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All Comments / By James Thompson
 All Comments / By James Thompson
    In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • @res
    Thanks. I downloaded the data for rs4680 from Piffer's source at http://spsmart.cesga.es/ceph.php?dataSet=ceph_stanford
    which allows me to look at COMT Met% for the exact populations Piffer used. Data below.

    I'll probably try to map the Lynn and Afrosapiens IQ estimates into Piffer's populations as I described in my earlier comment (unless you do it first). I am a bit surprised he did not do the Lynn comparison himself in the correlation page I linked.


    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.
     
    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens's technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation. I think it is much better for within country comparisons (as in a typical EA GWAS) or countries with similar levels of development. Which makes it ironic that Afrosapiens touts his method in the worldwide IQ comparison context but was strangely silent when I brought it up to argue for an EA-IQ link in Nigeria (in a Chanda Chisala thread). That exchange helped make clear just how selective and motivated his reasoning is.

    P.S. Some links to the Nigeria EA-IQ conversation: http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2016734
    http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2012772
    I still can't believe Chanda tried to argue for a zero or even negative correlation between EA and IQ in Nigeria... SMH

    P.P.S. COMT Met% (rs4680 A allele) for Piffer populations below.



    Continent level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    AFRICA 102 0.275
    AMERICA 64 0.305
    EUROPE 158 0.494
    MIDDLE EAST 163 0.463
    CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA 200 0.477
    OCEANIA 28 0.393
    EAST ASIA 229 0.26

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    Subpopulation level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    C. African Republic - Biaka Pygmy 22 0.068
    D. R. of Congo - Mbuti Pygmy 13 0.231
    Kenya - Bantu 11 0.364
    Namibia - San 5 0.1
    Nigeria - Yoruba 21 0.405
    Senegal - Mandenka 22 0.364
    South Africa - Bantu 8 0.313
    Brazil - Karitiana 14 0.036
    Brazil - Surui 8 0.313
    Colombia - Piapoco and Curripaco 7 0
    Mexico - Maya 21 0.571
    Mexico - Pima 14 0.321
    France - Basque 24 0.583
    France - French 28 0.482
    Italy - Sardinian 28 0.357
    Italy - Tuscan 8 0.5
    Italy - from Bergamo 13 0.423
    Orkney Islands - Orcadian 15 0.6
    Russia (Caucasus) - Adygei 17 0.412
    Russia - Russian 25 0.6
    Algeria (Mzab) - Mozabite 29 0.431
    Israel (Carmel) - Druze 42 0.464
    Israel (Central) - Palestinian 46 0.533
    Israel (Negev) - Bedouin 46 0.413
    China - Uygur 10 0.45
    Pakistan - Balochi 24 0.542
    Pakistan - Brahui 25 0.42
    Pakistan - Burusho 25 0.48
    Pakistan - Hazara 22 0.523
    Pakistan - Kalash 23 0.565
    Pakistan - Makrani 25 0.46
    Pakistan - Pathan 22 0.432
    Pakistan - Sindhi 24 0.417
    Bougainville - NAN Melanesian 11 0.318
    New Guinea - Papuan 17 0.441
    Cambodia - Cambodian 10 0.35
    China - Dai 10 0.2
    China - Daur 9 0.278
    China - Han 44 0.25
    China - Hezhen 9 0.333
    China - Lahu 8 0.313
    China - Miaozu 10 0.15
    China - Mongola 10 0.25
    China - Naxi 8 0.125
    China - Oroqen 9 0.222
    China - She 10 0.3
    China - Tu 10 0.3
    China - Tujia 10 0.2
    China - Xibo 9 0.167
    China - Yizu 10 0.25
    Japan - Japanese 28 0.304
    Siberia - Yakut 25 0.3

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    res,

    I found another study that could shed some light on what we were discussing, and actually, I believe, proves both of us right to some extent:

    Association study between COMT 158Met and creativity scores in bipolar disorder and healthy controls

    There are many difficulties inherent to systematic studies of creativity, particularly methodological problems concerning the reliability and validity of creativity measures, and disagreements over the definition of creativity. The BWAS is not the only measure of creativity and other measures should be explored before drawing more definitive conclusions. In the present study, it was decided to examine the correlation between scores on a widely used scale for measuring creativity and the presence of functional polymorphism of COMT (rs4680), which likely influences PFC cognition, in a homogeneous sample of university students. Our results are also consistent with those reported in the literature investigating the role of DA and COMT in PFC function and cognition. However, no influence of COMT on IQ was evident, and BWAS and IQ scores were unrelated, further suggesting some degree of specificity in the association of COMT with creativity.

    This study is the first to report findings that suggest the effects of COMT gene polymorphism may not be limited to isolated basal cognitive abilities, but could partially account for greater cognitive abilities related to creativity in healthy controls.

    http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-60832014000200029

    Another Half Brick of Creativity

    The paper is slightly unusual, in that it seeks to model creative processes using IQ120 as a cut-off, and so runs contrary to the general findings of the Lubinski and Benbow work that there is no cut-off point, and that the brighter you are the more creative you are in real life.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/another-half-brick-of-creativity/#p_1_9

    Heave Half a Brick at Creativity

    Source: https://www.unz.com/jthompson/heave-half-brick-at-creativity/

    This raises several questions for me, specifically whether creativity is a better measure of intelligence/brightness than IQ is?

    Population COMT Met frequencies might be the best indicator we have to determine creativity, and lower COMT Met frequencies in East Asian populations might also explain the “low-creativity” stereotype often associated with East Asians.

    ‘Why Do Chinese Lack Creativity?’

    It’s not for lack of trying. The Chinese government now pours billions of dollars annually into research and development — by one estimate, its research and development budget may surpass U.S. spending by 2019 — and Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized innovation in his speeches. For the past four years, China has filed more patent applications than any other country, although state news agency Xinhua has described the quality of those patents as “poor.”http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/23/china-innovation-creativity-research-patents/

    I discussed something similar a while back with Afrosapiens:

    Following is my position on IQ tests. Maybe instead of “IQ test”, it should more accurately be called a “ Formal Education Potential, Quality and Attainment test” or something like that. I still feel the tests are useful and can offer some interesting insights, but they surely are and should not be the be-all and end-all tool of how we organize and structure our nations and societies, IMHO:

    I think what is important to reiterate is that IQ tests seem to measure and predict certain things very accurately, e.g., better cognitive performance/functioning under pressure/stress, educational attainment, income, possibly testosterone and dopamine levels, etc., but they do ironically/paradoxically only seem to test “intelligence” to a limited extent, at least that is my best, current understanding and interpretation of the data I have researched thus far.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-worlds-iq-86/#comment-2072872

    To conclude:

    What are Piffer et al.’s SNPs actually measuring?

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  • Davide Piffer said he would try to comment shortly, though he is tied up with other work at the moment.

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  • @Factorize
    res, one thing that is confusing me is that the polygenic result proposed is a falsifiable assertion. I would like to go at this more from a gedanken point of view, though a brute force empiricism would also give an unequivocal answer.

    This reduces to: Does the polygenic approach proposed replicate in independent preferably by independent researchers? I think that this is an important question to have clarified given the not entirely inconsequential implications if suggested results were indeed found to be accurate.

    Does the polygenic approach proposed replicate in independent preferably by independent researchers?

    Piffer has computed PGS from multiple studies (including different researchers) and they seem to replicate quite well (though I am curious about the apparent exception–lower correlation–noted at the end of comment 14). Also see his Monte Carlo simulation technique discussed in other posts which quantifies how unlikely it is that a random set of SNPs would give a similar result.

    His height work provides another form of replication: https://f1000research.com/articles/4-15/v3

    P.S. While looking at something else today I ran across a file which has forward/reverse (relative to dbSnp) strand data for the SNP chip used in the UKBB (1.1GB uncompressed csv, ouch!): http://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/scientists-3/uk-biobank-axiom-array/
    It also has reference/alternate allele information (not sure if that is what the researchers typically base that on). That might be helpful for your PGS work.

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  • res, one thing that is confusing me is that the polygenic result proposed is a falsifiable assertion. I would like to go at this more from a gedanken point of view, though a brute force empiricism would also give an unequivocal answer.

    This reduces to: Does the polygenic approach proposed replicate in independent preferably by independent researchers? I think that this is an important question to have clarified given the not entirely inconsequential implications if suggested results were indeed found to be accurate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    Does the polygenic approach proposed replicate in independent preferably by independent researchers?
     
    Piffer has computed PGS from multiple studies (including different researchers) and they seem to replicate quite well (though I am curious about the apparent exception--lower correlation--noted at the end of comment 14). Also see his Monte Carlo simulation technique discussed in other posts which quantifies how unlikely it is that a random set of SNPs would give a similar result.

    His height work provides another form of replication: https://f1000research.com/articles/4-15/v3

    P.S. While looking at something else today I ran across a file which has forward/reverse (relative to dbSnp) strand data for the SNP chip used in the UKBB (1.1GB uncompressed csv, ouch!): www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/scientists-3/uk-biobank-axiom-array/
    It also has reference/alternate allele information (not sure if that is what the researchers typically base that on). That might be helpful for your PGS work.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • I don’t understand why Africa [all africans*] was higher than America [amerindians].

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  • res, I am not sure what to make of this result (i.e., the 0.9 polygenic result). It is a fairly startling. utu really made a run at it last time round. I am going to fence sit on this one. It does make sense from the perspective of polygenic adaption. When people are choosing mates they will choose the cognitive phenotype that is observable and it does not matter if the variants involved have super tiny effect sizes. All the variants act as one package. I am just not sure about the technical questions involved. Are we missing something? It would be amazing if something like this could be applied at the individual level. That would really move things into gear! I think the current polygenic scoring might only be explaining perhaps up to 10% of IQ. Is it really possible that this new method could do much much better than that? Would be very startling if it could! Though I guess this is more about looking at the scale of population differences.

    Did he say that the SNPs he was using were those with maximal discriminatory power? I think utu made an argument that any set of SNPs would do. Nevertheless this is super exciting and I certainly wish some experts would provide clarification on this methodology.

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  • @Factorize
    Wow!

    How well does his polygenic predict individual level IQs? I am not sure whether there are any public IQs with phenotypes, though this would be a helpful resource.

    Might you ask him to run his program to predict the IQs of a few individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project? Perhaps HG00096, HG00097, HG00099, HG00100, HG00101? I would love to have a calibration sample. It would also be of interest to have the polygenic scores for these individuals by phased chromosome. How much variance is there between homologous chromosomes? Looking at the likely points of recombination along chromosomes and determining polygenic scores for different scenarios might be of even greater interest.

    It’s not what you are asking for, but the CEU and Yoruba plots in https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-dna-of-genius-n2/ are somewhat in that vein.

    Was the compressed sensing height predictor ever made public? It would be interesting to see how that works in this methodology. It would also provide a good check for the SNP subset/full predictor correlation idea.

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  • @James Thompson
    Davide Piffer tells me that the correlation between group average IQs and his polygenic prediction is now 0.9

    Thanks! Do you know which populations he was using?

    To add some context: https://www.unz.com/jthompson/genetics-of-racial-differences-in-intelligence-updated/

    https://topseudoscience.wordpress.com/2017/06/02/new-genes-same-results-group-level-genotypic-intelligence-for-26-and-52-populations/

    If I understand correctly the 26 population group is 1000 Genomes: http://www.internationalgenome.org/faq/which-populations-are-part-your-study/

    The 52 population group in the link above is from ALFRED (right?): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3245092/
    but the more recent RPubs documents refer to CEPH-HGDP (included in ALFRED?): http://www.cephb.fr/en/hgdp_panel.php
    Are those two references the same data by different names?

    I think the consistently high correlations of IQ and Piffer’s successive PGS provide a good validation of his hypothesis that the smaller SNP subsets capture selection pressure.

    The one PGS which seems like an exception is the relatively low correlations seen in http://rpubs.com/Daxide/279148
    “Correlation between the intelligence PS and IQ,PS_Piffer2017,PS_Piffer_2017_162SNPs are r=0.496, 0.646, 0.497.”

    To preserve context, the rest of that paragraph was: “Correlations between the intelligence-EA PS and IQ, PS_Piffer2017_9, PS_Piffer_2016_162SNPs are r= 0.877, 0.924, 0.835 These are lower than the correlations previously observed (Piffer, 2017)”

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  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • ”Cognitive capitalism”

    ”high IQ” sociopaths [ =/= than psychop] run society based on: agressivity, greed, manipulation..

    IQ = part of [human] intelligence which is required to serve the [unfair/often problematic] system: learn and apply commands and knowledges.

    knowledge as a coin to be used to serve the ”system” as well those who possess it.

    sociopaths and below-empathetic people compete one each other to ”win” at the top of social hierarchy.

    normies compete one each other to serve the ”system” which is often dominated by sociopaths/parasites and below-empathetic people, of course, the elites also have some drop of high functioning normies.

    Most humans are just like domestic dogs while elites are often composed by less-domesticated-types.

    Capitalism ALWAYS mean huge wealth to a tiny fraction of population.

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  • @Bardon Kaldian
    Re queerty -- Geez, what a massive faggotry.... Homos, it seems, don't want equality; they want live to in their own Homotopia, where everything is related to their version of sex & life...

    Supposed to be, you don’t want to live in your own kaldiantopia…

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  • In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • Wow!

    How well does his polygenic predict individual level IQs? I am not sure whether there are any public IQs with phenotypes, though this would be a helpful resource.

    Might you ask him to run his program to predict the IQs of a few individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project? Perhaps HG00096, HG00097, HG00099, HG00100, HG00101? I would love to have a calibration sample. It would also be of interest to have the polygenic scores for these individuals by phased chromosome. How much variance is there between homologous chromosomes? Looking at the likely points of recombination along chromosomes and determining polygenic scores for different scenarios might be of even greater interest.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    It's not what you are asking for, but the CEU and Yoruba plots in https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-dna-of-genius-n2/ are somewhat in that vein.

    Was the compressed sensing height predictor ever made public? It would be interesting to see how that works in this methodology. It would also provide a good check for the SNP subset/full predictor correlation idea.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Davide Piffer tells me that the correlation between group average IQs and his polygenic prediction is now 0.9

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks! Do you know which populations he was using?

    To add some context: https://www.unz.com/jthompson/genetics-of-racial-differences-in-intelligence-updated/
    https://topseudoscience.wordpress.com/2017/06/02/new-genes-same-results-group-level-genotypic-intelligence-for-26-and-52-populations/

    If I understand correctly the 26 population group is 1000 Genomes: http://www.internationalgenome.org/faq/which-populations-are-part-your-study/

    The 52 population group in the link above is from ALFRED (right?): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3245092/
    but the more recent RPubs documents refer to CEPH-HGDP (included in ALFRED?): http://www.cephb.fr/en/hgdp_panel.php
    Are those two references the same data by different names?

    I think the consistently high correlations of IQ and Piffer's successive PGS provide a good validation of his hypothesis that the smaller SNP subsets capture selection pressure.

    The one PGS which seems like an exception is the relatively low correlations seen in http://rpubs.com/Daxide/279148
    "Correlation between the intelligence PS and IQ,PS_Piffer2017,PS_Piffer_2017_162SNPs are r=0.496, 0.646, 0.497."

    To preserve context, the rest of that paragraph was: "Correlations between the intelligence-EA PS and IQ, PS_Piffer2017_9, PS_Piffer_2016_162SNPs are r= 0.877, 0.924, 0.835 These are lower than the correlations previously observed (Piffer, 2017)"
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:

    middle aged vet said: I rarely reread my comments, but I felt a little bad, after hitting “publish comment” on my latest comment on this thread, when I recollected that I may have used the verb “posted” referring to my comments on the Marginal Revolution blog, not the more accurate and humble verb “commented” — on the blog in question.

    One of my pals has read more of Shakespeare than the most Tolkien-Loving reader has ever read of Tolkien, and my young Shakespeare-loving friend has told me that it is extremely important to get verbs right, the fantastic number of textual ambiguities in the Shakespeare sources does not bother my friend much, but it is clear that one would have hoped otherwise, when so many beautiful lines were almost in question, and who knows what sounds better, when we are talking about the most empathetic words in the most empathetic order in our language. Shakespeare’s or not? The question is easily answered, or not …

    Anyway, if you are one of those people who have the gift of writing things that other people, upon reading, laugh at or cry at upon reading the words that touched their soul— if you are one of those people, you know that if you get the verbs right, then you can relax with the nouns and the participles and the adjectives. (J.D. Denniston, a scholar of whom I know nothing beyond the fact that he published the supremely useful book titled the Greek Participles – a bargain at its current price on Amazon, just saying – well, J.D.D. wrote a few paragraphs in that wonderful book that explain why small words are, in their way, as worthy of as much respect as the tallest tree in the most sacred wood is … (that last sentence was a pastiche of Wallace Stevens, just saying) (my name is life could be the name of a good book and if someone wrote the title any other way than 2 4 2 4 – well, the question is not that hard, it is nice to see that it so easily answered, if i write a book or two the name of the first book will be my name is life).

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  • In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • @FKA Max
    Thanks again, res.

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.
     
    I understand your skepticism.

    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens’s technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation.
     
    Yes, that is correct. His Syria IQ of 71 is probably due to current the war in Syria, for example. Mexico is also affected by drug wars, etc. The low Pakistani results could be due to high cousin marriage rates, which depress intelligence, high fertility rates and resultant resource scarcity/depletion, religious instead of scientific/academic teaching/study, etc.

    I think the Met% IQ correlation will become clearer and more pronounced the more peaceful, less religious/more secular and the more per-capita prosperous the world and/or a population/group becomes.

    The populations with higher Met% will likely experience "Super-Flynn Effects", when conditions are favorable for them:

    Race/IQ: Super-Flynn Effects in Germans, Jews, and Hispanics

    The central argument of my piece had been that although GDP and IQ were highly correlated, the direction of causality might well be from the former to the latter, and this attracted much derision.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/runz/raceiq-super-flynn-effects-in-germans-jews-and-hispanics/

    Put another way, the populations/groups with lower Met% might have a lower IQ ceiling and potential, and only experience "Semi-Flynn Effects" even under favorable conditions.

    These are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of test results coming out of East Asia, in particular China:


    The National Center for Fair and Open Testing, a nonprofit known as FairTest, which advocates against the misuse and abuse of standardized tests, said Chinese test prep companies have reported cancellations in Taiwan, Macao, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Shanghai.
     
    - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2017/09/07/security-breach-forces-act-test-cancellation-in-asia-and-weather-causes-some-in-u-s/


    But as with just about everything concerning modern China, the results should also be viewed with some distance and possible skepticism. The 5000+ students who were tested in China's biggest and most modern city may or may not be indicative of broader progress throughout the country (as the NYT story points out). Anyone who has had experience with schools and testing in China will want to know more about how these tests were administered, supervised, and scored.
     
    - https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/12/on-those-stunning-shanghai-test-scores/67654/

    When I slightly alter/manipulate the sample by taking 85,0.135 Micronesia and 72,0.44 Papa New Guinea out of the sample, changing Syria from IQ 71 to Lebanon’s IQ 86 and Pakistan’s IQ 70 to India’s IQ 79, and Mexico from Met% 0.6 to Met% 0.43 like Spain, I get a correlation coefficient of:

    Sample size: 30

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.55952261014232 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 30
    Mean x (x̄): 88.1
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.40061666666667
    Intercept (a): -0.19408755573084
    Slope (b): 0.006750331695772
    Regression line equation: y=0.006750331695772x-0.19408755573084 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/

    Changed countries highlighted:

    [MORE]

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.416 Syria
    86,0.45 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.465 Pakistan
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    68,0.33 Senegal

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  • @res
    Thanks. I downloaded the data for rs4680 from Piffer's source at http://spsmart.cesga.es/ceph.php?dataSet=ceph_stanford
    which allows me to look at COMT Met% for the exact populations Piffer used. Data below.

    I'll probably try to map the Lynn and Afrosapiens IQ estimates into Piffer's populations as I described in my earlier comment (unless you do it first). I am a bit surprised he did not do the Lynn comparison himself in the correlation page I linked.


    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.
     
    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens's technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation. I think it is much better for within country comparisons (as in a typical EA GWAS) or countries with similar levels of development. Which makes it ironic that Afrosapiens touts his method in the worldwide IQ comparison context but was strangely silent when I brought it up to argue for an EA-IQ link in Nigeria (in a Chanda Chisala thread). That exchange helped make clear just how selective and motivated his reasoning is.

    P.S. Some links to the Nigeria EA-IQ conversation: http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2016734
    http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2012772
    I still can't believe Chanda tried to argue for a zero or even negative correlation between EA and IQ in Nigeria... SMH

    P.P.S. COMT Met% (rs4680 A allele) for Piffer populations below.



    Continent level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    AFRICA 102 0.275
    AMERICA 64 0.305
    EUROPE 158 0.494
    MIDDLE EAST 163 0.463
    CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA 200 0.477
    OCEANIA 28 0.393
    EAST ASIA 229 0.26

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    Subpopulation level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    C. African Republic - Biaka Pygmy 22 0.068
    D. R. of Congo - Mbuti Pygmy 13 0.231
    Kenya - Bantu 11 0.364
    Namibia - San 5 0.1
    Nigeria - Yoruba 21 0.405
    Senegal - Mandenka 22 0.364
    South Africa - Bantu 8 0.313
    Brazil - Karitiana 14 0.036
    Brazil - Surui 8 0.313
    Colombia - Piapoco and Curripaco 7 0
    Mexico - Maya 21 0.571
    Mexico - Pima 14 0.321
    France - Basque 24 0.583
    France - French 28 0.482
    Italy - Sardinian 28 0.357
    Italy - Tuscan 8 0.5
    Italy - from Bergamo 13 0.423
    Orkney Islands - Orcadian 15 0.6
    Russia (Caucasus) - Adygei 17 0.412
    Russia - Russian 25 0.6
    Algeria (Mzab) - Mozabite 29 0.431
    Israel (Carmel) - Druze 42 0.464
    Israel (Central) - Palestinian 46 0.533
    Israel (Negev) - Bedouin 46 0.413
    China - Uygur 10 0.45
    Pakistan - Balochi 24 0.542
    Pakistan - Brahui 25 0.42
    Pakistan - Burusho 25 0.48
    Pakistan - Hazara 22 0.523
    Pakistan - Kalash 23 0.565
    Pakistan - Makrani 25 0.46
    Pakistan - Pathan 22 0.432
    Pakistan - Sindhi 24 0.417
    Bougainville - NAN Melanesian 11 0.318
    New Guinea - Papuan 17 0.441
    Cambodia - Cambodian 10 0.35
    China - Dai 10 0.2
    China - Daur 9 0.278
    China - Han 44 0.25
    China - Hezhen 9 0.333
    China - Lahu 8 0.313
    China - Miaozu 10 0.15
    China - Mongola 10 0.25
    China - Naxi 8 0.125
    China - Oroqen 9 0.222
    China - She 10 0.3
    China - Tu 10 0.3
    China - Tujia 10 0.2
    China - Xibo 9 0.167
    China - Yizu 10 0.25
    Japan - Japanese 28 0.304
    Siberia - Yakut 25 0.3

    Thanks again, res.

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    I understand your skepticism.

    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens’s technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation.

    Yes, that is correct. His Syria IQ of 71 is probably due to current the war in Syria, for example. Mexico is also affected by drug wars, etc. The low Pakistani results could be due to high cousin marriage rates, which depress intelligence, high fertility rates and resultant resource scarcity/depletion, religious instead of scientific/academic teaching/study, etc.

