The Unz Review - Mobile
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New Reply
Current Commenter says:

Leave a Reply -


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Commenters to FollowHide Excerpts
By Authors Filter?
Andrei Martyanov Andrew J. Bacevich Andrew Joyce Andrew Napolitano Boyd D. Cathey Brad Griffin C.J. Hopkins Chanda Chisala Eamonn Fingleton Eric Margolis Fred Reed Godfree Roberts Gustavo Arellano Ilana Mercer Israel Shamir James Kirkpatrick James Petras James Thompson Jared Taylor JayMan John Derbyshire John Pilger Jonathan Revusky Kevin MacDonald Linh Dinh Michael Hoffman Michael Hudson Mike Whitney Nathan Cofnas Norman Finkelstein Pat Buchanan Patrick Cockburn Paul Craig Roberts Paul Gottfried Paul Kersey Peter Frost Peter Lee Philip Giraldi Philip Weiss Robert Weissberg Ron Paul Ron Unz Stephen J. Sniegoski The Saker Tom Engelhardt A. Graham Adam Hochschild Aedon Cassiel Ahmet Öncü Alexander Cockburn Alexander Hart Alfred McCoy Alison Rose Levy Alison Weir Anand Gopal Andre Damon Andrew Cockburn Andrew Fraser Andy Kroll Ann Jones Anonymous Anthony DiMaggio Ariel Dorfman Arlie Russell Hochschild Arno Develay Arnold Isaacs Artem Zagorodnov Astra Taylor Austen Layard Aviva Chomsky Ayman Fadel Barbara Ehrenreich Barbara Garson Barbara Myers Barry Lando Belle Chesler Beverly Gologorsky Bill Black Bill Moyers Bob Dreyfuss Bonnie Faulkner Brenton Sanderson Brett Redmayne-Titley Brian Dew Carl Horowitz Catherine Crump Charles Bausman Charles Goodhart Charles Wood Charlotteville Survivor Chase Madar Chris Hedges Chris Roberts Christian Appy Christopher DeGroot Chuck Spinney Coleen Rowley Cooper Sterling Craig Murray Dahr Jamail Dan E. Phillips Dan Sanchez Daniel McAdams Danny Sjursen Dave Kranzler Dave Lindorff David Barsamian David Bromwich David Chibo David Gordon David North David Vine David Walsh David William Pear Dean Baker Dennis Saffran Diana Johnstone Dilip Hiro Dirk Bezemer Ed Warner Edmund Connelly Eduardo Galeano Ellen Cantarow Ellen Packer Ellison Lodge Eric Draitser Eric Zuesse Erik Edstrom Erika Eichelberger Erin L. Thompson Eugene Girin F. Roger Devlin Franklin Lamb Frida Berrigan Friedrich Zauner Gabriel Black Gary Corseri Gary North Gary Younge Gene Tuttle George Albert George Bogdanich George Szamuely Georgianne Nienaber Glenn Greenwald Greg Grandin Greg Johnson Gregoire Chamayou Gregory Foster Gregory Hood Gregory Wilpert Guest Admin Hannah Appel Hans-Hermann Hoppe Harri Honkanen Henry Cockburn Hina Shamsi Howard Zinn Hubert Collins Hugh McInnish Ira Chernus Jack Kerwick Jack Rasmus Jack Ravenwood Jack Sen James Bovard James Carroll James Fulford Jane Lazarre Jared S. Baumeister Jason C. Ditz Jason Kessler Jay Stanley Jeff J. Brown Jeffrey Blankfort Jeffrey St. Clair Jen Marlowe Jeremiah Goulka Jeremy Cooper Jesse Mossman Jim Daniel Jim Kavanagh JoAnn Wypijewski Joe Lauria Johannes Wahlstrom John W. Dower John Feffer John Fund John Harrison Sims John Reid John Stauber John Taylor John V. Walsh John Williams Jon Else Jonathan Alan King Jonathan Anomaly Jonathan Rooper Jonathan Schell Joseph Kishore Juan Cole Judith Coburn K.R. Bolton Karel Van Wolferen Karen Greenberg Kelley Vlahos Kersasp D. Shekhdar Kevin Barrett Kevin Zeese Kshama Sawant Lance Welton Laura Gottesdiener Laura Poitras Laurent Guyénot Lawrence G. Proulx Leo Hohmann Linda Preston Logical Meme Lorraine Barlett M.G. Miles Mac Deford Maidhc O Cathail Malcolm Unwell Marcus Alethia Marcus Cicero Margaret Flowers Mark Danner Mark Engler Mark Perry Matt Parrott Mattea Kramer Matthew Harwood Matthew Richer Matthew Stevenson Max Blumenthal Max Denken Max North Maya Schenwar Michael Gould-Wartofsky Michael Schwartz Michael T. Klare Murray Polner Nan Levinson Naomi Oreskes Nate Terani Ned Stark Nelson Rosit Nicholas Stix Nick Kollerstrom Nick Turse Noam Chomsky Nomi Prins Patrick Cleburne Patrick Cloutier Paul Cochrane Paul Engler Paul Nachman Paul Nehlen Pepe Escobar Peter Brimelow Peter Gemma Peter Van Buren Pierre M. Sprey Pratap Chatterjee Publius Decius Mus Rajan Menon Ralph Nader Ramin Mazaheri Ramziya Zaripova Randy Shields Ray McGovern Razib Khan Rebecca Gordon Rebecca Solnit Richard Krushnic Richard Silverstein Rick Shenkman Rita Rozhkova Robert Baxter Robert Bonomo Robert Fisk Robert Lipsyte Robert Parry Robert Roth Robert S. Griffin Robert Scheer Robert Trivers Robin Eastman Abaya Roger Dooghy Ronald N. Neff Rory Fanning Sam Francis Sam Husseini Sayed Hasan Sharmini Peries Sheldon Richman Spencer Davenport Spencer Quinn Stefan Karganovic Steffen A. Woll Stephanie Savell Stephen J. Rossi Steve Fraser Steven Yates Sydney Schanberg Tanya Golash-Boza Ted Rall Theodore A. Postol Thierry Meyssan Thomas Frank Thomas O. Meehan Tim Shorrock Tim Weiner Tobias Langdon Todd E. Pierce Todd Gitlin Todd Miller Tom Piatak Tom Suarez Tom Sunic Tracy Rosenberg Virginia Dare Vladimir Brovkin Vox Day W. Patrick Lang Walter Block William Binney William DeBuys William Hartung William J. Astore Winslow T. Wheeler Ximena Ortiz Yan Shen
Nothing found
By Topics/Categories Filter?
2016 Election 9/11 Academia AIPAC Alt Right American Media American Military American Pravda Anti-Semitism Benjamin Netanyahu Blacks Britain China Conservative Movement Conspiracy Theories Deep State Donald Trump Economics Foreign Policy Hillary Clinton History Ideology Immigration IQ Iran ISIS Islam Israel Israel Lobby Israel/Palestine Jews Middle East Neocons Political Correctness Race/IQ Race/Ethnicity Republicans Russia Science Syria Terrorism Turkey Ukraine Vladimir Putin World War II 1971 War 2008 Election 2012 Election 2014 Election 23andMe 70th Anniversary Parade 75-0-25 Or Something A Farewell To Alms A. J. West A Troublesome Inheritance Aarab Barghouti Abc News Abdelhamid Abaaoud Abe Abe Foxman Abigail Marsh Abortion Abraham Lincoln Abu Ghraib Abu Zubaydah Academy Awards Acheivement Gap Acid Attacks Adam Schiff Addiction Adoptees Adoption Adoption Twins ADRA2b AEI Affective Empathy Affirmative Action Affordable Family Formation Afghanistan Africa African Americans African Genetics Africans Afrikaner Afrocentricism Agriculture Aha AIDS Ain't Nobody Got Time For That. Ainu Aircraft Carriers AirSea Battle Al Jazeera Al-Qaeda Alan Dershowitz Alan Macfarlane Albania Alberto Del Rosario Albion's Seed Alcohol Alcoholism Alexander Hamilton Alexandre Skirda Alexis De Tocqueville Algeria All Human Behavioral Traits Are Heritable All Traits Are Heritable Alpha Centauri Alpha Males Alt Left Altruism Amazon.com America The Beautiful American Atheists American Debt American Exceptionalism American Flag American Jews American Left American Legion American Nations American Nations American Prisons American Renaissance Americana Amerindians Amish Amish Quotient Amnesty Amnesty International Amoral Familialism Amy Chua Amygdala An Hbd Liberal Anaconda Anatoly Karlin Ancestry Ancient DNA Ancient Genetics Ancient Jews Ancient Near East Anders Breivik Andrei Nekrasov Andrew Jackson Androids Angela Stent Angelina Jolie Anglo-Saxons Ann Coulter Anne Buchanan Anne Heche Annual Country Reports On Terrorism Anthropology Antibiotics Antifa Antiquity Antiracism Antisocial Behavior Antiwar Movement Antonin Scalia Antonio Trillanes IV Anywhere But Here Apartheid Appalachia Appalachians Arab Christianity Arab Spring Arabs Archaic DNA Archaic Humans Arctic Humans Arctic Resources Argentina Argentina Default Armenians Army-McCarthy Hearings Arnon Milchan Art Arthur Jensen Artificial Intelligence As-Safir Ash Carter Ashkenazi Intelligence Ashkenazi Jews Ashraf Ghani Asia Asian Americans Asian Quotas Asians ASPM Assassinations Assimilation Assortative Mating Atheism Atlantic Council Attractiveness Attractiveness Australia Australian Aboriginals Austria Austro-Hungarian Empire Austronesians Autism Automation Avi Tuschman Avigdor Lieberman Ayodhhya Babri Masjid Baby Boom Baby Gap Baby Girl Jay Backlash Bacterial Vaginosis Bad Science Bahrain Balanced Polymorphism Balkans Baltimore Riots Bangladesh Banking Banking Industry Banking System Banks Barack H. Obama Barack Obama Barbara Comstock Bariatric Surgery Baseball Bashar Al-Assad Baumeister BDA BDS Movement Beauty Beauty Standards Behavior Genetics Behavioral Genetics Behaviorism Beijing Belgrade Embassy Bombing Believeing In Observational Studies Is Nuts Ben Cardin Ben Carson Benghazi Benjamin Cardin Berlin Wall Bernard Henri-Levy Bernard Lewis Bernie Madoff Bernie Sanders Bernies Sanders Beta Males BICOM Big Five Bilingual Education Bill 59 Bill Clinton Bill Kristol Bill Maher Billionaires Billy Graham Birds Of A Feather Birth Order Birth Rate Bisexuality Bisexuals BJP Black Americans Black Crime Black History Black Lives Matter Black Metal Black Muslims Black Panthers Black Women Attractiveness Blackface Blade Runner Blogging Blond Hair Blue Eyes Bmi Boasian Anthropology Boderlanders Boeing Boers Boiling Off Boko Haram Bolshevik Revolution Books Border Reivers Borderlander Borderlanders Boris Johnson Bosnia Boston Bomb Boston Marathon Bombing Bowe Bergdahl Boycott Divest And Sanction Boycott Divestment And Sanctions Brain Brain Scans Brain Size Brain Structure Brazil Breaking Down The Bullshit Breeder's Equation Bret Stephens Brexit Brian Boutwell Brian Resnick BRICs Brighter Brains Brighton Broken Hill Brown Eyes Bruce Jenner Bruce Lahn brussels Bryan Caplan BS Bundy Family Burakumin Burma Bush Administration C-section Cagots Caitlyn Jenner California Cambodia Cameron Russell Campaign Finance Campaign For Liberty Campus Rape Canada Canada Day Canadian Flag Canadians Cancer Candida Albicans Cannabis Capital Punishment Capitalism Captain Chicken Cardiovascular Disease Care Package Carl Sagan Carly Fiorina Caroline Glick Carroll Quigley Carry Me Back To Ole Virginny Carter Page Castes Catalonia Catholic Church Catholicism Catholics Causation Cavaliers CCTV Censorship Central Asia Chanda Chisala Charles Darwin Charles Krauthammer Charles Murray Charles Schumer Charleston Shooting Charlie Hebdo Charlie Rose Charlottesville Chechens Chechnya Cherlie Hebdo Child Abuse Child Labor Children Chimerism China/America China Stock Market Meltdown China Vietnam Chinese Chinese Communist Party Chinese Evolution Chinese Exclusion Act Chlamydia Chris Gown Chris Rock Chris Stringer Christian Fundamentalism Christianity Christmas Christopher Steele Chuck Chuck Hagel Chuck Schumer CIA Cinema Civil Liberties Civil Rights Civil War Civilian Deaths CJIA Clannishness Clans Clark-unz Selection Classical Economics Classical History Claude-Lévi-Strauss Climate Climate Change Clinton Global Initiative Cliodynamics Cloudburst Flight Clovis Cochran And Harpending Coefficient Of Relationship Cognitive Empathy Cognitive Psychology Cohorts Cold War Colin Kaepernick Colin Woodard Colombia Colonialism Colonists Coming Apart Comments Communism Confederacy Confederate Flag Conflict Of Interest Congress Consanguinity Conscientiousness Consequences Conservatism Conservatives Constitution Constitutional Theory Consumer Debt Cornel West Corporal Punishment Correlation Is Still Not Causation Corruption Corruption Perception Index Costa Concordia Cousin Marriage Cover Story CPEC Craniometry CRIF Crime Crimea Criminality Crowded Crowding Cruise Missiles Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis Cuckold Envy Cuckservative Cultural Evolution Cultural Marxism Cut The Sh*t Guys DACA Dads Vs Cads Daily Mail Dalai Lama Dallas Shooting Dalliard Dalton Trumbo Damascus Bombing Dan Freedman Dana Milbank Daniel Callahan Danish Daren Acemoglu Dark Ages Dark Tetrad Dark Triad Darwinism Data Posts David Brooks David Friedman David Frum David Goldenberg David Hackett Fischer David Ignatius David Katz David Kramer David Lane David Petraeus Davide Piffer Davos Death Death Penalty Debbie Wasserman-Schultz Debt Declaration Of Universal Human Rights Deep Sleep Deep South Democracy Democratic Party Democrats Demographic Transition Demographics Demography Denisovans Denmark Dennis Ross Depression Deprivation Deregulation Derek Harvey Desired Family Size Detroit Development Developmental Noise Developmental Stability Diabetes Diagnostic And Statistical Manual Of Mental Disorders Dialects Dick Cheney Die Nibelungen Dienekes Diet Different Peoples Is Different Dinesh D'Souza Dirty Bomb Discrimination Discrimination Paradigm Disney Dissent Diversity Dixie Django Unchained Do You Really Want To Know? Doing My Part Doll Tests Dollar Domestic Terrorism Dominique Strauss-Kahn Dopamine Douglas MacArthur Dr James Thompson Drd4 Dreams From My Father Dresden Drew Barrymore Dreyfus Affair Drinking Drone War Drones Drug Cartels Drugs Dry Counties DSM Dunning-kruger Effect Dusk In Autumn Dustin Hoffman Duterte Dylan Roof Dylann Roof Dysgenic E.O. 9066 E. O. Wilson Eagleman East Asia East Asians Eastern Europe Eastern Europeans Ebola Economic Development Economic Sanctions Economy Ed Miller Education Edward Price Edward Snowden EEA Egypt Eisenhower El Salvador Elections Electric Cars Elie Wiesel Eliot Cohen Eliot Engel Elites Ellen Walker Elliot Abrams Elliot Rodger Elliott Abrams Elon Musk Emigration Emil Kirkegaard Emmanuel Macron Emmanuel Todd Empathy England English Civil War Enhanced Interrogations Enoch Powell Entrepreneurship Environment Environmental Estrogens Environmentalism Erdogan Eric Cantor Espionage Estrogen Ethiopia Ethnic Genetic Interests Ethnic Nepotism Ethnicity EU Eugenic Eugenics Eurasia Europe European Right European Union Europeans Eurozone Everything Evil Evolution Evolutionary Biology Evolutionary Psychology Exercise Extraversion Extreterrestrials Eye Color Eyes Ezra Cohen-Watnick Face Recognition Face Shape Faces Facts Fake News fallout Family Studies Far West Farmers Farming Fascism Fat Head Fat Shaming Father Absence FBI Federal Reserve Female Deference Female Homosexuality Female Sexual Response Feminism Feminists Ferguson Shooting Fertility Fertility Fertility Rates Fethullah Gulen Fetish Feuds Fields Medals FIFA Fifty Shades Of Grey Film Finance Financial Bailout Financial Bubbles Financial Debt Financial Sector Financial Times Finland First Amendment First Law First World War FISA Fitness Flags Flight From White Fluctuating Asymmetry Flynn Effect Food Football For Profit Schools Foreign Service Fourth Of July Fracking Fragrances France Francesco Schettino Frank Salter Frankfurt School Frantz Fanon Franz Boas Fred Hiatt Fred Reed Freddie Gray Frederic Hof Free Speech Free Trade Free Will Freedom Of Navigation Freedom Of Speech French Canadians French National Front French Paradox Friendly & Conventional Front National Frost-harpending Selection Fulford Funny G G Spot Gaddafi Gallipoli Game Gardnerella Vaginalis Gary Taubes Gay Germ Gay Marriage Gays/Lesbians Gaza Gaza Flotilla Gcta Gender Gender Gender And Sexuality Gender Confusion Gender Equality Gender Identity Disorder Gender Reassignment Gene-Culture Coevolution Gene-environment Correlation General Intelligence General Social Survey General Theory Of The West Genes Genes: They Matter Bitches Genetic Diversity Genetic Divides Genetic Engineering Genetic Load Genetic Pacification Genetics Genetics Of Height Genocide Genomics Geography Geopolitics George Bush George Clooney George Patton George Romero George Soros George Tenet George W. Bush George Wallace Germ Theory German Catholics Germans Germany Get It Right Get Real Ghouta Gilgit Baltistan Gina Haspel Glenn Beck Glenn Greenwald Global Terrorism Index Global Warming Globalism Globalization God Delusion Goetsu Going Too Far Gold Gold Warriors Goldman Sachs Good Advice Google Gordon Gallup Goths Government Debt Government Incompetence Government Spending Government Surveillance Great Depression Great Leap Forward Great Recession Greater Appalachia Greece Greeks Greg Clark Greg Cochran Gregory B Christainsen Gregory Clark Gregory Cochran Gregory House GRF Grooming Group Intelligence Group Selection Grumpy Cat GSS Guangzhou Guantanamo Guardian Guilt Culture Gun Control Guns Gynephilia Gypsies H-1B H Bomb H.R. McMaster H1-B Visas Haim Saban Hair Color Hair Lengthening Haiti Hajnal Line Hamas Hamilton: An American Musical Hamilton's Rule Happiness Happy Turkey Day ... Unless You're The Turkey Harriet Tubman Harry Jaffa Harvard Harvey Weinstein Hasbara Hassidim Hate Crimes Hate Speech Hatemi Havelock Ellis Haymarket Affair Hbd Hbd Chick HBD Denial Hbd Fallout Hbd Readers Head Size Health And Medicine Health Care Healthcare Heart Disease Heart Health Heart Of Asia Conference Heartiste Heather Norton Height Helmuth Nyborg Hemoglobin Henri De Man Henry Harpending Henry Kissinger Herbert John Fleure Heredity Heritability Hexaco Hezbollah High Iq Fertility Hip Hop Hiroshima Hispanic Crime Hispanic Paradox Hispanics Historical Genetics Hitler HKND Hollywood Holocaust Homicide Homicide Rate Homo Altaiensis Homophobia Homosexuality Honesty-humility House Intelligence Committee House M.d. House Md House Of Cards Housing Huey Long Huey Newton Hugo Chavez Human Biodiversity Human Evolution Human Genetics Human Genomics Human Nature Human Rights Human Varieties Humor Hungary Hunter-Gatherers Hunting Hurricane Hurricane Harvey I.F. Stone I Kissed A Girl And I Liked It I Love Italians I.Q. Genomics Ian Deary Ibd Ibo Ice T Iceland I'd Like To Think It's Obvious I Know What I'm Talking About Ideology And Worldview Idiocracy Igbo Ignorance Ilana Mercer Illegal Immigration IMF immigrants Immigration Imperial Presidency Imperialism Imran Awan In The Electric Mist Inbreeding Income Independence Day India Indians Individualism Inequality Infection Theory Infidelity Intelligence Internet Internet Research Agency Interracial Marriage Inuit Ioannidis Ioannis Metaxas Iosif Lazaridis Iq Iq And Wealth Iran Nuclear Agreement Iran Nuclear Program Iran Sanctions Iranian Nuclear Program Iraq Iraq War Ireland Irish ISIS. Terrorism Islamic Jihad Islamophobia Isolationism Israel Defense Force Israeli Occupation Israeli Settlements Israeli Spying Italianthro Italy It's Determinism - Genetics Is Just A Part It's Not Nature And Nurture Ivanka Ivy League Iwo Eleru J. Edgar Hoover Jack Keane Jake Tapper JAM-GC Jamaica James Clapper James Comey James Fanell James Mattis James Wooley Jamie Foxx Jane Harman Jane Mayer Janet Yellen Japan Japanese Jared Diamond Jared Kushner Jared Taylor Jason Malloy JASTA Jayman Jr. Jayman's Wife Jeff Bezos Jennifer Rubin Jensen Jeremy Corbyn Jerrold Nadler Jerry Seinfeld Jesse Bering Jesuits Jewish History JFK Assassination Jill Stein Jim Crow Joe Cirincione Joe Lieberman John Allen John B. Watson John Boehner John Bolton John Brennan John Derbyshire John Durant John F. Kennedy John Hawks John Hoffecker John Kasich John Kerry John Ladue John McCain John McLaughlin John McWhorter John Mearsheimer John Tooby Joke Posts Jonathan Freedland Jonathan Pollard Joseph Lieberman Joseph McCarthy Judaism Judicial System Judith Harris Julian Assange Jute K.d. Lang Kagans Kanazawa Kashmir Katibat Al-Battar Al-Libi Katy Perry Kay Hymowitz Keith Ellison Ken Livingstone Kenneth Marcus Kennewick Man Kevin MacDonald Kevin McCarthy Kevin Mitchell Kevin Williamson KGL-9268 Khazars Kim Jong Un Kimberly Noble Kin Altruism Kin Selection Kink Kinship Kissing Kiwis Kkk Knesset Know-nothings Korea Korean War Kosovo Ku Klux Klan Kurds Kurt Campbell Labor Day Lactose Lady Gaga Language Larkana Conspiracy Larry Summers Larung Gar Las Vegas Massacre Latin America Latinos Latitude Latvia Law Law Of War Manual Laws Of Behavioral Genetics Lead Poisoning Lebanon Leda Cosmides Lee Kuan Yew Left Coast Left/Right Lenin Leo Strauss Lesbians LGBT Liberal Creationism Liberalism Liberals Libertarianism Libertarians Libya life-expectancy Life In Space Life Liberty And The Pursuit Of Happyness Lifestyle Light Skin Preference Lindsay Graham Lindsey Graham Literacy Litvinenko Lloyd Blankfein Locus Of Control Logan's Run Lombok Strait Long Ass Posts Longevity Look AHEAD Looting Lorde Love Love Dolls Lover Boys Low-carb Low-fat Low Wages LRSO Lutherans Lyndon Johnson M Factor M.g. MacArthur Awards Machiavellianism Madeleine Albright Mahmoud Abbas Maine Malacca Strait Malaysian Airlines MH17 Male Homosexuality Mamasapano Mangan Manor Manorialism Manosphere Manufacturing Mao-a Mao Zedong Maoism Maori Map Posts maps Marc Faber Marco Rubio Marijuana Marine Le Pen Mark Carney Mark Steyn Mark Warner Market Economy Marriage Martin Luther King Marwan Marwan Barghouti Marxism Mary White Ovington Masha Gessen Mass Shootings Massacre In Nice Mate Choice Mate Value Math Mathematics Maulana Bhashani Max Blumenthal Max Boot Max Brooks Mayans McCain/POW Mearsheimer-Walt Measurement Error Mega-Aggressions Mega-anlysis Megan Fox Megyn Kelly Melanin Memorial Day Mental Health Mental Illness Mental Traits Meritocracy Merkel Mesolithic Meta-analysis Meth Mexican-American War Mexico Michael Anton Michael Bloomberg Michael Flynn Michael Hudson Michael Jackson Michael Lewis Michael Morell Michael Pompeo Michael Weiss Michael Woodley Michele Bachmann Michelle Bachmann Michelle Obama Microaggressions Microcephalin Microsoft Middle Ages Mideastwire Migration Mike Huckabee Mike Pence Mike Pompeo Mike Signer Mikhail Khodorkovsky Militarized Police Military Military Pay Military Spending Milner Group Mindanao Minimum Wage Minnesota Transracial Adoption Study Minorities Minstrels Mirror Neurons Miscellaneous Misdreavus Missile Defense Mitt Romney Mixed-Race Modern Humans Mohammed Bin Salman Moldova Monogamy Moral Absolutism Moral Universalism Morality Mormons Moro Mortality Mossad Mountains Movies Moxie Mrs. Jayman MTDNA Muammar Gaddafi Multiculturalism Multiregional Model Music Muslim Muslim Ban Muslims Mutual Assured Destruction My Lai My Old Kentucky Home Myanmar Mysticism Nagasaki Nancy Segal Narendra Modi Nascar National Debt National Differences National Review National Security State National Security Strategy National Wealth Nationalism Native Americans NATO Natural Selection Nature Vs. Nurture Navy Yard Shooting Naz Shah Nazi Nazis Nazism Nbc News Nbc Nightly News Neanderthals NED Neo-Nazis Neoconservatism Neoconservatives Neoliberalism Neolithic Netherlands Neuropolitics Neuroticism Never Forget The Genetic Confound New Addition New Atheists New Cold War New England Patriots New France New French New Netherland New Qing History New Rules New Silk Road New World Order New York City New York Times Newfoundland Newt Gingrich NFL Nicaragua Canal Nicholas Sarkozy Nicholas Wade Nigeria Nightly News Nikki Haley No Free Will Nobel Prize Nobel Prized Nobosuke Kishi Nordics North Africa North Korea Northern Ireland Northwest Europe Norway NSA NSA Surveillance Nuclear Proliferation Nuclear War Nuclear Weapons Null Result Nurture Nurture Assumption Nutrition Nuts NYPD O Mio Babbino Caro Obama Obamacare Obesity Obscured American Occam's Razor Occupy Occupy Wall Street Oceania Oil Oil Industry Old Folks At Home Olfaction Oliver Stone Olympics Omega Males Ominous Signs Once You Go Black Open To Experience Openness To Experience Operational Sex Ratio Opiates Opioids Orban Organ Transplants Orlando Shooting Orthodoxy Osama Bin Laden Ottoman Empire Our Political Nature Out Of Africa Model Outbreeding Oxtr Oxytocin Paekchong Pakistan Pakistani Palatability Paleoamerindians Paleocons Paleolibertarianism Palestine Palestinians Pamela Geller Panama Canal Panama Papers Parasite Parasite Burden Parasite Manipulation Parent-child Interactions Parenting Parenting Parenting Behavioral Genetics Paris Attacks Paris Spring Parsi Paternal Investment Pathogens Patriot Act Patriotism Paul Ewald Paul Krugman Paul Lepage Paul Manafort Paul Ryan Paul Singer Paul Wolfowitz Pavel Grudinin Peace Index Peak Jobs Pearl Harbor Pedophilia Peers Peggy Seagrave Pennsylvania Pentagon Perception Management Personality Peru Peter Frost Peter Thiel Peter Turchin Phil Onderdonk Phil Rushton Philip Breedlove Philippines Physical Anthropology Pierre Van Den Berghe Pieter Van Ostaeyen Piigs Pioneer Hypothesis Pioneers PISA Pizzagate Planets Planned Parenthood Pledge Of Allegiance Pleiotropy Pol Pot Poland Police State Police Training Politics Poll Results Polls Polygenic Score Polygyny Pope Francis Population Growth Population Replacement Populism Pornography Portugal Post 199 Post 201 Post 99 Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc Post-Nationalism Pot Poverty PRC Prenatal Hormones Prescription Drugs Press Censorship Pretty Graphs Prince Bandar Priti Patel Privatization Progressives Project Plowshares Propaganda Prostitution Protestantism Proud To Be Black Psychology Psychometrics Psychopaths Psychopathy Pubertal Timing Public Schools Puerto Rico Punishment Puritans Putin Pwc Qatar Quakers Quantitative Genetics Quebec Quebecois Race Race And Crime Race And Genomics Race And Iq Race And Religion Race/Crime Race Denialism Race Riots Rachel Dolezal Rachel Maddow Racial Intelligence Racial Reality Racism Radical Islam Ralph And Coop Ralph Nader Rand Paul Randy Fine Rap Music Raqqa Rating People Rationality Raul Pedrozo Razib Khan Reaction Time Reading Real Estate Real Women Really Stop The Armchair Psychoanalysis Recep Tayyip Erdogan Reciprocal Altruism Reconstruction Red Hair Red State Blue State Red States Blue States Refugee Crisis Regional Differences Regional Populations Regression To The Mean Religion Religion Religion And Philosophy Rena Wing Renewable Energy Rentier Reprint Reproductive Strategy Republican Jesus Republican Party Responsibility Reuel Gerecht Reverend Moon Revolution Of 1905 Revolutions Rex Tillerson Richard Dawkins Richard Dyer Richard Lewontin Richard Lynn Richard Nixon Richard Pryor Richard Pryor Live On The Sunset Strip Richard Russell Rick Perry Rickets Rikishi Robert Ford Robert Kraft Robert Lindsay Robert McNamara Robert Mueller Robert Mugabe Robert Plomin Robert Putnam Robert Reich Robert Spencer Robocop Robots Roe Vs. Wade Roger Ailes Rohingya Roman Empire Rome Ron Paul Ron Unz Ronald Reagan Rooshv Rosemary Hopcroft Ross Douthat Ross Perot Rotherham Roy Moore RT International Rupert Murdoch Rural Liberals Rushton Russell Kirk Russia-Georgia War Russiagate Russian Elections 2018 Russian Hack Russian History Russian Military Russian Orthodox Church Ruth Benedict Saakashvili Sam Harris Same Sex Attraction Same-sex Marriage Same-sex Parents Samoans Samuel George Morton San Bernadino Massacre Sandra Beleza Sandusky Sandy Hook Sarah Palin Sarin Gas Satoshi Kanazawa saudi Saudi Arabia Saying What You Have To Say Scandinavia Scandinavians Scarborough Shoal Schizophrenia Science: It Works Bitches Scientism Scotch-irish Scotland Scots Irish Scott Ritter Scrabble Secession Seduced By Food Semai Senate Separating The Truth From The Nonsense Serbia Serenity Sergei Magnitsky Sergei Skripal Sex Sex Ratio Sex Ratio At Birth Sex Recognition Sex Tape Sex Work Sexism Sexual Antagonistic Selection Sexual Dimorphism Sexual Division Of Labor Sexual Fluidity Sexual Identity Sexual Maturation Sexual Orientation Sexual Selection Sexually Transmitted Diseases Seymour Hersh Shai Masot Shame Culture Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Shanghai Stock Exchange Shared Environment Shekhovstov Sheldon Adelson Shias And Sunnis Shimon Arad Shimon Peres Shinzo Abe Shmuley Boteach Shorts And Funnies Shoshana Bryen Shurat HaDin Shyness Siamak Namazi Sibel Edmonds Siberia Silicon Valley Simon Baron Cohen Singapore Single Men Single Motherhood Single Mothers Single Women Sisyphean Six Day War SJWs Skin Bleaching Skin Color Skin Tone Slate Slave Trade Slavery Slavoj Zizek Slavs SLC24A5 Sleep Slobodan Milosevic Smart Fraction Smell Smoking Snow Snyderman Social Constructs Social Justice Warriors Socialism Sociopathy Sociosexuality Solar Energy Solutions Somalia Sometimes You Don't Like The Answer South Africa South Asia South China Sea South Korea South Sudan Southern Italians Southern Poverty Law Center Soviet Union Space Space Space Program Space Race Spain Spanish Paradox Speech SPLC Sports Sputnik News Squid Ink Srebrenica Stabby Somali Staffan Stalinism Stanislas Dehaene Star Trek State Department State Formation States Rights Statins Steny Hoyer Stephan Guyenet Stephen Cohen Stephen Colbert Stephen Hadley Stephen Jay Gould Sterling Seagrave Steve Bannon Steve Sailer Steven Mnuchin Steven Pinker Still Not Free Buddy Stolen Generations Strategic Affairs Ministry Stroke Belt Student Loans Stuxnet SU-57 Sub-replacement Fertility Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africans Subprime Mortgage Crisis Subsistence Living Suffrage Sugar Suicide Summing It All Up Supernatural Support Me Support The Jayman Supreme Court Supression Surveillance Susan Glasser Susan Rice Sweden Swiss Switzerland Syed Farook Syrian Refugees Syriza Ta-Nehisi Coates Taiwan Tale Of Two Maps Taliban Tamerlan Tsarnaev TAS2R16 Tashfeen Malik Taste Tastiness Tatars Tatu Vanhanen Tawang Tax Cuts Tax Evasion Taxes Tea Party Team Performance Technology Ted Cruz Tell Me About You Tell The Truth Terman Terman's Termites Terroris Terrorists Tesla Testosterone Thailand The 10000 Year Explosion The Bible The Breeder's Equation The Confederacy The Dark Knight The Dark Triad The Death Penalty The Deep South The Devil Is In The Details The Dustbowl The Economist The Far West The Future The Great Plains The Great Wall The Left The Left Coast The New York Times The Pursuit Of Happyness The Rock The Saker The Son Also Rises The South The Walking Dead The Washington Post The Wide Environment The World Theodore Roosevelt Theresa May Things Going Sour Third World Thomas Aquinas Thomas Friedman Thomas Perez Thomas Sowell Thomas Talhelm Thorstein Veblen Thurgood Marshall Tibet Tidewater Tiger Mom Time Preference Timmons Title IX Tobin Tax Tom Cotton Tom Naughton Tone It Down Guys Seriously Tony Blair Torture Toxoplasma Gondii TPP Traffic Traffic Fatalities Tragedy Trans-Species Polymorphism Transgender Transgenderism Transsexuals Treasury Tropical Humans Trump Trust TTIP Tuition Tulsi Gabbard Turkheimer TWA 800 Twin Study Twins Twins Raised Apart Twintuition Twitter Two Party System UKIP Ukrainian Crisis UN Security Council Unemployment Unions United Kingdom United Nations United States Universalism University Admissions Upper Paleolithic Urban Riots Ursula Gauthier Uruguay US Blacks USS Liberty Utopian Uttar Pradesh UV Uyghurs Vaginal Yeast Valerie Plame Vassopressin Vdare Veep Venezuela Veterans Administration Victor Canfield Victor Davis Hanson Victoria Nuland Victorian England Victorianism Video Games Vietnam Vietnam War Vietnamese Vikings Violence Vioxx Virginia Visa Waivers Visual Word Form Area Vitamin D Voronezh Vote Fraud Vouchers Vwfa W.E.I.R.D. W.E.I.R.D.O. Wahhabis Wall Street Walter Bodmer Wang Jing War On Christmas War On Terror Washington Post WasPage Watergate Watsoning We Are What We Are We Don't Know All The Environmental Causes Weight Loss WEIRDO Welfare Western Europe Western European Marriage Pattern Western Media Western Religion Westerns What Can You Do What's The Cause Where They're At Where's The Fallout White America White Americans White Conservative Males White Death White Helmets White Nationalist Nuttiness White Nationalists White Privilege White Slavery White Supremacy White Wife Why We Believe Hbd Wikileaks Wild Life Wilhelm Furtwangler William Browder William Buckley William D. Hamilton William Graham Sumner William McGougall WINEP Winston Churchill Women In The Workplace Woodley Effect Woodrow Wilson WORDSUM Workers Working Class Working Memory World Values Survey World War I World War Z Writing WTO X Little Miss JayLady Xhosa Xi Jinping Xinjiang Yankeedom Yankees Yazidis Yemen Yes I Am A Brother Yes I Am Liberal - But That Kind Of Liberal Yochi Dreazen You Can't Handle The Truth You Don't Know Shit Youtube Ban Yugoslavia Zbigniew Brzezinski Zhang Yimou Zika Zika Virus Zimbabwe Zionism Zombies Zones Of Thought Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
Nothing found
All Commenters • My
Comments
• Followed
Commenters
All Comments / On "Arctic resources"
 All Comments / On "Arctic resources"
    Russia has embarked on a massive and much publicized effort to secure the 6,200 km of her northern border and to be ready to defend her interests in the Arctic shelf up to 500 km from her border. This means that 3,100,000 square kilometers of extremely difficult and inhospitable terrain will have to be secured....
  • @Ivan
    I have to disagree with you on the foundations. If you try to struggle through Newton's Principia, which even the late Prof Chandrasekhar took about ten years to go through when writing his commentary on it, there is no doubt that Newton was a man of almost unprecedented genius. He did this along with his work on alchemy and his commentaries on the Apocalypse. That he was something of a nasty is well known: Papin has to take a ticket, and line up behind Hooke, Leibniz and Flamsteed.

