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tech guy notes that Europe barely has a presence in the tech sector. Hardware dominated by East Asians; Europeans used to do this, but Phillips, Nokia had their heyday many years ago. Internet infrastructure (e.g. cloud, DNS) dominated by the United States, though China has its own self-contained ecosystem. Platforms (operating systems, social networks, search... Read More
Guangzhou, China (/r/Cyberpunk) Some time ago a commenter asked me about the state of China Studies in Russia, an issue that is pretty germane as they increasingly align with each other. TL;DR - Catastrophic. Simply put, Russia does not have the cognitive tools to understand the country that Kremlin talking points describe as Russia’s "strategic... Read More
When finishing up yesterday's post I realized that Transparency International has finished releasing its final version of the Global Corruption Barometer. By far the most interesting indicator is the percentageof people who report paying a bribe in the past 12 months (more precisely, the percentage of households who paid a bribe when accessing basic services).... Read More
The World Bank Enterprise Surveys are an invaluable source of information on the business climate across both time and space. In particular, its section on corruption does for businesses what Transparency International's Global Corruption Barometer does for individuals - it directly asks them whether they are expected to give bribes to bureaucrats to reach understandings... Read More
Inflation is now at 2.7% as of October 2017, down from double-digit rates three years ago and overshooting the Central Bank of Russia's 4% target for this year. This constitutes an all-time post-Soviet low. This is in large part thanks to the hawkish monetary policy of CBR head Elvira Nabiullina, and indirectly of Putin, who... Read More
The World Bank has just released its Ease of Doing Business data for 2018 (report PDF; rankings; historical data in Excel) I wrote about why good scores on this indicator are pretty useful two years ago: First, elites pay a lot of attention to it. Several countries – including Russia, Kazakhstan, and India – have... Read More
Kulivets & Ushakov – 2016 – Modeling Relationship between Cognitive Abilities and Economic Abstract: It's well established that there is a very close correlation between average national IQ and GDP per capita, especially when corrected for resource windfalls and Communism.
The latest in our series of translations of Russian national-conservative thinker Egor Kholmogorov. Translated by: Fluctuarius Argenteus; slightly edited by AK. Original: http://zavtra.ru/blogs/pravoslavnyij-sotsializm *** It may seem strange that, at the turn of the 21st century, the word “Socialism” is back in the popular political idiom. The final decade of the preceding century seemed to... Read More
There are three main reasons why the correlation between national IQ and GDP per capita is only around r=0.7, instead of r=0.9. Oil/resource windfalls: Saudi Arabia would otherwise be about as prosperous as Yemen. The legacy of Communism: Central planning and especially the lunacy that is Maoism are far less effective than free markets. The... Read More
In 2014, Lenta.ru conducted a study into the ethnic composition of Russia's billionaires. (Steve Sailer picked it up as well). The observation that Jews constituted 21% of the Russian Forbes 200 predictably drove handshakeworthy journalists, Jews, and especially Jewish journalists into a tizzy (as I recall, when I asked him when he was also going... Read More
East-Central Europe - the Visegrad nations and the Balts - are commonly considered to have had far better post-Communist transitions than Russia. They started earlier, and from a more privileged position; in contrast, the Soviet economy was more distorted in the first place, and there were no living memories of prewar capitalism. They got more... Read More
According to the latest estimates, Russia might harvest as much as 133 million tons of grain this year. This would make 2017 a record harvest not just by post-Soviet standards, which were pretty dismal until the past decade, but relative to the RSFSR's peak of 127.4mn tons in 1978. (This is the case even after... Read More
Results of the Pakistan Census are out and show that the population has reached 207,774,520 people as of 2017. After hurtling past Russia around 2000, Pakistan has now just about converged with Brazil, which has approximately 207,932,000 people as of this year. Considering that Pakistan increases by 4 million every year to less than 2... Read More
Africa has more than 50 political entities and more than a billion people with some of the highest concentrations of genetic and cultural diversity on the planet. For every destitute failure like Niger, you have some country that bucks the stereotype and dispels some of the doom and gloom that predominates in HBD-realistic commentary about... Read More
I think Czechia might just be the best country in the world. Europe's best gun rights (just further liberalized) But lower homicide rate than UK/France/Germany because no aggressive Third World minorities Social liberalism without the poz and purple-haired SJWs Also most atheist European country But with a higher fertility rate than Holy Poland nonetheless Sane... Read More
This is a horse I've pretty much beaten to death, but still worth pointing out - not many Russians want to leave Russia. And not many Russians ever wanted to leave Russia. Results of the latest Levada polls: Incidentally, when I was in Saint-Petersburg, the hotel receptionist said that if anything, there has been a... Read More
