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    I was recently reading Sexual Behavior in the United States: Results from a National Probability Sample of Men and Women Ages 14–94. At N ~ 6,000 it's a large sample of American sexual behavior around 2010. There was one descriptive result which I thought was interesting, though not surprising. Before the age of 25 it...
  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    I also wonder if the spike in men’s sexual activity relative to women indicates the point at which affairs become more common. When you get to the later years and most men and women are likely married, one would expect that monogamy would result in something close to a meeting of the lines, but instead men are finding more opportunities for sex.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website

    Simple, older guys go after younger women. Younger women are easier to convince since they are eager to experience sex and are awed by money, looks and a ‘slick’ line. Older women want sex period, but with 25 year old men who have the endurance to satisfy their needs.

    But since men are always looking for younger women, the curve will always look the same.

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  • @Razib Khan
    my model is similar. i put this post up because it seems to quantify what i've heard of/seen anecdotally. e.g., i have attractive (young looking) female friends in their mid-30s who are shocked all of a sudden how difficult it is to date because now they're competing with women 10 years younger. to make things work they have to move up themselves to 45 year olds, and they're not always willing to do so....

    the converse is that to some extent immature and broke 20 year old males compete for the same women with 25 and 30 year olds who have jobs and are more seasoned.

    Perhaps the women in their mid-30s should be dating the 20 year old men. My impression is that they make cheap dates (pizza anyone), and if the women are primarily interested in sex or showing off their vitality (which often seems to be the case when men date much younger women) it seems like a match made in heaven (especially if the women are more focused on quantity than quality of sex).

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  • Mmmmm… Interesting! I can understand the sudden drop from 25-29. Maybe those women settled down and were preoccupied with child-rearing and household stuff and the men continued having sex maybe outside of marriage because their wives were busy and became homely).

    The most interesting, I think, is the rise among women aged 16-29. Is this related to the rise of sex addiction among women?

    http://voices.yahoo.com/women-sexual-addiction-characteristics-causes-6020246.html?cat=72

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website
    @JonFrum
    Divide the population into two groups - those waiting to become sexual, and those who have become sexually active. Statistically, the line would sit right about where this graph peaks. That is, if people are ever going to become sexual, it's going to happen by their mid-20s.

    In those two age groups, you have different selection going on. In the early years, females can select the best deal for themselves, which is often an older male. Thus, for any yearly age cohort, sexual activity will be biased towards younger female/older male (although the difference will generally be small - one or two years).

    Once you reach the age where males catch up to females, and both sexes are fully sexually active, that bias goes away - males have equal opportunity to females. That explains the first half of the graph.

    The second half of the graph I take to me more complicated. Speculation warning: First, marriage locks in an older male-younger female equality of sexual behavior. If I"m five years older than my wife and we are monogamous, then our intercourse numbers will be equal. Second, I suspect that female interest in sex goes down faster than that of males. Third, given the opportunity, men of increasing age would keep having sex with 25 year olds for as long as they live. As a practical matter, this expresses itself in an 'as young as possible' bias that in practice is more like 5-10 years.

    My story - sticking to it.

    Great story. I would also assume that women, once they hit menopause, it affects their actual sex drives/hormones. This could play a role in why women fall off in the graph as they get older as they are less likely to continue to have sex due to the lack of hormones or lack of interest. They have already raised children and utilized the work of that uterus to its fullest extent so why bother if pleasure is minimal with increased age?

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  • I wonder if this includes gay sex. How much does that throw off the ratio? Gay sex counts twice for each gender remember.

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  • I’m guessing at least some of the decline among females after 25 is related to children and single motherhood in particular. Single parents don’t have a lot of time for relations and a higher proportion are women.

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  • @JonFrum
    Divide the population into two groups - those waiting to become sexual, and those who have become sexually active. Statistically, the line would sit right about where this graph peaks. That is, if people are ever going to become sexual, it's going to happen by their mid-20s.

    In those two age groups, you have different selection going on. In the early years, females can select the best deal for themselves, which is often an older male. Thus, for any yearly age cohort, sexual activity will be biased towards younger female/older male (although the difference will generally be small - one or two years).

    Once you reach the age where males catch up to females, and both sexes are fully sexually active, that bias goes away - males have equal opportunity to females. That explains the first half of the graph.

    The second half of the graph I take to me more complicated. Speculation warning: First, marriage locks in an older male-younger female equality of sexual behavior. If I"m five years older than my wife and we are monogamous, then our intercourse numbers will be equal. Second, I suspect that female interest in sex goes down faster than that of males. Third, given the opportunity, men of increasing age would keep having sex with 25 year olds for as long as they live. As a practical matter, this expresses itself in an 'as young as possible' bias that in practice is more like 5-10 years.

    My story - sticking to it.

    my model is similar. i put this post up because it seems to quantify what i’ve heard of/seen anecdotally. e.g., i have attractive (young looking) female friends in their mid-30s who are shocked all of a sudden how difficult it is to date because now they’re competing with women 10 years younger. to make things work they have to move up themselves to 45 year olds, and they’re not always willing to do so….

    the converse is that to some extent immature and broke 20 year old males compete for the same women with 25 and 30 year olds who have jobs and are more seasoned.

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    • Replies: @marcel proust
    Perhaps the women in their mid-30s should be dating the 20 year old men. My impression is that they make cheap dates (pizza anyone), and if the women are primarily interested in sex or showing off their vitality (which often seems to be the case when men date much younger women) it seems like a match made in heaven (especially if the women are more focused on quantity than quality of sex).
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  • Divide the population into two groups – those waiting to become sexual, and those who have become sexually active. Statistically, the line would sit right about where this graph peaks. That is, if people are ever going to become sexual, it’s going to happen by their mid-20s.

    In those two age groups, you have different selection going on. In the early years, females can select the best deal for themselves, which is often an older male. Thus, for any yearly age cohort, sexual activity will be biased towards younger female/older male (although the difference will generally be small – one or two years).

    Once you reach the age where males catch up to females, and both sexes are fully sexually active, that bias goes away – males have equal opportunity to females. That explains the first half of the graph.

    The second half of the graph I take to me more complicated. Speculation warning: First, marriage locks in an older male-younger female equality of sexual behavior. If I”m five years older than my wife and we are monogamous, then our intercourse numbers will be equal. Second, I suspect that female interest in sex goes down faster than that of males. Third, given the opportunity, men of increasing age would keep having sex with 25 year olds for as long as they live. As a practical matter, this expresses itself in an ‘as young as possible’ bias that in practice is more like 5-10 years.