    I think the Met% IQ correlation will become clearer and more pronounced the more peaceful, less religious/more secular and the more per-capita prosperous the world and/or a population/group becomes.

    The populations with higher Met% will likely experience “Super-Flynn Effects”, when conditions are favorable for them:

    Race/IQ: Super-Flynn Effects in Germans, Jews, and Hispanics

    The central argument of my piece had been that although GDP and IQ were highly correlated, the direction of causality might well be from the former to the latter, and this attracted much derision.

    http://www.unz.com/runz/raceiq-super-flynn-effects-in-germans-jews-and-hispanics/

    Put another way, the populations/groups with lower Met% might have a lower IQ ceiling and potential, and only experience “Semi-Flynn Effects” even under favorable conditions.

    These are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of test results coming out of East Asia, in particular China:

    The National Center for Fair and Open Testing, a nonprofit known as FairTest, which advocates against the misuse and abuse of standardized tests, said Chinese test prep companies have reported cancellations in Taiwan, Macao, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Shanghai.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2017/09/07/security-breach-forces-act-test-cancellation-in-asia-and-weather-causes-some-in-u-s/

    But as with just about everything concerning modern China, the results should also be viewed with some distance and possible skepticism. The 5000+ students who were tested in China’s biggest and most modern city may or may not be indicative of broader progress throughout the country (as the NYT story points out). Anyone who has had experience with schools and testing in China will want to know more about how these tests were administered, supervised, and scored.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/12/on-those-stunning-shanghai-test-scores/67654/

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    When I slightly alter/manipulate the sample by taking 85,0.135 Micronesia and 72,0.44 Papa New Guinea out of the sample, changing Syria from IQ 71 to Lebanon's IQ 86 and Pakistan's IQ 70 to India's IQ 79, and Mexico from Met% 0.6 to Met% 0.43 like Spain, I get a correlation coefficient of:

    Sample size: 30

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.55952261014232 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 30
    Mean x (x̄): 88.1
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.40061666666667
    Intercept (a): -0.19408755573084
    Slope (b): 0.006750331695772
    Regression line equation: y=0.006750331695772x-0.19408755573084 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/

    Changed countries highlighted:

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.416 Syria
    86,0.45 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.465 Pakistan
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    68,0.33 Senegal
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @FKA Max
    Thanks so much, res.

    I used an online correlation coefficient and linear regression calculator and calculated the correlation with Afrosapiens IQ data ( https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/ see "Results") for thirty-two (32) populations/nations:

    Sample size: 32

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.41594921999427 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 32
    Mean x (x̄): 86.75
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.398859375
    Intercept (a): -0.037613843077569
    Slope (b): 0.0050313915628538
    Regression line equation: y=0.0050313915628538x-0.037613843077569 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Image linear regression: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/linear-regression-image.php?n=1

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.6 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    85,0.135 Micronesia
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    71,0.416 Syria
    72,0.44 Papa New Guinea
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    70,0.465 Pakistan
    68,0.33 Senegal

    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.

    Thanks. I downloaded the data for rs4680 from Piffer’s source at http://spsmart.cesga.es/ceph.php?dataSet=ceph_stanford
    which allows me to look at COMT Met% for the exact populations Piffer used. Data below.

    I’ll probably try to map the Lynn and Afrosapiens IQ estimates into Piffer’s populations as I described in my earlier comment (unless you do it first). I am a bit surprised he did not do the Lynn comparison himself in the correlation page I linked.

    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.

    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens’s technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation. I think it is much better for within country comparisons (as in a typical EA GWAS) or countries with similar levels of development. Which makes it ironic that Afrosapiens touts his method in the worldwide IQ comparison context but was strangely silent when I brought it up to argue for an EA-IQ link in Nigeria (in a Chanda Chisala thread). That exchange helped make clear just how selective and motivated his reasoning is.

    P.S. Some links to the Nigeria EA-IQ conversation: http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2016734

    http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2012772

    I still can’t believe Chanda tried to argue for a zero or even negative correlation between EA and IQ in Nigeria… SMH

    P.P.S. COMT Met% (rs4680 A allele) for Piffer populations below.

    [MORE]

    Continent level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    AFRICA 102 0.275
    AMERICA 64 0.305
    EUROPE 158 0.494
    MIDDLE EAST 163 0.463
    CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA 200 0.477
    OCEANIA 28 0.393
    EAST ASIA 229 0.26

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    Subpopulation level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    C. African Republic – Biaka Pygmy 22 0.068
    D. R. of Congo – Mbuti Pygmy 13 0.231
    Kenya – Bantu 11 0.364
    Namibia – San 5 0.1
    Nigeria – Yoruba 21 0.405
    Senegal – Mandenka 22 0.364
    South Africa – Bantu 8 0.313
    Brazil – Karitiana 14 0.036
    Brazil – Surui 8 0.313
    Colombia – Piapoco and Curripaco 7 0
    Mexico – Maya 21 0.571
    Mexico – Pima 14 0.321
    France – Basque 24 0.583
    France – French 28 0.482
    Italy – Sardinian 28 0.357
    Italy – Tuscan 8 0.5
    Italy – from Bergamo 13 0.423
    Orkney Islands – Orcadian 15 0.6
    Russia (Caucasus) – Adygei 17 0.412
    Russia – Russian 25 0.6
    Algeria (Mzab) – Mozabite 29 0.431
    Israel (Carmel) – Druze 42 0.464
    Israel (Central) – Palestinian 46 0.533
    Israel (Negev) – Bedouin 46 0.413
    China – Uygur 10 0.45
    Pakistan – Balochi 24 0.542
    Pakistan – Brahui 25 0.42
    Pakistan – Burusho 25 0.48
    Pakistan – Hazara 22 0.523
    Pakistan – Kalash 23 0.565
    Pakistan – Makrani 25 0.46
    Pakistan – Pathan 22 0.432
    Pakistan – Sindhi 24 0.417
    Bougainville – NAN Melanesian 11 0.318
    New Guinea – Papuan 17 0.441
    Cambodia – Cambodian 10 0.35
    China – Dai 10 0.2
    China – Daur 9 0.278
    China – Han 44 0.25
    China – Hezhen 9 0.333
    China – Lahu 8 0.313
    China – Miaozu 10 0.15
    China – Mongola 10 0.25
    China – Naxi 8 0.125
    China – Oroqen 9 0.222
    China – She 10 0.3
    China – Tu 10 0.3
    China – Tujia 10 0.2
    China – Xibo 9 0.167
    China – Yizu 10 0.25
    Japan – Japanese 28 0.304
    Siberia – Yakut 25 0.3

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    Thanks again, res.

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.
     
    I understand your skepticism.

    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens’s technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation.
     
    Yes, that is correct. His Syria IQ of 71 is probably due to current the war in Syria, for example. Mexico is also affected by drug wars, etc. The low Pakistani results could be due to high cousin marriage rates, which depress intelligence, high fertility rates and resultant resource scarcity/depletion, religious instead of scientific/academic teaching/study, etc.

    I think the Met% IQ correlation will become clearer and more pronounced the more peaceful, less religious/more secular and the more per-capita prosperous the world and/or a population/group becomes.

    The populations with higher Met% will likely experience "Super-Flynn Effects", when conditions are favorable for them:

    Race/IQ: Super-Flynn Effects in Germans, Jews, and Hispanics

    The central argument of my piece had been that although GDP and IQ were highly correlated, the direction of causality might well be from the former to the latter, and this attracted much derision.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/runz/raceiq-super-flynn-effects-in-germans-jews-and-hispanics/

    Put another way, the populations/groups with lower Met% might have a lower IQ ceiling and potential, and only experience "Semi-Flynn Effects" even under favorable conditions.

    These are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of test results coming out of East Asia, in particular China:


    The National Center for Fair and Open Testing, a nonprofit known as FairTest, which advocates against the misuse and abuse of standardized tests, said Chinese test prep companies have reported cancellations in Taiwan, Macao, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Shanghai.
     
    - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2017/09/07/security-breach-forces-act-test-cancellation-in-asia-and-weather-causes-some-in-u-s/


    But as with just about everything concerning modern China, the results should also be viewed with some distance and possible skepticism. The 5000+ students who were tested in China's biggest and most modern city may or may not be indicative of broader progress throughout the country (as the NYT story points out). Anyone who has had experience with schools and testing in China will want to know more about how these tests were administered, supervised, and scored.
     
    - https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2010/12/on-those-stunning-shanghai-test-scores/67654/
    , @FKA Max


    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.
     
    res,

    I found another study that could shed some light on what we were discussing, and actually, I believe, proves both of us right to some extent:

    Association study between COMT 158Met and creativity scores in bipolar disorder and healthy controls

    There are many difficulties inherent to systematic studies of creativity, particularly methodological problems concerning the reliability and validity of creativity measures, and disagreements over the definition of creativity. The BWAS is not the only measure of creativity and other measures should be explored before drawing more definitive conclusions. In the present study, it was decided to examine the correlation between scores on a widely used scale for measuring creativity and the presence of functional polymorphism of COMT (rs4680), which likely influences PFC cognition, in a homogeneous sample of university students. Our results are also consistent with those reported in the literature investigating the role of DA and COMT in PFC function and cognition. However, no influence of COMT on IQ was evident, and BWAS and IQ scores were unrelated, further suggesting some degree of specificity in the association of COMT with creativity.

    This study is the first to report findings that suggest the effects of COMT gene polymorphism may not be limited to isolated basal cognitive abilities, but could partially account for greater cognitive abilities related to creativity in healthy controls.
     
    - http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0101-60832014000200029

    Another Half Brick of Creativity


    The paper is slightly unusual, in that it seeks to model creative processes using IQ120 as a cut-off, and so runs contrary to the general findings of the Lubinski and Benbow work that there is no cut-off point, and that the brighter you are the more creative you are in real life.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/another-half-brick-of-creativity/#p_1_9

    Heave Half a Brick at Creativity

    http://lh6.ggpht.com/-6RIi9RaWz0I/VKWLiLxk8fI/AAAAAAAAAuA/LpL_OgIuaec/image_thumb%25255B7%25255D.png

    Source: https://www.unz.com/jthompson/heave-half-brick-at-creativity/

    This raises several questions for me, specifically whether creativity is a better measure of intelligence/brightness than IQ is?

    Population COMT Met frequencies might be the best indicator we have to determine creativity, and lower COMT Met frequencies in East Asian populations might also explain the "low-creativity" stereotype often associated with East Asians.

    ‘Why Do Chinese Lack Creativity?’

    It’s not for lack of trying. The Chinese government now pours billions of dollars annually into research and development — by one estimate, its research and development budget may surpass U.S. spending by 2019 — and Chinese President Xi Jinping has emphasized innovation in his speeches. For the past four years, China has filed more patent applications than any other country, although state news agency Xinhua has described the quality of those patents as “poor.” - http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/23/china-innovation-creativity-research-patents/

    I discussed something similar a while back with Afrosapiens:

    Following is my position on IQ tests. Maybe instead of “IQ test”, it should more accurately be called a “ Formal Education Potential, Quality and Attainment test” or something like that. I still feel the tests are useful and can offer some interesting insights, but they surely are and should not be the be-all and end-all tool of how we organize and structure our nations and societies, IMHO:

    I think what is important to reiterate is that IQ tests seem to measure and predict certain things very accurately, e.g., better cognitive performance/functioning under pressure/stress, educational attainment, income, possibly testosterone and dopamine levels, etc., but they do ironically/paradoxically only seem to test “intelligence” to a limited extent, at least that is my best, current understanding and interpretation of the data I have researched thus far.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-worlds-iq-86/#comment-2072872

    To conclude:

    What are Piffer et al.'s SNPs actually measuring?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Although the Bard warned against finding the mind’s construction in the face, we are apt to try. Can facial features show us the power of the brain behind the mask? Lee et al. (2017) think so. Unlike minor Scottish nobility planning regicide, they have made their judgments using the medium of facial photographs of twins...
  • What about Steven Hawking – does he look intelligent? Was Mozart handsome? Beethoven scowled like a criminal. It’s all nonsense next we’ll be asked to believe in Phrenology

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • @FKA Max
    Thanks so much, res.

    I used an online correlation coefficient and linear regression calculator and calculated the correlation with Afrosapiens IQ data ( https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/ see "Results") for thirty-two (32) populations/nations:

    Sample size: 32

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.41594921999427 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 32
    Mean x (x̄): 86.75
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.398859375
    Intercept (a): -0.037613843077569
    Slope (b): 0.0050313915628538
    Regression line equation: y=0.0050313915628538x-0.037613843077569 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Image linear regression: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/linear-regression-image.php?n=1

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.6 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    85,0.135 Micronesia
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    71,0.416 Syria
    72,0.44 Papa New Guinea
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    70,0.465 Pakistan
    68,0.33 Senegal

    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.
    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @res
    Sounds like something worth testing. I think the best way to do this is to incorporate the additional data into the analysis in http://rpubs.com/Daxide/377423
    I have that running locally so all I need is the appropriate data.

    The easiest way to do that would be to modify the HGDP_PGS .csv available at https://osf.io/uays8/
    Note the specific populations needed in the first column.

    Would it be possible for you to create a file adding the fields you want to that? I assume you would be looking at Lynn IQ, Afro IQ, and % Met?

    I can create the data file, but there are enough population mapping issues that I would prefer the person interested in the results make those assumptions.

    P.S. If Davide would like to look at this himself IMHO that would be even better.

    P.P.S. Do you have any thoughts why rs4680 does not show up in the results for the latest EA study? https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs4680
    Though that page does show an IQ related connection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24853458?dopt=Abstract
    There is one SNP in the EA study that is in fairly high LD (D' = 0.8, r^2 =0.28 in CEU) with rs4680: rs2240715, but the p value is 0.7 with a small beta (I did not check exhaustively, just a quick visual look at chr 22 hits). Actually, rs165655 is also similar.

    Thanks so much, res.

    I used an online correlation coefficient and linear regression calculator and calculated the correlation with Afrosapiens IQ data ( https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/ see “Results”) for thirty-two (32) populations/nations:

    Sample size: 32

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.41594921999427 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 32
    Mean x (x̄): 86.75
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.398859375
    Intercept (a): -0.037613843077569
    Slope (b): 0.0050313915628538
    Regression line equation: y=0.0050313915628538x-0.037613843077569 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Image linear regression: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/linear-regression-image.php?n=1

    [MORE]

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.6 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    85,0.135 Micronesia
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    71,0.416 Syria
    72,0.44 Papa New Guinea
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    70,0.465 Pakistan
    68,0.33 Senegal

    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    Correction: I shared the wrong link for the linear regression calculator I used, here the correct one: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/

    And again, here the Piffer Met% data I used: https://www.amren.com/news/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culture-gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate/

    , @res
    Thanks. I downloaded the data for rs4680 from Piffer's source at http://spsmart.cesga.es/ceph.php?dataSet=ceph_stanford
    which allows me to look at COMT Met% for the exact populations Piffer used. Data below.

    I'll probably try to map the Lynn and Afrosapiens IQ estimates into Piffer's populations as I described in my earlier comment (unless you do it first). I am a bit surprised he did not do the Lynn comparison himself in the correlation page I linked.


    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.
     
    This does not surprise me. Although Afrosapiens's technique is interesting, using it for between country IQ comparisons of countries with widely differing levels of development has an obvious issue with the EA-development correlation interfering with the EA-IQ correlation. I think it is much better for within country comparisons (as in a typical EA GWAS) or countries with similar levels of development. Which makes it ironic that Afrosapiens touts his method in the worldwide IQ comparison context but was strangely silent when I brought it up to argue for an EA-IQ link in Nigeria (in a Chanda Chisala thread). That exchange helped make clear just how selective and motivated his reasoning is.

    P.S. Some links to the Nigeria EA-IQ conversation: http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2016734
    http://www.unz.com/article/my-last-word-on-the-scrabble-and-iq-debate-2/#comment-2012772
    I still can't believe Chanda tried to argue for a zero or even negative correlation between EA and IQ in Nigeria... SMH

    P.P.S. COMT Met% (rs4680 A allele) for Piffer populations below.



    Continent level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    AFRICA 102 0.275
    AMERICA 64 0.305
    EUROPE 158 0.494
    MIDDLE EAST 163 0.463
    CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA 200 0.477
    OCEANIA 28 0.393
    EAST ASIA 229 0.26

    These continent level numbers (particularly East Asia) make me skeptical about a strong Met% IQ connection.

    Subpopulation level:

    population N freq_A
    Population Set 1 944 0.389
    C. African Republic - Biaka Pygmy 22 0.068
    D. R. of Congo - Mbuti Pygmy 13 0.231
    Kenya - Bantu 11 0.364
    Namibia - San 5 0.1
    Nigeria - Yoruba 21 0.405
    Senegal - Mandenka 22 0.364
    South Africa - Bantu 8 0.313
    Brazil - Karitiana 14 0.036
    Brazil - Surui 8 0.313
    Colombia - Piapoco and Curripaco 7 0
    Mexico - Maya 21 0.571
    Mexico - Pima 14 0.321
    France - Basque 24 0.583
    France - French 28 0.482
    Italy - Sardinian 28 0.357
    Italy - Tuscan 8 0.5
    Italy - from Bergamo 13 0.423
    Orkney Islands - Orcadian 15 0.6
    Russia (Caucasus) - Adygei 17 0.412
    Russia - Russian 25 0.6
    Algeria (Mzab) - Mozabite 29 0.431
    Israel (Carmel) - Druze 42 0.464
    Israel (Central) - Palestinian 46 0.533
    Israel (Negev) - Bedouin 46 0.413
    China - Uygur 10 0.45
    Pakistan - Balochi 24 0.542
    Pakistan - Brahui 25 0.42
    Pakistan - Burusho 25 0.48
    Pakistan - Hazara 22 0.523
    Pakistan - Kalash 23 0.565
    Pakistan - Makrani 25 0.46
    Pakistan - Pathan 22 0.432
    Pakistan - Sindhi 24 0.417
    Bougainville - NAN Melanesian 11 0.318
    New Guinea - Papuan 17 0.441
    Cambodia - Cambodian 10 0.35
    China - Dai 10 0.2
    China - Daur 9 0.278
    China - Han 44 0.25
    China - Hezhen 9 0.333
    China - Lahu 8 0.313
    China - Miaozu 10 0.15
    China - Mongola 10 0.25
    China - Naxi 8 0.125
    China - Oroqen 9 0.222
    China - She 10 0.3
    China - Tu 10 0.3
    China - Tujia 10 0.2
    China - Xibo 9 0.167
    China - Yizu 10 0.25
    Japan - Japanese 28 0.304
    Siberia - Yakut 25 0.3
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @dearieme
    "merciless enquiry and savage criticism": you mean, is Piffer piffle?

    precisely. a souffle of barbed wire.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @FKA Max
    res,

    could you, please, do me a favor and calculate the correlation between the population/nation Met allele frequencies of Mr. Piffer's following paper: https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culturee28093gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate.pdf

    https://2kpcwh2r7phz1nq4jj237m22-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/MetFrequency.jpg

    and Afrosapiens's IQ data instead of Lynn's IQ data, because I believe the correlation will be even stronger and will explain Piffer's contradictory finding: "Particularly interesting is the relatively low frequency of COMT in East Asian populations (range 0.22–0.30), which contrasts with their reported higher IQ (105)." - p. 169

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/ranking.png

    Source: https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    This is what I wrote a couple of months ago on this:

    If East Asians were not such hard-working students http://www.unz.com/freed/fun-with-iq-deep-thought/#comment-2095195 and were not performing so well on standardized IQ tests due to their studying habits th[e]n the global correlation between IQ and population COMT Met frequencies would be even higher, in my opinion:

    Correlation of the COMT Val158Met Polymorphism with Latitude and a Hunter-Gather Lifestyle Suggests Culture–Gene Coevolution and Selective Pressure on Cognition Genes Due to Climate

    Davide Piffer, Anthropological Science, July 31, 2013

    Thus, the global correlation between IQ and Met allele frequency is r = 0.579 and highly statistically significant (n = 38; P < 0.001). This supports the prediction that populations with higher Met allele frequency have higher IQ, similarly to the correlation observed at the individual level.

    – https://www.amren.com/news/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culture-gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate/
     

    - http://www.unz.com/jderbyshire/time-to-stop-importing-an-immigrant-overclass/#comment-2118604

    I agree with Afrosapiens that Lynn has overestimated East Asian intelligence, and I believe that COMT Met is still the best genetic predictor of intelligence, even though some researchers like Emil Kirkegaard disagree:

    Just commented on this issue over in another Unz Review comments thread, Mr. Thompson, and how these emotional and genetic differences can even affect IQ test scores, etc., since stress-susceptibility is quite a significant moderating/confounding factor when it comes to stressful test taking conditions, in my opinion.
    [...]
    East Asians and Africans, on average, have a competitive advantage under stressful test taking conditions over Caucasians and Mexicans, etc. due to this, in my opinion.
    [...]
    Mr. Kirkegaard thinks that these are “More failed candidate gene ideas.”, but I believe he is jumping to premature conclusion, due to the reasons I stated above
     

    - https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124173

    In this video, the person https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Po_Bronson interviewed claims/estimates that “worriers/strategists” have a 10 IQ point advantage over “warriors” in non-stressful situations/environments. - https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124219

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2_3RXmXoM8

    Thank you very much, res.

    Sounds like something worth testing. I think the best way to do this is to incorporate the additional data into the analysis in http://rpubs.com/Daxide/377423
    I have that running locally so all I need is the appropriate data.

    The easiest way to do that would be to modify the HGDP_PGS .csv available at https://osf.io/uays8/
    Note the specific populations needed in the first column.

    Would it be possible for you to create a file adding the fields you want to that? I assume you would be looking at Lynn IQ, Afro IQ, and % Met?

    I can create the data file, but there are enough population mapping issues that I would prefer the person interested in the results make those assumptions.

    P.S. If Davide would like to look at this himself IMHO that would be even better.

    P.P.S. Do you have any thoughts why rs4680 does not show up in the results for the latest EA study? https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs4680
    Though that page does show an IQ related connection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24853458?dopt=Abstract
    There is one SNP in the EA study that is in fairly high LD (D’ = 0.8, r^2 =0.28 in CEU) with rs4680: rs2240715, but the p value is 0.7 with a small beta (I did not check exhaustively, just a quick visual look at chr 22 hits). Actually, rs165655 is also similar.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    Thanks so much, res.

    I used an online correlation coefficient and linear regression calculator and calculated the correlation with Afrosapiens IQ data ( https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/ see "Results") for thirty-two (32) populations/nations:

    Sample size: 32

    Correlation coefficient (r): 0.41594921999427 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Sample size: 32
    Mean x (x̄): 86.75
    Mean y (ȳ): 0.398859375
    Intercept (a): -0.037613843077569
    Slope (b): 0.0050313915628538
    Regression line equation: y=0.0050313915628538x-0.037613843077569 : http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/correlation-coefficient/

    Image linear regression: http://www.alcula.com/calculators/statistics/linear-regression/linear-regression-image.php?n=1

    IQ,Met% Country
    104,0.609 Denmark
    102,0.512 Ireland
    100,0.53 UK
    99,0.572 Estonia
    99,0.248 Korea
    97,0.529 Finland
    97,0.47 France
    97,0.304 Japan
    96,0.533 Hungary
    96,0.46 Italy
    96,0.43 Spain
    95,0.478 Russia
    91,0.25 Mongolia
    89,0.5 Iran
    87,0.45 Turkey
    86,0.416 Lebanon
    86,0.6 Mexico
    85,0.221 Thailand
    85,0.57 Palestine
    85,0.135 Micronesia
    84,0.243 China
    83,0.3 Vietnam
    79,0.232 India
    79,0.2475 Ghana
    77,0.345 Kenya
    75,0.332 Nigeria
    74,0.297 Cambodia
    71,0.416 Syria
    72,0.44 Papa New Guinea
    72,0.299 Tanzania
    70,0.465 Pakistan
    68,0.33 Senegal

    It actually weakened the correlation from r = 0.579 Lynn to r = 0.415 Afrosapiens.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • @Steve Gittelson
    Frankly, I believe you have created a number of stories in your mind, and you indulge in variations and adaptations of those stories.

