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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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The latest in our series of translations of Russian national-conservative intellectual Egor Kholmogorov. For the first part, see: Russians in the 2oth Century. Part I: Origins to WWII. Incidentally, while counter-mainstream commenters in the West are hardly well compensated, this is unfortunately doubly true in Russia. If you have enjoyed our translations of him, a... Read More
There is a non-trivial chance of a color revolution in Armenia in the next few days. I don't follow domestic Armenian politics, but the basic gist of it is that the two-term President Serzh Sargsyan - who is highly unpopular due to increases in utilities tariffs - has recently transitioned from the Presidency to the... Read More
Artists' rendition of Roskomnadzor trying to block Telegram. The problem isn't even so much the cack-handed authoritarianism, though that's bad enough. Russian web censor Roskomnadzor's (RKN) blockage of Telegram several days ago will negatively affect the 15 million Russians who use the platform, which combines the functionality of Twitter (public blogs, channels) and WhatsApp (mobile... Read More
Michael McFaul, Russia "expert" (and former US ambassador to Russia) who doesn't believe he needs to be able to speak/write Russian:
Been a while since I did one of these. Link: Robert Stark talks to Anatoly Karlin about the Syrian Strikes, Russian Politics & The Failure of Trump Contents: Douma and Dumber John Bolton and the return of the Neocons Trump using the strike to distract from Russiagate Whether the strike is purely symbolic or could... Read More
I got the opportunity to meet up with commenter AP this week. Had a very pleasant conversation with him, if a pretty short one as was necessitated by his busy schedule. I had been hoping to do a long post on my travels in Portugal, not nuclear war, this week. Will hopefully get that up... Read More
Branco Milanovic - When autarky becomes the only solution This post-Cold War idea that corporations are taking over the world always seemed ridiculous to me. Consider the following: Wealthiest individual ~$100 billion (Bezos) Wealthiest corporation ~$1 trillion (Apple) Wealthiest country ~ $100 trillion (USA), of which states typically own 20%-70%. Plus, they have 95%+ of... Read More
So we now finally have some limited clarity on the outcome of this year's first Syria crisis. US frigates, B-1 bombers, and French/UK fighters launched around 100 cruise missiles at Syria, incidentally taking care to launch from far away and stay outside the radius of Russia's A2AD bubbles. Ben Nimmo. There are also disputes over... Read More
There are some fairly good reasons in favor of Russia's decision to intervene in Syria, which is why I have always been modestly if unenthusiastically supportive of it: It is basically a giant and continuous live training exercise for Russian pilots and generals, making it almost "free" in financial terms. The value of the Khmeimim... Read More
I don't think I have a reputation for panicking. But I do think that we are now at probably the most dangerous point in world affairs since Russian and NATO troops faced off at Pristina Airport in 1999, if not since the Cold War. It is now clear that there will almost certainly be strikes... Read More
On April 6, the US Treasury Department extended sanctions against a number of Russian billionaires, including: Heads of state owned energy giants Sechin (Rosneft) and Miller (Gazprom) Putin's circle of silovarch chums and friendly billionaires, e.g. Kirill Shalamov (Putin's former son-in-law), Fursenko, Patrushev, Zolotov, Dyumin (a long rumored successor) The "oligarchs" (which they are not)... Read More
Just back from Portugal. Will share impressions in a later post (most are positive). I'll be doing quite a bit of traveling this summer. I'll be in London again soon [business], will probably stop by in Denmark this May [because a certain event can no longer take place in London for political reasons], will be... Read More
At this point I'm just wondering when neoliberalism.txt will finally lay off the Russiagate conspiracy theory. I suspect never. The neocons surrounding Trump have locked him into a never-ending spiral of escalation towards Russia in a hopeless bid to "prove" that he is not Putin's puppet. By striking Syria, Trump becomes "Presidential" in eyes of... Read More
Great map of the Ephemeral States of the Russian Civil War: The state collapse of the old order temporarily brought all sorts of strange new political formations into existence, as is the universal pattern ("the empire long united must divide"). The Idel Ural Republic. The Republic of North Ingria. Even a "Green Ukraine" in the... Read More
Official results: Official results with adjustment for fraud (via Kireev): As blogger Ivan Vladimirov noted, and as the above map confirms, Putin has become the President of ethnic Russians. This stands to reason. For instance, it's probably hard for many Dagestanis to see the appeal of Crimea. As opposed to, say, for the peoples of... Read More
Some headlines since that powerful take: China says relations with Russia at 'best level in history' China applauds Putin’s win, backs Russia on Skripal case, hails China’s ‘strategic partnership’ with Russia Global Times: Russian diplomat expulsions signal crude side of Western intention Russia & China to merge satellite tracking systems into one global navigation giant... Read More
In murder rates. Although gun laws in NY are tough, it's still incomparably easier to get firepower in there than in London. UK laws are so hardcore that their Olympics shooting team has to practice in France. There are also almost twice as many Negroes as a share of the population in NYC (25%) versus... Read More
