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"Cicerone"
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    In late March/early April of this year, I visited Portugal. Now I have finally to come round to writing about it, as I have been promising to. First obvious question: Why Portugal? No reason in particular. Well, apart from it being cheap and convenient - as it happened, I only had to pay for the...
  • Looks like Portugal is really worth visiting.

    Btw, Vinho Verde is also availabe in German Aldi’s. It’s my favorite summer wine.

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  • “Hatched, matched, and dispatched”—my mother’s term for the births, marriages, and deaths columns in our local paper. Let's visit the hatcheries. What's mainly happening in the hatcheries: a slowdown of business. Americans are not making as many babies as we used to: Births plunge to record lows in United States, MSN, May 17, 2018. The...
  • @UrbaneFrancoOntarian
    Cicerone has some fantastic information, but their Twitter feed is too short! Does he post that to a website or something with more graphs ?

    I try to put more stuff on twitter in the future, I promise! ;)

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    • Replies: @manorchurch

    I try to put more stuff on twitter in the future, I promise! ;)
     
    Oh, good, you are such a humanist. We must all emulate your ideals! Let's put everything we can think of on Twitter, and gush effusively. We will save this country yet! We will never run out of new emojis!

    Sardonicisms aside, why does no one see the widespread sickness -- pathological social dysfunction in the sense of what "social" really means -- in millions of no-status individuals devotedly "following" celebrity individuals? It is a form of mass conversion from the American ideal of the ruggedly independent individual, to cotillions of touchy-feely-weepy cuddlers-with-friends.
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  • Via Cicerone, based on data from the CDC for 2016. Audacious Epigone has already written a post to which I have little to add in way of political analysis. You can compare these figures to native European TFR's here.
  • @Bliss
    Noteworthy:

    The most Catholic state in America, Rhode Island, has the lowest white TFR.
    The 3rd most Catholic state, Massachusetts, has the 2nd lowest white TFR.
    The 4th most Catholic state, Connecticut, has the 3rd lowest white TFR.

    The whites there are mostly Irish and Italian.


    http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/r4r55xbrkeslnv7m9qjqtg.png

    New York and New Jersey aren‘t as low as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as their White TFRs are boosted by Ultraorthodox Jews. Otherwise there’s an even stronger relationship with the share of Catholics.

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  • Convenient summary h/t Ivan Vladimirov. Ireland and Iceland look to be in the best shape. While Ireland is one of Europe's most religious countries, Iceland is one of the least ("0% of Icelanders aged 25 or younger believe world was created by God"). Adjusting for fertility non-EU immigrants also substantially smooths - indeed, probably almost...
  • Another interesting observation is that the TFR of immigrants is not only dependent on their countries of origin, but also policies of the state. Just take Sweden and France. Both of them have huge stocks of Muslims and Blacks and the TFR of native Swedes and French is the same.

    Yet those immigrants in Sweden have one child less than those in France. It seems that the Belgo-French family policy model works especially well in encouraging more underclass/muslim/black births. The Nordic model is more geared towards bringing the highest possible number of women/mothers into jobs.

    Oh yeah, and I should add to that table that the percentages refer to the share of women, not the share of births. Should have made that more clear. I’ll do that when the data for 2016 will be ready. :)

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  • While data from various IQ tests are useful for global scale analyses (e.g. GDPcc correlations), they are far less reliable for particular countries. That's why I'm a big fan of the OECD's PISA assessments, which are highly standardized, have large samples from similar age groups, take place concurrently once every three years, test those aspects...
  • Nice analysis! I am a bit puzzled by the low numbers of Italy. They are close to the performance of Southern Italian students (around 94) instead of being closer to but below 100.

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  • Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun...
  • 1. Highly fertile religious minorities: Haredim, Amish, Mormons, etc. But they come with well-known problems, their rate of “defections” into the general population decreases as those of their progeny who find their lifestyle non-congenial “boil off,” and in any case Israel is the only country where they constitute a high enough percentage of the population to have a discernible demographic effect.

    It’s interesting to note that Mormon fertility has dropped a bit in the last years, in line with the rest of the US. The state of Utah is becoming less Mormon over time (due to immigration of Hispanica and other non-Mormons mostly). Salt Lake City itself is said to lose its Mormon majority soon. Utah county, located south of Salt Lake City however is defying the trend and is 88% Mormon. Utah County also serves as the intellectual heart of Mormonism, hosting Brigham Young University.

    Before the crisis, they were solidly at 3 children per woman. In the late 1970s they were even able to mirror the baby boom once more. Now they are hovering around 2.7.

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  • @anonymous coward

    How to activate this cheat code?
     
    You're missing the obvious and easiest solution: make real estate cheap. Guaranteed to raise fertility and costs next to nothing for the state.

    (Of course that would ruin "muh GDP", so we're never going to get replacement fertility. Committing racial suicide because you wanted a high score on a meaningless rating must be the stupidest ethnic cleansing in human history.)

    The problem is the lure of the big cities. Big cities are where the fancy stuff is and the high paying jobs (especially so for university graduates!), so people strive to live in them, which automatically increases real estate prices there. Real estate in rural areas in most of the West is dirt cheap, but people don’t even breed there as needed.

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  • Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the...
  • @CanSpeccy

    I disagree, and for the simple reason that this extremely low fertility has spread with ease to several non-European societies
     
    Would you like to add some logic to your bland assertion of disagreement?

    Specifically, in what way does a demographic collapse in "the Western part" of Turkey (which nation has an overall fertility rate of 2.05, i.e., essentially the replacement rate) disprove that Western elites are either stupid beyond belief or guilty of genocidal policies against their own people?

    Well, when you have in Western Turkey the same TFR as American Whites have (around 1.7-1.8) and in the East you have the Kurds with 3.5 children per woman, you get it. The Kurds may be not as distinct culturally to the Turks as the immigrants in the West are to the netives, but saying that non-Western countries are spared of that fate of cultural replacement is wrong.

    Mind you, I am the complete opposite of a supporter of the current mass migration and destruction of the West.

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    • Replies: @CanSpeccy

    Well, when you have in Western Turkey the same TFR as American Whites have (around 1.7-1.8) and in the East you have the Kurds with 3.5 children per woman, you get it.
     
    Same in Europe, except the women having the most children are not themselves, for the most part, native born. Hence in Britain:

    Mothers from Libya had the highest average birth rate of 5.58, closely followed by those from Guinea, with 4.84 and Algeria with 4.32. A spokesman for the Office for National Statistics said that “strong cultural preferences” were likely to be behind the marked variation in birth rates amongst different nationalities. Source
     
    This is genocide with population replacement. And anyone who points that out is a labeled a racist, misogynist, anti-feminist, male chauvinist pig by the treasonous elite. Or is the elite not treasonous but just stupid? Looking at Justin Trudeau, one has to wonder whether the silly bugger hasn't himself swallowed the liberal Kool-Aid.
    , @Medvedev
    The difference: In Turkey their leader, Erdogan, urges women to have more children because Turks have problem with fertility. Apparently, he understands the danger of high-TFR among Kurds to Turkish state.
    On the other hand, you'll be labeled sexist, racist, misogynist pig, xenophobic etc, etc, etc just for pointing out the obvious: dying out/replacement of white population.
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  • @neutral
    And is Turkey or Iran also mass importing foreigners?

    Turkey is. They have more than 3 million Syrians. They are also increasingly having diverse athletes:

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Are you sure those aren't people that are left-overs from when Ottomans used to import slaves. They are called "Afro-Turks", mostly found along the Aegean coast. Here is one of their descendants (Turkish model, Kivanc Dogu - definitely looks mixed):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGYR_4uWVl8:

    More on them:
    http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20160829-turkeys-little-known-africans

    I don't know, maybe those are new comers in that photo you posted, but Turkey already has a history of Black immigrants.

    Peace.

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  • @Jaakko Raipala
    Romanian birth rate graph:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/BirthDeath_1950_RO.svg

    The pro-natalist policy of the late 1960s was an immediate but temporary success. It's not impossible to influence birth rates with policy.

    The Romanian pro-natalist poicy mostly led to a huge number of unwanted births which then ended up in orphanages:

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_orphans

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770

    They probably also had a huge dysgenic effect on the Romanian population. Who is more likely to have more children when you outlaw abortions? The highly educated who are smart enough to contracept, or the lower classes who aren’t?

    No, there are definitely smarter policies than that, policies that actually benefit the smarts.

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  • @CanSpeccy


    No society in all of history has gone extinct, or even ‘run out of workers,’ because people had too few children.
     
    Not true. Native American people did. As did many ethnic groups around China, including the white European ones that used to inhabit Central Asia.
     
    Exactly.

    Many groups have been psyched out by the impact of the modernity, and now the most advanced civilizations are themselves undergoing disintegration as a result of a toxic culture that is little more than a byproduct of the corporate drive for profit maximization.

    As for:


    But this year, it’s as if the floodgates finally opened, and then some.

    This is a disappointing development if it represents a new normal.
     

    There's no reason for the suicide of Russia or the Western nations unless it be the will or the utter stupidity of the ruling elites.

    It would take too much space to explain it all here (one hopes that Ron Unz, in his wisdom, will commission an article one day explaining what has happened), but to anyone who has lived through the Western transition from the days of demographic surplus to the current demographic deficit, it is obvious why the West and Russia are dying, and hence it is pretty clear what kinds of measures are needed t0 restore the fertility of the European peoples.

    That such measures have not already been taken seems conclusive evidence that the European peoples are ruled by treasonous elites engaged in the destruction of their own people, who are being replaced very rapidly by people from elsewhere, Asia and the Middle East now, but increasingly in the future from Africa.

    That such measures have not already been taken seems conclusive evidence that the European peoples are ruled by treasonous elites engaged in the destruction of their own people, who are being replaced very rapidly by people from elsewhere, Asia and the Middle East now, but increasingly in the future from Africa.

    I disagree, and for the simple reason that this extremely low fertility has spread with ease to several non-European societies as well as those European countries most resistant to the multiculti menace. Even in the Middle East you have countries like Iran or the Western part of Turkey having exactly the same problem.

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    • Replies: @neutral
    And is Turkey or Iran also mass importing foreigners?
    , @CanSpeccy

    I disagree, and for the simple reason that this extremely low fertility has spread with ease to several non-European societies
     
    Would you like to add some logic to your bland assertion of disagreement?

    Specifically, in what way does a demographic collapse in "the Western part" of Turkey (which nation has an overall fertility rate of 2.05, i.e., essentially the replacement rate) disprove that Western elites are either stupid beyond belief or guilty of genocidal policies against their own people?
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  • Thank goodness for Russian sleazeballs exploiting our immigration law loopholes: their whiteness allows the mass media to get worked up on the topic instead of still nervously shying away from, say, endemic Chinese birth tourism on the grounds that it might be racist to notice. From NBC: Birth tourism brings Russian baby boom to Miami...
  • Doesn’t seem to be enough to lift Miami-Dade’s birth rate over the American average…

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  • In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb’s idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about 2017. See also predictions and results for 2016. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability...
  • @Swedish Family

    There was a similar significant decrease in Hungary.
     
    I'm sure you're right, but then the original question applies to Hungary too: is the decrease the result of fewer women at peak fertility (because of the low birth rates of the 90s), or is it still present when you adjust for changes in the population pyramid?

    In Hungary, the decline is small enough that it can be entirely explained by the decreasing number of potential mothers (currently declining at 1.2% per year).

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The decrease was 1.2% lower for the first ten months of the year, and considering that last year was longer by one day, the decrease was merely 0.8%. But your explanation is likely wrong in and of itself. The intra-year trends are worrisome. In January the number of births exceeded January 2016 by over 10%. After that, it each month was lower than the corresponding month of the previous year. The worst was October, when births were 6.6% lower than October 2016. In other words, there’s a negative intra-year trend. I hope the last two months will prove to have been better, but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.
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  • From Lazy Glossophiliac's blog on births in New York City, with some stats of relevance to Heather Mac Donald's unpopular theory that gentrification and declining homicides are in a virtuous cycle in New York City. Population statistics in New York City tend to be somewhat sketchy, perhaps because of the rampant subletting and complicated rent...
  • Meanwhile, gentrification is also doing its job to reduce fertility rates of NYC further and further. If the trend continues, it will soon reach the all time low of 1.4 children per woman the Big Apple had in the 1930s:

    From the late 1960s to 1994, the year before Rudy Giuliani tidied up the city, NYCs fertility rate was close to the American average.

