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    The demographers of the United Nation's Population Division have quietly released their World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision report. Above is a graph I put together from their new data that explains much about the "Migrant Crisis" of 2015. As you can see, way back in 1950, the population of the Middle East was only 18%...
  • […] Second, even with or without the Mexico City Policy, concerns about a population explosion in black Africa are moot. […]

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  • […] credit: Steve Sailer; Data from the United Nations World Population Prospects […]

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  • […] This is, I think, the founding intuition behind strong support for immigration by rich country elites: not that the importation of individuals with little education or marketable skills will reduce wages, as is often claimed, but that these individuals will be customers for goods and private and public services in a way that will keep the economy working (at least from the perspective of the people who create most of our perceptions and discourse.) Here, for example, are U.N. projection prospects: […]

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  • […] The Graph That Explains the Migrant Crises of 2016-2100, by Steve Sailer, who put togther this graph based on the U.N.’s 2015 revised population estimates: […]

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  • […] Steve Sailer; Daten von United Nations World Population Prospects […]

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  • […] Steve Sailer; Daten von United Nations World Population Prospects […]

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  • […] There’s another bit to this and that is Germany will have to take the lead in defending Europe militarily. History has not ended and that means Europe will have to maintain a foreign policy and a military to back it. Russia will forever make mischief in Europe. That’s what Russians are put on earth to do so that has to be addressed. Then there’s the demographic issue to the south. […]

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  • […] credit: Steve Sailer; Data from the United Nations World Population Prospects […]

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  • […] in Africa remain the most high-fertility people in the world (See Steve Sailer’s “The World’s Most Important Graph“. If it is the case that U.S. Black and White fertility has very nearly converged, […]

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  • The Parsis are dying out. This people of western India, originally from Iran and famous for their role in trade, science, and industry, may disappear by mid-century, having already fallen from 114,890 in 1941 to 69,001 in 2011. Deaths outnumber births by a ratio of almost three to one. What has caused this calamity? War?...
  • @reiner Tor
    I don't know if the lessons from Alexander's time are relevant here. Alexander's Greeks were operating thousands of miles from their bases, which meant that for example manpower losses could not be replenished, we don't even know exactly the force ratios (the only missing variables are Alexander's troop strength numbers and those of his opponents).

    India was still conquered many times over by outside forces. Of course there could be many reasons for that, but don't forget that the caste system is not just vertical, it's also horizontal. Normally Brahmins from different provinces didn't consider each other as spouses, only Brahmins from the same jati and same province married.

    However, it doesn't really matter, there's no way India could be a normal nation-state.

    Who conquered us many times over?

    Your people are commiting suicide, and the only way to win is by going back to worshipping Devi Danu.

    Guess what, she’s a Persian woman who mated with a Ksytria.

    Ironic, well your beautiful women will be safe with us. ;)

    & we’ll have the largest economy as we historically have.

    Treachery undid India, but w.e we’re around with our original culture. you germanics raped your own mother..

    Parsis don’t accept converts because that was their promise. Some people have principles, unlike Anglos. .

    Please tell me what Jewish idea to follow next.
    How many women did you sell to the jew cousins Arabs?

    What do you feel knowing, your Anglo empire has primarily been used for Islamic demographic expansion.

    & all u got for it was a 2gb ram dual cor iphone. xD

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  • @kim

    Culture can be preserved in books or on videotape. A gene pool can be preserved only in living human beings, and there is still much we don’t know about the Parsi gene pool. In fact, we know very little. I would like to see the Parsis remain Parsi.
     
    Intermarriage is inevitable. In India, you have thousands of tiny communities, castes, sub-castes who never intermarry. Even certain castes have very different genetics. Like the Chitpavans
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chitpavan
    who have light skin and occasionally hazel, green eyes. I'm the product of a recent inter-caste marriage between a Chitpavan and another caste and both 'sides' look very different: tall vs short, hazel-eyed vs black eyes, fair skin vs brown skin, but I look more 'Indian'. People of 'lighter' castes can be pretty racist about maintaining their non-Indian looks. But there is an overlap in phenotypes.
    This is because intermarriage and admixture have happened for a long time. It's not like the US where there is a great divide between whites and blacks.

    It's really not possible for Indians of different communities to maintain their genetic identity. It's not even about Aryan vs Dravidian or north vs south indian. Many communities immigrated to India : Cochin Jews, Armenians, Syrian Jews , Iranis, Afghans or the Anglo Indians etc. There's no way out for them- they can't go 'back' and they'll eventually become more Indian through intermarriage.

    Don’t bring your nonsense of pratilom here where you want high caste girls with black male shudras.

    We kill over it everyday. Punjab Zindabad

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  • In this post, I intend to disprove or at least question five commonly encountered myths about world demography (as I already did for Russia). 1. The Third World is experiencing a fertility-driven population explosion. Whereas this was true a generation ago, today most countries outside sub-Saharan Africa are in the later throes of demographic transition...
  • […] European multiculturalism had failed and had no future. (This, fundamentally, is why back then I was so skeptical about the Eurabia concept. I still assumed that democracies at least to some extent answered to […]

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  • The demographers of the United Nation's Population Division have quietly released their World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision report. Above is a graph I put together from their new data that explains much about the "Migrant Crisis" of 2015. As you can see, way back in 1950, the population of the Middle East was only 18%...
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  • @anon

    This seems to be an even harder problem.
     
    How do you know it is hard when it has never been tried?

    (except by Israel and Putin where it worked)

    Despite the constant refrain from the media that low birth rates are a terrible problem they have *never* suggested policies to increase low white birth rates only more immigration, always more immigration.

    I say it is hard because the rate keeps getting lower, although everyone says it needs to be higher. I did note that Germany prior to WW2 and the USA post WW2, both significantly raised their birth rates. Germany did it primarilly by banning abortion. Israel and Russia, as you note, have done it as well and Israel seems to have done it over the long term. I wish the US could raise its native birth rate but how to do this is still not clear to me. If there were easily identifiable policies, someone should have pointed them out. If you can suggest, or anyone can suggest how this can be done, I am all ears.

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  • @anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world?

    You might be making a blank slate assumption that the only thing that changes is the race of the people and that Europeans will thus be more 'connected'. But all those people will be related to other people, other people outside Europe. There's no reason to believe that the change will just be racial.

    Why would people not remain partially loyal to their partial ancestry? And to all their current conflicts? What will connect partial West Africans to partial Iraqis, Afghans, Bengalis? The won't all just think of themselves as 'mixed'. History suggests that often the leaders of ethnic movements are only partially of the relevant ethnicity. So it sounds like it might be one big Northern Ireland, with a lot more tribes and animosities. Why won't it all become tribal? Wonderful social planning.

    Low-trust societies might exist because of a genetic component (or lack of a component). A significant part of the success of the West might result from a high-trust genetic inheritance. Low-trust societies, the type of place where cousin marriages are high, as Steve sometimes writes about, do not seem inherently "progressive" (in the general sense). Indeed, just the reverse. They seem like a constant war of all against all. How do you know that a 1/3 low-trust genetic contribution is not enough to destroy the high-trust basis on which the West depends? I don't know that it will, either, or that a genetic basis even exists. But it's incumbent on you to find out and prove your assumption that it doesn't, before you gamble the entire future on what may be nothing more than a confused muddle of a plan based on feelings.

    Some great points but it is only in Europe (to “native” Europeans) will this be racial, due to that heritage of colonialism. Since Europe has tended to be homogenous as opposed to the heterogenous nature of Islam (despite cultural, social and geographical considerations), most of said new mixed groups will indeed fall onto their non European designation as is the informal rule.

    A mixed heritage person is a mixed heritage person! Within democracy, the absolute should be behaviour of self or others within the milieu as opposed to the colour spectrum usually espoused by Eurocentric ideals based on laws to marginalize said “minorities”.

    The literature of mestizaje is an excellent background and will serves as basis of understanding but that will change due to how this mestizaje plays out in the European environment.

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  • The article is nice but it oversimplifies an illusion which is totally false and a misrepresentation of facts. What we see now in Europe is real but the majority of the “freeloaders” “migrants” etc are from the Middle East, specifically Arab countries. Just to do a representative sampling of object visualization (TV, media sources) the alleged “sub Saharan” influx is bogus and comical.

    It is obvious that the selling of arms by those dictatorial governments initially supported by USA, now in control by the very people who they had ignored in the past and they are now causing havoc and mayhem allowing for this exodus to the land of ‘opportunity’, which is Europe. Add, the overthrow of Saddam then the imposition of Shi’a opportunity (al Maliki) who refused Sunni participation and all heall breaking loose and its unintended consequences.

    The pretense of sub Saharan hegemony amongst the new migrants of Europe does not match the present data visualization expressed by Media so I am at odds with this point of view. I just don’t see it when I watch the present new output.

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  • @Steve Sailer
    "Probably the biggest aid we give Africa is that most donated clothes than aren’t turned to rags and recycled go to Africa."

    In John Updike's 1978 novel "The Coup," the overthrown African dictator has one chance to get back in power by giving a big speech to rile up a mob, but he keeps getting distracted by incongruous t-shirts worn by impoverished members of the listening mob, such as a Salu warrior wearing a t-shirt promoting a "drug-scuttled rock band called Le Fuzz."

    Probably the biggest aid we give Africa is that most donated clothes than aren’t turned to rags and recycled go to Africa.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wN9BKpUhkaE

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  • @Former Darfur
    The obvious limiting factor to sub-Saharan growth: when whites die off, are browned out through interbreeding, or become racially conscious and stop the flow of white technology without white responsibility. It's going to get worse before it gets better, but because African blacks cannot sustain a level of civilization beyond the Stone Age, it is coming down and when it does the die off will be enormous.

    I'm guessing the Chinese have figured that out. They'll make Negroes an endangered species in Africa by the time they are done.

    That’s not quite fair- some peoples managed to get to the iron age.

    The Ethiopians and Somalis managed multiple durable iron-age kingdoms and city states. Granted, East Africans not Bantus. But sub Saharan all the same.

