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Revolutionary passions. Then it won't be a big deal for Russia. Now to be sure, I still think my analysis here stands - Armenians genuinely do approve of Russia, and even if they didn't, they certainly approve of Azerbaijan and Turkey far less, and with good reason - but if we do get an anti-Russian... Read More
There is a non-trivial chance of a color revolution in Armenia in the next few days. I don't follow domestic Armenian politics, but the basic gist of it is that the two-term President Serzh Sargsyan - who is highly unpopular due to increases in utilities tariffs - has recently transitioned from the Presidency to the... Read More
Been a while since I did one of these. Link: Robert Stark talks to Anatoly Karlin about the Syrian Strikes, Russian Politics & The Failure of Trump Contents: Douma and Dumber John Bolton and the return of the Neocons Trump using the strike to distract from Russiagate Whether the strike is purely symbolic or could... Read More
So we now finally have some limited clarity on the outcome of this year's first Syria crisis. US frigates, B-1 bombers, and French/UK fighters launched around 100 cruise missiles at Syria, incidentally taking care to launch from far away and stay outside the radius of Russia's A2AD bubbles. Ben Nimmo. There are also disputes over... Read More
There are some fairly good reasons in favor of Russia's decision to intervene in Syria, which is why I have always been modestly if unenthusiastically supportive of it: It is basically a giant and continuous live training exercise for Russian pilots and generals, making it almost "free" in financial terms. The value of the Khmeimim... Read More
At this point I'm just wondering when neoliberalism.txt will finally lay off the Russiagate conspiracy theory. I suspect never. The neocons surrounding Trump have locked him into a never-ending spiral of escalation towards Russia in a hopeless bid to "prove" that he is not Putin's puppet. By striking Syria, Trump becomes "Presidential" in eyes of... Read More
Some headlines since that powerful take: China says relations with Russia at 'best level in history' China applauds Putin’s win, backs Russia on Skripal case, hails China’s ‘strategic partnership’ with Russia Global Times: Russian diplomat expulsions signal crude side of Western intention Russia & China to merge satellite tracking systems into one global navigation giant... Read More
Since the Russian election is taking place on the anniversary of Crimea's incorporation into Russia - an intentional play to increase turnout - now is as good a time as any to reflect on the complete failure of the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. The Adepts of Putin's "Clever Plan" have predicted all twelve of the Ukraine's... Read More
So it looks like the British reaction to The Skripal Affair is assuming very serious proportions, especially with the most recent allegations that the nerve agent in question was Novichok. (Incidentally, it is a gas so potent - an order of magnitude more so than VX - that carpet bombing a middle-sized city with it... Read More
Since nobody knows anything, as Alexander Mercouris points out, I haven't bothered following this closely. Still, I suppose it's big enough that I should post something about it. This comment from for-the-record seems not entirely implausible: What seems eminently clear is that whoever did it knew that this would be attributed to the Russians, and... Read More
What are they? Michael Kofman, who does seem to know what he is talking about and has studied the Russian language literature, has a very comprehensive summary. Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 1 – Kinzhal, Sarmat, 4202) Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 2 – 9M730?, Status-6, Klavesin-2R) How far... Read More
Quick recap of developments since the last update. First half consisted of boring economic and political stuff (e.g. increasing GDP by 50% over the next 6 years, implying 7% growth - as realistic as his promise to create 25 million hi-tech jobs last year). Nobody really cares about this. In the second half, wearing his... Read More
That's Dnepropetrovsk mayor Boris Filatov, close Kolomoisky acolyte and Maidan hardliner: Well, he's not wrong. This pretty much summarizes the whole affair, with these two comments [1, 2] filling in the rest of the details. There are serious questions over whether she actually did commit suicide, or was "helped" with it - she apparently shared... Read More
From the most recent Eurobarometer poll [see also other countries]: Strange patterns, at first glance. Even just a few years ago, this map would have been unrecognizable, with East European countries viewing Russia with relatively greater hostility than Western Europe. So what changed? Well, what I suspect happened is a European version of the return... Read More
Since the US attack on Wagner mercenaries in Deir ez-Zor on February 7, which even the Kremlin has now been forced to admit included Russian casualties, come these stunning revelations from The Washington Post: The intercepted communications show not only that Prigozhin was personally involved in planning the attack but that he had discussed it... Read More
1. On February 7, the Americans destroyed a Syrian column moving in the direction of the Coneco oil fields with artillery, wiping up the rest with helicopters. There were at least 100 deaths in the SAA, versus one lightly injured SDF soldier. Although this could be viewed as a Syrian provocation, the fact remains that... Read More
Russia's greenness is immediately amusing set against the crimson autistic screeching of the West, but still, there's interesting details hidden in detailed actual report. For instance, Israeli approval increased the most of any significant country, by 14% points (only Liberia and Macedonia increased by more), to 67% total approval. Meanwhile, while Russia's approval did increase,... Read More
