tap remote pipelines, sometimes building pipelines of their own, to siphon hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil each year, said the Mexican oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. At least one U.S. oil executive has pleaded guilty to conspiracy in such a deal.

    The U.S. Homeland Security department is scheduled today to return $2.4 million to Mexico’s tax administration, the first batch of money seized during a binational investigation into smuggled oil that authorities expect to lead to more arrests and seizures. “The United States is working with the Mexican government on the theft of oil,” said Nancy Herrera, spokeswoman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Houston. “It’s an ongoing investigation, with one indictment so far.”

    In that case, Donald Schroeder, president of Houston-based Trammo Petroleum, is scheduled to be sentenced in December after pleading guilty in May. In a $2 million scheme, Schroeder bought stolen Mexican oil that had been brought across the border in trucks and barges and sold it to various U.S. refineries, which she did not identify, Herrera said. Trammo’s tiny firm profited by about $150,000 in the scheme, she said.

    Schroeder’s attorneys said in an e-mail that neither they nor their client would respond to AP’s requests for comment. Bill Holbrook, spokesman for the National Petrochemical & Refiners Association, said a single indictment against a small company should not be used to smear the reputation of the entire U.S. oil industry “and is not indicative of how domestic refiners operate.” But in Mexico, federal police commissioner Rodrigo Esparza said the Zetas, a fierce drug gang aligned with the Gulf cartel, used false import documents to smuggle at least $46 million worth of oil in tankers to unnamed U.S. refineries.

    Mexico froze 149 bank accounts this year in connection with that crime, which continues at a record rate, according to Pemex.

    You guys have no clue what goes on south of the border, or anywhere in the world! You live in a bubble brother! And yet I get questioned when I write something that you think I made up and demand proof… I stopped posting here because Jacques Sheetes got fucked with about his comments, but came back because a few people on here do want to know! Chuck O, Rurik, Ahoy, Commentator Mike, Robjil and GeoKat to name a few, those motherfuckers know what’s going on and don’t pretend to know everything, I wish they were here in Mexico where they can make a difference. Rurik is a beast if you push his button, he will verbally burn a dumbass, that’s why I read his shit…

    Look at what that racist idiot Dannyboy wrote me…He doesn’t know a fucking thing about me…dumb ass thinks I’m a 4 foot, dark indigenous person he can talk down to, he is way wrong about that! I’ll take that bitch to school…

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  257. @Jaque

    If a Chinese nuke took out New York city the entire US population would be demanding retaliation.

    And if it took out only Washington and Langley?

    • Replies: @Herald
  258. @Nawi

    They should have recruited Brazilians as there attack forces the British would have imeadlity surrendered cuz it would be racist to kill a black

  259. @RadicalCenter

    I totally agree with you brother, we are really making changes here in Mexico. The new Pres has very strong approval ratings and Latin American leaders are watching his work. The new Argentine Pres sent people here to look over what he’s doing. He calls it La Quarta Transformacion – The Fourth Transformation…Thank you Sir, I usually get hate comments because I hate when commentators put the less fortunate people down with racist comments, and I let them know not while I’m on here!

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  260. @Sean

    Compared to waiting until they hit us first, you fool.

    You’re the fool. If they don’t think you are going to hit them first, they won’t hit you. What would be the benefit to either Russia or China in attacking the US except to prevent a first strike?

    Go and take a look at either, or if you can’t, talk to some one who has lived there a while or if you can’t even manage that, take a look at YouTube and see what China looked like before 1949 (and looks like now.) and Russia in 1945 and now. The idea that either country wants a war with the US or anyone else is absurd and is only put about to profit the MIC. (Oh! &BTW North Korea has no plans to attack the US either.)

  261. @Sean

    The best side can play safe for a guaranteed win. The underdog must necessarily choose the high risk strategy. Thus, Russia’s backwardness makes it volatile.

    There ain’t no such thing as “a guaranteed win.” Not any more.

    • Replies: @SeekerofthePresence
  262. @pedrothemerciless

    Our fate probably rests on our will to fight and endure economic pain. Nuclear weapons notwithstanding.

    No! It’s much, much, simpler than that! No one is threatening the US (except, possibly, Israel.)

    If you don’t threaten Russia &/or China* they are not going to attack the US. Nor is North Korea or Iran.
    *Too realistically, that is. Ordinary Trump-type(TM) or Bolton-type(TM) threats will just be ignored.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  263. DrDog says:

    Countries of large land mass — China, US, Russia, Brazil — cannot be conquered. The resources required to hold territory (if that is the goal) degrade the offensive capability of the attacker. Several countries with unique geography have the same outcome — Switzerland, Iran, Afghanistan — come to mind.

    The quality vs quantity paradox was covered quite well by Arthur C. Clark in a scifi short story.

  264. peterAUS says:
    @idealLogus

    You forgot about the war in Syria.

    No, I didn’t.
    The original question was about combat leadership. Leading, at least, battallions, in battles. No such thing in Syria.

    As for conventional war between USA and Russia (or China for that matter), I envy people who have enough time to focus on it. I just think of M.A.D. For one minute only.

  265. @anon

    “The United States cannot fight a large land war, as for example against Russia, China, or Iran. Such a war would require conscription. The public would not stand for it. America no longer enjoys the sort of patriotic unity that it did at the beginning of the war against Vietnam.”

    Even with conscription, such a war would be a hopeless undertaking from the very start. The US is used to fighting with air superiority. How would it get that? It is used to having huge amounts of materiel, It would have to bring it across thousands of contested miles. It would be fighting people who were defending their homes. What sort of ideological state do you think the Psywar bods could induce in US troops to match that? How would they get the requisite number of troops to China? How many would they need? The WW2 Japanese had millions of troops in China and it was not nearly enough to defeat the 500mln Chinese. There are now 1,300mln. Bear in mind that neither Russia nor China are all that “Technologically Backward”! These are not ignorant rice farmers or camel herders. China is roughly the size of the USA and Russia is much bigger. (When you get to Moscow you are half-way across Europe and then, after the other half of Europe, Siberia starts.)

    The idea of deliberately starting a war with them is a fantasy and likely to remain so. Of course, with the likes of Bolton near the levers of power one cannot be sure, but The MIC is doing so well out of the existing state of uneasy peace that I do not see it wanting a big hot war any time soon.

  266. peterAUS says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Did I hear you say something, anything, even infinitesimally teeny weeny bit positive about the IDF – in this pub?

    Definitely. If only “we” could have an armed force as IDF. Oh my…..would be beautiful.

    Let’s hope certain ears aren’t listening here and now and are sleeping over their hangovers from their last session in the pub.
    As if any are present they’ll be choking on their beer and frothing at the mouth … Good Lord you could be in for a verbal hiding. LOL.

    Of course. I like to help. Better to offload here than on a wife/girlfriend or worse, kids. Besides, that’s what the ignore list and mastery of skim reading are. Skimming the first sentence of those who aren’t on the list, that is.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  267. PJ London says:
    @The Alarmist

    “God created war so that Americans would learn geography.”
    ― Mark Twain

  268. Herald says:
    @Sean

    Maybe, Russia might feel a little less twitchy, if the US wasn’t so intent on placing an untold number missile systems right on its doorstep.

    Anyway, best of luck with your efforts at disarming Russia, you’re certainly going to need it.

  269. Herald says:
    @foolisholdman

    And if it took out only Washington and Langley?

    If only!

  270. @peterAUS

    Definitely … an armed nation where everyone is a soldier for life, or for a greater part of it. Hmm, let me think … I better start praising the Swiss in this regard so as not to arouse the hecklers in the pub. Still a problem arises when that nation is composed of rival ethnicities, and the Swiss also settled that fairly well as far as the European ethnic groups that make up their nation go. But those importing other races and religions and letting them procreate at insane rates that threaten the future sociopolitical domination of the locals- they could end up having a problem any way you turn it.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  271. @Anon

    Maybe the British will one day give up the Falklands because they are too far away, and they may even end up losing Scotland and Northern Ireland the way things are going, but I still think the Argentine claim to those islands is one of the more ridiculous ones. Greece isn’t prepared to give up some of its islands which are only a few miles away from the Turkish coast and yet Argentina wants those islands that are hundreds of kilometers outside its territorial waters. And the Turks owned those Greek islands for far longer than Argentina ever controlled the Falkland islands. And if the US can claim Hawaii and Guam sure the UK can claim the Falklands.

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @J. Gutierrez
  272. Che Guava says:

    None of it matters, where it counts, Trump willl always kowtow to the will of the imbecilic President Kushner, and his imbecilic daughter that Trump was stupid enough tn encourage to marry his boss to be.

    Ii wonder how dimwit Jared is doing at unloading 666 5th Ave.?

  273. peterAUS says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Definitely … an armed nation where everyone is a soldier for life, or for a greater part of it.

    Yes. And where politicians, all of them, served. Where top politicians had senior leadership positions, and retained strong links, with armed forces. Which means they do understand all that well. Have friends and relatives there. Which makes them having “skin in the game”. Or, just can’t order them to get killed or mutilated with ease.
    Also, where voting populace does understand the war. On top of it where it also has “skin in the game”, meaning they, themselves, or people they love and/or care for, can be ordered into some war where they can be killed or mutilated.
    Hard to have an imperial army filled with conscripts/reservists. Sounds familiar?
    Funny, a?

    …I better start praising the Swiss ..

    No…no….IDF is perfect. Israelis are the model. Jews ARE smart people.
    White ethnostate. Haha….exactly as Jewish ethnostate. “Goose..gander” thing.
    “What is good for Jews”? “What is good for Whites”?

    A secession, anywhere where globo-homo world is being imposed on, will do well to take IDF as an example. Europe and North America in particular.Hehe…if it’s done well in either place we’ll here, as always, just follow the top dog.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  274. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Commentator Mike

    Well so far for so good for angloamerican onphalocentrism .

    The english will end up giving back the Malvinas to Argentina . The Malvinas were spanish , the argentinians inherited them from Spain . Even the UN asked for decolonization .

    The ridiculous english pirates will end up giving back Gibraltar to Spain , and the Malvinas to Argentina . The british Empire is over . They will end up realizing that they should be real
    friends of hispanic nations .

    I don`t care for the greeks , it is up to them to kiss Merkel`s ass . As I don`t care for for other islands occupied by the US like Hawaii and Guam .

    The US ocupied militarily other Spanish islands , 120 years ago , in the Spanish- American war of 1898 : Cuba , Puerto Rico and the Filipines , but no spanish claims , our spanish Empire is over , we accept it , not like the ridiculous english that pretend that as long as they occupy the rock of Gibraltar and the Malvinas they can still believe that they have the british Empire , a psychoanalytic case .

    Free Cuba , Puerto Rico and the Filipinas can defend themselves , from whatever they deem appropiate , they have all the sympathies from Spain since they were part of Spain for nearly four centuries , but no claims from Spain .

    The cubans are defending themselves heroically from the yankees , just at the doors of the Empire , the Filipinos can do whatever they want , and the Puerto Ricans too . The US Empire is still powerful but it is declining rapidly fascinated by its onphalocentrism , they can not even re-invade small Cuba .

    Good luck to all Empires , ex Empires , and wanna be Empires . Tempus fugit , and Empires fugit as well .

  275. DanielArg says:

    I think everyone is forgetting the number of chinese in america
    How many of them migth be sleeping operatives? You can’t pull a concentration camp move like with the japs in ww2
    A small group of operatives could render the power grid unusable
    How long would the war last if the millenials can’t power the iphones?

  276. Logan says:

    I must admit when I saw the headline I thought it would be about something else.

    “Unused militaries” would be a great topic. For instance, what exactly is the point of Canada having a military at all? If the US decided to invade, the Canadian military would simply be killed quickly, and the US certainly isn’t going to let anybody else invade Canada.

    Or Brazil having jet fighters. What exactly are they going to use them for? The only Latin American country I can remember actually using jet fighters was Argentina tried to fight the Brits and that didn’t work out too well for them.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  277. @FB

    Brilliant, sobering statement.

  278. @Johnny Walker Read

    Thank you. Ford: World’s most expensive window dressing.

    Will see how they fare when the DF-17 comes to visit.

    Seems carriers have been keeping their distance from Iranian shores lately.
    Wonder why?

    Believe Britain said they want to contain the Iranians with drones.
    Their ships are no longer certified for the bathtub.

    Are we investing $700b+ annually for a Potemkin military?
    Time for a new accountant.
    But I almost forgot: all the records were turned to dust in Bldg 7.

  279. Gene Su says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    I read several articles stating that something like 70 to 80 percent of all fighting age men are ineligible for combat for the following reasons.

    1. Low education (or is it low intelligence?).
    You can’t be in the military if you can’t read a manual or add one plus one. Steve Sailer has written on this.
    2. Obesity
    A lot of American kids are now really fat. They can’t do a single pull-up.
    3. Criminal records
    They say they use to gang press juvenile delinquints into joining the military. I guess now that we give our soldiers automatic rifles that can mow down crowds of people, we’re no longer enthusiastic about recruiting potential thugs.
    4. Psycotropic medicines
    A lot of people believe that these medicines have a role in the mass shootings that have occured over the years. The pharmaceutical conglomarates deny it but obviously, the military isn’t buying it.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  280. @Logan

    Logan,

    That’s the same as saying I don’t need to buy a gun because I live next to Al Capone! You should be fine until Al Capone’s moonshine gets confiscated and he needs to ask his neighbors for protection money. Or better yet send his goons to collect, by that time owning a gun becomes obsolete.

