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    Belated comment on the Kemerovo fire that killed 64 people, including 41 children. 1. Tragedies like this are inevitable and will always happen, the best that could be done is working to minimize and mitigate them (personally I favor legislating exorbitant compensation for victims, since money > ethics so far as almost all businesses are...
  • OK – so your conclusions are based on the assumption that the US completely lied about its side of the story. Which is fine I guess, it’s not like they have high credibility anyway.

    I don’t think you even have to assume the US is lying to reasonably call it murder. According to the reporting by Der Spiegel, the (10-20) Wagner personnel killed were not even part of the group advancing toward the oilfield, but rather were at the SAA base back by the river. I don’t think the US has ever specified that its attack was limited to the advancing forces, and didn’t also target the location they came from.

    In any case, this was not a battle, but a massively one-sided massacre, with no warning shots fired, perpetrated by illegal invaders. Murder seems like a better description than combat.

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  • @Dmitry
    There needs to be a table of fire deaths per capita, or mass fire deaths, relative to in other countries.

    Because (even if they are not so common - like deaths from terrorism, etc) they are preventable/needless deaths, that can be over ten times lower in other countries.

    There does not seem to be a correlation to alcohol consumption.

    All it needs, is to find the countries with the lowest rates, and copying their fire regulations.

    https://i.imgur.com/IEFkUlq.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/GTYVPtg.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/yTb7uaT.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/IHjMt5u.jpg



    ---------


    So Germany has a consistently (multi-year) level below 13 times less fire deaths per capita.

    How difficult would it be just to copy their fire regulations into law?

    Germans use a lot of concrete because of a relative lack of timber.

    Still sort of surprising because of their craziness regarding Christmas trees and Easter fires.

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  • Fire fatalities in buildings with working sprinklers are very rare, save for Twin Towers situations. Sprinklers rarely put out fires, but they suppress them, prevent flashover, give people time to escape, and firemen time to arrive. They’re pretty much mandatory for new commercial construcction in the U.S.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Russia is not at war with the US, it was not a case of friendly fire, Wagner did not attack the US troops [who are in Syria in illegally], they (Wagner) were not even warned they were intruding into (what the US claims as) its sphere of influence in Syria.

    So no, I don't think calling it murder is inappropriate, which has to be avenged (too bad that Putin is too much of a cuck for that).

    OK – so your conclusions are based on the assumption that the US completely lied about its side of the story. Which is fine I guess, it’s not like they have high credibility anyway.

    If Putin avenges it, he’s likely not going to do it without plausible denial or do something like give the Turks more leeway to smash US allied forces on the ground or the sort…

    Peace.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Copying German habits will take much longer.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/936327868832993280

    I don’t blame you for showing these photos, Anatoly. You’re still young and presumably have strong healthy legs. What does one do as he reaches his 50′s, 60′s or beyond? Squatting down low for a couple of minutes during such a delicate operation can be quite trying. You’ll get sick of it all and move back to the states, where you can sit for 15 minutes or longer (if need be) and read a book or contemplate the other amenities of the good life, back ‘home’. :-)

    BTW, why don’t you do a film review of ‘The Death of Stalin’. It’s currently being shown in the US and is getting great reviews. Oh that’s right, Putler, the new party chief, has banned the showing of the film in Russia? Nothing like censorship starting at the top and working its way down. But hey, you’re above average in intelligence and should be able to view a bootlegged version somewhere out there within the internet.

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  • I remember now that one of my mother’s friends (he was a successful journalist), had died in a fire in the 1990s. They said he had fallen asleep with a burning cigarette.

    This is one of the deadly combination – cigarette + drunk + sofa.

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  • @Talha

    with respect to the Wagner mercenaries murdered by the US in Syria
     
    I’m no fan of US policies in Syria, but this is very strange language and lends one losing credibility on the matter.

    In what way can the killings of an armed mercenary unit in active war zone be described as “murder”? Sure, you can describe an action as excessive or underhanded, etc. but this...

    It sounds a lot like the language Israel uses when its soldiers get taken captive in an internationally disputed and occupied territory as “kidnapping”.

    Peace.

    Russia is not at war with the US, it was not a case of friendly fire, Wagner did not attack the US troops [who are in Syria in illegally], they (Wagner) were not even warned they were intruding into (what the US claims as) its sphere of influence in Syria.

    So no, I don’t think calling it murder is inappropriate, which has to be avenged (too bad that Putin is too much of a cuck for that).

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    • Replies: @Talha
    OK - so your conclusions are based on the assumption that the US completely lied about its side of the story. Which is fine I guess, it's not like they have high credibility anyway.

    If Putin avenges it, he's likely not going to do it without plausible denial or do something like give the Turks more leeway to smash US allied forces on the ground or the sort...

    Peace.
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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Copying German habits will take much longer.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/936327868832993280

    Russian fire-detectors:

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  • @Dmitry
    There needs to be a table of fire deaths per capita, or mass fire deaths, relative to in other countries.

    Because (even if they are not so common - like deaths from terrorism, etc) they are preventable/needless deaths, that can be over ten times lower in other countries.

    There does not seem to be a correlation to alcohol consumption.

    All it needs, is to find the countries with the lowest rates, and copying their fire regulations.

    https://i.imgur.com/IEFkUlq.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/GTYVPtg.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/yTb7uaT.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/IHjMt5u.jpg



    ---------


    So Germany has a consistently (multi-year) level below 13 times less fire deaths per capita.

    How difficult would it be just to copy their fire regulations into law?

    Copying German habits will take much longer.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Russian fire-detectors:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xobxg1kN8iQ
    , @Mr. Hack
    I don't blame you for showing these photos, Anatoly. You're still young and presumably have strong healthy legs. What does one do as he reaches his 50's, 60's or beyond? Squatting down low for a couple of minutes during such a delicate operation can be quite trying. You'll get sick of it all and move back to the states, where you can sit for 15 minutes or longer (if need be) and read a book or contemplate the other amenities of the good life, back 'home'. :-)

    BTW, why don't you do a film review of 'The Death of Stalin'. It's currently being shown in the US and is getting great reviews. Oh that's right, Putler, the new party chief, has banned the showing of the film in Russia? Nothing like censorship starting at the top and working its way down. But hey, you're above average in intelligence and should be able to view a bootlegged version somewhere out there within the internet.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • There needs to be a table of fire deaths per capita, or mass fire deaths, relative to in other countries.

    Because (even if they are not so common – like deaths from terrorism, etc) they are preventable/needless deaths, that can be over ten times lower in other countries.

    There does not seem to be a correlation to alcohol consumption.

    All it needs, is to find the countries with the lowest rates, and copying their fire regulations.

    ———

    So Germany has a consistently (multi-year) level below 13 times less fire deaths per capita.

    How difficult would it be just to copy their fire regulations into law?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Copying German habits will take much longer.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/936327868832993280
    , @songbird
    Germans use a lot of concrete because of a relative lack of timber.

    Still sort of surprising because of their craziness regarding Christmas trees and Easter fires.
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  • with respect to the Wagner mercenaries murdered by the US in Syria

    I’m no fan of US policies in Syria, but this is very strange language and lends one losing credibility on the matter.

    In what way can the killings of an armed mercenary unit in active war zone be described as “murder”? Sure, you can describe an action as excessive or underhanded, etc. but this…

    It sounds a lot like the language Israel uses when its soldiers get taken captive in an internationally disputed and occupied territory as “kidnapping”.

    Peace.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Russia is not at war with the US, it was not a case of friendly fire, Wagner did not attack the US troops [who are in Syria in illegally], they (Wagner) were not even warned they were intruding into (what the US claims as) its sphere of influence in Syria.

    So no, I don't think calling it murder is inappropriate, which has to be avenged (too bad that Putin is too much of a cuck for that).
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  • Kind of funny how the negative media attention only comes after you’ve improved upon said problem.

    Ie you’re no longer dysfunctional & have become a real threat to AZ empire

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Dmitry

    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their “national wealth” is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?
     

    It's a product of history. The Soviet Union built lots of small apartments (which were an upgrade on the communal apartments of before the war). So today the majority of the 'housing stock' are apartments and they were constructed in high density, for cities in which most people did not yet have automobiles.

    In addition, I believe there is a cultural element - that people prefer living in apartments (ultimately apartments are cheaper and easier to maintain than houses, and easier if you feel lazy about maintenance issues). So most new construction is also for apartments.

    This also has to do with why Russia is a 'cat loving country', while America is a 'dog loving country'. Cats are more apartment animals, while dogs - it's usually better to have a house.

    I am amazed at the number of Russians who keep large dogs in small apartments. Dachas are part of this equation. A small flat in Frunzenskaya for the winter but a big dacha by the Volga for Summer. It is not so easy to compare Russian housing with the UK or USA.

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Medvedev
    My point was that religious people tend to have more children (whether they are Protestants or Orthodox). Of course, if they are committed. That's why I mentioned 'part of parish' ("приход"), not just some random factory worker who gets drunk in the evening and visits Church once a year on Easter.
    If you look at urban population https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Fertility2010ua.PNG
    there isn't much of a difference between different parts of Ukraine (except for Eastern Ukraine). Kherson, Odessa or Dnepro regions have higher fertility rates then Lvov or Ternopol.
    If rural Ukrainians in the Western Ukraine tend to keep Christian traditions and faith so far - good for them.

    If you look at urban population
    there isn’t much of a difference between different parts of Ukraine (except for Eastern Ukraine). Kherson, Odessa or Dnepro regions have higher fertility rates then Lvov or Ternopol.

    The chart you are referring to:

    This is true of urban Galicia (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, part of Ternopil oblasts), whose urban fertility rate is the same as in the central and southern Ukraine (and higher than eastern Ukraine). But the Orthodox Western regions of Volynia and Zakarpattiya have the highest urban fertility rate also.

    A note: the chart is from 2010 when overall fertility rate was at 1.45; Ukraine’s fertility rate improved to 1.51 by 2013.

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  • @AP

    Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine – normal for those who are part of ‘приход’ to have several kids plus more.
     
    Probably but it seems that those who attend church regularly in MP churches in Ukraine are a very small fraction of MP believers, because the highest fertility rate in Ukraine is in Orthodox areas where the Kiev Patriarchate or the UAOC are strongest, followed by Galicia, and in last place the ones where the Moscow Patriarchate is strongest:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#Total_fertility_rate_by_oblast

    The non-Moscow Orthodox parts of Ukraine have the most parishes per 10,000 people:

    https://i.imgur.com/2CO2QQL.png

    My point was that religious people tend to have more children (whether they are Protestants or Orthodox). Of course, if they are committed. That’s why I mentioned ‘part of parish’ (“приход”), not just some random factory worker who gets drunk in the evening and visits Church once a year on Easter.
    If you look at urban population
    there isn’t much of a difference between different parts of Ukraine (except for Eastern Ukraine). Kherson, Odessa or Dnepro regions have higher fertility rates then Lvov or Ternopol.
    If rural Ukrainians in the Western Ukraine tend to keep Christian traditions and faith so far – good for them.

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    • Replies: @AP

    If you look at urban population
    there isn’t much of a difference between different parts of Ukraine (except for Eastern Ukraine). Kherson, Odessa or Dnepro regions have higher fertility rates then Lvov or Ternopol.
     
    The chart you are referring to:

    https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Fertility2010ua.PNG

    This is true of urban Galicia (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, part of Ternopil oblasts), whose urban fertility rate is the same as in the central and southern Ukraine (and higher than eastern Ukraine). But the Orthodox Western regions of Volynia and Zakarpattiya have the highest urban fertility rate also.

    A note: the chart is from 2010 when overall fertility rate was at 1.45; Ukraine's fertility rate improved to 1.51 by 2013.
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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • In other words Patriarchy is one of the keys of becoming a superpower:

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/20/the-return-of-patriarchy/

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Medvedev
    Thank you for the info. Really strange indeed.
    From my personal anecdotal evidence: my local protestant church, it is normal to marry and have a couple of kids by the age of 30, most have 2-4 kids (discounting recent converts or convicts who turned to faith). Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine - normal for those who are part of 'приход' to have several kids plus more.

    Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine – normal for those who are part of ‘приход’ to have several kids plus more.

    Probably but it seems that those who attend church regularly in MP churches in Ukraine are a very small fraction of MP believers, because the highest fertility rate in Ukraine is in Orthodox areas where the Kiev Patriarchate or the UAOC are strongest, followed by Galicia, and in last place the ones where the Moscow Patriarchate is strongest:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#Total_fertility_rate_by_oblast

    The non-Moscow Orthodox parts of Ukraine have the most parishes per 10,000 people:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Medvedev
    My point was that religious people tend to have more children (whether they are Protestants or Orthodox). Of course, if they are committed. That's why I mentioned 'part of parish' ("приход"), not just some random factory worker who gets drunk in the evening and visits Church once a year on Easter.
    If you look at urban population https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:Fertility2010ua.PNG
    there isn't much of a difference between different parts of Ukraine (except for Eastern Ukraine). Kherson, Odessa or Dnepro regions have higher fertility rates then Lvov or Ternopol.
    If rural Ukrainians in the Western Ukraine tend to keep Christian traditions and faith so far - good for them.
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  • @Medvedev
    It's not all black and white. According to this data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_total_fertility_rate in 2016:
    Novosibirsk region (1.80) or Krasnoyarsk Krai (1.82) had higher TFR than non-Russian Kabardino-Balkaria(1.72) or KCR(1.52).
    The non-Russian regions with high-fertility (DIC, Tuva, Sakha, Altai) represent a small share of Russia population. Excluding them from the statistics wouldn't impact birth rate significantly.

    I’m rooting for Russia, but what I’m hearing is that the ethnic-Russian population is declining in every oblast / region. Anything less than 2.0 TFR, or really 2.1, means the population is dying out.

    Absent real changes, the only question is how fast it will die out and how fast a competing people will assert their political, economic, and cultural clout at the expense of ethnic Russians.

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  • @Dmitry

    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don’t have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland’s population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year — before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.
     

    While I share your point of view about undesirability of the demographics and so on, I highly doubt that a country as successful as Switzerland cannot continue to maintain their quality of life. I highly doubt (short of some radical unforeseen events) it will not still be a great place to live in the 2050s. And direct democracy in Switzerland is also very willing to do moderate, but still somewhat politically incorrect policies when it seems required - see the Muzzin ban.

    Bans on muezzins doing the call to prayer, or restrictions on the construction of mosques or the size of mosques or the height of minarets, are all grossly inadequate measures.

    Until and unless Switzerland stops Muslim immigration and settlement, Muslims will continue to come and will continue to constitute an ever-greater proportion of the population. In time the Muslims will gain the political strength to repeal the measures mentioned above and, to the contrary, start imposing sharia “law.”

    Switzerland being such a successful country does not in any way give us rational cause for optimism under current circumstances. It is a successful country because of its people and its culture, and those will continue to change for the worse unless serious measures are implemented fairly soon.

    Germany will go under first, from the look of it, but our Swiss cousins won’t be all that far behind.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @LatW
    My goal here wasn't to read you dissect Latvia or Ukraine, but to find genuine answers to what "Lisbon to Vladivostok" means in practice. Oh well.

    As to the "war rhetoric" - most of it is coming from the Anglo media. In 2016 it got so bad at one point, that even the former Estonian president had to ask them to calm down. Btw, there was a graph floating around here recently that showed that Sweden is more Russophobic than the Baltic states.


    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?
     
    "Nearly all" is a big exaggeration. Many do, but not all (there are countless jobs where you don't need either Russian or English), and out of those that do, it's not mostly work in Russian (those jobs would technically require Russian as a desired skill but it would be used only occasionally). But, yea, it can be a problem I alluded to above. The people of Russian extraction mostly understand Latvian and they have no problem shopping (they do it every day). The Russians from Moscow that visit for the Orthodox Christmas seem to be doing fine, too. As I already mentioned, in some areas it is useful (certain types of business, communicating with our friends, etc).

    Btw, I know that there are counsellors in Sweden who talk to the new immigrants, I was wondering what language they spoke and if they'd soon have to learn Arabic.

    My goal here wasn’t to read you dissect Latvia or Ukraine, but to find genuine answers to what “Lisbon to Vladivostok” means in practice. Oh well.

    Perhaps I should have made that clearer.

    When companies move into foreign lands, they normally prefer it that their new venture is not too distant from their present infrastructure. It makes life easier for everyone (fewer hours on the road for managers, more options in case of hiccups, etc.). This goes doubly for outsourcing, where companies are sometimes even reluctant to look for options outside their regional borders. Companies also prefer it that the business climate, in the very broad sense, is as similar as possible to what they are used to (as I’m sure your Statoil executive would agree).

    What I mean by Latvia, say, being a bridge to Asia (well, Vladivostok) is that it can serve to lower these two hurdles. By first establishing themselves in Latvia, companies get the twin benefits of geographical proximity to Russia and cultural know-how, both of which smooth the way for possible later ventures into Russia.

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @AP

    In Russia Orthodoxy (namely) has become part of Russian identity, part of being Russian. It is similar in Greece, Armenia, Poland etc
     
    As of 2013 48% of Poles go to church at least once a week, in comparison to 27% of Greeks and 8% of Russians (latter figure actually seems high to me).

    Thank you for the info. Really strange indeed.
    From my personal anecdotal evidence: my local protestant church, it is normal to marry and have a couple of kids by the age of 30, most have 2-4 kids (discounting recent converts or convicts who turned to faith). Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine – normal for those who are part of ‘приход’ to have several kids plus more.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine – normal for those who are part of ‘приход’ to have several kids plus more.
     
    Probably but it seems that those who attend church regularly in MP churches in Ukraine are a very small fraction of MP believers, because the highest fertility rate in Ukraine is in Orthodox areas where the Kiev Patriarchate or the UAOC are strongest, followed by Galicia, and in last place the ones where the Moscow Patriarchate is strongest:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#Total_fertility_rate_by_oblast

    The non-Moscow Orthodox parts of Ukraine have the most parishes per 10,000 people:

    https://i.imgur.com/2CO2QQL.png
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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Daniel Chieh
    I was trying to make a callback to "Some of my best friends are black" but that sentence usually slips into "I've dated black women" and I realized that keeping it straightly verbatim would be...not what I wanted to say. :)

    When I was a boy, the old black & white movies on Saturday afternoons were a real treat. Charlie Chan was one of my favorites. :)

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  • @Swedish Family
    Hello LatW, and thanks for the long reply!

    As to your definition of a “natural trading partner”, yes, Russia definitely is one (lots of potential). But then I’d say, any potential trading partner who wants what you offer is a “natural trading partner”.
     
    Yes, but there is more to it than that. My implicit assumption -- which I didn't spell out, sorry -- was that geographical proximity also leads to cultural know-how and the growth of bilingual speakers, both of which are very important in business dealings. Trade is not only about wants and haves.

    But Russia will do what they want, regardless who you are. I can share a funny story: some time in 2005, around the time when the power consolidation in Russia started taking real shape, I was with a group that had dinner with a Statoil executive in Norway, who was trying to win a bid to drill in the Shtokman field (they were competing with a French company). The guy was wondering who in the industry he should be talking to win the contract. There was a Russian from Latvia in our group who was very straightforward and said “This kind of a thing will be decided only by the Kremlin”. The dude was a bit startled (“You mean I should go straight to Moscow?”). In the end, the Kremlin decided to deny contracts to all of the foreign companies. “Fig im”, as Vladimir Vladimirovich would say, meaning “you won’t be getting anything”
     
    I can believe it. :) But this proves my point above wonderfully.

    I wouldn’t call wanting to not be finlandized hostility. You’re right that there could be an opportunity cost, but there is also a cost for being finlandized. The Russian gas or more access to their market wouldn’t be cheaper for us either way because there would be an added cost of the political demands that we’d have to fulfill – even if there was no Nato, etc – (in the case of my people, unlike in the case of the Finnish people in the 1950s and onwards, that cost could at some point become existential).
     

    You may well be right, although I would argue that you could tone down the war rhetoric a little with no loss to your autonomy.

    Even if we distance ourselves from the ethnic and political, the sheer time and energy it would take to, let’s say, teach every new generation the Russian language – would add to the costs. That means a Latvian parent would have to now teach their kid not only English (because you can’t live without it), but also Russian – a very beautiful, valuable, but tough language. That would take away from learning other important things. You couldn’t make it optional because in a multi-cultural and bilingual society it eventually becomes a necessity (people in the Baltics mostly live together, not separately like the Waloons and Flemmish).
     

    Language questions are delicate and must be resolved by looking at the specific context at hand. Latvia's draconian language and citizenship laws are defensible, I think, on historical and existential grounds. Your language and culture face very real dangers of dying out in a free market exchange, so it makes sense for the state to intervene. More than that, your cultural heritage is fully ethnically Latvian, or something like it, so protecting your language and culture also preserves historical continuity. The situation in Ukraine is not nearly as straightforward, but we can have that discussion some other time.

    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?

    My goal here wasn’t to read you dissect Latvia or Ukraine, but to find genuine answers to what “Lisbon to Vladivostok” means in practice. Oh well.

    As to the “war rhetoric” – most of it is coming from the Anglo media. In 2016 it got so bad at one point, that even the former Estonian president had to ask them to calm down. Btw, there was a graph floating around here recently that showed that Sweden is more Russophobic than the Baltic states.

    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?

    “Nearly all” is a big exaggeration. Many do, but not all (there are countless jobs where you don’t need either Russian or English), and out of those that do, it’s not mostly work in Russian (those jobs would technically require Russian as a desired skill but it would be used only occasionally). But, yea, it can be a problem I alluded to above. The people of Russian extraction mostly understand Latvian and they have no problem shopping (they do it every day). The Russians from Moscow that visit for the Orthodox Christmas seem to be doing fine, too. As I already mentioned, in some areas it is useful (certain types of business, communicating with our friends, etc).

    Btw, I know that there are counsellors in Sweden who talk to the new immigrants, I was wondering what language they spoke and if they’d soon have to learn Arabic.

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    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    My goal here wasn’t to read you dissect Latvia or Ukraine, but to find genuine answers to what “Lisbon to Vladivostok” means in practice. Oh well.
     
    Perhaps I should have made that clearer.

    When companies move into foreign lands, they normally prefer it that their new venture is not too distant from their present infrastructure. It makes life easier for everyone (fewer hours on the road for managers, more options in case of hiccups, etc.). This goes doubly for outsourcing, where companies are sometimes even reluctant to look for options outside their regional borders. Companies also prefer it that the business climate, in the very broad sense, is as similar as possible to what they are used to (as I'm sure your Statoil executive would agree).

    What I mean by Latvia, say, being a bridge to Asia (well, Vladivostok) is that it can serve to lower these two hurdles. By first establishing themselves in Latvia, companies get the twin benefits of geographical proximity to Russia and cultural know-how, both of which smooth the way for possible later ventures into Russia.