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  • Though it is Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan that have dominated the news these past two weeks, this month also saw a flare-up in separatist sentiment in Brazil. This region apparently has a have a fleeting historical experience of independence: They are the the whitest states:
  • @Hupa
    Poorer areas in Poland are more clever than richer areas

    That’s why I think overindebtedness is a better proxy for IQ than richness, at least on the regional level. In Germany you have dumb but rich regions as well (Hamburg e.g.) and at the same time poor and smart regions (Saxony), but nevertheless the richer Hamburgers more often run into debt than the poorer Saxons.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Are Catholics (green on your map) smarter in Germany? Are more Catholic Poles in South-East Poland better at school?

    It is not IQ. Rather family values, tradition religiosity.
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  • @Hupa
    "Clever, high-functioning regions breaking away from stupid, corrupt regions"

    http://polmedia.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/wp-content_2015_06_mapki.jpg -> here is a comparison of several criteria in Poland. Top left is crime, to the right credits in swiss franks, bottom left are divorces, to the right passed matura exams (the one you take at the end of high school, before you enroll at universities)

    Western Poland is richer than Eastern -> http://static1.money.pl/i/h/147/art400787.jpg. Purchasing power parity

    Density of purchasing power parity, whatever the hell it means, in mln Złoty/km^2 -> http://d2xhqqdaxyaju6.cloudfront.net/file/attachment-s/675188/d1/s-376-x.jpg

    Here's the so called "colonization on german law"/Ostsiedlung -> https://content.epodreczniki.pl/content/womi/202512/classic-980.jpg

    Here's "dominicantes" in Poland, so people who go to Sunday mass ->http://mapy.gis-expert.pl/mapy_iskk/01_parafie_domnicantes.jpg. Country-wide it's about 35-40%

    Another way of looking at the divide between the clever/high functioning and other regions is to map the eprcentage of overindebted households. Overindebtedness in a household is more often than not a proxy for cognitive functioning. When you are clever enough, you are usually also clever enough to know how much money you can spend and don’t run into high debts.

    The South-East / North-West divide is evident and will only get stronger, the more Eastern Germany overcomes its communist heritage and converges with the West GDP wise.

    Share of households that are overindebted

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    • Replies: @Hupa
    Poorer areas in Poland are more clever than richer areas
    , @hyperbola
    So those in Mainz are a lot cleverer than those in Wiesbaden (although Wiesbaden certainly would be considered the "economically richer" area) or those in Frankfurt a M.!

    Perhaps your argument is reversed? Those in (at least some) high-debt areas have access to capital and/or social networks that allows them to use debt to speculate on making themselves even more rich.
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  • What the commenter Cicerone wrote in response to the study about dysgenic decline in Germany. The findings come rather surprizing to me and I am always sceptical of using these low N studies to make out trends. Using fertility by education data from the Wittgenstein database, my estimate for the intrinsic IQ loss over the...
  • @A few points
    The findings on Scandinavia+Belgium vs EE are counter-intuitive. We're told that the welfare state accelerates IQ dysgenic trends, namely that poorer and supposedly duller people reproduce even faster whereas in more harsher social environments, where there isn't as easy to have lots of kids, the higher IQ people will have more or at least as many kids.

    Yet what we see is the opposite. Finland has arguably the strongest welfare state in Scandinavia and Belgium is up there together with France on the continent. Yes, Romania has gypsies, but Poland does not. Furthermore, looking at the PISA tests, Poland does quite well. So the population is not the problem. So why are bright Polish people reproducing so much less than less bright Polish people?

    After all, those who are obsessed with the welfare state can't explain this. It reminds me of Iceland. Iceland both has a high abortion rate *and* a high unwed mothers rate. Both of these are supposedly signs of social decay and chaos. Yet I'd venture to say that Iceland is far more tranquil than even most white-supermajority states in the US. Certainly not behind any of them. A lot of these theories on the welfare state - or unwed mothers - are just repackaged cuckservatism which many people in the altright have been unable to shake off and actually think about.

    I guess the biggest myth around is that the welfare state only serves the poor. But that isn’t really the case in Scandinavia. Many of their policies are actually aimed at the middle class. Think of subsidized childcare. Subsidized childcare mostly encourages births in the middle class and among the highly educated, where two parents are working. So a middle class or upper middle class household which might worry whether they could afford a third child in the US with its extremely high childcare costs don’t have to worry about it in Sweden.

    Welfare states also help to break up traditional family arrangements that encourage fertility among the poor and discourages it among the rich. When you can count on the state to support you and you don’t have to rely on your big extended family, you can plan your own life instead of having to follow old conventions, which lowers fertility among the poor. A big reason why gypsies have so many kids is because tehy are still caught in those traditions that expect from girls to marry in their early teens. With a welfare state they could run away from their families more easily and get an education.

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  • Thank’s Anatoly for posting my figures again! :D

    I have to add though, that they are unreliable when it comes to developing countries, as I used education as a proxy for IQ. We all know that in developing countries reaching your potential is harder than it is in developed countries, so education level may be a worse predictor of IQ in developing than in developed countries, especially so in countries like Afghanistan.

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  • Went to the North Korean restaurant in Moscow the other day to fight American imperialism. The food at the Koryo Korean Restaurant was actually rather good - I assume it must have improved considerably since Varlamov's review from 2013. The kimchi was properly fermented, as it ought to be (it has been about a year...
  • * White Births A US Majority Again. (Trump is too late to explain that, but one does wonder to what extent both could be viewed as a recovery of White morale).

    It’s not so much a recovery of White morale, than a ecline of morale among non-Whites in the US, whose birth rates continue to decline quicker than that of the Whites, ironically since Obama assumed presidency in 2008.

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  • Here is a graph of monthly births in Russia since 2006 through to March 2017: It is pointless to make sweeping conclusions based on demographic data from the past one or two months. That said, the three month moving average has been down relative to the same period in the previous year since the middle...
  • @AP
    In a lot of these cases the low rates can in part be explained by large numbers of young people being officially registered as living at home but actually living and working abroad. This is not as true of Russia.

    In addition to what Anatoly and reiner Tor said, in the case of the Baltics tehy actually revised earlier fertility rates upwards after they found out in the census of 2011 that they had fewer people than they initially thought. Inbetween, they have improved a bit on their registration systems and show emigration as it happens. Poland, Romania and Bulagria are the notorious countries having inflated population figures, as even in the census they treat people living abroad as living in the country. According to official Polish statistics, there has been no emigration wave at all in the last two decades, while we all know that at least a million Poles left the country. Consequentially, the officially published TFR of Poland is probably 0.1 children too low.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Thanks. As I had mentioned to AK, I was focused on the low raw numbers, not the difference.
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  • @reiner Tor

    they will have 20,000 children in a typical year, so much less than your estimate of 100,000.
     
    I never estimated that they would give birth to 100,000 children in a typical year. My number was given for one and a half and I assumed that these one and a half years were anything but typical. They just arrived in Canaan. There were almost surely a lot of delayed babies who weren't born in the Turkish refugee camps, but now in Germany there's little reason to delay them further.

    Births to women of Asian citizenship (including the whole continent from Israel to Indonesia), rose from 20,000 to 25,000 between 2012 and 2015.
     
    Does this mean that Asians have a lower fertility rate than Germans proper? 25,000 is just 3.3% of the 740,000 births, whereas the 3 million Turks alone are 3.75% of the total population of 80 million. There must be other Asians, too. Or are they counting Turks as Europeans?

    Migrants indeed show elevated fertility once they arrive, but it is not that high, because there are also adjustments to be made, even when, as a refugee, you simply get your ass coated in sugar.

    Does this mean that Asians have a lower fertility rate than Germans proper? 25,000 is just 3.3% of the 740,000 births, whereas the 3 million Turks alone are 3.75% of the total population of 80 million. There must be other Asians, too. Or are they counting Turks as Europeans?

    Turks are indeed counted as Europeans in that statistic.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Thanks. Possible, we'll see anyway.
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  • Maybe the Russian baby bust of 2017 is not really “Russian”, but rather a phenomenon in the former Soviet Union in general. The Baltic states have reported similar drops for 2017 so far. Here are my estimates for their TFR of 2017 (2016 in brackets, if the sitiation stays during this year)

    Estonia 1.50 (1.59)
    Latvia 1.65 (1.72)
    Lithuania 1.64 (1.69)
    Ukraine 1.44 (1.48)

    Anyone has data on Belarus?

    However, of all developed countries which have reported some birth numbers for 2017, only Poland can expect to have a strong rise, and Hungary+ Japan can expect to stay where they were in 2016. Declines are also seen in the Netherlands, Switzerland, France, Israel, South Korea and Taiwan.

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    • Replies: @AP
    In a lot of these cases the low rates can in part be explained by large numbers of young people being officially registered as living at home but actually living and working abroad. This is not as true of Russia.
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  • @reiner Tor
    1.5 million refugees came. Let's assume just 200,000 of those are women. They are all married and of childbearing age. Germany has perhaps 20 million people of childbearing age, or 10 million women, so the refugees will have been at least 2% of such women, and if you assume that they have exactly the same fertility as Germans, that will translate into a 2% share in childbirth.

    But I bet you most of those women didn't use contraception. Why would they? Even in the absence of birthright citizenship, probably it's more difficult to deport a family with a child born in Germany. Also, welfare payments will only get more generous. A pregnant Syrian woman was praising conditions in Germany, how easier it was to have a family than in Syria.

    I think it's not unlikely that those 200,000 women have given birth to 100,000 babies since arrival, that is, over the past one and a half years. How many children are born in Germany a year?

    You might also ask yourself why the media is putting out stories on how the refugees are causing this baby boom.

    Most people don't think much about demography.

    Unfortunately there is no data for 2016 yet, but if one looks at what drove the boomlet until 2015, it was mostly births to Eastern European migrants who came and still come in droves since the opening up of the free movement area to the east.

    The 200,000 isn’t far off the mark though, as from the 750,000 claims for asylum in 2016, 125,000 were done by women of reproductive age. When we consider that some hundreds of thoudsands of the 1.5 million who came with the recent wave since 2014 already left again (mostly balkans fake refugees, not mideastern rapefugees), 200,000 women look reasonable.

    In Germany there are currently 15 million women of reproductive age, who give birth to around 740,000 babies in 2015, or in other words, 50 births per 1000 women, corresponding to a TFR of 1.5. If we assume that the refugees have a TFR of 3.0 (similar to the level in Syria, but lower than in Iraq and Afghanistan), they will bear 100 births per 1000 women, or in other words, they will have 20,000 children in a typical year, so much less than your estimate of 100,000.

    The statistics so far suggest less than that. Births to women of Asian citizenship (including the whole continent from Israel to Indonesia), rose from 20,000 to 25,000 between 2012 and 2015. More interesting of course will be 2016, but, as I said, there is no data yet.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    they will have 20,000 children in a typical year, so much less than your estimate of 100,000.
     
    I never estimated that they would give birth to 100,000 children in a typical year. My number was given for one and a half and I assumed that these one and a half years were anything but typical. They just arrived in Canaan. There were almost surely a lot of delayed babies who weren't born in the Turkish refugee camps, but now in Germany there's little reason to delay them further.

    Births to women of Asian citizenship (including the whole continent from Israel to Indonesia), rose from 20,000 to 25,000 between 2012 and 2015.
     
    Does this mean that Asians have a lower fertility rate than Germans proper? 25,000 is just 3.3% of the 740,000 births, whereas the 3 million Turks alone are 3.75% of the total population of 80 million. There must be other Asians, too. Or are they counting Turks as Europeans?
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  • The increase in births, although from a low base, is too much to be just explained by (mostly male, hence not influencing the TFR) refugees. Because of changing family policies to a more Scandinavian model of double-earnership and childcare for small children, higher educated Germans are also having more children again.

