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 All Comments / On "Alexei Navalny"
    Meddling in the Russian elections. I voted for Zhirinovsky on March 18, 2018. Have said all there is to say on that in these articles: An Analysis of Zhirinovsky's Program Russia Elections 2018: Elections as Regime Referendums Putin 2018: The Scorecard With that out of the way, let's move on to the bigger picture. PS....
  • @melanf

    It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik’s sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it’s true about his homosexuality, I was told, “everyone knows that.”
     
    Not everyone. I read about it for the first time in my life.

    Not everyone. I read about it for the first time in my life.

    I read it in trolling comments a few times over years – for example, I guess some Ukrainian comments on YouTube.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @JL
    I have a lot of respect for Zhirinovsky, he's played an important role in Russian politics for decades now. He's entertaining, smart and generally calls it like he sees it. What he does in his private life is irrelevant to all this anyway.

    But his career is probably in its twilight now, and his poor showing in the election is a symptom. This makes him vulnerable. The point wasn't that the piderast journalist is telling the truth, but that he felt he could even make such an accusation publicly and that he chose now to do do. It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik's sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it's true about his homosexuality, I was told, "everyone knows that."

    It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik’s sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it’s true about his homosexuality, I was told, “everyone knows that.”

    Not everyone. I read about it for the first time in my life.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Not everyone. I read about it for the first time in my life.

     

    I read it in trolling comments a few times over years - for example, I guess some Ukrainian comments on YouTube.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    GRUDININ HAS SHAVED HIS MUSTACHE AFTER ALL.

    https://cdni.rt.com/russian/images/2018.03/article/5ab61ca0183561f9528b4578.png

    Good man.
    He deserved his double digit result.

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  • GRUDININ HAS SHAVED HIS MUSTACHE AFTER ALL.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Good man.
    He deserved his double digit result.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • JL says:
    @Dmitry
    He's married with a wife and grandkids. So while it's not impossible that he is gay, there's not exactly vast or overwhelming evidence that he is gay, on the basis that a Muslim liberal journalist, who lives in the West (i.e. everything that would want to take down Zhirinovsky), says he once touched his back during an interview ten years ago.

    I have a lot of respect for Zhirinovsky, he’s played an important role in Russian politics for decades now. He’s entertaining, smart and generally calls it like he sees it. What he does in his private life is irrelevant to all this anyway.

    But his career is probably in its twilight now, and his poor showing in the election is a symptom. This makes him vulnerable. The point wasn’t that the piderast journalist is telling the truth, but that he felt he could even make such an accusation publicly and that he chose now to do do. It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik’s sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it’s true about his homosexuality, I was told, “everyone knows that.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @melanf

    It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik’s sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it’s true about his homosexuality, I was told, “everyone knows that.”
     
    Not everyone. I read about it for the first time in my life.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • OT

    The Hungarian election seems difficult to predict because there is little openly available detailed precinct level data, and also because it’s difficult to measure second preferences and the likelihood of people voting for candidates other than that of their most preferred parties. It’s also difficult to predict turnout, and the Fidesz victory or its size greatly depends on turnout: basically, the lower the turnout, the higher the portion of the votes going to Fidesz. The most likely guess is still a Fidesz win without winning a supermajority, though there’s always the chance of a Fidesz supermajority and also of a Fidesz loss. The March 15 speech of Orbán threatening some unspecified people with retribution was unhelpful in that it could mobilize the opposition voters. The fact that now there seems to be a chance of beating him will probably also mobilize opposition voters.

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  • @JL

    I voted for Zhirinovsky
     
    Commenter 5371 (if I remember the digits correctly) recently stated in a different thread that Zhirinovsky is a homosexual. I found the assertion intriguing, as it was the first time I'd heard it. Well, lo and behold, as part of Russia's current mini-Weinsteingate scandal, Zhirik is now being publicly accused of sexual harassment by an openly gay male journalist. How ironic that Russia's nationalist champion is a homosexual Jewish lawyer, something akin to a Russian Roy Cohn.

    He’s married with a wife and grandkids. So while it’s not impossible that he is gay, there’s not exactly vast or overwhelming evidence that he is gay, on the basis that a Muslim liberal journalist, who lives in the West (i.e. everything that would want to take down Zhirinovsky), says he once touched his back during an interview ten years ago.

    Read More
    • Agree: melanf
    • Replies: @JL
    I have a lot of respect for Zhirinovsky, he's played an important role in Russian politics for decades now. He's entertaining, smart and generally calls it like he sees it. What he does in his private life is irrelevant to all this anyway.

    But his career is probably in its twilight now, and his poor showing in the election is a symptom. This makes him vulnerable. The point wasn't that the piderast journalist is telling the truth, but that he felt he could even make such an accusation publicly and that he chose now to do do. It never would occur to me to think about Zhirik's sex life, but when I asked someone who usually knows about these things if it's true about his homosexuality, I was told, "everyone knows that."
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • JL says:

    I voted for Zhirinovsky

    Commenter 5371 (if I remember the digits correctly) recently stated in a different thread that Zhirinovsky is a homosexual. I found the assertion intriguing, as it was the first time I’d heard it. Well, lo and behold, as part of Russia’s current mini-Weinsteingate scandal, Zhirik is now being publicly accused of sexual harassment by an openly gay male journalist. How ironic that Russia’s nationalist champion is a homosexual Jewish lawyer, something akin to a Russian Roy Cohn.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    He's married with a wife and grandkids. So while it's not impossible that he is gay, there's not exactly vast or overwhelming evidence that he is gay, on the basis that a Muslim liberal journalist, who lives in the West (i.e. everything that would want to take down Zhirinovsky), says he once touched his back during an interview ten years ago.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @bb.
    that's on the assumption that people MUST vote against Orban whoever is available. As far as I can tell, that's not automatically the case. Voter apathy might prevail as well, in which case Orban profits, or Jobbik, which is unhandshakeworthy more from the left than from the right anyways and just effectively block any coalition.

    Did the lefties in Hungary adapt anti-immigrationism yet? In Slovakia, the whole country is basically united in this case so it is not really a voter issue.

    Jobbik has drifted to the left. It’s now probably to the left of Fidesz, or at least not significantly to the right. Its relations with any of the leftist parties are better than Fidesz. By the way, Orbán tried to make it impossible for them to campaign. So they also hate Orbán now. And they are definitely not less handshakeworthy than Fidesz. They already engaged in talks to the leftist parties. The “new leftist” parties (untainted with governing 2002-10) actually probably like Jobbik more than the socialists or DK (a spinoff party of the socialists with their least popular politicians, somehow still hanging in the National Assembly).

    on the assumption that people MUST vote against Orban whoever is available

    That has happened in all of the by-elections since 2014. Fidesz lost each of them. I’m not saying it will happen everywhere, but if Fidesz loses over half the districts…

    Let me repeat: I still think Fidesz will win this one. But unless they change significantly (and I’m not sure they are capable of that), they will lose badly in 2022. Probably already during the European elections. Even the municipal elections (I think in 2019). It’s possible that they won’t be able to hold onto power until 2022. (And there’s now some chance of them losing already on April 8.)

    They have less than half of the voters, and anyone who is not explicitly their voter hates them. Not a good situation, even if you’re the biggest party in the land…

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  • @reiner Tor
    Also recently websites have popped up showing the most viable (popular) opposition candidates in most districts, so now voters already have the information. Orbán probably didn’t understand the possibilities of the internet.

    that’s on the assumption that people MUST vote against Orban whoever is available. As far as I can tell, that’s not automatically the case. Voter apathy might prevail as well, in which case Orban profits, or Jobbik, which is unhandshakeworthy more from the left than from the right anyways and just effectively block any coalition.

    Did the lefties in Hungary adapt anti-immigrationism yet? In Slovakia, the whole country is basically united in this case so it is not really a voter issue.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Jobbik has drifted to the left. It's now probably to the left of Fidesz, or at least not significantly to the right. Its relations with any of the leftist parties are better than Fidesz. By the way, Orbán tried to make it impossible for them to campaign. So they also hate Orbán now. And they are definitely not less handshakeworthy than Fidesz. They already engaged in talks to the leftist parties. The "new leftist" parties (untainted with governing 2002-10) actually probably like Jobbik more than the socialists or DK (a spinoff party of the socialists with their least popular politicians, somehow still hanging in the National Assembly).

    on the assumption that people MUST vote against Orban whoever is available
     
    That has happened in all of the by-elections since 2014. Fidesz lost each of them. I'm not saying it will happen everywhere, but if Fidesz loses over half the districts...

    Let me repeat: I still think Fidesz will win this one. But unless they change significantly (and I'm not sure they are capable of that), they will lose badly in 2022. Probably already during the European elections. Even the municipal elections (I think in 2019). It's possible that they won't be able to hold onto power until 2022. (And there's now some chance of them losing already on April 8.)

    They have less than half of the voters, and anyone who is not explicitly their voter hates them. Not a good situation, even if you're the biggest party in the land...
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @John Gruskos
    I hope you're wrong.

    From a distance, Viktor Orban looks like the world's greatest statesman.

    On the big, long term issues his platform is perfect:

    Immigration restriction
    Non-interventionist foreign policy
    Christian social conservatism
    Understands the importance of a replacement level birthrate
    Pragmatic populist economics
    National pride and sovereignty
    Relatively friendly towards Russia, could conceivable be the mediator who prevents WW3
    Foreign aid focused on helping the most vulnerable people, Middle Eastern Christians, survive in their own homeland
    Above all, the public face and brains of the V4 group, and the established ally of the national conservatives currently taking control of Austria, Italy and hopefully soon other Western European countries.

    For the first time since John Hunyadi, the #1 defender of European Christian civilization is a Hungarian.

    The poll results on Wikipedia look promising for Fidesz:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018

    The 30 day average gives Fidesz 50% + support, compared to 45% in 2014.

    It looks as though Fidesz has stolen a large chunk of Jobbik's 2014 supporters, and the combined nationalist percentage (Fidesz + Jobbik) has slightly increased at the expense of the left.

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.

    I don’t think it’s true of Fidesz, they are weaker among the young. I think it might be true of Jobbik to an extent, but also of the new leftist parties, especially the otherwise very small Momentum, probably also LMP.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @John Gruskos
    I hope you're wrong.

    From a distance, Viktor Orban looks like the world's greatest statesman.

    On the big, long term issues his platform is perfect:

    Immigration restriction
    Non-interventionist foreign policy
    Christian social conservatism
    Understands the importance of a replacement level birthrate
    Pragmatic populist economics
    National pride and sovereignty
    Relatively friendly towards Russia, could conceivable be the mediator who prevents WW3
    Foreign aid focused on helping the most vulnerable people, Middle Eastern Christians, survive in their own homeland
    Above all, the public face and brains of the V4 group, and the established ally of the national conservatives currently taking control of Austria, Italy and hopefully soon other Western European countries.

    For the first time since John Hunyadi, the #1 defender of European Christian civilization is a Hungarian.

    The poll results on Wikipedia look promising for Fidesz:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018

    The 30 day average gives Fidesz 50% + support, compared to 45% in 2014.

    It looks as though Fidesz has stolen a large chunk of Jobbik's 2014 supporters, and the combined nationalist percentage (Fidesz + Jobbik) has slightly increased at the expense of the left.

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.

    Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data about the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for “don’t know/no preference”), and about the support of political parties among “active” or “certain” voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[a]

    It’s a near certainty that the “don’t know” voters will mostly vote for an opposition party. There’s more of them than usual, especially this close to the election (when normally voters already know for sure if they were going to vote, and for whom).

    Orbán is good (he seems to have gotten more and more based over the years), but his corruption and his tendency to surround himself with incompetent hacks and sycophants will be his undoing. As I wrote, I still expect him to win this time, but he will no longer get a supermajority.

