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Russia harvested 133 million tons of grain in 2017, beating the all-time RSFSR record set in 1978. It has also been consistently harvesting more grain than in the Soviet years since the mid-2010s. Here it is in a wider historical perspective. Grain production in Russia from 1900-2012: Graph via @burckina-faso, a pro-Soviet blogger, so can... Read More
The data is based on Goertzel, Ted & al. (2012), Homicide Booms and Busts A Small-N Comparative Historical Study. The lead author kindly emailed me the data used to build their graphs (their version is on the right), which I used to construct the above graph of Russian historical homicide rates from 1875 to 2018.... Read More
Technology Review: Chinese scientists are creating CRISPR babies It's a popular meme that a China unencumbered by Judeo-Christian morality/superstitions (cross out as appropriate) will be more open to transhumanist technology. For instance, here is a typical statement of this argument from my friend Hank Pellissier:
HBD blogger JayMan has recently made a blog post critiquing me for my "Hajnal denialism." I really don't know where the criticism comes from. A quick perusal of my website and Twitter reveals that I do think ancestral family systems, as explored in the works of Hajnal and Emmanuel Todd, has significant explanatory power. Heck,... Read More
Joseph Tainter - The Collapse of Complex Societies (1998) Rating: 5/5 Notes: Can be downloaded here. Access my other reviews here: TLDR: Joseph Tainter argues that the root cause of civilizational collapse is because of over-investment into and declining marginal returns on complexity. Societies invest in complexity to solve their problems and typically need to... Read More
Izvestia (Dec 13, 1941) honors Vlasov amongst eight other heroes of the Battle of Moscow. Anybody who has spent any amount of time questioning the standard Soviet narratives about the first half of the 20th century will invariably be called a Vlasovite at some point. So far as neo-Stalinists are concerned, the turncoat general is... Read More
Kiev Pechersk Lavra. This is what Nicetas, Archbishop of Nicomedia, wrote in the 12th century about the Great Schism (1054) between Catholicism and Orthodoxy: Difference between then and now? A millennium ago, the Vicar of Christ presided over a flock that was about as demographically predominant within Christendom as the Russian Orthodox Church is within... Read More
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky: Kiev in 1905. I suppose that if superintelligence is developed soon, or the entire world melts together into a post-historical open borders dystopia/utopia, or some existential risk does as all in, then these considerations will become rather irrelevant. However, if the 21st century continues on a more or less "business as usual" path,... Read More
Wei Geisheing (2013). Aerial Shanghai by Crane Operator 2. Let's take the standard assumption that national power consists of three main elements: Economic, military, and cultural ("soft"). Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom? China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at... Read More
Robin Hanson once wrote a blog post about how reasonably intelligent people (for instance, the sort of people who read his blog) tend to overestimate how smart everyone else is. For instance, about half of Americans are unable to correctly read a table and do a simple addition/subtraction calculation: Such is the banal reality of... Read More
AK: This is a guest post from a friend of mine who... let's just say has spent a lot of time in both Russia and the United States. I can personally vouch for almost of all of these observations. *** Scholars variously assign responsibility for the political demise of the Soviet Union to different world... Read More
* NBC: Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning The sanctions are directly based on
This is essentially a short history of the 20th century from the point of view of HBD realism and the maxim that "population is power." This century turned out to be an "American Century." But it wasn't obvious that it was going to be that way - while the United States was almost predestined to... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky (1911): General view of the Church of St. John Chrysostom in Korovniki (from the mill) from the west. It is a curious thing that one of the most important stories of the Russian Civil War doesn't even have an English language entry in Wikipedia. Google results either lead to fleeting mentions in obscure... Read More
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As I suspected, Trump's meeting with Putin did indeed turn out to be a damp squib, at least relative to the unrealistic expectations that all sorts of strongly ideological camps had built up around it. Putin repeated his insistence that Russia did not meddle in the US elections, congratulated Trump on North Korea, acknowledged that... Read More
"15,000 African refugees could be resettled in Stavropol," read the Komsomolskaya Pravda headline, as displayed on Kholmogorov's latest post to appear on my Facebook feed. So this is the terminal stage of Putinism, I thought. Infinity Refugees. It is as if the kremlins looked at what is happening in the US and Western Europe and... Read More
The FLynn Effect has not acted uniformly across the various domains of intelligence. To put it very roughly, in the past century, the developed world has seen a two S.D. improvement on Raven's Progressive Matrices, hardly any improvement in verbal or Backward Digit Span tests, and a one S.D. improvement in various picture arrangement and... Read More