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  • @iffen
    It's okay to like whites. :)

    I was trying to make a callback to “Some of my best friends are black” but that sentence usually slips into “I’ve dated black women” and I realized that keeping it straightly verbatim would be…not what I wanted to say. :)

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    • Replies: @iffen
    When I was a boy, the old black & white movies on Saturday afternoons were a real treat. Charlie Chan was one of my favorites. :)
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Medvedev
    I'd same for Russian stating he's Orthodox doesn't imply that he is actually religious. Most people visit church once a year at best to "consecrate bread" on Easter. You can ask:
    - Are you Orthodox
    - Yes
    - Do you believe in Jesus Christ
    - Eh, ... I guess ...
    In Russia Orthodoxy (namely) has become part of Russian identity, part of being Russian. It is similar in Greece, Armenia, Poland etc.

    In Russia Orthodoxy (namely) has become part of Russian identity, part of being Russian. It is similar in Greece, Armenia, Poland etc

    As of 2013 48% of Poles go to church at least once a week, in comparison to 27% of Greeks and 8% of Russians (latter figure actually seems high to me).

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    • Replies: @Medvedev
    Thank you for the info. Really strange indeed.
    From my personal anecdotal evidence: my local protestant church, it is normal to marry and have a couple of kids by the age of 30, most have 2-4 kids (discounting recent converts or convicts who turned to faith). Moscow Patriarchy church in Ukraine - normal for those who are part of 'приход' to have several kids plus more.
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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Daniel Chieh


    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

     

    I don't really have anything against white Christian men. Some of my best friends are white Christian men and I owe my life in many ways to white Christian men. I also like reading works by white Christian men.

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

     

    Remove vindaloo.

    It’s okay to like whites. :)

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I was trying to make a callback to "Some of my best friends are black" but that sentence usually slips into "I've dated black women" and I realized that keeping it straightly verbatim would be...not what I wanted to say. :)
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @reiner Tor
    I think people with Asperger’s are more likely to take a “rational” ideology more seriously (even if, in reality, they do indeed think the opposite), simply because they couldn’t find “rational” counter-arguments. It doesn’t mean that it’s what they really think, but maybe they think it’s a good position to represent publicly as a “rational” position. Normal people don’t feel the need to find rational arguments supporting their gut feelings.

    Normal people don’t feel the need to find rational arguments supporting their gut feelings.

    Well this is a big relief.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Daniel Chieh
    Relevant:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im7Ts17CPjA

    Don’t really expect any better from you।।

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  • @AP
    Mostly agree. But:

    pro-Russian parties would still be electorally non-viable (2010 was the unlikely confluence of a massive economic crisis coupled with the near complete discreditation of the Orange forces).
     
    Non-viable in terms of securing the presidency, yes: the pro-Russian electorate was about 45% of the country (as you correctly note, 2010 was a "perfect storm" for them, a fluke), and losing the demographic struggle to the more-fertile Westerners in Ukraine. But they would have controlled nearly half the parliament which would have slowed down the process of integration with the West.

    Also, NATO would have basically zero chance of passing any referendum.

    So Ukraine would have been linked to the EU, but most likely not a part of NATO, and would have been friendly towards Russia.

    There were big plans for Crimea. I still remember just one day after the regime-replacement, Yats “our men” going to NATO headquarters “to discuss the Crimea issue” (their own words). Anyway, at that time-point, the Russia reconquering operation was going on. Putin should have thought “Since Ukraine is lost forever, let’s take our lands, our people and the Black Sea fleet base back”.

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  • @Singh
    They have 2 paths

    white Christian
    Son of Evropa

    Stand beside Moses who sacrifices the golden calf
    Bow to Mother Evropa who rides the white bull

    With the Aryas whom Prithvi Ma loves & blesses
    Or

    The melechas who are cursed to wander through desert।।

    You can be a BhoomiPutra (son of soil)

    Or

    A bastard।।

    Whether that bastard is born through a Roman soldier or through conversion

    Is irrelevant।।

    Relevant:

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    • Replies: @Singh
    Don't really expect any better from you।।
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @annamaria
    A highly unusual paper on Putin -- actually, a breathtaking report by a witness -- by Sharon Tennison: https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2018/01/28/is-putin-profoundly-corrupt-or-incorruptible/
    Sharon's plea illustrates the degree of unfreedom of the US press:
    "Some of you were around Putin in the earlier years. Please share your opinions, pro and con …. confidentiality will be assured. It’s important to develop a composite picture of this demonized leader and get the record straight. I’m quite sure that 99% of those who excoriate him in mainstream media have had no personal contact with him at all. They write articles on hearsay, rumors and fabrication, or they read scripts others have written on their tele-prompters. This is how our nation gets its “news”, such as it is.
    There is a well known code of ethics among us: Is it the Truth, Is it Fair, Does it build Friendship and Goodwill, and Will it be Beneficial for All Concerned? It seems to me that if our nation’s leaders would commit to using these four principles in international relations, the world would operate in a completely different manner, and human beings across this planet would live in better conditions than they do today."

    That is an excellent article. Thanks for the link.

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  • @iffen
    to see all these videos of American rednecks hunting bears

    Whoa! Whoa! Stop it right here. Hunting is not cruelty to animals.

    Especially if you don’t waste the meat. The guy who taught me archery was one of those tough guys. Killed two black bears over the course of his life (with bow and arrow) and ate them too. Told me it took him months because of how much meat one of those things packs.

    Peace.

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  • @Dmitry

    You are either a psychopath, or have Asperger’s, or maybe both. I’d bet on the Asperger’s without psychopathy.

    It’s a similar question to the one about eating your dog. I read it in one of Pinker’s books, but it’s a commonly used example.

    “Suppose there was a couple who loved their dog very much. They provided great comfort to their dog, cuddled it, always protected it from harm. But one day, the dog was run over by a car. They found its body next to the car. Then suddenly they realized that they had never tasted dog meat before, and that it didn’t matter to their beloved dog anymore anyway. So they cooked the dog. It tasted delicious!”

    Do you find this repulsive? Or do you think there’s nothing wrong with what the couple did to their dog’s body, since it was dead anyway?

    Most normal people get repulsed by it. Evolution makes us feel it repulsive. But, once you stop to think about it, it’s not irrational at all. You can rightly suspect that they couldn’t have loved the dog much, if the very day they lost it they could think of their culinary desire of eating it. It’s repulsive to us because we suspect they didn’t much love their “beloved” dog. We also suspect they don’t love much anything, if what they thought they loved meant so little to them. In other words, we suspect them of psychopathy. And we are right: psychopaths, unlike normal people, don’t see anything wrong with eating the dog.

    By saying you don’t care what happens after your death, you declare you never worry about anyone other than yourself. That’s pretty psychopathic, which makes it quite repulsive.
     

    I am no psychopath, and do not have any Asperger's (rather the opposite) - thank you for your diagnosis attempt though. As for the dog example - I would not eat the dog. And I am no fan of cruelty to animals (to see all these videos of American rednecks hunting bears on YouTube is nothing but repulsive).

    I am simply grown-up enough to write down the facts, without a silly sentimentality.

    The fact that a person should not care what happens after they die, does not mean that they shouldn't care what happens during life or not care about other people while alive. It is just a simple understanding of reality, that what happens after death does not affect the person, in any possible way. Think again of Alexander III - is he affected by what happened to his descendants? The answer is in quite a simple way, no. He lived his life in a fortunate bubble, and that was that (lucky for him he didn't live into old age).

    to see all these videos of American rednecks hunting bears

    Whoa! Whoa! Stop it right here. Hunting is not cruelty to animals.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Especially if you don't waste the meat. The guy who taught me archery was one of those tough guys. Killed two black bears over the course of his life (with bow and arrow) and ate them too. Told me it took him months because of how much meat one of those things packs.

    Peace.
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  • @Dmitry

    I don’t think so, to the extent of our abilities we should try to act against trends that might have disastrous consequences even well after the end of our own lives. Regarding your example (nuclear apocalypse), this might mean working for a lessening of international tensions that make great power wars unlikely, or even working for the abolition of nuclear weapons (though that is probably not possible and might actually have negative consequences of its own if it leads to more conflict). Another obvious example would be climate change and environmental degradation. And if one cares about civilizational and national continuity (and a lot of people reading and commenting here do, even if you think that’s irrational and just futile self-delusion, to escape the depressing reality of our own mortality) and wants to pass something on to later generations, in the hope they’ll make something good of it, that same principle applies imo in matters of demography.
     
    If it makes you feel happier in the present, to think or feel like you can change in a positive way future that you will be non-existent nothingness during - then it is rational, since it is improving your present life for which you are in existence. Likewise, buying a lottery ticket, and dreaming of a fortune that you will never experience, can be rational, if those dreams are enjoyable to you. But if it starts to make you unhappy or has a negative impact on your life, it is irrational. I'm certainly not going to let myself stress about the potential situation in some decade (e.g. 2120s) in which I will be absolute nothingness and dust.

    But if it starts to make you unhappy or has a negative impact on your life, it is irrational.

    Happiness is highly over-rated.

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  • @szopen
    The current government is the first ever Polish government doing anything about this. They introduced 500+ package: if you have second, third, fourth etc child you get 500PLN (for each child).

    Obviously, it's too late. I started to read about demographics some ten years ago or more (not sure about that - I would have to check my notes) and I've read papers by demographers from 20 years ago. They were saying it was absolute last time to do anything in 2000. Right now it's too late for anything and all we can do is brace ourselves for the impact of the incoming demographic catastrophe.

    I'd be more interested in who's having and who's not having children in Poland. If it's leftists not having any children, I'd argue it's a good thing. Unfortunately, I doubt that. I mean, anecdotically, all my rightist friends have 2+ kids, and most of my leftist friends have none or one, but I think it's just a happy coincidence and the pattern does not hold nationally.

    who’s not having children in Poland. If it’s leftists not having any children, I’d argue it’s a good thing.

    I’m not sure this breeds true.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Daniel Chieh


    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

     

    I don't really have anything against white Christian men. Some of my best friends are white Christian men and I owe my life in many ways to white Christian men. I also like reading works by white Christian men.

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

     

    Remove vindaloo.

    They have 2 paths

    white Christian
    Son of Evropa

    Stand beside Moses who sacrifices the golden calf
    Bow to Mother Evropa who rides the white bull

    With the Aryas whom Prithvi Ma loves & blesses
    Or

    The melechas who are cursed to wander through desert।।

    You can be a BhoomiPutra (son of soil)

    Or

    A bastard।।

    Whether that bastard is born through a Roman soldier or through conversion

    Is irrelevant।।

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Relevant:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im7Ts17CPjA
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • themoscowtimes.com/news/putin-offers-86-billion-to-families-as-russia-nears-election-59744

    It’s good that al least state support for demographic recovery will continue even in times of economic difficulties. It’s encouraging.

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  • @Dmitry

    That’s factually incorrect, I’m 33 now, so unless I die prematurely or kill myself, I will in all likelihood get to see the extremely negative consequences of the ongoing mass immigration to my country. It’s not an abstract concern about some distant future no one alive will see, but about developments that will affect my personal life and the lives of many of those commenting here, about trends already clearly visible (and which probably will only get worse), and how things will be in about 2040 or so (which isn’t that distant in time…I remember 1995 well enough).
    But you seem to be arguing from an extreme individualist perspective and on the assumption that nothing in the end really matters. In the long term that’s probably true (eventually humanity will in all likelihood cease to exist, and the sun will go out, and our solar system will become a cold and lifeless place), but I can’t feel much sympathy for such complete indifference and detachment, it strikes me as extreme egoism masquerading as philosophical virtue.
     
    Sure if you live in Germany, policies might one day be suicidal enough that it could lower your standard of living by retirement times - perhaps you could retire in more sane country. But in most countries, life-standards are improving, insofar as will actually effect us - in our life we already have more opportunities and standard of living than our parents (even as things like 'high-culture' or 'national culture' are in decline).

    We are talking about this subject of demographics. From a national perspective, it would be preferable if it would reach replacement rate. But the current situation is not that - and the regions with highest fertility are ones with high rates of non-Russians, mainly Muslim regions. Imagine in 2150 (arbitrary number, I don't know the calculations), it will become a partly Muslim country. It might not be ideal, but this does not effect my life - I see no reason to stress about it. That is a normal reaction, I don't think it is extreme. Interest in 'future of society' hardly needs to extend past retirement age.

    A secondary issue is how much control you have over events. Nobody here has any control over any of these events - not more than a football fan watching on television, has control over his team can win the match. In the case of the football, the emotions are irrational, and likewise for us over things we cannot control. So long as it is still interesting and entertaining, it can be fun to discuss - but again, I'm not going to pull my hair out if I see a negative trend I cannot change (and I guess even Putin cannot change). There are more than enough opportunities for us now, that I find the whining of people in rich, developed countries, some kind of ungrateful tiresome, even when I agree with their overall point of view and support all the same policies they do.

    As for philosophical virtue. This alleged 'egoism' attitude is reflected by many educated people - whether it is Epicurus, Montaigne, or even politically engaged people like Herzen. Herzen writes in his memoirs far more cynical and 'egotistical' things than anything I have said in this thread.

    If I didn’t have relatives in Russia wouldn’t have to worry one bit if 146 million Russians were killed in gas chambers, right? Not a single molecule in my body would change, so why care? It doesn’t affect my life (I live in US) one bit, right?
    Sorry, no need to answer these questions. You’re either troll or, as pointed out, psychopath.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • When the French ambassador was begging in London for Britain to enter the war, he said little or nothing about the phony pretext of Belgian neutrality,

    And the sacred respect in which the British viewed neutrality had been unequivocally demonstrated in the “Battle of Copenhagen” in 1807, when the British navy entered Copenhagen harbor (Denmark being a neutral country), bombarded the city and seized the Danish fleet.

    And, of course, in the Second World War Churchill had no scruples about invading neutral Norway; the German invasion (for which Admiral Raeder was sentenced to life imprisonment at Nuremberg) was undertaken as a preemptive measure.

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    • Agree: dfordoom
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @adreng
    "The difficulty is with an aging population pyramid, is that there will be a greater tax burden on people who are working, as there is a larger dependent population."

    At least, it seams that the time period during which people are healthy has increased (in most countries, life expactancy has risen, while the time during which people are dependent on care at the end of their lives has not increased). There are different opinions as to how life expectancy will further develop, I think it is likely to increase further, and people will be able to work longer - that is not very popular, but it makes sense to increase the age of retirement.

    Furthermore, it depends on the kind of pension system to what degree the demographic changes are a problem. In Poland, they will most likely be a severe problem because pensions are almost exclusively financed with payments by currently working people. In contrast, in Switzerland, only a part of the pensions (the one that makes sure that pensioners have some minimum income) is financed by currently working people, while a large part of the pensions is financed by money that is saved during people's work live, so that the financial problems from an aging population pyramid are much smaller.

    arge part of the pensions is financed by money that is saved during people’s work live

    This is, essentially, the same thing. Even if most people do not realize it. Money or stocks are worthless unless there is a system in place to support its value (work-age population who work and buy goods and services).
    It might work for a small country like Switzerland with investments all over the world. But not for the country the size of USA, Russia or even Canada.

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  • @reiner Tor
    Essentially, a childless person will only be able to enjoy his pension because other people make it possible by raising the next generation and so ensuring that there still will be a society by the time he gets old. So it's only fair that the childless should somehow subsidize the raising of children. Most childless think that by paying taxes they do that (like "I don't receive any education any more etc."), they just don't understand the order of magnitude of child-raising costs.

    It’s even worth in the US, where family guy has to pay more in taxes than a single person. Having a family with 2 children if I make 120k per year I end up paying way more percentage-wise in taxes than a single person making 30k per year. Even though we make the same amount per capita. Person making 30k would hardly pay any taxes (exclude standard deduction and personal exemption), only 19k will be taxed at low rate.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @LatW

    Some countries’ geography is such that they sit right inbetween two powerful civilizations. This geography often makes them naturally multicultural, but it also makes them natural trading partners and, sadly, natural battle grounds for their powerful neighbors. The prudent thing to do for such countries is to practice inclusivity internally, to avoid unrest and sectarianism, and to promote trade and neutrality externally, to turn their multicultural identity into an asset.
     
    This sounds good. It sounds almost like something that Lars Ohly would say. :) Or even Anders Aslund who peddles his neoliberal theories in Eastern European countries but who would be boo'd out immediately in his own native Sweden.

    I suppose, multi-culturalism can at times be an asset, but, as countries such as Sweden might eventually find out, it can also be a liability. Inclusivity and all that is nice, but at whose expense? And then at one point, you start to think why invest in this country / society when there are a ton of other multi-cultural countries out there, right? What's the difference? Unless there is already traditionally peace between different cultures, and unless there is some eventual benefit to it, as you seem to imply, why should one culture pay for the other culture to thrive? It's not the job of any country to pay to maintain another country's culture. It's good to build a pleasant environment for everyone. It attracts good people. But it can also be the other way around.

    But the reason I asked about these "bridges" (and I didn't mean to be passive aggressive, I'm genuinely interested if there is something out there that these Western Eurasianists know about that I don't), was because in today's world of ICBM's, hacking, email, easy visas, etc., geography, while still a factor, has become a little relative. If an Anglo guy feels in his heart the call of the steppe, nothing is keeping him from moving to Asia and investing in one of the cultures there to facilitate Eurasianism and live happily. What bridge does one need? Just find friends! If you're talking about business, then establish your channels, hire some local partners, and the rest is just work and trial and error - there is no mystical bridge that'll solve all your trust issues, etc., like a goose that will lay you golden eggs forever. It's all trial and error anyway. These days it's all about access and competitiveness, not some mystical "bridges". The Baltic countries are trying to work with Kazakhstan now, it looks somewhat promising. Would be great to work more with Japan, but in Japan you can only sell a very finely crafted, specialized product (we've had some limited success). China is a separate question (they tried to steal one of our brands or some other crazy stuff like that -- that's Eurasia for you!). As to your definition of a "natural trading partner", yes, Russia definitely is one (lots of potential). But then I'd say, any potential trading partner who wants what you offer is a "natural trading partner".

    But Russia will do what they want, regardless who you are. I can share a funny story: some time in 2005, around the time when the power consolidation in Russia started taking real shape, I was with a group that had dinner with a Statoil executive in Norway, who was trying to win a bid to drill in the Shtokman field (they were competing with a French company). The guy was wondering who in the industry he should be talking to win the contract. There was a Russian from Latvia in our group who was very straightforward and said "This kind of a thing will be decided only by the Kremlin". The dude was a bit startled ("You mean I should go straight to Moscow?"). In the end, the Kremlin decided to deny contracts to all of the foreign companies. "Fig im", as Vladimir Vladimirovich would say, meaning "you won't be getting anything" (I don't blame him, it's a strategic sector). Namely, whatever "bridge" one builds, their own interests will always come first and the unpredictability factor remains (embargo or not).

    I would also add that the true cost of Latvia’s hostility toward Russia would have to include the opportunity cost (the potential benefits forgone by a course of action), so its present fortunes cannot be viewed in isolation.
     
    I wouldn't call wanting to not be finlandized hostility. You're right that there could be an opportunity cost, but there is also a cost for being finlandized. The Russian gas or more access to their market wouldn't be cheaper for us either way because there would be an added cost of the political demands that we'd have to fulfill - even if there was no Nato, etc - (in the case of my people, unlike in the case of the Finnish people in the 1950s and onwards, that cost could at some point become existential). Even if we distance ourselves from the ethnic and political, the sheer time and energy it would take to, let's say, teach every new generation the Russian language - would add to the costs. That means a Latvian parent would have to now teach their kid not only English (because you can't live without it), but also Russian - a very beautiful, valuable, but tough language. That would take away from learning other important things. You couldn't make it optional because in a multi-cultural and bilingual society it eventually becomes a necessity (people in the Baltics mostly live together, not separately like the Waloons and Flemmish). You're basically saying our kids must be raised bilingual in their own native country, just because there are some Russian kids, too, but, hey, they'll be a little richer (while still subjecting our businesses to the whims of the Kremlin and a fluctuating political environment -- which we, btw, don't have nearly as much control over as you seem to imply). For some to learn it would make sense (business, esp. hospitality, military, academics, etc), but not massively. In any event, we do trade with Russia quite a bit. Exports in general have grown (last year was a very healthy year). Interestingly, direct investment from Russia continues to grow. And, frankly, in the long term it's easier to work with those who are somewhat predictable and don't demand access to your political system, be it Qatar, Denmark or Estonia -- because political costs accumulate, too, and, as I said, geography no longer matters as much.

    Hello LatW, and thanks for the long reply!

    As to your definition of a “natural trading partner”, yes, Russia definitely is one (lots of potential). But then I’d say, any potential trading partner who wants what you offer is a “natural trading partner”.

    Yes, but there is more to it than that. My implicit assumption — which I didn’t spell out, sorry — was that geographical proximity also leads to cultural know-how and the growth of bilingual speakers, both of which are very important in business dealings. Trade is not only about wants and haves.

    But Russia will do what they want, regardless who you are. I can share a funny story: some time in 2005, around the time when the power consolidation in Russia started taking real shape, I was with a group that had dinner with a Statoil executive in Norway, who was trying to win a bid to drill in the Shtokman field (they were competing with a French company). The guy was wondering who in the industry he should be talking to win the contract. There was a Russian from Latvia in our group who was very straightforward and said “This kind of a thing will be decided only by the Kremlin”. The dude was a bit startled (“You mean I should go straight to Moscow?”). In the end, the Kremlin decided to deny contracts to all of the foreign companies. “Fig im”, as Vladimir Vladimirovich would say, meaning “you won’t be getting anything”

    I can believe it. :) But this proves my point above wonderfully.

    I wouldn’t call wanting to not be finlandized hostility. You’re right that there could be an opportunity cost, but there is also a cost for being finlandized. The Russian gas or more access to their market wouldn’t be cheaper for us either way because there would be an added cost of the political demands that we’d have to fulfill – even if there was no Nato, etc – (in the case of my people, unlike in the case of the Finnish people in the 1950s and onwards, that cost could at some point become existential).

    You may well be right, although I would argue that you could tone down the war rhetoric a little with no loss to your autonomy.

    Even if we distance ourselves from the ethnic and political, the sheer time and energy it would take to, let’s say, teach every new generation the Russian language – would add to the costs. That means a Latvian parent would have to now teach their kid not only English (because you can’t live without it), but also Russian – a very beautiful, valuable, but tough language. That would take away from learning other important things. You couldn’t make it optional because in a multi-cultural and bilingual society it eventually becomes a necessity (people in the Baltics mostly live together, not separately like the Waloons and Flemmish).

    Language questions are delicate and must be resolved by looking at the specific context at hand. Latvia’s draconian language and citizenship laws are defensible, I think, on historical and existential grounds. Your language and culture face very real dangers of dying out in a free market exchange, so it makes sense for the state to intervene. More than that, your cultural heritage is fully ethnically Latvian, or something like it, so protecting your language and culture also preserves historical continuity. The situation in Ukraine is not nearly as straightforward, but we can have that discussion some other time.

    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?

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    • Replies: @LatW
    My goal here wasn't to read you dissect Latvia or Ukraine, but to find genuine answers to what "Lisbon to Vladivostok" means in practice. Oh well.