Haven't been following it closely, so will refrain from commenting on it myself. Polls: Matt Forney (who is currently living in Hungary) is optimistic on Fidesz/Orban. Some comments from region expert reiner Tor during the past month: 1 The most reputable Hungarian analyst thinks Fidesz will win a narrow majority on Sunday. But because of... Read More
Belated comment on the Kemerovo fire that killed 64 people, including 41 children. 1. Tragedies like this are inevitable and will always happen, the best that could be done is working to minimize and mitigate them (personally I favor legislating exorbitant compensation for victims, since money > ethics so far as almost all businesses are... Read More
Georgia makes basically no sense from an HBD perspective. Georgians aren't very bright, and GDP growth has been unimpressive For all the praise heaped upon Georgia by deregulation advocates and libertarians, its institutional miracle hasn't been accompanied by an economic one; GDP per capita is only about 15% above peak Soviet levels. This is much... Read More
Share of human accomplishment by race: Graphed by Emil Kirkegaard, based on Charles Murray's Human Accomplishment data. gwern also made some graphs. Here is the same thing in absolute figures: Consequently: 1. Dark Ages were definitely a real thing (in Europe), recent attempts to revise this regardless. 2. The age of Asian predominance lasted from... Read More
The number of horses in the Russian Empire peaked in in 1913 and was around 35 million in 1916 (the US had about 20 million horses in 1915, and the two countries accounted for half the global equine population). At the time, they were almost all used in agriculture. The Soviet horse population plummeted during... Read More
The latest in our series of translations of Russian national-conservative intellectual Egor Kholmogorov. This massive opus, which will be published in two parts, is the closest thing there is to a condensed historiosophy of Kholmogorov's. Translated by Fluctuarius Argenteus Original: *** The modern Russian nation grew out of the Old Rus people, whose identity had... Read More
So, updates, updates. Our ROGPR podcast has been "acquired" by Sputnik & Pogrom. They are mainly interested in the videos produced by our main host Kirill Nesterov, which you can now follow at: https://sputnikipogrom.com/go/rog/ [includes transcripts] Only available in Russian, unfortunately. Apart from having my phone stolen, I also tried out the phall curry at... Read More
Certainly seems so to me. AltRight.com's Vincent Law was pretty optimistic at the start of 2017: "Overall assessment of the situation: Feels great, man." Only problem is - it appears that he either left them or was fired, which means that AltRight.com is no longer even worth following (Greg Hood is good but posts too... Read More
You must all be sick of me talking about the Russian elections so this is going to be my last post on it in this series. There is talk amongst my friends of a shift towards Putin amongst the socio-economic elites, which have long been voting against Putin. This is true, but only to the... Read More
Putin did poorly in 2012 against Prokhorov in the Far Abroad, with the billionaire liberal candidate level outright beating Putin in the US, Canada, Britain, and France [full list in Russian]. Russian Presidential elections abroad in 2012: Blue = Putin; Green = Prokhorov. However, while Putin failed to get an absolute majority even in Germany... Read More
Israel Shamir argues that Pavel Grudinin doing relatively well east of the Urals - then declining in the (much more populated) European Russia - constitutes evidence of fraud. This is unlikely to be true, since all the statisticians who regularly analyze Russian electoral fraud - needless to say, virtually all of them anti-Putin - agree... Read More
One of the more significant results of the election was that Putin got 92.2% in Crimea and 90.2% in Sevastopol. Moreover, these results were entirely fair. Here are the relevant graphs from Sergey Shpilkin, who approximates electoral fraud by the extent to which the vote for Putin becomes disproportional relative to the rest of the... Read More
Russia blogger Seva Bashirov made a map of the incidence of "suspicious votes" as per Sergey Shpilkin's method (not necessarily all fraudulent, but there's certainly a correlation) during these elections. Here is a similar map for the 2011 Duma elections (methodology is different, so scale isn't comparable). And in finer resolution: One of the previous... Read More
This is the startling hypothesis advanced by elections observer Alexander Kireev. Here's the thing. Elections in Chechnya have been completely falsified since 2003, reaching "totalitarian" levels of 99% turnout/99% pro-Kremlin vote by 2011-12 (versus the merely "authoritarian" 90/90 levels of the other Caucasus republics). In line with the reduction of fraud levels in the 2018... Read More
Meddling in the Russian elections. I voted for Zhirinovsky on March 18, 2018. Have said all there is to say on that in these articles: An Analysis of Zhirinovsky's Program Russia Elections 2018: Elections as Regime Referendums Putin 2018: The Scorecard With that out of the way, let's move on to the bigger picture. PS.... Read More
Putin Pepe. Once rare, now the market's flooded with them. I suppose this post can also double up as the Russian Elections 2018 thread. See archive: My final prediction: Turnout: 68.0% Baburin: 0.8% Grudinin: 9.7% Zhirinovsky: 7.8% Putin: 76.2% Sobchak: 2.0% Suraykin: 0.5% Titov: 0.5% Yavlinsky: 1.3% Spoiled ballots: 1.2% Putin needs to get his... Read More
