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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
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I don't think I have a reputation for panicking. But I do think that we are now at probably the most dangerous point in world affairs since Russian and NATO troops faced off at Pristina Airport in 1999, if not since the Cold War. It is now clear that there will almost certainly be strikes... Read More
Official results: Official results with adjustment for fraud (via Kireev): As blogger Ivan Vladimirov noted, and as the above map confirms, Putin has become the President of ethnic Russians. This stands to reason. For instance, it's probably hard for many Dagestanis to see the appeal of Crimea. As opposed to, say, for the peoples of... Read More
Haven't been following it closely, so will refrain from commenting on it myself. Polls: Matt Forney (who is currently living in Hungary) is optimistic on Fidesz/Orban. Some comments from region expert reiner Tor during the past month: 1 The most reputable Hungarian analyst thinks Fidesz will win a narrow majority on Sunday. But because of... Read More
Certainly seems so to me. AltRight.com's Vincent Law was pretty optimistic at the start of 2017: "Overall assessment of the situation: Feels great, man." Only problem is - it appears that he either left them or was fired, which means that AltRight.com is no longer even worth following (Greg Hood is good but posts too... Read More
You must all be sick of me talking about the Russian elections so this is going to be my last post on it in this series. There is talk amongst my friends of a shift towards Putin amongst the socio-economic elites, which have long been voting against Putin. This is true, but only to the... Read More
Putin did poorly in 2012 against Prokhorov in the Far Abroad, with the billionaire liberal candidate level outright beating Putin in the US, Canada, Britain, and France [full list in Russian]. Russian Presidential elections abroad in 2012: Blue = Putin; Green = Prokhorov. However, while Putin failed to get an absolute majority even in Germany... Read More
Israel Shamir argues that Pavel Grudinin doing relatively well east of the Urals - then declining in the (much more populated) European Russia - constitutes evidence of fraud. This is unlikely to be true, since all the statisticians who regularly analyze Russian electoral fraud - needless to say, virtually all of them anti-Putin - agree... Read More
One of the more significant results of the election was that Putin got 92.2% in Crimea and 90.2% in Sevastopol. Moreover, these results were entirely fair. Here are the relevant graphs from Sergey Shpilkin, who approximates electoral fraud by the extent to which the vote for Putin becomes disproportional relative to the rest of the... Read More
Russia blogger Seva Bashirov made a map of the incidence of "suspicious votes" as per Sergey Shpilkin's method (not necessarily all fraudulent, but there's certainly a correlation) during these elections. Here is a similar map for the 2011 Duma elections (methodology is different, so scale isn't comparable). And in finer resolution: One of the previous... Read More
This is the startling hypothesis advanced by elections observer Alexander Kireev. Here's the thing. Elections in Chechnya have been completely falsified since 2003, reaching "totalitarian" levels of 99% turnout/99% pro-Kremlin vote by 2011-12 (versus the merely "authoritarian" 90/90 levels of the other Caucasus republics). In line with the reduction of fraud levels in the 2018... Read More
Meddling in the Russian elections. I voted for Zhirinovsky on March 18, 2018. Have said all there is to say on that in these articles: An Analysis of Zhirinovsky's Program Russia Elections 2018: Elections as Regime Referendums Putin 2018: The Scorecard With that out of the way, let's move on to the bigger picture. PS.... Read More
Putin Pepe. Once rare, now the market's flooded with them. I suppose this post can also double up as the Russian Elections 2018 thread. See archive: My final prediction: Turnout: 68.0% Baburin: 0.8% Grudinin: 9.7% Zhirinovsky: 7.8% Putin: 76.2% Sobchak: 2.0% Suraykin: 0.5% Titov: 0.5% Yavlinsky: 1.3% Spoiled ballots: 1.2% Putin needs to get his... Read More
Putin: Western MSM: Of course, Julia Ioffe is a Jewish ultranationalist who believes that simply talking about Russians' contributions to victory in WW2 is anti-Semitic: But pointing out context like this is why I, too, am an anti-Semite.
