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The Looming War Against Iran
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President Donald Trump and his neocon advisors have been trying to provoke a war with Iran and Syria for many months.

The neocons are echoing Cato the Elder’s cry, ‘delenda est Carthago!’. Iran must be destroyed.

So far, Tehran and its ally Damascus have refused to respond to US naval and air incursions or Israel’s growing air attacks in Syria. But the war of words between the US and Iran has now reached a critical phase.

Last week, Trump, who evaded military service during the Vietnam War, made his loudest threats yet against Iran, bringing the danger of war to the boiling point. On 21 May, the hard-line US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a thunderous ultimatum to Iran during an address to the US Heritage Foundation, a rich, influential arm of America’s Israel lobby.

Pompeo made 12 totally unacceptable demands on Iran that were clearly designed to be rejected by Tehran. Not since Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum against Serbia in 1914 have we seen such a clear effort to bring about war. Tehran quickly dismissed Pompeo as ‘a gangster.’

We are by now used to blood and thunder rhetoric between Washington and Tehran. But this time White House policy is clearly being directed by pro-Israel American neocons who want the US military to crush Iran as it did Iraq.

Crushing Iran will leave Israel with unfettered control of the Mideast and its oil – unless Russia or Turkey intervene against Israel, which is most unlikely. Some think Russia and Israel – and the US – have already made a deal to divvy up the central Mideast.

‘Let the Americans come,’ one Iranian militant told me, ‘they will break their teeth on Iran.’ Very colorful but hardly accurate. The US and Israel will surely avoid a massive, costly land campaign again Iran, a vast, mountainous nation that was willing to suffer a million battle casualties in its eight-year war with Iraq that started in 1980 . This gruesome war was instigated by the US, Britain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to overthrow Iran’s new popular Islamic government.

The Pentagon has planned a high-intensity air war against Iran that Israel and the Saudis might very well join. The plan calls for over 2,300 air strikes against Iranian strategic targets: airfields and naval bases, arms and petroleum, oil and lubricant depots, telecommunication nodes, radar, factories, military headquarters, ports, water works, airports, missile bases and units of the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran’s air defenses range from feeble to non-existent. Decades of US-led military and commercial embargos against Iran have left it as decrepit and enfeebled as was Iraq when the US invaded in 2003. The gun barrels of Iran’s 70’s vintage tanks are warped and can’t shoot straight, its old British and Soviet AA missiles are mostly unusable, and its ancient MiG and Chinese fighters ready for the museum, notably its antique US-built F-14 Tomcats, Chinese copies of obsolete MiG-21’s, and a handful of barely working F-4 Phantoms of Vietnam War vintage.

ORDER IT NOW

Air combat command is no better. Everything electronic that Iran has will be fried or blown up in the first hours of a US attack. Iran’s little navy will be sunk in the opening attacks. Its oil industry may be destroyed or partially preserved depending on US post-war plans for Iran.

The only way Tehran can riposte is by staging isolated commando attacks on US installations in the Mideast of no decisive value, and, of course, blocking the narrow Strait of Hormuz that carries two thirds of Mideast oil exports. The US Navy, based nearby in Bahrain, has been practicing for decades to combat this threat.

China vows to keep buying Iranian oil in spite of the US blockade to be imposed this fall. This could put the US and China on a collision course.

While Iran may be able to interdict some oil exports from the Arab states, and cause maritime insurance rates to skyrocket, it’s unlikely to be able to block the bulk of oil exports unless it attacks the main oil terminals in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf with ground troops. During the Iran-Iraq war, neither side was able to fully interdict the other’s oil exports.

Direct western intervention in a major ground campaign seems unlikely. But the US and Israeli war plan would aim to totally destroy Iran’s infrastructure, communications and transport (including oil) crippling this important nation of 80 million and taking it back to the pre-revolutionary era. That was the plan for Iraq, the Arab world’s most industrialized nation. Today Iraq still lies in ruins.

One recalls the words of the great Roman historian, Tacitus: ‘they make a desert and call it peace.’

(Republished from EricMargolis.com by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, Donald Trump, Iran, Neocons 
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  1. bob sykes says:

    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters, maybe only one, and the maritime insurance companies will cancel the insurance on all commercial shipping in the region. That will force ship owners to remove their ships from the region, until the US and its allies can guarantee no further attacks. Note that Iran doesn’t need an air force or navy to do this. A few speedboats carrying RPG’s and land-based artillery and missiles suffice. Although a few kamikaze attacks on US naval ships would be a good use of Iran’s obsolete navy and air force.

    Remember that we were unable to find and destroy Hussein’s scuds in the flat, open desert of Iraq. We won’t find Iran’s artillery and missiles in the Zagros Mountains, either.

    Keeping the oil flowing requires physical control of Iran from its coast inland as far as its anti-ship missiles can reach, which is about 120 miles for the latest version. So, the US and its allies would be forced to occupy Iran with ground troops, with all the bloody-mindedness that implies. It would be Vietnam II or maybe Korea II. The US and its allies lost both Korea I and Vietnam I.

    And Iran has other options, including terrorist attacks in the US against US civilians and politicians and infrastructure (think Mall of the Americas), and inciting Shi’ite unrest throughout the Middle East. Our base in Bahrain is in a Shi’ite country.

    Even if it could be done (zero probability), the time required to subdue Iran is on the order of many months to years, and during much or all of that time the oil flow out of the Persian Gulf would be minimal. We would have another Great Depression, probably deeper and longer than the first. The duration of the war would be greatly increased if Russia and China decided to support Iran. Both countries actively supported North Korea and North Vietnam during those wars.

    A large-scale, long-duration Persian Gulf war would mark the collapse of American hegemony in the world and maybe even the American state.

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico

    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters...
     
    Wrong! It is the opposite. Short of a Russian nuclear strike on the refinery and port operations of Ras Tanura there is very little that will stop export of oil from the Persian Gulf more than temporarily. And the global supply system has enough flexibility in oil on tankers, in pipelines, in refineries, and in storage that a temporary halt will not be much of a crisis.

    Demand from Asia and Europe exerts too much of a pull.

    If Iran hits a few tankers, what do you think will happen to Iran? The US Navy, special forces, and land-based fighters from the area will straighten that situation out quickly. That's what the entire US military exists for. The free-flow of Gulf oil.
    , @Barzini
    Pundits have been predicting an attack on Iran for many years, yet it has not happened. At least not yet. Let's hope that they are wrong again.
    , @Eileen Kuch
    Bob, you're absolutely right in stating that Iran's very difficult, if not impossible, to defeat in a war; this is due not only to its topography (Iran's mountainous; whereas, Iraq's mostly flat) but also to its highly trained and disciplined military and its highly advanced missiles and their delivery systems. In addition, Iran's allied with both Russia and China who'd come to aid the Islamic Republic.
    President Donald Trump has stated there'll be no war against Iran, despite what the Trotskyists aka Neocons and their Globalist friends may say. He knows quite well what the consequences would be; plus, he knows a 3rd World War would destroy life on earth, leaving it a devastated wasteland.
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  2. Sean says:

    I don’t think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

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    • Replies: @F-35s hahahahaha
    When the Sepāh and the Basij get finished with you Zionazi genocidaires nobody will be missing the Jewish-state settler colonialists. When it comes down to it, Israel's a one-nuke laydown, and if some US government moron falls for Jew state "let's you and him fight," all your Bronze age Khazar temples will get brushed away like lint in the first round.

    http://thesaker.is/a-leftist-analysis-of-irans-basij-likely-the-first-in-the-west/
    , @krollchem
    Could you provide a deep military analysis of Iran's self defense capabilities, with links. Otherwise, your comment is just offal.

    Likewise, the author has no understanding of the Iranian defensive capabilities.

    It is a shame that today's children are so narcissistic.
    , @Colin Wright
    'I don’t think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.'

    There is the consideration that we here in the US will have committed an act of unbelievable moral depravity.
    , @Henryhackton
    " No one will be sorry to see them go."

    Typical of arrogant American motor-mouth know it all knuckle draggers. Is there a more sickening people on earth?
    , @Per/Norway
    sure sean, go sip more of your kool-aid. i dont think im wrong if i say you are a murican citizen?
    try to understand that the world is a different place then hollyweird told you your entire life;)
    here is one Murican guy that tried to tell you some truth,, they killed him i believe..
    https://viefag.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/transcripts-of-william-cooper-s-mystery-babylon-series.pdf
    , @Fidelios Automata
    The same sentiment would probably apply to Israel, if so many evangelicals weren't brainwashed into supporting Zionism.
    , @anon
    Don't. Confuse your stupidity or desires with that of other.
    , @Sir Launcelot Canning
    "No one will be sorry to see them go."

    This is how I, and more and more people every day, feel about Israel.
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  3. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    When the Sepāh and the Basij get finished with you Zionazi genocidaires nobody will be missing the Jewish-state settler colonialists. When it comes down to it, Israel’s a one-nuke laydown, and if some US government moron falls for Jew state “let’s you and him fight,” all your Bronze age Khazar temples will get brushed away like lint in the first round.

    http://thesaker.is/a-leftist-analysis-of-irans-basij-likely-the-first-in-the-west/

    Read More
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  4. krollchem says:
    @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    Could you provide a deep military analysis of Iran’s self defense capabilities, with links. Otherwise, your comment is just offal.

    Likewise, the author has no understanding of the Iranian defensive capabilities.

    It is a shame that today’s children are so narcissistic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sean
    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won't help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It's the end of the story.
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  5. …and the message will be clear.

    All must kneel before Israel.

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  6. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    ‘I don’t think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.’

    There is the consideration that we here in the US will have committed an act of unbelievable moral depravity.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sean
    THE RENAISSANCE.
    SAVONAROLA, CESARE BORGIA, JULIUS II. LEO X. MICHAEL ANGELO
    :: BY ARTHUR, COUNT GOBINEAU
    ( Pope Alexander VI. defends his son Cesare Borgia before his sister Lucrezia, whose husband, Don Alphonso d'Aragon, Cesare Borgia has just strangled) :

    He is not a monster, my daughter, but a ruler who could not enter his destined sphere but at the price of the most sustained and sometimes the most pitiless effort. Listen to me, Lucrezia, and don't raise your hands to heaven. ... I am trying to awaken in you what I know to be true, clear-cut and powerful sentiments My daughter, you are as beautiful as Pride, you are Strength itself Hence I will speak to you.

    . . . Know then that for that kind of persons whom fate summons to dominate others, the ordinary rules of life are reversed and duty becomes quite different. Good and evil are lifted to another, to a higher region, to a different plane. The virtues that may be applauded in an ordinary woman would in you become vices, merely because they would only be sources of error and ruin. Now the great law of this world is, not to do this or that, to avoid one thing and run after another : it is to live, to en- large and develop one's most active and lofty qualities, in such a way that from any sphere we can always hew ourselves out a way to one that is wider, nobler, more elevated. Never forget that. Walk straight on. Do only what pleases you, but only do it, if it likewise serves you. Leave to the small minds, the rabble of underlings, all slackness and scruple. There is only one consideration worthy of you the elevation of the house of Borgia and yourself.
     

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  7. Anyway, it’s all kind of academic for the moment.

    The polls make it clear that all the propaganda notwithstanding, Americans continue to be overwhelmingly opposed to an attack on Iran.

    At a minimum, there’s going to have to be an ‘Iranian terrorist attack’ first. So the Mossad’s going to have to get busy, and until they produce, nothing is going to happen.

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  8. Ma Laoshi says:

    Not sure all of this is factual; if striking Iran were such a breeze, surely some US Govt in the past fifteen years would have gone for it. And yet: where are Iran’s air defenses? Where are Russia and China? Talk of admitting Iran into the SCO … eventually … is not an adequate response to what the Empire is mobilizing. What do these countries think is going to happen once Iran is in rubble; is the Dark Throne going to proclaim eternal peace now that Israel is safe? No kids, somebody else will be next on the menu.

    It’s the biggest of cliche’s, but indeed these countries must hang together or they’ll each hang separately.

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  9. 1. israel israel israel…………they are the most over rated military in the world. they have decisively lost the syrian war and no0w face syrian regualrs on the golan border and there is nothing they can do about it. their army was smacked hard by hezbollah in 2006 and as yet the idf has not sought a re match knowing full well they would lose AND the war would be brought to haifa and points south irrevocably the destroying the myth of idf power. all the idf is good for killing women, children and unarmed civilians. even their vaunted air force is now at the mercy of clearing matters with the russians and in time will be unable to safely penetrate syrian regular air defenses. even now they mostly stnd off over lebanon or israel proper and shoot missiles into syria from a safe distance.

    todays idf is not the 1982 idf is against opponents every bit as good or better than they are.

    as for the pentagon bombing iran. good luck with that. iran is a critical node in chinas belt road project and is the entrance to underbelly of the russian caucasus. no way either will allow iran to be destroyed by petulant americans.

    for anyone actually awake and paying attention it is america, israel and SA that have sustained huge losses having seen their mideast rearrangment plan smashed with no chance for a redo.

    too many folks pay attention to the nonsense spouted by pundits and the media as if words were deeds. any moron can pen an op ed in the nyt saying whatever sewage passes through their head. doesn’t make it true or even possible.

    and in america these days all too many citizens are unable to makes for a 20 without a computer, asking them to discern facts from bullshit is altogether a bridge to far.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sir Launcelot Canning
    The issue isn't Israel fighting with their military. It is how they fight through financial and political subversion. In that area they have no peer.
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  10. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    ” No one will be sorry to see them go.”

    Typical of arrogant American motor-mouth know it all knuckle draggers. Is there a more sickening people on earth?

    Read More
    • Agree: Per/Norway
    • Replies: @fish

    Typical of arrogant American motor-mouth know it all knuckle draggers. Is there a more sickening people on earth?
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ882QYzr-M
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  11. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    sure sean, go sip more of your kool-aid. i dont think im wrong if i say you are a murican citizen?
    try to understand that the world is a different place then hollyweird told you your entire life;)
    here is one Murican guy that tried to tell you some truth,, they killed him i believe..

    https://viefag.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/transcripts-of-william-cooper-s-mystery-babylon-series.pdf

    Read More
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  12. From 2004. That’s right, 2004 and practically every year since:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/u-s-invasion-of-iran-draws-closer/

    Note that even the headlines in 2004 and 2018 are basically the same.

    Does Unz.com require its foreign policy (haha) experts to recite the same line? Does it bother anyone that people who make the very same incorrect prediction time after time just keep going?

    Read More
    • Replies: @El Dato
    Counterpoint is the permanent re-thread of the Iranian menace headline scam.

    The Iraq and Syria show didn't go as smooth as planned, and Russia doesn't want to expose its belly -- this means delay.

    Hitler got messily involved in Yougoslavia before launching operation Barbarossa, same problem.
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  13. There will never be a US attack on Iran.

    The final genocide of the Iranian “people” will be carried out by the Jews, not the Americans. Thus it is written.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    Do you have links supporting your statement, or are you just blowing hot air?
    , @El Dato
    > Jews actually doing something
    , @Moi
    A war on Iran, as outlined by Margolis, will have a ripple effect throughout the Muslim world and beyond.

    Anyone who thinks he an predict the fallout/blowback is a fool, far, far bigger than the bigot DoS Pompus Maximus or the Orange One--or even Eric Margolis.
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  14. krollchem says:
    @Greasy William
    There will never be a US attack on Iran.

    The final genocide of the Iranian "people" will be carried out by the Jews, not the Americans. Thus it is written.

    Do you have links supporting your statement, or are you just blowing hot air?

    Read More
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  15. Sean says:
    @krollchem
    Could you provide a deep military analysis of Iran's self defense capabilities, with links. Otherwise, your comment is just offal.

    Likewise, the author has no understanding of the Iranian defensive capabilities.

    It is a shame that today's children are so narcissistic.

    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won’t help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It’s the end of the story.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Fidelios Automata
    US troops didn't belong in Iraq. Saddam Hussein was 1000% preferable to ISIS.
    Anyone who opposes the evil Saudis is a hero in my book. And yes, opposing them IS self-defense on Iran's part. Down with the sheiks!
    , @anon
    Lies of Blair ( UK ) and Lieberman( USA) have become accepted truth despite proved to be false wild imgamiation of Neocon that Iran was behind the killing . It follow d same path - lie and lie before anyone knows what's being talked about or what's happening to ensure the permanence of the lies on the mind- just like 1991 war, 2003 war or 911- and the public and the troll will come out of the inactive life to support war.
    , @El Dato

    A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not.
     
    I don't even know how this fits into the current Real World situation.

    Maybe it's Alternate History?
    , @anon
    state has to know its limitations and Iran does not."

    A truth that both European sidekicks and American public found this reality slapped on their faces one decade plus few years after shock and awe .

    Now there is shock but the awe has left the mind looking for cheap emotion.
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  16. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    The same sentiment would probably apply to Israel, if so many evangelicals weren’t brainwashed into supporting Zionism.

    Read More
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  17. @Sean
    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won't help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It's the end of the story.

    US troops didn’t belong in Iraq. Saddam Hussein was 1000% preferable to ISIS.
    Anyone who opposes the evil Saudis is a hero in my book. And yes, opposing them IS self-defense on Iran’s part. Down with the sheiks!

    Read More
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  18. anon[693] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    Don’t. Confuse your stupidity or desires with that of other.

    Read More
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  19. anon[693] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean
    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won't help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It's the end of the story.

    Lies of Blair ( UK ) and Lieberman( USA) have become accepted truth despite proved to be false wild imgamiation of Neocon that Iran was behind the killing . It follow d same path – lie and lie before anyone knows what’s being talked about or what’s happening to ensure the permanence of the lies on the mind- just like 1991 war, 2003 war or 911- and the public and the troll will come out of the inactive life to support war.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/07/27/joe-lieberman-is-more-than-an-embarrassment-to-me-as-a-jew/

    Liberman the congenital bastard is still doing same thing he does well, hurting American people .
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  20. Realist says:

    Israel and the Evangelicals are the reasons for US animosity toward Iran. This group runs ads on Fox News from time to time

    https://www.youtube.com/user/IFCJ25

    That little anti-White Jew Zuckerberg could take care of the ‘problem’ with pocket change….not to mention the other multi-billionaire Jews.

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  21. anon[693] • Disclaimer says:

    “Some think Russia and Israel – and the US – have already made a deal to divvy up ”

    Interesting possibility. But what China will get ? The developments in Syria do not suggest a possibility of Moscow DC and Tel Aviv on board together .

    Iran is a foe of Israel, because of Israel’s strategic goals in Syria and Lebanon.
    How an intact Syria does comport with the triple alliance ? It doesn’t .

    Iran was more vulnerable in 2003 , 2006, but Bush didn’t attack . Because it was not found to be not cost effective . Since then relations among China Russia Iran Pakistan and Syria have undergone some major positive and powerful changes which are at odds with that of western interests.

    Second the geopolitical advantages Russia want , it has already got – Egypt , Iran, Saudi , Syria and Qatar are already lining up for support help and protection of Russia . So has Turkey.

    So why Russia will share it with US? Iran is not a threat to Russia by any stretch of imagination . Why Russia will want the Iranian become a source of future threat to it ?

    Read More
    • Replies: @paraglider
    much of the bullshit we read about that says russia and israel have made this deal or that deal is pure tel aviv pysops nonsense.

    israel has thr weakest hand to play and so makes up for its profound weakness and vulnerability by using the media to pretend that negotiations on this poiunt or that point have taken place.

    its very much like the crap cnn and nyt;'s and washington post write about trump. fairy tales they try to sell as wearable whole cloth. its mind game using words to conjure a reality they hope they can put over.

    in effect they use words to attempt to create an opinion in the public mind which if enough people accept as fact becomes fact.

    its all a magic show using misdirection so the audience can not see how truly weak and vulnerable the magician actually is.

    israel is best understood as david and goliath. they act like david pretending arrogance pays off.
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  22. Sean says:
    @Colin Wright
    'I don’t think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.'

    There is the consideration that we here in the US will have committed an act of unbelievable moral depravity.

    THE RENAISSANCE.
    SAVONAROLA, CESARE BORGIA, JULIUS II. LEO X. MICHAEL ANGELO
    :: BY ARTHUR, COUNT GOBINEAU
    ( Pope Alexander VI. defends his son Cesare Borgia before his sister Lucrezia, whose husband, Don Alphonso d’Aragon, Cesare Borgia has just strangled) :

    He is not a monster, my daughter, but a ruler who could not enter his destined sphere but at the price of the most sustained and sometimes the most pitiless effort. Listen to me, Lucrezia, and don’t raise your hands to heaven. … I am trying to awaken in you what I know to be true, clear-cut and powerful sentiments My daughter, you are as beautiful as Pride, you are Strength itself Hence I will speak to you.

    . . . Know then that for that kind of persons whom fate summons to dominate others, the ordinary rules of life are reversed and duty becomes quite different. Good and evil are lifted to another, to a higher region, to a different plane. The virtues that may be applauded in an ordinary woman would in you become vices, merely because they would only be sources of error and ruin. Now the great law of this world is, not to do this or that, to avoid one thing and run after another : it is to live, to en- large and develop one’s most active and lofty qualities, in such a way that from any sphere we can always hew ourselves out a way to one that is wider, nobler, more elevated. Never forget that. Walk straight on. Do only what pleases you, but only do it, if it likewise serves you. Leave to the small minds, the rabble of underlings, all slackness and scruple. There is only one consideration worthy of you the elevation of the house of Borgia and yourself.

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  23. El Dato says:
    @anony-mouse
    From 2004. That's right, 2004 and practically every year since:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/u-s-invasion-of-iran-draws-closer/


    Note that even the headlines in 2004 and 2018 are basically the same.