    Well, you would have noticed, perhaps, that recent histories about the problem stress the ugly chauvinism that underwrites the “controversy” about the precedence either of who the inventor of calculus was, or of the steam engine.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    As a matter of fact it is still Leibniz' philosophical and mathematical approach which laid the foundations of "modern physics".
    BTW, Denis Papin was the real inventor of the steam engine. It was the same vain and vindictive Newton who sabotaged his work, presumably stealing his ideas and promoting the obscure Newcomen. It was actually a sabotage of Leibniz's persistent international efforts on behalf of what he called the "Grand Design"-- an alliance of sovereign nations for economic development through scientific and technological progress.

    I have to disagree with you on the foundations. If you try to struggle through Newton’s Principia, which even the late Prof Chandrasekhar took about ten years to go through when writing his commentary on it, there is no doubt that Newton was a man of almost unprecedented genius. He did this along with his work on alchemy and his commentaries on the Apocalypse. That he was something of a nasty is well known: Papin has to take a ticket, and line up behind Hooke, Leibniz and Flamsteed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seraphim
    Well, you would have noticed, perhaps, that recent histories about the problem stress the ugly chauvinism that underwrites the "controversy" about the precedence either of who the inventor of calculus was, or of the steam engine.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Ivan
    Leibniz and Newton were both co-inventors. The ideas were in the air, they had worthy predecessors and contemporaries; Pascal, Fermat, Barrow, Hooke, Huygens and many more. Leibniz gets full credit for his inventions of the calculus symbols we use. Newton on the other hand laid the foundations of modern physics. The reason why the calculus does not make a big showing in the Principia was that Newton was a vain man of the old school, whose standard of proof is more geometrico, nothing else would satisfy. Both were geniuses of the highest order. Though of course the wonderful Leibniz had the more attractive personality.