    Regarding immigration, if Jobbik becomes a part of the coalition, then I wouldn’t expect big changes. Even half of leftist voters are against third world immigration. But I’m not sure if the enthusiasm will stay.

    Also Orbán is overusing the migration topic in his election campaign, especially whenever his corruption comes up. It only discredits the topic, which I don’t like.

    I still hope he’ll manage to change. As you wrote, he is probably the most based white leader of any country.

    We’ll see.

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  • @reiner Tor
    You have to remember he started out as a young, fresh leader. (The name Fidesz originally comes from an abbreviation FIDESZ, which stood for Young Democrats' Alliance. It was a liberal party in the early 1990s, and until 1992 no new member could be accepted above the age 35...)

    His entourage changed a lot since he came to power in 2010. It moved a bit in the alt-right direction, which is to say, it got crankier. Many of his more normal conservative allies left him over the years or started keeping a low profile, while he started to employ stupid lieutenants. Since 2010, but especially since 2014 he really became a Führer of his party, and most people around him were sycophants. He seems to have believed by 2014 that he was an infallible genius, and that it was no longer possible for anyone in Hungary to beat him.

    His lieutenants are now either stupid or corrupt or both. He himself is not above all this: his son-in-law started a corrupt scheme in 2010, and was already considered a shady scandal-ridden figure before 2014, but recently new details emerged. It's possible Hungary will have to pay back some money to the EU (I mean, stealing EU monies when you're trying to take a stand against them must be stupid...) because of these shady deals. The mayor of his native village became one of the richest people in the country over the past 8 years (he's a simple gas fitter), and many people now suspect that his wealth actually belongs to Orbán personally. To be honest, it's not implausible.

    I hope you’re wrong.

    From a distance, Viktor Orban looks like the world’s greatest statesman.

    On the big, long term issues his platform is perfect:

    Immigration restriction
    Non-interventionist foreign policy
    Christian social conservatism
    Understands the importance of a replacement level birthrate
    Pragmatic populist economics
    National pride and sovereignty
    Relatively friendly towards Russia, could conceivable be the mediator who prevents WW3
    Foreign aid focused on helping the most vulnerable people, Middle Eastern Christians, survive in their own homeland
    Above all, the public face and brains of the V4 group, and the established ally of the national conservatives currently taking control of Austria, Italy and hopefully soon other Western European countries.

    For the first time since John Hunyadi, the #1 defender of European Christian civilization is a Hungarian.

    The poll results on Wikipedia look promising for Fidesz:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018

    The 30 day average gives Fidesz 50% + support, compared to 45% in 2014.

    It looks as though Fidesz has stolen a large chunk of Jobbik’s 2014 supporters, and the combined nationalist percentage (Fidesz + Jobbik) has slightly increased at the expense of the left.

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data about the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for "don't know/no preference"), and about the support of political parties among "active" or "certain" voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[a]
     
    It’s a near certainty that the “don’t know” voters will mostly vote for an opposition party. There’s more of them than usual, especially this close to the election (when normally voters already know for sure if they were going to vote, and for whom).

    Orbán is good (he seems to have gotten more and more based over the years), but his corruption and his tendency to surround himself with incompetent hacks and sycophants will be his undoing. As I wrote, I still expect him to win this time, but he will no longer get a supermajority.

    Regarding immigration, if Jobbik becomes a part of the coalition, then I wouldn’t expect big changes. Even half of leftist voters are against third world immigration. But I’m not sure if the enthusiasm will stay.

    Also Orbán is overusing the migration topic in his election campaign, especially whenever his corruption comes up. It only discredits the topic, which I don’t like.

    I still hope he’ll manage to change. As you wrote, he is probably the most based white leader of any country.

    We’ll see.
    , @reiner Tor

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.
     
    I don’t think it’s true of Fidesz, they are weaker among the young. I think it might be true of Jobbik to an extent, but also of the new leftist parties, especially the otherwise very small Momentum, probably also LMP.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Matra
    Orbán probably didn’t understand the possibilities of the internet.

    One of the most common characteristics of conservatives - ie. the moderate right we've depended on to fight the left over the last half century - throughout the West is that they are really slow learners. Alt Righters always talk about conservative cowardice and treachery, which are also common, but the inability of conservative people in general to even notice new situations/threats etc is even more frustrating and demoralising. I guess it's more to do with endemic provincialism rather than outright stupidity but who knows.

    You have to remember he started out as a young, fresh leader. (The name Fidesz originally comes from an abbreviation FIDESZ, which stood for Young Democrats’ Alliance. It was a liberal party in the early 1990s, and until 1992 no new member could be accepted above the age 35…)

    His entourage changed a lot since he came to power in 2010. It moved a bit in the alt-right direction, which is to say, it got crankier. Many of his more normal conservative allies left him over the years or started keeping a low profile, while he started to employ stupid lieutenants. Since 2010, but especially since 2014 he really became a Führer of his party, and most people around him were sycophants. He seems to have believed by 2014 that he was an infallible genius, and that it was no longer possible for anyone in Hungary to beat him.

    His lieutenants are now either stupid or corrupt or both. He himself is not above all this: his son-in-law started a corrupt scheme in 2010, and was already considered a shady scandal-ridden figure before 2014, but recently new details emerged. It’s possible Hungary will have to pay back some money to the EU (I mean, stealing EU monies when you’re trying to take a stand against them must be stupid…) because of these shady deals. The mayor of his native village became one of the richest people in the country over the past 8 years (he’s a simple gas fitter), and many people now suspect that his wealth actually belongs to Orbán personally. To be honest, it’s not implausible.

    Read More
    • Replies: @John Gruskos
    I hope you're wrong.

    From a distance, Viktor Orban looks like the world's greatest statesman.

    On the big, long term issues his platform is perfect:

    Immigration restriction
    Non-interventionist foreign policy
    Christian social conservatism
    Understands the importance of a replacement level birthrate
    Pragmatic populist economics
    National pride and sovereignty
    Relatively friendly towards Russia, could conceivable be the mediator who prevents WW3
    Foreign aid focused on helping the most vulnerable people, Middle Eastern Christians, survive in their own homeland
    Above all, the public face and brains of the V4 group, and the established ally of the national conservatives currently taking control of Austria, Italy and hopefully soon other Western European countries.

    For the first time since John Hunyadi, the #1 defender of European Christian civilization is a Hungarian.

    The poll results on Wikipedia look promising for Fidesz:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Hungarian_parliamentary_election,_2018

    The 30 day average gives Fidesz 50% + support, compared to 45% in 2014.

    It looks as though Fidesz has stolen a large chunk of Jobbik's 2014 supporters, and the combined nationalist percentage (Fidesz + Jobbik) has slightly increased at the expense of the left.

    Even better from a long term perspective, polling by age group from 2016 shows progressively larger margins of support for Fidesz (and for Jobbik) among younger groups.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Orbán probably didn’t understand the possibilities of the internet.

    One of the most common characteristics of conservatives – ie. the moderate right we’ve depended on to fight the left over the last half century – throughout the West is that they are really slow learners. Alt Righters always talk about conservative cowardice and treachery, which are also common, but the inability of conservative people in general to even notice new situations/threats etc is even more frustrating and demoralising. I guess it’s more to do with endemic provincialism rather than outright stupidity but who knows.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    You have to remember he started out as a young, fresh leader. (The name Fidesz originally comes from an abbreviation FIDESZ, which stood for Young Democrats' Alliance. It was a liberal party in the early 1990s, and until 1992 no new member could be accepted above the age 35...)

    His entourage changed a lot since he came to power in 2010. It moved a bit in the alt-right direction, which is to say, it got crankier. Many of his more normal conservative allies left him over the years or started keeping a low profile, while he started to employ stupid lieutenants. Since 2010, but especially since 2014 he really became a Führer of his party, and most people around him were sycophants. He seems to have believed by 2014 that he was an infallible genius, and that it was no longer possible for anyone in Hungary to beat him.

    His lieutenants are now either stupid or corrupt or both. He himself is not above all this: his son-in-law started a corrupt scheme in 2010, and was already considered a shady scandal-ridden figure before 2014, but recently new details emerged. It's possible Hungary will have to pay back some money to the EU (I mean, stealing EU monies when you're trying to take a stand against them must be stupid...) because of these shady deals. The mayor of his native village became one of the richest people in the country over the past 8 years (he's a simple gas fitter), and many people now suspect that his wealth actually belongs to Orbán personally. To be honest, it's not implausible.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @reiner Tor
    A number of scandals rocked his party (some corruption scandals involving his close family members, but not all scandals were corruption related), but the most important thing is that already in 2014 he didn’t have a majority of the votes.

    The Hungarian election system since 2014 is a mix of first past the post and (to a smaller extent) proportional representation. (Even the latter favors the winner.) Before Orbán changed it, it had a similar system, but one where the MP districts had a second round, unless someone received the majority of the votes. So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.

    Orbán changed the system because he understood that for the opposition (which was divided, even without Jobbik) would need to form an alliance in order to be competitive. However, some of the leftist parties were discredited in the eyes of the majority of the electorate (and the voters of Jobbik and the leftists were often incompatible), and so an alliance would have destroyed a large portion of the appeal of the other leftist parties (not to mention Jobbik).

    However, that seems to have changed recently. Moreover, there has been open talk of “cross-voting” even with Jobbik, so in many places the parties won’t even have to form an alliance (which, less than three weeks before the election, they have still failed to do anyway), their voters in each district will be voting for the most popular opposition candidate (and now this seems to include Jobbik), and they are encouraging their voters to do so.

    It’s a question how many of the voters will actually do so, but I think the floodgates have opened to some extent already. It’s not exactly encouraging that since 2014 Fidesz has lost all by-elections. They were usually explained away as products of unusual local circumstances, but it’s getting increasingly likely that it will happen in a lot of places.

    I still expect Fidesz to win, but not by a large margin.

    So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.

    The second round had the three best performing candidates, and it wasn’t necessary to get the majority in the second round. Therefore, cooperation between at least the two largest opposition parties (with some candidates, usually, but not always, the weakest ones, withdrawing from the race) was still needed. But they didn’t have to do it until after the first round.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @reiner Tor
    A number of scandals rocked his party (some corruption scandals involving his close family members, but not all scandals were corruption related), but the most important thing is that already in 2014 he didn’t have a majority of the votes.

    The Hungarian election system since 2014 is a mix of first past the post and (to a smaller extent) proportional representation. (Even the latter favors the winner.) Before Orbán changed it, it had a similar system, but one where the MP districts had a second round, unless someone received the majority of the votes. So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.

    Orbán changed the system because he understood that for the opposition (which was divided, even without Jobbik) would need to form an alliance in order to be competitive. However, some of the leftist parties were discredited in the eyes of the majority of the electorate (and the voters of Jobbik and the leftists were often incompatible), and so an alliance would have destroyed a large portion of the appeal of the other leftist parties (not to mention Jobbik).

    However, that seems to have changed recently. Moreover, there has been open talk of “cross-voting” even with Jobbik, so in many places the parties won’t even have to form an alliance (which, less than three weeks before the election, they have still failed to do anyway), their voters in each district will be voting for the most popular opposition candidate (and now this seems to include Jobbik), and they are encouraging their voters to do so.

    It’s a question how many of the voters will actually do so, but I think the floodgates have opened to some extent already. It’s not exactly encouraging that since 2014 Fidesz has lost all by-elections. They were usually explained away as products of unusual local circumstances, but it’s getting increasingly likely that it will happen in a lot of places.

    I still expect Fidesz to win, but not by a large margin.

    Also recently websites have popped up showing the most viable (popular) opposition candidates in most districts, so now voters already have the information. Orbán probably didn’t understand the possibilities of the internet.