    Does Unz.com require its foreign policy (haha) experts to recite the same line? Does it bother anyone that people who make the very same incorrect prediction time after time just keep going?

    Counterpoint is the permanent re-thread of the Iranian menace headline scam.

    The Iraq and Syria show didn’t go as smooth as planned, and Russia doesn’t want to expose its belly — this means delay.

    Hitler got messily involved in Yougoslavia before launching operation Barbarossa, same problem.

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  24. El Dato says:
    @Greasy William
    There will never be a US attack on Iran.

    The final genocide of the Iranian "people" will be carried out by the Jews, not the Americans. Thus it is written.

    > Jews actually doing something

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  25. El Dato says:
    @Sean
    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won't help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It's the end of the story.

    A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not.

    I don’t even know how this fits into the current Real World situation.

    Maybe it’s Alternate History?

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  26. If China wants to maintain the flow of Iranian oil then they should sell Iran tanks and weapons at cost, or at least a very modest mark-up.

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  27. @Sean
    I don't think is has anything to do wit oil. Iran has a large population and oil money but it is not an Arab country, or powerful enough to withstand the enemies it has made. No one will be sorry to see them go.

    “No one will be sorry to see them go.”

    This is how I, and more and more people every day, feel about Israel.

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  28. @paraglider
    1. israel israel israel............they are the most over rated military in the world. they have decisively lost the syrian war and no0w face syrian regualrs on the golan border and there is nothing they can do about it. their army was smacked hard by hezbollah in 2006 and as yet the idf has not sought a re match knowing full well they would lose AND the war would be brought to haifa and points south irrevocably the destroying the myth of idf power. all the idf is good for killing women, children and unarmed civilians. even their vaunted air force is now at the mercy of clearing matters with the russians and in time will be unable to safely penetrate syrian regular air defenses. even now they mostly stnd off over lebanon or israel proper and shoot missiles into syria from a safe distance.

    todays idf is not the 1982 idf is against opponents every bit as good or better than they are.

    as for the pentagon bombing iran. good luck with that. iran is a critical node in chinas belt road project and is the entrance to underbelly of the russian caucasus. no way either will allow iran to be destroyed by petulant americans.

    for anyone actually awake and paying attention it is america, israel and SA that have sustained huge losses having seen their mideast rearrangment plan smashed with no chance for a redo.

    too many folks pay attention to the nonsense spouted by pundits and the media as if words were deeds. any moron can pen an op ed in the nyt saying whatever sewage passes through their head. doesn't make it true or even possible.

    and in america these days all too many citizens are unable to makes for a 20 without a computer, asking them to discern facts from bullshit is altogether a bridge to far.

    The issue isn’t Israel fighting with their military. It is how they fight through financial and political subversion. In that area they have no peer.

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    • Replies: @paraglider
    times change and what once worked well no longer works as well or even at all.

    israel is parasitic nation which without the usa acting as their muscleman would not have gotten this far intact. indeed israels continued existence is predicated upon the usa remaining able to enforce tel aviv diktats and covering their ass in a serious fight.

    financial power against thought out military force always loses. the worlds financial capital is in the earliest process of shifting from nyc to shanghai but likely will not be complete until the 2030's. the yuan bond markets are too small for vast sums to park unlike the dollar bond markets are today. as and once this changes the migration will begin. the american industrial base to hollowed to ever recover enough to justify the enormous dollar indebtness or the us dollar as worlds sole reserve money. to appreciate how bad america is in terms of industrial competitiveness compare infrastructure to china and other developing nations.

    we have no high speeds trains none likely, our major airports are a joke, our electrical grid is hanging by a thread, our manufacturing bases still here has not had the capital plowed back into for years now unlike the asian nations so our manufacturing cycles are several technological genrations behind china and others with little hope of catching up.

    our elites have asset stripped this nation to line their own pockets and the bill has come due. why do you think trump won. it was a massive anti establishment vote from people screwed over by the elites. a simple fact the elites STILL can not seem to grasp.

    israel today is being protected by a dying empire.

    israel has no clout in china and never will. indeed jews in asia are a curiosity more than anything else ergo no footholds have ever been established. anti semitism and jewish guilt trips simply won't play in china and or anywhere else in asia.

    israel has until the migration of financial capital to shanghai complete to get it together. once the american empire ends which is underway now israel will have no big brother to cover it ass for its misdeeds.
    , @Unofficial
    They fight with deception too - 9/11 is a perfect example.
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  29. @bob sykes
    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters, maybe only one, and the maritime insurance companies will cancel the insurance on all commercial shipping in the region. That will force ship owners to remove their ships from the region, until the US and its allies can guarantee no further attacks. Note that Iran doesn't need an air force or navy to do this. A few speedboats carrying RPG's and land-based artillery and missiles suffice. Although a few kamikaze attacks on US naval ships would be a good use of Iran's obsolete navy and air force.

    Remember that we were unable to find and destroy Hussein's scuds in the flat, open desert of Iraq. We won't find Iran's artillery and missiles in the Zagros Mountains, either.

    Keeping the oil flowing requires physical control of Iran from its coast inland as far as its anti-ship missiles can reach, which is about 120 miles for the latest version. So, the US and its allies would be forced to occupy Iran with ground troops, with all the bloody-mindedness that implies. It would be Vietnam II or maybe Korea II. The US and its allies lost both Korea I and Vietnam I.

    And Iran has other options, including terrorist attacks in the US against US civilians and politicians and infrastructure (think Mall of the Americas), and inciting Shi'ite unrest throughout the Middle East. Our base in Bahrain is in a Shi'ite country.

    Even if it could be done (zero probability), the time required to subdue Iran is on the order of many months to years, and during much or all of that time the oil flow out of the Persian Gulf would be minimal. We would have another Great Depression, probably deeper and longer than the first. The duration of the war would be greatly increased if Russia and China decided to support Iran. Both countries actively supported North Korea and North Vietnam during those wars.

    A large-scale, long-duration Persian Gulf war would mark the collapse of American hegemony in the world and maybe even the American state.

    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters…

    Wrong! It is the opposite. Short of a Russian nuclear strike on the refinery and port operations of Ras Tanura there is very little that will stop export of oil from the Persian Gulf more than temporarily. And the global supply system has enough flexibility in oil on tankers, in pipelines, in refineries, and in storage that a temporary halt will not be much of a crisis.

    Demand from Asia and Europe exerts too much of a pull.

    If Iran hits a few tankers, what do you think will happen to Iran? The US Navy, special forces, and land-based fighters from the area will straighten that situation out quickly. That’s what the entire US military exists for. The free-flow of Gulf oil.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Well.........
    As "bob sykes" is overly optimistic from Iranian side I believe you are also a bit optimistic from US side.

    Making Hormuz too risky for merchant marine isn't that hard.
    Clearing up that threat wouldn't be that easy.

    Depends on a lot of variables; one of those, of course, is how much risk is acceptable.

    Should things really get bad, for USA, I can envisage simply commandeering those tankers and putting them under military (Navy) command.

    We'll see.
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  30. anon[693] • Disclaimer says:
    @Sean
    They supported the Shia killers of US troops in eastern Iraq, defeated the US and Saudi Arabia in Syria, and are backers of the anti Saudi side in Yemen. All this was in self defence by Iran I suppose, but it has created a consensus that Iran has proved too dangerous when left alone. A state has to know its limitations and Iran does not. Arabs won't help them nor will Sunnis. They have no powerful friends many influential enemies, and a military superpower against them. Russia is not going to help them, judging by how pally Putin and Trump are getting, and the oii price rise will suit Putin. It's the end of the story.

    state has to know its limitations and Iran does not.”

    A truth that both European sidekicks and American public found this reality slapped on their faces one decade plus few years after shock and awe .

    Now there is shock but the awe has left the mind looking for cheap emotion.

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  31. anon[304] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon
    Lies of Blair ( UK ) and Lieberman( USA) have become accepted truth despite proved to be false wild imgamiation of Neocon that Iran was behind the killing . It follow d same path - lie and lie before anyone knows what's being talked about or what's happening to ensure the permanence of the lies on the mind- just like 1991 war, 2003 war or 911- and the public and the troll will come out of the inactive life to support war.

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/07/27/joe-lieberman-is-more-than-an-embarrassment-to-me-as-a-jew/

    Liberman the congenital bastard is still doing same thing he does well, hurting American people .

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  32. @Sir Launcelot Canning
    The issue isn't Israel fighting with their military. It is how they fight through financial and political subversion. In that area they have no peer.

    times change and what once worked well no longer works as well or even at all.

    israel is parasitic nation which without the usa acting as their muscleman would not have gotten this far intact. indeed israels continued existence is predicated upon the usa remaining able to enforce tel aviv diktats and covering their ass in a serious fight.

    financial power against thought out military force always loses. the worlds financial capital is in the earliest process of shifting from nyc to shanghai but likely will not be complete until the 2030′s. the yuan bond markets are too small for vast sums to park unlike the dollar bond markets are today. as and once this changes the migration will begin. the american industrial base to hollowed to ever recover enough to justify the enormous dollar indebtness or the us dollar as worlds sole reserve money. to appreciate how bad america is in terms of industrial competitiveness compare infrastructure to china and other developing nations.

    we have no high speeds trains none likely, our major airports are a joke, our electrical grid is hanging by a thread, our manufacturing bases still here has not had the capital plowed back into for years now unlike the asian nations so our manufacturing cycles are several technological genrations behind china and others with little hope of catching up.

    our elites have asset stripped this nation to line their own pockets and the bill has come due. why do you think trump won. it was a massive anti establishment vote from people screwed over by the elites. a simple fact the elites STILL can not seem to grasp.

    israel today is being protected by a dying empire.

    israel has no clout in china and never will. indeed jews in asia are a curiosity more than anything else ergo no footholds have ever been established. anti semitism and jewish guilt trips simply won’t play in china and or anywhere else in asia.

    israel has until the migration of financial capital to shanghai complete to get it together. once the american empire ends which is underway now israel will have no big brother to cover it ass for its misdeeds.

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  33. @anon
    "Some think Russia and Israel – and the US – have already made a deal to divvy up "

    Interesting possibility. But what China will get ? The developments in Syria do not suggest a possibility of Moscow DC and Tel Aviv on board together .

    Iran is a foe of Israel, because of Israel's strategic goals in Syria and Lebanon.
    How an intact Syria does comport with the triple alliance ? It doesn't .

    Iran was more vulnerable in 2003 , 2006, but Bush didn't attack . Because it was not found to be not cost effective . Since then relations among China Russia Iran Pakistan and Syria have undergone some major positive and powerful changes which are at odds with that of western interests.

    Second the geopolitical advantages Russia want , it has already got - Egypt , Iran, Saudi , Syria and Qatar are already lining up for support help and protection of Russia . So has Turkey.

    So why Russia will share it with US? Iran is not a threat to Russia by any stretch of imagination . Why Russia will want the Iranian become a source of future threat to it ?

    much of the bullshit we read about that says russia and israel have made this deal or that deal is pure tel aviv pysops nonsense.

    israel has thr weakest hand to play and so makes up for its profound weakness and vulnerability by using the media to pretend that negotiations on this poiunt or that point have taken place.

    its very much like the crap cnn and nyt;’s and washington post write about trump. fairy tales they try to sell as wearable whole cloth. its mind game using words to conjure a reality they hope they can put over.

    in effect they use words to attempt to create an opinion in the public mind which if enough people accept as fact becomes fact.

    its all a magic show using misdirection so the audience can not see how truly weak and vulnerable the magician actually is.

    israel is best understood as david and goliath. they act like david pretending arrogance pays off.

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  34. peterAUS says:
    @Johnny Rico

    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters...
     
    Wrong! It is the opposite. Short of a Russian nuclear strike on the refinery and port operations of Ras Tanura there is very little that will stop export of oil from the Persian Gulf more than temporarily. And the global supply system has enough flexibility in oil on tankers, in pipelines, in refineries, and in storage that a temporary halt will not be much of a crisis.

    Demand from Asia and Europe exerts too much of a pull.

    If Iran hits a few tankers, what do you think will happen to Iran? The US Navy, special forces, and land-based fighters from the area will straighten that situation out quickly. That's what the entire US military exists for. The free-flow of Gulf oil.

    Well………
    As “bob sykes” is overly optimistic from Iranian side I believe you are also a bit optimistic from US side.

    Making Hormuz too risky for merchant marine isn’t that hard.
    Clearing up that threat wouldn’t be that easy.

    Depends on a lot of variables; one of those, of course, is how much risk is acceptable.

    Should things really get bad, for USA, I can envisage simply commandeering those tankers and putting them under military (Navy) command.

    We’ll see.

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    I agree. I think I'll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I'm sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, "Gulf of Tonkin."

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don't do it, don't be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don't pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker - these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. "Contained." This is just stuff that is running through my head. I've been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.
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  35. In his Pravda essay on Bolshevism, Ron Unz described how Jacob Schiff was Bolshevism’s major financial backer, ergo the nexus of the destruction that Russia and much of Europe suffered for more than 100 years.

    Others on Unz forum have provided evidence and logic supporting the proposition that primarily Jewish but also non-Jewish financiers provoked and financed the second world war that saw the destruction of Germany and the gelding of France and Italy. As Professor Carolyn Jones has documented, income tax levied against the broad class of American wage-earners, and the payroll deduction system, were engineered by Henry Morgenthau, Jr. in order to pay for WWII, from which Jewish financiers and Israel/zionists were the primary beneficiaries.

    Jewish billionaire Haim Saban was / is a major financial backer of the Clintons, who funneled massive support to Israel.

    The George Bush — both of ‘em — wars in the Middle East were waged at the provocation of Jewish partisans advancing Jewish interests. The Saudis paid for the first of those wars, and Israeli Jewish financiers have deftly figured out how to get someone else, principally Saudis– to fund as well as to fight the wars that they intend to profit from.

    Sheldon Adelson, George Soros and a relatively small gaggle of very wealthy Jewish persons, in addition to (very few) non-Jewish financiers, are the provocateurs of war against Iran. They have been planning this, scheming for this, wetting their tidy-whiteys for nigh on a generation over the prospect of destroying and dominating Iran.

    Anybody see a pattern here?

    It’s not a question of who is pulling Trump’s strings. It’s Jews.

    The question is whether that large category of Jewish people who, Unz readers were assured on the Pravda – Bolshevik article, are “moderates,” are the “good Jews,” the “Jews who are opposed to war,” Jews who are “good Americans” — what are they going to do?

    Will America’s “moderate Jews” rise up in fierce opposition to a war that is being provoked by Schiff-like, Warburg-like, Rothschild-like, Bolshevik-like, Trotsky-like Jews?

    Where are the moderate Jews?

    Because if “moderate” Jews fail to summon the courage to lead the charge against ANY war against Iran, and refuse to act to topple the Jewish regime that is leading US – zionist Israel to war, then they will be signing their death-warrant: Little Jews will become the available, inevitable target against whom an outraged American public will vent their anger.

    —–
    Take your best shot, Sam; accuse me of “threatening to harm Jews.’

    Or redirect your energy to naming and shaming and toppling the Big Jews who are maneuvering toward the destruction of Iran.

    If you’ve got the balls —

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    • Replies: @anon
    "Concerns have been growing for days as Iranian officials have increased verbal threats against shipping in the Persian Gulf and through the choke point at the Strait of Hormuz"
    CNN Politics


    Meanwhile Israel is policing CNN about how to frame the debate in terms of Iranian threat to justify a future conflict and get American public support the war.
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  36. @peterAUS
    Well.........
    As "bob sykes" is overly optimistic from Iranian side I believe you are also a bit optimistic from US side.

    Making Hormuz too risky for merchant marine isn't that hard.
    Clearing up that threat wouldn't be that easy.

    Depends on a lot of variables; one of those, of course, is how much risk is acceptable.

    Should things really get bad, for USA, I can envisage simply commandeering those tankers and putting them under military (Navy) command.

    We'll see.

    I agree. I think I’ll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I’m sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn’t want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, “Gulf of Tonkin.”

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don’t do it, don’t be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don’t pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker – these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. “Contained.” This is just stuff that is running through my head. I’ve been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left.
     
    True.

    Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.
     
    Not….quite.
    I am not so optimistic re mobile land based launchers. Google that stuff. A mobile battery with radar etc with a couple of launchers.
    Go airborne. Radar could even be on a helicopter. A missile can be on a helicopter. Go airborne all the way. Missile and all of the guidance on an airplane. A couple of airplanes. One/two providing acquisition, another one or two launching.
    Mix all that…land based and airborne.
    Long story short, I could see a couple of missiles streaking towards a tanker.
    Introduce convoys; close defense, stuff like that. Etc.
    I could see a hit or two, mostly on the naval ships providing escort.
    But, again, doesn’t, wouldn’t matter. Losing a frigate (damaged, not sunk) while providing escort duties would be an acceptable risk.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.
     
    True.

    I wouldn’t want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.
     
    Depends. I could see, with ease, Quds units with mobile, improvised, launchers.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, “Gulf of Tonkin.”
    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don’t do it, don’t be stupid.
    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.
    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.
    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).
     
    Agree.

    I don’t pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker – these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.
     
    Not so sure about that. Rational actors that is.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. “Contained.” This is just stuff that is running through my head. I’ve been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.
     
    Yelling “wolf” and such.

    I, personally, believe that the conflict is inevitable. Or, better, that the regime in Tehran will be under existential threat.

    Now, you forgot the thing that is the first in my mind when thinking about the conflict.
    Naval mines.
    Not of the type we saw the last time and general public knows about.
    The proper ones. Google that. Delivered so easily, waiting on the sea bottom, listening the acustics/measuring magnetism and pressure, filtering the input and choosing the right target…stuff like that.
    Nothing that Iranian industry can’t produce with own capability (O.K. with a bit of help, especially fine elements of sensors and computers).
    Hard to detect; harder to neutralize.
    Not impossible, of course.
    , @krollchem
    As I previously asked Sean, could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them? Otherwise, blowing hot air is a waste of electrons. Perhaps you could better spend your time playing “call of Duty” or some other US propaganda war game.

    As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering. If you keep up with the news you would find that Turkey, Japan, Russia, India, China, Iraq and even several African countries continue to import Iranian petrochemicals. Furthermore, the new Prime Minister of Pakistan supports reaching out to Iran to initiate the transport of Iranian natural gas to/through Pakistan. Here are a few Iranian connections that should prevent US blocking of Iran oil and gas sales:

    Iraq

    Iraq has increasing Iranian gas imports.
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81683/irans-gas-export-to-iraq-to-reach-50-mcmd

    China

    Because of the Trump trade war, China is switching to Iranian oil. "China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks." Already, one Chinese buyer is said to have already suspended imports of U.S. oil, turning to Iran as one of its alternative sources of crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/18/568465/Iran-oil-exports-China-US-sanctions-yuan-dollar

    China is also reducing Saudi oil imports which will counter the US sanctions on Iran
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/84422/china-to-cut-saudi-crude-imports-by-40-percent
    https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/china_march_crude_oil_imports_2nd_highest_on_record_fuel_exports_hit_high-13-apr-2018-154250-article/

    China has previously held naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman and this may lead to China escorting Iranian tankers to protect them from US military pirates.
    http://www.atimes.com/article/china-iran-conduct-joint-naval-exercises/

    Russia

    Looks like the US will apply sanctions against Russia as well as China for importing Iranian oil.
    https://sputniknews.com/world/201807121066297894-us-sanctions-imports/


    Russia will just ignore the sanction while investing in Iranian oil projects and start the agreed on oil for goods program between Iran and Russia.
    https://www.rt.com/business/424541-russia-iran-oil-supplies/
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/24/569119/Iran-Russia-oil-gas-US-sanctions-JCPOA-

    The bottom line is that the petrodollar will increasingly lose out against the Russian and Chinese gold backed currencies.

    India

    The US is threatening sanctions on India to stop their purchase of Iranian oil and force it to buy US oil instead. The problem is that US oil is mostly light condensate (not actually oil) which isn't a substitute for heavy high-sulfur Iranian crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran

    It has been proposed that India could increase purchase of Saudi and UAE oil but would then face issues with their BRICS partners. This may be the reason that India's oil imports from Iraq rose 31.5 per cent in July. Likewise, "India's Russian crude imports in July more than tripled to 148,600 bpd from a year ago.
    https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/indian-imports-of-iraqi-oil-soar-in-july-1.617887

    India is still weighing the costs of US sanctions and recently upped Iranian oil imports, with the largest refiner being majority owned by Russia’s Rosneft:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil/indian-oil-imports-from-iran-surge-to-highest-since-2016-trade-idUSL4N1TE4HY

    Recently, “India’s media say Iran has started to provide insurance coverage to oil shipments to India”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/27/569416/Iran-giving-ships-insurance-for-India-oil-exports

    Iran and Iraq share oil fields containing 95 billion barrels of crude oil and the Iranian oil could be shipped via Iraqi tankers to countries that might buckle under US sanctions.
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180611-iran-earns-5bn-annually-from-joint-oil-fields-with-iraq/

    Turkey

    Turkey is primarily supplied with petroleum products from Russia and Iran and this will not change.