    The AngloZionists have an alliance with their fellow Anglo Saxon British Empire Territories (US, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand). The Queen of England Rules over all of you not the Jews! But you people actually think you mean something to them, The City of London only cares about printing paper money (Debt) and trading it for Gold (wealth). They skim so much money their off shore banks in the British Islands now provide almost all the money they loan to countries. That system was created to make up for the money they would no longer get from their colonies once they declared independence.

    When the Colonies began to fight for control of their own country, the British were building Shell companies to hide the money they stole. Then they discovered that they could use that stolen money to make loans to their former Colonies turned Independent Countries. They made more money on predatory lending than they did when they ruled over the country without the cost and responsibility they previously had governing those territories! The birth of Tax Shelters was now the new game in town and every corporation wanted a place to hide the money that was skimmed, bribed, laundered, scammed or robbed from their country’s citizen’s.

    Ask yourself why are the countries with the most pedophile cases filed and reported have not produced a single conviction, not one person? Instead they cover it up or claim it’s a conspiracy theory. England, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have had government officials accused of running, participating and organizing world wide sex trafficking and child pornography rings.

    That is not a coincidence people, why is Jeff Stryker and so many old men living in Thailand? How many of want to make a bet that 95% are white? How many of you want to bet that 100% are from the countries I listed? Even if I’m off on those percentages I’m on the Fucking Money on who, what and where they come from! The Anglo Saxon British Empire Controlled Countries.

    The Propaganda Machine is a well oiled, sophisticated, complex, scientific, evil concoction designed by the Round Table Groups to rule the world under the Cecil Rhodes vision of Anglo Saxon Supremacy.

    The Bible states that in the End Times God will bring everything out in the open for his people to see! Like I have said many times I’m not racist against whites, I am white, Gutierrez comes from German origins, I’m W European Spanish 6’1 200 lbs, Green Eyes and pale white skin in the winter beautiful dark tan in the summer.

    I believe the Anglo Saxons will betray their Jewish Compadres in the End Times. Anglo Saxons are a different breed, asked the Germans that survive 55 gallon Gasoline bombs dropped on their civilian population. You would never catch me defending the Anglo white race, someone responded to one of my past comments by typing one or two words that I had never heard before. He said Europe uses that/those words when talking about the Anglo British and it has something to do with Treasonist! I know one of you guys know what I mean, share with the rest!!!

    • Replies: @Logan
  281. @Commentator Mike

    Commentator Mike,

    That will never happen brother! The British need it as their stepping stone for filing claims on Antartica!!!Israel is all over Patagonia buying up properties. Antartica has vast untouched minerals, fresh water and it’s the only place, wait it’s the best place to be when nuclear war brakes out! That is what Robjil shared with me and I believe him! The filing claims part is my thought and makes perfect sense with Israel and UK buying as much of Argentina as possible. City of London and the Rothsheild Zionists buying for pennies on the dollar! It gives us a clear picture that they will destroy a people by crashing their economy so they can buy cheap. The same way they buy American Companies when they manipulate the stock.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
  282. anon[153] • Disclaimer says:

    “I doubt the author knows the inventory status of the DOD and the inventory of spare tracks for the nations armored vehicles. Its clear the author knows nothing more than what is publicly available.”

    I’d rather not bet my country on a conspiracy theory that the government is secretly competent after all. Besides, there’s no reason for the military to keep spare parts a secret in the first place. There is value in showing your strength to potential enemies. If we had more than we’re letting on, everyone would likely know it. More likely, the Pentagon and civilian oversight are under-prepared for a major war against China or Russia because they lack the foresight and intelligence to plan it out realistically or to do anything about it policy-wise even if they could. The military can’t order congress to be less stupid and less corrupt.

    “The US still has the ability to rapidly mobilize industry as it did in WWII.”

    What industry? The entire country has exactly one tank factory. Nearly all the chemicals used in its missiles are imported from overseas; some components come exclusively from China, with few or no ready replacements available.

    “Stealth aircraft airframes can be repaired using standard composite technology quickly but would suffer from a larger radar signature.”

    Stealth aircraft are notoriously difficult to maintain. They also have much lower sortie rates. And even if we employed a hot fix, increasing the radar signature of the aircraft would greatly endanger aircraft like the F-35. Can the US afford to lose a huge number of pilots in a conflict with China?

    “The author fails to give credit to the ingenuity of the maintainers and mechanics that will always rise up and solve difficult to fix hardware situations.”

    I think that’s wishful thinking. China and Russia have lots of ingenious people, too. Besides, the air force is having trouble in that department: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-the-1-45-trillion-f-35-still-cant-get-off-the-ground/

    “The F35 has come a long way from the early doom and gloom reports.”

    That remains to be seen. IMHO, the aircraft is fundamentally unsuited for battle against the Chinese with its requirement for external fuel tanks and limited payload (among other things). Also, the navy projects it won’t even be able to land on aircraft carriers until ~2027.

    “If the US returned to conscription there are 20 million illegals that would volunteer if that gave them citizenship.”

    That sounds pretty desperate. How well do you suppose these illegals will fare against the Chinese in battle? And that assumes they’d be willing to fight in the first place. I mean, why would they when they’re just going to get citizenship from Elizabeth Warren anyway for free? You’re probably looking at massive unrest and civil disobedience if you try to conscript that demographic; you’d probably get less than 250,000 if it were voluntary. I also think the American public would object to giving citizenship to 20 million future democrats. Doing so would lower morale and cause the public to abandon the war effort quickly.

    “If a Chinese nuke took out New York city the entire US population would be demanding retaliation. Americans may be liberal but they are still patriotic.”

    1. Which is why they’re not going to do that. Anyone who thinks the Chinese would blindly nuke NYC at the start of a conflict hasn’t seriously given thought to how such a conflict would realistically play out.

    2. No, they’re not. Polls show declining patriotism levels nearly across the board. That’s a trend I don’t see reversing, especially in this climate where the left acts the way it does. Example: San Francisco just labeled the NRA a terrorist group. That’s just one of many insane things they’ve done in recent years (San Jose erecting pride flags around a Chick-fil-a, Beto saying he’d send the police door-to-door to steal people’s guns, Hollywood actors saying their political enemies should be blacklisted, etc etc etc). The radical left is going way off the cliff.

    Also, I can’t imagine red states ever again rallying to their defense as they did after 9/11 in this climate and after all the heated rhetoric from the democrats in their debates so far. Blue state neoliberals will be on their own in a major war with China. Don’t expect white male republicans to kill themselves for the likes of Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, or Robert O’Rourke. I predict the public will almost immediately demand peace after a major conflict starts with China. It may take longer with Russia after all the propaganda, but if Moscow scores a major victory such as sinking an aircraft carrier, the public will demand peace with them, too. How many white men want to die for a country that hates them, that was stolen from them?

    • Agree: Counterinsurgency
  283. anon[231] • Disclaimer says:

    “I wouldn’t hold your breath about Blue States not fighting back. A good part of the Northeast is just about as well armed as any Red State. We just don’t make such a big deal about weaponry. And the Northeastern states were the first to talk secession (circa 1819) before it became popular with the South.”

    None of that is relevant to the scenario I advanced. And yes, I hope you do fight back. You deserve to be humbled.

    “We just don’t make such a big deal about weaponry.”

    Because it’s heavily restricted.

    “Also, a number of Blue States are already implementing nullification of federal edicts (ie: sanctuary cities) whereas this does not seem to be a thing with Southern States. So in this regard, it is the Blue States that have already begun the preliminary symptoms that could lead to a major secession event down the road.”

    I hope so. Red states refine the great majority of your gasoline. It sickens me to think we aren’t selling to the Chinese, instead.

    “The problem with the Red States is that the majority of their politicians are simply to stupid to figure out which way is up and do everything in their power to disenfranchise their own constituencies while the “good ol’ boys” vote for idiots like Trump because he talks like them.”

    That’s an infantile assertion made by a smug, sanctimonious Northerner. You’re a credit to your kind. The problem with Blue States is that they cause problems they then blame on others. You rail against climate change after having imported tens of millions of foreigners who have only increased the world’s carbon footprint. You protested Iraq but demand war with Russia. You laugh at Donald Trump but then field this embarrassing list of losers to replace him. You complain about racism but then hypocritically flee diversifying neighborhoods.

    “I am not saying we in the northeast have political brilliance in abundance but the Northeastern States, or Blue States in general, do a lot more towards taking care of their own than the Southern States.”

    You take care of your own by flooding small towns with Somalis while hiding behind gated communities.

    “Despite the advantages or disadvantages of either region, I believe you will find many in the Northeast fighting against a martial takeover by the federal government just as much as a similar reaction will occur in the South.”

    I have a feeling not, if done correctly. Your people value creature comforts and have never known a life without them. You’ll break if we turn off the electricity for a while or blockade major urban areas for a few weeks. Polls show your people aren’t willing to fight and die for your own country. Besides, I look forward to crushing your resistance … and to breaking your smugness before my will. I hope you do resist.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  284. anon[231] • Disclaimer says:

    “I wouldn’t hold your breath about Blue States not fighting back. A good part of the Northeast is just about as well armed as any Red State.”

    New England has one of the lowest gun ownership rates in the country, excepting only Vermont and Maine.

    “Sanctuary cities”

    After we defeat your people in battle and win our freedom, our highest priority should be to flood Blue States with about 100 million African immigrants and then rub it in your faces as we force you to stay in those areas.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  285. @peterAUS

    Peter,

    I don’t know if you have read this book review yet:

    https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2019/09/08/a-race-war-prophecy/

    although a few other commenters have already mentioned it. The book author died of cancer and knowing he wouldn’t be around much longer didn’t care about being accused of flouting PC and hate laws or for encouraging violence.

    The author seems convinced of his predictions but I still don’t know if some people aren’t wasting their time with this as the west may just slide into becoming another Brazil or South Africa with hardly any resistance from the whites. Isn’t it better for whites to try to earn as much as they possibly can so they can afford the gated communities, private clubs, and the security as the social situation deteriorates? Yeah I know for many who are not blind to what is going on it may be difficult to fit into this new arrangement.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  286. @Sean

    The mass of human beings are going to become economically and militarily redundant

    Funny thing is, the mass of human beings became economically and militarily redundant quite some time ago in the US.

    They became militarily redundant after the Vietnam War when mass armies were shown to be politically impossible in the West, and were redundant in central wars [1] after the first nuclear weapons were used.

    They became economically redundant in the US and the West after governments discovered that groups of foreigners inside their borders could become members of a coalition that voted for them. These governments show pretty strongly that they care about voting blocks a lot more than they do about economic productivity. Economic productivity is still important, but not in politics [2].

    So what is AI going to do? First, not all that much. Contemporary AI is quite limited — it’s essentially neural networks run on fast hardware [3]. You don’t really need AI to run a factory — the real problem is getting enough valid data quickly, which is why 5th Generation wireless is primarily adopted at industrial sites now. What it will do is generate yet further political disregard for productivity, attempts to import more economically unproductive foreigners, and increase in the oppression of the countryside (where the manufacturing / assembly plants reside) by urban areas.

    BTW, another funny thing is that it was the left wing US government that put in the Interstates, and the interstates (with considerable help from containerization) killed off the urban areas where the left wing lives. Sic friat crustulum, here meaning “you can’t predict all or even most of the consequences of what you do”.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] Herman Kahn’s terminology. “central war” is wars in which the existence of all contending governments is at stake: WW II was the most recent big central war. Central wars were rendered impractical by nuclear weapons. Contrast with the European royal wars of the AD 1700s, waged for trade advantages and dynastic reasons.

    2] In fact, the “global warming” propaganda line says that economic productivity is harmful to “the Earth”.

    3] Neural nets don’t have a well understood structure. The require many cases for training, and each application requires “tuning”, changing several parameters, of the neural net to facilitate learning. That’s a far cry from HAL or from Robbie the Robot, and ever farther from the Graphically Omniscient Device that the media claims AI is.
    Still — some areas will be hit hard. Long distance truck driving, for example. Still, there has been a “crisis” for years in finding responsible and non-criminal drivers who are willing to work for not much money. And it wouldn’t be too hard to put together a large raid on fully automated trucks, so guarding the trucks is going to be necessary.

  287. @J. Gutierrez

    But, you people think we’re animals and rather handle it the civilized way. Fake a hanging, send them to Israel, Burn the evidence and pretend it never happened!

    Really don’t like to say this, but you’re just about right there. There is very little connection between American society and that of Mexico, which leads to exactly this conclusion. Note, however, that you have a mirror of this — you don’t really understand the US either, and are reduced to cursing it. And your family is Norteño also, with generations to acclimate and demonstrated independence in comparison to the south of Mexico.

    I, myself, have cursed many situations and events, and it is my opinion that cursing does not demonstrate a deep understanding of what it is directed at. Cursing is apparently descended from the primate predator call (same structure in the brain), and has the effect of telling people that there is something dangerous in the area (even if it’s only the person doing the swearing).

    It’s a major problem, since the two societies have intermingled strongly since the era of the Texas Republic and still seem to touch at no point. I’ve no solution or suggestions, and not from lack of interest, either.

    Agree, though, that the US media is not only propaganda, but clumsy and deadly propaganda. They have, with their false reporting, killed many people (see video “Hamburger Hill”, by survivors, for what some of the survivors thought). Liars haven’t fared very will in the West (including Spain) when they were found out.

