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    'Trans-Saharan' immigrant camp in Algeria The 21st century will see a surge of emigration from sub-Saharan Africa that will eclipse the one that used to pour out of Europe into the Americas, southern Africa, Siberia, and Australia. Millions upon millions will be claiming new lands for themselves, just like Europeans of another age. The biggest...
  • The black people of Algeria.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/nativealgerian/

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  • Home sweet home in the Scottish borderlands. This was one of the last regions of Britain to be pacified and brought under State control. People lived in fortified homes where the second floor could be reached only by an external ladder that could be pulled up. The stone walls were up to 3 feet thick....
  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says: • Website

    I think you're onto something here. Fascinating insights. I do think male violence (and predatory behavior) has genetic components and perhaps its evolutionary value has been displaced in modern civilized society.

    You'd think boxing and other sports would satisfy some of that aggression–but obviously not. I'd be interested in reading more on this subject.

    BTW–there's all this speculation about whether the Tsarnaevs are jihadi-influenced or not–and I would say yes, but I personally believe ALL shaheedis (Islamist martyrs) are driven by the same force as say, the Columbine shooters: notoriety and the perceived glory of a violent and very public death.

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  • Mangan,

    Depigmentation of European skin is estimated to have occurred 11,000 – 19,000 years ago, see the study by Beleza et al.:
    http://www.utm.utoronto.ca/~parraest/profile/PDF%20files/Beleza-2012(Mol.Biol.Evol.).pdf

    This time frame is well before the arrival of agriculture in Europe, which began about 8,000 years ago in southern Europe and reached northern Europe much later.

    http://www.anth.uconn.edu/faculty/munro/assets/articles/Bogucki1996.pdf

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  • OT, Peter, but I don't see an email address for you. Something that may be of interest.

    http://archaeonova.blogspot.com/2013/05/myths-of-paleo-part-two-pale-skin-in.html

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatfield%E2%80%93McCoy_feud

    "William McCoy, the patriarch of the McCoys, was born in Ireland around 1750 and immigrated to Doe Hill, Virginia.[1][2] The family, led by grandson Randolph "Ole Ran'l" McCoy, lived mostly on the Kentucky side of Tug Fork (a tributary of the Big Sandy River). Of English origin[3] the Hatfields, led by William Anderson "Devil Anse" Hatfield, son of Ephraim and Nancy (Vance) Hatfield, lived mostly on the West Virginia side. Both families were part of the first wave of pioneers who came from Northern Ireland (Ulster), to settle the Tug Valley (also called the Grand Horse Valley)."

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  • Sean says:

    You can't really compare a gene pool that included Quaker converts and Scots Covenanters ( strongly anti-slavery) to Chechin thugs. There are examples of bloodthirsty Ulster 'Scots' such as Lenny Murphy (though his name or appearance suggest non-trivial native Irish ancestry). The native Irish Chechins, than the Scots Irish are. (See Whiteboys and Captain Rock: The Irish Agrarian Rebellion of 1821-1824 for murders and rapes by Irish gangs. In America New York City draft riots; were there criminal gangs of Scots or Scots Irish? No. Were the Scots well thought of in America? No, although Covenanters (from Ayrshire) went to Carolina in 1684, the original version of the Declaration of Independence had a slur on Scots.

    John Witherspoon persuaded Jefferson to have it taken out. Witherspoon had baptized a slave in Beith, which led to a case on the legality of slavery in Scotland. See here and also here.

    Witherspoon (who was from a Covenanting family) was one of the first to set out the Scots varient of French rationalism; an Enlightenment project of convergence to a rational and cosmopolitan universal civilization. The special character of the Scottish school was a pessimism about human nature that harked to Calvinistic beliefs in the flawed nature of man. 'Common Sense' became the became the official ideology in the US. James McCosh

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  • Sean says:

    Re. the Borders. By 1286, Berwick, " was Scotland's most prosperous and developed burgh."

    "[F]inally lost to England in 1482. Based on a peninsular site between the River Tweed and the sea, the settlement was of obvious strategic and commercial importance. Its economic hinterland was rich wool- and grain- producing Teviotdale, returning customs dues of £2,190 in 1286[...] By 1302, however, Berwick seems to have been in a relatively peaceful state and the English burgesses in the town … [were granted royal permission] This revived many of Berwick's previous privileges, including the right to a twice-weekly market on Mondays. The royal officers in the town were ordered not to interfere with the burgesses' administration of their own affairs." (Oxford companion to Scottish history, P.40)

    Review of The Scottish Middle March 1573-1625: Power, Kinship, Allegiance.(2010).

    "In a revisionist approach to early modern Scottish history, she questions the traditional account of rampant violence and ineffectual governance in the Borders. Furthermore, by analyzing the orders during the time of the Union of the Crowns between 1573 and 1625, Groundwater seeks to use
    this survey of the Middle March to “inform a more general history of governance in Scotland as it underwent crucial and long-term change” (p. 4). Groundwater has a wealth of recent Scottish scholarship from which to draw. …have all sought to reinterpret facets of medieval and early modern Scottish history from a Scottish perspective. Making excellent use of this new approach, Groundwater is able to dispel the traditional, Anglocentric view of the Scottish Borders, which assumes them to have been a violent backwater beyond crown control. She shows that, while historians today argue that the English Borders were beyond the influence of the central government … the Middle March was actually closely connected to Edinburgh and was controlled by the Scottish crown through its calculated use of kinship networks and allegiance."