    My story – sticking to it.

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    • Replies: @Razib Khan
    my model is similar. i put this post up because it seems to quantify what i've heard of/seen anecdotally. e.g., i have attractive (young looking) female friends in their mid-30s who are shocked all of a sudden how difficult it is to date because now they're competing with women 10 years younger. to make things work they have to move up themselves to 45 year olds, and they're not always willing to do so....

    the converse is that to some extent immature and broke 20 year old males compete for the same women with 25 and 30 year olds who have jobs and are more seasoned.

    , @Anonymous
    Great story. I would also assume that women, once they hit menopause, it affects their actual sex drives/hormones. This could play a role in why women fall off in the graph as they get older as they are less likely to continue to have sex due to the lack of hormones or lack of interest. They have already raised children and utilized the work of that uterus to its fullest extent so why bother if pleasure is minimal with increased age?
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  • Speculations

    on this were a lot more productive, if we knew the “true”

    figures along with the figures they got by interrogation. :=)

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  • I was at ASHG this week, so I've followed reactions to the election passively. But one thing I've seen is repeated commentary on the fact that Asian Americans have swung toward the Democrats over the past generation. The thing that pisses me off is that there is a very obvious low-hanging fruit sort of explanation...
  • Steve, this is their leader ;) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALphNDobVbo
    and this is one of the funnier ones going around:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uKiJdDkQ70 neither of them are b-boys tho. there are a lot of asian b-boy dance crews that do the competitions and stuff. the “asian b-boy crewz” tend to be a passive version of black cliques IMO, where they go through all the actions and buy the fast Hondas to race but don’t shoot each other.

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  • Spike says:

    “In Hawaii and parts of the West Coast, there’s a sort of unified “lower middle-class” pan-Asian America (at least East and SE Asian American) urban youth culture forming. It’s partially informed by black culture, particularly the music and clothes, but quite unique in it’s own way, with it’s souped up and customized cars and motorcycles, illegal road racing, tech bling, pan-Asian random pastiche aesthetic and b-boy dance-offs. I have far too many cousins who are into that lifestyle.”

    Very interesting. I’ve gotten a few glimpses of this myself in Torrance, CA. I’d like to hear more.

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  • So to look at the other side of the question at #11, who are the non-Asian-American Hindus?

    The differences in political leanings between “all Hindus” and “Asian-American Hindus” implies that there are at least some. Or is the survey(s?) just that noisy?

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  • The Republicans ran a Mormon and a Catholic this time (i.e., no Protestants on the GOP national ticket for the first time ever), and they went extremely light on the Jesus talk in favor of the tax talk.

    Romney and Ryan’s share of the Jewish vote went up considerably, in both the Edison and Reuters-Ipsos exit polls.

    I suspect the Edison exit poll showing of a huge falloff since 2008 in Asians voting Republican was partly real, partly just an error due to small sample size. Unfortunately, the Reuters poll doesn’t break out Asians separately, but there are catch-all “Other Minorities” bin doesn’t jibe with a huge fall in Asians voting Republicans. Down some, but not a collapse like in the more publicized Edison exit poll.

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  • #42, everyone paid up. please post stuff like that to the open thread.

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  • I didn’t see a response post to the bets you made on your “Skewing my winnings” post. In particular, this one was very interesting:
    ————————————————————–
    Daniel Gonzalez Buitrago Says:
    October 1st, 2012 at 9:54 am
    I´d like to participate in your bet Razib. I´ll bet 40 USD on the following:
    - The latest poll by Pew research before the election will overestimate Obama´s share of the national vote by at least 2%. (20 USD)
    - The latest poll by “We ask america” in Wisconsin will overestimate Obama´s share of the vote by an amount greater than its margin of error. (20 USD)
    ————————————————————–
    Daniel would’ve lost very badly, he ended up choosing two polls that performed exceptionally well!

    Last Pew poll: Obama 50%, Romney 47%
    Actual results: Obama 50.6%, Romney 47.8%

    http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

    Last “We ask america” WI poll: Obama 51.5%, Romney 44.8% MOE 3%
    Actual results in WI: Obama 52.8%, Romney 46.1%
    Interestingly, this poll got the difference between the candidates exactly correct at 6.7%!

    http://weaskamerica.com/2012/11/02/hot-off-the-presses-2/

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  • I’m not sure there’s enough of them (or any other group worth speaking of) to talk about a trend within America.

    i’m pretty sure they’re converting in large numbers. churches brought them over, and i have known of a fair number of hmong. they’re not 90% xtian, but large numbers did convert to protestant churches.

    Perhaps Theravada Buddhism developed its comparably strong identity because it was working over a fairly regularized Hindu substrate,

    no, it’s highly animist. interestingly most of the thai groups (in which the shan are bracketed) actually were mahayana when they arrived. the mon and khmer converted them.

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  • Razib -

    I was a bit perplexed by your original wording, because it seemed to imply that highland Southeast Asians converted to Christianity in disproportionate numbers when they come to the U.S. AFAIK, the Hmong are the only highland group which has come to the U.S., and while some are Christian, I’m not sure there’s enough of them (or any other group worth speaking of) to talk about a trend within America.

    As to Asia, absolutely. Admittedly, I’m more familiar with the Christianized groups in Northeast India (Nagas, Mizos), than those in Burma or elsewhere, but it seems the same general trends are evident.

    Perhaps Theravada Buddhism developed its comparably strong identity because it was working over a fairly regularized Hindu substrate, whereas in East Asia each of the philosophies and religions (Taoism, Shintoism, local interpretations of Buddhism, etc) was essentially a warmed-over patina on top of inconsistent animist theology?

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  • #37, read the comments and links. ideology is a *weak* predictor (e.g., indian americans seem more skeptical of the democrat position gov., but vote most democratic). the best thing to do when adding a comment is not to add more crap to the stream that we’re trying to filter out for nice tidbits.

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  • I’d say religion is a determining factor for sure. Practicing Christians in general are prone to being more socially conservative and vote that way too.

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  • The fact that evangelicals overwhelmingly voted for a Mormon shows that political ideology was more important than religious ideology. There’s no reason to think that this wouldn’t extend to Asians.

