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Prediction

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Last year, I resumed my New Year's tradition of posting annual predictions. I recently analyzed the success rate of those predictions for 2016, the year when meme magic became real. Here are my predictions for 2017: No major conflict (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia that involves China and/or the US: 95%. US will not... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb's idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about what has come to be known as The Current Year. Like Scott Alexander, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right... Read More
Final EC Prediction - Will be very happy to be wrong. I do think there is a Shy Trumpist factor, which will really make itself felt in rustbelt Michigan, but I fear that it might be canceled out by higher Hispanic turnout, especially in Florida and Nevada. The person who likes to bomb a couple... Read More
I like predictions. Part of that is related to my passion for quantifying everything, but another is philosophical, and borne of my antipathy towards charlatanism (I am extremely sympathetic to N.N. Taleb on this issue). In 2005, U.C. Berkeley psychologist Philip Tetlock published a study on expert fallibility spanning 18 years, 284 experts and 82,361... Read More
I have always loved falsifiable predictions. Let's look at some that Ukrainian policians have made for Ukraine. President Leonid Kravchuk, 1991: In 10 years, we will become the richest country in Europe. We will be a second France! President Viktor Yushchenko, 2004: In 10 years, we will live like Poland! Leader of the Opposition and... Read More
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.