    As to the "war rhetoric" - most of it is coming from the Anglo media. In 2016 it got so bad at one point, that even the former Estonian president had to ask them to calm down. Btw, there was a graph floating around here recently that showed that Sweden is more Russophobic than the Baltic states.


    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?
     
    "Nearly all" is a big exaggeration. Many do, but not all (there are countless jobs where you don't need either Russian or English), and out of those that do, it's not mostly work in Russian (those jobs would technically require Russian as a desired skill but it would be used only occasionally). But, yea, it can be a problem I alluded to above. The people of Russian extraction mostly understand Latvian and they have no problem shopping (they do it every day). The Russians from Moscow that visit for the Orthodox Christmas seem to be doing fine, too. As I already mentioned, in some areas it is useful (certain types of business, communicating with our friends, etc).

    Btw, I know that there are counsellors in Sweden who talk to the new immigrants, I was wondering what language they spoke and if they'd soon have to learn Arabic.
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Dmitry

    You are still young enough to have children later, but ultimately someone who has no children in life, unless they have generated a lot of income or made some other great contribution, are parasites. When you get old, someone else’s kids will be carrying on for you (assuming you never have children later). While childless people spend their earnings on themselves, those with children are spending their earnings on an investment in society’s future.
     
    While it's interesting to think about and discuss, I entirely lack emotional sentiments about 'society's future' (when I am dead, who gives shit).

    With the little free time from work, aside from procrastinating on the internet - the most enjoyment in life is meeting girls, friends from other countries, buying nice things, travelling and having your own income. I think this is very common and what organized people do when they have the opportunity.

    I'm sure I'll have kids in my late-thirties. And not more than one or two.

    While it’s interesting to think about and discuss, I entirely lack emotional sentiments about ‘society’s future’ (when I am dead, who gives shit).

    ‘society’s future’ – supporting nihilists like you when they get older. Masses are ready to commit national suicide just to get a new iphone or ipad rather than start having children. That’s why we need government to promote large families and offset the cost of rearing a child through taxation of singles.

    Even in places like Ammurica, where worker is supposed put away some money, buy stocks to save for retirement etc. The stocks will be worthless in 20-40 years unless there are enough workers and consumers to support the whole system.

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  • @Dmitry


    To add to my above comment where the conclusion was omitted, as shown in the studies – religion is not really a factor in lowering abortion rates, whether in Russia or in foreign countries
     
    Would that still be true if we controlled for contraception usage? I somehow doubt it. I have been told that contraceptions are far less common in eastern Europe than in the West, where practically every young woman is on the pill.
     
    According to the study I linked earlier* - it says that abortion is most common in the age 25-29 women age group, where it is often used to delay couples's having children (i.e. as a kind of last-ditch contraception within relationships).

    This would support your fair point.

    But the contrary issue is that religiosity is not the same in Russia (or much of Europe in general), as in America or the Middle East. Religion has more symbolic and ritual value - but there is not much evidence of impact on behaviour. To put it bluntly, the average religion-identifying people are not behaving like American Mormons. People are living a normal secular life-style, with religion as a more symbolic identity. (The somewhat more conservative attitudes on things like homosexuality themselves are not that much to do with religion either - in Soviet secularism, these social attitudes were more conservative still.)

    ---

    *Footnote https://demreview.hse.ru/data/2014/07/15/1312456972/5_%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2_%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87_%D0%90%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D1%8B%20%D0%B2%20%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf

    I’d same for Russian stating he’s Orthodox doesn’t imply that he is actually religious. Most people visit church once a year at best to “consecrate bread” on Easter. You can ask:
    - Are you Orthodox
    - Yes
    - Do you believe in Jesus Christ
    - Eh, … I guess …
    In Russia Orthodoxy (namely) has become part of Russian identity, part of being Russian. It is similar in Greece, Armenia, Poland etc.

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    • Replies: @AP

    In Russia Orthodoxy (namely) has become part of Russian identity, part of being Russian. It is similar in Greece, Armenia, Poland etc
     
    As of 2013 48% of Poles go to church at least once a week, in comparison to 27% of Greeks and 8% of Russians (latter figure actually seems high to me).
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  • @Cicerone
    Well, when you have in Western Turkey the same TFR as American Whites have (around 1.7-1.8) and in the East you have the Kurds with 3.5 children per woman, you get it. The Kurds may be not as distinct culturally to the Turks as the immigrants in the West are to the netives, but saying that non-Western countries are spared of that fate of cultural replacement is wrong.

    Mind you, I am the complete opposite of a supporter of the current mass migration and destruction of the West.

    The difference: In Turkey their leader, Erdogan, urges women to have more children because Turks have problem with fertility. Apparently, he understands the danger of high-TFR among Kurds to Turkish state.
    On the other hand, you’ll be labeled sexist, racist, misogynist pig, xenophobic etc, etc, etc just for pointing out the obvious: dying out/replacement of white population.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, exactly - Britain honored its obligations to Belgium. Functionally that meant siding with France against Germany, so why nitpick?

    And all the histories I've read indicate 1914 was a close run thing, and only failed because a whole bunch of events turned out not in Germany's favor - amongst which the quick dislocation of crack British troops to Belgium was one of the main ones.

    When the French ambassador was begging in London for Britain to enter the war, he said little or nothing about the phony pretext of Belgian neutrality, and much about the covert arrangements which his counterparts in the Foreign Office and army had undertaken without informing parliament, the cabinet, or even (with any specificity) the prime minister himself.

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Dmitry

    Comparing Russian births to France and UK – those countries are only high birth-rate because of their Muslim populations. I would have preferred a UK full of Brits with a falling population, the place is overcrowded as it is. UK and France should not be your population models.
     
    The situations are somewhat analogous. The highest birthrate (fertility superstar) regions in Russia are the ones where the vast majority of the population are not Russians.

    But according to the blog-author above, taking out the top regions only impacts fertility rates by 0.1.

    It’s not all black and white. According to this data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_total_fertility_rate in 2016:
    Novosibirsk region (1.80) or Krasnoyarsk Krai (1.82) had higher TFR than non-Russian Kabardino-Balkaria(1.72) or KCR(1.52).
    The non-Russian regions with high-fertility (DIC, Tuva, Sakha, Altai) represent a small share of Russia population. Excluding them from the statistics wouldn’t impact birth rate significantly.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    I'm rooting for Russia, but what I'm hearing is that the ethnic-Russian population is declining in every oblast / region. Anything less than 2.0 TFR, or really 2.1, means the population is dying out.

    Absent real changes, the only question is how fast it will die out and how fast a competing people will assert their political, economic, and cultural clout at the expense of ethnic Russians.
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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view - It's a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world "will be peaceful and [continue to] progress", even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people's investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

    I disagree, and, with all due respect, here I think you are providing the authentic ‘sperg viewpoint. (Which is I think where Dmitry is also coming from.)

    time discount rate

    I can’t remember much from microeconomics about time preference, but I think it was just normally assumed as a given. I’m lazy to search for it online.

    But if you stop to think about it, there are at least two sources for it. Please let me know if you can think of a third reason to discount the future.

    Reason A: The future is unknown, and the more distant future is the one we have the least information about. The future promise might be broken due to unforeseen circumstances, so the larger later reward might never come.

    Reason B: It’s better to enjoy the rewards while young. Self-explanatory: a smaller sooner reward is actually bigger because being old will discount any reward to a great extent. Having a Lada at age 18 might be a better girlfriend magnet than having a Ferrari at age 80, so it’s perfectly rational to choose the former over the latter.

    I don’t dismiss argument A: yes, there’s some uncertainty as to what the demography of France will be in 2050, though the thing about demographic predictions is that at least partly they actually predict the past: if 35% of all newborn this year are nonwhite, than it’s not difficult to predict that absent any huge cataclysmic event by 2050 35% of all 32-year-olds will be nonwhite. That’s not a difficult prediction. If the portion among newborns has increased by 1% point annually for the past fifteen or twenty years, than it’s also not very difficult to predict that it will be over 50% after 2040, again, absent some cataclysmic events.

    But Dmitry is arguing for reason B: that it’s better to enjoy things while we live. He is willing to completely discount the future – he doesn’t seem to care for whatever happens to his descendants. Not just “it’s more important to get by now, and let my kids deal with future challenges when they come in their way,” but rather “I know the world is going down the drain, but who cares? I’ll have the good life till I live, and I don’t even care if my children will be exterminated afterwards.” This is psychopathic. As I wrote, I don’t think he’s a psychopath, he’s just probably trying to argue “rationally” something (perhaps against his own gut feelings) which is not well thought out by him.

    My point is the following: if the question is about our descendants, especially the possibility of their extinction, then time preference doesn’t apply at all.

    Let me give you a thought experiments:

    1) HARD TIMES LEAD TO EVENTUAL SUCCESS
    Let’s assume your ethnicity (this could be Russians for you, Jews for Dmitry, but he can also choose Russians or whichever he pleases, could be Germans for German_reader, Britons or the English for Randal, etc.) will be nearly exterminated after our deaths. Let’s assume with the exception of 100,000 each and every member of our respective ethnicities will be exterminated 100 years hence. Let’s assume your descendants will be among the survivors. The survivors will then form a close-kit ethnic religion with no intermarriage and little contact with the outside world. (We find refuge on the distant side of the Moon or wherever.) And then, 1,000 years later, all of humanity will be wiped out by a huge asteroid strike – except for the descendants of our ethnic group, who are hiding somewhere. Then our descendants will get out of hiding, and inherit the Earth. They will within a few centuries build a richer and happier world, and soon colonize other planets or whatever.

    2) INITIAL SUCCESS BUT EVENTUAL FAILURE
    In 100 years your ethnicity conquers the Earth and become overlords. However, 1,000 years later, the asteroid destroys the planet, leading to the complete wipeout of your descendants. The Earth will be inherited by a weird sect which spent all those years in hiding (maybe from the all-mighty empire of your ethnicity).

    Which do you choose? Neither means personal discomfort to you. But in one, your descendants will be the ultimate lords of the Earth, forever (or until there is humanity at all – all humans will be your descendants). But only after a huge tragedy befell them. And then they will have to wait for their luck in great discomfort for a long time. In the second scenario, though your descendants manage to conquer the planet and live in great comfort for dozens of generations, eventually they will all get wiped out.

    Would you choose 2) or 1)? I think it’s obvious that 1) is vastly better than 2): the former promises eventual paradise, while the latter gratification for your grandchildren, but at the price of their later descendants completely getting wiped out.

    So, discounting time preferences beyond your lifetime is only legitimate because you don’t quite know the future: you cannot know if being nearly exterminated can lead in the later future some untold gains – you simply cannot predict the future (in this case, the asteroid).

    Dmitry argues that he’d rather just enjoy personal comfort and let his descendants (this must include his yet-to-be-born kid or kids) suffer. He doesn’t care. That’s psychopathic.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Singh
    Idk, China sent mercenaries after the Hindu states in Tarim Basin & later islamized Java Malaya to counter the Majapahit।।

    Furthermore, now it supports Islamic Terroristan & christian Naxal Maoists who were originally cow protection rebels।। LOL

    From Dharmic perspective, China is an abrahamic garrison state who burnt almost all of its temples during cultural revolution।।

    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾ।।ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ।।

    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

    I don’t really have anything against white Christian men. Some of my best friends are white Christian men and I owe my life in many ways to white Christian men. I also like reading works by white Christian men.

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

    Remove vindaloo.

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    • Replies: @Singh
    They have 2 paths

    white Christian
    Son of Evropa

    Stand beside Moses who sacrifices the golden calf
    Bow to Mother Evropa who rides the white bull

    With the Aryas whom Prithvi Ma loves & blesses
    Or

    The melechas who are cursed to wander through desert।।

    You can be a BhoomiPutra (son of soil)

    Or

    A bastard।।

    Whether that bastard is born through a Roman soldier or through conversion

    Is irrelevant।।
    , @iffen
    It's okay to like whites. :)
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Dmitry

    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don’t have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland’s population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year — before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.
     

    While I share your point of view about undesirability of the demographics and so on, I highly doubt that a country as successful as Switzerland cannot continue to maintain their quality of life. I highly doubt (short of some radical unforeseen events) it will not still be a great place to live in the 2050s. And direct democracy in Switzerland is also very willing to do moderate, but still somewhat politically incorrect policies when it seems required - see the Muzzin ban.

    I think you mean the minaret ban, correct?

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Daniel Chieh

    Japan is sponsoring a lot of infrastructure/cultural projects & providing jobs to the best tech graduates।।

     

    I believe that they can thrive gloriously and co-prosperously in a great sphere centered around Asia, or so I've heard.

    Idk, China sent mercenaries after the Hindu states in Tarim Basin & later islamized Java Malaya to counter the Majapahit।।

    Furthermore, now it supports Islamic Terroristan & christian Naxal Maoists who were originally cow protection rebels।। LOL

    From Dharmic perspective, China is an abrahamic garrison state who burnt almost all of its temples during cultural revolution।।

    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾ।।ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ।।

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh


    The destruction of the white christian man starts with our own states which must be reformed।।

     

    I don't really have anything against white Christian men. Some of my best friends are white Christian men and I owe my life in many ways to white Christian men. I also like reading works by white Christian men.

    Both Secular Apartheid India & Genocidal Communist China।।

     

    Remove vindaloo.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • Solution to demographic crisis stares in the face. Bring back those parts of the Soviet system after removal of which demographic fell of the cliff. People stopped valuing that system by the end of 80s due to sheer stupidity unlike previous generations who knew beastly capitalism. Now people would value it a lot more after 27 years of hard schooling. It is difficult to produce kids when they are this expensive and there os no confidence in tomorrow. When there were 7 kids pe family on average they were like dime and dozen cheap and provided quick profit. Kids started working often at 6. Died often too. No regulations. No need for kindergarten. Demographic can be resolved either Soviet or sub Sahara region style.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @polskijoe
    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their "national wealth" is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?

    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their “national wealth” is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?

    It’s a product of history. The Soviet Union built lots of small apartments (which were an upgrade on the communal apartments of before the war). So today the majority of the ‘housing stock’ are apartments and they were constructed in high density, for cities in which most people did not yet have automobiles.

    In addition, I believe there is a cultural element – that people prefer living in apartments (ultimately apartments are cheaper and easier to maintain than houses, and easier if you feel lazy about maintenance issues). So most new construction is also for apartments.

    This also has to do with why Russia is a ‘cat loving country’, while America is a ‘dog loving country’. Cats are more apartment animals, while dogs – it’s usually better to have a house.

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    I am amazed at the number of Russians who keep large dogs in small apartments. Dachas are part of this equation. A small flat in Frunzenskaya for the winter but a big dacha by the Volga for Summer. It is not so easy to compare Russian housing with the UK or USA.
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Ron Unz
    Given the focus of this thread, I'll take the liberty of reposting portions of a couple of my recent comments on a different thread that veered wildly off-topic in several directions:

    ===========

    ...the widespread belief among Western pundits that it’s extremely difficult for the government to raise the birthrates in developed countries has always seemed totally ridiculous to me. Obviously, an “unserious” effort might or might not be successful, but I think a *serious* one almost certainly would be.

    Suppose, for example, that anyone over 25 but not yet married would have their tax rate raised by 10 percentage points. Surely, young marriages would quickly skyrocket.

    Now suppose that anyone over 30 without a child also had their tax rate raised by 10 percentage points. Surely, first births to young couples would also quickly skyrocket.

    Adjust a few parameters here and there, and pretty much any reasonable level of TFR should be easily achievable, while simultaneously generating generating extra billions in cash for building monuments to the leaders responsible.

    * * *

    I’ve sometimes mentioned this in the context of silly people saying “it’s impossible” for China to reverse its demographic decline with government policies. Nope, I tell them, it’s exactly pretty easy. The Chinese government probably thinks they already have plenty of Chinese, but if they ever decide they really need more, they could certainly produce as many as desired…

    Hey, Ron.

    Could you comment on the memo release and offer your analysis?

    Thanks.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • Some countries’ geography is such that they sit right inbetween two powerful civilizations. This geography often makes them naturally multicultural, but it also makes them natural trading partners and, sadly, natural battle grounds for their powerful neighbors. The prudent thing to do for such countries is to practice inclusivity internally, to avoid unrest and sectarianism, and to promote trade and neutrality externally, to turn their multicultural identity into an asset.

    This sounds good. It sounds almost like something that Lars Ohly would say. :) Or even Anders Aslund who peddles his neoliberal theories in Eastern European countries but who would be boo’d out immediately in his own native Sweden.

    I suppose, multi-culturalism can at times be an asset, but, as countries such as Sweden might eventually find out, it can also be a liability. Inclusivity and all that is nice, but at whose expense? And then at one point, you start to think why invest in this country / society when there are a ton of other multi-cultural countries out there, right? What’s the difference? Unless there is already traditionally peace between different cultures, and unless there is some eventual benefit to it, as you seem to imply, why should one culture pay for the other culture to thrive? It’s not the job of any country to pay to maintain another country’s culture. It’s good to build a pleasant environment for everyone. It attracts good people. But it can also be the other way around.

    But the reason I asked about these “bridges” (and I didn’t mean to be passive aggressive, I’m genuinely interested if there is something out there that these Western Eurasianists know about that I don’t), was because in today’s world of ICBM’s, hacking, email, easy visas, etc., geography, while still a factor, has become a little relative. If an Anglo guy feels in his heart the call of the steppe, nothing is keeping him from moving to Asia and investing in one of the cultures there to facilitate Eurasianism and live happily. What bridge does one need? Just find friends! If you’re talking about business, then establish your channels, hire some local partners, and the rest is just work and trial and error – there is no mystical bridge that’ll solve all your trust issues, etc., like a goose that will lay you golden eggs forever. It’s all trial and error anyway. These days it’s all about access and competitiveness, not some mystical “bridges”. The Baltic countries are trying to work with Kazakhstan now, it looks somewhat promising. Would be great to work more with Japan, but in Japan you can only sell a very finely crafted, specialized product (we’ve had some limited success). China is a separate question (they tried to steal one of our brands or some other crazy stuff like that — that’s Eurasia for you!). As to your definition of a “natural trading partner”, yes, Russia definitely is one (lots of potential). But then I’d say, any potential trading partner who wants what you offer is a “natural trading partner”.

    But Russia will do what they want, regardless who you are. I can share a funny story: some time in 2005, around the time when the power consolidation in Russia started taking real shape, I was with a group that had dinner with a Statoil executive in Norway, who was trying to win a bid to drill in the Shtokman field (they were competing with a French company). The guy was wondering who in the industry he should be talking to win the contract. There was a Russian from Latvia in our group who was very straightforward and said “This kind of a thing will be decided only by the Kremlin”. The dude was a bit startled (“You mean I should go straight to Moscow?”). In the end, the Kremlin decided to deny contracts to all of the foreign companies. “Fig im”, as Vladimir Vladimirovich would say, meaning “you won’t be getting anything” (I don’t blame him, it’s a strategic sector). Namely, whatever “bridge” one builds, their own interests will always come first and the unpredictability factor remains (embargo or not).

    I would also add that the true cost of Latvia’s hostility toward Russia would have to include the opportunity cost (the potential benefits forgone by a course of action), so its present fortunes cannot be viewed in isolation.

    I wouldn’t call wanting to not be finlandized hostility. You’re right that there could be an opportunity cost, but there is also a cost for being finlandized. The Russian gas or more access to their market wouldn’t be cheaper for us either way because there would be an added cost of the political demands that we’d have to fulfill – even if there was no Nato, etc – (in the case of my people, unlike in the case of the Finnish people in the 1950s and onwards, that cost could at some point become existential). Even if we distance ourselves from the ethnic and political, the sheer time and energy it would take to, let’s say, teach every new generation the Russian language – would add to the costs. That means a Latvian parent would have to now teach their kid not only English (because you can’t live without it), but also Russian – a very beautiful, valuable, but tough language. That would take away from learning other important things. You couldn’t make it optional because in a multi-cultural and bilingual society it eventually becomes a necessity (people in the Baltics mostly live together, not separately like the Waloons and Flemmish). You’re basically saying our kids must be raised bilingual in their own native country, just because there are some Russian kids, too, but, hey, they’ll be a little richer (while still subjecting our businesses to the whims of the Kremlin and a fluctuating political environment — which we, btw, don’t have nearly as much control over as you seem to imply). For some to learn it would make sense (business, esp. hospitality, military, academics, etc), but not massively. In any event, we do trade with Russia quite a bit. Exports in general have grown (last year was a very healthy year). Interestingly, direct investment from Russia continues to grow. And, frankly, in the long term it’s easier to work with those who are somewhat predictable and don’t demand access to your political system, be it Qatar, Denmark or Estonia — because political costs accumulate, too, and, as I said, geography no longer matters as much.

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    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    Hello LatW, and thanks for the long reply!

    As to your definition of a “natural trading partner”, yes, Russia definitely is one (lots of potential). But then I’d say, any potential trading partner who wants what you offer is a “natural trading partner”.
     
    Yes, but there is more to it than that. My implicit assumption -- which I didn't spell out, sorry -- was that geographical proximity also leads to cultural know-how and the growth of bilingual speakers, both of which are very important in business dealings. Trade is not only about wants and haves.

    But Russia will do what they want, regardless who you are. I can share a funny story: some time in 2005, around the time when the power consolidation in Russia started taking real shape, I was with a group that had dinner with a Statoil executive in Norway, who was trying to win a bid to drill in the Shtokman field (they were competing with a French company). The guy was wondering who in the industry he should be talking to win the contract. There was a Russian from Latvia in our group who was very straightforward and said “This kind of a thing will be decided only by the Kremlin”. The dude was a bit startled (“You mean I should go straight to Moscow?”). In the end, the Kremlin decided to deny contracts to all of the foreign companies. “Fig im”, as Vladimir Vladimirovich would say, meaning “you won’t be getting anything”
     
    I can believe it. :) But this proves my point above wonderfully.

    I wouldn’t call wanting to not be finlandized hostility. You’re right that there could be an opportunity cost, but there is also a cost for being finlandized. The Russian gas or more access to their market wouldn’t be cheaper for us either way because there would be an added cost of the political demands that we’d have to fulfill – even if there was no Nato, etc – (in the case of my people, unlike in the case of the Finnish people in the 1950s and onwards, that cost could at some point become existential).
     

    You may well be right, although I would argue that you could tone down the war rhetoric a little with no loss to your autonomy.

    Even if we distance ourselves from the ethnic and political, the sheer time and energy it would take to, let’s say, teach every new generation the Russian language – would add to the costs. That means a Latvian parent would have to now teach their kid not only English (because you can’t live without it), but also Russian – a very beautiful, valuable, but tough language. That would take away from learning other important things. You couldn’t make it optional because in a multi-cultural and bilingual society it eventually becomes a necessity (people in the Baltics mostly live together, not separately like the Waloons and Flemmish).
     

