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    There are two myths which are deeply imprinted in the minds of most US Americans which are extremely dangerous and which can result in a war with Russia. The first myth is the myth of US military superiority. The second myth is the myth of US invulnerability. I believe that it is therefore crucial to...
  • “During the first Cold War both American and Soviet forces took great care to avoid direct conflict, rightly afraid it could lead to uncontrolled escalation.”

    Did you know, that it was WALL STREET BANKERS that FINANCED Russia’s TECHNOLOGICAL rise to Super-Power status, from at least 1945 to 1965? Read Stanford Professor Antony C. Sutton’s book THE BEST ENEMY MONEY CAN BUY. Now, WHY, exactly, would the (((Western 1% CENTRAL BANKERS))) (predominantly counterfeit “Jews”, by the way) SEEK TO EMPOWER (((BOLSHEVIK/SOVIET))) RUSSIA by FINANCING its RISE to Super-Power status? Oops! I think I answered my own question.

    One question: (((WHO))), exactly, would BENEFIT, from starting a WW III between historically WHITE, CHRISTIAN AMERICA, and historically WHITE, ORTHODOX CHRISTIAN RUSSIA? Oops! I just answered my own question, again.

    ALL WARS ARE (((BANKERS))) WARS

    “O, what a tangled web (((we))) weave when first (((we))) practice to deceive” ~ Walter Scott

    Parentheses added. When are AMERICANS going to WAKE THE HELL UP?! Seriously.

    Here is what needs to go mainstream:

    [MORE]

    The so-called “Sephardi” “Jews” (10% of all “Jews” today) are of BERBER-ARAB descent. The remaining 90% of so-called “Jews” today (the “Ashkenazi”) are of SLAVO-TURKIC descent. This means, that they have NO LEGITIMATE CLAIM to being the direct lineal descendants of the original, true IBERI (Hebrews) of the Old Testament era! NONE. WHAT-SO-EVER. Read Paul Wexler’s work in _The Non-Jewish Origins of the Sephardic Jews_, and _The Ashkenazic Jews: A Slavo-Turkic People in Search of a Jewish Identity_. Also, read THE GREAT DECEPTION: SYRIA, BRITAIN AND THE ROMAN CONSPIRACY, by Comyns Beaumont, IF you wish to discover the TRUE geographic location of the people, places & events described in both the Old & New Testament.

    And, (((they))) ADMIT AS MUCH, in (((their))) own publications:

    Encyclopedia Judaica 1971, Vol 10:23: “Jews began to call themselves Hebrews and Israelites in 1860 [AD].”

    Page 3 of the 1980 Jewish Almanac states: “Strictly speaking it is incorrect to call an Ancient Israelite a Jew or to call a contemporary [modern] Jew an Israelite or a Hebrew.”

    (You see, what these BERBER-ARABS & SLAVO-TURKS did, was HIJACK the very much VENERATED name & identity of the TRUE, ORIGINAL IBERI, or IBRI (Hebrews) of the Old Testament era (~ highly-esteemed in the minds of Western Christians ~) on their way to HIJACKING the entirety of Western Civilization! When did they do it? 1860 AD. Do you see what they did? They HIJACKED, and appropriated FOR THEMSELVES, the very NAME & IDENTITY of the true, original Hebrews of the Old Testament era, thereby claiming to be their direct lineal descendants, when, in fact, they are NO SUCH THING. Please, wake up some people in your sphere of influence, by sharing these VITAL HISTORICALLY-DOCUMENTED FACTS WITH THEM! Let’s try to save America, shall we?

    With regard to the meaning of ZION-ism, read these three extremely relevant quotes about “Jew”-ish SUPREMACISM (i.e., ZION-ism):

    1) “We Jews regard our race as superior to all humanity, and look forward, not to its ultimate union with other races, but to its triumph over them.” (Goldwin Smith, Jewish Professor of Modern History at Oxford University, October, 1981)

    2) “We Jews, we are the destroyers and will remain the destroyers. Nothing you can do will meet our demands and needs. We will forever destroy because we want a world of our own.” (You Gentiles, by Jewish Author Maurice Samuels, p. 155).

    3) “We will have a world government whether you like it or not. The only question is whether that government will be achieved by conquest or consent.” (Jewish Banker Paul Warburg, February 17, 1950, as he testified before the U.S. Senate).

    Source: 1001 Quotes By and About Jews: https://www.stormfront.org/posterity/13texan/q351-400.htm

    WHY, is all the foregoing SO VITAL for ALL AMERICANS to FULLY comprehend? Read on:

    Study the history of the so-called “Russian” “Revolution”. It was (((Rothschild)))-agents, (((Paul Warburg))), and (((Jacob Schiff))) who FINANCED fellow-tribesman (((Lev Bronstein))) alias (((Leon Trotsky))), FROM WALL STREET!, to the tune of $20 Million (USD) in gold, when (((Bronstein/Trotsky))) boarded a ship in New York Harbor!, bound for Russia, and the (((Rothschild)))-financed overthrow (really massacre) of the 300-year-old ORTHODOX CHRISTIAN Romanov Family Dynasty. It is historically significant, that the so-called “Russian” “Revolution” was a FAKE, PHONY, COUNTERFEIT, IMPOSTER “Jew”-ish operation, from beginning to end, and from top to bottom.

    All America Must Know the Terror That is Upon Us

    https://www.amfirstbooks.com/IntroPages/ToolBarTopics/Articles/Featured_Authors/strom,_kevin/kevin_strom_works/Kevin_Strom_1991-1994/Kevin_A._Strom_19930814-ADV_All_America_Must_Know_the_Terror_That_Is_Upon_Us.html

    Again, WHY is ALL the foregoing information SO VITAL for EVERY AMERICAN to comprehend? Read on:

    1) Dual Citizenship — Loyal to Whom?, by Dan Eden for View Zone:

    http://www.viewzone.com/dualcitizen.html

    2) Zionists Are a Fifth Column in America:

    http://www.henrymakow.com/zionists_fifth_column_in_ameri.html

    3) How Many U.S. Politicians Can Counterfeit “Israel” Buy with $6.3 Billion Dollars?

    https://needtoknow.news/2018/03/many-politicians-can-buy-6-3-billion-dollars/

    It’s NOT the “New” World Order. It’s the counterfeit “Jew” World Order.

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  • Inconsistency with regard to Russia is nothing new. The Soviet Union’s military was ridiculed – ramshackle etc. Yet at the same time it was presented as a juggernaut that could punch from East Germany to the Channel ports in 72 hours. Viktor Suvorov, a defector, ridiculed the Soviet Army in The Liberators in ways that should logically have posed the question as to whether it was really a threat. But joined-up thinking did not exist and still does not.

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  • @Avery
    {Or is it anti-semitic to mention the belligerent ziocons?}

    Is it so-called anti-Semitic to mention the reptilian ziocon filth who are actively engaged in the extermination of Christians in Middle East?


    {Are you really serious about the occupation of Russia’s huge landmass?}

    Anyone who wants to get the Stalingrad-treatment must go ahead and _try_ to occupy any piece of Russian landmass.

    "Karaganov*: Russia will never again fight on its own territory ..."

    After (Soviet/Russia) saved Europe from the Nazi menace at a cost ~25-27 million people, Russia has earned the right to nuke any country who dares to invade RF. US nuked two Japanese civilian targets, because Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, a _military_ target.
    SU/Russia lost ~15-17 million civilians to genocidal Nazi invaders.
    Enough already.
    Next time Neocon reptiles cross the border of RF - Nuke'em ALL.
    (and let God sort them out...)

    ___________________
    *
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-putin-foreign-policy-advisor-sergey-karaganov-a-1102629.html

    When the time comes, China will have no difficulty occupying, controlling, and settling that territory. China can settle more people there than the Russians had.

    An old, slowly dwindling population of actual Russians won’t stand a chance.

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  • @DESERT FOX
    The Zionists did 911 and it was an attack so blatant that Netanyahu said 911 was good for Israel and the Zionists did the attack on the USS Liberty and monsters like these Zionists will not blink at watching the U.S. and Russia destroy themselves, the Zionists are straight from Hell.

    I have only one friend or acquaintance who’s absolutely happy at the prospect of millions of Russians dying or suffering in destitution if the US finally “teaches them a lesson.” He’s Jewish.

    His girlfriend, a Jew who was born and raised in Russia, wishes them nothing but the worst.

    It’s good that those stereotypes about Jews never being loyal to their host countries and peoples aren’t true.

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  • @Sergey Krieger
    Soviet era generations were far more ready to serve in any adverse conditions and draft was considered honorable duty with almost every guy serving 2 years. Despite as you say support current young generation tends to avoid draft and service was reduced to just one year. Still, I have no doubt on case of aggression there will be far more Russians willing to get drafted than Americans. It is just Russian peculiarity.

    Most young white Americans will still show up if America is truly threatened here at home.

    African-“Americans” won’t show up, and they wouldn’t be trustworthy if drafted.

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  • @yeah
    Your main posts were brilliant. But Re China being the USA's real long term rival, not Russia, what is the basis of believing that? Russia simply cannot be written off given its scientific and technical advanced development. The problem is its economy and to some extent the dividedness of its people. After seeing the overall revival of Russia after the Yeltsin era disaster, all possibilities must be treated as being open. Russia has the kind of natural and water resources that any country can only envy and that China badly lacks.

    Nor is inherent hostile rivalry among the three poles of power (US, Russia, China) a long term given. Things can change for the better, or perhaps I should say 'better'. In any case, it does seem to be that the world's peoples are evolving similar attitudes and mindsets, down to believing in similar identity/gender/LGBTQ nonsense. As the young in these and other countries tweet, chatter, and blog on similar topics, in similar sound-bites, it becomes harder to imagine them as serious warriors.

    Then there remains the problem of predicting the actions of the EU and its main countries. Can we simply extrapolate the status quo of their current unconditional alliance with the US into the long term future?

    I think long term predictions are simply not possible. In the short term we are muddling through, one gaffe at a time, sometimes multiple ones a day or month. The real danger lies in the day-to-day policy blunders that the US is increasingly committing. If these can be mitigated, the long term can be left to evolve on its own - without predictions and interventions, especially interventions.

    The Russian population is inadequate already, and it is not growing. Russia can’t lose a lot of men and persist intact, while China can. Russia can’t lose millions of people fighting on two fronts and survive with a large ready army; China can.

    As for extrapolating european actions into the future, of course not. The European countries will soon bear little resemblance to their recent and historical selves, racially and culturally and economically and politically. That will change their foreign policies.

    I don’t see a Muslim-dominated white-hating England, France, Germany, or Italy being willing to join the us gov’s military adventures, particularly against Muslim peoples but more generally as well. And that is the near and almost certain future for the countries mentioned (as well as the tiny, militarily insignificant countries in Europe like the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium, which are all fairly rapidly going Muslim and African too).

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  • @Rich
    Does the Saker actually believe that conventional weapons would have any effect on a war between the US and Russia? Does anyone? As soon as either nation's territory was threatened, the nukes would fly and the war would be over. It's that simple. There can be no limited war between the US and Russia. The chance for a semi-limited war between the US and China is probably still possible, but that time is quickly fading. Soon the Chinese will be as invulnerable as the US and Russia, if they haven't reached that point already. The purpose of the US conventional force now is to keep smaller US allies safe from invasion, and to intimidate smaller nations that act against US interests. Probably time for the Saker to get off this comparison of US and Russian conventional force showdown.

    “Probably time for the Saker to get off this comparison of US and Russian conventional force showdown.”
    ____________________

    And his incessant assertions of what he claims “the majority of Americans think.”

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  • @Robert Magill

    You can think of the RS-28 Sarmat as a successor of the already formidable RS-36 Voevoda (SS-18 Satan in US classification) missile: it is a heavy, very powerful, intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (warheads):

    Weight: 100 tons
    Payload: 10 tons
    Warheads: 10 to 15
    Hypersonic glide vehicles: 3-24 (that’s the Yu-71 we will discuss below)
    Range: 10,000km
    Guidance: Inertial , satellite, astrocelestial
    Trajectory: FOBS-capable
     
    Now deployed on railroad cars throughout the forests of Siberia therefore almost invisable.

    On 9/11 the loss of 3000 innocent people placed the vast majority of US Americans into a total state of shock which resulted in a massive over-reaction at all levels (which was, of course, exactly the purpose of this false flag operation by the US and Israeli deep states).

     

    Not helpful in an otherwise fact-laden report.

    robertmagill.wordpress.com

    Yup, that pretty much killed the article for me.

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  • Not definitive proof of course but a good example of the US mindset
    “Van Riper was extremely critical of the scripted nature of the new exercise and resigned from the exercise in the middle of the war game. Van Riper later said that the Vice Admiral Marty Mayer altered the exercise’s purpose to reinforce existing doctrine and notions of infallibility within the U.S. military rather than serving as a learning experience.

    Millenium Challenge 2002
    Has anything changed?

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  • @Flavius
    Whither goes the future of US - Russia relations, no one knows; but there is little reason for optimism and there is every reason to think about the unthinkable in the hope of avoiding it.
    In my wildest imaginings at the end of Cold War I, I could not have predicted that we would have arrived here from there, reading necessary essays like the Saker's above; and the fault, regrettably, is as close to entirely on the belligerence, hubris and sheer stupidity that has been woven into our national fabric that one can get.
    The utter derangement of the Washington elites and our political obsessives over Trump's election has placed into the equation the folly that ginning up another Cold War is preferable to accepting the results of valid election. How is one to dispel madness like this that runs so wide and deep? Trump has shown himself to be no prize, isolated as he has become from his campaign promise to restore cordial and correct relations with Russia; and he has not served himself well by staffing the White House with generals and family members as if he were the chief of state in Guatemala.
    But the question remains: if Trump is deposed over spurious nonsense like Russian 'meddling,' what comes next? Does it fall on the engineers of the coup d'etat to devise some suitable punishment for Russia having 'spoiled' an American Presidential election; do they lift the ridiculously inappropriate sanctions they have already visited on Russia in gratitude for having given them the pretext for removing this troublesome President? Who knows? Our political 'masters' abetted by their media shills are in the full throes of a nervous breakdown and anything is possible.

    Remember that Guatemale would not have a bad president if the US did not interfer in the country, as it does.

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  • @Robert Magill

    You can think of the RS-28 Sarmat as a successor of the already formidable RS-36 Voevoda (SS-18 Satan in US classification) missile: it is a heavy, very powerful, intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (warheads):

    Weight: 100 tons
    Payload: 10 tons
    Warheads: 10 to 15
    Hypersonic glide vehicles: 3-24 (that’s the Yu-71 we will discuss below)
    Range: 10,000km
    Guidance: Inertial , satellite, astrocelestial
    Trajectory: FOBS-capable
     
    Now deployed on railroad cars throughout the forests of Siberia therefore almost invisable.

    On 9/11 the loss of 3000 innocent people placed the vast majority of US Americans into a total state of shock which resulted in a massive over-reaction at all levels (which was, of course, exactly the purpose of this false flag operation by the US and Israeli deep states).

     

    Not helpful in an otherwise fact-laden report.

    robertmagill.wordpress.com

    Well presented arguments.

