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    Kulivets & Ushakov – 2016 – Modeling Relationship between Cognitive Abilities and Economic Abstract: It's well established that there is a very close correlation between average national IQ and GDP per capita, especially when corrected for resource windfalls and Communism.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    No, it's not. There are OECD statistics about this. Americans work 1,800 hours per year. The "laziest" Europeans, Germans, work around 1,350 hours - not a cardinal difference.

    About the "family-orientated" Meds: Italy and Spain both around 1,700 hours, Greece - 2,000 hours (!). Rest assured they spend most of that time chatting and drinking coffee, unlike Germans or Americans, but still, that's time they don't spend around family and (non-work) friends.

    At the end of the day everybody wants more money for less effort and the influence of these cultural propensity to work differences might explain 10% of GDPpc variance but certainly not 50% of them.

    Rest assured they spend most of that time chatting and drinking coffee, unlike Germans or Americans

    My impression is that the Germans also spend a lot of time drinking coffee and chatting. Their advantage is reliability. If a German tells you that he finished a job, he really did finish it well. As opposed to an Indian, where you might find that despite his assurances that he’s just about to finish, in reality he hasn’t yet started. And not because he’s lazy, but because he didn’t understand the task at all, and is embarrassed to ask. Or the task was impossible in the first place, but he didn’t want to say no before his superiors signed the contract, and now it’s so totally embarrassing and he does everything possible to hide the fact.

    Now Europeans will usually won’t be so embarrassed, but some Europeans won’t care if their output might be faulty. After all, quality control will catch it anyway. So they will produce tons of faulty products, which will ultimately be very expensive. Either because faulty products are expensive, or because the production will need to be reorganized in a way which makes quality higher even with lax workers, with tons of controls at every turn, and that’s expensive, too. More expensive than having workers who care a lot for the quality of their output.

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  • The use of GDP vs IQ is complicated by the contributions from natural resources for country like Qatar where 100% of the incomes from oil and gas are included in the GDP.

    While KV see their graph as quadratic, I see that as ramp function as the upper envelope where there is a base level across all IQ values depending on national priority and a cut off value below which nations were not able to better organized themselves, even when there are local natural resources they are exploited by other countries with little income following to the native countries e.g. Nigeria, and the further higher the national average IQ the better they are in organizing themselves as well as managing foreign experts in their countries who might on average more able than them, with GDP increases in an ramp function shape, countries like Qatar or all the first world countries.

    While KV got their chart from simulation I got a similar shape chart from real values of NatureIndex WFC scores of reputatble scientific papers output, and came after that in reverse order to the conclusions same as KV used as assumptions for the simulation. Though the income from local natural resources might fund the R&D, the effects are much less. The WFC scores are also counted locally and the foreign experts have to be managed locally. The national GDP values can come from multi-national companies HQ in the countries concerned with incomes from outside the countries.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2jfesdh&s=9#.WfmEl5bZib4

    The datapoint for USA is way up and is omited as it might compressed the rest of
    the datapoints.

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  • @niteranger
    This is more simplistic nonsense from economists. Dr. Taleb is correct about these morons. All this assumes that the IQ and income from the countries is correct. For example, it assumes that all people from every country value money etc. over other things such as family and their time with friends etc. I know MDs that have visited Italy and they tell me that many MDs in Italy only work around 24 hours a week. They value the time with their family and friends more important than money. They have enough to make a good living. In the US many Mds work 60 hour work weeks. The US is obsessed with money. Many people can't enjoy their lives because they have fallen for the American Dream BS.

    Europeans typically take more vacations and work less than their American counterparts. Furthermore, there is no way to measure the underground economy of these nations which is wide spread in Russia and some parts of Europe. The underground economy in some of these countries may be over 30 to 40% according some people who have lived there. I have no idea how to measure it accurately but it's big. And therefore, GDPs may be much different than these graphs.

    People should take these numbers with a grain of salt, a lime and good Tequila.

    No, it’s not. There are OECD statistics about this. Americans work 1,800 hours per year. The “laziest” Europeans, Germans, work around 1,350 hours – not a cardinal difference.

    About the “family-orientated” Meds: Italy and Spain both around 1,700 hours, Greece – 2,000 hours (!). Rest assured they spend most of that time chatting and drinking coffee, unlike Germans or Americans, but still, that’s time they don’t spend around family and (non-work) friends.

    At the end of the day everybody wants more money for less effort and the influence of these cultural propensity to work differences might explain 10% of GDPpc variance but certainly not 50% of them.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Rest assured they spend most of that time chatting and drinking coffee, unlike Germans or Americans
     
    My impression is that the Germans also spend a lot of time drinking coffee and chatting. Their advantage is reliability. If a German tells you that he finished a job, he really did finish it well. As opposed to an Indian, where you might find that despite his assurances that he’s just about to finish, in reality he hasn’t yet started. And not because he’s lazy, but because he didn’t understand the task at all, and is embarrassed to ask. Or the task was impossible in the first place, but he didn’t want to say no before his superiors signed the contract, and now it’s so totally embarrassing and he does everything possible to hide the fact.

    Now Europeans will usually won’t be so embarrassed, but some Europeans won’t care if their output might be faulty. After all, quality control will catch it anyway. So they will produce tons of faulty products, which will ultimately be very expensive. Either because faulty products are expensive, or because the production will need to be reorganized in a way which makes quality higher even with lax workers, with tons of controls at every turn, and that’s expensive, too. More expensive than having workers who care a lot for the quality of their output.

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  • This is more simplistic nonsense from economists. Dr. Taleb is correct about these morons. All this assumes that the IQ and income from the countries is correct. For example, it assumes that all people from every country value money etc. over other things such as family and their time with friends etc. I know MDs that have visited Italy and they tell me that many MDs in Italy only work around 24 hours a week. They value the time with their family and friends more important than money. They have enough to make a good living. In the US many Mds work 60 hour work weeks. The US is obsessed with money. Many people can’t enjoy their lives because they have fallen for the American Dream BS.

    Europeans typically take more vacations and work less than their American counterparts. Furthermore, there is no way to measure the underground economy of these nations which is wide spread in Russia and some parts of Europe. The underground economy in some of these countries may be over 30 to 40% according some people who have lived there. I have no idea how to measure it accurately but it’s big. And therefore, GDPs may be much different than these graphs.

    People should take these numbers with a grain of salt, a lime and good Tequila.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    No, it's not. There are OECD statistics about this. Americans work 1,800 hours per year. The "laziest" Europeans, Germans, work around 1,350 hours - not a cardinal difference.

    About the "family-orientated" Meds: Italy and Spain both around 1,700 hours, Greece - 2,000 hours (!). Rest assured they spend most of that time chatting and drinking coffee, unlike Germans or Americans, but still, that's time they don't spend around family and (non-work) friends.

    At the end of the day everybody wants more money for less effort and the influence of these cultural propensity to work differences might explain 10% of GDPpc variance but certainly not 50% of them.
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  • @thaiboy
    So why Westerners hurt themselves inviting (or allowing their ‘democratic’ masters to invite) millions of immigrants to their countries? Oh, it's because of their superior cognitive abilities! Maybe if they had a bit lower IQ, they would not come up with such a brilliant idea?



    All this IQistry is pure bullshit. It's wisdom that really matters, not some imaginary ‘intelligence’.

    Note that IQ, GDP, income, etc. are Western concepts, products of Western society, Western culture, Western civilization — and not some ‘objective reality’. No wonder if these fictions happen to correlate with each other.

    “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” Nor it is measure of true intelligence.

    I would certainly agree with you that wisdom is much more of value than raw intelligence. I also agree with others that it cannot be measured – but then again one can certainly measure serotonin levels and fluctuations in body heat, but that hardly conveys the concept of falling in love. With both, you’ll usually be quite aware when in their presence.

    A note however; wisdom is also found in how you wish to convey your message to others. Without applying wisdom in conveying wisdom, your message may be lost in translation.

    Peace.

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  • @Mao Cheng Ji
    Pseudo-intellectual rathole where libertarianism copulates with Iq fundamentalism.
    Oh yeah: in my humble opinion.

    libertarianism copulates with Iq fundamentalism

    Good one.

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  • @thaiboy
    So why Westerners hurt themselves inviting (or allowing their ‘democratic’ masters to invite) millions of immigrants to their countries? Oh, it's because of their superior cognitive abilities! Maybe if they had a bit lower IQ, they would not come up with such a brilliant idea?



    All this IQistry is pure bullshit. It's wisdom that really matters, not some imaginary ‘intelligence’.

    Note that IQ, GDP, income, etc. are Western concepts, products of Western society, Western culture, Western civilization — and not some ‘objective reality’. No wonder if these fictions happen to correlate with each other.

    “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” Nor it is measure of true intelligence.

    Existentialism is no basis for scientific research, m’dear.

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  • Pseudo-intellectual rathole where libertarianism copulates with Iq fundamentalism.
    Oh yeah: in my humble opinion.

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    • Replies: @utu
    libertarianism copulates with Iq fundamentalism

    Good one.
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  • @WHAT
    Measure wisdom.

    Measure wisdom.

    I’ll add another one: measuring being cultured.

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  • @thaiboy
    So why Westerners hurt themselves inviting (or allowing their ‘democratic’ masters to invite) millions of immigrants to their countries? Oh, it's because of their superior cognitive abilities! Maybe if they had a bit lower IQ, they would not come up with such a brilliant idea?



    All this IQistry is pure bullshit. It's wisdom that really matters, not some imaginary ‘intelligence’.

    Note that IQ, GDP, income, etc. are Western concepts, products of Western society, Western culture, Western civilization — and not some ‘objective reality’. No wonder if these fictions happen to correlate with each other.

    “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” Nor it is measure of true intelligence.

    Measure wisdom.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Measure wisdom.
     
    I'll add another one: measuring being cultured.
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  • This is superspergy theory and GIGOrific empiricism.

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  • So why Westerners hurt themselves inviting (or allowing their ‘democratic’ masters to invite) millions of immigrants to their countries? Oh, it’s because of their superior cognitive abilities! Maybe if they had a bit lower IQ, they would not come up with such a brilliant idea?

    [MORE]

    All this IQistry is pure bullshit. It’s wisdom that really matters, not some imaginary ‘intelligence’.

    Note that IQ, GDP, income, etc. are Western concepts, products of Western society, Western culture, Western civilization — and not some ‘objective reality’. No wonder if these fictions happen to correlate with each other.

    “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” Nor it is measure of true intelligence.

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    • Replies: @WHAT
    Measure wisdom.
    , @Anonymous
    Existentialism is no basis for scientific research, m'dear.
    , @Talha
    I would certainly agree with you that wisdom is much more of value than raw intelligence. I also agree with others that it cannot be measured - but then again one can certainly measure serotonin levels and fluctuations in body heat, but that hardly conveys the concept of falling in love. With both, you’ll usually be quite aware when in their presence.

    A note however; wisdom is also found in how you wish to convey your message to others. Without applying wisdom in conveying wisdom, your message may be lost in translation.

    Peace.

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  • Why there is large spread in D values (model output) for virtually the same values of I (model input)? The spread seems to be larger for larger values of competence I.

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  • Africa has more than 50 political entities and more than a billion people with some of the highest concentrations of genetic and cultural diversity on the planet. For every destitute failure like Niger, you have some country that bucks the stereotype and dispels some of the doom and gloom that predominates in HBD-realistic commentary about...
  • @Anonymous
    HBD types will say those Bermudan blacks have a drop of white blood, and thats what makes them smart.

    I doubt if the percentages of white blood in Bermudan blacks is very different to US blacks.

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  • @TelfoedJohn
    There is very little black-white IQ difference in Bermuda: http://humanvarietiesdotorg.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/table2bermuda.jpg

    You would think this would give HBD types food for thought, but they appear to be completely uninterested.

    HBD types will say those Bermudan blacks have a drop of white blood, and thats what makes them smart.

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    • Replies: @TelfoedJohn
    I doubt if the percentages of white blood in Bermudan blacks is very different to US blacks.
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  • @jim jones
    They sure look African to me:

    http://imgur.com/a/pa6DJ

    That’s not a Habesha , that’s some random ethnic group on the periphery

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  • biz says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    About Ethiopian Africanness or lack thereof, I can only quote my correspondent once again, who seems very well informed on the matter:

    ...aaand I see the people claiming the Ethiopians aren't "real" Africans.

    Ethiopians are made up of half a dozen different ethnic groups, but -- I'm simplifying a super complicated history here -- to a first approximation, they're all Nilotic peoples with a sprinkling of Arab. Nilotics are the tall, skinny, very dark-skinned phenotype that you see all over East Africa from Sudan down through Kenya all the way to Tanzania. The Masai are typical Nilotics, as are the Luo. (The Luo are the ethnic group of President Obama's father -- they're basically Masai who moved to town a few centuries back, giving up cattle herding to become mercenaries and merchants.)* Many Nilotics speak Nilotic languages, but the phenotype is found over much larger area than the languages.

    The Arab component comes from right across the Red Sea. I mean, look at a map. Ethiopia invaded Arabia several times -- one such invasion was just finishing up when Mohammed was a young person, and is mentioned in the Koran. In general, there was a huge amount of coming and going over the centuries. The Ethiopians claim that the Queen of Sheba (who came from what's now Saba, in Yemen) was really Ethiopian. Eritreans and Somalis are basically the same, except with a bigger infusion of Arab blood, especially in Somalia. So if Ethiopians aren't "real" Africans, then neither are Sudanese, Eritreans, Somalis, or about half the population of Kenya.

    (Again, this is a gross oversimplification because East Africa is one of the most genetically complex and varied regions in the world. Which is what you'd expect, right?)

    Calling Ethiopians Semitic just makes me sigh. Yes, they speak a language that's Afro-Asiatic, the same family that includes Arabic and Hebrew. But so do the Hausa of Nigeria, and nobody's calling them Semites. It's like saying that Bolivians are Nordics because they speak an Indo-European language.

    Honestly, it's a "no true Scotsman" argument: if Africans are succeeding, then they can't be real Africans!
     

    Calling Ethiopians Semitic just makes me sigh. Yes, they speak a language that’s Afro-Asiatic, the same family that includes Arabic and Hebrew. But so do the Hausa of Nigeria, and nobody’s calling them Semites.

    As a point of fact, highland Ethiopians such as the Amhara and Tigryna speak actual Semitic languages. This implies a closer cultural and historical connection of highland Ethiopians to the Middle East than would apply to non-Semitic Afro-Asiatic speakers elsewhere in Africa.

    Afro-Asiatic is a language superfamily analogous to Indo-European. Semitic is a much more closely related sub-family family within Afro-Asiatic, analogous to maybe Slavic languages.

    Why is there so much misinformation on this website?

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  • @silviosilver

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.
     
    It won't happen any time soon. The electoral prospects of the ruling party at the time Kosovo declared independence immediately disintegrated, even though they opposed independence.

    Maybe. As far as I know both countries are engaging in EU accession talks.