    The birth rate in Sweden is still declining, which means that the rate for ethnic Swedes is declining even faster.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    1.5 million refugees came. Let's assume just 200,000 of those are women. They are all married and of childbearing age. Germany has perhaps 20 million people of childbearing age, or 10 million women, so the refugees will have been at least 2% of such women, and if you assume that they have exactly the same fertility as Germans, that will translate into a 2% share in childbirth.

    But I bet you most of those women didn't use contraception. Why would they? Even in the absence of birthright citizenship, probably it's more difficult to deport a family with a child born in Germany. Also, welfare payments will only get more generous. A pregnant Syrian woman was praising conditions in Germany, how easier it was to have a family than in Syria.

    I think it's not unlikely that those 200,000 women have given birth to 100,000 babies since arrival, that is, over the past one and a half years. How many children are born in Germany a year?

    You might also ask yourself why the media is putting out stories on how the refugees are causing this baby boom.

    Most people don't think much about demography.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Source for more-educated Germans having more children recently?

    Germans are willing themselves and their culture out of existence. The TFR of Germans, educated or not "educated", is still woefully inadequate and I don't see serious signs of its turning around yet. Do you?
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  • @5371
    Theory may say this, but the historical record disagrees.

    True, there are several examples of very low fertility before the 1960s. You just need to go back to the 1920s and 30s to see cities such as Oslo, Stockholm, Berlin, Geneva or San Francisco that had fertility rates of close to 1.0 children per woman or even below that. Vienna even went as low as 0.7 children per woman in the early 1930s without modern contraceptives or a one-child-policy.

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  • @reiner Tor
    Not good news. I was hoping for at least one white country with at least some semblance of a demographic turnaround...

    There are actually several countries with a turnaround since the late 2000s. A sustained rise in fertility can be seen in Eastern Europe and the German speaking countries. Fertility declined after the crisis in the whole Anglosphere, Scandinavia, Northwestern Europe and Southern Europe.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I read optimistic articles last year how the refugees were bringing a baby boom to both Germany and Sweden. But unlike those journalists, I didn't find it all that encouraging...

    It's obvious that the more cucked Western European nations will be minority white by the end of the century. I'm not quite into those baby booms.
    , @German_reader
    If you're referring to Germany, I don't think that's true, the birthrate among ethnic Germans is still one of the lowest in the world. Media reports to the contrary imo are just intended to create unjustified complacency.
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  • Here is why Russia also needs a BBW (Turkestan edition): Number of births: Red = Russia; Green = Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan). In 1897, there were ten times fewer people in Russian Turkestan than within the modern borders of the Russian Federation. Today, they constitute 50% of the Russian Federation's population. They...
  • @aly
    I know. But in 1990 Russians (well not only Russians but we can add other Slavic and European people) were majority in Kazakhstan i think (at least they were about 50% of population). Also Kazakhstan had only about 15 milion people (half Slavic and German), Russia 148 milion. I just think Kazakhstan, or parts of Kazakhstan could have remained part of Russia.
    Now that train has passed of course.

    The European ethnicities’ share of the population however already peaked in 1959. After 1959, the migration of Europeans wasn’t enough anymore to offset the natural growth of the Kazakhs. From 1959, the share of Europeans in Kazakhstan declined from 60% to 50% in 1989 despite continuous immigration, while the Kazakhs grew their share from 30% to 40%.

    The Russians of course could have kept the very northern stripe of Kazakhstan, but even then there is the risk that it might have turned majority Kazakh in the future, with accompanying political ramifications.

    In general it is very dangerous to try to cling on territories when you as a people have already crossed your demographic peak of settler potential.

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    • Replies: @aly
    True, true, I agree. Maybe it's better this way.
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  • @aly
    I don't understand why Russia let Kazakhstan become independent state in '90 when about half of population of that soviet republic were Russians (plus Ukrainians, Belorusians, Germans).
    It's large territory and they just let it go all.
    But now let's hope central Asian migrants will go there insted in Russia.

    The Kazakhs have been and still are outbreeding the Russians by a huge margin.

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    • Replies: @aly
    I know. But in 1990 Russians (well not only Russians but we can add other Slavic and European people) were majority in Kazakhstan i think (at least they were about 50% of population). Also Kazakhstan had only about 15 milion people (half Slavic and German), Russia 148 milion. I just think Kazakhstan, or parts of Kazakhstan could have remained part of Russia.
    Now that train has passed of course.
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  • Here is why the US needs a Big Beautiful Wall in one graph: Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua are the top four source countries of illegal immigrants to the US. The American White percentage of the population has been dropping relentlessly for more than half a century, in large part due to immigration itself....
  • @Hector_St_Clare
    Anatoly,

    Here's why the birth rate graphs are misleading. (And why I really am more interested in TFR than in birth rates anyway).

    US white TFR is more or less holding steady at 1.7-1.8 or so. The TFR for nonwhite Americans as well as for Latin America is continuing to decline however. (Mexico is a bit above replacement right now, El Salvador and Nicaragua are already slightly below it: within the United States, Puerto Ricans and Native Americans already have TFRs below the white rate). The birth rates are currently mostly level for white Americans, Latino Americans, and Mexicans/Central Americans, as your graph shows, but that's because the younger age structure in the latter two groups offsets the declining fertility rates. In the long run, it's possible that Latinos in the United States and Latin Americans will stabilize at a fertility rate comparable to or maybe even lower than the white American rate.

    In any case, increased economic development in Latin America would solve the mass immigration problem more effectively than a wall would.

    I have also thaought about the possibility that latin America at some point will converge to the ultra low fertility rates currently seen in Spain and Italy, or, in other words, around 1.3 children per woman. In the case of Mexico, which is comparably developed, it can’t be ruled out since there are already countries at the same level of development as Mexico having TFRs below 1.5 (Thailand and Mauritius, which are also comparable in human capital to Mexico).

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    It can't happen soon enough, for their well-being or ours.
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  • @5371
    Nobody actually registers all births south of the US border, the graph is guesswork.

    At least in Mexico, birth registration is improving every year and tehy also make a huge effort registering births that even happened 30 years ago.

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  • Fundamentally solve the “intelligence problem,” and all other problems become trivial. The problem is that this problem is a very hard one, and our native wit is unlikely to suffice. Moreover, because problems tend to get harder, not easier, as you advance up the technological ladder (Karlin, 2015), in a “business as usual” scenario with...
  • @AP

    I think the probability of that is low – making such a virus would be extremely hard. It is not in the virus’ interests to kill its hosts, so even if lethality is initially very high, as with some strains of ebola, it tends to go way down over time....Note that even if it were to kill a billion people, it would still not constitute a true existential risk.
     
    I'm thinking creating a virus with a 99%+ kill rate (something like in the 12 monkeys movie) that spreads as easily as a common cold and does so more quickly than the development of immunity or creation of vaccines. I recall reading somewhere that some such things had been created, then destroyed (or prused, and then abandoned). This sort of virus would probably not kill everyone, but might reduce humanity to the dozens of millions, or maybe even less, scattered on remote islands, quarantined until everyone else dies off.

    please see my responses to Klon, where I address those same points.
     
    This makes sense, but you are being too pessimistic here - indeed, this is probably an optimistic scenario. The idea is that in the West, as non-breeders disappear, those whose families have more children become ever higher percentage of society, so that eventually fertility rate and population rise. So when the Catholic traditionalists become a majority in France, France's population will rebound; likewise for Siberian ethnic Russians in Russia, Mormons, Amish, hardcore Christians among American whites, etc. In this case, according to Kolk et al, there are two possibilities:

    1. The "breeders" take over and the population eventually skyrockets. America is full of Mormons, Amish, and traditional Christians with 3-8 kids per family in perpetuity.

    2. The "breeders" will become a large enough % to sustain the population but due to attrition (countries will maintain different subgroups with different lifestyles) to lower-breeding groups by some breeders' kids the population will stabilize once the equilibrium is achieved.

    In the case of the first possibility, does this mean eventual unsustainable growth? I'm not so sure. These high-fertility groups in the West tend to live in relatively sparsely populated areas (Utah, rural areas, Siberia), where having lots of kids doesn't change one's lifestyle and environment too much. There is still plenty of room for more people in those places. The idea of eventual massive overpopulation rests on the assumption that high-breeding Westerners such as Mormons, traditional Christians, etc. would tolerate cramped surroundings resembling rural India or Bangladesh in their packed humanity. I strongly suspect this would not be the case. So in the first scenario, I would expect stabilization, several centuries from now. At that time, places such as the USA might have a billion people, Russia 2 billion or so, Canada a billion (assuming warmer climate for the latter two countries). There would never be a global population of 100 billion people.

    In the case of the first possibility, does this mean eventual unsustainable growth? I’m not so sure. These high-fertility groups in the West tend to live in relatively sparsely populated areas (Utah, rural areas, Siberia), where having lots of kids doesn’t change one’s lifestyle and environment too much. There is still plenty of room for more people in those places. The idea of eventual massive overpopulation rests on the assumption that high-breeding Westerners such as Mormons, traditional Christians, etc. would tolerate cramped surroundings resembling rural India or Bangladesh in their packed humanity. I strongly suspect this would not be the case. So in the first scenario, I would expect stabilization, several centuries from now. At that time, places such as the USA might have a billion people, Russia 2 billion or so, Canada a billion (assuming warmer climate for the latter two countries). There would never be a global population of 100 billion people.

    Utah is actually fairly densely populated if you discount deserts and mountains. Most of Utahns live in the Wasatch front, a valley that is already half built up. Haredi Jews have 7 children per woman even though they live in densely populated Israel and the dense BosWash corridor.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin

    How solid do you think this theory is?
     
    I think its pretty solid, in that it syncs with common sense, the heritability of personality, and is an extrapolation of observed data (rising intergenerational fertility correlations).

    I can also speculate as to why it is not very popular:

    (1) Like HBD, it is not very politically correct - as Pinker has long pointed out, society has a strong "blank slate" bias.

    (2) Whereas at least some HBD findings are relative to current issues (e.g. IQ/economic development, crime rates, etc) this is only of significant relevance to the far future, i.e. 200 years time.

    For understandable reasons people discount the far future.

    Maybe you should write an article about it or I should try pitching it to Sailer.
     
    If Sailer were to blog his thoughts about it that would indeed help bring it into the limelight since his audience is 10x that of mine.

    Could you explain why the trends would be dysgenic (IQ is inversely correlated with fertility inside populations)?
     
    Correct (at least for now): http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nor-breeding-their-best/

    This is more speculative, but I suspect the link between higher IQ and lower TFR might be intrinsic to the human condition. I recall reading about a psychological experiment in which more intelligent people (of both sexes) were relatively more amused/entertained by animal pets while duller people were relatively more amused/entertained by human children.

    Another scenario, at least in the short- and mid-term, is a total transformation of society through automation, robotics and AI eliminating most human jobs.
     
    That's certainly going to happen in the next few decades, but my post was after all about the third millennium. :)

    Incidentally, Randal Parker has speculated that automation and robots will actually augment, not dampen, fertility rates: http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/009885.html

    As I have worked quite a bit with the religiosity and fertility question, to me it appears sound, but also from another viewpoint that only applies to modern and liberal conditions. While industrialization has removed the motivation to have kids because they can be workers and has initiated the demographic transition and fertility decline, the stuff that happened in the 1960s and understandably is viewed very negatively here, has removed or at leats decrease the motivation to have kids because of general ideas in society on how families look like. In today’s societies where this standard is questioned more and more, the only motivation that is left to have kids is because of personal reasons. This means that of course only the breeders are left to have many children. Kind of fascinating how the left basically created its own demographic demise.

    I disagree though with the negative link between IQ and fertility to be intrinsic. Research has already shown that more educated people on average intend and want to have more children than less educated people. The problem is that they also face more constraints and are more aware of those constraints of course. Policy can however remove these obstacles. Fertility among native Danes and Belgians e.g. is slightly eugenic. I’d even go as far as assuming that the more intelligent of the breeder group will have a higher reproductive success.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure, pointing out the the fact of the demographic transition is a very good argument, and it needs to be addressed.