    But people are being slow poisoned by civilian and military jets, glyphosphate and Morgellans. What if the plan is to get as many people dead as possible in as short a time as possible without any regard for dangers from their rat hole cities?
    These neocon, khazarian mafia and imperialists are truly insane and may just be trying for armageddon. Rothschilds especially are fond of making misguided interpretations of biblical predictions happen.
    A second notion, what if it is bluff to avoid Merkel getting too pally with Russia, a cold war would avoid that.
    Then there’s the Romans from their hidey hole in Greenland and the Satanic Vatican control of the EU and America’s regimes.
    And there’s the gas shortage in Britain and Russia is supplying gas to fill the gap. Another two cold spells are forecast. I haven’t seen Mrs May make very many intelligent decisions. Perhaps Boris is calling the shots as a Mason under London Sq. Mile?
    Last one, Mrs M is called a traitor for selling Britain out for EU favours. A distraction?
    That’s as far as I got thinking outside the box.
    Porton Down is a short taxi ride from the scene of the crime and has the poison.
    Also Clinton has been implicated as Skripal has evidence against her. His buddy Steele of Trump dossier fame may have been topped by Skripal to distance Clinton from the dossier. Then he was to be removed for the same reason?

    http://theduran.com/the-poisoning-of-sergei-skripal-reads-right-to-hillary-clinton-and-the-dnc/

    I doubt President Putin would happily have such a person killed.

    Thanks to the Saker for the work that went into the article. I used a couple paragraphs in my blog.

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  • Calvinball at NPR! I listened carefully to the house intelligence hearings on cspan, as they talked about Russian election meddling as the homeland security guy was asked how much more money and legislative authority they need, (to make sure they get it), – darn thing went on and on, without ANY example of any such meddling. It comes down to the unspoken criticism of alleged Russian hacks of Podesta and the DNC. They can’t actually say it because they can’t prove any of it, and as time passes, it becomes more and more absurd to accuse them of it. It took under a minute to get the emails, via timestamps on the pilfered emails, and a hack job would take much much longer. It was a insider with a memory stick.
    (Ask Assange damn it. Look into Seth Rich maybe). So they talk for hours without any detail.
    Maybe the Russians had a couple of Facebook accounts. a few bots on Twitter. but they don’t even say that so you can’t refute any detail at all, because there isn’t any given! How the hell did they manage to talk for hours without any detail at all? It is a rhetorical miracle!

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  • @Quartermaster
    You're welcome to any fantasies you wish to embrace. Putin is trying to reacquire his near abroad and has been recognized as the aggressor by everyone that matters.

    Ah, but OUR opinion has been recognized as right by everyone who matters, because people who disagree with us don’t matter.

    So we win.

    Wow, that was easy! Thanks for introducing me to that technique.

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  • @Svigor
    "Two Great American Myths"

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America. Yes, we know (((Big Media))) is obsessed with Russia's designs on our precious bodily fluids. That's as far as it goes.

    Uh-huh, right. Perhaps you can explain then why NPR can’t shut up about Russia, Russian President, keeps broadcasting interviews with “random people from Moscow”, (most of which have heavy Polish, Baltic or English accent), and have been at it for nearly a year. You know, we appreciate all the attention, but that’s way overboard. Perhaps, it’s the time that Americans start focusing on their own problems. For example: laughable education, non-existent medical care, “just wait a week, it’s probably just a virus” being a default answer to a call to pediatrician, non-existent maternal leave, social programs only applicable to preferred minorities, shrinking middle class birth rate, mass shootings becoming a norm coast to coast, insane cost of living, debt that’s 108% of GDP, ~$56,000 per capita, with 40% of american citizens not even making that much a year, before tax. I could fill up a small soft-cover with just enumeration of your internal problems before even getting to the global subjects, where you fail miserably anywhere from being actually a cohesive country to your behaviour on international arena, the only area in which you succeed being bullying defenseless countries of the size of Texas at most, but even then managing to screw it up…
    So, yank, your attempted sarcasm is just as nil as your bluff as a state.

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  • @Quartermaster
    Anyone quoting "Russia Insider," is a bloody idiot. The place is a fever swamp of morons.

    Anyone quoting “Russia Insider,” is a bloody idiot. The place is a fever swamp of morons.

    Luckily there are not that much of morons here . If not count you of course.

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  • @The Scalpel
    "Reality says that Russia with an economy roughly the size of Holland and Belgium would not be able to sustain an extended conventional war "

    I think the guys who planned Barbarrosa said the same thing

    Thank you.
    What is the definition of insanity? – “doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result” — This time they are Israel-firsters that have a flaming desire to destroy Russia.
    First, it was hospitable Iran (Persia) that was “rewarded” with Purim and “Happy is the one who seizes your infants and dashes them against the rocks” (Psalm 137:9)
    Then it was Russia that was “rewarded” with Bolshevik revolution and GULAG. Among the worst criminals were Kaganovich (Holodomor), Frankel (GULAG), Zemlyachka (Red Terror), Yagoda (secret police), and other haters of Russia culture and Russian people.
    “Ms. Roza Zemlyachka was an utterly merciless and power-crazy woman who worked as a Chekist in the Crimea together with two other Jewish serial killers; Bela Kun and Boris Feldman – their mass murdering sprees were Russian state secrets until 1990.” https://enigmachannel.wordpress.com/2015/06/10/the-worlds-most-evil-woman/

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  • @Anon
    They are a composite face of the US-propped power in Ukraine:
    1. Misha Saakishvilli (wanted in his native Georgia), a darling of the US StateDept. had been appointed a governor of Odessa in 2015 (Misha was deposed since then); currently, he is leading a "new Maidan" https://thetruthspeaker.co/tag/maidan-2017/
    2. Groysman is a Prime Minister of Ukraine: "An ally of Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, Groysman is a man in his late thirties was born to Jewish parents in Vinnytsia in west-central Ukraine. Today Jews total approximately one percent of the population in Ukraine..." http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/ukraine-prime-minister-volodymyr-groysman-to-visit-yad-vashem/2017/05/14/
    3. Biletsky is a leader of Ukrainian neo-Nazis and he is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament (no kidding): http://russia-insider.com/en/neo-nazi-leader-vows-dissolve-rada-and-depose-poroshenko-great-shut-and-do-it-already/ri19020

    Anyone quoting “Russia Insider,” is a bloody idiot. The place is a fever swamp of morons.

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    • Replies: @yurivku

    Anyone quoting “Russia Insider,” is a bloody idiot. The place is a fever swamp of morons.
     
    Luckily there are not that much of morons here . If not count you of course.
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  • @Anon
    What is the Presedent Poroschenko's current rating among Ukrainians? - 1.9%
    What was Yatz' (the Kagans' choice) rating at a time of his departure - 2%?
    Don't you like a unon of Misha Saakishvilli (wanted in his native Georgia), Groysman (a Jew) and Biletsky the neo-Nazi? They are the face of Ukraine today.
    There are also some loud talks that the corruption in Ukraine is currently worse than under the last legitimate president. Have you heard this? Or this is also Russia's fault - after three years of "independence" under the NATO/CIA watch?
    http://observer.com/2017/06/ukraine-corruption-petro-poroshenko-vladimir-putin/
    "Polls say that those who led the revolution have lost the public’s trust. According to Sofia Center for Social Studies, 82 percent of Ukrainians do not trust Andriy Parubiy, commander of the Maidan revolution and current head of Ukrainian Parliament. Eighty-one percent do not trust Minister of Interior Arsen Avakov, and 81.5 percent do not trust Head of the Council for Defense and Security Oleksandr Turchynov. Eighty-nine percent of Ukrainians do not trust Parliament, and 86.2 percent do not trust the government as a whole. Only 1.9 percent of Ukrainians trust President Petro Poroshenko. An overwhelming 78.1 percent do not. In fact, Poroshenko is so despised in Ukraine that one store in Kiev prints “Poroshenko asshole” on their receipts."

    All nice. All irrelevant. What it does show is that Ukrainians are not sheep as are Russians. Putin has drubbed his economy and everyone, except his mafia buddies, are worse off than when he came in. Ukrainians don’t like Poroshenko, but they can throw him out in the next election. Putin won’t allow such choices, as we have seen recently.

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  • @Anon
    "...you will have no objection to Russia leaving Ukraine, which Putin has been trying to tear apart for several years now, including annexing her territory in Crimea."

    This is so a yesteryear "interpretation."
    Relax, "Quartermaster." Similar to Saakishvilli's (& Israelis) headless aggression in 2008, the Kagans' revolution and "liberation" of Ukraine in 2014 have brought nothing but the infamy and hardship to the ordinary citizens. Read European press to learn about the Georgian aggression (2008) and Crimea referendum (2014). Your pro-banderite sources are obviously inadequate.
    And stop quetching about the lost revenues from Russia re the gas transit via Ukraine. Ukrainians have no choice but to beg, on their knees, the ZUSA dealers, for whom Ukraine is just a convenient and pliable patsy in a geopolitical game.

    You’re welcome to any fantasies you wish to embrace. Putin is trying to reacquire his near abroad and has been recognized as the aggressor by everyone that matters.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Ah, but OUR opinion has been recognized as right by everyone who matters, because people who disagree with us don't matter.

    So we win.

    Wow, that was easy! Thanks for introducing me to that technique.
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  • @Sergey Krieger
    The problem here is about how USA would take losing conventional war without going nuclear.

    Not very well, judging from this US DoD review (100 pages):

    https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/media/2018-Nuclear-Posture-Review-Version-2.pdf

    I found the part about training nuclear scientists/engineers and ramping up plutonium pit production to be quite funny as there are only a couple of universities in the US that have the training programs and the plutonium chemists from the Hanford 325 building are long retired.

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  • The Saker, in this piece seems to be addressing ordinary Americans regarding these myths he sees as a problem. Saker, the American people have no input into the decision to go to war with Russia. It doesn’t matter whether the average American believes these myths. The common people here are pretty much like passengers on a train, as far as US foreign policy goes.

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  • “Reality says that Russia with an economy roughly the size of Holland and Belgium would not be able to sustain an extended conventional war ”

    I think the guys who planned Barbarrosa said the same thing

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    • Replies: @annamaria
    Thank you.
    What is the definition of insanity? - "doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result" -- This time they are Israel-firsters that have a flaming desire to destroy Russia.
    First, it was hospitable Iran (Persia) that was "rewarded" with Purim and "Happy is the one who seizes your infants and dashes them against the rocks" (Psalm 137:9)
    Then it was Russia that was "rewarded" with Bolshevik revolution and GULAG. Among the worst criminals were Kaganovich (Holodomor), Frankel (GULAG), Zemlyachka (Red Terror), Yagoda (secret police), and other haters of Russia culture and Russian people.
    "Ms. Roza Zemlyachka was an utterly merciless and power-crazy woman who worked as a Chekist in the Crimea together with two other Jewish serial killers; Bela Kun and Boris Feldman – their mass murdering sprees were Russian state secrets until 1990." https://enigmachannel.wordpress.com/2015/06/10/the-worlds-most-evil-woman/
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  • agree

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  • @Michael Kenny
    There could be no better proof of Russian military inferiority and Russian vulnerability than that a Russian author feels the need to write this article! The author’s fear is palpable! The whole thing is just laid on too thick! You can just “cut to the chase”, which is the last two sentences: “Russia represents absolutely no threat to the United States or anybody else (including the three Baltic statelets)”. Russia certainly represents a threat to Ukraine! Putin’s justification, defence of supposedly persecuted Russian minorities, applies as much to the Baltic Republics as to Ukraine. The justification that his American supporters put into Putin’s mouth, namely, a supposed plan to establish NATO bases in Ukraine, applies also to the Baltic. The three republics are already members of NATO. The author thus defeats his own argument by referring to the Baltic Republics. Equally, he disingenuously postulates a land attack on Russia from the west. Why would anybody do that nowadays? Russia is most vulnerable to air attack, which can come in from all four sides at once. The “juiciest” targets are the string of oilfields spread out along the Arctic coast from the Urals to the Lena, which are very easy to hit across the Arctic (Russia is Canada’s northern neighbour!) Also, the hysterical tone of that last sentence shows just how scared the author is of an attack. Part of that may well be that it seems highly improbable that young Russians will fight for the gangsters who have been robbing them for the last 25 years. They’ve all been reminded recently of the virtues of a military mutiny in bringing down an evil regime! It is also highly improbable that an order to launch a nuclear weapon would be obeyed (that actually happened in Soviet days). Why would they do something that might well bring down nuclear retaliation on the heads of their own families? Isn’t that exactly the sort of situation in which a 1917-style military mutiny is called for? How stupid does the author think Russians are?

    Reality says that Russia with an economy roughly the size of Holland and Belgium would not be able to sustain an extended conventional war and the nuclear option is unthinkable

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  • @2stateshmustate
    I could be wrong, and yes it's a broad generalization, but. If you look at the average Russian man compared to a typical American man it seems the Russians look like fighters and the Americans either really fat or really skinny look like wimps, who've had all the fight bred out of them.
    I don't think the majority of Americans have it in them anymore to defend their country in a real war. And I think that was part of the plan all along.
    That said, Russia is not the enemy of the US. The real enemy are the filth that conspired to do 911 and are still running things here in the US.

    I don’t think the majority of Americans have it in them anymore to defend their country in a real war. And I think that was part of the plan all along.

    I know a number of American men who look just fine and some do look like warriors (some of them are my friends and colleagues and combat veterans and we just get along wonderfully), I knew and know, in fact some worked under me, a number of Vietnam vets–exemplary people. In the same time I know many Russian men who look like slobs and are wimps. But in general, trend-wise, metrosexualism and emasculation of an American man does exist–this is undeniable, while Russian culture always emphasized, and still does, self-sacrifice and warrior spirit. Per “defending their country”–here is a “slight” problem: no American serviceman ever fought directly in defense of the US, nor American population has any clue what real war is. I remember Sean Hannity screaming on Fox some years ago that his some remote relative was wounded at Iwo Jima or something like that. Really? That affected Sean for life? Talk about pain threshold difference.

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  • I could be wrong, and yes it’s a broad generalization, but. If you look at the average Russian man compared to a typical American man it seems the Russians look like fighters and the Americans either really fat or really skinny look like wimps, who’ve had all the fight bred out of them.
    I don’t think the majority of Americans have it in them anymore to defend their country in a real war. And I think that was part of the plan all along.
    That said, Russia is not the enemy of the US. The real enemy are the filth that conspired to do 911 and are still running things here in the US.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I don’t think the majority of Americans have it in them anymore to defend their country in a real war. And I think that was part of the plan all along.
     
    I know a number of American men who look just fine and some do look like warriors (some of them are my friends and colleagues and combat veterans and we just get along wonderfully), I knew and know, in fact some worked under me, a number of Vietnam vets--exemplary people. In the same time I know many Russian men who look like slobs and are wimps. But in general, trend-wise, metrosexualism and emasculation of an American man does exist--this is undeniable, while Russian culture always emphasized, and still does, self-sacrifice and warrior spirit. Per "defending their country"--here is a "slight" problem: no American serviceman ever fought directly in defense of the US, nor American population has any clue what real war is. I remember Sean Hannity screaming on Fox some years ago that his some remote relative was wounded at Iwo Jima or something like that. Really? That affected Sean for life? Talk about pain threshold difference.
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  • @Priss Factor
    Location Location Location.

    It depends on where.

    If Russia were to invade the US, it wouldn't have a chance.

    If Russia and US were to engage in a neutral nation, US would crush Russia.

    If the US were to invade Russia, Russia would have home field advantage. US could not win, but it can destroy several Russian cities with air superiority.

    Of course, this is all on the assumption that the war doesn't go nuclear.

    Alliances Alliances Alliances.

    Both US and Russia face problems with Alliances.

    If US were to attack Russia, it wouldn't do it alone. It would pressure its vassals, EU and Japan, to join. So, Russia would be against the material and manpower might of US and EU, the two richest parts of the world. From the east, it would have to face Japan. Now, it's unlikely Japan will militarily engage Russia, but it will serve as a giant aircraft carrier for the US.

    Those are huge alliance-deficit for Russia.