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  • @silviosilver

    Ethiopia probably won’t be first world any time soon. It still seems better than the majority of black countries. For example I think it’s way better than South Africa, which is only richer because of the whites.
     
    Ethiopia's economy ranks smack in the middle of African countries. Despite this ordinal rank, its per capita GDP is closer to the countries at the bottom than to countries at the top, so it is far from being a top performer.

    The only way to consider it "way better" than South Africa is in terms of its apparently rosy prospects. I too wish them well, but it's surely too early to consider their rise a foregone conclusion.

    They have very few natural resources, and subsistence farming or export-oriented monoculture by multinational corporations (most of the non-mining economy in other countries) is quite difficult, too. As to South Africa, subtract the whites, and you get Zimbabwe. Obviously Ethiopia is better than that, and without the toxic “anti-racist” looter mentality.

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  • Foreign investment (mainly Chinese here) has been pouring into infrastructure.

    I wonder how long it’ll take the usual suspects to quash this like they did to China’s investment in Pireaus, (Greece), so they could bring the country to its knees as a warning to others.

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  • @heh

    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.
     
    Weak countries get dominated by stronger countries, but who is weak or strong is is not set in stone. But given Ethiopia's massive demographic advantage over its much smaller neighbours it had literally no excuse.

    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.
     
    Precisely. And that wasn't inevitable either. As I already told you: you're treating historic events as if they are falling from the sky rather than as a result of guile and skill of their political leaders, which must come from the national culture.

    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.
     
    It would provide political stability. Ethiopia wouldn't have made it to Taiwanese levels but surely to where India is today, but they failed to dominate much smaller states. It's actually incredible how incompetent that turned out to be.

    As I already told you: you’re treating historic events as if they are falling from the sky rather than as a result of guile and skill of their political leaders, which must come from the national culture.

    Pardon me if I’m wrong, but you appear to believe that uncontrollable environmental factors never prove decisive in history.

    Put aside obvious ones like famine or drought, plain old luck is sometimes all it takes to lay waste to the best made plans. You could be the best server in tennis history, but that doesn’t mean you’ll never double-fault. If you double-fault facing match point, you’re toast – I bet the international relations equivalent has happened more than a few times throughout the long history of mankind.

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  • @reiner Tor
    It doesn't look like an independent country, more like a protectorate, and it seems likely that it will never change. Should a great turmoil come, it could only make things worse for them.

    And yes, recognition is not forthcoming from China or Russia. Not from countries hostile to the US, nor from countries with separatist provinces, unless US or EU bribes can make them recognize it.

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.

    It won’t happen any time soon. The electoral prospects of the ruling party at the time Kosovo declared independence immediately disintegrated, even though they opposed independence.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Maybe. As far as I know both countries are engaging in EU accession talks.
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  • Interesting article. I will definitely continue doing research on Ethiopia. The country has always fascinated me. As mentioned above, they are the only African country that wasn’t colonized. Also, they have a written history as opposed to most other black African countries that only recorded history orally. I’m of Nigerian descent and I’ve always been jealous of Ethiopian women and other East African women. Most of the Ethiopian women I know have to beat men of all races off them with a stick. Also, they can have white looking children if they intermarry with whites.

    I will keep my fingers crossed that Ethiopia manages to develop. Many Ethiopians are not black like your typical sub-saharan African person, but it’d still be great to see them succeed.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I talked with a Taiwanese person about this once.

    He said while most would prefer independence, nobody (at least in the lower ranks) is going to fight the PLA for it.

    I talked with a Taiwanese person about this once.

    I had this Chinese friend once. Later I found out he was from Taiwan. One day we were talking about the PLA’s victory in the civil war and I asked him why the PLA didn’t just continue onto Taiwan and finish the job. He became somewhat upset and told me I shouldn’t ask questions like that because for him it’s a sensitive ethnic issue, rather than merely political or economic.

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  • @reiner Tor
    Ethiopia probably won't be first world any time soon. It still seems better than the majority of black countries. For example I think it's way better than South Africa, which is only richer because of the whites.

    Ethiopia probably won’t be first world any time soon. It still seems better than the majority of black countries. For example I think it’s way better than South Africa, which is only richer because of the whites.

    Ethiopia’s economy ranks smack in the middle of African countries. Despite this ordinal rank, its per capita GDP is closer to the countries at the bottom than to countries at the top, so it is far from being a top performer.

    The only way to consider it “way better” than South Africa is in terms of its apparently rosy prospects. I too wish them well, but it’s surely too early to consider their rise a foregone conclusion.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    They have very few natural resources, and subsistence farming or export-oriented monoculture by multinational corporations (most of the non-mining economy in other countries) is quite difficult, too. As to South Africa, subtract the whites, and you get Zimbabwe. Obviously Ethiopia is better than that, and without the toxic "anti-racist" looter mentality.
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  • Hey Bliss,

    Neither Jews nor Christians have ever given a damn about the Kaaba.

    Yup.

    What does that tell you?

    That neither Jews nor Christians have ever given a damn about the Kaaba.

    Did anyone call arabs ishmaelites before they became muslims and started claiming that heritage?

    Only the famous 1st century Jewish-Roman historian, Josephus:
    “Chapter 12.
    “Concerning Abimelech: and concerning Ismael the son of Abraham: and concerning the Arabians, which were his posterity.
    “But as for the Arabians, they circumcise after the thirteenth year: because Ismael, the founder of their nation, who was born to Abraham of the concubine, was circumcised at that age; concerning whom I will presently give a particular account, with great exactness.”

    http://penelope.uchicago.edu/josephus/ant-1.html

    Again, what does that tell you?

    That I’ve been taking you way too seriously?

    I need a little respite from the intellectual butt-kicking I’m receiving at your capable hands – I won’t be able to sit down for a week. I’d appreciate that the conversation ends here.

    Peace.

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  • @Talha

    This is absurd.
     
    Yeah - this is getting pretty absurd.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?
     
    Why would they care? It is evidence enough that they called them Ishmaelites to affirm their Abrahamic origins. The Ishmaelites recorded their own history. You don't believe in the veracity of the Ishmaelite narrative - which is fine with us. Why should that bother me?

    As far as the Torah is concerned - since you keep bringing it up:
    "And as for Ishmael, I have heard you: I will surely bless him; I will make him fruitful and will greatly increase his numbers. He will be the father of twelve rulers, and I will make him into a great nation." Genesis 17:20

    Is there anybody else that can historically lay claim to being the Ishmaelite "great nation"? Or are we waiting for somebody out of Peru or maybe Tuvalu?

    Peace.

    Why would they care? It is evidence enough that they called them Ishmaelites to affirm their Abrahamic origins.

    Sheer stupidity. They care enough to call them “ishmaelites” but not enough to agree that the Kaaba was built by their prophet Abraham? Neither Jews nor Christians have ever given a damn about the Kaaba. What does that tell you?

    Did anyone call arabs ishmaelites before they became muslims and started claiming that heritage? Of course not. Again, what does that tell you?

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  • @Bliss
    This is absurd. You reject the veracity of the “revealed” Torah/Old Testament in favor of the opinions of people who were not “prophets” writing many centuries later, after the Muslim conquests.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?

    This is absurd.

    Yeah – this is getting pretty absurd.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?

    Why would they care? It is evidence enough that they called them Ishmaelites to affirm their Abrahamic origins. The Ishmaelites recorded their own history. You don’t believe in the veracity of the Ishmaelite narrative – which is fine with us. Why should that bother me?

    As far as the Torah is concerned – since you keep bringing it up:
    “And as for Ishmael, I have heard you: I will surely bless him; I will make him fruitful and will greatly increase his numbers. He will be the father of twelve rulers, and I will make him into a great nation.” Genesis 17:20

    Is there anybody else that can historically lay claim to being the Ishmaelite “great nation”? Or are we waiting for somebody out of Peru or maybe Tuvalu?

    Peace.

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    • Replies: @Bliss

    Why would they care? It is evidence enough that they called them Ishmaelites to affirm their Abrahamic origins.
     
    Sheer stupidity. They care enough to call them “ishmaelites” but not enough to agree that the Kaaba was built by their prophet Abraham? Neither Jews nor Christians have ever given a damn about the Kaaba. What does that tell you?

    Did anyone call arabs ishmaelites before they became muslims and started claiming that heritage? Of course not. Again, what does that tell you?
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  • @Bliss

    the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn’t a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we’re concerned
     
    What an ass-backwards, illogical point. Could only be made by a brainwashed fool. You really think the imitation should be considered the “starting point” instead of the original?

    Show us where the story of Abraham originates if not in the Torah. Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple. Or that he ventured anywhere near the vicinity of Mecca.

    Don’t be rude to Talha.

    Muslims are our enemies but their religion deserves our respect. I would say Judaism and Islam agree on about 95% of the major issues.

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  • @Talha
    Hey Bliss,

    You say it is an imitation - I mean how else does one explain the similarities right? Well, there are two rational explanations:
    1) It is a rip-off.
    2) It is exactly what it says it is - a revelation from the same Divine source that has come to set the record straight.

    Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple.
     
    Correct, it is not concerned with his travels to visit his son Ishmael (pbuh) in the desert wilderness to which he was exiled.

    When the Muslims first made contact with the greater Christian world it was not seen as a new religion. Rather, it was seen as a heresy. The Muslims were called everything from "The Sons of Hagar" to "Ishmaelites" to "Saracens". The first polemic penned against Islam was by John of Damascus - it was called the "Heresy of the Ismaelites":
    "They are descended from Ishmael, [who] was born to Abraham of Agar, and for this reason they are called both Agarenes and Ishmaelites. They are also called Saracens, which is derived from Sarras kenoi, or destitute of Sara, because of what Agar said to the angel: ‘Sara hath sent me away destitute.’ [99] These used to be idolaters and worshiped the morning star and Aphrodite, whom in their own language they called Khabár, which means great. [100] And so down to the time of Heraclius they were very great idolaters."

    http://orthodoxinfo.com/general/stjohn_islam.aspx

    "..but despite the inauspicious beginning, the conquest of Jerusalem by Caliph Omar in 637 was welcomed by some Jews as a release from Christian oppression. In the following Jewish apocalyptic tract composed soon afterward, Esau stands for Rome/Byzantium.Christendom and Ishmael for the Muslims:
    ...The angel Metatron at once answered him. ‘Fear not, O son of man! The Holy One, blessed be He, brings the kingdom of Ishmael only to save you from this wicked one (Rome) He will send a prophet to them and conquer the Land [of Israel]…And the second king who arises from Ishmael will love [the people of] Israel and conquer all the kingdoms.'"
    Historical Dictionary of Judaism

    Why were both Jews and Christians of late antiquity calling the conquering Arabs Ishmaelites?

    Peace.

    This is absurd. You reject the veracity of the “revealed” Torah/Old Testament in favor of the opinions of people who were not “prophets” writing many centuries later, after the Muslim conquests.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?

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    • Replies: @Talha

    This is absurd.
     
    Yeah - this is getting pretty absurd.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?
     
    Why would they care? It is evidence enough that they called them Ishmaelites to affirm their Abrahamic origins. The Ishmaelites recorded their own history. You don't believe in the veracity of the Ishmaelite narrative - which is fine with us. Why should that bother me?

    As far as the Torah is concerned - since you keep bringing it up:
    "And as for Ishmael, I have heard you: I will surely bless him; I will make him fruitful and will greatly increase his numbers. He will be the father of twelve rulers, and I will make him into a great nation." Genesis 17:20

    Is there anybody else that can historically lay claim to being the Ishmaelite "great nation"? Or are we waiting for somebody out of Peru or maybe Tuvalu?

    Peace.
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  • @Bliss

    the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn’t a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we’re concerned
     
    What an ass-backwards, illogical point. Could only be made by a brainwashed fool. You really think the imitation should be considered the “starting point” instead of the original?

    Show us where the story of Abraham originates if not in the Torah. Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple. Or that he ventured anywhere near the vicinity of Mecca.

    Hey Bliss,

    You say it is an imitation – I mean how else does one explain the similarities right? Well, there are two rational explanations:
    1) It is a rip-off.
    2) It is exactly what it says it is – a revelation from the same Divine source that has come to set the record straight.

    Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple.

    Correct, it is not concerned with his travels to visit his son Ishmael (pbuh) in the desert wilderness to which he was exiled.

    When the Muslims first made contact with the greater Christian world it was not seen as a new religion. Rather, it was seen as a heresy. The Muslims were called everything from “The Sons of Hagar” to “Ishmaelites” to “Saracens”. The first polemic penned against Islam was by John of Damascus – it was called the “Heresy of the Ismaelites”:
    “They are descended from Ishmael, [who] was born to Abraham of Agar, and for this reason they are called both Agarenes and Ishmaelites. They are also called Saracens, which is derived from Sarras kenoi, or destitute of Sara, because of what Agar said to the angel: ‘Sara hath sent me away destitute.’ [99] These used to be idolaters and worshiped the morning star and Aphrodite, whom in their own language they called Khabár, which means great. [100] And so down to the time of Heraclius they were very great idolaters.”

    http://orthodoxinfo.com/general/stjohn_islam.aspx

    “..but despite the inauspicious beginning, the conquest of Jerusalem by Caliph Omar in 637 was welcomed by some Jews as a release from Christian oppression. In the following Jewish apocalyptic tract composed soon afterward, Esau stands for Rome/Byzantium.Christendom and Ishmael for the Muslims:
    …The angel Metatron at once answered him. ‘Fear not, O son of man! The Holy One, blessed be He, brings the kingdom of Ishmael only to save you from this wicked one (Rome) He will send a prophet to them and conquer the Land [of Israel]…And the second king who arises from Ishmael will love [the people of] Israel and conquer all the kingdoms.’”
    Historical Dictionary of Judaism

    Why were both Jews and Christians of late antiquity calling the conquering Arabs Ishmaelites?

    Peace.

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    • Replies: @Bliss
    This is absurd. You reject the veracity of the “revealed” Torah/Old Testament in favor of the opinions of people who were not “prophets” writing many centuries later, after the Muslim conquests.

    Show us where any of the people you quote agree that the pagan Kaaba was actually built by Abraham?
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  • @Talha
    Hey Bliss,

    Thanks, but the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn't a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we're concerned. If you believe in its inerrancy, most welcome - but we'll pass. You don't have to believe our version of events but let's not kid ourselves as if either one of us has some kind of solid empirical evidence for our claims.

    As far as #2, of course not - they have always only been concerned with the line of Isaac (pbuh). As far as they're concerned, Ishmael (pbuh) has as much significance as Esau - a supporting cast member, nothing more.

    The rest is conjecture that is refuted by the narrative that the former pagans themselves brought out of the sands of Arabia. Who do you think the first Muslims were?

    Peace.

    the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn’t a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we’re concerned

    What an ass-backwards, illogical point. Could only be made by a brainwashed fool. You really think the imitation should be considered the “starting point” instead of the original?