    Turkey is a major importer of Iranian oil and natural gas
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/iran-keeps-top-position-as-crude-oil-exporter-to-turkey/1160729

    Turkey has stated that it will keep importing Iranian crude oil and gas
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Will-Keep-Importing-Iranian-Crude.html

    Japan

    Japan is firmly opposed to sanctions against importing Iranian oil Iranian imports which “accounted for 5.2% of Japan's total crude imports of 3.19 million b/d”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/25/569215/Iran-oil-exports-Japan-US-sanctions-Asia-China

    African countries

    Iran proposes petroleum swaps for other products with African nations.
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569713/Iran-eyeing-oil-for-gold-barter-plan-with-Africa

    Pakistan

    PM Khan has a historic opportunity to improve the Pakistani economy by fast tracking the Gwadar-Nawabshah (peace) pipeline in order to:
    (1) reduce natural gas shortages in winter;
    (2) acquire transit fees for natural gas supplies to India to improve the economy;
    (3) reduce tensions with India and redirect capital from military expenditures;
    (4) gain economic ties with Iran via energy infrastructure projects;
    (5) further Pakistani integration into the BRI string of pearls;
    (6) reduce US influence while bringing the conflict in Afghanistan to an end and reducing the influence of the Pakistani military and intelligence services;
    (7) reduce future natural gas energy costs compared to the 2015 Pakistani contract import liquefied natural gas from Qatar for 15 years;
    (8) reduce natural gas costs vs the proposed Saudi supported TAPI pipeline.

    Iran has already extending the to the Pakistani border in late 2017 and awaits Pakistani completion of their portion.
    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/09/21/iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline-critical-for-cpecs-energy-needs-envoy/

    This Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project was previously stalled by political pressure, reportedly from an unnamed gulf country, and more importantly due to sanctions on Iran by the US and its UN allies. As a result Iran is asking for damages from Pakistan as part of a take-or-pay contract.
    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pakistan-asks-iran-to-resume-natural-gas-pipeline-negotiations/64088020

    It is well known that India has been running major energy deficits for many years. As of 2016 it is estimated that India imports a great deal of energy:
    natural gas= 21.38 bcm (55% of consumption)
    crude oil =4.88 million bbl/day (85% of consumption)
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

    In addition, Pakistan and Russia have finalized a memorandum of understanding for conducting a feasibility study for a planned undersea gas pipeline project, which could eventually involve Iran and India as well.
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-russia-take-step-ahead-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-project-that-could-involve-india/story-U2Uw5jFgs98zIw05mAQyLJ.html

    In addition, “Pakistan and Russia are strong partners in the field of energy. “The two countries have concluded various proposals in the energy sector including construction of North-South gas pipeline, import of LNG from Russia, installation of air mix plant, establishing of 600 MW combine cycle power plant etc,””
    http://www.iran-daily.com/News/216289.html
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81104/tapi-unlikely-to-challenge-iran-pak-pipeline-project

    The approved 1,100 km long Russian backed North-South gas pipeline will “link liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the port of Karachi in the south of Pakistan with the city of Lahore in the north of the country.” Once again Putin has outmaneuvered the West in pipeline geopolitics with Russia by making Saudi backed TAPI pipeline unnecessary and impractical since US invasion of Afghanistan.
    http://tass.com/economy/1002160

    As a consequence of these agreements Pakistan will contract for the following natural gas supplies:
    North-South gas pipeline = 12.4 bcm/yr
    Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline = 8.7 bcm/yr to an ultimate of 40 bcm/yr
    Qatar LNG = 3.3 bcm (2018-30)

    “It is expected that gas delivered from Iran through the pipeline will cost US$11 per million British thermal unit (MMBTU) compared to $13 per MMBTU which is expected to be price of gas delivered through the proposed Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI) and $18 per MMBTU of imported LNG.[46] (from Qatar)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline

    China may also get involved in the pipeline project as it is already heavily involved in the development of the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

    Expect the US and its allies to sow chaos in Pakistan via terrorists cells and even attempt the assassination of President Khan.

    The Great Game is getting very dangerous…
    , @Mulegino1

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

     

    Which is why "American air power and capabilities" worked such wonders, got Assad overthrown and achieved victory for American proxies Al CIADA and ISIS in Syria. Face it, the Assad government defeated the Israeli and American proxies- and it has severely pained those who take the Hollywood "exceptionalism" at face value. The last time America fought an enemy at rough conventional parity was against the Chinese in Korea, and that ended in a stalemate and a truce.

    Another "cakewalk"? I don't think so.

    Iran is not "contained." If anyone is boxed in, it is that s****y little state currently occupying Palestine, which could not deal with a few hundred or perhaps, thousands of light infantrymen in Southern Lebanon, with no heavy armor, heavy artillery, or naval forces.

    The days of effortless American power projection are over, done, and completed. Sure, we can still pick on some weak country like Honduras or even Venezuela to bully, but Iran is a bridge too far.
    , @krollchem
    Are you aware that the character "johnny Rico" was from the anti-Fascist movie "Starship Troopers"
    https://www.interviewmagazine.com/film/starship-troopers-fascist-satire-coming-true
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  37. Mr. Margolis, Maritime insurers have never simply ‘adjusted rates’ for wartime transit. They CANNOT & will not be held accountable for anything war related. ALL of them, from Lloyds on down have Force Mejeur clauses in all their contracts for this reason. Last time and every other time they started shooting in the Persian Gulf fishbowl all the insurers enacted the clause and all of the tankers sailed directly into port. Why would that be different this time? Has the MIC cut a deal with Lloyds? ‘Closing’ the strait would be easy as long as insurers control the purse strings. When it comes down to the big money, even the MIC/Zionists bow down. Unless there’s a fundamental change in the world order….

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  38. Shorter Margolis:

    Iran is unable to defend itself so why not destroy it.

    Iranian allies are Russia and China.

    American allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia.

    Margolis is a feckless cunt!

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  39. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:
    @SolontoCroesus
    In his Pravda essay on Bolshevism, Ron Unz described how Jacob Schiff was Bolshevism's major financial backer, ergo the nexus of the destruction that Russia and much of Europe suffered for more than 100 years.

    Others on Unz forum have provided evidence and logic supporting the proposition that primarily Jewish but also non-Jewish financiers provoked and financed the second world war that saw the destruction of Germany and the gelding of France and Italy. As Professor Carolyn Jones has documented, income tax levied against the broad class of American wage-earners, and the payroll deduction system, were engineered by Henry Morgenthau, Jr. in order to pay for WWII, from which Jewish financiers and Israel/zionists were the primary beneficiaries.

    Jewish billionaire Haim Saban was / is a major financial backer of the Clintons, who funneled massive support to Israel.

    The George Bush -- both of 'em -- wars in the Middle East were waged at the provocation of Jewish partisans advancing Jewish interests. The Saudis paid for the first of those wars, and Israeli Jewish financiers have deftly figured out how to get someone else, principally Saudis-- to fund as well as to fight the wars that they intend to profit from.

    Sheldon Adelson, George Soros and a relatively small gaggle of very wealthy Jewish persons, in addition to (very few) non-Jewish financiers, are the provocateurs of war against Iran. They have been planning this, scheming for this, wetting their tidy-whiteys for nigh on a generation over the prospect of destroying and dominating Iran.


    Anybody see a pattern here?

    It's not a question of who is pulling Trump's strings. It's Jews.

    The question is whether that large category of Jewish people who, Unz readers were assured on the Pravda - Bolshevik article, are "moderates," are the "good Jews," the "Jews who are opposed to war," Jews who are "good Americans" -- what are they going to do?

    Will America's "moderate Jews" rise up in fierce opposition to a war that is being provoked by Schiff-like, Warburg-like, Rothschild-like, Bolshevik-like, Trotsky-like Jews?

    Where are the moderate Jews?

    Because if "moderate" Jews fail to summon the courage to lead the charge against ANY war against Iran, and refuse to act to topple the Jewish regime that is leading US - zionist Israel to war, then they will be signing their death-warrant: Little Jews will become the available, inevitable target against whom an outraged American public will vent their anger.

    -----
    Take your best shot, Sam; accuse me of "threatening to harm Jews.'

    Or redirect your energy to naming and shaming and toppling the Big Jews who are maneuvering toward the destruction of Iran.

    If you've got the balls ---

    “Concerns have been growing for days as Iranian officials have increased verbal threats against shipping in the Persian Gulf and through the choke point at the Strait of Hormuz”
    CNN Politics

    Meanwhile Israel is policing CNN about how to frame the debate in terms of Iranian threat to justify a future conflict and get American public support the war.

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  40. peterAUS says:
    @Johnny Rico
    I agree. I think I'll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I'm sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, "Gulf of Tonkin."

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don't do it, don't be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don't pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker - these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. "Contained." This is just stuff that is running through my head. I've been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left.

    True.

    Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Not….quite.
    I am not so optimistic re mobile land based launchers. Google that stuff. A mobile battery with radar etc with a couple of launchers.
    Go airborne. Radar could even be on a helicopter. A missile can be on a helicopter. Go airborne all the way. Missile and all of the guidance on an airplane. A couple of airplanes. One/two providing acquisition, another one or two launching.
    Mix all that…land based and airborne.
    Long story short, I could see a couple of missiles streaking towards a tanker.
    Introduce convoys; close defense, stuff like that. Etc.
    I could see a hit or two, mostly on the naval ships providing escort.
    But, again, doesn’t, wouldn’t matter. Losing a frigate (damaged, not sunk) while providing escort duties would be an acceptable risk.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    True.

    I wouldn’t want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    Depends. I could see, with ease, Quds units with mobile, improvised, launchers.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, “Gulf of Tonkin.”
    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don’t do it, don’t be stupid.
    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.
    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.
    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    Agree.

    I don’t pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker – these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    Not so sure about that. Rational actors that is.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. “Contained.” This is just stuff that is running through my head. I’ve been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

    Yelling “wolf” and such.

    I, personally, believe that the conflict is inevitable. Or, better, that the regime in Tehran will be under existential threat.

    Now, you forgot the thing that is the first in my mind when thinking about the conflict.
    Naval mines.
    Not of the type we saw the last time and general public knows about.
    The proper ones. Google that. Delivered so easily, waiting on the sea bottom, listening the acustics/measuring magnetism and pressure, filtering the input and choosing the right target…stuff like that.
    Nothing that Iranian industry can’t produce with own capability (O.K. with a bit of help, especially fine elements of sensors and computers).
    Hard to detect; harder to neutralize.
    Not impossible, of course.

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  41. krollchem says:
    @Johnny Rico
    I agree. I think I'll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I'm sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, "Gulf of Tonkin."

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don't do it, don't be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don't pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker - these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. "Contained." This is just stuff that is running through my head. I've been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

    As I previously asked Sean, could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them? Otherwise, blowing hot air is a waste of electrons. Perhaps you could better spend your time playing “call of Duty” or some other US propaganda war game.

    As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering. If you keep up with the news you would find that Turkey, Japan, Russia, India, China, Iraq and even several African countries continue to import Iranian petrochemicals. Furthermore, the new Prime Minister of Pakistan supports reaching out to Iran to initiate the transport of Iranian natural gas to/through Pakistan. Here are a few Iranian connections that should prevent US blocking of Iran oil and gas sales:

    Iraq

    Iraq has increasing Iranian gas imports.

    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81683/irans-gas-export-to-iraq-to-reach-50-mcmd

    China

    Because of the Trump trade war, China is switching to Iranian oil. “China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks.” Already, one Chinese buyer is said to have already suspended imports of U.S. oil, turning to Iran as one of its alternative sources of crude.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/18/568465/Iran-oil-exports-China-US-sanctions-yuan-dollar

    China is also reducing Saudi oil imports which will counter the US sanctions on Iran

    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/84422/china-to-cut-saudi-crude-imports-by-40-percent

    https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/china_march_crude_oil_imports_2nd_highest_on_record_fuel_exports_hit_high-13-apr-2018-154250-article/

    China has previously held naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman and this may lead to China escorting Iranian tankers to protect them from US military pirates.

    http://www.atimes.com/article/china-iran-conduct-joint-naval-exercises/

    Russia

    Looks like the US will apply sanctions against Russia as well as China for importing Iranian oil.

    https://sputniknews.com/world/201807121066297894-us-sanctions-imports/

    Russia will just ignore the sanction while investing in Iranian oil projects and start the agreed on oil for goods program between Iran and Russia.

    https://www.rt.com/business/424541-russia-iran-oil-supplies/

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/24/569119/Iran-Russia-oil-gas-US-sanctions-JCPOA-

    The bottom line is that the petrodollar will increasingly lose out against the Russian and Chinese gold backed currencies.

    India

    The US is threatening sanctions on India to stop their purchase of Iranian oil and force it to buy US oil instead. The problem is that US oil is mostly light condensate (not actually oil) which isn’t a substitute for heavy high-sulfur Iranian crude.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran

    It has been proposed that India could increase purchase of Saudi and UAE oil but would then face issues with their BRICS partners. This may be the reason that India’s oil imports from Iraq rose 31.5 per cent in July. Likewise, “India’s Russian crude imports in July more than tripled to 148,600 bpd from a year ago.

    https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/indian-imports-of-iraqi-oil-soar-in-july-1.617887

    India is still weighing the costs of US sanctions and recently upped Iranian oil imports, with the largest refiner being majority owned by Russia’s Rosneft:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil/indian-oil-imports-from-iran-surge-to-highest-since-2016-trade-idUSL4N1TE4HY

    Recently, “India’s media say Iran has started to provide insurance coverage to oil shipments to India”

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/27/569416/Iran-giving-ships-insurance-for-India-oil-exports

    Iran and Iraq share oil fields containing 95 billion barrels of crude oil and the Iranian oil could be shipped via Iraqi tankers to countries that might buckle under US sanctions.

    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180611-iran-earns-5bn-annually-from-joint-oil-fields-with-iraq/

    Turkey

    Turkey is primarily supplied with petroleum products from Russia and Iran and this will not change.

    Turkey is a major importer of Iranian oil and natural gas

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/iran-keeps-top-position-as-crude-oil-exporter-to-turkey/1160729

    Turkey has stated that it will keep importing Iranian crude oil and gas

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Will-Keep-Importing-Iranian-Crude.html

    Japan

    Japan is firmly opposed to sanctions against importing Iranian oil Iranian imports which “accounted for 5.2% of Japan’s total crude imports of 3.19 million b/d”

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/25/569215/Iran-oil-exports-Japan-US-sanctions-Asia-China

    African countries

    Iran proposes petroleum swaps for other products with African nations.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569713/Iran-eyeing-oil-for-gold-barter-plan-with-Africa

    Pakistan

    PM Khan has a historic opportunity to improve the Pakistani economy by fast tracking the Gwadar-Nawabshah (peace) pipeline in order to:
    (1) reduce natural gas shortages in winter;
    (2) acquire transit fees for natural gas supplies to India to improve the economy;
    (3) reduce tensions with India and redirect capital from military expenditures;
    (4) gain economic ties with Iran via energy infrastructure projects;
    (5) further Pakistani integration into the BRI string of pearls;
    (6) reduce US influence while bringing the conflict in Afghanistan to an end and reducing the influence of the Pakistani military and intelligence services;
    (7) reduce future natural gas energy costs compared to the 2015 Pakistani contract import liquefied natural gas from Qatar for 15 years;
    (8) reduce natural gas costs vs the proposed Saudi supported TAPI pipeline.

    Iran has already extending the to the Pakistani border in late 2017 and awaits Pakistani completion of their portion.

    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/09/21/iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline-critical-for-cpecs-energy-needs-envoy/

    This Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project was previously stalled by political pressure, reportedly from an unnamed gulf country, and more importantly due to sanctions on Iran by the US and its UN allies. As a result Iran is asking for damages from Pakistan as part of a take-or-pay contract.

    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pakistan-asks-iran-to-resume-natural-gas-pipeline-negotiations/64088020

    It is well known that India has been running major energy deficits for many years. As of 2016 it is estimated that India imports a great deal of energy:
    natural gas= 21.38 bcm (55% of consumption)
    crude oil =4.88 million bbl/day (85% of consumption)

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

    In addition, Pakistan and Russia have finalized a memorandum of understanding for conducting a feasibility study for a planned undersea gas pipeline project, which could eventually involve Iran and India as well.

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-russia-take-step-ahead-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-project-that-could-involve-india/story-U2Uw5jFgs98zIw05mAQyLJ.html

    In addition, “Pakistan and Russia are strong partners in the field of energy. “The two countries have concluded various proposals in the energy sector including construction of North-South gas pipeline, import of LNG from Russia, installation of air mix plant, establishing of 600 MW combine cycle power plant etc,””

    http://www.iran-daily.com/News/216289.html

    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81104/tapi-unlikely-to-challenge-iran-pak-pipeline-project

    The approved 1,100 km long Russian backed North-South gas pipeline will “link liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the port of Karachi in the south of Pakistan with the city of Lahore in the north of the country.” Once again Putin has outmaneuvered the West in pipeline geopolitics with Russia by making Saudi backed TAPI pipeline unnecessary and impractical since US invasion of Afghanistan.

    http://tass.com/economy/1002160

    As a consequence of these agreements Pakistan will contract for the following natural gas supplies:
    North-South gas pipeline = 12.4 bcm/yr
    Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline = 8.7 bcm/yr to an ultimate of 40 bcm/yr
    Qatar LNG = 3.3 bcm (2018-30)

    “It is expected that gas delivered from Iran through the pipeline will cost US$11 per million British thermal unit (MMBTU) compared to $13 per MMBTU which is expected to be price of gas delivered through the proposed Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI) and $18 per MMBTU of imported LNG.[46] (from Qatar)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline

    China may also get involved in the pipeline project as it is already heavily involved in the development of the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

    Expect the US and its allies to sow chaos in Pakistan via terrorists cells and even attempt the assassination of President Khan.

    The Great Game is getting very dangerous…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Yeah. I don't know what your point is.

    To take one example from your post, what do Iran's swaps of products from African nations have to do with Iran's air defense capabilities?

    , @peterAUS

    ...... could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them?...
     
    Deep you say?
    Maybe I could try. Will need to work with some other people. Doable.

    How about a deal?
    One month, $ 50 000.
    We could hammer details over Tor and such if you wish.

    Failing that, how about you provide a deep analysis of US and allies offensive capabilities?
    Here, for free. Next post, preferably.
    See my point?
    Maybe....

    As for this:


    ....As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering...
     
    Hehehe....you slipped a bit.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  42. Eighthman says:

    It seems to me that the critical point is what can Iran do in response that’s cheap and relatively unsophisticated. Two things come to mind:

    First, mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely. Cue the Great Depression…..

    Second, could Hezbollah go all in on attacking Israel with vast numbers of rockets? I think so. Trying to shoot them all down will get extremely expensive and impractical.

    Take a good look at Trumps’ recent ‘anywhere, anytime’ remarks. I conclude that Iran has called his bluff and that sanctions are due to fail.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Eighthman
    Oh, and one more point: I'm not sure the US currently has enough capacity to run a long bombing campaign. There have been questions about producing enough missiles and bombs and bomb making materials. Even some of the chemicals used therein are imported from China.
    , @peterAUS

    ... mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely.
     
    Not...quite.

    Mines that could be effective aren't cheap, can't be produced in large numbers and can't be spread again and again.

    And they can be dealt with. Not easy, but can.

    But, I do agree. In any conflict I see that as a major Iranian weapon.

    Could be wrong.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  43. Eighthman says:
    @Eighthman
    It seems to me that the critical point is what can Iran do in response that's cheap and relatively unsophisticated. Two things come to mind:

    First, mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely. Cue the Great Depression.....

    Second, could Hezbollah go all in on attacking Israel with vast numbers of rockets? I think so. Trying to shoot them all down will get extremely expensive and impractical.

    Take a good look at Trumps' recent 'anywhere, anytime' remarks. I conclude that Iran has called his bluff and that sanctions are due to fail.

    Oh, and one more point: I’m not sure the US currently has enough capacity to run a long bombing campaign. There have been questions about producing enough missiles and bombs and bomb making materials. Even some of the chemicals used therein are imported from China.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  44. @krollchem
    As I previously asked Sean, could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them? Otherwise, blowing hot air is a waste of electrons. Perhaps you could better spend your time playing “call of Duty” or some other US propaganda war game.

    As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering. If you keep up with the news you would find that Turkey, Japan, Russia, India, China, Iraq and even several African countries continue to import Iranian petrochemicals. Furthermore, the new Prime Minister of Pakistan supports reaching out to Iran to initiate the transport of Iranian natural gas to/through Pakistan. Here are a few Iranian connections that should prevent US blocking of Iran oil and gas sales:

    Iraq

    Iraq has increasing Iranian gas imports.
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81683/irans-gas-export-to-iraq-to-reach-50-mcmd

    China

    Because of the Trump trade war, China is switching to Iranian oil. "China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks." Already, one Chinese buyer is said to have already suspended imports of U.S. oil, turning to Iran as one of its alternative sources of crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/18/568465/Iran-oil-exports-China-US-sanctions-yuan-dollar

    China is also reducing Saudi oil imports which will counter the US sanctions on Iran
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/84422/china-to-cut-saudi-crude-imports-by-40-percent
    https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/china_march_crude_oil_imports_2nd_highest_on_record_fuel_exports_hit_high-13-apr-2018-154250-article/

    China has previously held naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman and this may lead to China escorting Iranian tankers to protect them from US military pirates.
    http://www.atimes.com/article/china-iran-conduct-joint-naval-exercises/

    Russia

    Looks like the US will apply sanctions against Russia as well as China for importing Iranian oil.
    https://sputniknews.com/world/201807121066297894-us-sanctions-imports/


    Russia will just ignore the sanction while investing in Iranian oil projects and start the agreed on oil for goods program between Iran and Russia.
    https://www.rt.com/business/424541-russia-iran-oil-supplies/
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/24/569119/Iran-Russia-oil-gas-US-sanctions-JCPOA-

    The bottom line is that the petrodollar will increasingly lose out against the Russian and Chinese gold backed currencies.