    Counterinsurgency

  288. @FB

    Disagree on one point:

    No major power is going to attack the US openly for the same reason that nobody shoots at Santa Claus and the mailman who delivered welfare checks was left alone in Black communities. If the US goes down, so does global trade.

    The corollary to this is that, once the trade routes go down, the US will be attacked in the ensuring confusion and regional conflicts. The attacks will at first be deniable attacks on urban areas, possibly in attempts to influence US foreign policy, and may escalate from there. IMHO, of course.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Disagree: Biff
    • Replies: @Biff
  289. J. Gutierrez
    trump has NEVER stated or implied that everyone south of the Rio Bravo are rapists, drug dealers or murderers.

  290. @Libertt Mike

    Hmm, so it is “novel” to call a President that packs every rally with thousands of people with thousands more outside trying to get in?

    You are obviously sick (TDS).

    And you obviously have a novel conception of novel.

  291. @TJM

    A cockatoo is all flash and no smarts. Therefore, cockatoo is NOT an accurate or a clever description of Trump. It is instead a cheap shot coming from an ignorant fool.

    Trump is close to JFK in many ways.

    And if you support Trump solely because you hated Hillary, you’ve missed why many voted for him.

    He was and is a refreshing breath of fresh air, a counter to the loons in DC, a plain speaking counter to the PC hysteria.

    Hillary was and is an asshole. As are Warren, Harris, Beta, Booker et al.

    People who think assholes should be elected President are morons. I didn’t vote for Trump because Hillary. You shouldn’t’ve either.

  292. @Hank Yobo

    Hank Yobo,

    Would you please provide the name of the “Aircraft carrier” sunk by the Argentines.

    I’m usually very good remembering events and I have been trying to find something that supports my comment, but I haven’t been able to find it, so I take back my comment about the Carrier. I did find a lot of articles that reported that the event actually happened, but nothing solid like pictures and news articles.

    Hank I think about that event and memories pop up of a Carrier being hit, on fire and having to return to England in order to save it. I have memories of tug boats meeting it in open seas, securing it and keeping it from sinking. Hank I also remember the ship reaching England and secretly being taken to a Ship Yard where Another Ship like the Carrier was being built.

    The salvageable parts taken from the damaged vessel and used to finish the construction on the Carrier being built including renaming it. Fuck, it’s probably something having to do with the Mandela Effect, who knows. Jajaja maybe another commentator remembers something like that, too.

    The Argentines couldn’t win even though the combat zones were only a few hundred miles off their coastline, a tremendous home field advantage.

    I disagree with you on this comment because I did find articles that suggested the opposite. The writers clearly felt the UK put pressure on France not to deliver any Jets or missiles that could be used against them. The article reported that Argentina paid for 10 jets and 10 missiles before the war started and France had delivered only 5 and 5. With pressure from the UK they held back the delivery and stopped training the technicians on how to install, program and operate the guiding systems.

    The technicians figured out how to install them on their own and only needed the arming codes. When France refused to give them the codes they were forced to hack away until they figured out the codes. I few articles claimed that Argentina would have destroyed the remaining ships if they had been given those weapons, and won the war.

    Don’t get me wrong Hank…the British are the world’s most lethal killing machine, I’m not taking that away from them by believing the writers, but 5 missiles did a lot of damage to the Royal Navy.
    The Argentine Fighter Pilots were fucking amazing delivering their ordinances on the target! The British Military Officers in charge of the war constantly talked about the pilot’s flying skills with out dated equipment that they had to make work.

    The one thing that left a lasting impression on me about that war was listening to the English Soldiers as they were interviewed. They did not degrade, talk hateful or demonize the Argentine Soldier. On the contrary I saw and heard them describe battle situations where the fierce fighting made them respect their opponents fighting skills.

    I know there have been reports of English Soldiers committing murder on some of the prisoners, because they bombed their buddies on a landing ship burning a lot of them alive. Some soldiers were reported to have taken revenge on soldiers surrendering using bayonets, but the guys that were interview were professional and didn’t give me the impression they would do shit like that. I heard it was the Elite Commando Units that were committing those murders after a group of their buddies were ambushed! But I may be wrong, again.

    Do you live in the UK? Do you like having a Queen? Why are so many British Politicians that are accused of having sex with minors protected?

    That shit has been going on since before the Krays!

  293. @JMcG

    ” I’m just imagining the heads of the UAW and the Machinists getting together over lobster to discuss which fifth generation fighter they’d like to build next.”

    Now that’s a great picture. I’m still working on composing the Dumbest Comment Of All Time, so I’d better get back to it. 😉

  294. Fred,

    The Russians, Chinese, or Iranians will have all the same problems with their soldiers and officers as we do. And worse. It hasn’t been so long since the Iranians used waves of children stomping their way toward the Iraqis to clear mine fields.

    The Grate Deign

  295. @J. Gutierrez

    J.G.,

    Soon you will have no strategic oil and that’s why the US want Venezuela’s oil

    That is apparently not true – the US has the biggest oil reserves, far more than anyone else. Read this:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/whatever-happened-to-peak-oil-major-new-shale-oil-and-gas-discovery/5664382

    The author used to think that all those Middle East wars were for oil but maybe not wholly, maybe they were more wars for Israel, although he doesn’t mention that.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  296. @J. Gutierrez

    J.G.,

    Although it was more complicated and sure much was at stake, let’s agree that both General Galtieri and Margaret Thatcher were enemies of their own people and obviously that war served each of them for their own ends, or at least they thought it would. If anything that war brought down the Argentinian junta and helped to restore democracy to the country, but unfortunately it bolstered Thatcher’s popularity.

    • Agree: J. Gutierrez
  297. @restless94110

    JFK, dyed in the wool globalist, was the first President to call for total dis-armament of the American people. Look’s like Trump is following in his foot steps, just as you pointed out.

  298. @Johnny Walker Read

    All you need do this day in age is google Public Law 87-297

  299. Biff says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    If the US goes down, so does global trade.

    The people who manufacture things probably don’t agree.

  300. @Che Guava

    Maybe it was the greatest tonnage sunk in a battle. The Kamikazes were by no means going to turn the sea war around. I’d guess the Americans had already improved tactics against the “Devine Wind” before it was all over anyway.

    As to the war in general, I don’t know enough to argue over whether the US was wrong to have economically tried to box in Japan, causing them to have no recourse but start the war, as some have said. I do know that once war has been started, there’s no arguing against just plain winning. The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki (the latter only chosen because the 1st target was socked in) saved an estimated 1/2 million American lives and probably many more than that of Japanese, as the other option was an invasion of the Japanese mainland.

    The Japs, BTW, were very cruel to their prisoners (the Bataan death march was just the beginning – they did horrific medical experiments, etc.!) It was nothing like the way the Americans treated German prisoners and vice versa. Once the Pacific War started, I can not blame our country in any way for ending it this way.

    As for Dresden and the 1,000 bomber raids in Europe, I would agree that this was over-the-top killing of civilians. BTW, B-29’s didn’t do missions over Europe. They were used for their long-range in the Pacific, and only near the end of the war. It was one hell of a plane for its time!

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @bluedog
  301. @J. Gutierrez

    Well, I’m glad I accidentally helped you think through your situation, Mr. Gutierrez. As to my thing about California, etc., that was my failed attempt at a joke, that those States are already a de-facto part of Mexico. Sorry for the confusion and also the very late reply.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  302. @J. Gutierrez

    As to your new loyalty, I’ll just say this in defense of mine. You can blame this and that culture for invading this other and so on throughout history and find pretty much no people (as a group) blameless.

    The Western European, and more specifically, the peoples of the British Isles, hence early America too, have one major thing going for them. They have a 1,000 year history of understanding of rights of men and property that most others never got a clue on. They have great skills in organization, whether for good or ill sometimes.

    None of this stuff would exist in Latin America and the rest of the world either, if they didn’t take from these ideas of the British. I doubt Latin America would be organized much better than the way it was just after Pizarro and Cortez’s time, had they not borrowed from the British/Western Euro. culture. It’d be a bad thing if the people at the roots of this are lost to time.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  303. @J. Gutierrez

    One more thing: Your part of Texas and the parts of northern Mexico you write of would have been in bad, bad shape, if it had not been for the Anglos of the Republic of Texas and later the State of Texas. I’m talking about the Comanche Indians. As late as the mid-1800’s these Indians ruled the plains of Texas, but also raided way down into Mexico.

    A really great read called Empire of the Summer Moon is about this tribe of excellent horsemen whose (the men) purpose in life was war – no matter the Americans, the Mexicans, or other Indians. Their reign of savagery was ended due in large part to the Texas Rangers and a Yankee named Sam Colt. Peak Stupidity has a long review of that book – see Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. The book is by no means one-sided either.

  304. bluedog says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    For God sake don’t you ever read any history or do you simply make it up as you go along,Japan had tried to make arrangment’s thru the Swiss for a surrender on a number of occasions,no lives would have been lost trying to take Japan, for it must of dawned on you (or should have if you ever looked at a map of the world), but Japan is an island surrounded by American warships,nothing gets in and nothing out,and as for those “horrific medical experiments” we brought those records/programs and those running them back to the good ole U.S..A. so they could run their programs over here, along with certain member of the Germany’s secret police and spy organization.Now go beat your chest some more about how wonderful the U.S. is in its wars, but don’t forget those half million German prisoners that Ike starved to death by with holding food and medical supplies.!! !!!

    • Agree: Pat Kittle
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  305. Bunch of canned basic bitch conservative talking points from Fred Reed, as always. The degree to which this guy prefers to debitate the standard conservatard doomsayer pablum over anything remotely resembling objectivity would make him unsuitable for a $0.07 per word content writer position, let alone serious journalism.

    Hell, military history and technology are some of my areas of interest, I come from a more or less military family, with a mother working as an aerospace engineer (teh heh heh, let’s hear it!) and subscriptions to most publications in the field since I was ten. I don’t know where even to begin addressing his stuff…

    First, I wouldn’t be overall so pessimistic about the prospects of the US Armed Forces against a near-peer adversary (as far as those actually exist). The American Military was in a shape far worse back in 1939 as opposed to its competitors than it is today, and the US still managed to remedy that.

    The 1991 Gulf War was a great trial for the USAF and Marines, which they passed successfully for the most part, against an enemy with far better weapons than 3rd world peasants. Speaking of weapons, why is the availability of GAU-8 ammunition in any way relevant? The A-10 is basically unusable in anything else than a low intensity conflict against goat-lovers wearing sandals and it’s too expensive to really justify its use even then (just send a Super Tucano ffs). But I guess conservatards simply get their panties wet for the A-10, for some reason.

    Yeah, the F-35’s availability is (currently) extremely poor, but the US will still have a large enough 4th gen fighter fleet for the next 2-3 decades. The F-15E is scheduled to retire sometime in the 2040s and the last F-16 Block 70 with a frame life of around 40 years just left the LM factory floor.

    And US fighters are maintenance-intensive opposed to what!? Sure, the Russian fighters can take off of poorer condition runways, but in every other respect they actually fall short of US models. They generally waste more fuel and need more spare parts per flight hour. I honestly don’t know how the Russians managed the superb sortie rates they got in Syria, since the only significant air force with a historically better track record in this regard than the USAF is the AdA.

    And yes, modern warships are basically glass cannons, but the US isn’t somehow alone in this regard and advocating for the “return of honest to goodness armored battleships” in today’s context basically makes you an ignorant moron.

    Getting to the US forces in Afghanistan, it’s not like Americans were using F-22s to take potshots at the Taliban. The basic weapons used by both sides were more or less the same, and American soldiers still enjoyed a significant exchange ration.

    • Disagree: Biff
  306. @bluedog

    If you didn’t spend all your life on-line, Bluedog, you might actually know a thing or to. They’re called “books” and they got ’em in those “libraries”. Or, are you already at the library to cool off and take a shower in the bathroom?

  307. @Johnny Walker Read

    I don’t care what JFK called for. Calling for something is a long, long way away from getting it done. JFK would not have succeeded any more than anyone today will succeed.

    Trump throws a lot of stuff out there. To check out the reaction, to get feedback. Calling for anything? Who cares?

    As for JFK being a globalist, dyed in the wool? You couldn’t possibly know that. In fact, the opposite is most likely true.

    What all these hysterical people (like you) are screaming about? The 2nd Amendment is clear. Shall not infringe on the God-given right to bear arms.

    Fools can pass laws. Then laws are struck down.

    It takes time, but that’s the way the republic works. Stop with the sky is falling bullshit.

    • Replies: @Johnny Walker Read
  308. @Che Guava

    Sorry, Mr. Guava, I didn’t have time to address the 1st 1/2 of your comment till now.

    Here’s # 5: Mr. Reed continually denigrates the good people at VDare.com, other organizations and anyone (incl. commenters) who are actually trying to work to solve the problems … the very same problems that Reed either complains about, tells us we Americans are all idiots for causing, or tells us we should just live with as there’s nothing we can do about them.

    It’s one thing to point out problems and not do anything. That’s about normal. To badmouth the people that DO care and are working for change is just being an asshole. This week was a refreshing change.

  309. peterAUS says:
    @Commentator Mike

    …There is, however, a serious analytical mistake made by numerous anti-Semitic writers, especially Kevin B. MacDonald — that of focusing on the psychological traits of Jewish intellectual movements that are in favour of cosmopolitanism, and of confusing these traits with the behavioural and mental patterns of the Jewish ethnicity…

    Hehehe……….