    Show us where the story of Abraham originates if not in the Torah. Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple. Or that he ventured anywhere near the vicinity of Mecca.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Bliss,

    You say it is an imitation - I mean how else does one explain the similarities right? Well, there are two rational explanations:
    1) It is a rip-off.
    2) It is exactly what it says it is - a revelation from the same Divine source that has come to set the record straight.

    Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple.
     
    Correct, it is not concerned with his travels to visit his son Ishmael (pbuh) in the desert wilderness to which he was exiled.

    When the Muslims first made contact with the greater Christian world it was not seen as a new religion. Rather, it was seen as a heresy. The Muslims were called everything from "The Sons of Hagar" to "Ishmaelites" to "Saracens". The first polemic penned against Islam was by John of Damascus - it was called the "Heresy of the Ismaelites":
    "They are descended from Ishmael, [who] was born to Abraham of Agar, and for this reason they are called both Agarenes and Ishmaelites. They are also called Saracens, which is derived from Sarras kenoi, or destitute of Sara, because of what Agar said to the angel: ‘Sara hath sent me away destitute.’ [99] These used to be idolaters and worshiped the morning star and Aphrodite, whom in their own language they called Khabár, which means great. [100] And so down to the time of Heraclius they were very great idolaters."

    http://orthodoxinfo.com/general/stjohn_islam.aspx

    "..but despite the inauspicious beginning, the conquest of Jerusalem by Caliph Omar in 637 was welcomed by some Jews as a release from Christian oppression. In the following Jewish apocalyptic tract composed soon afterward, Esau stands for Rome/Byzantium.Christendom and Ishmael for the Muslims:
    ...The angel Metatron at once answered him. ‘Fear not, O son of man! The Holy One, blessed be He, brings the kingdom of Ishmael only to save you from this wicked one (Rome) He will send a prophet to them and conquer the Land [of Israel]…And the second king who arises from Ishmael will love [the people of] Israel and conquer all the kingdoms.'"
    Historical Dictionary of Judaism

    Why were both Jews and Christians of late antiquity calling the conquering Arabs Ishmaelites?

    Peace.
    , @Greasy William
    Don't be rude to Talha.

    Muslims are our enemies but their religion deserves our respect. I would say Judaism and Islam agree on about 95% of the major issues.
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  • @Jaakko Raipala
    Why would I blame culture and not the system when my country votes in right-wing and anti-poz politicians who then give us left-wing turbo-poz policies once they're in power? We've been voting for anti-immigration for a long time now, our candidates get through and then they give us more immigration once in power.

    It's not even about immigration, the same holds for every issue. Democracy is a lie and our system is just rule by unelected party elites; we only get to vote for which puppet pushes the vote button in the parliament according to however his party bosses want him to vote. Democracy was supposed to be a system where we can depose the ruling class without a violent revolution, instead it's just another tool of legitimizing rule by an entrenched elite class that cannot be removed without revolution.

    Sounds like a party primary system for political candidates would be a breath of fresh air. At the very least, each district would get to select its preferred electoral candidate, not the party leaders.

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  • @Jaakko Raipala
    Why would I blame culture and not the system when my country votes in right-wing and anti-poz politicians who then give us left-wing turbo-poz policies once they're in power? We've been voting for anti-immigration for a long time now, our candidates get through and then they give us more immigration once in power.

    It's not even about immigration, the same holds for every issue. Democracy is a lie and our system is just rule by unelected party elites; we only get to vote for which puppet pushes the vote button in the parliament according to however his party bosses want him to vote. Democracy was supposed to be a system where we can depose the ruling class without a violent revolution, instead it's just another tool of legitimizing rule by an entrenched elite class that cannot be removed without revolution.

    Its easy to claim “its just culture” without noting that democracy tends to enable the social welfare state, shifting into a top heavy situation where eventually insane solutions like mass immigration become reasonable; not to mention the original ridiculousness of increasing the vote to build your base. Long before immigration was a thought, the US extended franchise first to all white men, then to all men, and then to universal suffrage and soon will rapidly proceed to include the entire world of living, breathing dummies. The main source of this was almost always because one party felt that by increasing the voter base of a favorable bloc, the party would benefit.

    Its the rules of the game. Win through votes. To maximize winning, increase your voting base however possible.

    So yes, democracy innately brings about structural problems which seem to pretty inevitably take us to cultural destruction. This isn’t to indicate that there aren’t problems with autocracy, but democracy is indeed a god that fails.

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    • Agree: reiner Tor, Talha
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  • @heh
    Sweden was a one-party state and only a democracy on paper from the 1930s to mid-70s. It did just fine in that period. Japan was the same for much of the postwar period and they are doing fine. I've been reading about their imminent collapse - any day now! - for 20 years. It isn't happening. Their per capita GDP is highest ever once you adjust for currency/inflation(or deflation in their case). Meanwhile 'positive demographics' France is struggling.

    Point is, I think it's puerile to blame a system for a cultural failure. Same reason why I chuckle when I see Indians blaming democracy(then explain America) or large population(explain China) for their country's woes.

    Your comment smells the same. We're dealing with a deeper cultural rot here. It isn't so simple to blame it on democracy. Cuba imported lots of Africans because Che wanted a less white country. It was done under a de facto dictatorship.

    Point is, democracy or not is really a red herring and a total diversion. You can have a nationalist culture and you'll be fine with or without democracy. If you don't, you'll be fucked eventually with whichever system you choose. Western countries don't want to face the fact that their culture may have gotten them where they are, but it's total shit at keeping them there. I'm not even talking about always dominating the world. Just basic survival instinct. That's what is at play here, not democracy or autocracy or any other political system. It's the cultural rot.

    Why would I blame culture and not the system when my country votes in right-wing and anti-poz politicians who then give us left-wing turbo-poz policies once they’re in power? We’ve been voting for anti-immigration for a long time now, our candidates get through and then they give us more immigration once in power.

    It’s not even about immigration, the same holds for every issue. Democracy is a lie and our system is just rule by unelected party elites; we only get to vote for which puppet pushes the vote button in the parliament according to however his party bosses want him to vote. Democracy was supposed to be a system where we can depose the ruling class without a violent revolution, instead it’s just another tool of legitimizing rule by an entrenched elite class that cannot be removed without revolution.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Its easy to claim "its just culture" without noting that democracy tends to enable the social welfare state, shifting into a top heavy situation where eventually insane solutions like mass immigration become reasonable; not to mention the original ridiculousness of increasing the vote to build your base. Long before immigration was a thought, the US extended franchise first to all white men, then to all men, and then to universal suffrage and soon will rapidly proceed to include the entire world of living, breathing dummies. The main source of this was almost always because one party felt that by increasing the voter base of a favorable bloc, the party would benefit.

    Its the rules of the game. Win through votes. To maximize winning, increase your voting base however possible.

    So yes, democracy innately brings about structural problems which seem to pretty inevitably take us to cultural destruction. This isn't to indicate that there aren't problems with autocracy, but democracy is indeed a god that fails.

    , @Johann Ricke
    Sounds like a party primary system for political candidates would be a breath of fresh air. At the very least, each district would get to select its preferred electoral candidate, not the party leaders.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anon

    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that.
     
    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.

    Switzerland is also landlocked. It’s still rich as hell.
     
    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.
     
    Ethiopia's neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland's.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.

    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.

    LOL. Black countries are poor because they are surrounded by other poor black countries. And those other countries are poor because they are next to Ethiopia, which is a poor black country.

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  • @5371
    Statistics out of Africa are fantasy. So are wartime atrocity stories. Ethiopians have done worse things than they have suffered throughout history, including in Eritrea, which they have often possessed and always demanded. They are negroes. Just a Homeric LOL at the idea that their next fifty years will be like the last fifty of Korea.

    Doesn’t Mussolini get any credit for freeing 420,000 slaves when he occupied Etiopia?

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  • heh says:
    @Jaakko Raipala
    My theory is that democracy can work great for a while in a state inherited as a homogeneous, educated and stable entity from some authoritarian state but it decays over time into systems of professional politicians and parties that rig the system to their own advantage. That's why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe - the system has had less time to corrupt itself.

    When we moved from a quasi-feudal system of estates to full democracy a hundred years ago, the first elected parliaments did not of course have career politicians nor were there lock-ins like state financing of the establishment parties that we have now. Instead people ran on reputations that they had gained elsewhere so landowners picked one of theirs that they trusted the most and campaigned for him, the workers picked the union guy among them who had been good at negotiating with the bosses and so on.

    This is totally different now when a lot of the people in parliament have no experience of career outside of politics at all. Every party offers drones who've been training to be professional politicians since they were teenagers. They have image consulting companies tell them which clothes to wear and which buzzwords to repeat on TV and then they have the party machine tell them which button to press in the parliamentary votes. We didn't have those party machines back in the day - most political parties were originally just somewhat vetted lists of people with a common interest.

    There is no mechanism whatsoever to enforce a connection between the pre-election promises and actual parliamentary votes of politicians but the party machines ruthlessly enforce most voting choices on their politicians. The evolution of our so called democracy over the century has been one big story of moving power away from the directly elected representatives to the party organizations who are only influenced by donors and people who have made professional careers in the party organization.

    Sweden was a one-party state and only a democracy on paper from the 1930s to mid-70s. It did just fine in that period. Japan was the same for much of the postwar period and they are doing fine. I’ve been reading about their imminent collapse – any day now! – for 20 years. It isn’t happening. Their per capita GDP is highest ever once you adjust for currency/inflation(or deflation in their case). Meanwhile ‘positive demographics’ France is struggling.

    Point is, I think it’s puerile to blame a system for a cultural failure. Same reason why I chuckle when I see Indians blaming democracy(then explain America) or large population(explain China) for their country’s woes.

    Your comment smells the same. We’re dealing with a deeper cultural rot here. It isn’t so simple to blame it on democracy. Cuba imported lots of Africans because Che wanted a less white country. It was done under a de facto dictatorship.

    Point is, democracy or not is really a red herring and a total diversion. You can have a nationalist culture and you’ll be fine with or without democracy. If you don’t, you’ll be fucked eventually with whichever system you choose. Western countries don’t want to face the fact that their culture may have gotten them where they are, but it’s total shit at keeping them there. I’m not even talking about always dominating the world. Just basic survival instinct. That’s what is at play here, not democracy or autocracy or any other political system. It’s the cultural rot.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
    Why would I blame culture and not the system when my country votes in right-wing and anti-poz politicians who then give us left-wing turbo-poz policies once they're in power? We've been voting for anti-immigration for a long time now, our candidates get through and then they give us more immigration once in power.

    It's not even about immigration, the same holds for every issue. Democracy is a lie and our system is just rule by unelected party elites; we only get to vote for which puppet pushes the vote button in the parliament according to however his party bosses want him to vote. Democracy was supposed to be a system where we can depose the ruling class without a violent revolution, instead it's just another tool of legitimizing rule by an entrenched elite class that cannot be removed without revolution.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • heh says:
    @Anon

    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that.
     
    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.

    Switzerland is also landlocked. It’s still rich as hell.
     
    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.
     
    Ethiopia's neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland's.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.

    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.

    Weak countries get dominated by stronger countries, but who is weak or strong is is not set in stone. But given Ethiopia’s massive demographic advantage over its much smaller neighbours it had literally no excuse.

    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.

    Precisely. And that wasn’t inevitable either. As I already told you: you’re treating historic events as if they are falling from the sky rather than as a result of guile and skill of their political leaders, which must come from the national culture.

    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.

    It would provide political stability. Ethiopia wouldn’t have made it to Taiwanese levels but surely to where India is today, but they failed to dominate much smaller states. It’s actually incredible how incompetent that turned out to be.

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    • Replies: @silviosilver

    As I already told you: you’re treating historic events as if they are falling from the sky rather than as a result of guile and skill of their political leaders, which must come from the national culture.
     
    Pardon me if I'm wrong, but you appear to believe that uncontrollable environmental factors never prove decisive in history.

    Put aside obvious ones like famine or drought, plain old luck is sometimes all it takes to lay waste to the best made plans. You could be the best server in tennis history, but that doesn't mean you'll never double-fault. If you double-fault facing match point, you're toast - I bet the international relations equivalent has happened more than a few times throughout the long history of mankind.
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  • @Daniil Adamov
    It's odd since, from an HBD perspective and taking Yekatit 12 (which I never even heard of before; have to say it worsens my opinion of Mussolini and his government considerably) into account, they would have a much more plausible case for the White Man being to blame for their misfortunes than many.

    Worsens your opinion of Mussolini?
    Was it good earlier?

    That would be unfortunate if your name is really Daniil Adamov:

    “When dealing with such a race as Slavic – inferior and barbaric – we must not pursue the carrot, but the stick policy. We should not be afraid of new victims… …I would say we can easily sacrifice 500,000 barbaric Slavs for 50,000 Italians.”
    — Benito Mussolini, 20 September 1920

    On top of that, in the Italian concentration camp of Rab, which was primarily for these ‘barbaric Slavs’, they put Slavs in tents and Jews in houses to show these lowly Slavs they’re inferior to Jews in the eyes of fascists.

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  • @Shaka
    South Africa is not a hellhole I don't know what you're talking about.

    South Africa is paradise defined. I look forward to the first fusion reactor coming from them!

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-03-31/south-africas-sacp-warns-of-looting-at-treasury-after-zuma-axes-finance-minister

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    • LOL: reiner Tor, Dan Hayes
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  • @Greasy William

    We can easily change our positions as new evidence emerges.
     
    What new evidence? All I see is data showing that clearly non black Ethiopians are slowly making their nation into less of a Hell hole then it has historically been. I see nothing to indicate Nigeria or South Africa will ever be capable of doing the same for their own nations.

    Blacks are cool*. I'm rooting for them. But facts are facts.

    I think what probably happened is Anatoly has met some African girl studying in Moscow that he likes and it is causing him to go through an Afrophile phase. He will probably be blaming Africa's failures on Western imperialism by this time next year. But life has a way of breaking us down and eventually he will reach enlightenment about the intellectual inferiority of the negro.

    *Not including BLM types who another group included in the Greasy Global Genocide initiative

    South Africa is not a hellhole I don’t know what you’re talking about.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    South Africa is paradise defined. I look forward to the first fusion reactor coming from them!

    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-03-31/south-africas-sacp-warns-of-looting-at-treasury-after-zuma-axes-finance-minister
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  • @AP
    Ethiopia contains many different ethnicities. Your link is to someone from a more typical Sub-Saharan African tribal group. This is a minority within Ethiopia. The numerically and politically dominant ethnic groups (Oromo and especially Amhara) in Ethiopia are mixed Semites-Africans.

    This article by Razib Khan has a picture of a pretty Amhara woman.

    Another Amhara woman:

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/56/a2/c1/56a2c1f40257d766ecd1c9f99b1a1007.jpg

    Oromo people are a bit more "African" but one would not confuse them for a Nigerian.