    But if US were to attack Russia, China will have Russia's back. China is warily watching US as the sole superpower that wants to encircle China forever.

    Now.. there is a possibility that if US calls for attack on Russia... the EU will finally rebel against the US, especially if the war happens under 'crazy Trump'. EU remembers Napoleon and Hitler. Russia is the Big Jinx of European politics. Also, if the US doesn't prevail against Russia, Russia might swallow up parts of Eastern Europe again. Poles and Ukrainians would be taking a huge gamble if they sided with US aggression against Russia. US better crush Russia... or else Russia is gonna get some revenge on US puppets around Russia.

    Poles and Ukrainians would be taking a huge gamble if they sided with US aggression against Russia.

    True enough, and they have too much historical baggage. They need to realize that we’re in 2018 and the Cold War is long gone. Russia isn’t the USSR, and the USA isn’t the “Shining city on a hill”.

    Ukraine is a hopeless mess, but Poland, for its own safety, would be advised to disconnect from the US/NATO ASAP and remove missile bases from its territory. The ideal has to be a place like Switzerland, that is internationally friendly but automatically neutral.

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  • @Rzhevskiy
    Show me a yank that would paint himself blue and rage into a battle to his own demise just for the cause and I might agree with you. But that’s not the reality. All those star-spangled ladyboys have got zero morale because they have got zero to fight for. Devoid that - yanks lack what’s most important in the survival battle - the cojones. Things would be nice and amicable in the world, at least much more so, if yanks stopped acting like they got the means, the goal and a pair to stand for it.

    Show me a yank that would paint himself blue and rage into a battle to his own demise just for the cause and I might agree with you.

    Um… I was referencing ancient Nordic warriors such as the Berserkers, whose pre-battle rituals involved going into a drug/alcohol induced rage and rendered them immune to pain or fear.
    About as far as you can get from today’s Rainbow Keyboard Warriors.

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  • @Priss Factor
    Location Location Location.

    It depends on where.

    If Russia were to invade the US, it wouldn't have a chance.

    If Russia and US were to engage in a neutral nation, US would crush Russia.

    If the US were to invade Russia, Russia would have home field advantage. US could not win, but it can destroy several Russian cities with air superiority.

    Of course, this is all on the assumption that the war doesn't go nuclear.

    Alliances Alliances Alliances.

    Both US and Russia face problems with Alliances.

    If US were to attack Russia, it wouldn't do it alone. It would pressure its vassals, EU and Japan, to join. So, Russia would be against the material and manpower might of US and EU, the two richest parts of the world. From the east, it would have to face Japan. Now, it's unlikely Japan will militarily engage Russia, but it will serve as a giant aircraft carrier for the US.

    Those are huge alliance-deficit for Russia.

    But if US were to attack Russia, China will have Russia's back. China is warily watching US as the sole superpower that wants to encircle China forever.

    Now.. there is a possibility that if US calls for attack on Russia... the EU will finally rebel against the US, especially if the war happens under 'crazy Trump'. EU remembers Napoleon and Hitler. Russia is the Big Jinx of European politics. Also, if the US doesn't prevail against Russia, Russia might swallow up parts of Eastern Europe again. Poles and Ukrainians would be taking a huge gamble if they sided with US aggression against Russia. US better crush Russia... or else Russia is gonna get some revenge on US puppets around Russia.

    I think China is ready for a lest 10 years already but keeps very quiet about what she has.
    I lived in China for 12 years. Everything there is way more advanced than in the US nowadays and all is geared for the people not the 1%.
    China is super ready.

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  • Regarding space flight – there is no future for man in it – robots can do it much, much, much better. Humans can productively go to orbit and that is all.

    SpaceX is putting this one to bed, at least for a while. Robots aren’t advancing fast enough to replace humans for the broad spectrum of mission tasks being contemplated now.

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  • The US astronauts did not only die in two shuttle disasters as you state, unless you mean only the in-flight disasters. For a long while the biggest US disaster was the three-men Apolo 1 crew which burned and suffocated when a fire broke out during pre-flight tests and their capsule could not be opened from the inside then only from the outside. One of the most stupid losses of lives in the history of space exploration.

    In service of the eventually successful mission to land men on the Moon, something the US has done repeatedly, but Russia has never done. Do polish that safety record statue, though.

    I get the sense that you are out of arguments.

    It took a while for you to fold, but never mind, you were certainly entertaining. Good effort!

    Apparently, FB can play the credentialist card forever. He probably keeps a whole deck atop his flat head.

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  • @Robert Magill

    You can think of the RS-28 Sarmat as a successor of the already formidable RS-36 Voevoda (SS-18 Satan in US classification) missile: it is a heavy, very powerful, intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (warheads):

    Weight: 100 tons
    Payload: 10 tons
    Warheads: 10 to 15
    Hypersonic glide vehicles: 3-24 (that’s the Yu-71 we will discuss below)
    Range: 10,000km
    Guidance: Inertial , satellite, astrocelestial
    Trajectory: FOBS-capable
     
    Now deployed on railroad cars throughout the forests of Siberia therefore almost invisable.

    On 9/11 the loss of 3000 innocent people placed the vast majority of US Americans into a total state of shock which resulted in a massive over-reaction at all levels (which was, of course, exactly the purpose of this false flag operation by the US and Israeli deep states).

     

    Not helpful in an otherwise fact-laden report.

    robertmagill.wordpress.com

    Perhaps unhelpful. True, nevertheless. For those of us who have spent hundreds of hours looking into 9/11, this is simply the truth.

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  • @jilles dykstra
    You really think wars are determined by rationality ?
    In 1914 Belgium did not accept a German occupation, you really think the Russians would accept a USA occupation ?
    Writing this, how could the USA accomplish an occupation ?
    The USSR imploded for two reasons, a centrally controlled economy cannot produce those consumer goods the consumer wants, but second the USSR could no longer afford the occupation costs of E Europe.
    How long can the USA afford its more than 800 overseas military bases ?
    USA voters want a single payer health system, not 800 military bases.

    Many of us don’t want EITHER.

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  • @AnonFromTN
    This piece, however reasonable, misses the key point: wars are fought and won by humans, not hardware. Simple example: Afghanistan. US troops with sophisticated infinitely superior hardware are scared to venture out of their highly fortified bases, whereas Taliban fighters with Kalashnikovs and medieval mentality roam free outside, doing whatever they want. Another example: Yemen. Saudis with their highly superior US- and European-made hardware are repeatedly losing to Houthi warriors with infinitely inferior gadgets but superior will to fight. Enough said.

    This piece, however reasonable, misses the key point: wars are fought and won by humans, not hardware.

    Another key point that often gets missed in all the drama regarding the shooting phases of wars is the fact that wars often begin and are waged long before any shooting starts.

    Despite it’s “cunning” and perversity, the US and its master, Israel, are constantly waging war on nearly all others and they are getting increasingly weak in those departments too because people are waking up to their perfidy and are fed up with it as well.

    Weakness in moral authority is no advantage, and we ‘Merkins need to clean up our own home first and only.

    Yankee come home.

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  • @Svigor
    "Two Great American Myths"

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America. Yes, we know (((Big Media))) is obsessed with Russia's designs on our precious bodily fluids. That's as far as it goes.

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America

    Sure, one can see it in every US stupid paper or Hollywood picture how little Americans are thinking about us.

    We elected you Trump, didn’t you forget that, buddy? Now we’re gonna teach you to die hard (not like Bruce Willis did) if of course you need these lessons.

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  • Jesus, Flathead Bolshevik is blathering about chamber pressure in this thread, too?

    Russian RD-180
    SpaceX Merlin
    SpaceX Raptor

    Chamber Pressure:
    RD-180: 3,870 psi
    Merlin: 1,410 psi
    Raptor: 3,600 psi

    First Flight:

    Russian RD-180: 2000
    SpaceX Merlin: 2006
    SpaceX Raptor: early 2020s (projected)

    There’s obviously a lot of room for speculation here. But one thing Russian nationalist flatheads like FB won’t acknowledge is that SpaceX is on a much better trajectory than ULA or EU or Russian launch providers. It’s easy to point to your perfect reliability record when you’ve been sucking off the taxpayer tit since the sixties and you don’t have to turn a profit or even project to turn a profit to stay in business. That’s a great situation for Boeing and Lockheed, and a big shit sandwich for space exploration. It’s much harder to do what SpaceX has done, which is come out of nowhere and become the space leader in under 20 years.

    That said, I’m not crowing about the Raptor being projected/planned to have basically the same chamber pressure as an RD-180 because 1, it hasn’t even been used in to launch a rocket yet, 2 there are several versions of the Raptor, and Musk has recently scaled back from the ITS to the BFR, and seems to be planning to go with a smaller version of the Raptor. I’m just pointing out that FB the flathead may want to go ahead and get all his crowing over the RD-180′s chamber pressure out of the way soon.

    But really if the RD-180′s chamber pressure is so important, where’s the ULA Mars base? The NASA Mars plan that comes in under $200 billion?

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  • That attitude will change as soon as 100,000,000 Americans die.

    Obviously. I doubt that’ll be anytime soon. Various parties have been yakking about megadeath in toe-to-toe nuk’l’r combat since the fifties. It keeps not happening.

    Any nation that attacks another nation as part of an effort to enslave that nation, I hope God preemptively destroys so that the attacking nation is uninhabitable for eternity.

    Sounds like you just like the idea of millions of people dying.

    I say leave the nations out of it; let God destroy the offending gov’ts instead. I don’t recall the Russian people rising up to condemn their gov’t for slaughtering the people of Afghanistan…

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  • Georgia, Caususus, 2008/8/8

    US-NATO tries to use Canada to start a war against Russia:

    {Emphasis is mine}

    “In August 2008, following a large-scale joint military exercise with U.S. troops, the Georgian military mounted a full offensive into South Ossetia, resulting in Russia’s retaliatory intervention. In the resultant clash, Russian forces quickly destroyed the Georgian forces and restored the previous territorial boundaries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.”

    “That same year, Canada led the campaign to admit both Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Had Canada been successful in that effort, the third world war would have either erupted in 2008 over South Ossetia, or in March 2014 over Russia’s annexation of the Crimea from Ukraine.”

    From:
    ON TARGET: WHO’S IN WHO’S FACE
    By Scott Taylor

    http://espritdecorps.ca/on-target-whos-in-whos-face/2016/5/24/on-target-whos-in-whos-face

    Russia was not the aggressor. US-NATO backed Georgia and attacked South Ossetia to provoke Russia. More than 2000 died:

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  • @Svigor
    "Two Great American Myths"

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America. Yes, we know (((Big Media))) is obsessed with Russia's designs on our precious bodily fluids. That's as far as it goes.

    That attitude will change as soon as 100,000,000 Americans die.

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  • @Flavius
    Whither goes the future of US - Russia relations, no one knows; but there is little reason for optimism and there is every reason to think about the unthinkable in the hope of avoiding it.
    In my wildest imaginings at the end of Cold War I, I could not have predicted that we would have arrived here from there, reading necessary essays like the Saker's above; and the fault, regrettably, is as close to entirely on the belligerence, hubris and sheer stupidity that has been woven into our national fabric that one can get.
    The utter derangement of the Washington elites and our political obsessives over Trump's election has placed into the equation the folly that ginning up another Cold War is preferable to accepting the results of valid election. How is one to dispel madness like this that runs so wide and deep? Trump has shown himself to be no prize, isolated as he has become from his campaign promise to restore cordial and correct relations with Russia; and he has not served himself well by staffing the White House with generals and family members as if he were the chief of state in Guatemala.
    But the question remains: if Trump is deposed over spurious nonsense like Russian 'meddling,' what comes next? Does it fall on the engineers of the coup d'etat to devise some suitable punishment for Russia having 'spoiled' an American Presidential election; do they lift the ridiculously inappropriate sanctions they have already visited on Russia in gratitude for having given them the pretext for removing this troublesome President? Who knows? Our political 'masters' abetted by their media shills are in the full throes of a nervous breakdown and anything is possible.

    Any nation that attacks another nation as part of an effort to enslave that nation, I hope God preemptively destroys so that the attacking nation is uninhabitable for eternity.

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  • (which was, of course, exactly the purpose of this false flag operation by the US and Israeli deep states).

    Yeah, the deep state’s brilliant, nefarious plan was to make it look like…drumroll… the Saudis did it. Cuz they wouldn’t want to blame it on America/Israel’s allies, like Iran, Syria, Iraq, etc.

    FFS. Saker = clown.

    That’s my argument…

    …that you are a total fake…

    …who presumes to contradict the written consensus of leading experts…

    WHILE POSSESSING ZERO QUALIFICATIONS OR KNOWLEDGE ON THE SUBJECT…

    And guess what…?

    I just proved my argument…

    Yes, you just proved, for the umpteenth time, that you think argumentum ad hominem fallacy is a good argument.

    Congratulations, you dim-witted, flathead fuck.

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  • “Two Great American Myths”

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America. Yes, we know (((Big Media))) is obsessed with Russia’s designs on our precious bodily fluids. That’s as far as it goes.

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    • Replies: @JamesinNM
    That attitude will change as soon as 100,000,000 Americans die.
    , @yurivku

    One Great Russian Myth: that Americans think about Russia even 1/10th as much as Russians (apparently) think about America
     
    Sure, one can see it in every US stupid paper or Hollywood picture how little Americans are thinking about us.

    We elected you Trump, didn't you forget that, buddy? Now we're gonna teach you to die hard (not like Bruce Willis did) if of course you need these lessons.
    , @Медведь
    Uh-huh, right. Perhaps you can explain then why NPR can’t shut up about Russia, Russian President, keeps broadcasting interviews with “random people from Moscow”, (most of which have heavy Polish, Baltic or English accent), and have been at it for nearly a year. You know, we appreciate all the attention, but that’s way overboard. Perhaps, it’s the time that Americans start focusing on their own problems. For example: laughable education, non-existent medical care, “just wait a week, it’s probably just a virus” being a default answer to a call to pediatrician, non-existent maternal leave, social programs only applicable to preferred minorities, shrinking middle class birth rate, mass shootings becoming a norm coast to coast, insane cost of living, debt that’s 108% of GDP, ~$56,000 per capita, with 40% of american citizens not even making that much a year, before tax. I could fill up a small soft-cover with just enumeration of your internal problems before even getting to the global subjects, where you fail miserably anywhere from being actually a cohesive country to your behaviour on international arena, the only area in which you succeed being bullying defenseless countries of the size of Texas at most, but even then managing to screw it up...
    So, yank, your attempted sarcasm is just as nil as your bluff as a state.
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  • @Erebus

    Platforms are still important, of course, but it is how they are integrated and interact within battle-space.
     
    I'm just recently coming to be aware of more than the headline slogans. Without doubt, network centric warfare is a paradigm shift in many ways, but it seems rather vulnerable to me.
    Reading about how Hezbollah's hard-wired communications system (literally wires laid all over S. Lebanon) played a key role in saving their arse in 2006 because it couldn't be jammed or intercepted. They also used motorcycle runners to carry encrypted paper orders manually.
    Meanwhile, HZB were jamming/intercepting IDF transmissions and turning that into kills when Israeli units got isolated by communication breakdowns and literally didn't know what to do next, or drove straight into waiting ambushes, and again didn't know what to do.

    Of course, "the networked battle-space" is just the modern equivalent of the good old days of Generals standing on hilltops watching the battle unfold, sending up flags and runners out with orders. Now it's turning into the battle of the Algorithms.

    Gonna take me some time to sort this new stuff out in my head. Painting yourself blue and running naked, screaming into battle in an alcoholic rage has a cache no algorithm can match.