    As for

    …. How the War Shall Unfold — Possibilities and Predictions…

    From the review that part’s weak. I’ll try to get the book and take a better look, but, having a “feel” for the author I doubt anything of value will be there.

    ….becoming another Brazil or South Africa with hardly any resistance from the whites.,,,

    Most likely. Around 80% IMHO. In West Europe.
    There is a remaining 20%, though.
    As for East Europe, it’s 40/60.

    Isn’t it better for whites to try to earn as much as they possibly can so they can afford the gated communities, private clubs, and the security as the social situation deteriorates?

    Don’t think so. Free will.
    While the high classes can, should, and will actually do that, the layers of Whites below that level can’t do it even if they want.
    Those will need to do something else.

  310. Ahoy says:

    Use it or loose it, people say down in Main Street. Here we have something else happening. They changed the army from that of a trained in hardship soldier to one that doned red high heels.

    Americans have no idea what price will pay for their extreme sex culture and bountless FEMINISM.

    This Americanism had some limited success in Europe and already is falling back. Italy, Hungary, Poland. It has not touched Russia, China, Iran.

    Since they changed the army they must now change the war to the new army’s measure. Will the enemy agree??

  311. @anon

    After we defeat your people in battle and win our freedom, our highest priority should be to flood Blue States with about 100 million African immigrants and then rub it in your faces as we force you to stay in those areas.

    My, my. Anybody want a more explicit statement?

    Counterinsurgency

  312. @anon

    Northeast is New Amsterdam and Yankeedom in Woodward’s sociological analysis [1]

    So:

    “Despite the advantages or disadvantages of either region, I believe you will find many in the Northeast fighting against a martial takeover by the federal government just as much as a similar reaction will occur in the South.”

    is a bit naive. the Northeast _is_ the media, the universities, corporate management, and the federal government. That’s why it and its colony California can defy the Feds with no repercussions. Political theater, and the suggestion of revolt against themselves is smoke, intended to obscure the metaphorical battlefield.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] Woodward.
    _American nations_
    Map: http://www.colinwoodard.com/files/ColinWoodard_AmericanNations_map.pdf
    Traces politically unified areas in the US back through history to founding. These regions still have different politics today that resemble their politics throughout American history.

  313. mushroom says:

    remember uss liberty.

  314. @Gene Su

    They say they use to gang press juvenile delinquents into joining the military. I guess now that we give our soldiers automatic rifles that can mow down crowds of people, we’re no longer enthusiastic about recruiting potential thugs

    That’s been tried quite a few times. The unit ordinarily yells the battle cry “I surrender” when engaging the enemy. Things like “barrage battalions” that shoot deserters only work when most of the unit is not composed of deserters.

    Counterinsurgency

  315. Logan says:
    @J. Gutierrez

    Yeah, it is like saying there’s not a lot of point to my buying a gun if I live next to Al Capone.

    Nobody is going to rob Al’s neighbor. And if I get sideways with Al and his machine, my gun isn’t going to save my life.

    Same as those who think they can protect themselves by arming against the predatory state and its attempts to disarm the populace.

    Let’s assume they send four cops to confiscate your guns. You are a mighty warrior and defeat them.

    Is that the end of it? Of course not. They send 40 cops, and if you somehow mange to defeat them, they’ll call in a tank or helicopter gunship.

    Now there are perfectly legitimate scenarios by which armed civilians can destabilize or overthrow a massively armed state. But none of them consist of citizen A fighting and winning.

    He can of course “win” in the sense of his death becoming a symbol of defiance and rallying point. Except of course nobody will ever hear about him because our systems of communication have been taken over by those on the side of the state.

    Beyond that, I must admit your comment is pretty much a non sequitur.

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  316. Punisher says:
    @restless94110

    Restless94110 President Trump promised to build a wall, to bring jobs back to America. He has not. The economy is not doing so well. There are a lot of homeless and very poor Americans that have not been helped under President Trump. In fact America has not changed. He promised to make America great again and it is the same.

    • Replies: @restless94110
  317. RobRich says: • Website
    @Tom Welsh

    The President himself manned a cannon to no avail and had to be dragged away cursing lest he be captured, but the Hand of God stopped the British when 5 fingerlike tornados, freakishly rare in Washington DC, blocked and then repelled the British into retreat.

    The Hand of God. The words of the British troops.

    Shortly thereafter US libertarians came to the UK then the rest of Europe to agitate for the vote and call for conversion of the Empire into a commonwealth.

    Libertarians. To my mind the scalpel of God.

    • Replies: @Hank Yobo
  318. RobRich says: • Website
    @J. Gutierrez

    The biggest mistake here was the US did not accept as states the states then applying to join the US of today’s Norther Mexico, over 60% of the country to the border of Mexico City.

    The US was incorrectly worried about 1 MM harmless Mexican Indians then left to themselves in Reservations. They sure don’t teach that in the US OR Mexico.

    I learned about it while looking through old State Department archives when I worked there.

  319. Hank Yobo says:
    @RobRich

    Apparently God was thanked by the British officers before they dined on Madison’s “victory meal” prior to decamping from the burning city. They torched the public buildings and then left because they had accomplished their retaliatory mission, not because of the weather. By the way, whose side was God on in this war?

  320. @Punisher

    Hey buddy,

    Here’s the latest news flash: Trump was not elected King. He also was not elected Emperor.

    He also does not have a magic wand that he can just wave and say some magic words and everything is done.

    The United States is a republic. It has 3 branches of Federal government, then it has state governments, then it has city and county governments.

    Trump is the head administrator for the Federal government. He states his goals, gets elected, and then does his best to implement those goals that he stated (and other goals that come up after).

    If things aren’t getting done, what does Trump have to do with that? Blame the assholes in the judiciary who are acting like little kings. Blame the legislators who you elected who are putting roadblocks in the way. Blame the never Trumpers/open borders assholes who are in administrative positions all over the United States.

    When you are the head of something, you have to delegate tasks to others. Sometimes the people you delegate do a great job. And sometimes they do a poor job. And other times they do the opposite of what you told them to do.

    That is the nature of government. That is the nature of any business of more than 1 person.

    Saying Trump didn’t do this or didn’t do that? That is literally infantile. It means you do not understand American Government and it also means you don’t understand anything about Business Management.

    You would be on solid ground if you looked at Beto saying a year ago that Texans could keep their ARs, and then yesterday saying the government is going to take your ARs.

    That’s inconsistent. Trump has not been inconsistent. So rein yourself in a little, hoss.

    If someone below decks throws a wrench into the gears, don’t blame the captain.

    • Agree: Counterinsurgency
    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  321. @Achmed E. Newman

    Or, are you already at the library to cool off and take a shower in the bathroom

    When I occasionally stop by at the libraries in Toronto when I’m there, I see a boatload of vagrants idling inside the washrooms, or in the halls, just washing their trinkets and stinking the place up. It gets annoying sometimes because the smell can be really pungent too. Can’t believe the same stuff happens in America.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  322. @J. Gutierrez

    Apologies for the late reply here. I posted one last night (2019/09/13) but it somehow vanished into the bit bucket.

    Criminals, mostly drug gangs, tap remote pipelines, sometimes building pipelines of their own, to siphon hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil each year, said the Mexican oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex.

    Donald Schroeder, president of Houston-based Trammo Petroleum, is scheduled to be sentenced in December after pleading guilty in May. In a $2 million scheme, Schroeder bought stolen Mexican oil that had been brought across the border in trucks and barges and sold it to various U.S. refineries, which she did not identify, Herrera said. Trammo’s tiny firm profited by about $150,000 in the scheme, she said.

    But in Mexico, federal police commissioner Rodrigo Esparza said the Zetas, a fierce drug gang aligned with the Gulf cartel, used false import documents to smuggle at least $46 million worth of oil in tankers to unnamed U.S. refineries

    .

    So. Given that the 46 million dollars (not much by drug smuggling standards) actually proven in a court of law to have been stolen has to represent a very small part of the oil smuggling, the hundreds of millions of dollars seems likely. If the 46 million USD were a fifth of all oil smuggled, then total trade would be over 200 million USD over the same interval that Trammo Petrolium was buying smuggled oil. It seems unlikely (although physically possible) that Trammo Petroleum was only a fifth of the trade. (This assumes a mediocrity principle — if you stumble upon something it is most likely that it hasn’t just started or that it is just about to end).

    This is a fairly amazing sum. Oil just isn’t that valuable. At a hundred USD/barrel, that would be 0.46 million barrels even to cover Trammo Petroleum’s 46 million USD purchases. That isn’t just somebody carrying over some gas cans full of stolen gasoline to sell to his friends in the US. The US Border might just as well not be there when it comes to oil; the operation had to rely on a massive scale paperwork fraud.

    As far as it being the Zetas who tapped and sold the oil, who else has the organization, the imagination, and the controlled use of force to bring off something like that?

    Thanks for the article. It adds another stone to the wall of evidence that we’re living at the end of some sort of cycle — this is where something new has to be done, even if it’s just setting fire to the something old. And, remember, this is phenomenon is world wide.

    Counterinsurgency

  323. @J. Gutierrez

    La Quarta Transformacion

    I really hope this works out for you. Last time Mexico had a serious internal disagreement was back in the AD 1910-1920, and it was bad enough to leave a big notch in the Mexican population structure for the next several decades. As far as I can tell, Mexico ended up with a mildly left wing (Trotskyite “permanent revolution”) government, the PRI, that was eventually opposed by the PAN, which looks like a business reformist group. Last time I looked at Mexican government was decades ago, though, so I’m not sure what Mexico has now.
    And this is not really a request to discuss politics, which I understand can be a bit more hazardous in Mexico than even here in the US. Just a hope that things can be settled peacefully in Mexico, although in fact when the US suzerainty goes down, so does world trade, and that means everything goes down. So here’s to a soft landing, at least.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @JMcG
  324. @Achmed E. Newman

    My Brother I have to disagree with you. The first established University in the Americas was in Mexico (New Spain) The Spanish have books detailing every expedition, Sunken treasure ships have been found using those writings. Remember the Conquistadores were a Military force that had to account and explain everything they explored. In the US it was settlers that explored the country. There is hardly any writings about those experiences, maybe a diary here or there.

    Spain has countless of detailed documents written about the Americas before the British even settle the East Coast. The British were Pirates, they would invade Islands and tae what they wanted, the Spanish built cities and infrastructure to move trade.

    I has been very well documented that the German people were the most detailed and organized of the European countries. Those Spanish are a goth version of the Germans that invaded Spain during the Roman Empire. Spanish are a blend of Franco, German, Italian people. My last name has German origins Gunthier…

  325. @Achmed E. Newman

    No problem Mr. Newman…now that I now you have a sense of humor I will read your comments with that in mind..

  326. @Commentator Mike

    Commentator Mike,

    Big Difference between Mexican Oil, Venezuelan Oil and US Oil. Out of the 3 the US is the one that has zero Oil. And this is why I say it…Mexico owns and controls its oil, same as Venezuela…The US owns no oil and until recently controls none, the Big Oil companies do. Read my article again about the change in the law that prevented any US oil to be sold abroad. The US did not let the oil companies sell any of their own oil overseas until 2015 when they changed a law passed during the Arab Oil Embargo. Once the law was changed the Oil Companies took all the US strategic oil reserves and sold it all to China. They made a fucking killing!!!

  327. @Logan

    Logan my brother,

    I think you misunderstood me…I gave the Al Capone scenario as a metaphor to you saying Canada and Latin America waste their money on weapons when they have the US next door to protect them.

    The US has not protected Canada, Mexico or Latin America ever. On the contrary, the US has invaded Canada, Mexico and Latin America on numerous occasions. Just take Venezuela for example, I Venezuela was unarmed and Russia China to back them up, the US would have Venezuelan Oil in its refineries and American Corporations buying critical energy resources for pennies on the dollar. Water, Electric and Mineral state owned companies.

    I wasn’t trying to question any ones willingness to face the authorities and refuse to give up their weapons. I was saying that any country that depends on the US providing their protection is stupid to do so. You trust the US because you live there…I can’t feel the same way you do if I live in Latin America…

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  328. I have had the same question about John Bolton for 15 years:
    Why is he still alive?

  329. @Jaque

    If a Chinese nuke took out New York city the entire US population would be demanding retaliation.

    I wouldn’t.

    The average net taxpaying American pays a 4% rent on all income to NYC’s banks

  330. @restless94110

    It is very common for the long term middle management of a bureaucratic organization to simply “comply with but not obey” its own executive management. The executive management cycles in and out, comes from a different ethos, and uses a different dialect (“management speak”) that is, quite often, literally incomprehensible to the bulk of long term middle management (A: “Upper management says we have to take risks.” B: “What’s a ‘risk’?” A: “I don’t know. They never said.”). Middle management sees its role as preventing change so that the business (whatever it is) can continue without idiotic interruptions.

    Apparently long term upper management feels much the same toward the politicians. The organizational structure that encourages such feelings is certainly there [1]: since the Interstate Commerce Commission (1887) the US Congress has been writing vague statutes authorizing agencies to to pass laws that are called “regulations” and are not easily reviewed by Congress. The process has gone so far that several agencies have told Congress to pound sand when Congress asked for information.