    The Nubians did at least as well with even less promising terrain. Ditto the Furs and some of the ancestral Chadian peoples. Sahelian, but not Arabs. Africans.

    Other examples just south of the desert [and excluding the Niger valley empires as ambiguous] would include the Yoruba town/city states, the Ashanti, the Kongo Kingdom, and whoever built Zimbabwe.

    None were exactly as intellectually sophisticated as Greece, Rome, Mesopotamia, or Egypt, or even as materially capable as the Celts. But they did some interesting work and used metal.

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  • This what the “migrants” bring:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/22/gatestone-institute-germanys-migrant-rape-epidemic/

    Germany’s Migrant Rape Epidemic

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  • I just realized a lot of people on this website are very negative.

    This could be the path to the end-game super human. A genetic shake up in hopes of creating the ultimate race. The strength and vigor of black people, the cunning and steadfastness of middle easterners and the intellect and progressiveness of white people all into one. A new race of people.

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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    Well it is certainly not the end of Africa .

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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    we are not talking about 1/3 mixed race people in Europe by 2100. We are talking about 90 % of the population which are of pure subsaharan African ancestry in Europe, India, China. And a small rest of mixed race people everywhere. That is not the end of the world. People then still will love, laugh, live. But it is the end of civilization. It means world wide life expectancy of maybe 30-40 years. No planes, no cars, no computers, no medicine, no modern agriculture, no electricity, no technology at all. And it is a unbelievable loss of human and cultural diversity.

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  • @Wilkey
    If you project the African population based on population growth from 2000-2015, Africa will have somewhere north of 7 billion people by AD 2100. That's well higher than the UN estimates of 4 billion or so. If anything, UN estimates are far too conservative.

    There is no way, of course, that Africa will have 7 billion people by 2100. The means by which they don't reach that number are a matter of intense interest, however. War, famine, disease, or genocide - which will it be?

    Note that when I say genocide, I don't mean nations or tribes of Africans killing each other - I mean Africans migrating out and killing the rest of us. Because at the current rate, if they did so we'd probably let them. That's how suicidal our dumbass leaders have become.

    Perhaps 150,000 years from now scientists will all be talking about how mankind evolved from a people who migrated out from Africa 150,000 years earlier and killed off the hominid populations already living in the other regions of the earth, occasionally raping or otherwise interbreeding with some of them and thus passing on a little of their DNA.

    maybe the fail to conquer some parts of melanesia or regions inhabited by australien aborigines, because those people might resist in the same way they get attacked. Also maybe in some parts of the Andes some small native villages might resist, the newcomers might not be so good adapted to the altitude, same in some regions in the Himalaya. So in 2300 there still might be some human diversity: 99 % Bantu, 1 percent Melanesian, Australian Aborigine, Tibetan and native American.

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  • @Steve Sailer
    Or both.

    Yeah, it’s both.

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  • @Ethniclear
    The reason there are so many young men among the ‘refugees’ is that they intend to bring over their families once securely settled.

    Maybe. But what they really want is a blond-haired, blue-eyed wife or baby mommy.

    Or both.

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    • Replies: @anon
    Yeah, it's both.
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  • @El-ahrairah
    The reason there are so many young men among the 'refugees' is that they intend to bring over their families once securely settled. Wives/children/parents will all follow later. So when calculating the full scale of these population movements you have to multiply by 4 at least.

    The reason there are so many young men among the ‘refugees’ is that they intend to bring over their families once securely settled.

    Maybe. But what they really want is a blond-haired, blue-eyed wife or baby mommy.

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    Or both.
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  • @Brutusale
    Yeah, well, the quality of those "white American females" having 2+ children may be a bit sketchy. The government paying for the Rachelle Bonds of the world to reproduce is beyond idiotic.

    http://heavy.com/news/2015/09/michael-mccarthy-rachelle-bond-bella-deer-island-baby-doe-identified-parents-arrest/

    The USA desperately needs more white babies. The tax code lacks sufficient incentive to encourage larger size white families. Same time the welfare system subsidizes undesirable out of wedlock, low income minority birth.

    We need to do much more to ensure there are sufficient financial benefits to encourage young white mothers with unwanted pregnancies to opt for adoption rather than abortion. There is large unmet demand for adoption of white babies.

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  • So my comment was deleted yet it says the “TRUTH”?

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  • @Max Payne
    You people talk as if the white-man hasn't dealt with these things before.... or worse... as if he doesn't have a plan to deal with it.

    When push comes to shove the white man will prop up a few dictators in some of the key African countries to tighten the borders. Give his troops some equipment and training (and in case a new dictator becomes unruly, implant a few officers within their military which can be used to overthrow the government in a crisis), and watch the migrants get culled.

    If that fails the white man will never cease to finance and support the worst human beings on the planet in the hopes an ISIL or Al-Qaeda-style militia can do the job.

    Some dictators can be tricked into attacking their neighbors, like Saddam with Kuwait, which will allow the West to intervene military and use up those bombs that were about hit their expiry date; in turn directly helping the military-industrial complex with jobs in replenishing those bombs. Wars in Africa are much more barbaric and bloody than those seen in the Middle East.

    It's Africa guys.... the US can drop a nuclear device right on Lagos and no one will care. Unless the oil in Nigeria becomes irradiated from the bombing... then it would be a crisis.

    On the bright side, with Africas rich soil and large area of arable land, the agri-business industry (probably fourth largest behind oil, auto, and military industries) can produce more food for the UK, EU, and sometimes even North America with the massive influx of new labor (cheaper than robots!). Never again will the EU rely on Russian grain. Never again will food be "out of season" in the UK.

    You don’t seem to have noticed that the western nations are ruled by traitors who are actively seeking the invasion of their respective countries. Nothing will be done unless they are removed.

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  • @Perplexed
    I wonder how many scientists there will be 150,000 years from now. There are more than 400 nuclear plants, plus a lot of waste, that have to be tended and safeguarded. Are Africans up to the task? We don't even seem to be. (Are people aware that nothing has been done to remediate Fukushima? No one seems to have a clue as to what *can* be done. And radiation makes people stupider.)

    Hey, if Homer Simpson can handle a job in a nuclear power plant, then any doofus from Afghanistan can do the same. However, if an Afghani were to replace Homer, I think Moe’s Tavern might see its business fall off dramatically.

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  • @Epaminondas
    Congratulations, Christian missionaries. You've done your work well. Your grandchildren are going to be so happy with the work you are doing.

    “Congratulations, Christian missionaries. You’ve done your work well. Your grandchildren are going to be so happy with the work you are doing.”

    Yeah, things would be so much better if they were all just Muslims and animists coming over. Because those guys are far less trouble. And who doesn’t love polygamy and slitting animals’ throats? What fun!!!

    It’s like I always say, turning America into Brazil is not quite enough — I’d much rather it’d turn into something more like the Muslim parts of Africa.

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  • The reason there are so many young men among the ‘refugees’ is that they intend to bring over their families once securely settled. Wives/children/parents will all follow later. So when calculating the full scale of these population movements you have to multiply by 4 at least.

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    • Replies: @Ethniclear
    The reason there are so many young men among the ‘refugees’ is that they intend to bring over their families once securely settled.

    Maybe. But what they really want is a blond-haired, blue-eyed wife or baby mommy.

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  • @Yak-15
    That's beyond stupid. Despite having no domestic defense industries, scientific research institutions or cohesive societies you believe that the ME armies will be able to outmuscle the Euros? That's a joke.

    It has been almost more than a 400 years since the ME or any ME country has been able to successfully challenge a European army. Even in their home countries the ME has not been able to stop any western style army. Why do you think the Israelis do so well?

    Even when overmatched with superior weapons and outnumbered while fighting a multi-front war, the Jews were able to soundly defeat the Arab armies. Multiple times...

    Even when overmatched with superior weapons and outnumbered while fighting a multi-front war, the Jews were able to soundly defeat the Arab armies. Multiple times…

    I didn’t know Hezbollah had superior weapons and outnumbered the IDF. It’s a good thing Israel defeated them….

    Arabs just suck at the modern way of warfare mostly stemming from poor leadership within the officer corp (chosen for their loyalty to the regime as opposed to tactical competence).

    They seem to be doing fine in what is described as the “fourth generation of modern warfare”. It also helps when modernized technology actually can get into the hand of Arab forces (such as the Kornet missile which made the Israelis berate/punish Russia for supplying them to Syria to begin with).

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  • You people talk as if the white-man hasn’t dealt with these things before…. or worse… as if he doesn’t have a plan to deal with it.

    When push comes to shove the white man will prop up a few dictators in some of the key African countries to tighten the borders. Give his troops some equipment and training (and in case a new dictator becomes unruly, implant a few officers within their military which can be used to overthrow the government in a crisis), and watch the migrants get culled.

    If that fails the white man will never cease to finance and support the worst human beings on the planet in the hopes an ISIL or Al-Qaeda-style militia can do the job.

    Some dictators can be tricked into attacking their neighbors, like Saddam with Kuwait, which will allow the West to intervene military and use up those bombs that were about hit their expiry date; in turn directly helping the military-industrial complex with jobs in replenishing those bombs. Wars in Africa are much more barbaric and bloody than those seen in the Middle East.

    It’s Africa guys…. the US can drop a nuclear device right on Lagos and no one will care. Unless the oil in Nigeria becomes irradiated from the bombing… then it would be a crisis.

    On the bright side, with Africas rich soil and large area of arable land, the agri-business industry (probably fourth largest behind oil, auto, and military industries) can produce more food for the UK, EU, and sometimes even North America with the massive influx of new labor (cheaper than robots!). Never again will the EU rely on Russian grain. Never again will food be “out of season” in the UK.

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    • Replies: @anon
    You don't seem to have noticed that the western nations are ruled by traitors who are actively seeking the invasion of their respective countries. Nothing will be done unless they are removed.
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  • @James Kabala
    This does not seem to be a very accurate description of Cardinal Robert Sarah, who is among the leaders of the fight to preserve traditional moral discipline within the Catholic Church:

    https://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/cardinal-sarah-fidelity-to-god-and-family-is-africas-most-precious-treasure/

    I am not naive enough to believe that your average African peasant is on the same page as the Cardinal. But there are quite a few African clergymen who are able to express traditional Christian doctrine on sex in an intelligent and articulate way. There was another one, a Presbyterian, in the latest issue of First Things. They must be getting their brains and their morals from somewhere.