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  • #22 – there are problems with recognition of Filipino degrees. If they can make it to somewhere like AIT in Bangkok to do a ‘top up’ masters, then the engineering graduates can get the combined bachelors + masters recognised for professional qualification purposes. If not, they end up working as technicians.

    Same with a lot of East European degrees. I knew a lot of Estonians, Latvians, Hungarians working as engineering lab technicians who would have been qualified engineers in their own countries. I even knew a German guy who was driving a road grader.

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  • #11: Wouldn’t Christians also be disproportionately likely to immigrate from East Asia to the US? I read a study by Yuan Yichuan* noting that Hmong students in SW China had disproportionate academic success (controlling for income and development exacerbated the anomaly). He attributed this to the fact that there are many Hmong Christians who are highly motivated by the possibility of joining the Hmong community in the US.

    Yuan Yichuan, ‘Attitude and Motivation for English Learning of Ethnic Minority Students in China’ (Shanghai Foreign Language Education Press 2007).

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  • #33, shan are staunch buddhists. i mean mostly hmong. but karen would be grouped into this. as you may know in mainland southeast asia there is a large distinction between lowlanders, who are part of a broader theravada buddhist civilization (except vietnam), and highlanders, who are not necessarily (some highlanders obviously are, e.g., the shan). many highland populations have adopted christianity as a way to prevent further assimilation into lowland buddhist culture, in the nations of origin themselves (e.g., montagnards).

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  • Razib -

    What do you mean by “Southeast Asian highlanders?” Hmong? Shan? Karen?

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  • Razib said “in contrast, hindu and sikh south asians are like jews. they may not be very pious in their practice or belief (surveys indicate they’re not), but they have a very strong ethno-religious identity”

    Yes, as a man you has fallen in love with his share of smoking hot north Indian sikh women, I can testify this is, alas, all too true. :(

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  • in contrast, hindu and sikh south asians are like jews. they may not be very pious in their practice or belief (surveys indicate they’re not), but they have a very strong ethno-religious identity. so they tend not to ‘defect’ from that identity. a large number of xtian indians in the USA aren’t ppl who’ve converted, but ppl from indian xtian backgrounds, who are more likely to be migrants (e.g., from kerala).

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  • #29, it fits in with the ethnography with how ppl convert to a religion actually. ‘standard model.’ east asians (and southeast asian highlanders) have weak if any attachment to organized religions before they come to the USA. so naturally they become xtian to ‘fit in.’ in contrast, in thailand they become theravada buddhist. the main chasm seems to be islam, where dietary and cultural changes are such that one loses han identity (and becomes hui) if one converts.

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  • 27

    No, I’m sure I’m biased. The more I thought about this topic yesterday, the more I realized that most of the Korean Americans I went to church with are still religious. So, I’m probably a little atypical, and I wasn’t looking outwardly enough when I posted before. I do recall a number of Koreans who became Christian after coming to America because they were integrating into an American community of Koreans who were churchgoers. And I recently read a NYTimes article about Chinese in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn who were becoming Christians and attending a Chinese American church. I think a lot of these immigrants become Christian to fit in with their compatriots, which is kind of strange if you think about it. They’re not being converted, usually, by white Americans but people from their own communities. They’re doing it to fit into a somewhat segregated ethnic enclave of Christians in America whose church services are usually in another language. But the group itself is doing it to be more American? I’m not sure.

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  • Presumably the high level of Christians in the Japanese-American community is result of conversion, as most Japanese-Americans are native born, and few Japanese are Christians.

    considering how old this community is, what’s surprising is the very low level of conversion to christianity! in any case, i think that yes, secularization is kicking in for 3rd and 4th generation japanese and chinese americans. they come from societies where institutional religion was weak in the first place, allowing them to become xtian to assimilate, but now that that’s not necessary, they seem to be shedding it.

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  • I can’t think of any Asian Americans I know who were raised non-Christian and became Christian because of American influence. I’d say an East Asian or Southeast Asian immigrant is more likely to be Christian than their American-bred children, but I have no statistics to back that up.

    want to take a bet on this? (money)

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  • #17, Razib Khan’s boss, Ron Unz

    dude, i’m not an unz foundation fellow anymore (that’s why i took it down), so you might say “ex-boss.” though the reality is that i’ve had a different job for a long time now, even if i don’t enlighten you about. please don’t assume you know a lot about someone’s background when you don’t (the please is rhetorical, don’t pull that bullshit again; unless you are a good actor you have a lot of social retardation, so i figure i need to be explicit).

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  • #16, I also recommend the pew study as a good complement to Razib’s blog entry, i.e. great info about intermarriage rates, hierarchy of self-identification, and such.

    yep. i don’t provide links for nothin’ ;-)

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  • 23 -

    I considered bringing up the “ricer” phenomena, but decided it was a bit off topic. =)

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  • Peter:

    Fil-Ams tend to mix with Hispanics quite easily, especially in California. Not too surprising, considering the shared Catholicism and Spanish cultural influences.

    In Hawaii and parts of the West Coast, there’s a sort of unified “lower middle-class” pan-Asian America (at least East and SE Asian American) urban youth culture forming. It’s partially informed by black culture, particularly the music and clothes, but quite unique in it’s own way, with it’s souped up and customized cars and motorcycles, illegal road racing, tech bling, pan-Asian random pastiche aesthetic and b-boy dance-offs. I have far too many cousins who are into that lifestyle.

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  • 16 -

    Vietnamese are definitely well below the norm for Asian-American groups in the study you linked in terms of both income and education, although admittedly it doesn’t seem like it’s the case for Filipinos. I will freely admit my own experience is somewhat secondhand, as comparably few Filipinos are to be found on the east coast, but the ones I have known have tended to go into practical lines of work (small business owners, nurses, medical techs, etc), and not heavily into engineering, medicine, and other advanced degree programs as Chinese-Americans, Korean-Americans, and Indian-Americans. But since I’m speaking from anecdote I’ll just shut the hell up now.

    18 -

    Presumably the high level of Christians in the Japanese-American community is result of conversion, as most Japanese-Americans are native born, and few Japanese are Christians. The conversion may have happened one or two generations in the past however, and be receding in terms of salience. Either way, the Japanese-American community is dying out, due to few new Japanese migrating, and an extremely high intermarriage rate.

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  • Peter,

    Anecdotally, growing up I saw a fair amount of Hmong mingling with African-Americans and black culture to an extent, e.g. music, fashion, slang, and gang membership (not in black gangs IIRC, but forming their own). However, the majority of Asian Americans were either quite fobby or more in tune with the local white culture.