    As a matter of fact it is still Leibniz’ philosophical and mathematical approach which laid the foundations of “modern physics”.
    BTW, Denis Papin was the real inventor of the steam engine. It was the same vain and vindictive Newton who sabotaged his work, presumably stealing his ideas and promoting the obscure Newcomen. It was actually a sabotage of Leibniz’s persistent international efforts on behalf of what he called the “Grand Design”– an alliance of sovereign nations for economic development through scientific and technological progress.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivan
    I have to disagree with you on the foundations. If you try to struggle through Newton's Principia, which even the late Prof Chandrasekhar took about ten years to go through when writing his commentary on it, there is no doubt that Newton was a man of almost unprecedented genius. He did this along with his work on alchemy and his commentaries on the Apocalypse. That he was something of a nasty is well known: Papin has to take a ticket, and line up behind Hooke, Leibniz and Flamsteed.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Ivan
    Leibniz and Newton were both co-inventors. The ideas were in the air, they had worthy predecessors and contemporaries; Pascal, Fermat, Barrow, Hooke, Huygens and many more. Leibniz gets full credit for his inventions of the calculus symbols we use. Newton on the other hand laid the foundations of modern physics. The reason why the calculus does not make a big showing in the Principia was that Newton was a vain man of the old school, whose standard of proof is more geometrico, nothing else would satisfy. Both were geniuses of the highest order. Though of course the wonderful Leibniz had the more attractive personality.

    An excellent summary.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    LaRouche might be whatever. But, again, the activity of Leibniz is known from other sources and is not diminished in any way by either the appreciation of LaRouche for him, or his loathing by the British Establishment (most likely HE is the real inventor of calculus).

    Leibniz and Newton were both co-inventors. The ideas were in the air, they had worthy predecessors and contemporaries; Pascal, Fermat, Barrow, Hooke, Huygens and many more. Leibniz gets full credit for his inventions of the calculus symbols we use. Newton on the other hand laid the foundations of modern physics. The reason why the calculus does not make a big showing in the Principia was that Newton was a vain man of the old school, whose standard of proof is more geometrico, nothing else would satisfy. Both were geniuses of the highest order. Though of course the wonderful Leibniz had the more attractive personality.

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    An excellent summary.
    , @Seraphim
    As a matter of fact it is still Leibniz' philosophical and mathematical approach which laid the foundations of "modern physics".
    BTW, Denis Papin was the real inventor of the steam engine. It was the same vain and vindictive Newton who sabotaged his work, presumably stealing his ideas and promoting the obscure Newcomen. It was actually a sabotage of Leibniz's persistent international efforts on behalf of what he called the "Grand Design"-- an alliance of sovereign nations for economic development through scientific and technological progress.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Ivan
    LaRouche is one hell of a conspiracy nut, but entertaining nevertheless.

    LaRouche might be whatever. But, again, the activity of Leibniz is known from other sources and is not diminished in any way by either the appreciation of LaRouche for him, or his loathing by the British Establishment (most likely HE is the real inventor of calculus).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivan
    Leibniz and Newton were both co-inventors. The ideas were in the air, they had worthy predecessors and contemporaries; Pascal, Fermat, Barrow, Hooke, Huygens and many more. Leibniz gets full credit for his inventions of the calculus symbols we use. Newton on the other hand laid the foundations of modern physics. The reason why the calculus does not make a big showing in the Principia was that Newton was a vain man of the old school, whose standard of proof is more geometrico, nothing else would satisfy. Both were geniuses of the highest order. Though of course the wonderful Leibniz had the more attractive personality.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable:

    “The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us."

    It was the primordial interest of the British Empire also, as it was clearly stated by Sir Halford Mackinder his famous 1904 essay, “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia (read Mongolia and China today-w.e.) are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic 'commerce'.” I.e. inaccessible to the British Royal Navy and the US Navy control of the oceans. The British Empire and USA conspired to sabotage this convergence fomenting Wars and Revolutions in that space. There is no coincidence that the study of Mackinder appeared just a few month before the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War.

    LaRouche is one hell of a conspiracy nut, but entertaining nevertheless.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seraphim
    LaRouche might be whatever. But, again, the activity of Leibniz is known from other sources and is not diminished in any way by either the appreciation of LaRouche for him, or his loathing by the British Establishment (most likely HE is the real inventor of calculus).
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anonymous
    Canada is America's bitch.

    Canada is America’s bitch.

    Other way around. Pierre Trudeau spawned “multiculturalism”, and it’s taken America like kudzu.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • A freely available book:
    HYBRID WARS: THE INDIRECT ADAPTIVE APPROACH TO REGIME CHANGE, by ANDREW KORYBKO

    http://orientalreview.org/press-release/

    http://orientalreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AK-Hybrid-Wars-updated.pdf

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @annamaria
    Canada is an example of a swift and disastrous transformation from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. Case in study is Canada's ardent support for Ukrainian neo-nazis. Unlike the quiet demeanor of the former collaborators from the Ukrainian Waffen SS division, which live in Europe (the Galicia division was heavily involved into bloody suppression of the partisan movement agains fascists in East European countries), the Canadian descendants of the collaborators are quite loud and influential.
    Mr. Harper of Canada has revealed a soft spot for Ukrainian neo-nazis; the decisions to sent Canadian soldiers to train Ukrainian neo-nazis were "coming directly from the Prime Minister’s Office." http://newcoldwar.org/controversy-in-canada-after-u-s-blocks-training-of-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/

    ” from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. ”

    Too true…. but not unlike so many others… Australia comes to mind.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • […] Par The Saker Original – Le 14 août 2015 – Source unz.com […]

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Avery
    You are correct about the primordial interest of the British.

    However, regarding George Friedman, you are wrong and Smoothie is right.
    Friedman is a Neocon.
    Whatever he writes about Russia has an ulterior motive.
    He is an extremely intelligent man, so he is not obvious like the other (crude) Neocons.
    His shtick is to peddle Neocon disinformation and propaganda under the guise of alleged “intelligence”, for which he charges handsomely.
    Smart man: getting paid for selling pure BS.

    The quote you provided clearly shows his real agenda:
    “…the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.”

    Threaten ?
    Us ? (who is “us” btw).

    When was the last time Russia invaded a foreign country ?
    Even when Russian Empire expanded, it expanded on land in their own neighborhood, and the expansion was largely due to being invaded or attacked, and the expansion was a response to those.
    Anglo-Americans, on the other hand, consider the world their back yard and consider it their God given right – Manifest Destiny - to interfere and invade anywhere in the world.


    What he means by "threaten" is that Germany+Russia will be too formidable for Neocon Anglo-Americans to cow and lord over - economically (Germany) and militarily (Russia).
    It will complicate their plans of world domination.

    Well, of course Friedman is not a reliable person. But in the particular case for which I used his utterances, he was just expressing the view points of the Anglosphere policy makers. Exactly as you say: “The quote you provided clearly shows his real agenda:
    “…the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.” I quoted him rather tongue in cheek, as a response to doubts about the reliability of Larouche (the informations about the vision of Leibniz are absolutely accurate).

    Friedmans’s agenda has been expressed by Mackinder more elaborately earlier. The threat was either an alliance of Germany with Russia, a conquest by Germany of Russia, a conquest of Russia by a Sino-Japanese Empire. His “nightmare” was that if Germany or Russia were allowed to control East Europe then this could lead to the domination of the Eurasian land mass by one of these two powers as a prelude to mastery of the world. The combination of the technical acumen of the Germans with the immense Russian resources, their access to the open seas, was a thing which “no Western country could contemplate with equanimity”, as the British historian put it in 1938 in his book “Brest-Litovsk the Forgotten Peace, March 1918″. It was neither in 1904, nor in 1939 (The Soviet-German Pact), nor in 1941, nor after 1945 to the present. It must be stressed that the domination of Ukraine is essential to any variant. It is what Brzezinski clamors over all roofs.
    Where indeed you, and most people who exercise their critical faculties, are right is that Russia has no intention whatsoever to “invade” the West. It never had. The West’ problem is in fact that Russia turns her back to it and put her resources beyond its reach. The smug satisfaction that Russia is “increasingly isolated” is actually a cry of frustration: the grapes are too sour!

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable:

    “The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us."

    It was the primordial interest of the British Empire also, as it was clearly stated by Sir Halford Mackinder his famous 1904 essay, “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia (read Mongolia and China today-w.e.) are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic 'commerce'.” I.e. inaccessible to the British Royal Navy and the US Navy control of the oceans. The British Empire and USA conspired to sabotage this convergence fomenting Wars and Revolutions in that space. There is no coincidence that the study of Mackinder appeared just a few month before the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War.

    You are correct about the primordial interest of the British.

    However, regarding George Friedman, you are wrong and Smoothie is right.
    Friedman is a Neocon.
    Whatever he writes about Russia has an ulterior motive.
    He is an extremely intelligent man, so he is not obvious like the other (crude) Neocons.
    His shtick is to peddle Neocon disinformation and propaganda under the guise of alleged “intelligence”, for which he charges handsomely.
    Smart man: getting paid for selling pure BS.

    The quote you provided clearly shows his real agenda:
    “…the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.”

    Threaten ?
    Us ? (who is “us” btw).

    When was the last time Russia invaded a foreign country ?
    Even when Russian Empire expanded, it expanded on land in their own neighborhood, and the expansion was largely due to being invaded or attacked, and the expansion was a response to those.
    Anglo-Americans, on the other hand, consider the world their back yard and consider it their God given right – Manifest Destiny – to interfere and invade anywhere in the world.

    What he means by “threaten” is that Germany+Russia will be too formidable for Neocon Anglo-Americans to cow and lord over – economically (Germany) and militarily (Russia).
    It will complicate their plans of world domination.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seraphim
    Well, of course Friedman is not a reliable person. But in the particular case for which I used his utterances, he was just expressing the view points of the Anglosphere policy makers. Exactly as you say: "The quote you provided clearly shows his real agenda:
    “…the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.” I quoted him rather tongue in cheek, as a response to doubts about the reliability of Larouche (the informations about the vision of Leibniz are absolutely accurate).

    Friedmans's agenda has been expressed by Mackinder more elaborately earlier. The threat was either an alliance of Germany with Russia, a conquest by Germany of Russia, a conquest of Russia by a Sino-Japanese Empire. His "nightmare" was that if Germany or Russia were allowed to control East Europe then this could lead to the domination of the Eurasian land mass by one of these two powers as a prelude to mastery of the world. The combination of the technical acumen of the Germans with the immense Russian resources, their access to the open seas, was a thing which "no Western country could contemplate with equanimity", as the British historian put it in 1938 in his book "Brest-Litovsk the Forgotten Peace, March 1918". It was neither in 1904, nor in 1939 (The Soviet-German Pact), nor in 1941, nor after 1945 to the present. It must be stressed that the domination of Ukraine is essential to any variant. It is what Brzezinski clamors over all roofs.
    Where indeed you, and most people who exercise their critical faculties, are right is that Russia has no intention whatsoever to "invade" the West. It never had. The West' problem is in fact that Russia turns her back to it and put her resources beyond its reach. The smug satisfaction that Russia is "increasingly isolated" is actually a cry of frustration: the grapes are too sour!

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website
    @Seraphim
    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable:

    “The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us."

    It was the primordial interest of the British Empire also, as it was clearly stated by Sir Halford Mackinder his famous 1904 essay, “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia (read Mongolia and China today-w.e.) are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic 'commerce'.” I.e. inaccessible to the British Royal Navy and the US Navy control of the oceans. The British Empire and USA conspired to sabotage this convergence fomenting Wars and Revolutions in that space. There is no coincidence that the study of Mackinder appeared just a few month before the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War.

    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable

    No, they are not. It is a good chunk of BS which STRATFOR sells for profit to all kinds of “executives”. Friedman, like those proverbial broken clocks, gets it right twice a day but his opinions on Russia are worthless. Well, pretty much on anything they are worthless. Like his “prediction” of 2008 meltdown as just another correction. Sure, and I am a martian.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    @Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin.

    This "delusional" geopolitics is a few hundreds years older than VP. It was in the making since the very inception of Russia. It gained unstoppable momentum with the conquest of Siberia by Ivan the Terrible. It remained the main thrust of Russian policies ever after. It is worth reminding that the best European thinkers had the vision of Eurasia and of the special role of Russia as the bridge between the cultures of Europe and China and worked for translating in practical terms this vision.

    "It was Leibniz’s vision that Europe, Russia, and China would form an alliance, based on the infrastructural exploration of these countries, in particular Russia’s Siberia...
    Leibniz placed special importance on the exploration of the physical geography of the Eurasian lands; he spoke very often of the necessity of magnetic, i.e., cartographic surveying of Russia and China, especially Siberia. Only then could one think constructively about the promotion of agriculture, mining, and handicrafts, of the construction of canals, the draining of swampy areas, and, above all, of an opening up of Eurasia through industrial-transport technologies—wherein he understood the construction of roads from Russia to China and Persia, the dredging of streams and canals, and so forth. Only through the mediation of Russia, would it be possible in the future to tie Europe with China, which would bring both sides, not only political-economic but also spiritual-cultural, mutual benefits. As he wrote in the instruction drafting the Berlin Society of Science: “By this means, Chinese products and news from China would come to Europe, and on the other hand the Christian faith would spread to China and indeed spread through Moscow as the means of communication....
    Leibniz so highly esteemed the strategic importance of his Eurasian project, that in the general instruction of the Berlin Society of Science (1700) and other academy drafts, he cited the idea of the scientific mission in China and Russia as the essential aim of the academy’s work. Especially propitious for Leibniz, was the fact that he kept up a close personal relationship to the Russian Czar Peter I (the Great), and was at his disposal as adviser on questions of infrastructure....
    The idea of Europe, China, and Russia working together, led Leibniz, in the disastrous period after the Thirty Years War, to create the foundation of modern Europe. He saw the key to this in the infrastructural opening and development of Eurasia—above all of Russia and China, based upon a scientific renaissance".
    G.W. Leibniz and the Ecumenical Alliance of All Eurasia, by Elisabeth [email protected]://www.schillerinstitute.org/fid_91-96/963_Leibniz_Alliance.html

    Solzhenitsyn also had the vision where the future of Russia lays:
    "Fortunately we have a home, a spacious and unsullied home preserved for us by history-the Russian Northeast. Let us give up trying to restore order overseas, keep our grabbing imperial hands off neighbors who want to live their own lives in freedom - and turn our national and political zeal toward the untamed expanses of the Northeast, whose emptiness is becoming intolerable to our neighbors now that life on earth is so tight packed....our ocean is the Arctic, not the Indian Ocean!" It is a frontier that must be protected. From the greedy neighbors from across the ocean.

    Thank you for this gem of historical records.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anonymous
    The Schiller Institute is a LaRouche organization. I'm not sure if it's a reliable source.

    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable:

    “The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.”

    It was the primordial interest of the British Empire also, as it was clearly stated by Sir Halford Mackinder his famous 1904 essay, “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia (read Mongolia and China today-w.e.) are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic ‘commerce’.” I.e. inaccessible to the British Royal Navy and the US Navy control of the oceans. The British Empire and USA conspired to sabotage this convergence fomenting Wars and Revolutions in that space. There is no coincidence that the study of Mackinder appeared just a few month before the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable
     
    No, they are not. It is a good chunk of BS which STRATFOR sells for profit to all kinds of "executives". Friedman, like those proverbial broken clocks, gets it right twice a day but his opinions on Russia are worthless. Well, pretty much on anything they are worthless. Like his "prediction" of 2008 meltdown as just another correction. Sure, and I am a martian.
    , @Avery
    You are correct about the primordial interest of the British.

    However, regarding George Friedman, you are wrong and Smoothie is right.
    Friedman is a Neocon.
    Whatever he writes about Russia has an ulterior motive.
    He is an extremely intelligent man, so he is not obvious like the other (crude) Neocons.
    His shtick is to peddle Neocon disinformation and propaganda under the guise of alleged “intelligence”, for which he charges handsomely.
    Smart man: getting paid for selling pure BS.

    The quote you provided clearly shows his real agenda:
    “…the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us.”

    Threaten ?
    Us ? (who is “us” btw).

    When was the last time Russia invaded a foreign country ?
    Even when Russian Empire expanded, it expanded on land in their own neighborhood, and the expansion was largely due to being invaded or attacked, and the expansion was a response to those.
    Anglo-Americans, on the other hand, consider the world their back yard and consider it their God given right – Manifest Destiny - to interfere and invade anywhere in the world.


    What he means by "threaten" is that Germany+Russia will be too formidable for Neocon Anglo-Americans to cow and lord over - economically (Germany) and militarily (Russia).
    It will complicate their plans of world domination.
    , @Ivan
    LaRouche is one hell of a conspiracy nut, but entertaining nevertheless.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Kiza
    A standard, worn-out excuse of the Canadians is - it is all due to the big and nasty Uncle down-south. But this is shallow and does not carry water/ice any more. The Canadians have been bitten by a mad/crazy imperialist bug and they are sick/ill. They cannot wage a war against Russia in the Arctic, but they can certainly do it in Ukraine. Therefore, do not expect Canada, the US Mini-Me, to ever pull out of Ukraine, not even under a non-Harper government.

    Canada is America’s bitch.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar


    Canada is America’s bitch.

     

    Other way around. Pierre Trudeau spawned "multiculturalism", and it's taken America like kudzu.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Seraphim
    @Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin.

    This "delusional" geopolitics is a few hundreds years older than VP. It was in the making since the very inception of Russia. It gained unstoppable momentum with the conquest of Siberia by Ivan the Terrible. It remained the main thrust of Russian policies ever after. It is worth reminding that the best European thinkers had the vision of Eurasia and of the special role of Russia as the bridge between the cultures of Europe and China and worked for translating in practical terms this vision.

    "It was Leibniz’s vision that Europe, Russia, and China would form an alliance, based on the infrastructural exploration of these countries, in particular Russia’s Siberia...
    Leibniz placed special importance on the exploration of the physical geography of the Eurasian lands; he spoke very often of the necessity of magnetic, i.e., cartographic surveying of Russia and China, especially Siberia. Only then could one think constructively about the promotion of agriculture, mining, and handicrafts, of the construction of canals, the draining of swampy areas, and, above all, of an opening up of Eurasia through industrial-transport technologies—wherein he understood the construction of roads from Russia to China and Persia, the dredging of streams and canals, and so forth. Only through the mediation of Russia, would it be possible in the future to tie Europe with China, which would bring both sides, not only political-economic but also spiritual-cultural, mutual benefits. As he wrote in the instruction drafting the Berlin Society of Science: “By this means, Chinese products and news from China would come to Europe, and on the other hand the Christian faith would spread to China and indeed spread through Moscow as the means of communication....
    Leibniz so highly esteemed the strategic importance of his Eurasian project, that in the general instruction of the Berlin Society of Science (1700) and other academy drafts, he cited the idea of the scientific mission in China and Russia as the essential aim of the academy’s work. Especially propitious for Leibniz, was the fact that he kept up a close personal relationship to the Russian Czar Peter I (the Great), and was at his disposal as adviser on questions of infrastructure....
    The idea of Europe, China, and Russia working together, led Leibniz, in the disastrous period after the Thirty Years War, to create the foundation of modern Europe. He saw the key to this in the infrastructural opening and development of Eurasia—above all of Russia and China, based upon a scientific renaissance".
    G.W. Leibniz and the Ecumenical Alliance of All Eurasia, by Elisabeth [email protected]://www.schillerinstitute.org/fid_91-96/963_Leibniz_Alliance.html

    Solzhenitsyn also had the vision where the future of Russia lays:
    "Fortunately we have a home, a spacious and unsullied home preserved for us by history-the Russian Northeast. Let us give up trying to restore order overseas, keep our grabbing imperial hands off neighbors who want to live their own lives in freedom - and turn our national and political zeal toward the untamed expanses of the Northeast, whose emptiness is becoming intolerable to our neighbors now that life on earth is so tight packed....our ocean is the Arctic, not the Indian Ocean!" It is a frontier that must be protected. From the greedy neighbors from across the ocean.