    Before the Malthusian transition, there were huge incentives to have families - more hands for farm work; the high mortality rates for infants and children; also, the banal fact that wearing a condom made out of sheep guts presumably wasn't very enjoyable.

    However, families that had more children than they could could support suffered higher death rates for their lack of discipline. Hence, there was an equilibrium in which committed "breeders" only ever constituted a small share of the population.

    When Malthusian constraints fell away at around the time of the industrial revolution, along with the loosening of traditionalist pro-natality mores (have as many children as you can support and no more), the underpinnings of the old equilibrium crumbled away. However, since in most populations breeders are not yet a high percentage of the population - Orthodox Jewry and the Amish might be exceptions, since many of the people less committed to their values (inc. high natality) get "boiled off" with every generation - at first (i.e. the first century or so) this only had very modest effects, because there were very few "breeders" at t=0.

    Hence, cultural and social influences played much greater roles in determining fertility in First World nations during the 20th century, and at least in Africa, will probably continue to do so for the next century. In fact, one counterintuitive prediction that I would make is that Africa c.2100 will have lower TFRs than most current First World nations.

    Kolk et al., 2014 modeled this:

    Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers... We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time.
     
    "Breeders" as a share of the population are barely different three generations in than at the start, but are rising rapidly by the 5th generation, and come to constitute the vast majority of people by the 12th generation.

    Incidentally, Germany had its fertility transition 3 generations ago, whereas France had it about 5 generations ago.

    And this map is quite famous: http://i36.tinypic.com/1679y7n.png

    Hmm...

    There is already evidence in Israel and some counties in the US for that. As the share of Ultraorthodox Jews increases, fertility rates increase by a tiny bit every year, just because of this composition effect. In the US, Haredi Jews are increasingly heading for the suburbs and are creating towns close to NYC where they are on their own, as their expansion in Brooklyn is increasingly limited due to expensive housing. Rockland county, NY is an interesting example for that. In the early 1980s, the TFR in Rockland county was around 1.7, being below the American average. In the meantime however, due to the rising share of Haredi Jews, it has continuously crept up to 2.8. In just a few decades, NYC will be surrounded by many high fertility suburbs as their expansion continues.

    The interesting thing though is that these kind of breeder groups so far have only popped up in the West and nowhere else. No breeders so far in Eastern Asia, Africa, or anywhere else.

    I know that map btw. ;) Had lots of fierce debates with the guy who made it on the demographic prospects of France and my dear own country.

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  • @Klon
    On "Malthusian industrialism/business as usual," I'd say your premises are pretty weak (or at least, some elaboration would be helpful).
    Specifically, it's not clear where the ideas of breeders/rearers and massive population growth come from (actually I noticed Jayman's influence in the phrasing, which is a warning flag in itself).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
    I'm sure you're familiar with the idea and the data. Basically, almost every country outside Africa is either already at below replacement levels (1-2) or will be there soon (2-3).
    Even in Africa, there are already countries at 'moderate' levels (e.g. South Africa, which again points to falling fertility in correlation with development). The continent as a whole went from a TFR of approx. 7 between 1950 and 1980 to 4 now and is predicted to be at 2.5 in 2050.
    In conclusion, it seems like people who attain some basic standard of living just aren't particularly interested in having children (Bangladesh is at 2.2 with a GDP PPP p.c. 0f 3.3k USD). Consequently, I don't understand where the population explosion is supposed to come from.
    Having written all that, I just realized what you were saying (really). Selection is currently underway for those with high "fertility preference", so future people will be very fertile? In my opinion, the hereditary component must be much smaller than the environmental one; for examples see above.

    Sure, pointing out the the fact of the demographic transition is a very good argument, and it needs to be addressed.

    Before the Malthusian transition, there were huge incentives to have families – more hands for farm work; the high mortality rates for infants and children; also, the banal fact that wearing a condom made out of sheep guts presumably wasn’t very enjoyable.

    However, families that had more children than they could could support suffered higher death rates for their lack of discipline. Hence, there was an equilibrium in which committed “breeders” only ever constituted a small share of the population.

    When Malthusian constraints fell away at around the time of the industrial revolution, along with the loosening of traditionalist pro-natality mores (have as many children as you can support and no more), the underpinnings of the old equilibrium crumbled away. However, since in most populations breeders are not yet a high percentage of the population – Orthodox Jewry and the Amish might be exceptions, since many of the people less committed to their values (inc. high natality) get “boiled off” with every generation – at first (i.e. the first century or so) this only had very modest effects, because there were very few “breeders” at t=0.

    Hence, cultural and social influences played much greater roles in determining fertility in First World nations during the 20th century, and at least in Africa, will probably continue to do so for the next century. In fact, one counterintuitive prediction that I would make is that Africa c.2100 will have lower TFRs than most current First World nations.

    Kolk et al., 2014 modeled this:

    Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers… We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time.

    “Breeders” as a share of the population are barely different three generations in than at the start, but are rising rapidly by the 5th generation, and come to constitute the vast majority of people by the 12th generation.

    Incidentally, Germany had its fertility transition 3 generations ago, whereas France had it about 5 generations ago.

    And this map is quite famous:

    Hmm…

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    • Agree: Cicerone
    • Replies: @Klon
    Thanks for the reply. Obviously I got a bit carried away in my assessment of our relative familiarity with the topic (although I knew you knew about TFR, I guess I just couldn't imagine the alternative). How solid do you think this theory is? Could you explain why the trends would be dysgenic (IQ is inversely correlated with fertility inside populations)? Plus, the theory is very unkown (not mentioned in the Wikipedia article and I've never heard it discussed in HBD/altright circles), but potentially hugely important. Maybe you should write an article about it or I should try pitching it to Sailer.

    As for the rest, I think the singularity is quite plausible. Another scenario, at least in the short- and mid-term, is a total transformation of society through automation, robotics and AI eliminating most human jobs. Whether it is closer to a post-scarcity utopia or something else remains to be seen. I think this option (if it's on the utopian side, of course) might be (for many people, or at least me) preferable to whatever the singularity might mean.

    , @Glossy
    Incidentally, Germany had its fertility transition 3 generations ago, whereas France had it about 5 generations ago

    I remember looking at bits of Diderot's Encyclopedia years ago, and the article on France said that the French weren't breeding enough, that the royal government had incentives for them to have more kids, but that this wasn't working.

    France was Europe's intellectual leader then, so the anti-clerical trend started there very early. Voltaire and co., Enlightenmnt, then the Revolution.

    In the Middle Ages France had several times more people than the British Isles, much more than Germany. I think it still had more people than the Russian Empire at the time of the Napoleonic invasion! And that was the old Russian Empire, with Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Finland, the southern Caucasus.

    So the French were the first to go left and down (population-wise), and now maybe first to go right and up? They certainly have a larger far-right than most Euro countries.
    , @Cicerone
    There is already evidence in Israel and some counties in the US for that. As the share of Ultraorthodox Jews increases, fertility rates increase by a tiny bit every year, just because of this composition effect. In the US, Haredi Jews are increasingly heading for the suburbs and are creating towns close to NYC where they are on their own, as their expansion in Brooklyn is increasingly limited due to expensive housing. Rockland county, NY is an interesting example for that. In the early 1980s, the TFR in Rockland county was around 1.7, being below the American average. In the meantime however, due to the rising share of Haredi Jews, it has continuously crept up to 2.8. In just a few decades, NYC will be surrounded by many high fertility suburbs as their expansion continues.

    The interesting thing though is that these kind of breeder groups so far have only popped up in the West and nowhere else. No breeders so far in Eastern Asia, Africa, or anywhere else.

    I know that map btw. ;) Had lots of fierce debates with the guy who made it on the demographic prospects of France and my dear own country.
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  • Last year, I resumed my New Year's tradition of posting annual predictions. I recently analyzed the success rate of those predictions for 2016, the year when meme magic became real. Here are my predictions for 2017: No major conflict (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia that involves China and/or the US: 95%. US will not...
  • I’d also be interested in your prediction whether Russia will be able to post a higher fertility rate than the US in 2017. In 2015, the figures were 1.84 and 1.78 for the US and Russia, respectively. In 2016, based on already published birth figures , my forecast is 1.82 and 1.78. It could either be that Russia has for the moment maxed out at a rate of 1.8 children per woman, or it could be the impact of the current crisis. In the US it will be an interesting question whether there will be a “Trump effect” that lifts fertility up again, or whether the US stays “European” as you said.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Rosstat data for 2016 shows marriages falling substantially, which is usually a bad sign for next year fertility, so I very much doubt the TFR is going to increase.

    I suspect US TFR will remain marginally above Russia's next year.
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  • @Anatoly Karlin

    Big city mayors are liberal wimps who will continue to muzzle police in response to unrest.
     
    My confidence in this particular prediction isn't high. I'm just betting (as with the campus disinvitations prediction) that the groundswell of opinion against SJWism in all its forms as expressed in Trumpism is going to affect the people in charge - who do after all have elections to win and students to attract - more strongly than their urge to react hystrionically to Trump.

    As immigrants become the main beneficiaries of the Euro welfare states, the natives should be expected to turn against statism. You’ve written about US politics becoming more European.
     
    I totally agree. As Sailer pointed out there was an amazing r=-0.87 correlation between %Blacks and Bernie share of the vote in the primaries.

    I’m more pessimistic on that one.
     
    It's what statistics over the past few years would indicate. From the 2016 predictions: "Although the concern about them is highly understandable, it should be noted that in the past ~decade there were only two such instances – Spain in 2004, and France in 2015. So there’s likely a less than 50% chance of that happening in any one year, regardless of the current increase in tensions."

    It’s what statistics over the past few years would indicate. From the 2016 predictions: “Although the concern about them is highly understandable, it should be noted that in the past ~decade there were only two such instances – Spain in 2004, and France in 2015. So there’s likely a less than 50% chance of that happening in any one year, regardless of the current increase in tensions.“

    It’s true, however I’d still agree with Glossy. While in history, those attachs have been very rare in the EU, their probability has increased nevertheless. After all, the Nice terrorist also came rather close to killing 100 people.

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  • There is a new expert survey out which, amongst other things, queries the world's top psychometrics experts on the future of the FLynn effect (Flynn + Lynn - clever). James Thompson has a summary at his column. The two most important reasons for the end of the FLynn effect in the West are regarded to...
  • (according to some calculations, solar is already reaching cost parity with fossil fuels; what happens when countries like Saudi Arabia lose their oil rents?)

    As a cautious optimist I would say that it on the one hand will lead to a collapse of the current order and lead to massive losses in living standards in the most oil dependent countries. However, and this is more important, there also lies a chance in it. The end of oil could force the people in these countries to rethink their traditions and scrap them partially due to economic pressure. the Muslim world currently has the lowest female labor force participation rates, which keeps both fertility high and cousin marriage prevalent. Once they will be forced to actually work for their life instead of being pampered by oil, more females will have to work, which will change the whole game. Probably that shock will be so severe, that fertility in the currently most backward islamic countries will drop to extremely low levels.

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    • Replies: @Sunbeam
    "Once they will be forced to actually work for their life instead of being pampered by oil, more females will have to work, which will change the whole game. "

    I'm going to try to keep this short (because drive by posters on this site are a wordy lot).

    But I don't think this is going to be possible. Technology has changed a lot. Germany has higher wages than most of the Eurozone, and is the manufacturing center of the EU (such that is, compared to China, Korea, and Japan which German industry is protected from while getting to feast on the Greeks and Portugese).

    How exactly would middle easterners be competitive in the world labor market? I think rather they would find that no one wants that product at any price.

    Frankly I don't know what they do in the long run. Agriculture really isn't an option. I'm fairly certain they aren't going to be a manufacturing center. What services could they sell?