    Show me a yank that would paint himself blue and rage into a battle to his own demise just for the cause and I might agree with you. But that’s not the reality. All those star-spangled ladyboys have got zero morale because they have got zero to fight for. Devoid that – yanks lack what’s most important in the survival battle – the cojones. Things would be nice and amicable in the world, at least much more so, if yanks stopped acting like they got the means, the goal and a pair to stand for it.

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    • Troll: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @Erebus

    Show me a yank that would paint himself blue and rage into a battle to his own demise just for the cause and I might agree with you.
     
    Um... I was referencing ancient Nordic warriors such as the Berserkers, whose pre-battle rituals involved going into a drug/alcohol induced rage and rendered them immune to pain or fear.
    About as far as you can get from today's Rainbow Keyboard Warriors.
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  • @anon
    Actually the British admiralty didn't want to send the two ships there without air support. It was Churchill's idea. He made the decision for political reasons, not militarily sound ones. He felt it would reassure Australia and intimidate Japan. Neither assumption proved correct.

    Heh, that was a typical western response “it’s not us, it’s just Churchill”. Well, the reality factor for you – Churchill at the time was what represented Great Britain as a political entity. Just as any yank’s yelp “oh, it’s just (insert a name of an inept politician) – the excise doesn’t fly. Your inept politicians are elected by YOU from YOUR kin. Therefore, you bear full responsibility for their actions. How would you like this – we nuke your shit to smitherines and then excuse ourselves – “oh, it’s not us, it’s just (insert a name of a scape goat who pressed the button) ”. Will you feel any better about getting nuked to smitherines? Well, we don’t like the fact that your military shit is at our borders. No excuses left for you. Come to your senses and withdraw. Or you won’t know who “won”, because even if you personally do survive, you’ll live the rest of your days in Stone Age.

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  • The Saker writes about the hypersonic antiship cruise missile Zircon and its destructive power. However, he does not mention the supersonic antiship cruise missiles such as the Moskit and the Yakhont. Naval surface ships are just as vulnerable to these missiles as they are to the Zircon. They travel at Mach 2.5 or faster, which is faster than the average rifle bullet. There is no stopping them, especially if fired in sufficient numbers. The Aegis defensive system onboard American ships is designed to stop subsonic cruise missiles and even then that system can be overwhelmed by numbers of such subsonic missiles. In reality, the antiship cruise missile has rendered naval surface ships obsolete.

    Smaller countries such as Iran, North Korea India or Serbia could easily destroy an American carrier battle group with these supersonic missiles or even with the subsonic variety.

    I am convinced that one of the major reasons that Iran is not attacked by American air and naval forces is that the American navy would suffer a catastrophic defeat. Not only would the aircraft carriers be destroyed but they would lose many aircraft. Iran has both subsonic and supersonic antiship cruise missiles.

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  • @Flavius
    Whither goes the future of US - Russia relations, no one knows; but there is little reason for optimism and there is every reason to think about the unthinkable in the hope of avoiding it.
    In my wildest imaginings at the end of Cold War I, I could not have predicted that we would have arrived here from there, reading necessary essays like the Saker's above; and the fault, regrettably, is as close to entirely on the belligerence, hubris and sheer stupidity that has been woven into our national fabric that one can get.
    The utter derangement of the Washington elites and our political obsessives over Trump's election has placed into the equation the folly that ginning up another Cold War is preferable to accepting the results of valid election. How is one to dispel madness like this that runs so wide and deep? Trump has shown himself to be no prize, isolated as he has become from his campaign promise to restore cordial and correct relations with Russia; and he has not served himself well by staffing the White House with generals and family members as if he were the chief of state in Guatemala.
    But the question remains: if Trump is deposed over spurious nonsense like Russian 'meddling,' what comes next? Does it fall on the engineers of the coup d'etat to devise some suitable punishment for Russia having 'spoiled' an American Presidential election; do they lift the ridiculously inappropriate sanctions they have already visited on Russia in gratitude for having given them the pretext for removing this troublesome President? Who knows? Our political 'masters' abetted by their media shills are in the full throes of a nervous breakdown and anything is possible.

    Heh, yeah, Russia and US amicably and equally cooperating would be the best what can possibly happen to this world. But. Russia has extended the hand on more than one occasion. Yanks were too stupid and stuck up to accept. This is your last chance, star-spangled fucks. Things can still improve, although you’d have to jump out of your skins to prove yourselves as trustworthy partners in an equal multipolar world, still, there’s a chance. But the window is rapidly shrinking. You either do the right thing and accept that you are nobody and your name is nothing and proceed with repairing the relations from that stance, or…. Well, there’s be no yanks – you are on the path of failure and as stuck up as you are, nobody will lend you a helping hand when you do yourselves in.

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  • Scott Ritter decries the de facto death of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, also known as the INF Treaty, in his excellent piece in The American Conservative. But by now, anyone with even a rudimentary background in international politics and military affairs knows very well that most arms limitations treaties with the United States are...
  • @Aedib
    What about the RS-26, the "ICBM" with spirit of IRBM? Some news about it?

    What about the RS-26, the “ICBM” with spirit of IRBM? Some news about it?

    I don’t follow it that closely but Russia’s present nuclear deterrent is more than enough to ensure security.

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  • I still can’t forget Gorbachev advertising Louis Vuitton bags in some glamour mag, right when NATO was in a full expansion mode. What a POS.

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  • What about the RS-26, the “ICBM” with spirit of IRBM? Some news about it?

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    What about the RS-26, the “ICBM” with spirit of IRBM? Some news about it?
     
    I don't follow it that closely but Russia's present nuclear deterrent is more than enough to ensure security.
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  • @peterAUS

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.
     
    Can't disagree.
    But,the last time it didn't work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.
     
    Actually....agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in '80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now...arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US........not quite, IMHO.

    Re: “But not so sure it needs to compete with US.”

    It seems Putin agrees about avoiding an unnecessary arms race:

    Putin Tells a Joke About a Boy who Swaps his Father’s Navy Dagger for a Watch

    1:14 min

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=74&v=WXZXuRmHKSQ

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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.
     
    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS "substitution" signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat . If that is true (and all circumstantial evidence suggests so) --we are already in a new paradigm. As an example.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2143499-ships-fooled-in-gps-spoofing-attack-suggest-russian-cyberweapon/

    In other words, implications are immense, there is certainly a very pronounced flavor of utter desperation on the part of US top military and national security brass, not to speak of some rah-rah resources going to "ludicrous speed"(c) in praising US military capabilities, which are simply not there.

    Per this:

    long before MAD kicks in.
     
    We all still live under the umbrella of MAD but the main change was taking place namely in conventional weaponry which redefined the impact. Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equaling that of a nuclear weapon.

    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS “substitution” signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat .

    That may be, but one would expect a “false grid” to affect all missiles. From what we can tell, at least 14 Tomahawks made direct hits on plausible targets, with a total of ~23 hitting within the Tomahawk’s claimed 10m CEP (namely, within the expected 30m distribution pattern). See graphic below:Not knowing the salvo timing or the flight plans, we can only speculate about what re-directed 36 Tomahawks to destinations well outside the Tomahawk’s CEP distribution pattern. >60% of a salvo isn’t a statistical outlier, ergo: there must be a macro-scale cause. If a “false grid” was applied, it may be that there were delays/errors committed in its deployment, or that the technology cannot be applied uniformly, or that the successful TLAMs were guided to their targets by other means. I’m sure both US & Russian specialists are studying the matter closely.

    Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equalling that of a nuclear weapon.

    My main point was that if it wasn’t obvious then (with Soviet buffer states still intact), it is surely obvious now that the INF Treaty adversely affects Russia’s security and enhances the West’s, as well as all of the other countries along Russia’s borders.

    Only the US and Russia are signatories, so everybody else has free rein to deploy long range land-based cruise missiles, including China, S. Korea and Japan, but also any of the Central Asian countries the West is trying to elbow their way into. Think of what Afghanistan may have become had US patronage of Karzai’s government succeeded. Russia can counter only with sea and air launches. Both Russian and Western analysts have pointed this out.

    On the European front, Russia’s security looks better. The Baltic fleet and its ability to hit distant targets from Russian airspace are powerful deterents. Its defence lacks only the ability to deploy on land to guarantee security. As it is Russia can’t hit much with <500km range missiles. Meanwhile NATO can hit targets up to 500km inside Russian territory. Targeting Warsaw from Kaliningrad is not a deterrence, NATO would defend Europe to the last Pole. Hitting Brussels, Paris or London is a more serious matter.

    That Western negotiators saw the treaty's strategic implications more clearly than Gorbachev et al 3 decades ago is a historically anomalous error that Russia needs to correct. Standing on legal principle in the face of that threat seems foolish, frankly.

    To sum up, I don't get the idea that the US wants to break the INF. From my admittedly amateur standpoint, I rather think they're terrified of Russia breaking it as it suddenly gains immense advantage to which NATO has no counter. Fixed installation Aegis Ashore platforms loaded with Tomahawks don't pose a fraction of the threat that the Kalibr family poses using cheap containerized platforms that could be literally anywhere, and somewhere else tomorrow.

    I also note the silence from Europe on this matter. They're in the crosshairs of any Russian INF-violating missiles, yet no leader has made an official comment (afaik). All the noise comes from the US. Is there a tacit acceptance in Europe that Russia can't allow Gorbachev's strategic blunder to continue to affect its security? It seems so, and it may be a contributing factor to the stresses we see in the NATO alliance, and even in the EU itself. The obvious implication of Russia abrogating the INF is that diplomacy and good relations with Russia become Europe's best defence, while NATO can contribute only to its destruction. I think that's what the US is worried about, and why it's making the noises it's making.

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  • @Aedib
    Then, they will have a great flexibility; even more if is possible to change “the mix” to tune it for specific missions. Granit-class will be, therefore, a fantastic offensive platform.

    they will have a great flexibility

    That’s the idea. Kalibr is a family of missiles and allows great flexibility in honing each mission for a specific objective.

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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?
     
    Both. But supersonic ASCM is 3M54. Those are unified weapons systems. Each Oscar will be able to carry 72 of those missiles in modified containers for 24 Granit missiles. Generally--anything of a Kalibr family.

    Then, they will have a great flexibility; even more if is possible to change “the mix” to tune it for specific missions. Granit-class will be, therefore, a fantastic offensive platform.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    they will have a great flexibility
     
    That's the idea. Kalibr is a family of missiles and allows great flexibility in honing each mission for a specific objective.
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  • @JerseyJeffersonian
    Mr. Martyanov,

    This is O.T., but you will see its purpose in a moment. Didn't have a ready way to drop this on you, but this fresh thread should serve the purpose.

    JJ

    Ah, glad that I encountered a comment from you here at UR, as I have run across something potentially of interest to you as a student of naval affairs. I am the clerk of government documents at a law school library, and today I found a new issuance in a freshly arrived box of govdocs from the U.S. Naval War College Press dealing with war gaming activities at the juncture when naval forces were shifting their focus from Japan to the USSR. Details on the book in question: Author, Hal M. Friedman; Title, Blue versus Purple - The U.S. Naval War College, the Soviet Union, and the New Enemy in the Pacific, 1946; Identifiers and Call Numbers LCCN 2017007795, ISBN 9781935352310, LCC V420 .F748 2016, SUDOC D 208.210:24, LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017007795.

    Specialist stuff, but if anybody might be interested, it would likely be you. Friedman has also authored two previous books (part of the three volume set): Digesting History: The U.S. Naval War College, the Lessons of World War Two, and Future Naval Warfare, 1945-1947; Blue versus Orange: The U.S. Naval War College, Japan, and the Old Enemy in the Pacific, 1945-1946. Don't have the level of detail on these that I scooped from the volume just arrived, but you could find them. If you wish, you might try using WorldCat [ https://www.worldcat.org/ ] to locate libraries which have them in their holdings; if close enough for a visit, fine, otherwise the information obtained may enable you to place an interlibrary loan request.

    First saw you posting as SmoothieX12 over at Sic Semper Tyrannis, one of my daily go-to sites, only later finding your blog, which I also periodically visit. You do good work.

    Thank you very much for pointing out this interesting material. I, certainly, will be interested to see how this whole emerging Cold War ordeal was viewed in late 1940s.

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  • @SumDood
    Scott Ritter?

    Scott "Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls" Ritter?

    Scott "Convicted and jailed for soliciting minors" Ritter?

    From Wikipedia:

    "Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[49] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself via a web camera after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl; Ritter said he was not made aware of the ostensible age of his correspondent until after the act. The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included "unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation".[50] Ritter rejected a plea bargain, testified in his trial and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[3][51] In October 2011 he received a sentence of one and a half to five and a half years in prison.[51] He was paroled in September 2014.[52]"

    Ritter is compromised, and parroting whatever he is told to say by his controller.

    As regrettable (and inexcusable) Ritter’s behavior was (albeit I have some doubts in veracity of charges, considering Ritter’s stance on Iraq War), I merely mentioned his piece on a merit of an argument. This is not to mention the argument (a good one) being published in The American Conservative–hardly a source known for promoting sex with underage girls. Evidently TAC shares my POV, by consistently publishing him.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @SumDood
    Scott Ritter?

    Scott "Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls" Ritter?

    Scott "Convicted and jailed for soliciting minors" Ritter?

    From Wikipedia:

    "Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[49] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself via a web camera after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl; Ritter said he was not made aware of the ostensible age of his correspondent until after the act. The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included "unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation".[50] Ritter rejected a plea bargain, testified in his trial and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[3][51] In October 2011 he received a sentence of one and a half to five and a half years in prison.[51] He was paroled in September 2014.[52]"

    Ritter is compromised, and parroting whatever he is told to say by his controller.

    “Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls…”
    The usual borgists’ method to smear the undesirables, whether the undesirable is Assange or Ritter. How is your Lolita Express doing, SumDood? There were some big names involved in relation to the underage girls who were actually raped under the supervision of an American financier Epstein. Tons of evidence… the Orgy Island was wired through and through. http://gawker.com/flight-logs-put-clinton-dershowitz-on-pedophile-billio-1681039971
    Neither Dershowiz nor Bill Clinton has been arrested. Why? –For being the good friends of Israel and loyalists to Borg? The underage girls on Lolita Express and Orgy Island were not a police decoy — there were children as young as 12 who were used as sex slaves by the wealthy and powerful men none of whom has been arrested (apart from the main procurer Epstein). Don’t you protest too much with your oh-so-prudish quotation from Wikipedia?
    And who is this mysterious “controller?” — perhaps you tried to insinuate Putin? Of course, who else could be so abusive towards our impoverished Pentagon and our innocent democracy…

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  • @Aedib

    But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don’t think it is good for anybody. But we are there.
     
    I think a new arms race like the Cold War 1.0 is unlikely. Putin clearly claimed Russia will not be trapped in such a race again. We should expect more “asymmetrical reactions” or an “asymmetrical weapons race”. For example INF was circumvented by these lovely small Buyan class corvettes. Think in something like this or something “symmetrical” like a dozen ground based X-101 in Chukotka targeting the whole Alaska and the west US coast as a consequence of ground based Tomahawks in Poland.

    Aedib,

    Geez, I dunno; some may think that having San Francisco getting nuked really wouldn’t chap our asses too badly.

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  • @Anon
    An answer for the clueless peterAUS:
    From Colonel Lang, a highly competent military man and true patriot of the US --
    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/12/russian-federation-sitrep-14-december-2017.html#tpe-action-posted-6a00d8341c72e153ef01b7c93d0638970b
    "Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets)." He has been merciless in his criticism of the ziocon idiots who have been destroying his beloved US: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/about.html

    Anon,

    Although your first link appeared at Sic Semper Tyrannis, it was actually authored by the Canadian, Patrick Armstrong, and is the latest installment of his ongoing series of Russian Federation Sitreps. Not to say that Col. Lang may not be in substantial agreement with Mr. Armstrong’s points, but there is a difference. It is well worth reading this edition from the RF Sitrep series.