    The Schiller Institute is a LaRouche organization. I’m not sure if it’s a reliable source.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seraphim
    Maybe the opinions of George Friedman, the father of STRATFOR, are more reliable:

    “The primordial interest of the United States, over which for centuries we have fought wars–the First, the Second and Cold Wars–has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united there, they’re the only force that could threaten us."

    It was the primordial interest of the British Empire also, as it was clearly stated by Sir Halford Mackinder his famous 1904 essay, “True that the Trans-Siberian Railway is still a single and precarious line of communication, but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with Railways. The spaces within the Russian Empire and Mongolia (read Mongolia and China today-w.e.) are so vast, and their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel and metals so incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world, more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic 'commerce'.” I.e. inaccessible to the British Royal Navy and the US Navy control of the oceans. The British Empire and USA conspired to sabotage this convergence fomenting Wars and Revolutions in that space. There is no coincidence that the study of Mackinder appeared just a few month before the beginning of the Russo-Japanese War.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @annamaria
    Canada is an example of a swift and disastrous transformation from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. Case in study is Canada's ardent support for Ukrainian neo-nazis. Unlike the quiet demeanor of the former collaborators from the Ukrainian Waffen SS division, which live in Europe (the Galicia division was heavily involved into bloody suppression of the partisan movement agains fascists in East European countries), the Canadian descendants of the collaborators are quite loud and influential.
    Mr. Harper of Canada has revealed a soft spot for Ukrainian neo-nazis; the decisions to sent Canadian soldiers to train Ukrainian neo-nazis were "coming directly from the Prime Minister’s Office." http://newcoldwar.org/controversy-in-canada-after-u-s-blocks-training-of-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/

    A standard, worn-out excuse of the Canadians is – it is all due to the big and nasty Uncle down-south. But this is shallow and does not carry water/ice any more. The Canadians have been bitten by a mad/crazy imperialist bug and they are sick/ill. They cannot wage a war against Russia in the Arctic, but they can certainly do it in Ukraine. Therefore, do not expect Canada, the US Mini-Me, to ever pull out of Ukraine, not even under a non-Harper government.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Canada is America's bitch.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin.

    This “delusional” geopolitics is a few hundreds years older than VP. It was in the making since the very inception of Russia. It gained unstoppable momentum with the conquest of Siberia by Ivan the Terrible. It remained the main thrust of Russian policies ever after. It is worth reminding that the best European thinkers had the vision of Eurasia and of the special role of Russia as the bridge between the cultures of Europe and China and worked for translating in practical terms this vision.

    “It was Leibniz’s vision that Europe, Russia, and China would form an alliance, based on the infrastructural exploration of these countries, in particular Russia’s Siberia…
    Leibniz placed special importance on the exploration of the physical geography of the Eurasian lands; he spoke very often of the necessity of magnetic, i.e., cartographic surveying of Russia and China, especially Siberia. Only then could one think constructively about the promotion of agriculture, mining, and handicrafts, of the construction of canals, the draining of swampy areas, and, above all, of an opening up of Eurasia through industrial-transport technologies—wherein he understood the construction of roads from Russia to China and Persia, the dredging of streams and canals, and so forth. Only through the mediation of Russia, would it be possible in the future to tie Europe with China, which would bring both sides, not only political-economic but also spiritual-cultural, mutual benefits. As he wrote in the instruction drafting the Berlin Society of Science: “By this means, Chinese products and news from China would come to Europe, and on the other hand the Christian faith would spread to China and indeed spread through Moscow as the means of communication….
    Leibniz so highly esteemed the strategic importance of his Eurasian project, that in the general instruction of the Berlin Society of Science (1700) and other academy drafts, he cited the idea of the scientific mission in China and Russia as the essential aim of the academy’s work. Especially propitious for Leibniz, was the fact that he kept up a close personal relationship to the Russian Czar Peter I (the Great), and was at his disposal as adviser on questions of infrastructure….
    The idea of Europe, China, and Russia working together, led Leibniz, in the disastrous period after the Thirty Years War, to create the foundation of modern Europe. He saw the key to this in the infrastructural opening and development of Eurasia—above all of Russia and China, based upon a scientific renaissance”.
    G.W. Leibniz and the Ecumenical Alliance of All Eurasia, by Elisabeth [email protected]://www.schillerinstitute.org/fid_91-96/963_Leibniz_Alliance.html

    Solzhenitsyn also had the vision where the future of Russia lays:
    “Fortunately we have a home, a spacious and unsullied home preserved for us by history-the Russian Northeast. Let us give up trying to restore order overseas, keep our grabbing imperial hands off neighbors who want to live their own lives in freedom – and turn our national and political zeal toward the untamed expanses of the Northeast, whose emptiness is becoming intolerable to our neighbors now that life on earth is so tight packed….our ocean is the Arctic, not the Indian Ocean!” It is a frontier that must be protected. From the greedy neighbors from across the ocean.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    The Schiller Institute is a LaRouche organization. I'm not sure if it's a reliable source.
    , @annamaria
    Thank you for this gem of historical records.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Kiza
    There is no doubt that at present prices the exploitation of gas and oil from Arctic is unprofitable. But it is also blatantly obvious that two trends will change this in the medium term:
    1) oil and gas will become rarer commodities and
    2) technological capability will keep increasing to make it possible to extract these two commodities in less and less hospitable zones.

    The real issue here is that US and Canada lay claim to the whole of the Arctic and pay a lot of lip service to "International Law" wherever and whenever they can use it as a badgering tool. They call onto law for others, whilst calling onto "reality on the ground" that is power projection for themselves. Canada is particularly vicious in attacking Russia and the Russians - I have not seen a single Canadian TV or film production which does not present the Russians as subhuman, thieving and grabbing scum. A wonderful self-projection of Canadians. In addition, Canada is the second most active meddler, after the US, in Ukraine, fighting Russia in its front-yard.

    This article by Saker emphasizes the point that Russia has a strategic advantage in the cold domains and can project its power into this area most successfully. It will not be easy for US+Canada to challenge Russia in the Arctic militarily. But this just makes Ukraine that more important as a place to create a permanent warfare against Russia, and South China Sea to create a permanent war-like situation against China. A 30-year war in Ukraine would be a short war: as long as US and Russia stand there will be a war in Ukraine. The only question is - what can Russia and China do to repay in kind, that is bring such permanent warfare to the doorstep of their opponents. Can they learn from the master warmakers?

    Canada is an example of a swift and disastrous transformation from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. Case in study is Canada’s ardent support for Ukrainian neo-nazis. Unlike the quiet demeanor of the former collaborators from the Ukrainian Waffen SS division, which live in Europe (the Galicia division was heavily involved into bloody suppression of the partisan movement agains fascists in East European countries), the Canadian descendants of the collaborators are quite loud and influential.
    Mr. Harper of Canada has revealed a soft spot for Ukrainian neo-nazis; the decisions to sent Canadian soldiers to train Ukrainian neo-nazis were “coming directly from the Prime Minister’s Office.” http://newcoldwar.org/controversy-in-canada-after-u-s-blocks-training-of-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/

    Read More
    • Agree: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @Kiza
    A standard, worn-out excuse of the Canadians is - it is all due to the big and nasty Uncle down-south. But this is shallow and does not carry water/ice any more. The Canadians have been bitten by a mad/crazy imperialist bug and they are sick/ill. They cannot wage a war against Russia in the Arctic, but they can certainly do it in Ukraine. Therefore, do not expect Canada, the US Mini-Me, to ever pull out of Ukraine, not even under a non-Harper government.
    , @Da-Mith
    " from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. "

    Too true.... but not unlike so many others... Australia comes to mind.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Jus' Sayin'...
    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia's pretty frail continental shelf arguments. I'd also add that the idea of a Norhwest passage has proven illusory for about four centuries now. If I were Putin, I wouldn't count on the predictions of AGW models. The Arctic ice pack goes through cycles that no one really understands.

    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia’s pretty frail continental shelf arguments

    Canada has her own problems up there, not just with water but with land. They’ve been sending dogsled teams into remote areas so they don’t lose their claims under international law, which apparently says use it or lose it.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • There is no doubt that at present prices the exploitation of gas and oil from Arctic is unprofitable. But it is also blatantly obvious that two trends will change this in the medium term:
    1) oil and gas will become rarer commodities and
    2) technological capability will keep increasing to make it possible to extract these two commodities in less and less hospitable zones.

    The real issue here is that US and Canada lay claim to the whole of the Arctic and pay a lot of lip service to “International Law” wherever and whenever they can use it as a badgering tool. They call onto law for others, whilst calling onto “reality on the ground” that is power projection for themselves. Canada is particularly vicious in attacking Russia and the Russians – I have not seen a single Canadian TV or film production which does not present the Russians as subhuman, thieving and grabbing scum. A wonderful self-projection of Canadians. In addition, Canada is the second most active meddler, after the US, in Ukraine, fighting Russia in its front-yard.

    This article by Saker emphasizes the point that Russia has a strategic advantage in the cold domains and can project its power into this area most successfully. It will not be easy for US+Canada to challenge Russia in the Arctic militarily. But this just makes Ukraine that more important as a place to create a permanent warfare against Russia, and South China Sea to create a permanent war-like situation against China. A 30-year war in Ukraine would be a short war: as long as US and Russia stand there will be a war in Ukraine. The only question is – what can Russia and China do to repay in kind, that is bring such permanent warfare to the doorstep of their opponents. Can they learn from the master warmakers?

    Read More
    • Replies: @annamaria
    Canada is an example of a swift and disastrous transformation from a decent country into a whoring one, pandering to Israeli and US interests. Case in study is Canada's ardent support for Ukrainian neo-nazis. Unlike the quiet demeanor of the former collaborators from the Ukrainian Waffen SS division, which live in Europe (the Galicia division was heavily involved into bloody suppression of the partisan movement agains fascists in East European countries), the Canadian descendants of the collaborators are quite loud and influential.
    Mr. Harper of Canada has revealed a soft spot for Ukrainian neo-nazis; the decisions to sent Canadian soldiers to train Ukrainian neo-nazis were "coming directly from the Prime Minister’s Office." http://newcoldwar.org/controversy-in-canada-after-u-s-blocks-training-of-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Sean
    Protect high cost oil from who, and useful as the northern route is for Chinese goods going to Europe what good does it do Russia?

    Russia would benefit as intermediaries in trade between Europe and China and by providing security infrastructure for the trade. Just as the US Navy does for a lot of global trade today.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @unit472
    Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin. Look, Conoco and BP have for decades now been trying to figure a way to send the trillions of cu ft of Prudhoe Bay natural gas 1800 miles to Calgary and thence connect to existing pipeline networks to the Great Lakes population centers. They haven't yet found it a way to do it and make money. They need a sustained price of natural gas 4 to 5 times the Henry Hub , Louisiana price to make it happen and so its not going to happen. Russian arctic gas fields are even more remote and LNG tankers can only operate in the summer when demand is at its lowest. Shell couldn't even get its drilling platform up into the Alaskan Arctic and has abandoned the idea of offshore oil production now that oil prices are below $100/barrel.

    Putin, however persists in the idea that Russia can develop a strategic energy weapon even as the Gazprom's market cap shrank from $360 billion to $50 billion in the past few years. Everywhere you look new natural gas supplies are being found. The Japanese claim they will be commercially exploiting sea floor methane hydrates in 5 or 6 years. If that happens the world has an almost limitless supply of natural gas. As for oil, if Petrobras can't profitably exploit is deep water oil fields in tropical waters at anywhere near today's prices, developing arctic oil fields is economic fiction even if Russia had the capital and know how which they don't.

    As to the miltary deployment, unless the US is planning a nuclear first strike on Russia using its SSBN to launch depressed trajectory strikes on Russian arctic bases and inland cities, there is no military reason for American navy forces to operate in the Arctic anymore than the Antarctic!

    {“Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin.”}

    Just one more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of a Neocon operative.
    President Putin has single-handedly outsmarted and outwitted a dozen Neocon warmongering filth so-called leaders, with half his brain tied behind his back.
    (…to give the low-life scum a sporting chance).

    The Neocon scum are foaming at the mouth with impotent rage.
    The Neo-Nazi goons have short memories.
    This time around Russia will no raise their victorious banner on the lair of the Hitlerite scum, because this time around there will be no Nazi Reichstag: there will be a glass parking lot instead, where Russian Armata tanks will do their annual tank biathlon.

    Read More
    • Agree: Seamus Padraig
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin. Look, Conoco and BP have for decades now been trying to figure a way to send the trillions of cu ft of Prudhoe Bay natural gas 1800 miles to Calgary and thence connect to existing pipeline networks to the Great Lakes population centers. They haven’t yet found it a way to do it and make money. They need a sustained price of natural gas 4 to 5 times the Henry Hub , Louisiana price to make it happen and so its not going to happen. Russian arctic gas fields are even more remote and LNG tankers can only operate in the summer when demand is at its lowest. Shell couldn’t even get its drilling platform up into the Alaskan Arctic and has abandoned the idea of offshore oil production now that oil prices are below $100/barrel.

    Putin, however persists in the idea that Russia can develop a strategic energy weapon even as the Gazprom’s market cap shrank from $360 billion to $50 billion in the past few years. Everywhere you look new natural gas supplies are being found. The Japanese claim they will be commercially exploiting sea floor methane hydrates in 5 or 6 years. If that happens the world has an almost limitless supply of natural gas. As for oil, if Petrobras can’t profitably exploit is deep water oil fields in tropical waters at anywhere near today’s prices, developing arctic oil fields is economic fiction even if Russia had the capital and know how which they don’t.

    As to the miltary deployment, unless the US is planning a nuclear first strike on Russia using its SSBN to launch depressed trajectory strikes on Russian arctic bases and inland cities, there is no military reason for American navy forces to operate in the Arctic anymore than the Antarctic!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    {"Just more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of Vladimir Putin."}

    Just one more delusional geopolitics from the empty mind of a Neocon operative.
    President Putin has single-handedly outsmarted and outwitted a dozen Neocon warmongering filth so-called leaders, with half his brain tied behind his back.
    (...to give the low-life scum a sporting chance).

    The Neocon scum are foaming at the mouth with impotent rage.
    The Neo-Nazi goons have short memories.
    This time around Russia will no raise their victorious banner on the lair of the Hitlerite scum, because this time around there will be no Nazi Reichstag: there will be a glass parking lot instead, where Russian Armata tanks will do their annual tank biathlon.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Protect high cost oil from who, and useful as the northern route is for Chinese goods going to Europe what good does it do Russia?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Russia would benefit as intermediaries in trade between Europe and China and by providing security infrastructure for the trade. Just as the US Navy does for a lot of global trade today.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • AndrewR [AKA "Aiden"] says:
    @Jus' Sayin'...
    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia's pretty frail continental shelf arguments. I'd also add that the idea of a Norhwest passage has proven illusory for about four centuries now. If I were Putin, I wouldn't count on the predictions of AGW models. The Arctic ice pack goes through cycles that no one really understands.

    I’m too lazy to look but IIRC even the most conservative climate prediction models show that the NW passage will become increasingly navigable over the next century and probably for centuries beyond that. I don’t think Russia has a large ideological faction committed to completely denying the consensus of the global climatologist community so it’s unsurprising Russia is investing so much in the Arctic based on the steadily decreasing summer ice cap.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @AndrewR
    No mention of Canada? They have a lot more Arctic territory than the US and there are few institutional barriers to information exchange or military cooperation between the US and Canada. I find it hard to believe a serious discussion of Arctic geopolitics could fail to explicitly mention Canada.

    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia’s pretty frail continental shelf arguments. I’d also add that the idea of a Norhwest passage has proven illusory for about four centuries now. If I were Putin, I wouldn’t count on the predictions of AGW models. The Arctic ice pack goes through cycles that no one really understands.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AndrewR
    I'm too lazy to look but IIRC even the most conservative climate prediction models show that the NW passage will become increasingly navigable over the next century and probably for centuries beyond that. I don't think Russia has a large ideological faction committed to completely denying the consensus of the global climatologist community so it's unsurprising Russia is investing so much in the Arctic based on the steadily decreasing summer ice cap.
    , @Reg Cæsar

    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia’s pretty frail continental shelf arguments
     
    Canada has her own problems up there, not just with water but with land. They've been sending dogsled teams into remote areas so they don't lose their claims under international law, which apparently says use it or lose it.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • […] pro-Russian blogger called The Saker produced this map along with a post on Russian military capabilities in the Arctic, which are strong and […]

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • No mention of Canada? They have a lot more Arctic territory than the US and there are few institutional barriers to information exchange or military cooperation between the US and Canada. I find it hard to believe a serious discussion of Arctic geopolitics could fail to explicitly mention Canada.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jus' Sayin'...
    Canada has frequently expressed concerns about Russian claims to Arctic waters based on Russia's pretty frail continental shelf arguments. I'd also add that the idea of a Norhwest passage has proven illusory for about four centuries now. If I were Putin, I wouldn't count on the predictions of AGW models. The Arctic ice pack goes through cycles that no one really understands.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Do you think that there may be contentious issues of international law on which Russia and China may find common ground in contesting doctrine accepted by Western countries?

    My provisional guess is that Russia will be relying on an extension of the continental shelf from its land borders to ground its claims whereas China would find too much insistence on such traditional criteria inimical to its case for grabbing rocks in the South China Sea (and whatever the one further north is called). China seems to be relying on a fictional past such as deems Tibet and Taiwan always to have been part of the Chinese empire.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The river of time flows on, and empires crumble, leaving behind only legend that becomes myth, while new polities arise to take their place. This process of decay and creation is going to receive a boost from "peak energy" and, above all, climate change - which will redraw the maps of power to an extent...
  • Don’t you think that any sort of widespread implementation of agriculture in the deglaciated lands of the Arctic would happen far beyond 3000 A.D? It would take hundreds of years for the decay of colonizing plant species to build up just a few inches of topsoil.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Good post – what is missing is technology— human mind is linear technology is exponential… Your analysis is linear and assume technology will follow same trend. but in 1000 year technological progress might be unimaginable.trasport to other planets, terraforming mars, cooling earth temperature by transforming co2 into o2, agriculture productivity are just examples… The real problem is not 3000 but between 2000 and 2050 where environmental damage might not be offset by technological discoveries…

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Editorial note: This article was first published at Arctic Progress in February 2011. In the next few weeks I will be reposting the best material from there. The Arctic to become a pole of global economic growth? Image credit – Scenic Reflections. - Northward ho!: An account of the far North and its people. In...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that's about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That's still higher than most of the world.

    Re-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    Re-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn't fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    Re-Poland Hicks. Nope - the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    If you mean with rest of the world Africa and India than yes, Rednecks are smarter than average.