    Read More
    • Replies: @bb.
    that's on the assumption that people MUST vote against Orban whoever is available. As far as I can tell, that's not automatically the case. Voter apathy might prevail as well, in which case Orban profits, or Jobbik, which is unhandshakeworthy more from the left than from the right anyways and just effectively block any coalition.

    Did the lefties in Hungary adapt anti-immigrationism yet? In Slovakia, the whole country is basically united in this case so it is not really a voter issue.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Matra
    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority.

    Any particular reason for his worsening chances?

    A number of scandals rocked his party (some corruption scandals involving his close family members, but not all scandals were corruption related), but the most important thing is that already in 2014 he didn’t have a majority of the votes.

    The Hungarian election system since 2014 is a mix of first past the post and (to a smaller extent) proportional representation. (Even the latter favors the winner.) Before Orbán changed it, it had a similar system, but one where the MP districts had a second round, unless someone received the majority of the votes. So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.

    Orbán changed the system because he understood that for the opposition (which was divided, even without Jobbik) would need to form an alliance in order to be competitive. However, some of the leftist parties were discredited in the eyes of the majority of the electorate (and the voters of Jobbik and the leftists were often incompatible), and so an alliance would have destroyed a large portion of the appeal of the other leftist parties (not to mention Jobbik).

    However, that seems to have changed recently. Moreover, there has been open talk of “cross-voting” even with Jobbik, so in many places the parties won’t even have to form an alliance (which, less than three weeks before the election, they have still failed to do anyway), their voters in each district will be voting for the most popular opposition candidate (and now this seems to include Jobbik), and they are encouraging their voters to do so.

    It’s a question how many of the voters will actually do so, but I think the floodgates have opened to some extent already. It’s not exactly encouraging that since 2014 Fidesz has lost all by-elections. They were usually explained away as products of unusual local circumstances, but it’s getting increasingly likely that it will happen in a lot of places.

    I still expect Fidesz to win, but not by a large margin.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Also recently websites have popped up showing the most viable (popular) opposition candidates in most districts, so now voters already have the information. Orbán probably didn’t understand the possibilities of the internet.
    , @reiner Tor

    So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.
     
    The second round had the three best performing candidates, and it wasn't necessary to get the majority in the second round. Therefore, cooperation between at least the two largest opposition parties (with some candidates, usually, but not always, the weakest ones, withdrawing from the race) was still needed. But they didn't have to do it until after the first round.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @reiner Tor
    OT

    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority. I don’t know what will happen after that. Theoretically there could be a coalition, but now neither a Fidesz-Jobbik, nor a Jobbik-left coalition seems viable. Even the leftist parties seem to hate each other as much as they hate Fidesz.

    But I think Orbán will still probably win this time, but it’s likely his last cycle as prime minister.

    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority.

    Any particular reason for his worsening chances?

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    A number of scandals rocked his party (some corruption scandals involving his close family members, but not all scandals were corruption related), but the most important thing is that already in 2014 he didn’t have a majority of the votes.

    The Hungarian election system since 2014 is a mix of first past the post and (to a smaller extent) proportional representation. (Even the latter favors the winner.) Before Orbán changed it, it had a similar system, but one where the MP districts had a second round, unless someone received the majority of the votes. So parties could run separately and then after the first round of voting they could form an alliance.

    Orbán changed the system because he understood that for the opposition (which was divided, even without Jobbik) would need to form an alliance in order to be competitive. However, some of the leftist parties were discredited in the eyes of the majority of the electorate (and the voters of Jobbik and the leftists were often incompatible), and so an alliance would have destroyed a large portion of the appeal of the other leftist parties (not to mention Jobbik).

    However, that seems to have changed recently. Moreover, there has been open talk of “cross-voting” even with Jobbik, so in many places the parties won’t even have to form an alliance (which, less than three weeks before the election, they have still failed to do anyway), their voters in each district will be voting for the most popular opposition candidate (and now this seems to include Jobbik), and they are encouraging their voters to do so.

    It’s a question how many of the voters will actually do so, but I think the floodgates have opened to some extent already. It’s not exactly encouraging that since 2014 Fidesz has lost all by-elections. They were usually explained away as products of unusual local circumstances, but it’s getting increasingly likely that it will happen in a lot of places.

    I still expect Fidesz to win, but not by a large margin.
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  • @reiner Tor
    OT

    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority. I don’t know what will happen after that. Theoretically there could be a coalition, but now neither a Fidesz-Jobbik, nor a Jobbik-left coalition seems viable. Even the leftist parties seem to hate each other as much as they hate Fidesz.

    But I think Orbán will still probably win this time, but it’s likely his last cycle as prime minister.

    For those who didn’t know, it was about the upcoming election in Hungary on April 8.

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  • OT

    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority. I don’t know what will happen after that. Theoretically there could be a coalition, but now neither a Fidesz-Jobbik, nor a Jobbik-left coalition seems viable. Even the leftist parties seem to hate each other as much as they hate Fidesz.

    But I think Orbán will still probably win this time, but it’s likely his last cycle as prime minister.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    For those who didn’t know, it was about the upcoming election in Hungary on April 8.
    , @Matra
    Though I still expect Orbán to win in April, his odds have considerably worsened in recent weeks. There is now a serious chance of Fidesz not getting a majority.

    Any particular reason for his worsening chances?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @reiner Tor

    if there’s demand
     
    There's certainly demand on my part for a comprehensive post about election fraud in Russia since 1990. Including media bias etc.

    d̶e̶m̶a̶n̶d̶ idle curiosity in my case.
    1991 and the yes-yes-no-yes 1993 referendum too

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I believe that it was mainly just soldiers voting in Chechnya in 1996.

    And you are of course correct. Even the most falsified Russian elections ever, the Duma elections of 2011, only bumped up United Russia by no more than 11% (probably 8-9%).

    The polls soon before the second tour all had Yeltsin out in front: https://kireev.livejournal.com/758035.html

    Here is a comprehensive explanation of why the falsifications in 1996 could not have stolen Zyuganov his victory: https://kireev.livejournal.com/660975.html (I suppose I can make a post about it if there's demand)

    I’d be curious to see the rationale for that, considering the vast majority of us who lived through that wild-west era can attest there was fraud on a massive scale.

    I have many Iranian friends who can back this up, everyone does their research or at least gets a friend to do it on their behalf before setting off, Sweden is always on the top of peoples’ lists.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    Yes, but the causality is the other way around: the fewer applications a country accepts, the fewer applications it will receive. This is well known in Western Europe, and Denmark turned this observation into policy many years ago (to the outrage of Swedish liberals).

    To give you an idea of how these things work, a few years ago, some Good Samaritan translated into Swedish the instructions that human traffickers hand out to aspiring immigrants in North Africa (or maybe it was the Middle East, I forget), and it was fascinating to see how informed they were of how different EU states handle application procedures. They knew exactly which countries were most likely to accept refugees, which countries offered the most generous benefits, and which pitches were most likely to be accepted (which regions in what country you should claim to come from, for what reason you should claim to have fled, your purported family situation, etc.).

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    Look at the map. It is all about geography. It is not that easy to get to Portugal w/o getting first to Spain.

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  • OT: The Absolute STATE of Cuck Island. /pol/ language aside, this is starting to move from the outrageous to the seriously hilarious.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/16099568.Scots__Nazi_dog__film_maker_found_guilty_of_hate_crime/

    Meechan, 30, recorded his girlfriend’s pug, Buddha, responding to statements such as “gas the Jews” and “Sieg Heil” by raising its paw. He said he made the video to annoy his girlfriend Suzanne Kelly.

    Words fail me.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    May have something to do with the fact that Greece has not been sovereign in nearly a decade and its security services are de facto on the Reich payroll.

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  • @Polish Perspective
    OT: The newest asylum stats are out for the EU + Schengen for 2017. Full pdf:

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8754388/3-20032018-AP-EN.pdf/50c2b5a5-3e6a-4732-82d0-1caf244549e3

    Some notes: Number of overall asylum applications fell by around 50% YoY. It is still (marginally) above 2014 numbers, but quite close to that. However, don't be fooled: 2014 was a record year before 2015. If you look at the numbers from 2010, it was much lower. 2011 may be an even better indicator, since large parts of Europe had begun to recover post-2010 and its blistering growth. Austerity only set in in mid-to-late 2011, and asylum waves have a lag wrt economic factors. So, still pretty terrible even if not catastrophic.

    Which countries get the fewest applications per million?


    The lowest numbers were recorded in Slovakia (27 applicants per million population), Poland (79), Portugal (98), the Czech Republic (108) and Estonia (138).
     
    Of course, this is applications. A country may receive comparably fewer applications but still be quite generous with doling out acceptance rates. We won't get decisions until later this year.

    I would argue that the latter is a better overall indicator of well a country polices its borders, since some countries get more applicants simply due to geography. The 2016 data is here:

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8001715/3-26042017-AP-EN.pdf/05e315db-1fe3-49d1-94ff-06f7e995580e

    The country with the lowest approval per million (10) was Poland. Runner's up was Portugal (30). Hungary at (45), Czechia at the same level. So Portugal seems to be getting both low application rates and is stingy with approvals.

    Sweden's acceptance rate is over 7000 (I'm not kidding).

    Returning to the latest data. Poland's top three ethnicities are:

    1. Russian (2120 / 71% share of total)
    2. Ukraine (300 / 10% share of total)
    3. Tajikistan(85 / 3% of total).

    I'm guessing a significant share of "Russians" are actually Chechens. Background info here:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/police-officials-concerned-about-migrants-crossing-german-polish-border-terrorism-migration/

    According to the story, we're actually breaking international law for refugees by refusing to even allow most of them to even apply. Germany, which uses that talking point a lot to push 3rd worlders are complicit in silence with this practice. In reality, both Poland and Germany knows that the ultimate destination for the Chechens is Germany.

    I believe AK even posted a story last year, which references some of these diaspora communities in Berlin imposing what AK tongue-in-cheek called "white sharia". Part of the reason why we have such a low acceptance rate is likely because virtually all of the Chechens get denied asylum. And those are just those who manage to claim asylum. As the article makes clear, we're roughing most of them up and sending them back - in violation of international law - but I guess nobody cares when we're doing Germany's dirty work for them. Nobody in the Western media wants to sully Germany's image, after all ;)

    Its possible that there are non-Chechen asylum seekers, though I have no idea who they could be. Russia's not a bad place to live and the difference between them and us is not astronomical.

    Those few we do admit tend to be Christians and a large share of them are women. In fact, the government even brags that the (miniscule) amount of refugees we take are comprised of the highest share of women in all of the EU(46%) whereas those who Sweden take are 80-90% male.

    Pretty useless thing to brag about. I'd rather cut down refugee admissions to zero, even if they were all Christian women. It's an abused system, economic migration by another name, at this point.

    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson


    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.
     
    May have something to do with the fact that Greece has not been sovereign in nearly a decade and its security services are de facto on the Reich payroll.
    , @utu

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.
     
    Look at the map. It is all about geography. It is not that easy to get to Portugal w/o getting first to Spain.
    , @Swedish Family

    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.
     
    Yes, but the causality is the other way around: the fewer applications a country accepts, the fewer applications it will receive. This is well known in Western Europe, and Denmark turned this observation into policy many years ago (to the outrage of Swedish liberals).

    To give you an idea of how these things work, a few years ago, some Good Samaritan translated into Swedish the instructions that human traffickers hand out to aspiring immigrants in North Africa (or maybe it was the Middle East, I forget), and it was fascinating to see how informed they were of how different EU states handle application procedures. They knew exactly which countries were most likely to accept refugees, which countries offered the most generous benefits, and which pitches were most likely to be accepted (which regions in what country you should claim to come from, for what reason you should claim to have fled, your purported family situation, etc.).