So the other day Mark Zuckerberg, who is all but officially campaining for the Presidency in 2020, came out in favor of basic income: I do support basic income. Though who cares what I support. Two to three decades down the line, basic income will become all but inevitable if the oligarchs want mass consumer... Read More
In recent weeks I've had cause to look at Moscow property prices. There are basically three major socio-economic regions in Moscow: The center - Upper middle class, very high property prices (300-400,000R/sq m), cosmopolitan, tilted against Putin and towards liberal parties like Yabloko, full of cafes with Macbook toting hipsters, do not discriminate against immigrants... Read More
Here is a graph of monthly births in Russia since 2006 through to March 2017: It is pointless to make sweeping conclusions based on demographic data from the past one or two months. That said, the three month moving average has been down relative to the same period in the previous year since the middle... Read More
Ernst & Young regularly carries out large-scale surveys of corporate employees across a range of countries on issues such as ethics and corruption in the workplace. In the latest Global Fraud Survey (PDF), which took place at the end of 2016, 88% of Ukrainian employees thought that bribery and corrupt practices are widespread in business... Read More
In an infamous 2008 article, Alexander Dugin makes the distinction between "patriotic corruption" and "comprador corruption," or "Eurasian corruption" and "Atlanticist corruption." Here are the main features of "Eurasian" (patriotic) corruption: Doesn't damage Russia's national security; Concentrates the proceeds of corruption on Russian territory, or that of allied or strategically important countries; Doesn't put the... Read More
On March 29, the High Court in London has decided that the sanctity of Eurobond debt trumps Ukraine's special pleading to treat the Russian $3 billion loan to the late Yanukovych regime as odious debt and wave it away on account of Russia's supposed "aggression" against it. This is not the final judgment, which is... Read More
Why is corruption so bad in Eastern Europe? And what can be done about it? First off, I don't know to what extent it can be reduced. According to the hbdchick's theories on the Hajnal Line, ceteris paribus, Southern and Eastern Europe will always be more corrupt than the countries of "core Europe" because they... Read More
The final figures for life expectancy and TFR in total and for the regions have been released today. The Rosstat computations give an estimate of TFR = 1.76 children per woman and LE = 71.9 years for 2016, which are pretty close to my rough estimates a month ago. The total population is estimated to... Read More
The reason I don't write much about Russia's demographics nowadays is that there isn't much point to it. Up until the early 2010s, the Western media was brimming with misinformation about the subject - what we now call #fakenews - so refuting it was both profitable and easy. Incredibly easy. You didn't really have to... Read More
Has been released. It is basically a composite index of about a dozen subjective corruption ratings given out by various development organizations and more political NGOs (e.g. Freedom House). Although it generally reflects reality, as in it correlates well with other, more objective measures of corruption, there are two major caveats: (1) It is not... Read More
In international sociological comparisons of happiness Russia and the ex-USSR have become pretty much bywords for very low levels of happiness and life satisfaction. Here is a not atypical graph showing Russia as one several extreme outliers. However, polling evidence suggests this is an increasingly dated view, much as demographic data has already long invalidated... Read More
Transparency International has released the Global Corruption Barometer 2016 for Europe: The map above shows the answer to the most interesting question in the survey: "Did you or any member of your household make an unofficial payment or gift when using [a public service] over the past 12 months"? In the last survey from 2013,... Read More
Nothing illustrates China's meteoric rise as some well chosen numbers. By the end of the 1990s, China had come to dominate the mainstays of geopolitical power in the 20th century - coal and steel production. As a consequence, it leapt to the top of the Compositive Index of National Capability, which uses military expenditure, military... Read More
At his blog Greg Cochran raises the issue of the Great Stagnation. Basically, GDP per capita growth rates throughout the developed world have plummeted relative to the levels of 1950-1973 (the years of the miracle economy, Wirtschaftswunder, trentes glorieuses, etc). They are however more or less typical of growth rates earlier in the century, substantially... Read More
  Online version with hyperlinks: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/ea-and-intelligence-theory/ I am a blogger and independent researcher who is interested in the intersections of intelligence theory, futurism, economics, and geopolitics. Here is a summary of my ideas relevant to Effective Altruism: Intelligence is central to explaining the wealth and poverty of nations, so a good understanding of it is... Read More
I have often remarked that a convenient way to think about East Asian comparative economic development is to view its three biggest players - China, Japan, and South Korea - as being separated by twenty year "chunks" of development, with Japan being on its leading edge and China being its laggard. For instance, here is... Read More