    India

    The US is threatening sanctions on India to stop their purchase of Iranian oil and force it to buy US oil instead. The problem is that US oil is mostly light condensate (not actually oil) which isn't a substitute for heavy high-sulfur Iranian crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran

    It has been proposed that India could increase purchase of Saudi and UAE oil but would then face issues with their BRICS partners. This may be the reason that India's oil imports from Iraq rose 31.5 per cent in July. Likewise, "India's Russian crude imports in July more than tripled to 148,600 bpd from a year ago.
    https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/indian-imports-of-iraqi-oil-soar-in-july-1.617887

    India is still weighing the costs of US sanctions and recently upped Iranian oil imports, with the largest refiner being majority owned by Russia’s Rosneft:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil/indian-oil-imports-from-iran-surge-to-highest-since-2016-trade-idUSL4N1TE4HY

    Recently, “India’s media say Iran has started to provide insurance coverage to oil shipments to India”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/27/569416/Iran-giving-ships-insurance-for-India-oil-exports

    Iran and Iraq share oil fields containing 95 billion barrels of crude oil and the Iranian oil could be shipped via Iraqi tankers to countries that might buckle under US sanctions.
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180611-iran-earns-5bn-annually-from-joint-oil-fields-with-iraq/

    Turkey

    Turkey is primarily supplied with petroleum products from Russia and Iran and this will not change.

    Turkey is a major importer of Iranian oil and natural gas
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/iran-keeps-top-position-as-crude-oil-exporter-to-turkey/1160729

    Turkey has stated that it will keep importing Iranian crude oil and gas
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Will-Keep-Importing-Iranian-Crude.html

    Japan

    Japan is firmly opposed to sanctions against importing Iranian oil Iranian imports which “accounted for 5.2% of Japan's total crude imports of 3.19 million b/d”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/25/569215/Iran-oil-exports-Japan-US-sanctions-Asia-China

    African countries

    Iran proposes petroleum swaps for other products with African nations.
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569713/Iran-eyeing-oil-for-gold-barter-plan-with-Africa

    Pakistan

    PM Khan has a historic opportunity to improve the Pakistani economy by fast tracking the Gwadar-Nawabshah (peace) pipeline in order to:
    (1) reduce natural gas shortages in winter;
    (2) acquire transit fees for natural gas supplies to India to improve the economy;
    (3) reduce tensions with India and redirect capital from military expenditures;
    (4) gain economic ties with Iran via energy infrastructure projects;
    (5) further Pakistani integration into the BRI string of pearls;
    (6) reduce US influence while bringing the conflict in Afghanistan to an end and reducing the influence of the Pakistani military and intelligence services;
    (7) reduce future natural gas energy costs compared to the 2015 Pakistani contract import liquefied natural gas from Qatar for 15 years;
    (8) reduce natural gas costs vs the proposed Saudi supported TAPI pipeline.

    Iran has already extending the to the Pakistani border in late 2017 and awaits Pakistani completion of their portion.
    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/09/21/iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline-critical-for-cpecs-energy-needs-envoy/

    This Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project was previously stalled by political pressure, reportedly from an unnamed gulf country, and more importantly due to sanctions on Iran by the US and its UN allies. As a result Iran is asking for damages from Pakistan as part of a take-or-pay contract.
    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pakistan-asks-iran-to-resume-natural-gas-pipeline-negotiations/64088020

    It is well known that India has been running major energy deficits for many years. As of 2016 it is estimated that India imports a great deal of energy:
    natural gas= 21.38 bcm (55% of consumption)
    crude oil =4.88 million bbl/day (85% of consumption)
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

    In addition, Pakistan and Russia have finalized a memorandum of understanding for conducting a feasibility study for a planned undersea gas pipeline project, which could eventually involve Iran and India as well.
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-russia-take-step-ahead-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-project-that-could-involve-india/story-U2Uw5jFgs98zIw05mAQyLJ.html

    In addition, “Pakistan and Russia are strong partners in the field of energy. “The two countries have concluded various proposals in the energy sector including construction of North-South gas pipeline, import of LNG from Russia, installation of air mix plant, establishing of 600 MW combine cycle power plant etc,””
    http://www.iran-daily.com/News/216289.html
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81104/tapi-unlikely-to-challenge-iran-pak-pipeline-project

    The approved 1,100 km long Russian backed North-South gas pipeline will “link liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the port of Karachi in the south of Pakistan with the city of Lahore in the north of the country.” Once again Putin has outmaneuvered the West in pipeline geopolitics with Russia by making Saudi backed TAPI pipeline unnecessary and impractical since US invasion of Afghanistan.
    http://tass.com/economy/1002160

    As a consequence of these agreements Pakistan will contract for the following natural gas supplies:
    North-South gas pipeline = 12.4 bcm/yr
    Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline = 8.7 bcm/yr to an ultimate of 40 bcm/yr
    Qatar LNG = 3.3 bcm (2018-30)

    “It is expected that gas delivered from Iran through the pipeline will cost US$11 per million British thermal unit (MMBTU) compared to $13 per MMBTU which is expected to be price of gas delivered through the proposed Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI) and $18 per MMBTU of imported LNG.[46] (from Qatar)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline

    China may also get involved in the pipeline project as it is already heavily involved in the development of the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

    Expect the US and its allies to sow chaos in Pakistan via terrorists cells and even attempt the assassination of President Khan.

    The Great Game is getting very dangerous…

    Yeah. I don’t know what your point is.

    To take one example from your post, what do Iran’s swaps of products from African nations have to do with Iran’s air defense capabilities?

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz. The detailed commentary on Iran's options against US sanction is meant to continue the flow of Iranian oil. When US sanctions fail the US will impose a blockade or start attacking Iranian assets with the Saudi terrorist state help. At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.

    As for the bluster about how powerful the US military is see the recent war games:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/i-fought-a-war-against-iran-and-it-ended-badly/

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-parsi-war-with-iran_us_5abd46fde4b055e50acc2e82

    I do not think you know anything about weapons systems and their capabilities.
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  45. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    As I previously asked Sean, could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them? Otherwise, blowing hot air is a waste of electrons. Perhaps you could better spend your time playing “call of Duty” or some other US propaganda war game.

    As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering. If you keep up with the news you would find that Turkey, Japan, Russia, India, China, Iraq and even several African countries continue to import Iranian petrochemicals. Furthermore, the new Prime Minister of Pakistan supports reaching out to Iran to initiate the transport of Iranian natural gas to/through Pakistan. Here are a few Iranian connections that should prevent US blocking of Iran oil and gas sales:

    Iraq

    Iraq has increasing Iranian gas imports.
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81683/irans-gas-export-to-iraq-to-reach-50-mcmd

    China

    Because of the Trump trade war, China is switching to Iranian oil. "China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks." Already, one Chinese buyer is said to have already suspended imports of U.S. oil, turning to Iran as one of its alternative sources of crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/18/568465/Iran-oil-exports-China-US-sanctions-yuan-dollar

    China is also reducing Saudi oil imports which will counter the US sanctions on Iran
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/84422/china-to-cut-saudi-crude-imports-by-40-percent
    https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/china_march_crude_oil_imports_2nd_highest_on_record_fuel_exports_hit_high-13-apr-2018-154250-article/

    China has previously held naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman and this may lead to China escorting Iranian tankers to protect them from US military pirates.
    http://www.atimes.com/article/china-iran-conduct-joint-naval-exercises/

    Russia

    Looks like the US will apply sanctions against Russia as well as China for importing Iranian oil.
    https://sputniknews.com/world/201807121066297894-us-sanctions-imports/


    Russia will just ignore the sanction while investing in Iranian oil projects and start the agreed on oil for goods program between Iran and Russia.
    https://www.rt.com/business/424541-russia-iran-oil-supplies/
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/24/569119/Iran-Russia-oil-gas-US-sanctions-JCPOA-

    The bottom line is that the petrodollar will increasingly lose out against the Russian and Chinese gold backed currencies.

    India

    The US is threatening sanctions on India to stop their purchase of Iranian oil and force it to buy US oil instead. The problem is that US oil is mostly light condensate (not actually oil) which isn't a substitute for heavy high-sulfur Iranian crude.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-pressing-big-oil-importers-to-stop-buying-from-iran

    It has been proposed that India could increase purchase of Saudi and UAE oil but would then face issues with their BRICS partners. This may be the reason that India's oil imports from Iraq rose 31.5 per cent in July. Likewise, "India's Russian crude imports in July more than tripled to 148,600 bpd from a year ago.
    https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/indian-imports-of-iraqi-oil-soar-in-july-1.617887

    India is still weighing the costs of US sanctions and recently upped Iranian oil imports, with the largest refiner being majority owned by Russia’s Rosneft:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil/indian-oil-imports-from-iran-surge-to-highest-since-2016-trade-idUSL4N1TE4HY

    Recently, “India’s media say Iran has started to provide insurance coverage to oil shipments to India”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/27/569416/Iran-giving-ships-insurance-for-India-oil-exports

    Iran and Iraq share oil fields containing 95 billion barrels of crude oil and the Iranian oil could be shipped via Iraqi tankers to countries that might buckle under US sanctions.
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180611-iran-earns-5bn-annually-from-joint-oil-fields-with-iraq/

    Turkey

    Turkey is primarily supplied with petroleum products from Russia and Iran and this will not change.

    Turkey is a major importer of Iranian oil and natural gas
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/iran-keeps-top-position-as-crude-oil-exporter-to-turkey/1160729

    Turkey has stated that it will keep importing Iranian crude oil and gas
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Will-Keep-Importing-Iranian-Crude.html

    Japan

    Japan is firmly opposed to sanctions against importing Iranian oil Iranian imports which “accounted for 5.2% of Japan's total crude imports of 3.19 million b/d”
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/25/569215/Iran-oil-exports-Japan-US-sanctions-Asia-China

    African countries

    Iran proposes petroleum swaps for other products with African nations.
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569713/Iran-eyeing-oil-for-gold-barter-plan-with-Africa

    Pakistan

    PM Khan has a historic opportunity to improve the Pakistani economy by fast tracking the Gwadar-Nawabshah (peace) pipeline in order to:
    (1) reduce natural gas shortages in winter;
    (2) acquire transit fees for natural gas supplies to India to improve the economy;
    (3) reduce tensions with India and redirect capital from military expenditures;
    (4) gain economic ties with Iran via energy infrastructure projects;
    (5) further Pakistani integration into the BRI string of pearls;
    (6) reduce US influence while bringing the conflict in Afghanistan to an end and reducing the influence of the Pakistani military and intelligence services;
    (7) reduce future natural gas energy costs compared to the 2015 Pakistani contract import liquefied natural gas from Qatar for 15 years;
    (8) reduce natural gas costs vs the proposed Saudi supported TAPI pipeline.

    Iran has already extending the to the Pakistani border in late 2017 and awaits Pakistani completion of their portion.
    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/09/21/iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline-critical-for-cpecs-energy-needs-envoy/

    This Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Project was previously stalled by political pressure, reportedly from an unnamed gulf country, and more importantly due to sanctions on Iran by the US and its UN allies. As a result Iran is asking for damages from Pakistan as part of a take-or-pay contract.
    https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/pakistan-asks-iran-to-resume-natural-gas-pipeline-negotiations/64088020

    It is well known that India has been running major energy deficits for many years. As of 2016 it is estimated that India imports a great deal of energy:
    natural gas= 21.38 bcm (55% of consumption)
    crude oil =4.88 million bbl/day (85% of consumption)
    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

    In addition, Pakistan and Russia have finalized a memorandum of understanding for conducting a feasibility study for a planned undersea gas pipeline project, which could eventually involve Iran and India as well.
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-russia-take-step-ahead-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-project-that-could-involve-india/story-U2Uw5jFgs98zIw05mAQyLJ.html

    In addition, “Pakistan and Russia are strong partners in the field of energy. “The two countries have concluded various proposals in the energy sector including construction of North-South gas pipeline, import of LNG from Russia, installation of air mix plant, establishing of 600 MW combine cycle power plant etc,””
    http://www.iran-daily.com/News/216289.html
    https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/81104/tapi-unlikely-to-challenge-iran-pak-pipeline-project

    The approved 1,100 km long Russian backed North-South gas pipeline will “link liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the port of Karachi in the south of Pakistan with the city of Lahore in the north of the country.” Once again Putin has outmaneuvered the West in pipeline geopolitics with Russia by making Saudi backed TAPI pipeline unnecessary and impractical since US invasion of Afghanistan.
    http://tass.com/economy/1002160

    As a consequence of these agreements Pakistan will contract for the following natural gas supplies:
    North-South gas pipeline = 12.4 bcm/yr
    Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline = 8.7 bcm/yr to an ultimate of 40 bcm/yr
    Qatar LNG = 3.3 bcm (2018-30)

    “It is expected that gas delivered from Iran through the pipeline will cost US$11 per million British thermal unit (MMBTU) compared to $13 per MMBTU which is expected to be price of gas delivered through the proposed Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI) and $18 per MMBTU of imported LNG.[46] (from Qatar)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_gas_pipeline

    China may also get involved in the pipeline project as it is already heavily involved in the development of the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

    Expect the US and its allies to sow chaos in Pakistan via terrorists cells and even attempt the assassination of President Khan.

    The Great Game is getting very dangerous…

    …… could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them?…

    Deep you say?
    Maybe I could try. Will need to work with some other people. Doable.

    How about a deal?
    One month, $ 50 000.
    We could hammer details over Tor and such if you wish.

    Failing that, how about you provide a deep analysis of US and allies offensive capabilities?
    Here, for free. Next post, preferably.
    See my point?
    Maybe….

    As for this:

    ….As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering…

    Hehehe….you slipped a bit.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Defense lies in not allowing USA what it wants . Another line of defense is to go after the master that controls the born again slave( or bonded labor known as America )
    , @krollchem
    This site serves as a vehicle for learning. You make a lot of comments at this site but are very short on documentation. Could you try to do a little research and share it with the rest of us?

    Do you even know the capabilities of the Tor-M2, S-300 or any of the other Iranian defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities.

    See comment #48 for some war game studies in regards to the inflated US military might against Iran.

    Please also explain how the US has been fighting in Afghanistan for 17 years with no end in sight.

    The hehehe comment is very childish.

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war. How are your nuclear war survival skills?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  46. peterAUS says:
    @Eighthman
    It seems to me that the critical point is what can Iran do in response that's cheap and relatively unsophisticated. Two things come to mind:

    First, mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely. Cue the Great Depression.....

    Second, could Hezbollah go all in on attacking Israel with vast numbers of rockets? I think so. Trying to shoot them all down will get extremely expensive and impractical.

    Take a good look at Trumps' recent 'anywhere, anytime' remarks. I conclude that Iran has called his bluff and that sanctions are due to fail.

    … mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely.

    Not…quite.

    Mines that could be effective aren’t cheap, can’t be produced in large numbers and can’t be spread again and again.

    And they can be dealt with. Not easy, but can.

    But, I do agree. In any conflict I see that as a major Iranian weapon.

    Could be wrong.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Eighthman
    They don't have to be sophisticated, just persistent, day after day, month after month. And the target would be oil tankers, not the US Navy.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  47. Eighthman says:
    @peterAUS

    ... mines are cheap and can be produced in large numbers and can be spread in the Gulf again and again, indefinitely.
     
    Not...quite.

    Mines that could be effective aren't cheap, can't be produced in large numbers and can't be spread again and again.

    And they can be dealt with. Not easy, but can.

    But, I do agree. In any conflict I see that as a major Iranian weapon.

    Could be wrong.

    They don’t have to be sophisticated, just persistent, day after day, month after month. And the target would be oil tankers, not the US Navy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Ah....got you wrong. Apologies.
    I was hoping for a bit of, say, informed conversation.
    If I were you I'd try to understand:
    -How would those mines get delivered?
    -How would those mines target just tankers and not the Navy ships protecting them (convoy thing, pickets, COUNTERMEASURES.....stuff like that). The same applies to missiles. Or planes. Or suicide fast crafts. Emphasis on "suicide".

    Having mentioned that (informed), handle krollchem does have a point here.

    When started posting on this site I hoped that the combination of free speech and knowledgeable people could produce quality insights, even sort of predict likely future events.
    I was wrong, of course. A crude mixture of agendas, cooks and healthy dose of sociopaths can't allow that. Add plenty of clueless fan boys/girls too and here we are.

    Now, of course we here don't have access to crucial intelligence, can't play wargames and overall spend time and energy to do it right.
    Still, I'd always prefer reading an US Admiral (retired) HERE to any, ahm, post on MSM, regardless by whom.
    Actually....a senior NCO would be even better.

    For example, this thing.....naval mines. It's been a while I really took a good look at it. But, even when I did that the last time it was a formidable weapon.

    Some other things too, but the above feels the most interesting.
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  48. peterAUS says:
    @Eighthman
    They don't have to be sophisticated, just persistent, day after day, month after month. And the target would be oil tankers, not the US Navy.

    Ah….got you wrong. Apologies.
    I was hoping for a bit of, say, informed conversation.
    If I were you I’d try to understand:
    -How would those mines get delivered?
    -How would those mines target just tankers and not the Navy ships protecting them (convoy thing, pickets, COUNTERMEASURES…..stuff like that). The same applies to missiles. Or planes. Or suicide fast crafts. Emphasis on “suicide”.

    Having mentioned that (informed), handle krollchem does have a point here.

    When started posting on this site I hoped that the combination of free speech and knowledgeable people could produce quality insights, even sort of predict likely future events.
    I was wrong, of course. A crude mixture of agendas, cooks and healthy dose of sociopaths can’t allow that. Add plenty of clueless fan boys/girls too and here we are.

    Now, of course we here don’t have access to crucial intelligence, can’t play wargames and overall spend time and energy to do it right.
    Still, I’d always prefer reading an US Admiral (retired) HERE to any, ahm, post on MSM, regardless by whom.
    Actually….a senior NCO would be even better.

    For example, this thing…..naval mines. It’s been a while I really took a good look at it. But, even when I did that the last time it was a formidable weapon.

    Some other things too, but the above feels the most interesting.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Eighthman
    I can't reply to that. It makes no sense.
    , @Den Lille Abe
    And more to the fact: We have not got a clue really on Iran' defensive capabilities..
    We do know, they dont give up and are apple to accept huge numbers of dead.
    My guess would be their streng lies in mostly defensive capabilities; missiles and lots of them.
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  49. krollchem says:
    @Johnny Rico
    Yeah. I don't know what your point is.

    To take one example from your post, what do Iran's swaps of products from African nations have to do with Iran's air defense capabilities?

    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz. The detailed commentary on Iran’s options against US sanction is meant to continue the flow of Iranian oil. When US sanctions fail the US will impose a blockade or start attacking Iranian assets with the Saudi terrorist state help. At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.

    As for the bluster about how powerful the US military is see the recent war games:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/i-fought-a-war-against-iran-and-it-ended-badly/

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-parsi-war-with-iran_us_5abd46fde4b055e50acc2e82

    I do not think you know anything about weapons systems and their capabilities.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz.
     
    with

    At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.
     
    Oh man.....

    You got all this other way around. No prob. Keep at it.

    The some of us will keep, hopefully, talking a bit what could happen should IRAN try to block Hormuz.
    , @Johnny Rico

    "bold macho"..."bluster"
     
    I don't think so. More likely that is your resentment and hurt feelings. Don't take it personally.

    I made very clear I didn't know how the situation would play out.

    Did you see what happened in Egypt in 1973 and in Iraq in 1991 and 2003? . Did you see what happened with the oil-tankers before and after they were escorted by the US Navy in 1986 and 1987? That's all I'm saying. No bluster.

    I may not know much about "capabilities" but I know more than you and that is really all that matters in this instance.

    https://m.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988-05/tanker-war

    I know this - the US military has one capability that it owns and denies any opponent in any serious fight. That is air superiority. The speed with which the US military achieves air superiority is the "killer app" of modern warfare.

    As far as oil goes, you are out of your depth. The US is NOT a net exporter of oil, so all that stuff about 300,000 bpd that go to China and the (predicted) future of the petrodollar is meaningless.

    Africa is relatively unimportant. It is a cheaper, more efficient global option to send oil from Libya, Algeria, and Western Africa to Europe or the West. China makes deals there because it is desperate and knows what the future holds as oil production everywhere but the Middle East peaks.

    Most of the exported oil that cannot travel by pipeline or to neighbors who are close by comes out of the Persian Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq. The 2-3 mbpd Iran can manage in exports is a relatively small percentage of this. Iran's rather large population makes that population dependent on oil sales. War is lose/lose for Iran.

    You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it's own flowing.
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  50. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:
    @peterAUS

    ...... could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them?...
     
    Deep you say?
    Maybe I could try. Will need to work with some other people. Doable.

    How about a deal?
    One month, $ 50 000.
    We could hammer details over Tor and such if you wish.

    Failing that, how about you provide a deep analysis of US and allies offensive capabilities?
    Here, for free. Next post, preferably.
    See my point?
    Maybe....

    As for this:


    ....As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering...
     
    Hehehe....you slipped a bit.

    Defense lies in not allowing USA what it wants . Another line of defense is to go after the master that controls the born again slave( or bonded labor known as America )

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Sounds as a sound (pun intended) grand strategy.

    Not sure mullahs will be able to do that.

    I suspect they'll be focusing on their pure survival. Just keeping alive, that is.

    In any case, we'll see.
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  51. krollchem says:
    @peterAUS

    ...... could you provide a deep analysis of Iranian defensive capabilities, or lack ot them?...
     
    Deep you say?
    Maybe I could try. Will need to work with some other people. Doable.

    How about a deal?
    One month, $ 50 000.
    We could hammer details over Tor and such if you wish.