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Jprezy87

    "The middle east *ought* to have very low male-male murder rates through having civilization the longest "

    "Well I didn't say all that lol.."

    Yeah, just me thinking aloud. If the pacification idea is correct then all things being equal the places which have been civilized the longest ought to have been most pacified. Obviously in reality all things aren't equal and you have to take into account churn from various invasions etc but the base idea is there.

    So personally it doesn't surprise me if the middle east has a low murder rate (excepting honor crime type murders which i think have a different engine).

    .
    "relatively high murder rates are found in Iraq .the "cradle of civilization" not to mention that the country has seen some nasty sectarian violence in recent years"

    i think the war and civil war may have something to do with that and for some time to come.

    .
    "the lowest murder rates in the middle east (below 1 per 100 k) are found in the arabian peninsula..an area that was always on the periphery of civilization rather than a center of it. (it was filled with a bunch of warring nomadic tribes before mohammed showed up)"

    Good point. This goes against the theory quite strongly – unless of course the murder rate among the native Arabs themselves is higher but the overall average is lowered by the huge number of non-Arab guest workers also from long-pacified regions?

    Pure guess though.

    .
    I think there's a subconscious idea in hbd circles that because criminal violence in America partially follows a color spectrum that that's the reality outside whereas i don't think that's true at all. I think Europeans were mostly pacified much later than most places but relatively speaking very fast – over centuries rather than millenia creating an unusual pattern.

    and lots of sports.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    First comment (time 02:44 AM EST) seems to have had something happen to it.

    But in brief, I am the first anon, I really did not "change the goal" posts (that was a separate comment by another person).

    The list of murder rates on Wiki is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate and tends to show Arab North African and Arab countries at relatively low intentional homicide rates per 100,000 population: Bahrain 0.6, Oman 0.7, UAE 0.8, Qatar 0.9, Saudia Arabia 1.0, Tunisia 1.1, Egypt 1.2, Morocco 1.4, Algeria 1.5, Libya 2.9.

    Comparative rates for consideration could be: USA 4.8, Thailand 4.8, Taiwan 3.2, South Korea 2.6, Belgium 1.7, Canada 1.6, United Kingdom 1.2, China 1.0, Spain and Germany 0.8, Norway 0.6, Japan 0.4

    Figures are gathered by the UN.

    There might be some systematic undercounting issue that exists in North Africa but does not exist other poor regions like Central Asia, South America, and Africa, all of which show elevated homicide rates relative to Europe and the West.

    Which Americans? White Americans? Black Americans?

    http://anepigone.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/white-murder-rates-by-state.html

    Audacious Epigone: "The national white homicide rate (excluding Florida) is 3.1." (per 100,000)

    http://anepigone.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/black-homicide-rates-by-state.html

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  • "The middle east *ought* to have very low male-male murder rates through having civilization the longest "

    Well I didn't say all that lol..in fact if you look at the chart i linked to relatively high murder rates are found in Iraq .the "cradle of civilization" not to mention that the country has seen some nasty sectarian violence in recent years..the lowest murder rates in the middle east (below 1 per 100 k) are found in the arabian peninsula..an area that was always on the periphery of civilization rather than a center of it. (it was filled with a bunch of warring nomadic tribes before mohammed showed up)

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    "The low crime rate probably has to do with strong social controls and a harsh criminal justice system."

    And a long pacification time.

    The middle east *ought* to have very low male-male murder rates through having civilization the longest – with some compensating moves in the opposite direction due to various invasions and migrations.

    On the other hand i don't believe the stats from those countries when it comes to the murder of females as i think honor type killing have a different motivation and mostly get listed as something other than murder.

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  • "Of course, for actual data about violence there isn't much, present day Algerians have a similar murder rate to Belgians, Slovakians, Greeks and Canadians

    Governments routinely lie about these statistics, and so do you, it seems."

    Here are multiple year averages for murder rates for most of the world's countries

    http://books.google.com/books?id=DsN5glgW0v4C&pg=PA38&dq=bahrain+table+A2+determinants&hl=en&sa=X&ei=SsiAUfO9LoSo8AShyIHIAg&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=bahrain%20table%20A2%20determinants&f=false (sorry dude you're gonna have to copy and paste i dont know how to link lol)

    …the middle east is included..you notice many of them have rates that are just as low as or lower than Western countries. Even putting aside the fact that murder is by far the most accurately reported crime statistic (and thus isn't that prone to manipulation or cover up) the low reported murder rates of many middle eastern countries is backed up the strong feeling of personal safety in those countries
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/144083/latin-americans-least-likely-feel-safe-walking-alone.aspx#2
    (well before the arab spring that is..the poll is from 2010)..Notice how quite a few middle eastern countries are near the top of the list..

    The low crime rate probably has to do with strong social controls and a harsh criminal justice system..

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Of course, for actual data about violence there isn't much, present day Algerians have a similar murder rate to Belgians, Slovakians, Greeks and Canadians

    Governments routinely lie about these statistics, and so do you, it seems.

    Which Canadians? White Canadians, Native American Canadians, Black Canadians, East Asian Canadians (ie, Chinese Japanese and Koreans, not Mongolians?)

    Which Americans? White Americans or Black Americans?