    Why are Nigerians taken as the gold standard of “African-ness”? It’s sufficient to say that East Africans and West Africans have distinct genes and phenotypes. Some of that is due to admixture with surrounding populations, but some of it presumably due to native selective pressures. The ectomorphic body type you see in East Africans distinguishes them from both Middle Easterners and Bantus.

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  • @Greasy William

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved
     
    Do I really need to list the GDP per capita of Taiwan, SK and Japan in comparison to China?

    Had the Nationalist army won the civil war China would be the world's most powerful country today and the US wouldn't even be a close second.

    The financial crisis that China is going to hit in the next 10 years will be entirely the result of the utter ineptitude for the Communist Party*.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool.
     
    SK wants to reunite with the North even though it will mean importing massive poverty. West Germany wanted to reunite with with East Germany even though they knew it would cause tons of problems. HK wants to remain part of China instead of being independent. There are no cases in history of people who regard themselves as the same nation wanting to be in separate states.

    The Taiwanese see themselves as a separate nation just like today's Austrians see themselves as a separate nation from Germany even though everybody knows that they really aren't.

    *InB4 "the Chinese economy is doing awesome and will continue to grow at a billion percent a year forever". China has a private sector debt of over 200% GDP. Japan's number was 180% before hit hit it's Lost (3) Decade(s). Even worse, China's private debt is growing at an insane 30% per year. You can blame these horrific numbers on the incompetent retards who are currently running China. When China has real leadership it will be the strongest country on earth and when that happens, maybe Taiwan voluntarily comes back. If Taiwan doesn't do so, it won't matter as China will then be strong enough to force Taiwan back in the fold. But the "China Strong!" propaganda that is being spewed on this thread simply has no relation to the reality of 2017.

    Confederate States of America and United States of America?

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  • @yeah
    Ethiopia and Ethiopians are amazing in many respects. I speak from personal observation. To begin with, Ethiopians value culture, education, spirituality, politeness, and good manners above all. Talk to almost any thirty-something urban Ethiopian and you will find an earnest student pursuing his second Masters degree while working and raising a family. A nation of perpetual students must sooner or later produce a nation of engineers, scientists, and innovators. And they have their priorities right. The article mentions, "I mean, really: the government has a cap of about 15% on how much social science (that includes law) degrees the universities can grant". Now that is evidence of a really, really intelligent government and shows that the educated Ethiopians have not fallen prey to the intellectual decline that accompanies an educational focus on fluff, irrelevance, and political correctness. I wish these people good luck.

    Ethiopia has won zero Nobel Prizes, Britain has won a hundred and twenty

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  • Ethiopia was subjected to an IQ shredder of sorts during the Italian occupation.

    Later, they got a Communist revolution and lost and order of magnitude more people than what was alledgedly done by the Fascist Italians:
    Ethiopian Red Terror
    Mengistu Haile Mariam

    Yekatit 12
    … Ethiopian sources … estimated … 30,000 …, while Italian sources claimed only a few hundred

    Who to believe…

    Italy and the Addis Ababa massacre
    … ghoulish massacre … crushed babies … disembowelled pregnant women

    *yawn* Been there, done that.

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  • Japan is a democracy with no signs of being cucked. Turkey same thing. Argentina same thing. Mexico same thing. And say what you want about Hitler, but he was definitely no cuck and it was Democracy that brought him to power.

    There is no relation between Democracy and cuckedness.

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  • Orbán never had a job outside politics. His reputation was originally based on his speech at the 1989 funeral of Imre Nagy, the communist prime minister turned revolutionary, who was executed in 1958 for his role in the 1956 anti-communist revolution. Despite a previous agreement between the organizers and the communist party leaders according to which no political topics were to be touched in the speeches (a pretty absurd requirement for such a political funeral of someone hanged for political reasons), Orbán demanded multi-party elections and the immediate withdrawal of Soviet troops from the country. He took some risks: at the time nobody knew if the Soviets would crush democratic aspirations once more, as they had done in 1956. Had that happened, Orbán might have been hanged or at least sentenced to prison, too.

    I don’t think any Western politician ever took that kind of risks. Granted, Orbán was in his twenties, but he’s still a risk-taker, much more so than any other politician in Hungary or in Europe or the Western world elsewhere.

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  • @Jaakko Raipala
    My theory is that democracy can work great for a while in a state inherited as a homogeneous, educated and stable entity from some authoritarian state but it decays over time into systems of professional politicians and parties that rig the system to their own advantage. That's why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe - the system has had less time to corrupt itself.

    When we moved from a quasi-feudal system of estates to full democracy a hundred years ago, the first elected parliaments did not of course have career politicians nor were there lock-ins like state financing of the establishment parties that we have now. Instead people ran on reputations that they had gained elsewhere so landowners picked one of theirs that they trusted the most and campaigned for him, the workers picked the union guy among them who had been good at negotiating with the bosses and so on.

    This is totally different now when a lot of the people in parliament have no experience of career outside of politics at all. Every party offers drones who've been training to be professional politicians since they were teenagers. They have image consulting companies tell them which clothes to wear and which buzzwords to repeat on TV and then they have the party machine tell them which button to press in the parliamentary votes. We didn't have those party machines back in the day - most political parties were originally just somewhat vetted lists of people with a common interest.

    There is no mechanism whatsoever to enforce a connection between the pre-election promises and actual parliamentary votes of politicians but the party machines ruthlessly enforce most voting choices on their politicians. The evolution of our so called democracy over the century has been one big story of moving power away from the directly elected representatives to the party organizations who are only influenced by donors and people who have made professional careers in the party organization.

    That’s why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe – the system has had less time to corrupt itself.

    In Hungary it’s extremely corrupt, though. The only way I can see it being better is that the top leaders grew up without efficient brainwashing (communist brainwashing was never too effective in Hungary), so people like Orbán have more based views. It will change after a few generations.

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  • @Daniel Chieh

    Finally, in regards to your claim about Taiwan having a brain drain, Taiwan’s PISA results suggest that this claim is doubtful, at the very least.

     

    To minimize this topic from whizzing away any further, the brain drain effected would not reasonably affect PISA scores. PISA is a measure of kids, and depending on your beliefs, the health of the schooling system and/or the IQ of the students.

    China instead targets and hires away all successful professionals, more or less effectively torpedoing local industries(especially technology); such industries already have weaker economies of scale and connection, and the combination of being less profitable, and constantly bleeding talent is harsh on the local economy.

    This probably won't affect PISA, at least not right away, but it its part of the effective soft attack that gradually destroys the targeted country's economy.

    At any rate, the failures of democracy go well beyond self-destructive multiculturalism. Some of it is far more fundamental, like the tendency toward short-term planning in order to be reelected. At any rate, Mongolia, Turkey, etc, are not exactly thrilling examples of success. As our kind and brilliant host Mr. Karlin might say, democracy can become the trappings of a cargo cult, but cargo cultism is ultimately pretty useless in terms of efficacy.

    My theory is that democracy can work great for a while in a state inherited as a homogeneous, educated and stable entity from some authoritarian state but it decays over time into systems of professional politicians and parties that rig the system to their own advantage. That’s why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe – the system has had less time to corrupt itself.

    When we moved from a quasi-feudal system of estates to full democracy a hundred years ago, the first elected parliaments did not of course have career politicians nor were there lock-ins like state financing of the establishment parties that we have now. Instead people ran on reputations that they had gained elsewhere so landowners picked one of theirs that they trusted the most and campaigned for him, the workers picked the union guy among them who had been good at negotiating with the bosses and so on.

    This is totally different now when a lot of the people in parliament have no experience of career outside of politics at all. Every party offers drones who’ve been training to be professional politicians since they were teenagers. They have image consulting companies tell them which clothes to wear and which buzzwords to repeat on TV and then they have the party machine tell them which button to press in the parliamentary votes. We didn’t have those party machines back in the day – most political parties were originally just somewhat vetted lists of people with a common interest.

    There is no mechanism whatsoever to enforce a connection between the pre-election promises and actual parliamentary votes of politicians but the party machines ruthlessly enforce most voting choices on their politicians. The evolution of our so called democracy over the century has been one big story of moving power away from the directly elected representatives to the party organizations who are only influenced by donors and people who have made professional careers in the party organization.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    That’s why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe – the system has had less time to corrupt itself.
     
    In Hungary it's extremely corrupt, though. The only way I can see it being better is that the top leaders grew up without efficient brainwashing (communist brainwashing was never too effective in Hungary), so people like Orbán have more based views. It will change after a few generations.
    , @heh
    Sweden was a one-party state and only a democracy on paper from the 1930s to mid-70s. It did just fine in that period. Japan was the same for much of the postwar period and they are doing fine. I've been reading about their imminent collapse - any day now! - for 20 years. It isn't happening. Their per capita GDP is highest ever once you adjust for currency/inflation(or deflation in their case). Meanwhile 'positive demographics' France is struggling.

    Point is, I think it's puerile to blame a system for a cultural failure. Same reason why I chuckle when I see Indians blaming democracy(then explain America) or large population(explain China) for their country's woes.

    Your comment smells the same. We're dealing with a deeper cultural rot here. It isn't so simple to blame it on democracy. Cuba imported lots of Africans because Che wanted a less white country. It was done under a de facto dictatorship.

    Point is, democracy or not is really a red herring and a total diversion. You can have a nationalist culture and you'll be fine with or without democracy. If you don't, you'll be fucked eventually with whichever system you choose. Western countries don't want to face the fact that their culture may have gotten them where they are, but it's total shit at keeping them there. I'm not even talking about always dominating the world. Just basic survival instinct. That's what is at play here, not democracy or autocracy or any other political system. It's the cultural rot.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Bliss

    The Kabah had always been the house built by Abraham
     
    Nonsense.

    1. The book (Torah) which introduces Abraham to the world tells us all about his travels and Mecca, far to the south across arid desert, was not in his iternerary. A shepherd stays away from the desert. He could not have built the Kaaba if he never went to Mecca. Capische?

    2. If their father Abraham had built a temple don’t you think the Jews would consider it their holiest site?

    The Kaaba is an ancient pagan Arab temple, and Mecca was a pagan holy city, and Allah Taala was the primary pagan Arab god.

    Hey Bliss,

    Thanks, but the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn’t a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we’re concerned. If you believe in its inerrancy, most welcome – but we’ll pass. You don’t have to believe our version of events but let’s not kid ourselves as if either one of us has some kind of solid empirical evidence for our claims.

    As far as #2, of course not – they have always only been concerned with the line of Isaac (pbuh). As far as they’re concerned, Ishmael (pbuh) has as much significance as Esau – a supporting cast member, nothing more.

    The rest is conjecture that is refuted by the narrative that the former pagans themselves brought out of the sands of Arabia. Who do you think the first Muslims were?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss

    the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn’t a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we’re concerned
     
    What an ass-backwards, illogical point. Could only be made by a brainwashed fool. You really think the imitation should be considered the “starting point” instead of the original?

    Show us where the story of Abraham originates if not in the Torah. Nowhere in the Torah/Old Testament will you find that Abraham built a temple. Or that he ventured anywhere near the vicinity of Mecca.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Talha
    Hey Bliss,

    Though there certainly are contradicting/qualifying verses in the Quran, this was not one of them. The Abyssinian king had sworn to destroy the Kabah and had no cause to do so other than some random Arab defiling a church he had recently built in Yemen. The Kabah had always been the house built by Abraham (pbuh) and his son Ishmael (pbuh), thus even though it was defiled with idols, it had its original sanctity and would be important in serving the upcoming monotheistic revival.

    The other thing that the event solidified in the minds of the entire Arab peninsula was:
    1) Makkah was a seriously important city
    2) The Quraysh had a special rank among the Arabs
    3) That year was remembered as a blessed year (The Year of the Elephant) and any events that were associated with it (like the birth of the Prophet [pbuh] in the same year)

    All of this was indispensable to its rapid success once the Quraysh accepted Islam and its ability to unite the tribes across the peninsula.

    Peace.

    The Kabah had always been the house built by Abraham

    Nonsense.

    1. The book (Torah) which introduces Abraham to the world tells us all about his travels and Mecca, far to the south across arid desert, was not in his iternerary. A shepherd stays away from the desert. He could not have built the Kaaba if he never went to Mecca. Capische?

    2. If their father Abraham had built a temple don’t you think the Jews would consider it their holiest site?

    The Kaaba is an ancient pagan Arab temple, and Mecca was a pagan holy city, and Allah Taala was the primary pagan Arab god.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Bliss,

    Thanks, but the Torah (an oral then written tradition centuries after the events) isn't a good starting point for a discussion on the matter as far as we're concerned. If you believe in its inerrancy, most welcome - but we'll pass. You don't have to believe our version of events but let's not kid ourselves as if either one of us has some kind of solid empirical evidence for our claims.

    As far as #2, of course not - they have always only been concerned with the line of Isaac (pbuh). As far as they're concerned, Ishmael (pbuh) has as much significance as Esau - a supporting cast member, nothing more.

    The rest is conjecture that is refuted by the narrative that the former pagans themselves brought out of the sands of Arabia. Who do you think the first Muslims were?

    Peace.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Z1 says:

    Taiwan is done. finito.

    TAIPEI (THE CHINA POST/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) – Taiwan’s economy is doomed for a slow death unless the government pushes through with reform, a scholar has warned.

    “The economy is facing a major crisis… it’s on the brink of death… and while the economy is growing – slowly – workers’ pay is still as stagnant as ever,” said University of Chicago economist Hsieh Chang-tai.

    “In Hong Kong and Singapore, even when growth slowed, average wages didn’t fall. In Taiwan, wages have remained stagnant since 1995.”

    http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-sluggish-economy-on-the-brink-of-death-says-economist

    https://international.thenewslens.com/article/39713

    This just happened a couple days ago.
    Taiwan’s parliament resumes brawl – BBC News

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. XYZ
    @Daniel Chieh: You could be surprised at how easily separate cultures could be built, though. For instance, the Austrians built a culture out of a myth that they were Nazism' first victims. Likewise, I don't know what exactly, say, Moldovan or Macedonian or Laotian culture is based on.

    As for your point about the Mandate of Heaven, perhaps you are correct in regards to this. Indeed, establishing a reputation as the re-gatherer of the Chinese nation could certainly appeal to a Chinese leader.

    Also, out of curiosity--do you eventually expect China to make a grab for Mongolia and/or Kokang (in Burma)? Or would that be out of the question?

    In addition to this, I don't see why exactly China can't eventually become a democracy. After all, Mongolia managed to do it in spite of the fact that it had a common history with China for centuries and in spite of the fact that it was never under U.S. influence (unlike, say, South Korea or Taiwan or Japan). Now, I'm not saying that this will necessarily happen within the next several decades; however, I do expect China to eventually become a democracy--whether it takes several decades or several centuries. Indeed, had the KMT won the Chinese Civil War, I suspect that China would already be a democracy right now. (Also, in regards to democracy, while you could point to Western Europe as alleged "failures" of democracy, you could also look at Poland and Hungary for countries which are democratic and yet are hostile to multiculturalism).