    Failing that, how about you provide a deep analysis of US and allies offensive capabilities?
    Here, for free. Next post, preferably.
    See my point?
    Maybe....

    As for this:


    ....As for Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this is just fear mongering...
     
    Hehehe....you slipped a bit.

    This site serves as a vehicle for learning. You make a lot of comments at this site but are very short on documentation. Could you try to do a little research and share it with the rest of us?

    Do you even know the capabilities of the Tor-M2, S-300 or any of the other Iranian defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities.

    See comment #48 for some war game studies in regards to the inflated US military might against Iran.

    Please also explain how the US has been fighting in Afghanistan for 17 years with no end in sight.

    The hehehe comment is very childish.

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war. How are your nuclear war survival skills?

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Sorry mate, won't bite.
    Can recognize a Kremln fanboy from a mile.
    On top of it you strike me as a person who has zero real life experience with military. Just the way you write.

    The only fragment you got right, I concede, is:

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war.
     
    My sentiment exactly.
    The only problem I see there, the ONLY, is Iranian attempt to block Hormuz.
    All the rest simply doesn't interest me re that "shooting war".

    So, you'll have to excuse me for not getting into the rest of your post.
    Free the same for mine.
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  52. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz. The detailed commentary on Iran's options against US sanction is meant to continue the flow of Iranian oil. When US sanctions fail the US will impose a blockade or start attacking Iranian assets with the Saudi terrorist state help. At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.

    As for the bluster about how powerful the US military is see the recent war games:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/i-fought-a-war-against-iran-and-it-ended-badly/

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-parsi-war-with-iran_us_5abd46fde4b055e50acc2e82

    I do not think you know anything about weapons systems and their capabilities.

    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz.

    with

    At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.

    Oh man…..

    You got all this other way around. No prob. Keep at it.

    The some of us will keep, hopefully, talking a bit what could happen should IRAN try to block Hormuz.

    Read More
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  53. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    This site serves as a vehicle for learning. You make a lot of comments at this site but are very short on documentation. Could you try to do a little research and share it with the rest of us?

    Do you even know the capabilities of the Tor-M2, S-300 or any of the other Iranian defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities.

    See comment #48 for some war game studies in regards to the inflated US military might against Iran.

    Please also explain how the US has been fighting in Afghanistan for 17 years with no end in sight.

    The hehehe comment is very childish.

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war. How are your nuclear war survival skills?

    Sorry mate, won’t bite.
    Can recognize a Kremln fanboy from a mile.
    On top of it you strike me as a person who has zero real life experience with military. Just the way you write.

    The only fragment you got right, I concede, is:

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war.

    My sentiment exactly.
    The only problem I see there, the ONLY, is Iranian attempt to block Hormuz.
    All the rest simply doesn’t interest me re that “shooting war”.

    So, you’ll have to excuse me for not getting into the rest of your post.
    Free the same for mine.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    Does 91C20 count?

    How much experience do you have with plutonium, beryllium, and depleted uranium? You have no idea haw bad things can get and neither do the idiots who call themselves generals in the US military.

    You provide few educational opportunities for the readers at this site. Why do you persist?

    Short snipes are better appreciated at CNN and the other MSM outlets.
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  54. peterAUS says:
    @anon
    Defense lies in not allowing USA what it wants . Another line of defense is to go after the master that controls the born again slave( or bonded labor known as America )

    Sounds as a sound (pun intended) grand strategy.

    Not sure mullahs will be able to do that.

    I suspect they’ll be focusing on their pure survival. Just keeping alive, that is.

    In any case, we’ll see.

    Read More
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  55. peterAUS says:

    This could be of some interest, for some:

    From Wiki, still…
    Two small submarines. With naval mines instead of torpedoes/swimmers/whatever. Especially the smaller.

    Yugo
    Yugo class
    Ship displacement: 90 tons submerged
    Dimensions: 20 x 2 x 1.6 meters (65.6 x 6.5 x 5 ft)
    Propulsion: Diesel-electric, 1 diesel, 1 shaft, 160 shp (119 kW), 4 knots (7 km/h)
    Crew: 2 + 6 swimmers
    Armament: 2 21-inch (533 mm) torpedoes in drop collars.
    North-Korean built.

    Al-Sabehat 15 SDV
    Al-Sabehat 15 SDV class
    Ship displacement: > 10 tons submerged
    Dimensions:
    Propulsion: Diesel-electric, 1 diesel, 1 shaft,
    Crew: 2 + 3-7 swimmers
    Armament: Mines.
    Iran built.
    My note: range on batteries could be interesting. One way at least, in this case.

    Now, small submarine in those waters.
    Of course that the map of the seabed there and especially acoustics are top classified stuff, but ,my feeling is that detecting those subs could prove difficult.

    If they are operational. If the crews are well trained. If the mines are up to standards.
    Another top classified stuff, of course.

    Any takers here re the above?
    Even Putin fanboys could chime in. Try to keep it realistic, boys. Won’t ask for civil replies; one can’t expect miracles here. I even promise to skim through 3 insults if some real info is there. Three only, mind you.

    Read More
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  56. @Sir Launcelot Canning
    The issue isn't Israel fighting with their military. It is how they fight through financial and political subversion. In that area they have no peer.

    They fight with deception too – 9/11 is a perfect example.

    Read More
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  57. krollchem says:
    @peterAUS
    Sorry mate, won't bite.
    Can recognize a Kremln fanboy from a mile.
    On top of it you strike me as a person who has zero real life experience with military. Just the way you write.

    The only fragment you got right, I concede, is:

    The sanctions war will likely blow up and become a shooting war.
     
    My sentiment exactly.
    The only problem I see there, the ONLY, is Iranian attempt to block Hormuz.
    All the rest simply doesn't interest me re that "shooting war".

    So, you'll have to excuse me for not getting into the rest of your post.
    Free the same for mine.

    Does 91C20 count?

    How much experience do you have with plutonium, beryllium, and depleted uranium? You have no idea haw bad things can get and neither do the idiots who call themselves generals in the US military.

    You provide few educational opportunities for the readers at this site. Why do you persist?

    Short snipes are better appreciated at CNN and the other MSM outlets.

    Read More
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  58. Eighthman says:
    @peterAUS
    Ah....got you wrong. Apologies.
    I was hoping for a bit of, say, informed conversation.
    If I were you I'd try to understand:
    -How would those mines get delivered?
    -How would those mines target just tankers and not the Navy ships protecting them (convoy thing, pickets, COUNTERMEASURES.....stuff like that). The same applies to missiles. Or planes. Or suicide fast crafts. Emphasis on "suicide".

    Having mentioned that (informed), handle krollchem does have a point here.

    When started posting on this site I hoped that the combination of free speech and knowledgeable people could produce quality insights, even sort of predict likely future events.
    I was wrong, of course. A crude mixture of agendas, cooks and healthy dose of sociopaths can't allow that. Add plenty of clueless fan boys/girls too and here we are.

    Now, of course we here don't have access to crucial intelligence, can't play wargames and overall spend time and energy to do it right.
    Still, I'd always prefer reading an US Admiral (retired) HERE to any, ahm, post on MSM, regardless by whom.
    Actually....a senior NCO would be even better.

    For example, this thing.....naval mines. It's been a while I really took a good look at it. But, even when I did that the last time it was a formidable weapon.

    Some other things too, but the above feels the most interesting.

    I can’t reply to that. It makes no sense.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    Does 91C20 count?
     
    Sometimes.

    How much experience do you have with plutonium, beryllium, and depleted uranium?
     
    Very little I am afraid.

    You have no idea haw bad things can get and neither do the idiots who call themselves generals in the US military.
     
    O.K.

    You provide few educational opportunities for the readers at this site. Why do you persist?
     
    Why do you?

    Short snipes are better appreciated at CNN and the other MSM outlets.
     
    Agree.

    So....what's your take on those mini/midget submarines re the "shooting war" with Iran?
    , @peterAUS
    I know.

    I'll try again:
    What do you think about Iranian mini/midget submarines?

    Slowly:
    What......do...... you....... think....... about...... Iranian..... mini/midget.... submarines?
    Or, even simpler:
    Could they plant those mines in Hormuz?
    Simple enough?

    Anything? Nothing? Not important? Don't care?
    Boring?
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  59. Eighthman says:
    Read More
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  60. peterAUS says:
    @Eighthman
    I can't reply to that. It makes no sense.

    Does 91C20 count?

    Sometimes.

    How much experience do you have with plutonium, beryllium, and depleted uranium?

    Very little I am afraid.

    You have no idea haw bad things can get and neither do the idiots who call themselves generals in the US military.

    O.K.

    You provide few educational opportunities for the readers at this site. Why do you persist?

    Why do you?

    Short snipes are better appreciated at CNN and the other MSM outlets.

    Agree.

    So….what’s your take on those mini/midget submarines re the “shooting war” with Iran?

    Read More
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  61. peterAUS says:
    @Eighthman
    I can't reply to that. It makes no sense.

    I know.

    I’ll try again:
    What do you think about Iranian mini/midget submarines?

    Slowly:
    What……do…… you……. think……. about…… Iranian….. mini/midget…. submarines?
    Or, even simpler:
    Could they plant those mines in Hormuz?
    Simple enough?

    Anything? Nothing? Not important? Don’t care?
    Boring?

    Read More
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  62. peterAUS says:

    The “conversation” about the topic is a bit slow, apparently.
    I feel it needs a little boost; that….magic…ingredient.
    Here……it……….goes:

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/iran-ready-to-implement-retaliatory-blockage-of-hormuz-against-u-s-1.6245620

    Guys, it’s Haaretz!!

    If this doesn’t boost it, nothing will:).
    Till the next time that is, probably next week.

    Read More
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  63. krollchem says:

    First, newer diesel submarines with air-independent propulsion systems (AIP) are hard to detect. See the US “experience” in war games with the Swedish HMS Gotland.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-iran-china-all-have-plan-kill-americas-nuclear-25454?page=0%2C1

    I doubt that the Iranian mini-submarines are as quiet as those of Russia China, and many NATO countries. The still may be effective, especially if they move slowly:

    https://www.wired.com/2008/08/iran-hypes-new/

    See also:

    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-01-22/news/9201070203_1_submarines-soviet-navy-officials-lengthy-period

    I do not see any Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz unless the US and its radical Islamic allies start the war first. Can you imagine the economic disruptions of shutting down gulf oil and the effects of oil slicks on desalinization plants?

    Many years ago I read that the US spent about $50/barrel in military expenditures for oil transiting the Gulf.

    As for the US military capabilities, the only recent US military genius was Col. Boyd (the real top gun) and his team. I doubt many US officers have read and understood his strategic approach to war. The F35 comes to mind when I think of ignorance of Col. Boyd’s works.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    We are making some progress here. Not all is lost.

    I doubt that the Iranian mini-submarines are as quiet as those of Russia China, and many NATO countries. The still may be effective, especially if they move slowly.
     
    Yup.

    I do not see any Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz unless the US and its radical Islamic allies start the war first.
     
    What's the expression: stating the obvious?
    Of course that the US and allies will start the war........?!? We are just contemplating the effectiveness of Iranian logical response to that.

    Can you imagine the economic disruptions of shutting down gulf oil and the effects of oil slicks on desalinization plants?
     
    I can. That's the part of the game.

    As for the US military capabilities
     
    they are quite enough to put Iran in Stone Age if necessary.

    Tell me....what do you think would be a reaction of general public in West (including Japan etc) should Iran close down the Hormuz?
    I'll tell you what I think: the public will demand from their respective Guvments to get rid of that disruption. And it, the Public, will blame Iranians for that. Or at least majority of public.
    Or, bluntly, that Public will support massive devastation of Iran.....massive.

    And, I am also sure that mullahs know all that.
    , @Chris Mallory
    Iranian diesel subs will work quite well in the Persian Gulf.

    The Gulf is not that big, allowing the Iranian diesels to transit without having to surface and charge batteries.
    The water in the Gulf is relatively shallow and has other properties that make ASW difficult.
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  64. Mulegino1 says:
    @Johnny Rico
    I agree. I think I'll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I'm sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, "Gulf of Tonkin."

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don't do it, don't be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don't pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker - these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. "Contained." This is just stuff that is running through my head. I've been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    Which is why “American air power and capabilities” worked such wonders, got Assad overthrown and achieved victory for American proxies Al CIADA and ISIS in Syria. Face it, the Assad government defeated the Israeli and American proxies- and it has severely pained those who take the Hollywood “exceptionalism” at face value. The last time America fought an enemy at rough conventional parity was against the Chinese in Korea, and that ended in a stalemate and a truce.

    Another “cakewalk”? I don’t think so.

    Iran is not “contained.” If anyone is boxed in, it is that s****y little state currently occupying Palestine, which could not deal with a few hundred or perhaps, thousands of light infantrymen in Southern Lebanon, with no heavy armor, heavy artillery, or naval forces.

    The days of effortless American power projection are over, done, and completed. Sure, we can still pick on some weak country like Honduras or even Venezuela to bully, but Iran is a bridge too far.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    Good point about a bridge too far. Have you seen this article of Russian electronic warfare use is Syria:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-30/russian-electronic-warfare-us-troops-syria-has-entered-new-phase-report
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  65. krollchem says:
    @Johnny Rico
    I agree. I think I'll spend some time today refreshing on the nuts and bolts of the 1980s Tanker War.

    Blocking the Straits has been the bogeyman bandied about for as long as the war with Iran has been prophecied. As some commenters above correctly pointed out, it is not a new story.

    As I'm sure Iran is well aware, any attack on oil-transport is exactly what those who want war would like to provoke.

    The response by the US military has been wargamed every which way for decades.

    I imagine an intense, precision air-campaign would be sustained on the Iranian coastline until there was nothing left. Satellite imagery has long ago mapped the locations of every missile battery and the decoys and every port for Iranian small/fast boats.

    Hell would be unleashed on the entire Iranian air-defense system working in from the periphery like the Israelis did to the Egyptian/Russian SAMs in 1973.

    I wouldn't want to be in the Iranian military or anywhere near an anti-ship missile battery if Iran attempted to block the Straits.

    All of this will happen faster than you can say, "Gulf of Tonkin."

    The UN in general would sign off on it. In the Security Council the Chinese would back the attack and if they are advising the Iranians at all it would be to tell them don't do it, don't be stupid.

    Blocking Saudi oil from reaching China is an existential threat to millions of Chinese.

    The Russians might veto any UN Security Council motions but they are most likely also counseling the Iranians not to be idiots.

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

    I don't pretend to know how any of this will play out. My guess is that none of this will happen. Because there is no reason for it, nobody wants it, and despite a lot of the nonsense coming from writers like The Saker - these are all rational actors involved. Maybe not as rational as some would like, but they have all been at this for quite some time and they know nobody wins if the Straits are blocked.

    It has been threatened and predicted and fantasized about for a long time by doom-mongers. Iran is boxed in. "Contained." This is just stuff that is running through my head. I've been following this discussion on the internet since at least 2004. Fascinating stuff.

    Are you aware that the character “johnny Rico” was from the anti-Fascist movie “Starship Troopers”

    https://www.interviewmagazine.com/film/starship-troopers-fascist-satire-coming-true

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  66. krollchem says:
    @Mulegino1

    If war happens it will simply demonstrate the futility of all that expensive Russian air-defense equipment against American air power and capabilities. Those same capabilities that are regularly denigrated here by the usual suspects. The Russians fear that and they know it will happen, just like in Iraq (twice).

     

    Which is why "American air power and capabilities" worked such wonders, got Assad overthrown and achieved victory for American proxies Al CIADA and ISIS in Syria. Face it, the Assad government defeated the Israeli and American proxies- and it has severely pained those who take the Hollywood "exceptionalism" at face value. The last time America fought an enemy at rough conventional parity was against the Chinese in Korea, and that ended in a stalemate and a truce.

    Another "cakewalk"? I don't think so.

    Iran is not "contained." If anyone is boxed in, it is that s****y little state currently occupying Palestine, which could not deal with a few hundred or perhaps, thousands of light infantrymen in Southern Lebanon, with no heavy armor, heavy artillery, or naval forces.

    The days of effortless American power projection are over, done, and completed. Sure, we can still pick on some weak country like Honduras or even Venezuela to bully, but Iran is a bridge too far.

    Good point about a bridge too far. Have you seen this article of Russian electronic warfare use is Syria:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-30/russian-electronic-warfare-us-troops-syria-has-entered-new-phase-report

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mulegino1
    No I haven't seen it, but thanks for the link!

    It would appear that the "masters of the universe" a-holes have met their match!

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  67. Mulegino1 says:
    @krollchem
    Good point about a bridge too far. Have you seen this article of Russian electronic warfare use is Syria:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-30/russian-electronic-warfare-us-troops-syria-has-entered-new-phase-report

    No I haven’t seen it, but thanks for the link!

    It would appear that the “masters of the universe” a-holes have met their match!

    Read More
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  68. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    First, newer diesel submarines with air-independent propulsion systems (AIP) are hard to detect. See the US "experience" in war games with the Swedish HMS Gotland.
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-iran-china-all-have-plan-kill-americas-nuclear-25454?page=0%2C1

    I doubt that the Iranian mini-submarines are as quiet as those of Russia China, and many NATO countries. The still may be effective, especially if they move slowly:
    https://www.wired.com/2008/08/iran-hypes-new/

    See also:
    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-01-22/news/9201070203_1_submarines-soviet-navy-officials-lengthy-period

    I do not see any Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz unless the US and its radical Islamic allies start the war first. Can you imagine the economic disruptions of shutting down gulf oil and the effects of oil slicks on desalinization plants?

    Many years ago I read that the US spent about $50/barrel in military expenditures for oil transiting the Gulf.

    As for the US military capabilities, the only recent US military genius was Col. Boyd (the real top gun) and his team. I doubt many US officers have read and understood his strategic approach to war. The F35 comes to mind when I think of ignorance of Col. Boyd's works.

    We are making some progress here. Not all is lost.

    I doubt that the Iranian mini-submarines are as quiet as those of Russia China, and many NATO countries. The still may be effective, especially if they move slowly.

    Yup.

    I do not see any Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz unless the US and its radical Islamic allies start the war first.

    What’s the expression: stating the obvious?
    Of course that the US and allies will start the war……..?!? We are just contemplating the effectiveness of Iranian logical response to that.

    Can you imagine the economic disruptions of shutting down gulf oil and the effects of oil slicks on desalinization plants?

    I can. That’s the part of the game.

    As for the US military capabilities

    they are quite enough to put Iran in Stone Age if necessary.

    Tell me….what do you think would be a reaction of general public in West (including Japan etc) should Iran close down the Hormuz?
    I’ll tell you what I think: the public will demand from their respective Guvments to get rid of that disruption. And it, the Public, will blame Iranians for that. Or at least majority of public.
    Or, bluntly, that Public will support massive devastation of Iran…..massive.

    And, I am also sure that mullahs know all that.

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  69. krollchem says:

    I smell a US false flag operation coming soon with Iran being blamed.

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten. You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran – Edward Bernays would have been impressed!

    You may be interested in this article concerning a brief listing of some of Irans defensive capabilities:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/an-iran-war-would-destroy-the-united-states/5649066

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too. Can you imagine the looting and blood on the streets if the cities are not supplied with food and consumer goods. The historialn Toynee called this level of looting “warbands”. Given that the US has about one million gang members (not to mention their families). Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.

    Consider that Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe and is on the outs with Trump. Then there is Lebanon which won a war against Israel in 2006. What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten
     
    Really?
    O...............K..........

    In this particular case a couple of reasons. As always a couple of reasons.

    Extremely briefly:

    1. Prevent the regime in Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
    2.Remove the regime in Tehran and replace it with something more pliable by US Administration.
    3. (Re)invigorate US economy; wars are usually good for that. Especially industry, especially where Trump had/has the most of support.
    Now, this element gets attacked a lot around. "The war will destroy US economy". I believe otherwise. The opposite in fact.
    4. War will definitely take heat from the current administration and homogenize the society. Wars do that.
    5. The last, but not the least, the war will, should it be successful, strenghten US position of power in this world. "Do as we say or else........". Admit, defining the success could be tricky. I go simply for "chaos in Iran". Something like Syria with Hormuz safe for tankers. Say, Somalia on steroids.

    I guess that's plenty of reasons.

    As for the rest, also briefly:

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too.
     
    It will not shut down oil from the Gulf.

    Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.
     
    Now that's an interesting thought, but I doubt it. Very much.

    Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe...
     
    Irrelevant.

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.
     
    It won't happen.
    Should it start to happen it won't benefit both Hezbollah and Iran.

    In all out war between US and allies, with Israel, on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other I pick up the winner with ease. 2 months, tops.

    There is certain inevitability in all this and I am not quite sure that focusing on military side will help people in Iran. Because, at the end of the day, they will suffer a lot.

    The key is in US domestic politics. Not optimistic.
    , @Mike P

    You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack.
     
    Bin Laden had nothing to do with it either - instead, the "attack" was carried out by Israel and the U.S. government. There are plenty of good sources on this -- some right here at unz.com.
    , @Chris Mallory

    You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran
     
    There was a report released a couple of months ago that said Iran didn't stamp the passport of an AQ member flying from Austria to Saudi. That was all it took to set the conservatards loose on "Iran did 9/11".

    Then there was the New York kangeroo court that held Iran guilty in a civil trial after Iran didn't show up to defend themselves. Pam Geller had an orgasm over that one.
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  70. What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon

    The Lebanese people cease to exist.