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • OT: The newest asylum stats are out for the EU + Schengen for 2017. Full pdf:

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8754388/3-20032018-AP-EN.pdf/50c2b5a5-3e6a-4732-82d0-1caf244549e3

    Some notes: Number of overall asylum applications fell by around 50% YoY. It is still (marginally) above 2014 numbers, but quite close to that. However, don’t be fooled: 2014 was a record year before 2015. If you look at the numbers from 2010, it was much lower. 2011 may be an even better indicator, since large parts of Europe had begun to recover post-2010 and its blistering growth. Austerity only set in in mid-to-late 2011, and asylum waves have a lag wrt economic factors. So, still pretty terrible even if not catastrophic.

    Which countries get the fewest applications per million?

    The lowest numbers were recorded in Slovakia (27 applicants per million population), Poland (79), Portugal (98), the Czech Republic (108) and Estonia (138).

    Of course, this is applications. A country may receive comparably fewer applications but still be quite generous with doling out acceptance rates. We won’t get decisions until later this year.

    I would argue that the latter is a better overall indicator of well a country polices its borders, since some countries get more applicants simply due to geography. The 2016 data is here:

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/8001715/3-26042017-AP-EN.pdf/05e315db-1fe3-49d1-94ff-06f7e995580e

    The country with the lowest approval per million (10) was Poland. Runner’s up was Portugal (30). Hungary at (45), Czechia at the same level. So Portugal seems to be getting both low application rates and is stingy with approvals.

    Sweden’s acceptance rate is over 7000 (I’m not kidding).

    Returning to the latest data. Poland’s top three ethnicities are:

    1. Russian (2120 / 71% share of total)
    2. Ukraine (300 / 10% share of total)
    3. Tajikistan(85 / 3% of total).

    I’m guessing a significant share of “Russians” are actually Chechens. Background info here:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/police-officials-concerned-about-migrants-crossing-german-polish-border-terrorism-migration/

    According to the story, we’re actually breaking international law for refugees by refusing to even allow most of them to even apply. Germany, which uses that talking point a lot to push 3rd worlders are complicit in silence with this practice. In reality, both Poland and Germany knows that the ultimate destination for the Chechens is Germany.

    I believe AK even posted a story last year, which references some of these diaspora communities in Berlin imposing what AK tongue-in-cheek called “white sharia”. Part of the reason why we have such a low acceptance rate is likely because virtually all of the Chechens get denied asylum. And those are just those who manage to claim asylum. As the article makes clear, we’re roughing most of them up and sending them back – in violation of international law – but I guess nobody cares when we’re doing Germany’s dirty work for them. Nobody in the Western media wants to sully Germany’s image, after all ;)

    Its possible that there are non-Chechen asylum seekers, though I have no idea who they could be. Russia’s not a bad place to live and the difference between them and us is not astronomical.

    Those few we do admit tend to be Christians and a large share of them are women. In fact, the government even brags that the (miniscule) amount of refugees we take are comprised of the highest share of women in all of the EU(46%) whereas those who Sweden take are 80-90% male.

    Pretty useless thing to brag about. I’d rather cut down refugee admissions to zero, even if they were all Christian women. It’s an abused system, economic migration by another name, at this point.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting. So the countries that get the least applications, also admit the least of those they do get.

    I wonder why Portugal is so much more based than, say, Greece.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I believe that it was mainly just soldiers voting in Chechnya in 1996.

    And you are of course correct. Even the most falsified Russian elections ever, the Duma elections of 2011, only bumped up United Russia by no more than 11% (probably 8-9%).

    The polls soon before the second tour all had Yeltsin out in front: https://kireev.livejournal.com/758035.html

    Here is a comprehensive explanation of why the falsifications in 1996 could not have stolen Zyuganov his victory: https://kireev.livejournal.com/660975.html (I suppose I can make a post about it if there's demand)

    if there’s demand

    There’s certainly demand on my part for a comprehensive post about election fraud in Russia since 1990. Including media bias etc.

    Read More
    • Replies: @ussr andy
    d̶e̶m̶a̶n̶d̶ idle curiosity in my case.
    1991 and the yes-yes-no-yes 1993 referendum too
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • WTF, most people predicted that Putin would get less 70%?

    I thought it was obvious to everyone who knows anything about Russia that post-Crimea Putin is around 10-20% more popular than he was back in 2012. However, to be fair, that obviously doesn’t include most of the Western MSM lol, but didn’t even they acknowledge it back in 2014-15? That Alec Luhn guy and some/many others are actually surprised, really?

    Western Russia experts in a nutshell: “Rosstat and Levada… never heard of them. And I don’t speak Russian either.”

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    I believe that it was mainly just soldiers voting in Chechnya in 1996.

    And you are of course correct. Even the most falsified Russian elections ever, the Duma elections of 2011, only bumped up United Russia by no more than 11% (probably 8-9%).

    The polls soon before the second tour all had Yeltsin out in front: https://kireev.livejournal.com/758035.html

    Here is a comprehensive explanation of why the falsifications in 1996 could not have stolen Zyuganov his victory: https://kireev.livejournal.com/660975.html (I suppose I can make a post about it if there's demand)

    The 1993 plebiscite on the constitution?

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  • @reiner Tor
    Wasn't Chechnya also a likely case of mass fraud? Though it might have been too small to swing the election Yeltsin's way. (Or maybe the Chechens thought that Yeltsin would grant them de facto independence like he eventually did in August, and that Zyuganov wouldn't have done that?) Michael Meadowcroft certainly seemed to think that Chechnya was the most blatant example of fraud. Was he wrong?

    But looking at the data and polling results, it seems Yeltsin's lead was too large. I don't think 15% of the votes were fraudulent.

    I believe that it was mainly just soldiers voting in Chechnya in 1996.

    And you are of course correct. Even the most falsified Russian elections ever, the Duma elections of 2011, only bumped up United Russia by no more than 11% (probably 8-9%).

    The polls soon before the second tour all had Yeltsin out in front: https://kireev.livejournal.com/758035.html

    Here is a comprehensive explanation of why the falsifications in 1996 could not have stolen Zyuganov his victory: https://kireev.livejournal.com/660975.html (I suppose I can make a post about it if there’s demand)

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The 1993 plebiscite on the constitution?
    , @reiner Tor

    if there’s demand
     
    There's certainly demand on my part for a comprehensive post about election fraud in Russia since 1990. Including media bias etc.
    , @Yevardian
    I'd be curious to see the rationale for that, considering the vast majority of us who lived through that wild-west era can attest there was fraud on a massive scale.

    @Swedish Family

    I have many Iranian friends who can back this up, everyone does their research or at least gets a friend to do it on their behalf before setting off, Sweden is always on the top of peoples' lists.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway. There was nothing like the endemic fraud across most Russian regions that appeared after 2000.

    Saying otherwise on TV, etc. is useful propaganda because it helps discredit Yeltsin and Americanism, but no need to drink the Kool Aid here.

    I criticized Shpilkin's method in this very post. However, it is very far from not having value.

    Wasn’t Chechnya also a likely case of mass fraud? Though it might have been too small to swing the election Yeltsin’s way. (Or maybe the Chechens thought that Yeltsin would grant them de facto independence like he eventually did in August, and that Zyuganov wouldn’t have done that?) Michael Meadowcroft certainly seemed to think that Chechnya was the most blatant example of fraud. Was he wrong?

    But looking at the data and polling results, it seems Yeltsin’s lead was too large. I don’t think 15% of the votes were fraudulent.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I believe that it was mainly just soldiers voting in Chechnya in 1996.

    And you are of course correct. Even the most falsified Russian elections ever, the Duma elections of 2011, only bumped up United Russia by no more than 11% (probably 8-9%).

    The polls soon before the second tour all had Yeltsin out in front: https://kireev.livejournal.com/758035.html

    Here is a comprehensive explanation of why the falsifications in 1996 could not have stolen Zyuganov his victory: https://kireev.livejournal.com/660975.html (I suppose I can make a post about it if there's demand)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Spisarevski
    https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/975410951494172672

    Someone with a twitter account should tell Ed that unlike the banana republic where he is from, in Russia people without an ID and who are not even citizens can't vote, unlike the millions of illegals that voted for Hillary.

    I like how these people comment on videos which exist because of the Russian authorities and their cameras in the first place, as proof that the elections are not legitimate or something because of some minor incidents that have obviously been taken care of.

    this case looks like a set-up honestly. why would you commit fraud so blatantly, if you KNEW and SAW a camera behind you?…a performance really.

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  • There was nothing like the endemic fraud across most Russian regions that appeared after 2000.

    This is completely false, please don’t post anything like this ever again.

    The elections of 1996 were some of the most undemocratic elections in the history of mankind.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Президентские_выборы_в_России_(1996)

    раскаиваюсь, потому что тогда, действительно, ни для кого не секрет, коммунисты, действительно, побеждали. Побеждали они сильно, рейтинг Ельцина был надут с помощью и административного в том числе ресурса [...] А вообще-то, строго говоря, надо было, ну, как бы сказать? Ну, позволить России совершить демократический выбор. Он был – этот выбор был за коммунистов

    Член предвыборного штаба Ельцина А. Ослон вспоминал, что они полностью контролировали телевидение. Так, главным советником избирательной кампании Ельцина был президент телекомпании НТВ Игорь Малашенко, глава ВГТРК Эдуард Сагалаев вошёл в состав Общественного комитета поддержки президента Ельцина.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway. There was nothing like the endemic fraud across most Russian regions that appeared after 2000.

    Saying otherwise on TV, etc. is useful propaganda because it helps discredit Yeltsin and Americanism, but no need to drink the Kool Aid here.

    I criticized Shpilkin's method in this very post. However, it is very far from not having value.

    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway.

    The candidate who had 5% of support of the population won with 53% of votes. Very funny.

    I criticized Shpilkin’s method in this very post.

    A fake method( fake both theoretically and empirically) that uses an absolutely conscious falsifier-propagandist Shpilkin ” very far from not having value”?

    Almost all of what you write, you write very intelligently and based on facts. But I’ve seen 2 exceptions. The first exception – the assessment of the bridge in Vladivostok based on manipulation. The second is advertising of outright forger Spilkin

    Post Script – a very detailed analysis of fakes of Spilkin and Co (in Russian)

    http://wiz-aut.narod.ru/L040_falsifikacii_1_konkretno.htm#0_vstuplen

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  • Very disappointing showing from Zhirik. At least Sobchak got a good telling off.

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  • @melanf

    One can see even with the naked eye that there was far less fraud in 2018 than in 2011, though it is still much worse than in the 1990s.
     
    Is that a joke? Free from fraud the elections of 1996?

    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway. There was nothing like the endemic fraud across most Russian regions that appeared after 2000.

    Saying otherwise on TV, etc. is useful propaganda because it helps discredit Yeltsin and Americanism, but no need to drink the Kool Aid here.

    I criticized Shpilkin’s method in this very post. However, it is very far from not having value.

    Read More
    • Replies: @melanf

    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway.

     

    The candidate who had 5% of support of the population won with 53% of votes. Very funny.

    I criticized Shpilkin’s method in this very post.
     
    A fake method( fake both theoretically and empirically) that uses an absolutely conscious falsifier-propagandist Shpilkin " very far from not having value"?

    Almost all of what you write, you write very intelligently and based on facts. But I've seen 2 exceptions. The first exception - the assessment of the bridge in Vladivostok based on manipulation. The second is advertising of outright forger Spilkin


    Post Script - a very detailed analysis of fakes of Spilkin and Co (in Russian)
    http://wiz-aut.narod.ru/L040_falsifikacii_1_konkretno.htm#0_vstuplen

    , @reiner Tor
    Wasn't Chechnya also a likely case of mass fraud? Though it might have been too small to swing the election Yeltsin's way. (Or maybe the Chechens thought that Yeltsin would grant them de facto independence like he eventually did in August, and that Zyuganov wouldn't have done that?) Michael Meadowcroft certainly seemed to think that Chechnya was the most blatant example of fraud. Was he wrong?