    Finally, in regards to your claim about Taiwan having a brain drain, Taiwan's PISA results suggest that this claim is doubtful, at the very least.

    Finally, in regards to your claim about Taiwan having a brain drain, Taiwan’s PISA results suggest that this claim is doubtful, at the very least.

    To minimize this topic from whizzing away any further, the brain drain effected would not reasonably affect PISA scores. PISA is a measure of kids, and depending on your beliefs, the health of the schooling system and/or the IQ of the students.

    China instead targets and hires away all successful professionals, more or less effectively torpedoing local industries(especially technology); such industries already have weaker economies of scale and connection, and the combination of being less profitable, and constantly bleeding talent is harsh on the local economy.

    This probably won’t affect PISA, at least not right away, but it its part of the effective soft attack that gradually destroys the targeted country’s economy.

    At any rate, the failures of democracy go well beyond self-destructive multiculturalism. Some of it is far more fundamental, like the tendency toward short-term planning in order to be reelected. At any rate, Mongolia, Turkey, etc, are not exactly thrilling examples of success. As our kind and brilliant host Mr. Karlin might say, democracy can become the trappings of a cargo cult, but cargo cultism is ultimately pretty useless in terms of efficacy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
    My theory is that democracy can work great for a while in a state inherited as a homogeneous, educated and stable entity from some authoritarian state but it decays over time into systems of professional politicians and parties that rig the system to their own advantage. That's why it sort of works in much of Eastern Europe but no longer works at all in Western Europe - the system has had less time to corrupt itself.

    When we moved from a quasi-feudal system of estates to full democracy a hundred years ago, the first elected parliaments did not of course have career politicians nor were there lock-ins like state financing of the establishment parties that we have now. Instead people ran on reputations that they had gained elsewhere so landowners picked one of theirs that they trusted the most and campaigned for him, the workers picked the union guy among them who had been good at negotiating with the bosses and so on.

    This is totally different now when a lot of the people in parliament have no experience of career outside of politics at all. Every party offers drones who've been training to be professional politicians since they were teenagers. They have image consulting companies tell them which clothes to wear and which buzzwords to repeat on TV and then they have the party machine tell them which button to press in the parliamentary votes. We didn't have those party machines back in the day - most political parties were originally just somewhat vetted lists of people with a common interest.

    There is no mechanism whatsoever to enforce a connection between the pre-election promises and actual parliamentary votes of politicians but the party machines ruthlessly enforce most voting choices on their politicians. The evolution of our so called democracy over the century has been one big story of moving power away from the directly elected representatives to the party organizations who are only influenced by donors and people who have made professional careers in the party organization.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Ethiopia and Ethiopians are amazing in many respects. I speak from personal observation. To begin with, Ethiopians value culture, education, spirituality, politeness, and good manners above all. Talk to almost any thirty-something urban Ethiopian and you will find an earnest student pursuing his second Masters degree while working and raising a family. A nation of perpetual students must sooner or later produce a nation of engineers, scientists, and innovators. And they have their priorities right. The article mentions, “I mean, really: the government has a cap of about 15% on how much social science (that includes law) degrees the universities can grant”. Now that is evidence of a really, really intelligent government and shows that the educated Ethiopians have not fallen prey to the intellectual decline that accompanies an educational focus on fluff, irrelevance, and political correctness. I wish these people good luck.

    Read More
    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @jim jones
    Ethiopia has won zero Nobel Prizes, Britain has won a hundred and twenty
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @The Big Red Scary
    "zero attraction to black girls"

    Not even to Himba women?

    NSFW:

    https://www.google.ru/search?q=himba+women&newwindow=1&safe=off&rlz=1C9BKJA_enRU723RU723&hl=en-GB&prmd=ivsn&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved

    Ew, no.

    Was that a joke?

    PS. I apologize to any Himba reading this…

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • : Democracy doesn’t necessarily equal multiculturalism. Heck, just look at Poland and Hungary!

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • : You could be surprised at how easily separate cultures could be built, though. For instance, the Austrians built a culture out of a myth that they were Nazism’ first victims. Likewise, I don’t know what exactly, say, Moldovan or Macedonian or Laotian culture is based on.

    As for your point about the Mandate of Heaven, perhaps you are correct in regards to this. Indeed, establishing a reputation as the re-gatherer of the Chinese nation could certainly appeal to a Chinese leader.

    Also, out of curiosity–do you eventually expect China to make a grab for Mongolia and/or Kokang (in Burma)? Or would that be out of the question?

    In addition to this, I don’t see why exactly China can’t eventually become a democracy. After all, Mongolia managed to do it in spite of the fact that it had a common history with China for centuries and in spite of the fact that it was never under U.S. influence (unlike, say, South Korea or Taiwan or Japan). Now, I’m not saying that this will necessarily happen within the next several decades; however, I do expect China to eventually become a democracy–whether it takes several decades or several centuries. Indeed, had the KMT won the Chinese Civil War, I suspect that China would already be a democracy right now. (Also, in regards to democracy, while you could point to Western Europe as alleged “failures” of democracy, you could also look at Poland and Hungary for countries which are democratic and yet are hostile to multiculturalism).

    Finally, in regards to your claim about Taiwan having a brain drain, Taiwan’s PISA results suggest that this claim is doubtful, at the very least.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Finally, in regards to your claim about Taiwan having a brain drain, Taiwan’s PISA results suggest that this claim is doubtful, at the very least.

     

    To minimize this topic from whizzing away any further, the brain drain effected would not reasonably affect PISA scores. PISA is a measure of kids, and depending on your beliefs, the health of the schooling system and/or the IQ of the students.

    China instead targets and hires away all successful professionals, more or less effectively torpedoing local industries(especially technology); such industries already have weaker economies of scale and connection, and the combination of being less profitable, and constantly bleeding talent is harsh on the local economy.

    This probably won't affect PISA, at least not right away, but it its part of the effective soft attack that gradually destroys the targeted country's economy.

    At any rate, the failures of democracy go well beyond self-destructive multiculturalism. Some of it is far more fundamental, like the tendency toward short-term planning in order to be reelected. At any rate, Mongolia, Turkey, etc, are not exactly thrilling examples of success. As our kind and brilliant host Mr. Karlin might say, democracy can become the trappings of a cargo cult, but cargo cultism is ultimately pretty useless in terms of efficacy.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Greasy William

    But there’s zero evidence it’ll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that.
     
    What does this mean, liberal democracy? Is Tunisia a liberal democracy? Is Pakistan? Is Turkey?

    Yes China will eventually become at least as democratic as those states. For it to not do so is to say that Greasy's Law of Capitalist Nations does not apply to China but does to literally every other country in the world.

    I do not see China becoming a cucked out open air prison camp for it's core population the way that the Western countries have, but that has nothing to do with democracy. Democracy is not a value, it is just a way to run things.

    @ Chieh

    “this is what happens when you let idiots vote. You get France/Sweden/Germany.”

    Yeah – every time I hear nonsense about how the Muslim world doesn’t have democracy, I’m asking myself; yeah, so?

    Democracy is kind of cool and kind of nuts too.

    @Greasy

    Democracy is not a value, it is just a way to run things.

    This is the way I see it – democracy doesn’t have to be a value system like liberalism or post-modernism or multi-culturalism. It can simply be an organizational paradigm. As such, there is a lot of flexibility in it. For instance, I would argue that Iran is democratic in that it observes the forms and fairly well, but it does have gate keepers that ensure the preservation of a certain value system.

    Peace.

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Daniel Chieh
    All are the results of US pressure, and all became less economically competitive after they became more "democratic", and even then, for a given value of democracy. Japan, for example, remains heavily controlled by its unelected governances(one could argue the US Deep State is similar).

    At any rate, the notion of a "democratization trend" in China is misinformed and the Party is pervasive in ways that is unimaginable, and indeed, is pretty unique in the world. It is simultaneously cancerous in its feelers are in every single company but also allows an surprising degree of resilience and responsiveness from governance. It is, for all practical purposes, irreplaceable unless the Chinese want to embrace the Warring States. They do not.

    China nowadays is certainly not Mao's China. But there's zero evidence it'll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that. Its basically a mandarin bureaucracy in how it skims off gaokao students into the government, which China was historically, and it seems set to endure.

    Lately, the West has managed to embarrass itself enough that China literally points at the West as an example of "this is what happens when you let idiots vote. You get France/Sweden/Germany."

    But there’s zero evidence it’ll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that.

    What does this mean, liberal democracy? Is Tunisia a liberal democracy? Is Pakistan? Is Turkey?

    Yes China will eventually become at least as democratic as those states. For it to not do so is to say that Greasy’s Law of Capitalist Nations does not apply to China but does to literally every other country in the world.

    I do not see China becoming a cucked out open air prison camp for it’s core population the way that the Western countries have, but that has nothing to do with democracy. Democracy is not a value, it is just a way to run things.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    @ Chieh

    “this is what happens when you let idiots vote. You get France/Sweden/Germany.”
     
    Yeah - every time I hear nonsense about how the Muslim world doesn't have democracy, I'm asking myself; yeah, so?

    Democracy is kind of cool and kind of nuts too.

    @Greasy

    Democracy is not a value, it is just a way to run things.
     
    This is the way I see it - democracy doesn't have to be a value system like liberalism or post-modernism or multi-culturalism. It can simply be an organizational paradigm. As such, there is a lot of flexibility in it. For instance, I would argue that Iran is democratic in that it observes the forms and fairly well, but it does have gate keepers that ensure the preservation of a certain value system.

    Peace.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. XYZ
    @Anatoly Karlin: I have little doubt that China would *eventually* be able to conquer Taiwan if it so desired (even if the U.S. militarily intervenes but no nukes are used).

    However, does China genuinely want to reacquire Taiwan or is it all empty talk? The reason that I am asking is because, in addition to the Chinese lives which will be lost in an invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan might very well be to China what the Baltic states were to the Soviet Union--in other words, a pain in the ass!

    Indeed, does China genuinely want that?

    Its not empty talk.

    The locals are divided and ultimately don’t have any cultural resistance, unlike Eastern Europe, which could cohesively argue for their own culture. You can’t build a culture out of celebration of human degeneracy, really, no matter how much they try to do so.

    I’m sure to a lot of Chinese, the leader who successfully does so gains the Mandate of Heaven. This is highly motivating.

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Greasy William
    I'm ready to let this subject drop cause I don't care about China/Taiwan or any countries in the region. I don't care if China conquers all of Asia and I don't care if China becomes a modern version of the Warring States period, but I do think I should at least explain myself.

    History shows us that economic liberalization leads to democracy. The reason that countries like North Korea are so economically oppressive is because economic development weakens the hold autocratic regimes have on power.

    Chile, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea are all states that started out as dictatorships but became democracies as the result of economic liberalization. Economic liberalization led to dramatically more democratic governments in 19th and 20th century Europe, even the Russian Tsar was forced to make concessions to democratic rule in the early 20th century.

    China began it's own economic liberalization program nearly 30 years ago and, lo and behold, the country has become much more democratic than it was in Mao's time. This is set to continue.

    To say that China is not going to become a democracy is to say that China is going to buck the trend that every other autocracy that pursued capitalism did. It is also saying that the democratization trend that has been ongoing in China itself for the last 30 years will not continue.

    All are the results of US pressure, and all became less economically competitive after they became more “democratic”, and even then, for a given value of democracy. Japan, for example, remains heavily controlled by its unelected governances(one could argue the US Deep State is similar).

    At any rate, the notion of a “democratization trend” in China is misinformed and the Party is pervasive in ways that is unimaginable, and indeed, is pretty unique in the world. It is simultaneously cancerous in its feelers are in every single company but also allows an surprising degree of resilience and responsiveness from governance. It is, for all practical purposes, irreplaceable unless the Chinese want to embrace the Warring States. They do not.

    China nowadays is certainly not Mao’s China. But there’s zero evidence it’ll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that. Its basically a mandarin bureaucracy in how it skims off gaokao students into the government, which China was historically, and it seems set to endure.

    Lately, the West has managed to embarrass itself enough that China literally points at the West as an example of “this is what happens when you let idiots vote. You get France/Sweden/Germany.”

    Read More
    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Greasy William

    But there’s zero evidence it’ll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that.
     
    What does this mean, liberal democracy? Is Tunisia a liberal democracy? Is Pakistan? Is Turkey?

    Yes China will eventually become at least as democratic as those states. For it to not do so is to say that Greasy's Law of Capitalist Nations does not apply to China but does to literally every other country in the world.

    I do not see China becoming a cucked out open air prison camp for it's core population the way that the Western countries have, but that has nothing to do with democracy. Democracy is not a value, it is just a way to run things.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • : I have little doubt that China would *eventually* be able to conquer Taiwan if it so desired (even if the U.S. militarily intervenes but no nukes are used).

    However, does China genuinely want to reacquire Taiwan or is it all empty talk? The reason that I am asking is because, in addition to the Chinese lives which will be lost in an invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan might very well be to China what the Baltic states were to the Soviet Union–in other words, a pain in the ass!

    Indeed, does China genuinely want that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Its not empty talk.

    The locals are divided and ultimately don't have any cultural resistance, unlike Eastern Europe, which could cohesively argue for their own culture. You can't build a culture out of celebration of human degeneracy, really, no matter how much they try to do so.

    I'm sure to a lot of Chinese, the leader who successfully does so gains the Mandate of Heaven. This is highly motivating.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Greasy William
    I'm ready to let this subject drop cause I don't care about China/Taiwan or any countries in the region. I don't care if China conquers all of Asia and I don't care if China becomes a modern version of the Warring States period, but I do think I should at least explain myself.

    History shows us that economic liberalization leads to democracy. The reason that countries like North Korea are so economically oppressive is because economic development weakens the hold autocratic regimes have on power.

    Chile, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea are all states that started out as dictatorships but became democracies as the result of economic liberalization. Economic liberalization led to dramatically more democratic governments in 19th and 20th century Europe, even the Russian Tsar was forced to make concessions to democratic rule in the early 20th century.

    China began it's own economic liberalization program nearly 30 years ago and, lo and behold, the country has become much more democratic than it was in Mao's time. This is set to continue.

    To say that China is not going to become a democracy is to say that China is going to buck the trend that every other autocracy that pursued capitalism did. It is also saying that the democratization trend that has been ongoing in China itself for the last 30 years will not continue.

    Is Singapore democratic, though? Much of what looks like internal pressure to democratization was in reality actually just US pressure and in general American influence (cultural or political) and we all know how “democratic” and “free” the West has become.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • I’m ready to let this subject drop cause I don’t care about China/Taiwan or any countries in the region. I don’t care if China conquers all of Asia and I don’t care if China becomes a modern version of the Warring States period, but I do think I should at least explain myself.

    History shows us that economic liberalization leads to democracy. The reason that countries like North Korea are so economically oppressive is because economic development weakens the hold autocratic regimes have on power.