    The IDF is already on record as saying that they will destroy every port, bridge, electrical plant and water treatment facility in Lebanon in the first 72 hours of the next war. This is to be done in conjunction with a massacre of all people living in the Lebanese border villages. These acts of destruction will be carried out entirely with aircraft and artillery so Hezbollah will have no means of defending against them.

    10s of thousands of Lebanese cockroaches will be killed by the IDF directly, but the remainder will die by the millions over the next few months from starvation and disease as they will have no food, no water, no electricity and this time they won’t have the Saudi’s to pay for their reconstruction.

    Gaza is gonna look like the French Riveria compared to Lebanon after the next war.

    Here lie the Lebanese people: 2000 BCE – 2019 CE.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    Spoken like a true Zionist national socialist. The project you support will soon be thrown on the ash heap of history. Too bad so many Muslims, Christian, true Jews and others will have to die to end this sick Zionist wet dream.
    , @Uncle Sam
    Greasy William, you are living in a fool's paradise. Hezbollah and Lebanon now have very capable air defense systems (including the Russian SA-17). Israel will lose too many aircraft and be forced to fall back, while at the same time Israel's cities will be struck with thousands of missiles and be pulverized with enormous civilian casualties.

    Israel faces total destruction if it gets into a war with Hezbollah. The Israeli political and military leadership are well aware of what would happen. That is why they are very cautious and actually afraid to get into another war with Hezbollah.
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  71. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    I smell a US false flag operation coming soon with Iran being blamed.

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten. You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran - Edward Bernays would have been impressed!

    You may be interested in this article concerning a brief listing of some of Irans defensive capabilities:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/an-iran-war-would-destroy-the-united-states/5649066

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too. Can you imagine the looting and blood on the streets if the cities are not supplied with food and consumer goods. The historialn Toynee called this level of looting "warbands". Given that the US has about one million gang members (not to mention their families). Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.

    Consider that Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe and is on the outs with Trump. Then there is Lebanon which won a war against Israel in 2006. What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten

    Really?
    O……………K……….

    In this particular case a couple of reasons. As always a couple of reasons.

    Extremely briefly:

    1. Prevent the regime in Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
    2.Remove the regime in Tehran and replace it with something more pliable by US Administration.
    3. (Re)invigorate US economy; wars are usually good for that. Especially industry, especially where Trump had/has the most of support.
    Now, this element gets attacked a lot around. “The war will destroy US economy”. I believe otherwise. The opposite in fact.
    4. War will definitely take heat from the current administration and homogenize the society. Wars do that.
    5. The last, but not the least, the war will, should it be successful, strenghten US position of power in this world. “Do as we say or else……..”. Admit, defining the success could be tricky. I go simply for “chaos in Iran”. Something like Syria with Hormuz safe for tankers. Say, Somalia on steroids.

    I guess that’s plenty of reasons.

    As for the rest, also briefly:

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too.

    It will not shut down oil from the Gulf.

    Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.

    Now that’s an interesting thought, but I doubt it. Very much.

    Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe…

    Irrelevant.

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.

    It won’t happen.
    Should it start to happen it won’t benefit both Hezbollah and Iran.

    In all out war between US and allies, with Israel, on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other I pick up the winner with ease. 2 months, tops.

    There is certain inevitability in all this and I am not quite sure that focusing on military side will help people in Iran. Because, at the end of the day, they will suffer a lot.

    The key is in US domestic politics. Not optimistic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    War is a racket and the US and its five-eyes allies + Israel is simply a fascist imperialism mafia state.

    My uncles fought and were wounded in the first World War to stop the Central Powers from doing what you dream of.

    We do not share the same worldview and never - will end of story.
    , @Deschutes
    You've got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops? Egads, you take talking out your ass to a whole new, deeper more odiferous level. Where the fuck have you been for the last 17 years? Hiding under a rock smoking crack? Sure sounds like it. Let me bring you up to date on some basic facts you evidently don't know: 1) Afghanistan war has been grinding on since 2001. No, mission NOT accomplished. The country is in far worse shape than when US invaded it in 2001 on false pretexts. US now negotiating with Taliban to get out of Afghanistan 2) Idiots like you said 15 years ago that the Iraq invasion would be a "quick Mission Accomplished" regime change operation, with exactly the same arrogance and glibness as you here. 3) Hey–did you know? USA/Israel/Saudi Arabia just lost the Syrian war. Just thought I'd bring you up to date on that one.

    Thanks for the laughs though, you're really funny :-D

    , @anon
    by Grant Smith Posted on July 31, 2018
    The Virginia-Israel Advisory Board VIAB has one key difference with scores of privately funded state chambers of commerce created to foster closer economic integration between the United States and Israel while supporting the Israeli government’s policy agenda.

    Originally created by an uncodified act in 2001, VIAB has been funded by Commonwealth of Virginia taxpayers. Its charter is to “advise the Governor on ways to improve economic and cultural links between the Commonwealth and the State of Israel, with a focus on the areas of commerce and trade, art and education, and general government.” VIAB is a pilot for how Israel can quietly obtain taxpayer funding and official status for networked entities that advance Israel from within key state governments.

    According to emails recently released under Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act, VIAB’s lofty claims about creating Virginia jobs and mutually beneficial business opportunities faced growing skepticism inside the governor’s office. VIAB also uses state resources to fight Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions--https://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2018/07/30/meet-viab-virginias-taxpayer-funded-israel-lobby/

    Its easy to attack the one who doesn't hurt you and has no means to hurt you . But keep the enemy- real enemy close to your balls- shower them with gifts and adulation otherwise it might eat away the money you have left for your kids and the money you have earmarked for their college before they leave to shoot at the enemies of the that ball-hugging super race.

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  72. Deschutes says:

    Margolis is talking out his ass, as usual. What else would you expect from an NPR windbag propagandist? Iran is no Iraq, and Margolis totally underestimates the Iranian defenses. Iran has had 15+ years to prepare for this immanent war. They will not copy the mistakes of Hussein. I think the impending USA vs. Iran war will be a very difficult one for the USA. USA will of course have total air superiority and can rain bombs on Iran for years on end; but eventually you must put boots on the ground and invade Iran, and try to occupy it. That is the American’s biggest weakness. I would imagine Iran has really prepared for such a land invasion. It’s going to be very ugly, and far more costly than this NPR clown journo thinks.

    Read More
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  73. krollchem says:
    @Greasy William

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon
     
    The Lebanese people cease to exist.

    The IDF is already on record as saying that they will destroy every port, bridge, electrical plant and water treatment facility in Lebanon in the first 72 hours of the next war. This is to be done in conjunction with a massacre of all people living in the Lebanese border villages. These acts of destruction will be carried out entirely with aircraft and artillery so Hezbollah will have no means of defending against them.

    10s of thousands of Lebanese cockroaches will be killed by the IDF directly, but the remainder will die by the millions over the next few months from starvation and disease as they will have no food, no water, no electricity and this time they won't have the Saudi's to pay for their reconstruction.

    Gaza is gonna look like the French Riveria compared to Lebanon after the next war.

    Here lie the Lebanese people: 2000 BCE - 2019 CE.

    Spoken like a true Zionist national socialist. The project you support will soon be thrown on the ash heap of history. Too bad so many Muslims, Christian, true Jews and others will have to die to end this sick Zionist wet dream.

    Read More
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  74. krollchem says:
    @peterAUS

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten
     
    Really?
    O...............K..........

    In this particular case a couple of reasons. As always a couple of reasons.

    Extremely briefly:

    1. Prevent the regime in Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
    2.Remove the regime in Tehran and replace it with something more pliable by US Administration.
    3. (Re)invigorate US economy; wars are usually good for that. Especially industry, especially where Trump had/has the most of support.
    Now, this element gets attacked a lot around. "The war will destroy US economy". I believe otherwise. The opposite in fact.
    4. War will definitely take heat from the current administration and homogenize the society. Wars do that.
    5. The last, but not the least, the war will, should it be successful, strenghten US position of power in this world. "Do as we say or else........". Admit, defining the success could be tricky. I go simply for "chaos in Iran". Something like Syria with Hormuz safe for tankers. Say, Somalia on steroids.

    I guess that's plenty of reasons.

    As for the rest, also briefly:

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too.
     
    It will not shut down oil from the Gulf.

    Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.
     
    Now that's an interesting thought, but I doubt it. Very much.

    Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe...
     
    Irrelevant.

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.
     
    It won't happen.
    Should it start to happen it won't benefit both Hezbollah and Iran.

    In all out war between US and allies, with Israel, on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other I pick up the winner with ease. 2 months, tops.

    There is certain inevitability in all this and I am not quite sure that focusing on military side will help people in Iran. Because, at the end of the day, they will suffer a lot.

    The key is in US domestic politics. Not optimistic.

    War is a racket and the US and its five-eyes allies + Israel is simply a fascist imperialism mafia state.

    My uncles fought and were wounded in the first World War to stop the Central Powers from doing what you dream of.

    We do not share the same worldview and never – will end of story.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    We do not share the same worldview and never – will end of story.
     
    with

    We do not share the same worldview and never – will end of story.
     
    Haha....so much for "91C20".

    When you feel like it, please, tell us, what drives you to do that "virtue signalling"?
    I have a theory or two, but keen on hearing more.
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  75. Deschutes says:
    @peterAUS

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten
     
    Really?
    O...............K..........

    In this particular case a couple of reasons. As always a couple of reasons.

    Extremely briefly:

    1. Prevent the regime in Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
    2.Remove the regime in Tehran and replace it with something more pliable by US Administration.
    3. (Re)invigorate US economy; wars are usually good for that. Especially industry, especially where Trump had/has the most of support.
    Now, this element gets attacked a lot around. "The war will destroy US economy". I believe otherwise. The opposite in fact.
    4. War will definitely take heat from the current administration and homogenize the society. Wars do that.
    5. The last, but not the least, the war will, should it be successful, strenghten US position of power in this world. "Do as we say or else........". Admit, defining the success could be tricky. I go simply for "chaos in Iran". Something like Syria with Hormuz safe for tankers. Say, Somalia on steroids.

    I guess that's plenty of reasons.

    As for the rest, also briefly:

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too.
     
    It will not shut down oil from the Gulf.

    Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.
     
    Now that's an interesting thought, but I doubt it. Very much.

    Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe...
     
    Irrelevant.

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.
     
    It won't happen.
    Should it start to happen it won't benefit both Hezbollah and Iran.

    In all out war between US and allies, with Israel, on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other I pick up the winner with ease. 2 months, tops.

    There is certain inevitability in all this and I am not quite sure that focusing on military side will help people in Iran. Because, at the end of the day, they will suffer a lot.

    The key is in US domestic politics. Not optimistic.

    You’ve got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops? Egads, you take talking out your ass to a whole new, deeper more odiferous level. Where the fuck have you been for the last 17 years? Hiding under a rock smoking crack? Sure sounds like it. Let me bring you up to date on some basic facts you evidently don’t know: 1) Afghanistan war has been grinding on since 2001. No, mission NOT accomplished. The country is in far worse shape than when US invaded it in 2001 on false pretexts. US now negotiating with Taliban to get out of Afghanistan 2) Idiots like you said 15 years ago that the Iraq invasion would be a “quick Mission Accomplished” regime change operation, with exactly the same arrogance and glibness as you here. 3) Hey–did you know? USA/Israel/Saudi Arabia just lost the Syrian war. Just thought I’d bring you up to date on that one.

    Thanks for the laughs though, you’re really funny :-D

    Read More
    • Replies: @Greasy William

    You’ve got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops?
     
    You're right. It's ridiculous.

    Iran wouldn't last 2 weeks.
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  76. krollchem says:

    This article has really brought out the fascist warmongering ideology that dominates the Western colonial powers. It has been interesting to observe the prisoners in this ideological cave. As Plato once observed the prisoners prefer their shadows to reality and would kill those who would try to bring them into the light of day.

    https://web.stanford.edu/class/ihum40/cave.pdf

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    This article has really brought out the fascist warmongering ideology that dominates the Western colonial powers. It has been interesting to observe the prisoners in this ideological cave.
     
    Zero social intelligence.

    No wonder "virtue signalling". Helps with (lack of) self-esteem.

    That's for online therapy here.

    Back to topic.
    Mentioning of Haaretz and even "Greasy" commenting here haven't reinvigorated the discussion.
    Ah, well...

    Next time, perhaps.

    Submarines and mines, then, hopefully.
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  77. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    War is a racket and the US and its five-eyes allies + Israel is simply a fascist imperialism mafia state.

    My uncles fought and were wounded in the first World War to stop the Central Powers from doing what you dream of.

    We do not share the same worldview and never - will end of story.

    We do not share the same worldview and never – will end of story.

    with

    We do not share the same worldview and never – will end of story.

    Haha….so much for “91C20″.

    When you feel like it, please, tell us, what drives you to do that “virtue signalling”?
    I have a theory or two, but keen on hearing more.

    Read More
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  78. fish says:
    @Henryhackton
    " No one will be sorry to see them go."

    Typical of arrogant American motor-mouth know it all knuckle draggers. Is there a more sickening people on earth?

    Typical of arrogant American motor-mouth know it all knuckle draggers. Is there a more sickening people on earth?

    Read More
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  79. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    This article has really brought out the fascist warmongering ideology that dominates the Western colonial powers. It has been interesting to observe the prisoners in this ideological cave. As Plato once observed the prisoners prefer their shadows to reality and would kill those who would try to bring them into the light of day.

    https://web.stanford.edu/class/ihum40/cave.pdf

    This article has really brought out the fascist warmongering ideology that dominates the Western colonial powers. It has been interesting to observe the prisoners in this ideological cave.

    Zero social intelligence.

    No wonder “virtue signalling”. Helps with (lack of) self-esteem.

    That’s for online therapy here.

    Back to topic.
    Mentioning of Haaretz and even “Greasy” commenting here haven’t reinvigorated the discussion.
    Ah, well…

    Next time, perhaps.

    Submarines and mines, then, hopefully.

    Read More
    • Replies: @krollchem
    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles. Do you work for Unit 8200?
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  80. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:

    Russian ambassador to Israel: We can’t force Iran to leave Syria
    Anatoly Viktorov says Iranian-backed forces have a ‘very important role’ in fighting opponents of Assad regime
    Speaking with Channel 10 news, Anatoly Viktorov said the Iranians are “playing a very, very important role in our common and joint efforts to eliminate terrorists in Syria

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-ambassador-we-cant-force-iran-to-leave-syria/

    Now fast backward- Israel to US – Can you remove Saddam. US – Yes we will

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  81. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:
    @peterAUS

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten
     
    Really?
    O...............K..........

    In this particular case a couple of reasons. As always a couple of reasons.

    Extremely briefly:

    1. Prevent the regime in Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
    2.Remove the regime in Tehran and replace it with something more pliable by US Administration.
    3. (Re)invigorate US economy; wars are usually good for that. Especially industry, especially where Trump had/has the most of support.
    Now, this element gets attacked a lot around. "The war will destroy US economy". I believe otherwise. The opposite in fact.
    4. War will definitely take heat from the current administration and homogenize the society. Wars do that.
    5. The last, but not the least, the war will, should it be successful, strenghten US position of power in this world. "Do as we say or else........". Admit, defining the success could be tricky. I go simply for "chaos in Iran". Something like Syria with Hormuz safe for tankers. Say, Somalia on steroids.

    I guess that's plenty of reasons.

    As for the rest, also briefly:

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too.
     
    It will not shut down oil from the Gulf.

    Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.
     
    Now that's an interesting thought, but I doubt it. Very much.

    Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe...
     
    Irrelevant.

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.
     
    It won't happen.
    Should it start to happen it won't benefit both Hezbollah and Iran.

    In all out war between US and allies, with Israel, on one side and Iran and Hezbollah on the other I pick up the winner with ease. 2 months, tops.

    There is certain inevitability in all this and I am not quite sure that focusing on military side will help people in Iran. Because, at the end of the day, they will suffer a lot.

    The key is in US domestic politics. Not optimistic.

    by Grant Smith Posted on July 31, 2018
    The Virginia-Israel Advisory Board VIAB has one key difference with scores of privately funded state chambers of commerce created to foster closer economic integration between the United States and Israel while supporting the Israeli government’s policy agenda.

    Originally created by an uncodified act in 2001, VIAB has been funded by Commonwealth of Virginia taxpayers. Its charter is to “advise the Governor on ways to improve economic and cultural links between the Commonwealth and the State of Israel, with a focus on the areas of commerce and trade, art and education, and general government.” VIAB is a pilot for how Israel can quietly obtain taxpayer funding and official status for networked entities that advance Israel from within key state governments.

    According to emails recently released under Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act, VIAB’s lofty claims about creating Virginia jobs and mutually beneficial business opportunities faced growing skepticism inside the governor’s office. VIAB also uses state resources to fight Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions–https://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2018/07/30/meet-viab-virginias-taxpayer-funded-israel-lobby/

    Its easy to attack the one who doesn’t hurt you and has no means to hurt you . But keep the enemy- real enemy close to your balls- shower them with gifts and adulation otherwise it might eat away the money you have left for your kids and the money you have earmarked for their college before they leave to shoot at the enemies of the that ball-hugging super race.

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  82. krollchem says:
    @peterAUS

    This article has really brought out the fascist warmongering ideology that dominates the Western colonial powers. It has been interesting to observe the prisoners in this ideological cave.
     
    Zero social intelligence.

    No wonder "virtue signalling". Helps with (lack of) self-esteem.

    That's for online therapy here.

    Back to topic.
    Mentioning of Haaretz and even "Greasy" commenting here haven't reinvigorated the discussion.
    Ah, well...

    Next time, perhaps.

    Submarines and mines, then, hopefully.

    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles. Do you work for Unit 8200?

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.
     
    More "virtue signalling.
    O.K.

    A bit of surprising anger from a bookworm:

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.
     
    but that's O.K. too, if helps with depression. Still recommend to work on your social intelligence.

    As for this

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles.
     
    that's an interesting approach to the issue at hand.
    I prefer current/ex military to scholars, but that's just me.
    Sea mines and mini/midget submarines, I mean.

    Do you work for Unit 8200?
     
    Do you for The Internet Research Agency, or whatever it's called now?
    , @Mike P
    Don't bother arguing with peterAUS - he is simply a reverse Turing test, out to prove that living humans can be just as smart as robotic can openers.
    , @Deschutes
    Your wasting your time debating that smartass. He's just trying to get you wound up. He gets his kicks by posting outrageous provocative shit in hopes to get you to overreact.
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  83. peterAUS says:
    @krollchem
    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles. Do you work for Unit 8200?

    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    More “virtue signalling.
    O.K.

    A bit of surprising anger from a bookworm:

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    but that’s O.K. too, if helps with depression. Still recommend to work on your social intelligence.

    As for this

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles.

    that’s an interesting approach to the issue at hand.
    I prefer current/ex military to scholars, but that’s just me.
    Sea mines and mini/midget submarines, I mean.

    Do you work for Unit 8200?

    Do you for The Internet Research Agency, or whatever it’s called now?

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Inconsistencies at moral level too .
    derision at "virtue signalling " followed by yearning for " social intelligence" !!!! They call it WTF !!!
    . It seems its not the case of projected Depression but the the painful truth of Dementia that has set in .
    , @anonymous4757
    You glow.
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  84. peterAUS says:

    Maybe interesting.
    Quotes from two Web “articles”:

    [MORE]

    A Yemeni Coast Guard vessel exploded on Friday, hitting a naval mine planted in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia.

    Yemeni military sources revealed to Al-Arabiya that the explosion occurred as the vessel was undertaking a surveillance tour in the region. Two Coast Guard officers were killed, and eight others are currently being treated in the southern Yemeni city of Aden.

    The deaths come just one week after the United States Office of Naval Intelligence (oni) warned that the Iranian-backed Houthi militia operating in western Yemen had deployed the naval mines in the strait. The oni report warned commercial ships of the danger of mines planted by the Houthis near the Mokha port at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb.

    The placing of mines in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the latest in a host of signs that Iran is implementing a strategy to control shipping through this critical sea-lane.

    At the end of February, Iran conducted its annual naval exercise from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Included this year for the first time was the area in question—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

    At the time, Jacob Shapiro wrote for Geopolitical Futures that the inclusion of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in this year’s exercise is an addition that “offers a window into Iranian strategy.”

    However, back in 2011, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry warned that Iran had a strategy to control these waterways. Since 2011, the Trumpet observed Iran take over western Yemen through its backing of the Houthi militia and, through that connection, destabilize shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. When the Houthis took over the capital of Yemen in January 2015, Mr. Flurry wrote:

    The Houthi takeover in Yemen proves that Iran is implementing a bold strategy to control the vital sea-lane from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea.

    After the Houthi suicide boat attack on a Saudi frigate earlier this year, the Trumpet wrote, “Now with the Houthis controlling virtually all of Yemen’s western coast, the Iranians have shifted their focus off the land and into the Red Sea.” The naval exercises as well as the mining of the Bab el-Mandeb confirm that shift.

    Just how important is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

    As Mr. Flurry explained in an article in an April 2015 article:

    In order to reach the Mediterranean Sea from the Indian Ocean, a lot of seafaring trade—including 3.8 million barrels of oil per day—passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gate of the Red Sea. Measuring just 18 miles across, this channel is the closest point between the two landmasses of Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The northeast edge of the strait is in Yemeni territory.

    The strategic importance of controlling this passage is equal to controlling the Suez Canal, since both are part of the same thoroughfare.

    Consider the global ramifications: Nearly 10 percent of global seaborne oil supplies passes through the gates of the Red Sea. Roughly 20,000 ships pass through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb each year—an average of 55 per day. About 15 percent of global maritime trade travels through the Red Sea.