    But looking at the data and polling results, it seems Yeltsin's lead was too large. I don't think 15% of the votes were fraudulent.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @melanf

    One can see even with the naked eye that there was far less fraud in 2018 than in 2011, though it is still much worse than in the 1990s.
     
    Is that a joke? Free from fraud the elections of 1996?

    I just asked this in the other thread. I read somewhere that even in 2000 Putin might have needed a second round, had it been truly free. (Not to mention the media.)

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  • One can see even with the naked eye that there was far less fraud in 2018 than in 2011, though it is still much worse than in the 1990s.

    Is that a joke? Free from fraud the elections of 1996?

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I just asked this in the other thread. I read somewhere that even in 2000 Putin might have needed a second round, had it been truly free. (Not to mention the media.)
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    There was moderate fraud in Tatarstan in the second round, but Yeltsin would have almost certainly won anyway. There was nothing like the endemic fraud across most Russian regions that appeared after 2000.

    Saying otherwise on TV, etc. is useful propaganda because it helps discredit Yeltsin and Americanism, but no need to drink the Kool Aid here.

    I criticized Shpilkin's method in this very post. However, it is very far from not having value.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Good data analysis [all in Russian]: Alexander Kireev, Dmitry Kobak, Sergey Shpilkin

    Sergey Shpilkin professional forger. He invented a “mathematical method” for determining electoral fraud. This method is based on the grossest errors and is a pseudoscience and method of manipulation. All these errors have long been analyzed, but Mr. Shpilkin ignoring criticism continues to use his method for propaganda purposes. That is Spilkin is absolutely a conscious liar (and not a naive person who sincerely believes in his theory). Any publication about the elections, in which Shpilkin is a co-author, can a priori be considered a conscious propaganda lie

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  • Good stuff,

    Tfw you know more about Russia than most Russians because of one blog।।

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  • The moustache is my main concern. Please do keep us updated.

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  • @Felix Keverich
    Anatoly,

    You have long advocated this idea that Russian public opinion polls are skewed against the liberals, and in reality "10% of Russians genuinely didn't support Crimea takeover". Did you find any evidence for this theory in last week's vote? Did the "10%" follow Navalny and largely stay home?

    Well, the polls were predicting 10% for Navalny in Moscow in 2013, I predicted he’d get 20% (way higher than almost any of my commenters), and yet even I underestimated him as he got 27%. I don’t think I ever claimed this would necessarily apply to Sobchachka (too many scandals, too huge an anti-rating) or to Yavlinsky (a worn out liberal whom nobody cares about now).

    The polls also didn’t predict Prokhorov in 2012, who was at 2-3% IIRC but ended up beating even Zhirik.

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  • Anatoly,

    You have long advocated this idea that Russian public opinion polls are skewed against the liberals, and in reality “10% of Russians genuinely didn’t support Crimea takeover”. Did you find any evidence for this theory in last week’s vote? Did the “10%” follow Navalny and largely stay home?

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Well, the polls were predicting 10% for Navalny in Moscow in 2013, I predicted he'd get 20% (way higher than almost any of my commenters), and yet even I underestimated him as he got 27%. I don't think I ever claimed this would necessarily apply to Sobchachka (too many scandals, too huge an anti-rating) or to Yavlinsky (a worn out liberal whom nobody cares about now).

    The polls also didn't predict Prokhorov in 2012, who was at 2-3% IIRC but ended up beating even Zhirik.
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  • the commie boomers are dying out

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  • Someone with a twitter account should tell Ed that unlike the banana republic where he is from, in Russia people without an ID and who are not even citizens can’t vote, unlike the millions of illegals that voted for Hillary.

    I like how these people comment on videos which exist because of the Russian authorities and their cameras in the first place, as proof that the elections are not legitimate or something because of some minor incidents that have obviously been taken care of.

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    • Replies: @bb.
    this case looks like a set-up honestly. why would you commit fraud so blatantly, if you KNEW and SAW a camera behind you?...a performance really.
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  • Western media: Opposition leader Navalny is "tapping into the anger of a younger generation yearning for change", and devotes frontline coverage to his "elections boycott" protest. Reality: Putin is polling 62% amongst young people, versus 76% amongst the elderly (FOM poll, including people who don't know/don't intend to vote), and the event was itself boycotted...
  • @Singh
    Russian should be with Russian worse case another Slav।।

    Tell her how gay Western men are explain the concept of wearing mini skirts to protest gangrape & I doubt she'll want to move.

    Russian should be with Russian worse case another Slav।।

    Well it’s a controversial topic, but (as long as it doesn’t involve converting to some nihilistic ideology like Islamism) I cannot see the problem of people marrying different nationalities. The kids are often better looking than the parents in those cases.

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  • Und ist dabei auch noch gut für Babys Bäuchlein!

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  • @Brabantian
    My impression from conversations with various Russians - including a Russian girl furiously swiping along Tinder to find an EU boyfriend to help her along an emigration path -

    Is that Vladimir Putin is, a bit crudely, keeping a lid on a number of contradictory political forces that would to some degree balloon in activity and influence if allowed to do so

    Russian nationalists of the Igor Strelkov Girkin variety ... a full-blown Western-backed Poz group of SJW gangsters ... and a few new-wave red socialists and some Romanov monarchists

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums

    She had a picture of herself which she thought was good, skimpy lingerie and heels and holding a plush toy teddy bear ... but the look on her face in that pic was quite Russian-tough-hard, a bit of a mis-match with the soft toy 'girlish' theme, I advised against it

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares

    We had that in the 1990′s. Not surprisingly, a group of seven Jews ended up running the country despite the non-stop media flurry of contradictory crud.

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  • @Felix Keverich

    Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?
     
    lol I'm pretty sure the entire English-language internet functions like this now!

    Mr Hack's apparent purpose on this forum is to annoy us - that's the very definition of a troll. IMO it is perfectly OK to shut him down.

    Apparently Karlin doesn’t ‘annoy’ as easily as you do – he valued my opinion enough to quote me within this thread! Quit your whining you ninny! :-(

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  • @Felix Keverich

    Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?
     
    lol I'm pretty sure the entire English-language internet functions like this now!

    Mr Hack's apparent purpose on this forum is to annoy us - that's the very definition of a troll. IMO it is perfectly OK to shut him down.

    I think Mr. Hack sincerely holds his opinions, and he comes across as a decent person, even if I don’t quite agree with him. I also think his purpose is to represent his sincerely held opinions, which is different from a troll. I don’t always read what he writes, but that’s my general impression of him.

    I could go on and on naming other commenters who I often disagree with, but I don’t want them banned.

    For what it’s worth, I often disagree with you as well, but I don’t think it’d improve this forum if you were banned from here. It’s better to avoid the echo chamber and at least be aware of other opinions out there.

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    • Agree: German_reader
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  • @neutral

    I do believe you have the authority to ban users?
     
    Can't say I agree with him, but why would you ban him? Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?

    Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?

    lol I’m pretty sure the entire English-language internet functions like this now!

    Mr Hack‘s apparent purpose on this forum is to annoy us – that’s the very definition of a troll. IMO it is perfectly OK to shut him down.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I think Mr. Hack sincerely holds his opinions, and he comes across as a decent person, even if I don’t quite agree with him. I also think his purpose is to represent his sincerely held opinions, which is different from a troll. I don’t always read what he writes, but that’s my general impression of him.

    I could go on and on naming other commenters who I often disagree with, but I don’t want them banned.

    For what it’s worth, I often disagree with you as well, but I don’t think it’d improve this forum if you were banned from here. It’s better to avoid the echo chamber and at least be aware of other opinions out there.
    , @Mr. Hack
    Apparently Karlin doesn't 'annoy' as easily as you do - he valued my opinion enough to quote me within this thread! Quit your whining you ninny! :-(
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  • It’s not that Men who go after Russian women are fucked up it’s that they’re the enemy of Russian Men।।

    We have Russian friends they don’t have Indian Girlfriends We don’t have Russian ones।।

    You’ll reject a few whores for the sake of your brothers.

    If they’re worth anything।।

    Jai Shri Perun

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  • @Anon
    You should advise her about dating Anglo / Germanic dudes - there is a huge cultural difference there, she may not expect that they'll treat her as a Western woman at the end of the day (expect her to act like a man, etc). There will be a huge cultural shock. She should know before she embarks on a taxing and difficult endeavor such as emigration.

    Russian should be with Russian worse case another Slav।।

    Tell her how gay Western men are explain the concept of wearing mini skirts to protest gangrape & I doubt she’ll want to move.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Russian should be with Russian worse case another Slav।।

     

    Well it's a controversial topic, but (as long as it doesn't involve converting to some nihilistic ideology like Islamism) I cannot see the problem of people marrying different nationalities. The kids are often better looking than the parents in those cases.
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  • @Beckow

    US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy
     
    The crucial mistake was also breaking the promises/treaties/UN resolutions, e.g. ABM missiles, Libya, etc... That made pro-West elements in the Russian leadership look like idiots and worse. People like Medvedev lost face.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren't going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what's the point of even having a treaty?

    We have Russia that West has created with its myopic policies.

    Mohammad also said only follow treaties until it’s convenient।।

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  • @neutral
    That fatty looks like your standard SJW that wants mass immigration, miscegnation, gay pride parades, "diversity" and so on. Most just see it as a joke, but I wouldn't if I were you, he poses a very serious threat to Russia. You still think I am talking rubbish then look at the enormous power they have in the post Western world.

    Navalny is probably being funded by the CIA in some way, and since the overthrow of the regime is a very high priority for the deep state, these SJWs make excellent infiltrators for regime change plans. Just like the previous big sporting events, I am expecting some kind of colour revolution stunt during the World Cup.

    With amount of funds around & subcontractors being funded by Cia doesn’t have same ring to it that it did 50 years ago.

    Cia funding is also the point, these movements have no staying power without outside support.

    Russian Rodnover have a very high tfr & Ethnic religions are the fastest growing in FSU in general.

    Honestly, only part of world I’m not worried about।।

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  • @Mitleser

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).
     
    Putin 2.0 is not what the leadership wants, quite the opposite.

    Jacob Heilbrunn: Were you expecting Vladimir Putin to announce once again that he would run for the Russian presidency—or were you surprised?

    Andranik Migranyan: I was not surprised. Even a year or two years ago, I knew that he was going to run. He is a man on a mission. He has not accomplished his mission. I hope that he is going to accomplish it during his next six-year term.

    JH: What is the mission?

    AM: In 2012, right on the eve of the elections, the previous elections, I together with a small group of political scientists had a meeting with him outside of Moscow. He talked a lot about the steering of the governmental machine, and when you are manually steering it. His idea was that in such a large country, you can’t manually steer everywhere. Instead, you need to have well-established and developed institutions. This is my memory of that meeting--he said he’ll be satisfied if institutions will work and he will not have any problems when he leaves. He feels sure everything will work in a proper way when he leaves. That’s why for me it’s not a surprise. This mission he has not yet accomplished. I hope this is the problem he will address in the six years.

    JH: But in Russia today, there isn’t a succession plan. On the contrary, power is centered around Putin with no real plan for the future. How do you alter that?

    AM: He wants to transfer from personalistic to institutional power. How do you do that? This is the most important and difficult task. I think he will try to go in way of redistribution of power between executive and legislative. Who knows? There might be some changes in the constitution.
     
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-souring-donald-trump-23554

    Interesting interview, thanks.

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  • @Dmitry
    If you recall, Putin has had three terms as President. First-term -2000-2004, Second-term 2004-2008, and third-term 2012-2018.