    Chile, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea are all states that started out as dictatorships but became democracies as the result of economic liberalization. Economic liberalization led to dramatically more democratic governments in 19th and 20th century Europe, even the Russian Tsar was forced to make concessions to democratic rule in the early 20th century.

    China began it’s own economic liberalization program nearly 30 years ago and, lo and behold, the country has become much more democratic than it was in Mao’s time. This is set to continue.

    To say that China is not going to become a democracy is to say that China is going to buck the trend that every other autocracy that pursued capitalism did. It is also saying that the democratization trend that has been ongoing in China itself for the last 30 years will not continue.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Is Singapore democratic, though? Much of what looks like internal pressure to democratization was in reality actually just US pressure and in general American influence (cultural or political) and we all know how "democratic" and "free" the West has become.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    All are the results of US pressure, and all became less economically competitive after they became more "democratic", and even then, for a given value of democracy. Japan, for example, remains heavily controlled by its unelected governances(one could argue the US Deep State is similar).

    At any rate, the notion of a "democratization trend" in China is misinformed and the Party is pervasive in ways that is unimaginable, and indeed, is pretty unique in the world. It is simultaneously cancerous in its feelers are in every single company but also allows an surprising degree of resilience and responsiveness from governance. It is, for all practical purposes, irreplaceable unless the Chinese want to embrace the Warring States. They do not.

    China nowadays is certainly not Mao's China. But there's zero evidence it'll ever turn into a liberal democracy, or that there is even much interest in that. Its basically a mandarin bureaucracy in how it skims off gaokao students into the government, which China was historically, and it seems set to endure.

    Lately, the West has managed to embarrass itself enough that China literally points at the West as an example of "this is what happens when you let idiots vote. You get France/Sweden/Germany."
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @5371
    Kosovo's dependence on a whole coalition of the US and its vassals confuses the issue in both respects, but its international recognition will never be general.

    It doesn’t look like an independent country, more like a protectorate, and it seems likely that it will never change. Should a great turmoil come, it could only make things worse for them.

    And yes, recognition is not forthcoming from China or Russia. Not from countries hostile to the US, nor from countries with separatist provinces, unless US or EU bribes can make them recognize it.

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.

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    • Replies: @silviosilver

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.
     
    It won't happen any time soon. The electoral prospects of the ruling party at the time Kosovo declared independence immediately disintegrated, even though they opposed independence.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Greasy William
    China will be a democracy in the next 20 years at most

    You should bet money on this!

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @reiner Tor

    Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state’s troops
     
    Then how did Kosovo join your list? Would it be able to withstand the Serbs?

    Though it now enjoys widespread international recognition, most rich countries recognized it.

    Kosovo’s dependence on a whole coalition of the US and its vassals confuses the issue in both respects, but its international recognition will never be general.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    It doesn't look like an independent country, more like a protectorate, and it seems likely that it will never change. Should a great turmoil come, it could only make things worse for them.

    And yes, recognition is not forthcoming from China or Russia. Not from countries hostile to the US, nor from countries with separatist provinces, unless US or EU bribes can make them recognize it.

    Unless Serbia itself recognizes it. Which is not an impossibility.

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  • @5371
    The other de facto states are Kosovo, Somaliland and (a small part of the territory claimed by) Western Sahara. (Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state's troops). So not illustrious company.

    There is little doubt that Taiwan is qualitatively different from the others and had a very real chance of independence before 1990s or so; the opportunity was squandered and its doomed nowadays. Perhaps hilariously, part of the reason the opportunity was skipped was because the KMT government at the time believed that the mainland government would collapse and then beg before leadership from the ROC.

    That hasn’t panned out, though Gordan Chang is still making money.

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  • @5371
    The other de facto states are Kosovo, Somaliland and (a small part of the territory claimed by) Western Sahara. (Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state's troops). So not illustrious company.

    Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state’s troops

    Then how did Kosovo join your list? Would it be able to withstand the Serbs?

    Though it now enjoys widespread international recognition, most rich countries recognized it.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Kosovo's dependence on a whole coalition of the US and its vassals confuses the issue in both respects, but its international recognition will never be general.
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  • @Greasy William
    China will be a democracy in the next 20 years at most

    Apart from possessing an ill-stocked and underpowered brain, you are a clown, and I regret relapsing into interaction with you.

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  • @Al
    Good to see that long rambling comment of mine has set off some debate. Thanks for highlighting it, Anatoly.

    Now, into the discussion.

    On Mussolini

    While it pains me to say so, and despite the utter lack of justification for the 1936 invasion and the Yekatit and other massacres, it cannot be said that the brief Italian occupation of 1936-1941 left no positive legacy. The Fascists built unprecedented infrastructure in Ethiopia, particularly in the capital (the names of most neighborhoods of Addis Ababa are Italian, now Amharicized) and highways in the interior. The short-lived colonial administration was the first modern one to exist in the country. And slavery was effectively abolished only then.

    Of course, this required enormous resources which had to come from Europe. The occupation was always a money-losing enterprise. And many of the improvements the Italians made were possible precisely because they ruled by force and could disregard existing traditions. Ethiopia was a feudal monarchy, so of course it did not have, and could not have, a modern administration, and a weak government could not, e.g., enforce its theoretical ban on slavery. The restored Haile Selassie must have been mightily pleased that the Italians had inadvertently
    removed most of the traditional restraints on the Imperial power.

    A different question is, why did Ethiopia not modernize in the 19th century? It needed a Meiji Emperor, but only one country got it in time; Tewodros II was half-baked, and he failed; Lij Iyasu might have been the real deal, but he was too late and too weak for the role. And this question leads us to the real problem: why did Ethiopia, which possessed an urban civilization, plough agriculture and writing since the late first millenium BC, fail to progress and expand? It is here that the HBD perspective might be helpful. The rise of Islam and nearly complete isolation for a thousand years sure didn't help, though.

    The long-term impact of the Italian massacres is debatable. I do think they're somewhat comparable to Katyn in purpose and scope, but not so sure on effects. Small numbers of Ethiopians had been studying abroad for some time, and what happened from the 1920s onwards is that they returned as Marxists. This same policy was resumed from the 1950s, and
    it led to the downfall of the empire in 1974 and the rise of a genocidal Communist regime. So it can be argued that, in the long run, the existence of a Western-educated segment of the elite was a disaster. Again, the moment to do that was the 19th century, and we can only speculate what an Ethiopian Iwakura mission might have done.

    Italian Somaliland - modern Eritrea
    Minor nit to pick, but Italian Somaliland is not modern Eritrea, it was joined to British Somaliland to create Somalia in the 1960s.

    But we’re talking of Arabs + Nilotics
    The core historic Ethiopian ethnicities (Tigrayans and Amharas) are very ancient, stable compounds of Semites and Africans. But they are around 30% of today's total population. Even if we were to exclude them, which I wouldn't, the majority of today's Ethiopian population is "African" by any reasonable standard.

    Kenya is one of the most successfully resource-less African countries, is considerably richer than Ethiopia.

    Not that much:

    http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Ethiopia-to-overtake-Kenya-as-Eastern-Africas-top-economy/996-3408274-x8dsv4z/index.html

    Of course, the Kenyans are ahead in per capita terms. They are also growing relatively fast despite much more political instability than Ethiopia in the last decade. Not having had a genocidal Communist government in the near past helps too.

    Ethiopia is under a particularly brutal matial law/state of emergency

    The "particularly brutal" bit doesn't fit with my impression, but the Oromo demonstrations really were quashed before they could develop into a political threat. But since the demonstrations also targeted some foreign-owned factories in the interior, this can also be read as a positive: unlike many countries, particularly in Africa, the Ethiopians are willing to protect the investments they receive, they don't want to kill the golden goose. (Compare with the current South African debate about whether white-owned property is to be expropriated with or without reimbursement, it being taken for granted that expropriation is a perfectly reasonable political decision). Also, the governments of Lee Kuan Yew, Park Chung Hee, Chiang Kai Shek, etc. were hardly models of democracy and human rights...

    Ethiopia is begging for a billion dollars in emergency food aid, again. Some $40-50 billion in mainly western aid and investment is the only thing keeping the extremely unpopular regime afloat

    This is quite misleading. Ethiopia has asked for aid to fight the drought, but received little of it, IIRC less than USD 500 million all told, and as a result is paying most of the bill with its own resources. The drought has caused no famine, which in itself is notable. "Some $40-50 billion in mainly Western aid and investment" muddles the fundamental distinction between aid and investment... I'd be surprised is total foreign aid to Ethiopia should rise to as much as USD 2 billion/year. Neither is the total investment that high: USD 50 billion is almost China-level.

    Their per capita GDP (in 2010 constant nominal dollars) is around where India was in 1990. They basically need 30 years more growth to catch-up to where India is today, and that’s no small task since India has done very well.

    This can be read as a compliment, you know. No country chooses from where it's starting from, only what it can do with what history has provided. If Ethiopia should reach "2017 India" levels by 2045, that would be quite an achievement.

    So it can be argued that, in the long run, the existence of a Western-educated segment of the elite was a disaster.

    On bad days I feel the same way about the US.

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  • @Daniel Chieh
    Oh, its definitely a de facto state, I would say. Chinese ultranationalists might call it a "rogue state" or an "outlaw state" but it is still a state. The day, as you say, when China refuses to acknowledge Taiwanese stamps in passports, then we know that something is up.

    The other de facto states are Kosovo, Somaliland and (a small part of the territory claimed by) Western Sahara. (Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state’s troops). So not illustrious company.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state’s troops
     
    Then how did Kosovo join your list? Would it be able to withstand the Serbs?

    Though it now enjoys widespread international recognition, most rich countries recognized it.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    There is little doubt that Taiwan is qualitatively different from the others and had a very real chance of independence before 1990s or so; the opportunity was squandered and its doomed nowadays. Perhaps hilariously, part of the reason the opportunity was skipped was because the KMT government at the time believed that the mainland government would collapse and then beg before leadership from the ROC.

    That hasn't panned out, though Gordan Chang is still making money.
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  • @5371
    China is never going to be a democracy, and the RoC hasn't been capable of defending against an invasion for many years.

    China will be a democracy in the next 20 years at most

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    • LOL: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @5371
    Apart from possessing an ill-stocked and underpowered brain, you are a clown, and I regret relapsing into interaction with you.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    You should bet money on this!
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  • @Daniel Chieh
    My grandfather was a Taiwanese air force general.

    You are overestimating the ability of planes to operate in impunity when their airfields are destroyed by IRBMs. The ability of planes to operate in impunity when in an AA bubble. And the ability of modern PLA air force. Even the Cold War sorties incurred serious losses among the ROC fighters, and in the long run, China can replace losses. Taiwan can't. It was obvious even then, its far more obvious now.

    The Taiwanese know they're outgunned. The Chinese S-400 AA system bought from Russians means that their planes can't even take off without being shot down, all from the mainland. Say what you will about the Russians, they know what they're doing with anti-aircraft systems.

    This is part of the entire parcel of constant demoralization that Beijing has effectively inflicted upon the island as I described above.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool. You seem to believe that there's actually democracy anywhere. Entertaining fantasy, yes.

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved. The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved

    Do I really need to list the GDP per capita of Taiwan, SK and Japan in comparison to China?

    Had the Nationalist army won the civil war China would be the world’s most powerful country today and the US wouldn’t even be a close second.

    The financial crisis that China is going to hit in the next 10 years will be entirely the result of the utter ineptitude for the Communist Party*.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool.

    SK wants to reunite with the North even though it will mean importing massive poverty. West Germany wanted to reunite with with East Germany even though they knew it would cause tons of problems. HK wants to remain part of China instead of being independent. There are no cases in history of people who regard themselves as the same nation wanting to be in separate states.

    The Taiwanese see themselves as a separate nation just like today’s Austrians see themselves as a separate nation from Germany even though everybody knows that they really aren’t.

    *InB4 “the Chinese economy is doing awesome and will continue to grow at a billion percent a year forever”. China has a private sector debt of over 200% GDP. Japan’s number was 180% before hit hit it’s Lost (3) Decade(s). Even worse, China’s private debt is growing at an insane 30% per year. You can blame these horrific numbers on the incompetent retards who are currently running China. When China has real leadership it will be the strongest country on earth and when that happens, maybe Taiwan voluntarily comes back. If Taiwan doesn’t do so, it won’t matter as China will then be strong enough to force Taiwan back in the fold. But the “China Strong!” propaganda that is being spewed on this thread simply has no relation to the reality of 2017.

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    • Replies: @Vendetta
    Confederate States of America and United States of America?
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  • @Greasy William
    Also the Chinese army is a total joke. They wouldn't even be able to make it to the beaches because the Taiwanese air force would sink them all on the way over. The Chinese gov is not planning on an invasion anytime in the next 20 years or so or else they would be building up their army to do just that. An opposed crossing of a major body of water was beyond even the WWII Germans and the Western allies needed absolute air supremacy, 2 other major fronts and an overwhelming material advantage to pull it off in 44.

    The real question is when China becomes a democracy, will the Taiwanese still want independence? Of course people are going to want to be independent of a backwards totalitarian state, but when China is a free country they might no longer feel the same way.

    China is never going to be a democracy, and the RoC hasn’t been capable of defending against an invasion for many years.

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    • Replies: @Greasy William
    China will be a democracy in the next 20 years at most
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  • @Daniel Chieh
    My grandfather was a Taiwanese air force general.

    You are overestimating the ability of planes to operate in impunity when their airfields are destroyed by IRBMs. The ability of planes to operate in impunity when in an AA bubble. And the ability of modern PLA air force. Even the Cold War sorties incurred serious losses among the ROC fighters, and in the long run, China can replace losses. Taiwan can't. It was obvious even then, its far more obvious now.

    The Taiwanese know they're outgunned. The Chinese S-400 AA system bought from Russians means that their planes can't even take off without being shot down, all from the mainland. Say what you will about the Russians, they know what they're doing with anti-aircraft systems.

    This is part of the entire parcel of constant demoralization that Beijing has effectively inflicted upon the island as I described above.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool. You seem to believe that there's actually democracy anywhere. Entertaining fantasy, yes.

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved. The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.

    The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.

    Dang – Taiwan gets serious signalling points for that! Eat that Scandinavia!

    Peace.

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  • @reiner Tor
    Yeah, that much is true. The question is, can we still regard Taiwan as a state, while it still possesses all attributes of statehood bar international recognition.

    Oh, its definitely a de facto state, I would say. Chinese ultranationalists might call it a “rogue state” or an “outlaw state” but it is still a state. The day, as you say, when China refuses to acknowledge Taiwanese stamps in passports, then we know that something is up.

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    • Replies: @5371
    The other de facto states are Kosovo, Somaliland and (a small part of the territory claimed by) Western Sahara. (Not counting those that are de facto dependent on the presence of another state's troops). So not illustrious company.
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  • @Greasy William

    What an entertaining fantasy world you reside in. If China seriously wanted to take Taiwan missing all other political concerns and with the absence of the Americans, it would probably manage in less than two weeks.
     