    Tourism... uh I'm thinking this one is a no go. Yeah, yeah, pyramids got it. But I think Islam means no middle eastern nation sans Israel ever makes tourism a revenue center a la Paris and London. Hmmm you know regarding those cities...
    , @pyrrhus
    I own a 5k solar rooftop system in one of the best solar energy locations in North America. Despite that, it would not be an economic capital investment without the massive subsidies and tax credits I received from various governments. Some studies show that solar systems do not even repay the energy cost of building and installing them: they certainly do not come close to the 12-1 ratio necessary to maintain modern civilization.
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  • From the Los Angeles Times: Or maybe not. Almost nobody realizes that California's baby boom of the early 1990s was due to the amnesty bill passed in 1986. High fertility in California is largely a function of Latino immigrants arriving, noticing you can drink the water right out of the tap and other miracles of...
  • Another fun fact: During the 1970s and 80s, for each 1000 White San Franciscans, there were 7 more deaths than births each year. This natural decline rate of 7 per 1000 was reached by Russia only for a few years during the worst part of its demographic crisis.

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  • @Anatoly Karlin
    California has a 2015 TFR = 1.79, but given high Latino (esp Mexican) fertility, plus California being one of the states where White deaths actually outnumber births (https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/infographic/white-deaths), it seems likely that Californian White fertility is actually very low by US standards - possibly around the TFR = 1.6 figure you see in heavily White areas of the North-East such as Mass, NH, Vermont, etc.

    Here you find the data you’re looking for:

    https://www.cdph.ca.gov/data/statistics/Documents/VSC-2014-0202.pdf

    White Californian TFR has been hovering between 1.5 and 1.6 from 2010-2014. Another interesting fact is that Black fertility in California is now at 1.5-1.6 as well, which is probably the lowest Black fertility rate world wide.

    Over the whole period, Multiracials were the least fertile racial group in California.

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    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks.

    I see Asian fertility increased from 1.5 to 1.9 during 2010-2014. I wonder why.
    , @Triumph104
    The black fertility rate in Cuba would probably be the same if not lower than California blacks. Google says the country of Cuba has a fertility rate of 1.45. While Cuba is officially one third black, I go along with others who believe that it is two-thirds black (including mulattos). Cuba's high abortion rate is second only to Russia and approximately that of US black women.

    Caribbean countries like Barbados, Bahamas, and Trinidad have fertility rates of about 1.80-1.89. Bermuda is 1.76.
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  • White, Asian and Black fertility has always been rock-bottom in California, especially in LA and SF. In LA county, encompassing a good quarter of all of California, Whites have 1.3 children on average, Asians 1.4, Blacks 1.7 and Hispanics 2.2. American born Asians however average 1.1 children, equal to the fertility rate you find in Asian metropolises like Tokyo, Seoul or Singapore.

    Low fertility however has always been a tradition in California, so the current trend is just a reversal back to normal. In the 1930s, LA and SF were the cities with the lowest fertility rates in the US.

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  • Well, apart from the Gulf states - thanks in large part to coming from such a low base that even subcontinental coolies are an improvement over the natives. Otherwise, the cognitive impact of immigration - at least as proxied by the differences in performance on the PISA tests between the national average, which includes immigrant...
  • I have heard that the Lynn figures on Italy were in fact drawn from a sample of Northern Italians. In this case, their IQ estimate resembles the PISA results of 2012 for Northern Italy perfectly. Results for Italian regions were available in the 2012 round and Northern Italy came in at around 102, Central Italy at 98 and Southern Italy at 94, similar to Greece.

    besides that, many of the studies Lynn cited, had only very small sample sizes, often in the double-digits, so they can only give a rough estimation. PISA tests, even though they are not designated IQ tests, have a much bigger sample size, and I’d say if you even them out across some rounds, you’ll get pretty accurate estimates for developed countries.

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    • Replies: @M
    @Cicerone, it's the same story here.

    For 2016, the Annex B (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2015-results-volume-i/results-tables-immigrant-background-student-performance-and-students-attitudes-towards-science_9789264266490-table125-en;jsessionid=k37wmcvo1of9.x-oecd-live-03) drills down to scores for subregions.

    Math, Science and Reading for subregions and Science broken down into both subregions and migrant background or not.

    For Italy, for Natives and Science, you get:

    Italy Bolzano - 522
    Italy Trento - 518
    Italy Lombaria - 510
    Italy Campania - 449

    which compared with Native scores of:

    Japan - 539
    Switzerland - 527
    Spain Castile and Leon - 523
    UK England - 520
    Korea - 516
    UK Northern Ireland - 509
    UK Scotland - 498
    UK Wales - 488
    Spain Extremadura - 476
    Greece - 461
    Bulgaria - 450
    Turkey - 427

    So assuming Science is not a big outlier for these places, using a quick regression equation on Science scores against the "IQ" I worked out before ("IQ" = 6.8964+(0.18308*Science) ), that translates to a Native "IQ":

    Italy Bolzano - 102.4
    Italy Trento - 101.7
    Italy Lombaria - 100.3
    Italy Campania - 89.0

    UK England - 102.1
    UK Northern Ireland - 100.1
    UK Scotland - 98.1
    UK Wales - 96.2

    Spain Castile and Leon - 102.7
    Spain Extramadura - 94.0

    Scores based on all 3 PISA variables (if we had them) would probably wobble a point or so from that in either direction.

    The education or "IQ" gap in Italy is by far the biggest in any European nation, and along with Cypriots, Montenegrins, Romanians and Bulgarians, Southern Italians seem to be the worst participating Europeans, while Northern Italians score comparably to Northwest Europeans and almost as well as the top performing Central European natives (German and Swiss). Differences in Spain (the North vs South) and the UK (England vs the Welsh periphery) are not quite as big.

    It is a puzzle as to whether that reflects any kind of genetic difference, or it is more difference in the cultural approach and deprivation and funding. I think its hard for me to imagine its mainly a genetic difference.
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  • @Pericles

    due to their family policies which indirectly favor highly educated people (free/cheap childcare and an environment where mothers are generally in employment seems to do the trick).

     

    I wouldn't agree that they do. The problem remains, like elsewhere, that high-IQ women spend their most fertile years in education or working rather than reproducing. In my highly educated Swedish SWPL MC/UMC surroundings, it leads to 0-2 children per couple. I think most aim for two. I don't personally know anyone my age or younger (let's say below 40) in my stratum who has had 3 children or more. In short, these policies do not seem to encourage the highly educated or intelligent to reproduce much.

    The sole effect I'm aware of is that couples tend to cluster their two children to arrive about 2 years apart, because of the way child benefits are structured. It appears you get a maximally long paid parental leave that way. (Please don't ask me to delve into the details.)

    In the Scandinavian countries the lower classes however don’t aim for or have more children than the highly educated. In Sweden e.g., the lowest educated people have 2 children on average, while university educated people have 1.9. In Germany it’s 1.6 for the low educated vs. 1.3 for the university graduates.

    The diffference between the two countries (at least up until a few years ago), is that Swedish underclass women are working, while in Germany many are playing housewife. If you want to tackle underclass and immigrant fertility, bring their women into work. This will also break up traditional family patterns of immigrants, as it empowers their women.

    In the US, university graduates have 1.7 children, which is not that different from Canada. However the low educated, which also have a higher share in the US than in Canada, have 2.4, while the smaller lower class in Canada breeds 1.9 children. The interesting thing is that most of the Canadian American fertility gap can be explained by the more fertile American underclass.

    In Brazil, the lowest educated have 2.7 and the university educated have 1.2, to cite one of the very dysgenic countries (yes, this is lower than the corresponding German figure!).

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  • @reiner Tor
    The generational IQ loss in Africa definitely seems exaggerated in Africa. I'm suspicious of any changes larger than 1 point per generation, and especially for countries with such low bases it doesn't look realistic. Can't comment on the rest.

    It definitely is exaggerated. The measure is the more accurate, the more education outcomes resemble IQ distributions. in Africa you can assume that a lot of comparably intelligent people end up getting a low education because the education systems are shitty. Those undiscovered talents of course are included in the reproduction statistics of the low educated people.

    Those IQ loss rates should be treated as the upper limit of loss, as children never perfectly in herit their parents IQ (I didn’t account for regression to the mean) and education systems are not perfect (I assumed that the smartest middle educated person is slightly less intelligent than the dumbest highly educated person, or in other words, I sliced the normal distribution of IQ according to education levels and their distribution).

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  • Now that we have established that immigration is not much good, let's take a look at another component undergirding our transition to Idiocracy - the differential fertility rates of different IQ groups. This is a highly contentious topic, and not just on account of the usual political kurfuffles, but also on real disagreements as to...
  • I calculated the “slope” in terms of PISA-adjusted IQ points lost per additional sibling for the first four siblings (in practice, since TFR <<6 for all countries in PISA 2000, the IQ of children from even larger families won’t have much of an effect). See the table at the bottom of this post.

    I am still wondering if different fertility rates in the countries in question skew your results a bit. In low fertility countries like Germany, the difference between 0, 1 and 2 siblings matter much more than that between 2 and 3 for example. If there are statistics on the percentages or distribution, one can refine the b measure.

    Anyway, it’s interesting how in many countries, children with one sibling are slightly more intelligent than single children. This speaks for a strong two-child norm in these countries, to which more educated people are more likely to cling.

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    • Agree: Kyle McKenna
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  • Well, apart from the Gulf states - thanks in large part to coming from such a low base that even subcontinental coolies are an improvement over the natives. Otherwise, the cognitive impact of immigration - at least as proxied by the differences in performance on the PISA tests between the national average, which includes immigrant...
  • @Sam Shama
    Anatoli,
    Good to see you back here.

    I am by no means well-versed on the IQ Inc. literature/methodologies and in truth a bit of a sceptic (although I have taken several IQ tests in past decades)


    (1) What is the standard deviation of the reported IQ scores here? I've seen estimates of 9-10. If so, changes of -1.3 or +6.35 are well within the realm of non-remarkable observations, are they not? Perhaps I am mistaken, and PISA scores have different sd's and averages?

    (2) To be clear I am not an advocate of unlimited immigration and believe that the West needs to halt the process until we have a better sense of what we are getting into. However, I think the strong conclusions drawn here need to be re-visited, or at least better explained, if these changes are statistically significant in the first place.

    The standard deviation of IQ is usually normed to be 15.

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    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    Indeed, the only one for which the sd was different that I have heard of was the Cattell IQ test for which the sd was 24.
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  • If you go by homemade IQ drop (due to fertility differences, aka dysgenics), then Latin America takes the prize while the Scandinavian countries hardly experience dysgenic fertility at all due to their family policies which indirectly favor highly educated people (free/cheap childcare and an environment where mothers are generally in employment seems to do the trick). The problem however is that their non-dysgenic fertility gets dysgenic nevertheless due to immigration.

    The most favorable conditions seem to be in Canada (selective migration paired with non-dysgenic fertility) and Japan (almost no immigration coupled with only lightly dysgenic trend). Of the developed countries, the US (comparably high dysgenic fertility) and Central Europe are fucked.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The generational IQ loss in Africa definitely seems exaggerated in Africa. I'm suspicious of any changes larger than 1 point per generation, and especially for countries with such low bases it doesn't look realistic. Can't comment on the rest.
    , @Perspective
    "The most favorable conditions seem to be in Canada (selective migration paired with non-dysgenic fertility) and Japan (almost no immigration coupled with only lightly dysgenic trend). Of the developed countries, the US (comparably high dysgenic fertility) and Central Europe are fucked. "

    Although not a huge part of the population, Canadian Amerindians lower the score of Natives in Canada. The lowest scoring Provinces in Canada, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, have the largest Amerinidan populations. If conditions don't start to improve for Amerindians, this will have a bigger impact in the future because of their high fertility.
    , @Pericles

    due to their family policies which indirectly favor highly educated people (free/cheap childcare and an environment where mothers are generally in employment seems to do the trick).

     

    I wouldn't agree that they do. The problem remains, like elsewhere, that high-IQ women spend their most fertile years in education or working rather than reproducing. In my highly educated Swedish SWPL MC/UMC surroundings, it leads to 0-2 children per couple. I think most aim for two. I don't personally know anyone my age or younger (let's say below 40) in my stratum who has had 3 children or more. In short, these policies do not seem to encourage the highly educated or intelligent to reproduce much.