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  • prosa123 [AKA "Peter"] says: • Website

    In contrast, Filipinos and Vietnamese tend to be a bit more lower-middle class in the U.S., so to the extent they acculturate it can be into whatever the local lower-middle class white culture is, which could either be secular/liberal or conservative/christian depending upon the area.

    Do they ever blend into the local black culture?

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  • From a point of methodology, I would argue that ethnography can be valuable data in addition to survey data, even though the sample sizes are much smaller. It is more than intuition.

    And, in that regard, I know perhaps a dozen first generation Korean Christians who would be fairly characterized as Evangelical Christian, and quite a few more of their second generation children. I’ve seen both phenomena in action.

    The first generation Korean Christians that I know have grown increasingly less comfortable with the Republican party despite their strong conservative values and Evangelical leanings – they are less welcome in the party and are concerned that the GOP does not have their overall best interests at heart. Also fervant anticommunism, which was a pretty important thread in their reasons for being Republicans when younger as a generation influenced by the Korean War, has grown to be a less salient issue.

    It is also true that their children are on average less likely to be Evangelical Christians although a significant number of them have gone on to join the Evangelical Christian clergy.

    Maybe my ethnographic exposure is atypical, or it might reflect acclimatization over decades of living in the U.S. while younger first generation Korean Christians are just as fervantly Republican as they once were when they were younger. But there are reality based reasons for thinking that both effects are present and the virtue of ethnographic level data relative to surveys, is that they can provide more reliable information about the subjective “whys” behind the trend.

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  • Re: Second generation Asian Americans’ religion

    In my case, I was raised Christian by Korean immigrant parents, but I am an atheist. I’m not affiliated with any party but I would tend towards Democratic. For instance, there’s no way I could have voted for Romney. Give me a better Republican candidate and there could be a chance I’d vote for that person.

    I can’t think of any Asian Americans I know who were raised non-Christian and became Christian because of American influence. I’d say an East Asian or Southeast Asian immigrant is more likely to be Christian than their American-bred children, but I have no statistics to back that up.

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  • “Are you proposing that Asian IQs noticeably rose worldwide in 13 years?”

    Indeed, Asian SAT-takers in the US and abroad have experienced rapid, recent score improvement. However, this is not a closed population, participation rates confound in myriad ways, the College Board did not design the SAT to be an IQ test, the g-loading of the SAT is not 100%, and the heritability of IQ is not 100%. African Americans also experienced score improvement in the 70’s and 80’s.

    “I suppose that you could be talking about some sort of Flynn effect”

    Ironically, Razib Khan’s boss, Ron Unz, recently used my work to argue that Hispanic Americans experienced a “super-Flynn effect” because their SAT gap with whites only increased slightly while their participation rose, (which he grossly exaggerated).

    “I think that a more reasonable explanation is that continual adjustments to and the and renorming of the SAT has resulted in improved Asian performance.”

    No, Cohen’s d minimizes those effects, and the College Board explicitly designed its “recentering” partly to make Asians “appear less above average.”

    “Thus SAT improvements related to a Flynn effect would not affect voting.”

    It has been hypothesized that SAT improvements affect education exposure. Then again, facts are things that waste time.

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  • #14 said “In contrast, Filipinos and Vietnamese tend to be a bit more lower-middle class in the U.S.”

    I don’t think so. see http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans/

    Both groups make more than U.S. median household income.

    I also recommend the pew study as a good complement to Razib’s blog entry, i.e. great info about intermarriage rates, hierarchy of self-identification, and such.

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  • Here’s a basic question. What the hell is an ‘Asian American’?

    At first it was east Asians, then south Asians, now I even see Persians, Arabs etc. included. If so, then why not east-Ural white Russians?

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  • A few secondary thoughts.

    1. I agree with Razib that I think within certain cohorts the second generation leaning more secular probably plays a major role. I would expect that for Korean Christians this plays the biggest role, because their children are most likely to end up integrated into upper-middle class secular white culture, which would tend to both secularize and liberalize them. In contrast, Filipinos and Vietnamese tend to be a bit more lower-middle class in the U.S., so to the extent they acculturate it can be into whatever the local lower-middle class white culture is, which could either be secular/liberal or conservative/christian depending upon the area.

    2. I wonder if by 2020 we’ll see the census formally distinguish between South Asians and East Asians? Historically we haven’t had to because South Asians have been such a small group, but clearly that’s rapidly changing.

    3. I am curious to see what will happen in the next decade with the large Asian communities which have sprung up around Houston and Atlanta. Will Asian Americans there acculturate into the dominant Asian-American norm of Democratic-identification, or acculturate into the white suburban norm for the region of conservative Republicanism? A lot of Democrats take the former as a given (as it was what happened in Los Angeles, eventually), but it’s unclear to me that we should take from this a universal model.

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  • #11, click the links and you will see who they are.

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  • Religion captures a lot of it, probably most of it.
    Also, anecdotally, Asian-Americans in general tend to be cynical about ideology. I dont find a lot of Asians who buy the notion that Republicans have a strikingly different “free-market” ideology compared to Democrats. They both look like crony-capitalists, with somewhat different tribes being invited to join the crony pool. And it looks like the Democrats are OK with Hindus, Buddhists, whatever (even “moderate Muslims”) joining the party, while Republicans look too White, too Christian and too full of Rush Limbaugh type bullcrap.
    I am not saying Asian-Americans are right to be so cynical, just that they frequently are.
    Just anecdotally, I know several Asian doctors who voted Republican..but only and only for the sake of their own tax rate/expectation of cut in govt funds directed towards certain private practice doctors by Obama. The rest of the propaganda of freedom, liberty, enterprise and guns didnt register one bit. In short, if part of the game is “marketing”, then the Republicans main marketing pitch seemed directed at someone else. Republicans were not so subtly advertising that their circle is really meant for Christian-White-Confederacy types. That probably matters.

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  • Who exactly are the Asian American Christians? The only Asian countries with substantial Christian populations are the Phillippines, South Korea and parts of China like Hong Kong. Most of the others would be Buddhist, Muslim or Hindu.