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  • @Travis
    America is in a better situation, as white American females have a fertility rate slightly higher than Europeans and the fastest demographic group in America is hispanics christians, instead of muslims from the middle east. While France, Germany and England have a growing muslim population , which is already over 10% of their young people. The recent wave of muslims into Europe will be more destructive to Europeans than the immigrants from Latin America settling in America.

    Yeah, well, the quality of those “white American females” having 2+ children may be a bit sketchy. The government paying for the Rachelle Bonds of the world to reproduce is beyond idiotic.

    http://heavy.com/news/2015/09/michael-mccarthy-rachelle-bond-bella-deer-island-baby-doe-identified-parents-arrest/

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    • Replies: @Ethniclear
    The USA desperately needs more white babies. The tax code lacks sufficient incentive to encourage larger size white families. Same time the welfare system subsidizes undesirable out of wedlock, low income minority birth.

    We need to do much more to ensure there are sufficient financial benefits to encourage young white mothers with unwanted pregnancies to opt for adoption rather than abortion. There is large unmet demand for adoption of white babies.
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  • I’m confident you’ve seen this NYT piece discussing the Afghan (Muslim generally) predilection for pederasty: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/21/world/asia/us-soldiers-told-to-ignore-afghan-allies-abuse-of-boys.html?_r=2&referrer=

    The NYT admits it is common for Muslim men to sodomize boys and that our troops are ordered to overlook such behavior in the goodmuslims. Troops who fail to overlook the anal rape of young boys are quickly labeled badwhites and drummed out of the service like the subjects of above linked article. US military commanders declare that raping boys is a cultural practice which we must respect. The Times introduces to us terms like “bacha bazi” (“boy play”) which is occurring even on US military bases with the approval of our military leadership.

    Given the US Federal government is already condoning anal rape of young boys alongside murder of girls who are of such loose morals as to be rape victims, how long is it before approval of these “cultural” practices extends beyond US military bases and onto US civilian soil? And since this is a genuine part of Muslim culture, how can Europe be so racist as to oppose it? Just as law enforcement is prohibited from meddling in American Indian pot smoking and use of hallucinogens, will they be prohibited from interfering in the rape of children and murder of young girls? As long as the goodmuslims aren’t wearing explosive vests, we are badwhite racists to notice they have raped our nine year old sons.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin

    Assuming non-Mormons have a typical US fertility rate that would mean Mormons in Utah have about 3 children per mother. That is a very high rate for the West (although admittedly not African).
     
    Incidentally that would make it exact same as Israel's.

    The Israelis do have a high fertility rate for an industrialized country and their ultra-religious have an even higher fertility rate. Israel is an outlier but their example should mean that high intelligence, and industrialization of society do not have to mean a below replacement fertility rate. As for the Middle Eastern nations being poor at war, I will defer to all the military experts here. The muslims seem to be conquering Europe without a shot being fired though and that alone is impressive. But I do not believe that the UK or France or Germany have much of a military at all. If the Middle Eastern nations cannot cross the Med and invade, neither can Europe cross the Med and invade. France’s entire army (according to Wiki anyway) is 115,000 men. The Israeli standing army is larger than this and their trained reserves are four times this number. The Europeans are not what they used to be.

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  • If Africans want western aid they should be required to undergo sterilisation after their second child. If Africans cannot keep their loincloths down they can start learning how to provide for their surplus population.

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  • Congratulations, Christian missionaries. You’ve done your work well. Your grandchildren are going to be so happy with the work you are doing.

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    • Replies: @HA
    "Congratulations, Christian missionaries. You’ve done your work well. Your grandchildren are going to be so happy with the work you are doing."

    Yeah, things would be so much better if they were all just Muslims and animists coming over. Because those guys are far less trouble. And who doesn't love polygamy and slitting animals' throats? What fun!!!

    It's like I always say, turning America into Brazil is not quite enough -- I'd much rather it'd turn into something more like the Muslim parts of Africa.

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  • People who use ‘immigrants’ instead of the correct word ‘refugees’ to hide USG policy of regime change in the Middle East and Africa, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine ARE IGNORANT AND RACISTS. They don’t deserve more words.

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  • @tbraton
    You failed to cite a very interesting earlier paragraph, involving remarks made by the Nobel Literature Prize winner of 2002, a Hungarian Jewish survivor of the Holocaust:

    "It was one of the bitterest episodes of German-Hungarian squabbling over human rights since 2002, when Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor Imre Kertész won the Nobel Prize for literature. Hungarians resented it when Germans boasted of Kertész’s Berlin domicile as a sign of their country’s moral progress. Hungarians took this bragging for an assertion that their own country had not made such progress. Kertész, though, has made an appearance in the latest migrant controversy, and now it is Hungarians who want to cite him. In The Last Refuge, Kertész’s diaries of 2001-2009 (not translated into English), he wrote a few remarks on Muslim migration that have in recent weeks become staples of political websites, both moderate and extremist. “I would talk,” Kertész wrote,

    'about how the Muslims are invading, occupying—to put it bluntly, destroying—Europe, and about Europe’s attitude towards that. I would speak, too, about suicidal liberalism and dumb democracy, the kind of democracy that envisions giving chimpanzees the right to vote. [Note: Kertész is referring here to an actual proposal of animal-rights advocates, not likening any group of voters to animals.] This story always ends the same way: Civilization reaches a stage of overripeness where it can no longer defend itself and doesn’t even particularly care to, where, for reasons that are hard to understand, it comes to idolize its own enemies. And, which is worse, where none of this can be said openly.' "

    I guess the only people in Europe who still retain complete freedom of speech are Jews. It also helps if you can claim to be a Holocaust survivor.

    I guess the only people in Europe who still retain complete freedom of speech are Jews. It also helps if you can claim to be a Holocaust survivor.

    Whether something you say is acceptable despite going against the mainstream or not is governed by two factors.

    1. Does saying it benefit you, your interests or those connected to you? (Altruism card.)

    2. How much of a historical victim you can claim to be. (Victim card.)

    In this case he can play, very appropriately, the holocaust victim card and the altruism card.

    Of course the victim card forces those around you to agree or lose their altruism card. And the mainstream is actually the result of this game in the first place.

    Also, it is not whether you are an actual victim or actually altruistic just if you can be perceived as such.

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  • @cwhatfuture
    Why do you or anyone assume Europe will always be ahead of the Middle East militarily? Outside of Russia, Europe spends very little on defense and still relies on the US to ensure their safety. They could not handle an air campaign in Libya without US support. Middle Eastern nations spend vast amounts on their militaries, and have tank and aircraft fleets far larger than the European nations. France has 400 tanks but Pakistan and Egypt, 10 times as many. Quantity has a quality all its own. The Middle Eastern and North African pool of young men 18-25 is larger than Europe's and the discrepancy is growing. And I am not so sure the technical gap is as large as we think. Without investment into military technologies, and with Russia and western firms willing to sell Muslim nations virtually anything, why should we assume any great technical gap in force capability as the militaries stand now? The EU spends between 1 and 2% of GDP on their militaries. Saudi Arabia spends 10%, Oman 11%, UAE almost 6%. The New York City police force is stronger than some European militaries. Israel and the United States are the only two Western nations (if you consider Israel western) to spend heavily on defense as a percent of GDP. Even the UK only spends 2%. The EU is a paper tiger militarily.

    Any of the big 3 European powers – UK, France, Germany – is more militarily powerful than any Middle Eastern country. Counting beans or tanks isn’t very useful since those Egyptian tanks aren’t going to swim across the Mediterranean and even if they are they’re going to be crewed by incompetent and unmotivated conscripts. You need to remember to account for the fact that Arabs suck at fighting (at least in the service of nation states).

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  • @cwhatfuture
    Mormons are only 60% of Utah's population. Assuming non-Mormons have a typical US fertility rate that would mean Mormons in Utah have about 3 children per mother. That is a very high rate for the West (although admittedly not African). This though has come down considerably from the recent past. In the 1970s the average Mormon woman in Utah had between 4 and 5 children. And this still does not answer why Ashkenazi Jews had in Europe (pre-war) an "African" level of fertility. To this day the average religious Ashkenazi Jewish woman in Israel has 6.5 children. This is far higher than the average African American fertility rate.

    Assuming non-Mormons have a typical US fertility rate that would mean Mormons in Utah have about 3 children per mother. That is a very high rate for the West (although admittedly not African).

    Incidentally that would make it exact same as Israel’s.

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    • Replies: @cwhatfuture
    The Israelis do have a high fertility rate for an industrialized country and their ultra-religious have an even higher fertility rate. Israel is an outlier but their example should mean that high intelligence, and industrialization of society do not have to mean a below replacement fertility rate. As for the Middle Eastern nations being poor at war, I will defer to all the military experts here. The muslims seem to be conquering Europe without a shot being fired though and that alone is impressive. But I do not believe that the UK or France or Germany have much of a military at all. If the Middle Eastern nations cannot cross the Med and invade, neither can Europe cross the Med and invade. France's entire army (according to Wiki anyway) is 115,000 men. The Israeli standing army is larger than this and their trained reserves are four times this number. The Europeans are not what they used to be.
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  • @B.A
    To expect either self-restraint or intelligence (or in fact any long-term future plans being devised) by Africans is unfortunately nothing other than wishful thinking.
    .
    They do not plan, they do not learn, they act on impulses for selfish ends. They cannot plan. They cannot learn. It is beyond their collective cognitive capacity.
    .
    Even when they are (and have been) handed everything on a plate, including fully functioning first world states, they can't sustain it. It ought to be extremely embarrassing for them and embarrassing that they still have to flock to the white-man to live under their rule in Europe.
    .
    They will continue to expand, sucking at the teats of the western world in order to do so, whilst simultaneously moving to Europe to strangle and snuff out the goose that has always laid their golden eggs.
    .
    But they don't care if millions of them die in starvation, or whether we Europeans are gone. They think for the here and now, for their own selfish needs in the here and now, and will probably blame any bad things that happen as being a result of their ineptitude on the white man and/or some kind of bad "juju".
    .
    Science, progress, orderliness, cleanliness, will be wiped aside (along with Europeans) and the planet will be thrown into a new dark age, quite literally, of complete ignoramuses who don't even realise the extent of what ignoramuses they are.