    The sole effect I'm aware of is that couples tend to cluster their two children to arrive about 2 years apart, because of the way child benefits are structured. It appears you get a maximally long paid parental leave that way. (Please don't ask me to delve into the details.)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • From the Washington Post: U.S. life expectancy declines for the first time since 1993 By Lenny Bernstein December 8 at 12:01 AM For the first time in more than two decades, life expectancy for Americans declined last year [2015] — a troubling development linked to a panoply of worsening health problems in the United States....
  • I don’t think it had something to do with the Ferguson effect or a continuation of the White death. In many other developed countries, life expectyncies declined as well in 2015 compared to 2014, due to an exceptionally deadly flu season in the beginning of 2015.

    In Italy for example, LE declined from 82.7 in 2014 to 82.3 in 2015, in Belgium from 81.1 to 80.9, in Austria from 81.4 to 81.15 and in the UK by 0.2-0.3 years. ( http://www.theactuary.com/news/2016/04/life-expectancy-falls-thanks-to-a-spike-in-flu-and-dementia-related-deaths/ )

    All of these declines are stronger than the one in the US.

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  • Here are the overall 2015 PISA scores (averaging the Science, Reading, and Math scores equally), with color coding to put the various American scores (red bars) in perspective. Keep in mind that some countries didn't do a good job of rounding up everybody who was supposed to take the test, which probably serves to boost...
  • @little spoon
    Why is this test considered a proxy of population IQ? Looking at those results, it seems impossible to believe both of the following: 1) PISA is a g loaded test that can be used to approximate IQ, 2) Population IQ is primarily driven by genetics. It just doesn't add up. The difference between white americans and blacks is 87 points. In the previous year, it was 84. Let's therefore assume the SD on this test is about 85 points. The difference between the highest scoring Scando-Slavic country (Estonia) and the lowest (Lithuania) is 49, which is nearly as high as the difference between white Americans and hispanics in the US (54). More absurdly, the difference between the highest scoring slavic nation, Slovenia, and the lowest scoring slavic nation, Montenegro, is 90- greater than the black white gap and greater than 1 SD. Those are not only two slavic nations but two former yugolsavian nations which are very similar in terms of language and genetics- at least they look the same to me as I have been to both countries. Montenegro doesn't cover 10% and Slovenia doesn't cover 7%. Similar for Estonia vs. Lithuania. In both cases the country sampling slightly more of the population does markedly better. As it happens, Slovenia has a GDP per capita 3 times that of montenegro, so the score disparity is not hard to explain if you favor economic factors; it's just impossible to explain if you think these scores are representative of innate potential as driven by genetic cognitive abilities. And obviously, you have black Americans outscoring some white populations like Moldovans and Montenegrians. Why would that be the case if this test could be used as a reliable estimate of g?

    It seems that either you can teach people to take these tests (which some are doing more than others) or that there is huge sampling error in how much of the population these tests can be used to estimate skills for. Either way, I don't think it makes sense for people to be deriving IQ scores from these. There is a reason the IQ test is a carefully calibrated test. It's not a measurement you can throw a dart at like this.

    The SD in PISA is by design aimed to be 100 with a “mean” of 500, akin to IQ definitions of a mean of 100 and a SD of 15.

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  • The SF Bay Area. As I am leaving the United States for an indeterminate period of time, now would likely not be a bad time to share some of my impressions of what is still, when all is said and done, an extraordinarily effective, dynamic, and successful nation. It would be redundant to compare to...
  • I very much liked your summary on the changes in the US in the last decade. It was pretty much my impression as well. As a teenager I was one of the few Germans to like Bush (even though he started those failed interventions, but I was young and naive back then ;) ).
    I was also pretty much anti-China back then (they are the reds after all and about to take over the West), however my sentiment turned quickly as I grew up, as Obama turned the US towards the left and as I learned about HBD. It will be interesting to see whether Trump will be able to turn the US around again and does the right thing of splendid isolation and noninterventionism.

    Anyway, as I also became a demographer since then, my take on the marked fertility decline in the US during that time is that declining fertility among Hispanics played a big part in this. Under Bush’s housing bubble, Hispanic fertility stayed 2.8ish, but during the crisis and due to a fall in immigration, they quickly dropped to 2.1. Among Whites there was some decline as well that might be attributed to secularization and the US becoming more European, but it was only a small decline (from 1.88 to 1.76). Obama in the end brought down fertility rates of all nonwhite groups to all-time lows.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Whites as currently defined in US statistics include Arabs, Iranians, Turks and even Afghans.
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  • At his blog Greg Cochran raises the issue of the Great Stagnation. Basically, GDP per capita growth rates throughout the developed world have plummeted relative to the levels of 1950-1973 (the years of the miracle economy, Wirtschaftswunder, trentes glorieuses, etc). They are however more or less typical of growth rates earlier in the century, substantially...
  • Another factor that partly explains the boom of 1950-1973 is energy. Hydrocarbon (oil and gas) consumption doubled every 10 years during that period and rose from being a fringe fuel besides coal and wood to become widely used all over the world. The advantage of oil over coal is that it can be shipped much more efficiently, meaning that after 1950, the development of industry wasn’t tied to the country being both rich in energy and human capital but only in human capital anymore. Therfore, rapid development finally was possible in high-IQ but resource poor countries like Japan, Korea but also in Southern Europe. Brazil and mexico also developed rapidly, but soon hit the glass ceiling.

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    • Agree: BB753
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  • Turkey has a proud and rich history of military coups. As analysts tirelessly point out, they are even sanctioned by the Constitution as a means of preserving secularism. However, those days have come to an end. The abortive coup of the past few days was in all likelihood the dying gasp of 20th century Turkey....
  • The theory of conservatives having moved to the big Turkish cities and having turned them into being in favor of Erdogan also explains the strong convergence of fertility rates over time. In the heydays of secularism in the 1950s, the TFR in Turkey was over 6, while it was below 3 in the poster child of Turkish modernity, Istanbul. Since then, rural folks have flocked into the city and thus today, Istanbul’s fertility isn’t that different from the overall Turkish rate anymore:

    When it comes to the Turkish/Kurdish fertility difference, it has so far stubbornly remained at two children. While in the past it was 8 for the Kurds and 6 for the Turks, it now is 4 for the Kurds and 2 for the Turks:

    The future of ffertility in Turkey will be quite interesting: While I can’t tell anything about future regional shifts, in my eyes overall fertility in Turkey will decline quite a bit, and this is because of rising women’s employment. So far, Turkey (as most other islamic countries) has very low female labor force participation, but in Turkey this has been rising in the past few years, as productivity is stalling and getting more people to work is the only way to grow the economy. Usually, as females enter the economy and childcare is not so much available, fertility drops to those familiar levels of 1.3 or so, as women who want to do a career can’t have children anymore. In Turkey, more and more women are starting careers because the male labor potential has already been activated. It is possible that, along this development, Turkey will see its TFR drop to those levels now seen in Greece, Italy or Spain.

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    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
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  • Source: Ben Garrison - Abandon Ship In recent days the Brexit debate has suddenly gone from boring to interesting, with opinion polls swinging from a comfortable lead for Remain to a neck and neck race between staying in and leaving the EU. One of the most recent polls has even seen Leave take a ten...
  • No matter what, 2016 will have been one of the most decisive years in modern history with decisions in all corners of the Western World that have the potential to shake the global power system. From Cologne over Brussels and Orlando, from the triumph of the populist right and possible Brexit to the grand final of Trump vs. Clinton.

    The EU and the whole West is in deep lethargy since the financial crisis. Progress, productivity and growth stalling, fertility declining in many countries, Islam issue still unresolved etc. I hope that the Brits will decide in favour of Brexit and will send shockwaves through the system that are badly needed. The West needs a restart and needs to get going again.

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    • Replies: @Berta Arnason

    No matter what, 2016 will have been one of the most decisive years in modern history...
     
    ... or not.
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  • I have often remarked that a convenient way to think about East Asian comparative economic development is to view its three biggest players - China, Japan, and South Korea - as being separated by twenty year "chunks" of development, with Japan being on its leading edge and China being its laggard. For instance, here is...
  • @Fidelios Automata
    Who's next? We're past due for a new East Asian Tiger.

    If you check around by average IQ and GDP per capita and look at the distortions from the true trend, then Vietnam is the most promising candidate, followed by North Korea, China (yes, China is still way behind), Ukraine, Armenia, the Palestinean Territories and Moldova. Probably Bangladesh and Myanmar also belong to this group. According to HBD theory these countries should experience the fastest GDP growth, however war or institutions prevent that at the moment.

    On the opposite side are the countries that are much richer than what their education systems and average IQs can sustain. The nature of these countries is very obvious: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE but also Luxemburg.

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  • The Washington Post, which is kind of the company newsletter of Empire Inc., has been particularly berserk about Trump. For example: The term of art is actually "Fauxcahontas," but Trump is amazingly allergic to cleverness in vocabulary. “I think people need to be treated with respect, and that’s what we’ve demanded from everyone,” he offered....
  • Could this also be the explanation for the extreme low fertility rate of American Indians in the US, that is so at odds with the higher rates measured everywhere else in the Americas for natives? I mean, we all know that these 1/64 cherokee Fauxcahontas don’t really have lots of children, but are there enough of them to drive down American Indian fertility rates to a rate of 1.4ish?

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  • From the UK Independent: Top 10 Goodest: Just how high is the correlation between Goodestism and % blue eyes? From Wiktionary:
  • Interestingly the same double connotation of “blauäugig” (blue eyed) also exists in German. It either means having blue eyes or being naive/gullible.

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  • Having used Syrian refugees as a club to get from Ms. Merkel Turkey's EU accession back on track, the Ankara strongman has announced what Turks can do with all that upcoming EU lebensraum. From Turkey's Hurriyet: No Muslim family should engage in birth control: Erdoğan ISTANBUL Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has once again expressed...
  • @Steve Sailer
    Erdogan has some sort of personal in-law relationship to Iraqi Kurds, right? What is it exactly?

    I don’t know, maybe because the Kurds in Iraq are the leats threatening to Turkey and he needs some minions.

    But then again I am not an expert in international relations or political science, but a demographer.

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  • @Anonym
    Yes, TFR of Turkey is 2.06. Here are the world trouble spots in terms of TFR. Sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan. Africa, Central Asia and Subcontinent, Central and South Americam South-East Asia. Idiocracy was right.

    http://greenplug.nu/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/TFR.jpg

    http://greenplug.nu/one-scary-chart/

    The TFR of Turkey in 2015 was 2.14.

    http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=21514

    However in the kurdish southeast, it is consistently over 3 and in some parts even at 4 children per woman, while in western Turkey it’s as low as 1.6, which is comparable to the TFRs in New England, the region with the lowest TFRs of the US.

    Since it’s mostly the Kurds who follow Erdogan’s request for more children, Erdogan ignotantly accelerates kurdification of Turkey. :D

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Erdogan has some sort of personal in-law relationship to Iraqi Kurds, right? What is it exactly?
    , @Hrw-500
    That reminds me of these articles written in 2012 where they mentionned then kurds could became the majority in one generation. http://www.ibtimes.com/kurdish-majority-turkey-within-one-generation-705466
    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/fertility-and-the-fate-of-nations/
    , @Frau Katze
    No, it's a dog whistle. The Turks know his comment means, "Don't let those Kurds outbreed us."

    He's not popular amongst the Kurds.
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  • A couple of weeks ago in Taki's Magazine, I recounted commenter Sean's theory that the German Chancellor's 2015 whim to open the gates of Europe was part of a coherent plan to weaken European opposition to united Germany's New Order in Europe by positioning Germany not as the scary hegemon it objectively is, but as...
  • @Connecticut Famer
    German unification was inevitable once it became obvious that the USSR was collapsing. The phrase "a fish rots from the head down" comes to mind. It might have been better had unification not taken place until most of the WW-II generation were asleep in their graves but...that was not to be. The only lesson that one can take from this article and from all the contributions from the readers is that here it is, over 1200 years since Charlemagne received the crown from Pope Leo as "First Kaiser" if you will, and yet we are STILL wrestling with "The German Problem."