    Far be it from me to concern myself with what you believe and why you believe it.

    But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.
    --Thomas Jefferson, Notes on Virginia, 1782

    Thanks, Steve, for trying to understand. And thanks for the interesting responses.

    I am not going to ramble on here, but if you are interested, I have posted a couple hundred times as “Efim Polenov” at the Marginal Revolution blog, where I attempt to explain, again and again, in a kind-hearted and sometimes consciously foolish way, why intelligent scientists and scholars and honest citizens of our contemporary democratic world should at least feel some respect for those who claim to understand why, exactly why, we all know God loves us, even if we are ignoring that knowledge day to day (if you are a person interested in words, the Book of Proverbs, along with Isaiah, is the wonderful gentle place to which I subtly refer every single time, but it is my failing that it is not the whole Bible I refer to, every single time – Eliot was good on this intellectual (just kidding, “intellectual” is not the word that you want) type of lifelong references to books that are, as Schnabel said about musical compositions he liked, better than they can be played – Little Gidding, for example, which refers again and again to the letters of John the Apostle, when read with compassion for the poet’s failings, explains lots of my basic rhetorical tricks in the referring-to-Proverbs-and-Isaiah way. It is kind of simple and not really complicated, but accurate, which is not nothing) .

    If you are not interested in how I explain everything, that is ok too. I have a couple dozen pals who long ago professed their vows as nuns or priests or contemplatives with vows of poverty and I will ask each and every one of them to pray for each of us to understand the world better. God loves us all. Cor ad cor loquitur, dixit Deus, septimo vespertino hora (heart speaks to heart, said God, in the evening hour of the seventh day)

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • @res
    Thanks to you and Piffer for providing this!

    I just downloaded the OSF files. GWAS_EA.to10K.txt appears to be missing. I assume it is the file at https://www.thessgac.org/data so downloaded from there.

    The file.choose mechanism is inconvenient for repeated runs. Would it be possible (I could do this if wanted) to include a small function which takes a binary flag (defined in a single place at the start of the file) and either calls file.choose or loads the default file? Here is a simple version if anyone wants it.

    choose.file <- function(filename, use.chooser=FALSE) {
    if (use.chooser) {
    file.choose()
    } else {
    filename
    }
    }

    use.chooser <- TRUE

    HGDP_CEPH=read.csv(choose.file("Lee_results_10k_final.csv", use.chooser), header=TRUE, sep = ";")#open HGDP-CEPH browser output with freqs from GWAS hits
     
    It might help readability (e.g. the second paragraph) to force line breaks in the output where desired. Adding two spaces at the end of the line does this in R Markdown (otherwise it merges successive lines).

    I found the first bar chart easier to read with "fig.height=8" set.

    The other PGS results and correlations (see either the Rmd files or RPubs) are also very interesting.

    res,

    could you, please, do me a favor and calculate the correlation between the population/nation Met allele frequencies of Mr. Piffer’s following paper: https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culturee28093gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate.pdf

    and Afrosapiens‘s IQ data instead of Lynn’s IQ data, because I believe the correlation will be even stronger and will explain Piffer’s contradictory finding: “Particularly interesting is the relatively low frequency of COMT in East Asian populations (range 0.22–0.30), which contrasts with their reported higher IQ (105).” – p. 169

    Source: https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    This is what I wrote a couple of months ago on this:

    If East Asians were not such hard-working students http://www.unz.com/freed/fun-with-iq-deep-thought/#comment-2095195 and were not performing so well on standardized IQ tests due to their studying habits th[e]n the global correlation between IQ and population COMT Met frequencies would be even higher, in my opinion:

    Correlation of the COMT Val158Met Polymorphism with Latitude and a Hunter-Gather Lifestyle Suggests Culture–Gene Coevolution and Selective Pressure on Cognition Genes Due to Climate

    Davide Piffer, Anthropological Science, July 31, 2013

    Thus, the global correlation between IQ and Met allele frequency is r = 0.579 and highly statistically significant (n = 38; P < 0.001). This supports the prediction that populations with higher Met allele frequency have higher IQ, similarly to the correlation observed at the individual level.

    https://www.amren.com/news/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culture-gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate/

    http://www.unz.com/jderbyshire/time-to-stop-importing-an-immigrant-overclass/#comment-2118604

    I agree with Afrosapiens that Lynn has overestimated East Asian intelligence, and I believe that COMT Met is still the best genetic predictor of intelligence, even though some researchers like Emil Kirkegaard disagree:

    Just commented on this issue over in another Unz Review comments thread, Mr. Thompson, and how these emotional and genetic differences can even affect IQ test scores, etc., since stress-susceptibility is quite a significant moderating/confounding factor when it comes to stressful test taking conditions, in my opinion.
    [...]
    East Asians and Africans, on average, have a competitive advantage under stressful test taking conditions over Caucasians and Mexicans, etc. due to this, in my opinion.
    [...]
    Mr. Kirkegaard thinks that these are “More failed candidate gene ideas.”, but I believe he is jumping to premature conclusion, due to the reasons I stated above

    https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124173

    In this video, the person https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Po_Bronson interviewed claims/estimates that “worriers/strategists” have a 10 IQ point advantage over “warriors” in non-stressful situations/environments. https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124219

    Thank you very much, res.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Sounds like something worth testing. I think the best way to do this is to incorporate the additional data into the analysis in http://rpubs.com/Daxide/377423
    I have that running locally so all I need is the appropriate data.

    The easiest way to do that would be to modify the HGDP_PGS .csv available at https://osf.io/uays8/
    Note the specific populations needed in the first column.

    Would it be possible for you to create a file adding the fields you want to that? I assume you would be looking at Lynn IQ, Afro IQ, and % Met?

    I can create the data file, but there are enough population mapping issues that I would prefer the person interested in the results make those assumptions.

    P.S. If Davide would like to look at this himself IMHO that would be even better.

    P.P.S. Do you have any thoughts why rs4680 does not show up in the results for the latest EA study? https://www.snpedia.com/index.php/Rs4680
    Though that page does show an IQ related connection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24853458?dopt=Abstract
    There is one SNP in the EA study that is in fairly high LD (D' = 0.8, r^2 =0.28 in CEU) with rs4680: rs2240715, but the p value is 0.7 with a small beta (I did not check exhaustively, just a quick visual look at chr 22 hits). Actually, rs165655 is also similar.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • @Daniel Chieh
    This is also why Saudi Arabia is a superstar state now. Please.

    If you can explain how this is any manner related to my comments or your for that matter, I will address it — but as it is — it makes no sense.

    The Middle East has been the target of colonial dynamics.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • In June 2017 I declared open season on Davide Piffer, inviting criticisms of his findings: The official response to Piffer is: “publish, and then we will give you our comments in reply.” This will take time, but it is the traditional way of doing things. The unofficial response is to encourage more criticism right now,...
  • “merciless enquiry and savage criticism”: you mean, is Piffer piffle?

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    precisely. a souffle of barbed wire.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • j2 says:

    Happy to see that you are a bit skeptical of Piffer’s results, I thought I was the only one. They are very good and quite what you might want, and that is the problem I have with them. The polygenic score approach itself is a question mark. Most mutations should be recessive, yet in the polygenic score you count 1=heterozygote, 2=homozygote, as if it was partially dominant. I have a somewhat different view of intelligence, wrote a post here

    http://www.pienisalaliittotutkimus.com/2018/04/20/men-inherit-male-intelligence-from-mom-but-not-the-iq-variance/

    So, I think men have from the X chromosome a different brain structure, and additionally there are the IQ-boosting autosomal genes and the IQ-lowering recessive X-linked genes, that in men get expressed. Piffer’s papers simplify a difficult issue too much to my liking and the results are better than I would expect.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Thanks to you and Piffer for providing this!

    I just downloaded the OSF files. GWAS_EA.to10K.txt appears to be missing. I assume it is the file at https://www.thessgac.org/data so downloaded from there.

    The file.choose mechanism is inconvenient for repeated runs. Would it be possible (I could do this if wanted) to include a small function which takes a binary flag (defined in a single place at the start of the file) and either calls file.choose or loads the default file? Here is a simple version if anyone wants it.

    choose.file <- function(filename, use.chooser=FALSE) {
    if (use.chooser) {
    file.choose()
    } else {
    filename
    }
    }

    use.chooser <- TRUE

    HGDP_CEPH=read.csv(choose.file("Lee_results_10k_final.csv", use.chooser), header=TRUE, sep = ";")#open HGDP-CEPH browser output with freqs from GWAS hits

    It might help readability (e.g. the second paragraph) to force line breaks in the output where desired. Adding two spaces at the end of the line does this in R Markdown (otherwise it merges successive lines).

    I found the first bar chart easier to read with “fig.height=8″ set.

    The other PGS results and correlations (see either the Rmd files or RPubs) are also very interesting.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    res,

    could you, please, do me a favor and calculate the correlation between the population/nation Met allele frequencies of Mr. Piffer's following paper: https://lesacreduprintemps19.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culturee28093gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate.pdf

    https://2kpcwh2r7phz1nq4jj237m22-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/MetFrequency.jpg

    and Afrosapiens's IQ data instead of Lynn's IQ data, because I believe the correlation will be even stronger and will explain Piffer's contradictory finding: "Particularly interesting is the relatively low frequency of COMT in East Asian populations (range 0.22–0.30), which contrasts with their reported higher IQ (105)." - p. 169

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/ranking.png

    Source: https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    This is what I wrote a couple of months ago on this:

    If East Asians were not such hard-working students http://www.unz.com/freed/fun-with-iq-deep-thought/#comment-2095195 and were not performing so well on standardized IQ tests due to their studying habits th[e]n the global correlation between IQ and population COMT Met frequencies would be even higher, in my opinion:

    Correlation of the COMT Val158Met Polymorphism with Latitude and a Hunter-Gather Lifestyle Suggests Culture–Gene Coevolution and Selective Pressure on Cognition Genes Due to Climate

    Davide Piffer, Anthropological Science, July 31, 2013

    Thus, the global correlation between IQ and Met allele frequency is r = 0.579 and highly statistically significant (n = 38; P < 0.001). This supports the prediction that populations with higher Met allele frequency have higher IQ, similarly to the correlation observed at the individual level.

    – https://www.amren.com/news/2014/01/correlation-of-the-comt-val158met-polymorphism-with-latitude-and-a-hunter-gather-lifestyle-suggests-culture-gene-coevolution-and-selective-pressure-on-cognition-genes-due-to-climate/
     

    - http://www.unz.com/jderbyshire/time-to-stop-importing-an-immigrant-overclass/#comment-2118604

    I agree with Afrosapiens that Lynn has overestimated East Asian intelligence, and I believe that COMT Met is still the best genetic predictor of intelligence, even though some researchers like Emil Kirkegaard disagree:

    Just commented on this issue over in another Unz Review comments thread, Mr. Thompson, and how these emotional and genetic differences can even affect IQ test scores, etc., since stress-susceptibility is quite a significant moderating/confounding factor when it comes to stressful test taking conditions, in my opinion.
    [...]
    East Asians and Africans, on average, have a competitive advantage under stressful test taking conditions over Caucasians and Mexicans, etc. due to this, in my opinion.
    [...]
    Mr. Kirkegaard thinks that these are “More failed candidate gene ideas.”, but I believe he is jumping to premature conclusion, due to the reasons I stated above
     

    - https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124173

    In this video, the person https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Po_Bronson interviewed claims/estimates that “worriers/strategists” have a 10 IQ point advantage over “warriors” in non-stressful situations/environments. - https://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-anatomy-of-melancholy/#comment-2124219

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2_3RXmXoM8

    Thank you very much, res.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • @middle aged vet . . .
    Steve - I am not going to disagree with you and say you are wrong, I respect your statements and believe that you are sincere. Smarter people than me have been wrong about God for many more decades than I was.

    I have never believed in the "gods", although when I was young I thought of the ancient Roman gods with deep respect, based on the portraits of Vergilian dolphins on the plastic inflatable swimming pools of the day ("the day" being, roughly, summertime America 50 years ago, with lots of green trees and presumably lots of inflatable swimming pools, whether one lived near or far from the realm of Poseidon - for me, it was a 20 minute car ride to the ocean, but I did not own a car!!! sad, I loved the Ocean !!!!) , and based on the devastatingly accurate corn goddesses one often saw depicted, in beautifully wrought oak or pine woodwork, on the cuckoo clocks in rich people's houses, and based on the fleeting versions of Aphrodite and Apollo and Minerva one saw, depicted sculptures on the back of the stages of plays that almost everybody but me has mostly forgotten, on TV or at the local college theater, back in the day, or in other venues, maybe in the atrium of the college library or maybe on the local village green ....

    But I do believe in God, and I have no reason to believe that God does not need the help of people like you.

    He can do without my help, of course, I lived decades and decades thinking that I knew for certain, and was ok with that, that I could only know the silence of God, even though I knew who He was. But every once in a while I remembered those days when God looked at me with those innocent stupid eyes of His and with that unmatchable empathy of His which I now know is his trademark for most of us (days before I was born, maybe, or when I was uneducated, very uneducated, or days when I faced the prospect of likely death (only 30 or 40 days in my first four decades, but that is still a lot) or days when I faced the likelihood of chronic disease - well, the sort of days we all face, sooner or later) and then I remembered, with a start, that the silence was because I did not want to help Him as much as he would have liked me to. The silence was not because He wanted me to spend a moment thinking he could be silent! Not at all! He was innocent but not stupid, and his empathy was not just what I used to think of as empathy but it was a truth that I ought to have shared as best I could! And,at times, in my humble way, I did: as God is my witness, I tried. That was long ago, yesterday is so long ago to people like us, Steve, remembering the truths of mathematics and arithmetic.

    (What follows is a paragraph of run-on sentences. Please read those sentences, imagining how much better you could have written them: thanks....) It is no small thing to say I did not understand God until I understood that he needed my friendship -
    and it is no small thing to say that once I understood that I remembered every single human interaction I had ever had that demonstrated the truth that, in fact, not only did Adam and Eve and all that gang live real lives, long ago, but also the truth that I, and almost every one I will ever talk to, except them, is older than them, in their fantastic youth: well, once I understood that, I realized that Adam was no myth and Eve was no myth, they may not have felt much of a need to talk to me but if they only knew how many funny stories I could tell them about their grandchildren - well, you know how you go to a party and at first it is kind of awkward and an hour or two later everyone is talking as if they had been friends forever? Like I said, sometime you feel you knew them when they were a lot younger than they are. Memories and all that, and hope.

    Just saying. I have been wrong before. But come on, don't you remember a party that was that good, or almost that good?

    Frankly, I believe you have created a number of stories in your mind, and you indulge in variations and adaptations of those stories.

    Far be it from me to concern myself with what you believe and why you believe it.

    But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.
    –Thomas Jefferson, Notes on Virginia, 1782

    Read More
    • Replies: @middle aged vet . . .
    Thanks, Steve, for trying to understand. And thanks for the interesting responses.

    I am not going to ramble on here, but if you are interested, I have posted a couple hundred times as "Efim Polenov" at the Marginal Revolution blog, where I attempt to explain, again and again, in a kind-hearted and sometimes consciously foolish way, why intelligent scientists and scholars and honest citizens of our contemporary democratic world should at least feel some respect for those who claim to understand why, exactly why, we all know God loves us, even if we are ignoring that knowledge day to day (if you are a person interested in words, the Book of Proverbs, along with Isaiah, is the wonderful gentle place to which I subtly refer every single time, but it is my failing that it is not the whole Bible I refer to, every single time - Eliot was good on this intellectual (just kidding, "intellectual" is not the word that you want) type of lifelong references to books that are, as Schnabel said about musical compositions he liked, better than they can be played - Little Gidding, for example, which refers again and again to the letters of John the Apostle, when read with compassion for the poet's failings, explains lots of my basic rhetorical tricks in the referring-to-Proverbs-and-Isaiah way. It is kind of simple and not really complicated, but accurate, which is not nothing) .

    If you are not interested in how I explain everything, that is ok too. I have a couple dozen pals who long ago professed their vows as nuns or priests or contemplatives with vows of poverty and I will ask each and every one of them to pray for each of us to understand the world better. God loves us all. Cor ad cor loquitur, dixit Deus, septimo vespertino hora (heart speaks to heart, said God, in the evening hour of the seventh day)

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Steve Gittelson

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, “appears” to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called “negative inference”.
     
    The universe appears to be unbounded. That is, there is no evidence that it is bounded. I find the concept of an unbounded universe to be much preferable to that of a bounded universe. An unbounded universe is philosophically pleasing; a bounded universe requires inventive explanation as to why, how, and to what extent it is bounded, and by what barriers, containers, or energies it is bounded. If I were a creator-god, I would have willed it into existence as infinite and eternal.

    I cannot believe the Adam/Eve story, any more than I could believe any of the many creation myths human societies have invented, from Aramaic to Zoroastrian. Primitive human societies were just that: primitive. They lacked sophistication of concept, but apparently literature as novel-form came naturally. That's a joke. I make many little jokes.

    I worry very little about gods. I have my own problems, and they have theirs. One must assume the gods can handle their own problems -- doubtlessly much better than we do ours.

    Steve – I am not going to disagree with you and say you are wrong, I respect your statements and believe that you are sincere. Smarter people than me have been wrong about God for many more decades than I was.

    I have never believed in the “gods”, although when I was young I thought of the ancient Roman gods with deep respect, based on the portraits of Vergilian dolphins on the plastic inflatable swimming pools of the day (“the day” being, roughly, summertime America 50 years ago, with lots of green trees and presumably lots of inflatable swimming pools, whether one lived near or far from the realm of Poseidon – for me, it was a 20 minute car ride to the ocean, but I did not own a car!!! sad, I loved the Ocean !!!!) , and based on the devastatingly accurate corn goddesses one often saw depicted, in beautifully wrought oak or pine woodwork, on the cuckoo clocks in rich people’s houses, and based on the fleeting versions of Aphrodite and Apollo and Minerva one saw, depicted sculptures on the back of the stages of plays that almost everybody but me has mostly forgotten, on TV or at the local college theater, back in the day, or in other venues, maybe in the atrium of the college library or maybe on the local village green ….

    But I do believe in God, and I have no reason to believe that God does not need the help of people like you.

    He can do without my help, of course, I lived decades and decades thinking that I knew for certain, and was ok with that, that I could only know the silence of God, even though I knew who He was. But every once in a while I remembered those days when God looked at me with those innocent stupid eyes of His and with that unmatchable empathy of His which I now know is his trademark for most of us (days before I was born, maybe, or when I was uneducated, very uneducated, or days when I faced the prospect of likely death (only 30 or 40 days in my first four decades, but that is still a lot) or days when I faced the likelihood of chronic disease – well, the sort of days we all face, sooner or later) and then I remembered, with a start, that the silence was because I did not want to help Him as much as he would have liked me to. The silence was not because He wanted me to spend a moment thinking he could be silent! Not at all! He was innocent but not stupid, and his empathy was not just what I used to think of as empathy but it was a truth that I ought to have shared as best I could! And,at times, in my humble way, I did: as God is my witness, I tried. That was long ago, yesterday is so long ago to people like us, Steve, remembering the truths of mathematics and arithmetic.

    (What follows is a paragraph of run-on sentences. Please read those sentences, imagining how much better you could have written them: thanks….) It is no small thing to say I did not understand God until I understood that he needed my friendship –
    and it is no small thing to say that once I understood that I remembered every single human interaction I had ever had that demonstrated the truth that, in fact, not only did Adam and Eve and all that gang live real lives, long ago, but also the truth that I, and almost every one I will ever talk to, except them, is older than them, in their fantastic youth: well, once I understood that, I realized that Adam was no myth and Eve was no myth, they may not have felt much of a need to talk to me but if they only knew how many funny stories I could tell them about their grandchildren – well, you know how you go to a party and at first it is kind of awkward and an hour or two later everyone is talking as if they had been friends forever? Like I said, sometime you feel you knew them when they were a lot younger than they are. Memories and all that, and hope.

    Just saying. I have been wrong before. But come on, don’t you remember a party that was that good, or almost that good?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Gittelson
    Frankly, I believe you have created a number of stories in your mind, and you indulge in variations and adaptations of those stories.

    Far be it from me to concern myself with what you believe and why you believe it.

    But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.
    --Thomas Jefferson, Notes on Virginia, 1782
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @EliteCommInc.
    Colonial practice is not "macro-parasiticism". The colonial practices of japan and Europe engage practices of complete ownership of resources, not siphoning off the wealth of others.

    A different model entirely.

    This is also why Saudi Arabia is a superstar state now. Please.

    Read More
    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    If you can explain how this is any manner related to my comments or your for that matter, I will address it -- but as it is -- it makes no sense.

    The Middle East has been the target of colonial dynamics.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Detailed definitions of data and results tables here: https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/hsw/psychologie/professuren/entwpsy/team/rindermann/pdfs/RindermannCogCapAppendix.pdf
  • @Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
    One can use e.g. http://tabula.technology/ to extract the tables.

    Thanks, Emil. That looks like a good tool to have in the toolbox. In this particular case I had better luck just cutting and pasting to Excel though. I just had to remove a few rows around the page breaks, and Tabula had issues with special character handling.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • One can use e.g. http://tabula.technology/ to extract the tables.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks, Emil. That looks like a good tool to have in the toolbox. In this particular case I had better luck just cutting and pasting to Excel though. I just had to remove a few rows around the page breaks, and Tabula had issues with special character handling.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • @Daniel Chieh
    No, if "macro-parasiticism" as has been called entirely accounted for wealth in the world, then the Mongols and Umayyads would be the great civilizations on Earth.

    They are not.

    Colonial practice is not “macro-parasiticism”. The colonial practices of japan and Europe engage practices of complete ownership of resources, not siphoning off the wealth of others.

    A different model entirely.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    This is also why Saudi Arabia is a superstar state now. Please.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @phil
    For those who still believe that group differences in socioeconomic outcomes (S) are largely explained by skin color and racial discrimination ('colorism'), note the following results for major racial groups in the Americas (North, Central, and South):

    Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 (regional units within the Americas):

    Correlation between S and skin reflectance: 0.60
    Correlation between S and skin reflectance, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.19


    Ruiz-Linares et. al 2014 (individuals in the Americas)

    Correlation between S and self-identified race: 0.52
    Correlation between S and self-identified race, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.08

    For those who want to follow up on this, the Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 results are in Section 14 and Table 48 of https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298214364_Admixture_in_the_Americas_Regional_and_National_Differences
    Note that the cognitive ability correlations are similar at 0.62 and 0.18.

    Table 49 has even stronger evidence rejecting a culture hypothesis (European identity controlled for European ancestry) for both S and CA.

