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Yesterday there was another poll on the Russian Presidential elections in 2018, this time from FOM (although state-owned, my impression is that they aren't any less accurate than the independent - and somewhat oppositionist - Levada). Adjusting for undecideds/no shows, the results if elections were to be held tomorrow are as follows: Putin - 84%,... Read More
Assuming that it will be just between these four, I think it's going to go something like this: Note that Sobchak and any [liberal candidate] can be substituted for Navalny. (Also TBH, I think Navalny has a chance of getting 10% - see below). If other candidates (but not Navalny) run, for instance, Grigory Yavlinsky... Read More
In my opinion, almost certainly yes (quantified: 90%. In line with PredictIt). Just to get that clear off the bat. But neither is it an absolutely foregone conclusion. For instance, see this recent "scoop" from The Independent's Oliver Carroll: The reason "scoop" is in apostrophes is that Putin's tiredness is hardly new to the Moscow... Read More
Recent Rasmussen poll: I wrote about this as a return to pre-Soviet norms back in February: No, this doesn't appear to be on account of Republican/conservative infatuation with Putler, as /r/politics and the Blue Checkmarks would have you believe. Op
On September 10 there was a round of gubernatorial elections in Russia, as well as elections to local councils in Moscow. There's a lot of confusion on account of whether it was a victory for United Russia. On the one hand, the low turnout - which traditionally favors more motivated liberals - allowed them to... Read More
The Russia wide protests organized by Navalny on June 12 were a flop. This was not unexpected, given the lack of enthusiasm on social networks - in Moscow, there were 20% fewer people expressing interest in going to this event relative to the March 26th protest on Facebook. The earlier event had translated into 8,000... Read More
I don't have much to add to my previous posts on this matter: The French Elections 2017 (Round One) Le Pen Is Out of Ink The French Blackpill, Quantified Stark Truth: On the French Elections Global Opinion of Marine Le Pen An n=8,200 Ipsos poll from May 5 gave Emmanual Macron 63% to Le Pen's... Read More
The other day a Levada poll was released showing an apparently lackluster performance by Navalny in a hypothetical Presidential race against Putin and the other candidates. If there were elections on the coming Sunday, who would you vote for? (The figures below exclude those said they don't know, or don't intend to vote). Apr13 Apr14... Read More
A couple of weeks back I had an AMA (Ask Me Anything) with /r/Russia. Direct link: Hi /r/Russia! Anatoly Karlin, writer for The Unz Review / Анатолий Карлин, "пейсатель" о России, геополитике. AMA! Thought I would reprint some of the questions and answers there so that they don't vanish into the digital ether. *** You... Read More
Probably unintentionally, but video, subtly titled "Hitler 1945/Navalny 2018," basically argues that if you oppose Medvedev's corruption and the importation of infinity Moslems into Russia then you are Hitler. Its current Dislikes to Likes ratio is at around 10. According to Navalny himself, the man behind the video is Sergey Kiriyenko, the First Deputy Chief... Read More
On March 15, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, headed by Alexander Turchinov, a hardliner who launched the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" as the interim President after Euromaidan, signed off on the legalization of the Donbass blockade, and transmitted a request to Ukraine's Central Bank to finalize a plan to put sanctions on Russian banks... Read More
This is one beautiful defenestration: In the Oct. 10, 2016 call, from right after the Access Hollywood tape of Trump was leaked in the weeks leading up to the election, Ryan does not specify that he will never defend Trump on just the Access Hollywood tape—he says clearly he is done with Trump altogether. “I... Read More
This isn't even half of it. For instance, last July, there was is completely correct, of course. He is also reasonably sane on Russia, at one point pointing out that if Putin really was a dictator, he'd have had Kasparov whacked a long time ago. In reality, as I pointed out, life for opposition minded... Read More
I know Preet Bharara for two things: (1) Prosecuting Viktor Bout, who didn't do nothing wrong. He was an equal opportunity arms' trader who sold to everyone, even to the US in support of its Middle East misadventures. Then he made one "sale" to the wrong people, was arrested in the US puppet state Thailand,... Read More
Up until very recently, Russia was viewed more favorably by the Liberals/Left than conservatives in the US. Many of the conservatives were people who had grown up at the height of the Cold War, saw the letters KGB in Putin's eyes like McCain, and tended to suffer from a bad case of your brain on... Read More
Russian human rights lawyer Matthew Tszen speculates: I still think it was organized largely after the fact by a panicking Soros, but this is an interesting theory. It would tie in well with my speculations that a great deal of fireworks - both literal and figurative - were painstakingly choreographed to go off on Hillary... Read More