    “Draining the Swamp” is an attempt to end that process of law writing devolution to independent government agencies. It appears to be very ambitious, but in fact the system has become impossible to sustain.
    DOJ tried a coup against a sitting President, and there is some reason to think that this wasn’t the first such attempt, that the FBI took out Nixon. [2], and there are rumors that the Fed is trying to take out Trump. The agencies are now thought to pose a threat to elected officials.
    Moreover, the physical condition of the US has deteriorated due to bad government. The health hazard in major cities is consequent to the “homeless crisis” , a consequence of shutting down mental health asylums _and_ selling apartment space to foreign speculators _and_ restricting new construction for “environmental concerns” (at the cost of human waste and typhus in the streets). It is clear that existing government (on all levels, from City to Federal) considers the “homeless crisis” no more than a way to give more tax money to urban areas whose sole source of income is from taxes on activities carried out in their hinterlands or foreign countries.
    Finally, with 23 trillion USD in debt and another financial failure quite likely on the way, the system is financially unstable also.

    The above suggest that “draining the swamp” isn’t quite as quixotic as one might thing, although also that it might be quite a bit more brutal than one might think. So Trump isn’t wasting his time and effort, nor are the rest of the reformers.
    But they aren’t going to succeed any time soon. Right now, the effort is to survive while establishing precedents that can later be expanded. To put it another way, the effort is to survive and establish the foundations upon which something at least different can be built after the current swamp (sorry, “wetlands with their own unique ecologies”) have been drained.
    As restless94110 says, saying that draining the swamp can be easy or quickly accomplished shows that the problem is not understood. It will be time consuming, agonizing, and brutal (because destruction is always brutal. Ever see a building implosion that was gentle and sensitive?)

    Counterinsurrgency

    1] Theodore J. Lowi.
    _The End of Liberalism_.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_Liberalism

    2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fbis-no-2-was-deep-throat-mark-felt-ends-30-year-mystery-of-the-posts-watergate-source/2012/06/04/gJQwseRIV_story.html

  331. Jazman says:
    @FB

    I could go through every point – but it would be like debating the professor who “proved” that bumble bees can’t fly. I spent a career flying 4th gen fighters – and currently instruct pilots flying 5th gen. Whats the basis of your “expertise”. Before you run down the F-22 perhaps you should speak to aviators who have actually flown against them.

    This is answer from F18 pilot any opinion on this

    • Replies: @FB
  332. Fearless Fred:

    The Terrorist Theocracy of Eretz Ysrael is our only real enemy, for all the reasons routinely enumerated right here at the Unz Report.

    Still can’t bring yourself to say that, can you?

  333. Gene Su says:

    I have a big question. Does anyone know the military rejection percentages based on race? Call me racist but I have a funny feeling that it is much bigger for blacks than it is for whites.

  334. @Miggle

    I remember a couple of years ago reading of a Russian submarine reporting from the Caribbean when no-one in the US military knew it was there.

    (Without looking it up) I seem to remember an undetected Chinese sub popping up in the middle of a US Navy carrier group.
    🙂

  335. @Achmed E. Newman

    Dude I was also very patriotic how we rebult Japan was extremely noble South Koreans were backwards peasants in 1950 but read about the Arab Christian’s in Iraq that were left to wolf’s that we did absolutely nothing to protect cuz PC in Fact the puppet government in Iraq(removed as soon as we left lol) made it ok to kill them then you got supplying ISIS and Al Qaeda in Syria what the did was to horrific to write about we allowed that Trump say ISIS members will be dumped in Europe was the final nail

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  336. @J. Gutierrez

    The US has not protected Canada, Mexico or Latin America ever.

    It’s not that bad. Mexico was successfully invaded by France during the US Civil War. Mexico got to find out first hand what the Monroe Doctrine had shielded it from, but could not during the US Civil War. And then the US Civil War ended. The US considered sending a force to Mexico against French forces, but decided not to. It relied on diplomatic pressure (“Soft Power”?)

    By 1867, Seward shifted American policy from thinly veiled sympathy to the republican government of Juárez to open threat of war to induce a French withdrawal. Seward had invoked the Monroe Doctrine and later stated in 1868, “The Monroe Doctrine, which eight years ago was merely a theory, is now an irreversible fact.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_intervention_in_Mexico

    Back in the 1800s, during the Mexican-American war [1] the US had brains enough to see that it could never rule Mexico, or, more accurately, that Mexicans would never adopt the US system of government, as it had a system of its own. The US conquered Mexico City and perhaps could have assumed France’s role in governing Mexico, but contented itself with annexing only sparsely populated areas that it believed it could populate.

    And now the pendulum swings back, and Mexico is doing the same thing — populating areas that the US citizenry are unable to populate. Funny how things go.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2%80%93American_War

    • Replies: @Logan
    , @J. Gutierrez
  337. @Counterinsurgency

    Have you heard or read about the “Spot Market” based in one of Europe’s port cities? I can’t remember the city’s name, Rotterdam but not certain, I have to check if I have the info in my files.

  338. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:

    Lucero Tena is mexican , the music spanish , that`s art and culture

  339. Che Guava says:

    Achmed,

    I am not stupid. I am aware of any of the several valid points you are making.

    However, quiz questions.

    Without looking it up, do you know the name nf the initial target on the Nagasaki atomic bombing? Without looking it up, I do. Don’t cheat, just the placename if you know it from memory, or no if not.

    Everything is very complex. The Showa emperor (Hirohito) was guilty of making agressive war.

    So was Franklin Delano Rosenfeldt. I was reading some new information tonight, to the effect that, as part of the Flyhng Tigers, there had been a plan to ship medium bombers to China, and to attack Japan frnm there.

    Two of the Imperial princes were deeply involved in war crimes in China, Chichibu and his (and Hirohito’s) evil uncle had the generals umder their command do a lot of bad stuff, including the Nanking massaccre, but they were never in the dock for war crimes, although they had ultimate command.

    Anyway, I could go on.

    My basic point is that, as Fred was saying, thin-hulled ships are very vulnerable. The naval side of the battle of Okinawa (naval almost solely on the U.S.A. side) was the earliest and very strong indication of part of what Fred was writing about.

    I am pretty sure that it was the greatest tonnage ever sunk in a single engagement. Of course, we still lost, but it was a very strong last stand and demonstrated one of the points that Fred was making, but in an earlier time.

    So, purely from a military tactics p.o.v., very interesting as a historical precedent.

    It would have been intereresting if the Nth. Koreans (with surplus Sov. prop. craft) or the Viets (with surplus old-gen. Sov. jets) had tried the same thing on the U.S.N.

    I think it would have been very effective.

  340. @BengaliCanadianDude

    Oh, yeah. and if it were to be in Canada, I would have guessed Toronto would be the place.

  341. JMcG says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    Best comment ever. You are back on your game

  342. Logan says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    The US considered sending a force to Mexico against French forces, but decided not to. It relied on diplomatic pressure (“Soft Power”?)

    Well, sort of. Imediately after the War ended, the US sent a powerful force down to the border and “suggested” the French consider leaving. It also left large depots of surplus armaments “mysteriously” unguarded along the border which were then “mysteriously” carried off by the Mexicans fighting the French occupation.

    IOW, this Soft Power approach was very much “talk softly and carry a really big stick.” In 1865 the Union had by far the largest, most powerful and experienced army in the world, and the French knew it.

  343. @Counterinsurgency

    I learn something new every day…and I’m 60 wtf…lol

    thanks

  344. @Counterinsurgency

    Thanks for the article. It adds another stone to the wall of evidence that we’re living at the end of some sort of cycle

    I found this sentence very interesting, did you mean like a “reset”? Because I have stumbled across a lot of information that points to a global type takeover around the 1700 and 1800’s. This change could have been natural or man made, like an old world to new world take over.

    I don’t want to sound crazy, but I have experienced a type of Dejavu, where I felt I had been there, or something that shouldn’t seem famliar to me, did. Mendela Effect type shit!

    Anyway, I don’t talk about or ask anyone about their opinon on this, but something made me throw it out to you. If it sounds off the wall don’t make me feel like I’m nuts, just say J.G. stay off the Tequilla and I will get the message.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  345. bluedog says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    And I suggest that you try using some—books that is— rather then trying to change history.!!!

  346. Hank Yobo says:

    In 1865 the Union had by far the largest, most powerful and experienced army in the world

    Its Fenian element didn’t have much to boast about if their post-war record was any reflection of their combat capability.

  347. @Che Guava

    Ooops. Nope, the city of Kokura was the original target of the Fat Man bomb dropped by B-29 Bock’s Car. I knew most of that from a report I made long ago but obviously got the city wrong. Kokura was obscured and after 3 bombing runs, Bock’s Car went to the alternate Nagasaki.

    I get your point about the naval battle and ships’ vulnerability. That wasn’t at all my argument. There are commenters that are against anything the US ever did in warfare, and they pull all kind of garbage out of their asses.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @bluedog
    , @Che Guava
  348. @Michael1919

    Agreed, Michael. There are lots of commenters here on unz that can’t distinguish between America of 50 years ago and America of now. It’s very sad when they won’t pick up a book and read about it.

  349. bluedog says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Lol it would help if you had an argument rather then the propaganda that you spread, while bragging about having a website that no sane person would ever visit.!!.!!!

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  350. I highly recommend books by Andrei Martyanov regarding this subject. I am reading his first one for the 3rd time while waiting for his second book. Last night I saw the news about the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. Then when I waited for more news, it never came before I went to sleep. The internet is also playing this down. This could be THE False Flag that we have been expecting, and the lack of news reinforces that.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  351. FB says: • Website
    @Jazman

    I could go through every point – but it would be like debating the professor who “proved” that bumble bees can’t fly. I spent a career flying 4th gen fighters – and currently instruct pilots flying 5th gen. Whats the basis of your “expertise”. Before you run down the F-22 perhaps you should speak to aviators who have actually flown against them.

    I don’t have time for this kind of nonsense…the guy who said this is obviously a keyboard jockey and has absolutely nothing to do with combat aviation if he doesn’t know who Col Riccioni is…

    Again I point to the Colonel’s F-22 critique which speaks for itself…

    Also his answer to F-22 advocates who took issue with his FACTUAL assessment of this aircraft…

    Col Riccioni is a legend who is responsible for pushing through the two-ship fighter tactic that is now standard in not just the USAF but around the world…that’s just one of his many accomplishments…

    His mentor and fellow ‘Fighter Mafia’ member Col John Boyd needs no introduction…he is probably the most influential fighter tactician in history, having created the Energy-Maneuverability theory of aerial combat…

    An article in Air Force Magazine from 2008 gives a decent, although biased, history of the Fighter Mafia…The Reformers…

    The author, who is a writer, not a fighter pilot, had a personal beef with one of the ‘Reformers’…which he admits in the article…

    This article is also factually incorrect on many accounts especially regarding Desert Storm and the effectiveness of radar guided air to air missiles…I had already pointed to a peer-reviewed study on that issue by Lt Colonel Higby…

    Btw…it sounds like you hang out at some of these fanboy discussion sites…go ahead and ask your buddy who ‘instructs’ fifth gen fighter pilots what some of the maneuvers are that are taught in T-38 training, which he would have done before graduating to instructing in type…LOL

    Again…I have no interest in getting sucked into this kind of infantile nonsense with obvious amateurs…please keep that in mind for future reference…

    • Replies: @Jazman
    , @Jazman
  352. @bluedog

    We’re getting well near 10,000 visits a month. That’s 10,000 Maniacs, I guess. I’m surprised you don’t like Peak Stupidity, as you seem to have a great sense of humor with all your laughing out loud and that. Do you slap your knee too, when you read my comments? Ha, I LOLed a little bit in my mouth there myself…

    Yep 10,000 Maniacs from their prime:

    (It’s not the same without some decent-sized woofers, though.)

  353. @Chris Mallory

    By definition, ‘Military’ entails combat. I imagine the enemy saying, ‘wait, those are women, although in Military uniforms, they are non combatants’. NOT! People have to realize that when entering military service, you are a combatant, regardless of male o female. Of course, in the services now a days, several positions for women believe it or not, are in clerical positions. I KNOW, in my Squadron, out of about 120 personnel, about 45 were women; most in desks and doing ‘paperwork, with a hellish attitude, and a few were man haters.

  354. @restless94110

    America’s own first major steps toward free trade, open borders and globalism came with JFK’s Trade Expansion Act and LBJ’s Immigration Act of 1965.

    Cognitive dissonance is alive and well as proven by your observations on Kennedy. Try doing a little research and learning the truth!
    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/globalists-vs-nationalists-who-owns-the-future/

  355. Che Guava says:

    Thx for playing fair. Kokura, in northernmost Kyushu. It would have been worse there (Nagasaki is hilly, so the blast was contained to some extent, Kokura is flat), but it was too cloudy to hit Kokura. So the captain contacted the base by radio, Nagasaki was not far away for a B-29, so …

    A sick point was that there was almost nothhng of military value in Nagasaki. (/_;)/~~, it would have been even worse if they had hit Kokura, big fuel depots to join the firestorm (though they may have been largely empty by then), more fallout, who cares, superbarbarism either way.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  356. @Charles Carroll

    Last night I saw the news about the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities. Then when I waited for more news, it never came before I went to sleep. The internet is also playing this down. This could be THE False Flag that we have been expecting, and the lack of news reinforces that.