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  • “Since psychologists widely regard the SAT as an IQ test, Asians worldwide have become much smarter and more educated during a short time frame. ”

    Are you proposing that Asian IQs noticeably rose worldwide in 13 years? IQ is highly correlated with intelligence, and intelligence is highly heritable. The selection event that could produce a noticeable change worldwide in one generation would have had to have been newsworthy, on the order of a billion dead/sterilized. I suppose that you could be talking about some sort of Flynn effect, but that is more a limitation of testing than an actual change in intelligence. Thus one would not expect the effects to extend into non-testing areas. Thus SAT improvements related to a Flynn effect would not affect voting.

    I think that a more reasonable explanation is that continual adjustments to and the and renorming of the SAT has resulted in improved Asian performance. If the group as a whole is declining in quality while scores stay the same, then a subgroup that doesn’t decline in quality will see scores increase.

    So then we come back to religion. The religious changes would come from recent immigrants being less likely to be Christian, along with young people becoming atheists.

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  • or that the respondents are flawed in their responses or otherwise not indicative of their actual positions?

    there are no ‘actual positions.’ to a great extent these sentiments are vague and content-free. look at how people vote. not what they say (e.g., lots of blacks and hispanics espouse social conservatism, but always vote dem).

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  • #7. Do you mean to imply that the survey is flawed in its design, or that the respondents are flawed in their responses or otherwise not indicative of their actual positions? Just to want have some clarifications on your objections to this particular results section.

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  • re: de-christianization. yes, immigration #1 factor. but remember, in the same period the number of those with ‘no religion’ in the whole population doubled. wouldn’t be surprised if some of the japanese americans (for example) who were xtian in the past have children who are irreligious. even in 1990 asian american youth were very secular (kosmin noted this).

    #5, sure. but do you actually believe that’s persuasive? if you don’t, keep posting stuff like that. if you are just throwing that out there, don’t waste my time.

    #6, you need to read more about identity politics and american history. you take survey data way too seriously. remember, these are the moronic electorate who want the ‘government to say out of my medicare.’ indian americans are affluent, so they should be sympathetic to free enterprise. but they see in republicans an existential threat to their identity. no way they’ll vote with that party.

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  • Maybe this one is so low hanging, its now rotting on the ground….

    Just noticed this from the Pew Survey you linked to:

    Even among the ostensibly strong Republican leaning Asian Protestant Evangelical group, the gap is striking for the preference of Bigger Govt, More Services. Other groups are even more biased towards that direction (almost 2 to 1 for Catholics, Buddhists). The big (and shocking!) exception seems to be Indian Americans (labeled as Hindu), which were the most evenly divided on that question despite being, as mentioned before, among the most stalwart of Dem voting Asians. (I had to rub my eyes a couple of times just to make sure I wasn’t seeing things! ) And of course, White Christians as a whole show the exact opposite tendency.

    Perhaps they simply have a much more different conception of government as a whole vs contemporary “anti-statist” Republican ideology, especially compared with the “slash and burn” Tea Party types in the past 2-3 years? Or something just isn’t getting translated well. And on the other hand, you have the Democratic party nationally and in blue states (where the vast majority of Asians live) constantly trumpeting how they’ll make govt work for you, that type of thing. It will be very surprising if this does not explain a significant part of the recent strong tilting towards the Dems by them.

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  • “if you want to present another model, show me the data.”

    Okay. From 1998 to 2011, Asian SAT participation rose from 67% (57% 1999 trough) to 109% (117% 2008 peak). That is a 63% jump in 13 years or a 105% increase from trough to peak in 9 years. (ACT participation rose from 22% to 41%, an 86% jump.) Numbers in excess of 100% probably represent foreign students, whom the Census does not count. However, those students, I would presume, will likely attend American universities, and many will naturalize. In those 13 years, Asian SAT scores improved such that their math subtest advantage over whites grew from 0.3 to 0.6 standard deviations, and this trend appears to apply equally to foreign Asian students and Asian-American students. Since psychologists widely regard the SAT as an IQ test, Asians worldwide have become much smarter and more educated during a short time frame. Intelligence and education correlate with atheism and liberal political beliefs. Thus, the facts are consistent with the view that both religious identity and liberal political persuasions are symptomatic of conformity to the values of baby-boomer academics, which fits an appreciation for admirable Confucian morals or a vile racist stereotype, depending upon one’s mood.

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  • Peter -

    I’d presume the difference is in part due to radically different components of the Asian population.

    From 2000 to 2010, the growth of the Asian American population was 43%. However, the growth in the Indian American population was 70%. Although smaller groups, the Pakistani-American population grew by 133%, and the Bangladeshi-American population by 203%.

    In contrast, growth of the three traditionally more Christian groups was below the cross-Asian average. Vietnamese growth was 40%, Filipino 39%, and Korean only 33%.

    Basically, the Asian-American population is getting less East/Southeast Asian, and more South Asian. If the current population trends continue, there will even be more Indian-Americans than Chinese-Americans by the end of the decade.

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  • My guess is the main driver is immigration. 2nd or 3rd generation Asians are probably mainly Christian, later immigrants probably not.

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  • What accounts for the decline in Christianity among Asians? 60% to 42% in a little over 20 years is a rather steep decline.

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  • I don’t see how anyone could disagree with this. To what factor(s) do you ascribe the change in religion?

    I’ve been looking at the data for the election along with some stuff from other blogs and it seems to be clear that the Republican party lost because it left a lot of white votes on the table, specifically working-class great lakes people, along with young middle-class conservatives and libertarians everywhere.

    In Albion’s Seed terms, I think that if the Republican party is to survive it needs to firmly grab the Quaker/midland vote In a contest between a Yankee party and a Southern party the Midlands are going to swing Yankee. In a contest between a Yankee party and a Midlands party the South is going to swing Midlands.

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  • Last week the GSS was down. I was very sad. The SDA team explains the situation:
  • here’s a free alternative to web-based survey analysis tools –

    http://usgsd.blogspot.com/search/label/general%20social%20survey%20%28gss%29

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  • yeah like that. ta :)

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  • @aq You mean something like the UK Data Service?

    Try http://nesstar.esds.ac.uk/webview/index.jsp

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  • I tried GSS nesstar utility last week. Maybe i broke it.
    I wish they had something like that for UK.

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  • Despite the real estate bubble bursting, it looks as if Florida will surpass New York in population by the next Census. I once made some quick money by betting an older gentleman that Texas had a larger population than New York. I suspect there's even more money to be made by betting people that Florida...
  • Robert Kaplan, in a new book, “The Revenge of Geography”, makes the point that the American Southwest is in danger of literally becoming unhinged from the US. He mentions that the elites are fascinated by the Middle East, but are unaware of the potential crisis right here. We have a potential failed state just south of the “border”, which isn’t really a border.