    Firstly the solution of the German question during history had always been manipulated from the outside (in addition to inside manipulations), either through war (think of the 30 years war) or through not respecting peoples’ self determination (treaty of Versailles forbid Austria to unite with Germany and cut the German sprachraum in many pieces).

    The second part is that Germany always has been too big to be considered “just another European country” (which is why outside powers always wanted to split it up and excert influence over it, from the beginings to 1990) but too small to be an uncontested leader which of course creates instability.

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    • Replies: @Connecticut Famer
    Correct on both counts. My dad, who was from Germany, never could understand why Austria and Germany weren't one-- a united "Grossdeutschland" as it were. For the reasons you cited, it wouldn't fly. Neither the Frogs nor the Brits would stand for it, nor for that matter would Russia (though interestingly enough, Putin is considered a Germanophile).
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  • @Steve Sailer
    My dad bought a fantastic Leica camera on trip to Europe in 1959 to figure out why a Lockheed Constellation airliner had exploded over Italy. My vague impression is that the super-sharp lens was made in East Germany by the Carl Zeiss factory in Jena, the university town that had hosted Friedrich Schiller, Johann Gottlieb Fichte, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, Novalis and August Wilhelm Schlegel.

    Okay, I'm impressed.

    After reunification, the Zeiss factory moved a bit outwards and they turned the old Zeiss factory in the center of Jena towards the faculty of Economics of the University of Jena, where I happened to do my Bachelor’s. Very nice city and not (yet) culturally enriched.

    During the cold war, many western companies even produced goods in the GDR, because wages were cheaper, the workers as skilled as in the West and of course because the GDR needed foreign exchange reserves to pay for its imports.

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  • Keeping Germany divided, as Thatcher and other anti-German leaders proposed, would have never worked anyway. There was already a rising tide of Eastern Germans moving to the West, and that tide would have increased until the East was completely emptied out. Quick reunification was the only way to quickly balance out the economic situation and halt the migration flows. However, a stronger Germany, either be it the united one of today or a Western Germany with all the Eastern Germans having migrated there, was the inevitable consequence anyway, so Thatcher was foolish at best.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In the event, it had nothing to do with Thatcher - it was all Gorbachev's making.

    The great mystery of the late 20th century is just how and why Gorbachev escaped with his life.
    , @Connecticut Famer
    German unification was inevitable once it became obvious that the USSR was collapsing. The phrase "a fish rots from the head down" comes to mind. It might have been better had unification not taken place until most of the WW-II generation were asleep in their graves but...that was not to be. The only lesson that one can take from this article and from all the contributions from the readers is that here it is, over 1200 years since Charlemagne received the crown from Pope Leo as "First Kaiser" if you will, and yet we are STILL wrestling with "The German Problem."
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
  • When I posted a 2007 map of the share of European children born out of wedlock from Reddit to Twitter, it generated considerably discussion, including a discussion at Razib Kan's blog. There are many rather interesting patterns here: The Nordics, France, The Former GDR, Estonia, Bulgaria all have high rates out of wedlock births. Most...
  • Klüsener is quite a capacity on that reaearch. I had the luck of attending a course taught by him at the MPI in Rostock.

    In the case of Poland, I assume that a selection effect was at work. While part of the immigration to the annexed German lands after WWII was forced, I assume that another part was migration from Poles wanting to start a new life. Could very well be that the Poles who went westwards were of the more liberal kind (which coincides with the voting patterns).

    In Czechia there seems to be a similar pattern, where nonmarital births are more frequent in the Sudeten and less frequent in the traditional Czech lands.

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  • According to a recent BBC/Globescan opinion poll, Russia and Germany (sic!) are some of the most ethnically nationalistic major countries on the planet. Here are some highlights from the full report (PDF): Curiously, the current pattern, in which the advanced/OECD nations (Canada, Chile, Germany, Mexico, Spain, UK, USA) have become more insular than non-OECD nations...
  • Bear also in mind that Spain yet doesn’t have a sizeable radical Islamic population yet, measured by the share of Muslims having gone to fight as jihadists in Syria. Per million Muslim residents, 66 jihadists left Spain. The comparable numbers are for Italy 47, Germany 171, UK 233, France 310, Australia 350, Sweden 500, Denmark 556, Belgium 737 and Finland 1273.

    This may be just one small factor in explaining the outcomes, but it is interesting that Muslims in Spain and Italy are less radicalized than in Northern Europe.

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    • Replies: @jimmyriddle
    The last figure for the UK that I have seen is 800, approximately half of which have returned.

    More "British" Muslims joined IS than serve in the British Army.
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  • Very interesting results. My interpretetaion of the German results (as a German) is that interethnic marriage in Germany is mostly seen as German-Turkish marriages. There are several hurdles for this. First of all Turks in Germany don’t like to outmarry as much as other immigrant communities in other European countries, and therefore a German higher antipathy to it is the consequence of this. Non Turkish extraeuropeans are rare in Germany, but increasing due to Merkel’s lunacy.

    Unfortunately they haven’t polled Japan. Would be interesting to see their stance.

    I don’t know about Spain, but I can imagine that interracial in Spain means Spaniards marrying Latin Americans.

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    • Replies: @JamesWinstonSmith
    You mean Turkish women (usually the most attractive of the bunch) marrying German males to escape Islam?

    Though lately it might mean marrying German men after they've converted to Islam...
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  • From Scientific American: Africa's Population Will Soar Dangerously Unless Women Are More Empowered Population projections for the continent are alarming. The solution: empower women By Robert Engelman on February 1, 2016 By 2100 Africa's population could be three billion to 6.1 billion, up sharply from 1.2 billion today, if birth rates remain stubbornly high. This...
  • @Dave Sliny
    South Africans are pretty dumb, but the fertility rate has plunged despite this. It's extremely unlikely that the rest of Africa won't follow suit. Although Idi Amin wannabe Julius Malema did recently say that African women should have more children, there was a chilly reception.

    Yes, but not only there. Africans in big cities all over the continent have lower than average fertility (but probably also above average IQs). While in Kenya TFR is raound 3.8, it is just 2.4 in Nairobi. Similar thing with Lagos in Nigeria (4 against 5.5 children per woman) or, in an extreme form, Addis Abeba in Ethiopia (with just 1.5 children per woman against 4.8).

    So the first step of slowing down population growth should be to foster urbanization in Africa. Regarding Africa, I am not one of those believers in inborn r and k strategies. Under certain circumstances even Africans can have very few children (Addis Abeba or in many countries in the Americas), while other circumstances encourage Whites to breed like rabbits (Amish, ultraorthodox Jews).

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    • Agree: Triumph104
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    "Under certain circumstances even Africans can have very few children (Addis Abeba or in many countries in the Americas)"
    the point concerning the Americas is good, but Ethiopia is a bad example. Ethiopians are not really subsaharan Africans, but rather mixed people. In a way they are dark skinned caucasians.
    , @Santoculto
    Urbanization in Africa...

    goodbye (still existent) environment**

    Africans on avgr are not capable to produce a decent urban environment, still worst if they were incentived to destroy natural environment of their places.

    A ''half-urbanization'' could be the solution for Africa by now and one child policy, humane if possible. Create a ''urbanized'', fordist division labour in permanent transitional urban-countryside areas to reduce a fertility rates and without have the necessity to destroy the natural environment.
    , @LKM
    Good point, but two questions:

    1) How do you get them into the cities in the first place?

    People only urbanize when they perceive that there are greater opportunities for them in the cities than on the farm. Specifically, you want jobs that an average African woman is capable of doing without much training, like sewing garments for Nike or whoever in a sweatshop. This is what drove down fertility in Bangladesh, among other places. It wasn't the introduction of birth control in itself, it was the realization among husbands that their wife was worth more to them working in a sweatshop than staying at home with twelve kids. Once that epiphany occurred, the husbands were the ones pushing for birth control and smaller families as much as the wives.

    Of course in theory these sorts of jobs should have existed en mass in Africa for some time, but as far as I know, they don't. I don't know about you, but my closet contains plenty of stuff from Vietnam, Bangladesh etc, but nothing from sub-Saharan Africa. Maybe the African governments just aren't capable of maintaining the infrastructure necessary(ports etc) to make them attractive, despite the cheap cost of labour. Maybe there's too much corruption.

    Either way, if Africa doesn't have these sorts of jobs in 2016, why should they in 2040 or 2060? Do we need to wait until the price of labour in Asia and South America is equal to that of North America and Europe before companies are willing to invest in sub-Saharan Africa for something other than natural resources?

    2) With the population projects we're seeing, urbanization in Africa means Asia-style mega-cities. You can have cities of twenty million people when they're filled with Chinese, Japanese or Indians and they may be unpleasant but they can remain functional. Higher density of blacks mean a higher density of young black men, which leads to more violence. How large can a city populated exclusively by blacks be without turning into a sort of megapolis Baltimore? Who'd want to urbanize to that?
    , @5371
    Those stats are made up.
    , @anon
    You're reading massively disproportionate male migration to the cities (and South Africa) as lower fertility.

    It's like the different immigrant groups in Europe - on the surface the ones that are 2/3 male have a lower fertility rate than the ones which are 50/50 but it's just the disproportion messing with the stats.
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  • Column of Azeri tanks around the Talis region. Via Cassad. The past two days has seen some of the most intense fighting over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh since the 1994 ceasefire that froze the conflict. It was a typical post-Soviet tale: Illogically drawn up borders, stranded Armenians in the historically Armenian territory of Nagorno-Karabakh,...
  • I am wondering whether all these military comparisons between Azerbaijan and Armenia take the vastly different human capital between these two peoples into account. There are several theories of course whether brains or machinery triumph, but Armenians (IQ of 93 in PISA) have considerably more brains than Azerbaijanis (83) which could neutralize the petrodollar bought equipment of Azerbaijan.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    The commenter jimmyriddle posted this graph on another thread here:

    http://f1.s.qip.ru/8NLT3gzn.png

    It shows the number of scientists per 100k population of the various ethnicities of the Soviet Union in 1973. I commented on that graph here: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/impossibility-of-jewish-russophile/#comment-1376174

    Armenians were second. Azeris were 12th with a little more than half of the Armenians' per capita rate. The whole graph is fascinating.
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  • I came across this map of German performance in math, biology, physics, and chemistry in the IQB-Ländervergleich 2012, a test they hold once every few years in conjunction with PISA. With the sole exception of Berlin, which is close to rock bottom, the former GDR states along with Bavaria were consistently at the top of...
  • @Anatoly Karlin
    and central Poland (which is elevated by the stellar performance of Warsaw in PISA. The results of Warsaw rivalled Shanghai in 2012!).

    Meaning around 113? That's interesting, though not overly surprising.

    Did Poland have propiska/hukou system? If so, that would handily explain the cognitive clustering seen in Warsaw. And unlike Moscow with ~107 IQ, Warsaw's performance wouldn't be attenuated by 1-2 million high 80s IQ Caucasians and Central Asians.

    According to the “Society and demographics” part of the Warsaw Wikipedia article, there were restrictions:

    During the first years after the war, the population growth was c. 6%, so shortly the city started to suffer from the lack of flats and of areas for new houses. The first remedial measure was the Warsaw area enlargement (1951) – but the city authorities were still forced to introduce residency registration limitations: only the spouses and children of the permanent residents as well as some persons of public importance (like renowned specialists) were allowed to get the registration, hence halving the population growth in the following years. It also bolstered some kind of conviction among Poles that Varsovians thought of themselves as better only because they lived in the capital. Unfortunately this belief still lives on in Poland (although not as much as it used to be) – even though since 1990 there are no limitations to residency registration anymore.

    According to PISA 2012, the IQ of Warsaw indeed was 112. They don’t have data for individual cities though, but by city size in all countries, with the biggest category being cities of a million people or more, so if some countries only have one city of more than a million people, one can derive their IQ easily. The data shows niely how cognitive clustering in many countries happens in the big cities, the exception being several Western countries, where the cognitive elites cluster in the suburbs (US, UK, Germany…).

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  • @Stephen R. Diamond

    It’s quite revealing how regional IQ differences correlate very well with conservatism.
     
