The Unz Review - Mobile
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
Show by  
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>
 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
/
Elections

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New Reply
Yet more evidence for the theory that Communism "deep froze" social attitudes. Now yes, you can rejoinder with a comparison to Nazi voting patterns. But look... 1. The borders of the former DDR are very cleanly delineated. The AfD's share of the vote there ranged from 19% in Mecklenburg-Vorprommern to 27% in Saxony. In contrast,... Read More
In my coverage of the French elections, I've been vaccilating between optimism and pessimism. Obviously, Le Pen's result - 34% of the vote - was unprecedentedly good, and her popularity seemed to be especially strong amongst French youth. On the other hand, it was perhaps not as good a result as could have been expected,... Read More
So the new President of the Fifth Republic is a cocaine-snorting, Bilderberg-attending, Rothschild bank-employed "outsider" and bisexual gigolo with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands who believes there is no such as French culture (but let's import infinity Moslems just to make sure). We are reaching levels of globalism that shouldn't even be possible! ***... Read More
I don't have much to add to my previous posts on this matter: The French Elections 2017 (Round One) Le Pen Is Out of Ink The French Blackpill, Quantified Stark Truth: On the French Elections Global Opinion of Marine Le Pen An n=8,200 Ipsos poll from May 5 gave Emmanual Macron 63% to Le Pen's... Read More
I haven't been able to locate any international surveys on Macron vs. Le pen like there were for Trump, unsurprisingly so, since France is after all less important than the US. Still, I have been able to find polls from Germany, Russia, and the UK. *** According to a ZDF poll of who would be... Read More
My latest podcast with Robert Stark, co-host and proponent of Asian-Aryanism pilleater, and Alt Right legend Guillaume Durocher, who has written for Counter-Currents, Radix, and Occidental Observer. We mostly talked about the French elections and French demographics. Here's a link: http://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=4467 http://www.starktruthradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/French-Election.mp3 The final election round between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron The French... Read More
One of the reasons that I consider the results of these elections to have been strongly disappointing for the Front National is that it represents not just a stunting but a reversal of their upwards trend since the late 2000s. For instance, back in December 2015, the Front National almost doubled their share of the... Read More
france-elections-2017-whos-who
François Hollande, widely considered to be a failure with single digit approval ratings, has - unusually for French politics - decided not to run for a second term. The polls are now split almost evenly between four canditates: The neoliberal Emmanuel Macron; the hard left Jean-Luc Mélenchon; the conservative François Fillon; and the nationalist Marine... Read More
The results are in and YES has won a narrow 51.4% victory in the Turkish referendum on making the country into a Presidential republic. This map I found (via Turkish Wikipedia) is the only one to show regional gradations. It shows the percentage of people voting NO. It is electorally very typical for Turkey, which... Read More
I realize everyone is obsessed with North Kora right now, but the Turkish referendum that is set for April 16 may turn out to be even more significant. Erdogan's AKP and the MHP nationalists have proposed a set of amendments to the Turkish constitution that would remove the office of the Prime Minister, annul a... Read More
So this was pretty bad. Wilders' PVV did increase its share of the vote by 3% points relative to the last elections, but considering the hopes and fears getting pum pumped up, this was certainly a defeat for populism - as Hollande, Merkel, Juncker, Macron, and all the other Respectable Politicians recognized as they rushed... Read More
Simon Hix has published graphs showing the percentage share accruing to different ideological families in European elections since 1918. The first thing that strikes one is how constant things have been, all things considered. There was a Radical Right spike in the early 1930s, and a longer-term Radical Left resurgence following the war that petered... Read More
As I've pointed out, support for the pro-Western agenda in Russia is highly circumscribed, usually in the low single digits, never higher than 10%. However, much like with divisions in Europe, Britain, and the US - where the globalist agenda (HRC, "Stay," etc) are supported by multinational and cosmpolitan rich elites in the big cities... Read More
(1) United Russia was polling at around 40% according to different pollsters (both state-owned FOM and VCIOM, as well as independent Levada) in the run-up to the elections. However, adjusting for undecideds would raise it to 55%. This is in line with United Russia's official tally of 54.14%. That said, it should be noted that... Read More
Unless there is a truly stunning reversal soon, a victory for Remain is increasingly looking to be mathematically impossible. England outside London is voting 60% Leave. The two biggest Remain hotspots, London and Scotland, do not have the numbers to make up for it. Meanwhile, Wales and Northern Ireland are too evenly divided and too... Read More