Xinhua: I don't normally devote individual posts to China news, since I don't follow it closely and certainly don't consider myself any kind of China expert, so I rarely have much in the way of original analysis to contribute. However, this is pretty important news, so I am making an exception. One of the achievement... Read More
How is the Russian media covering the elections? I don't watch TV, so I can't give any personal impressions, but fortunately there are other people to do that in succinct graphical format. Color scheme is constant: Grudinin, Putin, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky, Titov, Baburin, Sobchak. Total number of media mentions in segments about the elections. Average number... Read More
There's nothing particularly new or interesting per se in the 37 page indictment of 13 Russian nationals, including its head Evgeny Prigozhin, for "meddling" in the US elections through online trolling. The existence of the Internet Research Agency - or "Olgino", as it is known in Russia, after the location of the first "troll factory"... Read More
First polls are in with all eight of the official candidates. There are no surprises. Results of VCIOM and FOM polls, both from Feb 11 (adjusting for don't knows, won't votes, etc.): VCIOM FOM Putin 82.3% 84.2% Zhirinovsky 6.3% 6.8% Grudinin 8.4% 6.8% Sobchak 1.2% 1.1% Yavlinsky 0.9% 0.6% Titov 0.2% 0.1% Suraykin 0.1% 0.1%... Read More
So the final official bulletin was confirmed a few days ago. Here are the candidates: Has an interesting history: Was elected a people's deputy in the Supreme Soviet of Russia in 1990, and by early 1991 had become the leading contender to become its Chairman, beating out Ruslan Khasbulatov in the first round; then came... Read More
Western media: Opposition leader Navalny is "tapping into the anger of a younger generation yearning for change", and devotes frontline coverage to his "elections boycott" protest. Reality: Putin is polling 62% amongst young people, versus 76% amongst the elderly (FOM poll, including people who don't know/don't intend to vote), and the event was itself boycotted... Read More
Stalin's granddaughter, Chrese Evans, is a tatted up freak girl living in Portlandia, as "American as apple pie" in the words of her mother. Trotsky's great-grandson, David Axelrod, is a Jewish ultranationalist who emigrated to Israel and has served three jail terms for terrorizing Palestinians. Khrushchev's granddaughter, Nina L. Khrushcheva, lives in the US and... Read More
I am not aware of any active Russian political predictions markets, apart from "Will Vladimir Putin be president of Russia at the end of 2018?" at PredictIt (currently at 93% FWIW). I suppose there are three main reasons for this: 1. Interesting American fads only reach Russia with a lag time of several times, if... Read More
It's 51.4% Zeman vs. 48.6% Drahos. Things seemed dire for Zeman ten days ago, but he scraped by thanks to Drahos having the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk (to steal a phrase from Farage). Map. Drahos got 68.8% in Prague, and 90.3% amongst Czechs voting abroad (including... Read More
Remember the November 2016 Washington Post story on the secretive outfit that furnished a list of purportedly Russian-backed "fake news" websites? Well, thanks to some online sleuthing from a couple of bloggers/journalists, there's good reason to believe that PropOrNot was the brainchild of Michael D. Weiss and the Interpreter staff. Hank DeBwankey in Who’s behind... Read More
We are reaching levels of neoliberalism that shouldn't even be possible. In the USSR, getting a "red diploma" in university - the rough equivalent of a American summa cum laude - was contingent on acing the courses on scientific communism and similar crap. Interesting to see neoliberalism.txt developing in a similar direction. Andreas Schleicher, the... Read More
Navalny claimed that the state-owned pollsters VCIOM were artificially inflating Putin's figures, so his Anti-Corruption Fund will start releasing their own weekly polls, the first of which has just been released in Navalny's latest video address. Reminder that Putin got 66% in the last FOM poll, and 73% in the last VCIOM poll. FBK poll:... Read More
Turnout might be much lower than even the record low (60%) than I posited. Leonid Bershidsky in a recent article: Campaigning from Putin has been lackluster to say the least. Main development is that the campaign website has finally been launched ( ). At the time Bershidsky wrote his post, it didn't even have a... Read More
On the eve of the 2016 US elections, I got to talking with a Jew at one of the futurist meetups who was hyperventilating about the prospect of Trump winning. He unironically thought there was a risk of actual deportations of immigrants to concentration camps and pogroms against Jews. Typical Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferer, who... Read More
The next Czech President will probably be the guy who signed a "scientists against fear and hatred" in response to Zeman's "Islamophobia" and expressed concern about Russian elections hacking. Not only did the tipsy, politically incorrect Zeman underperform his poll numbers by around 4% points in the first round of the elections, but current polls... Read More
Charles Bausman (Russia Insider): It's Time to Drop the Jew Taboo This is objectively true. Heck, don't ask me, someone who writes for a site famous for its "mix of far-right and far-left anti-Semitic crackpottery" (as per the Jew Cathy Young). Ask J-P
In my previous post, I posted this map of how comfortable Europeans are regarding love relationships of their children in regards to race, and AP provided the original stats. I am always a bit saddened that Russia doesn't participate in the Eurobarometer polls, but fortunately, I found that VCIOM asked rather similar questions in polls... Read More
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4 Sometime in the 1990s, a critical mass of the American cognitive elite - that part of it which controls the bullhorns, anyway - must have decided that gay marriage was great. Now those people are usually well-spoken and articulate, with very high verbal IQs, while their opponents... tend to leave... Read More
After the surprise Communist candidacy of Pavel Grudinin, the main question was always going to be whether he would merely inherit Zyuganov's ratings - or climb well above them by invigorating Russians with the prospect of a new face in politics. We had to wait a couple of weeks longer than usual due to the... Read More