The most well known index of corruption is Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. However, as I have frequently pointed out, it has a lot of problems. The biggest one lies in its very name - perceptions are not necessarily equal to reality, even - or especially - if they come from a narrow class of... Read More
Tiny Iceland once astounded the world by being the only county to send its banksters to jail and repudiating the debts taken on by the citizenry they hoodwinked. As a result, there were no significant drops in living standards, whereas Greece, which adopted the opposite policies, got stuck in a grinding depression that continues to... Read More
And make no doubt about it - a collapse is exactly what it is, and it afflicts way more of the country than just the war-wracked Donbass. Ukraine now vies with Moldova for the country with the lowest average wages in Europe. Gabon with snow? Saakashvili is hopelessly optimistic. That would actually be a big... Read More
Hungary is opting for the latter: 10 million forints is about $35,000. You may recall that this is the exact same sum that George Soros is demanding that the EU pay each immigrant during just their first two years there. No wonder he and his minions hate Orban so
According to a recent n=150,000 global survey by Gallup and S&P, there is an astounding lack of financial literacy in the world. To gauge financial literacy, they asked a series of four questions on basic financial concepts such as risk diversification, inflation, simple interest, and compound interest. They were very simple and typically only had... Read More
This recent article by Leonid Bershidsky got me thinking. Even though the automation train has yet to really leave the station, publics throughout the Western world already display a remarkably high degree of support for Universal Basic Income. 69% in Finland (1000 euros) 49% of the Swiss ($2500!) 60% in France 46% in Canada 59%... Read More
Rhetoric about it being "Nigeria with snow," "Zaire with permafrost," "Upper Volta with missiles," "gas station masquerading as a country," etc., regardless, the fact of the matter is that Russia does have a respectable manufacturing base. This should be pretty obvious just from a quick perusal of the sorts of manufactures Russia produces: A vast... Read More
In the overall scheme of things, the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business (and other such indices) don't seem to be terribly important. As long as you don't go full retard on such matters and adopt Soviet-style central planning, or something like that, then you should do just fine as long as your human capital/national... Read More
Recent news of the Japanese government directing its public universities to stop offering social sciences and humanities courses raises some pretty important questions over the future of higher education in the age of fiscal deficits, automation, and e-learning ahead. An entirely predictable debate followed, with skeptical conservatives (and I daresay most Unz readers) saying good... Read More
In response to Razib's post. Economically, Communist regimes are far from monolithic. You had: State capitalist/"market socialist" countries like today's China and Belarus, the NEPist USSR, tradionally Communist-ruled Kerala for that matter. Note that even Western countries, e.g. dirigiste France, have flirted with this. Central planning as practiced from the late 1920s in the USSR,... Read More
This has the potential to end up as an exceedingly embarassing post in retrospect, much like the confident blusterings of Wall Street bigwigs in 2007 or 1929 convinced the boom would never end. Still, I guess someone has to stick their neck out. (1) Booms tend to precede busts. But... what boom? Most of the... Read More
Nearly every other day brings another scary headline about Russia's economic apocalypse. Inflation is robbing Russians of buying power and Putin propagandists are denying it. The "wheels are coming off" the regime according to our friends at the RFERL, the end of the regime is nigh according to Bill Browder, and Putin's days are numbered,... Read More
  At least according to the latest revision of the World Bank's PPP-adjusted GDP estimates. China has long been expected to overtake the US economy (one economist dated it to as early as 2010), and there had already been a flurry in the media when the IMF claimed the same thing in December last year.... Read More
In Western popular culture, and to be honest most of the rest of the world, Kazakhstan is most commonly associated with Borat and his putative homeland of slapstick provincial troglodytes. And following Nursultan Nazarbayev's 98% win in the recent elections, and his reaction to it... ... the casual observer might feel that it has some... Read More
Why is the HBDsphere so damn interested in IQ, anyway? While I can't speak for the "movement" at large, in my own case the interest stems from the fact that it explains so much about our world. (In fact, I was interested in this topic long before I discovered HBD, Charles Murray, Jensen, Lynn, Rushton,... Read More
There is, once again, widespread excitement about the prospects of the Indian economy. This comes on the heel of news that India's Q3 growth has now marginally edged above China's, after a statistical adjustment. Can we now expect the Elephant to replace the Dragon as the motor of the world economy? At times like these... Read More
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.