    This does not seem to be a very accurate description of Cardinal Robert Sarah, who is among the leaders of the fight to preserve traditional moral discipline within the Catholic Church:

    https://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/cardinal-sarah-fidelity-to-god-and-family-is-africas-most-precious-treasure/

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    • Replies: @James Kabala
    I am not naive enough to believe that your average African peasant is on the same page as the Cardinal. But there are quite a few African clergymen who are able to express traditional Christian doctrine on sex in an intelligent and articulate way. There was another one, a Presbyterian, in the latest issue of First Things. They must be getting their brains and their morals from somewhere.
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  • lool, nazis. The fear of the black planet.

    the earth belongs to the blackman (hueman)

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  • @anon

    but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong.
     
    All the white liberals I know go into spasms at the idea of white people telling black people to have fewer kids.

    Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning.
     
    It may be different among the billionaires - I've never looked into it - but that begs the question family planning where - Africa or White people?

    If it's only white people then it reinforces the original point.
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  • anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    You people do realize this will mean a mass extinction event occurring in Africa, right?

    Yes, a lot of us do. And we wonder where all the save the whales people are on this one. Then we remember the story of the Sierra Club in California. Yes sir, no connection between immigration and the environment!

    It mostly wasn’t about the environment or immigration, was it? Just another Front in the Cause, I suppose.

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  • Clearly the answer is for whites in Europe, Australia and the Americas to quit breeding completely to make room for the expanding population of Mother Africa. It is the least you can do, making room for your betters. Or something.

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  • @anon

    but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong.
     
    All the white liberals I know go into spasms at the idea of white people telling black people to have fewer kids.

    Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning.
     
    It may be different among the billionaires - I've never looked into it - but that begs the question family planning where - Africa or White people?

    If it's only white people then it reinforces the original point.

    To his fellow congressmen Bush the elder was known as ‘Rubbers Bush’ because of his enthusiasm for population control.

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  • anon • Disclaimer says:

    There seems to be an idea that what will happen is all hypothetical but it’s not. There are already chunks of western Europe where the majority are from these countries and anyone with open eyes can see what those areas are like.

    IQ is actually not the biggest problem imo (although it is a problem). The biggest problem is they have absolutely no interest in the public sphere. Their own homes may be spotless and their own businesses well run but they *do not care* at all about the space outside of their own close kin.

    This leads to mass corruption, welfare fraud, importing illegal immigrants to undercut competitors, electoral fraud etc and this leads to a generalized decay in the public space constantly revamped by liberals with money from outside but always back to decay again a second after the revamp is finished

    This would be obvious to everyone by now if the media didn’t hide it.

    The phrase that sums up the difference is “what if everyone did that?”

    For some reason a significant number among one group of people have that phrase etched into their DNA somehow and other groups either don’t or in too small a frequency.

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  • anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world?

    You might be making a blank slate assumption that the only thing that changes is the race of the people and that Europeans will thus be more ‘connected’. But all those people will be related to other people, other people outside Europe. There’s no reason to believe that the change will just be racial.

    Why would people not remain partially loyal to their partial ancestry? And to all their current conflicts? What will connect partial West Africans to partial Iraqis, Afghans, Bengalis? The won’t all just think of themselves as ‘mixed’. History suggests that often the leaders of ethnic movements are only partially of the relevant ethnicity. So it sounds like it might be one big Northern Ireland, with a lot more tribes and animosities. Why won’t it all become tribal? Wonderful social planning.

    Low-trust societies might exist because of a genetic component (or lack of a component). A significant part of the success of the West might result from a high-trust genetic inheritance. Low-trust societies, the type of place where cousin marriages are high, as Steve sometimes writes about, do not seem inherently “progressive” (in the general sense). Indeed, just the reverse. They seem like a constant war of all against all. How do you know that a 1/3 low-trust genetic contribution is not enough to destroy the high-trust basis on which the West depends? I don’t know that it will, either, or that a genetic basis even exists. But it’s incumbent on you to find out and prove your assumption that it doesn’t, before you gamble the entire future on what may be nothing more than a confused muddle of a plan based on feelings.

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    • Replies: @jack shindo
    Some great points but it is only in Europe (to "native" Europeans) will this be racial, due to that heritage of colonialism. Since Europe has tended to be homogenous as opposed to the heterogenous nature of Islam (despite cultural, social and geographical considerations), most of said new mixed groups will indeed fall onto their non European designation as is the informal rule.

    A mixed heritage person is a mixed heritage person! Within democracy, the absolute should be behaviour of self or others within the milieu as opposed to the colour spectrum usually espoused by Eurocentric ideals based on laws to marginalize said "minorities".

    The literature of mestizaje is an excellent background and will serves as basis of understanding but that will change due to how this mestizaje plays out in the European environment.
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  • anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Cwhatfuture
    Lowering African and Middle Eastern birth rates is only one part of the solution. The other part is how to raise the birth rate among the Europeans. This seems to be an even harder problem. Hitler actually managed to do this in Germany, pre-war, by banning abortions and paying cash to those who had extra children. In the pre-pill days, banning abortions worked. The US birthrate after the war climbed but I do not understand why this happened or if it could happen again.

    This seems to be an even harder problem.

    How do you know it is hard when it has never been tried?

    (except by Israel and Putin where it worked)

    Despite the constant refrain from the media that low birth rates are a terrible problem they have *never* suggested policies to increase low white birth rates only more immigration, always more immigration.

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    • Replies: @cwhatfuture
    I say it is hard because the rate keeps getting lower, although everyone says it needs to be higher. I did note that Germany prior to WW2 and the USA post WW2, both significantly raised their birth rates. Germany did it primarilly by banning abortion. Israel and Russia, as you note, have done it as well and Israel seems to have done it over the long term. I wish the US could raise its native birth rate but how to do this is still not clear to me. If there were easily identifiable policies, someone should have pointed them out. If you can suggest, or anyone can suggest how this can be done, I am all ears.
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  • anon • Disclaimer says:
    @James Kabala
    I don't agree with Cody's anti-Christian obiter dicta, but I agree that Steve's repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong. Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning. Buffett in particular is obsessed with the issue and at one point announced his intention to leave his entire fortune to family planning initiatives. I don't know if he still adheres to that plan, but he has already donated considerable amounts of money to such endeavors.

    but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong.

    All the white liberals I know go into spasms at the idea of white people telling black people to have fewer kids.

    Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning.

    It may be different among the billionaires – I’ve never looked into it – but that begs the question family planning where – Africa or White people?

    If it’s only white people then it reinforces the original point.

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    • Replies: @Sean
    To his fellow congressmen Bush the elder was known as 'Rubbers Bush' because of his enthusiasm for population control.
    , @James Kabala
    Some of these links are in favor of population control, others against, but they all seem to agree on the same basic facts (although one does claim that Gates has lately moved away from funding contraception directly, which I had not heard before, but still says that population control is his overall aim).

    http://www.ippf.org/our-work/where-we-work/africa

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2011/11/02/the-second-coming-of-bill-gates/

    http://www.lifenews.com/2014/03/05/warren-buffet-spends-millions-funding-abortions/

    http://humanevents.com/2006/07/10/gatesbuffett-marriage-designed-not-to-bear-fruit/

    http://www.onenewsnow.com/pro-life/2014/05/16/billionaires-think-theyre-helping-end-poverty-in-africa-but

    http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2009/05/26/billionaires-try-to-shrink-worlds-population-report-says/

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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    Yes it is the end of the world.

    Get back to us when you see Jews marrying average 85 IQ people or inviting millions of them to settle in Israel.

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  • You people do realize this will mean a mass extinction event occurring in Africa, right? Its something that is happening right now, and will get worse the more people are born. The species that go extinct will never exist again, in the history of the universe (to put it dramatically).
    Its happening right now, with species like pygmy hippos about to disappear due to hunting (for food) and due to uncontrolled deforestation.

    Someone mentioned Haiti in the comments. This is exactly what happened in Haiti, the environment was completely and absolutely destroyed, to the point where all forests were consumed, pretty much to the very last tree.

    They ate up all natural resources like locusts.

    Biodiversity is going to be irreversibly destroyed in Africa if the rest of the world doesn’t go there right now and makes them wear condoms until they reach a birth rate that allows for the population to shrink.
    It needs to happen. Its a continent out of control.

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  • @Cody
    Steve, if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa (and for that matter, everywhere in the world. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    I don’t agree with Cody’s anti-Christian obiter dicta, but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong. Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning. Buffett in particular is obsessed with the issue and at one point announced his intention to leave his entire fortune to family planning initiatives. I don’t know if he still adheres to that plan, but he has already donated considerable amounts of money to such endeavors.

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    • Replies: @anon

    but I agree that Steve’s repeatedly expressed belief that liberals are against birth control in Africa is a rare case where he seems to be be just plain wrong.
     
    All the white liberals I know go into spasms at the idea of white people telling black people to have fewer kids.

    Liberal billionaires such as Gates, Bloomberg, Buffett, Turner, and of course Soros are all major funders of international family planning.
     
    It may be different among the billionaires - I've never looked into it - but that begs the question family planning where - Africa or White people?

    If it's only white people then it reinforces the original point.
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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    If European whites interbreed with 70 IQ blacks and 85 IQ Arab Muslims whose cultures are totally antithetical to Western Civ. The end product will be mulattoes that are morons and whose culture will not be European but Muslim.

    It would mean the end of Europe and civilization.

    BTW if the expected influx of Muslims occurs and there is no effort to stop it, Europe will be lost within a decade.