Robert Stark has just released his latest podcast in which we discussed all sorts of topics including My American Decade along with co-host "PillEater." http://www.starktruthradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Anatoly-Karlin-Futurism.mp3 Robert Stark is a journalist who specializes in interviewing various interesting figures from the Alt fringes. So you could I suppose view him as The Unz Review on podcasts. Here... Read More
Trump has fulfilled the prophesies of Kek. That was clear pretty early on, as soon as it became clear he was winning Florida and the markets started tumbling as they realized the false song of globalism was about to end. That is because Trump and his protectionist platform was almost certainly going to perform much... Read More
Final EC Prediction - Will be very happy to be wrong. I do think there is a Shy Trumpist factor, which will really make itself felt in rustbelt Michigan, but I fear that it might be canceled out by higher Hispanic turnout, especially in Florida and Nevada. The person who likes to bomb a couple... Read More
... Well, it doesn't have quite the ring of the better known poem that, having once landed Erdogan in jail, has now ensured his survival. So people are now asking: Without Erdogan's closer ties to a religion far more passionary than Orthodox Christianity, without his allegedly superior democratic credentials, would anyone actually bother out to... Read More
Here are my US Presidential elections of 2016 results from what is possibly the most comprehensive quiz/polling site on the issue: I have to say that this tool is quite accurate. For instance, in my 2012 results, it identified Barack Obama as the (realistically) best candidate I could support. If I was 100% American I... Read More
It is very easy to be pessimistic about the results of the just concluded regional French elections, in which the Front National failed to win a single to the Socialists throwing multiple regions in Houellebecqian manner, the obvious big victor were The Republicans of Nicolas "Le Métissage Obligatoire" Sarkozy. Surely in the wake of the... Read More
"British Society Needs A Single Culture, Not The Failed Policy Of Multiculturalism"
The UK will be holding its general elections on May 7th, potentially - probably, if the opinion polls are anything to go by - bringing to an end the past five years of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. Neither the Conservatives, nor Labour - the UK's two main parties - are projected to get anywhere... Read More
I have no idea what possessed Putin. Did he think that it would spare him Western criticism in the run-up to Sochi? Of course not. Khodorkovsky was on the back-burner. LGBT rights are West's stick du jour to beat up on Russia. Did he think it would improve the legal and investment climate? I sure... Read More
In response to Putin's (in)famous NYT op-ed, McCain told CNN he'd love to reciprocate on Pravda. He was probably surprised when they agreed to it - but he may not have gotten quite what he expected, according to Pravda.ru's chief Vadim Gorshenin. The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Pravda.ru Internet-media holding Vadim... Read More
1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny's support - among those who indicated a clear preference for one... Read More
According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny's performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried out at the doors of the election stations... Read More
What striking about Syria is how so many people insist on speaking about it in profoundly moralistic, Manichaean terms. This is complete nonsense, given that its civil war isn't a showdown between democracy and dictatorship, but an ethnic and religious conflict. Here's a more realistic guide: The rhetoric: He kills his own people! He is... Read More
A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny's percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background - Sobyanin vs. Navalny in... Read More
Repost of Alexander Mercouris' comments at Mark Chapman's blog and The Russia Debate forum. The original compilation is posted at Mercouris' blog. PS. Originally, this space hosted just one of Mercouris' comments. Now that he has taken the trouble to gather up his output, the least I could do is update it and try to... Read More
It is wrong to glamorize a political hustler with five criminal cases against him, says the National Bolshevik leader - who claims street cred on account of having done real time. Eduard Limonov on why Navalny became a hero of the bourgeoisie. I pay a lot of attention to Navalny. I do. In so far... Read More
Why was there no bribery incidence data for Russia in Transparency International's international survey of 2013? Andrey Kamenetsky at Odnako connects the dots to argue that it was simply because the results were too inconvenient to serve as propaganda. Dear Readers! In July there took place two major crashes in Russia. Both of them were... Read More
There has been some confusion about Navalny's poll ratings due to the varying timing, phrasing, and options in the polls on the matter. The Russian Spectrum tries to clear things up. Below is a summary of comparable polls on this subject by date from two of Russia's three biggest polling agencies: The private Levada Center,... Read More