    But the people who run the country in NYC and Hollywood, are basically unaware of it. That’s boring fly over country. The elites may be in for some real shocks in the coming years.

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  • I’m pretty confident that the senior elected officials who make decisions are the same people who do, or would like to, have influence in national elections. These people would therefore know the number of electoral votes and congressional districts that each state has. I talk to some of the equivalent people, as well as representatives who don’t do much nationally, in my country, and they generally would know this information.

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  • #5, western new york = what if michigan/ohio were not swing states?

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  • The stagnation of NY’s population is a bit of a surprise at first glance, but brings to mind my impressions on driving through Buffalo and Rochester — once part of the industrial / manufacturing heartland, but now shadows of their former selves.

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  • I wonder how well you could do betting people that Vietnam is bigger than Germany.

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  • I’m glad to see California’s population continuing to grow so rapidly. I was driving on the 101 last Friday during rush hour and it was practically empty. Just shot right home like a greased pig. Yup, we also have far more jobs than people. In fact, all those people moving in aren’t enough to fill all the wonderful job openings we have.

    So please, save California and finally open it up to hypermigration!

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  • This is probably why politics often feels like the ’80s versus the ’60s.

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  • When I was a child (in the ’80s) I learned that Alaska, the state with the most land, had the lowest population. It wasn’t until I (briefly) moved to Wyoming as an adult that I learned that Alaska had edged into #49, outpacing Wyoming and ruining the irony.

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  • If you had the sense that Paul Ehrlich and Garrett Hardin are very much figures of the 1970s nexus of environmentalism and population control, it seems you are right. According to Google Ngrams mention of these topics has been declining since peaking during the oil crisis, in the afterglow of the influence of the late...
  • 20 – The Earth’s surface above water has actually been very well explored, and there are not going to be any big surprises. (Underwater is less well explored, but, well, that’s hard to get to). And the thing is, the easily accessible metals are already all gone! In the time of the ancient Greeks there were hills in Spain where, after a big fire, you could find silver melting right out of the ground. Not any more. In fact I am quite certain that there is no longer any place on Earth where copper or tin can be mined with Neolithic technology; therefore, whatever else happens, there will never be another Bronze Age.

    I also think technological collapse could happen fairly easily, via any number of routes. Highly complicated and interdependent systems are vulnerable to all sorts of unexpected cascading failures. Here is one possibility: nuclear proliferation; followed by a local nuclear war somewhere, brought on by creeping resource shortages; followed by some sort of nuclear winter; followed by widespread famine and chaos in heavily populated countries; followed by universal social collapse, as even those parts of the world left relatively unscathed find they can no longer acquire all the trade goods they need to maintain a high technology society. If you don’t like that scenario, I could certainly come up with others. And common to all of them is one fact: the bigger our population, the greater the stress on our social fabric, and the more likely we will find ourselves in a worst case scenario.

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  • Albert Bartlett has good information (free) on exponential growth. He’s a professor emeritus from Colorado-Boulder. I’ve seen his work plagiarized by quite a few.

    http://www.albartlett.org/

    I love those “1 minute to midnight” analogies.

    The rule of 70 is good to know. Sometimes, it’s called the rule of 72.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_70

    Basically, for small growth rates, take 70 and divide the growth rate (in percent) to get the doubling time. So, if you had a population or bank balance or whatever growing at 5% annually, then 70/5=14. It doubles in about 14 years. It’s an artifact of logs (log of 1+x is roughly x for small x).

    There’s a export land model for oil that is pretty scary. It’s not just peak oil or plateaued oil, but these oil producing nations have extremely high population growth rates, so internal consumption will take away from export.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

    A report from Citi, no doubt using the elements of the export land model, states that the Kingdom of SA could run out of oil to export by 2030 even if their oil production can remain constant.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9523903/Saudis-may-run-out-of-oil-to-export-by-2030.html

    Also, do y’all realize that we eat fossil fuels? Carbos are easily synthesized from sunlight from plants, but what about proteins? With the exception of some legumes, plants need nitrogen fertilizer to create protein. But not atmospheric nitrogen. Plants need some fixed nitrogen, like ammonium nitrates. Where does this come from? Natural gas. Natural gas, CH4, gets reformed to hydrogen, then is combined with nitrogen (fractional distillation from the atmosphere), then there’s the Haber-Bosch process…. and we have our ammonia as the building block for fertilizer. When the natural gas runs out, the fertilizer runs out. What will be the world’s population when this happens? Well, I’ll be dead by then…

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  • 5 – Right, but it may have affected how ‘smart’ people answered. Like Karl, I don’t believe overpopulation is or will be a problem, but I would have to agree with the question as worded.

    18 – A very common error is to badly underestimate how big the Earth really is. Humans have actually explored and mined only a small fraction of the planet. We’ve barely touched the oceans and even on land we have only extensively explored a few miles down in a few regions (even in the heavily explored United States, new reserves are being discovered).

    Technological collapse would indeed be fatal, but just think about what would be required to bring that about globally.

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  • Most of the discussion I see about this topic is about differences in consumption patterns which also ties into economic fears about China, India, etc i.e. the growth is in a class of consumer. so the rise in the idea might not be as much about environmentalism as thinking there will be some kind of realignment (they took er jerbs)

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  • The asteroid belt has enough metal in it to support trillions of people.

    Sure. (Although mining it and getting those metals back to Earth in sufficiently large quantities strikes me as rather more difficult than many people seem to think, and it probably isn’t something that we’ll see in our lifetimes).

    But we have to get there first! My concern is that Earth’s resources are already so depleted that if we had some sort of technological collapse no recovery would ever be possible, so we would never get there. And even if we got to the asteroid belt, and started mining it, a technological collapse on Earth would still be disastrous, because the miners would almost certainly be dependent on support from Earth.

    So we need to be very, very, very careful. And I’m having a hard time seeing us being that careful, because nobody is thinking in the really long run. And the bigger our population, the closer we skate to the edge, and the more difficult the task becomes.

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  • 16 – The asteroid belt has enough metal in it to support trillions of people.