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  • First anon said:

    The Arab region tends to have pretty low murder rates in general compared to Europe or even much of East Asia.

    And then when called on it he changed the goal posts to Central Europe and Mongolia.

    Great integrity there.

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  • JC says:

    Uncanny – on the front page of my local paper today:

    A young killer seen licking his victim's blood after stabbing him has followed in his father's and grandfather's violent footsteps.

    Shayd Robinson, 21, was convicted of murder yesterday for stabbing Aaron Hadfield to death during a road rage attack in January last year.

    His father, Tom Robinson, has also stabbed and killed someone, and his grandfather, Benjamin Robinson, almost killed a man when he shot him in the back during an armed robbery…

    Robinson admitted stabbing Hadfield once but said it was out of panic. It was alleged he licked the knife afterwards and said something like: "Your blood tastes sweet," or "I like the taste of your blood".

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/8618158/Young-killer-follows-in-fathers-footsteps

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  • A lucid, rational and very well-written article. It deserves to be widely read by important people and to start influencing policy in all Western nations. It won't, of course. See the first line of this comment.

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  • Anon, Ulster names search for Ayr. (Ayrshire is spelt different ways on the page). Borders ancestry did exist but by the time the Scots Irish went to the US the Borders genes were a very small proportion of the Scots Irish gene pool.

    'Searching for Scotch-Irish Roots in Scottish Records, 1600-1750' Page x-xi "King James planned an organised settlement of Ulster [...] Many of these landlords, known as "undertakers" originated in the Scottish Lowlands and in the south-west in particular. They in turn , recruited settlers largely from own existing estates…" The main counties in Scotland from which these Scots settlers for ulster were recruited were Kircudenbrightshire Wigtonshore Ayrshire RenfrewshireDumfries-shire and Lancashire. [...] (Map of where the the Landlords came from)

    During the second half of the seventeenth century Scots flowed steadily into Ulster Some arrived as refugees, such as the Covenanters who fled from Scotland during "the killing time," while others arrived to escape the famines that ravaged much of Scotland during the 1690s and a few were Borders reivers escaping justice. "

    Ulster Since 1600: Politics, Economy, and Society (2012) p. 144
    "EMIGRATION AND MIGRATION IN THE EIGHTEENTH CENTURY

    With so much exertion put in to secure parts of Antrim, Down and Londonderry for Scots settlers it is interesting that the firm ground the held acted as a springboard rather than bed, with thousands of their descendants taking part in migrations to the American colonies. Indeed from the 1720s to the 1770's, Ireland- but particularly Ulster – sent almost as many emigrants to the American colonies as England did, Shcholars have noticed that these emigrants included recent immigrants to Ulster as well as those whose families had settled generations earlier. Descendants of English Baptists and Quakers who had first settled Ulster in the seventeenth century, began Ulster migrations to the colonies. These were the forerunners of the great movement of Irish Protestants chiefly Dissenters of Scottish or Irish descent, who dominated Irish emigration."

    The thing about the Scots Irish was they were disproportionately made up of people who were extremely concerned (willing to die and suffer persecution) with abstract systems of ideology (religion) that were not able to be proved or disproved. They weren't a collection of freebooters although they could be could be violent, but they were also willing to die before renouncing their beliefs.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    @anon
    "what could a public official from one of these "still uncivilized" countries, full of "wild humans" do to alter the genetic predispositions of the population? Will sterilization from childhood of children from families with a history of violent behavior help?"

    Leaving aside the various straw men any properly functioning criminal justice system changes the proportion of traits over time by locking up violent criminals who then have fewer children.

    Are you against locking up violent criminals for crimes they commit?

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  • Sean
    "Contrary to what an unsourced assertion on Wikipedia would lead you to believe; hardly any of Scots Irish ancestry was from the Borders."

    Surnames: Armstrong, Nixon etc.

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  • Peter,

    Do you have any opinions on the history and role of fighting in hockey?

    I ask because of your roots in small town Ontario.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    You're talking about corporal punishment of boys by authority figures. I don't see why that should be included with inter-male physical violence and homicide. They're qualitatively different. And corporal punishment of boys by authority figures was common in the West just a few generations ago. It's still common in parts of East Asia that aren't regarded as particularly violent societies.
    Two points. (1) If an American teacher inflicted corporal punishment as a Algerian teacher would, he/she would be guilty of a serious criminal offence.

    Apparently, although not outlawed, period, as in neighbouring Tunisia, in Algeria corporal punishment is “is strictly prohibited in schools, within the family and within all other contexts and institutions” while only actually being outlawed in schools.

    http://www.endcorporalpunishment.org/pages/pdfs/states-reports/Algeria.pdf

    However, whether that is honored would be another question, I suppose. The rule of law is weak, after all.

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  • Glengarry County Ontario was settled by McDonnells who had been terrorising the other clans a generation before. I don't think that violence is inherent to Europeans – unless they have a broad face.