Source: Ben Garrison - Abandon Ship In recent days the Brexit debate has suddenly gone from boring to interesting, with opinion polls swinging from a comfortable lead for Remain to a neck and neck race between staying in and leaving the EU. One of the most recent polls has even seen Leave take a ten... Read More
An absolute majority - 51.5% - of French policemen and soldiers planned to vote for the Front National in the recent regional elections, according to a poll by CEVIPOF. This is far more impressive than the oft quoted 20% of Greek policemen who support Golden Dawn (though to be sure Golden Dawn is far more... Read More
Here are my US Presidential elections of 2016 results from what is possibly the most comprehensive quiz/polling site on the issue: I have to say that this tool is quite accurate. For instance, in my 2012 results, it identified Barack Obama as the (realistically) best candidate I could support. If I was 100% American I... Read More
The map above (adapted from Wikipedia) shows the changes in Syriza's and New Democracy's electoral fortunes between the elections in January, 2015 and the new elections yesterday. A couple provinces flipped to Syriza, and three turned to ND. In short, no meaningful change at all, a fact also reflected in both the number of seats... Read More
The results for all 650 constituencies in, time to make some brief observations. (1) Almost everyone was wrong (including myself). It is 1992 all over again, with opinion polls massively understating Conservative support. (2) Regionally, the story was essentially one of Conservative and SNP triumph in England and Scotland, respectively. Miliband (Labour), Clegg (LibDem), and... Read More
As voting gets underway - and by all accounts, it seems to be overwhelmingly heading for the pro-secession choice - it's worthwhile to dispel four common but erroneous beliefs about it. (1) The referendum is unconstitutional. This is true enough, as all of Ukraine would have to vote on it. But there is one big... Read More
1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny's support - among those who indicated a clear preference for one... Read More
According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny's performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried out at the doors of the election stations... Read More
A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny's percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background - Sobyanin vs. Navalny in... Read More
There has been some confusion about Navalny's poll ratings due to the varying timing, phrasing, and options in the polls on the matter. The Russian Spectrum tries to clear things up. Below is a summary of comparable polls on this subject by date from two of Russia's three biggest polling agencies: The private Levada Center,... Read More
With the registration period over, there are now six candidates left to compete for the position of Mayor of Moscow in the coming city elections. Who will Muscovites vote for? Which of the following candidates are you prepared to vote for in the upcoming Moscow elections on 8 September? Out of all Muscovites ...who intend... Read More
From a Freedom House publication:
Okay, I promise this will be the last post on the matter. But some of the tropes that come up time and time again in coverage of Chavez's legacy, from neocons and faux-leftists alike, just have to be addressed for me to rest easy. Note that this is NOT meant to be comprehensive; just some... Read More
I just remembered I'd made some in 2012. It's time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I... Read More
Lost in the furor and liberal butthurt over Depardieu's defection has been a development of far greater import: Russia is going to cardinally change its elections system. According to Putin's directive to the Presidential Administration and the Central Elections Committee, they are to come up with a bill that transforms Russia's current proportional system to... Read More
Latest contribution to the US-Russia.org Expert Discussion Panel on the question of which US Presidential candidate is best able to meet the challenges ahead: When predicting election outcomes, I prefer to listen to those who put their money where their mouths are. As of the time of writing, the Intrade predictions market gives a 66%... Read More
My latest for US-Russia.org Expert Discussion Panel on whether to view the recent Georgian elections, in which Saakashvili's United National Movement lost a lot of power, as a Kremlin coup or a triumph of democracy. My view that it isn't really either: Two dominant themes prevailed in media coverage of the 2012 Georgian elections (1)... Read More
Chavez won. The comprador candidate got sent packing. As, indeed, 80% of the pre-elections polls predicted. I fully expect the usual democratist presstitutes to cry foul in the coming days. Not because the Venezuelan elections were unfair - though they will doubtless be claimed to be so by the organs of imperialist propaganda like the... Read More
Natalia Zubarevich's concept of "The Four Russias" is one of the most reasoned and perceptive political analysis from the liberals, and as such I think it important enough to translate it (mostly I disagree with its core assumptions and conclusions though I do think it is a useful way of envisioning Russian politics). As such... Read More
One of the main theses of this blog is that in many respects, Russia is far more similar to the the "West" (and vice versa) than various democratists would have you believe. Case in point (h/t Jon Hellevig): "Mandatory" but "no one was forced to attend." Hmm... how does that work? This episode of Ohio... Read More
Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it's more likely than not that I've lost it. Not that I'm saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).