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  • Mr. Martyanov,

    This is O.T., but you will see its purpose in a moment. Didn’t have a ready way to drop this on you, but this fresh thread should serve the purpose.

    JJ

    Ah, glad that I encountered a comment from you here at UR, as I have run across something potentially of interest to you as a student of naval affairs. I am the clerk of government documents at a law school library, and today I found a new issuance in a freshly arrived box of govdocs from the U.S. Naval War College Press dealing with war gaming activities at the juncture when naval forces were shifting their focus from Japan to the USSR. Details on the book in question: Author, Hal M. Friedman; Title, Blue versus Purple – The U.S. Naval War College, the Soviet Union, and the New Enemy in the Pacific, 1946; Identifiers and Call Numbers LCCN 2017007795, ISBN 9781935352310, LCC V420 .F748 2016, SUDOC D 208.210:24, LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017007795.

    Specialist stuff, but if anybody might be interested, it would likely be you. Friedman has also authored two previous books (part of the three volume set): Digesting History: The U.S. Naval War College, the Lessons of World War Two, and Future Naval Warfare, 1945-1947; Blue versus Orange: The U.S. Naval War College, Japan, and the Old Enemy in the Pacific, 1945-1946. Don’t have the level of detail on these that I scooped from the volume just arrived, but you could find them. If you wish, you might try using WorldCat (https://www.worldcat.org/ ] to locate libraries which have them in their holdings; if close enough for a visit, fine, otherwise the information obtained may enable you to place an interlibrary loan request.

    First saw you posting as SmoothieX12 over at Sic Semper Tyrannis, one of my daily go-to sites, only later finding your blog, which I also periodically visit. You do good work.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Thank you very much for pointing out this interesting material. I, certainly, will be interested to see how this whole emerging Cold War ordeal was viewed in late 1940s.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Johnny Rico

    "allows EU to defend it self from any external threats"
     
    And what would those be? Global Warming? Egypt? Martians?

    The United States doesn't have any control over these countries so it can't lose it. The United States barely has control over itself.

    holy shit, there is someone here who believes there is no geopolitics.

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  • @SumDood
    Scott Ritter?

    Scott "Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls" Ritter?

    Scott "Convicted and jailed for soliciting minors" Ritter?

    From Wikipedia:

    "Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[49] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself via a web camera after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl; Ritter said he was not made aware of the ostensible age of his correspondent until after the act. The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included "unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation".[50] Ritter rejected a plea bargain, testified in his trial and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[3][51] In October 2011 he received a sentence of one and a half to five and a half years in prison.[51] He was paroled in September 2014.[52]"

    Ritter is compromised, and parroting whatever he is told to say by his controller.

    No, no, no comrade. He is Anglosaxonist American. All these think same way. Read story about big bombs, have many of these. Russia Strong! America Stupid!

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  • Scott Ritter?

    Scott “Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls” Ritter?

    Scott “Convicted and jailed for soliciting minors” Ritter?

    From Wikipedia:

    “Ritter was arrested again in November 2009[49] over communications with a police decoy he met on an Internet chat site. Police said that he exposed himself via a web camera after the officer said she was a 15-year-old girl; Ritter said he was not made aware of the ostensible age of his correspondent until after the act. The next month, Ritter waived his right to a preliminary hearing and was released on a $25,000 unsecured bail. Charges included “unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation”.[50] Ritter rejected a plea bargain, testified in his trial and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a Monroe County, Pennsylvania courtroom on April 14, 2011.[3][51] In October 2011 he received a sentence of one and a half to five and a half years in prison.[51] He was paroled in September 2014.[52]“

    Ritter is compromised, and parroting whatever he is told to say by his controller.

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    • Replies: @Issac
    No, no, no comrade. He is Anglosaxonist American. All these think same way. Read story about big bombs, have many of these. Russia Strong! America Stupid!
    , @Anon
    "Arrested 3 times for soliciting underage girls..."
    The usual borgists' method to smear the undesirables, whether the undesirable is Assange or Ritter. How is your Lolita Express doing, SumDood? There were some big names involved in relation to the underage girls who were actually raped under the supervision of an American financier Epstein. Tons of evidence... the Orgy Island was wired through and through. http://gawker.com/flight-logs-put-clinton-dershowitz-on-pedophile-billio-1681039971
    Neither Dershowiz nor Bill Clinton has been arrested. Why? --For being the good friends of Israel and loyalists to Borg? The underage girls on Lolita Express and Orgy Island were not a police decoy -- there were children as young as 12 who were used as sex slaves by the wealthy and powerful men none of whom has been arrested (apart from the main procurer Epstein). Don't you protest too much with your oh-so-prudish quotation from Wikipedia?
    And who is this mysterious "controller?" -- perhaps you tried to insinuate Putin? Of course, who else could be so abusive towards our impoverished Pentagon and our innocent democracy…
    , @Andrei Martyanov
    As regrettable (and inexcusable) Ritter's behavior was (albeit I have some doubts in veracity of charges, considering Ritter's stance on Iraq War), I merely mentioned his piece on a merit of an argument. This is not to mention the argument (a good one) being published in The American Conservative--hardly a source known for promoting sex with underage girls. Evidently TAC shares my POV, by consistently publishing him.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Michael Kenny
    The usual pro-Putin propaganda. Putin's irresistible hoards with their super modern technology! Capitulate, America, while you've still got a chance! Crimea: a surprise attack by what appears to have been private contractors which met no military resistance. What a stupendous feat of arms! Donbas: Putin denies the troops there are even his. Whoever they are, they've been stopped dead in their tracks by the rickety, cold war-era Ukrainian military. What a stupendous feat of arms! Syria: air power used against insurgents who themselves had no air support. What a stupendous feat of arms! Moral of the story: Putin doesn't dare use his rickety conscript army. The Caspian thing is an obvious scam which nobody beleives. "NATO has violated several treaties and tacit understandings". With whom? Russia has existed as a sovereign state only since 1991 and is the largest piece of wreckage from the collapse of the Soviet Union, a communist dictatorship. If Putin claims that Russia, as a successor state to the Soviet Union, is entitled to the benefit of treaties concluded with the Soviet Union, he must also accept the treaty obligations entered into by the Soviet Union. By invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, Putin violated the Helsinki Final Act. Thus, by his own act, he has renounced the benefit of successor state status. He can't have it both ways! Thus, the impression this article makes is that the Rusian government considers its military forces inferior to those of the US and the European members of NATO. I think most of the planet would agree.

    Putin in Crimea followed the script written by Bill Clinton for Kosovo in Serbia. Bill decided that it met “international law” standards for a place to declare it’s independence if the local government voted for it and there was a popular referendum. The Crimeans also added the desire to be annexed by Russia in their referendum.

    What’s good for the Kosovo is good for the Crimea.

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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @peterAUS

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.
     
    Can't disagree.
    But,the last time it didn't work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.
     
    Actually....agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in '80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now...arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US........not quite, IMHO.

    An answer for the clueless peterAUS:
    From Colonel Lang, a highly competent military man and true patriot of the US –

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/12/russian-federation-sitrep-14-december-2017.html#tpe-action-posted-6a00d8341c72e153ef01b7c93d0638970b

    “Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets).” He has been merciless in his criticism of the ziocon idiots who have been destroying his beloved US: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/about.html

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    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    Anon,

    Although your first link appeared at Sic Semper Tyrannis, it was actually authored by the Canadian, Patrick Armstrong, and is the latest installment of his ongoing series of Russian Federation Sitreps. Not to say that Col. Lang may not be in substantial agreement with Mr. Armstrong's points, but there is a difference. It is well worth reading this edition from the RF Sitrep series.
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  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @peterAUS

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.
     
    Can't disagree.
    But,the last time it didn't work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.
     
    Actually....agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in '80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now...arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US........not quite, IMHO.

    “I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.”
    — Keep believing.
    Meanwhile, ‘BOOK PRESENTATION: DOES THE UNITED STATES HAVE A FUTURE? by Gilbert Doctorow. Ph.D. http://usforeignpolicy.blogs.lalibre.be/archive/2017/12/09/speech-to-the-national-press-club-washington-d-c-7-december-1161794.html
    “Let me be specific about how the US attempts to contain and control Russia over the past 25 years have backfired:
    Objective One: Cripple the Russian economy by reducing its single biggest source of export revenues: gas and oil sales to Europe. … The second dimension of this economic warfare has been sanctions, which the US first imposed in 2012, under the guise of punishing Russian violations of human rights –the Magnitsky Act – and which were vastly expanded in 2014 up to present to punish Russia for alleged violations of international law and of the post-Cold War world order by its annexation of Crimea and intervention in the Ukrainian civil war, in Donbass.
    Objective Two: Isolate Russia and cast it as a pariah state, without friends or allies. Expel Russia from major international gatherings, like the G8. … A subset of the “isolate Russia” campaign is to cut off Russian access to military technology.
    What have we gotten for these efforts?
    First, the political effect of the economic warfare, especially of the sanctions, has been to rally the Russian population around the President and in defense of the nation… All of this has driven the approval ratings of Putin from about 65% three years ago to over 80% for months on end this year.
    Secondly, these attacks have only strengthened the resilience and self-sufficiency of the Russian economy. …
    Thirdly, the Russians came up with other pipelines and other partners to ensure their dominant position as provider of imported gas to the EU …”

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  • @Aedib

    Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.
     
    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?

    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?

    Both. But supersonic ASCM is 3M54. Those are unified weapons systems. Each Oscar will be able to carry 72 of those missiles in modified containers for 24 Granit missiles. Generally–anything of a Kalibr family.

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    • Replies: @Aedib
    Then, they will have a great flexibility; even more if is possible to change “the mix” to tune it for specific missions. Granit-class will be, therefore, a fantastic offensive platform.
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  • @Aedib
    AFAIK Ivanov is a near-Putin cadre, but ideologically and in career. What about Bortnikov? He seems a little more hardliner.

    What about Bortnikov?

    I don’t know. Only Putin knows and even that is in question.

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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer
     
    No, because X-101 is an air-launched missile and requires initial launch speed which is provided by the carrier aircraft (bombers--TU-160 and TU-95). Having said all that, nothing prevents bombers from launching X-101 (or, God forbids, X-102) precisely from near polar areas. But then, there is another issue--it is Russian Navy. Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.

    https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/russias-pacific-fleet-to-upgrade-4-subs-with-supersonic-cruise-missiles/

    So, there will always be a salvo. This is not mention other submarines capable of launching 3M14 or whatever comes after it (upgrades). The important thing here, however, is the fact that the United States simply has no viable Air-defense system. Yes, you may expect an increase of missile-carrying submarines' patrols near US shores on both oceans, the same as continued evolution of a long-range aviation and weapons it carries.

    Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.

    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?
     
    Both. But supersonic ASCM is 3M54. Those are unified weapons systems. Each Oscar will be able to carry 72 of those missiles in modified containers for 24 Granit missiles. Generally--anything of a Kalibr family.
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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Sergei Ivanov
     
    Ivanov is a closet liberal and is also known to be too friendly with Mr. Daniels and other foreign agents of influence, some of them single malt, others of a sour mash nature. Not a chance for him. Shoigu? Possible but how probable--I don't know. Most likely some guy from the "wings" of Kremlin.

    AFAIK Ivanov is a near-Putin cadre, but ideologically and in career. What about Bortnikov? He seems a little more hardliner.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    What about Bortnikov?
     
    I don't know. Only Putin knows and even that is in question.
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  • @Astuteobservor II
    well, europe just signed PESCO. they are already trying to deal with it. the moment it works, is the moment usa looses control over them. also allows EU to defend it self from any external threats.

    “allows EU to defend it self from any external threats”

    And what would those be? Global Warming? Egypt? Martians?

    The United States doesn’t have any control over these countries so it can’t lose it. The United States barely has control over itself.

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    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    holy shit, there is someone here who believes there is no geopolitics.
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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA.
     
    It is very true--like a reputation, geopolitical weight is very different to build and is very easy to squander. The way the United States did it since 2003 is nothing short of jaw dropping. This also tells quite a bit about American power "elites", not very bright to put it mildly, even when one considers a very serious factor of neoconservatism, which is woefully detrimental to the real American interests. But then again, if not Christian Zionism being so wide spread in the US, the path could have been different.

    Correction:

    weight is very different to build and is very easy to squander.

    Must read difficult.

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  • @Aedib
    I mostly agree with tour assessment. When a talk about a hardliner I don’t mean a Zhirinovsky-like hardliner. I mean a cool blood FSB hardliner continuing Putin’s master lines. He performed extremely well in face of the Anglo-Zionist axis but sooner or later he will be gone. Finding a right replacement after newt year presidential contest is a “must”.
    I am thinking in someone like Sergei Ivanov or Bortnikov.

    Sergei Ivanov

    Ivanov is a closet liberal and is also known to be too friendly with Mr. Daniels and other foreign agents of influence, some of them single malt, others of a sour mash nature. Not a chance for him. Shoigu? Possible but how probable–I don’t know. Most likely some guy from the “wings” of Kremlin.

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    • Replies: @Aedib
    AFAIK Ivanov is a near-Putin cadre, but ideologically and in career. What about Bortnikov? He seems a little more hardliner.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Sergey Krieger
    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA. The key is to have USA safely pinned down and preocuppied with as many things as possible while entropy takes care of the rest making usa not a threat anymore. Military capabilities tend to vanish very quickly when the system that feeds than disintegrates.

    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA.

    It is very true–like a reputation, geopolitical weight is very different to build and is very easy to squander. The way the United States did it since 2003 is nothing short of jaw dropping. This also tells quite a bit about American power “elites”, not very bright to put it mildly, even when one considers a very serious factor of neoconservatism, which is woefully detrimental to the real American interests. But then again, if not Christian Zionism being so wide spread in the US, the path could have been different.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Correction:

    weight is very different to build and is very easy to squander.
     
    Must read difficult.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Andrei Martyanov

    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.
     
    It may have, also, as a possible effect, a much faster and harder transition to a multi-polar world and, most likely, will create a huge turmoil in Europe. It also will marginalize the United States with a new realignment. Ramifications are colossal.

    well, europe just signed PESCO. they are already trying to deal with it. the moment it works, is the moment usa looses control over them. also allows EU to defend it self from any external threats.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico

    "allows EU to defend it self from any external threats"
     
    And what would those be? Global Warming? Egypt? Martians?

    The United States doesn't have any control over these countries so it can't lose it. The United States barely has control over itself.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Aedib
    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer to the hypothetical deployment of ground based Tomahawks in Poland? From there you can target even San Francisco.

    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer

    No, because X-101 is an air-launched missile and requires initial launch speed which is provided by the carrier aircraft (bombers–TU-160 and TU-95). Having said all that, nothing prevents bombers from launching X-101 (or, God forbids, X-102) precisely from near polar areas. But then, there is another issue–it is Russian Navy. Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.

    https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/russias-pacific-fleet-to-upgrade-4-subs-with-supersonic-cruise-missiles/

    So, there will always be a salvo. This is not mention other submarines capable of launching 3M14 or whatever comes after it (upgrades). The important thing here, however, is the fact that the United States simply has no viable Air-defense system. Yes, you may expect an increase of missile-carrying submarines’ patrols near US shores on both oceans, the same as continued evolution of a long-range aviation and weapons it carries.

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    • Replies: @Aedib

    Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.
     
    Supersonic anti-ship 3M14 or subsonic SLCM 3M14?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.
     