    Nobody by then will care about whether the Europeans are white either, they’ll be to busy dealing with Jihadis who are trying to kill them.

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  • @cwhatfuture
    Why do you or anyone assume Europe will always be ahead of the Middle East militarily? Outside of Russia, Europe spends very little on defense and still relies on the US to ensure their safety. They could not handle an air campaign in Libya without US support. Middle Eastern nations spend vast amounts on their militaries, and have tank and aircraft fleets far larger than the European nations. France has 400 tanks but Pakistan and Egypt, 10 times as many. Quantity has a quality all its own. The Middle Eastern and North African pool of young men 18-25 is larger than Europe's and the discrepancy is growing. And I am not so sure the technical gap is as large as we think. Without investment into military technologies, and with Russia and western firms willing to sell Muslim nations virtually anything, why should we assume any great technical gap in force capability as the militaries stand now? The EU spends between 1 and 2% of GDP on their militaries. Saudi Arabia spends 10%, Oman 11%, UAE almost 6%. The New York City police force is stronger than some European militaries. Israel and the United States are the only two Western nations (if you consider Israel western) to spend heavily on defense as a percent of GDP. Even the UK only spends 2%. The EU is a paper tiger militarily.

    That’s beyond stupid. Despite having no domestic defense industries, scientific research institutions or cohesive societies you believe that the ME armies will be able to outmuscle the Euros? That’s a joke.

    It has been almost more than a 400 years since the ME or any ME country has been able to successfully challenge a European army. Even in their home countries the ME has not been able to stop any western style army. Why do you think the Israelis do so well?

    Even when overmatched with superior weapons and outnumbered while fighting a multi-front war, the Jews were able to soundly defeat the Arab armies. Multiple times…

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    • Replies: @Max Payne

    Even when overmatched with superior weapons and outnumbered while fighting a multi-front war, the Jews were able to soundly defeat the Arab armies. Multiple times…
     
    I didn't know Hezbollah had superior weapons and outnumbered the IDF. It's a good thing Israel defeated them....

    Arabs just suck at the modern way of warfare mostly stemming from poor leadership within the officer corp (chosen for their loyalty to the regime as opposed to tactical competence).

    They seem to be doing fine in what is described as the "fourth generation of modern warfare". It also helps when modernized technology actually can get into the hand of Arab forces (such as the Kornet missile which made the Israelis berate/punish Russia for supplying them to Syria to begin with).
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  • @Bill B.
    Caldwell on Merkel's Boner:

    The big danger ever since this migration got underway is that it would get stopped up somewhere. The day after Germany closed its border with Austria, there were 20,000 migrants stuck in the Austrian villages of Nickelsdorf and Heiligenkreuz. And the further south you go, the fewer resources residents have to give the travelers a welcome. The migrants are largely young men from rough, tough parts of the Muslim world. There is now a queue of them that stretches all the way east to Bangladesh and beyond, and deep down into sub-Saharan Africa. People have sold cattle, abandoned houses, robbed employers, left wives and children, and burned all sorts of bridges to come. There are now hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of them. Many are war-hardened. They are looking for money, food, and female companionship, and they are convinced that Europeans are gullible sissies. This is where Frau Merkel’s Willkommenskultur has led: With the impending closure of the Croatian border, hundreds of thousands of young Muslim men are about to hit a brick wall in Serbia. Serbia!

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/europe-gets-borders_1032567.html?nopager=1

    You failed to cite a very interesting earlier paragraph, involving remarks made by the Nobel Literature Prize winner of 2002, a Hungarian Jewish survivor of the Holocaust:

    “It was one of the bitterest episodes of German-Hungarian squabbling over human rights since 2002, when Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor Imre Kertész won the Nobel Prize for literature. Hungarians resented it when Germans boasted of Kertész’s Berlin domicile as a sign of their country’s moral progress. Hungarians took this bragging for an assertion that their own country had not made such progress. Kertész, though, has made an appearance in the latest migrant controversy, and now it is Hungarians who want to cite him. In The Last Refuge, Kertész’s diaries of 2001-2009 (not translated into English), he wrote a few remarks on Muslim migration that have in recent weeks become staples of political websites, both moderate and extremist. “I would talk,” Kertész wrote,

    ‘about how the Muslims are invading, occupying—to put it bluntly, destroying—Europe, and about Europe’s attitude towards that. I would speak, too, about suicidal liberalism and dumb democracy, the kind of democracy that envisions giving chimpanzees the right to vote. [Note: Kertész is referring here to an actual proposal of animal-rights advocates, not likening any group of voters to animals.] This story always ends the same way: Civilization reaches a stage of overripeness where it can no longer defend itself and doesn’t even particularly care to, where, for reasons that are hard to understand, it comes to idolize its own enemies. And, which is worse, where none of this can be said openly.’ ”

    I guess the only people in Europe who still retain complete freedom of speech are Jews. It also helps if you can claim to be a Holocaust survivor.

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    • Replies: @Deduction

    I guess the only people in Europe who still retain complete freedom of speech are Jews. It also helps if you can claim to be a Holocaust survivor.
     
    Whether something you say is acceptable despite going against the mainstream or not is governed by two factors.

    1. Does saying it benefit you, your interests or those connected to you? (Altruism card.)

    2. How much of a historical victim you can claim to be. (Victim card.)

    In this case he can play, very appropriately, the holocaust victim card and the altruism card.

    Of course the victim card forces those around you to agree or lose their altruism card. And the mainstream is actually the result of this game in the first place.

    Also, it is not whether you are an actual victim or actually altruistic just if you can be perceived as such.
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  • anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world?

    I assume you would agree that if the entire world resembled Haiti that would not be a good thing. (Nothing personal implied to Haitians, I am sure there are many fine and intelligent Haitians, but you have to take the numbers game into account. And a lot of the intelligent Haitians probably realize that their best bet for high social status and power is to become something like a Voodo priest or crime lord.)

    If the entire world was similar to Haiti, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. But it very well might be the end of Western Civilization, the ideas of the Enlightenment, the advancement of science, etc.. Could a world-of-Haiti really sustain the modern medical and drug research complex?

    Where do you draw the line and how do you know? Perhaps 1/3 is fine but at 1/2 a tipping point is reached and it becomes a race to the bottom as the brutish dominate society. Perhaps integrated US high schools are a good example. There are clearly tipping points and they can be reached and happen faster than expected. And can you go back? Or is it a one-way path? US high school history suggests it’s a one-way path.

    And why should it stop? Once it reaches 1/3, why won’t it reach 1/2? Then why won’t it reach 3/4? Once it was larger than 1/2, you would expect the replacement rate to accelerate, as more voters vote against the shrinking white majority.

    Also, if race doesn’t matter, what is the problem with Europe being 100% of a single race? Race doesn’t exist, right? So it wouldn’t make any difference. But perhaps it is that race really does matter, but it’s anti-white racism that is the modern creed? That your position is an extreme racist position (arguing for race-replacment); essentially your position is the pro-genocide position. People who argue for genocide should expect aggressive pushback.

    I think you are also assuming that mixing is kind of like mixing paint. It’s not, it’s a lot more non-linear. So you would probably see something like Mexico, where once you get over, say, 60% to 70% non-white, people who appear white by the luck of genetics will be favored over those who don’t. Mexico is extremely race-conscious and racist, with whites being the top of the pyramid. You might very well build a much more racist world with you worldwide integration plan.

    Why do you think that if you have your way the world will end up what you assume? You have to take into account the Turkish Harem effect. What you suggest has in some places been tried due to war, conquest, and white slavery. Once whites are below, say, 5% of the population, the elite will tend to preferentially marry white women. (It may be that rare genetic types are often found more attractive.) A few generations of this and the elite will be genetically much more white than the general population. So you end up with a white caste lording it over a sea of brown or black. Do you think this would be a good thing?

    Imperial Harem:

    “…For the perpetuation and service of the Ottoman Dynasty, beautiful and intelligent slave girls were either captured in war (mainly Christian Europeans in the Balkans), recruited…, or procured…”

    Sultanate of Women:

    “…the nearly 130-year period during the 16th and 17th centuries when the women of the Imperial Harem of the Ottoman Empire exerted extraordinary political influence over state matters and over the (male) Ottoman sultan… …Most of these women were of slave origin…”

    So many of these women running the Ottoman Empire during this period probably looked pretty much like President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.

    Here’s an interesting article from 1894:

    “THE CIRCASSIAN SLAVE IN TURKISH HAREMS.”, Mrs. ELLEN BATTELLE DIETRICK, Popular Science Monthly, Volume 44, February 1894:

    “…ONE of the curious anomalies of history is found in the existence of a race whose men are characterized by a passionate love of freedom… but whose women habitually accept slavery as the most desirable of earthly conditions. No more thrilling story of spirited resistance to an invader can be found than that of the long struggle of Circassia against the persistently encroaching Slav. After forty years of continual warfare, overwhelmed by Russia’s superior wealth and numbers… deserted en masse… to take refuge in Turkey. Yet; from the time Circassia was first known to Europe, it has been the regular custom of these independence-loving, self-governing mountaineers to sell the sisters and daughters whose beauty has given chief fame to the name of Circassian; and, difficult as it may be for an American generation reared to abhor slavery to credit the statement, the testimony that these beautiful Circassians gladly accept, and even hasten to meet, their sale is too universal for doubt upon this point. The mystery, however, is largely solved when we learn that to the women of Circassia slavery and marriage are purely synonymous terms.

    To them slavery has meant an exchange from a laborious life of poverty in the mountains to that of ease and luxury as a wife — either chief or secondary — in a city harem. To the Turk, Circassian slavery has meant purchasing a wife… (the sultans never thus distinguish any woman), and thus obtaining one or more companions who will… be more obedient and contented in that capacity than any one he might secure from among the women of his own blood and rank…

    A Turkish woman of to-day writes: “Formerly a Turk rarely married his countrywoman… he would marry a Circassian slave, and give his sister to a Circassian man slave, or to some penniless Circassian subaltern in the Turkish army. This was caused by the innate love of power existing in both sexes.

