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Certainly seems so to me. AltRight.com's Vincent Law was pretty optimistic at the start of 2017: "Overall assessment of the situation: Feels great, man." Only problem is - it appears that he either left them or was fired, which means that AltRight.com is no longer even worth following (Greg Hood is good but posts too... Read More
Meddling in the Russian elections. I voted for Zhirinovsky on March 18, 2018. Have said all there is to say on that in these articles: An Analysis of Zhirinovsky's Program Russia Elections 2018: Elections as Regime Referendums Putin 2018: The Scorecard With that out of the way, let's move on to the bigger picture. PS.... Read More
Quick recap of developments since the last update. First half consisted of boring economic and political stuff (e.g. increasing GDP by 50% over the next 6 years, implying 7% growth - as realistic as his promise to create 25 million hi-tech jobs last year). Nobody really cares about this. In the second half, wearing his... Read More
How is the Russian media covering the elections? I don't watch TV, so I can't give any personal impressions, but fortunately there are other people to do that in succinct graphical format. Color scheme is constant: Grudinin, Putin, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky, Titov, Baburin, Sobchak. Total number of media mentions in segments about the elections. Average number... Read More
First polls are in with all eight of the official candidates. There are no surprises. Results of VCIOM and FOM polls, both from Feb 11 (adjusting for don't knows, won't votes, etc.): VCIOM FOM Putin 82.3% 84.2% Zhirinovsky 6.3% 6.8% Grudinin 8.4% 6.8% Sobchak 1.2% 1.1% Yavlinsky 0.9% 0.6% Titov 0.2% 0.1% Suraykin 0.1% 0.1%... Read More
So the final official bulletin was confirmed a few days ago. Here are the candidates: Has an interesting history: Was elected a people's deputy in the Supreme Soviet of Russia in 1990, and by early 1991 had become the leading contender to become its Chairman, beating out Ruslan Khasbulatov in the first round; then came... Read More
I am not aware of any active Russian political predictions markets, apart from "Will Vladimir Putin be president of Russia at the end of 2018?" at PredictIt (currently at 93% FWIW). I suppose there are three main reasons for this: 1. Interesting American fads only reach Russia with a lag time of several times, if... Read More
Navalny claimed that the state-owned pollsters VCIOM were artificially inflating Putin's figures, so his Anti-Corruption Fund will start releasing their own weekly polls, the first of which has just been released in Navalny's latest video address. Reminder that Putin got 66% in the last FOM poll, and 73% in the last VCIOM poll. FBK poll:... Read More
Turnout might be much lower than even the record low (60%) than I posited. Leonid Bershidsky in a recent article: Campaigning from Putin has been lackluster to say the least. Main development is that the campaign website has finally been launched ( ). At the time Bershidsky wrote his post, it didn't even have a... Read More
After the surprise Communist candidacy of Pavel Grudinin, the main question was always going to be whether he would merely inherit Zyuganov's ratings - or climb well above them by invigorating Russians with the prospect of a new face in politics. We had to wait a couple of weeks longer than usual due to the... Read More
Conventional wisdom on the Russian elections: Positive interpretation: Russian elections give Russians more real ideological choice (conservative centrists, Communists, nationalists, liberals) than American ones (conservative neoliberals, liberal neoliberals). Negative interpretation: Putin and the party of power are assured of winning through overwhelming administrative resources, state media, and a side of electoral fraud. The other parties... Read More
Latest development: The KPRF has nominated 57 year old Pavel Grudinin as its candidate. This is the first time that the KPRF has gone with someone other than old warhorse Zyuganov since 2004, when Nikolay Kharitonov got an unimpressive 13.8% in the Presidential elections. Coming from a blue-collar background, Grudinin graduated from an agricultural engineering... Read More
Yesterday there was another poll on the Russian Presidential elections in 2018, this time from FOM (although state-owned, my impression is that they aren't any less accurate than the independent - and somewhat oppositionist - Levada). Adjusting for undecideds/no shows, the results if elections were to be held tomorrow are as follows: Putin - 84%,... Read More
Assuming that it will be just between these four, I think it's going to go something like this: Note that Sobchak and any [liberal candidate] can be substituted for Navalny. (Also TBH, I think Navalny has a chance of getting 10% - see below). If other candidates (but not Navalny) run, for instance, Grigory Yavlinsky... Read More
In my opinion, almost certainly yes (quantified: 90%. In line with PredictIt). Just to get that clear off the bat. But neither is it an absolutely foregone conclusion. For instance, see this recent "scoop" from The Independent's Oliver Carroll: The reason "scoop" is in apostrophes is that Putin's tiredness is hardly new to the Moscow... Read More