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  • "In 1648, the 'Whiggamore Raid' had ridden out of the West and captured Edinburgh, installing a populist clerical dictatorship (the 'Rule of Saints'). The policies of the 'Saints' were a strange combination of social revolution and fanatical repression; they purged church and state of all 'malignants' and moderates, made local parishes responsible for the relief of the poor and the sick, made church attendance compulsory and encouraged a return to witch hunting [...] In 1666 they tied to repeat their success and a small army of ill armed farmers and ministers set of from Ayrshire once again… At Rullion Green they were defeated and massacred."
    As dissidents : ‘”WE were indeed amazed to see a poor commonality able to argue on points of government and on the bounds to be set on the matters of religion: upon all these topicks they had texts of scripture at hand; and were ready with their answer to any thing that was said to them; this measure of knowledge was spread even among the meanest of them, their cottagers, and their servants. They were, indeed, vain of their knowledge, much conceited of themselves, and were full of a most entangled scrupulosity; so that they found, or made, difficulties in every thing that could be laid before them.”
    (Gilbert Burnet, on the failure of his 1669 mission to calm religious zealotry in south-western Scotland)

    They believed that the 'natural' human being was utterly corrupt, but that God, in an act of predestination before the Fall of Man, had chosen a minority to be saved and redeemed through the entry of divine grace… [...] Earthly rulers were almost certainly reprobate, "

    They and their descendants in America were important supporters of the the American revolution Page 262 -267

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  • Contrary to what an unsourced assertion on Wikipedia would lead you to believe; hardly any of Scots Irish ancestry was from the Borders. See here. Anyway, Dr. Petty (who surveyed Ireland and planned the plantation) estimated that 64,000 British settlers in Ireland had died in the wars between 1641 and 1652. (p52)

    The really sizable plantation began during the reign of Cromwell (who had in 1650 begged American Puritans to settle in Ireland). He wasn't looking for troublemakers who would 'go native' (Cromwell transported many earlier English settlers right along with the Irish rebels for just that reason.) 'Scots Irish' who went to North America were disproportionately from Ulster , and most of their ancestry traces back to South Western Scotland, See here here, here and here. ‘THE southwest has been the Scotland of insurgency – in religion as in politics.’” The period of the plantation of Ulster was in the era of the Covenanters.

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  • Jprezy,

    It's not difficult to dispose of a dead body in some countries, especially if the authorities are not motivated to look for it. Cause of death can also be falsified. A woman can simply fall to her death. That kind of "accident" is very frequent in some countries.

    I don't deny your main point. Male violence is more "channeled" in Algeria than it is in Western countries. When North Africans settle in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, there is typically a relatively low rate of violent crime in the first generation and then a much higher rate in succeeding generations, who are under much weaker social control.

    "And you can't compare corporal punishment to impulsive, violent behavior, especially since the former is meant to act as a deterrent to the latter"

    Two points. (1) If an American teacher inflicted corporal punishment as a Algerian teacher would, he/she would be guilty of a serious criminal offence.
    (2) If someone beats you up for not doing something, isn't that violence meant to deter? Isn't deterrence inherent to much if not most violent behavior?

    Anon,

    My hometown is Pefferlaw, Ontario.

    Jayman,

    Thanks!

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  • "With respect to Algeria, I was referring not only to murder, but also to violent behavior in general. Most acts of violence are not reported in any country, and this is especially so in more traditional countries where people are reluctant to lodge a complaint either out of fear or because they feel that the act of violence is justified."

    True…but murder is going to be reported to the authorities the vast majority of the time because of the seriousness of the offense….plus the fact that it's hard to ignore a dead body ;). That's why the murder rate is the only reliable crime statistic to compare cross-nationally, and other crimes are probably vastly undereported.(this is especially the case in 3rd world countries where police forces are exceptionally incompetent and corrupt).

    And you can't compare corporal punishment to impulsive, violent behavior, especially since the former is meant to act as a deterrent to the latter

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  • Peter, what could a public official from one of these "still uncivilized" countries, full of "wild humans" do to alter the genetic predispositions of the population? Will sterilization from childhood of children from families with a history of violent behavior help?

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    You're talking about corporal punishment of boys by authority figures. I don't see why that should be included with inter-male physical violence and homicide. They're qualitatively different. And corporal punishment of boys by authority figures was common in the West just a few generations ago. It's still common in parts of East Asia that aren't regarded as particularly violent societies.

    It's not clear to me that male violence is restrained in Algeria to the same degree that, say, white male violence is restrained in the US. White male violence in the US is restrained by a hostile legal and prison system that threatens potential white male perpetrators of violence with confinement in integrated prisons where white males are vastly outnumbered by hostile ethnic gangs that threaten them with gang violence, murder, and prison rape. It's just not comparable to corporal punishment.

    I regularly got beat bad growing up. With belts, switches, bats, various blunt objects. It's not that bad at all. It's completely blown out of proportion.

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  • Anon,

    With respect to Algeria, I was referring not only to murder, but also to violent behavior in general. Most acts of violence are not reported in any country, and this is especially so in more traditional countries where people are reluctant to lodge a complaint either out of fear or because they feel that the act of violence is justified.

    This is especially so for violence directed at boys by parents, relatives, and teachers. Assous presents data on this phenomenon, which is not only widespread but also, more importantly, considered to be perfectly legal. Such violence goes far beyond spanking. It typically involves the use of blunt, non-cutting objects: a belt, a pipe, or a wire. It is directed (in order of importance) at the head, arms or legs, belly, and chest. The injuries (in order of importance) take the form of multiple fractures, bruises, burns, scratches, and bites.

    This brings me to another point. Male violence is restrained in Algeria to a degree that would be unimaginable here in the West. When a boy gets out of hand at school, the teacher will beat him. And then his parents will beat him when he gets home.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    "Very critical imo e.g. liberal reaction to riots – they *must* have a grievance – and they do but not neccessarily a remotely reasonable one."