    Language questions are delicate and must be resolved by looking at the specific context at hand. Latvia's draconian language and citizenship laws are defensible, I think, on historical and existential grounds. Your language and culture face very real dangers of dying out in a free market exchange, so it makes sense for the state to intervene. More than that, your cultural heritage is fully ethnically Latvian, or something like it, so protecting your language and culture also preserves historical continuity. The situation in Ukraine is not nearly as straightforward, but we can have that discussion some other time.

    By the way, some friends of mine told me that nearly all Latvian employers demand that their workers speak fluent Russian. Is that really so?

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @RadicalCenter
    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don't have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland's population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year -- before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.

    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don’t have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland’s population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year — before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.

    While I share your point of view about undesirability of the demographics and so on, I highly doubt that a country as successful as Switzerland cannot continue to maintain their quality of life. I highly doubt (short of some radical unforeseen events) it will not still be a great place to live in the 2050s. And direct democracy in Switzerland is also very willing to do moderate, but still somewhat politically incorrect policies when it seems required – see the Muzzin ban.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    I think you mean the minaret ban, correct?
    , @RadicalCenter
    Bans on muezzins doing the call to prayer, or restrictions on the construction of mosques or the size of mosques or the height of minarets, are all grossly inadequate measures.

    Until and unless Switzerland stops Muslim immigration and settlement, Muslims will continue to come and will continue to constitute an ever-greater proportion of the population. In time the Muslims will gain the political strength to repeal the measures mentioned above and, to the contrary, start imposing sharia "law."

    Switzerland being such a successful country does not in any way give us rational cause for optimism under current circumstances. It is a successful country because of its people and its culture, and those will continue to change for the worse unless serious measures are implemented fairly soon.

    Germany will go under first, from the look of it, but our Swiss cousins won't be all that far behind.
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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @YetAnotherAnon
    It's very odd that people should live in such small apartments. Russia isn't short of space.

    And hopefully they haven't got into the situation that the UK, Canadian and Australian governments are in - that bringing property prices down to a sane level (like a 60% decline) would wipe out the moneylenders, and that therefore property prices won't come down.

    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their “national wealth” is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their “national wealth” is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?
     

    It's a product of history. The Soviet Union built lots of small apartments (which were an upgrade on the communal apartments of before the war). So today the majority of the 'housing stock' are apartments and they were constructed in high density, for cities in which most people did not yet have automobiles.

    In addition, I believe there is a cultural element - that people prefer living in apartments (ultimately apartments are cheaper and easier to maintain than houses, and easier if you feel lazy about maintenance issues). So most new construction is also for apartments.

    This also has to do with why Russia is a 'cat loving country', while America is a 'dog loving country'. Cats are more apartment animals, while dogs - it's usually better to have a house.

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  • @Anon

    You’re missing the obvious and easiest solution: make real estate cheap.
     
    Yes, very much this. The Japanese adore children, their society offers lots of help and appreciation to moms and babies (see this article by a Russian woman in Japan) - but damn, these tiny apartments...
    http://letters.komarovskiy.net/schastlivoe-yaponskoe-detstvo.html
    The Russian amounts of living space per family are tragic. My cousin lives in a 2-bedroom flat with her parents, brother, husband and 2 kids. Of course she's not having more than 2. And if the brother doesn't marry some rich heiress, it will become a problem for him to find a place to reproduce.

    It’s very odd that people should live in such small apartments. Russia isn’t short of space.

    And hopefully they haven’t got into the situation that the UK, Canadian and Australian governments are in – that bringing property prices down to a sane level (like a 60% decline) would wipe out the moneylenders, and that therefore property prices won’t come down.

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    • Replies: @polskijoe
    While the Russian GDP PPP is okay (and could probably be higher up to Japans).
    Their "national wealth" is poor for such a nation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_wealth (figures on the right side)

    Im not an economic expert but maybe that plays a role?
    Perhaps relating to the state of buildings and homes?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • A highly unusual paper on Putin — actually, a breathtaking report by a witness — by Sharon Tennison: https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2018/01/28/is-putin-profoundly-corrupt-or-incorruptible/
    Sharon’s plea illustrates the degree of unfreedom of the US press:
    “Some of you were around Putin in the earlier years. Please share your opinions, pro and con …. confidentiality will be assured. It’s important to develop a composite picture of this demonized leader and get the record straight. I’m quite sure that 99% of those who excoriate him in mainstream media have had no personal contact with him at all. They write articles on hearsay, rumors and fabrication, or they read scripts others have written on their tele-prompters. This is how our nation gets its “news”, such as it is.
    There is a well known code of ethics among us: Is it the Truth, Is it Fair, Does it build Friendship and Goodwill, and Will it be Beneficial for All Concerned? It seems to me that if our nation’s leaders would commit to using these four principles in international relations, the world would operate in a completely different manner, and human beings across this planet would live in better conditions than they do today.”

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    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    That is an excellent article. Thanks for the link.
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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @reiner Tor
    By far the biggest difficulty is having a child under two. Actually, the first few months are the most difficult. So having three children is not nearly three times more difficult than having just one. Children can also play with each other. Older children can look after the little ones for a short while. My acquaintances with more children told me that a seven year old can be left alone at home for a short time, and even if there is a smaller child. That makes it vastly easier to handle more children - one of them will be older. It’s easier to make the second child sleep in the kids‘ room, because the only child would be forced to sleep alone, while the second child already has company, and he might actually prefer sleeping with the brother or sister instead of Poppy and Mommy.

    Then there’s the question of experience. Having a child the second time is easier, because you have experience. You won’t worry so much about the child being ill, or throwing a tantrum, or whatever. You will also know what to expect, so won’t have to improvise so much.

    By the way the material incentives might mean that you have more money for a nanny than otherwise. Actually, having just one nanny for three children might be enough. Probably more expensive than if she only had to look after one child, but cheaper than three nannies.

    I know, and our friends with 3 kids are pretty easygoing and energetic, on some conditions: big gaps between kids, big support from extended families, no disabilities. It can get tough if your personal situation is not so lucky. For example:

    “I became pregnant on our honeymoon, and promptly ended up with hyperemesis gravidarium, made famous by Kate Middleton, only I didn’t get the same kind of attention lavished on me. I just had to suck it up and hope I could survive. I gave birth to a premature son, I had no milk to nurse him and had to bottlefeed from the start. I had six children in ten years. I have six grade levels to teach this year and I am solely responsible for their education, plus any extracurriculars (each plays one instrument and one sport; their music and P.E.). Additionally, I have all other traditional responsibilities of a wife and mother. Training your children to help you is an arduous task that requires loads of patience, loads of time and loads of effort…..not as simple as some would expect.”

    https://thepracticalconservative.wordpress.com/2016/04/28/about-women-delaying-marriage/#comment-7913

    By the way the material incentives might mean that you have more money for a nanny than otherwise. Actually, having just one nanny for three children might be enough. Probably more expensive than if she only had to look after one child, but cheaper than three nannies

    And that’s good, but when you just get money, your family pressure you into buying more kid clothes and toys, because it makes them feel better (even if the kid is prefectly happy with what he already has) and you can’t really need rest, can you? (I need it but am polite enough to appear cheerful and not bother people with my troubles.) Special discounts for house help would help the money actually do the useful work (say, end sleep deprivation and raise energy levels of parents). Three nannies are totally in the millionaire territory, I used it as a hyperbole.

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  • @Dmitry

    We’re not talking about some distant future, we’re talking about 30-40 years from now, that is well within the probable lifetime of young people alive today. By current trends the native populations in much of Western Europe will become minorities at some time in the 2050s and 2060s. Major trouble and civil strife will in all probability happen well before that, as will the collapse of the pensions and welfare systems (the combination of the baby boomers going into retirement plus having to provide for unproductive, parasitical “refugees” will crush the native working population under an immense burden and will accelerate the demographic death spiral for the native population, with many who have the necessary financial means and skills probably fleeing to the US or Oceania, or maybe even China).
     
    This is very pessimistic. I do not have such pessimistic views of political future. But if I did - I would leave open the Montaigne point of view, where he 'retreats to his tower'. Assuming you don't have a tower, there will surely be places you would move to like Switzerland which will be still great in the 2050s, even if Germany starts to follow a suicidal path in the future decades.

    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don’t have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland’s population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year — before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don’t have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland’s population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year — before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.
     

    While I share your point of view about undesirability of the demographics and so on, I highly doubt that a country as successful as Switzerland cannot continue to maintain their quality of life. I highly doubt (short of some radical unforeseen events) it will not still be a great place to live in the 2050s. And direct democracy in Switzerland is also very willing to do moderate, but still somewhat politically incorrect policies when it seems required - see the Muzzin ban.
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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view - It's a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world "will be peaceful and [continue to] progress", even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people's investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

    Interesting point.

    But can’t we expect that only a tiny percentage of the population will be able to afford life-extending technologies? Many people even in the USA, Canada, and Europe will be struggling just to provide for their families and cling to something less than what we consider a “First World” standard of living.

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  • @Mitleser

    Imagine in 2150 (arbitrary number, I don’t know the calculations), it will become a partly Muslim country.
     
    You mean like Germany?! :O

    Share of Muslims among grade schoolers in NRW, most populous German state

    https://kartenseite.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/nrw-gemeinden-grundschueler-1996-ab-5-prozent.jpg
    https://kartenseite.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/nrw-gemeinden-grundschueler-2006-ab-5-prozent.jpg
    https://kartenseite.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/nrw-gemeinden-grundschueler-2011-ab-15-prozent.jpg

    That’s a useful and alarming map.

    Our children have been learning German from a very young age. We used to talk about encouraging our children to do a year abroad in Germany during high school. Not any more.

    The way things are going in Germany, we’re not so sure about even vacationing there 10 years from now, let alone entrusting our children to the sick suicidal bastards for a year.

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  • @Anon
    "Concerned about national survival, concurrent Quebec nationalists viewed urbanization – or at least, sudden and large scale urbanization – and other aspects of modernization as threats to the province’s unique culture and society (Hamilton, 1995). To cocoon Quebecers from the outside world, liberal ideologies were discouraged. In this context, because it would distract women from their maternal role and reduce the birth rate, feminism was interpreted as a threat to national survival."

    So, autistic white sharia ideas have already been tried and failed hard.

    It actually worked pretty well in terms of fertility, but perhaps a sideproduct of it was depressed income and education which led eventually to the Quiet Revolution. I might write an essay on that in a few weeks, as it something that I’ve become kinda interested in and it hasn’t been written about much. The
    “oppressive, Catholic” Quebec had TFR of 3.8 in 1960, though, so its not something to merely dismiss.

    Secular Quebec has TFR far below replacement, and as the analysis noted, even incentives offered including $8000 per child after the third, did nothing to resolve the situation. Extended families, rural living, early marrying age and low levels of “individuality” seemed needed for high TFR.

    Ancedotally, my wife noted that “perfect” marriages were not expected. People married young, hoped for the best, and were pressured to stay together. It created a lot of children, though also a lot of runaways, neglect and abuse. There was even a vague sense of truly R-selected upbringing with some of the older Quebecois mothers figuring that “its okay to ruin or lose a child or two, there’s others to make up for it. Its all up to God.”

    Completely different attitude. Nothing’s perfect in this world.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Anon
    Poster formerly known as Latvian woman here.

    Ok, this is too much. A Pole and a Swede are going to talk about how Ukraine should be "seperated" and what Ukraine should do with itself. You guys are funny.

    polskijoe - I'd advise you to refrain from talking about "seperating" Ukraine. Someone talking that way deserves the "l" word and I don't want to use it against any Polish national. And let Stepan rest in peace -- what they do in their country is their business.

    Swedish dude - re: "Bridge between Europe and Asia". I've been hearing about this mysterious "bridge" for 27 years now. Have you seen it? How does this bridge work in practice? Is it related to that other unicorn - the "Lisbon to Vladivostok" land? Oh, and above all, who is going to pay for this bridge? You're welcome to elaborate because I'm curious. Why should Ukraine or the Baltics serve as that "bridge"? Why not Sweden? Or Germany? Don't we all have internet these days? Go ahead, learn Russian and "bridge" all you want.
    But Ukraine will do what they must.

    AK: Why don't you comment as Latvian women instead of informing us you used to be Latvian women in every new comment? Seems simpler to me.

    Swedish dude – re: “Bridge between Europe and Asia”. I’ve been hearing about this mysterious “bridge” for 27 years now. Have you seen it? How does this bridge work in practice? Is it related to that other unicorn – the “Lisbon to Vladivostok” land? Oh, and above all, who is going to pay for this bridge? You’re welcome to elaborate because I’m curious. Why should Ukraine or the Baltics serve as that “bridge”? Why not Sweden? Or Germany? Don’t we all have internet these days? Go ahead, learn Russian and “bridge” all you want.
    But Ukraine will do what they must.

    I would think my argument is obvious enough. Some countries’ geography is such that they sit right inbetween two powerful civilizations. This geography often makes them naturally multicultural, but it also makes them natural trading partners and, sadly, natural battle grounds for their powerful neighbors. The prudent thing to do for such countries is to practice inclusivity internally, to avoid unrest and sectarianism, and to promote trade and neutrality externally, to turn their multicultural identity into an asset.

    Now, you may argue that Latvia went against these precepts in the past and is doing just fine. True, but (1) Latvia was monocultural and monolingual not so long ago and therefore had a national identity to build on, (2) it was in effect a city state, which meant that it could easily transfer its economy to EU-based corporations and get by without trading with Russia, and (3) however much Kremlin grumbled at the time, Latvia joining NATO and the EU wasn’t then seen as a mortal threat to Russia. I would also add that the true cost of Latvia’s hostility toward Russia would have to include the opportunity cost (the potential benefits forgone by a course of action), so its present fortunes cannot be viewed in isolation.

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  • @reiner Tor

    in no way did I ever think I was “the only one”
     
    You misunderstood, I remember you well; I meant you are not the only one to post in such a manner (there was for example an "Anon from TN" recently), so my comment wasn't really meant to you, but to all posters regularly posting here without a handle.

    I now understand why you need to do that. (Maybe Ron could accept it if you explained to him..? Anyway, if you don't post too often, I agree it's not so important.)

    OT: Reiner, did you see the article in today’s The American Conservative about the urban/rural cultural divide in Hungary, including a discussion of several of the novels of Magda Szabó? It’s by an expat living in Eger and seems quite plausible to me, but I would be interested in your reaction.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hungarys-acela-corridor/

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  • @reiner Tor

    in no way did I ever think I was “the only one”
     
    You misunderstood, I remember you well; I meant you are not the only one to post in such a manner (there was for example an "Anon from TN" recently), so my comment wasn't really meant to you, but to all posters regularly posting here without a handle.

    I now understand why you need to do that. (Maybe Ron could accept it if you explained to him..? Anyway, if you don't post too often, I agree it's not so important.)

    OT: Reiner, did you see the article in today’s The American Conservative about the urban/rural cultural divide in Hungary, including a discussion of several of the novels of Magda Szabó? It’s by an expat living in Eger and seems quite plausible to me, but I would be interested in your reaction.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hungarys-acela-corridor/

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Roger Cliftonville Acton
    Some statistics on England/Wales Births for your delectation (i have used 2011 as that is the census year) Annual statistics are available on Births and it seems that the white British share of Births decreases by ~1% per year, total white falls by ~0.5% per year.

    Statistics are for the race of child, NOT race of mother, as US statistics pertain to.
    2011 Total Births 719,624
    White births: 77.0%
    White British births: 68.3%

    In the Reproductive age cohort (16-39), as per the 2011 census, 81.3% of women were white, 72.5% white British. So births of white babies lag the number of potential white mothers by about 4%... I guess a mix of miscegenation and lower birth rates.

    Interestingly Wales (96% white) and England (85% white) had virtually the same TFRs (1.93 in England, 1.90 in Wales) compared to Scotland (96% white - 1.73) and Ulster (98% white - 2.06) Scotland, until the mid 1970s, had similar TFRs to England/Wales, then diverged. Not sure why.

    I must say, some of the "Births by Ethnicity" dataset in England/Wales statistics surprise me. Essentially, all the growth in the relative share of Births since 2005 has been in the White, other category, or the "Other" (ie any non-white that isnt south asian or full blooded black), with africans and south asian births stabilizing since 2005/6. I see some evidence of this. Over the last 3/4 years Turks have begun to penetrate everywhere. Very few Turks in Britain until a couple of years back. Now they seem to run about 90% of Barbershops.

    2011 TFR by local Authority area ('11 census % white/% white British female population age 16-40)
    Arranged by TFR. Of the top 5, Barking/Dagenham is heavily african (mostly christian AFAIK) and noted for having the fastest demographic change of anywhere in the UK - was 94% white in 1991, Forest Heath is heavily American having 2 USAF bases, Wellingborough has many Indians and Carribeans and Latterly East Europeans, Peterborough is heavily Eastern European and Pakistani, Blackburn is heavily Pakistani. One of the interesting factoids is that Polish TFR is estimated around 2.2 in the UK, but only around 1.3 in Poland. Of the bottom 5, 4 are in inner London, and as such the area contains few families but a lot of career orientated 20 somethings of all races, and 1 is a university city (