    As James Holmes wrote in a Foreign Policy piece last year:

    If a coastal foe can menace shipping transiting this narrow seaway, it would disrupt the shortest, most convenient sea route connecting Europe with South and East Asia. Doing so would carry significant economic and military repercussions.

    … Houthi antics could drive insurance rates sky-high for merchant shipping, prompting shippers to bypass the danger zone …. In a sense, then, the Houthis could conscript insurance firm Lloyd’s of London as an ally—magnifying their influence while distorting patterns of trade and military operations.

    In November 2016, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hossein Bagheri said, “One day, we may need [naval] bases on the coasts of Yemen and Syria.” Clearly, Iran has designs for this waterway and is right now in the process of making its intentions known.

    But how serious are Iran’s intentions in the Red Sea? Would it really close the Red Sea to international shipping? And if it did, which nations would be willing to counteract it……

    ….a threat just as deadly quietly looms in the form of sea mines that have been persistently deployed by Houthi rebels. These weapons have already struck local ships with devastating effects.

    On March 11th a Yemeni Coastguard vessel struck one of these mines, killing two and wounding eight of its crew. The strike resulted in Yemeni forces executing a rudimentary anti-mine warfare operation in the area, in which multiple mines were found and disarmed. But more mines can easily be dumped into the water, and those already floating in the waterway can travel great distances via ocean currents.

    Other barely reported mine strikes around the strait have occurred in recent months. Major General Ahmed Al-Assiri, the spokesman for the Saudi Arabian military, stated the following late last March:

    “Just a few days ago there was an incident where a fishing boat hit a mine off the Yemeni shores. Seven innocent fishermen were killed in this incident. This signifies the threat of these mines which needs to be addressed.”

    The Saudi Navy has also been active in minesweeping operations on the southern stretch of the Red Sea. But these anti-mine warfare efforts don’t seem to be sufficient for confronting the threat.

    Now more mines—which the Yemeni government claims, as with other advanced weapons, are of Iranian origin—are popping up in the area once again. These latest sightings were made near Midi, a Yemeni port city on the Red Sea located just south of the Saudi border.

    The mines were said to be relatively simple in nature, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have catastrophic effects on ships moving through the area, many of which carry huge loads of oil and natural gas.

    It is not clear at this point how the issue will be dealt with or by who. Sadly, it may take one of these mines to strike a foreign ship or one loaded with volatile cargo for an international response to occur.

    Two months ago, the US Navy’s Office Of Naval Intelligence released a warning stating the threat of naval mines is growing in the region and it has the potential to drastically disrupt navigation through the strategic waterway. The US Navy has also stated that they would do what it takes to keep the waterway open, but it isn’t clear that any sort of a protracted minesweeping operation is underway.
    The USS Ponce, which is capable of embarking MH-53E Sea Dragon minesweeping helicopters, was moved from its station in the Persian Gulf to close proximity to the Mandeb Strait last fall as part of a response to the anti-ship missile attacks in the region. As of late April, Ponce remains in the general area, although whether it is conducting minesweeping operations near the strait is unknown.

    The U.S. Navy does maintain a robust anti-mine warfare capability in the Persian Gulf in anticipation of an Iranian mining operation witch could be executed by surprise. The ability for Tehran to order the rapid closing of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Mandeb Strait simultaneously via a sudden mining operations is a fear I highlighted years ago when the Yemeni civil war first kicked off.

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  85. @Deschutes
    You've got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops? Egads, you take talking out your ass to a whole new, deeper more odiferous level. Where the fuck have you been for the last 17 years? Hiding under a rock smoking crack? Sure sounds like it. Let me bring you up to date on some basic facts you evidently don't know: 1) Afghanistan war has been grinding on since 2001. No, mission NOT accomplished. The country is in far worse shape than when US invaded it in 2001 on false pretexts. US now negotiating with Taliban to get out of Afghanistan 2) Idiots like you said 15 years ago that the Iraq invasion would be a "quick Mission Accomplished" regime change operation, with exactly the same arrogance and glibness as you here. 3) Hey–did you know? USA/Israel/Saudi Arabia just lost the Syrian war. Just thought I'd bring you up to date on that one.

    Thanks for the laughs though, you're really funny :-D

    You’ve got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops?

    You’re right. It’s ridiculous.

    Iran wouldn’t last 2 weeks.

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    • Replies: @Deschutes
    You're even more comically lost than the other guy :-D
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  86. @krollchem
    You are the one making the bold macho US attack options following US threats to stop oil exports by Iranian through the Strait of Hormuz. The detailed commentary on Iran's options against US sanction is meant to continue the flow of Iranian oil. When US sanctions fail the US will impose a blockade or start attacking Iranian assets with the Saudi terrorist state help. At this point Russia and China would be expected to block US warships from carrying out their mission to interdict Iranian tankers.

    As for the bluster about how powerful the US military is see the recent war games:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/i-fought-a-war-against-iran-and-it-ended-badly/

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-parsi-war-with-iran_us_5abd46fde4b055e50acc2e82

    I do not think you know anything about weapons systems and their capabilities.

    “bold macho”…”bluster”

    I don’t think so. More likely that is your resentment and hurt feelings. Don’t take it personally.

    I made very clear I didn’t know how the situation would play out.

    Did you see what happened in Egypt in 1973 and in Iraq in 1991 and 2003? . Did you see what happened with the oil-tankers before and after they were escorted by the US Navy in 1986 and 1987? That’s all I’m saying. No bluster.

    I may not know much about “capabilities” but I know more than you and that is really all that matters in this instance.

    https://m.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988-05/tanker-war

    I know this – the US military has one capability that it owns and denies any opponent in any serious fight. That is air superiority. The speed with which the US military achieves air superiority is the “killer app” of modern warfare.

    As far as oil goes, you are out of your depth. The US is NOT a net exporter of oil, so all that stuff about 300,000 bpd that go to China and the (predicted) future of the petrodollar is meaningless.

    Africa is relatively unimportant. It is a cheaper, more efficient global option to send oil from Libya, Algeria, and Western Africa to Europe or the West. China makes deals there because it is desperate and knows what the future holds as oil production everywhere but the Middle East peaks.

    Most of the exported oil that cannot travel by pipeline or to neighbors who are close by comes out of the Persian Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq. The 2-3 mbpd Iran can manage in exports is a relatively small percentage of this. Iran’s rather large population makes that population dependent on oil sales. War is lose/lose for Iran.

    You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Agree, of course.

    Overall, does feel as:

    More likely that is your resentment and hurt feelings.
     
    resulting in:

    You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing.
     
    Now, surprisingly enough for an average "US hater", rather civil responses, not the usual bile from that ilk.
    So far, at least.
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  87. peterAUS says:
    @Johnny Rico

    "bold macho"..."bluster"
     
    I don't think so. More likely that is your resentment and hurt feelings. Don't take it personally.

    I made very clear I didn't know how the situation would play out.

    Did you see what happened in Egypt in 1973 and in Iraq in 1991 and 2003? . Did you see what happened with the oil-tankers before and after they were escorted by the US Navy in 1986 and 1987? That's all I'm saying. No bluster.

    I may not know much about "capabilities" but I know more than you and that is really all that matters in this instance.

    https://m.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988-05/tanker-war

    I know this - the US military has one capability that it owns and denies any opponent in any serious fight. That is air superiority. The speed with which the US military achieves air superiority is the "killer app" of modern warfare.

    As far as oil goes, you are out of your depth. The US is NOT a net exporter of oil, so all that stuff about 300,000 bpd that go to China and the (predicted) future of the petrodollar is meaningless.

    Africa is relatively unimportant. It is a cheaper, more efficient global option to send oil from Libya, Algeria, and Western Africa to Europe or the West. China makes deals there because it is desperate and knows what the future holds as oil production everywhere but the Middle East peaks.

    Most of the exported oil that cannot travel by pipeline or to neighbors who are close by comes out of the Persian Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq. The 2-3 mbpd Iran can manage in exports is a relatively small percentage of this. Iran's rather large population makes that population dependent on oil sales. War is lose/lose for Iran.

    You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it's own flowing.

    Agree, of course.

    Overall, does feel as:

    More likely that is your resentment and hurt feelings.

    resulting in:

    You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing.

    Now, surprisingly enough for an average “US hater”, rather civil responses, not the usual bile from that ilk.
    So far, at least.

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  88. Krollchem says:

    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself. Why do you hate Iran so much but cozy up with the terror states of Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and the five-eyes?

    You all seem so ready to start a war with Iran by any means. You forget that it is the US and allied fascist countries that first threatened Iran and not the other way around.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city. Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.

    As for Reco’s comment:
    “You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing.”
    I never stated that Iran could keep their oil flowing in a case of war with the fascist states that you support. Everyone loses in a war and societies run on petrochemicals and any shortfall has dramatic economic and social consequences on fragile Western industrialized countries. I do not have the time to educate you on energy geopolitics so you will just have to find out on your own.

    As one of my fellow energy research scientists once said “you cannot fix stupid” . Thus, my comments are just to allow other readers to see your ideological agenda and I think that I have succeeded.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Greasy William

    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself.
     
    1. I'm Jewish, so there's you explanation for me

    2. Rico and peter are less anti Iran than they are anti Iran supporters. Normal people hate Iran supporters for the same reason people hated Ron Paul and Bernie supporters: they are annoying as fuck.

    3. Rico and peter are both against a US war with Iran (as am I), they are merely pointing out that fact that Iran is "weak as cobwebs", as Nasrallah would say, and that the US would crush them easily in any military conflict.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city.
     
    And the award for most irrelevant statement ever goes to Krollchem!

    Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.
     
    It really doesn't. That would be like calling an Arab free Israel "multi ethnic" because it has a bunch of different varieties of Jews. Iran is the same way, it has Persians and Azeris and a whole bunch of other things but at the end of the day they are really just different brands of the same subhuman "Iranian" phylum.
    , @peterAUS

    Why do you hate Iran so much but cozy up with the terror states....
     
    with

    You all seem so ready to start a war with Iran by any means.
     
    and

    ...my comments are just to allow other readers to see your ideological agenda and I think that I have succeeded.
     
    Definitive lack of social intelligence.

    ....my fellow energy research scientists....
     
    Probably explains it.

    Sad, of sort.
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  89. @Krollchem
    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself. Why do you hate Iran so much but cozy up with the terror states of Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and the five-eyes?

    You all seem so ready to start a war with Iran by any means. You forget that it is the US and allied fascist countries that first threatened Iran and not the other way around.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city. Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.

    As for Reco's comment:
    "You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing."
    I never stated that Iran could keep their oil flowing in a case of war with the fascist states that you support. Everyone loses in a war and societies run on petrochemicals and any shortfall has dramatic economic and social consequences on fragile Western industrialized countries. I do not have the time to educate you on energy geopolitics so you will just have to find out on your own.

    As one of my fellow energy research scientists once said "you cannot fix stupid" . Thus, my comments are just to allow other readers to see your ideological agenda and I think that I have succeeded.

    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself.

    1. I’m Jewish, so there’s you explanation for me

    2. Rico and peter are less anti Iran than they are anti Iran supporters. Normal people hate Iran supporters for the same reason people hated Ron Paul and Bernie supporters: they are annoying as fuck.

    3. Rico and peter are both against a US war with Iran (as am I), they are merely pointing out that fact that Iran is “weak as cobwebs”, as Nasrallah would say, and that the US would crush them easily in any military conflict.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city.

    And the award for most irrelevant statement ever goes to Krollchem!

    Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.

    It really doesn’t. That would be like calling an Arab free Israel “multi ethnic” because it has a bunch of different varieties of Jews. Iran is the same way, it has Persians and Azeris and a whole bunch of other things but at the end of the day they are really just different brands of the same subhuman “Iranian” phylum.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Deschutes
    Talk about as 'annoying as fuck', your comments certainly fit that description :-D


    Nurenburg Principles on War Crimes
    Principle VI
    The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law:

    (a) Crimes against peace:
    (i) Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances;
    (ii) Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the acts mentioned under (i).
    (b) War crimes:
    Violations of the laws or customs of war which include, but are not limited to, murder, ill-treatment or deportation to slave labor or for any other purpose of civilian population of or in occupied territory; murder or ill-treatment of prisoners of war or persons on the Seas, killing of hostages, plunder of public or private property, wanton destruction of cities, towns, or villages, or devastation not justified by military necessity.
    (c) Crimes against humanity:
    Murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation and other inhumane acts done against any civilian population, or persecutions on political, racial, or religious grounds, when such acts are done or such persecutions are carried on in execution of or in connection with any crime against peace or any war crime.

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  90. peterAUS says:
    @Krollchem
    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself. Why do you hate Iran so much but cozy up with the terror states of Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and the five-eyes?

    You all seem so ready to start a war with Iran by any means. You forget that it is the US and allied fascist countries that first threatened Iran and not the other way around.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city. Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.

    As for Reco's comment:
    "You are out of your mind if you think Iran will be able to block Saudi oil and keep it’s own flowing."
    I never stated that Iran could keep their oil flowing in a case of war with the fascist states that you support. Everyone loses in a war and societies run on petrochemicals and any shortfall has dramatic economic and social consequences on fragile Western industrialized countries. I do not have the time to educate you on energy geopolitics so you will just have to find out on your own.

    As one of my fellow energy research scientists once said "you cannot fix stupid" . Thus, my comments are just to allow other readers to see your ideological agenda and I think that I have succeeded.

    Why do you hate Iran so much but cozy up with the terror states….

    with

    You all seem so ready to start a war with Iran by any means.

    and

    …my comments are just to allow other readers to see your ideological agenda and I think that I have succeeded.

    Definitive lack of social intelligence.

    ….my fellow energy research scientists….

    Probably explains it.

    Sad, of sort.

    Read More
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  91. Deschutes says:
    @Greasy William

    You’ve got to be kidding: mopping up Iran in 2 months tops?
     
    You're right. It's ridiculous.

    Iran wouldn't last 2 weeks.

    You’re even more comically lost than the other guy :-D

    Read More
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  92. Deschutes says:
    @Greasy William

    I am always amazed by the cognitive discordance of Rico, Greasy and yourself.
     
    1. I'm Jewish, so there's you explanation for me

    2. Rico and peter are less anti Iran than they are anti Iran supporters. Normal people hate Iran supporters for the same reason people hated Ron Paul and Bernie supporters: they are annoying as fuck.

    3. Rico and peter are both against a US war with Iran (as am I), they are merely pointing out that fact that Iran is "weak as cobwebs", as Nasrallah would say, and that the US would crush them easily in any military conflict.

    Personally, I would feel safer on the river walk in Tehran than the streets of any large Western city.
     
    And the award for most irrelevant statement ever goes to Krollchem!

    Besides the people are happier and the food is better. Iran also has world class skiing and a multi-ethnic society.
     
    It really doesn't. That would be like calling an Arab free Israel "multi ethnic" because it has a bunch of different varieties of Jews. Iran is the same way, it has Persians and Azeris and a whole bunch of other things but at the end of the day they are really just different brands of the same subhuman "Iranian" phylum.

    Talk about as ‘annoying as fuck’, your comments certainly fit that description :-D

    Nurenburg Principles on War Crimes
    Principle VI
    The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law:

    (a) Crimes against peace:
    (i) Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances;
    (ii) Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the acts mentioned under (i).
    (b) War crimes:
    Violations of the laws or customs of war which include, but are not limited to, murder, ill-treatment or deportation to slave labor or for any other purpose of civilian population of or in occupied territory; murder or ill-treatment of prisoners of war or persons on the Seas, killing of hostages, plunder of public or private property, wanton destruction of cities, towns, or villages, or devastation not justified by military necessity.
    (c) Crimes against humanity:
    Murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation and other inhumane acts done against any civilian population, or persecutions on political, racial, or religious grounds, when such acts are done or such persecutions are carried on in execution of or in connection with any crime against peace or any war crime.

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    • Replies: @Greasy William
    ::sigh::

    Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenites are not human beings so obviously those populations are not protected by international law. Get your head out of your ass.
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  93. @Deschutes
    Talk about as 'annoying as fuck', your comments certainly fit that description :-D


    Nurenburg Principles on War Crimes
    Principle VI
    The crimes hereinafter set out are punishable as crimes under international law:

    (a) Crimes against peace:
    (i) Planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances;
    (ii) Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the acts mentioned under (i).
    (b) War crimes:
    Violations of the laws or customs of war which include, but are not limited to, murder, ill-treatment or deportation to slave labor or for any other purpose of civilian population of or in occupied territory; murder or ill-treatment of prisoners of war or persons on the Seas, killing of hostages, plunder of public or private property, wanton destruction of cities, towns, or villages, or devastation not justified by military necessity.
    (c) Crimes against humanity:
    Murder, extermination, enslavement, deportation and other inhumane acts done against any civilian population, or persecutions on political, racial, or religious grounds, when such acts are done or such persecutions are carried on in execution of or in connection with any crime against peace or any war crime.

    ::sigh::

    Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenites are not human beings so obviously those populations are not protected by international law. Get your head out of your ass.

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    • Replies: @anon
    Don't confuse yourself with any human being . You are not. You are 4 pieces of an animals stitched together with 4 projections.
    , @Den Lille Abe
    I think the rest of the world thinks otherwise. You are indirectly calling for genocide and have admitted you are a jew? I get it!
    I will not have to excuse anymore, those of my relatives in the Waffen SS, fighting on the Eastern Front!
    Cool! Want some war stories ? I have some that might interest you!
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  94. Moi says:
    @Greasy William
    There will never be a US attack on Iran.

    The final genocide of the Iranian "people" will be carried out by the Jews, not the Americans. Thus it is written.

    A war on Iran, as outlined by Margolis, will have a ripple effect throughout the Muslim world and beyond.

    Anyone who thinks he an predict the fallout/blowback is a fool, far, far bigger than the bigot DoS Pompus Maximus or the Orange One–or even Eric Margolis.

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  95. anon[266] • Disclaimer says:
    @peterAUS

    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.
     
    More "virtue signalling.
    O.K.

    A bit of surprising anger from a bookworm:

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.
     
    but that's O.K. too, if helps with depression. Still recommend to work on your social intelligence.

    As for this

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles.
     
    that's an interesting approach to the issue at hand.
    I prefer current/ex military to scholars, but that's just me.
    Sea mines and mini/midget submarines, I mean.

    Do you work for Unit 8200?
     
    Do you for The Internet Research Agency, or whatever it's called now?

    Inconsistencies at moral level too .
    derision at “virtue signalling ” followed by yearning for ” social intelligence” !!!! They call it WTF !!!
    . It seems its not the case of projected Depression but the the painful truth of Dementia that has set in .

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  96. Eighthman says:

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201808011066859027-trump-saudis-sanctions/

    “a surprise break” – someone else noticed this shift too. Trump must have realized that the Iran sanctions thing probably won’t work.

    It was also reported that some Saudis may stand with Iran – instead of Israel. There may be a dangerous line to be crossed in the Muslim world – if choices have to be made.

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  97. Mike P says:
    @krollchem
    I smell a US false flag operation coming soon with Iran being blamed.

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten. You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran - Edward Bernays would have been impressed!

    You may be interested in this article concerning a brief listing of some of Irans defensive capabilities:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/an-iran-war-would-destroy-the-united-states/5649066

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too. Can you imagine the looting and blood on the streets if the cities are not supplied with food and consumer goods. The historialn Toynee called this level of looting "warbands". Given that the US has about one million gang members (not to mention their families). Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.

    Consider that Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe and is on the outs with Trump. Then there is Lebanon which won a war against Israel in 2006. What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.

    You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack.

    Bin Laden had nothing to do with it either – instead, the “attack” was carried out by Israel and the U.S. government. There are plenty of good sources on this — some right here at unz.com.

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  98. Mike P says:
    @krollchem
    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles. Do you work for Unit 8200?

    Don’t bother arguing with peterAUS – he is simply a reverse Turing test, out to prove that living humans can be just as smart as robotic can openers.

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  99. William2 says:

    Much respect to Eric Margolis. Eric is a master.

    But I’m afraid in this instance he is wrong in some aspects.

    While I agree that Trump’s neocon advisers are salivating wanting war, I don’t think Trump, his base or the Pentagon wants one with Iran. That said, they may be goaded into one, who knows?

    As others have said, this is not as easy as Eric made it out to be. Iraq came out of an eight year war with Iran, then a war with Kuwait and the American coalition then over a dozen years of strangling sanctions – and INSPECTIONS. Inspectors knew everything about Iraq’s defenses, capabilities, people, weapons. Where Iraqis decided to fight back they gave the US hell. But mostly, the Shiites and the Kurds didn’t fight the US for Saddam. And even the brass of the Iraqi army did not fight.

    Iran is different. While Iran has sanctions against it, it has continued to develop it’s military capabilities. Russian S300 air defense will make any attacking air force pause.

    It is true that the difference in power is vast, but we saw in Gaza, which is tiny, flat and surrounded, we saw a population with no military, no air force, no ground force, no navy, no artillery, and living under the harshest siege in the world today. We saw them stand up to the Israeli army, equipped with all the latest American weapons and toys. Even then, Israel could not breach Gaza. They tried in 2009, 2012 and 2014. Failed three times. Gaza managed to strike at the heart of Tel Aviv and threaten Ben Gurion airport.

    But to compare the discrepency between Gaza and Israel to Iran and the US is a fallacy. A better comparison would be Hezbollah and Israel. Israel did break it’s teeth on Hezbollah.

    If Gaza, Hezbollah and the Houthis manged to strike deep into enemy territory and even hit naval destroyers then rest assured in a war with Iran American Aircraft carriers will be sunk. And the Strait of Hurmoz will be shut. Ben Gurion and Saudi airports as well as American military bases will be hit.

    It’s no cake walk.