So it's clear from /r/SyrianCivilWar and LiveUAMap that Turkey and the TFSA has begun a large offensive to take Afrin, the Kurdish pocket in the northwest of the country. 1. There's no real question over their capacity to do it - the main question will be to what extent they will need Turkish ground support,... Read More
Russian Ministry of Defense: Security system of the Russian Khmeimim air base and Russian Naval CSS point in the city of Tartus successfully warded off a terrorist attack with massive application of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) through the night of 5th – 6th January, 2018. As evening fell, the Russia air defence forces detected 13... Read More
I have long warned that Islamic State's defeat will be a double-edged sword. Positive: Syrian government-held territory effectively doubles, though mostly in terms of useless, depopulated desert. Negative: Status quo returns to that of several years ago, i.e. back when Assad was "killing his own people" so far as the Western press, without the superlative... Read More
Some pretty strange things going on at Khmeimim. 1. On Jan 3, 2018, Kommersant reported: The destruction of seven (!) planes at the Russian airbase in Syria, including four Su-24, two Su-35C, and one An-72 transport. More than ten servicemen were injured An ammo dump was destroyed This was supposedly the result of an Islamist... Read More
Epistemic status: Low. I don't know Farsi. I don't particularly follow Iran. That said, I am hardly alone in this. Bryan MacDonald: "Even I’m kinda astonished by how many American “Russian experts” have suddenly become “Iran experts” in the past 48 hours. молодцы товарищи!! #ачтивмеасурес" 1. Widely divergent reports about how many people are protesting.... Read More
Last week, I wrote about the 10 ways in which life in Russia is better than America. Now it's time for Uncle Sam to have his due.   Typical Moscow sleeper suburb. Although Russian prices are 2x cheaper than America's, the blunt fact is that wages are also 4x-5x lower. Consequently, the standard of living... Read More
1. I do not consider it likely that North Korea will have the means to successfully deliver nukes to population concentrations in S. Korea, Japan, or the US. As far as I know this is expert consensus. It has had impressive successes in both nuclear weaponry and long-range rocketry in the past year, but there... Read More
It has now been exactly a year since I returned to Russia. One of the questions I get asked the most from Russians and foreigners alike is whether I enjoy living here, or whether I am disappointed. My answer is that it fell within my "range of expectations". I like to think that this is... Read More
Might as well get this out of the way now so as not to sully the New Year cheer. Here's a pessimistic (for some) but plausible (I think) way things will develop in the next couple of years. 1. Trump cedes key positions to globalists and neocons. This has already happened; for all intents and... Read More
At the tail end of the Cold War, there was an incredible atmosphere of Americanophilia throughout the USSR, including amongst Russians. Blue - approve of USA; orange - disapprove. Around 75%-80% of Russians approved of the United States around 1990, versus <10% disapproval. By modern standards, this would have put Russia into the top leagues... Read More
This is one possible interpretation of a recent report in Vedomosti, which analyzed a Russian Ministry of Defense tender for military insurance for the years 2018-2019. Included within was detailed Russian military mortality statistics for the 2012-2016 period, lifting the lid on a veil of secrecy on such matters since 2010. 2005 2012 2013 2014... Read More
Though presented as an anti-corruption campaign, there's no real doubt that it is politically motivated (at any rate MbS sure enjoys the sweet life himself). I agree with Alexander Mercouris (read his excellent article) that the intent is to transform Saudi Arabia from the nepotistic monarchy it is today to a modernizing autocracy centered around... Read More
Though it is Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan that have dominated the news these past two weeks, this month also saw a flare-up in separatist sentiment in Brazil. This region apparently has a have a fleeting historical experience of independence: They are the the whitest states:
Catalonia is richer and more intelligent than the Spanish average, but hardly any sort of huge outlier. Could economic reasons really explain that much of their drive for independence? PISA_2015 GDPcc_2010 Andalusia 95.9 $22,487 Aragon 100.7 $32,152 Asturias 99.6 $28,271 Balearic Islands 97.3 $31,876 Basque Country 98.3 $40,457 Canary Islands 95.5 $25,512 Cantabria 99.6 $30,315... Read More
Anti-Myanmar protest in a nominally Russian region. Source: Елена Афонина / ТАСС / Scanpix / LETA Photogenic female face of resistance to the junta and Nobel Peace Prize winner comes to power as de facto leader of Myanmar. Some of Aung San Suu Kyi's comments about a certain Muslim minority in her country up to... Read More
Results of the new PEW poll on international relations. ROG-ZOG alliance on Trump. Russia is also the major country where approval of the US went up since Trump's election. These figures are however a bit outdated (they were gathered this spring). Levada, which keeps track of Russian opinion of foreign countries, showed US approval falling... Read More
The figures for Russia are from Levada, those for Ukraine are from KMIS. The basic story is that there was a (mutual) collapse in Ukraine-Russia views of the other country around 2014, which has remained steady since.