    "So the British enacted the Riot Act because they were simply bloody minded and cared naught for the revolting classes?"

    I don't understand your point.

    I'm saying if there's a violent riot non-violent liberals will look at it and think what level of grievance would i need to have to be as violent as that when the reality is the people rioting need only a very small amount of grievance to be as violent as that.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    What is interesting is the "Genetic Pacification of Medieval Europe" article. According to the chart (given lack of data) homicide rates ranged from 10 – 20 during early middle ages – which itself is not much violent compared to some contemporary countries like Venezuela (67). In 10 – 20 range lie countries like Bahamas, Kazakhstan, Panama.
    I recall some article claiming that most violent times in Europe were between 7k and 5k BC with estimated 10% of all deaths due to homicides. Again, 10% is not so violent for hunter-gatherer tribal societies.
    Europeans seem to have predispositions for (relative) low violence.

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  • Ha ha ha ha ha. That's the funniest thing I have heard all day.

    You seem easily amused by facts.

    ….

    It's more surprising, as well, when you consider the low median ages of these countries –

    after all older people commit fewer crimes, fewer murders.

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  • Ha ha ha ha ha. That's the funniest thing I have heard all day.

    According to this data, the Arab region does have very low homicide rates:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/oct/13/homicide-rates-country-murder-data

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#By_country

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  • The Arab region tends to have pretty low murder rates in general compared to Europe or even much of East Asia.

    Ha ha ha ha ha. That's the funniest thing I have heard all day.

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  • Very critical imo e.g. liberal reaction to riots – they *must* have a grievance – and they do but not neccessarily a remotely reasonable one.

    So the British enacted the Riot Act because they were simply bloody minded and cared naught for the revolting classes?

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  • Peter,

    What was the name of that Scotch-Irish to in central Ontario in which you spent part of your childhood? I'm from Barrie.

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  • Great post! I've added it to my list of "required" HBD reading, a page with all the basic info a newcomer needs to understand HBD (which heavily features your work):

    HBD Fundamentals | JayMan's Blog

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Or Algerians?

    Of course, for actual data about violence there isn't much, present day Algerians have a similar murder rate to Belgians, Slovakians, Greeks and Canadians. The Arab region tends to have pretty low murder rates in general compared to Europe or even much of East Asia. There are some standouts, but they aren't quite as high as the high murder European (largely) descended nations of the Baltics (and the United States, although like South America, there is a slightly less than absolute preponderance of European ancestry).

    Some societies may have had more diffuse punishment regimes, while our own has a group of punishers.

    When I think about police and soldiers, I think that rather than our society necessarily having less punishment, it concentrates it in a smaller group of people.

    So you have a small groups of people, who may be very handsomely reproductively rewarded for their capabilities at violence in a larger society which is less violent, in contrast to other societies, where selection for violent traits may be more diffuse (there's no small group with such a strong reward, but it may be slightly more favored in the average person).

    Of course, our society does not have castes, so "cop" and "gangster" traits (niches which do not really exist in nations with a less generally pacified population) would just get diffused back through the population again.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    But there’s also a difference in kind: the violent male as an independent actor who fights for himself and his immediate family. For “normal” boys in Western society, male violence is legitimate only when done under orders for much larger entities: the home team, the police, the country, NATO … Everywhere else, it is evil, criminal, and pathological.

    Civilization is gay. Well, ultimately it isn't even gay, it's just asexual or haplodiploid at best. But on the way from converting a sexual species — a species made up of individual men and women — it has to mutilate their individuality to mold them into cells. It does this by promoting gayness, and any other perversion of genuine sex (the 600 million year old kind of sex) that is expedient in service of "being part of something greater than ourselves."

    All attempts by civilization to be humane during this transition, such as the secular "Rule of Thumb" or the religions that place the man in authority over their wives and children (actually this was secular as codified in Roman law to the point that he could kill legally kill them) are ultimately to no avail so long as "civilization" is the overriding value.

    At the boundaries between the civil and natural worlds are pseudo-men:

    police (and other "first responders"), soldiers, frontiersmen (cowboys), etc. On these pesudo-men is heaped all the mutilated masculinity of civilization — a granting of temporary, revokable, strings-attached reprieve in limited circumstances. Playing on that pseudo-masculinity was the genius of The Village People.

    Those not sanctioned to have even this multilated masculinity, but who nevertheless exhibit it, are raped in prison.

    I first went to elementary school in a largely English Canadian neighborhood of Scarborough. Schoolyard fights were only occasional, and there was almost always a good reason. My family then moved to a largely Scotch-Irish town in central Ontario. There, the schoolyard fights were a daily occurrence, and they seemed to happen for no reason at all. I eventually found out the reason … something to do with “respect” or rather the lack of it.

    English public schools of course have been associated with buggery.

    There are no common stereotypes regarding Scotch-Irish schools, but if there were, presumably they'd be about fighting rather than buggery.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Excellent imo.

    "We like to think that people everywhere respond to situations more or less as we do. If the response is anger—red boiling anger that can kill—we assume there must be a very good reason. Otherwise, the person wouldn’t be so angry."

    Very critical imo e.g. liberal reaction to riots – they *must* have a grievance – and they do but not neccessarily a remotely reasonable one.