    The “news” outlets are waiting to be told what the narrative is…

    Our military capability may be subject to debate, but when it comes to insane propaganda we have uncontested first strike superiority. 🙁

  357. Jazman says:
    @FB

    I appreciate your answer . Guy who answer me is former F18 pilot Jim Danhakl active service 1983 to 2004 . It is Quora he have lot of articles about how US so supperior comparing to others . Many have no idea who is Col. Riccioni and that is shame .
    Thank you for your time
    All the best

  358. Piglet says:
    @anon

    “The military doesn’t trust them, so they obfuscate their ledgers…”

    I well remember this when I was assigned to a major command HQ in the USAF. They didn’t say to outright falsify numbers, but rather it was suggested to “massage the numbers.”

    Well, yeah, it’s the same thing.

  359. Che Guava says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Ha, you may have forgotten but you did cheat here, but not on your first reply. Doesn’t matter.

    I don’t hate everything the U.S. milit. did, i have balanced views of history, as much as that is possible.

    U.S. bombing here, in Korea (plus germ attacks), in Vietnam (plus chemical attacks), not so admirable.

    Tibbets, captain of the Enola Gay, never recovered from his bad feeling of doing a terrible war crime, though the U.S.A.F. promoted him, to the top. He was never happy after. I admire him for that humanity.

    One could go on and on about such things.

    I repeat myself, but my favourite bullshit war story lately is the CPC’s massive ‘victory over Japan’ parade. They had one skirmish. Otherwise, they did nothing. The Nationalists did all of the other fighting. After the U.S.S.R. invaded Japan’s satellite state in Manchuria, and set up a safe base for the CPC, it was all set.

    Stalin supported the Nationalists until then, but obvious connections of the Nationalists to the Yanqui made him change his mind.

    So, the CPC claims to have been part of victory over Japan, which is pure nonsense.

    The one I only read about today, for the first time, was the early September 1939 invasion of Germany by France. Seriously, it obviously failed, but was real. It was based on their treaty obligations to Poland. 11 divisions.

    Perhaps Hegel’s ‘history repeats, first as tragedy, then as farce’ should be replaced by ‘history as told is a farce’.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  360. @Che Guava

    Ha! I don’t consider the 2nd time cheating. I wanted to put the right answer up, at least. I have read some about the continual warfare in China (civil war before the Japs, then both sides – by unequal amounts, as you say – fighting the Japs, then civil war again) during that 2 decade period.

    About the Chinese Reds, you also don’t hear much about what the Long March really was. It was one long-ass retreat, originally out of a Nationalist encirclement in the east. I don’t claim to be an historian, but Peak Stupidity sums up some of this in “The Long March of the Chinese Communists”. Also, Mr. Mao spent plenty of time on a horse, letting the “other equal animals” do the walking and toting.

  361. @Che Guava

    Well, per Wiki (I know, I know), the Jap manufacturing was largely in the form of Mom/Pop shops, not counting the shipbuilding industry*. It was a major military port and not some sort of random alternate target. It just wasn’t 1st on the list for that mission. There’s no excuse to kill civilians just for the hatred, but the Pacific War was not going to end soon, if the bombs hadn’t have been dropped. Millions more would have been dead, Allies and Jap.

    The Japs were not going to surrender otherwise. Now, one could rightly say the Japanese people had no choice in that matter. That brings up what goes on with the current American military war-waging. If the American people, as a whole, don’t stop it, are they not to blame? I say yes – it is after all “their” government.

    .

    * The Nagasaki bomb was off by 2 miles from the target – still massive death and destruction, of course …

  362. @J. Gutierrez

    Because I have stumbled across a lot of information that points to a global type takeover around the 1700 and 1800’s. This change could have been natural or man made, like an old world to new world take over.

    The timing is right for that to have been the result of the 30 Year’s War conclusion, Treaty of Westphalia (1648) that ended an international system based on the feudalism/religion of the Middle Ages and and, more or less from nothing more than scholarly work and common sense (strange combination) instituted the modern European type state [1] that seems to be failing now [2]. It was also responsible for the use of logic and compromise in diplomatic negotiations (as contrasted to absolute dynastic and religious claims). Europe had been impoverished and depopulated by the 30 Years War (and the Spanish/Dutch 80 years war). There were a number of revolutions or attempted revolutions in Europe before 1700 (English Revolution 1640s to 1649 (Cromwell’s new government executes king Charles) and the French Fronde (1648), and later wars/revolts in the Ukraine/Poland and Russia.
    The post-Westphalian governments tended to have much more authority than had pre-30 Years War governments. They had limited wars, many of which concerned trade and colonies (an unanticipated result of reason and logic in diplomacy, IMHO). European governments tried to expand their own trade/manufacturing and take the trade/manufacturing of their rivals. They succeeded in achieving general prosperity by the standards of their time.
    If it took about 50 years after the 1648 end of the 30 Years War to start reaping the benefits of encouraging trade and manufacturing, that would fit the AD 1700’s and 1800’s time interval you mentioned. By AD 1900 it was generally agreed that the changes initiated in the Treaty of Westphalia had produced a commercial Europe that could no longer support the European state of 1648, or for that matter (as it turned out) could not support any state at all [3]. If you want to, you can read the propaganda in Nietzsche, and see that the criticism was not based in reason, but rather in revulsion.

    So you’re right on the money when you say that something mysterious was happening in 1700-1900. That much is agreed upon, and it was quite obviously a byproduct of Europe’s reorganization, but nobody is quite in agreement over exactly what it was or what to do about it.
    As far as Déjà vu goes, take a look at Bloom’s _Closing of the American Mind_ or for that matter at Stanley G. Payne, _The Spanish Civil War_, Cambridge Press, 2012. The Left has been recycling its ideas and actions since the 1920s. It never quite recovered from being defeated by the fascists on the on hand and the Russian nationalists under Stalin on the other, and it’s been repeating itself mindlessly every since. Its only innovation was adopting Nietzsche’s “You can be anything you want” theme from _Thus Spake Zarathustra_ and various props from the National Socialists (e.g. organic food, “Living room” for racial groups), both of which are picked up and dropped about as often as people change their clothes. Once you see the patter, it become pretty close to boring.

    And, of course, the Left’s opposition tends not to argue beyond poking holes in the left’s lies. Bloom called that a “failure of philosophy”, and he was right on the mark.

    Zeitgheist [4] says “Boo!” 🙂

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://www.quora.com/What-was-the-significance-of-the-Treaty-of-Westphalia

    2] Martin von Crevald.
    “Fate of the State”
    _Parameters_, Spring 1996. Look for other sources on the net. _Parameters_ doesn’t seem to support download of that article now. Or, look for von Crevald’s book with the same title.

    3] If you wanted to, you could say that WW I and WW II, plus the AD 1990 failure of the USSR showed that, no, Europe and the West could not co-exist with their own industrialization. See: [2], above, and William H. McNeill’s works (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Hardy_McNeill )
    Or, if you want to read a demolition of the West.

    4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeitgeist

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @J. Gutierrez
  363. Anon[424] • Disclaimer says:
    @Counterinsurgency

    ” So you’re right on the money when you say that something mysterious was happening in 1700-1900. That much is agreed upon, and it was quite obviously a byproduct of Europe’s reorganization, but nobody is quite in agreement over exactly what it was or what to do about it. ”

    What happened in the XVIII century ? consider these points , Counterintelligence
    and Gutierrez , maybe it is too long , but it is interesting

    – 1694 Foundation of the Bank of England

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_England

    – 1717 foundation of the masonry in London,, England

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_Grand_Lodge_of_England

    – 1701 -1714 War of the Spanish Succesion , very important

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession

    This war caused the decline of the Spanish Empire in Europe , not in America , and the decline of France . in benefit of England , ( oh !! of England with her Bank of England and her Masonry ….)

    -The Spanish Empire dominated Europe during the XVI and XVII centuries , Charles I of Spain and V of Germany , a Habsburg , was the Emperor of the Holy Roman-Germanic Empire and of Spain .

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Empire

    -While the europeans killed each other with endless religious wars , Spain was in ( catholic ) peace and with only about 10 million inhabitants was able colonized the Americas . Spain and Portugal were united from 158o to 1640 , under Phillip II , Phillip III and Philip IV .

    -What you call the ” Spanish-Dutch ” war ,was mainly a war between catholic belgians and catholic dutch ( the Low Countries were a province of the Habsburgs ) against rebel protestant dutch . Spain send troops , but most of the soldiers were native belgian and dutch , and german mercenaries …

    -Spain ,and Italy fought against the turkish empire , defeated the turks in Lepanto and Vienna , and prevented a turkish invasion of Germany ( thaks God that Merkel was nor around in that time ) https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batalla_de_Lepanto

    – The english , dutch ,and french always coveted the American and Asiatic ( the Filipinas ) Spanish Empire , but during the XVIII century Spain continued developing the Americas and defeating the english , just see the big battle of Cartagena de Indias
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cartagena_de_Indias ( present Colombia ) , where 4000 spanish with 6 ships completely destroyed an invading english fleet of more that 30.000 men and 200 ships .( the english misteriously hide their defeats )

    – The english always talk about the Invincible Armada victory ( 1588 ) against Spain , but they never say anything about the countless defeats thet they suffered at the hands of Spain , for instance just in 1589 , the following year , the spanish and portuguese gave a much bigger defeat to a big english fleet that invaded the Peninsula https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Armada . Always misterious english fog

    – The Spanish Empire was catholic , was medieval , continued the medieval Christian european traditions , the protestants rejected more or less the Christian heritage , they rejected tradition , they are ” modern “, they are ending up believing that you can choose you sex ( how misterious ) , In the 18 century thanks to the english and to the ” enlightened ” the transition was made and after the french revolution the old order , the ” ancien Regime ” , was defeated , the revolution won .

    – The Monarchia Hispanica functioned very well in the Americas and Filipinas during the 18 century , till the french napoleonic invaded the Iberian Peninsula ( 1807 -1814 )and destroyed Spain and Portugal , and thus the spanish , and portuguese empires . They french caused 500.000 dead in Spain , civilian and military ,(Spain had about 12 million people ) .

    – The latin american criollos were unable to help Spain and even to maintain the Imperial unity , the Spanish order , they fought civil wars that divided a great empire in small decadent countries that have not been able face the english and the yankees , Good bye to the spanish silver ” real de ocho ” , the spanish currency that dominated world trade during 3 centuries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_dollar , and hello to the paper english pound and to the yankee paper dollar , hello permannet debt , in pounds or dollars . Mexico lost half of its land to the US …

    – The napoleonic french lost in the Iberian peninsula invasion more than half a million of well trained soldiers , half dead , half wounded . Napoleon ruined France , like Hitler ruined Germany , England , and USA benefited from the failures of europeans .

    – In the Spanish American war ( 1898 ) against the yankees , Spain lost the last provinces of the once mighty Empire , Cuba , Puerto Rico and the Filipinas , it was obvious that the empire was gone , it overextended , like all empires do .

    — ———So , what happened in the aprox . 18 century ????? nothing so ” mysterious ” , it happened that the Spanish Empire suffered first a retreat in Europe at the beguining of the century , and in the Americas one century later , it hapenned that the last remnants of the traditional medieval european Christian order were gone . Mysterious modern England with her fiat paper money ( Bank of England ) , and with her misterious secret conspirative antichristian associations ( masonry ) dominated the world in the XIX century , organized the two criminal world wars , and in the XX century the sons of England , the yankees inherited the british empire , with the misterious fiat dollar .

    What is so mysterious ?? , and now the rivalries among countries , blocks , continue , like always .

    We should know the history of Spain , of Russia , of the Turkish Empire , of the arab empires , of France , Germany , Greece , Rome , Carthague , Persia , China , India , Japan etc….and the interactions between all the empires or cultures , and not only the version of misterious foggy greedy England .

    Greetings , Salud

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  364. Che Guava says:

    Do you aspirate the ‘h’in ‘hstnry, if not (most do), *an* history is a ridiculous usage. Hour is the only major exception.

    Sure, the English had traditions oddly among the Cockney (who no longer exist, having been replaced by mud-slimes). Read Pygmalion or just watch My Fair Lady.

    The biggest advocates of a dropped aspiritated initial ‘h’ are Noo Yawk Joos, with ridiculouspretentions like pronouncing ‘herb’, as best they can (not much good), in the French

    A herb.

    A history.

    A hotel.

    A hospital.

    Etc..

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  365. @Anon

    Anon 424,

    Thank you,

    I really appreciate the time you took to gather up and share so much information. When my sister received her ancestry report we had ties to the Habsburg lineage.

    What I was really trying to find was if anyone has put together the wars, natural and man made disasters, flooding (mud) and Industral Revolution suddenly apearing. I will list a few things that I found not written agout or hidden from our history:

    1. the “Star Forts” that are located in strategic locations around the world.
    2. world maps showing Tararia as the biggest Empire the world has ever known
    3. maps of California being an Island
    4. cities like Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco more burned to the ground around the same time
    5. cities showing the effects of mud flooding all over the world
    6. news articles of chldren being transported all over the New World in the thousands
    7. news articles of orphan trains distributing children throughout the US
    8. pictures of children operating industrial equipment and mining resources (no adults)
    9. pictures of large cities with huge buildings that look weathered and old taken in the late 1800’s
    10. pictures of World Fairs from all over the world around the 1800 – 1900’s
    11. Free energy power and electric cars in the late 1800’s
    12. huge mansions everywhere the guilded age then suddenly torn down
    13. continued wars and bombardment of cities destroying old buildings (erasing the past)
    14. pictures of soldiers camping on baron lands (no trees) not fighting
    15. the industrial revolution seems more like they found that technology and took it over

    I got it right that Banking, Industrial, Metered Electricity, Oil and Combustion Engines were introduced around the same period. People would now have to pay interest, electricity, gasoline and fight endless wars.