    With what, skeleton power?

    Taiwan has one of the best air forces in the world, China's air force is for show and a playground for sons of the Chinese elite. You cannot get the troops to Taiwan without air cover. It is just an impossibility.

    The issues are more political than military, though you wouldn’t know given your fascination with assuming that China is a “backward totalitarian state.”
     
    1. If China isn't a backwards totalitarian state, and Taiwanese are really just Chinese, then why don't the Taiwanese want they want to be reunited with the mainland?

    2. If you are a real Chinese nationalist, then you should be angry at the idiots who are currently running China. If China had the leadership of Japan, South Korea or even Taiwan, China would be the world's most powerful country right now. When China gets real leadership, look out. But for today, it is nothing special.

    My grandfather was a Taiwanese air force general.

    You are overestimating the ability of planes to operate in impunity when their airfields are destroyed by IRBMs. The ability of planes to operate in impunity when in an AA bubble. And the ability of modern PLA air force. Even the Cold War sorties incurred serious losses among the ROC fighters, and in the long run, China can replace losses. Taiwan can’t. It was obvious even then, its far more obvious now.

    The Taiwanese know they’re outgunned. The Chinese S-400 AA system bought from Russians means that their planes can’t even take off without being shot down, all from the mainland. Say what you will about the Russians, they know what they’re doing with anti-aircraft systems.

    This is part of the entire parcel of constant demoralization that Beijing has effectively inflicted upon the island as I described above.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool. You seem to believe that there’s actually democracy anywhere. Entertaining fantasy, yes.

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved. The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.

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    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Talha

    The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.
     
    Dang - Taiwan gets serious signalling points for that! Eat that Scandinavia!

    Peace.
    , @Greasy William

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved
     
    Do I really need to list the GDP per capita of Taiwan, SK and Japan in comparison to China?

    Had the Nationalist army won the civil war China would be the world's most powerful country today and the US wouldn't even be a close second.

    The financial crisis that China is going to hit in the next 10 years will be entirely the result of the utter ineptitude for the Communist Party*.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool.
     
    SK wants to reunite with the North even though it will mean importing massive poverty. West Germany wanted to reunite with with East Germany even though they knew it would cause tons of problems. HK wants to remain part of China instead of being independent. There are no cases in history of people who regard themselves as the same nation wanting to be in separate states.

    The Taiwanese see themselves as a separate nation just like today's Austrians see themselves as a separate nation from Germany even though everybody knows that they really aren't.

    *InB4 "the Chinese economy is doing awesome and will continue to grow at a billion percent a year forever". China has a private sector debt of over 200% GDP. Japan's number was 180% before hit hit it's Lost (3) Decade(s). Even worse, China's private debt is growing at an insane 30% per year. You can blame these horrific numbers on the incompetent retards who are currently running China. When China has real leadership it will be the strongest country on earth and when that happens, maybe Taiwan voluntarily comes back. If Taiwan doesn't do so, it won't matter as China will then be strong enough to force Taiwan back in the fold. But the "China Strong!" propaganda that is being spewed on this thread simply has no relation to the reality of 2017.
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  • you’re obviously correct to a point – people generalize the worst bits of Africa – but unless the bad bits of Africa are fixed or fenced off the good bits of Africa will be swamped by people from the bad bits the same as the West is being

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  • @Anon

    Why don’t you use a handle?
     
    Used to have one. Then it got banned.

    After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help).
     
    The Americans and their navy was the main reason why the PLA did not liberate Taiwan decades ago.

    Used to have one. Then it got banned.

    Dang – was it like “Kill Ron Unz” or something? Thugg lyfe!

    Peace.

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  • @Daniel Chieh
    You seem to have some familiarity with the situation. Then you would know that Taiwan is gradually being economically and politically isolated, to the point of suffering declining infrastructure and a near total brain drain. The residents know exactly why this is happening, being targeted by China, but are incapable of stopping it. In not so many words, China has made it clear that they are screwing the island and there's nothing the island can do about it.

    Much of the weird obsession over liberal cultural points such as same-sex marriage, seem to be, an effort to feel like their opinion still matters somehow in a world where they are being actively marginalized. The sense of hopelessness is pervasive.

    They can't win. Its just a question of how many years they can hold out. A decade? Two? Three?

    Yeah, that much is true. The question is, can we still regard Taiwan as a state, while it still possesses all attributes of statehood bar international recognition.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Oh, its definitely a de facto state, I would say. Chinese ultranationalists might call it a "rogue state" or an "outlaw state" but it is still a state. The day, as you say, when China refuses to acknowledge Taiwanese stamps in passports, then we know that something is up.
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  • @Daniel Chieh
    What an entertaining fantasy world you reside in. If China seriously wanted to take Taiwan missing all other political concerns and with the absence of the Americans, it would probably manage in less than two weeks. This is the assessment, incidentally, of the R.O.C military in the 2000s.

    These days, probably even less time. The issues are more political than military, though you wouldn't know given your fascination with assuming that China is a "backward totalitarian state." If you were actually familiar with the area, then you would know that China has effectively executed most of her plans for Taiwan already in the usual less than overt, but steady grinding down method.

    Most of the residents feel like dead men walking. Its one of the reasons why their TFR is abysmal.

    What an entertaining fantasy world you reside in. If China seriously wanted to take Taiwan missing all other political concerns and with the absence of the Americans, it would probably manage in less than two weeks.

    With what, skeleton power?

    Taiwan has one of the best air forces in the world, China’s air force is for show and a playground for sons of the Chinese elite. You cannot get the troops to Taiwan without air cover. It is just an impossibility.

    The issues are more political than military, though you wouldn’t know given your fascination with assuming that China is a “backward totalitarian state.”

    1. If China isn’t a backwards totalitarian state, and Taiwanese are really just Chinese, then why don’t the Taiwanese want they want to be reunited with the mainland?

    2. If you are a real Chinese nationalist, then you should be angry at the idiots who are currently running China. If China had the leadership of Japan, South Korea or even Taiwan, China would be the world’s most powerful country right now. When China gets real leadership, look out. But for today, it is nothing special.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    My grandfather was a Taiwanese air force general.

    You are overestimating the ability of planes to operate in impunity when their airfields are destroyed by IRBMs. The ability of planes to operate in impunity when in an AA bubble. And the ability of modern PLA air force. Even the Cold War sorties incurred serious losses among the ROC fighters, and in the long run, China can replace losses. Taiwan can't. It was obvious even then, its far more obvious now.

    The Taiwanese know they're outgunned. The Chinese S-400 AA system bought from Russians means that their planes can't even take off without being shot down, all from the mainland. Say what you will about the Russians, they know what they're doing with anti-aircraft systems.

    This is part of the entire parcel of constant demoralization that Beijing has effectively inflicted upon the island as I described above.

    And no cluster of special interests wants to be submerged into a larger pool. You seem to believe that there's actually democracy anywhere. Entertaining fantasy, yes.

    As far as Chinese leadership goes, its pretty competent given the difficulties involved. The idea that China would be better off being led by a gay-loving, sterile woman from Taiwan is pretty funny, but no. Just no.
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  • @Al
    Good to see that long rambling comment of mine has set off some debate. Thanks for highlighting it, Anatoly.

    Now, into the discussion.

    On Mussolini

    While it pains me to say so, and despite the utter lack of justification for the 1936 invasion and the Yekatit and other massacres, it cannot be said that the brief Italian occupation of 1936-1941 left no positive legacy. The Fascists built unprecedented infrastructure in Ethiopia, particularly in the capital (the names of most neighborhoods of Addis Ababa are Italian, now Amharicized) and highways in the interior. The short-lived colonial administration was the first modern one to exist in the country. And slavery was effectively abolished only then.

    Of course, this required enormous resources which had to come from Europe. The occupation was always a money-losing enterprise. And many of the improvements the Italians made were possible precisely because they ruled by force and could disregard existing traditions. Ethiopia was a feudal monarchy, so of course it did not have, and could not have, a modern administration, and a weak government could not, e.g., enforce its theoretical ban on slavery. The restored Haile Selassie must have been mightily pleased that the Italians had inadvertently
    removed most of the traditional restraints on the Imperial power.

    A different question is, why did Ethiopia not modernize in the 19th century? It needed a Meiji Emperor, but only one country got it in time; Tewodros II was half-baked, and he failed; Lij Iyasu might have been the real deal, but he was too late and too weak for the role. And this question leads us to the real problem: why did Ethiopia, which possessed an urban civilization, plough agriculture and writing since the late first millenium BC, fail to progress and expand? It is here that the HBD perspective might be helpful. The rise of Islam and nearly complete isolation for a thousand years sure didn't help, though.

    The long-term impact of the Italian massacres is debatable. I do think they're somewhat comparable to Katyn in purpose and scope, but not so sure on effects. Small numbers of Ethiopians had been studying abroad for some time, and what happened from the 1920s onwards is that they returned as Marxists. This same policy was resumed from the 1950s, and
    it led to the downfall of the empire in 1974 and the rise of a genocidal Communist regime. So it can be argued that, in the long run, the existence of a Western-educated segment of the elite was a disaster. Again, the moment to do that was the 19th century, and we can only speculate what an Ethiopian Iwakura mission might have done.

    Italian Somaliland - modern Eritrea
    Minor nit to pick, but Italian Somaliland is not modern Eritrea, it was joined to British Somaliland to create Somalia in the 1960s.

    But we’re talking of Arabs + Nilotics
    The core historic Ethiopian ethnicities (Tigrayans and Amharas) are very ancient, stable compounds of Semites and Africans. But they are around 30% of today's total population. Even if we were to exclude them, which I wouldn't, the majority of today's Ethiopian population is "African" by any reasonable standard.

    Kenya is one of the most successfully resource-less African countries, is considerably richer than Ethiopia.

    Not that much:

    http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Ethiopia-to-overtake-Kenya-as-Eastern-Africas-top-economy/996-3408274-x8dsv4z/index.html

    Of course, the Kenyans are ahead in per capita terms. They are also growing relatively fast despite much more political instability than Ethiopia in the last decade. Not having had a genocidal Communist government in the near past helps too.

    Ethiopia is under a particularly brutal matial law/state of emergency

    The "particularly brutal" bit doesn't fit with my impression, but the Oromo demonstrations really were quashed before they could develop into a political threat. But since the demonstrations also targeted some foreign-owned factories in the interior, this can also be read as a positive: unlike many countries, particularly in Africa, the Ethiopians are willing to protect the investments they receive, they don't want to kill the golden goose. (Compare with the current South African debate about whether white-owned property is to be expropriated with or without reimbursement, it being taken for granted that expropriation is a perfectly reasonable political decision). Also, the governments of Lee Kuan Yew, Park Chung Hee, Chiang Kai Shek, etc. were hardly models of democracy and human rights...

    Ethiopia is begging for a billion dollars in emergency food aid, again. Some $40-50 billion in mainly western aid and investment is the only thing keeping the extremely unpopular regime afloat

    This is quite misleading. Ethiopia has asked for aid to fight the drought, but received little of it, IIRC less than USD 500 million all told, and as a result is paying most of the bill with its own resources. The drought has caused no famine, which in itself is notable. "Some $40-50 billion in mainly Western aid and investment" muddles the fundamental distinction between aid and investment... I'd be surprised is total foreign aid to Ethiopia should rise to as much as USD 2 billion/year. Neither is the total investment that high: USD 50 billion is almost China-level.

    Their per capita GDP (in 2010 constant nominal dollars) is around where India was in 1990. They basically need 30 years more growth to catch-up to where India is today, and that’s no small task since India has done very well.

    This can be read as a compliment, you know. No country chooses from where it's starting from, only what it can do with what history has provided. If Ethiopia should reach "2017 India" levels by 2045, that would be quite an achievement.

    That was exactly what I was thinking of: people getting educated in Europe without an obvious trade. Arguably learning nothing useful, but returning home with out-sized political ambition. Ho Chi Minh, Pol Pot and many others.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Greasy William

    Did you miss the naval buildup of the PLA?
     
    Did you miss the 20+ years of neglect of the air force that the Chinese government has carried out?

    You can't conquer Taiwan without air supremacy. You can't gain air supremacy over one of the best air forces on earth without putting at least some effort into building up your own air force.

    My guess is that you are some kind of Chinese nationalist, and I'm not saying that you can't have Taiwan back. I don't care about the issue one way or the other. I'm just pointing out that the people of Taiwan don't want it and China is in no position to use force to gain Taiwan back at this time.

    Maybe when China becomes a free country Taiwan will want to re-unite. If they don't want to re-unite, perhaps when China has less incompetent leaders they will be able to force Taiwan back in. But those things are way down the road.

    Did you miss the 20+ years of neglect of the air force that the Chinese government has carried out?

    Air forces of India and RoC wish they were as “neglected” as the PLAAF.

    Maybe when China becomes a free country Taiwan will want to re-unite.

    There is still the problem that it would be a demotion of the RoC to a mere province.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @heh

    that had experienced multiple regime changes within a few decades
     
    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that. Switzerland is also landlocked. It's still rich as hell.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.

    I'm making the obvious point that resorting to shitlib arguments ("muh geography") or making continued arguments which all pan out to the notion that bad stuff(like repeated coups) "just happens", it apparently falls out of the sky, is a typical retort to those who don't want to assign blame where it belongs. It's the old question: why is the dominican republic so much richer than Haiti? Both have very similar geography. One of them has worse demographics.

    Ethiopia may do better than Eritrea or Somalia, but that isn't saying much. If they end up where India is today 20-30 years from now, it'll be a different story.

    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that.

    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.

    Switzerland is also landlocked. It’s still rich as hell.

    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.

    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.

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    • Replies: @heh

    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.
     
    Weak countries get dominated by stronger countries, but who is weak or strong is is not set in stone. But given Ethiopia's massive demographic advantage over its much smaller neighbours it had literally no excuse.

    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.
     
    Precisely. And that wasn't inevitable either. As I already told you: you're treating historic events as if they are falling from the sky rather than as a result of guile and skill of their political leaders, which must come from the national culture.

    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.
     
    It would provide political stability. Ethiopia wouldn't have made it to Taiwanese levels but surely to where India is today, but they failed to dominate much smaller states. It's actually incredible how incompetent that turned out to be.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    Ethiopia’s neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland’s.

     

    LOL. Black countries are poor because they are surrounded by other poor black countries. And those other countries are poor because they are next to Ethiopia, which is a poor black country.
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  • @reiner Tor
    The Taiwanese soldiers are conscripts, who on average must have lower motivation than the professionals in the (however corrupt) PLA. The ratio of forces will be overwhelmingly stacked against them. Taiwan also has a lower birthrate than China, which could easily depress willingness to sacrifice one's life in battle.

    So it's likely that Taiwan's forces won't resist much. But anything can happen, and Chinese military planners will need to plan for the worst case scenario (for them), which is a strong Taiwanese resistance.