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  • 'Trans-Saharan' immigrant camp in Algeria The 21st century will see a surge of emigration from sub-Saharan Africa that will eclipse the one that used to pour out of Europe into the Americas, southern Africa, Siberia, and Australia. Millions upon millions will be claiming new lands for themselves, just like Europeans of another age. The biggest...
  • Kurt9,

    As we move from farm to urban settlements, As our volume of knowledge piles on, the task of bringing up children becomes exponentially expensive.

    If one can have a super device that would educate your kid in 10 years, enabling him to join workforce by 14, we would have a lot more children.

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  • Kurt9,

    The correlation is very weak. East Asia has fertility rates well below replacement, despite a minimal presence of feminism and a more traditional family-oriented society (at least in comparison to North America and Western Europe). Conversely, in Iceland, feminism is much stronger and most families are 'post-traditional', yet the fertility rate is at or above replacement.

    In any case, natural increase is no longer driving population growth in most Western countries. Immigration is.

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  • Kurt9 says: • Website

    I don't think so.

    Sure we do.

    You know, the correlation between feminism, female empowerment in general, and social liberalism and reduced birthrates is so strong that there are some people who actually believe there is a conspiracy among the elites to promote all of these things for de-population purposes. Often they bandy names about such as the Rockefellers and what not.

    Of course, I don't believe in conspiracy theories. Nevertheless, you have to admit the correlation exists and, if you believe in the limits to growth as you claim you do, must view it as a very positive trend, one that should be encouraged globally.

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  • "It sounds like you and I are in agreement on the social issues."

    I don't think so.

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  • I forgot to mention.

    Another method of reducing birthrates is to promote the acceptance and normalization of homosexuality. I'm an favor of this as well (but for different reasons).

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  • Ultimately, the only way to limit economic growth is to reduce the birthrate as much as possible. Female education and empowerment along with feminism is the best way to do this. Female education and empowerment should be promoted globally, especially in Africa and the Muslim middle-east). Birth control and easy access to abortion on demand should be promoted globally as well. It is silly to oppose any of these things.

    I also think that the bohemian lifestyle should be promoted as well. Bohemian slackers not only tend not to have kids, they tend to consume less while getting more enjoyment out of life. This life style choice ought to be promoted globally as well.

    I have always thought things would be better if the fertility/infertility condition were reversed. Instead of the default condition of fertility and having to take pills or surgery for birth control, the world would be a far better place if this was reversed. Infertility would be the default condition and people would be free to screw all they want. Then when they did want a kid, they take a pill or go to a clinic to become fertile. I have always thought this is the only rational way to resolve the whole sex/abortion/family political brouhaha. I think developing the technology to make this possible should be top priority.

    I believe all of these to be good things independent of any limits to growth. Contrary to what all of the MRA/HBD people say, I really do believe feminism and female empowerment allows for better sex for both genders. I think the MRA/HBD people are stupid to oppose these things.

    It sounds like you and I are in agreement on the social issues.

    Clearly the demand-side limits to growth are real, which we will reach around 2040 or so. I do not subscribe to the supply-side limits to growth, which I think is a political fabrication. More specifically, the supply-side limits are a lot further out than most presume.

    Here's the actual supply-side limits to growth:

    http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/

    BTW, I am a big-time advocate of nuclear power, and I mean big time. I think the anti-nuclear hysteria that began in the 1970's was the most idiotic, ignorant, counter-productive thing that the baby-boomers ever came up with.

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  • "The limits to growth ideology is peddled by those who want to restrict economic freedom and wealth creation. You know this as well as I do."

    No I don't. And evidently neither do you. If you want honest debate, don't presuppose the motives of the people you're arguing with.

    "The U.S. needs, at minimum, 5% annual economic growth."

    You're mistaken if you're talking about the current American population. You're arguably right if you mean the half-billion or so people who will inhabit the U.S. by mid-century — if current trends continue.

    Of course, at that point it's doubtful that the U.S. will be in any position to get what it 'needs.'

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  • You know, the limits to growth problem is self-solving. As you know well, when societies reach a certain level of economic well-being, they have far fewer kids. Japan and Europe are the best known examples of this. When this happens, economic growth levels off because there are fewer people around to buy stuff. So, less stuff gets made.

    Take Japan as example. You see lots of young people in Tokyo. Some of them are career-driven, most of them are bohemian slacker types. Japan has had very little economic growth since the end of their bubble in 1992 because there simply is not the population growth and, hence, demand for that growth. Japanese young people would rather kick back and live the slacker bohemian life rather than work as salary-man slaves like their fathers did. Having lived in and experienced Japanese life day to day, I can certainly agree that this is a rational lifestyle choice for the young people today.

    China will reach this point in 15 years and India will get there in by 2040. The rest of the world (except possibly Sub-Sahara Africa) will go through this demographic transition by 2040, if not before. This means the entire world will be like Japan is today by 2050.

    This should make anyone who believes in the limits to growth meme very happy. Since the actual resource limits to Earth are somewhat beyond this point, around 15 billion people at U.S. standard of living (see www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/), it means that the entire world will become a Europe or Japan-like slacker young peoples' society long before the actually limits are reached and that everything will be fine.

    This is what I tell all of my "limits to growth" friends whenever we have this discussion. Slow population decline is good, because it means not only do the people who want good career-oriented jobs get them, but that each kid gets to inherit the wealth of both parents. If the "one-child" birth rate is norm for all, it means that each generation gets to become twice as wealthy without any additional growth of industrial production and resource consumption.