    Local Authority...% white...% white British...TFR 2011
    Barking and Dagenham … 52.4 … 39.8 … 2.45
    Forest Heath … 88.9 … 67.1 … 2.32
    Wellingborough … 85.1 … 74.7 … 2.31
    Peterborough … 79.9 … 62.5 … 2.30
    Blackburn with Darwen … 60.9 … 57.6 … 2.29
    Slough … 42.9 … 27.0 … 2.28
    Sandwell … 63.0 … 57.3 … 2.27
    Hyndburn … 82.7 … 79.7 … 2.26
    Bradford … 59.4 … 54.6 … 2.25
    North Devon … 96.9 … 93.1 … 2.24
    Denbighshire … 95.9 … 93.4 … 2.23
    Thanet … 93.8 … 86.3 … 2.23
    Elmbridge … 87.4 … 72.4 … 2.23
    Corby … 94.5 … 78.7 … 2.22
    Stoke-on-Trent … 85.3 … 82.0 … 2.22
    Pendle … 72.1 … 68.5 … 2.21
    Tendring … 96.4 … 93.4 … 2.20
    Torbay … 96.2 … 91.4 … 2.20
    Harlow … 86.2 … 78.4 … 2.20
    Oldham … 69.2 … 67.1 … 2.20
    Newham … 30.1 … 12.3 … 2.20
    Luton … 49.1 … 35.7 … 2.19
    Boston … 95.7 … 70.6 … 2.17
    Telford and Wrekin … 90.9 … 85.8 … 2.17
    East Staffordshire … 86.5 … 78.9 … 2.17
    Bury … 85.8 … 81.2 … 2.17
    West Berkshire … 92.5 … 85.2 … 2.16
    Walsall … 72.5 … 69.8 … 2.16
    Mid Devon … 98.0 … 93.1 … 2.15
    South Oxfordshire … 94.3 … 85.7 … 2.15
    Gloucester … 87.3 … 80.2 … 2.15
    Redcar and Cleveland … 98.2 … 96.8 … 2.14
    Hastings … 92.1 … 85.5 … 2.14
    Wolverhampton … 61.9 … 56.8 … 2.14
    Waltham Forest … 50.8 … 26.6 … 2.14
    Bassetlaw … 96.7 … 91.7 … 2.13
    North Somerset … 96.0 … 90.4 … 2.13
    West Oxfordshire … 95.4 … 87.9 … 2.13
    East Cambridgeshire … 94.8 … 83.1 … 2.13
    Vale of White Horse … 92.0 … 83.7 … 2.13
    Bolton … 77.0 … 73.8 … 2.13
    Milton Keynes … 76.2 … 67.2 … 2.13
    Rochdale … 75.8 … 72.3 … 2.13
    Conwy … 96.4 … 92.8 … 2.12
    Sevenoaks … 93.9 … 86.5 … 2.12
    Gravesham … 78.9 … 70.4 … 2.12
    Torridge … 98.0 … 95.6 … 2.11
    Barnsley … 97.1 … 94.2 … 2.11
    South Somerset … 96.9 … 91.2 … 2.11
    Waveney … 96.8 … 93.7 … 2.11
    Mansfield … 96.7 … 90.0 … 2.11
    Breckland … 96.1 … 85.1 … 2.11
    Wiltshire … 94.6 … 89.2 … 2.11
    Central Bedfordshire … 91.8 … 86.0 … 2.11
    Basingstoke and Deane … 89.8 … 81.7 … 2.11
    Dartford … 85.1 … 77.9 … 2.11
    Bridgend … 97.2 … 94.6 … 2.10
    Tameside … 88.2 … 85.2 … 2.10
    Broxbourne … 88.1 … 75.9 … 2.10
    Kirklees … 73.1 … 69.6 … 2.10
    Greenwich … 58.1 … 43.6 … 2.10
    Ryedale … 98.0 … 93.6 … 2.09
    South Hams … 97.5 … 92.9 … 2.09
    Fenland … 96.5 … 84.1 … 2.09
    Swale … 96.0 … 90.0 … 2.09
    Test Valley … 93.7 … 88.2 … 2.09
    Kettering … 92.2 … 85.1 … 2.09
    Epping Forest … 87.1 … 78.9 … 2.09
    Aylesbury Vale … 85.3 … 78.6 … 2.09
    Middlesbrough … 85.3 … 82.4 … 2.09
    Thurrock … 83.2 … 75.4 … 2.09
    Burnley … 83.1 … 81.1 … 2.09
    Birmingham … 52.3 … 47.0 … 2.09
    Calderdale … 85.0 … 81.3 … 2.08
    Stevenage … 84.8 … 78.3 … 2.08
    Bexley … 76.9 … 70.4 … 2.08
    Sedgemoor … 97.6 … 91.8 … 2.07
    East Lindsey … 97.4 … 94.0 … 2.07
    Hartlepool … 96.8 … 95.3 … 2.07
    Rossendale … 91.5 … 89.6 … 2.07
    Ashford … 91.0 … 84.3 … 2.07
    Cherwell … 89.6 … 79.9 … 2.07
    Croydon … 49.9 … 39.1 … 2.07
    Ashfield … 97.1 … 94.2 … 2.06
    Daventry … 95.7 … 90.0 … 2.06
    Nuneaton and Bedworth … 88.3 … 84.7 … 2.06
    Rugby … 88.2 … 77.0 … 2.06
    Reigate and Banstead … 87.1 … 78.3 … 2.06
    North Hertfordshire … 86.3 … 79.3 … 2.06
    Northampton … 81.4 … 69.7 … 2.06
    Crawley … 77.0 … 64.1 … 2.06
    Derby … 76.8 … 69.8 … 2.06
    Hillingdon … 52.9 … 41.3 … 2.06
    Redbridge … 36.3 … 24.6 … 2.06
    West Lindsey … 97.2 … 94.8 … 2.05
    Mendip … 96.8 … 90.8 … 2.05
    North East Lincolnshire … 96.7 … 93.5 … 2.05
    Tewkesbury … 96.2 … 90.3 … 2.05
    Havant … 96.0 … 93.2 … 2.05
    Wrexham … 95.8 … 89.1 … 2.05
    Blackpool … 95.6 … 90.9 … 2.05
    Arun … 95.2 … 84.5 … 2.05
    The Vale of Glamorgan … 94.7 … 91.7 … 2.05
    Rother … 94.6 … 90.5 … 2.05
    Maidstone … 92.2 … 82.9 … 2.05
    Solihull … 84.7 … 81.2 … 2.05
    Woking … 77.5 … 65.1 … 2.05
    Hounslow … 48.6 … 29.4 … 2.05
    Cornwall … 97.3 … 93.4 … 2.04
    Knowsley … 97.0 … 95.7 … 2.04
    South Kesteven … 96.4 … 89.5 … 2.04
    Wirral … 96.2 … 93.9 … 2.04
    Chorley … 96.1 … 93.6 … 2.04
    Taunton Deane … 96.0 … 89.4 … 2.04
    Swindon … 87.4 … 79.9 … 2.04
    Rushmoor … 80.7 … 74.3 … 2.04
    Coventry … 68.3 … 59.2 … 2.04
    North Kesteven … 97.4 … 93.5 … 2.03
    Craven … 95.6 … 92.0 … 2.03
    Chesterfield … 95.2 … 93.0 … 2.03
    Poole … 93.5 … 86.4 … 2.03
    Richmondshire … 93.2 … 89.6 … 2.03
    Shepway … 91.6 … 86.0 … 2.03
    Basildon … 90.2 … 85.8 … 2.03
    St Albans … 84.5 … 73.6 … 2.03
    Watford … 67.5 … 53.0 … 2.03
    Copeland … 97.6 … 96.2 … 2.02
    North Dorset … 96.7 … 91.3 … 2.02
    Gosport … 95.3 … 92.2 … 2.02
    Wakefield … 93.6 … 88.8 … 2.02
    Redditch … 90.3 … 82.3 … 2.02
    Ipswich … 87.0 … 77.8 … 2.02
    Bromley … 80.1 … 69.5 … 2.02
    Wycombe … 74.9 … 66.7 … 2.02
    Bolsover … 97.3 … 94.5 … 2.01
    Melton … 97.0 … 92.3 … 2.01
    High Peak … 96.7 … 93.9 … 2.01
    South Northamptonshire … 95.4 … 91.0 … 2.01
    Great Yarmouth … 95.3 … 88.3 … 2.01
    Suffolk Coastal … 94.6 … 90.4 … 2.01
    Doncaster … 94.2 … 88.3 … 2.01
    East Hampshire … 94.1 … 88.1 … 2.01
    Tunbridge Wells … 92.6 … 83.4 … 2.01
    Southend-on-Sea … 89.3 … 82.7 … 2.01
    West Somerset … 97.6 … 90.8 … 2.00
    Powys … 97.5 … 93.3 … 2.00
    Mid Suffolk … 96.6 … 93.4 … 2.00
    Wigan … 96.5 … 94.0 … 2.00
    King`s Lynn and West Norfolk … 95.7 … 86.3 … 2.00
    St Edmundsbury … 94.9 … 86.6 … 2.00
    Hinckley and Bosworth … 94.7 … 91.8 … 2.00
    Huntingdonshire … 92.8 … 84.4 … 2.00
    South Cambridgeshire … 90.2 … 80.1 … 2.00
    Medway … 87.1 … 81.1 … 2.00
    Enfield … 56.3 … 32.1 … 2.00
    Forest of Dean … 97.8 … 94.9 … 1.99
    North Norfolk … 97.8 … 94.0 … 1.99
    Carlisle … 97.1 … 92.1 … 1.99
    Scarborough … 96.2 … 92.1 … 1.99
    Rhondda, Cynon, Taff … 96.2 … 94.6 … 1.99
    East Northamptonshire … 95.5 … 90.9 … 1.99
    Uttlesford … 94.8 … 87.5 … 1.99
    Darlington … 94.7 … 90.9 … 1.99
    East Hertfordshire … 93.8 … 84.7 … 1.99
    Dacorum … 87.9 … 80.8 … 1.99
    Newport … 86.9 … 82.4 … 1.99
    Spelthorne … 82.2 … 72.1 … 1.99
    Bedford … 75.4 … 63.4 … 1.99
    Sutton … 75.0 … 63.7 … 1.99
    Derbyshire Dales … 97.9 … 95.1 … 1.98
    Purbeck … 97.4 … 93.5 … 1.98
    Newark and Sherwood … 97.2 … 91.4 … 1.98
    Teignbridge … 97.0 … 93.5 … 1.98
    West Dorset … 96.0 … 92.3 … 1.98
    Braintree … 95.4 … 90.0 … 1.98
    Eastbourne … 91.2 … 80.6 … 1.98
    Worthing … 91.0 … 83.9 … 1.98
    Stockport … 89.4 … 85.8 … 1.98
    Bracknell Forest … 87.9 … 79.1 … 1.98
    Merton … 64.3 … 39.4 … 1.98
    Selby … 98.0 … 92.5 … 1.97
    St. Helens … 97.6 … 95.8 … 1.97
    South Ribble … 96.1 … 93.6 … 1.97
    Isle of Wight … 96.1 … 92.3 … 1.97
    South Derbyshire … 94.2 … 91.7 … 1.97
    Stockton-on-Tees … 92.5 … 90.8 … 1.97
    Kingston upon Hull, City of … 92.0 … 84.6 … 1.97
    Chiltern … 87.5 … 78.3 … 1.97
    Salford … 86.8 … 78.1 … 1.97
    Ealing … 48.6 … 23.4 … 1.97
    Torfaen … 97.3 … 96.0 … 1.96
    East Devon … 97.2 … 93.4 … 1.96
    Wyre Forest … 96.3 … 92.6 … 1.96
    South Norfolk … 96.2 … 92.4 … 1.96
    Cheshire East … 95.0 … 89.8 … 1.96
    Dover … 95.0 … 89.6 … 1.96
    Tonbridge and Malling … 94.7 … 89.2 … 1.96
    Chichester … 94.5 … 87.7 … 1.96
    Harrogate … 94.1 … 85.7 … 1.96
    Rotherham … 91.0 … 88.4 … 1.96
    Dudley … 86.3 … 84.2 … 1.96
    Wokingham … 84.0 … 76.7 … 1.96
    Epsom and Ewell … 82.2 … 71.3 … 1.96
    Trafford … 81.9 … 75.6 … 1.96
    Hertsmere … 81.1 … 67.7 … 1.96
    South Bucks … 77.7 … 68.1 … 1.96
    Weymouth and Portland … 96.9 … 93.0 … 1.95
    Tamworth … 96.8 … 93.3 … 1.95
    Merthyr Tydfil … 96.6 … 92.1 … 1.95
    Lewes … 94.5 … 88.5 … 1.95
    Adur … 93.7 … 88.8 … 1.95
    South Gloucestershire … 93.0 … 87.6 … 1.95
    Lewisham … 52.3 … 35.5 … 1.95
    Leicester … 48.6 … 41.2 … 1.95
    Flintshire … 98.0 … 93.8 … 1.94
    Halton … 97.5 … 95.8 … 1.94
    Hambleton … 97.5 … 93.9 … 1.94
    South Holland … 97.0 … 81.5 … 1.94
    Wychavon … 96.9 … 88.7 … 1.94
    North East Derbyshire … 96.6 … 94.8 … 1.94
    Malvern Hills … 94.4 … 89.9 … 1.94
    Eastleigh … 92.6 … 88.1 … 1.94
    Herefordshire, County of … 97.0 … 87.4 … 1.93
    Stroud … 96.9 … 92.3 … 1.93
    North Lincolnshire … 94.4 … 88.0 … 1.93
    Gwynedd … 93.7 … 90.3 … 1.93
    Tandridge … 91.0 … 84.0 … 1.93
    Allerdale … 98.5 … 95.8 … 1.92
    Carmarthenshire … 97.2 … 93.3 … 1.92
    Neath Port Talbot … 97.2 … 95.7 … 1.92
    Maldon … 96.9 … 93.6 … 1.92
    Wyre … 96.9 … 94.7 … 1.92
    Fylde … 96.3 … 92.2 … 1.92
    Wealden … 95.8 … 89.9 … 1.92
    Hart … 92.5 … 85.5 … 1.92
    Mole Valley … 91.9 … 83.2 … 1.92
    Surrey Heath … 86.1 … 78.0 … 1.92
    East Dorset … 97.1 … 93.8 … 1.91
    Pembrokeshire … 97.0 … 94.0 … 1.91
    Warrington … 94.7 … 90.0 … 1.91
    Waverley … 93.1 … 83.8 … 1.91
    Havering … 83.6 … 77.3 … 1.91
    Bristol, City of … 82.1 … 72.9 … 1.91
    Brent … 37.9 … 15.0 … 1.91
    North Warwickshire … 97.2 … 94.4 … 1.90
    Rochford … 96.6 … 94.7 … 1.90
    Cheshire West and Chester … 96.3 … 91.9 … 1.90
    Fareham … 95.3 … 92.1 … 1.90
    Blaby … 87.7 … 84.1 … 1.90
    Richmond upon Thames … 82.5 … 61.5 … 1.90
    Harrow … 35.7 … 20.4 … 1.90
    Babergh … 96.9 … 93.2 … 1.89
    North West Leicestershire … 96.7 … 93.0 … 1.89
    Erewash … 95.8 … 93.1 … 1.89
    New Forest … 95.7 … 91.2 … 1.89
    Stratford-on-Avon … 95.4 … 88.6 … 1.89
    Broxtowe … 89.5 … 83.6 … 1.89
    Three Rivers … 82.5 … 73.0 … 1.89
    Reading … 71.2 … 57.2 … 1.89
    Barnet … 60.6 … 35.5 … 1.89
    Amber Valley … 97.2 … 94.6 … 1.88
    Christchurch … 95.7 … 91.5 … 1.88
    Bromsgrove … 94.0 … 91.0 … 1.88
    Horsham … 93.6 … 87.1 … 1.88
    Runnymede … 82.2 … 69.4 … 1.88
    Windsor and Maidenhead … 81.3 … 68.2 … 1.88
    County Durham … 96.8 … 94.0 … 1.87
    Lichfield … 95.9 … 92.5 … 1.87
    North Tyneside … 95.3 … 92.8 … 1.87
    Mid Sussex … 92.5 … 85.0 … 1.87
    Caerphilly … 97.9 … 96.3 … 1.86
    East Riding of Yorkshire … 97.3 … 93.9 … 1.86
    Sefton … 96.7 … 92.9 … 1.86
    Broadland … 96.4 … 93.6 … 1.86
    Cannock Chase … 97.0 … 95.5 … 1.85
    Sunderland … 93.9 … 91.9 … 1.85
    Winchester … 92.8 … 86.3 … 1.85
    Chelmsford … 91.8 … 85.9 … 1.85
    Worcester … 91.3 … 84.1 … 1.85
    Preston … 76.7 … 70.5 … 1.85
    Oadby and Wigston … 65.9 … 62.7 … 1.85
    Staffordshire Moorlands … 98.0 … 96.2 … 1.84
    West Lancashire … 97.4 … 93.2 … 1.84
    Castle Point … 96.0 … 94.3 … 1.84
    South Tyneside … 94.7 … 93.5 … 1.84
    Plymouth … 94.6 … 89.6 … 1.84
    West Devon … 97.9 … 94.0 … 1.83
    Barrow-in-Furness … 97.6 … 95.9 … 1.83
    Gedling … 91.2 … 87.7 … 1.83
    Colchester … 87.0 … 78.8 … 1.83
    Southampton … 83.5 … 71.3 … 1.83
    Monmouthshire … 97.0 … 94.0 … 1.82
    Shropshire … 96.4 … 92.1 … 1.82
    Gateshead … 94.3 … 90.6 … 1.81
    Welwyn Hatfield … 76.1 … 65.2 … 1.81
    South Lakeland … 96.5 … 89.7 … 1.80
    Haringey … 62.6 … 30.8 … 1.80
    Blaenau Gwent … 98.2 … 96.1 … 1.79
    Rutland … 96.0 … 90.6 … 1.78
    Stafford … 92.7 … 88.9 … 1.78
    Lancaster … 91.8 … 85.2 … 1.78
    Swansea … 91.2 … 87.4 … 1.78
    Rushcliffe … 90.6 … 86.4 … 1.78
    Guildford … 84.6 … 72.3 … 1.78
    Nottingham … 68.7 … 60.7 … 1.78
    Northumberland … 97.8 … 96.1 … 1.77
    Leeds … 81.7 … 76.0 … 1.77
    Southwark … 55.1 … 35.3 … 1.77
    Cotswold … 96.3 … 90.5 … 1.76
    Brentwood … 90.9 … 84.1 … 1.76
    Kingston upon Thames … 70.3 … 53.5 … 1.75
    South Staffordshire … 93.9 … 92.6 … 1.74
    Harborough … 93.1 … 89.6 … 1.74
    Cardiff … 83.0 … 76.7 … 1.74
    Manchester … 65.8 … 57.0 … 1.74
    Hackney … 59.3 … 36.0 … 1.74
    Lincoln … 94.6 … 86.5 … 1.72
    Eden … 98.4 … 94.3 … 1.71
    Bath and North East Somerset … 90.9 … 83.5 … 1.71
    Newcastle-under-Lyme … 90.7 … 88.1 … 1.71
    Portsmouth … 84.9 … 77.8 … 1.71
    Sheffield … 79.2 … 74.8 … 1.71
    Cheltenham … 92.1 … 83.0 … 1.70
    Bournemouth … 89.2 … 75.1 … 1.70
    Charnwood … 82.9 … 78.6 … 1.70
    Norwich … 86.9 … 77.4 … 1.68
    Exeter … 89.4 … 81.7 … 1.67
    Warwick … 85.2 … 76.5 … 1.67
    Liverpool … 86.5 … 80.3 … 1.65
    Canterbury … 87.4 … 77.3 … 1.64
    Ribble Valley … 96.4 … 93.6 … 1.63
    Newcastle upon Tyne … 81.9 … 76.4 … 1.63
    Oxford … 75.9 … 56.9 … 1.63
    Ceredigion … 94.7 … 87.5 … 1.61
    Wandsworth … 74.8 … 50.2 … 1.60
    Tower Hamlets … 47.3 … 27.8 … 1.60
    Lambeth … 62.3 … 39.2 … 1.56
    York … 90.7 … 83.8 … 1.49
    Brighton and Hove … 86.0 … 72.4 … 1.49
    Kensington and Chelsea … 65.6 … 28.8 … 1.46
    Camden … 62.5 … 36.1 … 1.44
    Hammersmith and Fulham … 69.3 … 40.2 … 1.43
    Westminster … 59.2 … 26.0 … 1.43
    Islington … 68.5 … 43.6 … 1.42
    Cambridge … 78.9 … 56.0 … 1.37

    Oxford … 75.9 … 56.9 … 1.63
    Kensington and Chelsea … 65.6 … 28.8 … 1.46
    Westminster … 59.2 … 26.0 … 1.43
    Cambridge … 78.9 … 56.0 … 1.37

    It seems low total fertility rate correlated with status/intelligence/education levels in UK. You have the most wealthy area (Kensington and Chelsea), the most politically powerful area (Westminster), and the two most educated areas (Oxford/Cambridge) – within the bottom 13.

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  • @neutral
    France is the same green as Turkey and North Africa on that map, probably because the people having children in France are from those same lands. The same for Britain, there is no doubt in me that it is greenish because of immigrant and miscegenation births. Poland is shocking, I did not know they had such a low rate, they really need to start doing real conservative stuff like having babies, if their current government is supposed to be conservative what have they been doing about this?

    Some statistics on England/Wales Births for your delectation (i have used 2011 as that is the census year) Annual statistics are available on Births and it seems that the white British share of Births decreases by ~1% per year, total white falls by ~0.5% per year.

    Statistics are for the race of child, NOT race of mother, as US statistics pertain to.
    2011 Total Births 719,624
    White births: 77.0%
    White British births: 68.3%

    In the Reproductive age cohort (16-39), as per the 2011 census, 81.3% of women were white, 72.5% white British. So births of white babies lag the number of potential white mothers by about 4%… I guess a mix of miscegenation and lower birth rates.

    Interestingly Wales (96% white) and England (85% white) had virtually the same TFRs (1.93 in England, 1.90 in Wales) compared to Scotland (96% white – 1.73) and Ulster (98% white – 2.06) Scotland, until the mid 1970s, had similar TFRs to England/Wales, then diverged. Not sure why.

    I must say, some of the “Births by Ethnicity” dataset in England/Wales statistics surprise me. Essentially, all the growth in the relative share of Births since 2005 has been in the White, other category, or the “Other” (ie any non-white that isnt south asian or full blooded black), with africans and south asian births stabilizing since 2005/6. I see some evidence of this. Over the last 3/4 years Turks have begun to penetrate everywhere. Very few Turks in Britain until a couple of years back. Now they seem to run about 90% of Barbershops.

    2011 TFR by local Authority area (’11 census % white/% white British female population age 16-40)
    Arranged by TFR. Of the top 5, Barking/Dagenham is heavily african (mostly christian AFAIK) and noted for having the fastest demographic change of anywhere in the UK – was 94% white in 1991, Forest Heath is heavily American having 2 USAF bases, Wellingborough has many Indians and Carribeans and Latterly East Europeans, Peterborough is heavily Eastern European and Pakistani, Blackburn is heavily Pakistani. One of the interesting factoids is that Polish TFR is estimated around 2.2 in the UK, but only around 1.3 in Poland. Of the bottom 5, 4 are in inner London, and as such the area contains few families but a lot of career orientated 20 somethings of all races, and 1 is a university city (

    [MORE]