    Section 18 and Table 58 have correlations (within the US) for S and CA with parasite load with and without control for European ancestry.

    More at https://osf.io/78nvf/

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @middle aged vet . . .
    Steve G. that was a very eloquent comment, sometimes I think I read too many comments on too many comment threads and then I read a really well written one like that.

    That being said, and feel free, or course, to ignore this, here are some related thoughts:

    you stated "in an unbounded universe":

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, "appears" to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called "negative inference".

    That being said, according to an impressively well written popular science book I recently read, there probably is reliable, measured, and accurate evidence that if the universe is not unbounded, it is still (or nevertheless, if you prefer) approximately at least 1,000 times as large as the Hubble Sphere (so if the universe is finite, it is still approximately big enough that our 26 billion wide observable part of it is one thousandth of it). (Shing-Tung Yau and Steve Nadis are my source for this, and they are quoting an unpublished interview with Max Tegmark, on page 1 of "The Shape of Inner Space" (Basic Books, 2010). To quote: "the Hubble volume we see is just one out of at least one thousand such volumes that must exist."

    So your assessment stands, because the randomness of "an unbounded universe" and the randomness of a universe that is a thousand times as large as the Hubble volume are, for deductive purposes, almost indistinguishable over the recent time frame of SETI exploration.

    That being said, please recognize that it is possible that the universe is just a few thousand years old, that Adam and Eve spent some time in the Garden of Eden, and that miracles have occurred, and will continue to occur, because such possibilities are not inconsistent with anything anybody has ever discovered. Heart speaks to heart, after all, cor ad cor loquitur.

    This next paragraph is long, but I do think it makes sense. Please be indulgent, and try to remember I am discussing things I have learned from people who are much smarter than myself: .... Yes you might think: but Science! but Evidence! and I would reply: I have no doubt that the stars we see are just as far away as they seem, and that the cosmic distance ladder (Rowan-Robinson's book was one of the best books on the subject) is a Real Thing: but when people wax on about how awesomely large the universe is, I - who 50 years ago decided that, since the best physicists did not look on other physicists as people who understood the world but just people who worked on problems - and they were right! - well I decided it would be just as much fun to wait around and see what they discovered as to do it myself, and I decided to try and understand people, which is the task of a lifetime, just as the task of understanding physics is the task of a lifetime. And when you understand people, you ask yourself, at the end of the day - what makes more sense than Adam and Eve? Why wouldn't there actually be a Fish that kept Jonah alive for 3 days? (and I did read enough Newton and Gauss and Euler to understand that, no, the night sky is not awesomely large - it is just big enough to be big enough to produce, by the actual and confirmed processes we know, the type of things that are necessary for a complex mind - supernova-remnant complex molecules, et cetera, you know what I am talking about). (For the record, I realize that this paragraph is not written in a way that can be understood the first time through. Please read it twice. I said that science is real and that cosmological measurements are accurate but then I said that physicists do not progress by "learning more about everything" but by working on finite problems. People are more complex than the universe, and understanding people leads to the conclusion that every word of the Bible is true. Yes, just as much as millions of Americans watched some HBO show last week, fascinated and entertained, even so Jonah spent a couple days in the belly of a fish, except HBO is there for money, Jonah was there for the truth.)

    To change the subject, Greg Cochran is a go-to guy on why advanced civilizations "do not self-destruct", he has described why our perceptions of the world reach, or tend to, a healthy equilibrium, because that is how our consciousness functions (in a post that I have not been able to find), and he has also said a lot of true things (in my humble opinion) about how civilizations (and, even in the last 4,000 years that I think we have lived, and a fortiori in the dozens of thousands of years Cochran thinks modern humans have lived), there have been a lot of civilizations, not the ten or twenty you might think if you just think of "Roman" and "Hittite" and "Babylonian" and "Chinese" and so on, but exponentially more than that.

    Thanks for reading. I am not a performance artist I really think Adam and Eve loved each other, and had those bickering children we read about. Sad! But also, if I am right, felix peccatum (oh happy fault) = the world is a better place than the most enthusiastic and most gifted mere scientist would feel comfortable claiming that it is. ((**God loves us the way we are, even the physicists, but loves us too much to let us stay that way**)) (a slightly modified quote from "Junebug", a movie from a decade or two ago).

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, “appears” to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called “negative inference”.

    The universe appears to be unbounded. That is, there is no evidence that it is bounded. I find the concept of an unbounded universe to be much preferable to that of a bounded universe. An unbounded universe is philosophically pleasing; a bounded universe requires inventive explanation as to why, how, and to what extent it is bounded, and by what barriers, containers, or energies it is bounded. If I were a creator-god, I would have willed it into existence as infinite and eternal.

    I cannot believe the Adam/Eve story, any more than I could believe any of the many creation myths human societies have invented, from Aramaic to Zoroastrian. Primitive human societies were just that: primitive. They lacked sophistication of concept, but apparently literature as novel-form came naturally. That’s a joke. I make many little jokes.

    I worry very little about gods. I have my own problems, and they have theirs. One must assume the gods can handle their own problems — doubtlessly much better than we do ours.

    Read More
    • Replies: @middle aged vet . . .
    Steve - I am not going to disagree with you and say you are wrong, I respect your statements and believe that you are sincere. Smarter people than me have been wrong about God for many more decades than I was.

    I have never believed in the "gods", although when I was young I thought of the ancient Roman gods with deep respect, based on the portraits of Vergilian dolphins on the plastic inflatable swimming pools of the day ("the day" being, roughly, summertime America 50 years ago, with lots of green trees and presumably lots of inflatable swimming pools, whether one lived near or far from the realm of Poseidon - for me, it was a 20 minute car ride to the ocean, but I did not own a car!!! sad, I loved the Ocean !!!!) , and based on the devastatingly accurate corn goddesses one often saw depicted, in beautifully wrought oak or pine woodwork, on the cuckoo clocks in rich people's houses, and based on the fleeting versions of Aphrodite and Apollo and Minerva one saw, depicted sculptures on the back of the stages of plays that almost everybody but me has mostly forgotten, on TV or at the local college theater, back in the day, or in other venues, maybe in the atrium of the college library or maybe on the local village green ....

    But I do believe in God, and I have no reason to believe that God does not need the help of people like you.

    He can do without my help, of course, I lived decades and decades thinking that I knew for certain, and was ok with that, that I could only know the silence of God, even though I knew who He was. But every once in a while I remembered those days when God looked at me with those innocent stupid eyes of His and with that unmatchable empathy of His which I now know is his trademark for most of us (days before I was born, maybe, or when I was uneducated, very uneducated, or days when I faced the prospect of likely death (only 30 or 40 days in my first four decades, but that is still a lot) or days when I faced the likelihood of chronic disease - well, the sort of days we all face, sooner or later) and then I remembered, with a start, that the silence was because I did not want to help Him as much as he would have liked me to. The silence was not because He wanted me to spend a moment thinking he could be silent! Not at all! He was innocent but not stupid, and his empathy was not just what I used to think of as empathy but it was a truth that I ought to have shared as best I could! And,at times, in my humble way, I did: as God is my witness, I tried. That was long ago, yesterday is so long ago to people like us, Steve, remembering the truths of mathematics and arithmetic.

    (What follows is a paragraph of run-on sentences. Please read those sentences, imagining how much better you could have written them: thanks....) It is no small thing to say I did not understand God until I understood that he needed my friendship -
    and it is no small thing to say that once I understood that I remembered every single human interaction I had ever had that demonstrated the truth that, in fact, not only did Adam and Eve and all that gang live real lives, long ago, but also the truth that I, and almost every one I will ever talk to, except them, is older than them, in their fantastic youth: well, once I understood that, I realized that Adam was no myth and Eve was no myth, they may not have felt much of a need to talk to me but if they only knew how many funny stories I could tell them about their grandchildren - well, you know how you go to a party and at first it is kind of awkward and an hour or two later everyone is talking as if they had been friends forever? Like I said, sometime you feel you knew them when they were a lot younger than they are. Memories and all that, and hope.

    Just saying. I have been wrong before. But come on, don't you remember a party that was that good, or almost that good?

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @EliteCommInc.
    Just an observation --- there's no way to accurately assess the impact of human capital as described in this article, when the societies have engaged in social maldistribution of access to said foundations of the capital in question.


    Europe's wealth during the Victorian age is the direct result of hoarding and managing resources derived from other countries and not investing human or material capital in the same.


    In the US the wealth of the country at one period was derived from the slave trade up to 50% It's hard to calculate the value of human capital under conditions when the human capital was slavery.

    Slipping in the Wealth of Nations in this scenario is to misunderstand what Adam Smith explicated which was to vest human capital and worth based ion fair an honest dealings - one's resources as a market value from which they derive profit.

    In fact what is being assessed her is the consequence of short term gain. King Leopold's privatizing of the Congo under what was essentially a money laundering schema by which to protect profits of illegal, untoward and altogether unsavory business practices could hardly assessed as some manner of naturally occurring human capital of thinking human beings seeking to better that region from which the wealth was derived.

    How one defines human capital matters.And even if one wanted label intelligence or material -- that it was not invested as understood in this article or at the time strongly suggests.

    _______________

    Maybe I am just jealous. But acknowledging that investing in people's intellectual, social and personal investiture is beneficial for one's country hardly sounds all that ground breaking.

    No, if “macro-parasiticism” as has been called entirely accounted for wealth in the world, then the Mongols and Umayyads would be the great civilizations on Earth.

    They are not.

    Read More
    • Replies: @EliteCommInc.
    Colonial practice is not "macro-parasiticism". The colonial practices of japan and Europe engage practices of complete ownership of resources, not siphoning off the wealth of others.

    A different model entirely.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Fredtard
    And therein lies the rub. Adam Smith's calling out of prudence as the key virtue was more than prescient. Superior intelligence has led to greater ability to employ technology to extract/exploit and militarily/economically control resources. But resources, even cognitive ones, are finite.

    Are we affluent, industrious, and intelligent societies too lacking in humility, to enamored of our string of successes conquering nature and nations, that we can not or will not admit to and/or deal with the rapidly approaching ecological collapse that is closing in on all sides? Deny if you must, but the dire warnings are all around us. My cataloguing them won't wake anyone up whose basic worldview doesn't want to countenance the harsh realities.

    Maybe we're too smart for our own good, or at a minimum lack the capacity to adequately address the slowly approaching existential issues. Global warming and the so far unresolved national debt crisis are two examples of failure to act. My favored answer to Fermi's paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).

    Too bad hope and faith are neither intelligent nor prudent.

    My leanings are somewhere between libertarian and conservative, but I drove past a garbage mountain the other day, one of those you can smell for miles, and my first thought was that externalities make it possible for too many people to buy too many things they could not afford if they were on the hook for the entire lifecycle of the product.

    If we did true capitalism and had an ethical government that really cared about proper stewardship of the planet and its resources and life-forms, there would be a collapse of economic life as we know it. Maybe, like Ike and the concentration camps, we should parade the citizenry frequently past the garbage mountains, and then show how much worse it is in the developing world where they care even less.

    To the point about global warming, the science is junk, but it does at least approach addressing the externality of carbon waste. But as we go deeper into the solar minimum we have entered, we’ll probably wish we had triggered more global warming.

    In any case, we need to reduce waste and pollution.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • “North America … $47,094, Northern Europe $35,308, Australia $25,438″: I’ve lived in Australia, in two different states. Those numbers aren’t remotely representative of the Australia I knew. So much so that I wonder whether there’s typo and the last number should be $35,438.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @phil
    For those who still believe that group differences in socioeconomic outcomes (S) are largely explained by skin color and racial discrimination ('colorism'), note the following results for major racial groups in the Americas (North, Central, and South):

    Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 (regional units within the Americas):

    Correlation between S and skin reflectance: 0.60
    Correlation between S and skin reflectance, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.19


    Ruiz-Linares et. al 2014 (individuals in the Americas)

    Correlation between S and self-identified race: 0.52
    Correlation between S and self-identified race, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.08

    Slight amendment to the previous comment:
    For those who still believe that group differences in socioeconomic outcomes (S) are largely explained by skin color and racial discrimination (‘colorism’), note the following results for major racial groups in the Americas (North, Central, and South):

    Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 (regional units within the Americas):

    Correlation between S and skin reflectance: 0.60
    Correlation between S and skin reflectance, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.19

    Ruiz-Linares et. al 2014 (nations within the Americas)

    Correlation between S and self-identified race: 0.52
    Correlation between S and self-identified race, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.08

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • For those who still believe that group differences in socioeconomic outcomes (S) are largely explained by skin color and racial discrimination (‘colorism’), note the following results for major racial groups in the Americas (North, Central, and South):

    Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 (regional units within the Americas):

    Correlation between S and skin reflectance: 0.60
    Correlation between S and skin reflectance, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.19

    Ruiz-Linares et. al 2014 (individuals in the Americas)

    Correlation between S and self-identified race: 0.52
    Correlation between S and self-identified race, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.08

    Read More
    • Replies: @phil
    Slight amendment to the previous comment:
    For those who still believe that group differences in socioeconomic outcomes (S) are largely explained by skin color and racial discrimination (‘colorism’), note the following results for major racial groups in the Americas (North, Central, and South):

    Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 (regional units within the Americas):

    Correlation between S and skin reflectance: 0.60
    Correlation between S and skin reflectance, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.19

    Ruiz-Linares et. al 2014 (nations within the Americas)

    Correlation between S and self-identified race: 0.52
    Correlation between S and self-identified race, controlling for genomic ancestry: 0.08
    , @res
    For those who want to follow up on this, the Fuerst and Kirkegaard 2016 results are in Section 14 and Table 48 of https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298214364_Admixture_in_the_Americas_Regional_and_National_Differences
    Note that the cognitive ability correlations are similar at 0.62 and 0.18.

    Table 49 has even stronger evidence rejecting a culture hypothesis (European identity controlled for European ancestry) for both S and CA.

    Section 18 and Table 58 have correlations (within the US) for S and CA with parasite load with and without control for European ancestry.

    More at https://osf.io/78nvf/
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Steve Gittelson

    My favored answer to Fermi’s paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).
     
    The response to that position is "truly advanced civilizations do not self-destruct".

    Fermi's paradox really isn't. In an unbounded Universe, the probability that any advanced civilization will encounter another advanced civilization is random, at best.

    And don't forget: probability has yet to be a cause of anything at all.

    Steve G. that was a very eloquent comment, sometimes I think I read too many comments on too many comment threads and then I read a really well written one like that.

    That being said, and feel free, or course, to ignore this, here are some related thoughts:

    you stated “in an unbounded universe”:

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, “appears” to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called “negative inference”.

    That being said, according to an impressively well written popular science book I recently read, there probably is reliable, measured, and accurate evidence that if the universe is not unbounded, it is still (or nevertheless, if you prefer) approximately at least 1,000 times as large as the Hubble Sphere (so if the universe is finite, it is still approximately big enough that our 26 billion wide observable part of it is one thousandth of it). (Shing-Tung Yau and Steve Nadis are my source for this, and they are quoting an unpublished interview with Max Tegmark, on page 1 of “The Shape of Inner Space” (Basic Books, 2010). To quote: “the Hubble volume we see is just one out of at least one thousand such volumes that must exist.”

    So your assessment stands, because the randomness of “an unbounded universe” and the randomness of a universe that is a thousand times as large as the Hubble volume are, for deductive purposes, almost indistinguishable over the recent time frame of SETI exploration.

    That being said, please recognize that it is possible that the universe is just a few thousand years old, that Adam and Eve spent some time in the Garden of Eden, and that miracles have occurred, and will continue to occur, because such possibilities are not inconsistent with anything anybody has ever discovered. Heart speaks to heart, after all, cor ad cor loquitur.

    This next paragraph is long, but I do think it makes sense. Please be indulgent, and try to remember I am discussing things I have learned from people who are much smarter than myself: …. Yes you might think: but Science! but Evidence! and I would reply: I have no doubt that the stars we see are just as far away as they seem, and that the cosmic distance ladder (Rowan-Robinson’s book was one of the best books on the subject) is a Real Thing: but when people wax on about how awesomely large the universe is, I – who 50 years ago decided that, since the best physicists did not look on other physicists as people who understood the world but just people who worked on problems – and they were right! – well I decided it would be just as much fun to wait around and see what they discovered as to do it myself, and I decided to try and understand people, which is the task of a lifetime, just as the task of understanding physics is the task of a lifetime. And when you understand people, you ask yourself, at the end of the day – what makes more sense than Adam and Eve? Why wouldn’t there actually be a Fish that kept Jonah alive for 3 days? (and I did read enough Newton and Gauss and Euler to understand that, no, the night sky is not awesomely large – it is just big enough to be big enough to produce, by the actual and confirmed processes we know, the type of things that are necessary for a complex mind – supernova-remnant complex molecules, et cetera, you know what I am talking about). (For the record, I realize that this paragraph is not written in a way that can be understood the first time through. Please read it twice. I said that science is real and that cosmological measurements are accurate but then I said that physicists do not progress by “learning more about everything” but by working on finite problems. People are more complex than the universe, and understanding people leads to the conclusion that every word of the Bible is true. Yes, just as much as millions of Americans watched some HBO show last week, fascinated and entertained, even so Jonah spent a couple days in the belly of a fish, except HBO is there for money, Jonah was there for the truth.)

    To change the subject, Greg Cochran is a go-to guy on why advanced civilizations “do not self-destruct”, he has described why our perceptions of the world reach, or tend to, a healthy equilibrium, because that is how our consciousness functions (in a post that I have not been able to find), and he has also said a lot of true things (in my humble opinion) about how civilizations (and, even in the last 4,000 years that I think we have lived, and a fortiori in the dozens of thousands of years Cochran thinks modern humans have lived), there have been a lot of civilizations, not the ten or twenty you might think if you just think of “Roman” and “Hittite” and “Babylonian” and “Chinese” and so on, but exponentially more than that.

    Thanks for reading. I am not a performance artist I really think Adam and Eve loved each other, and had those bickering children we read about. Sad! But also, if I am right, felix peccatum (oh happy fault) = the world is a better place than the most enthusiastic and most gifted mere scientist would feel comfortable claiming that it is. ((**God loves us the way we are, even the physicists, but loves us too much to let us stay that way**)) (a slightly modified quote from “Junebug”, a movie from a decade or two ago).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Gittelson

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, “appears” to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called “negative inference”.
     
    The universe appears to be unbounded. That is, there is no evidence that it is bounded. I find the concept of an unbounded universe to be much preferable to that of a bounded universe. An unbounded universe is philosophically pleasing; a bounded universe requires inventive explanation as to why, how, and to what extent it is bounded, and by what barriers, containers, or energies it is bounded. If I were a creator-god, I would have willed it into existence as infinite and eternal.

    I cannot believe the Adam/Eve story, any more than I could believe any of the many creation myths human societies have invented, from Aramaic to Zoroastrian. Primitive human societies were just that: primitive. They lacked sophistication of concept, but apparently literature as novel-form came naturally. That's a joke. I make many little jokes.

    I worry very little about gods. I have my own problems, and they have theirs. One must assume the gods can handle their own problems -- doubtlessly much better than we do ours.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Read More
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  • Rindermann’s most cited paper with which he crossed to the “other, the dark or deplorable side” is :

    The g-Factor of International Cognitive Ability Comparisons: The Homogeneity of Results in PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS and IQ-Tests Across Nations, Eur. J. Pers. 21: 667–706 (2007).

    http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/The-g-factor-of-international-cognitive-ability-comparisons-the-homogeneity-of-results-in-PISA-TIMSS-PIRLS-and-IQ-tests-across-nations.pdf

    which he wrote 10 years after his Ph.D and 2 years after his habilitation, meaning that his professional position was already secured and presumably safe.

    I have looked through the paper. It is really trivial yet it has over 300 citations. He gets high correlations among various tests including IQ’s compiled by Lynn (there are some tests that do not correlate well with others, see Table 1). The chief reason for it is because his lists must contain the full range defining countries like Singapore and Yemen. When not so long ago A. Karlin showed a list of PIAAC 2012 scores that he scaled to make it look like quasi IQ (Russia looked very smart on this list) he did not have poor countries on it. I calculated a correlation between his list and Lynn’s IQs and it was merely 0.24 which means IQ explains only 6% of variance of PIAAC scores and vice versa PIAA explains 6% of IQ variance:

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/#comment-2197150

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/#comment-2197201

    It would be more interesting to look at PISA or TIMMS results over longer period of time and see how various countries go up und down depending on their education policies, economic successes and failures. Some countries go up and down on the lists. These countries can be used to undermine the claims that test score results are racially driven.

    One more thing, I do not understand Rindermann’s exercise of extracting some “g-factor” for this battery of tests. It does not contribute anything.

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  • You cannot consider Adam Smith’s theory without considering a ventral point concerning human capital

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  • @res
    Sounds like a great book. Just ordered a copy. Thanks! Do you know how much of the data he uses for the analysis is publicly available?

    Thanks for this insight:

    Another misunderstanding is the Nazi attitude to intelligence testing: in fact, the Nazis were opposed to intelligence research, which they saw as an instrument of “Jewry”. They specially opposed the concept of intelligence as a “one-dimensional dimension” and as “one common central factor”. They wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. They favoured “practical intelligence”. In their view, general intelligence did not exist. Odd, isn’t it, that these views, a commonplace today among those who reject intelligence research, should be so similar to the Nazi position.
     
    The US Amazon page for the book: https://www.amazon.com/Cognitive-Capitalism-Capital-Wellbeing-Nations/dp/1107651085
    has an interesting review by Volkmar Weiss. He wrote Wikipedia reference 19 below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkmar_Weiss

    The DUF1220 CNV was new to me. I must have missed it when you wrote about it (Wikipedia reference 13 below, Davis et al. 2014) three years ago:
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/copy-number-intelligence/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DUF1220

    Cognitive dysfunction is a feature of multiple neuropsychiatric diseases, and many individuals with 1q21 deletion and duplication syndromes have developmental delay. Given this, the role of DUF1220 in cognitive function has been investigated. Results of this research demonstrate that DUF1220 copy number is linearly associated with increased cognitive function as measured by total IQ and mathematical aptitude scores, a finding identified in two independent populations.[13][19]. This association has important implications for understanding the interplay between cognitive function and autism phenotypes.[20] These findings also provide additional support for the involvement of DUF1220 in a genomic trade-off model involving the human brain: the same key genes that have been major contributors to the evolutionary expansion of the human brain and human cognitive capacity may also, in different combinations, underlie psychiatric disorders such as autism and schizophrenia. [14]
     
    Has there been any followup on DUF1220 and IQ since then?
    I see 8 papers citing Davis et al. (2014): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?linkname=pubmed_pubmed_citedin&from_uid=25287832
    The only one which looks focused on intelligence is Chen et al. (2017): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28155865
    but I did not see any mention of DUF1220 in the text when I did a quick search.

    This was an interesting tidbit from Davis: "The interaction of CON2 × sex was significant (p = 0.038), suggesting a more pronounced effect in males." Doubly interesting since the NZ data indicates a greater effect on math ability.

    As a commenter (and you) noted in your 2015 post, the effect sizes quoted seem ridiculous. They make a bit more sense when noting that the abstract and Table 1 both pull out males in the NA population which was already selected for brain size extremes. The R^2 for Total WISC IQ seen for that group was nuts: 0.13 or 0.22 depending on measure.