Nicholas II & family, 1914. Colorized by Olga. As the perfect companion piece to his takedown of Stalin, here’s Egor Kholmogorov's appraisal of Nicholas II, styled an “anti-Stalin”, written during his recent trip to Crimea, which provoked another round of teeth-gnashing among Neo-Stalinists and Sovietophiles. It should also be norws that a recent poll shows... Read More
Vasily Vereshchagin. Apotheosis of War (1871). There have recently been discussions on Mesoamerican civilizations prior to the Spanish incursions on this blog, in light of the recently unearthed racks of thousands of skulls sacrificed in honor of the blood gods. Interesting fact about Tenochtitlan, capital of the Aztec Empire: With a population of 250,000 in... Read More
Here is how the cliodynamician Peter Turchin, in his book War and Peace and War (which I reviewed here), describes the outcomes of different pit-fight scenarios between the Romans and the Gauls: Upon inquiry, it emerged that this assessment wasn't backed up by statistical evidence: Even so, the stereotype that Northerners are stronger than Southerners... Read More
Vladislav Pravdin - GREAT STALIN (1949). It is our joy that during the hard years of the war the Red Army and the Soviet people were led by the wise and experienced leader of the Soviet Union - the GREAT STALIN. And now for something completely different. Instead of snippets from larger works, here’s Egor... Read More
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The Stock Is Going To Zero
This take getting popular on Twitter, so reposting it on the blog for greater prominence. Link (5/22/2018) Congrats. Sounds like a good swing trade in light of the fact that the trend is your friend. I am getting in on the great bear raid against Tesla, which I’ve been agnostic on (mostly ignoring it) other... Read More
In late March/early April of this year, I visited Portugal. Now I have finally to come round to writing about it, as I have been promising to. First obvious question: Why Portugal? No reason in particular. Well, apart from it being cheap and convenient - as it happened, I only had to pay for the... Read More
Almost by necessity, all previous Kholmogorov translations have been those of his older texts, with a “lag” between the original and the translation varying between several days and several months. What you see now is a much rarer treat. Kholmogorov has just finished a long and engrossing article on Alexander Solzhenitsyn, clocking in at 16,000... Read More
The latest in our series of translations of Russian national-conservative intellectual Egor Kholmogorov. For the first part, see: Russians in the 2oth Century. Part I: Origins to WWII. Incidentally, while counter-mainstream commenters in the West are hardly well compensated, this is unfortunately doubly true in Russia. If you have enjoyed our translations of him, a... Read More
There are some fairly good reasons in favor of Russia's decision to intervene in Syria, which is why I have always been modestly if unenthusiastically supportive of it: It is basically a giant and continuous live training exercise for Russian pilots and generals, making it almost "free" in financial terms. The value of the Khmeimim... Read More
In his September 1, 2017 speech to incoming Russian schoolchildren, Putin made waves by proclaiming that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become "ruler of the world." This provoked a variety of reactions, from Elon Musk commenting on his belief that competition for AI superiority will be the likeliest cause of World War III... Read More
Are you an anti-Semite? Wonder no longer! Take the poll here: Am I an anti-Semite? The SPLC and RationalWiki both seem to think so. But there are also those who believe I am a hasbara shill, or even Jewish myself. Either way, I don't appear to be a particularly enthusiastic philo/anti-Semitic propagandist - of the... Read More
While data from various IQ tests are useful for global scale analyses (e.g. GDPcc correlations), they are far less reliable for particular countries. That's why I'm a big fan of the OECD's PISA assessments, which are highly standardized, have large samples from similar age groups, take place concurrently once every three years, test those aspects... Read More
Look, I realize Elon Musk is really cool and all, but this latest is just not that significant. The Falcon Heavy can carry 63 tons into orbit - but only if the rocket isn't reused. If it is, it's just a sad 8 tons [for GTO launches]. That already rules out commercial applications involving very... Read More
Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in. There were about 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017, a decline of 10.7% relative to the 1,893,256 (12.9/1,000) births in 2016. There were about 1,824,340 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2017, a decline of 3.4% relative to the 1,887,913 (12.9/1,000) deaths in 2016. Consequently, the... Read More
One hundred years ago (Jan 19, 1918) the Bolsheviks forcibly dissolved the Russian Constituent Assembly, kickstarting the Russian Civil War. Source: @welections Russian Constituent Assembly election, 1917: Brown = Social Revolutionaries; Red = Bolsheviks; Green = Regional SR’s; Yellow = Local parties. More germane reason: The Bolsheviks had only gotten 24.5% of the vote, getting... Read More
London Student: Exposed: London’s eugenics conference and its neo-Nazi links Some background: This scandal broke out when Toby Young, a conservative British political figure with a colorful history of Twitter controversies, was appointed to a government board on education - and removed almost instantaneously, after this story broke in The London Student, and was subsequently... Read More