Since the Russian election is taking place on the anniversary of Crimea's incorporation into Russia - an intentional play to increase turnout - now is as good a time as any to reflect on the complete failure of the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. The Adepts of Putin's "Clever Plan" have predicted all twelve of the Ukraine's... Read More
Via /r/europe. Is Poland even a Slavic country? The most "based" (not to mention correct) countries are Eastern Europe minus Poland, Portugal, and the Brits and Irish. Portugal is surprising. The usual explanation for why they don't have a lot of Muslims - just 0.4% of the population, which is a basically Visegrad number -... Read More
In his September 1, 2017 speech to incoming Russian schoolchildren, Putin made waves by proclaiming that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become "ruler of the world." This provoked a variety of reactions, from Elon Musk commenting on his belief that competition for AI superiority will be the likeliest cause of World War III... Read More
So it looks like the British reaction to The Skripal Affair is assuming very serious proportions, especially with the most recent allegations that the nerve agent in question was Novichok. (Incidentally, it is a gas so potent - an order of magnitude more so than VX - that carpet bombing a middle-sized city with it... Read More
Since nobody knows anything, as Alexander Mercouris points out, I haven't bothered following this closely. Still, I suppose it's big enough that I should post something about it. This comment from for-the-record seems not entirely implausible: What seems eminently clear is that whoever did it knew that this would be attributed to the Russians, and... Read More
1,000 children may have been victims in Britain's biggest ever child abuse scandal I haven't even heard of this city before this. Wiki says it has 150,000 people. Anyhow, the really important thing is that British police reacted quickly and operatively to not allow a couple of right-wing chicks into the UK. I don't know... Read More
Putin: Western MSM: Of course, Julia Ioffe is a Jewish ultranationalist who believes that simply talking about Russians' contributions to victory in WW2 is anti-Semitic: But pointing out context like this is why I, too, am an anti-Semite.
The latest issue of the Knight Frank World Wealth Report will not make happy reading for those of us who thought they were seeing tentative signs that Putin's Russia was making good progress on "nationalizing" its elites (e.g. multiple wealth amnesties, local Courchevel, local Hogwarts, etc). First, Russia's wealth structure remains extremely lop-sided. While there... Read More
Our resident Kholmogorov translator Fluctuarius Argenteus further develops his Russoshoe Theory: Some examples: A - Soviet nationalists/Prokhanov Unz.com columnists: Israel Shamir, Martyanov B - This blog's erstwhile commenter Lazy Glossophiliac Most Russian neo-Stalinists, Eurasianists The Saker (with caveats) The Spencerian Alt Right (esp. Nina Kouprianova) Tankies C - Mainstream Russian nationalists inc. Fluctuarius,
Steven Pinker - Enlightenment Now [buy; don't]. Rating: 1/10. My impression on getting through a third of Enlightenment Now is that it was essentially a summary of Better Angels, followed by running commentary on the graphs from Our World in Data and Gapminder. But I don't begrudge him for that, since I agree with him... Read More
Domodedovo is a great airport. Rationally organized. A surprisingly good Indian restaurant (Paprika). Giant portraits of Great Leader Zhirik. What more do you need? Here's what you don't need: Belgians and 2 cm of snow. Brussels Airlines was too cheap to even shill out for separate room, instead packing all the stranded passengers in a... Read More
What are they? Michael Kofman, who does seem to know what he is talking about and has studied the Russian language literature, has a very comprehensive summary. Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 1 – Kinzhal, Sarmat, 4202) Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 2 – 9M730?, Status-6, Klavesin-2R) How far... Read More
Via Cicerone, based on data from the CDC for 2016. Audacious Epigone has already written a post to which I have little to add in way of political analysis. You can compare these figures to native European TFR's here.
Remarkable consistency. I will be traveling to London as of tomorrow, so poasting will be light for the next 7-10 days. If my flight takes off - a whole bunch of them have been canceled because the Brits don't know what to do about snow. Meanwhile, the North Pole is positively balmy, at above freezing,... Read More
Quick recap of developments since the last update. First half consisted of boring economic and political stuff (e.g. increasing GDP by 50% over the next 6 years, implying 7% growth - as realistic as his promise to create 25 million hi-tech jobs last year). Nobody really cares about this. In the second half, wearing his... Read More
That's Dnepropetrovsk mayor Boris Filatov, close Kolomoisky acolyte and Maidan hardliner: Well, he's not wrong. This pretty much summarizes the whole affair, with these two comments [1, 2] filling in the rest of the details. There are serious questions over whether she actually did commit suicide, or was "helped" with it - she apparently shared... Read More
From the most recent Eurobarometer poll [see also other countries]: Strange patterns, at first glance. Even just a few years ago, this map would have been unrecognizable, with East European countries viewing Russia with relatively greater hostility than Western Europe. So what changed? Well, what I suspect happened is a European version of the return... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.