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  • Peter Frost,

    I'm old enough to remember the limits to growth clap trap from the 1970's. The current stuff is recycled stuff right from the 1970's. It was false then, it is false today. The limits to growth ideology is peddled by those who want to restrict economic freedom and wealth creation. You know this as well as I do.

    I don't think there is any argument that we need lots of economic growth. All net job creation is by small to medium sized growth-oriented companies. By jobs I mean real, career-oriented STEM and other jobs. We need reduced regulation and reduced government power so that such economic and job growth is free to occur.

    The U.S. needs, at minimum, 5% annual economic growth.

    There is no such thing as "too much" economic growth, any more than it is possible to be "too" good-looking or "too" rich.

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  • @Anonymous (April 22, 2010 7:25:00 AM EST)

    Yeah but you will be branded as a "racist" by the World PC Nuremberg Tribunal.

    Besides, business will promote the entry of those immigrants to cut their labour cost (and we all know that nowadays' governments care more about business and economic growth than the people they are supposed to take care of).

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  • Everyone here seems to be missing an obvious point: wouldn't it be rather simple to keep Africans out of countries where they were not wanted, by simply forbidding them to enter?

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  • Kurt9,

    In the 1970s, I remember hearing people talk about how we would have limitless fusion power by the year 2000, how we would have colonies on the moon, how we would live to be over 100, how we would work only four days a week, etc., etc.

    Well, where are the moon colonies? Where is the 4-day week? Where is this future that people like you promised me?

    Reality almost always falls short of our glorious expectations. Yes, it's good to dream, but please don't be delusional.

    We're in for a rough ride. A very rough ride.

    Silver,

    In the past, the Cold War prevented any real 'frank discussion' with Africa. In any case, the 'frank discussion' is just as much for us as it is for them.

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  • Peter Frost said,

    In diplomacy, the answer is called 'frank discussion'. We should be telling certain African states that their current level of population growth is unsustainable and constitutes a threat to world peace.

    The problem is if the past five decades have proven anything it is that Africans are seldom inclined to listen to anybody and even less inclined to act on advice that they do lend an ear to. I don't see how anything short of a return to iron-fisted diplomacy could avert disaster.

    Continuing discussion of concepts like Frank Salter's "EGI" (commonly misused and abused by partisan nationalists) seems to have the effect of hardening people's hearts towards the genetically very distant and, whatever its other risks, may prove the most effective psychological tool in resisting negrification.

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  • No, technological innovation is ALWAYS the solution to any problem, especially resource limitations. There are new nuclear power technologies being developed (thorium reactors, traveling wave reactors) that are being developed with current technology. More speculatively (we will know in another year or so) are the various privately funded efforts to develop fusion power.

    With food production, there is aeroponics as well as the possibility of direct manufacture via biotechnological food factories.

    I can go on and on. The point is that innovation and creative thinking an solve any and all problems. There will never be a problem that innovation cannot solve.

    I believe in growth. We need more growth, not less. Much more growth. Growth creates the technological and financial resources that can be used to solve any problem that may show up up in the future.

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  • @Peter Frost

    That is what I am thinking.

    Instead of caring about the people themselves, authorities only care about economic growth, hoping that it is tantamount to the happiness of the people.

    "Il faut manger pour vivre, et non pas vivre pour manger."

    Molière, l'Avare

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  • The Asian of Reason,

    The problem is that China, like most countries, will be facing not only an oil shortage, but also shortages in most basic commodities, including food. For such a wide-ranging problem, there can never be a magic technological fix.

    One solution is to exploit Africa's resources while hoping that something will happen (new technologies, discovery of unknown resources on the sea floor or in outer space, etc.) to keep us going on our present joy ride.

    More realistically, we should accept a much lower rate of economic growth and use our present resources more efficiently. But that is one thing that our globalist, growth-addicted business community doesn't want to hear.

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  • What happens if/when the East Asian countries with all their techno-centric culture develop synthetic unobtainium and no longer have any need for the natural resources in Africa?

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  • @Peter Frost

    That's why I keep reading your blog ;)

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  • Anon,

    You're undoubtedly referring to Rushton's theory that sub-Saharan Africans are hardwired for an 'r'-type reproductive strategy. I'm frankly skeptical for a number of reasons. For one thing, fertility is now close to replacement throughout most of the West Indies. The same is true for the African-American population. In Cuba, fertility is well below replacement.

    Why, then, are fertility rates still high in sub-Saharan Africa when they are falling everywhere else, including Muslim countries in the Middle East and North Africa that have traditional family values?

    A big reason, I think, is female-dominated subsistence agriculture. In sub-Saharan Africa, women contribute much more than men to food production. They are thus relatively autonomous when it comes to supporting themselves and their children. So it is easier for a woman to begin family formation soon after puberty and to continue family formation even if her mate has died or left her. The high incidence of polygyny also ensures a plentiful supply of male mates.

    This system is breaking down in urban Africa, where fertility rates are much lower.

    Mark,

    African states will try to play China, North America, and Europe against each other in order to get the best prices possible for exports of oil and other resources. In this sense, China will be a great help, at least in the short term. But if nothing changes demographically, the money from resource exports will just be converted into more people. There has to be real social and cultural change, particularly in the status of African women.