    …the motives which probably animate each of the many maidens of Circassia… Each believes that it is she who may find grace and favor in the royal crown, and thus control at will the rise or fall of the royal scepter. But even if not chosen by royalty, those who purchase the beautiful damsels of Circassia are the wealthy and titled; and not the slightest social degradation is attached to their position, even when taken to harems wherein a Turkish wife may be installed as head of the household. The common dependence of all the inmates of a harem upon the favor of a lord who may at any time elevate the Circassian slave to the position of a lady fosters a spirit of equality of pure, practical democracy…

    …The first step after purchasing a Circassian girl is to give her… a special retinue of personal slaves, brought from Africa, who relieve her henceforward of the slightest necessity of unpleasant exertion.

    [Circassian beauties] [A Circassian commemoration] [Circassian girl]

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  • But what caused the population increase? OUR medicine, OUR education, OUR sanitation, OUR aid. WE HAVE to stop helping these people breed us out of significance.

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  • @Steve Sailer
    And the U.S. Navy successfully blockades most Haitian boat migrants.

    It's really not all that difficult to prevent The Camp of the Saints, if you feel up to it. That was kind of Raspail's point.

    Didn’t Clinton have a boner that got a bunch of Haitans killed, and forcing him to rethink the whole “we’ll take everyone” plan?

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  • @Priss Factor
    Only way the West can survive is by breaking the fear-of-'racism' BS. People must accept the truth of race-ism. Unless the mind is saved, the body cannot be saved.

    Also, let's look at the lessons of WWII, the Good War.
    After the war, for the sake of greater peace, Germans in non-German lands were uprooted and sent to Germany. There's been peace in Europe ever since. The only war zone was Yugoslavia because of demographics and diversity across regions.

    So, peace is built on solid borders, not allowing tons of people to invade in the name of 'humanitarianism'.

    ” The only war zone was Yugoslavia because of demographics and diversity across regions.”

    That underscores not only the insanity of the European leaders but their ignorance even of recent history. The two largest constituent republics of Yugoslavia were Serbia and Croatia, both Slavic peoples of the same ethnic stock. They spoke the same language (called Serbo-Croatian when Yugoslavia was whole), and the only major difference was that the Serbs used the Cyrillac alphabet while the Croats used the Latin alphabet when writing. The other major difference is that the Serbs are mostly Eastern Orthodox while the Croats are mostly Roman Catholic. If such closely related people speaking a nearly identical language and believing in such closely related Christian religions can’t get along, why would the European leaders such as Frau Merkel think that European peoples can absorb large populations of Middle Easterners and Africans that are mostly Muslim? With respect to the latter point, don’t those leaders remember what happened in Kosovo less than 20 years ago? The Serbs were fighting with the Kosovar Albanian Muslims for control of an area that has historically been part of Serbia.

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  • Lowering African and Middle Eastern birth rates is only one part of the solution. The other part is how to raise the birth rate among the Europeans. This seems to be an even harder problem. Hitler actually managed to do this in Germany, pre-war, by banning abortions and paying cash to those who had extra children. In the pre-pill days, banning abortions worked. The US birthrate after the war climbed but I do not understand why this happened or if it could happen again.

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    • Replies: @anon

    This seems to be an even harder problem.
     
    How do you know it is hard when it has never been tried?

    (except by Israel and Putin where it worked)

    Despite the constant refrain from the media that low birth rates are a terrible problem they have *never* suggested policies to increase low white birth rates only more immigration, always more immigration.
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  • @tbraton
    I think you should do a separate graph closer to home. Compare the populations of Mexico (13.6 million in 1900, around 120 million today (not counting the millions living in the U.S.)) and the U.S. (76 million in 1900, around 330 million today).

    Someone else posted about the population of Egypt. I would point out that Algeria’s population has grown from 4.7 million in 1901 to about 39.2 million in 2013. BTW Egypt’s population has grown from in 9.6 million in 1897 to around 84 million in 2013.

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  • To expect either self-restraint or intelligence (or in fact any long-term future plans being devised) by Africans is unfortunately nothing other than wishful thinking.
    .
    They do not plan, they do not learn, they act on impulses for selfish ends. They cannot plan. They cannot learn. It is beyond their collective cognitive capacity.
    .
    Even when they are (and have been) handed everything on a plate, including fully functioning first world states, they can’t sustain it. It ought to be extremely embarrassing for them and embarrassing that they still have to flock to the white-man to live under their rule in Europe.
    .
    They will continue to expand, sucking at the teats of the western world in order to do so, whilst simultaneously moving to Europe to strangle and snuff out the goose that has always laid their golden eggs.
    .
    But they don’t care if millions of them die in starvation, or whether we Europeans are gone. They think for the here and now, for their own selfish needs in the here and now, and will probably blame any bad things that happen as being a result of their ineptitude on the white man and/or some kind of bad “juju”.
    .
    Science, progress, orderliness, cleanliness, will be wiped aside (along with Europeans) and the planet will be thrown into a new dark age, quite literally, of complete ignoramuses who don’t even realise the extent of what ignoramuses they are.

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    • Replies: @James Kabala
    This does not seem to be a very accurate description of Cardinal Robert Sarah, who is among the leaders of the fight to preserve traditional moral discipline within the Catholic Church:

    https://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/cardinal-sarah-fidelity-to-god-and-family-is-africas-most-precious-treasure/

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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    Idiotic statement, while Spaniards and Portuguese have some sub-Saharan ancestry (at very low levels, about 1% on average according to one of Razib Khan’s recent posts; Sicilians apparently have even less), it’s not like they’re visibly non-white in general.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Subsaharan Africans regard Syrians as being ‘whites’.

    When the next big conflict in Africa kicks off, black Africans will see the precedent now being set in Europe and will *demand* equivalent treatment from Europeans. They will play the ‘ace’ card of all ‘human rights and equalities’ bullshit, namely ‘racism’, if they do not get equivalent treatment.
    Of course the EU will cave in to them.

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  • I remember when the ‘Arab spring’ first stirred.
    Steve, back then was unconvinced of the seismic implications. I remember Steve posting that we should be more concerned with instability and murderous violence in Mexico.
    I remember putting in a post disagreeing with Steve.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Agriculture productivity is growing slowly in Africa. Maybe 1.5%. But this still means its growing and therefore capable of hosting population increase. There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.

    The point is that nothing on this scale and magnitude has ever been witnessed before in recorded an unrecorded human history.
    Knowing full well the character and behavior of subsaharan Africans – think Biafra, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, South Africa etc, then no reasonable person can think that thus will work out well.
    The Chinese can just about manage with 1.5 billion, what with all their famed discipline, hard work, intelligence, planning and forbearance.

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  • @Anonymous
    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

    Yep.

    And Puerto Rico, Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, or the Dominican Republic etc are such great places to live.

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  • @Anonymous
    Actually, the demographics of white Americans are just as bad.

    America is in a better situation, as white American females have a fertility rate slightly higher than Europeans and the fastest demographic group in America is hispanics christians, instead of muslims from the middle east. While France, Germany and England have a growing muslim population , which is already over 10% of their young people. The recent wave of muslims into Europe will be more destructive to Europeans than the immigrants from Latin America settling in America.

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    • Replies: @Brutusale
    Yeah, well, the quality of those "white American females" having 2+ children may be a bit sketchy. The government paying for the Rachelle Bonds of the world to reproduce is beyond idiotic.

    http://heavy.com/news/2015/09/michael-mccarthy-rachelle-bond-bella-deer-island-baby-doe-identified-parents-arrest/
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  • anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Globus Pallidus XI
    It should be noted that much of this population explosion has, as usual, been by design.

    The Iraqi population explosion was by design: see “Sanctioning Saddam: The Politics of Intervention in Iraq”, by Sarah Graham Brown.

    The Syrian population explosion was by design. The government deliberately engineered a massive population explosion. They even made the sale and possession of contraceptives a crime! (See “Demographic Developments and Population: Policies in Ba’thist Syria (Demographic Developments and Socioeconomics)”, by Onn Winkler).

    After the Iranian Mullahs took power, they also engineered a population explosion: but rapidly backed off as the resultant poverty started to make Iran unstable. But now they have decided to ignite a population explosion yet again…

    South Africa used massive immigration from the rest of Africa to create a population explosion (and no, migration does not just move people around, it maximizes population growth). All those black African popular protests? Forget what you read about in the papers: it was mostly against all those black migrants from the rest of Africa! (really! you can look it up in wikipedia, so it must be true!)

    Of course the recent population explosion of the United States is also be government plan.

    I could go on for pages like this.

    But somehow the fact that population explosions are so often the result of elite policy, gets very little press. You would think that the elites had something to be ashamed of.

    But somehow the fact that population explosions are so often the result of elite policy, gets very little press.

    You bring up an important point. The developed countries have suppressed their birth rates by making contraception and abortion accessible and cheap. It’s promoted feminism which also works to lower birth rates and propaganda about ‘population bombs’ has been disseminated. Why get tied down with children when one can fulfill themselves with vacations and eating at fancy restaurants, and so on, is an idea that’s been popularized.

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  • @Clyde

    There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.
     
    African population densities are not that high. For comparison Haiti is at 376 people per sq kilometer and keeps chugging along with lots of foreign aid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_population_density
    Examples:
    Côte d'Ivoire ____52 per sq kilometer (Ivory Coast)
    Burkina Faso ____46 per sq kilometer (Formerly called the Republic of Upper Volta)
    Tanzania ____ 39 per sq kilometer

    And the U.S. Navy successfully blockades most Haitian boat migrants.

    It’s really not all that difficult to prevent The Camp of the Saints, if you feel up to it. That was kind of Raspail’s point.

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    • Replies: @AnAnon
    Didn't Clinton have a boner that got a bunch of Haitans killed, and forcing him to rethink the whole "we'll take everyone" plan?
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  • There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.