    Revealing of what?

    Revealing that this education leads to liberalism theory isn’t really true.

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  • It would be interesting to point out other pockets/regions of high intelligence (meaning rivaling or almost rivaling Eastern Asians) in non-East Asian settings and to compare them. PISA unfortunately doesn’t publish results for all nations regionally, but besides that it surely should be rewarding top look at Switzerland, Flanders and central Poland (which is elevated by the stellar performance of Warsaw in PISA. The results of Warsaw rivalled Shanghai in 2012!).

    I am also wondering how the regional distribution of intelligence in France or the UK would be like, but so far I have found nothing on France and only the rough subdivision in England, Scotland etc. for the UK.

    It’s quite revealing how regional IQ differences correlate very well with conservatism. Saxony and Bavaria are easily the two most conservative states in Germany, while our dumbest state, Bremen, has been ruled by the Social democrats since WWII.

    PS: The state differences in PISA refer to 2006, not 2009. 2006 unfortunately was the last year regional PISA results got published. Based on that, and previous results I used the deviations from the national mean to calculate average IQs for 2009/2012 by state:

    Bayern 104,9
    Sachsen 104,9
    Baden-Württemberg 103,4
    Thüringen 103,1
    Saarland 101,5
    Sachsen-Anhalt 101,4
    Rheinland-Pfalz 101,4
    Brandenburg 101,2
    Schleswig-Holstein 101,0
    Hessen 100,9
    Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 100,9
    Berlin 100,7
    Niedersachsen 100,4
    Nordrhein-Westfalen 100,2
    Hamburg 99,3
    Bremen 97,9

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    • Replies: @Stephen R. Diamond

    It’s quite revealing how regional IQ differences correlate very well with conservatism.
     
    Revealing of what?
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    and central Poland (which is elevated by the stellar performance of Warsaw in PISA. The results of Warsaw rivalled Shanghai in 2012!).

    Meaning around 113? That's interesting, though not overly surprising.

    Did Poland have propiska/hukou system? If so, that would handily explain the cognitive clustering seen in Warsaw. And unlike Moscow with ~107 IQ, Warsaw's performance wouldn't be attenuated by 1-2 million high 80s IQ Caucasians and Central Asians.
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  • The latest data from Top 500, a website that tracks the world's most powerful supercomputers, has pretty much confirmed this with the release of their November 2015 list. The world's most powerful supercomputer, the Tianhe-2 - a Chinese supercomputer, though made on American technology - has now maintained its place for 2.5 years in a...
  • @AKarlin

    Is there a clear hint on when Moore’s law ended for PCs?

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  • The NYT finally reports on the New Year's Eve gropefest in downtown Cologne. The Köln train station is kind of the front door of Germany for travelers coming from England and the Netherlands. I changed trains there in 1980 and had two minutes to step outside and gaze at in awe at the great cathedral,...
  • Cologne deserves more attention from all of us, since it is a mix of two things that won’t go well in the future:

    For one, Cologne is the major city with the highest share of Muslims in Germany, which is around 15%, three times the average in Germany and higher than in Berlin (8%), Hamburg (9%), Munich (10%), Frankfurt (14%), Stuttgart (9%) and Düsseldorf (8%). The share is lower than in European hotbeds of muslim immigration like Brussels, Birmingham or Marseille, where the share touches 25% but still.

    Secondly, Cologne is alongside Berlin one of the two capitals of gay culture in Germany.

    It will be very interesting to see how this turns out in the long run.

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  • The cultural and scientific achievements of Ancient Greece are so manifold that it is barely worth recounting them. Socrates, Plato and Aristotle laid the foundations of Western philosophy. Pythogoras, Euclid, and Archimedes launched mathematics as a disciple grounded on logic and proof, a break from the approximative techniques that had held sway in other civilizations...
  • All that makes me start to think of how high the average IQ was in medieval Europe (or in other historic settings, that is). Probably similar to the estimate for the Romans at 83?

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  • From the Wall Street Journal, one of those articles where the reporter starts out with the current party line, then undermines it with an abundance of distressing facts. The article has a perhaps overly sophisticated graph of birth rates using that 2015 U.N. Population Prospects data that I've been emphasizing so much in recent months....
  • @iSteveFan

    The only chance for Africa, in light of it’s IQ is to become the last hub of production for simple goods like clothing and other consumer goods. This will not only ensure a proper livelihood for the people there, but will also ensure that the continent gets urbanized and fertility gets brought down.
     
    This won't happen because it is cheaper to manufacture in China and ship the finished goods to Africa. And we all know that open border supporters from the pro-business wing can't fathom giving up a penny of profit. So they support a flood of immigrants into the First World to lower wages despite the fact it erodes the quality of life, and they support centralizing all production in a few places like China despite the fact that it guarantees places like Africa will never create enough jobs for the natives.

    At the moment it is indeed cheaper to produce in China, but that will change. Wages are increasing at breakneck speed in China and catch up with technology used in China with the cognitive abilities of the Chinese. Their average IQ of 105 or so will ensure they will become a full fledged developed country in 15 years or so.

    Much of the labor currently done in China will be automatized of course, but not all manufacturing can be automatized easily. What I am hoping is that these kind of menial, hard to automatize jobs will end up in Africa and stay there for good. This is their only hope.

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  • The only chance for Africa, in light of it’s IQ is to become the last hub of production for simple goods like clothing and other consumer goods. This will not only ensure a proper livelihood for the people there, but will also ensure that the continent gets urbanized and fertility gets brought down.

    Oh yeah, and about Nigeria. Without doubt it will become the most “interesting” country to watch in combination with Niger, the fastest growing country on earth. The Muslims in the north of Nigeria have a TFR of 7, like in Niger, but the Christians in the south only get around 4.5 children per woman. A short glimpse in Google Earth shows us that the Christian South of Nigeria can support much more people than the arid and dry north. It is only a matter of time until the extremely fast growing Muslim population of both Nigeria and Niger will develop expansionist ideas against the Christian south, and then the explosion happens.

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    • Replies: @iSteveFan

    The only chance for Africa, in light of it’s IQ is to become the last hub of production for simple goods like clothing and other consumer goods. This will not only ensure a proper livelihood for the people there, but will also ensure that the continent gets urbanized and fertility gets brought down.
     
    This won't happen because it is cheaper to manufacture in China and ship the finished goods to Africa. And we all know that open border supporters from the pro-business wing can't fathom giving up a penny of profit. So they support a flood of immigrants into the First World to lower wages despite the fact it erodes the quality of life, and they support centralizing all production in a few places like China despite the fact that it guarantees places like Africa will never create enough jobs for the natives.
    , @Ed
    Fulani herdsman from the North have been attacking farmers in the South, to gain access to grazing lands. Many have died. So looks like the push is on.

    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/11/oyo-fulani-herdsmen-farmers-in-fresh-collision-course/
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  • Commenter Hail notes that white women who identify more or less as Republicans have 18% more children than white women who identity more or less as Democrats: I think this is actually Completed Fertility, which is not exactly the same as Total Fertility Rate, but pretty close. Also, if you are looking at women 40...
  • @Whiskey
    Jannisary effect. Mass media, universities, convert kids of conservatives to uber liberal pc people. Fertility doesn't matter if you convert competitors.

    Only if you take moderate conservatives who have a rather shallow birth rate advantage over the dems anyway.

    Home schoolers have acknowledged that problem and school their often many children themselves. Their average fertility rate is between 3-4 children per woman, three times that of the San Franciscans. Homeschooling makes sure that these children don’t fall from conservatism.

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  • Fertility differences can become even more extreme if you look at the fringes of the political spectrum. Compare for example the most “liberal” county (city of San Francisco) with the most conservative county (Utah county, or in other words the Provo-Orem area).

    While the TFR in SF is a mere 1.21 children per women (and has been that low for almost 20 years now), fertility in Utah County is 2.75, more than double that. Utah County even had a TFR of more than 3 during the 2002-2007 period.

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  • Here are some recent videos of Russian bombings of Islamic state oil infrastructure (LOL at the guy getting out of Dodge at 0:25). And a bombing of a nicely arraigned line of oil tankers: All of which raises a rather obvious question: If this is easy as easy as shooting fish in a barrel -...
  • @Kamran
    Biopolitics is indeed the future. And IQ is the only thing that matters. Which is why I'm focussing on creating a plan to increase the IQ of my country Turkey, by a secret sterilization program.

    I invite all those who have knowledge of policy to aid me in this endeavour.

    First of all you should get rid of the high fertility Kurdish areas, then work on increasing female labor force participation, especially in the lower classes. That will lower low class fertility and thus massively decrease the “dumbing down speed”.

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  • The Flynn effect has reversed in terms of spatial IQ, according to a big recent meta-study by Jakob Pietschnig and Georg Gittler. James Thompson has a good summary in Deutschland über alles, dann unter allen? Below is the version of the graph that has been corrected for age, sex, and sample time. The all time...
  • The findings come rather surprizing to me and I am always sceptical of using these low N studies to make out trends.

    Using fertility by education data from the Wittgenstein database, my estimate for the intrinsic IQ loss over the next generation is 1.0. That of course doesn’t take migration into account and only incorporates differences in fertility rates by education classes. Contrary to the past, these fertility rates don’t differ that much anymore. University educated women in Germany have a TFR of 1.3, vs. 1.45 for medium educated women and 1.6 for the least educated.

    Fertility driven IQ losses per generation for other countries:

    Belgium and Finland: 0 (the best scoring countries in the world, no dysgenic fertility here, rest of Scandinavia not far behind)

    Canada: -0.4
    Indonesia: -0.6 (best scoring developing country)
    Japan: -0.8
    UK: -1.0
    Germany: -1.0
    Italy: -1.2
    China: -1.3
    France: -1.3 (France has a very fertile underclass compared to the UK or Germany)
    South Korea: -1.4
    Singapore: -1.4 (the only country openly following eugenic fertility policies, with dismal results it seems)
    Australia: -1.6
    USA: -1.7
    Russia: -1.8
    Poland: -2.2
    Romania: -2.9 (worst scoring European country, everyone knows why)
    India: -3.2
    Mexico: -3.3
    Nigeria: -3.4
    Iran: -3.6
    Turkey: -3.6
    Brazil: -3.9 (worst scoring major country, educated women in Brazil have extremely few children (1.2 on average))
    Afghanistan: -5.1 (worst scoring country on earth)

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  • So now that I'm blogging more or less regularly again I've been thinking of setting up a bit more of a structured schedule. Probably it will be minor posts interspersed throughout the week, with a compendium of my best Ask.fm questions and major posts (called Big Posts) every Thursday or Friday which will (generally) run...
  • To comment on the question “What developed country has the most eugenic fertility? What about the least? My observation is that Britain has the most dysgenic but I haven’t seen the data? Where does America fit in there? ”

    As I have played a bit with the Wittgenstein database, I calculated the dysgenic trend for every country by using several assumptions (perfect correlation between IQ and the level of education, standard deviation for the IQ of 15 in all countries, all children will attain the same level of education as their parents). Since the first assumption is especially not really true for developing countries (still a lot of undiscovered talens roam around the woods or work as farmers), the dysgenics especially for the poor countries might be overstated.

    Anyway, here’s the map for the projected generational loss in average IQ:

    The strongest dysgenic trend among developed countries is in Israel (probably to high Arab fertility), followed by the US, HK/Macao and the Baltics. Poland isn’t developed yet, but also has a comparably strong dysgenic trend.

    The least dysgenic fertility is in Belgium (where it’s actually eugenic from the data), Scandinavia and Canada. Japan and Taiwan also have rather weak dysgenics. Scandinavia and Belgium though have lots of low-IQ immigration.

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  • Edited, 4/11/15 3/17/14. See below! Blogger "Agnostic" over at Dusk in Autumn has a post up about the regional variation in Germany (Oktoberfest, lederhosen, dirndls and Germany's cultural fault-line). As I've noted in my posts on the American nations (most recently here, see the category here), Germany has been one of the most important countries...
  • Apart from the “dirt porn” and “ctatty” the stereotypes seem to be right to me (I am a German).

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