    The NZ results seem more realistic (while still shockingly high, if true) with an R^2 for Total WISC IQ of 0.03 and for PAT math of 0.10 (AFAICT that was both males and females, why did they not break out by sex given the NA results?).

    Some terminology information which might be useful for followup: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29399325

    Some more papers:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3511999/
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556342/ - from that paper it looks like there is a great deal of variation in that area:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556342/bin/12864_2017_3976_Fig1_HTML.jpg

    They include much supplementary material including software to use their methodology to evaluate 1000 Genomes data: https://github.com/dpastling/plethora
    It is beyond my ability, but it would be interesting to analyze the 1000 Genomes data for the population characteristics of DUF1220.

    An interesting patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2014028768A2/en
    Check out the first claim:

    1. A method to select an individual who is predicted to have a low or high intelligence quotient (IQ) comprising:
    a) detecting in a biological sample of cells from an individual a level of a CON2 subtype of DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a level of CON2 subtype DUF1220 domain;
    ii) a level of expression of CON2 subtype DUF1220 protein;
    b) comparing the level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker in the biological sample of cells to a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100; and
    ii) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than or equal to 140; and
    c) selecting the individual as being predicted to have low IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual's cell sample is statistically similar to or less than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100, or d) selecting the individual as being predicted to have high IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual's cell sample is statistically similar to or greater than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than 140.
     
    More on the inventor (last author of Davis et al. 2014): http://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/colleges/medicalschool/departments/biochemistry/Faculty/PrimaryFaculty/Pages/Sikela.aspx
    Note DUF1220 mouse models.
    His papers: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/browse/collection/46221981/?sort=date&direction=descending

    Dr. Thompson, any chance of a post on this January 2018 paper?: Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?/i> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29335774
    Full text at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00439-017-1865-9
    Abstract:

    Evolution often deals in genomic trade-offs: changes in the genome that are beneficial overall persist even though they also produce disease in a subset of individuals. Here, we explore the possibility that such trade-offs have occurred as part of the evolution of the human brain. Specifically, we provide support for the possibility that the same key genes that have been major contributors to the rapid evolutionary expansion of the human brain and its exceptional cognitive capacity also, in different combinations, are significant contributors to autism and schizophrenia. Furthermore, the model proposes that one of the primary genes behind this trade-off may not technically be "a gene" or "genes" but rather are the highly duplicated sequences that encode the Olduvai protein domain family (formerly called DUF1220). This is not an entirely new idea. Others have proposed that the same genes involved in schizophrenia were also critical to the rapid expansion of the human brain, a view that has been expressed as "the same 'genes' that drive us mad have made us human". What is new is that a "gene", or more precisely a protein domain family, has been found that may satisfy these requirements.

     

    Fascinating:

    The most plausible explanation for this unusual distribution is that there is a sequence (or sequences) within the 1q21 CNVs, the dosage of which contributes to these two disorders in opposite ways: high-dosage producing autism while low-dosage producing schizophrenia. Such a shared genomic location for autism and schizophrenia has also been found for three other genomic regions where deletions are associated with one disorder, while duplications are associated with the other,13. These results suggest that autism and schizophrenia are related disorders and may have a shared underlying genomic etiology that involves opposite changes in the dosage of the same specific genes.
     
    That corresponds nicely to a liability threshold model as well.

    Figure 4 is an interesting look at the wide distribution of the different Olduvai (DUF1220) subtypes across Chromosome 1.

    https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00439-017-1865-9/MediaObjects/439_2017_1865_Fig4_HTML.gif

    Note the connection to this idea which I have mentioned before: https://www.amazon.com/Madness-Adam-Eve-Schizophrenia-Humanity/dp/055299930X
    The Sikela paper has a good history of this idea back to Crow in 1995.

    Great comment, and sounds like a great book! Thanks for bringing it to our attention, Dr. Thompson! I’ll buy a copy for myself and my kids…
    On the policy end, however, I think there will be problems…With anything resembling eugenics being ruled out by the ruling classes, it’s tough to see what third world countries can do, because their main problems in this area are dysgenic breeding patterns and major amounts of Brain Drain with respect to their smartest people….With respect to the West, the failure of more intelligent women to have adequate numbers of children, and perhaps other factors, has resulted in steadily declining average IQs, about 1 point per generation according to recent estimates. (I think it’s higher than that.)
    Given that mass education has clearly had no effect on these trends, I wonder what the author recommends?

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  • This section will probably make some people angrily accuse him of descending to anecdotes. Rindermann argues that if the intelligence tests scores are valid, then a visitor to each country should find evidence of how bright the people in that country really are.

    I like the ‘smell test’ argument, at least as an introduction, and it surprises me that it’s not used more often. I find it particularly useful for making the point about individual (ie non-racial) intelligence differences. I like to ask people whether their own experience of school doesn’t comport perfectly with the hereditarian position: wasn’t it obvious that a small number of pupils grasped new concepts with supreme ease; that the great majority could, with some effort, make headway even after a shaky start; and that another small handful were such hopeless cases that it was generally pointless attempting explanations at all?

    With respect to countries, I would urge more caution. The reason is that it’s all too easy to see what you want to see. I spent some time in southeast Europe about a dozen years after the fall of communism. One of the most aggravating differences I found compared to western countries was the consistently poor, lazy and rude customer service – it stood out like a sore thumb. I surely would have been wrong to conclude this was a racial trait, however, since the customer service in neighboring Greece and Turkey – which can hardly be thought to differ genetically to any great degree – was often excellent.

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  • @jack daniels
    While adding a racial qualifier, the Nazis promoted the usual socialist thesis that every person of good will can make meaningful contributions and is roughly equal in overall ability to others. One thing I notice in writers on both left and right who promote the importance of IQ is that they tend to overlook the importance of other merits such as self-discipline, honesty, courage, loyalty, concern for others, etc. Adam Smith did not overlook these when defining human capital. For example, Jews are brighter on average but bright ideas require a work force to follow through on, and if the work force is of low quality the final addition to wealth will be smaller than otherwise.

    One thing I notice in writers on both left and right who promote the importance of IQ is that they tend to overlook the importance of other merits such as self-discipline, honesty, courage, loyalty, concern for others, etc.

    Mostly irrelevant. Resources and opportunity are what count the most — ask any Eskimo.

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  • One way of starting is with the first table 1.1 showing estimates of global and continental income since 1500. Five centuries ago Africa, America and Australia were on $400, Asia $550 and Europe $688. By 2010 North America led the pack with $47,094, Northern Europe $35,308, Australia $25,438 and then a big fall down to South America with $10,607, Asia (India) with $3,337 and Africa (Kenya) with $1,628.

    Although these numbers don’t meaningfully affect the overall argument, they are considerably different to both international historical comparisons provided by the most prestigious institutes dedicated to the task, such as The Conference Board or the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (based on Angus Maddison’s pioneering work) as well as current-year PPP GDP estimates made by the IMF, CIA and World Bank. I don’t want to accuse Rindermann of sloppiness, but unless there is some very good reason he used (or developed himself, which is highly doubtful) the above numbers, it’s hard to see what else to call it.

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  • @Fredtard
    And therein lies the rub. Adam Smith's calling out of prudence as the key virtue was more than prescient. Superior intelligence has led to greater ability to employ technology to extract/exploit and militarily/economically control resources. But resources, even cognitive ones, are finite.

    Are we affluent, industrious, and intelligent societies too lacking in humility, to enamored of our string of successes conquering nature and nations, that we can not or will not admit to and/or deal with the rapidly approaching ecological collapse that is closing in on all sides? Deny if you must, but the dire warnings are all around us. My cataloguing them won't wake anyone up whose basic worldview doesn't want to countenance the harsh realities.

    Maybe we're too smart for our own good, or at a minimum lack the capacity to adequately address the slowly approaching existential issues. Global warming and the so far unresolved national debt crisis are two examples of failure to act. My favored answer to Fermi's paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).

    Too bad hope and faith are neither intelligent nor prudent.

    My favored answer to Fermi’s paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).

    The response to that position is “truly advanced civilizations do not self-destruct”.

    Fermi’s paradox really isn’t. In an unbounded Universe, the probability that any advanced civilization will encounter another advanced civilization is random, at best.

    And don’t forget: probability has yet to be a cause of anything at all.

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    • Replies: @middle aged vet . . .
    Steve G. that was a very eloquent comment, sometimes I think I read too many comments on too many comment threads and then I read a really well written one like that.

    That being said, and feel free, or course, to ignore this, here are some related thoughts:

    you stated "in an unbounded universe":

    There is no evidence, beyond evidence that only, so far, "appears" to be evidence, and which may or may not be reliable, that the universe is unbounded outside of evidence that can be called "negative inference".

    That being said, according to an impressively well written popular science book I recently read, there probably is reliable, measured, and accurate evidence that if the universe is not unbounded, it is still (or nevertheless, if you prefer) approximately at least 1,000 times as large as the Hubble Sphere (so if the universe is finite, it is still approximately big enough that our 26 billion wide observable part of it is one thousandth of it). (Shing-Tung Yau and Steve Nadis are my source for this, and they are quoting an unpublished interview with Max Tegmark, on page 1 of "The Shape of Inner Space" (Basic Books, 2010). To quote: "the Hubble volume we see is just one out of at least one thousand such volumes that must exist."

    So your assessment stands, because the randomness of "an unbounded universe" and the randomness of a universe that is a thousand times as large as the Hubble volume are, for deductive purposes, almost indistinguishable over the recent time frame of SETI exploration.

    That being said, please recognize that it is possible that the universe is just a few thousand years old, that Adam and Eve spent some time in the Garden of Eden, and that miracles have occurred, and will continue to occur, because such possibilities are not inconsistent with anything anybody has ever discovered. Heart speaks to heart, after all, cor ad cor loquitur.

    This next paragraph is long, but I do think it makes sense. Please be indulgent, and try to remember I am discussing things I have learned from people who are much smarter than myself: .... Yes you might think: but Science! but Evidence! and I would reply: I have no doubt that the stars we see are just as far away as they seem, and that the cosmic distance ladder (Rowan-Robinson's book was one of the best books on the subject) is a Real Thing: but when people wax on about how awesomely large the universe is, I - who 50 years ago decided that, since the best physicists did not look on other physicists as people who understood the world but just people who worked on problems - and they were right! - well I decided it would be just as much fun to wait around and see what they discovered as to do it myself, and I decided to try and understand people, which is the task of a lifetime, just as the task of understanding physics is the task of a lifetime. And when you understand people, you ask yourself, at the end of the day - what makes more sense than Adam and Eve? Why wouldn't there actually be a Fish that kept Jonah alive for 3 days? (and I did read enough Newton and Gauss and Euler to understand that, no, the night sky is not awesomely large - it is just big enough to be big enough to produce, by the actual and confirmed processes we know, the type of things that are necessary for a complex mind - supernova-remnant complex molecules, et cetera, you know what I am talking about). (For the record, I realize that this paragraph is not written in a way that can be understood the first time through. Please read it twice. I said that science is real and that cosmological measurements are accurate but then I said that physicists do not progress by "learning more about everything" but by working on finite problems. People are more complex than the universe, and understanding people leads to the conclusion that every word of the Bible is true. Yes, just as much as millions of Americans watched some HBO show last week, fascinated and entertained, even so Jonah spent a couple days in the belly of a fish, except HBO is there for money, Jonah was there for the truth.)

    To change the subject, Greg Cochran is a go-to guy on why advanced civilizations "do not self-destruct", he has described why our perceptions of the world reach, or tend to, a healthy equilibrium, because that is how our consciousness functions (in a post that I have not been able to find), and he has also said a lot of true things (in my humble opinion) about how civilizations (and, even in the last 4,000 years that I think we have lived, and a fortiori in the dozens of thousands of years Cochran thinks modern humans have lived), there have been a lot of civilizations, not the ten or twenty you might think if you just think of "Roman" and "Hittite" and "Babylonian" and "Chinese" and so on, but exponentially more than that.

    Thanks for reading. I am not a performance artist I really think Adam and Eve loved each other, and had those bickering children we read about. Sad! But also, if I am right, felix peccatum (oh happy fault) = the world is a better place than the most enthusiastic and most gifted mere scientist would feel comfortable claiming that it is. ((**God loves us the way we are, even the physicists, but loves us too much to let us stay that way**)) (a slightly modified quote from "Junebug", a movie from a decade or two ago).

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  • @Stogumber
    " They (the"Nazis") wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. "
    Well, that's an interesting subject for future debates. I am inclined to assume that "intellectualism" has not much to do with intelligence (more with an emotional relation to things like concepts and theories). Also I suppose that "conscientiousness" helps: Is an intelligent people where everyone tries to deceive the other really as successful as a conscientious people?
    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of "Nazis" were adversary to the concept of general intelligence. For example, when prominent "Nazi" Adolf Helbok proposed to start the Austrian Atlas of Folklore with a map of local/regional intelligence measurements (a proposal pooh-poohed by his post-war fellow researchers), he spoke about intelligence in general.

    I’m inclined to agree. There were many German intellectuals who were considered Nazis or pre-cursors to the Nazi movement. I can easily see some of them spouting such ideas without it having much relevancy to how the government and military actually operated.

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  • @res

    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of “Nazis” were adversary to the concept of general intelligence.
     
    I think you are right, but Jews scoring higher on IQ tests was an inconvenient truth. Hence the rationalizations. Does the book provide contemporary references about Nazi views on intelligence and IQ?

    P.S. Utu, I interpreted the Nazi passage (what does the book actually say?) more as an ironic observation than as virtue signaling.

    While adding a racial qualifier, the Nazis promoted the usual socialist thesis that every person of good will can make meaningful contributions and is roughly equal in overall ability to others. One thing I notice in writers on both left and right who promote the importance of IQ is that they tend to overlook the importance of other merits such as self-discipline, honesty, courage, loyalty, concern for others, etc. Adam Smith did not overlook these when defining human capital. For example, Jews are brighter on average but bright ideas require a work force to follow through on, and if the work force is of low quality the final addition to wealth will be smaller than otherwise.

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    • Replies: @Steve Gittelson

    One thing I notice in writers on both left and right who promote the importance of IQ is that they tend to overlook the importance of other merits such as self-discipline, honesty, courage, loyalty, concern for others, etc.
     
    Mostly irrelevant. Resources and opportunity are what count the most -- ask any Eskimo.
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  • Adam Smith noted that human capital consists not only in having intelligent people who can figure out what is best to do, but self-disciplined people who, having figured out what they should do, have the will-power actually to do it! Additionally, such attributes as courage, honesty, loyalty, civility, and concern for others would appear relevant to “merit” as in “meritocracy.” Not only are they good traits in themselves, but workers with these traits will perform better.

    This is especially important since the vast majority of the public are not engaged in thinking up innovations but are charged with executing the plans of others.

    If a society grows fat and lazy, clever innovations are worth less than in a society where there are plenty of diligent, energetic people to bring plans to fruition.

    It’s interesting to imagine a society without a lot of smart people but with a lot of energetic and disciplined people. Such a society can trade brawn for brains by inducing inventors to set up shop locally and benefit from virtuous local laborers.

    This introduces a second issue: A country that for one reason or another has a superior army can enslave or subjugate a country with a good work force and get the benefits of its virtuous habits without sharing the incremental fruits those habits produce. Or will the workers be less virtuous when working for occupiers? Or will the land of virtuous workers trade enough brawn to get some good generals who can build up an effective army? Isn’t game theory wonderful?

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  • “The good news for the world is that longevity has shot up…”

    I’m sceptical of the uncritical acceptance of longevity as good news. Longevity in itself contains no useful information about the conditions under which the additional years are spent, nor the ability of those added years to be of any general benefit.

    Many of the commonly used indicators of health and success have a similar myopic “penny wise, pound foolish” view. Decreased infant mortality is great… but is it really? Human beings cannot be the sole exception to the basic rule that scarcity and demand determines value. Increased surplus inevitably becomes a liability.

    The creation of wealth is proportional to a lot of measurements. Cancer incidence, waste production, deforestation… one may as well say that cognitive ability mainly exists to provide each successive generation with partial solutions and additional challenges. Establishing that cognition and wealth are directly correlated does not in itself entail regarding either measurement as a purely or even largely positive one.

    “If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger but not a better or a happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will be content to be stationary, long before necessity compels them to it.” – John Stuart Mill

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  • Just an observation — there’s no way to accurately assess the impact of human capital as described in this article, when the societies have engaged in social maldistribution of access to said foundations of the capital in question.

    Europe’s wealth during the Victorian age is the direct result of hoarding and managing resources derived from other countries and not investing human or material capital in the same.

    In the US the wealth of the country at one period was derived from the slave trade up to 50% It’s hard to calculate the value of human capital under conditions when the human capital was slavery.

    Slipping in the Wealth of Nations in this scenario is to misunderstand what Adam Smith explicated which was to vest human capital and worth based ion fair an honest dealings – one’s resources as a market value from which they derive profit.

    In fact what is being assessed her is the consequence of short term gain. King Leopold’s privatizing of the Congo under what was essentially a money laundering schema by which to protect profits of illegal, untoward and altogether unsavory business practices could hardly assessed as some manner of naturally occurring human capital of thinking human beings seeking to better that region from which the wealth was derived.

    How one defines human capital matters.And even if one wanted label intelligence or material — that it was not invested as understood in this article or at the time strongly suggests.

    _______________

    Maybe I am just jealous. But acknowledging that investing in people’s intellectual, social and personal investiture is beneficial for one’s country hardly sounds all that ground breaking.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No, if "macro-parasiticism" as has been called entirely accounted for wealth in the world, then the Mongols and Umayyads would be the great civilizations on Earth.

    They are not.
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  • @YetAnotherAnon
    Sort of off topic, but the New Statesman seem to have raised the white flag on genetics and intelligence. This, by one Philip Ball.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/04/iq-trap-how-new-genetics-could-transform-education

    "What does the science tell us about genes and intelligence? For geneticists, the challenge with any behavioural trait is to distinguish inherited influences from environmental ones. Are you smart (or not) because of your genes, or your home and school environment? For many years, the only way to separate these factors was through twin studies. This is a somewhat coarse way of controlling for genetic similarity, which entails looking at how the traits of identical and non-identical twins (who are 100 per cent or 50 per cent genetically identical, respectively) differ when they share or don’t share the same background – for example, when they are adopted into different family environments.

    But now it’s possible to look directly at people’s genomes: to read the molecular code (sequence) of large proportions of an individual’s DNA. Over the past decade the cost of genome sequencing has fallen sharply, making it possible to look more directly at how genes correlate with intelligence. The data both from twin studies and DNA analysis are unambiguous: intelligence is strongly heritable. Typically around 50 per cent of variations in intelligence between individuals can be ascribed to genes, although these gene-induced differences become markedly more apparent as we age. As Ritchie says: like it or not, the debate about whether genes affect intelligence is over."
     
    Mind, I agree with Steven Pinker's tweet - you don't need DNA testing to know someone's IQ, a plain old IQ test is better.

    https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/986468194423574528

    The New Statesman piece is one of the best treatments of genetics and intelligence I have seen in the popular press. Thanks! I hope Philip Ball does not get Watsoned.

    That Steven Pinker tweet is a great example of his ability to find a true yet politically palatable position. I might quibble with “overblown”, but the rest is hard to argue with. What he studiously ignores is the cases where genotyping might be useful. He also artfully uses “probably” twice obscuring his own views.

    P.S. I managed to miss the Toby Young blog post kerfuffle. Here is a Quillete piece about it: http://quillette.com/2017/10/31/education-ngo-faces-backlash-academics-retracting-essay-citing-intelligence-research/
    and the controversial blog post (reproduced here after deletion): http://www.nosacredcows.co.uk/opinion_pieces/3050/article.html

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  • @The Alarmist
    Well, it's actually the application of human capital to resources that unlocks the value of both, but I guess that is self-evident.

    Nothing about magic dirt, eh?

    And therein lies the rub. Adam Smith’s calling out of prudence as the key virtue was more than prescient. Superior intelligence has led to greater ability to employ technology to extract/exploit and militarily/economically control resources. But resources, even cognitive ones, are finite.

    Are we affluent, industrious, and intelligent societies too lacking in humility, to enamored of our string of successes conquering nature and nations, that we can not or will not admit to and/or deal with the rapidly approaching ecological collapse that is closing in on all sides? Deny if you must, but the dire warnings are all around us. My cataloguing them won’t wake anyone up whose basic worldview doesn’t want to countenance the harsh realities.

    Maybe we’re too smart for our own good, or at a minimum lack the capacity to adequately address the slowly approaching existential issues. Global warming and the so far unresolved national debt crisis are two examples of failure to act. My favored answer to Fermi’s paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).

    Too bad hope and faith are neither intelligent nor prudent.

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    • Replies: @Steve Gittelson

    My favored answer to Fermi’s paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).
     
    The response to that position is "truly advanced civilizations do not self-destruct".

    Fermi's paradox really isn't. In an unbounded Universe, the probability that any advanced civilization will encounter another advanced civilization is random, at best.

    And don't forget: probability has yet to be a cause of anything at all.
    , @The Alarmist
    My leanings are somewhere between libertarian and conservative, but I drove past a garbage mountain the other day, one of those you can smell for miles, and my first thought was that externalities make it possible for too many people to buy too many things they could not afford if they were on the hook for the entire lifecycle of the product.

    If we did true capitalism and had an ethical government that really cared about proper stewardship of the planet and its resources and life-forms, there would be a collapse of economic life as we know it. Maybe, like Ike and the concentration camps, we should parade the citizenry frequently past the garbage mountains, and then show how much worse it is in the developing world where they care even less.

    To the point about global warming, the science is junk, but it does at least approach addressing the externality of carbon waste. But as we go deeper into the solar minimum we have entered, we'll probably wish we had triggered more global warming.

    In any case, we need to reduce waste and pollution.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Stogumber
    " They (the"Nazis") wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. "
    Well, that's an interesting subject for future debates. I am inclined to assume that "intellectualism" has not much to do with intelligence (more with an emotional relation to things like concepts and theories). Also I suppose that "conscientiousness" helps: Is an intelligent people where everyone tries to deceive the other really as successful as a conscientious people?
    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of "Nazis" were adversary to the concept of general intelligence. For example, when prominent "Nazi" Adolf Helbok proposed to start the Austrian Atlas of Folklore with a map of local/regional intelligence measurements (a proposal pooh-poohed by his post-war fellow researchers), he spoke about intelligence in general.

    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of “Nazis” were adversary to the concept of general intelligence.

    I think you are right, but Jews scoring higher on IQ tests was an inconvenient truth. Hence the rationalizations. Does the book provide contemporary references about Nazi views on intelligence and IQ?

    P.S. Utu, I interpreted the Nazi passage (what does the book actually say?) more as an ironic observation than as virtue signaling.

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    • Replies: @jack daniels
    While adding a racial qualifier, the Nazis promoted the usual socialist thesis that every person of good will can make meaningful contributions and is roughly equal in overall ability to others. One thing I notice in writers on both left and right who promote the importance of IQ is that they tend to overlook the importance of other merits such as self-discipline, honesty, courage, loyalty, concern for others, etc. Adam Smith did not overlook these when defining human capital. For example, Jews are brighter on average but bright ideas require a work force to follow through on, and if the work force is of low quality the final addition to wealth will be smaller than otherwise.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @niteranger
    To those of you interested in evolution and schizophrenia I would suggest the The Origins of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind by Jaynes. The Behavioral Psychos at the University level tried to diss Jaynes but he may get the last laugh from his grave because the more you read the book the more relevant his analyses become.