    Unlikely, Caste societies can only develop if groups don’t interbreed. That is why the US has a Caste society between whites and blacks but not between Wasps and low IQ emigrants like Italians, Greeks and Eastern European Jews.

    The only Somalis you see here could afford to get here, That requires serious money, especially in such a poor country. I would even argue that their high unemployment is due to being upper class

    The average pole is also much younger than the average Pole back home. Add in a minority of elite Poles and you get on average better educated. Besides it is not like the bottom 10% is hicks. They all are.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Chris
    Sounds interesting but the key is keeping out third world refugees/immigrants.

    I don’t think that will be peaceful. The ARCS I expect will become something resembling caste societies by the 22nd century.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Georgia Resident
    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.

    and
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that’s about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That’s still higher than most of the world.

    Re-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    Re-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn’t fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    Re-Poland Hicks. Nope – the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    Read More
    • Replies: @charly
    If you mean with rest of the world Africa and India than yes, Rednecks are smarter than average.

    Unlikely, Caste societies can only develop if groups don't interbreed. That is why the US has a Caste society between whites and blacks but not between Wasps and low IQ emigrants like Italians, Greeks and Eastern European Jews.

    The only Somalis you see here could afford to get here, That requires serious money, especially in such a poor country. I would even argue that their high unemployment is due to being upper class

    The average pole is also much younger than the average Pole back home. Add in a minority of elite Poles and you get on average better educated. Besides it is not like the bottom 10% is hicks. They all are.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @charly
    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    The critical point about societies like Sweden or the UK isn’t even so much the higher but still modest fertility rates of the incomers (in tandem with their younger ages) but that many of them continue to come in while ethnic Brits and Swedes emigrate in large numbers.

    This is resulting in surprisingly fact population replacement in those areas.

    I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.

    Actually the “Jews” but of that is something of an urban legend. Will have a post on that someday.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @charly
    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water.

    I wouldn’t say so. There’s still tons of land, and better, very interconnected via waterways.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @AG
    "China encroach on the Russian Far East?"

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    Antarctic ice will take centuries to melt, even under the most apocalyptic scenarios.

    But by 3000 AD who knows?

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders…

    Why not? More people –> Sky-rocketing property prices. It’s good to get in early. :)

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Georgia Resident
    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.

    and
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    1. There is something called maths. It allows you to calculated for example how high the birthrate needs to be for a 10% minority to pull up the average birthrate from 1.5 to 1.8. That would be 4.5. Problem is those groups are way less than 10% and maximum normal family size of those groups were 5/6 20 years ago, now less.

    2 I used Eastern European Jews and Italians because when they landed they were considered dumber than average. If i would now make a joke about how Italian Americans as dumb than people would look funny at me and not because it would be racist. Doing it with Jews and i would be considered an idiot

    Iraq Upper class + Christians
    Afghanistan Upper class
    Poland Hicks
    Somalia Serious Upper class
    Thailand Some Southerners but mostly North East (not good)
    Iran Upper class
    Eritrea Upper class
    China probably the normal Chinese emigrant.
    Syria Christians
    Turkey Anatolian and Kurdish Hicks

    I would go for the upper class

    3. So it is Georgia USA

    4. There has to an incredible amount of upheaval for property rights to seriously break down. But there is a problem with minorities, like for example the Turkish, that will be significantly richer than the average Norwegian.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    I believe that people in Scandinavia and Finland enjoy quite generous social benefits that include maternity and paternity leave. Social welfare and family policies that encourage high female work participation, gender equality and family support translate into a high fertility rate.

    http://www.nikk.no/Gender+Equality+and+Fertility.9UFRzO43.ips

    The lowest fertility rates in First World countries (Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain) are often associated with social policies that present women with either/or options (they can work and stay single OR they can marry / have children and drop out of work BUT they can’t work and marry / have children) and which reflect strong conservative religious or social attitudes in those countries.

    http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2008_4/01billari.pdf

    BTW fertility rates in Muslim countries have been falling though the media hardly talks about this. Iran carried out a family planning education program in the 1980s/90s and that country is now regarded as a model of how family planning education should be done as fertility rates have crashed there.

    http://www.lifenews.com/2012/07/05/underpopulation-muslim-world-faces-devastating-fertility-decline/

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @charly
    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    1. “Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia.”
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. “Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.”
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:

    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/

    It’s not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.

    and

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    “The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)”

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. “They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. “Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.”
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @charly
    1. There is something called maths. It allows you to calculated for example how high the birthrate needs to be for a 10% minority to pull up the average birthrate from 1.5 to 1.8. That would be 4.5. Problem is those groups are way less than 10% and maximum normal family size of those groups were 5/6 20 years ago, now less.

    2 I used Eastern European Jews and Italians because when they landed they were considered dumber than average. If i would now make a joke about how Italian Americans as dumb than people would look funny at me and not because it would be racist. Doing it with Jews and i would be considered an idiot

    Iraq Upper class + Christians
    Afghanistan Upper class
    Poland Hicks
    Somalia Serious Upper class
    Thailand Some Southerners but mostly North East (not good)
    Iran Upper class
    Eritrea Upper class
    China probably the normal Chinese emigrant.
    Syria Christians
    Turkey Anatolian and Kurdish Hicks

    I would go for the upper class

    3. So it is Georgia USA

    4. There has to an incredible amount of upheaval for property rights to seriously break down. But there is a problem with minorities, like for example the Turkish, that will be significantly richer than the average Norwegian.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Re-rednecks. Actually the IQ of US rednecks is something like 95 (that's about what Whites score in the lowest performing state, West Virginia).

    That's still higher than most of the world.

    Re-And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    Exactly. If anything refugee flows will be picking up in the decades ahead. I expect that by the end of the century countries like Sweden, Canada, and Russia will have become something resembling caste societies. I think there will be incredible pressure on the part of the indigenous population to avoid giving the newcomers formal citizenship.

    Re-Somalia Serious Upper class. Doesn't fly with me. Somalis have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group in the UK.

    Re-Poland Hicks. Nope - the average Pole in the UK is better educated that the average Pole at home.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mark Sleboda
    Hey have you read Lawrence Smith - he stole the march on the Arctic World paradigm anacronym on you, I think with NORCS (2010). Though ARCS certainly has a nicer ring to it :)

    http://www.amazon.com/The-World-2050-Civilizations-Northern/dp/0525951814

    http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/downloads/297/396.pdf

    I’ve read Smith’s book though after I wrote this article. I will write a review someday.

    But thanks for supporting ARCS over NORCs. :)

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @AG
    "China encroach on the Russian Far East?"

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    South Pole landmass is mostly under water.

    I wouldn't say so. There's still tons of land, and better, very interconnected via waterways.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Georgia Resident
    How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn't want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.

    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    Read More
    • Replies: @Georgia Resident
    1. "Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia."
    Source? Links strongly preferred.

    2. "Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians."
    Yeah, and immigrants to the US at the time were mostly from Europe. Therefore that must mean most immigrants to the US today are from Europe! *Sarcasm* However, if we assume that employment correlates with group IQ, this source would suggest that on average immigrants to Sweden, at least, have a little less on the ball than the average native:
    http://www.thelocal.se/37584/20111126/
    It's not conclusive, of course, but it does make one wonder.

    and
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden#Ethnicity

    "The fastest growing groups of foreign-born residents in Sweden between 2010 and 2011 were the following nationalities:
    Iraq (+ 3738)
    Afghanistan (+ 3069)
    Poland (+ 2612)
    Somalia (+ 2319)
    Thailand (+ 2235)
    Iran (+ 1708))
    Eritrea (+ 1693)
    China (+ 1659)
    Syria (+ 1599)
    Turkey (+ 1382)"

    With the exceptions of Poland and Thailand, which are both decent on IQ, and China, which scores quite well, these are not ethnicities known for their overwhelming intellectual process, at least not of late. And my point was to also take into consideration future immigration of refugees of the environmental cataclysm Anatoly was predicting. Since this would overwhelmingly be from more equatorial regions, which tend to produce a lot of the low IQ populations, it stands to reason that many of these future migrants would be lower than the average Scandinavian in IQ.

    3. "They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    No need to be rude.

    4. "Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value."
    I understand that. My point was that if inequality grows to such an extent that social upheaval occurs and property rights break down, having legal title to land is worthless. Read carefully before making condescending remarks.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    The critical point about societies like Sweden or the UK isn't even so much the higher but still modest fertility rates of the incomers (in tandem with their younger ages) but that many of them continue to come in while ethnic Brits and Swedes emigrate in large numbers.

    This is resulting in surprisingly fact population replacement in those areas.

    I know the type In the 1920′s it was Jews and Italians.

    Actually the "Jews" but of that is something of an urban legend. Will have a post on that someday.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • “China encroach on the Russian Far East?”

    South pole instead. Antarctica as a colony for Chinese?

    Read More
    • Replies: @charly
    South Pole landmass is mostly under water. Removal of Ice would lift it but that takes millennia. But even the melting of the ice would take decades. But AK is wrong on South Africa and Southern South America
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Antarctic ice will take centuries to melt, even under the most apocalyptic scenarios.

    But by 3000 AD who knows?

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • How much of the (relatively) high fertility of the Nordic countries is currently due to fast-breeding, low-IQ refugees? I think that the flood of third-world immigrants moving into the ARCS countries, with the promise of more to come as the climate shifts, would doom those countries to a dark future. I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders, with rising inequality and an underemployed lower class positioned to result in social upheaval.

    Read More
    • Replies: @charly
    Nordic people have a high fertility rate due to their cohabitation ways.
    The share of migrants is even to low to have that much of an influence.
    The fast breeders are almost extinct. No migrant group still has 10+ kids. 4 is about maximum, especially in a car centric society as Scandinavia. Low IQ immigrants? I know the type In the 1920's it was Jews and Italians. They are still obviously dumber than Rednecks.
    Land is valuable because of population pressure. No people no value.


    ps. Which of the low IQ place is it. Georgia USA or Georgia USSR

    , @Jennifer Hor
    I believe that people in Scandinavia and Finland enjoy quite generous social benefits that include maternity and paternity leave. Social welfare and family policies that encourage high female work participation, gender equality and family support translate into a high fertility rate.
    http://www.nikk.no/Gender+Equality+and+Fertility.9UFRzO43.ips

    The lowest fertility rates in First World countries (Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain) are often associated with social policies that present women with either/or options (they can work and stay single OR they can marry / have children and drop out of work BUT they can't work and marry / have children) and which reflect strong conservative religious or social attitudes in those countries.
    http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/webjournal.files/population/2008_4/01billari.pdf

    BTW fertility rates in Muslim countries have been falling though the media hardly talks about this. Iran carried out a family planning education program in the 1980s/90s and that country is now regarded as a model of how family planning education should be done as fertility rates have crashed there.
    http://www.lifenews.com/2012/07/05/underpopulation-muslim-world-faces-devastating-fertility-decline/

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I certainly wouldn’t want to buy land in any country likely to become a haven for third-worlders...

    Why not? More people --> Sky-rocketing property prices. It's good to get in early. :)

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Hey have you read Lawrence Smith – he stole the march on the Arctic World paradigm anacronym on you, I think with NORCS (2010). Though ARCS certainly has a nicer ring to it :)

    http://www.amazon.com/The-World-2050-Civilizations-Northern/dp/0525951814

    http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/downloads/297/396.pdf

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I've read Smith's book though after I wrote this article. I will write a review someday.

    But thanks for supporting ARCS over NORCs. :)

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • First Chinese ship makes trip to Atlantic via Arctic route
    AFP Aug 17, 2012, 05.29PM IST

    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-08-17/news/33249671_1_northern-sea-route-ship-arctic

    REYKJAVIK: The first Chinese ship has travelled from the Pacific to Atlantic via the Arctic along the Russian coast, an Icelandic scientist who participated on the expedition said Friday.

    The Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, docked in Iceland after having sailed the so-called Northern Sea Route from the Pacific, Egill Thor Nielsson told AFP.

    “This is the first Chinese ship to sail this route and of course it is important because it’s a more than 40 percent shorter route to Europe,” he said.

    The Chinese are even more interested in this route after having found the passage relatively easy.

    “It took almost ten days to sail from the East Siberian Sea and through the Barents Sea, and during that time there was real pack ice for only seven days,” he said.

    Climate change is opening the prospect of commercial shipping via the Northern Sea Route or the Northwest Passage north of Canada.

    More and more ships are travelling via the Northern Sea Route. Four made the passage in 2010, 34 last year and the figure will be higher this year, said Nielsson.

    The Snow Dragon, bought from Ukraine in 1993, is currently China’s only ice breaker. A second being built in China with the help of a Finnish company, should be completed in 2014.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Sounds interesting but the key is keeping out third world refugees/immigrants.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I don't think that will be peaceful. The ARCS I expect will become something resembling caste societies by the 22nd century.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The river of time flows on, and empires crumble, leaving behind only legend that becomes myth, while new polities arise to take their place. This process of decay and creation is going to receive a boost from "peak energy" and, above all, climate change - which will redraw the maps of power to an extent...
  • I have finally managed to find a criticism of the alarmist paper by Sherwood and Huber which Anatoly largely based his conclusions on.

    http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/comments-on-the-study-researchers-find-future-temperatures-could-exceed-livable-limits/

    http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/main-conclusions-2/

    I am no climate scientist and am in no position to have an expert opinion in both sides of the arguments but I certainly am quite skeptical of ALARMIST AGW scenarios and don’t believe there’s any strong evidence for the more alarmist scenarios. Sorry Anatoly – just don’t think there’s strong evidence.

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Interesting post. I would however like to point out that, as far as I’m aware, there’s no actual evidence that hypercanes ever have or ever could form. Granted something like this may have occurred in the early years of the planet’s existence where the atmosphere was unstable … it may have even happened during the dinosaur era after the asteroid impact since the elements needed to form a hypercane were present as a result of the impact …. But think of the enormous amounts of heat required to heat a body of water 200 – 300 miles wide up to a temperature of 120 F … Water has a very high sp. heat. I think only an asteroid impact that tears a gaping hole in the Earth can do that. And if it takes an impact that big for them to form, they’re the least of our worries.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • I believe that New Zealand’s South Island would remain habitable but, as today, would be so isolated as to not take part in much international diplomacy/civilisation.

    The thing that you have not addressed is the role of disease. The tropical regions are disease ridden if the tropical zones move north then I would expect those diseases to move with them.

    The French inadvertently ran an experiment to see what happens to malnourished Caucasians in the tropics by trying to build the Panama canal with French labourers. 95% stuck in my mind but I can’t remember if that was off sick (unable to labour) or dead, the British did similar things trying to colonise the West Indies.

    This has major implications if climate change happened quickly enough then large areas of the northern hemisphere could very rapidly be depopulated under a scenario similar to what happened to the American Indians with the arrival of European diseases. This would leave the land to be occupied by people who were more disease resistant (people from the tropics) But that would mean less scientific knowledge would be retained and a lot more information/industrial processes would be lost.

    I would personally be surprised if in 1000 years humanity had started to rebuild its civilisation to the extent that you suggest.

    Also the effective separation of northern and southern hemisphere is a speciation event for humanity but that is with much longer time periods.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Dear Charly and kalevipoeg,

    Thanks for the comments.
    1.)”Those algae absorb CO2 and thus are a brake on the green house effect.”
    I think these algae would be a good way to reduce global warming …and it’s essentially ‘natural’ and inexpensive.
    2.)”And You would be surprised by how many black people complain about the heat of the sun during our summertime in Estonia.”
    “One can easily manage 90 minutes in a sauna at 90C, but not 24 hours at 50C.”
    Hmmm….I thought the average summer temperature is 16-18C in Estonia?(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Estonia)
    Whereas, where I come from, it is more than 30C most of the time with average 27C(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Malaysia)
    I once visited Berlin during summer – it was COLD(temperature average about 16C then) for me. I guess those blacks are Americans from Minnesota perhaps(rather than from equatorial Africa which has temperature from 26-28C like Nigeria -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Nigeria#Climate)?
    If temperature reaches 50C 24 hours in Arctic, mankind is (literally) toast.
    3.)”I seem to recall that there have been extensive blooms of plankton between northern 70-80 latitudes.”
    Again, that’s plankton….and that’s PROTISTAN, not land plants. Photoautothrophic protistans require less light than land plants. Also, you did not specify whether those plankton blooms are due to cryophilic genera or mesophilic ones. There are also chemoautotrophic organisms that do not rely on light to synthesize food.
    Moreover, these extensive blooms could be due to chemoautotrophs, or part of a natural process. Also, warmer seas, rather than light availability is associated with ‘spring blooms’(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_bloom)
    4.)”By the way, the ocean does absorb about 50% of the human-emitted CO2.
    As the oceans warm, their carrying capacity of CO2 decreases and the oceans will eventually start to outgas CO2.”
    IF our oceans are made up of STERILE, ABIOTIC water, then your scenario is probably right on. However, as I’ve said , we cannot exclude the influence of phytoplanktons and chemoautotrophic planktons in the oceans. As ocean temperature rises, mesophilic phytoplanktons are bound to bloom. These will use up CO2 as well. Hence, I still believe that the excess CO2 can be somehow mitigated.
    5.)”Trust me, currently the main limiting factor of agricultural season is snowcover and night frosts, not light deficiencies.”
    Not that I mean to ‘distrust’ anyone – but anecdotal ‘evidences’(like how I felt about Berlin’s summertime [lack of] ‘heat’ or blacks complaining of sweltering heat in summertime Tallinn etc.) are not ‘proofs’ enough. I don’t deny that snowcover and night frosts inhibit plant growth….but do you have scientific evidence that light deficiency does not inhibit the growth of most angiosperms? Lichens, shrubs , bryophytes and photosynthetic protistans CAN grow in light-deficient areas but not most angiosperms(of which most agricultural plants belong to).
    6.)”Of course, if by wide scale agriculture you mean 2-3 crops per year from one land, then that is at the moment out of the question. 2 crops per year might be possible in the future.”
    Certainly out of the question now. I still think it’s out of the question in the far future. Partly, you’ve answered it yourself : “growing good soils at high latitudes takes centuries and millennia.” I’m still unconvinced that heat ALONE can replace summertime light deficiency in the polar areas.

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • sinotibetan,

    there is ample light near the Arctic circle for wide scale agriculture.
    Some of the best agricultural lands are at the northern shores of the Bay of Bothnia, at 66 latitude north.
    Trust me, currently the main limiting factor of agricultural season is snowcover and night frosts, not light deficiencies.
    And You would be surprised by how many black people complain about the heat of the sun during our summertime in Estonia. Due to inclination, a small hat only covers one’s head, not the body. It is not the intensity, it is the endurance. One can easily manage 90 minutes in a sauna at 90C, but not 24 hours at 50C.

    Of course, if by wide scale agriculture you mean 2-3 crops per year from one land, then that is at the moment out of the question. 2 crops per year might be possible in the future.

    /* “I still think the amount of LIGHT(not ‘total energy’) from the sun at the Arctic and above remains insufficient…in spite of warmer temperatures….to support plant life suited for wide-scale agricultural pursuits.” */

    Lets go further north to the Arctic Ocean.
    I seem to recall that there have been extensive blooms of plankton between northern 70-80 latitudes.
    The only limiting factor there seems to be the receding sea ice cover.

    And as I also seem to recall, the northern shore of Greenland used to be covered by a forest before ice-ages set in.