    In the first two terms (2000-2008), he did very well, with few mistakes. In the third-term (2012-2018), he started making mistakes, changing priorities, lack of fresh proposals for the country.

    This can be quite typical of a leader after they have been in power for over a decade or so, and it happens even to ones who were originally very competent.

    As for the current situation, it's not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    The current political scene is like a football team with a terrible substitutes bench. So even if your star player is starting to get tired, and started missing some shots - it's still better to keep him on the field.

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    Yes, the succession to the throne will be a nail-biter. The trouble for Russia is that it desperately needs another excellent executive. No room for error here.

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  • @Mitleser

    In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years
     
    Merkel has been a part of the ruling elite in Germany since 1991.

    Merkel has been a part of the ruling elite in Germany since 1991

    …and she might have been a part of the East German elite before that. I think she said that when the Wall was coming down she went to a sauna.

    But I meant she was elected in 2005, after Washington said that Schroeder had to go…(I think Villepin in France was removed at the same time, neo-cons were settling scores after Iraq.)

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  • @Niccolo Salo
    Hi Beckow, great to see you here. I used to post with you on Russia threads years ago at The Guardian as "Noble Donkey". I imagine that you, like I, had many of your posts deleted and just gave up (when they actually do open a piece for comments).

    Hey, I remember. Good to see you here too. I abandoned The Guardian because of what can only be called their censorship. They have really gone down…

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  • @Beckow

    he’s been at the top of the heap for 20 years...
     
    He has not, more like 17-18 years. In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years, I believe Chirac ruled for 12-14 years, Thatcher too, etc...

    I get your point, and on a certain level it bothers me too. Longevity in office by itself is not authoritarian, although it is one of the symptoms. Smart analysis looks at each situation as is, on its own terms, and not in generic stereotypes. Given Russia in 2000-2020, given what most people there clearly want, given the resulting undeniable preferences, given the nature of alternatives, what is better? Should they stick to a longevity rule that even in the West has been occasionally broken, or should they optimise for the situation Russia is in?

    We don't know how this story will end. My hunch is that when people look back Putin's staying power and his dominant political presence will not be what they celebrate or denounce. These are clearly unique circumstances. If you don't like Putin, criticise what you don't like, not the process around it.

    In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years

    Merkel has been a part of the ruling elite in Germany since 1991.

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    • Replies: @Beckow

    Merkel has been a part of the ruling elite in Germany since 1991
     
    ...and she might have been a part of the East German elite before that. I think she said that when the Wall was coming down she went to a sauna.

    But I meant she was elected in 2005, after Washington said that Schroeder had to go...(I think Villepin in France was removed at the same time, neo-cons were settling scores after Iraq.)

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  • @Dmitry
    If you recall, Putin has had three terms as President. First-term -2000-2004, Second-term 2004-2008, and third-term 2012-2018.

    In the first two terms (2000-2008), he did very well, with few mistakes. In the third-term (2012-2018), he started making mistakes, changing priorities, lack of fresh proposals for the country.

    This can be quite typical of a leader after they have been in power for over a decade or so, and it happens even to ones who were originally very competent.

    As for the current situation, it's not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    The current political scene is like a football team with a terrible substitutes bench. So even if your star player is starting to get tired, and started missing some shots - it's still better to keep him on the field.

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    Putin 2.0 is not what the leadership wants, quite the opposite.

    Jacob Heilbrunn: Were you expecting Vladimir Putin to announce once again that he would run for the Russian presidency—or were you surprised?

    Andranik Migranyan: I was not surprised. Even a year or two years ago, I knew that he was going to run. He is a man on a mission. He has not accomplished his mission. I hope that he is going to accomplish it during his next six-year term.

    JH: What is the mission?

    AM: In 2012, right on the eve of the elections, the previous elections, I together with a small group of political scientists had a meeting with him outside of Moscow. He talked a lot about the steering of the governmental machine, and when you are manually steering it. His idea was that in such a large country, you can’t manually steer everywhere. Instead, you need to have well-established and developed institutions. This is my memory of that meeting–he said he’ll be satisfied if institutions will work and he will not have any problems when he leaves. He feels sure everything will work in a proper way when he leaves. That’s why for me it’s not a surprise. This mission he has not yet accomplished. I hope this is the problem he will address in the six years.

    JH: But in Russia today, there isn’t a succession plan. On the contrary, power is centered around Putin with no real plan for the future. How do you alter that?

    AM: He wants to transfer from personalistic to institutional power. How do you do that? This is the most important and difficult task. I think he will try to go in way of redistribution of power between executive and legislative. Who knows? There might be some changes in the constitution.

    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-souring-donald-trump-23554

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Interesting interview, thanks.
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  • @Ali Choudhury
    The country would have been in much better shape if Alexei Kudrin had been Putin's partner, not Medvedev. Russia is operating considerably far below its potential which is why the best and smartest Russians continue to try to leave the country.

    And Kudrin would kill off the rest of the potential.

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  • @Swedish Family

    He has not, more like 17-18 years.
     
    There is also the argument that the "Putin era" is made up of at least three distinct periods -- the long 90s (until 2004 or so), the "golden afternoon" (about 2004 to 2012), and the new cold war (2012 to present) -- so in a sense, we have had different Putins over the years. The Medvedev interlude could also be counted as a minor break from Putin's rule. Michael McFaul thought as much in a 2016 interview, where he said that the US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev's degree of autonomy.

    If you recall, Putin has had three terms as President. First-term -2000-2004, Second-term 2004-2008, and third-term 2012-2018.

    In the first two terms (2000-2008), he did very well, with few mistakes. In the third-term (2012-2018), he started making mistakes, changing priorities, lack of fresh proposals for the country.

    This can be quite typical of a leader after they have been in power for over a decade or so, and it happens even to ones who were originally very competent.

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    The current political scene is like a football team with a terrible substitutes bench. So even if your star player is starting to get tired, and started missing some shots – it’s still better to keep him on the field.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).
     
    Putin 2.0 is not what the leadership wants, quite the opposite.

    Jacob Heilbrunn: Were you expecting Vladimir Putin to announce once again that he would run for the Russian presidency—or were you surprised?

    Andranik Migranyan: I was not surprised. Even a year or two years ago, I knew that he was going to run. He is a man on a mission. He has not accomplished his mission. I hope that he is going to accomplish it during his next six-year term.

    JH: What is the mission?

    AM: In 2012, right on the eve of the elections, the previous elections, I together with a small group of political scientists had a meeting with him outside of Moscow. He talked a lot about the steering of the governmental machine, and when you are manually steering it. His idea was that in such a large country, you can’t manually steer everywhere. Instead, you need to have well-established and developed institutions. This is my memory of that meeting--he said he’ll be satisfied if institutions will work and he will not have any problems when he leaves. He feels sure everything will work in a proper way when he leaves. That’s why for me it’s not a surprise. This mission he has not yet accomplished. I hope this is the problem he will address in the six years.

    JH: But in Russia today, there isn’t a succession plan. On the contrary, power is centered around Putin with no real plan for the future. How do you alter that?

    AM: He wants to transfer from personalistic to institutional power. How do you do that? This is the most important and difficult task. I think he will try to go in way of redistribution of power between executive and legislative. Who knows? There might be some changes in the constitution.
     
    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-souring-donald-trump-23554
    , @Swedish Family

    As for the current situation, it’s not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).
     
    Yes, the succession to the throne will be a nail-biter. The trouble for Russia is that it desperately needs another excellent executive. No room for error here.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Swedish Family

    He has not, more like 17-18 years.
     
    There is also the argument that the "Putin era" is made up of at least three distinct periods -- the long 90s (until 2004 or so), the "golden afternoon" (about 2004 to 2012), and the new cold war (2012 to present) -- so in a sense, we have had different Putins over the years. The Medvedev interlude could also be counted as a minor break from Putin's rule. Michael McFaul thought as much in a 2016 interview, where he said that the US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev's degree of autonomy.

    What I noted during that time was the constant flood of thinkpieces in western media trying to create a split between Medvedev and Putin. As we know they all failed.

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  • @Beckow

    US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy
     
    The crucial mistake was also breaking the promises/treaties/UN resolutions, e.g. ABM missiles, Libya, etc... That made pro-West elements in the Russian leadership look like idiots and worse. People like Medvedev lost face.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren't going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what's the point of even having a treaty?

    We have Russia that West has created with its myopic policies.

    Hi Beckow, great to see you here. I used to post with you on Russia threads years ago at The Guardian as “Noble Donkey”. I imagine that you, like I, had many of your posts deleted and just gave up (when they actually do open a piece for comments).

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    • Replies: @Beckow
    Hey, I remember. Good to see you here too. I abandoned The Guardian because of what can only be called their censorship. They have really gone down...
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Brabantian
    My impression from conversations with various Russians - including a Russian girl furiously swiping along Tinder to find an EU boyfriend to help her along an emigration path -

    Is that Vladimir Putin is, a bit crudely, keeping a lid on a number of contradictory political forces that would to some degree balloon in activity and influence if allowed to do so

    Russian nationalists of the Igor Strelkov Girkin variety ... a full-blown Western-backed Poz group of SJW gangsters ... and a few new-wave red socialists and some Romanov monarchists

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums

    She had a picture of herself which she thought was good, skimpy lingerie and heels and holding a plush toy teddy bear ... but the look on her face in that pic was quite Russian-tough-hard, a bit of a mis-match with the soft toy 'girlish' theme, I advised against it

    You should advise her about dating Anglo / Germanic dudes – there is a huge cultural difference there, she may not expect that they’ll treat her as a Western woman at the end of the day (expect her to act like a man, etc). There will be a huge cultural shock. She should know before she embarks on a taxing and difficult endeavor such as emigration.

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    • Replies: @Singh
    Russian should be with Russian worse case another Slav।।

    Tell her how gay Western men are explain the concept of wearing mini skirts to protest gangrape & I doubt she'll want to move.
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  • @neutral

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums
     
    I am sorry for causing you inevitable anger, but this needs to be said, she is basically whoring herself out, why are you helping out this tart? She clearly has zero self respect and thus you should give her none - unless you also have zero self respect. I also need to raise the fact that guys that look for Russian brides are not normally great men.

    Can’t have it both ways. Are guys looking for Russian girls losers? Surely in which case they’ll deserve her?

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  • @Felix Keverich
    Anatoly,

    There is a simple solution for your Mr Hack problem.

    I do believe you have the authority to ban users?

    I do believe you have the authority to ban users?

    Can’t say I agree with him, but why would you ban him? Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?

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    • Agree: reiner Tor, AP, German_reader
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?
     
    lol I'm pretty sure the entire English-language internet functions like this now!

    Mr Hack's apparent purpose on this forum is to annoy us - that's the very definition of a troll. IMO it is perfectly OK to shut him down.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Beckow

    US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy
     
    The crucial mistake was also breaking the promises/treaties/UN resolutions, e.g. ABM missiles, Libya, etc... That made pro-West elements in the Russian leadership look like idiots and worse. People like Medvedev lost face.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren't going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what's the point of even having a treaty?

    We have Russia that West has created with its myopic policies.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren’t going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what’s the point of even having a treaty?

    Yes, I agree, and this “defection strategy” is bad for Russians and Westerners alike, since it also creates instability.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @neutral
    What precisely would you want to happen Russia if you could have everything go the way exactly how you think it should be? Navalny is not some kind of Mandela that will receive 80% of the votes if only people were allowed to vote for him, even the most virulent anti Russians in America (other than perhaps the complete nuts like Mensch) don't seriously believe this guy can get more than 5% of the vote. So who else, another jew like Poroshenko (that happens to be as popular as the one before him that the CIA ousted). Give me a name, a concrete name, who is this great democratic leader that Russians are yearning to vote for?

    There is nothing that indicates to me that Putin did not win all elections with the most votes. Term limits are another debate, but I doubt you think that Merkel or Kohl, that are also very long termed leaders, should be called "presidents for life".