    Thanks. I have that book but have not read it yet. Should try to find it.

    One thing that intrigues me is this comment (I did a quick search on unz.com): https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/on-schizophrenia/#comment-2008979

    I’m curious if either Henry or his father have read Julian Jaynes’ book “The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind”, and what they think of it. Jaynes suggests that schizophrenia is a remnant of a condition that used to be much more common, before humans became conscious in the way we think of consciousness today, and when “talking to gods” (who he suggests actually resided in a “hidden” part of the brain which analyzed the world and then gave commands that sounded like disembodied voices) was commonplace. It sounds kind of farfetched, but he makes a surprisingly good case.

    It is interesting that this is almost the opposite hypothesis of that proposed in The Madness of Adam and Eve (and the DUF1220 work) if I understand both correctly (increasing vs. decreasing rate of schizophrenia with human consciousness).

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  • Sort of off topic, but the New Statesman seem to have raised the white flag on genetics and intelligence. This, by one Philip Ball.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/04/iq-trap-how-new-genetics-could-transform-education

    “What does the science tell us about genes and intelligence? For geneticists, the challenge with any behavioural trait is to distinguish inherited influences from environmental ones. Are you smart (or not) because of your genes, or your home and school environment? For many years, the only way to separate these factors was through twin studies. This is a somewhat coarse way of controlling for genetic similarity, which entails looking at how the traits of identical and non-identical twins (who are 100 per cent or 50 per cent genetically identical, respectively) differ when they share or don’t share the same background – for example, when they are adopted into different family environments.

    But now it’s possible to look directly at people’s genomes: to read the molecular code (sequence) of large proportions of an individual’s DNA. Over the past decade the cost of genome sequencing has fallen sharply, making it possible to look more directly at how genes correlate with intelligence. The data both from twin studies and DNA analysis are unambiguous: intelligence is strongly heritable. Typically around 50 per cent of variations in intelligence between individuals can be ascribed to genes, although these gene-induced differences become markedly more apparent as we age. As Ritchie says: like it or not, the debate about whether genes affect intelligence is over.”

    Mind, I agree with Steven Pinker’s tweet – you don’t need DNA testing to know someone’s IQ, a plain old IQ test is better.

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    • Replies: @res
    The New Statesman piece is one of the best treatments of genetics and intelligence I have seen in the popular press. Thanks! I hope Philip Ball does not get Watsoned.

    That Steven Pinker tweet is a great example of his ability to find a true yet politically palatable position. I might quibble with "overblown", but the rest is hard to argue with. What he studiously ignores is the cases where genotyping might be useful. He also artfully uses "probably" twice obscuring his own views.

    P.S. I managed to miss the Toby Young blog post kerfuffle. Here is a Quillete piece about it: http://quillette.com/2017/10/31/education-ngo-faces-backlash-academics-retracting-essay-citing-intelligence-research/
    and the controversial blog post (reproduced here after deletion): http://www.nosacredcows.co.uk/opinion_pieces/3050/article.html
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • ” They (the”Nazis”) wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. ”
    Well, that’s an interesting subject for future debates. I am inclined to assume that “intellectualism” has not much to do with intelligence (more with an emotional relation to things like concepts and theories). Also I suppose that “conscientiousness” helps: Is an intelligent people where everyone tries to deceive the other really as successful as a conscientious people?
    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of “Nazis” were adversary to the concept of general intelligence. For example, when prominent “Nazi” Adolf Helbok proposed to start the Austrian Atlas of Folklore with a map of local/regional intelligence measurements (a proposal pooh-poohed by his post-war fellow researchers), he spoke about intelligence in general.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    On the whole I doubt that the whole bunch of “Nazis” were adversary to the concept of general intelligence.
     
    I think you are right, but Jews scoring higher on IQ tests was an inconvenient truth. Hence the rationalizations. Does the book provide contemporary references about Nazi views on intelligence and IQ?

    P.S. Utu, I interpreted the Nazi passage (what does the book actually say?) more as an ironic observation than as virtue signaling.
    , @songbird
    I'm inclined to agree. There were many German intellectuals who were considered Nazis or pre-cursors to the Nazi movement. I can easily see some of them spouting such ideas without it having much relevancy to how the government and military actually operated.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @utu
    Looks like Heiner Rindermann despite all his virtue signaling about Nazis still is not a good company.

    Peter Thiel Shamed for Association with Racists
    https://www.queerty.com/peter-thiel-shamed-association-racists-20160729

    It’s the annual conference of the Property and Freedom Society, and while the name may sound boring its members are anything but. There’s founder Hans Hermann-Hoppe from the University of Nevada, who said that in his ideal society, homosexuals and communists “will have to be physically separated and expelled from society.” There’s also Gerd Schulze-Ronhof, an author who says that the US, not Hitler, caused World War II. And Heiner Rindermann, a psychologist whose work is often cited by racists seeking to prove that immigrants have low IQs.

     

    Re queerty — Geez, what a massive faggotry…. Homos, it seems, don’t want equality; they want live to in their own Homotopia, where everything is related to their version of sex & life…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Santoculto
    Supposed to be, you don't want to live in your own kaldiantopia...
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  • Well, it’s actually the application of human capital to resources that unlocks the value of both, but I guess that is self-evident.

    Nothing about magic dirt, eh?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Fredtard
    And therein lies the rub. Adam Smith's calling out of prudence as the key virtue was more than prescient. Superior intelligence has led to greater ability to employ technology to extract/exploit and militarily/economically control resources. But resources, even cognitive ones, are finite.

    Are we affluent, industrious, and intelligent societies too lacking in humility, to enamored of our string of successes conquering nature and nations, that we can not or will not admit to and/or deal with the rapidly approaching ecological collapse that is closing in on all sides? Deny if you must, but the dire warnings are all around us. My cataloguing them won't wake anyone up whose basic worldview doesn't want to countenance the harsh realities.

    Maybe we're too smart for our own good, or at a minimum lack the capacity to adequately address the slowly approaching existential issues. Global warming and the so far unresolved national debt crisis are two examples of failure to act. My favored answer to Fermi's paradox is the one which posits that all advanced civilizations self-destruct(ed).

    Too bad hope and faith are neither intelligent nor prudent.
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  • @James Thompson
    Corrected. Thanks for noticing.

    You were right first time.

    From dictionary.com. …Comprise is a verb that means “to include or contain” or “to consist of” as in The pie comprises 8 slices. Compose means “to be or constitute a part of element of” or “to make up or form the basis of,” as in Eight slices compose the pie. The key rule to remember is that the whole comprises the elements or parts, and the elements or parts compose the whole.

    In your sentence beginning “As to human capital, Adam Smith understood perfectly that it comprised “superior reasoning and understanding,” it is clear that human capital is the whole and superior reasoning and understanding are the parts.

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  • Looks like Heiner Rindermann despite all his virtue signaling about Nazis still is not a good company.

    Peter Thiel Shamed for Association with Racists

    https://www.queerty.com/peter-thiel-shamed-association-racists-20160729

    It’s the annual conference of the Property and Freedom Society, and while the name may sound boring its members are anything but. There’s founder Hans Hermann-Hoppe from the University of Nevada, who said that in his ideal society, homosexuals and communists “will have to be physically separated and expelled from society.” There’s also Gerd Schulze-Ronhof, an author who says that the US, not Hitler, caused World War II. And Heiner Rindermann, a psychologist whose work is often cited by racists seeking to prove that immigrants have low IQs.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Re queerty -- Geez, what a massive faggotry.... Homos, it seems, don't want equality; they want live to in their own Homotopia, where everything is related to their version of sex & life...
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • To those of you interested in evolution and schizophrenia I would suggest the The Origins of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind by Jaynes. The Behavioral Psychos at the University level tried to diss Jaynes but he may get the last laugh from his grave because the more you read the book the more relevant his analyses become.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks. I have that book but have not read it yet. Should try to find it.

    One thing that intrigues me is this comment (I did a quick search on unz.com): https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/on-schizophrenia/#comment-2008979

    I’m curious if either Henry or his father have read Julian Jaynes’ book “The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind”, and what they think of it. Jaynes suggests that schizophrenia is a remnant of a condition that used to be much more common, before humans became conscious in the way we think of consciousness today, and when “talking to gods” (who he suggests actually resided in a “hidden” part of the brain which analyzed the world and then gave commands that sounded like disembodied voices) was commonplace. It sounds kind of farfetched, but he makes a surprisingly good case.
     
    It is interesting that this is almost the opposite hypothesis of that proposed in The Madness of Adam and Eve (and the DUF1220 work) if I understand both correctly (increasing vs. decreasing rate of schizophrenia with human consciousness).
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Allison
    That's really interesting! Do you know anything about where bipolar disorder might fit in there?

    Good question. I did not see anything about DUF1220 and bipolar disorder when I was researching my initial comment. A quick search now also did not give any good hits.

    I do think a connection is plausible though. Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder seem to be related genetically. For example, see this from 2013: https://www.nimh.nih.gov/news/science-news/2013/new-data-reveal-extent-of-genetic-overlap-between-major-mental-disorders.shtml

    My guess would be it is mostly a matter of the DUF1220 and bipolar research just not having been done yet. It looks like the primary researchers are running with their schizophrenia/autism idea (e.g. not actively expanding the scope of their research) and I think DUF1220 genotyping is complex and unusual enough that it won’t show up in studies unless someone is making a special effort to look at it. Seems like a good opportunity for someone to pursue.

    Here is some recent research which connects autism, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180208141346.htm
    The SCZ-BD transcription and SNP-based correlations reported in Figure 2C of the underlying paper http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6376/693 are by far the highest at ~0.7 for both.

    What do you think?

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  • @res
    Interesting thoughts. My take would be:

    Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional – a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?
     
    I don't think regression to the mean is related. Regression to the mean is more about environmental extremes being muted out when extreme phenotypes reproduce. Though after writing the rest of this comment I think I see what you might be getting at, there is some intuitive similarity with tendency to stabilize around the mean. There might be a tie in with the possibility of tending to regress towards the mean outcome expected from a liability threshold model. Put another way, not very "liable" (genotypically lower risk, say near the threshold) but still dysfunctional individuals are more likely to be functional in the next generation. While genotypically higher risk (well exceeding the threshold) individuals who are also dysfunctional may be more likely to just not reproduce as you discuss below.

    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?
     
    That seems like a reasonable way of maintaining the gene pool close to an optimum middle ground when either extreme is a problem. It seems necessary to achieve a stable equilibrium in the face of random genetic variation.

    What does this show?
     
    (Referring to "Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?")

    I think a reasonable summary would be that qualities intrinsic to having (creating and maintaining genetically over time) a human caliber brain also make it a tense equilibrium between autism and schizophrenia with inevitable variation into both extremes.

    That’s really interesting! Do you know anything about where bipolar disorder might fit in there?

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Good question. I did not see anything about DUF1220 and bipolar disorder when I was researching my initial comment. A quick search now also did not give any good hits.

    I do think a connection is plausible though. Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder seem to be related genetically. For example, see this from 2013: https://www.nimh.nih.gov/news/science-news/2013/new-data-reveal-extent-of-genetic-overlap-between-major-mental-disorders.shtml

    My guess would be it is mostly a matter of the DUF1220 and bipolar research just not having been done yet. It looks like the primary researchers are running with their schizophrenia/autism idea (e.g. not actively expanding the scope of their research) and I think DUF1220 genotyping is complex and unusual enough that it won't show up in studies unless someone is making a special effort to look at it. Seems like a good opportunity for someone to pursue.

    Here is some recent research which connects autism, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180208141346.htm
    The SCZ-BD transcription and SNP-based correlations reported in Figure 2C of the underlying paper http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6376/693 are by far the highest at ~0.7 for both.

    What do you think?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Detailed definitions of data and results tables here: https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/hsw/psychologie/professuren/entwpsy/team/rindermann/pdfs/RindermannCogCapAppendix.pdf
  • What a wonderful gesture by the author!

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  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • @James Thompson
    Worth buying. It is an argument supported by facts which can be tested by re-running the analyses and by finding new data. It will help you overcome the stultifying effects of adjacent cow pastures.
    And, happy birthday.

    stultifying? Invigorating: dancing around the cow pats while running home for lunch was part of my education. Not every burgher need be a dull dog.

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  • @dearieme
    You make this book sound fascinating, Dr T. I have a birthday this summer: should I be dropping hints that this book should be one of my presents? (I am a burgher after all, though one of our garden walls divided us from a cow pasture, and one of our hedges from a meadow.)

    Worth buying. It is an argument supported by facts which can be tested by re-running the analyses and by finding new data. It will help you overcome the stultifying effects of adjacent cow pastures.
    And, happy birthday.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dearieme
    stultifying? Invigorating: dancing around the cow pats while running home for lunch was part of my education. Not every burgher need be a dull dog.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Anon[105] • Disclaimer says:

    The Amazon customer review by Volkmar Weiss is worth reading:

    “The landmark book by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen “IQ and the Wealth of Nations” (2002) was and is the most remarkable achievement in this field for the one hundred years since the invention of IQ tests. By correcting IQ phenotypic values biased by the Flynn effect into genotypic IQ values, Richard Lynn laid the groundwork for comparing national differences. In a number of scholarly papers Heiner Rindermann has extended this approach adding the scores of student achievement tests to these comparisons. In this impressive monograph Rindermann extends and generalizes his findings and conclusions. Some chapters, for example, “4. International Ability Differences and Their Development”, pp. 85-164, are written in a very entertaining way. In his final chapter Rindermann suggests, what can be done by human capital policies to improve the world.

    However, completely lacking in this book is a basic chapter on the scaling and the measurement error of the variables used and commented by the author….

    Only a few psychologists all over the world, as Wilhelm Peters (1880-1963), understood ever what geneticists mean by genetic causation, and Rindermann is no exception. The chapter 10, “Causes of National and Historical Differences in Cognitive Ability”, pp. 224-370, a backbone of his book, is about correlations and not of causation….

    It is not true, that there is no ratio scale for general intelligence….

    Rindermann complains that Hanushek and colleagues usually do not cite psychological research. But why Rindermann himself does not cite Oded Galors’ “Natural selection and the origin of economic growth”? …. Rindermann characterizes intelligence without any reference to the “Handbuch Intelligenz” … of his German colleague Detlef H. Rost.

    Despite all this criticism this monograph presents an outstanding contribution of applied science worth reading every page. Rindermann sees very well that his models of linear development are endangered by below average IQ immigration, by differential fertility and by different generation lengths of social strata.

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  • @Dieter Kief

    Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?
     
    What does this show? Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional - a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?
    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?

    Interesting thoughts. My take would be:

    Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional – a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?

    I don’t think regression to the mean is related. Regression to the mean is more about environmental extremes being muted out when extreme phenotypes reproduce. Though after writing the rest of this comment I think I see what you might be getting at, there is some intuitive similarity with tendency to stabilize around the mean. There might be a tie in with the possibility of tending to regress towards the mean outcome expected from a liability threshold model. Put another way, not very “liable” (genotypically lower risk, say near the threshold) but still dysfunctional individuals are more likely to be functional in the next generation. While genotypically higher risk (well exceeding the threshold) individuals who are also dysfunctional may be more likely to just not reproduce as you discuss below.

    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?

    That seems like a reasonable way of maintaining the gene pool close to an optimum middle ground when either extreme is a problem. It seems necessary to achieve a stable equilibrium in the face of random genetic variation.

    What does this show?

    (Referring to “Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?”)

    I think a reasonable summary would be that qualities intrinsic to having (creating and maintaining genetically over time) a human caliber brain also make it a tense equilibrium between autism and schizophrenia with inevitable variation into both extremes.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Allison
    That's really interesting! Do you know anything about where bipolar disorder might fit in there?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Wow! Thanks, I could have missed that.

    BTW, in the next 25 years, expect to see some countries remove their Capitalist yokes and don the the Communist yoke. All they need make the switch is to see Communism done right, rather than stupidly and to see Capitalism done wrong.

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  • Is honesty the best policy? In fact, in situations where people believe they will not be caught, it appears that honesty is considered a costly strategy. Many find that cheating pays, and judicious cheating seems sensible, particularly when it is enough to obtain advantage, without it being too obvious. Crafty. Do the citizens of some...
  • @szopen
    I've lost a wallet once and then I was visited home by shop owner, who carefuly tracked where I could live by using data from the wallet. She wanted nothing in exchange.

    On university, I also was also given back a wallet once; I got back also a cellphone (which was quite expansive at the time) I left somewhere few years ago.

    OTOH once I left a wallet with cash at university and it was not returned.

    So, here you are my anecdotal evidence from Poland: three wallets and one cellphone, one time not returned, two plus one times returned.

    Takeaway: You lose stuff a whole lot!

    :)

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  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • You make this book sound fascinating, Dr T. I have a birthday this summer: should I be dropping hints that this book should be one of my presents? (I am a burgher after all, though one of our garden walls divided us from a cow pasture, and one of our hedges from a meadow.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    Worth buying. It is an argument supported by facts which can be tested by re-running the analyses and by finding new data. It will help you overcome the stultifying effects of adjacent cow pastures.
    And, happy birthday.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @anon
    "Adam Smith understood perfectly that it composed"
    Make that 'comprised'

    Good piece though. Thanks

    Corrected. Thanks for noticing.

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    • Replies: @Lochearn
    You were right first time.

    From dictionary.com. ...Comprise is a verb that means “to include or contain” or “to consist of” as in The pie comprises 8 slices. Compose means “to be or constitute a part of element of” or “to make up or form the basis of,” as in Eight slices compose the pie. The key rule to remember is that the whole comprises the elements or parts, and the elements or parts compose the whole.

    In your sentence beginning "As to human capital, Adam Smith understood perfectly that it comprised “superior reasoning and understanding," it is clear that human capital is the whole and superior reasoning and understanding are the parts.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @res
    Sounds like a great book. Just ordered a copy. Thanks! Do you know how much of the data he uses for the analysis is publicly available?

    Thanks for this insight:

    Another misunderstanding is the Nazi attitude to intelligence testing: in fact, the Nazis were opposed to intelligence research, which they saw as an instrument of “Jewry”. They specially opposed the concept of intelligence as a “one-dimensional dimension” and as “one common central factor”. They wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. They favoured “practical intelligence”. In their view, general intelligence did not exist. Odd, isn’t it, that these views, a commonplace today among those who reject intelligence research, should be so similar to the Nazi position.
     
    The US Amazon page for the book: https://www.amazon.com/Cognitive-Capitalism-Capital-Wellbeing-Nations/dp/1107651085
    has an interesting review by Volkmar Weiss. He wrote Wikipedia reference 19 below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkmar_Weiss

    The DUF1220 CNV was new to me. I must have missed it when you wrote about it (Wikipedia reference 13 below, Davis et al. 2014) three years ago:
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/copy-number-intelligence/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DUF1220

    Cognitive dysfunction is a feature of multiple neuropsychiatric diseases, and many individuals with 1q21 deletion and duplication syndromes have developmental delay. Given this, the role of DUF1220 in cognitive function has been investigated. Results of this research demonstrate that DUF1220 copy number is linearly associated with increased cognitive function as measured by total IQ and mathematical aptitude scores, a finding identified in two independent populations.[13][19]. This association has important implications for understanding the interplay between cognitive function and autism phenotypes.[20] These findings also provide additional support for the involvement of DUF1220 in a genomic trade-off model involving the human brain: the same key genes that have been major contributors to the evolutionary expansion of the human brain and human cognitive capacity may also, in different combinations, underlie psychiatric disorders such as autism and schizophrenia. [14]
     
    Has there been any followup on DUF1220 and IQ since then?
    I see 8 papers citing Davis et al. (2014): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?linkname=pubmed_pubmed_citedin&from_uid=25287832
    The only one which looks focused on intelligence is Chen et al. (2017): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28155865
    but I did not see any mention of DUF1220 in the text when I did a quick search.

    This was an interesting tidbit from Davis: "The interaction of CON2 × sex was significant (p = 0.038), suggesting a more pronounced effect in males." Doubly interesting since the NZ data indicates a greater effect on math ability.

    As a commenter (and you) noted in your 2015 post, the effect sizes quoted seem ridiculous. They make a bit more sense when noting that the abstract and Table 1 both pull out males in the NA population which was already selected for brain size extremes. The R^2 for Total WISC IQ seen for that group was nuts: 0.13 or 0.22 depending on measure.

    The NZ results seem more realistic (while still shockingly high, if true) with an R^2 for Total WISC IQ of 0.03 and for PAT math of 0.10 (AFAICT that was both males and females, why did they not break out by sex given the NA results?).

    Some terminology information which might be useful for followup: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29399325

    Some more papers:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3511999/
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556342/ - from that paper it looks like there is a great deal of variation in that area:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556342/bin/12864_2017_3976_Fig1_HTML.jpg

    They include much supplementary material including software to use their methodology to evaluate 1000 Genomes data: https://github.com/dpastling/plethora
    It is beyond my ability, but it would be interesting to analyze the 1000 Genomes data for the population characteristics of DUF1220.

    An interesting patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2014028768A2/en
    Check out the first claim:

    1. A method to select an individual who is predicted to have a low or high intelligence quotient (IQ) comprising:
    a) detecting in a biological sample of cells from an individual a level of a CON2 subtype of DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a level of CON2 subtype DUF1220 domain;
    ii) a level of expression of CON2 subtype DUF1220 protein;
    b) comparing the level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker in the biological sample of cells to a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100; and
    ii) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than or equal to 140; and
    c) selecting the individual as being predicted to have low IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual's cell sample is statistically similar to or less than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100, or d) selecting the individual as being predicted to have high IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual's cell sample is statistically similar to or greater than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than 140.
     
    More on the inventor (last author of Davis et al. 2014): http://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/colleges/medicalschool/departments/biochemistry/Faculty/PrimaryFaculty/Pages/Sikela.aspx
    Note DUF1220 mouse models.
    His papers: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/browse/collection/46221981/?sort=date&direction=descending

    Dr. Thompson, any chance of a post on this January 2018 paper?: Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?/i> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29335774
    Full text at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00439-017-1865-9
    Abstract:

    Evolution often deals in genomic trade-offs: changes in the genome that are beneficial overall persist even though they also produce disease in a subset of individuals. Here, we explore the possibility that such trade-offs have occurred as part of the evolution of the human brain. Specifically, we provide support for the possibility that the same key genes that have been major contributors to the rapid evolutionary expansion of the human brain and its exceptional cognitive capacity also, in different combinations, are significant contributors to autism and schizophrenia. Furthermore, the model proposes that one of the primary genes behind this trade-off may not technically be "a gene" or "genes" but rather are the highly duplicated sequences that encode the Olduvai protein domain family (formerly called DUF1220). This is not an entirely new idea. Others have proposed that the same genes involved in schizophrenia were also critical to the rapid expansion of the human brain, a view that has been expressed as "the same 'genes' that drive us mad have made us human". What is new is that a "gene", or more precisely a protein domain family, has been found that may satisfy these requirements.

     

    Fascinating:

    The most plausible explanation for this unusual distribution is that there is a sequence (or sequences) within the 1q21 CNVs, the dosage of which contributes to these two disorders in opposite ways: high-dosage producing autism while low-dosage producing schizophrenia. Such a shared genomic location for autism and schizophrenia has also been found for three other genomic regions where deletions are associated with one disorder, while duplications are associated with the other,13. These results suggest that autism and schizophrenia are related disorders and may have a shared underlying genomic etiology that involves opposite changes in the dosage of the same specific genes.
     