    You seem to have some familiarity with the situation. Then you would know that Taiwan is gradually being economically and politically isolated, to the point of suffering declining infrastructure and a near total brain drain. The residents know exactly why this is happening, being targeted by China, but are incapable of stopping it. In not so many words, China has made it clear that they are screwing the island and there’s nothing the island can do about it.

    Much of the weird obsession over liberal cultural points such as same-sex marriage, seem to be, an effort to feel like their opinion still matters somehow in a world where they are being actively marginalized. The sense of hopelessness is pervasive.

    They can’t win. Its just a question of how many years they can hold out. A decade? Two? Three?

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Yeah, that much is true. The question is, can we still regard Taiwan as a state, while it still possesses all attributes of statehood bar international recognition.
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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @reiner Tor
    Why don't you use a handle?

    Hainan was captured (I wouldn't call it "liberated") because at the time the nationalist army was disorganized and in a state of flight. They could've captured Taiwan as well, but instead sent the army gathered for the task to Korea. After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help). Since then, China didn't have the ability to invade until relatively recently, and maybe it still doesn't have it.

    Why don’t you use a handle?

    Used to have one. Then it got banned.

    After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help).

    The Americans and their navy was the main reason why the PLA did not liberate Taiwan decades ago.

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    • Replies: @Talha

    Used to have one. Then it got banned.
     
    Dang - was it like "Kill Ron Unz" or something? Thugg lyfe!

    Peace.
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  • @Greasy William
    Also the Chinese army is a total joke. They wouldn't even be able to make it to the beaches because the Taiwanese air force would sink them all on the way over. The Chinese gov is not planning on an invasion anytime in the next 20 years or so or else they would be building up their army to do just that. An opposed crossing of a major body of water was beyond even the WWII Germans and the Western allies needed absolute air supremacy, 2 other major fronts and an overwhelming material advantage to pull it off in 44.

    The real question is when China becomes a democracy, will the Taiwanese still want independence? Of course people are going to want to be independent of a backwards totalitarian state, but when China is a free country they might no longer feel the same way.

    What an entertaining fantasy world you reside in. If China seriously wanted to take Taiwan missing all other political concerns and with the absence of the Americans, it would probably manage in less than two weeks. This is the assessment, incidentally, of the R.O.C military in the 2000s.

    These days, probably even less time. The issues are more political than military, though you wouldn’t know given your fascination with assuming that China is a “backward totalitarian state.” If you were actually familiar with the area, then you would know that China has effectively executed most of her plans for Taiwan already in the usual less than overt, but steady grinding down method.

    Most of the residents feel like dead men walking. Its one of the reasons why their TFR is abysmal.

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    • Replies: @Greasy William

    What an entertaining fantasy world you reside in. If China seriously wanted to take Taiwan missing all other political concerns and with the absence of the Americans, it would probably manage in less than two weeks.
     
    With what, skeleton power?

    Taiwan has one of the best air forces in the world, China's air force is for show and a playground for sons of the Chinese elite. You cannot get the troops to Taiwan without air cover. It is just an impossibility.

    The issues are more political than military, though you wouldn’t know given your fascination with assuming that China is a “backward totalitarian state.”
     
    1. If China isn't a backwards totalitarian state, and Taiwanese are really just Chinese, then why don't the Taiwanese want they want to be reunited with the mainland?

    2. If you are a real Chinese nationalist, then you should be angry at the idiots who are currently running China. If China had the leadership of Japan, South Korea or even Taiwan, China would be the world's most powerful country right now. When China gets real leadership, look out. But for today, it is nothing special.
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  • heh says:
    @Anon

    Their per capita GDP (in 2010 constant nominal dollars) is around where India was in 1990.
     
    India in 1990 was not a landlocked country that had experienced multiple regime changes within a few decades. They are performing better than India in 1990.

    that had experienced multiple regime changes within a few decades

    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that. Switzerland is also landlocked. It’s still rich as hell.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.

    I’m making the obvious point that resorting to shitlib arguments (“muh geography”) or making continued arguments which all pan out to the notion that bad stuff(like repeated coups) “just happens”, it apparently falls out of the sky, is a typical retort to those who don’t want to assign blame where it belongs. It’s the old question: why is the dominican republic so much richer than Haiti? Both have very similar geography. One of them has worse demographics.

    Ethiopia may do better than Eritrea or Somalia, but that isn’t saying much. If they end up where India is today 20-30 years from now, it’ll be a different story.

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    • Replies: @Anon

    None of that was inevitable, it was their own political system which created that.
     
    Which was needlessly destabilized by others.

    Switzerland is also landlocked. It’s still rich as hell.
     
    Last time Switzerland was invaded and occupied by another county was centuries ago.

    Yes, the neighbourhood matters in the case of Switzerland, but Ethiopia is also a hell of a lot bigger than either Somalia or Eritrea, as should be able to dominate the area.
     
    Ethiopia's neighborhood is also much poorer than Switzerland's.
    Dominating the area would not make more developed by default.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Greasy William
    How many Taiwanese do you know? There is a real Taiwanese identity now just like there is a real Austrian identity, a real Kuwaiti identity and a real Pakistani identity.

    But yeah, once you crack the secret of time travel you should have no problem reuniting the renegade province of Taiwan with the Motherland.

    p.s.: I don't give a shit about this topic at all. China can have all of Asia for all I care, but my righteous nature will not allow me to let you continue to live in ignorance.

    Taiwanese identity is a challenge of how to cuck either to homomania West or halcyon fantasies of Japan.

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  • @Anon

    The Chinese gov is not planning on an invasion anytime in the next 20 years or so or else they would be building up their army to do just that.
     
    Did you miss the naval buildup of the PLA?

    An opposed crossing of a major body of water was beyond even the WWII Germans and the Western allies needed absolute air supremacy, 2 other major fronts and an overwhelming material advantage to pull it off in 44.
     
    Did you miss that the PLA did manage to liberate Hainan?

    Why don’t you use a handle?

    Hainan was captured (I wouldn’t call it “liberated”) because at the time the nationalist army was disorganized and in a state of flight. They could’ve captured Taiwan as well, but instead sent the army gathered for the task to Korea. After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help). Since then, China didn’t have the ability to invade until relatively recently, and maybe it still doesn’t have it.

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    • Replies: @Anon

    Why don’t you use a handle?
     
    Used to have one. Then it got banned.

    After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help).
     
    The Americans and their navy was the main reason why the PLA did not liberate Taiwan decades ago.
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  • Al says:

    Good to see that long rambling comment of mine has set off some debate. Thanks for highlighting it, Anatoly.

    Now, into the discussion.

    On Mussolini

    While it pains me to say so, and despite the utter lack of justification for the 1936 invasion and the Yekatit and other massacres, it cannot be said that the brief Italian occupation of 1936-1941 left no positive legacy. The Fascists built unprecedented infrastructure in Ethiopia, particularly in the capital (the names of most neighborhoods of Addis Ababa are Italian, now Amharicized) and highways in the interior. The short-lived colonial administration was the first modern one to exist in the country. And slavery was effectively abolished only then.

    Of course, this required enormous resources which had to come from Europe. The occupation was always a money-losing enterprise. And many of the improvements the Italians made were possible precisely because they ruled by force and could disregard existing traditions. Ethiopia was a feudal monarchy, so of course it did not have, and could not have, a modern administration, and a weak government could not, e.g., enforce its theoretical ban on slavery. The restored Haile Selassie must have been mightily pleased that the Italians had inadvertently
    removed most of the traditional restraints on the Imperial power.

    A different question is, why did Ethiopia not modernize in the 19th century? It needed a Meiji Emperor, but only one country got it in time; Tewodros II was half-baked, and he failed; Lij Iyasu might have been the real deal, but he was too late and too weak for the role. And this question leads us to the real problem: why did Ethiopia, which possessed an urban civilization, plough agriculture and writing since the late first millenium BC, fail to progress and expand? It is here that the HBD perspective might be helpful. The rise of Islam and nearly complete isolation for a thousand years sure didn’t help, though.

    The long-term impact of the Italian massacres is debatable. I do think they’re somewhat comparable to Katyn in purpose and scope, but not so sure on effects. Small numbers of Ethiopians had been studying abroad for some time, and what happened from the 1920s onwards is that they returned as Marxists. This same policy was resumed from the 1950s, and
    it led to the downfall of the empire in 1974 and the rise of a genocidal Communist regime. So it can be argued that, in the long run, the existence of a Western-educated segment of the elite was a disaster. Again, the moment to do that was the 19th century, and we can only speculate what an Ethiopian Iwakura mission might have done.

    Italian Somaliland – modern Eritrea
    Minor nit to pick, but Italian Somaliland is not modern Eritrea, it was joined to British Somaliland to create Somalia in the 1960s.

    But we’re talking of Arabs + Nilotics
    The core historic Ethiopian ethnicities (Tigrayans and Amharas) are very ancient, stable compounds of Semites and Africans. But they are around 30% of today’s total population. Even if we were to exclude them, which I wouldn’t, the majority of today’s Ethiopian population is “African” by any reasonable standard.

    Kenya is one of the most successfully resource-less African countries, is considerably richer than Ethiopia.

    Not that much:

    http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Ethiopia-to-overtake-Kenya-as-Eastern-Africas-top-economy/996-3408274-x8dsv4z/index.html

    Of course, the Kenyans are ahead in per capita terms. They are also growing relatively fast despite much more political instability than Ethiopia in the last decade. Not having had a genocidal Communist government in the near past helps too.

    Ethiopia is under a particularly brutal matial law/state of emergency

    The “particularly brutal” bit doesn’t fit with my impression, but the Oromo demonstrations really were quashed before they could develop into a political threat. But since the demonstrations also targeted some foreign-owned factories in the interior, this can also be read as a positive: unlike many countries, particularly in Africa, the Ethiopians are willing to protect the investments they receive, they don’t want to kill the golden goose. (Compare with the current South African debate about whether white-owned property is to be expropriated with or without reimbursement, it being taken for granted that expropriation is a perfectly reasonable political decision). Also, the governments of Lee Kuan Yew, Park Chung Hee, Chiang Kai Shek, etc. were hardly models of democracy and human rights…

    Ethiopia is begging for a billion dollars in emergency food aid, again. Some $40-50 billion in mainly western aid and investment is the only thing keeping the extremely unpopular regime afloat

    This is quite misleading. Ethiopia has asked for aid to fight the drought, but received little of it, IIRC less than USD 500 million all told, and as a result is paying most of the bill with its own resources. The drought has caused no famine, which in itself is notable. “Some $40-50 billion in mainly Western aid and investment” muddles the fundamental distinction between aid and investment… I’d be surprised is total foreign aid to Ethiopia should rise to as much as USD 2 billion/year. Neither is the total investment that high: USD 50 billion is almost China-level.

    Their per capita GDP (in 2010 constant nominal dollars) is around where India was in 1990. They basically need 30 years more growth to catch-up to where India is today, and that’s no small task since India has done very well.

    This can be read as a compliment, you know. No country chooses from where it’s starting from, only what it can do with what history has provided. If Ethiopia should reach “2017 India” levels by 2045, that would be quite an achievement.

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    • Replies: @songbird
    That was exactly what I was thinking of: people getting educated in Europe without an obvious trade. Arguably learning nothing useful, but returning home with out-sized political ambition. Ho Chi Minh, Pol Pot and many others.
    , @iffen
    So it can be argued that, in the long run, the existence of a Western-educated segment of the elite was a disaster.

    On bad days I feel the same way about the US.
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  • Did you miss the naval buildup of the PLA?

    Did you miss the 20+ years of neglect of the air force that the Chinese government has carried out?

    You can’t conquer Taiwan without air supremacy. You can’t gain air supremacy over one of the best air forces on earth without putting at least some effort into building up your own air force.

    My guess is that you are some kind of Chinese nationalist, and I’m not saying that you can’t have Taiwan back. I don’t care about the issue one way or the other. I’m just pointing out that the people of Taiwan don’t want it and China is in no position to use force to gain Taiwan back at this time.

    Maybe when China becomes a free country Taiwan will want to re-unite. If they don’t want to re-unite, perhaps when China has less incompetent leaders they will be able to force Taiwan back in. But those things are way down the road.

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    • Replies: @Anon

    Did you miss the 20+ years of neglect of the air force that the Chinese government has carried out?
     
    Air forces of India and RoC wish they were as "neglected" as the PLAAF.

    Maybe when China becomes a free country Taiwan will want to re-unite.
     
    There is still the problem that it would be a demotion of the RoC to a mere province.
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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Greasy William
    Also the Chinese army is a total joke. They wouldn't even be able to make it to the beaches because the Taiwanese air force would sink them all on the way over. The Chinese gov is not planning on an invasion anytime in the next 20 years or so or else they would be building up their army to do just that. An opposed crossing of a major body of water was beyond even the WWII Germans and the Western allies needed absolute air supremacy, 2 other major fronts and an overwhelming material advantage to pull it off in 44.

    The real question is when China becomes a democracy, will the Taiwanese still want independence? Of course people are going to want to be independent of a backwards totalitarian state, but when China is a free country they might no longer feel the same way.

    The Chinese gov is not planning on an invasion anytime in the next 20 years or so or else they would be building up their army to do just that.

    Did you miss the naval buildup of the PLA?

    An opposed crossing of a major body of water was beyond even the WWII Germans and the Western allies needed absolute air supremacy, 2 other major fronts and an overwhelming material advantage to pull it off in 44.

    Did you miss that the PLA did manage to liberate Hainan?

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Why don't you use a handle?

    Hainan was captured (I wouldn't call it "liberated") because at the time the nationalist army was disorganized and in a state of flight. They could've captured Taiwan as well, but instead sent the army gathered for the task to Korea. After the Korean War the PLA was licking its wounds, and the nationalist army got way better prepared (with American help). Since then, China didn't have the ability to invade until relatively recently, and maybe it still doesn't have it.
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  • @reiner Tor
    On the other hand, just a few countries accept Donetsk or Abkhazian passports.

    The DPR is still quite new and Abkhazia can count on Russian support.
    How much can the Taiwanese count on American support?

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Greasy William
    There is a de facto Taiwanese state.

    Why are we even talking about this? Are there a lot of Chinese nationalists amongst Anatoly's fans?

    There is a de facto Taiwanese state.

    Why does the “Taiwanese state” claim the Chinese mainland?
    Or control a part of the Fujian province and maintains Chinese claims on the SCS?
    Until recently, the pro-Taiwanese parties were never able to control executive and legislative at the same time.
    The correct statement is that the RoC is becoming a de facto Taiwanese state.

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  • @Anon

    Because China made it known that it will attack Taiwan with military force should Taiwan declare independence.
     
    Exactly, unlike Georgia or the Ukraine, the PRC can force their "separatists" to maintain an outdated policy which they would want to replace sooner than later.

    On the other hand, just a few countries accept Donetsk or Abkhazian passports.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    The DPR is still quite new and Abkhazia can count on Russian support.
    How much can the Taiwanese count on American support?
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