    The country would have been in much better shape if Alexei Kudrin had been Putin’s partner, not Medvedev. Russia is operating considerably far below its potential which is why the best and smartest Russians continue to try to leave the country.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    And Kudrin would kill off the rest of the potential.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @neutral

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums
     
    I am sorry for causing you inevitable anger, but this needs to be said, she is basically whoring herself out, why are you helping out this tart? She clearly has zero self respect and thus you should give her none - unless you also have zero self respect. I also need to raise the fact that guys that look for Russian brides are not normally great men.

    Dunno, seems like a patriotic thing to do for him to assist Russian thots emigrate, so the country will be comparatively more thot-less. Will that increase the cognitive capability of the remainder?!!

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. Hack

    Now commenter Mr. Hack believes that I am wasting my time on this “chimera” of an election and he might just have a point, if for rather different reasons than what he posits.
     
    You don't see Putin's term in office as an authoritarian one, characterized by his unassailable position as a 'President for life'? Between him being president and installing his puppet Medvedev as the president while he was the Premier for a term, he's been at the top of the heap for 20 years, and add another term or two...well, you're pretty smart, you can do the math. Joseph Stalin would be envious of Putin's 'hard earned' popularity in Russia. ;-)

    Yes, Stalin would have to be, since Stalin essentially slaughtered his way to stay in power and whatever Putin’s faults are, he hasn’t displayed anywhere close to that murderous nature. This comparison is asinine.

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Swedish Family

    He has not, more like 17-18 years.
     
    There is also the argument that the "Putin era" is made up of at least three distinct periods -- the long 90s (until 2004 or so), the "golden afternoon" (about 2004 to 2012), and the new cold war (2012 to present) -- so in a sense, we have had different Putins over the years. The Medvedev interlude could also be counted as a minor break from Putin's rule. Michael McFaul thought as much in a 2016 interview, where he said that the US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev's degree of autonomy.

    US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy

    The crucial mistake was also breaking the promises/treaties/UN resolutions, e.g. ABM missiles, Libya, etc… That made pro-West elements in the Russian leadership look like idiots and worse. People like Medvedev lost face.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren’t going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what’s the point of even having a treaty?

    We have Russia that West has created with its myopic policies.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren’t going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what’s the point of even having a treaty?
     
    Yes, I agree, and this "defection strategy" is bad for Russians and Westerners alike, since it also creates instability.
    , @Niccolo Salo
    Hi Beckow, great to see you here. I used to post with you on Russia threads years ago at The Guardian as "Noble Donkey". I imagine that you, like I, had many of your posts deleted and just gave up (when they actually do open a piece for comments).
    , @Singh
    Mohammad also said only follow treaties until it's convenient।।
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anatoly,

    There is a simple solution for your Mr Hack problem.

    I do believe you have the authority to ban users?

    Read More
    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @neutral

    I do believe you have the authority to ban users?
     
    Can't say I agree with him, but why would you ban him? Is this now supposed to be SJW type forum where only agreed on opinions are allowed?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Brabantian
    My impression from conversations with various Russians - including a Russian girl furiously swiping along Tinder to find an EU boyfriend to help her along an emigration path -

    Is that Vladimir Putin is, a bit crudely, keeping a lid on a number of contradictory political forces that would to some degree balloon in activity and influence if allowed to do so

    Russian nationalists of the Igor Strelkov Girkin variety ... a full-blown Western-backed Poz group of SJW gangsters ... and a few new-wave red socialists and some Romanov monarchists

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums

    She had a picture of herself which she thought was good, skimpy lingerie and heels and holding a plush toy teddy bear ... but the look on her face in that pic was quite Russian-tough-hard, a bit of a mis-match with the soft toy 'girlish' theme, I advised against it

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums

    I am sorry for causing you inevitable anger, but this needs to be said, she is basically whoring herself out, why are you helping out this tart? She clearly has zero self respect and thus you should give her none – unless you also have zero self respect. I also need to raise the fact that guys that look for Russian brides are not normally great men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Dunno, seems like a patriotic thing to do for him to assist Russian thots emigrate, so the country will be comparatively more thot-less. Will that increase the cognitive capability of the remainder?!!
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    Can't have it both ways. Are guys looking for Russian girls losers? Surely in which case they'll deserve her?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Beckow

    he’s been at the top of the heap for 20 years...
     
    He has not, more like 17-18 years. In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years, I believe Chirac ruled for 12-14 years, Thatcher too, etc...

    I get your point, and on a certain level it bothers me too. Longevity in office by itself is not authoritarian, although it is one of the symptoms. Smart analysis looks at each situation as is, on its own terms, and not in generic stereotypes. Given Russia in 2000-2020, given what most people there clearly want, given the resulting undeniable preferences, given the nature of alternatives, what is better? Should they stick to a longevity rule that even in the West has been occasionally broken, or should they optimise for the situation Russia is in?

    We don't know how this story will end. My hunch is that when people look back Putin's staying power and his dominant political presence will not be what they celebrate or denounce. These are clearly unique circumstances. If you don't like Putin, criticise what you don't like, not the process around it.

    He has not, more like 17-18 years.

    There is also the argument that the “Putin era” is made up of at least three distinct periods — the long 90s (until 2004 or so), the “golden afternoon” (about 2004 to 2012), and the new cold war (2012 to present) — so in a sense, we have had different Putins over the years. The Medvedev interlude could also be counted as a minor break from Putin’s rule. Michael McFaul thought as much in a 2016 interview, where he said that the US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beckow

    US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev’s degree of autonomy
     
    The crucial mistake was also breaking the promises/treaties/UN resolutions, e.g. ABM missiles, Libya, etc... That made pro-West elements in the Russian leadership look like idiots and worse. People like Medvedev lost face.

    This is almost a mental disease among Western elites, including McFaul. They think that agreements are only observed as long as they are useful for the West. But the whole point of any contract is that provides guarantees when things aren't going well, when there are disputes. Otherwise what's the point of even having a treaty?

    We have Russia that West has created with its myopic policies.
    , @Niccolo Salo
    What I noted during that time was the constant flood of thinkpieces in western media trying to create a split between Medvedev and Putin. As we know they all failed.
    , @Dmitry
    If you recall, Putin has had three terms as President. First-term -2000-2004, Second-term 2004-2008, and third-term 2012-2018.

    In the first two terms (2000-2008), he did very well, with few mistakes. In the third-term (2012-2018), he started making mistakes, changing priorities, lack of fresh proposals for the country.

    This can be quite typical of a leader after they have been in power for over a decade or so, and it happens even to ones who were originally very competent.

    As for the current situation, it's not only a popularity issue, but there is really no-one on the scene of the same talent level as Putin, and who have his personal skills (which is one area where he has improved over the years), or even a suitable personality for appealing to the public (Medvedev just demonstrates a consistent personality for pissing off normal-income citizens).

    The current political scene is like a football team with a terrible substitutes bench. So even if your star player is starting to get tired, and started missing some shots - it's still better to keep him on the field.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • My impression from conversations with various Russians – including a Russian girl furiously swiping along Tinder to find an EU boyfriend to help her along an emigration path -

    Is that Vladimir Putin is, a bit crudely, keeping a lid on a number of contradictory political forces that would to some degree balloon in activity and influence if allowed to do so

    Russian nationalists of the Igor Strelkov Girkin variety … a full-blown Western-backed Poz group of SJW gangsters … and a few new-wave red socialists and some Romanov monarchists

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums

    She had a picture of herself which she thought was good, skimpy lingerie and heels and holding a plush toy teddy bear … but the look on her face in that pic was quite Russian-tough-hard, a bit of a mis-match with the soft toy ‘girlish’ theme, I advised against it

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral

    For the Russian girl asking for ideas on meeting EU males, I tried to help her select some of her photos for the dating forums
     
    I am sorry for causing you inevitable anger, but this needs to be said, she is basically whoring herself out, why are you helping out this tart? She clearly has zero self respect and thus you should give her none - unless you also have zero self respect. I also need to raise the fact that guys that look for Russian brides are not normally great men.
    , @Anon
    You should advise her about dating Anglo / Germanic dudes - there is a huge cultural difference there, she may not expect that they'll treat her as a Western woman at the end of the day (expect her to act like a man, etc). There will be a huge cultural shock. She should know before she embarks on a taxing and difficult endeavor such as emigration.
    , @anonymous coward

    Not that Putin might not remain the plurality choice, but it seems one can imagine a different media etc environment in which Russian politics could be quite different, if the factions were really allowed to battle it out and peddle their wares
     
    We had that in the 1990's. Not surprisingly, a group of seven Jews ended up running the country despite the non-stop media flurry of contradictory crud.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. Hack

    Now commenter Mr. Hack believes that I am wasting my time on this “chimera” of an election and he might just have a point, if for rather different reasons than what he posits.
     
    You don't see Putin's term in office as an authoritarian one, characterized by his unassailable position as a 'President for life'? Between him being president and installing his puppet Medvedev as the president while he was the Premier for a term, he's been at the top of the heap for 20 years, and add another term or two...well, you're pretty smart, you can do the math. Joseph Stalin would be envious of Putin's 'hard earned' popularity in Russia. ;-)

    he’s been at the top of the heap for 20 years…

    He has not, more like 17-18 years. In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years, I believe Chirac ruled for 12-14 years, Thatcher too, etc…

    I get your point, and on a certain level it bothers me too. Longevity in office by itself is not authoritarian, although it is one of the symptoms. Smart analysis looks at each situation as is, on its own terms, and not in generic stereotypes. Given Russia in 2000-2020, given what most people there clearly want, given the resulting undeniable preferences, given the nature of alternatives, what is better? Should they stick to a longevity rule that even in the West has been occasionally broken, or should they optimise for the situation Russia is in?

    We don’t know how this story will end. My hunch is that when people look back Putin’s staying power and his dominant political presence will not be what they celebrate or denounce. These are clearly unique circumstances. If you don’t like Putin, criticise what you don’t like, not the process around it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    He has not, more like 17-18 years.
     
    There is also the argument that the "Putin era" is made up of at least three distinct periods -- the long 90s (until 2004 or so), the "golden afternoon" (about 2004 to 2012), and the new cold war (2012 to present) -- so in a sense, we have had different Putins over the years. The Medvedev interlude could also be counted as a minor break from Putin's rule. Michael McFaul thought as much in a 2016 interview, where he said that the US made a great mistake in underestimating Medvedev's degree of autonomy.
    , @Mitleser

    In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years
     
    Merkel has been a part of the ruling elite in Germany since 1991.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. Hack

    Now commenter Mr. Hack believes that I am wasting my time on this “chimera” of an election and he might just have a point, if for rather different reasons than what he posits.
     
    You don't see Putin's term in office as an authoritarian one, characterized by his unassailable position as a 'President for life'? Between him being president and installing his puppet Medvedev as the president while he was the Premier for a term, he's been at the top of the heap for 20 years, and add another term or two...well, you're pretty smart, you can do the math. Joseph Stalin would be envious of Putin's 'hard earned' popularity in Russia. ;-)

    What precisely would you want to happen Russia if you could have everything go the way exactly how you think it should be? Navalny is not some kind of Mandela that will receive 80% of the votes if only people were allowed to vote for him, even the most virulent anti Russians in America (other than perhaps the complete nuts like Mensch) don’t seriously believe this guy can get more than 5% of the vote. So who else, another jew like Poroshenko (that happens to be as popular as the one before him that the CIA ousted). Give me a name, a concrete name, who is this great democratic leader that Russians are yearning to vote for?