    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS "substitution" signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat . If that is true (and all circumstantial evidence suggests so) --we are already in a new paradigm. As an example.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2143499-ships-fooled-in-gps-spoofing-attack-suggest-russian-cyberweapon/

    In other words, implications are immense, there is certainly a very pronounced flavor of utter desperation on the part of US top military and national security brass, not to speak of some rah-rah resources going to "ludicrous speed"(c) in praising US military capabilities, which are simply not there.

    Per this:

    long before MAD kicks in.
     
    We all still live under the umbrella of MAD but the main change was taking place namely in conventional weaponry which redefined the impact. Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equaling that of a nuclear weapon.

    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA. The key is to have USA safely pinned down and preocuppied with as many things as possible while entropy takes care of the rest making usa not a threat anymore. Military capabilities tend to vanish very quickly when the system that feeds than disintegrates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA.
     
    It is very true--like a reputation, geopolitical weight is very different to build and is very easy to squander. The way the United States did it since 2003 is nothing short of jaw dropping. This also tells quite a bit about American power "elites", not very bright to put it mildly, even when one considers a very serious factor of neoconservatism, which is woefully detrimental to the real American interests. But then again, if not Christian Zionism being so wide spread in the US, the path could have been different.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Avery
    { Which brings a question of how a man of such caliber could get elected and managed to stay as long as he did.}

    Well, Gorbachev was not really elected: he was selected by his fellow Communist Party sycophants. But the more important question is, were Gorbachev's predecessors any better?

    [Leonid Brezhnev New Year's Address (1979)]
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E66oM2iAMwM

    How could a superpower allow a man bordering on senility to be its leader?
    This is the fundamental weakness that Russian people have not solved since the time of the Tsars.
    Hat tip to Chinese Communists who have solved it: I am not privy to the details, but apparently some kind of super- committee runs things, and a standard-issue colorless bureaucrat is selected to be titular President for a period, and then another nameless figure takes over.

    I can't imagine either the Chinese or any Western major power allowing one man to do what Gorbachev did.

    Putin is a great Russian patriot and a very smart leader.
    But what comes after?
    What if another Yeltsin or Gorbachev is elected by the Russian electorate?
    Where is the Russia's system of checks and balances?

    You have the point however almost every nation at one point of history has someone similar to gorbachov. Chinese had Wan Mang for example. Before health issues Leonie Iliich was very competent leader and even in coma he was still head and shoulders above Gorbachov. I agree that Russia needs system of checks and balances to avoid one man doing much harm. Selection process should be geared towards picking one capable and deserving. I stress, selecting not election. Mob is gullible which was amply demonstrated in 80′s by Soviet people. They did elect Yeltsin twice, didn’t they? Russia plainly has no place for another mistake of similar proportions.

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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.
     
    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS "substitution" signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat . If that is true (and all circumstantial evidence suggests so) --we are already in a new paradigm. As an example.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2143499-ships-fooled-in-gps-spoofing-attack-suggest-russian-cyberweapon/

    In other words, implications are immense, there is certainly a very pronounced flavor of utter desperation on the part of US top military and national security brass, not to speak of some rah-rah resources going to "ludicrous speed"(c) in praising US military capabilities, which are simply not there.

    Per this:

    long before MAD kicks in.
     
    We all still live under the umbrella of MAD but the main change was taking place namely in conventional weaponry which redefined the impact. Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equaling that of a nuclear weapon.

    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer to the hypothetical deployment of ground based Tomahawks in Poland? From there you can target even San Francisco.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer
     
    No, because X-101 is an air-launched missile and requires initial launch speed which is provided by the carrier aircraft (bombers--TU-160 and TU-95). Having said all that, nothing prevents bombers from launching X-101 (or, God forbids, X-102) precisely from near polar areas. But then, there is another issue--it is Russian Navy. Currently 4 Project 949A (Oscar II) SSGNs of Pacific Fleet are being already upgraded or are planned to with 3M14.

    https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/russias-pacific-fleet-to-upgrade-4-subs-with-supersonic-cruise-missiles/

    So, there will always be a salvo. This is not mention other submarines capable of launching 3M14 or whatever comes after it (upgrades). The important thing here, however, is the fact that the United States simply has no viable Air-defense system. Yes, you may expect an increase of missile-carrying submarines' patrols near US shores on both oceans, the same as continued evolution of a long-range aviation and weapons it carries.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Erebus

    That is why the United States is so desperate for any measure to free itself from any arms limitation obligations thinking it still has a chance—it doesn’t.
     
    I'm wondering whether a better case can't be made for the opposite. NATO's ability to bring treaty compliant missile complexes up to Russia's border gives it an advantage through several stages of escalation before getting to Armageddon. Depending on how the INF Treaty defines "sea-launch", a case can be made that Russia would want that treaty gone even more than the US, and has perhaps even manoeuvred the US into a position where it's the party to break it publicly.

    The INF Treaty forbids ground launched cruise missiles of medium (500-5000km) range, but there's minimal/no technical difference between land and sea launched cruise missiles per se. The difference lies in the launch platform. With Russia's "shipping container" launcher having been developed (if not yet deployed), it's obvious that at least one model in the Kalibr (or some other) series is as much at home on the sea as on land. A quick search didn't reveal how the Treaty defines “sea-launched”, but one assumes it means from international waters. If so, under the INF, Kalibrs launched from container barges plying the (EG) Pregolya River would violate the treaty just as much as any launched from a truck stop outside Moscow.

    Container based launch platforms multiply possible launch locations and decoys beyond counting, neutralizing NATO's escalatory advantage and in fact handing it back to the Russians. Their very low cost compared to sea/air launch platforms means wide scale deployment is viable. NATO could counter with TLAM launchers, but afaik they aren't even mobile, never mind disguised, and in any case the Tomahawk has an abysmal combat record. Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes - <50% success.
    Anyway, this is/would be a strategic game changer.

    However many treaties NATO/US has broken, Russia doesn't want to be seen in the same light. Inducing the Americans to break the INF puts Russia free and clear to deploy at will. With that, MAD rules again. No matter how many Aegis-on-Shore systems NATO installs in Romania, Poland, etc, Europe faces widespread destruction long before MAD kicks in. IOW, by abrogating the INF treaty, the US all but guarantees NATO's irrelevance and dissolution.

    If NATO/US is agitating to dump the INF Treaty, then they either have some secret technological wonder they're itching to field, or they're even more corrupt/stupid than I can imagine. Though I'm shaking my head in wonder, my bet lies on the latter.

    Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.

    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS “substitution” signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat . If that is true (and all circumstantial evidence suggests so) –we are already in a new paradigm. As an example.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2143499-ships-fooled-in-gps-spoofing-attack-suggest-russian-cyberweapon/

    In other words, implications are immense, there is certainly a very pronounced flavor of utter desperation on the part of US top military and national security brass, not to speak of some rah-rah resources going to “ludicrous speed”(c) in praising US military capabilities, which are simply not there.

    Per this:

    long before MAD kicks in.

    We all still live under the umbrella of MAD but the main change was taking place namely in conventional weaponry which redefined the impact. Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equaling that of a nuclear weapon.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Aedib
    Andrei, is feasible the deployment of land-based X-101 in Chukotka as a “symmetrical” answer to the hypothetical deployment of ground based Tomahawks in Poland? From there you can target even San Francisco.
    , @Sergey Krieger
    The best part USA wasted resources, world trust and time and plainly time is working against USA. The key is to have USA safely pinned down and preocuppied with as many things as possible while entropy takes care of the rest making usa not a threat anymore. Military capabilities tend to vanish very quickly when the system that feeds than disintegrates.
    , @Erebus

    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS “substitution” signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat .
     
    That may be, but one would expect a "false grid" to affect all missiles. From what we can tell, at least 14 Tomahawks made direct hits on plausible targets, with a total of ~23 hitting within the Tomahawk's claimed 10m CEP (namely, within the expected 30m distribution pattern). See graphic below:
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4b/Circular_error_probable_-_example.png/330px-Circular_error_probable_-_example.png
    Not knowing the salvo timing or the flight plans, we can only speculate about what re-directed 36 Tomahawks to destinations well outside the Tomahawk's CEP distribution pattern. >60% of a salvo isn't a statistical outlier, ergo: there must be a macro-scale cause. If a "false grid" was applied, it may be that there were delays/errors committed in its deployment, or that the technology cannot be applied uniformly, or that the successful TLAMs were guided to their targets by other means. I'm sure both US & Russian specialists are studying the matter closely.

    Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equalling that of a nuclear weapon.
     
    My main point was that if it wasn't obvious then (with Soviet buffer states still intact), it is surely obvious now that the INF Treaty adversely affects Russia's security and enhances the West's, as well as all of the other countries along Russia's borders.

    Only the US and Russia are signatories, so everybody else has free rein to deploy long range land-based cruise missiles, including China, S. Korea and Japan, but also any of the Central Asian countries the West is trying to elbow their way into. Think of what Afghanistan may have become had US patronage of Karzai's government succeeded. Russia can counter only with sea and air launches. Both Russian and Western analysts have pointed this out.

    On the European front, Russia's security looks better. The Baltic fleet and its ability to hit distant targets from Russian airspace are powerful deterents. Its defence lacks only the ability to deploy on land to guarantee security. As it is Russia can't hit much with <500km range missiles. Meanwhile NATO can hit targets up to 500km inside Russian territory. Targeting Warsaw from Kaliningrad is not a deterrence, NATO would defend Europe to the last Pole. Hitting Brussels, Paris or London is a more serious matter.

    That Western negotiators saw the treaty's strategic implications more clearly than Gorbachev et al 3 decades ago is a historically anomalous error that Russia needs to correct. Standing on legal principle in the face of that threat seems foolish, frankly.

    To sum up, I don't get the idea that the US wants to break the INF. From my admittedly amateur standpoint, I rather think they're terrified of Russia breaking it as it suddenly gains immense advantage to which NATO has no counter. Fixed installation Aegis Ashore platforms loaded with Tomahawks don't pose a fraction of the threat that the Kalibr family poses using cheap containerized platforms that could be literally anywhere, and somewhere else tomorrow.

    I also note the silence from Europe on this matter. They're in the crosshairs of any Russian INF-violating missiles, yet no leader has made an official comment (afaik). All the noise comes from the US. Is there a tacit acceptance in Europe that Russia can't allow Gorbachev's strategic blunder to continue to affect its security? It seems so, and it may be a contributing factor to the stresses we see in the NATO alliance, and even in the EU itself. The obvious implication of Russia abrogating the INF is that diplomacy and good relations with Russia become Europe's best defence, while NATO can contribute only to its destruction. I think that's what the US is worried about, and why it's making the noises it's making.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Aedib
    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.

    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.

    It may have, also, as a possible effect, a much faster and harder transition to a multi-polar world and, most likely, will create a huge turmoil in Europe. It also will marginalize the United States with a new realignment. Ramifications are colossal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    well, europe just signed PESCO. they are already trying to deal with it. the moment it works, is the moment usa looses control over them. also allows EU to defend it self from any external threats.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Beckow
    I like consumer goods economy and good infrastructure a lot more than an arms race (applies to US equally as to Russia). But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don't think it is good for anybody. But we are there.

    I think the last Cold War arms race wasn't that bad - there was never an actual war. Maybe we will get lucky this time too, maybe not.

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views. And the 'collusion' hysteria in US media. I recall Putin saying that Russia will 'never again fight on its own territory and take casualties'. If you believe that, then a potential nuclear escalation could happen very quickly. Unlike last Cold War, there are dozens of touch points on Russia' border where Nato is present and - much worse - where some local leaders are itching to 'fight the Russkies'.

    If there is a catastrophic event - and if we are around to analyse it afterwards - the unnecessary aggressive actions by the West on Russia's borders, the media hysteria, and the local nationalist politics will be listed among the causes.

    We might be living in a short era that will be described in future histories in a Chapter called 'Causes'. (And now I am off to iron my 'Che' shirt, gonna party tonight...).

    But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don’t think it is good for anybody. But we are there.

    I think a new arms race like the Cold War 1.0 is unlikely. Putin clearly claimed Russia will not be trapped in such a race again. We should expect more “asymmetrical reactions” or an “asymmetrical weapons race”. For example INF was circumvented by these lovely small Buyan class corvettes. Think in something like this or something “symmetrical” like a dozen ground based X-101 in Chukotka targeting the whole Alaska and the west US coast as a consequence of ground based Tomahawks in Poland.

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    • Replies: @JerseyJeffersonian
    Aedib,

    Geez, I dunno; some may think that having San Francisco getting nuked really wouldn't chap our asses too badly.
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  • @Kiza
    I think that you may be missing the point big time - a hardliner may be even more desirable than another imbecile as Gorbachev. With Gorbachev, the Western Military Industrial Security budgets started getting cut down. Because Putin is so nightmarishly moderate, they have been desperately lying to their own population, painting Putin as a thug, a killer, a new Hitler etc etc. Imagine the savings in energy and effort if the Russian leader was really a hardliner! Therefore, you cannot scare the West with a possibility of a hardliner in Russia, you can scare them only with another smart-moderate such as Putin.

    As one example, just look at what Putin did in response to the IOC ban of the Russian Olympians. The IOC and its remote controllers were desperate for a rough reaction from Russia or at least a boycott. Instead - "Eat that you Westerners!" (meaning Zionist masters and their Western goyim servants). Instead of talking about the Russian reaction blown up by them into an over-reaction, the World is talking now how shitty IOC is. By serving its masters, the IOC has irreparably damaged itself.

    In essence, Putin always does the opposite to what the provoking Western TPTB hope for, there are hundreds of examples. This is why Putin is such a nightmare in every respect, including the strategic one that Andrei talks about here. Cool and measured master of Zen always, but boiling inside (observe Putin's hands during Oliver Stone interviews). The country is prospering whilst the man is suffering. This is why the West can never find someone as selfless and committed to his nation as Putin is to Russia. The Western "leaders" are scumbags looking for domination, profit, and good life (and to be always told what to do by the masters in the shadows).

    I mostly agree with tour assessment. When a talk about a hardliner I don’t mean a Zhirinovsky-like hardliner. I mean a cool blood FSB hardliner continuing Putin’s master lines. He performed extremely well in face of the Anglo-Zionist axis but sooner or later he will be gone. Finding a right replacement after newt year presidential contest is a “must”.
    I am thinking in someone like Sergei Ivanov or Bortnikov.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Sergei Ivanov
     
    Ivanov is a closet liberal and is also known to be too friendly with Mr. Daniels and other foreign agents of influence, some of them single malt, others of a sour mash nature. Not a chance for him. Shoigu? Possible but how probable--I don't know. Most likely some guy from the "wings" of Kremlin.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Beckow
    I like consumer goods economy and good infrastructure a lot more than an arms race (applies to US equally as to Russia). But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don't think it is good for anybody. But we are there.

    I think the last Cold War arms race wasn't that bad - there was never an actual war. Maybe we will get lucky this time too, maybe not.

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views. And the 'collusion' hysteria in US media. I recall Putin saying that Russia will 'never again fight on its own territory and take casualties'. If you believe that, then a potential nuclear escalation could happen very quickly. Unlike last Cold War, there are dozens of touch points on Russia' border where Nato is present and - much worse - where some local leaders are itching to 'fight the Russkies'.

    If there is a catastrophic event - and if we are around to analyse it afterwards - the unnecessary aggressive actions by the West on Russia's borders, the media hysteria, and the local nationalist politics will be listed among the causes.

    We might be living in a short era that will be described in future histories in a Chapter called 'Causes'. (And now I am off to iron my 'Che' shirt, gonna party tonight...).

    Agree.

    Especially with

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views.

    And with “hysteria”.

    Something is wrong.
    Agreeing I mean.