Last week, I wrote about the 10 ways in which life in Russia is better than America. Now it's time for Uncle Sam to have his due.   Typical Moscow sleeper suburb. Although Russian prices are 2x cheaper than America's, the blunt fact is that wages are also 4x-5x lower. Consequently, the standard of living... Read More
It has now been exactly a year since I returned to Russia. One of the questions I get asked the most from Russians and foreigners alike is whether I enjoy living here, or whether I am disappointed. My answer is that it fell within my "range of expectations". I like to think that this is... Read More
At the tail end of the Cold War, there was an incredible atmosphere of Americanophilia throughout the USSR, including amongst Russians. Blue - approve of USA; orange - disapprove. Around 75%-80% of Russians approved of the United States around 1990, versus <10% disapproval. By modern standards, this would have put Russia into the top leagues... Read More
Guangzhou, China (/r/Cyberpunk) Some time ago a commenter asked me about the state of China Studies in Russia, an issue that is pretty germane as they increasingly align with each other. TL;DR - Catastrophic. Simply put, Russia does not have the cognitive tools to understand the country that Kremlin talking points describe as Russia’s "strategic... Read More
In my opinion, almost certainly yes (quantified: 90%. In line with PredictIt). Just to get that clear off the bat. But neither is it an absolutely foregone conclusion. For instance, see this recent "scoop" from The Independent's Oliver Carroll: The reason "scoop" is in apostrophes is that Putin's tiredness is hardly new to the Moscow... Read More
Though presented as an anti-corruption campaign, there's no real doubt that it is politically motivated (at any rate MbS sure enjoys the sweet life himself). I agree with Alexander Mercouris (read his excellent article) that the intent is to transform Saudi Arabia from the nepotistic monarchy it is today to a modernizing autocracy centered around... Read More
There is a general consensus that Stalin was a sadistic tyrant. But the ghost of his predecessor remains "handshakeworthy" on the left hand side of the political spectrum. The SWPLy bobos of Seattle, who would not have been long for the Communist world, erected a statue to him in the city center. The New York... Read More
On October 26, Almazbek Atambaev, the outgoing President of Kyrgyzstan, signed a decree replacing the November 7 celebrations of the October revolution with a “Day of History and Remembrance.” The “history” and “remembrance” in question refers to the Urkun, the Kyrgyz name for their 1916 revolt against Tsarist Russia. Here is an extract from the... Read More
Though it is Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan that have dominated the news these past two weeks, this month also saw a flare-up in separatist sentiment in Brazil. This region apparently has a have a fleeting historical experience of independence: They are the the whitest states:
The latest in our series of translations of Russian national-conservative thinker Egor Kholmogorov. Translated by: Fluctuarius Argenteus; slightly edited by AK. Original: *** It may seem strange that, at the turn of the 21st century, the word “Socialism” is back in the popular political idiom. The final decade of the preceding century seemed to have... Read More
What everyone thinks the Russian Empire was like. "Tsarist Russia was this superstitious land of icons and cockroaches with Cossacks on thot patrol with nagaikas in hand - and it was absolutely horrific!" - Liberals, Marxists. "Tsarist Russia was this superstitious land of icons and cockroaches with Cossacks on thot patrol with nagaikas in hand... Read More
East-Central Europe - the Visegrad nations and the Balts - are commonly considered to have had far better post-Communist transitions than Russia. They started earlier, and from a more privileged position; in contrast, the Soviet economy was more distorted in the first place, and there were no living memories of prewar capitalism. They got more... Read More
The conventional view of nationalism is that it was a product of mass literacy and the modern state, underpinned by schoolbooks and Tombs of the Unknown Soldier. Recent years have seen challenges to this historiographic consensus at both a general level (e.g. Azar Gat's Nations), and with respect to specific peoples (Robert Tomb's recent The... Read More
Europe famously has hate speech laws, which run the gamut from banning Nazi propaganda to criticizing mass immigration. Russia's version of it is Article 282, which has been used on everyone from genuine Neo-Nazis and radical Islamists to the nationalist pundit Konstantin Krylov for stating that it's "time to do away with this strange economic... Read More
A Russian Conservative on James Damore
Prosvirnin is the most talented writer. Limonov has by far the most colorful personality. Dugin has been the most effective at promoting himself in the West. Prokhanov probably has the most name recognition in Russia. Galkovsky created the most powerful memes. Krylov provided the esoteric flavoring. And yet out of all of Russia's right-wing intellectuals,... Read More
So we correctly make fun of people like Neil Turok and Deirdre McCloskey who expect to discover the next generation of Einsteins amongst 70-75 IQ Africans. Even if we could run the full FLynn program on Africa and raise it up to its genotypic IQ potential of 85-90, it's not like countries with those sorts... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.