London Student: Exposed: London’s eugenics conference and its neo-Nazi links Some background: This scandal broke out when Toby Young, a conservative British political figure with a colorful history of Twitter controversies, was appointed to a government board on education - and removed almost instantaneously, after this story broke in The London Student, and was subsequently... Read More
Women are, fundamentally, conformists. That is, they choose the "handshakeworthy" option largely regardless of ideology. In the West that would be the culturally pozzed mainstream, i.e. anything but nationalism or the hard right. This explains the Alt Right's dim views on women in politics, culminating in memes like "thot patrols" and "white sharia" at its... Read More
Commenter German_reader summarizes an anonymous Iranian journalist about the protests there. Hilarious if true. And it just might be: Comment from an Iranian on Patrick Lang's blog: Evidently, the protests were initiated by political enemies of Rouhani in Mashhad. That city is referred to in Iran as a "hizbollahi city" - "Party of God City".... Read More
Previous predictions/calibrations: 2017: Predictions - Calibration 2016: Predictions - Calibration Please note that my "Blackpill Timeline" is a what-if scenario, not a prediction. While percentages for existing predictions will remain fixed, I reserve the right to add more predictions during the next couple of days. Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50% BTC... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb’s idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about 2017. See also predictions and results for 2016. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability... Read More
Conventional wisdom on the Russian elections: Positive interpretation: Russian elections give Russians more real ideological choice (conservative centrists, Communists, nationalists, liberals) than American ones (conservative neoliberals, liberal neoliberals). Negative interpretation: Putin and the party of power are assured of winning through overwhelming administrative resources, state media, and a side of electoral fraud. The other parties... Read More
Latest development: The KPRF has nominated 57 year old Pavel Grudinin as its candidate. This is the first time that the KPRF has gone with someone other than old warhorse Zyuganov since 2004, when Nikolay Kharitonov got an unimpressive 13.8% in the Presidential elections. Coming from a blue-collar background, Grudinin graduated from an agricultural engineering... Read More
Big surprise. /s Lots of boring and repetitive takes out there, so I'll write about something different; maybe this too will be boring, but at least it's probably unique. Here is how three of the leading lights of the Russian nationalist movement, the Two Egors and Igor Strelkov, reacted to this news. Egor Kholmogorov approves,... Read More
Yesterday there was another poll on the Russian Presidential elections in 2018, this time from FOM (although state-owned, my impression is that they aren't any less accurate than the independent - and somewhat oppositionist - Levada). Adjusting for undecideds/no shows, the results if elections were to be held tomorrow are as follows: Putin - 84%,... Read More
Assuming that it will be just between these four, I think it's going to go something like this: Note that Sobchak and any [liberal candidate] can be substituted for Navalny. (Also TBH, I think Navalny has a chance of getting 10% - see below). If other candidates (but not Navalny) run, for instance, Grigory Yavlinsky... Read More
I meant to write about this PEW poll when it came out this May. Better late than never, I guess. They highlight what they consider "9 key findings" here. Here is what I found to be the most interesting, significant, and/or surprising: This doubles as a rough demographic tally. Russia is around 10% Muslim -... Read More
In my opinion, almost certainly yes (quantified: 90%. In line with PredictIt). Just to get that clear off the bat. But neither is it an absolutely foregone conclusion. For instance, see this recent "scoop" from The Independent's Oliver Carroll: The reason "scoop" is in apostrophes is that Putin's tiredness is hardly new to the Moscow... Read More
Recent Rasmussen poll: I wrote about this as a return to pre-Soviet norms back in February: No, this doesn't appear to be on account of Republican/conservative infatuation with Putler, as /r/politics and the Blue Checkmarks would have you believe. Op
Westerners have semi-legitimate reasons to like Lenin. Hard-headed proponents of Realpolitik and plain old vanilla Russophobes might appreciate his role in crippling Russia relative to what it could have been in the 20th century (i.e. a full-spectrum challenger to the American order, instead of Upper Volta with missiles). The increasing popular strains of SJW leftism... Read More
Richard Spencer and some other Alt Righters wanted to hold an NPI conference in Budapest on October 3-5, 2014 in honor of BASED Hungary. It... didn't quite work out as planned. Jared Taylor: Report from Budapest (Updated) Radix: The First Identitarian Congress Richard Spencer and one other person was detained in uncomfortable conditions for a... Read More
FOX: Yes, the likes of Breitbart are going to (justifiably) ask what exactly Sayfullo Saipov was doing on a diversity visa in the United States. But at least there's some kind of visa involved, even though America is on the other side of the world from Central Asia. Russia doesn't even bother with a visa... Read More
If reports that 700,000 came out in Barcelona are accurate, then Spain in its current borders is likely done for. This is about as high a percentage of the Barcelona metropolitan area's 5.4 million as the 500,000 Ukrainians who came out at the height of Euromaidan in the 3.3 million Kiev conglomerate area - and... Read More
Final results: YES: 90.1% NO: 7.9% Turnout: ~42% of those counted (2,262,424), ~56% if including the confiscated ballot boxes (~770,000) out of 5,343,358 registered voters. Assuming that the vote in "repressed" polling stations was similar, you can turnout * YES = ~51% support for independence, which tallies exactly with the last poll on the basis... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.