    Local Authority…% white…% white British…TFR 2011
    Barking and Dagenham … 52.4 … 39.8 … 2.45
    Forest Heath … 88.9 … 67.1 … 2.32
    Wellingborough … 85.1 … 74.7 … 2.31
    Peterborough … 79.9 … 62.5 … 2.30
    Blackburn with Darwen … 60.9 … 57.6 … 2.29
    Slough … 42.9 … 27.0 … 2.28
    Sandwell … 63.0 … 57.3 … 2.27
    Hyndburn … 82.7 … 79.7 … 2.26
    Bradford … 59.4 … 54.6 … 2.25
    North Devon … 96.9 … 93.1 … 2.24
    Denbighshire … 95.9 … 93.4 … 2.23
    Thanet … 93.8 … 86.3 … 2.23
    Elmbridge … 87.4 … 72.4 … 2.23
    Corby … 94.5 … 78.7 … 2.22
    Stoke-on-Trent … 85.3 … 82.0 … 2.22
    Pendle … 72.1 … 68.5 … 2.21
    Tendring … 96.4 … 93.4 … 2.20
    Torbay … 96.2 … 91.4 … 2.20
    Harlow … 86.2 … 78.4 … 2.20
    Oldham … 69.2 … 67.1 … 2.20
    Newham … 30.1 … 12.3 … 2.20
    Luton … 49.1 … 35.7 … 2.19
    Boston … 95.7 … 70.6 … 2.17
    Telford and Wrekin … 90.9 … 85.8 … 2.17
    East Staffordshire … 86.5 … 78.9 … 2.17
    Bury … 85.8 … 81.2 … 2.17
    West Berkshire … 92.5 … 85.2 … 2.16
    Walsall … 72.5 … 69.8 … 2.16
    Mid Devon … 98.0 … 93.1 … 2.15
    South Oxfordshire … 94.3 … 85.7 … 2.15
    Gloucester … 87.3 … 80.2 … 2.15
    Redcar and Cleveland … 98.2 … 96.8 … 2.14
    Hastings … 92.1 … 85.5 … 2.14
    Wolverhampton … 61.9 … 56.8 … 2.14
    Waltham Forest … 50.8 … 26.6 … 2.14
    Bassetlaw … 96.7 … 91.7 … 2.13
    North Somerset … 96.0 … 90.4 … 2.13
    West Oxfordshire … 95.4 … 87.9 … 2.13
    East Cambridgeshire … 94.8 … 83.1 … 2.13
    Vale of White Horse … 92.0 … 83.7 … 2.13
    Bolton … 77.0 … 73.8 … 2.13
    Milton Keynes … 76.2 … 67.2 … 2.13
    Rochdale … 75.8 … 72.3 … 2.13
    Conwy … 96.4 … 92.8 … 2.12
    Sevenoaks … 93.9 … 86.5 … 2.12
    Gravesham … 78.9 … 70.4 … 2.12
    Torridge … 98.0 … 95.6 … 2.11
    Barnsley … 97.1 … 94.2 … 2.11
    South Somerset … 96.9 … 91.2 … 2.11
    Waveney … 96.8 … 93.7 … 2.11
    Mansfield … 96.7 … 90.0 … 2.11
    Breckland … 96.1 … 85.1 … 2.11
    Wiltshire … 94.6 … 89.2 … 2.11
    Central Bedfordshire … 91.8 … 86.0 … 2.11
    Basingstoke and Deane … 89.8 … 81.7 … 2.11
    Dartford … 85.1 … 77.9 … 2.11
    Bridgend … 97.2 … 94.6 … 2.10
    Tameside … 88.2 … 85.2 … 2.10
    Broxbourne … 88.1 … 75.9 … 2.10
    Kirklees … 73.1 … 69.6 … 2.10
    Greenwich … 58.1 … 43.6 … 2.10
    Ryedale … 98.0 … 93.6 … 2.09
    South Hams … 97.5 … 92.9 … 2.09
    Fenland … 96.5 … 84.1 … 2.09
    Swale … 96.0 … 90.0 … 2.09
    Test Valley … 93.7 … 88.2 … 2.09
    Kettering … 92.2 … 85.1 … 2.09
    Epping Forest … 87.1 … 78.9 … 2.09
    Aylesbury Vale … 85.3 … 78.6 … 2.09
    Middlesbrough … 85.3 … 82.4 … 2.09
    Thurrock … 83.2 … 75.4 … 2.09
    Burnley … 83.1 … 81.1 … 2.09
    Birmingham … 52.3 … 47.0 … 2.09
    Calderdale … 85.0 … 81.3 … 2.08
    Stevenage … 84.8 … 78.3 … 2.08
    Bexley … 76.9 … 70.4 … 2.08
    Sedgemoor … 97.6 … 91.8 … 2.07
    East Lindsey … 97.4 … 94.0 … 2.07
    Hartlepool … 96.8 … 95.3 … 2.07
    Rossendale … 91.5 … 89.6 … 2.07
    Ashford … 91.0 … 84.3 … 2.07
    Cherwell … 89.6 … 79.9 … 2.07
    Croydon … 49.9 … 39.1 … 2.07
    Ashfield … 97.1 … 94.2 … 2.06
    Daventry … 95.7 … 90.0 … 2.06
    Nuneaton and Bedworth … 88.3 … 84.7 … 2.06
    Rugby … 88.2 … 77.0 … 2.06
    Reigate and Banstead … 87.1 … 78.3 … 2.06
    North Hertfordshire … 86.3 … 79.3 … 2.06
    Northampton … 81.4 … 69.7 … 2.06
    Crawley … 77.0 … 64.1 … 2.06
    Derby … 76.8 … 69.8 … 2.06
    Hillingdon … 52.9 … 41.3 … 2.06
    Redbridge … 36.3 … 24.6 … 2.06
    West Lindsey … 97.2 … 94.8 … 2.05
    Mendip … 96.8 … 90.8 … 2.05
    North East Lincolnshire … 96.7 … 93.5 … 2.05
    Tewkesbury … 96.2 … 90.3 … 2.05
    Havant … 96.0 … 93.2 … 2.05
    Wrexham … 95.8 … 89.1 … 2.05
    Blackpool … 95.6 … 90.9 … 2.05
    Arun … 95.2 … 84.5 … 2.05
    The Vale of Glamorgan … 94.7 … 91.7 … 2.05
    Rother … 94.6 … 90.5 … 2.05
    Maidstone … 92.2 … 82.9 … 2.05
    Solihull … 84.7 … 81.2 … 2.05
    Woking … 77.5 … 65.1 … 2.05
    Hounslow … 48.6 … 29.4 … 2.05
    Cornwall … 97.3 … 93.4 … 2.04
    Knowsley … 97.0 … 95.7 … 2.04
    South Kesteven … 96.4 … 89.5 … 2.04
    Wirral … 96.2 … 93.9 … 2.04
    Chorley … 96.1 … 93.6 … 2.04
    Taunton Deane … 96.0 … 89.4 … 2.04
    Swindon … 87.4 … 79.9 … 2.04
    Rushmoor … 80.7 … 74.3 … 2.04
    Coventry … 68.3 … 59.2 … 2.04
    North Kesteven … 97.4 … 93.5 … 2.03
    Craven … 95.6 … 92.0 … 2.03
    Chesterfield … 95.2 … 93.0 … 2.03
    Poole … 93.5 … 86.4 … 2.03
    Richmondshire … 93.2 … 89.6 … 2.03
    Shepway … 91.6 … 86.0 … 2.03
    Basildon … 90.2 … 85.8 … 2.03
    St Albans … 84.5 … 73.6 … 2.03
    Watford … 67.5 … 53.0 … 2.03
    Copeland … 97.6 … 96.2 … 2.02
    North Dorset … 96.7 … 91.3 … 2.02
    Gosport … 95.3 … 92.2 … 2.02
    Wakefield … 93.6 … 88.8 … 2.02
    Redditch … 90.3 … 82.3 … 2.02
    Ipswich … 87.0 … 77.8 … 2.02
    Bromley … 80.1 … 69.5 … 2.02
    Wycombe … 74.9 … 66.7 … 2.02
    Bolsover … 97.3 … 94.5 … 2.01
    Melton … 97.0 … 92.3 … 2.01
    High Peak … 96.7 … 93.9 … 2.01
    South Northamptonshire … 95.4 … 91.0 … 2.01
    Great Yarmouth … 95.3 … 88.3 … 2.01
    Suffolk Coastal … 94.6 … 90.4 … 2.01
    Doncaster … 94.2 … 88.3 … 2.01
    East Hampshire … 94.1 … 88.1 … 2.01
    Tunbridge Wells … 92.6 … 83.4 … 2.01
    Southend-on-Sea … 89.3 … 82.7 … 2.01
    West Somerset … 97.6 … 90.8 … 2.00
    Powys … 97.5 … 93.3 … 2.00
    Mid Suffolk … 96.6 … 93.4 … 2.00
    Wigan … 96.5 … 94.0 … 2.00
    King`s Lynn and West Norfolk … 95.7 … 86.3 … 2.00
    St Edmundsbury … 94.9 … 86.6 … 2.00
    Hinckley and Bosworth … 94.7 … 91.8 … 2.00
    Huntingdonshire … 92.8 … 84.4 … 2.00
    South Cambridgeshire … 90.2 … 80.1 … 2.00
    Medway … 87.1 … 81.1 … 2.00
    Enfield … 56.3 … 32.1 … 2.00
    Forest of Dean … 97.8 … 94.9 … 1.99
    North Norfolk … 97.8 … 94.0 … 1.99
    Carlisle … 97.1 … 92.1 … 1.99
    Scarborough … 96.2 … 92.1 … 1.99
    Rhondda, Cynon, Taff … 96.2 … 94.6 … 1.99
    East Northamptonshire … 95.5 … 90.9 … 1.99
    Uttlesford … 94.8 … 87.5 … 1.99
    Darlington … 94.7 … 90.9 … 1.99
    East Hertfordshire … 93.8 … 84.7 … 1.99
    Dacorum … 87.9 … 80.8 … 1.99
    Newport … 86.9 … 82.4 … 1.99
    Spelthorne … 82.2 … 72.1 … 1.99
    Bedford … 75.4 … 63.4 … 1.99
    Sutton … 75.0 … 63.7 … 1.99
    Derbyshire Dales … 97.9 … 95.1 … 1.98
    Purbeck … 97.4 … 93.5 … 1.98
    Newark and Sherwood … 97.2 … 91.4 … 1.98
    Teignbridge … 97.0 … 93.5 … 1.98
    West Dorset … 96.0 … 92.3 … 1.98
    Braintree … 95.4 … 90.0 … 1.98
    Eastbourne … 91.2 … 80.6 … 1.98
    Worthing … 91.0 … 83.9 … 1.98
    Stockport … 89.4 … 85.8 … 1.98
    Bracknell Forest … 87.9 … 79.1 … 1.98
    Merton … 64.3 … 39.4 … 1.98
    Selby … 98.0 … 92.5 … 1.97
    St. Helens … 97.6 … 95.8 … 1.97
    South Ribble … 96.1 … 93.6 … 1.97
    Isle of Wight … 96.1 … 92.3 … 1.97
    South Derbyshire … 94.2 … 91.7 … 1.97
    Stockton-on-Tees … 92.5 … 90.8 … 1.97
    Kingston upon Hull, City of … 92.0 … 84.6 … 1.97
    Chiltern … 87.5 … 78.3 … 1.97
    Salford … 86.8 … 78.1 … 1.97
    Ealing … 48.6 … 23.4 … 1.97
    Torfaen … 97.3 … 96.0 … 1.96
    East Devon … 97.2 … 93.4 … 1.96
    Wyre Forest … 96.3 … 92.6 … 1.96
    South Norfolk … 96.2 … 92.4 … 1.96
    Cheshire East … 95.0 … 89.8 … 1.96
    Dover … 95.0 … 89.6 … 1.96
    Tonbridge and Malling … 94.7 … 89.2 … 1.96
    Chichester … 94.5 … 87.7 … 1.96
    Harrogate … 94.1 … 85.7 … 1.96
    Rotherham … 91.0 … 88.4 … 1.96
    Dudley … 86.3 … 84.2 … 1.96
    Wokingham … 84.0 … 76.7 … 1.96
    Epsom and Ewell … 82.2 … 71.3 … 1.96
    Trafford … 81.9 … 75.6 … 1.96
    Hertsmere … 81.1 … 67.7 … 1.96
    South Bucks … 77.7 … 68.1 … 1.96
    Weymouth and Portland … 96.9 … 93.0 … 1.95
    Tamworth … 96.8 … 93.3 … 1.95
    Merthyr Tydfil … 96.6 … 92.1 … 1.95
    Lewes … 94.5 … 88.5 … 1.95
    Adur … 93.7 … 88.8 … 1.95
    South Gloucestershire … 93.0 … 87.6 … 1.95
    Lewisham … 52.3 … 35.5 … 1.95
    Leicester … 48.6 … 41.2 … 1.95
    Flintshire … 98.0 … 93.8 … 1.94
    Halton … 97.5 … 95.8 … 1.94
    Hambleton … 97.5 … 93.9 … 1.94
    South Holland … 97.0 … 81.5 … 1.94
    Wychavon … 96.9 … 88.7 … 1.94
    North East Derbyshire … 96.6 … 94.8 … 1.94
    Malvern Hills … 94.4 … 89.9 … 1.94
    Eastleigh … 92.6 … 88.1 … 1.94
    Herefordshire, County of … 97.0 … 87.4 … 1.93
    Stroud … 96.9 … 92.3 … 1.93
    North Lincolnshire … 94.4 … 88.0 … 1.93
    Gwynedd … 93.7 … 90.3 … 1.93
    Tandridge … 91.0 … 84.0 … 1.93
    Allerdale … 98.5 … 95.8 … 1.92
    Carmarthenshire … 97.2 … 93.3 … 1.92
    Neath Port Talbot … 97.2 … 95.7 … 1.92
    Maldon … 96.9 … 93.6 … 1.92
    Wyre … 96.9 … 94.7 … 1.92
    Fylde … 96.3 … 92.2 … 1.92
    Wealden … 95.8 … 89.9 … 1.92
    Hart … 92.5 … 85.5 … 1.92
    Mole Valley … 91.9 … 83.2 … 1.92
    Surrey Heath … 86.1 … 78.0 … 1.92
    East Dorset … 97.1 … 93.8 … 1.91
    Pembrokeshire … 97.0 … 94.0 … 1.91
    Warrington … 94.7 … 90.0 … 1.91
    Waverley … 93.1 … 83.8 … 1.91
    Havering … 83.6 … 77.3 … 1.91
    Bristol, City of … 82.1 … 72.9 … 1.91
    Brent … 37.9 … 15.0 … 1.91
    North Warwickshire … 97.2 … 94.4 … 1.90
    Rochford … 96.6 … 94.7 … 1.90
    Cheshire West and Chester … 96.3 … 91.9 … 1.90
    Fareham … 95.3 … 92.1 … 1.90
    Blaby … 87.7 … 84.1 … 1.90
    Richmond upon Thames … 82.5 … 61.5 … 1.90
    Harrow … 35.7 … 20.4 … 1.90
    Babergh … 96.9 … 93.2 … 1.89
    North West Leicestershire … 96.7 … 93.0 … 1.89
    Erewash … 95.8 … 93.1 … 1.89
    New Forest … 95.7 … 91.2 … 1.89
    Stratford-on-Avon … 95.4 … 88.6 … 1.89
    Broxtowe … 89.5 … 83.6 … 1.89
    Three Rivers … 82.5 … 73.0 … 1.89
    Reading … 71.2 … 57.2 … 1.89
    Barnet … 60.6 … 35.5 … 1.89
    Amber Valley … 97.2 … 94.6 … 1.88
    Christchurch … 95.7 … 91.5 … 1.88
    Bromsgrove … 94.0 … 91.0 … 1.88
    Horsham … 93.6 … 87.1 … 1.88
    Runnymede … 82.2 … 69.4 … 1.88
    Windsor and Maidenhead … 81.3 … 68.2 … 1.88
    County Durham … 96.8 … 94.0 … 1.87
    Lichfield … 95.9 … 92.5 … 1.87
    North Tyneside … 95.3 … 92.8 … 1.87
    Mid Sussex … 92.5 … 85.0 … 1.87
    Caerphilly … 97.9 … 96.3 … 1.86
    East Riding of Yorkshire … 97.3 … 93.9 … 1.86
    Sefton … 96.7 … 92.9 … 1.86
    Broadland … 96.4 … 93.6 … 1.86
    Cannock Chase … 97.0 … 95.5 … 1.85
    Sunderland … 93.9 … 91.9 … 1.85
    Winchester … 92.8 … 86.3 … 1.85
    Chelmsford … 91.8 … 85.9 … 1.85
    Worcester … 91.3 … 84.1 … 1.85
    Preston … 76.7 … 70.5 … 1.85
    Oadby and Wigston … 65.9 … 62.7 … 1.85
    Staffordshire Moorlands … 98.0 … 96.2 … 1.84
    West Lancashire … 97.4 … 93.2 … 1.84
    Castle Point … 96.0 … 94.3 … 1.84
    South Tyneside … 94.7 … 93.5 … 1.84
    Plymouth … 94.6 … 89.6 … 1.84
    West Devon … 97.9 … 94.0 … 1.83
    Barrow-in-Furness … 97.6 … 95.9 … 1.83
    Gedling … 91.2 … 87.7 … 1.83
    Colchester … 87.0 … 78.8 … 1.83
    Southampton … 83.5 … 71.3 … 1.83
    Monmouthshire … 97.0 … 94.0 … 1.82
    Shropshire … 96.4 … 92.1 … 1.82
    Gateshead … 94.3 … 90.6 … 1.81
    Welwyn Hatfield … 76.1 … 65.2 … 1.81
    South Lakeland … 96.5 … 89.7 … 1.80
    Haringey … 62.6 … 30.8 … 1.80
    Blaenau Gwent … 98.2 … 96.1 … 1.79
    Rutland … 96.0 … 90.6 … 1.78
    Stafford … 92.7 … 88.9 … 1.78
    Lancaster … 91.8 … 85.2 … 1.78
    Swansea … 91.2 … 87.4 … 1.78
    Rushcliffe … 90.6 … 86.4 … 1.78
    Guildford … 84.6 … 72.3 … 1.78
    Nottingham … 68.7 … 60.7 … 1.78
    Northumberland … 97.8 … 96.1 … 1.77
    Leeds … 81.7 … 76.0 … 1.77
    Southwark … 55.1 … 35.3 … 1.77
    Cotswold … 96.3 … 90.5 … 1.76
    Brentwood … 90.9 … 84.1 … 1.76
    Kingston upon Thames … 70.3 … 53.5 … 1.75
    South Staffordshire … 93.9 … 92.6 … 1.74
    Harborough … 93.1 … 89.6 … 1.74
    Cardiff … 83.0 … 76.7 … 1.74
    Manchester … 65.8 … 57.0 … 1.74
    Hackney … 59.3 … 36.0 … 1.74
    Lincoln … 94.6 … 86.5 … 1.72
    Eden … 98.4 … 94.3 … 1.71
    Bath and North East Somerset … 90.9 … 83.5 … 1.71
    Newcastle-under-Lyme … 90.7 … 88.1 … 1.71
    Portsmouth … 84.9 … 77.8 … 1.71
    Sheffield … 79.2 … 74.8 … 1.71
    Cheltenham … 92.1 … 83.0 … 1.70
    Bournemouth … 89.2 … 75.1 … 1.70
    Charnwood … 82.9 … 78.6 … 1.70
    Norwich … 86.9 … 77.4 … 1.68
    Exeter … 89.4 … 81.7 … 1.67
    Warwick … 85.2 … 76.5 … 1.67
    Liverpool … 86.5 … 80.3 … 1.65
    Canterbury … 87.4 … 77.3 … 1.64
    Ribble Valley … 96.4 … 93.6 … 1.63
    Newcastle upon Tyne … 81.9 … 76.4 … 1.63
    Oxford … 75.9 … 56.9 … 1.63
    Ceredigion … 94.7 … 87.5 … 1.61
    Wandsworth … 74.8 … 50.2 … 1.60
    Tower Hamlets … 47.3 … 27.8 … 1.60
    Lambeth … 62.3 … 39.2 … 1.56
    York … 90.7 … 83.8 … 1.49
    Brighton and Hove … 86.0 … 72.4 … 1.49
    Kensington and Chelsea … 65.6 … 28.8 … 1.46
    Camden … 62.5 … 36.1 … 1.44
    Hammersmith and Fulham … 69.3 … 40.2 … 1.43
    Westminster … 59.2 … 26.0 … 1.43
    Islington … 68.5 … 43.6 … 1.42
    Cambridge … 78.9 … 56.0 … 1.37

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Oxford … 75.9 … 56.9 … 1.63
    Kensington and Chelsea … 65.6 … 28.8 … 1.46
    Westminster … 59.2 … 26.0 … 1.43
    Cambridge … 78.9 … 56.0 … 1.37
     
    It seems low total fertility rate correlated with status/intelligence/education levels in UK. You have the most wealthy area (Kensington and Chelsea), the most politically powerful area (Westminster), and the two most educated areas (Oxford/Cambridge) - within the bottom 13.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I would not have been as anti-Russian as it is today, but it would still be firmly orientated towards the West; Russia would have likely been kicked out of Crimea, or in the final process of being so, after mass arrests and reprisal against the separatists there; pro-Russian parties would still be electorally non-viable (2010 was the unlikely confluence of a massive economic crisis coupled with the near complete discreditation of the Orange forces).

    Oh, and yes, Putin's approval ratings would have been well below 50% (humiliated in Ukraine; economy in recession anyway due to collapsed oil prices, and no way of blaming that on sanctions), and the Kremlin could well have been facing a color revolution scenario as of this time in the alternate history where Shoigu (who allegedly cautioned against Crimea) triumphed over Glazyev (who was the main hawk in 2014).

    Mostly agree. But:

    pro-Russian parties would still be electorally non-viable (2010 was the unlikely confluence of a massive economic crisis coupled with the near complete discreditation of the Orange forces).

    Non-viable in terms of securing the presidency, yes: the pro-Russian electorate was about 45% of the country (as you correctly note, 2010 was a “perfect storm” for them, a fluke), and losing the demographic struggle to the more-fertile Westerners in Ukraine. But they would have controlled nearly half the parliament which would have slowed down the process of integration with the West.

    Also, NATO would have basically zero chance of passing any referendum.

    So Ukraine would have been linked to the EU, but most likely not a part of NATO, and would have been friendly towards Russia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Aedib
    There were big plans for Crimea. I still remember just one day after the regime-replacement, Yats “our men” going to NATO headquarters “to discuss the Crimea issue” (their own words). Anyway, at that time-point, the Russia reconquering operation was going on. Putin should have thought “Since Ukraine is lost forever, let’s take our lands, our people and the Black Sea fleet base back”.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anon
    I apologize if I caused any inconvenience (in no way did I ever think I was "the only one"), I can't use my handle for technical reasons (there's another user under the same IP posting on a different section of the site and I don't have time to go look for a different IP to post from - I'm a busy mom).

    In any event, I don't intend to post much. Just wanted to say Hi to AP.

    in no way did I ever think I was “the only one”

    You misunderstood, I remember you well; I meant you are not the only one to post in such a manner (there was for example an “Anon from TN” recently), so my comment wasn’t really meant to you, but to all posters regularly posting here without a handle.

    I now understand why you need to do that. (Maybe Ron could accept it if you explained to him..? Anyway, if you don’t post too often, I agree it’s not so important.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @for-the-record
    OT: Reiner, did you see the article in today's The American Conservative about the urban/rural cultural divide in Hungary, including a discussion of several of the novels of Magda Szabó? It's by an expat living in Eger and seems quite plausible to me, but I would be interested in your reaction.


    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hungarys-acela-corridor/
    , @for-the-record
    OT: Reiner, did you see the article in today's The American Conservative about the urban/rural cultural divide in Hungary, including a discussion of several of the novels of Magda Szabó? It's by an expat living in Eger and seems quite plausible to me, but I would be interested in your reaction.


    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/hungarys-acela-corridor/
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    The PDF has pretty good application for this thread, btw, as it concerns extremely high natality rates of a Western European population and its subsequent crash. Excerpting another part relevant:

    Little doubt exists that Quebec’s fertility collapse since the ‘Quiet Revolution’ has, among other things, corresponded with declining marriage rates. Marriage decline can be largely credited to the younger generation’s perception that there are few gains to be realized through traditional matrimonial unions. While not completely eroded, this institution seems less central to the lives of many Quebecers. The decreasing desirability of marriage, particularly among theyoung, may be attributed to three factors: 1) rising individualism accompanied by changes in the value of children to parents; 2) changes in women’s roles and aspirations; and 3) rising economic insecurities.
     
    It seems apropos here to add a cheap shot at feminism now, but really, its so obvious that it is pointless.

    “Concerned about national survival, concurrent Quebec nationalists viewed urbanization – or at least, sudden and large scale urbanization – and other aspects of modernization as threats to the province’s unique culture and society (Hamilton, 1995). To cocoon Quebecers from the outside world, liberal ideologies were discouraged. In this context, because it would distract women from their maternal role and reduce the birth rate, feminism was interpreted as a threat to national survival.”

    So, autistic white sharia ideas have already been tried and failed hard.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    It actually worked pretty well in terms of fertility, but perhaps a sideproduct of it was depressed income and education which led eventually to the Quiet Revolution. I might write an essay on that in a few weeks, as it something that I've become kinda interested in and it hasn't been written about much. The
    "oppressive, Catholic" Quebec had TFR of 3.8 in 1960, though, so its not something to merely dismiss.

    Secular Quebec has TFR far below replacement, and as the analysis noted, even incentives offered including $8000 per child after the third, did nothing to resolve the situation. Extended families, rural living, early marrying age and low levels of "individuality" seemed needed for high TFR.

    Ancedotally, my wife noted that "perfect" marriages were not expected. People married young, hoped for the best, and were pressured to stay together. It created a lot of children, though also a lot of runaways, neglect and abuse. There was even a vague sense of truly R-selected upbringing with some of the older Quebecois mothers figuring that "its okay to ruin or lose a child or two, there's others to make up for it. Its all up to God."

    Completely different attitude. Nothing's perfect in this world.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • A comparison: https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-opioid-epidemic-in-america-killing-one-million-workers-the-triumph-of-capital/5627300
    “American youth are 70% more likely to die before adulthood than their counterparts in other rich countries. In 2016, death rates for millennials (ages 25-34) rose to 129/100,000, with 35/100,000 deaths due to narcotic overdose. The carnage surpasses the height of the US AIDS epidemic in the 1980’s. …
    The drop in life expectancy and rise in premature death in the US resembles the pattern seen in Russia during the first decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the rampant pillage by the US-backed mafia oligarchs under Boris Yeltsin.
    Official government studies estimate almost 700,000 deaths [due to narcotic addiction and/or overdose] since 1999… … at least 65,000 in 2016.
    The producer of the leading commercial ‘gateway’ into addiction, Oxy-Contin, is Purdue Pharmaceuticals. The company was founded and run entirely by the Sackler family under the leadership of the recently deceased Raymond Sackler and his brothers. … The Sacklers set up an aggressive large-scale sales force to convince physicians that their product was not addictive. They paid physician-researchers to publish fraudulent data on the safety of Oxy-Contin. … The totally preventable and predictable devastation eventually led to Purdue Pharmaceuticals being fined $634.5 million dollars in 2007 for fraudulently covering up the addiction and overdose potential of Oxy-Contin. The political influence of the Sackler family protected their members from any accusation of misconduct or criminal conspiracy. Their influence in elite political and judicial circles was unparalleled.”
    Our American cannibals, the Sacklers.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    For what it is worth, my wife grew up in a family with eight siblings. She said that she was raised by her sisters, so at some point, economies of scale happen. Evidently at one point, it was a common French Canadian thing to do to challenge Anglo control, a movement known as la revanche des berceaux: revenge of the cradles.

    http://www.canpopsoc.ca/CanPopSoc/assets/File/publications/journal/CSPv30n1p193.pdf


    As Henripin and Peron (1972) have noted, between
    1760 and 1960, despite losing approximately 800,000 people to emigration,
    French Canada’s population multiplied 80 times. In the same period, the
    world’s population increased only 4 times, while that of Europe grew just 5-fold.
    Moreover, Quebec’s exceptional reproductive rates caused concern in English
    Canada, for “if the French continued to reproduce at the current rate, they would
    eventually overrun the country”
     
    Its definitely environmental and cultural, because it really does seem that extreme fertility was related to a rural and mostly pre-modern setting, with her mother struggling through pregnancy after pregnancy, through miscarriages and stillbirths, and its not really like her husband's salary kept increasing(though high for the era). This isn't in the distant past: this was 1980.