Recent Rasmussen poll: I wrote about this as a return to pre-Soviet norms back in February: No, this doesn't appear to be on account of Republican/conservative infatuation with Putler, as /r/politics and the Blue Checkmarks would have you believe. Op
On September 10 there was a round of gubernatorial elections in Russia, as well as elections to local councils in Moscow. There's a lot of confusion on account of whether it was a victory for United Russia. On the one hand, the low turnout - which traditionally favors more motivated liberals - allowed them to... Read More
The Russia wide protests organized by Navalny on June 12 were a flop. This was not unexpected, given the lack of enthusiasm on social networks - in Moscow, there were 20% fewer people expressing interest in going to this event relative to the March 26th protest on Facebook. The earlier event had translated into 8,000... Read More
I don't have much to add to my previous posts on this matter: The French Elections 2017 (Round One) Le Pen Is Out of Ink The French Blackpill, Quantified Stark Truth: On the French Elections Global Opinion of Marine Le Pen An n=8,200 Ipsos poll from May 5 gave Emmanual Macron 63% to Le Pen's... Read More
The other day a Levada poll was released showing an apparently lackluster performance by Navalny in a hypothetical Presidential race against Putin and the other candidates. If there were elections on the coming Sunday, who would you vote for? (The figures below exclude those said they don't know, or don't intend to vote). Apr13 Apr14... Read More
A couple of weeks back I had an AMA (Ask Me Anything) with /r/Russia. Direct link: Hi /r/Russia! Anatoly Karlin, writer for The Unz Review / Анатолий Карлин, "пейсатель" о России, геополитике. AMA! Thought I would reprint some of the questions and answers there so that they don't vanish into the digital ether. *** You... Read More
Probably unintentionally, but still. The video, subtly titled "Hitler 1945/Navalny 2018," basically argues that if you oppose Medvedev's corruption and the importation of infinity Moslems into Russia then you are Hitler. Its current Dislikes to Likes ratio is at around 10. According to Navalny himself, the man behind the video is Sergey Kiriyenko, the First... Read More
On March 15, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, headed by Alexander Turchinov, a hardliner who launched the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" as the interim President after Euromaidan, signed off on the legalization of the Donbass blockade, and transmitted a request to Ukraine's Central Bank to finalize a plan to put sanctions on Russian banks... Read More
This is one beautiful defenestration: In the Oct. 10, 2016 call, from right after the Access Hollywood tape of Trump was leaked in the weeks leading up to the election, Ryan does not specify that he will never defend Trump on just the Access Hollywood tape—he says clearly he is done with Trump altogether. “I... Read More
This isn't even half of it. For instance, last July, there was this: He is completely correct, of course. He is also reasonably sane on Russia, at one point pointing out that if Putin really was a dictator, he'd have had Kasparov whacked a long time ago. In reality, as I pointed out, life for... Read More
I know Preet Bharara for two things: (1) Prosecuting Viktor Bout, who didn't do nothing wrong. He was an equal opportunity arms' trader who sold to everyone, even to the US in support of its Middle East misadventures. Then he made one "sale" to the wrong people, was arrested in the US puppet state Thailand,... Read More
Up until very recently, Russia was viewed more favorably by the Liberals/Left than conservatives in the US. Many of the conservatives were people who had grown up at the height of the Cold War, saw the letters KGB in Putin's eyes like McCain, and tended to suffer from a bad case of your brain on... Read More
Russian human rights lawyer Matthew Tszen speculates: I still think it was organized largely after the fact by a panicking Soros, but this is an interesting theory. It would tie in well with my speculations that a great deal of fireworks - both literal and figurative - were painstakingly choreographed to go off on Hillary... Read More
Robert Stark has just released his latest podcast in which we discussed all sorts of topics including My American Decade along with co-host "PillEater." Robert Stark is a journalist who specializes in interviewing various interesting figures from the Alt fringes. So you could I suppose view him as The Unz Review on podcasts. Here are... Read More
Trump has fulfilled the prophesies of Kek. That was clear pretty early on, as soon as it became clear he was winning Florida and the markets started tumbling as they realized the false song of globalism was about to end. That is because Trump and his protectionist platform was almost certainly going to perform much... Read More
Final EC Prediction - Will be very happy to be wrong. I do think there is a Shy Trumpist factor, which will really make itself felt in rustbelt Michigan, but I fear that it might be canceled out by higher Hispanic turnout, especially in Florida and Nevada. The person who likes to bomb a couple... Read More
... Well, it doesn't have quite the ring of the better known poem that, having once landed Erdogan in jail, has now ensured his survival. So people are now asking: Without Erdogan's closer ties to a religion far more passionary than Orthodox Christianity, without his allegedly superior democratic credentials, would anyone actually bother out to... Read More