Earlier today, Navalny received a custodial sentence of five years for the theft of 15 million rubles ($500,000) worth of timber from Kirovles. It is simply not true to say that there was "no case" against Navalny, as the Western and Russian liberal media insists on doing. There is wiretap evidence and witness testimony that... Read More
With the registration period over, there are now six candidates left to compete for the position of Mayor of Moscow in the coming city elections. Who will Muscovites vote for? Which of the following candidates are you prepared to vote for in the upcoming Moscow elections on 8 September? Out of all Muscovites ...who intend... Read More
Moskovsky Komsomolets' Dmitry Katorzhnov takes a walk around Moscow to ask people what they feel about Navalny. The impressions he gets don't promise anything good for his campaign. Half of the respondents do not intend to go to the polls anyhow. On Wednesday, July 10 Alexey Navalny will carry a Moscow City Election Committee paper... Read More
(1) Just as with Manning, it is beyond dispute that Snowden broke US law. As such, the US government is perfectly entitled to try to apprehend him (on its own soil), request his extradition, and prosecute him. This is quite perpendicular to whether Snowden's leaks were morally "justified" or not. In some sense, they were.... Read More
I will be going on a "working vacation" this Sunday, so I'm publishing my weekly contribution to VoR/US-Russia experts panel early: Okay, let's get one thing clear from the get go: The Russian law requiring NGOs to declare themselves "foreign agents" if they engage in political activities and receive financing from abroad, is not illegitimate.... Read More
Apparently he fled to France after senior "systemic liberal" sources in the government told him he was not safe staying in Russia. So he played it safe. Interpretations about. The return of Stalinism; a new critical phase in the siloviki vs. civiliki clan war; Putin's vindictiveness against a supporter of Khodorkovsky. The only problem, at... Read More
When they are fed to other bureaucrats. Or so argues Mikhail Rostovsky in an op-ed for Moskovskij Komsomolets, in analyzing the resignations of Surkov and Alexei Chesnakov. Solve this riddle. What does it mean when you hear the clatter of plates, knives, and forks, loud chomping noises, and the desperate shrieks of the devoured: "I'm... Read More
I think the real situation is somewhere in between the Kremlin's position and Mark Adomanis' and the rest of the Western and Russian liberal media's alarmism. So as far as this is concerned, I really do think Gudkov is exaggerating, not to even speak of the inevitable and hysterical comparisons to Stalinism cropping up in... Read More
Writing in Novaya Gazeta, Andrei Vladimirovich Kolesnikov argues that the branding of the opinion pollster Levada Center as a "foreign agent" marks Russia's return to the bad old days of Lysenkoism. Levada Center is being destroyed with Stalinist methods. Sociological data is dope for the present-day vlast. She looks at sociological reports just like a... Read More
In an interview with Kommersant's Ksenia Turkova, the director of the Levada Center Lev Gudkov argues that opinion polling isn't a political activity - and as such, that his organization is not a "foreign agent." The opinion polling agency Levada Center may cease to exist. The sociologists have received a warning from the Prosecutor's office,... Read More
In which Russian writer Dmitry Bykov compares the Russian opposition to Pugacheva, and God - for that is what most concerns Russians, and not the trivialities they typically discuss. Just about the same thing has happened to the Russian opposition as has happened to the Russian intelligentsia: it has been accused of every mortal sin;... Read More
Russian blogger Anton Nossik speculates on why Ryan Fogle's attempts to recruit Russian intelligence officers seemed to be so amateurish. In Soviet times, there was the following anecdote: An American spends 15 years at spying school getting ready to infiltrate the deep Soviet rear. He studies the Black Earth dialects, memorizes local maps, the manner... Read More
Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the liberal Yabloko party and political old-timer, argues in a Vedomosti editorial that the Kremlin's crackdown on NGOs is not only ethically wrong but ultimately self-crippling. Unfortunately, the Russian nomenklatura has an exceedingly poor understanding of why we need independent public organizations, and the meaning of citizen control and social feedbacks.... Read More
In one of the most scandalous op-eds of the year, KP's Ulyana Skoybeda takes the liberal Leonid Gozman to task for equating SMERSH with the SS. The original byline was later toned down, and the author offered a partial - and some insist, halfhearted - apology. At times, one regrets that the Nazis didn't make... Read More
Based on multiple interviews with high-placed sources, Vedomosti's Lilia Biryukova, Maxim Glikin, and Maxim Tovkailo compile four major theories to explain Surkov's resignation last Wednesday: Was it a simple matter of under-performance, or are there deeper currents to the story? On Wednesday, President Putin acceded to the resignation request of Deputy Prime Minister and Chief... Read More
From a Freedom House publication:
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.