    African population densities are not that high. For comparison Haiti is at 376 people per sq kilometer and keeps chugging along with lots of foreign aid.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_population_density

    Examples:
    Côte d’Ivoire ____52 per sq kilometer (Ivory Coast)
    Burkina Faso ____46 per sq kilometer (Formerly called the Republic of Upper Volta)
    Tanzania ____ 39 per sq kilometer

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    And the U.S. Navy successfully blockades most Haitian boat migrants.

    It's really not all that difficult to prevent The Camp of the Saints, if you feel up to it. That was kind of Raspail's point.

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  • I wrote something about the “migrant crisis” recently, after looking into the UN world population data: http://londoner1983.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-migration-crisis-where-will-it-end.html The potential numbers of economic migrants, illegal immigrants, or refugees are so large that it is difficult to see how Europe could possibly retain its ethnic and cultural identity over the long-term with its current ultra-liberal approach to migration. In the UK we are told we will only be accepting 20k Syrian “refugees”, but this will undoubtedly increase and is on top of record-high levels of legal immigration that our “conservative” government is inflicting on us!

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Veracitor
    Does the UN population forecast take agricultural productivity into account, or is it just a projection of birth rates assuming unlimited resources?

    Agriculture productivity is growing slowly in Africa. Maybe 1.5%. But this still means its growing and therefore capable of hosting population increase. There is a difference between people not living well and crashing into a wall. People here on the basis of imagination and prejudice just assume there is a wall that Africans will crash into and disaster will follow. No evidence points to this, everything shows that Africa can grow but the standard of living wont improve much, keeping pace with population growth.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    The point is that nothing on this scale and magnitude has ever been witnessed before in recorded an unrecorded human history.
    Knowing full well the character and behavior of subsaharan Africans - think Biafra, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, South Africa etc, then no reasonable person can think that thus will work out well.
    The Chinese can just about manage with 1.5 billion, what with all their famed discipline, hard work, intelligence, planning and forbearance.
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  • @Anonymous
    If white Europeans are to survive in the coming centuries, as a distinctive ethny and not just as inclusion in someone else's genome, then they must start electing unabashedly nationalist parties right NOW. Any delay, at this critical juncture would be fatal.

    Lets say that by 2100, 1/3 of Europe will be of mixed race whitish people. Is that the end of the world? Can they not be accepted as white? What about the Spanish, Portuguese, and Sicilians? Are they not just as white as any white white person?

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yep.

    And Puerto Rico, Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, or the Dominican Republic etc are such great places to live.
    , @German_reader
    Idiotic statement, while Spaniards and Portuguese have some sub-Saharan ancestry (at very low levels, about 1% on average according to one of Razib Khan's recent posts; Sicilians apparently have even less), it's not like they're visibly non-white in general.
    , @rod1963
    If European whites interbreed with 70 IQ blacks and 85 IQ Arab Muslims whose cultures are totally antithetical to Western Civ. The end product will be mulattoes that are morons and whose culture will not be European but Muslim.

    It would mean the end of Europe and civilization.

    BTW if the expected influx of Muslims occurs and there is no effort to stop it, Europe will be lost within a decade.

    Nobody by then will care about whether the Europeans are white either, they'll be to busy dealing with Jihadis who are trying to kill them.
    , @anon
    Yes it is the end of the world.

    Get back to us when you see Jews marrying average 85 IQ people or inviting millions of them to settle in Israel.
    , @Erik Sieven
    we are not talking about 1/3 mixed race people in Europe by 2100. We are talking about 90 % of the population which are of pure subsaharan African ancestry in Europe, India, China. And a small rest of mixed race people everywhere. That is not the end of the world. People then still will love, laugh, live. But it is the end of civilization. It means world wide life expectancy of maybe 30-40 years. No planes, no cars, no computers, no medicine, no modern agriculture, no electricity, no technology at all. And it is a unbelievable loss of human and cultural diversity.
    , @Sean
    Well it is certainly not the end of Africa .
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  • @Cody
    Steve, if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa (and for that matter, everywhere in the world. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning

    And they also control the European Union, the Communist countries, and the UN?

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  • @5371
    You really think "white Christians and social conservatives" have such a stranglehold over the rich world's economies and governments that they can prevent this from happening?

    There are some like that that really do think that whites and conservatives really do have this power, and for those that do not roam the corridors of power they sincerely believe this to be true.

    Despite all the evidence of the last 50 years where whites have lost power and Christians have been vaporized from public discourse and power, there are still a lot of liberals that think the world is still in 1950. The world is actually closer to 950, where Western civilization was not as strong and faced a lot of threats, but unlike 950 we lack both the will and people to survive and we no longer have geography as a defensive shield. We are basically at deaths door, the clueless liberals who pretend to be so knowledgeable about the world are the least aware of what really is happening.

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  • @Anonymous
    I'm fairly certain that if New Labour did not f*ck up back in 2010, and a massive UKIP mediated anti-immigration backlash had not materialized, then New Labour would still being pursuing their insane immigrationist obsession with increased prejudice.
    Britain would literally have millions of immigrants entering each year by now.

    It does. The UK’s equivalent of the Republicans said they were going to reduce the numbers – and then they increased them.

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  • @XVO
    Isn't it likely that Sub Saharan African birth rates continue to decline, just as birth rates in western nations declined as infant mortality was reduced, the economy became more productive, the relative cost of children increased due to increased population. The population can only go up so high before economic pressures make it difficult, right now food is cheap, when the population doubles will it still be cheap? No.

    Birth rate over time: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sub-saharan-africa/birth-rate-crude-per-1-000-people-wb-data.html
    Infant Mortality Rate over time (in table): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2292/

    The net birth rate appears to already be on a downward trend.

    Look at India (6 to 2.5 per woman), China (6 to 1.6), Brazil(6 to 1.8), Indonesia (5.6 to 2.4), Iran (7 to 1.9), I'm not cherry picking google the statistics for any country yourself, their birth rates have fallen considerably in the last 50 years, from African levels, down to (almost) western levels. The chart shown in this post is making bad assumptions, there's little reason to expect Africa not to experience a similar decline.

    If you have evolved to be horny and dumb as a box of rocks, that might complicate things somewhat.

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  • @Reg Cæsar

    And this still does not answer why Ashkenazi Jews had in Europe (pre-war) an “African” level of fertility
     
    Was it in Albion's Seed that I read that colonial New Englanders had the highest recorded fertility known to man (or woman), an average nearly reaching ten?

    That would be the Hutterites. Colonial New Englanders were less prolific than that, and French colonists in Quebec had them beat.

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  • @Cody
    Steve, if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa (and for that matter, everywhere in the world. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    You really think “white Christians and social conservatives” have such a stranglehold over the rich world’s economies and governments that they can prevent this from happening?

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    • Replies: @neutral
    There are some like that that really do think that whites and conservatives really do have this power, and for those that do not roam the corridors of power they sincerely believe this to be true.

    Despite all the evidence of the last 50 years where whites have lost power and Christians have been vaporized from public discourse and power, there are still a lot of liberals that think the world is still in 1950. The world is actually closer to 950, where Western civilization was not as strong and faced a lot of threats, but unlike 950 we lack both the will and people to survive and we no longer have geography as a defensive shield. We are basically at deaths door, the clueless liberals who pretend to be so knowledgeable about the world are the least aware of what really is happening.

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  • @Anonymous
    I'm fairly certain that if New Labour did not f*ck up back in 2010, and a massive UKIP mediated anti-immigration backlash had not materialized, then New Labour would still being pursuing their insane immigrationist obsession with increased prejudice.
    Britain would literally have millions of immigrants entering each year by now.

    Britain does.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Rubbish.

    Just look at Britain's New Labour administration of 1997-2010.

    Basically, it was all 'Caplan' on immigration. An odd position for the 'worker's party'.

    On the same note, well over 630,000 immigrants entered the UK 'legally' last year. An almost equivalent number to all those 'refugees' we're getting in a tizzy about. This under a government pledged to 'reduce' immigration.
    Such is the sad state of affairs in Britain that such enormous numbers go almost unremarked. The population has been that demoralized and inured.

    I’m fairly certain that if New Labour did not f*ck up back in 2010, and a massive UKIP mediated anti-immigration backlash had not materialized, then New Labour would still being pursuing their insane immigrationist obsession with increased prejudice.
    Britain would literally have millions of immigrants entering each year by now.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Britain does.
    , @anon
    It does. The UK's equivalent of the Republicans said they were going to reduce the numbers - and then they increased them.
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  • Is there any less erectile way to graph this?

    (And don’t say “pie charts”!)

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @bossel

    One of the mainstream right parties in Merkel’s coalition is already starting to rebel
     
    Actually, the CSU was much tougher on immigration in the past. They relaxed in recent years.

    & they are not the only ones who see the situation more realistically than Merkel. A large faction in Merkel's CDU is also for more restrictions, as well as quite a number in the center-left SPD. Even further left you find voices for a smaller, regulated immigration.

    That's why all this scaremongering by Sailer is nonsense. Many Europeans may be do-gooders, but there are more than enough people who have a much more realistic view of the world. & sooner or later there will be stricter limits on immigration.

    Rubbish.

    Just look at Britain’s New Labour administration of 1997-2010.

    Basically, it was all ‘Caplan’ on immigration. An odd position for the ‘worker’s party’.

    On the same note, well over 630,000 immigrants entered the UK ‘legally’ last year. An almost equivalent number to all those ‘refugees’ we’re getting in a tizzy about. This under a government pledged to ‘reduce’ immigration.
    Such is the sad state of affairs in Britain that such enormous numbers go almost unremarked. The population has been that demoralized and inured.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm fairly certain that if New Labour did not f*ck up back in 2010, and a massive UKIP mediated anti-immigration backlash had not materialized, then New Labour would still being pursuing their insane immigrationist obsession with increased prejudice.
    Britain would literally have millions of immigrants entering each year by now.
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  • @XVO
    Isn't it likely that Sub Saharan African birth rates continue to decline, just as birth rates in western nations declined as infant mortality was reduced, the economy became more productive, the relative cost of children increased due to increased population. The population can only go up so high before economic pressures make it difficult, right now food is cheap, when the population doubles will it still be cheap? No.