    By the way, the ocean does absorb about 50% of the human-emitted CO2.
    As the oceans warm, their carrying capacity of CO2 decreases and the oceans will eventually start to outgas CO2. The biosphere is only able to compensate at rather narrow bounds. The Goldilocks region assumes that the climate sensitivity is not a constant, but an upwardly open parabole – move further away from the center (where we used to be) and it becomes increasingly difficult to return. You can return from the low end, but not from the high end after oceans have boiled away.

    And that is why in my understanding it would be much more difficult (and less likely) to stop at +11C than at +5C , because +11C is further away from the center of climate insensitivity. Venusian future is not out of the question after +14+16C.

    As to the AK scenario, growing good soils at high latitudes takes centuries and millennia.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @sinotibetan
    kalevipoeg,

    Thanks for your comments! Interesting.
    I concur with your points except a few clarifications:-
    1.)"Light is limiting only within the Arctic circle and only during the dark half-year."
    I meant Arctic circle and north to that would still be unlikely to be 'centers of civilization' even if(and that's a very big if, in my opinion)AK's predictions come to pass. Above the Arctic, even though there's 24 hours/day daylight but the sun rays are too feeble to support wide scale agricultural pursuits to support a large human population. If AK's scenario becomes reality in the future, I think the 50-60 degrees latitudes would be the most habitable rather than north to the Arctic or south of the Antarctic.
    2.)"Integrated over the entire 7 month 'illumination' period, the Arctic receives about 3.0 GJ/m^2 of energy. And this is pretty consistent over the entire Arctic basin area."
    Just a few questions:-
    a.) The integrated amount of energy includes (visible) light and other electromagnetic wavelengths and heat, yes? Photosynthesis in most land plants depend on certain wavelengths of light. Those outside the wavelengths are not involved in photosynthetic processes. I still think the amount of LIGHT(not 'total energy') from the sun at the Arctic and above remains insufficient...in spite of warmer temperatures....to support plant life suited for wide-scale agricultural pursuits.
    b.)Assuming CO2 is the main culprit for global warming as for now(excluding the release of other greenhouse gasses emanating from melting permafrost should CO2-driven global warming persists) and also assuming that humans chop off far too much land plants - I wonder why other NON-PLANTAE , autothropic protistan organisms in aquatic habitats cannot compensate for the loss of land plants. I always think of the biosphere as a dynamic system able to compensate for any excesses or deficits. With 'ocean warming', mesophilic and thermophilic photoautotrophs can thrive and thus adsorb the excess CO2 and thus offset CO2 increase. I still do not think that humans ALONE have enough impact to account for current climatic changes and actually am not convinced CO2 is to be solely blamed for the warming. If AK's predictions are true....it's actually doom for mankind still. A fully 'decompensated' climatic equilibrium would lead us down the path of a Hellish, inhabitable, sterile and lifeless Venusian atmosphere.

    sinotibetan

    In most of the ocean algae are not limited by sun light or CO2 but by minerals. That is why there are plans to dump iron dust in the ocean. Also if a place is to hot for life then there will be more runoff of soil. This will lead to more minerals in the ocean and more algae. Those algae absorb CO2 and thus are a brake on the green house effect.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • kalevipoeg,

    Thanks for your comments! Interesting.
    I concur with your points except a few clarifications:-
    1.)”Light is limiting only within the Arctic circle and only during the dark half-year.”
    I meant Arctic circle and north to that would still be unlikely to be ‘centers of civilization’ even if(and that’s a very big if, in my opinion)AK’s predictions come to pass. Above the Arctic, even though there’s 24 hours/day daylight but the sun rays are too feeble to support wide scale agricultural pursuits to support a large human population. If AK’s scenario becomes reality in the future, I think the 50-60 degrees latitudes would be the most habitable rather than north to the Arctic or south of the Antarctic.
    2.)”Integrated over the entire 7 month ‘illumination’ period, the Arctic receives about 3.0 GJ/m^2 of energy. And this is pretty consistent over the entire Arctic basin area.”
    Just a few questions:-
    a.) The integrated amount of energy includes (visible) light and other electromagnetic wavelengths and heat, yes? Photosynthesis in most land plants depend on certain wavelengths of light. Those outside the wavelengths are not involved in photosynthetic processes. I still think the amount of LIGHT(not ‘total energy’) from the sun at the Arctic and above remains insufficient…in spite of warmer temperatures….to support plant life suited for wide-scale agricultural pursuits.
    b.)Assuming CO2 is the main culprit for global warming as for now(excluding the release of other greenhouse gasses emanating from melting permafrost should CO2-driven global warming persists) and also assuming that humans chop off far too much land plants – I wonder why other NON-PLANTAE , autothropic protistan organisms in aquatic habitats cannot compensate for the loss of land plants. I always think of the biosphere as a dynamic system able to compensate for any excesses or deficits. With ‘ocean warming’, mesophilic and thermophilic photoautotrophs can thrive and thus adsorb the excess CO2 and thus offset CO2 increase. I still do not think that humans ALONE have enough impact to account for current climatic changes and actually am not convinced CO2 is to be solely blamed for the warming. If AK’s predictions are true….it’s actually doom for mankind still. A fully ‘decompensated’ climatic equilibrium would lead us down the path of a Hellish, inhabitable, sterile and lifeless Venusian atmosphere.

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    • Replies: @charly
    In most of the ocean algae are not limited by sun light or CO2 but by minerals. That is why there are plans to dump iron dust in the ocean. Also if a place is to hot for life then there will be more runoff of soil. This will lead to more minerals in the ocean and more algae. Those algae absorb CO2 and thus are a brake on the green house effect.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • sinotibetan,
    today’s reports from Umea write about ripe strawberries in gardens. Umea is on the 64th latitude north.

    Anecdotic evidence from Estonia (~58 latitude) shows that any long warm spell during winter initiates plant growth, including winter crops and flowers. And without snowcover the grass stays green.

    There are many winter days when the daily average and max temps in southern Greenland are actually warmer than in San Francisco.

    As to Sun irradiation in the Arctic, look here:

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/03/open-thread-7-time-to-dehibernate.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b014e5fb7c9f4970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b014e5fb7c9f4970c

    http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/projects/d1fluxes/d1fluxes.html

    [Integrated over the entire 7 month 'illumination' period, the Arctic receives about 3.0 GJ/m^2 of energy. And this is pretty consistent over the entire Arctic basin area.]

    sinotibetan wrote:
    /* b.)The amount of sunlight received at such latitudes during the daylight part of the year is still less intense (probably about similar to the intensity of twilight ~ 20 the intensity of the equator perhaps) compared to lower latitudes. Probably would not be enough sunlight to promote wide-scale agriculture in spite of higher summer temperatures. */

    Lower latitudes only have more intense sunlight during middays (up to 6-10 hours?). Lower latitudes can’t compete during morning and evening hours.
    Estonian summer solstice is 18,5h long, the summer solstice night is as light as a really foggy day (as today).
    The North Pole gets sunlight 24/7/183.

    Currently the primary limitation for growing plants in northern latitudes is snowcover and nightfrost.
    Light is limiting only within the Arctic circle and only during the dark half-year.
    Summer max temps are already above 30C – in Greenland, northern Scandinavia, northern Siberia, Alaska. There are a few summer nights each year when night temps do not fall below 20C. Now add +10C to those temps and you should start to worry about heatwaves.

    However, not all northern areas have good soil for agriculture (Canada, Viena Karelia, Siberian mountains, Greenland).

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    That sounds like an interesting scenario.

    Incidentally, one of my long-term ambitions DOES the writing of a speculative fiction series set in the kind of Arctic world depicted in the post.

    Sounds like an overlap of Stephen King’s “The Stand”, and “The Cobra Event” by Richard Preston. The latter was literally a random discovery for me; I used to go to the library and pull three or four books at random, just to discover new authors and new interests. I read the first couple of chapters of a lot of shitty books that way, but I also discovered authors like Richard Preston and absorbing stories like The Cobra Event.

    Even if land was reclaimed from the sea as you describe, it’d likely be too salty to grow most of the agricultural crops we rely on today. Unless the flooding caused the oceans’ salinity to be greatly diluted, a possibility I didn’t see mentioned although I may have missed it. Very interesting and detailed post.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Justification: >60 degrees North or >60 degrees South, sun irradiation will be less than 40-50% of the sun irradiation in the equator. Above the Arctic circle, it should be ~20-30% as I estimated.

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page2.php

    http://academic.cengage.com/resource_uploads/downloads/0495555061_137179.pdf

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • I meant “~ 20% the intensity of the equator perhaps”

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • AK,

    “You also don’t mention the darkness that befalls the Arctic Circle. Continuous periods of darkness are very hard for plants to deal with (not to mention people). Plants continue to respire in the dark but because they can’t photosynthesis just run out of energy and die. The only way around this is to pull the temperatures down with the darkness.”
    “Surely it will be pretty cool when it’s dark though, what with the Sun not being there? Besides, I would imagine the crop cycles would be concentrated during the daylight part of the year?”
    a.) Pulling the temperatures down with the darkness does not increase the viability of plant life. The problem is the lack of light rather than temperature only – without it, plants cannot survive.
    b.)The amount of sunlight received at such latitudes during the daylight part of the year is still less intense (probably about similar to the intensity of twilight ~ 20 the intensity of the equator perhaps)compared to lower latitudes. Probably would not be enough sunlight to promote wide-scale agriculture in spite of higher summer temperatures.

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Candide
    AK, this was a pretty cool post. It would make a good basis for a great science fiction novel or movie. Definitely more realistic than that awful "2012" movie that I saw (for the first time) on HBO about two weeks ago.

    In my version of this dystopian novel "3000 AD," our heroes are several families trying to flee the northern hemisphere which is about to tilt into a full-blown war fought with bio-weapons (civilization having lost the ability to produce nukes). Small pox is back, having been released in the late 21st century in the World War III by the remnants of the USA, Russia, China and North Korea, all of whom had the virus stored in secret vaults. Since no vaccine was available, more than 80% of the world's population died. But the new bioweapon is some variation of ebola.

    Trying to make it to the southern hemisphere proves challenging, given the large zone of inhabitability surrounding the equator. Only possibility to cross the equator is at high altitude, or underwater - not sure which one I'd choose. Remember that much of modern technology has been lost, though there are remnants,

    That sounds like an interesting scenario.

    Incidentally, one of my long-term ambitions DOES the writing of a speculative fiction series set in the kind of Arctic world depicted in the post.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mark
    Sounds like an overlap of Stephen King's "The Stand", and "The Cobra Event" by Richard Preston. The latter was literally a random discovery for me; I used to go to the library and pull three or four books at random, just to discover new authors and new interests. I read the first couple of chapters of a lot of shitty books that way, but I also discovered authors like Richard Preston and absorbing stories like The Cobra Event.

    Even if land was reclaimed from the sea as you describe, it'd likely be too salty to grow most of the agricultural crops we rely on today. Unless the flooding caused the oceans' salinity to be greatly diluted, a possibility I didn't see mentioned although I may have missed it. Very interesting and detailed post.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anonymous
    Interesting post. A few comments. The 'lake' in the middle of Greenland, is only there because of the weight of the overlying ice. Melt the ice and the elastic rebound with remove the lake. It's also pretty unlikely for Greenland to be ice free by 3000AD. You also don't mention the darkness that befalls the Arctic Circle. Continuous periods of darkness are very hard for plants to deal with (not to mention people). Plants continue to respire in the dark but because they can't photosynthesis just run out of energy and die. The only way around this is to pull the temperatures down with the darkness.

    I'd be interested to hear what you think about climate change and especially CO2 emission scenarios and "peak oil". With fairly constrained fossil fuel production rates - oil and gas peaking within decades, coal well within the century - do you think there's enough carbon, or more realistically do the available fossil fuel production trajectories (and their impact on civilization) support the high end global warming scenarios?

    Thanks for the comment.

    Melt the ice and the elastic rebound with remove the lake.

    That looks like it would need quite a big rebound to do that, though I trust you on that as you’re the glaciology expert. By how much do you think it will be?

    The only way around this is to pull the temperatures down with the darkness.

    Surely it will be pretty cool when it’s dark though, what with the Sun not being there? Besides, I would imagine the crop cycles would be concentrated during the daylight part of the year?

    I’d be interested to hear what you think about climate change and especially CO2 emission scenarios and “peak oil”. … do you think there’s enough carbon, or more realistically do the available fossil fuel production trajectories (and their impact on civilization) support the high end global warming scenarios?

    By themselves, no. However, there are currently multiple feedbacks not included in the IPCC models (e.g. the release of Arctic methane and ocean clathrates; the desiccation of the Amazon, and many of the world’s forests turning from C sinks to sources), likewise the climate’s sensitivity to growing atm. CO2 concentrations may have been underestimated due to the global dimming effect. Bearing these in mind, I think that the high end scenarios remain realistic, despite the limited quantities of hydrocarbons.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website

    Interesting post. A few comments. The ‘lake’ in the middle of Greenland, is only there because of the weight of the overlying ice. Melt the ice and the elastic rebound with remove the lake. It’s also pretty unlikely for Greenland to be ice free by 3000AD. You also don’t mention the darkness that befalls the Arctic Circle. Continuous periods of darkness are very hard for plants to deal with (not to mention people). Plants continue to respire in the dark but because they can’t photosynthesis just run out of energy and die. The only way around this is to pull the temperatures down with the darkness.

    I’d be interested to hear what you think about climate change and especially CO2 emission scenarios and “peak oil”. With fairly constrained fossil fuel production rates – oil and gas peaking within decades, coal well within the century – do you think there’s enough carbon, or more realistically do the available fossil fuel production trajectories (and their impact on civilization) support the high end global warming scenarios?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks for the comment.

    Melt the ice and the elastic rebound with remove the lake.

    That looks like it would need quite a big rebound to do that, though I trust you on that as you're the glaciology expert. By how much do you think it will be?

    The only way around this is to pull the temperatures down with the darkness.

    Surely it will be pretty cool when it's dark though, what with the Sun not being there? Besides, I would imagine the crop cycles would be concentrated during the daylight part of the year?

    I’d be interested to hear what you think about climate change and especially CO2 emission scenarios and “peak oil”. ... do you think there’s enough carbon, or more realistically do the available fossil fuel production trajectories (and their impact on civilization) support the high end global warming scenarios?

    By themselves, no. However, there are currently multiple feedbacks not included in the IPCC models (e.g. the release of Arctic methane and ocean clathrates; the desiccation of the Amazon, and many of the world's forests turning from C sinks to sources), likewise the climate's sensitivity to growing atm. CO2 concentrations may have been underestimated due to the global dimming effect. Bearing these in mind, I think that the high end scenarios remain realistic, despite the limited quantities of hydrocarbons.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • AK,

    Although I’m not a true-blue ‘global warming skeptic’ and am no climate scientist(hence neither has the expertise nor time to examine all data on climate science, thus cannot take on any firm convictions on the issue), I am quite skeptical of the claims of global warming alarmists. To me, climate scientists have to deal with too many variables to make any RELIABLE conclusions on the future planet earth say even more than 50 years from now. The earth’s atmosphere and ecosystem is far too complex and the variables far too many to make DEFINITIVE assumptions. Hence, I have to say although your futuristic posts are interesting, I am skeptical they will come to pass. Care to address some issues?

    1.) I think there is no possibility of proving CAUSALITY in terms of global warming. Too many factors(natural and anthropogenic) may or may not contribute to global warming.
    Have climate scientists PROVEN an association of anthropogenic(and not natural) rise of CO2 to global warming and discounting all other ‘natural’ sources of CO2 or other substances that may contribute to global warming? Also,proof of association does NOT equate to proof of causality. One giant volcanic eruption (in one of those ‘supervolcanoes) can mitigate all anthropogenic CO2 emissions in a flash. Instead, there might be a ‘global freeze’ and ‘global darkness’ to kill off many.
    2.)As I rambled on about emergent diseases and the like(I happen to be involved in the medical field) in my earlier post, another issue is that IF even global warming is anthropogenic, there is the uncertainty that human civilizations(that contribute to the global warming if the theory is true) would remain to contribute to the eventual 3000AD scenario you put forth. Apart from viruses and emergent diseases(which I think will strike us at any time), global conflicts(ideological, religious, resource grabbing etc.; I think these will be more likely to happen in the near future) will help decimate a huge proportion of humanity. Also, Europe, N. America and East Asia will experience population shrinkage or even implosion(eg. China, Korea, Japan) in the near future. S.Korea and Japan has FAILED to revive their TFR and I predict the same will happen in China in a grand scale. These will reduce human population in the future. Certain regions like Latin America and South East Asia are already in demographic transition and very soon will join Europe and East Asia in population shrinking. Middle East still has higher TFR(and slower reductions) but it too will soon reach below-replacement TFR by the end of 21st Century. Middle East population might also be decimated by future religious/ideological wars(with the West, I predict) and if ‘global warming’ turn out true….drought. As for TFR reduction refractory Africa…..overpopulation would mean – increasing African migrants who will NOT be welcomed by their host countries when they become too many, emergent diseases decimating African populations(i.e. high fertility but even higher mortality) due to poor health-care, increasing conflicts and wars among rival groups for diminishing resources of expanding populations, famines, etc. etc. This would ultimately lead not to global population expansion of Malthusian proportions but actually global population stagnation or even shrinkage. If human population increases ‘beyond’ nature’s ability to ‘cope’, ‘nature’ has so-called ‘cruel’ means to decimate populations to maintain equilibrium. So, I think….BEFORE we can reach such a scenario you envisage, a majority of mankind would have self-destruct. New civilizations might grow but I don’t think it will be in the Arctic or Antarctic. With low, below-replacement TFRs of Russians, Europeans, Koreans, Japanese and Chinese…..they won’t be able to stop desperate migrants from the south who certainly will be ruthless and murderous(because they are desperate) and IN MORE NUMBERS(due to higher TFRs in the south, even though many would have perished) …so I think if your scenario happens, the Northerners are the ones who will be extinct(by being subjugated and forced to abandon their ethnic identities as southern nationalities swarm the north).
    3.) If your scenario emerges in 3000AD, human civilizations will be FAR LESS advanced than today and far less populated by today—-probably numbering by the millions and not even hundreds of millions. Why? Because most would be decimated and annihilated way before that 3000AD scenario. Also, the ‘belt of livability’ you envisage will not be able to take in BILLIONS of humans. A much reduced land mass is one. The quality of soil that can be used for agriculture in those areas are inferior yielding less than present agricultural land. Probably life-stock might survive but will not be sufficient to feed hundreds of millions. Also, even though temperature rises to BALMY tropical climes in Arctic shores(which I seriously doubt will ever take place), darkness(due to high latitudes) still encompass most months of the year rendering such places hostile to agriculture on a grand scale to feed millions…what more billions of people.

    Websites of some AGW skeptics.

    http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.3762.pdf

    http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html

    http://joannenova.com.au/2011/03/new-here-the-ten-second-guide-to-the-world-of-skeptics/

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/

    Some dissenting views is always good for the soul. ;)

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Grains, vegetables, dairy, meats, fruit, etc... including whatever survives the acidic oceans, though it probably won't be too palatable to the taste. ;)

    Jellyfish. Ocean acidification is leaving the oceans populated by Jellyfish. The Chinese and Japanese are already trying to eat them as fish stocks dissapear and jellyfish overpopulate in hordes.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/jul/08/jellyfish-overfishing-ocean-acidification

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • AK, this was a pretty cool post. It would make a good basis for a great science fiction novel or movie. Definitely more realistic than that awful “2012″ movie that I saw (for the first time) on HBO about two weeks ago.