    That corresponds nicely to a liability threshold model as well.

    Figure 4 is an interesting look at the wide distribution of the different Olduvai (DUF1220) subtypes across Chromosome 1.

    https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00439-017-1865-9/MediaObjects/439_2017_1865_Fig4_HTML.gif

    Note the connection to this idea which I have mentioned before: https://www.amazon.com/Madness-Adam-Eve-Schizophrenia-Humanity/dp/055299930X
    The Sikela paper has a good history of this idea back to Crow in 1995.

    Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?

    What does this show? Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional – a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?
    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?

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    • Replies: @res
    Interesting thoughts. My take would be:

    Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional – a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?
     
    I don't think regression to the mean is related. Regression to the mean is more about environmental extremes being muted out when extreme phenotypes reproduce. Though after writing the rest of this comment I think I see what you might be getting at, there is some intuitive similarity with tendency to stabilize around the mean. There might be a tie in with the possibility of tending to regress towards the mean outcome expected from a liability threshold model. Put another way, not very "liable" (genotypically lower risk, say near the threshold) but still dysfunctional individuals are more likely to be functional in the next generation. While genotypically higher risk (well exceeding the threshold) individuals who are also dysfunctional may be more likely to just not reproduce as you discuss below.

    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?
     
    That seems like a reasonable way of maintaining the gene pool close to an optimum middle ground when either extreme is a problem. It seems necessary to achieve a stable equilibrium in the face of random genetic variation.

    What does this show?
     
    (Referring to "Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?")

    I think a reasonable summary would be that qualities intrinsic to having (creating and maintaining genetically over time) a human caliber brain also make it a tense equilibrium between autism and schizophrenia with inevitable variation into both extremes.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @James Thompson
    Wow, a lot to understand and comment on. As you know, the general trend is away from individual snippets of code to polygenic scores, so although I note the topic was alive last year, I don't know the current status.
    My next task (James Lee findings) probably begins tomorrow, but I will bear the DUF1220 issue in mind.

    Sorry. I got excited and went off on a very interesting (to me anyway) tangent. It’s pretty bad when my comment is as long as your post. I debated using a MORE tag, but was concerned that might cause issues with me (or others) doing text searches for keywords in my comment in the future.

    James Lee findings also sound interesting. Looking forward to seeing that.

    Do you have any idea how much the DUF1220 issue is on the radar of cognitive genomics researchers like James Lee? If that 3% R^2 (plus 10% R^2 for math test!) in the New Zealand sample is close to real I would expect it to be a big deal.

    If the copy number relationship is close to linear that would fit in well with a PGS. Except for the data being much harder to extract than SNPs. I have not read the research I linked closely enough to be sure, but there appears to be significant complexity in the detailed composition and location of the copies involved.

    P.S. The site software has not shown my last two comments after I posted them. I almost double posted that monster. That is why I failed to catch my italics editing error.

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  • Electrifying post!

    How come Heiner Rindermann’s book is available since January and nobody seemed to care? – Except on amazon… I’ll order my copy in a minute (at my local book shop).
    I’m very pleased to hear that Cognitive Capitalism is published by Cambridge University Press (“and no less”).

    The informations about Nazi’s ideas about IQ testing will be hard to swallow for the usual crowd of IQ-deniers.

    Thanks!

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  • Detailed definitions of data and results tables here: https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/hsw/psychologie/professuren/entwpsy/team/rindermann/pdfs/RindermannCogCapAppendix.pdf
  • Wow. That is great. Thanks to you and Heiner Rindermann!

    I think those data tables will cut and paste cleanly to a spreadsheet which would be fantastic. Will try it when I have more time. Did a quick test with Table A.3 and it looked like it worked with some glitches at the page boundaries which I will need to clean up by hand.

    Thanks again!

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  • The concept of “cognitive capitalism” was used by Yann Boutang in 2008 (modern economies are becoming more knowledge based), but I first heard it used by Heiner Rindermann in a somewhat different sense: cognitive ability is the cause of wealth. Heiner’s earliest mention of it in the title of a paper is one which we...
  • “Adam Smith understood perfectly that it composed”
    Make that ‘comprised’

    Good piece though. Thanks

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    • Replies: @James Thompson
    Corrected. Thanks for noticing.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Wow, a lot to understand and comment on. As you know, the general trend is away from individual snippets of code to polygenic scores, so although I note the topic was alive last year, I don’t know the current status.
    My next task (James Lee findings) probably begins tomorrow, but I will bear the DUF1220 issue in mind.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Sorry. I got excited and went off on a very interesting (to me anyway) tangent. It's pretty bad when my comment is as long as your post. I debated using a MORE tag, but was concerned that might cause issues with me (or others) doing text searches for keywords in my comment in the future.

    James Lee findings also sound interesting. Looking forward to seeing that.

    Do you have any idea how much the DUF1220 issue is on the radar of cognitive genomics researchers like James Lee? If that 3% R^2 (plus 10% R^2 for math test!) in the New Zealand sample is close to real I would expect it to be a big deal.

    If the copy number relationship is close to linear that would fit in well with a PGS. Except for the data being much harder to extract than SNPs. I have not read the research I linked closely enough to be sure, but there appears to be significant complexity in the detailed composition and location of the copies involved.

    P.S. The site software has not shown my last two comments after I posted them. I almost double posted that monster. That is why I failed to catch my italics editing error.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Looking forwards to picking it up and reviewing it when in London.

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  • res says:

    Sounds like a great book. Just ordered a copy. Thanks! Do you know how much of the data he uses for the analysis is publicly available?

    Thanks for this insight:

    Another misunderstanding is the Nazi attitude to intelligence testing: in fact, the Nazis were opposed to intelligence research, which they saw as an instrument of “Jewry”. They specially opposed the concept of intelligence as a “one-dimensional dimension” and as “one common central factor”. They wanted measures of “realism” and “conscientiousness”, not what they regarded as “theoretical intelligence” and “intellectualism”. They favoured “practical intelligence”. In their view, general intelligence did not exist. Odd, isn’t it, that these views, a commonplace today among those who reject intelligence research, should be so similar to the Nazi position.

    The US Amazon page for the book: https://www.amazon.com/Cognitive-Capitalism-Capital-Wellbeing-Nations/dp/1107651085
    has an interesting review by Volkmar Weiss. He wrote Wikipedia reference 19 below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkmar_Weiss

    The DUF1220 CNV was new to me. I must have missed it when you wrote about it (Wikipedia reference 13 below, Davis et al. 2014) three years ago:

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/copy-number-intelligence/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DUF1220

    Cognitive dysfunction is a feature of multiple neuropsychiatric diseases, and many individuals with 1q21 deletion and duplication syndromes have developmental delay. Given this, the role of DUF1220 in cognitive function has been investigated. Results of this research demonstrate that DUF1220 copy number is linearly associated with increased cognitive function as measured by total IQ and mathematical aptitude scores, a finding identified in two independent populations.[13][19]. This association has important implications for understanding the interplay between cognitive function and autism phenotypes.[20] These findings also provide additional support for the involvement of DUF1220 in a genomic trade-off model involving the human brain: the same key genes that have been major contributors to the evolutionary expansion of the human brain and human cognitive capacity may also, in different combinations, underlie psychiatric disorders such as autism and schizophrenia. [14]

    Has there been any followup on DUF1220 and IQ since then?
    I see 8 papers citing Davis et al. (2014): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?linkname=pubmed_pubmed_citedin&from_uid=25287832
    The only one which looks focused on intelligence is Chen et al. (2017): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28155865
    but I did not see any mention of DUF1220 in the text when I did a quick search.

    This was an interesting tidbit from Davis: “The interaction of CON2 × sex was significant (p = 0.038), suggesting a more pronounced effect in males.” Doubly interesting since the NZ data indicates a greater effect on math ability.

    As a commenter (and you) noted in your 2015 post, the effect sizes quoted seem ridiculous. They make a bit more sense when noting that the abstract and Table 1 both pull out males in the NA population which was already selected for brain size extremes. The R^2 for Total WISC IQ seen for that group was nuts: 0.13 or 0.22 depending on measure.

    The NZ results seem more realistic (while still shockingly high, if true) with an R^2 for Total WISC IQ of 0.03 and for PAT math of 0.10 (AFAICT that was both males and females, why did they not break out by sex given the NA results?).

    Some terminology information which might be useful for followup: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29399325

    Some more papers:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3511999/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556342/ – from that paper it looks like there is a great deal of variation in that area:

    They include much supplementary material including software to use their methodology to evaluate 1000 Genomes data: https://github.com/dpastling/plethora
    It is beyond my ability, but it would be interesting to analyze the 1000 Genomes data for the population characteristics of DUF1220.

    An interesting patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/WO2014028768A2/en
    Check out the first claim:

    1. A method to select an individual who is predicted to have a low or high intelligence quotient (IQ) comprising:
    a) detecting in a biological sample of cells from an individual a level of a CON2 subtype of DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a level of CON2 subtype DUF1220 domain;
    ii) a level of expression of CON2 subtype DUF1220 protein;
    b) comparing the level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker in the biological sample of cells to a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker selected from the group consisting of:
    i) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100; and
    ii) a control level of the CON2 subtype DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than or equal to 140; and
    c) selecting the individual as being predicted to have low IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual’s cell sample is statistically similar to or less than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ less than 100, or d) selecting the individual as being predicted to have high IQ, if the level of the DUF1220 biomarker in the individual’s cell sample is statistically similar to or greater than the control level of the DUF1220 biomarker that has been correlated with IQ greater than 140.

    More on the inventor (last author of Davis et al. 2014): http://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/colleges/medicalschool/departments/biochemistry/Faculty/PrimaryFaculty/Pages/Sikela.aspx
    Note DUF1220 mouse models.
    His papers: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/myncbi/browse/collection/46221981/?sort=date&direction=descending

    Dr. Thompson, any chance of a post on this January 2018 paper?: Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?/i> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29335774
    Full text at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00439-017-1865-9
    Abstract:

    Evolution often deals in genomic trade-offs: changes in the genome that are beneficial overall persist even though they also produce disease in a subset of individuals. Here, we explore the possibility that such trade-offs have occurred as part of the evolution of the human brain. Specifically, we provide support for the possibility that the same key genes that have been major contributors to the rapid evolutionary expansion of the human brain and its exceptional cognitive capacity also, in different combinations, are significant contributors to autism and schizophrenia. Furthermore, the model proposes that one of the primary genes behind this trade-off may not technically be “a gene” or “genes” but rather are the highly duplicated sequences that encode the Olduvai protein domain family (formerly called DUF1220). This is not an entirely new idea. Others have proposed that the same genes involved in schizophrenia were also critical to the rapid expansion of the human brain, a view that has been expressed as “the same ‘genes’ that drive us mad have made us human”. What is new is that a “gene”, or more precisely a protein domain family, has been found that may satisfy these requirements.

    Fascinating:

    The most plausible explanation for this unusual distribution is that there is a sequence (or sequences) within the 1q21 CNVs, the dosage of which contributes to these two disorders in opposite ways: high-dosage producing autism while low-dosage producing schizophrenia. Such a shared genomic location for autism and schizophrenia has also been found for three other genomic regions where deletions are associated with one disorder, while duplications are associated with the other,13. These results suggest that autism and schizophrenia are related disorders and may have a shared underlying genomic etiology that involves opposite changes in the dosage of the same specific genes.

    That corresponds nicely to a liability threshold model as well.

    Figure 4 is an interesting look at the wide distribution of the different Olduvai (DUF1220) subtypes across Chromosome 1.

    Note the connection to this idea which I have mentioned before: https://www.amazon.com/Madness-Adam-Eve-Schizophrenia-Humanity/dp/055299930X
    The Sikela paper has a good history of this idea back to Crow in 1995.

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    • Replies: @Dieter Kief

    Genomic trade-offs: are autism and schizophrenia the steep price of the human brain?
     
    What does this show? Does this imply that regression to the mean could be understood as being functional - a defence mechanism against schizophrenia and autism?
    Could the low reproduction rates of autists and schizophrenics be understodd in (roughly) the same way?
    , @pyrrhus
    Great comment, and sounds like a great book! Thanks for bringing it to our attention, Dr. Thompson! I'll buy a copy for myself and my kids...
    On the policy end, however, I think there will be problems...With anything resembling eugenics being ruled out by the ruling classes, it's tough to see what third world countries can do, because their main problems in this area are dysgenic breeding patterns and major amounts of Brain Drain with respect to their smartest people....With respect to the West, the failure of more intelligent women to have adequate numbers of children, and perhaps other factors, has resulted in steadily declining average IQs, about 1 point per generation according to recent estimates. (I think it's higher than that.)
    Given that mass education has clearly had no effect on these trends, I wonder what the author recommends?
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  • Michael Woodley of Menie spends much of his time tending his ancestral estate, pacing the linen-fold panelled rooms of the ancient house, warming his hands at the towering stone fireplace and meditating on the collapse of the aristocracy, the paucity of contemporary innovation and the lamentable and persistent downward drift of the national intellect. Now...
  • @Emil O. W. Kirkegaard
    Nyborg's estimate is way too pessimistic. His model is assuming that their fertility rates do not change once they reach Denmark, but they do. The second generation has very similar fertility to the natives.

    No, Nyborg is way too optimistic, given what has happend in the last 3-4 years. You’re too short for this ride.

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  • Is honesty the best policy? In fact, in situations where people believe they will not be caught, it appears that honesty is considered a costly strategy. Many find that cheating pays, and judicious cheating seems sensible, particularly when it is enough to obtain advantage, without it being too obvious. Crafty. Do the citizens of some...
  • Are you aware that cooperation is provably always rational? Of course, as per all ethics, there’s the tension between short-term gain and long-term gain. Cooperation is only rational if you consider the longest term and widest scope, which naturally requires a great IQ. E.g. no matter how difficult it may seem to catch the liar, it is never impossible. And there’s the dumb counterparty problem; if they don’t know they should cooperate, then it may not be possible to cooperate with them, regardless of how wise it would be.

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  • By now you will know that I have often been sceptical about the view that we are becoming less intelligent. Estimating these matters is problematical. For example, can we judge where Stephen Hawkings will stand in the canon of theoretical physicists? I think it would be premature to judge, particularly when at the moment we...
  • @Anonymous
    "In your next comment leave the logical fallacies out of it."

    There are no fallacies in my response. You're one of these idiots who thinks all insults are ad hominems.

    Since your post contains no serious effort to rebut anything I said, but instead offers mere assertions, I'll be similarly lazy in replying.

    "Race is a biological reality."

    Yet you appear to want to deny nearly all the significant factors with respect to which races differ.

    "No and you’re wrong."

    How compelling.

    "Source?"

    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797613493292.

    Somehow you provide no sources in your fatuous reply, but demand that others give sources.

    "Based on?"

    The overwhelming majority of studies that have looked into this matter. If you aren't aware of those, you have no business discussing this subject.

    "Do the interventions change social class?"

    Is social class some magic source of cognitive disablement or advantage that necessarily depresses or raises IQ? Does SES give rise to IQ differences or is it the other way around, and to what degree? The relationship between SES and IQ has been studied countless times. SES obviously cannot explain all variation in IQ because there is enormous variation in IQ within SES categories. Some interventions that have been tried relieve the disadvantages associated with low SES that have been alleged to lower IQ. They still don't work. https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/2005hereditarian-hypothesis.pdf. A major prediction of your environmentalist nonsense fails, and you can't explain why.

    "Irrelevant."

    You think this because you're dumb.

    "Based on assumptions and a computer model. And the twin studies the model used are flawed as well."

    What scientific work doesn't assume certain things? Take a philosophy of science 101 course and get back to me. You're an idiot to think you can dismiss a study simply because it uses a "computer model." Twin studies are sound. If you'd read any recent handbook on behavior genetics you'd be aware that all the halfwit objections from Richardson-types have been answered. In most cases they overestimate the significance of certain assumptions on which twin studies depend, such as the equal environments assumption, which even if false barely makes any difference: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267158254_Demonstrating_the_validity_of_twin_research_in_criminology https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24267761.

    "P-FIT is a flawed theory. How do you know the differences in brain area don’t come down to experience? You don’t."

    Even if they come down to experience, IQ tests remain valid. But that is a ridiculous notion because brain development patterns align with the behavior genetic findings. As the simpleton you are, you're oblivious to how ludicrous it is to treat this all as a coincidence.

    IQ differences themselves can be completely environmentally based and IQ tests can still be valid. The fact that you don't realize this shows, again, that you're a moron. P-FIT is certainly in better scientific standing than the IQ-denialist bullshit coming out of your mouth. You're one of these tards who tries to pick holes in theories you don't like while remaining completely unaware of the absurdity of the alternative you prefer.

    "Does this hold for humans, too?"

    I guess you didn't read my post very clearly.

    "Forgone conclusion due to test construction. You can believe these tests ‘predict’ this but you’d be in error."

    This idiot "circularity" objection to IQ test construction is just laughable. Any valid test has to tap the same factors as the activities it's meant to predict performance in. This will lead to some similarity between the tests and those activities. This is not unique to IQ tests. However IQ tests are predictive of many things they seem to have nothing to do with at first glance. Performance on untimed IQ tests correlates with reaction times, for example. This can be satisfactorily explained only by invoking neurological phenotypes.

    "What is a just-so story?"

    An inadequately supported scientific explanation used to arrive at a conclusion one desires. Since you used the term yourself I would've hoped you already knew that.

    "Still waiting for evidence for construct validity."

    http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-11948-008. Not that it matters. You have enough Marxist garbage in your head that there is no amount of evidence you'll fail to explain away with fallacious babble.

    Thanks for that. In particular, thanks for your reference https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267158254_Demonstrating_the_validity_of_twin_research_in_criminology
    Even better, it has supplementary materials available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9125.12049

    Appendix A. Discussion of Additional Assumptions of Twin‐Based Research

    Appendix B. Mathematical Foundations of Behavioral Genetics

    Appendix C. Latent Variable ACE Model

    Appendix D. Comprehensive List of Studies Examining the Equal Environments Assumption

    Appendix E. R Script for Carrying Out Calculations of Assumption Violations

    I greatly appreciate having quantitative estimates of the errors corresponding to different sized violations of the model assumptions. I also enjoyed their use of the same George Box quote I mentioned in this comment http://www.unz.com/jthompson/more-genes-for-intelligence-a-pattern-emerges/#comment-2282190

    Since your final reference http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-11948-008 is behind a paywall, here are some relevant quotes.

    In Figure 1, latent constructs are represented in the upper left and measures of them are in the upper right. The difference between a construct and its measure is muddied when the terms IQ (a test score) and intelligence (a construct) are used interchangeably, as they commonly are. Test format and content need not mirror what we imagine the unobservable trait or causal force to “look like.” That is why neither item content nor test format provides evidence for or against a test’s validity for measuring the intended latent construct. As noted, test items need only activate the ability under controlled circumstances. Establishing construct validity requires evidence that the behaviour elicited by the test is consistent with propositions about the construct supposedly activated.

    We describe two once-plausible alternatives, disproved by the research just reviewed, that are still oft-invoked by testing’s detractors (Gottfredson, 2009). We then turn to how construct-related research has increased our ability not just to rule out such alternatives, but also to evaluate, compare, and improve the construct validity of particular ability tests.
    The once-plausible hypothesis conflates ability and achievement, and the second collapses the distinction between construct and measure. Both reflect the behaviourism of earlier eras in psychology, which eschewed anything not directly observable. The false ability-equals-achievement hypothesis may be paraphrased as follows: Tests of ability (upper right quadrant of Figure 1) actually gauge what an individual already knows or has accomplished in particular content domains (see lower half of Figure 1), not their standing on some hypothesised inner property or a latent construct (i.e., aptness in acquiring the necessary knowledge and skills; see upper left quadrant of Figure 1). …

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  • If we are to have any chance of moving forward we must actively encourage full spectrum participation and thus suppress the unwarranted advantages provided by family wealth. How can we profess to intelligence if we accept legacy admissions and effectively block all intellectual mobility?
    The great majority of our elites are excessively inbred and useless.

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  • Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @RaceRealist88
    "I must wonder why you identify as a race realist."

    Race is a biological reality.

    "I suppose the misnomer is consistent with the broader pattern of staggering idiocy apparent in your online activity."

    No and you're wrong.

    "If you doubt the validity of IQ tests, you should doubt the validity of every psychometric construct, since none is more predictively valid than IQ."

    I doubt the validity of any test that's not construct valid.

    "What you fail to understand is that one’s potential to learn and retain skills and knowledge is itself a function of an ability that is almost entirely under genetic control."

    Source?

    "The high heritability of IQ"

    Based on?

    "If your environment-only nonsense were true, that probably wouldn’t be the case."

    Do the interventions change social class?

    "You seem to rely heavily on the work of the charlatan Ken Richardson, a Marxist hack in a long tradition of lying, politically motivated critics of intelligence testing, most prominently including Gould, Lewontin, Kamin, and Rose. Ironically enough you accuse another commenter above of indulging in just-so storytelling, and yet are too dense to realize that Richardson’s whole corpus is a set of ridiculous just-so stories used to wriggle out of the obvious predictive validity of IQ at the individual, regional, state, and national levels."

    Irrelevant.

    "Findings from behavior genetic studies of the heritability of IQ are consistent with data on brain development over the life course, giving evidence that IQ tests do measure heritable factors related to the brain"

    Based on assumptions and a computer model. And the twin studies the model used are flawed as well.

    "IQ can be predicted from a number of brain properties"

    P-FIT is a flawed theory. How do you know the differences in brain area don't come down to experience? You don't.

    "Undeniable interspecies differences in intelligence correlate in the expected way with similar brain properties, including “the number of cortical neurons, neuron packing density, interneuronal distance and axonal conduction velocity”"

    Does this hold for humans, too?

    "The correlations, even when controlling for many potential confounders, between IQ and numerous important outcomes, such as health, income, national wealth, national innovation rate, national numbers of Nobel laureates, etc., are well established and not worth repeating"

    Forgone conclusion due to test construction. You can believe these tests 'predict' this but you'd be in error.

    "I’m sure that demented cretin Richardson could cook up some just-so story to make it all disappear!"

    What is a just-so story?

    Still waiting for evidence for construct validity.

    In your next comment leave the logical fallacies out of it. I won't respond to them.

    “In your next comment leave the logical fallacies out of it.”

    There are no fallacies in my response. You’re one of these idiots who thinks all insults are ad hominems.

    Since your post contains no serious effort to rebut anything I said, but instead offers mere assertions, I’ll be similarly lazy in replying.

    “Race is a biological reality.”

    Yet you appear to want to deny nearly all the significant factors with respect to which races differ.

    “No and you’re wrong.”

    How compelling.

    “Source?”

    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797613493292.

    Somehow you provide no sources in your fatuous reply, but demand that others give sources.

    “Based on?”

    The overwhelming majority of studies that have looked into this matter. If you aren’t aware of those, you have no business discussing this subject.

    “Do the interventions change social class?”

    Is social class some magic source of cognitive disablement or advantage that necessarily depresses or raises IQ? Does SES give rise to IQ differences or is it the other way around, and to what degree? The relationship between SES and IQ has been studied countless times. SES obviously cannot explain all variation in IQ because there is enormous variation in IQ within SES categories. Some interventions that have been tried relieve the disadvantages associated with low SES that have been alleged to lower IQ. They still don’t work. https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/2005hereditarian-hypothesis.pdf. A major prediction of your environmentalist nonsense fails, and you can’t explain why.