    But this generation, now that they all live in the city, there isn't even one among all of her many daughters that have had more than two children.

    Interesting! Yes, older sisters, aunts, orphan girls taken into the house were all doing childcare in peasant households. Here’s one from Old Russia. Commenters recall their grandmothers working as nannies, one starting at age 8, and a great-grandmother at age 5:

    https://m.vk.com/photo-4367359_117819573

    And there’s a vintage photography collector Okinawa Soba who has a whole gallery of Japanese kids carrying their baby siblings on the back. Not that child labor was seen as good (everyone who had money hired adult servants), but it was a dire necessity to not leave mother alone with all the chores.

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    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
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  • @German_reader

    in our life we already have more opportunities and standard of living than our parents
     
    Well, you're from the former Soviet Union, so for you that's true, for me and many others in Western Europe things are definitely not better than for our parents' generation.

    Imagine in 2150
     
    We're not talking about some distant future, we're talking about 30-40 years from now, that is well within the probable lifetime of young people alive today. By current trends the native populations in much of Western Europe will become minorities at some time in the 2050s and 2060s. Major trouble and civil strife will in all probability happen well before that, as will the collapse of the pensions and welfare systems (the combination of the baby boomers going into retirement plus having to provide for unproductive, parasitical "refugees" will crush the native working population under an immense burden and will accelerate the demographic death spiral for the native population, with many who have the necessary financial means and skills probably fleeing to the US or Oceania, or maybe even China).

    This alleged ‘egoism’ attitude is reflected by many educated people – whether it is Epicurus, Montaigne, or even politically engaged people like Herzen.
     
    I shouldn't have accused you of egoism, sorry for that. I actually can to some degree understand your views (even if I disagree), your reasoning isn't implausible...but your conclusions do seem a bit extreme to me.

    We’re not talking about some distant future, we’re talking about 30-40 years from now, that is well within the probable lifetime of young people alive today. By current trends the native populations in much of Western Europe will become minorities at some time in the 2050s and 2060s. Major trouble and civil strife will in all probability happen well before that, as will the collapse of the pensions and welfare systems (the combination of the baby boomers going into retirement plus having to provide for unproductive, parasitical “refugees” will crush the native working population under an immense burden and will accelerate the demographic death spiral for the native population, with many who have the necessary financial means and skills probably fleeing to the US or Oceania, or maybe even China).

    This is very pessimistic. I do not have such pessimistic views of political future. But if I did – I would leave open the Montaigne point of view, where he ‘retreats to his tower’. Assuming you don’t have a tower, there will surely be places you would move to like Switzerland which will be still great in the 2050s, even if Germany starts to follow a suicidal path in the future decades.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Germany is already on a suicidal path, and moving along that path fairly quickly.

    Also, there is no reason to think that Switzerland will be fine in the 2050s, based on current demographic and cultural trends and immigration policies.

    Like Germans, Swiss people don't have children, period. World Bank and other sources put Swiss TFR at a meager 1.5 for the year 2016, compared to Germany at 1.4. The Swiss are aging and dying out, and the numbers are stark as for most of the rest of Europe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

    As of several years ago already, there were around 400,000 Muslims among Switzerland's population of about 8 million. If the Muslims living in Switzerland merely reproduce at a TFR of 2.1, enough to replace themselves, the Swiss population will be more Muslim with every passing year -- before even accounting for new Muslim immigration into the country. God help them.

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  • @Dmitry

    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world “will be peaceful and [continue to] progress”, even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people’s investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.
     
    Thanks.

    Yes you can frame it in terms of time discounting. But my point is not to say I have a high time discounting, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have a low one. And it's also not to say that I wholly discount anything beyond my death, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have posthumous preferences (even if at significantly discounted rates for posthumous times).

    It's stronger point that for preferences covering posthumous time, regardless of whether you have them or not (and it is natural human tendency to have them) - it is irrelevant whether they are fulfilled or not, and probably we cannot speak in meaningful way of their fulfillment.

    The issue of whether and why we have posthumous preferences, is matter for psychology, and will vary from person to person.

    But the notion that they can be fulfilled (and therefore be said that it is relevant whether they are fulfilled or not), requires transcendental perspective, that does not exist.

    This issue can be related to the discussion of death made by Epicurus.

    Epicurus' insight into death was: "Where there is death, I am not. And where I am, death is not. I do not care."

    Objection to Epicurus by Thomas Nagel (I quote from his book 'Mortal Questions'):

    "The first type of objection is expressed in general form
    by the common remark that what you don't know can't hurt you. It
    means that even if a man is betrayed by his friends, ridiculed behind
    his back, and despised by people who treat him politely to his
    face, none of it can be counted as a misfortune for him so long as he
    does not suffer as a result. It means that a man is not injured if his
    wishes are ignored by the executor of his will, or if, after his death,
    the belief becomes current that all the literary works on which his
    fame rests were really written by his brother, who died in Mexico
    at the age of twenty-eight."


    ---


    This objection of Nagel, can make sense for me, but only to the extent that if you are betrayed behind your back by your friends, there is potentiality that you can discover it. So there is an unfortunate potentiality contained in this situation (that you could discover that your friends are betraying you, but until you do everything is going well). In the case of death - let's say for Alexander III, until we find that he was in possession of crystal ball for seeing into future, there is no indication that there was potentiality that he could discover his family would be murdered in the revolution. To the extent that he did not know, he was therefore completely unaffected.

    ----

    My clarifications -

    1. I am not saying that it makes no difference how you think that things will be after you die. If we believe that the world will be destroyed in a nuclear apocalypse in February 2100, this would very much 'ruin' the old age period of our lives - while we are still living. Our beliefs about posthumous future, can certainly impact us - while we are living.

    But for actual realization of our posthumous preferences - this requires a transcendental perspective, which there is no evidence that we can ever access.

    2. I am not saying this in 'solipsistic' way (other people don't matter). The point is again simple insight of Epicurus. To understand the reality - that death is non-existence. A total nothingness, with no transcendental perspective, despite the resistance that people naturally have to this (saying they accept it, but not really understanding it and still imagining that they can be affected by posthumous events).

    Really it is more kind of humility, than solipsism. And this is what I mean by 'I don't give a shit what happens after I die'. Well it's not completely true (but in reality, nothing that actually happens after that touches you, even as you imagine as if it does).

    Really it is more kind of humility, than solipsism. And this is what I mean by ‘I don’t give a shit what happens after I die’. Well it’s not completely true (but in reality, nothing that actually happens after that touches you, even as you imagine as if it does).

    And there is resistance to this view, in terms of viewing it as solipsistic. Someone cares that their children and friends will have a happy life after you are dead. Yes – but this can exist, only so long as the person themselves is alive. Person exists only in terms of their first-personal consciousness – and once this is gone, they are nothing. They can no longer have preferences and dreams, which are realized or not. You might have a preference for something to happen in a time in which you don’t exist, but this preference itself does not and will never exist in that time, to be fulfilled or not fulfilled. There is absolute ‘cut off’.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view - It's a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world "will be peaceful and [continue to] progress", even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people's investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world “will be peaceful and [continue to] progress”, even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people’s investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

    Thanks.

    Yes you can frame it in terms of time discounting. But my point is not to say I have a high time discounting, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have a low one. And it’s also not to say that I wholly discount anything beyond my death, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have posthumous preferences (even if at significantly discounted rates for posthumous times).

    It’s stronger point that for preferences covering posthumous time, regardless of whether you have them or not (and it is natural human tendency to have them) – it is irrelevant whether they are fulfilled or not, and probably we cannot speak in meaningful way of their fulfillment.

    The issue of whether and why we have posthumous preferences, is matter for psychology, and will vary from person to person.

    But the notion that they can be fulfilled (and therefore be said that it is relevant whether they are fulfilled or not), requires transcendental perspective, that does not exist.

    This issue can be related to the discussion of death made by Epicurus.

    Epicurus’ insight into death was: “Where there is death, I am not. And where I am, death is not. I do not care.”

    Objection to Epicurus by Thomas Nagel (I quote from his book ‘Mortal Questions’):

    “The first type of objection is expressed in general form
    by the common remark that what you don’t know can’t hurt you. It
    means that even if a man is betrayed by his friends, ridiculed behind
    his back, and despised by people who treat him politely to his
    face, none of it can be counted as a misfortune for him so long as he
    does not suffer as a result. It means that a man is not injured if his
    wishes are ignored by the executor of his will, or if, after his death,
    the belief becomes current that all the literary works on which his
    fame rests were really written by his brother, who died in Mexico
    at the age of twenty-eight.”

    This objection of Nagel, can make sense for me, but only to the extent that if you are betrayed behind your back by your friends, there is potentiality that you can discover it. So there is an unfortunate potentiality contained in this situation (that you could discover that your friends are betraying you, but until you do everything is going well). In the case of death – let’s say for Alexander III, until we find that he was in possession of crystal ball for seeing into future, there is no indication that there was potentiality that he could discover his family would be murdered in the revolution. To the extent that he did not know, he was therefore completely unaffected.

    —-

    My clarifications –

    1. I am not saying that it makes no difference how you think that things will be after you die. If we believe that the world will be destroyed in a nuclear apocalypse in February 2100, this would very much ‘ruin’ the old age period of our lives – while we are still living. Our beliefs about posthumous future, can certainly impact us – while we are living.

    But for actual realization of our posthumous preferences – this requires a transcendental perspective, which there is no evidence that we can ever access.

    2. I am not saying this in ‘solipsistic’ way (other people don’t matter). The point is again simple insight of Epicurus. To understand the reality – that death is non-existence. A total nothingness, with no transcendental perspective, despite the resistance that people naturally have to this (saying they accept it, but not really understanding it and still imagining that they can be affected by posthumous events).

    Really it is more kind of humility, than solipsism. And this is what I mean by ‘I don’t give a shit what happens after I die’. Well it’s not completely true (but in reality, nothing that actually happens after that touches you, even as you imagine as if it does).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Really it is more kind of humility, than solipsism. And this is what I mean by ‘I don’t give a shit what happens after I die’. Well it’s not completely true (but in reality, nothing that actually happens after that touches you, even as you imagine as if it does).
     
    And there is resistance to this view, in terms of viewing it as solipsistic. Someone cares that their children and friends will have a happy life after you are dead. Yes - but this can exist, only so long as the person themselves is alive. Person exists only in terms of their first-personal consciousness - and once this is gone, they are nothing. They can no longer have preferences and dreams, which are realized or not. You might have a preference for something to happen in a time in which you don't exist, but this preference itself does not and will never exist in that time, to be fulfilled or not fulfilled. There is absolute 'cut off'.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Avery
    {... from a materialist and individualist standpoint.}

    Right.

    But evolution or God (depending on your belief system) solved that 'problem' long time ago. You (generic you) choose to live the good life, materialistic life, individual life - and have no children. Over time your kind of genes get eliminated.

    If you have children, grandchildren - you care and worry about the future.
    You do whatever you can humanly possible, while you are alive, to make sure your genes are perpetuated through your descendants.

    This is playing out in West Europe even as we watch: the materialistic, individualistic Europeans are eliminating themselves, and being replaced.....by those who have lots of children.

    Hey Avery,

    Yeah and I feel bad for them. They could turn it around by simply changing their attitude to life – but it’s their life, their future…

    It is interesting that in Arabic, someone who is “faithless” is called a mulHid and it derives from the tri-letter root (لحد) which means “to dig a grave”.

    Peace.

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  • @Aedib
    Do you have info about Belarus demographics? Since Belarus managed quite well the 90s black years, I bet Belarus is the best of the three Russias in terms of demographic trends.

    You’re intuition is largely correct. Belarus has better life expectancy than Russia by around 2 years, and has pretty much tracked Russian TFR. Adjust Russia down by ~0.1 children per woman, and Belarus would have done at least equally well; but compare Belarus with Central Russian regions, which have a lower TFR than Russians in the Urals and Siberia, and they do very well indeed. However, because the Belorussian population is older on average, and considerably numbers of Belorussians emigrated to Russia, its population has fallen more in relative terms.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Zorro
    If Russia just let 2014 play out Ukrainian would have again been largely pro-Russian by 2018. Ukraine wouldn't have gotten any benefits from the EU no foreign aid just a cheap association agreement and nothing would have happened it would have taken 4 years for them to get sick of the new government and get rid of it just like in the last Orange Revolution

    I would not have been as anti-Russian as it is today, but it would still be firmly orientated towards the West; Russia would have likely been kicked out of Crimea, or in the final process of being so, after mass arrests and reprisal against the separatists there; pro-Russian parties would still be electorally non-viable (2010 was the unlikely confluence of a massive economic crisis coupled with the near complete discreditation of the Orange forces).

    Oh, and yes, Putin’s approval ratings would have been well below 50% (humiliated in Ukraine; economy in recession anyway due to collapsed oil prices, and no way of blaming that on sanctions), and the Kremlin could well have been facing a color revolution scenario as of this time in the alternate history where Shoigu (who allegedly cautioned against Crimea) triumphed over Glazyev (who was the main hawk in 2014).

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    • Replies: @AP
    Mostly agree. But:

    pro-Russian parties would still be electorally non-viable (2010 was the unlikely confluence of a massive economic crisis coupled with the near complete discreditation of the Orange forces).
     
    Non-viable in terms of securing the presidency, yes: the pro-Russian electorate was about 45% of the country (as you correctly note, 2010 was a "perfect storm" for them, a fluke), and losing the demographic struggle to the more-fertile Westerners in Ukraine. But they would have controlled nearly half the parliament which would have slowed down the process of integration with the West.

    Also, NATO would have basically zero chance of passing any referendum.

    So Ukraine would have been linked to the EU, but most likely not a part of NATO, and would have been friendly towards Russia.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • [A few days before the Berlin election, Frauke Petry, head of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) said Chancellor Angela Merkel is a worse leader because she doesn't have children.
    “I have four children, Merkel has none,” said Petry in an interview with stern.]

    [“Kids help you see beyond your own periphery. And that's what Merkel doesn't do.”]

    Merkel has no children, so doesn’t care what happens to Germany or her fellow Germans after she is gone.

    ___________
    *
    [AfD's Petry bashes 'Mutti Merkel' over childlessness]

    https://www.thelocal.de/20160915/petry-bashes-mutti-merkel-over-childlessness

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @5371
    [And they would have been crushed in 1914 had Britain decided not to uphold its treaty obligations.]

    Wut? Britain had no treaty obligations to France, and those to Belgium were very much open to interpretation. In any case, France would have survived the 1914 campaign without Britain (but not, of course, without Russia).

    Yes, exactly – Britain honored its obligations to Belgium. Functionally that meant siding with France against Germany, so why nitpick?

    And all the histories I’ve read indicate 1914 was a close run thing, and only failed because a whole bunch of events turned out not in Germany’s favor – amongst which the quick dislocation of crack British troops to Belgium was one of the main ones.

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    • Replies: @5371
    When the French ambassador was begging in London for Britain to enter the war, he said little or nothing about the phony pretext of Belgian neutrality, and much about the covert arrangements which his counterparts in the Foreign Office and army had undertaken without informing parliament, the cabinet, or even (with any specificity) the prime minister himself.
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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Talha

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.
     
    Bingo!

    Here it is going one step further (not saying Dmitry is pushing this, just an example of the maladaptive strain):
    https://aeon.co/essays/having-children-is-not-life-affirming-its-immoral

    I personally found Dmitry's perspective very refreshing and honest from a materialist and individualist standpoint. And well-grounded and consistent with the framework he believes in.

    Peace.

    {… from a materialist and individualist standpoint.}

    Right.

    But evolution or God (depending on your belief system) solved that ‘problem’ long time ago. You (generic you) choose to live the good life, materialistic life, individual life – and have no children. Over time your kind of genes get eliminated.

    If you have children, grandchildren – you care and worry about the future.
    You do whatever you can humanly possible, while you are alive, to make sure your genes are perpetuated through your descendants.

    This is playing out in West Europe even as we watch: the materialistic, individualistic Europeans are eliminating themselves, and being replaced…..by those who have lots of children.

    Read More
    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Avery,

    Yeah and I feel bad for them. They could turn it around by simply changing their attitude to life - but it’s their life, their future...

    It is interesting that in Arabic, someone who is “faithless” is called a mulHid and it derives from the tri-letter root (لحد) which means “to dig a grave”.

    Peace.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @Zorro
    Russia's demographics are catastrophic if you look into them. First of it has both the 3rd highest amount of immigrants of any country and the 3rd highest amount of emigrants of any country and a birth rate below replacement level and the population that is supposed to be reproducing right now those 20-30 years old are part of the dead zone of the 90's when the demographic collapse originally began. The emigrants are mostly Russians while the migrants are central Asians. The birth rate increases are entirely concentrated in ethno- republics or Major urban centers that take in migrants. So the ethnic Russian population is actually being eradicated at a much greater rate than any population in the West going through similar problems.

    Since Russia is pretty much a modern neo-liberal capitalist state it suffers from all of the same problems the west has when it comes to the population growth namely alienation, feminism, careerism etc but it's also a considerably poorer crony capitalist state with considerably less opportunities considerably more corruption and low institutional trust and lack of institutions in general so the problems are quadrupled in Russia when compared to the West and this is reflected in the abortion rate the alcoholism tobacco consumption and drug abuse. And due to the nature of Russia's crony capitalist system it doesn't really have any options to deal with this because crony capitalist systems generally are unable and unwilling to tackle these problems. The state of Egypt for example has little to no effect on Egyptian demographics except in the case of Egypt the population is growing too fast for the government to cope and creating massive problems in the case of Russia the reverse is true the population is dying out in a rapid pace creating massive problems.

    As Jon0815 points out, virtually all of this is misinformed nonsense.

    … the 3rd highest amount of emigrants of any country

    They were also predominantly the product of the late 1980s and 1990s, and a large percentage of them were minorities (Jews and Germans).

    The birth rate increases are entirely concentrated in ethno- republics or Major urban centers that take in migrants.

    Incorrect. The gap between Russian and non-Russian TFR has been shrinking for the past few decades.

    … and this is reflected in the abortion rate the alcoholism tobacco consumption and drug abuse.

    All of which have been plummeting since the end of the USSR, and the early 2000s, respectively.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-demographics-in-2018/

    … in the case of Russia the reverse is true the population is dying out in a rapid pace creating massive problems.

    This was true in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was no longer true from the late 2000s. Even most journalists had noticed by 2015.

    Maybe it will be true again someday, but that is speculation. In the meantime, the East European countries that do qualify as dying out: Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, the Ukraine, to a lesser extent Hungary.

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @Dmitry

    That’s factually incorrect, I’m 33 now, so unless I die prematurely or kill myself, I will in all likelihood get to see the extremely negative consequences of the ongoing mass immigration to my country. It’s not an abstract concern about some distant future no one alive will see, but about developments that will affect my personal life and the lives of many of those commenting here, about trends already clearly visible (and which probably will only get worse), and how things will be in about 2040 or so (which isn’t that distant in time…I remember 1995 well enough).
    But you seem to be arguing from an extreme individualist perspective and on the assumption that nothing in the end really matters. In the long term that’s probably true (eventually humanity will in all likelihood cease to exist, and the sun will go out, and our solar system will become a cold and lifeless place), but I can’t feel much sympathy for such complete indifference and detachment, it strikes me as extreme egoism masquerading as philosophical virtue.
     
    Sure if you live in Germany, policies might one day be suicidal enough that it could lower your standard of living by retirement times - perhaps you could retire in more sane country. But in most countries, life-standards are improving, insofar as will actually effect us - in our life we already have more opportunities and standard of living than our parents (even as things like 'high-culture' or 'national culture' are in decline).

    We are talking about this subject of demographics. From a national perspective, it would be preferable if it would reach replacement rate. But the current situation is not that - and the regions with highest fertility are ones with high rates of non-Russians, mainly Muslim regions. Imagine in 2150 (arbitrary number, I don't know the calculations), it will become a partly Muslim country. It might not be ideal, but this does not effect my life - I see no reason to stress about it. That is a normal reaction, I don't think it is extreme. Interest in 'future of society' hardly needs to extend past retirement age.

    A secondary issue is how much control you have over events. Nobody here has any control over any of these events - not more than a football fan watching on television, has control over his team can win the match. In the case of the football, the emotions are irrational, and likewise for us over things we cannot control. So long as it is still interesting and entertaining, it can be fun to discuss - but again, I'm not going to pull my hair out if I see a negative trend I cannot change (and I guess even Putin cannot change). There are more than enough opportunities for us now, that I find the whining of people in rich, developed countries, some kind of ungrateful tiresome, even when I agree with their overall point of view and support all the same policies they do.

    As for philosophical virtue. This alleged 'egoism' attitude is reflected by many educated people - whether it is Epicurus, Montaigne, or even politically engaged people like Herzen. Herzen writes in his memoirs far more cynical and 'egotistical' things than anything I have said in this thread.

    Interest in ‘future of society’ hardly needs to extend past retirement age.

    For you, perhaps. For me, I care very much about the future of the “society” that my children (and hopefully grandchildren) will live in Even if I didn’t have children, I think I would also care. Your view strikes me as extraordinarily cynical, but I am sure it is not an uncommon one.

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  • Do you have info about Belarus demographics? Since Belarus managed quite well the 90s black years, I bet Belarus is the best of the three Russias in terms of demographic trends.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    You're intuition is largely correct. Belarus has better life expectancy than Russia by around 2 years, and has pretty much tracked Russian TFR. Adjust Russia down by ~0.1 children per woman, and Belarus would have done at least equally well; but compare Belarus with Central Russian regions, which have a lower TFR than Russians in the Urals and Siberia, and they do very well indeed. However, because the Belorussian population is older on average, and considerably numbers of Belorussians emigrated to Russia, its population has fallen more in relative terms.
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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view - It's a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world "will be peaceful and [continue to] progress", even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people's investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    Bingo!

    Here it is going one step further (not saying Dmitry is pushing this, just an example of the maladaptive strain):

    https://aeon.co/essays/having-children-is-not-life-affirming-its-immoral

    I personally found Dmitry’s perspective very refreshing and honest from a materialist and individualist standpoint. And well-grounded and consistent with the framework he believes in.

    Peace.

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    • Agree: Dmitry
    • Replies: @Avery
    {... from a materialist and individualist standpoint.}

    Right.

    But evolution or God (depending on your belief system) solved that 'problem' long time ago. You (generic you) choose to live the good life, materialistic life, individual life - and have no children. Over time your kind of genes get eliminated.

    If you have children, grandchildren - you care and worry about the future.
    You do whatever you can humanly possible, while you are alive, to make sure your genes are perpetuated through your descendants.