    In my version of this dystopian novel “3000 AD,” our heroes are several families trying to flee the northern hemisphere which is about to tilt into a full-blown war fought with bio-weapons (civilization having lost the ability to produce nukes). Small pox is back, having been released in the late 21st century in the World War III by the remnants of the USA, Russia, China and North Korea, all of whom had the virus stored in secret vaults. Since no vaccine was available, more than 80% of the world’s population died. But the new bioweapon is some variation of ebola.

    Trying to make it to the southern hemisphere proves challenging, given the large zone of inhabitability surrounding the equator. Only possibility to cross the equator is at high altitude, or underwater – not sure which one I’d choose. Remember that much of modern technology has been lost, though there are remnants,

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    That sounds like an interesting scenario.

    Incidentally, one of my long-term ambitions DOES the writing of a speculative fiction series set in the kind of Arctic world depicted in the post.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @yalensis
    Well, I just don't see how humans could survive at all if the oceans were dead. No seafood? What are we supposed to eat? Bugs?

    Grains, vegetables, dairy, meats, fruit, etc… including whatever survives the acidic oceans, though it probably won’t be too palatable to the taste. ;)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mark Sleboda/the Scythian
    Jellyfish. Ocean acidification is leaving the oceans populated by Jellyfish. The Chinese and Japanese are already trying to eat them as fish stocks dissapear and jellyfish overpopulate in hordes.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/jul/08/jellyfish-overfishing-ocean-acidification
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Most sea creatures will die because of ocean acidification. So islands, which traditionally rely on a lot of sea-food, will play a largely marginal role.

    On land, there will also be a lot of extinctions. Those species that have nowhere to go (e.g. polar bears) will go extinct. Other flora and fauna shift their zones of habitation north, assuming that they can keep pace with the warming.

    But there may be some new species, e.g. whatever remains of the results of 21st century bioengineered constructs.

    Well, I just don’t see how humans could survive at all if the oceans were dead. No seafood? What are we supposed to eat? Bugs?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Grains, vegetables, dairy, meats, fruit, etc... including whatever survives the acidic oceans, though it probably won't be too palatable to the taste. ;)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Hmmmm…..

    Interesting and futuristic but I would not dare foresee so far.
    Also:-
    1.) I don’t know(and hence do not believe completely) that global warming is wholly or even primarily anthropogenic, although that’s supposedly a consensus opinion. That there is ‘global climatic change’ is not deniable but I don’t think that scientists really know the complex dynamics of the earth’s climate to state confident predictions. I’d be non-committal with regards to human activities contributing primarily to global warming.
    2.)Even if it’s true that global warming is due to human activities, I think we are at higher likelihood of destroying our current civilizations in nuclear wars and annihilating a significant proportion of humanity before we reach the 3000AD world you envisage. Moreover, there is a possibility of new plagues(i.e. new infectious diseases) killing of a significant proportion of the world population as well. A decimated human population would reduce global warming if it’s true that such is due mostly from human activities. Influenza virus A antigenic shift is just one example who a new virus strain can cause pandemics. As humans encroach forests, they will encounter previously unknown pathogens. When pathogens ‘jump species host’, the disease would be severe and usually fatal… eg. Nipahvirus of the henipavirus family and SARS virus of the coronavirus family(in the past human coronaviruses were not thought to give rise to fatal disease[human coronaviruses are one group of viruses causing 'common cold' apart from the rhinoviruses and adenoviruses]) Imagine if it’s air-borne like SARS and as highly contagious as rhinoviruses. It’s interesting to note that we have synthesized many anti-bacterial compounds but our armamentarium against viruses(save for certain influenza viruses, HIV, hepadnaviridae, Hepatitis C etc.) are few. We are not ready if an emergent virus were to emerge in which a majority of mankind has no innate resistance. Populations in less developed nations will be greatly destroyed and the advanced nations would have their health systems saturated – though I’d expect more survivors there.

    sinotibetan

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @yalensis
    Quick question: what about plants and animal species of land and ocean? Which will survive, etc.?

    Most sea creatures will die because of ocean acidification. So islands, which traditionally rely on a lot of sea-food, will play a largely marginal role.

    On land, there will also be a lot of extinctions. Those species that have nowhere to go (e.g. polar bears) will go extinct. Other flora and fauna shift their zones of habitation north, assuming that they can keep pace with the warming.

    But there may be some new species, e.g. whatever remains of the results of 21st century bioengineered constructs.

    Read More
    • Replies: @yalensis
    Well, I just don't see how humans could survive at all if the oceans were dead. No seafood? What are we supposed to eat? Bugs?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Ross
    Very interesting! Although, more interested to see the world configured in 2100, than 3000. In fact, I think many of the hypothesis you make re: a polar world will be evident in another three or four decades.

    Thanks! I kind of did that in this post. ;)

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Very interesting! Although, more interested to see the world configured in 2100, than 3000. In fact, I think many of the hypothesis you make re: a polar world will be evident in another three or four decades.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks! I kind of did that in this post. ;)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Quick question: what about plants and animal species of land and ocean? Which will survive, etc.?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Most sea creatures will die because of ocean acidification. So islands, which traditionally rely on a lot of sea-food, will play a largely marginal role.

    On land, there will also be a lot of extinctions. Those species that have nowhere to go (e.g. polar bears) will go extinct. Other flora and fauna shift their zones of habitation north, assuming that they can keep pace with the warming.

    But there may be some new species, e.g. whatever remains of the results of 21st century bioengineered constructs.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • This is a reprint of a post from Arctic Progress. This is a TRANSLATION of an article by Jules Dufour published September 7th, 2010 at Mondialisation.ca ("Le Canada: un plan national pour la militarisation de l'Arctique et de ses ressources stratégiques"). In my opinion its a tad too alarmist over the scope of Canada's military...
  • @Yalensis
    Ha ha! Medvedev pole-dancing at North Pole with Santa Claus? Is good one.

    I was referring to a popular stripper (oops, I mean exotic dancer) routine which involves a small plexiglas shower stall, but if you want to involve Santa, it’s OK with me.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mark
    Again, I wouldn't read too much into what politicians say. You know and I know that nobody is interested in colonizing the North Pole, which is unlikely to become a welcoming habitat even during the lives of our grandchildren regardless how the planet warms. Governments are interested in energy assets, and if there are no appreciable mineral or energy assets at the pole as you claim, they'll lose interest quickly. Canada's interest lies with the Northwest Passage, and the challenger there is the USA, not Russia.

    There is never a trace of foam on my mouth where Russia is concerned, and if you think every press piece reflects what the citizenry actually thinks or is saying, you are probably a big fan of Novaya Gazeta. Medvedev can pole-dance in the shower at the North Pole for all I care. Canadians are easily as sensible as a group as Russians are, and if there's evidence that something doesn't belong to us, you won't hear us yelling, "who cares, let's just take it anyway". You've got us confused with someone else.

    Ha ha! Medvedev pole-dancing at North Pole with Santa Claus? Is good one.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mark
    I was referring to a popular stripper (oops, I mean exotic dancer) routine which involves a small plexiglas shower stall, but if you want to involve Santa, it's OK with me.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @kirill
    A good map of the Arctic Ocean bathymetry can be downloaded from:

    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/maps/

    How is planting a flag at the north pole a "violation of Canada's sovereignty"? The north pole is as far from Canadian shores as it is from Russian shores and outside the economic limits of both (in both cases nearest islands). Canada cannot possibly claim the whole of the Lomonosov Ridge. The best it can hope for under the treaty ("law") is the portion that spans from the its shelf to the pole.

    Better to stop all the foaming at the mouth about "violations of Canadian sovereignty by Russians". The north pole is not the North West Passage.

    Again, I wouldn’t read too much into what politicians say. You know and I know that nobody is interested in colonizing the North Pole, which is unlikely to become a welcoming habitat even during the lives of our grandchildren regardless how the planet warms. Governments are interested in energy assets, and if there are no appreciable mineral or energy assets at the pole as you claim, they’ll lose interest quickly. Canada’s interest lies with the Northwest Passage, and the challenger there is the USA, not Russia.

    There is never a trace of foam on my mouth where Russia is concerned, and if you think every press piece reflects what the citizenry actually thinks or is saying, you are probably a big fan of Novaya Gazeta. Medvedev can pole-dance in the shower at the North Pole for all I care. Canadians are easily as sensible as a group as Russians are, and if there’s evidence that something doesn’t belong to us, you won’t hear us yelling, “who cares, let’s just take it anyway”. You’ve got us confused with someone else.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Yalensis
    Ha ha! Medvedev pole-dancing at North Pole with Santa Claus? Is good one.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I agree it's an unfair article to Canada. The main reason I translated it was (1) to get some practice with French and (2) because of its good maps.

    BTW. Your opinion, if you don't mind, Mark. While it may seem far-fetched today, a time may come when much of the US west of the Mississippi becomes too dry and water-depleted to maintain its status as a grain-basket, and when its hydrocarbon resources dwindle while it no longer has the foreign currency or military power to import them from abroad. At the same time, Canada would probably be doing much better, per capita, thanks to the opening of its Arctic regions. Do you think the US would accept power and population gradually tilting to its northern neighbor peacefully, or will it try to somehow incorporate Canada beforehand?

    I don’t think it’s far-fetched at all, and with a bushel-basketful of global warming deniers struggling for the reins of power, it might happen sooner than many think.

    Up until the time of MacKenzie King’s first kick at being Prime Minister (he had three shots at it in all, finishing up the last one in 1948), it appeared Canada was going to be the dominant North American power anyway, as its population growth was more rapid and its industrial base better developed. I don’t know what happened; perhaps that coincided with the invention of draft beer, or we became otherwise distracted, but the USA blew past us without so much as a “see ya!!” and never looked back. To answer your question with a qualification, it would depend largely on the political group in power in both countries at the hour of realization. There have been many tentative initiatives toward merging the two countries in some fashion and treating their assets as common to both, but all have died a miserable death thus far. Canadians are not interested in being Americans, many Americans don’t know there’s another country to the North, and those who do think, “Don’t flatter yourself”, as they believe there’s nobody on earth who wouldn’t jump at the chance to be an American. To be fair, there are a lot who would.

    The Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE; as you’ve probably guessed, they are leading Canadian businessmen who would sell their mothers into prostitution if enough money was offered) is quite prepared to raffle off the entire country to the highest bidder in order to line their own pockets, and never tires of telling us how alike we are already. But most Canadians are not ready for it, and most Americans don’t see any need for it.

    The USA is a polite country, and I’m sure that even if the situation grew pressing, they’d exhaust every polite proposal before using force. But I don’t believe they’d shrink from anything if it was a matter of survival. We wouldn’t, either. The difference is that the USA has the military muscle to do it.

    I didn’t realize you could speak French. Well done!

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @kirill
    Poor dear, I must have hit a nerve. Before spouting phony indignation, Mark, look at the economic zone map of the Arctic basin and tell me where there is any claim Canada has on Siberian shelf waters. The Lomonosov Ridge (I wonder why it's not called Johnny Canuck Ridge) is an irrelevant side show. The waters around the north pole are deep and devoid of fossil fuel reserves.

    There is little shelf extension from the Canadian archipelago and Russia does not even claim anything in the Canadian sector of the basin (origin at the pole). It is only the Harper neocon kooks who see the north pole and the Russian Arctic basin sector as native Canadian territory. But facts are clearly of no interest to you, Mark.

    I didn’t vote for Harper – well, of course you don’t vote for the Prime Minister, who is the head of his party, but I didn’t vote conservative and in general don’t support their policies. That said, Harper has provided Canada with good governance overall, and anything he says on the Arctic probably reflects what he thinks the majority want him to say rather than a personal opinion.

    No, you didn’t hit a nerve; I could care less what you think. I love my country, as I imagine you do yours, and simply thought you could express your opinions more politely. If you don’t know how to do that or feel no motivation to do so, by all means rock on.

    To the very best of my knowledge, nobody is pushing Harper to lay claim to waters or seabed that is clearly Russian. Where are you reading all this threatening talk? Canada accepts the decisions handed down by the UN using the Law of the Sea as a standard.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @kirill
    A good map of the Arctic Ocean bathymetry can be downloaded from:

    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/maps/

    How is planting a flag at the north pole a "violation of Canada's sovereignty"? The north pole is as far from Canadian shores as it is from Russian shores and outside the economic limits of both (in both cases nearest islands). Canada cannot possibly claim the whole of the Lomonosov Ridge. The best it can hope for under the treaty ("law") is the portion that spans from the its shelf to the pole.

    Better to stop all the foaming at the mouth about "violations of Canadian sovereignty by Russians". The north pole is not the North West Passage.

    Hey, guys, let’s not fight! Better for Russia and Canada to form loose alliance against U.S. encroachments. Canadians and Russians are more civilized, in that they know how to bargain and compromise, taking others’ views and interests into account. Americans simply take what they want.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mark
    Ha, ha!!! Alarmist?? I guess so. Jules Dufour makes Canada sound like some kind of bloodthirsty militaristic empire-builder, without any consideration that Canada's sovereignty concerns focus on its southern neighbour every bit as much as any other suitor for Northern prizes. The USA would dearly love to have control over the Northwest Passage, which Canada claims as a national waterway. American icebreakers and submarines regularly use Arctic routes without the courtesy of asking permission, in a gambit to establish the region as international, even though permission would surely be granted if asked. In my opinion, Canada is far less concerned over Russia's claims than it is for those of the U.S., Kirill's insulting remarks notwithstanding.

    Canada's CF-18 Hornet fleet was acquired starting in 1982, and the newest plane is 12 years old. Of the original purchase of 128, only about 80 remain operational, and the funny thing about military procurement is that the longer you wait to replace something, the more it costs to do so. Canada has been invested in the F-35 since the system development stage, and the tentative committment to the airframe as a CF-18 replacement goes back at least to 2006, if not further.

    The Canadian public has consistently stated a majority interest in a strong and proportional national defense to guard the nation's sovereignty - those who would paint it an empire-builder would do well to review the list of coalition partners for the invasion of Iraq. Announcement of new military purchases does not have to be made on the down-low, to avoid a public outcry, because the public supports the government in this regard. The public has pushed successive governments for years to take some action on Arctic sovereignty before the U.S. just says, "I'll take that, thank you" and leaves us wondering what the hell happened. It is only the accelerated viability of the Northwest passage, together with its shortening of trade routes by some 4000 miles, that has brought this to a head.

    Canada and Russia agreed last September to resolve the dispute over territorial limits according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which says that limits may be extended based on countries proving their continental shelf extends into presumed territorial limits. If that's the way it shakes out and the Lomonosov Ridge makes more seabed Russian territory, fine. That's the law. But be careful what you wish for, Kirill - you might want to take a look at whose seabeds might impact Russia in a manner you didn't anticipate.

    A good map of the Arctic Ocean bathymetry can be downloaded from:

    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/maps/

    How is planting a flag at the north pole a “violation of Canada’s sovereignty”? The north pole is as far from Canadian shores as it is from Russian shores and outside the economic limits of both (in both cases nearest islands). Canada cannot possibly claim the whole of the Lomonosov Ridge. The best it can hope for under the treaty (“law”) is the portion that spans from the its shelf to the pole.

    Better to stop all the foaming at the mouth about “violations of Canadian sovereignty by Russians”. The north pole is not the North West Passage.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Yalensis
    Hey, guys, let's not fight! Better for Russia and Canada to form loose alliance against U.S. encroachments. Canadians and Russians are more civilized, in that they know how to bargain and compromise, taking others' views and interests into account. Americans simply take what they want.
    , @Mark
    Again, I wouldn't read too much into what politicians say. You know and I know that nobody is interested in colonizing the North Pole, which is unlikely to become a welcoming habitat even during the lives of our grandchildren regardless how the planet warms. Governments are interested in energy assets, and if there are no appreciable mineral or energy assets at the pole as you claim, they'll lose interest quickly. Canada's interest lies with the Northwest Passage, and the challenger there is the USA, not Russia.

    There is never a trace of foam on my mouth where Russia is concerned, and if you think every press piece reflects what the citizenry actually thinks or is saying, you are probably a big fan of Novaya Gazeta. Medvedev can pole-dance in the shower at the North Pole for all I care. Canadians are easily as sensible as a group as Russians are, and if there's evidence that something doesn't belong to us, you won't hear us yelling, "who cares, let's just take it anyway". You've got us confused with someone else.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mark
    Ha, ha!!! Alarmist?? I guess so. Jules Dufour makes Canada sound like some kind of bloodthirsty militaristic empire-builder, without any consideration that Canada's sovereignty concerns focus on its southern neighbour every bit as much as any other suitor for Northern prizes. The USA would dearly love to have control over the Northwest Passage, which Canada claims as a national waterway. American icebreakers and submarines regularly use Arctic routes without the courtesy of asking permission, in a gambit to establish the region as international, even though permission would surely be granted if asked. In my opinion, Canada is far less concerned over Russia's claims than it is for those of the U.S., Kirill's insulting remarks notwithstanding.

    Canada's CF-18 Hornet fleet was acquired starting in 1982, and the newest plane is 12 years old. Of the original purchase of 128, only about 80 remain operational, and the funny thing about military procurement is that the longer you wait to replace something, the more it costs to do so. Canada has been invested in the F-35 since the system development stage, and the tentative committment to the airframe as a CF-18 replacement goes back at least to 2006, if not further.

    The Canadian public has consistently stated a majority interest in a strong and proportional national defense to guard the nation's sovereignty - those who would paint it an empire-builder would do well to review the list of coalition partners for the invasion of Iraq. Announcement of new military purchases does not have to be made on the down-low, to avoid a public outcry, because the public supports the government in this regard. The public has pushed successive governments for years to take some action on Arctic sovereignty before the U.S. just says, "I'll take that, thank you" and leaves us wondering what the hell happened. It is only the accelerated viability of the Northwest passage, together with its shortening of trade routes by some 4000 miles, that has brought this to a head.

    Canada and Russia agreed last September to resolve the dispute over territorial limits according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which says that limits may be extended based on countries proving their continental shelf extends into presumed territorial limits. If that's the way it shakes out and the Lomonosov Ridge makes more seabed Russian territory, fine. That's the law. But be careful what you wish for, Kirill - you might want to take a look at whose seabeds might impact Russia in a manner you didn't anticipate.

    Poor dear, I must have hit a nerve. Before spouting phony indignation, Mark, look at the economic zone map of the Arctic basin and tell me where there is any claim Canada has on Siberian shelf waters. The Lomonosov Ridge (I wonder why it’s not called Johnny Canuck Ridge) is an irrelevant side show. The waters around the north pole are deep and devoid of fossil fuel reserves.

    There is little shelf extension from the Canadian archipelago and Russia does not even claim anything in the Canadian sector of the basin (origin at the pole). It is only the Harper neocon kooks who see the north pole and the Russian Arctic basin sector as native Canadian territory. But facts are clearly of no interest to you, Mark.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mark
    I didn't vote for Harper - well, of course you don't vote for the Prime Minister, who is the head of his party, but I didn't vote conservative and in general don't support their policies. That said, Harper has provided Canada with good governance overall, and anything he says on the Arctic probably reflects what he thinks the majority want him to say rather than a personal opinion.

    No, you didn't hit a nerve; I could care less what you think. I love my country, as I imagine you do yours, and simply thought you could express your opinions more politely. If you don't know how to do that or feel no motivation to do so, by all means rock on.