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  • Personally I don’t believe even our present population is sustainable in the long run — the important question of course being what one means by “the long run.” Many people think about the long run in terms of their grandchildren, so they see the long run as maybe 70 or 100 years. But I think of it in terms of ancient Greece and Rome, or the first farmers, or the end of the last ice age, and I have an extremely difficult time imagining how the Earth can support seven billion people at anything like our current life styles over such periods. The problem is not so much energy — the sun will be shining for a long time — but other resources. We are furiously digging anything of value out of the ground an scattering it all over the landscape, and there is only so much to dig up! Jeremy Grantham put it well in a recent GMO newsletter:

    … entropy in metals is merciless. However hard we try to recycle and however
    low our growth in physical output, metals will still slip slowly through our fingers
    . They are never replaced.

    What I am most afraid of is a collapse that can never be recovered from, because there will be no more copper or tin or oil or coal accessible without advanced technologies, and no way to redevelop advanced technologies without them. Unless we are very careful, or very lucky, I think there is a disturbingly high possibility that the long term future of the human race may turn out to be a million years of wood and stone and iron.

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  • 12 -

    A smart person, all things considered, should be able to use reason to discern which argument is more flimsy. But only a rare subset of the bright actually contribute something worthwhile to the greater corpus of human knowledge. Most passively absorb knowledge – knowledge which happens to be more correct than in the past because we’ve developed a process (the scientific method) to separate truth from falsehood. The smarter you are, the more likely you’ll be exposed to a great deal of this corpus, and find it personally engaging.

    That said, in matters of basic ideology, or anything which a person has chosen not to reflect upon to any great degree, I wouldn’t expect most bright people to be superior to average. If reason mainly existed for naval-gazing about our own beliefs, it would be useless in both life-threatening decisions as well as in-group social interactions. Indeed, I think all things considered intelligence makes both those right and wrong more intractable, as unlike the dull, they’re always able to come up with some plausible defense for their beliefs.

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  • 11 -

    While your argument makes logical sense, I’d like to see some data showing this to be the case.

    AFAIK there’s been no case as of yet where natural population growth declined and then rose once again, despite our being 2-3 generations into a global decline in fertility now. Even in the case of Israel, which arguably would be a case (where secular Jews are falling as a percent of the population, and the ultra-orthodox are rising) there hasn’t been a big change. From 1990 to 2009, the Jewish fertility rate only rose from 2.7 to 2.9. The Muslim fertility rate actually fell from 4.7 to 3.7, which meant the total fertility rate was unchanged at 3.0.

    If it’s not the case for Israel, I have a hard time thinking it’s the case in any developed or semi-developed country. In the U.S. at least while very low fertility seems to be a upper-middle class thing, as is often the case, others who aspire to these norms follow them to a lesser degree. Black family sizes for example, although still slightly larger than white families, are essentially falling in tandem (although overall fertility rates are higher, since fewer black women never become mothers). The same thing is true, from what I have read, of most Muslim immigrants to Europe – within a generation their fertility rates are also very low.

    I think part of the reason why it hasn’t manifested yet is for the most part differential birth rates are mainly due to cultural factors. People from pro-natalist minorities in the U.S., for example, like Mormons and Amish, may have many kids, but there is nothing inherent to their DNA which makes them want to have more kids. Some of their children leave the community each generation (for the Amish, about 25%), and group norms themselves may change with time to closer approach societal-wide norms. Until the cultural portions of fertility differences are exhausted, we’d expect the general anti-natalist social norm to work to suppress birth rates.

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  • In response to Karl Zimmerman

    The opinions of smart people do not only reflect signaling but also real reasoning and better knowledge – where knowledge and insight is possible. If there is no correlation between intelligence and being ‘correct’ on controversial questions then there will be no IQ related differences of opinion. Where differences of opinion do correlate with IQ then its extremely likely that reason, insight and knowledge are relevant – especially when one controls for interests that may differ along IQ lines e.g. income, education, etc as I do.

    I therefore disagree that “there isn’t a strong correlation with being smart and “correct” on anything considered controversial.”

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  • In response to Karl Zimmerman,

    Birth rates are declining due to changing lifestyles, and this will hypothetically result in an end or even reversal of population growth, but IMO this will be temporary. Natural selection will ensure that the population will eventually start growing again, unless natural checks on reproduction return (e.g. food shortage), or we deliberately regulate fecundity. People who have many children for whatever reason will become overrepresented in the gene pool.

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  • This is very consistent with my own findings about who is breeding these days, seen here and here.

    In perhaps the height of irony, the ones most concerned about overpopulation are also the ones least contributing to it.

    #6 has the right idea. Energy isn’t really a problem in the long run since we have more energy than we will likely ever need in the form of thorium, and perhaps hydrogen and boron if fusion ever gets off the ground. This is not even considering the prospect of vastly improved ability to tap solar energy, which is certainly a watershed energy source in the long run.

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  • God will take care every thing. It makes sense for God believers.

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  • 6 -

    My own experience is most younger (post-boomer) environmentalists who aren’t wacko deep ecologists are somewhat pro-nuclear power. George Monbiot famously switched his position to being pro-nuclear in the aftermath of the Fukishima disaster (basically he decided since nuclear accidents are so rare, the damage from the occasional one every few decades was far less than that caused by fossil fuels every day.

    8 -

    I’m not sure why you think intelligence would correlate with more correct policy views.

    Yes, it’s true that smart people tend to be more right when it comes to scientifically recognized truth But they accept these truths because they are taught in school, or because they pick up the social signalling that a smart person is supposed to believe them. The rightness of the ideas has nothing to do with it, which is why there isn’t a strong correlation with being smart and “correct” on anything considered controversial. Most people, regardless of intelligence, pick up individual ideas and beliefs without reflecting upon them at all.

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  • Razib I repeated the analysis of POPWLTH – because I’m interested in the intelligence as a means of identifying views more likely to be correct (see my Smart Vote concept at Freakostats) – and I found that intelligence (Wordsum) is completely unrelated it, either on its own or when controlling for other factors such as education, income, sex, age, race, religious belief, political ideology, year etc.

    That this is not an issue illuminated by IQ differences of opinion is strange because I would have thought that some degree of knowledge is possible on this question.

    I did however confirm that atheists are more likely to believe in overpopulation.

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  • “From what I have heard, many of the same academics who warn us about global warming support a switch to nuclear energy as the best option”

    Global-warming alarmist James Hansen is a big proponent of nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuel use. As a right-winger, I feel this greatly enhances the credibility of his alarmism.