    Zlu,

    Truth can be depressing. But it's better to face unpleasant truths than to go on telling ourselves pleasant lies.

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  • How comes that nowadays' facts are always depressing ?

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  • Mark says: • Website

    I think continued Chinese investment in Africa is Africa's best bet at real economic development.

    Some significant countries in sub-Saharan Africa have turned the corner in regard to population growth. South Africa has a comparatively low birth rate (around 2.2 children per woman, I think). Kenya's fertility rate declined substantially over the past thirty years, though that decline stalled at around 3 births per woman, perhaps because of Bush's idiotic decision to completely ignore family planning efforts in favor of HIV prevention (both should be promoted). Obama's move to restore funding for family planning in Kenya might help get things moving again. And Rwanda, though a relatively small country, has seen a tremendous increase in the percentage of women using contraception thanks to government efforts; the fertility rate dropped from 6.1 to 5.5 in only a few years, according to government surveys, and the most recent government survey, though not estimating tfrs, showed a further significant increase in contraceptive use.

    On the other hand, heavy hitters like Nigeria and Ethiopia don't seem to be registering any significant declines.

    I am still optimistic that Chinese development and good leadership (for which Africans do not have a reputation, but there are *some* good leaders on that continent) will lead to some areas of development on that continent that might prove more attractive to emigrants than areas abroad.

    It's instructive that when Zimbabwe collapsed, most economic refugees went next door to South Africa, not places abroad.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Concrete measures would include:

    - raising the age of marriage
    - increasing educational opportunities for young women
    - prohibiting polygamy
    - increasing reproductive choice for women and improving access to birth control, including abortion.

    Peter,

    I'm very pessimistic. We can't even get them to maintain the basic rudiments of civilization, such as sanitation, public safety, order, etc. Jacob Zuma, the leader of one of the more "advanced" sub-Saharan African states, South Africa, is an unabashed, public, and extravagant polygamist. They're just so r-selected I don't see how these social policies will be able counteract it.

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  • Everyone,

    In diplomacy, the answer is called 'frank discussion'. We should be telling certain African states that their current level of population growth is unsustainable and constitutes a threat to world peace.

    Concrete measures would include:

    - raising the age of marriage
    - increasing educational opportunities for young women
    - prohibiting polygamy
    - increasing reproductive choice for women and improving access to birth control, including abortion.

    As countries like Algeria, Israel, and China start to grapple with this issue, they too will want to get in on the 'frank discussion'. This is one of the principles of alliance theory. When one nation starts to act aggressively, it tends to create a coalition among other nations that, otherwise, would not be allied to each other.

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  • Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    J. Flowers, the solution is to help sub-saharan Africa economically. Then there wouldn't be much of a need for its people to immigrate. Remember, people seek opportunity. That is why they leave their birth places, but if you provide that chance at home then they won't have too. So by helping sub-saharan Africa we help ourselves..

    Wrong. Economic aid is what got us into this problem in the first place. It's what has subsidized Africa's population growth that is now spilling over out of Africa. And there really is nothing aside from genetic engineering and eugenics that can be done to "help" them, since all these efforts to improve them economically aren't to try to help them reach a stable level in accordance with their native abilities and capacities, but to try to get them to reach advanced Western standards that they're simply incapable of sustaining by themselves.

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  • Governments maybe have a motive to tacitly permit their population to be replaced as long as it does not cause too much unrest. Populations made up of homogeneous masses like in Algeria are more likely to cause trouble but immigration breaks down the population's sense of solidarity and reduces the influence of regionalism or ethnicity.

    I think many governments are quite pleased with the effect immigration has of weakening traditional loyalties. Many countries in the Arab world are ruled by minorities who regard the allegiances of their subjects as a potential basis for an illegitimate political movement.

    I wonder about governments in the West having similar motives too.

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  • Insightful,

    I agree, but how do you provide that help? Bob Geldof assisted to help Ethopia in the 80's and since than the population has doubled. I think any assistance that contributes to economic growth in Africa will be absorbed by population growth. Living standards there will remain static or decline (the classic 'malthusian trap'). Many people think the establishment of a 1st world economy and infrastructure in Africa will prevent this mass migration. Rhodesia in 1980 had these characteristics and today I am sure that many Zimbabweans would like to emigrate (btw, would it really be all that different if Mugabe hadn't taken over?).

    Too much intrusion by western contries would be viewed as return to colonialism, which would never be accepted. But even during this period the native populations were exploding and it was just a matter of time before these regimes would collapse. South Africa is another example where economic assistance was provded to the bantu people. Their population increased, the old regime had to collapse and things today are deteriorating.

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  • J. Flowers, the solution is to help sub-saharan Africa economically. Then there wouldn't be much of a need for its people to immigrate. Remember, people seek opportunity. That is why they leave their birth places, but if you provide that chance at home then they won't have too. So by helping sub-saharan Africa we help ourselves..

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  • I am in my late twenties. Can anyone name a place (country, province, etc.) that will be immune to this demographic change for the next 40-50 years? This extremely depressing, and yet Mr Frost's observations seem to closely correspond to reality.

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  • North Africa, China, Europe… where else are they headed?

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  • Hopefully, some sort of broad collapse of the industrialized world that disrupts food and medicine traffic into sub-Saharan Africa will mercifully intercede.

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  • You paint a very grim picture of the future of the world, Mr. Frost.

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