    “Irrelevant.”

    You think this because you’re dumb.

    “Based on assumptions and a computer model. And the twin studies the model used are flawed as well.”

    What scientific work doesn’t assume certain things? Take a philosophy of science 101 course and get back to me. You’re an idiot to think you can dismiss a study simply because it uses a “computer model.” Twin studies are sound. If you’d read any recent handbook on behavior genetics you’d be aware that all the halfwit objections from Richardson-types have been answered. In most cases they overestimate the significance of certain assumptions on which twin studies depend, such as the equal environments assumption, which even if false barely makes any difference: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267158254_Demonstrating_the_validity_of_twin_research_in_criminology https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24267761.

    “P-FIT is a flawed theory. How do you know the differences in brain area don’t come down to experience? You don’t.”

    Even if they come down to experience, IQ tests remain valid. But that is a ridiculous notion because brain development patterns align with the behavior genetic findings. As the simpleton you are, you’re oblivious to how ludicrous it is to treat this all as a coincidence.

    IQ differences themselves can be completely environmentally based and IQ tests can still be valid. The fact that you don’t realize this shows, again, that you’re a moron. P-FIT is certainly in better scientific standing than the IQ-denialist bullshit coming out of your mouth. You’re one of these tards who tries to pick holes in theories you don’t like while remaining completely unaware of the absurdity of the alternative you prefer.

    “Does this hold for humans, too?”

    I guess you didn’t read my post very clearly.

    “Forgone conclusion due to test construction. You can believe these tests ‘predict’ this but you’d be in error.”

    This idiot “circularity” objection to IQ test construction is just laughable. Any valid test has to tap the same factors as the activities it’s meant to predict performance in. This will lead to some similarity between the tests and those activities. This is not unique to IQ tests. However IQ tests are predictive of many things they seem to have nothing to do with at first glance. Performance on untimed IQ tests correlates with reaction times, for example. This can be satisfactorily explained only by invoking neurological phenotypes.

    “What is a just-so story?”

    An inadequately supported scientific explanation used to arrive at a conclusion one desires. Since you used the term yourself I would’ve hoped you already knew that.

    “Still waiting for evidence for construct validity.”

    http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-11948-008. Not that it matters. You have enough Marxist garbage in your head that there is no amount of evidence you’ll fail to explain away with fallacious babble.

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    • Replies: @res
    Thanks for that. In particular, thanks for your reference https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267158254_Demonstrating_the_validity_of_twin_research_in_criminology
    Even better, it has supplementary materials available at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9125.12049

    Appendix A. Discussion of Additional Assumptions of Twin‐Based Research

    Appendix B. Mathematical Foundations of Behavioral Genetics

    Appendix C. Latent Variable ACE Model

    Appendix D. Comprehensive List of Studies Examining the Equal Environments Assumption

    Appendix E. R Script for Carrying Out Calculations of Assumption Violations
     

    I greatly appreciate having quantitative estimates of the errors corresponding to different sized violations of the model assumptions. I also enjoyed their use of the same George Box quote I mentioned in this comment http://www.unz.com/jthompson/more-genes-for-intelligence-a-pattern-emerges/#comment-2282190

    Since your final reference http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-11948-008 is behind a paywall, here are some relevant quotes.


    In Figure 1, latent constructs are represented in the upper left and measures of them are in the upper right. The difference between a construct and its measure is muddied when the terms IQ (a test score) and intelligence (a construct) are used interchangeably, as they commonly are. Test format and content need not mirror what we imagine the unobservable trait or causal force to “look like.” That is why neither item content nor test format provides evidence for or against a test’s validity for measuring the intended latent construct. As noted, test items need only activate the ability under controlled circumstances. Establishing construct validity requires evidence that the behaviour elicited by the test is consistent with propositions about the construct supposedly activated.
     

    We describe two once-plausible alternatives, disproved by the research just reviewed, that are still oft-invoked by testing’s detractors (Gottfredson, 2009). We then turn to how construct-related research has increased our ability not just to rule out such alternatives, but also to evaluate, compare, and improve the construct validity of particular ability tests.
    The once-plausible hypothesis conflates ability and achievement, and the second collapses the distinction between construct and measure. Both reflect the behaviourism of earlier eras in psychology, which eschewed anything not directly observable. The false ability-equals-achievement hypothesis may be paraphrased as follows: Tests of ability (upper right quadrant of Figure 1) actually gauge what an individual already knows or has accomplished in particular content domains (see lower half of Figure 1), not their standing on some hypothesised inner property or a latent construct (i.e., aptness in acquiring the necessary knowledge and skills; see upper left quadrant of Figure 1). ...
     
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • “I must wonder why you identify as a race realist.”

    Race is a biological reality.

    “I suppose the misnomer is consistent with the broader pattern of staggering idiocy apparent in your online activity.”

    No and you’re wrong.

    “If you doubt the validity of IQ tests, you should doubt the validity of every psychometric construct, since none is more predictively valid than IQ.”

    I doubt the validity of any test that’s not construct valid.

    “What you fail to understand is that one’s potential to learn and retain skills and knowledge is itself a function of an ability that is almost entirely under genetic control.”

    Source?

    “The high heritability of IQ”

    Based on?

    “If your environment-only nonsense were true, that probably wouldn’t be the case.”

    Do the interventions change social class?

    “You seem to rely heavily on the work of the charlatan Ken Richardson, a Marxist hack in a long tradition of lying, politically motivated critics of intelligence testing, most prominently including Gould, Lewontin, Kamin, and Rose. Ironically enough you accuse another commenter above of indulging in just-so storytelling, and yet are too dense to realize that Richardson’s whole corpus is a set of ridiculous just-so stories used to wriggle out of the obvious predictive validity of IQ at the individual, regional, state, and national levels.”

    Irrelevant.

    “Findings from behavior genetic studies of the heritability of IQ are consistent with data on brain development over the life course, giving evidence that IQ tests do measure heritable factors related to the brain”

    Based on assumptions and a computer model. And the twin studies the model used are flawed as well.

    “IQ can be predicted from a number of brain properties”

    P-FIT is a flawed theory. How do you know the differences in brain area don’t come down to experience? You don’t.

    “Undeniable interspecies differences in intelligence correlate in the expected way with similar brain properties, including “the number of cortical neurons, neuron packing density, interneuronal distance and axonal conduction velocity””

    Does this hold for humans, too?

    “The correlations, even when controlling for many potential confounders, between IQ and numerous important outcomes, such as health, income, national wealth, national innovation rate, national numbers of Nobel laureates, etc., are well established and not worth repeating”

    Forgone conclusion due to test construction. You can believe these tests ‘predict’ this but you’d be in error.

    “I’m sure that demented cretin Richardson could cook up some just-so story to make it all disappear!”

    What is a just-so story?

    Still waiting for evidence for construct validity.

    In your next comment leave the logical fallacies out of it. I won’t respond to them.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "In your next comment leave the logical fallacies out of it."

    There are no fallacies in my response. You're one of these idiots who thinks all insults are ad hominems.

    Since your post contains no serious effort to rebut anything I said, but instead offers mere assertions, I'll be similarly lazy in replying.

    "Race is a biological reality."

    Yet you appear to want to deny nearly all the significant factors with respect to which races differ.

    "No and you’re wrong."

    How compelling.

    "Source?"

    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797613493292.

    Somehow you provide no sources in your fatuous reply, but demand that others give sources.

    "Based on?"

    The overwhelming majority of studies that have looked into this matter. If you aren't aware of those, you have no business discussing this subject.

    "Do the interventions change social class?"

    Is social class some magic source of cognitive disablement or advantage that necessarily depresses or raises IQ? Does SES give rise to IQ differences or is it the other way around, and to what degree? The relationship between SES and IQ has been studied countless times. SES obviously cannot explain all variation in IQ because there is enormous variation in IQ within SES categories. Some interventions that have been tried relieve the disadvantages associated with low SES that have been alleged to lower IQ. They still don't work. https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/2005hereditarian-hypothesis.pdf. A major prediction of your environmentalist nonsense fails, and you can't explain why.

    "Irrelevant."

    You think this because you're dumb.

    "Based on assumptions and a computer model. And the twin studies the model used are flawed as well."

    What scientific work doesn't assume certain things? Take a philosophy of science 101 course and get back to me. You're an idiot to think you can dismiss a study simply because it uses a "computer model." Twin studies are sound. If you'd read any recent handbook on behavior genetics you'd be aware that all the halfwit objections from Richardson-types have been answered. In most cases they overestimate the significance of certain assumptions on which twin studies depend, such as the equal environments assumption, which even if false barely makes any difference: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267158254_Demonstrating_the_validity_of_twin_research_in_criminology https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24267761.

    "P-FIT is a flawed theory. How do you know the differences in brain area don’t come down to experience? You don’t."

    Even if they come down to experience, IQ tests remain valid. But that is a ridiculous notion because brain development patterns align with the behavior genetic findings. As the simpleton you are, you're oblivious to how ludicrous it is to treat this all as a coincidence.

    IQ differences themselves can be completely environmentally based and IQ tests can still be valid. The fact that you don't realize this shows, again, that you're a moron. P-FIT is certainly in better scientific standing than the IQ-denialist bullshit coming out of your mouth. You're one of these tards who tries to pick holes in theories you don't like while remaining completely unaware of the absurdity of the alternative you prefer.

    "Does this hold for humans, too?"

    I guess you didn't read my post very clearly.

    "Forgone conclusion due to test construction. You can believe these tests ‘predict’ this but you’d be in error."

    This idiot "circularity" objection to IQ test construction is just laughable. Any valid test has to tap the same factors as the activities it's meant to predict performance in. This will lead to some similarity between the tests and those activities. This is not unique to IQ tests. However IQ tests are predictive of many things they seem to have nothing to do with at first glance. Performance on untimed IQ tests correlates with reaction times, for example. This can be satisfactorily explained only by invoking neurological phenotypes.

    "What is a just-so story?"

    An inadequately supported scientific explanation used to arrive at a conclusion one desires. Since you used the term yourself I would've hoped you already knew that.

    "Still waiting for evidence for construct validity."

    http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-11948-008. Not that it matters. You have enough Marxist garbage in your head that there is no amount of evidence you'll fail to explain away with fallacious babble.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • Is honesty the best policy? In fact, in situations where people believe they will not be caught, it appears that honesty is considered a costly strategy. Many find that cheating pays, and judicious cheating seems sensible, particularly when it is enough to obtain advantage, without it being too obvious. Crafty. Do the citizens of some...
  • Smart liars tell cleverer and therefore more believable lies.

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  • By now you will know that I have often been sceptical about the view that we are becoming less intelligent. Estimating these matters is problematical. For example, can we judge where Stephen Hawkings will stand in the canon of theoretical physicists? I think it would be premature to judge, particularly when at the moment we...
  • Anonymous[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @RaceRealist88
    Mechanistically relate differences in one variable to the other, like breath alcohol and level of alcohol consumption. This is valid because it relies on a well accepted theory, and no such theory exists for 'intelligence/IQ'.

    This is the definition I use. That's what construct validity is.

    I must wonder why you identify as a race realist. I suppose the misnomer is consistent with the broader pattern of staggering idiocy apparent in your online activity.

    If you doubt the validity of IQ tests, you should doubt the validity of every psychometric construct, since none is more predictively valid than IQ.

    “how do you know they test intelligence and not learned skills and knowledge?”

    IQ tests do in part measure “learned skills and knowledge.” That you have read and written as much on this subject as you apparently have but still don’t know this is further testament to your profound lack of intelligence. What you fail to understand is that one’s potential to learn and retain skills and knowledge is itself a function of an ability that is almost entirely under genetic control. The high heritability of IQ explains why, despite great efforts made in a decades-long search, there are no known reliable means by which to lastingly raise an individual’s IQ relative to his peers, assuming he hasn’t been starved half to death or something like that: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028961500135X. If your environment-only nonsense were true, that probably wouldn’t be the case.

    You seem to rely heavily on the work of the charlatan Ken Richardson, a Marxist hack in a long tradition of lying, politically motivated critics of intelligence testing, most prominently including Gould, Lewontin, Kamin, and Rose. Ironically enough you accuse another commenter above of indulging in just-so storytelling, and yet are too dense to realize that Richardson’s whole corpus is a set of ridiculous just-so stories used to wriggle out of the obvious predictive validity of IQ at the individual, regional, state, and national levels.

    Some information concerning the validity of IQ tests. Findings from behavior genetic studies of the heritability of IQ are consistent with data on brain development over the life course, giving evidence that IQ tests do measure heritable factors related to the brain: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878929315301043#fig0005. IQ can be predicted from a number of brain properties: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3181994/. Undeniable interspecies differences in intelligence correlate in the expected way with similar brain properties, including “the number of cortical neurons, neuron packing density, interneuronal distance and axonal conduction velocity” http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1685/20150180. The correlations, even when controlling for many potential confounders, between IQ and numerous important outcomes, such as health, income, national wealth, national innovation rate, national numbers of Nobel laureates, etc., are well established and not worth repeating. Are you enough of a dullard to think this is all one big coincidence? I’m sure that demented cretin Richardson could cook up some just-so story to make it all disappear!

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  • @RaceRealist88
    Gottfredson provides no evidence that IQ tests are construct valid. Why are you tired of it? It should be one of the most important things to discuss regarding IQ. If the tests aren't construct valid then how do you know it tests 'intelligence', even 'a bit'?

    Mechanistically relate differences in one variable to the other, like breath alcohol and level of alcohol consumption. This is valid because it relies on a well accepted theory, and no such theory exists for ‘intelligence/IQ’.

    This is the definition I use. That’s what construct validity is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I must wonder why you identify as a race realist. I suppose the misnomer is consistent with the broader pattern of staggering idiocy apparent in your online activity.

    If you doubt the validity of IQ tests, you should doubt the validity of every psychometric construct, since none is more predictively valid than IQ.

    "how do you know they test intelligence and not learned skills and knowledge?"

    IQ tests do in part measure "learned skills and knowledge." That you have read and written as much on this subject as you apparently have but still don't know this is further testament to your profound lack of intelligence. What you fail to understand is that one's potential to learn and retain skills and knowledge is itself a function of an ability that is almost entirely under genetic control. The high heritability of IQ explains why, despite great efforts made in a decades-long search, there are no known reliable means by which to lastingly raise an individual's IQ relative to his peers, assuming he hasn't been starved half to death or something like that: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028961500135X. If your environment-only nonsense were true, that probably wouldn't be the case.

    You seem to rely heavily on the work of the charlatan Ken Richardson, a Marxist hack in a long tradition of lying, politically motivated critics of intelligence testing, most prominently including Gould, Lewontin, Kamin, and Rose. Ironically enough you accuse another commenter above of indulging in just-so storytelling, and yet are too dense to realize that Richardson's whole corpus is a set of ridiculous just-so stories used to wriggle out of the obvious predictive validity of IQ at the individual, regional, state, and national levels.

    Some information concerning the validity of IQ tests. Findings from behavior genetic studies of the heritability of IQ are consistent with data on brain development over the life course, giving evidence that IQ tests do measure heritable factors related to the brain: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878929315301043#fig0005. IQ can be predicted from a number of brain properties: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3181994/. Undeniable interspecies differences in intelligence correlate in the expected way with similar brain properties, including "the number of cortical neurons, neuron packing density, interneuronal distance and axonal conduction velocity" http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/1685/20150180. The correlations, even when controlling for many potential confounders, between IQ and numerous important outcomes, such as health, income, national wealth, national innovation rate, national numbers of Nobel laureates, etc., are well established and not worth repeating. Are you enough of a dullard to think this is all one big coincidence? I'm sure that demented cretin Richardson could cook up some just-so story to make it all disappear!

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @res
    She does, but it was unsatisfying in small quote form. Easy enough to search for it in the document. I suspect she uses a different definition of "construct validity" than you do and I am tired of those arguments.

    Gottfredson provides no evidence that IQ tests are construct valid. Why are you tired of it? It should be one of the most important things to discuss regarding IQ. If the tests aren’t construct valid then how do you know it tests ‘intelligence’, even ‘a bit’?

    Read More
    • Replies: @RaceRealist88
    Mechanistically relate differences in one variable to the other, like breath alcohol and level of alcohol consumption. This is valid because it relies on a well accepted theory, and no such theory exists for 'intelligence/IQ'.

    This is the definition I use. That's what construct validity is.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @RaceRealist88
    I need to reread that to refresh my memory. I'll do so by this weekend. Does she bring up construct validity? If so, quote?

    She does, but it was unsatisfying in small quote form. Easy enough to search for it in the document. I suspect she uses a different definition of “construct validity” than you do and I am tired of those arguments.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RaceRealist88
    Gottfredson provides no evidence that IQ tests are construct valid. Why are you tired of it? It should be one of the most important things to discuss regarding IQ. If the tests aren't construct valid then how do you know it tests 'intelligence', even 'a bit'?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @res
    This might be useful: Logical Fallacies Used to Dismiss the Evidence on Intelligence Testing
    http://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/2008logical-fallacies.doc

    I need to reread that to refresh my memory. I’ll do so by this weekend. Does she bring up construct validity? If so, quote?

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    • Replies: @res
    She does, but it was unsatisfying in small quote form. Easy enough to search for it in the document. I suspect she uses a different definition of "construct validity" than you do and I am tired of those arguments.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @RaceRealist88
    Are IQ tests construct valid? If so, evidence? If not, how do you know they test intelligence and not learned skills and knowledge?

    This might be useful: Logical Fallacies Used to Dismiss the Evidence on Intelligence Testing

    http://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/reprints/2008logical-fallacies.doc

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    • Replies: @RaceRealist88
    I need to reread that to refresh my memory. I'll do so by this weekend. Does she bring up construct validity? If so, quote?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • @Kratoklastes
    This should not be a surprise.

    In the mid-20th century, across most of the West, governments implemented policies to attempt to prevent one of the natural consequences of increased prosperity - a consequence that works against the desire of the political class to expand the size of the herd that furnishes their source of income and wealth.

    The consequence of prosperity that they are/were concerned about is a reduction in fertility rates. That's not because women become less fertile as societies become wealthier; it's because they have far better things to do with their time than spend their adult lives pregnant or nursing.

    This empirical regularity has been understood for a century - it was, after all, part of the dysgenic's analytical framework as far back as the late 19th century: the dummies reproduce in larger numbers, from a larger base, than the smarties... and so will eventually dumb-down the population by force of numbers.

    The early-to-mid 20th century saw the near-elimination of infant mortality - from 1-in-5 births in the West (and 1-in-4 in the 'poor' West) at the turn of the 20th century, to 0.2-in-100 by the end of the century. (Note: this is unambiguously a good thing - unlike the US Death machine, I don't thrive on the production of dead babies).

    What didn't happen thereafter, was a change in reproductive strategies in the bottom 50% of the income distribution; those folks kept reproducing, and the drop in infant mortality caused them to go from breeding at slightly-above-replacement, to breeding at rates several times that of the top 50% (whose strategies changed in such a way as to ensure reproduction below-replacement).

    Meanwhile, the demographic that provides 100% of the cognitive 'grunt' of society - the top 5-10% of the IQ distribution) was breeding well-below-replacement.

    This is why we started to see behaviours previously indicative of the 'submerged tenth', all the way up to the first quartile (and later, above).

    In the 1960s, women in the bottom half started to control their reproduction more assiduously (with the birth control pill) and population growth in the West stalled. (Note: by 'population growth' here, I mean 'natural increase' - i.e., excluding inward-migration and the first-generation of children born to immigrants, who breed faster than the incumbents).

    So governments were - and are - staring down a 'funding barrel': they had made promises to workers (pensions and aged health-care) to prevent workers from agitating for a 'fairer' share of additional productivity... and if the population is growing more slowly than the stock of living retirees, that scheme goes through zero rapidly. (Yes: government pensions are a Ponzi scheme - unambiguously).

    So what did they do? They incentivised reproduction (the most flagrant example of this is the Australian 'baby bonus', but 'child benefit' and 'child tax credit' and 'family allowance' and other such incentives are the same thing).

    And here's where it gets slightly technical.

    The quantum involved in these subsidies-to-reproduction, were not large enough to induce high-IQ women to devote their scarce time to reproduction. Like all subsidies, they had their greatest impact on people with a high marginal utility of money... i.e., the poor.

    Add to this that the poor (and particularly poor women) are spectacularly bad at estimating the costs of future things (e.g., the cost of raising an infant), and have very high discount rates (e.g., they will take out loans that have 50% and higher interest rates).

    What this meant was that the 'reproductive subsidies' were effectively 'subsidies to Delta-production' (using Huxley's taxonomy) - which reintroduced and amplified the disproportionate growth of the bottom fifth of the IQ distribution (and again, we see things that were previously only observed below the bottom decile, right up to the fourth quartile).

    The political class is indifferent to this outcome, because so far it's been working: the top 5-10% of the IQ distribution continues to generate advances in productivity that are primarily driven by the characteristics of capital goods, with progressively lower cognitive requirements for labour. This has generated enough operating surplus for the political class to continue to build palaces for themselves out of taxation.

    But it now seems that the gains from this strategy are starting to peter out; firstly, once labour becomes almost irrelevant to production, there will be a large underclass who is economically useless and will agitate for, e.g., Universal Basic Income; secondly, those who generate the innovations are getting sick of seeing the benefits of their innovation being transferred to government and its cronies, and are looking for ways to get out of the tax livestock herd.

    Prior to the mid-20th century, the predictable outcome of this would have been a large-scale land war - which would kill off ~6% of the dumb (surplus) males and slow the growth rate of the Deltas. There would be a rapid expansion in per-capita income after the war, and this would make the bottom 80% think that things were better than the status quo antebellum.

    Nowadays large-scale land war is not an option, since the technology of warfare is sufficiently destructive that a WWII-sized operation between peer-rivals would have a very good chance of spiralling into an existential-risk event.

    I'm not overly concerned: before my hundredth birthday (2065), those who want to will be able to virtualise (de-meatbag their personality), slip the surly bonds of Earth and dance through space on laughter-silvered wings. So there's that.

    Yet in the US, since the early 90s, teen pregnancy has been dropping across the board, and it has dropped by more than half in New York since 2009 alone.

    There is an assumption, that because the scores of a given cohort of SAT/et cetera test takers are correlated with the test takers’ IQs, that for a consistent test over time, there will be a consistent algebraic relationship between test scores and time. This assumption is unlikely to be correct, as the tests are culturally loaded, despite being very cognitive.

    There is a dubious binary distinction made between culturally loaded and cognitively loaded. A problem can require both, and require the combination of special knowledge and intelligence. If the likelihood of success on such a problem is a function of the product of knowledge with intellect, then the additive assumption based models will not give insight.

    Are there any studies, of the type that looks at the relationship between IQ and SAT, say, that find a consistent algebraic relationship between IQ and SAT over time? And if so, is the relationship, using individuals from multiple cohorts, homoskedastic?

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  • @Abelard Lindsey
    This sounds like a serious argument to just CRISPR as much of the human race as possible.

    I prefer the bio-engineering route over some kind of "traditionalist" route where we have to give up much of our personal and, perhaps, economic freedom as well.

    Implying there are ‘genes for’ IQ/intelligence (whatever that is), all the while IQ tests aren’t construct valid. Weird…

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  • @nickels
    Genetic decay is across the board.
    This is why the Greeks had such a complex and beautiful language, and such a rich culture of art, architecture and philosophy.
    Today's people are a truly sad lot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFisJo_IZLU

    Just-so stories.

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