    A Complete Reset with not many adult survivors and children sent around the world to repopulate. That was my queston brother…I know it sounds crazy, but fuck crazier things have happened and we know that our history is fabricated. Add the 1000 years Fomenchenko says is missing and you can write whatever history you want. The previous civilzation was smarter and we keep finding building techology the we can replicate today with our current advance technology.

    I was just fishing to see if anyone on here is looking into this reset!

    Gracias Hermano…

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  366. @Counterinsurgency

    Thank you very much for the info, it will take me a while to check it out, but at least you provided another trail instead of me being stuck where I was…

    Your time is very much appreciated…I just wanted you to know that…some people on here tend to criticize or like to use their high IQ like the Elite use their wealth…to make themselves feel that they are better than you…I have no time for people like that…

    Take a look at the Mexican Indepedence Day celebration that featured Folk Dancers from around the country. You and your family members will be entertained by the whole event.

    Enjoy your day, Sir….

  367. @J. Gutierrez

    OK, I see what you’re saying.

    I’d suggest reading a comprehensive history of the world. No joke, that’s what I did. It will answer most of your questions. Best on I know is William Hardy McNeil, _A History of the Human Condition_. He also has a history of the Islamic world; search for “William Hardy McNeil” in google books for that and several more titles. Suggest you buy the books second hand — much cheaper that way.

    I can answer one question, at least. Star forts were a reaction to gunpowder weapons. Their stonework was covered with soil to absorb the effects of cannon fire. The star shape gave the defenders effective cr0ss-fire against infantry trying to rush the walls. The flat stone surface of the star’s outside let the defenders move cannon to the threatened side of the fort. So it looks like a symbolic statement, but it was highly functional. Those things could be taken only by a siege or a very intense bombardment, both of which were expensive and risky to execute.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  368. I’m always troubled when a columnist brings in the sex angle. Sounds like there’s trouble at the columnist’s home.

    When was the last time Russia or Iran or China was involved in what this columnist would consider “a war”? Sauce, meet goose and gander.

    My big worry which this columnist completely fails to address is an event that never happened (lookin’ at you, Gulf of Tonkin) that starts a war.

    Also not buying the 21 hour a day training schedule in Marine Corps AIT. Not just because of the imaginary schedule but because AIT is an Army thing, not a Marine thing. Ooops!

    Which leads me to discount the author’s “I know more acronyms than you” argument.

    That “junior lawyer from Jesus, Nebraska” just might vote against going to war. Of course we stopped voting on that long ago.

    • Replies: @Bill Brownstone
  369. @Achmed E. Newman

    I do have some areas of disagreement:

    I’m always troubled when a columnist brings in the sex angle. Sounds like there’s trouble at the columnist’s home.

    When was the last time Russia or Iran or China was involved in what this columnist would consider “a war”? Sauce, meet goose and gander.

    My big worry which this columnist completely fails to address is an event that never happened (lookin’ at you, Gulf of Tonkin) that starts a war.

    Also not buying the 21 hour a day training schedule in Marine Corps AIT. Not just because of the imaginary schedule but because AIT is an Army thing, not a Marine thing. Ooops!

    Which leads me to discount the author’s “I know more acronyms than you” argument.

    That “junior lawyer from Jesus, Nebraska” just might vote against going to war. Of course we stopped voting on that long ago.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  370. @Che Guava

    I agree, Che. I put it in bold to make fun of that usage. It’s weird, but I see it all the time.

    • Disagree: Che Guava
    • Replies: @Che Guava
  371. @Ghost of Antiques Roadshow

    I’m no military man, but I’ll take your word over Fred Reed’s, GoAR. His war correspondent days were a long long time ago. He’s either forgotten or the acronyms have changed since his time.

    Thanks for the reply.

  372. @Counterinsurgency

    The Star Forts seem to point at the Spanish as the builders. I was looking at the structures that were used in the ports on Cuba, P.R, Colombia, etc. Anon 424 share his information on the Spanish Empire’s long wars in Europe (Dutch, British, etc.) and you confirming his information with your own information about the constant wars during the 1500 – 1800 involving Spain. The Star Forts look like they might be Spanish…now that you guys confirm Spain was fighting where a lot of these structures are located.

    I don’t know if you or Anon 424 have seen any of the high tech stuff, patents and transportation infrastructure documents, blueprints and print advertising from those years! I have seen the patents for a fax machine, video conferencing, deep tunnel boring machines, gyroscope equipped trains that ran on a monorail system, cars running on the same technology and subway trans that ran in a vacuum tube. The type of system the Tesla guy is trying to build…there are pictures of these subway systems nigger rigged with different motors to propel them in the tunnel, because they didn’t know how they worked. But the print documents found for that system show them moving without a motor. I think those tunnels were turned into the sewer systems of those cities with that technology, NY, London, Paris, etc.

    I feel I’m going to get that, “Damn J.G. stop drinking that Tequila” response now. LOL

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  373. @J. Gutierrez

    People wrote down things they could see were possible long before the things really were possible. Two of the more famous are Leonardo da Vinchi’s tank and helicopter [1] from the 1400s (long before the period you mention). Both had the concept right, (move air down and you get lift, protect firepower by armoring its carrier and give it mobility by putting it on a moving machine), but the power sources, the materials, even the mathematics (calculus, matrix algebra) weren’t available in Lenonardo’s time.
    We still get that today in the literary genre called “hard science fiction” [2]. No way, for example, can humans today build a starship with available energy sources and materials, but you can read right now about “someday” star ships that contradict no physical laws of which the author is aware. They’re a lot like the gyroscope monorail trains and electric cars that were described after the invention of the gyroscope and the electric motor. See Jules Verne’s books [3] for an 1800s example.

    Real life is a lot more complex than most people know. For me, at least, real (0r at least academic) history is about as astonishing, maybe more, as fiction and the oral lore. My top suggestion is reading William H. McNeil [4]. It’s an astonishing story.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] http://www.leonardodavincisinventions.com/inventions-for-flight/leonardo-da-vinci-helicopter/

    2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_science_fiction
    You might like the following “hard science fiction” books:
    Clement, _Mission of Gravity_
    Clement, _Iceworld_
    Vinge, _Fire upon the Deep_
    Fprward, _Dragon’s Egg_
    Vinge, _Rainbows End_

    3] https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/search/?query=jules+verne

    4] Search google books for “William Hardy McNeill”

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  374. Che Guava says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Of course, I meant to hit agree. Oh, well there is no way to withdraw use of the butons.

    My most hateed is ‘an erbe’, Joo Y C pretension, most of the other examples, justifiable in speech and reported speech, but not in journalism or any formal writing.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  375. @Che Guava

    The French are allowed to get away with it. Half the consonants in their writing are there for embellishment, I guess, because they sure don’t pronounce them! “Good morning, Ewwston Approach, Air France 636 Evvy, tree thousand, four undreed.”

    In France, Versailles is “ver seye”, while the folks in Kentucky say it right – “ver sales”.

    ;-}

    • LOL: Che Guava
  376. @GI Joe

    There is no AI in that sense of the word. They are just advanced programs, they can not actually think and there is no logical process to suggest they ever could. It is possible for somebody to create an advanced AI with parameters to end human life on its own initiative, and for some reason hook this program up to actual military equipment. But that isn’t AI becoming sentient, it’s just a weapon being unleashed. A more advanced version of a sentry gun.

  377. @Counterinsurgency

    I will do just that…you have been very patient and helpful with your responses. I think I’m done with this thread, so I say to you, Sir, “I look forward to reading your comments on any future publications and threads posted.

    Again I will try and share something with you redarding your statement, that if oil theft has been prosecuted in a US court, there has to be a much large operation that comtinues to operate. I believe that the majority of stolen oil is sold in the Oil Spot Market. Oil from Syria, Libya, Iraq, Mexico, Latin America, Africa, etc.

    [MORE]

    A market is a site, not necessarily physical, where bidders and claimants agree on a price, to exchange money or means of payment for a product or service. This concept seems very easy in theory, but when we review a market as complex as the oil one, we find that it is not so simple.

    The oil market has a large number of protagonists, which are divided, like a normal one, between buyers (consumer countries) and sellers (producing countries), the problem begins to arise because among the buyer countries is the United States which, In addition to producing almost 10% of world oil (approx. 8MM b / d), it consumes 25% of the world total (approx. 21MM), so you need to buy 13MM b / d from other countries.

    On the other hand, there are OPEC countries (who control about 80% of world oil reserves) with Saudi Arabia in the lead, which, according to the latest data from April, are producing 29.76MM b / d (Venezuela round 2.7MM b / d), this figure means only 35% of the world’s oil demand.

    However, when we analyze what is truly marketed in the international oil market, the Organization’s participation reaches almost 50% of the total. With OPEC, something very important is currently happening, and that is that several of its main member countries (principal for their volume of Reserves), have strengthened their ties with the United States and their strategies not only respond to their own needs, but also They seem to take American demands into account. No one can deny the influence of the United States in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Therefore it seems that the Organization in recent years has lost some independence It is in favor of the main consumer.

    However, we must not forget another important actor: Multinational Oil Companies, which also have a significant percentage of the international oil market and their area of ​​influence extends throughout the world.

    In addition to the diversity of actors and the great weight of each one of them, we must add the volatile geopolitical conditions presented by OPEC countries, which are daily aware of some external disturbance (invasions of consumer countries such as Iraq by the United States, multinational companies encouraging incentives, etc.) or internal (strikes, attacks near wells or refineries, coups, reigns or corrupt governments, serious social deterioration, etc.) which further complicates the evolution of this market.

    Given so much complication, it is unquestionable to ask, What will happen to the price in the coming months? Variable is fundamental for all these characters, and the answer seems strange and suspiciously simple: not much, but nothing indicates that it will go down, because the factors that they made it rise are still latent (high world demand, bottlenecks in the US refining system, the Iraqi conflict), and nothing indicates, under “normal” conditions that will change in the coming months.

    THE BLACK MARKET OF ROTTERDAM. This market is made up of 70 merchants working in their own offices, scattered throughout Europe: Amsterdam, Hamburg, London, Paris … Only a dozen of them are in the Dutch city.

    The market is based fundamentally on the existence of surpluses of oil and refined, which means that what is left over is bought, and since 1979 there is more left over. Trade in this market is made with quantities not subject to long-term contracts, hence the cash denomination.

    For clarity, consider the following definition of this market. Spot Market: International market in which oil or derivatives are exchanged for immediate delivery at the current price (the “spot price”).

    Merchants, large and small, track the existence of some amount not sold somewhere, then call their customers and rent tankers to rid the product. They deal mostly with gasoline, diesel or other refined products. Almost never with raw.

    The large multinationals also enter this market. 55% of the trade in this free market is in charge of the seven sisters, most notably the British-Dutch Shell Oil.

    The history of the Rotterdam Spot Market began when J. Platt decided to regularly publish oil prices in Texas. In 1958, Halsey Peckworth, a former British journalist, bought the rights of the Petrott Platt, which retained his name.

    Peckworth’s company coincided with the immense development, starting in 1959, of the port of Rotterdam, where in addition to Shell, terminals and refineries were installed almost all the other large multinationals. No one paid much attention to Peckworth until the 1973 crisis.

    This list of quotes arrives every night at the tables of the merchants, who on these and other data base their strategy the next day. Twice a week more complete information is sent by mail. For its elaboration in London, Peckworth gets in touch, around three in the afternoon, with about 50 informants, who tell him or give away what has been done that day, what the other merchants do and if there is any rumor in the market . All this data enters a computer, which then distributes telexes to subscribers.

    The importance of the Spot Market is not the quantity, but the price, since all commercial activity, large or small, enters the quotations calculations. In 1977, the European Commission of the EEC examined the reliability of these quotes and concluded that it was good.

    I have a longer more detailed version but didn’t want to paste because of its size.

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  378. @Ghost of Antiques Roadshow

    Fred was talking about ACT (Advanced Combat Training) which was for Marines with the MOS of 0300, Basic Infantryman which was after ICT Individual Combat Training which was conducted at Camp Geiger North Carolina. I was in “S’ Company in the summer of 1965.

  379. Jazman [AKA "Jack Zhang"] says:
    @FB

    Here’s a pilot who routinely goes up against the F-22 in his F-16:

    The difference between these two pilots? Riccioni never flew the F-22 or against it, and this has no actual first hand experience. The actual first hand experience by our F-16 pilot says that the F-22’s kinematic performance far exceeds that of the F-15, while Riccioni claims they are on par with each other. Riccioni claims that the F-22’s stealth is compromised due to its visible, acoustic, IR, and RF (against long wavelength radar) signatures. Sound propagates poorly in the thinner air that fighters routinely fly in. Sound waves and visible light also propagate no where near as far as microwave or IR; if you can hear or see an F-22 or any other jet it is well within range of other sensors too, not to mention being well within the range of the F-22’s weapons and have been for some time. Long wavelength radars can detect VLO aircraft at longer ranges but with greatly reduced precision and with no capacity to fit such a radar into the guidance section of a missile. Notice how Russia’s newest S-400 still use X-band and S-band for fire control. His allegation concerning the range of the F-22 is also false. The F-104 has a ferry range of 2600km with four external fuel tanks and an optimal cruise speed of Mach 0.9. Its combat radius was just 420 miles. The F-22 with no external stores could manage a combat radius of 530 miles with 115 miles under supercruise or 680 miles under optimal cruising conditions; with two external tanks that can be dropped along with the pylons to return the F-22 to its stealthy configuration these figures are increased to 860 miles and 990 miles respectively.