At least in the context of the US Presidential elections according to this nifty quiz. Here are my detailed results for perusal for anyone interested. PS. Mitt Romney's VP pick was a good one. Paulites however are (rightly) not convinced and I for one still favor Obama if with no particular enthusiasm. PPS. The real... Read More
Two days ago, Mexicans returned the PRI to power after 12 years in the political wilderness, with Enrique Peña Nieto becoming President. The leftist Obrador as well as PAN's Mota lost. I don't know much about Mexico but this is how I interpret things. (1) The PAN seem to be full of neoliberals, who serve... Read More
According to the press release (PDF) regarding the recent judgment, the issues considered by the ECHR as regarding complaints about the 2003 Russian Duma elections were the (1) the opposition's access to an "effective remedy" to complain about media bias in favor of United Russia; and (2) that the media's aforementioned bias prejudged the fairness... Read More
Yet another oft-repeated Western trope about Russian politics is that Putin has "lost the middle classes" (Brian Whitmore, paging Kudrin), that it is liberals who speak for the middle class (Fred Weir), or even that it is not just the middle class who are against Putin but the masses too (Masha Gessen). Let's look at... Read More
Apart from direct falsifications, which were extensively discussed here, the other really big criticism of the Russian elections process is that it isn't a level playing field. As said by an OSCE bureaucrat, "The point of elections is that the outcome should be uncertain. This was not the case in Russia." Well wait a second.... Read More
This post is a follow-up to a similar one for the 2011 Duma elections. It contains an extensive list of blogger, pundit and “expert” opinions on the extent of fraud in the 2011 Duma elections. Interspersed among these opinions and analyses are results from federal opinion polls, election monitors, and other evidence. In general, it... Read More
Remember Sergey Shpilkin? He is the mathematician, blogging as podmoskovnik, who estimated 16% fraud for the Duma elections (also the one whom the WSJ plagiarized off). He got this figure by assuming that in a fair election, the share of the vote for each candidate at each level of turnout had to be a constant... Read More
Did you know that elections in Britain and the US are marred by mass fraud? At least that would be the inescapable conclusion if they were to be subjected to the most popular methods to "prove" that Russian elections are rigged in favor of Putin and United Russia. Below I have a translated a delightful... Read More
Once again, a picture that's worth a thousand words, courtesy of Alex Kireev: A map of how Russians abroad voted in the 2012 elections (see below). Quantitatively, they split into three main groupings, each accounting for about a third of the votes from abroad: (1) Residents of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Pridnestrovie; (2) Other republics... Read More
Since yesterday, the following image from an article by liberal journalist Evgenya Albats has been making the rounds on the Internet. It shows that whereas Putin's official tally was 65%, independent observers put it close to or below the 50% marker that would necessitate a second round, such as Golos' 51% and Citizen Observer's 45%.... Read More
Analysis of the election data is now trickling in, so I feel I can now make some real preliminary estimates of the degree of fraud (eventually, I will compile a list of estimates as I did for the 2011 elections). My assessment is that in these elections it was on the order of 3%-4%, which... Read More
Here it is: Reading the Russian election. Please comment at their site, rather than here, if possible.
The above photo, part of a photo report by Ridus, shows the Anti-Orange protest at Poklonnaya Gora in Moscow on February 4th. Does that look like 35,000 people to you, let alone 20,000 or 15,000? Because those were the most commonly cited figures in the Western media, apart from those cases where they ignored them... Read More
One of the central (I would argue, the central) conundrum of all discussions about Russian elections fraud at the macro-scale is that the major pieces of evidence simply don't fit together. On the one hand, you have pre-elections polls that uniformly gave United Russia 50% or more of the vote; in fact, the last Levada... Read More
No Items Found
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.