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  • #1

    I think overpopulation wouldn’t be a problem as long as we could ween off of fossil fuels and focus on future energy. Energy, after all, goes hand-in-hand with standard of living yeah?. One of the main problems “environmentalists” have with 3rd generation+ nuclear energy is that they “generate nuclear materials closer to weapons grade”. In any case it’s the right of these nations to pursue peaceful nuclear energy. What about Throium? From what I have heard, many of the same academics who warn us about global warming support a switch to nuclear energy as the best option.. Despite Green party rhetoric.

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  • Is it to be taken literally as current rates extended indefinitely into the future?

    you really think people are assessing it like this? the average person can’t even figure out compounding growth in their credit card bill ;=)

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  • By some amazing coincidence, the same groups also tend to lament all the dumbasses and religious obsessives they have to share the planet with.

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  • i get the impression that many religious people don’t care much about resource management/pollution, etc. because they think god put everything we need to live on earth for a reason so we don’t need to worry about it. (animals were put here for us to eat, trees to cut down, etc.) then i often hear them say that the world is going to end anyway so it wouldn’t matter even if we did ruin the Earth. i’m thinking: “yeah, it WILL end…in about 500 million years.”

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  • This is kind of a weird question. Is it to be taken literally as current rates extended indefinitely into the future? Then no that couldn’t be sustained forever. It’s also not the current trajectory of growth rates (which is falling).

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  • Even though I said in another thread I don’t think overpopulation is a problem, I’d agree with the above statement as it is worded. The problem is “present rate” has continued to decline since the early 1960s. So while I’d agree that the current rate of 1.1% or so per annum is unsustainable, I have every reason to think that the same general downward trend of growth will continue for decades to come, absent some major medical advances like “curing” aging.

    Would it be great for the environment if we could drop the growth rate even more? Absolutely, although I’m not sure we’re quite ready yet to deal with a global demographic hump of oldsters, along with the drag on real economic growth caused by a shrinking labor force. We will see in the next few decades with how China plays out the wisdom of a forced demographic transition before an economy is fully developed.

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  •   In the post below I took the time out to link to the GSS, as well as posting my exact queries. As payment for this consideration the first comment was absolute drivel. I understand people have political opinions, but I'm not too interested in your opinions. You may be interested in your opinions, but...
  • #35, i think you’re right and i’m wrong.

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  • For age the values are straightforward. Older people have higher values. There isn’t a strong trend. Similarly with socieconomic index. The magnitudes for the beta are not high because intelligence and education probably is what is really driving the socioeconomic differences.

    It appears to me that there is a strong trend for age, though I may be wrong about the meaning of these numbers or this may be quibbling over words.

    Are these regression coefficients standardized? I couldn’t find the answer in the documentation, but recoding them seems to show that they are not standardized in the default settings. (If it is possible to switch to standardized coefficients, please tell me how.)

    I think it is misleading to say “the magnitudes for the beta are not high,” or otherwise draw attention to the magnitudes of raw coefficients. (Also, “beta” usually means standardized.) The displayed raw coefficient for age is small because the units are logit/year. For most of the categories a sex change is worth an age change of 25 years, excepting homosexuals, where it is only worth 10 years.

    As a proxy for strength of these coefficients, we could use statistical significance. In the case of communists, the T-statistic and p-value for age are strong, though not as strong as for degree and wordsum. But in the case of homosexuals, age is stronger than degree, though weaker than wordsum.

    You are right to say that degree and wordsum are the most important, but I think you are wrong to discount age. Maybe I’m misunderstanding how much you discount it, but still I think you are wrong to draw attention to the magnitude of coefficients and to call them “beta.”

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  • Here is entertaining piece about failure of Obama

    http://www.nsfwcorp.com/dispatch/war-nerd-obamas-wars

    To make simple people happy is not about doing right thing.

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  • 32 -

    From my social sciences background in undergrad, “critical thinking” is mainly about being able to identify the perspective of an arguer, as well as identifying any logical flaws in arguments themselves. This also includes self-criticism. I do think it is a learned skill (as human instinct is to trust authority and to not have a logically coherent world view), but I don’t think that every individual has an equal capacity to learn it.

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  • Is the teaching of critical thinking supposed to be similar to “learning how to learn”? A technical term used for that is “transfer of learning” which Bryan Caplan often references in preparation for his education book.

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  • Intelligence challenged people want simple answer. Freedom of speech only confused them. They want simple brain-wash message, not figuring out your own information.

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  • Many western countries do have something akin blasphemy laws – but the target usually is public safety and thus avoiding large-scale emotional unrest – not protecting specific religious expressions.

    The interview of the Egyptian PM is a good example of how Muslim countries are struggling with the free speech concept: to save face in his own country, he seems to be suggesting advances in the dialogue with western countries that will never happen:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19613768

    (the above video at my listening contained stronger language not reflected in the transcription below:)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19611072

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  • The basic results don’t seem all that surprising; cf. the results on high-RWA (“authoritarian follower”) personalities mentioned in Robert Altemeyer’s “The Authoritarians”.

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  • While different cultures DO have different taboos, one thing to note here is that post-enlightenment Western values are so dominant (and in many cases, so much more efficiently associated with capitalist productivity) and the opposition to them is so incoherent and self-contradictory that any policy of “to each his own” is practically hopeless. The “Muslim world” wants to keep certain taboos. But its elites also want many many other things. Those other things drag taboo-breaking technologies and ideas in with them. People can explode and riot all they want. blasphemy is here to stay.

    A lot of “secular” struggles are of course part of why America gets abused in particular (Israel, Iraq etc) but even if the USA did not support Israeli occupation of Arab lands and did not launch invasions under false pretences, blasphemy would still happen. And American embassies would still be targeted because some of the blasphemy will invariably come from the largest advanced country in the world.

    This is a convoluted point, and I wish I could explain it better and in greater detail, but let me sum up with an example: If there was no US invasion force, Afghanistan and Pakistan would see Jihadi violence and extreme steps (including drone attacks, whether flown by China or Russia or India) against them in any case. Even if there was no Pakistan that would happen. There are certain ideological trends that are fundamentally incompatible with the modern world. Islamism of the type that maintains such strict taboos on the faintest public expressions of doubt about orthodox Islamic norms is one of them. Certain notions of Jihadist supremacy are another…not because they are unimaginable but because they are practically bound to cause conflict AND to fail.
    Something like that.

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