    Birth rate over time: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/sub-saharan-africa/birth-rate-crude-per-1-000-people-wb-data.html
    Infant Mortality Rate over time (in table): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2292/

    The net birth rate appears to already be on a downward trend.

    Look at India (6 to 2.5 per woman), China (6 to 1.6), Brazil(6 to 1.8), Indonesia (5.6 to 2.4), Iran (7 to 1.9), I'm not cherry picking google the statistics for any country yourself, their birth rates have fallen considerably in the last 50 years, from African levels, down to (almost) western levels. The chart shown in this post is making bad assumptions, there's little reason to expect Africa not to experience a similar decline.

    >>The net birth rate appears to already be on a downward trend.

    There’s a TED talk on this by a man regarded as one of the better presenters around — skip to about 7:40, though I’m guessing it’s only as good as the data above.

    http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth?language=en

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  • @anonymous
    Fences, what can’t they do?

    The "invention" of the fence must have happened in the early days of agriculture. It probably was way before the invention of the wheel. fenceworkshop.com: "While it may seem strange to consider the fence as one of the defining concepts of modern civilization, its history has huge ramifications for the way we perceive our world today."

    Apparently you can find anything on the internet:

    fencehistory.blogspot.com: The History and Culture of Fences You wouldn’t have thought anyone could really do a “history” of the fence. After all, where does it begin?:


    "...The word itself comes from Middle English "fens," short for "defens" which, of course, means defense. ...

    ...The kind of fencing you install has a history, discussed elsewhere, that goes back to the beginnings of mankind, where among other uses, it certainly was for defense. In the beginning, however, it was also an important factor in developing agriculture, and the cultural understanding of private property.

    ...it’s been studied... Christina Kotchemidova, a professor at New York University... made the point that fences do more than provide a physical function (like keeping someone in or out) - they actually have a cultural function. In fact, she says that the history of civilization is closely tied with the history of the fence. Human civilization is imagined as emerging from agriculture, family and property. And all of these evolved with the serious help of the fence.

    Fences, she says, define ownership, and societies that did not have individual ownership, such as early European farming, (harvesting, and moving-on societies, and many American native tribes,) did not have fences.

    ...in 7th century England, the King of Wessex added a new function for the fence ... the business of protecting crops from cattle, and the land-owner’s responsibilities. He proclaimed that a homestead must be fenced winter and summer. If it is not fenced and his neighbor's cattle get in... he has no right to anything from that cattle; he is to... suffer the damage."

     

    "The Culture of the Fence: Artifacts and Meanings", Christina Kotchemidova, Counterblast, a publication of the Department of Culture and Communication at New York University.

    As the old saying goes, “Good fences make good neighbors.”

    Cells in a living thing cannot function without membranes or cell walls to protect their integrity. Similarly, the organs in a body are separate and distinct; they have to be in order to do what they do.

    Borders and distinctions between parts are essential to the proper functioning of anything of high order. Without them, you have entropy.

    It’s too bad the people with the megaphone don’t understand basic science.

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  • @Lot

    white pathological altruism money and goody spigot drying up
     
    Africa does not subsist to any significant degree on Western aid. It is more than capable of growing its own food, even though it sometimes fails to do so. The amount of aid is pretty small, and often most of the "food aid" money is wasted by (1) employing westerners at high wages (2) logistics (3) rules that food aid must be purchased from 1st world farmers at much higher than local prices.

    Probably the biggest aid we give Africa is that most donated clothes than aren't turned to rags and recycled go to Africa.

    Africa does not subsist to any significant degree on Western aid. It is more than capable of growing its own food, even though it sometimes fails to do so.

    LOL. Africa is a land mass. It doesn’t require food at all. This is a really goofy conflation.

    Of course, if, by “Africa”, you mean Africans, then your first sentence is ludicrous. The increase in Africa’s population over the last 100 years is entirely due to Western aid. What did Africans invent to increase the land’s carrying capacity?

    Nothing.

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  • @Travis
    thanks for the charts which are actually more dramatic if one looked at the population under 40 years of age , since this is the immediate future and already includes a substantial amount of muslims.

    Europe , besides having a shrinking population has a much older population than the Middle East. Already in France 20% of the under 40 population is muslim while 12% of the German population under the age of 40 are Muslim.

    A main cause of the crisis is the low fertility rate of European females , which has given Europe an excuse to allow in the muslim invaders and will further hasten the decline of christian Europe

    Since the average European is now 50 years old, they are more concerned with getting their pensions and 20% of those between the ages of 40-50 have no children, thus could care less about the future of Europe. Europeans under 40 had even less children.

    Actually, the demographics of white Americans are just as bad.

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    • Replies: @Travis
    America is in a better situation, as white American females have a fertility rate slightly higher than Europeans and the fastest demographic group in America is hispanics christians, instead of muslims from the middle east. While France, Germany and England have a growing muslim population , which is already over 10% of their young people. The recent wave of muslims into Europe will be more destructive to Europeans than the immigrants from Latin America settling in America.
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  • @Perplexed
    I wonder how many scientists there will be 150,000 years from now. There are more than 400 nuclear plants, plus a lot of waste, that have to be tended and safeguarded. Are Africans up to the task? We don't even seem to be. (Are people aware that nothing has been done to remediate Fukushima? No one seems to have a clue as to what *can* be done. And radiation makes people stupider.)

    I wonder how many scientists there will be 150,000 years from now. There are more than 400 nuclear plants, plus a lot of waste, that have to be tended and safeguarded.

    There will be no scientists 150,000 years from now, because, as we all can see, humanity will have evolved to be much, much stupider.

    Nuclear power, however, is not the boogyman you think it is. It is a clean, efficient solution for energy production. It probably will never reach its full productive potential though, because, well, see what I just wrote above (or just look in a mirror).

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  • @Cody
    Steve, if liberals could, they would drop hundreds of millions of condoms across Africa (and for that matter, everywhere in the world. Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.

    Nearly all the family planning start-ups and social service oriented organizations are headed and staffed by optimistic young liberals.

    Very optimistic. Are these young idealists going to travel to Africa to put the condoms on the men themselves? Would they enjoy doing this? Would you?

    A potential consultant might be that guy at Singapore’s zoo whose job it is to collect semen samples from the various beasts housed there. By hand. (Safer than you’d think. “They know I’m not their enemy,” he told an interviewer.)

    His wife complains he comes home with a glassy look in his eyes.

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  • @iSteveFan

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.
     

    How much do condoms cost? How hard are they to get? These Africans have smartphones, satellite TVs and a host of other trimmings of the modern world. Why would they be lacking condoms?

    Africans and others readily adopt things from the Western world like tech, clothing and media that they find agreeable. If they found using condoms were agreeable, wouldn't they already be using them in high numbers?

    Keep in mind the white Christians that might tell them birth control is wrong are also the ones who tell them that extra-marital sex is wrong. If they listen to the white Christians on the former, why not the latter? I doubt white Christians are the cause of their family planning problem. As Steve has pointed out before, they have evolved in a land plagued by diseases like malaria, and thus have tended to have many children to ensure some survive. Modern medicines and surplus food have now messed with this survival strategy.

    These Africans have smartphones, satellite TVs and a host of other trimmings of the modern world. Why would they be lacking condoms?

    Why would they use condoms if they had them? They make the experience almost pointless.

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  • @Veracitor
    Hi Steve. I nominate Wilkey's comment for the gold box!

    Hi Steve. I nominate Wilkey’s comment for the gold box!

    Gold box? The black box would be more appropriate.

    He’s thinking 150,000 years into the future? Civilization itself is only 10,000 years old.

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  • @dearieme
    It's all the West's fault. If we hadn't provided all these people with drains, clean water, vaccinations and antibiotics there wouldn't be so many of them.

    It’s all the West’s fault. If we hadn’t provided all these people with drains, clean water, vaccinations and antibiotics there wouldn’t be so many of them.

    You are exactly right.

    I remember, from the time I was a child half a century ago, repeated efforts and campaigns to feed or assist starving or sick people in those lands. We were told that if we help them, they will have better lives.

    All they did was have more babies.

    The truth is, European Man created the modern world and the comforts that enabled ALL OTHER RACES to grow. Those peoples always wanted what European Man created. Now their numbers are so great, their political power so strong, their portfolios so full of US dollar instruments, that they are overrunning the very people who facilitated their growth

    When they have diluted European Man and overrun his living space, few will remain able to maintain this wonderful modern world. European Man is doomed to near extinction, and the dependent races are doomed to hell on Earth.

    That’s one ranting way of looking at it, anyway.

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  • Sorry if someone else mentioned this – I’ve just seen this post and haven’t read all the comments – but it is worth remembering that the rise in population numbers in Africa actually is a success story, since it doesn’t represent increasing numbers of children being born to African women, but larger numbers of children growing to maturity. Over the past 50 years infant and child mortality numbers have fallen in Africa, and this is the major reason that the population increase has been so large.

    By the way, you can also tell by these numbers that the “African AIDS epidemic” was probably a trifle exaggerated by the AIDS lobby.

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  • @iSteveFan

    Its the white Christians and social conservatives that oppose family planning, in the US and in the Third World.

    But as we know these salt of the earth people are the greatest, most perfect people of all time, so lets blame liberals instead.
     

    How much do condoms cost? How hard are they to get? These Africans have smartphones, satellite TVs and a host of other trimmings of the modern world. Why would they be lacking condoms?

    Africans and others readily adopt things from the Western world like tech, clothing and media that they find agreeable. If they found using condoms were agreeable, wouldn't they already be using them in high numbers?

    Keep in mind the white Christians that might tell them birth control is wrong are also the ones who tell them that extra-marital sex is wrong. If they listen to the white Christians on the former, why not the latter? I doubt white Christians are the cause of their family planning problem. As Steve has pointed out before, they have evolved in a land plagued by diseases like malaria, and thus have tended to have many children to ensure some survive. Modern medicines and surplus food have now messed with this survival strategy.

    If they found using condoms were agreeable, wouldn’t they already be using them in high numbers?

    What they need is a condom that feels like dry sex to the man, and wet sex to the woman. That would sell like hotcakes.

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