    I have to go and dust off my Cold War memorabilia.

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  • @peterAUS

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.
     
    Can't disagree.
    But,the last time it didn't work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.
     
    Actually....agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in '80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now...arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US........not quite, IMHO.

    I like consumer goods economy and good infrastructure a lot more than an arms race (applies to US equally as to Russia). But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don’t think it is good for anybody. But we are there.

    I think the last Cold War arms race wasn’t that bad – there was never an actual war. Maybe we will get lucky this time too, maybe not.

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views. And the ‘collusion’ hysteria in US media. I recall Putin saying that Russia will ‘never again fight on its own territory and take casualties’. If you believe that, then a potential nuclear escalation could happen very quickly. Unlike last Cold War, there are dozens of touch points on Russia’ border where Nato is present and – much worse – where some local leaders are itching to ‘fight the Russkies‘.

    If there is a catastrophic event – and if we are around to analyse it afterwards – the unnecessary aggressive actions by the West on Russia’s borders, the media hysteria, and the local nationalist politics will be listed among the causes.

    We might be living in a short era that will be described in future histories in a Chapter called ‘Causes’. (And now I am off to iron my ‘Che’ shirt, gonna party tonight…).

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Agree.

    Especially with

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views.
     
    And with "hysteria".

    Something is wrong.
    Agreeing I mean.

    I have to go and dust off my Cold War memorabilia.
    , @Aedib

    But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don’t think it is good for anybody. But we are there.
     
    I think a new arms race like the Cold War 1.0 is unlikely. Putin clearly claimed Russia will not be trapped in such a race again. We should expect more “asymmetrical reactions” or an “asymmetrical weapons race”. For example INF was circumvented by these lovely small Buyan class corvettes. Think in something like this or something “symmetrical” like a dozen ground based X-101 in Chukotka targeting the whole Alaska and the west US coast as a consequence of ground based Tomahawks in Poland.
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  • @Sergey Krieger
    One has to ask at what Gorbachov was competent at at all. Which brings a question of how a man of such caliber could get elected and managed to stay as long as he did. I remember options of countering possible American star wars fantasized were published in arguments and facts either just before Gorbachov coming to power or soon thereafter . You are quite rightfully noted reasons behind his behavior. Desire to be liked by the West. Hence numerous trips and his wife shopping.

    { Which brings a question of how a man of such caliber could get elected and managed to stay as long as he did.}

    Well, Gorbachev was not really elected: he was selected by his fellow Communist Party sycophants. But the more important question is, were Gorbachev’s predecessors any better?

    [Leonid Brezhnev New Year's Address (1979)]

    How could a superpower allow a man bordering on senility to be its leader?
    This is the fundamental weakness that Russian people have not solved since the time of the Tsars.
    Hat tip to Chinese Communists who have solved it: I am not privy to the details, but apparently some kind of super- committee runs things, and a standard-issue colorless bureaucrat is selected to be titular President for a period, and then another nameless figure takes over.

    I can’t imagine either the Chinese or any Western major power allowing one man to do what Gorbachev did.

    Putin is a great Russian patriot and a very smart leader.
    But what comes after?
    What if another Yeltsin or Gorbachev is elected by the Russian electorate?
    Where is the Russia’s system of checks and balances?

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    You have the point however almost every nation at one point of history has someone similar to gorbachov. Chinese had Wan Mang for example. Before health issues Leonie Iliich was very competent leader and even in coma he was still head and shoulders above Gorbachov. I agree that Russia needs system of checks and balances to avoid one man doing much harm. Selection process should be geared towards picking one capable and deserving. I stress, selecting not election. Mob is gullible which was amply demonstrated in 80's by Soviet people. They did elect Yeltsin twice, didn't they? Russia plainly has no place for another mistake of similar proportions.
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  • @Kiza
    Yes, you are correct, they controlled it alright, but they lost control, and that was my point. The loss of control over Russia is the single biggest f-up that the Zionists have done in the whole history of all Jewery (the real and the pretend). Think about ME wars they initiated as deliberate chaos, then they have not stuffed up too many times before. Losing the biggest country on the planet, now that is a staff up.

    Also, I did not say that Putin came right after Gorbachev, then that he pooped out soon after. As to Yeltsin, to me he is a typical Slavic suffering figure, definitely not an imbecile as Gorbachev. We need to appreciate that it was Yeltsin's wife and daughter which were running Russia during Yeltsin's drunken "rule". The wife and daughter were Zionist and apparently were well connected into the global Zionist network which was ruling and pillaging Russia at the time with their help. To rule in his name, the mother-daughter team was feeding Yeltsin an endless supply of vodka. The rumor has it that during one of his sober episodes, Yeltsin deliberately appointed Putin as his successor as a revenge against those who have abused him (and Yeltsin would not be the first man who turned to booze to escape a horrible wife, would he?). This rumor would explain why Putin is so partial regarding Yeltsin: a wrong man at a wrong time, but trying to do right.

    In summary, it was Gorbachev who caused the suffering of the Russian people not Yeltsin. Yeltsin was just a logical product of the post-Gorbachev chaos.

    Sorry for a few bad spelling mistakes, my tablet appears to be under Apple/CIA control (LOL).

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  • @Aedib
    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.

    I think that you may be missing the point big time – a hardliner may be even more desirable than another imbecile as Gorbachev. With Gorbachev, the Western Military Industrial Security budgets started getting cut down. Because Putin is so nightmarishly moderate, they have been desperately lying to their own population, painting Putin as a thug, a killer, a new Hitler etc etc. Imagine the savings in energy and effort if the Russian leader was really a hardliner! Therefore, you cannot scare the West with a possibility of a hardliner in Russia, you can scare them only with another smart-moderate such as Putin.

    As one example, just look at what Putin did in response to the IOC ban of the Russian Olympians. The IOC and its remote controllers were desperate for a rough reaction from Russia or at least a boycott. Instead – “Eat that you Westerners!” (meaning Zionist masters and their Western goyim servants). Instead of talking about the Russian reaction blown up by them into an over-reaction, the World is talking now how shitty IOC is. By serving its masters, the IOC has irreparably damaged itself.

    In essence, Putin always does the opposite to what the provoking Western TPTB hope for, there are hundreds of examples. This is why Putin is such a nightmare in every respect, including the strategic one that Andrei talks about here. Cool and measured master of Zen always, but boiling inside (observe Putin’s hands during Oliver Stone interviews). The country is prospering whilst the man is suffering. This is why the West can never find someone as selfless and committed to his nation as Putin is to Russia. The Western “leaders” are scumbags looking for domination, profit, and good life (and to be always told what to do by the masters in the shadows).

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    • Replies: @Aedib
    I mostly agree with tour assessment. When a talk about a hardliner I don’t mean a Zhirinovsky-like hardliner. I mean a cool blood FSB hardliner continuing Putin’s master lines. He performed extremely well in face of the Anglo-Zionist axis but sooner or later he will be gone. Finding a right replacement after newt year presidential contest is a “must”.
    I am thinking in someone like Sergei Ivanov or Bortnikov.
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  • @Beckow
    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not 'interesting'.

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60's or early 70's. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more - look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men's fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call 'collapse') could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.

    Can’t disagree.
    But,the last time it didn’t work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.

    Actually….agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in ’80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now…arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US……..not quite, IMHO.

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    • Replies: @Beckow
    I like consumer goods economy and good infrastructure a lot more than an arms race (applies to US equally as to Russia). But as we agreed above the arms race is at this point unavoidable. I don't think it is good for anybody. But we are there.

    I think the last Cold War arms race wasn't that bad - there was never an actual war. Maybe we will get lucky this time too, maybe not.

    What worries me is a total breakdown in a civilised exchange of views. And the 'collusion' hysteria in US media. I recall Putin saying that Russia will 'never again fight on its own territory and take casualties'. If you believe that, then a potential nuclear escalation could happen very quickly. Unlike last Cold War, there are dozens of touch points on Russia' border where Nato is present and - much worse - where some local leaders are itching to 'fight the Russkies'.

    If there is a catastrophic event - and if we are around to analyse it afterwards - the unnecessary aggressive actions by the West on Russia's borders, the media hysteria, and the local nationalist politics will be listed among the causes.

    We might be living in a short era that will be described in future histories in a Chapter called 'Causes'. (And now I am off to iron my 'Che' shirt, gonna party tonight...).

    , @Anon
    "I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake."
    --- Keep believing.
    Meanwhile, 'BOOK PRESENTATION: DOES THE UNITED STATES HAVE A FUTURE? by Gilbert Doctorow. Ph.D. http://usforeignpolicy.blogs.lalibre.be/archive/2017/12/09/speech-to-the-national-press-club-washington-d-c-7-december-1161794.html
    "Let me be specific about how the US attempts to contain and control Russia over the past 25 years have backfired:
    Objective One: Cripple the Russian economy by reducing its single biggest source of export revenues: gas and oil sales to Europe. ... The second dimension of this economic warfare has been sanctions, which the US first imposed in 2012, under the guise of punishing Russian violations of human rights –the Magnitsky Act - and which were vastly expanded in 2014 up to present to punish Russia for alleged violations of international law and of the post-Cold War world order by its annexation of Crimea and intervention in the Ukrainian civil war, in Donbass.
    Objective Two: Isolate Russia and cast it as a pariah state, without friends or allies. Expel Russia from major international gatherings, like the G8. ... A subset of the “isolate Russia” campaign is to cut off Russian access to military technology.
    What have we gotten for these efforts?
    First, the political effect of the economic warfare, especially of the sanctions, has been to rally the Russian population around the President and in defense of the nation... All of this has driven the approval ratings of Putin from about 65% three years ago to over 80% for months on end this year.
    Secondly, these attacks have only strengthened the resilience and self-sufficiency of the Russian economy. ...
    Thirdly, the Russians came up with other pipelines and other partners to ensure their dominant position as provider of imported gas to the EU ..."
    , @Anon
    An answer for the clueless peterAUS:
    From Colonel Lang, a highly competent military man and true patriot of the US --
    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/12/russian-federation-sitrep-14-december-2017.html#tpe-action-posted-6a00d8341c72e153ef01b7c93d0638970b
    "Colonel W. Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces (The Green Berets)." He has been merciless in his criticism of the ziocon idiots who have been destroying his beloved US: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/about.html
    , @pogohere
    Re: "But not so sure it needs to compete with US."

    It seems Putin agrees about avoiding an unnecessary arms race:

    Putin Tells a Joke About a Boy who Swaps his Father's Navy Dagger for a Watch

    1:14 min

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=74&v=WXZXuRmHKSQ
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  • @WHAT
    Oh, they controlled it allright, taking everything of value out. You`re forgetting that before Putin there was Yeltsin, and russians tend to gnash teeth when talking about him so much more compared to Gorbachev.

    Yes, you are correct, they controlled it alright, but they lost control, and that was my point. The loss of control over Russia is the single biggest f-up that the Zionists have done in the whole history of all Jewery (the real and the pretend). Think about ME wars they initiated as deliberate chaos, then they have not stuffed up too many times before. Losing the biggest country on the planet, now that is a staff up.

    Also, I did not say that Putin came right after Gorbachev, then that he pooped out soon after. As to Yeltsin, to me he is a typical Slavic suffering figure, definitely not an imbecile as Gorbachev. We need to appreciate that it was Yeltsin’s wife and daughter which were running Russia during Yeltsin’s drunken “rule”. The wife and daughter were Zionist and apparently were well connected into the global Zionist network which was ruling and pillaging Russia at the time with their help. To rule in his name, the mother-daughter team was feeding Yeltsin an endless supply of vodka. The rumor has it that during one of his sober episodes, Yeltsin deliberately appointed Putin as his successor as a revenge against those who have abused him (and Yeltsin would not be the first man who turned to booze to escape a horrible wife, would he?). This rumor would explain why Putin is so partial regarding Yeltsin: a wrong man at a wrong time, but trying to do right.

    In summary, it was Gorbachev who caused the suffering of the Russian people not Yeltsin. Yeltsin was just a logical product of the post-Gorbachev chaos.

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    • Replies: @Kiza
    Sorry for a few bad spelling mistakes, my tablet appears to be under Apple/CIA control (LOL).
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  • @Ilyana_Rozumova
    Putin violated the Helsinki Final Act. (Your quote)
    No he did not!!!!!!!!
    He said this: F you and F your Helsinki crap.
    I do advise you to learn the diplomatic language.

    Don’t waste time arguing with a troll. He is a die-hard neocon, not very bright at that, and every point of his induces a head shake. Just press the down arrow key and move on.

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  • @peterAUS
    So, post '91 lessons, for Russia/Rusophiles are:
    1. Do not trust agreement with US.
    I get that.
    2. Keep MAD capability if you want to be treated as a sovereign state.
    I get that too.
    3. The Soviet system collapsed because of Gorbachov and his team.
    Sounds simplistic. Sounds as everything was fine just some incompetent/traitorous people mssed all that up. Hence, no need for any reforms etc. Good.
    4. Getting, again, in arms race with US is a right thing to do.
    Sounds.......interesting.

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    Do you understand that 4) follows automatically from 1) and 2)? I would say it is unavoidable, not ‘interesting’.
     
    Can't disagree.
    But,the last time it didn't work well.
    Why would it work better this time?

    Regarding 3), the Soviet system had to change because it reached its built-in potential, probably by late 60′s or early 70′s. (It delivered the basic social infrastructure of life for most people, and they wanted more – look into the Maslow hierarchy of needs to understand how that works.)

    There was no point to it any more. Why they kept it going for another 20 years beats me, probably old men’s fears and ambitions. Gorbachev turned out to be the wrong man to do it; too naive, impressionable and a bit of a conformist. It was just bad luck that he was in charge. The change (what you call ‘collapse’) could had been handled much better. I think everyone agrees to that.
     
    Actually....agree.
    Imagine that.

    I still believe that focusing on arms race and not on improving Russian society could prove a mistake.
    Actually as similar mistake done in '80s.

    As I wrote about before, instead of high tech weaponry focus should be on consumer goods, infrastructure and such in Russia.

    Now, I do know that Russia does need good weapons, no doubt about that.
    But not so sure it needs to compete with US.
    Nuclear deterrent should be quite enough.

    Now...arms race against EU/China and the rest of neighbors would make sense.
    I could envisage a heavy conventional clash against those.
    Against US........not quite, IMHO.
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  • @Michael Kenny
    The usual pro-Putin propaganda. Putin's irresistible hoards with their super modern technology! Capitulate, America, while you've still got a chance! Crimea: a surprise attack by what appears to have been private contractors which met no military resistance. What a stupendous feat of arms! Donbas: Putin denies the troops there are even his. Whoever they are, they've been stopped dead in their tracks by the rickety, cold war-era Ukrainian military. What a stupendous feat of arms! Syria: air power used against insurgents who themselves had no air support. What a stupendous feat of arms! Moral of the story: Putin doesn't dare use his rickety conscript army. The Caspian thing is an obvious scam which nobody beleives. "NATO has violated several treaties and tacit understandings". With whom? Russia has existed as a sovereign state only since 1991 and is the largest piece of wreckage from the collapse of the Soviet Union, a communist dictatorship. If Putin claims that Russia, as a successor state to the Soviet Union, is entitled to the benefit of treaties concluded with the Soviet Union, he must also accept the treaty obligations entered into by the Soviet Union. By invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, Putin violated the Helsinki Final Act. Thus, by his own act, he has renounced the benefit of successor state status. He can't have it both ways! Thus, the impression this article makes is that the Rusian government considers its military forces inferior to those of the US and the European members of NATO. I think most of the planet would agree.

    Your comment #18 is a demonstration of true stealth. Having almost no point of contact with reality leaves nothing for your interlocutor’s targeting radar to lock onto.