    To the very best of my knowledge, nobody is pushing Harper to lay claim to waters or seabed that is clearly Russian. Where are you reading all this threatening talk? Canada accepts the decisions handed down by the UN using the Law of the Sea as a standard.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mark
    Ha, ha!!! Alarmist?? I guess so. Jules Dufour makes Canada sound like some kind of bloodthirsty militaristic empire-builder, without any consideration that Canada's sovereignty concerns focus on its southern neighbour every bit as much as any other suitor for Northern prizes. The USA would dearly love to have control over the Northwest Passage, which Canada claims as a national waterway. American icebreakers and submarines regularly use Arctic routes without the courtesy of asking permission, in a gambit to establish the region as international, even though permission would surely be granted if asked. In my opinion, Canada is far less concerned over Russia's claims than it is for those of the U.S., Kirill's insulting remarks notwithstanding.

    Canada's CF-18 Hornet fleet was acquired starting in 1982, and the newest plane is 12 years old. Of the original purchase of 128, only about 80 remain operational, and the funny thing about military procurement is that the longer you wait to replace something, the more it costs to do so. Canada has been invested in the F-35 since the system development stage, and the tentative committment to the airframe as a CF-18 replacement goes back at least to 2006, if not further.

    The Canadian public has consistently stated a majority interest in a strong and proportional national defense to guard the nation's sovereignty - those who would paint it an empire-builder would do well to review the list of coalition partners for the invasion of Iraq. Announcement of new military purchases does not have to be made on the down-low, to avoid a public outcry, because the public supports the government in this regard. The public has pushed successive governments for years to take some action on Arctic sovereignty before the U.S. just says, "I'll take that, thank you" and leaves us wondering what the hell happened. It is only the accelerated viability of the Northwest passage, together with its shortening of trade routes by some 4000 miles, that has brought this to a head.

    Canada and Russia agreed last September to resolve the dispute over territorial limits according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which says that limits may be extended based on countries proving their continental shelf extends into presumed territorial limits. If that's the way it shakes out and the Lomonosov Ridge makes more seabed Russian territory, fine. That's the law. But be careful what you wish for, Kirill - you might want to take a look at whose seabeds might impact Russia in a manner you didn't anticipate.

    I agree it’s an unfair article to Canada. The main reason I translated it was (1) to get some practice with French and (2) because of its good maps.

    BTW. Your opinion, if you don’t mind, Mark. While it may seem far-fetched today, a time may come when much of the US west of the Mississippi becomes too dry and water-depleted to maintain its status as a grain-basket, and when its hydrocarbon resources dwindle while it no longer has the foreign currency or military power to import them from abroad. At the same time, Canada would probably be doing much better, per capita, thanks to the opening of its Arctic regions. Do you think the US would accept power and population gradually tilting to its northern neighbor peacefully, or will it try to somehow incorporate Canada beforehand?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mark
    I don't think it's far-fetched at all, and with a bushel-basketful of global warming deniers struggling for the reins of power, it might happen sooner than many think.

    Up until the time of MacKenzie King's first kick at being Prime Minister (he had three shots at it in all, finishing up the last one in 1948), it appeared Canada was going to be the dominant North American power anyway, as its population growth was more rapid and its industrial base better developed. I don't know what happened; perhaps that coincided with the invention of draft beer, or we became otherwise distracted, but the USA blew past us without so much as a "see ya!!" and never looked back. To answer your question with a qualification, it would depend largely on the political group in power in both countries at the hour of realization. There have been many tentative initiatives toward merging the two countries in some fashion and treating their assets as common to both, but all have died a miserable death thus far. Canadians are not interested in being Americans, many Americans don't know there's another country to the North, and those who do think, "Don't flatter yourself", as they believe there's nobody on earth who wouldn't jump at the chance to be an American. To be fair, there are a lot who would.

    The Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE; as you've probably guessed, they are leading Canadian businessmen who would sell their mothers into prostitution if enough money was offered) is quite prepared to raffle off the entire country to the highest bidder in order to line their own pockets, and never tires of telling us how alike we are already. But most Canadians are not ready for it, and most Americans don't see any need for it.

    The USA is a polite country, and I'm sure that even if the situation grew pressing, they'd exhaust every polite proposal before using force. But I don't believe they'd shrink from anything if it was a matter of survival. We wouldn't, either. The difference is that the USA has the military muscle to do it.

    I didn't realize you could speak French. Well done!

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Ha, ha!!! Alarmist?? I guess so. Jules Dufour makes Canada sound like some kind of bloodthirsty militaristic empire-builder, without any consideration that Canada’s sovereignty concerns focus on its southern neighbour every bit as much as any other suitor for Northern prizes. The USA would dearly love to have control over the Northwest Passage, which Canada claims as a national waterway. American icebreakers and submarines regularly use Arctic routes without the courtesy of asking permission, in a gambit to establish the region as international, even though permission would surely be granted if asked. In my opinion, Canada is far less concerned over Russia’s claims than it is for those of the U.S., Kirill’s insulting remarks notwithstanding.

    Canada’s CF-18 Hornet fleet was acquired starting in 1982, and the newest plane is 12 years old. Of the original purchase of 128, only about 80 remain operational, and the funny thing about military procurement is that the longer you wait to replace something, the more it costs to do so. Canada has been invested in the F-35 since the system development stage, and the tentative committment to the airframe as a CF-18 replacement goes back at least to 2006, if not further.

    The Canadian public has consistently stated a majority interest in a strong and proportional national defense to guard the nation’s sovereignty – those who would paint it an empire-builder would do well to review the list of coalition partners for the invasion of Iraq. Announcement of new military purchases does not have to be made on the down-low, to avoid a public outcry, because the public supports the government in this regard. The public has pushed successive governments for years to take some action on Arctic sovereignty before the U.S. just says, “I’ll take that, thank you” and leaves us wondering what the hell happened. It is only the accelerated viability of the Northwest passage, together with its shortening of trade routes by some 4000 miles, that has brought this to a head.

    Canada and Russia agreed last September to resolve the dispute over territorial limits according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which says that limits may be extended based on countries proving their continental shelf extends into presumed territorial limits. If that’s the way it shakes out and the Lomonosov Ridge makes more seabed Russian territory, fine. That’s the law. But be careful what you wish for, Kirill – you might want to take a look at whose seabeds might impact Russia in a manner you didn’t anticipate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I agree it's an unfair article to Canada. The main reason I translated it was (1) to get some practice with French and (2) because of its good maps.

    BTW. Your opinion, if you don't mind, Mark. While it may seem far-fetched today, a time may come when much of the US west of the Mississippi becomes too dry and water-depleted to maintain its status as a grain-basket, and when its hydrocarbon resources dwindle while it no longer has the foreign currency or military power to import them from abroad. At the same time, Canada would probably be doing much better, per capita, thanks to the opening of its Arctic regions. Do you think the US would accept power and population gradually tilting to its northern neighbor peacefully, or will it try to somehow incorporate Canada beforehand?

    , @kirill
    Poor dear, I must have hit a nerve. Before spouting phony indignation, Mark, look at the economic zone map of the Arctic basin and tell me where there is any claim Canada has on Siberian shelf waters. The Lomonosov Ridge (I wonder why it's not called Johnny Canuck Ridge) is an irrelevant side show. The waters around the north pole are deep and devoid of fossil fuel reserves.

    There is little shelf extension from the Canadian archipelago and Russia does not even claim anything in the Canadian sector of the basin (origin at the pole). It is only the Harper neocon kooks who see the north pole and the Russian Arctic basin sector as native Canadian territory. But facts are clearly of no interest to you, Mark.

    , @kirill
    A good map of the Arctic Ocean bathymetry can be downloaded from:

    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/maps/

    How is planting a flag at the north pole a "violation of Canada's sovereignty"? The north pole is as far from Canadian shores as it is from Russian shores and outside the economic limits of both (in both cases nearest islands). Canada cannot possibly claim the whole of the Lomonosov Ridge. The best it can hope for under the treaty ("law") is the portion that spans from the its shelf to the pole.

    Better to stop all the foaming at the mouth about "violations of Canadian sovereignty by Russians". The north pole is not the North West Passage.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anatoly, I would be curious to know your opinion of the recent NATO Lisbon summit. Plus or minus for Russia? I was thinking Russia should have boycotted. But for some reason I have not been able to find much analysis, except for the superficial stuff.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @jooohn
    off-topic but I thought y'all might be interested in this -

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205021134076.htm
    "The BRIC Debate: Drop Russia, Add Indonesia?"

    I read that article and on my Twitter feed I wrote: “Indonesia is basically India but four times smaller (in economic and power terms)” and “being an equatorial archipelago isn’t a good idea on a warming planet.”

    It’s entirely possible that for some periods of time the Indonesian stock market will grow faster than the RTS (which is important for the investors for international investors), and that its economy will grow faster than Russia’s (that’s to be expected considering that its GDP per capita is five times lower and hence has far more scope for quicker convergence). But Indonesia will almost certainly never be more powerful or influential than Russia, as it’s hugely lagging on practically every metric of development: human capital, industrial production, etc. In comparative terms it’s where Russia was in the 1950′s.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Glossy
    "The quest for maintaining Canadian sovereignty over part of the continental shelf is just a pretext for its militarization."

    They say that as if the two goals can't possibly be related. As if no country has ever actually needed to militarize in order to maintain its sovereignty.

    "A Defense Policy Based on Force" - the horror! How dare anyone imagine that he could ever use force to defend himself! Left-wingers always crack me up.

    OT: Anatoly, have you seen the paper summarizing various nations' performance on school achievement tests that Steve Sailer has just blogged about?

    http://isteve.blogspot.com/2010/11/rindermans-smart-fraction-paper.html

    The authors have converted the data into an IQ-like scale for the means, the 5th and the 95th percentiles. They have data for countries for which I've never seen IQ estimates before, including Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. It's imperfect, but it's something.

    It’s funny how the chihuahua known as Canada is talking trash at Russia over the Arctic. While the CBC bleats about the Duma being a rubber stamp, when Harper acts as a virtual dictator proroguing the Parliament and using his unelected Senate cronies to kill legislation instead of revising it and sending it back to the lower chamber, the fact remains that Canada has diddley squat in terms of Arctic gas and oil reserves. The USGS report, based on geology and not wishful thinking, identifies all the key potential gas and oil zones. Over 70% of them are in Russian economic zone waters, where most of the Arctic basin shelf resides The US has more potential reserves in the Arctic than Canada. There is basically nothing under the Canadian archipelago and there is not much shelf where there could be something that extends from Canadian territory.

    I see a nefarious motive for all the yapping about Russian aircraft and regular activity in the Arctic. A pretext needs to be made for future land grabs from Russia. Get the sheeple all riled up about evil Russians “stealing Canada’s resources” and do all the stealing yourself in the name of goodness.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @donnyess
    The goal of NATO is to make the entire world independent of Russian controlled resources which would deprive the Russian state of badly needed revenue to meet it's obligations. Nuclear war with Putin is currently not an option although they're spending billions of dollars working on that angle too.

    Because the west hates paying a fair price for resources. If you want energy independence then invest is nuclear power instead of cold war theatrics pertaining to Russian fossil fuel reserves.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @jooohn
    off-topic but I thought y'all might be interested in this -

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205021134076.htm
    "The BRIC Debate: Drop Russia, Add Indonesia?"

    Typical collection of neocon talking points. I suppose there is no corruption in the third world country known as Indonesia. Don’t make me laugh. Any article that trots out Khodorkovsky as a dissident martyr is a not worthy of usage as toilet paper.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • You have to revise the 2011 Afghanistan withdrawal. Harper’s regime has reneged on its former commitments and is now claiming the 2014 as the year of pullback. We’ll see in 2014 if Canadian soldiers are going to keep dying and be mutilated for the neocon project.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks for pointing it out.

    It's not the first such effort and doesn't have anything substantially new. Some of the new data is suspect, e.g. Ukraine (93) and Kazakhstan (102) - in reality they should all be quite close to each other, and Russia (97). I'm also disappointed that there's still nothing for India and China. They're extremely important to know if we're analyzing their future prospects.

    The theory that the highest percentile has a disproportionate influence on economic outcomes is not new, but this paper has probably gathered the biggest amount of data evidence in its favor to date. I agree with it - e.g. see Israel, whose IQ is fairly low, but a high variance allows for the presence of the many high IQ people who must play a big role in its hi-tech industry and MIC.

    Yes, unless the engineers involved in the Soviet space and nuclear programs behaved like modern-day Genghis Khans out there on the open steppes, Kazakhstan’s figures look too high. And Kyrgyzstan’s are much too low to be believable (70 mean). There could be sampling and other problems there. I don’t know about Ukraine. For centuries Moscow and St. Petersburg have been skimming talent from Ukraine and from other parts of the Empire/USSR. If that’s repeated for enough generations, it could start to have an effect.

    India would be the toughest one to measure properly. Tens of thousands of groups that have been endogamous for many centuries – that’s myriads of separate, unrelated bell curves. Hard to extrapolate. I wish someone did something like that with the Chinese university entrance exams. I’ve read about the existence of province-specific data there.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • off-topic but I thought y’all might be interested in this –

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205021134076.htm

    “The BRIC Debate: Drop Russia, Add Indonesia?”

    Read More
    • Replies: @kirill
    Typical collection of neocon talking points. I suppose there is no corruption in the third world country known as Indonesia. Don't make me laugh. Any article that trots out Khodorkovsky as a dissident martyr is a not worthy of usage as toilet paper.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I read that article and on my Twitter feed I wrote: "Indonesia is basically India but four times smaller (in economic and power terms)" and "being an equatorial archipelago isn't a good idea on a warming planet."

    It's entirely possible that for some periods of time the Indonesian stock market will grow faster than the RTS (which is important for the investors for international investors), and that its economy will grow faster than Russia's (that's to be expected considering that its GDP per capita is five times lower and hence has far more scope for quicker convergence). But Indonesia will almost certainly never be more powerful or influential than Russia, as it's hugely lagging on practically every metric of development: human capital, industrial production, etc. In comparative terms it's where Russia was in the 1950's.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Glossy
    "The quest for maintaining Canadian sovereignty over part of the continental shelf is just a pretext for its militarization."

    They say that as if the two goals can't possibly be related. As if no country has ever actually needed to militarize in order to maintain its sovereignty.

    "A Defense Policy Based on Force" - the horror! How dare anyone imagine that he could ever use force to defend himself! Left-wingers always crack me up.

    OT: Anatoly, have you seen the paper summarizing various nations' performance on school achievement tests that Steve Sailer has just blogged about?

    http://isteve.blogspot.com/2010/11/rindermans-smart-fraction-paper.html

    The authors have converted the data into an IQ-like scale for the means, the 5th and the 95th percentiles. They have data for countries for which I've never seen IQ estimates before, including Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. It's imperfect, but it's something.

    Thanks for pointing it out.

    It’s not the first such effort and doesn’t have anything substantially new. Some of the new data is suspect, e.g. Ukraine (93) and Kazakhstan (102) – in reality they should all be quite close to each other, and Russia (97). I’m also disappointed that there’s still nothing for India and China. They’re extremely important to know if we’re analyzing their future prospects.

    The theory that the highest percentile has a disproportionate influence on economic outcomes is not new, but this paper has probably gathered the biggest amount of data evidence in its favor to date. I agree with it – e.g. see Israel, whose IQ is fairly low, but a high variance allows for the presence of the many high IQ people who must play a big role in its hi-tech industry and MIC.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    Yes, unless the engineers involved in the Soviet space and nuclear programs behaved like modern-day Genghis Khans out there on the open steppes, Kazakhstan's figures look too high. And Kyrgyzstan's are much too low to be believable (70 mean). There could be sampling and other problems there. I don't know about Ukraine. For centuries Moscow and St. Petersburg have been skimming talent from Ukraine and from other parts of the Empire/USSR. If that's repeated for enough generations, it could start to have an effect.

    India would be the toughest one to measure properly. Tens of thousands of groups that have been endogamous for many centuries - that's myriads of separate, unrelated bell curves. Hard to extrapolate. I wish someone did something like that with the Chinese university entrance exams. I've read about the existence of province-specific data there.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The goal of NATO is to make the entire world independent of Russian controlled resources which would deprive the Russian state of badly needed revenue to meet it’s obligations. Nuclear war with Putin is currently not an option although they’re spending billions of dollars working on that angle too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @kirill
    Because the west hates paying a fair price for resources. If you want energy independence then invest is nuclear power instead of cold war theatrics pertaining to Russian fossil fuel reserves.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • “The quest for maintaining Canadian sovereignty over part of the continental shelf is just a pretext for its militarization.”

    They say that as if the two goals can’t possibly be related. As if no country has ever actually needed to militarize in order to maintain its sovereignty.

    “A Defense Policy Based on Force” – the horror! How dare anyone imagine that he could ever use force to defend himself! Left-wingers always crack me up.

    OT: Anatoly, have you seen the paper summarizing various nations’ performance on school achievement tests that Steve Sailer has just blogged about?

    http://isteve.blogspot.com/2010/11/rindermans-smart-fraction-paper.html

    The authors have converted the data into an IQ-like scale for the means, the 5th and the 95th percentiles. They have data for countries for which I’ve never seen IQ estimates before, including Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. It’s imperfect, but it’s something.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks for pointing it out.

    It's not the first such effort and doesn't have anything substantially new. Some of the new data is suspect, e.g. Ukraine (93) and Kazakhstan (102) - in reality they should all be quite close to each other, and Russia (97). I'm also disappointed that there's still nothing for India and China. They're extremely important to know if we're analyzing their future prospects.

    The theory that the highest percentile has a disproportionate influence on economic outcomes is not new, but this paper has probably gathered the biggest amount of data evidence in its favor to date. I agree with it - e.g. see Israel, whose IQ is fairly low, but a high variance allows for the presence of the many high IQ people who must play a big role in its hi-tech industry and MIC.

    , @kirill
    It's funny how the chihuahua known as Canada is talking trash at Russia over the Arctic. While the CBC bleats about the Duma being a rubber stamp, when Harper acts as a virtual dictator proroguing the Parliament and using his unelected Senate cronies to kill legislation instead of revising it and sending it back to the lower chamber, the fact remains that Canada has diddley squat in terms of Arctic gas and oil reserves. The USGS report, based on geology and not wishful thinking, identifies all the key potential gas and oil zones. Over 70% of them are in Russian economic zone waters, where most of the Arctic basin shelf resides The US has more potential reserves in the Arctic than Canada. There is basically nothing under the Canadian archipelago and there is not much shelf where there could be something that extends from Canadian territory.

    I see a nefarious motive for all the yapping about Russian aircraft and regular activity in the Arctic. A pretext needs to be made for future land grabs from Russia. Get the sheeple all riled up about evil Russians "stealing Canada's resources" and do all the stealing yourself in the name of goodness.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The Arctic is one of the most ignored regions in commentary about global trends. This is unsurprising. The vastnesses of Hyperborea, a semi-mythical world of curdled seas, boreal lights and eternal sunshine, have always been "outside" history. But the fast pace of global warming in recent years is kick-starting Arctic history, bringing with it the...
  • @Mark
    Just as a matter of interest, the highest mountain range on the planet is in this region. The Lomonosov Ridge stretches from Greenland to the New Siberian Islands, but does not appear on many maps because it's underwater. Makes the Rockies look sick. It was discovered by a drifting Soviet ice station in the 1950's.

    Higher than the Andes? I don’t see how that’s possible. Some of the Andes mountains are more than 7km high. The Arctic is only 5km deep at most. Are there any islands jutting out with mountains that high in that region? Would appreciate more info.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.