    I could keep going, but I only have so much time in a given day. Keep in mind that Riccioni (not legendary by any metric) was a member of the fighter mafia, a lobby group (not an actual military analyst office) whose rhetoric Riccioni copied in his analysis, said things like multirole jets are over complicated to be successful, BVR missiles (missiles in general really) are unreliable, and that the F-15 was “too big” with an unnecessarily large radar. Among the same group, Pierre Sprey is especially hypocritical considering he likes to claim credit for the F-16, the most successful multirole aircraft to date, that he had no role in designing (he was never an engineer employed by general dynamics) which is still competitive thanks to upgrades such as bigger radars. The F-15 has a very impressive kill ratio against the primitive jets that the fighter mafia seemed to love. Members of this lobby group have a history of misconstruing facts or just straight up lying. Do you really think all the military industries of large powers such as Russia, China, and the US are wrong in their designing of stealth aircraft with large radars while this group of lobbyists (and Riccioni in particular) are right in their evaluations despite none of them having ever actually flown against any of these aircraft or directly contributed in their design process?

    • LOL: FB
  380. @J. Gutierrez

    Agree, the spot market lo0ks like a good way to fence stolen oil if papework can be falsified.

    Here’s an aspect of world history that is flat amazing, more so if you’re interested in lost technologies and vanished human achievements:
    https://www.humanjourney.us/ideas-that-shaped-our-modern-world-section/the-bronze-age-collapse/

    You might also be interested in Chambers, Grew, et.al. _The Western Experience_. It’s an alternative to McNeil.

    Been a pleasure talking with you, and best wishes for future endeavors. I hope the histories will help you in some material way.

    Counterinsurgency

    • Replies: @J. Gutierrez
  381. @Counterinsurgency

    Been a pleasure talking with you, and best wishes for future endeavors. I hope the histories will help you in some material way.

    It has truely been my pleasure sharing with you on this thread…The reason for searching old documents and patents is because I am certain there is something out there that is technologically superior to our current methods of producing energy includng our transportation and industrial sectors. I really believe there is an endless supply of “Free Energy” that we can tap. I believe we once had that technology and during the 1700’s thru 1800’s that source of free energy was replaced by (Electricty AC that could be metered) one that could be tracked and billed. The discovery of oil and the invention of the combustion engine replaced electric powered transportation that used the “Free Energy” source to charge the DC batteries. We also start seeing Banking System, Stock Market and Insurance Industry all get started around that same period.

    The endless wars that we have experienced are a continuation of the takeover by a “Parasitic Group” that took over and does what it has to, so they remain in power. I believe these parasites took over the Factories, Steel Mills and Cities that were left behind. The “Guilded Age” is the timeframe of that take over. They moved into those huge Mansions that were left behind by the old world government.

    The US won it’s Independence in 1776 and was still fighting the British until 1812. It took around forty years to move towards the west coast, fight with Mexico, Spain and take those lands 1860’s. Then they fought the Indian Wars into the 1900’s because the Indians fought the expansion efforts.

    Then we see pictures of the World’s Fair in the early 1900’s. Huge Roman/Greek style buildings in Chicago, San Franciso and other cities. Then they are burned and destroyed or torn down, the same way they tear down those old mansions. All those city buildings and infrustructure were in the same
    style of architecture, the buildings they chose to keep, became our Post Offices, Libraries, City Hall and other goverment buildings. Google buildings in Japan in the 1800’s. You would think they were n Europe.

    I’m not looking for History, I’m looking for secret, erased and hidden information. I hope to find a piece of technology that will allow me to build a 1oo% free energy device to run my ranch. A clean substitute to fossil fuels or a clean way to burn it in a combustion engine. I found a device that will convert liquid gasoline, oil or any liquid that contains hydrocarbons into a plasma gas and burn 100% of the fuel. Testing it in a Power Washer Briggs & Stratton motor…

    I have been experimenting with a combination of AC to DC motors, running a generator with a loop back circuit that will power the drive motor, but the Back EMF cancels the energy being produced to almost nothing. I did find a patent by a Mexican engineer that developed a system such as the one I was testing. He developed a switching system that would pulse the electricity being generated through a converter into a battery bank that ran the DC moter that drove the generator.

    You are right about one thing, I’m not trying to become a History teacher…I’m looking for historical documents, that might have enough technical information to build something that keeps me from sending my hard earn money to companies that stole that technology or destroyed the free source.

    The Benitez Free Energy device is what I’m working with. The Tesla Switch and the Bendini self running motor use this man’s technology within their circuit…Benitez had patented his free energy device back in the 1920’s and yet no one in Mexico has heard of him.

    Thanks again, now you know what I am really after, have to watch what I post, the powers that be have made many people that find that piece of technology disapear…

    Thanks again…later

    • Replies: @Counterinsurgency
  382. Jazman [AKA "Hendrex"] says:
    @FB

    I know Morten Hanche of the Norwegian Air Force has talked about how the F-35 is a spectacular aircraft, even though far from perfect.

    Not to mention how the FF-35 has been clubbing F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s like baby seals in many recent exercises.And the F-35 won’t be running from anyone, but rather will ambushing hapless 4+ gen fighters or 2nd rate stealth fighters like the SU-57, or if there are too many fighters, deciding not to engage without ever having to run because they were never detected. Illustrated by this little diddy;

    “During the first week of Red Flag, the F-35 pilots flew in a larger force of Blue Air in a counter-air mission. More than 60 aggressor aircraft were flying against them, blinding many of the fourth-generation aircraft with “robust” electronic attack capabilities.

    “I’ve never seen anything like it before.” Wood said. “This is not a mission you want a young pilot flying in. My wingman was a brand new F-35A pilot, seven or eight flights out of training. He gets on the radio and tells an experienced, 3,000-hour pilot in a very capable fourth-generation aircraft. ‘Hey bud, you need to turn around. You’re about to die. There’s a threat off your nose.’”

    The young pilot then “killed” the enemy aircraft and had three more kills in the hour-long mission.”
    F-35 is much more than just stealth. It’s an EW beast;

    “While F-35 is capable of stand-off jamming for other aircraft — providing 10 TIMES the effective radiated power of any legacy fighter — F-35s can also operate in closer proximity to the threat (‘stand-in’) to provide jamming power many multiples that of any legacy fighter.”

    From BAE: “Always active, AN/ASQ-239 provides all-aspect, broadband protection, allowing the F-35 to reach well-defended targets and suppress enemy radars. The system stands alone in its ability to operate in signal-dense environments, providing the aircraft with radio-frequency and infrared countermeasures, and rapid response capabilities.”
    And let me explain something to you about stealth and jamming. They’re synergistic. If your SU-35 has an RCS of .1M^2 and my F-35 has an RCS of .0001m^2, then your SU-35 needs 1,000 times the jamming power of my F-35 to provide the same masking. Conversely, my F-35 needs 1/1000th of the jamming power. …… That is why the F-35 has jamming, not because it’s stealth is inferior. …… And the F-35 has a lot more EW tricks than just jamming, like Cyber Attacks and False Targets.

    And let’s not forget that the APG-81 AESA radar on the F-35 can focus it’s radar beams like a laser, and can fry electronics at “tactically significant ranges”.

  383. Jazman [AKA "Hendrex"] says:
    @FB

    I know Morten Hanche of the Norwegian Air Force has talked about how the F-35 is a spectacular aircraft, even though far from perfect.

    Not to mention how the FF-35 has been clubbing F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s like baby seals in many recent exercises.And the F-35 won’t be running from anyone, but rather will ambushing hapless 4+ gen fighters or 2nd rate stealth fighters like the SU-57, or if there are too many fighters, deciding not to engage without ever having to run because they were never detected. Illustrated by this little diddy;

    “During the first week of Red Flag, the F-35 pilots flew in a larger force of Blue Air in a counter-air mission. More than 60 aggressor aircraft were flying against them, blinding many of the fourth-generation aircraft with “robust” electronic attack capabilities.

    “I’ve never seen anything like it before.” Wood said. “This is not a mission you want a young pilot flying in. My wingman was a brand new F-35A pilot, seven or eight flights out of training. He gets on the radio and tells an experienced, 3,000-hour pilot in a very capable fourth-generation aircraft. ‘Hey bud, you need to turn around. You’re about to die. There’s a threat off your nose.’”

    The young pilot then “killed” the enemy aircraft and had three more kills in the hour-long mission.”
    F-35 is much more than just stealth. It’s an EW beast;

    “While F-35 is capable of stand-off jamming for other aircraft — providing 10 TIMES the effective radiated power of any legacy fighter — F-35s can also operate in closer proximity to the threat (‘stand-in’) to provide jamming power many multiples that of any legacy fighter.”

    From BAE: “Always active, AN/ASQ-239 provides all-aspect, broadband protection, allowing the F-35 to reach well-defended targets and suppress enemy radars. The system stands alone in its ability to operate in signal-dense environments, providing the aircraft with radio-frequency and infrared countermeasures, and rapid response capabilities.”
    And let me explain something to you about stealth and jamming. They’re synergistic. If your SU-35 has an RCS of .1M^2 and my F-35 has an RCS of .0001m^2, then your SU-35 needs 1,000 times the jamming power of my F-35 to provide the same masking. Conversely, my F-35 needs 1/1000th of the jamming power. …… That is why the F-35 has jamming, not because it’s stealth is inferior. …… And the F-35 has a lot more EW tricks than just jamming, like Cyber Attacks and False Targets.

    And let’s not forget that the APG-81 AESA radar on the F-35 can focus it’s radar beams like a laser, and can fry electronics at “tactically significant ranges”.

    • Replies: @FB
  384. Daksdaddy says:
    @Brendan

    It would be. I’ve been reading Fred’s columns for the last 2 decades, what you fail to recognize is that this man is a patriot. Read some older columns, you too might recognize it as such. If not, I suppose you’re probably too indoctrinated in the current zeitgeist and have no ability to see the world as it was, as it is and how it could be without the constant overbearing intrusion of unelected representatives.

  385. @J. Gutierrez

    Ok, one last message.

    Seems you’re looking for a power source for your ranch. I have three engineering degrees, and I’ve faced similar problems. Advice:

    a) Don’t look to speculative power supplies. At best they are laboratory curiosities. If you work with these, you’re playing venture capitalist whether you want to be or not [1], and venture capitalist takes serious capital. Nothing wrong with being a venture capitalist as long as you know that you are one, what the rewards and penalties are and how the game is played.

    b) You need reliable power for a ranch. There are several sources:
    1) If you have a capped off gas well, or a oil well capped off for low production , you can burn that fuel to provide power. Supposedly there are fuel cells that can accept natural gas, but I seem to remember that they can be poisoned (their active elements contaminated enough to stop working) by some kinds of natural gas (those with sulfur, or “sour” natural gas), so check for compatibility first.
    2) If you have a livestock operation and ranch hands, you can set up a methane production plant fed by animal waste, and burn the methane.
    3) If you have watered woodland, you can buy a wood burning steam engine and power a generator.
    4) If you have a stream with good flow on a nearby hill, you can buy a water turbine that could power a generator.
    5) If you want power for the next 20 years (then nothing), you can buy a solar power system. Conceal it on top of a flat roofed adobe building. Main problem is batteries — they have a 10 year lifespan. You may be able to buy batteries that have not been filled yet with sulfuric acid; you can store such batteries indefinitely. Buying a spare set would give you the 20 year life you want. A solar power system gives you a computer, communications, lights, a security system w/ camerase, but little more.

    All of these options are very expensive, but they are probably all available. Can’t recommend manufacturers; it’s been about 20 years since I last looked.

    And I’d still recommend a world history book. Good reading, and makes you a bit more resilient when an unexpected historical event occurs and the media lies it’s head off.

    Counterinsurgency

    1] https://www.coxblue.com/vc-funding-stages-explained/

  386. Jt says:
    @Ron B Liebermann

    To think unions in the US have that kind of stroke is delusional.

  387. Anonymous[212] • Disclaimer says:
    @gT

    The US SM-6 can be used to target surface targets (ships). Seems to be a pretty expensive use of a multi-million SAM. But on the other hand having an uberexpensive dual use supersonic missile is better than having none…

  388. Herald says:
    @SeekerofthePresence

    Excellent, couldn’t have put it better.

  389. Herald says:
    @Colin Wright

    From personal experience, I can tell you that old age is far far worse than it’s cracked up to be, which isn’t much.

    Now Trump may be a bit slow all round, compared to ageing warrior queen Hillary, but I still remain very confident that his handlers will successfully steer him into a major Gulf war, in the fairly near future.

    The war will of course, be disastrous for all and Trump, whether he knows it or not, seems to be doing everything he can to help it along.

    • Replies: @hunor
  390. @foolisholdman

    In nuclear war there is only guaranteed loss.

  391. hunor says:
    @Herald

    Trump will not attack any country until , he is reelected.
    After that watch out , he is a business man, or more correctly a gambler.

  392. @FB

    ………………………?

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