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  100. Barzini says:

    I don’t see how an attack on Iran helps Israel. Iran has no border with Israel. They may be hostile to Israel, but they are not about to attack Israel militarily. Iranian politicians may go out on balconies and wave their fists at Israel, but so what?

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  101. Iran received the S300 russian air defence system not that long ago and also have the russian tor system. I’m sure that Margolis knows this I’ve been reading himy for years. Strange article indeed.

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  102. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:
    @Greasy William
    ::sigh::

    Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenites are not human beings so obviously those populations are not protected by international law. Get your head out of your ass.

    Don’t confuse yourself with any human being . You are not. You are 4 pieces of an animals stitched together with 4 projections.

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  103. Barzini says:
    @bob sykes
    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters, maybe only one, and the maritime insurance companies will cancel the insurance on all commercial shipping in the region. That will force ship owners to remove their ships from the region, until the US and its allies can guarantee no further attacks. Note that Iran doesn't need an air force or navy to do this. A few speedboats carrying RPG's and land-based artillery and missiles suffice. Although a few kamikaze attacks on US naval ships would be a good use of Iran's obsolete navy and air force.

    Remember that we were unable to find and destroy Hussein's scuds in the flat, open desert of Iraq. We won't find Iran's artillery and missiles in the Zagros Mountains, either.

    Keeping the oil flowing requires physical control of Iran from its coast inland as far as its anti-ship missiles can reach, which is about 120 miles for the latest version. So, the US and its allies would be forced to occupy Iran with ground troops, with all the bloody-mindedness that implies. It would be Vietnam II or maybe Korea II. The US and its allies lost both Korea I and Vietnam I.

    And Iran has other options, including terrorist attacks in the US against US civilians and politicians and infrastructure (think Mall of the Americas), and inciting Shi'ite unrest throughout the Middle East. Our base in Bahrain is in a Shi'ite country.

    Even if it could be done (zero probability), the time required to subdue Iran is on the order of many months to years, and during much or all of that time the oil flow out of the Persian Gulf would be minimal. We would have another Great Depression, probably deeper and longer than the first. The duration of the war would be greatly increased if Russia and China decided to support Iran. Both countries actively supported North Korea and North Vietnam during those wars.

    A large-scale, long-duration Persian Gulf war would mark the collapse of American hegemony in the world and maybe even the American state.

    Pundits have been predicting an attack on Iran for many years, yet it has not happened. At least not yet. Let’s hope that they are wrong again.

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  104. @bob sykes
    Blocking the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is relatively easy, and keeping the oil flowing is extremely hard. Iran need only attack a few freighters, maybe only one, and the maritime insurance companies will cancel the insurance on all commercial shipping in the region. That will force ship owners to remove their ships from the region, until the US and its allies can guarantee no further attacks. Note that Iran doesn't need an air force or navy to do this. A few speedboats carrying RPG's and land-based artillery and missiles suffice. Although a few kamikaze attacks on US naval ships would be a good use of Iran's obsolete navy and air force.

    Remember that we were unable to find and destroy Hussein's scuds in the flat, open desert of Iraq. We won't find Iran's artillery and missiles in the Zagros Mountains, either.

    Keeping the oil flowing requires physical control of Iran from its coast inland as far as its anti-ship missiles can reach, which is about 120 miles for the latest version. So, the US and its allies would be forced to occupy Iran with ground troops, with all the bloody-mindedness that implies. It would be Vietnam II or maybe Korea II. The US and its allies lost both Korea I and Vietnam I.

    And Iran has other options, including terrorist attacks in the US against US civilians and politicians and infrastructure (think Mall of the Americas), and inciting Shi'ite unrest throughout the Middle East. Our base in Bahrain is in a Shi'ite country.

    Even if it could be done (zero probability), the time required to subdue Iran is on the order of many months to years, and during much or all of that time the oil flow out of the Persian Gulf would be minimal. We would have another Great Depression, probably deeper and longer than the first. The duration of the war would be greatly increased if Russia and China decided to support Iran. Both countries actively supported North Korea and North Vietnam during those wars.

    A large-scale, long-duration Persian Gulf war would mark the collapse of American hegemony in the world and maybe even the American state.

    Bob, you’re absolutely right in stating that Iran’s very difficult, if not impossible, to defeat in a war; this is due not only to its topography (Iran’s mountainous; whereas, Iraq’s mostly flat) but also to its highly trained and disciplined military and its highly advanced missiles and their delivery systems. In addition, Iran’s allied with both Russia and China who’d come to aid the Islamic Republic.
    President Donald Trump has stated there’ll be no war against Iran, despite what the Trotskyists aka Neocons and their Globalist friends may say. He knows quite well what the consequences would be; plus, he knows a 3rd World War would destroy life on earth, leaving it a devastated wasteland.

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  105. jkipel says:

    Did Eric Margolis write this? It doesn’t sound like him. His articles are informative and substantive, but this one is far from it. The notion that the US could attack Iran and destroy it, and there hardly would be any consequences is something only a neocon or Netanyahu fan would conjure up. Unless of course Eric was being blackmailed.

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  106. utu says:

    America’s establishment is infiltrated by rabid and unscrupulous Zionist like Sean and Greasy William you can meet here.

    Unfortunately there is no internal political force that is going to do anything to stop the US going to war with Iran.

    It seems that the attacks against Trump from the Deep Sate and its useful idiots Left are pushing him in that direction. By going to war he will gain a temporary relief from the anti-Trump pressure and then all the blame for it so the Left will be able claim that they did not want the war while their machers (like Schumer) will secretly rejoice it was done.

    Only an external pressure from China and Russia can stop it form happening. Russia however shows some signs of being in cahoots with Israel.

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  107. @krollchem
    I smell a US false flag operation coming soon with Iran being blamed.

    I cannot understand why the the war drums are being beaten. You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran - Edward Bernays would have been impressed!

    You may be interested in this article concerning a brief listing of some of Irans defensive capabilities:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/an-iran-war-would-destroy-the-united-states/5649066

    If a war does shut down oil from the Gulf it will be the ruin of the West too. Can you imagine the looting and blood on the streets if the cities are not supplied with food and consumer goods. The historialn Toynee called this level of looting "warbands". Given that the US has about one million gang members (not to mention their families). Throw in radical political groups from both the right and left and you have a real civil war on your hands.

    Consider that Turkey is on good relations with Iran and also has the largest land army in Europe and is on the outs with Trump. Then there is Lebanon which won a war against Israel in 2006. What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon as well as long range cruise missiles from Iran.

    You will recall that it was Saudi radicals under Bin Laden attacked on 9/11 and that Iran had absolutely nothing to do with this attack. Somehow many Americans now blame 9/11 on Iran

    There was a report released a couple of months ago that said Iran didn’t stamp the passport of an AQ member flying from Austria to Saudi. That was all it took to set the conservatards loose on “Iran did 9/11″.

    Then there was the New York kangeroo court that held Iran guilty in a civil trial after Iran didn’t show up to defend themselves. Pam Geller had an orgasm over that one.

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  108. @krollchem
    First, newer diesel submarines with air-independent propulsion systems (AIP) are hard to detect. See the US "experience" in war games with the Swedish HMS Gotland.
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russia-iran-china-all-have-plan-kill-americas-nuclear-25454?page=0%2C1

    I doubt that the Iranian mini-submarines are as quiet as those of Russia China, and many NATO countries. The still may be effective, especially if they move slowly:
    https://www.wired.com/2008/08/iran-hypes-new/

    See also:
    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-01-22/news/9201070203_1_submarines-soviet-navy-officials-lengthy-period

    I do not see any Iranian closing of the Strait of Hormuz unless the US and its radical Islamic allies start the war first. Can you imagine the economic disruptions of shutting down gulf oil and the effects of oil slicks on desalinization plants?

    Many years ago I read that the US spent about $50/barrel in military expenditures for oil transiting the Gulf.

    As for the US military capabilities, the only recent US military genius was Col. Boyd (the real top gun) and his team. I doubt many US officers have read and understood his strategic approach to war. The F35 comes to mind when I think of ignorance of Col. Boyd's works.

    Iranian diesel subs will work quite well in the Persian Gulf.

    The Gulf is not that big, allowing the Iranian diesels to transit without having to surface and charge batteries.
    The water in the Gulf is relatively shallow and has other properties that make ASW difficult.

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  109. Uncle Sam says:

    The author of this article is badly misinformed when he states that “Iran’s air defenses range from feeble to non-existent.” What is he smoking? They have at least 4 batteries of S-300 air defense systems and 27 TOR-1 air defense tracked vehicles, along with capable indigenous air dense systems. Each battery of S-300′s has at least 6 launchers, each of which can fire 4 missiles. That is a total of 24 missiles. Since there are at least four of these batteries, that comes to a total of 96 missiles. That means they could target 48 aircraft, since each aircraft is assigned 2 missiles. The S-300 has a kill accuracy of 98%, which means that 48 aircraft would be shot down, or least 47 aircraft. No air force could sustain such losses.

    The American air force has not shown a capability to knock out the air defense systems of competent military opponents. A good example is Serbia back in 1999. Besides, if Iran was such a pushover , America and/or Israel would have attacked her long ago.

    The reason is obvious, except to misinfomed people like Eric Margolis.

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  110. @peterAUS
    Ah....got you wrong. Apologies.
    I was hoping for a bit of, say, informed conversation.
    If I were you I'd try to understand:
    -How would those mines get delivered?
    -How would those mines target just tankers and not the Navy ships protecting them (convoy thing, pickets, COUNTERMEASURES.....stuff like that). The same applies to missiles. Or planes. Or suicide fast crafts. Emphasis on "suicide".

    Having mentioned that (informed), handle krollchem does have a point here.

    When started posting on this site I hoped that the combination of free speech and knowledgeable people could produce quality insights, even sort of predict likely future events.
    I was wrong, of course. A crude mixture of agendas, cooks and healthy dose of sociopaths can't allow that. Add plenty of clueless fan boys/girls too and here we are.

    Now, of course we here don't have access to crucial intelligence, can't play wargames and overall spend time and energy to do it right.
    Still, I'd always prefer reading an US Admiral (retired) HERE to any, ahm, post on MSM, regardless by whom.
    Actually....a senior NCO would be even better.

    For example, this thing.....naval mines. It's been a while I really took a good look at it. But, even when I did that the last time it was a formidable weapon.

    Some other things too, but the above feels the most interesting.

    And more to the fact: We have not got a clue really on Iran’ defensive capabilities..
    We do know, they dont give up and are apple to accept huge numbers of dead.
    My guess would be their streng lies in mostly defensive capabilities; missiles and lots of them.

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    • Replies: @Deschutes
    Iran has had more than 15 years to not only study how the USA/Israel fought against Iraq and later actually fight against the USA/Israel/ISIS team in Syria, but during all of this time they most likely have prepared massive fortifications for an immanent attack by USA.

    It is obvious that Israel/USA/NATO will do a massive sustained air attack on all the key targets. Iran knows this, so they will have put everything of value well under ground in fortified bunkers. Mind you, 15+ years of work is a very long time to prepare for this coming attack. There are limits to what you can do with air power in this context.

    I think all that USA/Israel can do is bomb the fuck out of Iran with air power. Yes, destroy all the cities, etc. But what after that? If USA sends in the Marines they will face a deeply entrenched enemy in underground fortifications in urban combat at close quarters. They will take enormous casualties so probably won't invade.

    I guess the plan is to bomb the fuck out of Iran and then call it a day. Yep, that sounds like the American way of 'winning hearts and minds'.

    Little wonder USA and Israel consistently top the list of "world's most hated countries" polls.

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  111. @Greasy William
    ::sigh::

    Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians and Yemenites are not human beings so obviously those populations are not protected by international law. Get your head out of your ass.

    I think the rest of the world thinks otherwise. You are indirectly calling for genocide and have admitted you are a jew? I get it!
    I will not have to excuse anymore, those of my relatives in the Waffen SS, fighting on the Eastern Front!
    Cool! Want some war stories ? I have some that might interest you!

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  112. All said US lost 1737 aircraft in the Vietnam war, to hostile action and a further 500 in accidents, approximately 58 000 KIA.
    Yes , i understand Vietnam is not Iran (Iran is not a rice paddy), but the US is not the same either, now it is a “professional” defense force, whose Navy rams defenseless civilian ships (or cant perform at all) , whose Air force planes keep falling from the sky and whose Army are best moving down civilians.
    Of course Iran would loose such a war, no doubt, but can the US sustain the losses, can public opinion ? Say 15 000 bodybags ? 25 000 ? 50 000?
    I doubt the US can even put 100 000 soldiers on the ground, combat soldiers, that is, not 3′rd echelon cooks and chauffeurs, very few armies can. Iran has got at least 5 000 000 trained people with ammo and a AK 47 or RPG eager to put a dent in the US. (China has between 15 – 40 Million they can draw from). Forget it, the Iranians can simply “trample” the US to death, at least until the US runs out of body bags.
    And consider if the US starts a war, we don’t have to trade with it anymore, its under sanction, goodbye “Rare metals” (China), goodbye computer chips (China) goodbye everything, because the US cant produce anything (No factories) and has few resources left, hehe.
    Sanction the American people to a dose of “concentration camp”, 900 calories a day, candle light, and horse drawn transportion! The Morgentau plan is fulfilled ! I will bathe in Champagne, wash my cojones in Budweiser when that happens. And Israel ? What Israel ? You mean Palestine ? ahhhh :) I will feed a bagel to the ducks!
    And no, i don’t think it will be necessary to learn either Russian or Chinese, I think we might get along well enough.

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    • Replies: @Chris Mallory

    Sanction the American people to a dose of “concentration camp”, 900 calories a day, candle light, and horse drawn transportion!
     
    Not sure what you are huffing, but you don't know much about the US.

    The US has stores of grains and dairy just sitting. Other than fruits and vegetables during the winter, there is not much food we need to import.

    Natural gas produces most of the electricity in the US. And the US is the worlds largest natural gas producer. Add in hydro from our many rivers and the nuke plants and there is no need for candle light.

    Gas prices would rise, but we can produce our own.
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  113. Uncle Sam says:
    @Greasy William

    What happens to Israel when it receives tens of thousands of missiles from Lebanon
     
    The Lebanese people cease to exist.

    The IDF is already on record as saying that they will destroy every port, bridge, electrical plant and water treatment facility in Lebanon in the first 72 hours of the next war. This is to be done in conjunction with a massacre of all people living in the Lebanese border villages. These acts of destruction will be carried out entirely with aircraft and artillery so Hezbollah will have no means of defending against them.

    10s of thousands of Lebanese cockroaches will be killed by the IDF directly, but the remainder will die by the millions over the next few months from starvation and disease as they will have no food, no water, no electricity and this time they won't have the Saudi's to pay for their reconstruction.

    Gaza is gonna look like the French Riveria compared to Lebanon after the next war.

    Here lie the Lebanese people: 2000 BCE - 2019 CE.

    Greasy William, you are living in a fool’s paradise. Hezbollah and Lebanon now have very capable air defense systems (including the Russian SA-17). Israel will lose too many aircraft and be forced to fall back, while at the same time Israel’s cities will be struck with thousands of missiles and be pulverized with enormous civilian casualties.

    Israel faces total destruction if it gets into a war with Hezbollah. The Israeli political and military leadership are well aware of what would happen. That is why they are very cautious and actually afraid to get into another war with Hezbollah.

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  114. @Den Lille Abe
    All said US lost 1737 aircraft in the Vietnam war, to hostile action and a further 500 in accidents, approximately 58 000 KIA.
    Yes , i understand Vietnam is not Iran (Iran is not a rice paddy), but the US is not the same either, now it is a "professional" defense force, whose Navy rams defenseless civilian ships (or cant perform at all) , whose Air force planes keep falling from the sky and whose Army are best moving down civilians.
    Of course Iran would loose such a war, no doubt, but can the US sustain the losses, can public opinion ? Say 15 000 bodybags ? 25 000 ? 50 000?
    I doubt the US can even put 100 000 soldiers on the ground, combat soldiers, that is, not 3'rd echelon cooks and chauffeurs, very few armies can. Iran has got at least 5 000 000 trained people with ammo and a AK 47 or RPG eager to put a dent in the US. (China has between 15 - 40 Million they can draw from). Forget it, the Iranians can simply "trample" the US to death, at least until the US runs out of body bags.
    And consider if the US starts a war, we don't have to trade with it anymore, its under sanction, goodbye "Rare metals" (China), goodbye computer chips (China) goodbye everything, because the US cant produce anything (No factories) and has few resources left, hehe.
    Sanction the American people to a dose of "concentration camp", 900 calories a day, candle light, and horse drawn transportion! The Morgentau plan is fulfilled ! I will bathe in Champagne, wash my cojones in Budweiser when that happens. And Israel ? What Israel ? You mean Palestine ? ahhhh :) I will feed a bagel to the ducks!
    And no, i don't think it will be necessary to learn either Russian or Chinese, I think we might get along well enough.

    Sanction the American people to a dose of “concentration camp”, 900 calories a day, candle light, and horse drawn transportion!

    Not sure what you are huffing, but you don’t know much about the US.

    The US has stores of grains and dairy just sitting. Other than fruits and vegetables during the winter, there is not much food we need to import.

    Natural gas produces most of the electricity in the US. And the US is the worlds largest natural gas producer. Add in hydro from our many rivers and the nuke plants and there is no need for candle light.

    Gas prices would rise, but we can produce our own.

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    • Replies: @Den Lille Abe
    Your economy is an on time delivery system like the rest of the western world, but you are much more vulnerable, because of your size.
    And I am not puffing and huffing, I just silently hope you would fade away, but it is also ok with me if you disappear in civil strife. The more dead the better. The more ruin the better. The more wreckage and anarchy , the better. The more guns the better. The will be picked up from your dead, cold hands anyway.
    I have seen the US' true face.
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  115. @Chris Mallory

    Sanction the American people to a dose of “concentration camp”, 900 calories a day, candle light, and horse drawn transportion!
     
    Not sure what you are huffing, but you don't know much about the US.

    The US has stores of grains and dairy just sitting. Other than fruits and vegetables during the winter, there is not much food we need to import.

    Natural gas produces most of the electricity in the US. And the US is the worlds largest natural gas producer. Add in hydro from our many rivers and the nuke plants and there is no need for candle light.

    Gas prices would rise, but we can produce our own.

    Your economy is an on time delivery system like the rest of the western world, but you are much more vulnerable, because of your size.
    And I am not puffing and huffing, I just silently hope you would fade away, but it is also ok with me if you disappear in civil strife. The more dead the better. The more ruin the better. The more wreckage and anarchy , the better. The more guns the better. The will be picked up from your dead, cold hands anyway.
    I have seen the US’ true face.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chris Mallory
    The economy will adapt.
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  116. @Den Lille Abe
    Your economy is an on time delivery system like the rest of the western world, but you are much more vulnerable, because of your size.
    And I am not puffing and huffing, I just silently hope you would fade away, but it is also ok with me if you disappear in civil strife. The more dead the better. The more ruin the better. The more wreckage and anarchy , the better. The more guns the better. The will be picked up from your dead, cold hands anyway.
    I have seen the US' true face.

    The economy will adapt.

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  117. Deschutes says:
    @krollchem
    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles. Do you work for Unit 8200?

    Your wasting your time debating that smartass. He’s just trying to get you wound up. He gets his kicks by posting outrageous provocative shit in hopes to get you to overreact.

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  118. Deschutes says:
    @Den Lille Abe
    And more to the fact: We have not got a clue really on Iran' defensive capabilities..
    We do know, they dont give up and are apple to accept huge numbers of dead.
    My guess would be their streng lies in mostly defensive capabilities; missiles and lots of them.

    Iran has had more than 15 years to not only study how the USA/Israel fought against Iraq and later actually fight against the USA/Israel/ISIS team in Syria, but during all of this time they most likely have prepared massive fortifications for an immanent attack by USA.

    It is obvious that Israel/USA/NATO will do a massive sustained air attack on all the key targets. Iran knows this, so they will have put everything of value well under ground in fortified bunkers. Mind you, 15+ years of work is a very long time to prepare for this coming attack. There are limits to what you can do with air power in this context.

    I think all that USA/Israel can do is bomb the fuck out of Iran with air power. Yes, destroy all the cities, etc. But what after that? If USA sends in the Marines they will face a deeply entrenched enemy in underground fortifications in urban combat at close quarters. They will take enormous casualties so probably won’t invade.

    I guess the plan is to bomb the fuck out of Iran and then call it a day. Yep, that sounds like the American way of ‘winning hearts and minds’.

    Little wonder USA and Israel consistently top the list of “world’s most hated countries” polls.

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  119. The US went in and destroyed much in Iraq for insane reasons or maybe no reason at all. Yet no effort was made to de-nationalize Iraqi oil whose income remains the mainstay of the Iraqi government. Eric Margoulis states as incontrovertable fact that Israel means to seize Iran’s oil without invading Iran. That is physically and politically imposible.

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  120. @peterAUS

    You have no idea of the human costs of war. Perhaps you have not spent any time in a MASH unit treating the wounded.
     
    More "virtue signalling.
    O.K.

    A bit of surprising anger from a bookworm:

    Go back to your war porn and wet dreams of conquest.
     
    but that's O.K. too, if helps with depression. Still recommend to work on your social intelligence.

    As for this

    Interesting how you almost never try to educate using links to scholarly articles.
     
    that's an interesting approach to the issue at hand.
    I prefer current/ex military to scholars, but that's just me.
    Sea mines and mini/midget submarines, I mean.

    Do you work for Unit 8200?
     
    Do you for The Internet Research Agency, or whatever it's called now?

    You glow.

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