    There is nothing that indicates to me that Putin did not win all elections with the most votes. Term limits are another debate, but I doubt you think that Merkel or Kohl, that are also very long termed leaders, should be called “presidents for life”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ali Choudhury
    The country would have been in much better shape if Alexei Kudrin had been Putin's partner, not Medvedev. Russia is operating considerably far below its potential which is why the best and smartest Russians continue to try to leave the country.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Now commenter Mr. Hack believes that I am wasting my time on this “chimera” of an election and he might just have a point, if for rather different reasons than what he posits.

    You don’t see Putin’s term in office as an authoritarian one, characterized by his unassailable position as a ‘President for life’? Between him being president and installing his puppet Medvedev as the president while he was the Premier for a term, he’s been at the top of the heap for 20 years, and add another term or two…well, you’re pretty smart, you can do the math. Joseph Stalin would be envious of Putin’s ‘hard earned’ popularity in Russia. ;-)

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral
    What precisely would you want to happen Russia if you could have everything go the way exactly how you think it should be? Navalny is not some kind of Mandela that will receive 80% of the votes if only people were allowed to vote for him, even the most virulent anti Russians in America (other than perhaps the complete nuts like Mensch) don't seriously believe this guy can get more than 5% of the vote. So who else, another jew like Poroshenko (that happens to be as popular as the one before him that the CIA ousted). Give me a name, a concrete name, who is this great democratic leader that Russians are yearning to vote for?

    There is nothing that indicates to me that Putin did not win all elections with the most votes. Term limits are another debate, but I doubt you think that Merkel or Kohl, that are also very long termed leaders, should be called "presidents for life".
    , @Beckow

    he’s been at the top of the heap for 20 years...
     
    He has not, more like 17-18 years. In comparison, Merkel is still going strong after 13 years, I believe Chirac ruled for 12-14 years, Thatcher too, etc...

    I get your point, and on a certain level it bothers me too. Longevity in office by itself is not authoritarian, although it is one of the symptoms. Smart analysis looks at each situation as is, on its own terms, and not in generic stereotypes. Given Russia in 2000-2020, given what most people there clearly want, given the resulting undeniable preferences, given the nature of alternatives, what is better? Should they stick to a longevity rule that even in the West has been occasionally broken, or should they optimise for the situation Russia is in?

    We don't know how this story will end. My hunch is that when people look back Putin's staying power and his dominant political presence will not be what they celebrate or denounce. These are clearly unique circumstances. If you don't like Putin, criticise what you don't like, not the process around it.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    Yes, Stalin would have to be, since Stalin essentially slaughtered his way to stay in power and whatever Putin's faults are, he hasn't displayed anywhere close to that murderous nature. This comparison is asinine.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • That fatty looks like your standard SJW that wants mass immigration, miscegnation, gay pride parades, “diversity” and so on. Most just see it as a joke, but I wouldn’t if I were you, he poses a very serious threat to Russia. You still think I am talking rubbish then look at the enormous power they have in the post Western world.

    Navalny is probably being funded by the CIA in some way, and since the overthrow of the regime is a very high priority for the deep state, these SJWs make excellent infiltrators for regime change plans. Just like the previous big sporting events, I am expecting some kind of colour revolution stunt during the World Cup.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Singh
    With amount of funds around & subcontractors being funded by Cia doesn't have same ring to it that it did 50 years ago.

    Cia funding is also the point, these movements have no staying power without outside support.

    Russian Rodnover have a very high tfr & Ethnic religions are the fastest growing in FSU in general.

    Honestly, only part of world I'm not worried about।।
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Navalny claimed that the state-owned pollsters VCIOM were artificially inflating Putin's figures, so his Anti-Corruption Fund will start releasing their own weekly polls, the first of which has just been released in Navalny's latest video address. Reminder that Putin got 66% in the last FOM poll, and 73% in the last VCIOM poll. FBK poll:...
  • @Swedish Family

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).
     
    Yes, indeed, that's why I wrote "at one time or other." A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev's "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western "troll factory" in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.

    So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga

    It’s hard for me to believe in the existence of “Troll factory”
    Given the current volume of online communication, a hypothetical “Troll factory” will have zero impact. Suppose the Russian government hired 100, maybe even 1000 trolls that 8 hours a day, write “Hilary – shit.” These trolls have a challenge with 250 000 000 US Internet users (or similarly, American trolls have a challenge with 100 000 000 Russia Internet users). The influence of Russian (or American) trolls will eventually be equal to 0. Trying to influence the election by such “trolls” – it’s the same as trying with a spoon of sugar to make the ocean water sweet.

    It is obvious that the elite of different countries are trying to manipulate people via the Internet, but obviously they must use other tools than useless “Troll factory”

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Chet Bradley

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.
     
    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don't know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other
     
    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How's that "well-functioning democracy" working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    This proposal has been misrepresented in international media. On clarifying his position, our PM said that the idea is for the military to relieve police officers on border-guard duty in case of emergency, thereby increasing the pool of available police officers. The military will never come into contact with rioters or gangs. I should point out, too, that this proposal was originally floated by the leader of Sweden’s nationalist party, the Sweden Democrats, who in turn picked up the idea from Denmark, so it’s actually a good example of democracy in action.

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @melanf

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).
     
    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and "the West" in another - Тrump or Мacron can't announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    Yes, indeed, that’s why I wrote “at one time or other.” A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev’s “Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible,” the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.

    Read More
    • Replies: @melanf

    So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga
     
    It's hard for me to believe in the existence of "Troll factory"
    Given the current volume of online communication, a hypothetical "Troll factory" will have zero impact. Suppose the Russian government hired 100, maybe even 1000 trolls that 8 hours a day, write "Hilary - shit." These trolls have a challenge with 250 000 000 US Internet users (or similarly, American trolls have a challenge with 100 000 000 Russia Internet users). The influence of Russian (or American) trolls will eventually be equal to 0. Trying to influence the election by such "trolls" - it's the same as trying with a spoon of sugar to make the ocean water sweet.

    It is obvious that the elite of different countries are trying to manipulate people via the Internet, but obviously they must use other tools than useless "Troll factory"
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.

    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don’t know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other

    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?
     
    This proposal has been misrepresented in international media. On clarifying his position, our PM said that the idea is for the military to relieve police officers on border-guard duty in case of emergency, thereby increasing the pool of available police officers. The military will never come into contact with rioters or gangs. I should point out, too, that this proposal was originally floated by the leader of Sweden's nationalist party, the Sweden Democrats, who in turn picked up the idea from Denmark, so it's actually a good example of democracy in action.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • How is the Euro media reacting to the shutdown?

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    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and “the West” in another – Тrump or Мacron can’t announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).
     
    Yes, indeed, that's why I wrote "at one time or other." A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev's "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western "troll factory" in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.
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  • @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    That is atleast partially or even largely propaganda, double standards and half-truths. Voter fraud is also so minimal compared to UR’s popularity that it actually makes next to no difference.

    To Western media, other Duma parties don’t count as the opposition, because they’re not hostile enough to Russian establishment and to Putin. And of course its pure geopolitics, you obviously can’t give legitimacy to Russian political system and its leadership.

    That doesn’t matter in the US-aligned countries, though. All opposition parties there should be if not 100% friendly to the US, NATO and even EU, then certainly not ACTUALLY hostile to them or friendly to Russia, or even China. (There are arguably some small exceptions, but that seems to be the case in most countries.) What do you call that… an illusion of choice?

    So why should Russian opposition be friendly to the West? Why on earth should it be “pro-Western liberal” (if that is what you’re saying)? If Navalvy is the “oppostion leader” in Russia, then American opposition leader is… Jill Stein? Or I think you have to go even “lower” than that?

    I don’t deny that issues exist, and it’s certainly somewhat uncertain what will happen after Putin (2022-24). However, as Karlin wrote a while ago, it seems that Russia’s political system is becoming more like that of Singapore (what a failure) in some ways, in other words they’re not even trying to become another “Western democracy.” Then there’s of course China, which seems to really need some “democracy” ASAP, right? (Of course, Russian and Chinese political systems are very different, so whatever…)

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  • @Chet Bradley

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy
     
    Why don't you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

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    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    That is atleast partially or even largely propaganda, double standards and half-truths. Voter fraud is also so minimal compared to UR's popularity that it actually makes next to no difference.

    To Western media, other Duma parties don't count as the opposition, because they're not hostile enough to Russian establishment and to Putin. And of course its pure geopolitics, you obviously can't give legitimacy to Russian political system and its leadership.

    That doesn't matter in the US-aligned countries, though. All opposition parties there should be if not 100% friendly to the US, NATO and even EU, then certainly not ACTUALLY hostile to them or friendly to Russia, or even China. (There are arguably some small exceptions, but that seems to be the case in most countries.) What do you call that... an illusion of choice?

    So why should Russian opposition be friendly to the West? Why on earth should it be "pro-Western liberal" (if that is what you're saying)? If Navalvy is the "oppostion leader" in Russia, then American opposition leader is... Jill Stein? Or I think you have to go even "lower" than that?

    I don't deny that issues exist, and it's certainly somewhat uncertain what will happen after Putin (2022-24). However, as Karlin wrote a while ago, it seems that Russia's political system is becoming more like that of Singapore (what a failure) in some ways, in other words they're not even trying to become another "Western democracy." Then there's of course China, which seems to really need some "democracy" ASAP, right? (Of course, Russian and Chinese political systems are very different, so whatever...)

    , @melanf

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).
     
    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and "the West" in another - Тrump or Мacron can't announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.
    , @Chet Bradley

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.
     
    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don't know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other
     
    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How's that "well-functioning democracy" working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?
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  • @gogis
    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.

    Well if you believe in the Sergei Guriev (who is on the run himself, so not necessarily our most disinterested witness), it’s a matter of being (or at least providing convincing appearance of being) competent.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136.pdf

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  • @Swedish Family

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.
     
    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia's civil society.

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

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    • Agree: Kimppis
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure, why wouldn't it be?

    I wouldn't put falsifying polls beneath him (or beyond the state pollsters) but I don't think that this is something he'll do or is capable of doing even if he wanted to.

    Could you write a post commenting on Spandrell’s Biological Leninsm, thoughts on it and how/why to counter it if you think so?

    Own reasons to counter it obviously come from a Dharmic Aryan Monarchic background whereby the King is made Like Indra by Consecration so obviously Benevolent Rule by the Gods is superior to Eunuch Bureaucracy||

    However, the details beside head chopping are best left to intellectuals like you||

    [MORE]

    Destruction of ADharmics
    Defence of Cows (Innocent)

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    • Agree: ussr andy
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  • @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia’s civil society.

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    • Replies: @Chet Bradley

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy
     
    Why don't you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Well if you believe in the Sergei Guriev (who is on the run himself, so not necessarily our most disinterested witness), it's a matter of being (or at least providing convincing appearance of being) competent.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136.pdf

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    Like Erlander and Kekkonen, and many other “Western” leaders? Even then, his term as PM shouldn’t really be included and he is going to retire at the age of around 70.

    And sure, because Putin isn’t actually popular. That meme never gets old, huh. Just keep repeating it long enough… Western media’s Russia coverage in a nutshell, really.

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  • Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I’ve got news for you Anatoly, it’s all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you’ve got a genuine ‘president for life’ (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

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    • Disagree: RadicalCenter, Kimppis
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Like Erlander and Kekkonen, and many other "Western" leaders? Even then, his term as PM shouldn't really be included and he is going to retire at the age of around 70.

    And sure, because Putin isn't actually popular. That meme never gets old, huh. Just keep repeating it long enough... Western media's Russia coverage in a nutshell, really.

    , @gogis
    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.
    , @Swedish Family

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.
     
    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia's civil society.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • In tangential news, Sobchak has no plans to go back to the stable after March.
    It seems there will be a new permanent fixture of ‘political-entertainment’.

    https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/01/2018/5a60a5339a79471a1e71b7fa

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