    Sell your magic formula to Lockheed Martin. I hear the F35 needs it bad.

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  • with ABM and similar systems deployed in EU, only a stupid russian would think the INF treaty is still in place.

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  • That is why the United States is so desperate for any measure to free itself from any arms limitation obligations thinking it still has a chance—it doesn’t.

    I’m wondering whether a better case can’t be made for the opposite. NATO’s ability to bring treaty compliant missile complexes up to Russia’s border gives it an advantage through several stages of escalation before getting to Armageddon. Depending on how the INF Treaty defines “sea-launch”, a case can be made that Russia would want that treaty gone even more than the US, and has perhaps even manoeuvred the US into a position where it’s the party to break it publicly.

    The INF Treaty forbids ground launched cruise missiles of medium (500-5000km) range, but there’s minimal/no technical difference between land and sea launched cruise missiles per se. The difference lies in the launch platform. With Russia’s “shipping container” launcher having been developed (if not yet deployed), it’s obvious that at least one model in the Kalibr (or some other) series is as much at home on the sea as on land. A quick search didn’t reveal how the Treaty defines “sea-launched”, but one assumes it means from international waters. If so, under the INF, Kalibrs launched from container barges plying the (EG) Pregolya River would violate the treaty just as much as any launched from a truck stop outside Moscow.

    Container based launch platforms multiply possible launch locations and decoys beyond counting, neutralizing NATO’s escalatory advantage and in fact handing it back to the Russians. Their very low cost compared to sea/air launch platforms means wide scale deployment is viable. NATO could counter with TLAM launchers, but afaik they aren’t even mobile, never mind disguised, and in any case the Tomahawk has an abysmal combat record. Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.
    Anyway, this is/would be a strategic game changer.

    However many treaties NATO/US has broken, Russia doesn't want to be seen in the same light. Inducing the Americans to break the INF puts Russia free and clear to deploy at will. With that, MAD rules again. No matter how many Aegis-on-Shore systems NATO installs in Romania, Poland, etc, Europe faces widespread destruction long before MAD kicks in. IOW, by abrogating the INF treaty, the US all but guarantees NATO's irrelevance and dissolution.

    If NATO/US is agitating to dump the INF Treaty, then they either have some secret technological wonder they're itching to field, or they're even more corrupt/stupid than I can imagine. Though I'm shaking my head in wonder, my bet lies on the latter.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Digging into past reports, Shayrat was typical of Tomahawk salvoes – <50% success.
     
    An emerging info now does suggest a high probability of GPS "substitution" signal (new, false grid) around Shayrat . If that is true (and all circumstantial evidence suggests so) --we are already in a new paradigm. As an example.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2143499-ships-fooled-in-gps-spoofing-attack-suggest-russian-cyberweapon/

    In other words, implications are immense, there is certainly a very pronounced flavor of utter desperation on the part of US top military and national security brass, not to speak of some rah-rah resources going to "ludicrous speed"(c) in praising US military capabilities, which are simply not there.

    Per this:

    long before MAD kicks in.
     
    We all still live under the umbrella of MAD but the main change was taking place namely in conventional weaponry which redefined the impact. Even in 1980s in military circles (in USSR) it was a rather common knowledge that coming High Precision Stand-Off conventional weapons can have an operational and even strategic impact equaling that of a nuclear weapon.
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  • @Andrei Martyanov
    I generally agree but with this:

    his failure came in gambling for peace
     
    I don't remember if it was in his or Raisa's memoirs but I repeat almost verbatim what he said to Raisa and Shevardnadze when facing a crowd of adulating people in one of the Italy's major cities during one of his visits in late 1980s: "That is why it is all worth it". He wanted admiration, he craved being liked and he was NOT gambling, he merely followed his lust. It wasn't a gamble, it was a very conscious choice on his part.

    “what he said to Raisa and Shevardnadze when facing a crowd of adulating people in one of the Italy’s major cities during one of his visits in late 1980s: “That is why it is all worth it”. ”

    Well, looks like his gamble paid off. He is peddling pizzas now to adulating TV viewers.
    So it was all worth to him. Not sure about the rest of Soviet people. Sheer idiocy of what happened is such that it looks like many still cannot put their finger as to what caused all of this. Either he was bought and recruited long before he became General Secretary, while my opinion is that he was mere fool. I notice that many fools who do not look like fools at first but intelligent people use their so called intelligence to basically do very stupid things. Beneath they are fools however hence the hubris. I would put neocons in same category as Gorbachev hence outcomes are similar.

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    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov, Kiza
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  • @Michael Kenny
    The usual pro-Putin propaganda. Putin's irresistible hoards with their super modern technology! Capitulate, America, while you've still got a chance! Crimea: a surprise attack by what appears to have been private contractors which met no military resistance. What a stupendous feat of arms! Donbas: Putin denies the troops there are even his. Whoever they are, they've been stopped dead in their tracks by the rickety, cold war-era Ukrainian military. What a stupendous feat of arms! Syria: air power used against insurgents who themselves had no air support. What a stupendous feat of arms! Moral of the story: Putin doesn't dare use his rickety conscript army. The Caspian thing is an obvious scam which nobody beleives. "NATO has violated several treaties and tacit understandings". With whom? Russia has existed as a sovereign state only since 1991 and is the largest piece of wreckage from the collapse of the Soviet Union, a communist dictatorship. If Putin claims that Russia, as a successor state to the Soviet Union, is entitled to the benefit of treaties concluded with the Soviet Union, he must also accept the treaty obligations entered into by the Soviet Union. By invading Ukraine and annexing Crimea, Putin violated the Helsinki Final Act. Thus, by his own act, he has renounced the benefit of successor state status. He can't have it both ways! Thus, the impression this article makes is that the Rusian government considers its military forces inferior to those of the US and the European members of NATO. I think most of the planet would agree.

    Putin violated the Helsinki Final Act. (Your quote)
    No he did not!!!!!!!!
    He said this: F you and F your Helsinki crap.
    I do advise you to learn the diplomatic language.

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    • Replies: @yeah
    Don't waste time arguing with a troll. He is a die-hard neocon, not very bright at that, and every point of his induces a head shake. Just press the down arrow key and move on.
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  • @Brabantian
    Really, seriously ... the overall evidence, considered objectively, is that 'nuclear weapons' have never existed. From the evidence, it's clear that 'nuclear weapons' as a whole were fake from the beginning, with multiple proofs now that, e.g., Hiroshima was a chemical fire-bombing war crime, just like Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Dresden, Hamburg.

    The United Nations etc initiative to 'ban nuclear weapons' is actually a concerted effort to bury the hoax. Unfortunately they have been unable to think of a similar plan to bury another massive global hoax, the USA alleged 'landings on the moon' of 1969-72 with no one ever going back since then.

    The political context for the nuclear weapons scam after Hiroshima, was the USA-Moscow deal in Stalin's later years, that Stalin would pretend to be a 'nuclear weapons power' too, riches & tech would be passed on to Soviet elites (as Antony Sutton, 'Best Enemy Money Can Buy' proved was happening); and the world would be in fear of 'nuclear terror' supporting big-power domination of the earth & trillions of profits for oligarchs via 'weapons industries'. All the 'nuclear powers' have their reasons and motivations to continue colluding in this hoax today.

    Swedish nuclear engineer Anders Björkman, once asked to investigate 'nuclear weapons' for Sweden, has been showing in detail for years that nuclear weapons are impossible, fake, & have never existed (versus nuclear power, which does work). From a recent overview of why Hiroshima was not a 'nuclear' or 'atomic bomb' explosion:
    http://www.newnationalist.net/2017/08/01/was-hiroshima-firebombed-and-not-nuked/

    - The area destroyed in Hiroshima, was only one-fourth the size of the area destroyed in Tokyo fire-bombing with identical devastation

    - US military Major Alexander de Seversky, surveying Japanese cities shortly afterwards, found wooden-house-burned Hiroshima to show no signs at all of anything other than chemical fire-bombing, just like Tokyo, Yokohama & Osaka ... central iron-steel buildings were intact, fragile objects undamaged, even flag poles still up beneath 'ground zero' ... no spot where things had been 'vapourised'

    - The 'smoking gun' proving Hiroshima was fake, is in 1945 US military records, logging 66 aeroplanes as 'chemically fire-bombing Imabari, Japan', close to Hiroshima, at the same date & hour as the alleged 'atomic bomb' ... Imabari which no longer existed, having been totally destroyed in 2 previous fire-bombing raids ... this was the fleet that fire-bombed Hiroshima

    - German Jesuit Rev John Siemes, eye-witness in Hiroshima, documented local witnesses reporting planes spreading incendiary material

    - At the time of Hiroshima there was huge intimidation, 'death penalty for unauthorised speaking', suppression of Japanese & USA witnesses & involved persons ... whilst allowed statements seem scripted & false-seeming

    - Photographs of Hiroshima smoke look exactly like columns of smoke from chemical fire-bombing, confirmed by Japanese witnesses who eventually did speak ... in general, the 'mushroom clouds' eventually marketed as the 'nuclear weapon signature', are also from certain types of chemical explosions, as recently exploding Chinese factories have shown

    - A 1990 medical study, completing 40 years of investigation of Hiroshima & Nagasaki survivors, showed no genetic damage, as is typical of those exposed to too-high radiation

    Recently, there has been a move to wind down the nuclear weapons hoax, with this year's 'UN resolution to ban & destroy all nuclear weapons' ... a 'great favour' the coming one-world globalist government will do for us, putting the nuclear weapons hoax to rest. They can claim to dis-assemble all the nuclear weapons like South Africa claimed to do in the past.

    But over 72 years, all 10 alleged 'nuclear bomb nations' have played along, in what has been a global scam, trillions for oligarchs owning armaments industries, the 'nuclear weapons' scam a major tool for the big and medium powers who are allowed to claim to have them ... Consider the history:

    1945 - USA chemically bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki (like Tokyo, Dresden, Hamburg...), also dumping illness-inducing radioactive rubbish. Witnesses ordered to shut up under threat of death, chemical-blast 'mushroom clouds' in film & photos - USA HAS NUCLEAR BOMBS

    1949 - Soviet Union accepts deal for Russian elites to get wealthy by playing along with Cold War & global nuclear terror - COMMIE RUSSIA HAS THE BOMB

    1952 - UK Brits & London financial centre don't want to be 2nd class - UK HAS THE BOMB

    1960 - France chafes not to be 2nd class to Brits - FRANCE & DE GAULLE HAVE THE BOMB

    1964 - China upgraded to major league - COMMIE CHINA HAS THE BOMB

    1966 - Israel joins the club in time to terrorise & blackmail Arabs in 1967 & 1973 wars - JEWS HAVE THE BOMB & JEWS ARE READY TO SAMSON OPTION EVERYBODY, later 'confirmed' by Mordechai Vanunu to MI6 London Times & then maybe living on Haifa beach, not 'in Israeli prison', like 'not really in Ecuador Embassy' Julian Assange

    1974 - India accepted as big power, debasing its heritage naming its bomb programme 'Smiling Buddha' - INDIA HAS THE BOMB

    1979 - South Africa's white apartheid gov gets to play - WHITE RACIST SOUTH AFRICA HAS THE BOMB READY TO KILL BLACK PEOPLE ... but 'dismantles bombs' before Mandela & black government can find out the scam

    1998 - Pakistan becomes central player in new Western anti-Muslim theme - PAKISTANI MUSLIMS HAVE THE BOMB & OSAMA OR TERRORISTS MIGHT GET AHOLD OF IT

    2006 - North Korea, always making deals, gets to upgrade - CRAZY NORTH KOREA HAS THE BOMB

    'Nuclear terror' - A greatly profitable business, & a superbly sticky piece of hoax propaganda

    I’ve been to Hanford, Savannah River, into Minuteman silos, Russian hardened facilities and an SS 25 base.

    There is one hell of a lot of money being spent on these “fakes”.

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  • @Anon
    "So Russians have no reason to worry"
    -- Sure. Your words are a word-by-word repeat of what the ziocon “experts” from various "think tanks" have been telling, despite reality.
    The reality: "…the United States is now spending $46 million per hour on nuclear weapons: that’s $46 million every hour, 24 hours a day, every day."
    https://consortiumnews.com/2017/12/12/silencing-of-courageous-documentaries/

    The war profiteers and the half-wit "exceptional" and "chosen" want, in their imbecile arrogance, a total dominance. Read PNAC to get the glimpse of the world we live today, governed by the psychopaths, opportunists, and cowards.

    Please do not be naive. Russian are aware how many silos US have. And how many new they built.
    Also they know what US has in the oceans. Russians will never be caught with pants down like it happened in WW ll. The MAD is not only on paper Russians take care that it is reality.
    Those few little rockets in Romania and Poland is nothing but provocation, but still Russians made compensation moves. Although Putin did laugh when he was told that those rockets are protection
    from Iran’s missiles, still he would not laugh if it would be serious matter.

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  • @ANOSPH
    Bravo, Andrei! Yet another excellent, myth-debunking piece. Is there any chance you're planning to translate it into Russian? I'd like my wife to read it but she's just learning English and this article would present a challenge for her.

    Thank you for your kind words. As per Russian version–I didn’t even think about it yet. But at least you may try Google Translate, granted you will break the article in several smaller parts–it is readable. Not the best Russian but it gets the point across.

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  • @Andrei Martyanov

    Andrei, is it not obvious then that the real solution for US is to kill Putin? Thinking the way the Westerners think, maybe Russia still has a supply of imbeciles such as Gorbachev, maybe extinguishing Communism did not extinguish the spring of such “leaders”. Therefore, after Putin maybe Russia would have another Gorbachev. Problem solved for US.
     
    Alexandr Prokhanov openly, including from the podiums on the leading TV talk shows, floats this idea, that the United States is keenly interested in physical removal of Putin. No one, to my knowledge, tried to contradict him. People are aware.

    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.

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    • Replies: @Kiza
    I think that you may be missing the point big time - a hardliner may be even more desirable than another imbecile as Gorbachev. With Gorbachev, the Western Military Industrial Security budgets started getting cut down. Because Putin is so nightmarishly moderate, they have been desperately lying to their own population, painting Putin as a thug, a killer, a new Hitler etc etc. Imagine the savings in energy and effort if the Russian leader was really a hardliner! Therefore, you cannot scare the West with a possibility of a hardliner in Russia, you can scare them only with another smart-moderate such as Putin.

    As one example, just look at what Putin did in response to the IOC ban of the Russian Olympians. The IOC and its remote controllers were desperate for a rough reaction from Russia or at least a boycott. Instead - "Eat that you Westerners!" (meaning Zionist masters and their Western goyim servants). Instead of talking about the Russian reaction blown up by them into an over-reaction, the World is talking now how shitty IOC is. By serving its masters, the IOC has irreparably damaged itself.

    In essence, Putin always does the opposite to what the provoking Western TPTB hope for, there are hundreds of examples. This is why Putin is such a nightmare in every respect, including the strategic one that Andrei talks about here. Cool and measured master of Zen always, but boiling inside (observe Putin's hands during Oliver Stone interviews). The country is prospering whilst the man is suffering. This is why the West can never find someone as selfless and committed to his nation as Putin is to Russia. The Western "leaders" are scumbags looking for domination, profit, and good life (and to be always told what to do by the masters in the shadows).
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    The physical removal of Putin may lead to a more hardliner replacement like for example Bortnikov. Very risky move for the Anglosionist axis.
     
    It may have, also, as a possible effect, a much faster and harder transition to a multi-polar world and, most likely, will create a huge turmoil in Europe. It also will marginalize the United States with a new realignment. Ramifications are colossal.
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