Here are my US Presidential elections of 2016 results from what is possibly the most comprehensive quiz/polling site on the issue: I have to say that this tool is quite accurate. For instance, in my 2012 results, it identified Barack Obama as the (realistically) best candidate I could support. If I was 100% American I... Read More
It is very easy to be pessimistic about the results of the just concluded regional French elections, in which the Front National failed to win a single region. Thanks to the Socialists throwing multiple regions in Houellebecqian manner, the obvious big victor were The Republicans of Nicolas "Le Métissage Obligatoire" Sarkozy. Surely in the wake... Read More
"British Society Needs A Single Culture, Not The Failed Policy Of Multiculturalism"
The UK will be holding its general elections on May 7th, potentially - probably, if the opinion polls are anything to go by - bringing to an end the past five years of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. Neither the Conservatives, nor Labour - the UK's two main parties - are projected to get anywhere... Read More
I have no idea what possessed Putin. Did he think that it would spare him Western criticism in the run-up to Sochi? Of course not. Khodorkovsky was on the back-burner. LGBT rights are West's stick du jour to beat up on Russia. Did he think it would improve the legal and investment climate? I sure... Read More
In response to Putin's (in)famous NYT op-ed, McCain told CNN he'd love to reciprocate on Pravda. He was probably surprised when they agreed to it - but he may not have gotten quite what he expected, according to Pravda.ru's chief Vadim Gorshenin. The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Pravda.ru Internet-media holding Vadim... Read More
1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny's support - among those who indicated a clear preference for one... Read More
According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny's performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried out at the doors of the election stations... Read More
What striking about Syria is how so many people insist on speaking about it in profoundly moralistic, Manichaean terms. This is complete nonsense, given that its civil war isn't a showdown between democracy and dictatorship, but an ethnic and religious conflict. Here's a more realistic guide: The rhetoric: He kills his own people! He is... Read More
A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny's percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background - Sobyanin vs. Navalny in... Read More
Repost of Alexander Mercouris' comments at Mark Chapman's blog and The Russia Debate forum. The original compilation is posted at Mercouris' blog. PS. Originally, this space hosted just one of Mercouris' comments. Now that he has taken the trouble to gather up his output, the least I could do is update it and try to... Read More
It is wrong to glamorize a political hustler with five criminal cases against him, says the National Bolshevik leader - who claims street cred on account of having done real time. Eduard Limonov on why Navalny became a hero of the bourgeoisie. I pay a lot of attention to Navalny. I do. In so far... Read More
Why was there no bribery incidence data for Russia in Transparency International's international survey of 2013? Andrey Kamenetsky at Odnako connects the dots to argue that it was simply because the results were too inconvenient to serve as propaganda. Dear Readers! In July there took place two major crashes in Russia. Both of them were... Read More
There has been some confusion about Navalny's poll ratings due to the varying timing, phrasing, and options in the polls on the matter. The Russian Spectrum tries to clear things up. Below is a summary of comparable polls on this subject by date from two of Russia's three biggest polling agencies: The private Levada Center,... Read More
Earlier today, Navalny received a custodial sentence of five years for the theft of 15 million rubles ($500,000) worth of timber from Kirovles. It is simply not true to say that there was "no case" against Navalny, as the Western and Russian liberal media insists on doing. There is wiretap evidence and witness testimony that... Read More
With the registration period over, there are now six candidates left to compete for the position of Mayor of Moscow in the coming city elections. Who will Muscovites vote for? Which of the following candidates are you prepared to vote for in the upcoming Moscow elections on 8 September? Out of all Muscovites ...who intend... Read More
Moskovsky Komsomolets' Dmitry Katorzhnov takes a walk around Moscow to ask people what they feel about Navalny. The impressions he gets don't promise anything good for his campaign. Half of the respondents do not intend to go to the polls anyhow. On Wednesday, July 10 Alexey Navalny will carry a Moscow City Election Committee paper... Read More
(1) Just as with Manning, it is beyond dispute that Snowden broke US law. As such, the US government is perfectly entitled to try to apprehend him (on its own soil), request his extradition, and prosecute him. This is quite perpendicular to whether Snowden's leaks were morally "justified" or not. In some sense, they were.... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.