    This is playing out in West Europe even as we watch: the materialistic, individualistic Europeans are eliminating themselves, and being replaced.....by those who have lots of children.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • @EricCh
    "India might" AK need to inform himself more about the ground reality of India. Indians youth, according to their own education survey, is dumber than a bag of rocks. This survey focus on 14-18 years old rural youths.

    https://scroll.in/article/865593/why-more-and-more-parents-are-going-for-private-schools-director-of-influential-education-survey

    http://www.livemint.com/Education/sLNNNO5Lvl7dcdVJRH5osN/Indias-learning-deficit-is-worsening-ASER-study.html

    Highlight:
    1) 40% of the students between the ages of 14 and 18 surveyed in rural schools across 24 states could not tell the time from the image of a clock.
    2) 57% of 14-18 CANNOT do simple Division.
    3) 24% cannot count money correctly

    For Indian city kids, PISA 2009 should print you a picture that worth a thousand words.

    Hence the “might.”

    I am aware of all that and have written about it in the past. India can still make major gains for Flynn (genotypic ceiling IQ is probably around 95), and it appears to have a powerful smart fraction.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @reiner Tor

    Latvian woman here.
     
    Why don’t you go back to using your handle? It’s annoying to find so many anonymous comments, some of which belong to this or that anon (you are not the only one).

    I apologize if I caused any inconvenience (in no way did I ever think I was “the only one”), I can’t use my handle for technical reasons (there’s another user under the same IP posting on a different section of the site and I don’t have time to go look for a different IP to post from – I’m a busy mom).

    In any event, I don’t intend to post much. Just wanted to say Hi to AP.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    in no way did I ever think I was “the only one”
     
    You misunderstood, I remember you well; I meant you are not the only one to post in such a manner (there was for example an "Anon from TN" recently), so my comment wasn't really meant to you, but to all posters regularly posting here without a handle.

    I now understand why you need to do that. (Maybe Ron could accept it if you explained to him..? Anyway, if you don't post too often, I agree it's not so important.)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world “will be peaceful and [continue to] progress”, even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people’s investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.

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    • Replies: @Talha

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.
     
    Bingo!

    Here it is going one step further (not saying Dmitry is pushing this, just an example of the maladaptive strain):
    https://aeon.co/essays/having-children-is-not-life-affirming-its-immoral

    I personally found Dmitry's perspective very refreshing and honest from a materialist and individualist standpoint. And well-grounded and consistent with the framework he believes in.

    Peace.

    , @Dmitry

    Thoughts on the Dmitry vs. everyone else debate.

    1. Thanks Dmitry for offering this brave perspective (brave because it goes against conventional thinking and gut reactions).

    My view – It’s a completely rational viewpoint. Though like many overly rational attitudes, evolutionarily maladaptive.

    2. In economics, the standard way to value the welfare of current vs. future generations is to apply a time discount rate. (Since Dmitry says that he does have a preference that the world “will be peaceful and [continue to] progress”, even in his case, it evidently does not fall to absolute zero after his death). Consequently, the debate is really about the size of this discount rate.

    3. Promoting research into radical life extension will open up the possibility of a society-wide compression of the discount rate, as people’s investment into the future will increase since a larger and larger percentage of the population will face the prospect of dealing with the long-term consequences of the policies they support. So this is one of many good arguments in favor of it.
     
    Thanks.

    Yes you can frame it in terms of time discounting. But my point is not to say I have a high time discounting, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have a low one. And it's also not to say that I wholly discount anything beyond my death, while German Reader and Reiner Tor have posthumous preferences (even if at significantly discounted rates for posthumous times).

    It's stronger point that for preferences covering posthumous time, regardless of whether you have them or not (and it is natural human tendency to have them) - it is irrelevant whether they are fulfilled or not, and probably we cannot speak in meaningful way of their fulfillment.

    The issue of whether and why we have posthumous preferences, is matter for psychology, and will vary from person to person.

    But the notion that they can be fulfilled (and therefore be said that it is relevant whether they are fulfilled or not), requires transcendental perspective, that does not exist.

    This issue can be related to the discussion of death made by Epicurus.

    Epicurus' insight into death was: "Where there is death, I am not. And where I am, death is not. I do not care."

    Objection to Epicurus by Thomas Nagel (I quote from his book 'Mortal Questions'):

    "The first type of objection is expressed in general form
    by the common remark that what you don't know can't hurt you. It
    means that even if a man is betrayed by his friends, ridiculed behind
    his back, and despised by people who treat him politely to his
    face, none of it can be counted as a misfortune for him so long as he
    does not suffer as a result. It means that a man is not injured if his
    wishes are ignored by the executor of his will, or if, after his death,
    the belief becomes current that all the literary works on which his
    fame rests were really written by his brother, who died in Mexico
    at the age of twenty-eight."


    ---


    This objection of Nagel, can make sense for me, but only to the extent that if you are betrayed behind your back by your friends, there is potentiality that you can discover it. So there is an unfortunate potentiality contained in this situation (that you could discover that your friends are betraying you, but until you do everything is going well). In the case of death - let's say for Alexander III, until we find that he was in possession of crystal ball for seeing into future, there is no indication that there was potentiality that he could discover his family would be murdered in the revolution. To the extent that he did not know, he was therefore completely unaffected.

    ----

    My clarifications -

    1. I am not saying that it makes no difference how you think that things will be after you die. If we believe that the world will be destroyed in a nuclear apocalypse in February 2100, this would very much 'ruin' the old age period of our lives - while we are still living. Our beliefs about posthumous future, can certainly impact us - while we are living.

    But for actual realization of our posthumous preferences - this requires a transcendental perspective, which there is no evidence that we can ever access.

    2. I am not saying this in 'solipsistic' way (other people don't matter). The point is again simple insight of Epicurus. To understand the reality - that death is non-existence. A total nothingness, with no transcendental perspective, despite the resistance that people naturally have to this (saying they accept it, but not really understanding it and still imagining that they can be affected by posthumous events).

    Really it is more kind of humility, than solipsism. And this is what I mean by 'I don't give a shit what happens after I die'. Well it's not completely true (but in reality, nothing that actually happens after that touches you, even as you imagine as if it does).
    , @RadicalCenter
    Interesting point.

    But can't we expect that only a tiny percentage of the population will be able to afford life-extending technologies? Many people even in the USA, Canada, and Europe will be struggling just to provide for their families and cling to something less than what we consider a "First World" standard of living.
    , @reiner Tor
    I disagree, and, with all due respect, here I think you are providing the authentic 'sperg viewpoint. (Which is I think where Dmitry is also coming from.)

    time discount rate
     
    I can't remember much from microeconomics about time preference, but I think it was just normally assumed as a given. I'm lazy to search for it online.

    But if you stop to think about it, there are at least two sources for it. Please let me know if you can think of a third reason to discount the future.

    Reason A: The future is unknown, and the more distant future is the one we have the least information about. The future promise might be broken due to unforeseen circumstances, so the larger later reward might never come.

    Reason B: It's better to enjoy the rewards while young. Self-explanatory: a smaller sooner reward is actually bigger because being old will discount any reward to a great extent. Having a Lada at age 18 might be a better girlfriend magnet than having a Ferrari at age 80, so it's perfectly rational to choose the former over the latter.

    I don't dismiss argument A: yes, there's some uncertainty as to what the demography of France will be in 2050, though the thing about demographic predictions is that at least partly they actually predict the past: if 35% of all newborn this year are nonwhite, than it's not difficult to predict that absent any huge cataclysmic event by 2050 35% of all 32-year-olds will be nonwhite. That's not a difficult prediction. If the portion among newborns has increased by 1% point annually for the past fifteen or twenty years, than it's also not very difficult to predict that it will be over 50% after 2040, again, absent some cataclysmic events.

    But Dmitry is arguing for reason B: that it's better to enjoy things while we live. He is willing to completely discount the future - he doesn't seem to care for whatever happens to his descendants. Not just "it's more important to get by now, and let my kids deal with future challenges when they come in their way," but rather "I know the world is going down the drain, but who cares? I'll have the good life till I live, and I don't even care if my children will be exterminated afterwards." This is psychopathic. As I wrote, I don't think he's a psychopath, he's just probably trying to argue "rationally" something (perhaps against his own gut feelings) which is not well thought out by him.

    My point is the following: if the question is about our descendants, especially the possibility of their extinction, then time preference doesn't apply at all.

    Let me give you a thought experiments:


    1) HARD TIMES LEAD TO EVENTUAL SUCCESS
    Let's assume your ethnicity (this could be Russians for you, Jews for Dmitry, but he can also choose Russians or whichever he pleases, could be Germans for German_reader, Britons or the English for Randal, etc.) will be nearly exterminated after our deaths. Let's assume with the exception of 100,000 each and every member of our respective ethnicities will be exterminated 100 years hence. Let's assume your descendants will be among the survivors. The survivors will then form a close-kit ethnic religion with no intermarriage and little contact with the outside world. (We find refuge on the distant side of the Moon or wherever.) And then, 1,000 years later, all of humanity will be wiped out by a huge asteroid strike - except for the descendants of our ethnic group, who are hiding somewhere. Then our descendants will get out of hiding, and inherit the Earth. They will within a few centuries build a richer and happier world, and soon colonize other planets or whatever.
     

    2) INITIAL SUCCESS BUT EVENTUAL FAILURE
    In 100 years your ethnicity conquers the Earth and become overlords. However, 1,000 years later, the asteroid destroys the planet, leading to the complete wipeout of your descendants. The Earth will be inherited by a weird sect which spent all those years in hiding (maybe from the all-mighty empire of your ethnicity).
     
    Which do you choose? Neither means personal discomfort to you. But in one, your descendants will be the ultimate lords of the Earth, forever (or until there is humanity at all - all humans will be your descendants). But only after a huge tragedy befell them. And then they will have to wait for their luck in great discomfort for a long time. In the second scenario, though your descendants manage to conquer the planet and live in great comfort for dozens of generations, eventually they will all get wiped out.

    Would you choose 2) or 1)? I think it's obvious that 1) is vastly better than 2): the former promises eventual paradise, while the latter gratification for your grandchildren, but at the price of their later descendants completely getting wiped out.

    So, discounting time preferences beyond your lifetime is only legitimate because you don't quite know the future: you cannot know if being nearly exterminated can lead in the later future some untold gains - you simply cannot predict the future (in this case, the asteroid).

    Dmitry argues that he'd rather just enjoy personal comfort and let his descendants (this must include his yet-to-be-born kid or kids) suffer. He doesn't care. That's psychopathic.

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  • @Avery
    {Wouldn’t it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus,}

    It might be cheaper moneywise, but in the long run it will be a strategic disaster.
    The Russian empire expanded into those areas in the first place a couple centuries ago, because those places were bandit heavens: raids were regularly mounted into Russian populated areas to kidnap people for ransom. Basically lawless badlands causing Russia endless grief and a security threat.

    And Chechnya did get de facto independence after RF lost the 1st Chechen war.
    So, the first thing Chechen Islamists did was invade neighboring regions still part of RF, with the stated goal spreading radical Islam throughout the region and beyond.
    And we know what happened next.

    Those three regions cannot and will not stay independent and neutral for long, after Russia withdraws.
    First, they'll be co-opted by NATO/ Saudi Arabia, and next will become staging areas for destabilizing Russia.It will be a lot more expensive for Russia to deal with that than paying the subsidies now, and having a free reign to come in heavy if things get out of hand. Now it's internal matter, and NATO/Neocon dogs can't yap. But invading a sovereign country will be very costly for RF on the international scene.

    {I don’t understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.}

    Right: you don't.
    But you can figure it out, if I give you this piece of info: Russia has a large base in Republic of Armenia with about 5,000 troops and also has an air wing based in Yerevan. Armenia benefits, of course. But Russia is not doing it for Armenia: Russia is doing it, because they look far into the future.
    Armenia is the only Christian state breaking the long chain of Muslim states from Turkey to the Stans. See?

    Hey Avery,

    Good points, all – thanks.

    Peace.

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  • @Talha
    Ho dang - they are literally paying for them to have more kids - that's hilarious!!!

    Wouldn't it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus, let them go their own way and erect a long fence or something? Is there a long term strategy here or - we'll simply see what happens?

    I don't understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.

    Peace.

    {Wouldn’t it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus,}

    It might be cheaper moneywise, but in the long run it will be a strategic disaster.
    The Russian empire expanded into those areas in the first place a couple centuries ago, because those places were bandit heavens: raids were regularly mounted into Russian populated areas to kidnap people for ransom. Basically lawless badlands causing Russia endless grief and a security threat.

    And Chechnya did get de facto independence after RF lost the 1st Chechen war.
    So, the first thing Chechen Islamists did was invade neighboring regions still part of RF, with the stated goal spreading radical Islam throughout the region and beyond.
    And we know what happened next.

    Those three regions cannot and will not stay independent and neutral for long, after Russia withdraws.
    First, they’ll be co-opted by NATO/ Saudi Arabia, and next will become staging areas for destabilizing Russia.It will be a lot more expensive for Russia to deal with that than paying the subsidies now, and having a free reign to come in heavy if things get out of hand. Now it’s internal matter, and NATO/Neocon dogs can’t yap. But invading a sovereign country will be very costly for RF on the international scene.

    {I don’t understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.}

    Right: you don’t.
    But you can figure it out, if I give you this piece of info: Russia has a large base in Republic of Armenia with about 5,000 troops and also has an air wing based in Yerevan. Armenia benefits, of course. But Russia is not doing it for Armenia: Russia is doing it, because they look far into the future.
    Armenia is the only Christian state breaking the long chain of Muslim states from Turkey to the Stans. See?

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Hey Avery,

    Good points, all - thanks.

    Peace.
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  • @for-the-record
    This is a relatively fair system, I think.

    I'm not disagreeing with you at all, but neither you nor the other commenter (AP) responded to what I think is the more important, and perhaps intractable, point -- in "Western" societies (I'm not so sure about Hungary) many educated women don't see childbearing as essential or intellectually stimulating. You could pay my sons' partners a fortune, and they probably still wouldn't choose to have children.

    Sorry to hear it.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    The current female German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen has 7 children, of all people.

    But yes you're right.

    The current female German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen has 7 children, of all people.

    She’s from a privileged background (her father was Christian Democrat minister president of Lower Saxony from 1976 to 1990), so she can afford to have that many children, it’s sort of a status symbol.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Agreed. Chechnya and Ingushetia are both subsidized 85% by federal transfers; Dagestan, 80%.

    Ho dang – they are literally paying for them to have more kids – that’s hilarious!!!

    Wouldn’t it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus, let them go their own way and erect a long fence or something? Is there a long term strategy here or – we’ll simply see what happens?

    I don’t understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    {Wouldn’t it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus,}

    It might be cheaper moneywise, but in the long run it will be a strategic disaster.
    The Russian empire expanded into those areas in the first place a couple centuries ago, because those places were bandit heavens: raids were regularly mounted into Russian populated areas to kidnap people for ransom. Basically lawless badlands causing Russia endless grief and a security threat.

    And Chechnya did get de facto independence after RF lost the 1st Chechen war.
    So, the first thing Chechen Islamists did was invade neighboring regions still part of RF, with the stated goal spreading radical Islam throughout the region and beyond.
    And we know what happened next.

    Those three regions cannot and will not stay independent and neutral for long, after Russia withdraws.
    First, they'll be co-opted by NATO/ Saudi Arabia, and next will become staging areas for destabilizing Russia.It will be a lot more expensive for Russia to deal with that than paying the subsidies now, and having a free reign to come in heavy if things get out of hand. Now it's internal matter, and NATO/Neocon dogs can't yap. But invading a sovereign country will be very costly for RF on the international scene.

    {I don’t understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.}

    Right: you don't.
    But you can figure it out, if I give you this piece of info: Russia has a large base in Republic of Armenia with about 5,000 troops and also has an air wing based in Yerevan. Armenia benefits, of course. But Russia is not doing it for Armenia: Russia is doing it, because they look far into the future.
    Armenia is the only Christian state breaking the long chain of Muslim states from Turkey to the Stans. See?

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @AP

    Having many children seems strongly associated with low-status, unfortunately
     
    More than 5 children, sure.

    3 kids isn't terribly uncommon among upper middle class or wealthy Americans, however. Stats of child size by income are skewed by high numbers of Latinos and blacks on the poor end, who have many children. I"m not sure that Belmont families are a lot smaller than Fishtown ones, OTOH.

    Wealthy Americans that come to mind - Romney has 5 kids, Trump 5 kids (albeit with 3 women), Bill Gates has 3 kids, Bill Ford (heir of Ford motor company) has 5 kids, Warren Buffett has 3 kids, Ted Kennedy had 3 kids.

    The current female German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen has 7 children, of all people.

    But yes you’re right.

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    • Replies: @German_reader

    The current female German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen has 7 children, of all people.
     
    She's from a privileged background (her father was Christian Democrat minister president of Lower Saxony from 1976 to 1990), so she can afford to have that many children, it's sort of a status symbol.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Dmitry

    That’s factually incorrect, I’m 33 now, so unless I die prematurely or kill myself, I will in all likelihood get to see the extremely negative consequences of the ongoing mass immigration to my country. It’s not an abstract concern about some distant future no one alive will see, but about developments that will affect my personal life and the lives of many of those commenting here, about trends already clearly visible (and which probably will only get worse), and how things will be in about 2040 or so (which isn’t that distant in time…I remember 1995 well enough).
    But you seem to be arguing from an extreme individualist perspective and on the assumption that nothing in the end really matters. In the long term that’s probably true (eventually humanity will in all likelihood cease to exist, and the sun will go out, and our solar system will become a cold and lifeless place), but I can’t feel much sympathy for such complete indifference and detachment, it strikes me as extreme egoism masquerading as philosophical virtue.
     
    Sure if you live in Germany, policies might one day be suicidal enough that it could lower your standard of living by retirement times - perhaps you could retire in more sane country. But in most countries, life-standards are improving, insofar as will actually effect us - in our life we already have more opportunities and standard of living than our parents (even as things like 'high-culture' or 'national culture' are in decline).

    We are talking about this subject of demographics. From a national perspective, it would be preferable if it would reach replacement rate. But the current situation is not that - and the regions with highest fertility are ones with high rates of non-Russians, mainly Muslim regions. Imagine in 2150 (arbitrary number, I don't know the calculations), it will become a partly Muslim country. It might not be ideal, but this does not effect my life - I see no reason to stress about it. That is a normal reaction, I don't think it is extreme. Interest in 'future of society' hardly needs to extend past retirement age.

    A secondary issue is how much control you have over events. Nobody here has any control over any of these events - not more than a football fan watching on television, has control over his team can win the match. In the case of the football, the emotions are irrational, and likewise for us over things we cannot control. So long as it is still interesting and entertaining, it can be fun to discuss - but again, I'm not going to pull my hair out if I see a negative trend I cannot change (and I guess even Putin cannot change). There are more than enough opportunities for us now, that I find the whining of people in rich, developed countries, some kind of ungrateful tiresome, even when I agree with their overall point of view and support all the same policies they do.

    As for philosophical virtue. This alleged 'egoism' attitude is reflected by many educated people - whether it is Epicurus, Montaigne, or even politically engaged people like Herzen. Herzen writes in his memoirs far more cynical and 'egotistical' things than anything I have said in this thread.

    in our life we already have more opportunities and standard of living than our parents

    Well, you’re from the former Soviet Union, so for you that’s true, for me and many others in Western Europe things are definitely not better than for our parents’ generation.

    Imagine in 2150

    We’re not talking about some distant future, we’re talking about 30-40 years from now, that is well within the probable lifetime of young people alive today. By current trends the native populations in much of Western Europe will become minorities at some time in the 2050s and 2060s. Major trouble and civil strife will in all probability happen well before that, as will the collapse of the pensions and welfare systems (the combination of the baby boomers going into retirement plus having to provide for unproductive, parasitical “refugees” will crush the native working population under an immense burden and will accelerate the demographic death spiral for the native population, with many who have the necessary financial means and skills probably fleeing to the US or Oceania, or maybe even China).

    This alleged ‘egoism’ attitude is reflected by many educated people – whether it is Epicurus, Montaigne, or even politically engaged people like Herzen.

    I shouldn’t have accused you of egoism, sorry for that. I actually can to some degree understand your views (even if I disagree), your reasoning isn’t implausible…but your conclusions do seem a bit extreme to me.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    We’re not talking about some distant future, we’re talking about 30-40 years from now, that is well within the probable lifetime of young people alive today. By current trends the native populations in much of Western Europe will become minorities at some time in the 2050s and 2060s. Major trouble and civil strife will in all probability happen well before that, as will the collapse of the pensions and welfare systems (the combination of the baby boomers going into retirement plus having to provide for unproductive, parasitical “refugees” will crush the native working population under an immense burden and will accelerate the demographic death spiral for the native population, with many who have the necessary financial means and skills probably fleeing to the US or Oceania, or maybe even China).
     
    This is very pessimistic. I do not have such pessimistic views of political future. But if I did - I would leave open the Montaigne point of view, where he 'retreats to his tower'. Assuming you don't have a tower, there will surely be places you would move to like Switzerland which will be still great in the 2050s, even if Germany starts to follow a suicidal path in the future decades.
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  • @AP

    I would immodestly say the kind of person most important for the country’s economic future
     
    You are still young enough to have children later, but ultimately someone who has no children in life, unless they have generated a lot of income or made some other great contribution, are parasites. When you get old, someone else's kids will be carrying on for you (assuming you never have children later). While childless people spend their earnings on themselves, those with children are spending their earnings on an investment in society's future. This ought to be reflected in tax policy. Perhaps one can calculate how much each kid provides for the future, decrease the parents' tax burden accordingly, and compensate for this with a corresponding increase on the taxes of childless people.

    Ideally, tax rate changes would also benefit those who are more educated and whose children would presumably contribute more, although this would be criticized as eugenics.

    And this would undermine the entire purpose of the policy (unless you add an emigration ban as well).
     
    Or simply levying some sort of an exit tax on emigrants, perhaps having them pay back their subsidized educations or whatever.

    Or simply levying some sort of an exit tax on emigrants… Then the US levies sanctions on you for holding people captive.

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  • @reiner Tor
    Do Chechens pay a lot of taxes? Otherwise it’d be not better for them at all. To compensate for the tax cuts for top taxpayers with a lot of children, you’d need to cut welfare for non-taxpayers. So it could easily result in a worse situation for them.

    Agreed. Chechnya and Ingushetia are both subsidized 85% by federal transfers; Dagestan, 80%.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Ho dang - they are literally paying for them to have more kids - that's hilarious!!!

    Wouldn't it just be cheaper to pull back from the Caucasus, let them go their own way and erect a long fence or something? Is there a long term strategy here or - we'll simply see what happens?

    I don't understand what that place has to offer from a strategic vantage point.

    Peace.
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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • Which population outperforms in tech, in a per capita way? I’m guessing Sweden. Maybe Switzerland and Israel are near the top too.

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