A couple of weeks ago, Ukraine passed an edict banning access to a host of Russian web services including VKontakte and Odnoklassniki (Russia's Facebook, and most popular social network in Ukraine, with 13 million users; Odnoklassniki is 4th, with 9 million users; for comparison, Facebook is 8th with 5.6 million users, though tellingly it is... Read More
Trump fights the good fight for Tropical Hyperborea... erm, I mean for Pittsburgh, not Paris. Meanwhile, the kremlins see it fit to backstab him on this of all issues. Note that this is a couple of days after Macron publicly humiliated Putin in Paris, telling him that RT.com and Sputnik are propagandists to his face.... Read More
In my coverage of the French elections, I've been vaccilating between optimism and pessimism. Obviously, Le Pen's result - 34% of the vote - was unprecedentedly good, and her popularity seemed to be especially strong amongst French youth. On the other hand, it was perhaps not as good a result as could have been expected,... Read More
My latest podcast with Robert Stark, co-host and proponent of Asian-Aryanism pilleater, and Alt Right legend Guillaume Durocher, who has written for Counter-Currents, Radix, and Occidental Observer. We mostly talked about the French elections and French demographics. Here's a link: The final election round between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron The French Elections 2017... Read More
A couple of weeks back I had an AMA (Ask Me Anything) with /r/Russia. Direct link: Hi /r/Russia! Anatoly Karlin, writer for The Unz Review / Анатолий Карлин, "пейсатель" о России, геополитике. AMA! Thought I would reprint some of the questions and answers there so that they don't vanish into the digital ether. *** You... Read More
It's live here: /r/russia is one of the best forums on the Internet for people interested in Russia. You can reply in either English or Russian. Most of the people there are basically Russian patriots, though considerably more socially liberal and better acquainted with the West than the Russian average. However, there are plenty of... Read More
The results are in and YES has won a narrow 51.4% victory in the Turkish referendum on making the country into a Presidential republic. This map I found (via Turkish Wikipedia) is the only one to show regional gradations. It shows the percentage of people voting NO. It is electorally very typical for Turkey, which... Read More
I once wrote a long article about a Korean War II. But this one chart tells essentually the same tale. I suspect it will be a harder nut to crack than Iraq in 2003, or even 1991. It is an ultranationalist (not a Communist) regime with a formidable secret police, so you're not going to... Read More
I realize everyone is obsessed with North Kora right now, but the Turkish referendum that is set for April 16 may turn out to be even more significant. Erdogan's AKP and the MHP nationalists have proposed a set of amendments to the Turkish constitution that would remove the office of the Prime Minister, annul a... Read More
So it's been a few days since the Syria Strikes, everyone and his dog have thrown in their two cents, and there has been a set of confusing and contradictory reactions from US officials and pretty much everyone else involved in this saga. The more the contradictions pile on, the less clear the picture becomes.... Read More
In light of recent news, now is perhaps a good time to remind ourselves of perhaps the most succinct and information dense explanation of why Assad is less bad than the "moderate rebels." Via Nicholas Nassim Taleb:
Funny thing is, just the other day I was on a podcast where I joked/predicted that Antifa would try to beat up Richard Spencer's merry band of Alt Right anti-war protesters. Buzzfeed: As AltLeft noted today, "I never anticipated that we would be organizing and participating in actual anti-war demonstrations, but here we are." What... Read More
I didn't really invent this meme, as Patrick Armstrong once credited me; there were a few disjointed mentions of it there and there from before 2011. That said, I do think I did more than than anyone else to popularize it. Anyhow, the term Putin Derangement Syndrome has finally gone mainstream, with Rolling Stone's Matt... Read More
There are so many problems with the propaganda campaign against Assad getting unrolled now. (1) You can't treat exposure to sarin with your bare hands without falling ill/dead yourself, as the White Helmets were apparently doing in the aftermath of the Idlib attack. (2) As Syrian war reporter @Partisangirl noticed, some journalists were apparently discussing... Read More
It's like the CIA/Mossad/Illuminati-financed Takfiri mercenaries, otherwise known as radical Islamists amongst sane people, have embarked on a marketing campaign in favor of a visa regime with Central Asia. A group of Islamists ambushed a pair of Russian policemen doing a routine vehicle check on a minibus in Astrakhan oblast. Eight men of apparent Kazakh... Read More
A week ago, I speculated that Voronenkov was most likely killed by a Ukrainian nationalist who overdosed on svidomism, and not by the Dark Lord of the Kremlin: This was strongly suggested by the fact that the gunman, Pavel Parshov, was a former member of a Donbass batallion that had participated in the ATO. He... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.