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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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This is the second in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is a Russia-specific offshoot to my previous post Where Do Babies Come from? For reference purposes, here is how Russia's actual TFR has developed since the end of WW2. Since I last posted substantially on the topic of Russia fertility preferences in 2009-2010, a lot more data has come in. Here is a survey... Read More
This is the first in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Financial Times: This looks like a minor growing trend. The Soviet Union sunk untold billions in development aid to the Third World, for questionable gain, and was rewarded with a knife in its back every so often. Bu
Matt Forney (now at Terror House Mag) is a manosphere/conservative writer who moved to Eastern Europe a couple of years ago. He had excellent coverage of Hungary and Orban's politics at his Medium blog, which he unfortunately deleted. However, you can still check out his excellent post 3 Depressing Realities About Living In Eastern Europe... Read More
But for all that, the US is remarkably civil. To date, 10 people have DIED in the French yellow vests protests. That's a Charlottesville every few days. Meanwhile, the US is having a national scandal over some people shouting and sneering at each other. *** Moreover, now that we're on an Americanophile tangent: There's some... Read More
A reader (and generous contributor) asks: Real life example of a trend I reported on a few months ago. I'll offer some of my own thoughts, but since there are plenty of East Europeans here, I am also opening it up for wider discussion. *** First, I assume this is obvious and that you have... Read More
Printout:
I have always been fascinated by the blogger Audacious Epigone's theory about Generation Zyklon - the surprising and counterintuitive idea that America's youngest cohort are rejective progressive propaganda in the schools and media, and becoming as "based" as their Silent forefathers. It's an important question, after all, and one that will determine to what extent... Read More
A few months ago Ron Unz, suggested I write an article about Bill Browder and the Magnitsky Act. I said I would think about it, but that I was not the most qualified person for the job. I have never investigated this affair deeply myself, so unless I was to spend a few days if... Read More
spandrell [Korean link]: Deep history in action? Vietnam: Rebelling against China since before Christ - turns commie (if with a marked nationalist brand, as Linh Dinh will tell you); hates China anyway, and building defense ties with the US. Korea: Near always a loyal vassal to China - gets bifurcated thanks largely to China, becomes... Read More
I am by no means a Serbia expert, and have to rely on other, more informed people - e.g., a couple of Serbian nationalist acquaintances - to tell me what is really going on there. Anyhow, here's the critical part which they are all agreed upon. Despite his "reputation" in the West, Vucic is not... Read More
Epstein's book about race differences in sport published in the West vs. a Russian translation of Dutton & Lynn's book about race differences in sport published in Russia. :LOL:
Further to my last post on the matter, I spent this evening collating all the most interesting maps I have on Russia, which I just published on my website: (Why not here? Because I want it to be a page that I can keep editing indefinitely - adding to, and occasionally, deleting. For instance, since... Read More
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
The main popular article on this topic that I am familiar with is Patrick Chovanec's The Nine Nations of China (written in the spirit of Garreau's and Woodard's work on North America). Commenter AquariusAnon provides an update with a focus on China's major cities and their ideological outlooks. His series of comments are reprinted below.... Read More
Ask and ye shall receive! Via Nightfox: Here is a partial list of worldwide opinion polls on genetic editing: https://www.geneticsandsociety.org/internal-content/cgs-summary-public-opinion-polls. Highlights below. (Sample sizes not listed are unavailable.) TL;DR US support for cognitive enhancements collapsed in the 1990s. Support for genetic editing appears to be higher outside the Hajnal line (see Turkey, Italy, Spain). U.K.,... Read More
From Everyday Life in Moscow during the Stalin Period by Georgy Andreevsky. Whoever penned this was arrested in 1939: Кто кричал «вся власть Советам!», / All you who shouted "All power to the Soviets!", Кто стрелял по юнкерам, / You who fired at the Junkers, Кто по Зимнему при этом / You who bombarded Winter... Read More
It was carried out a couple of weeks after China's CRISPRgate. Results are basically the same as for the July 2018 poll by PEW, in which 72% consider gene editing for treating a serious condition at birth appropriate but only 19% support it for intelligence augmentation. Other polls I'm aware of: Chinese poll in 2018... Read More
Blank slatists make economic projections: Russia overtaking Japan would be a REALLY tall order by 2030, even on PPP measures. It requires Russia grow an average 3% points more than Japan until 2030. Not absolutely impossible, but extremely unlikely, short of Japan's debt bubble unwinding in catastrophic fashion. Otherwise... Brazil, Indonesia - Virtually impossible Turkey... Read More
It's now been eleven years (and six days) since I started blogging. Since this is not that big of a milestone, I am not going to recap the history of how I got there; you can check out last year's post for that. Instead, I'm just going to talk of developments in 2018, and plans... Read More
My predictions for 2018. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability level versus their probability (e.g., for predictions at the 70% confidence level, perfect calibration would represent getting 7/10 of them correct). Predictions with a probability rating of less than 50% are converted... Read More
As I have pointed out, the jokers who dominate today's "Russia debate" such as Molly McKew have much less Russia expertise even than La Russophobe, the old bete noire of the Russia bloggers. Suffice to say that her entire shtick consists of inventing ever more and more deranged Russiagate conspiracy theories is something that even... Read More
In recent days, Russia has arrested the American spy Paul Whelan. This is widely viewed as retribution for the prosecution of Maria Butina. Perhaps the kremlins were finally cajoled into action by China's example. (Main theory making the rounds in Russiagate circles is that it is a ploy to arrange an exchange with Butina back... Read More
Apologies for the lack of new posts (or really even checking the comments) in recent weeks. Temporary and unexpected confluence of various events. An understandably slow December regardless, this year has been record breaking - almost twice as much traffic as in 2017 - and I expect acceleration to resume, now that I am fully... Read More
Here is how emigre journalist Bershidsky (who likes mass immigration to Europe but not to Saudi Arabia) sees the end of history (Russia edition): So Russia's fate is to be a mineral resource depot, dumping ground for Third Worlders, and cannon fodder for the retirement home and taxpayer funded mansion for Somalis better known as... Read More
I will admit that due to personal and work related reasons I got much less done this month than I hoped to. However, on the plus side, I have pretty much finished with furnishing my new apartment, and have largely ditched one commitment that was generally more trouble than it was worth. Along with an... Read More
It just strikes me that fiction writer extraordinary could have kept his profitable gig - and I mean profitable in the direct sense of the word, what with news now coming out he pocketed donations made out to Syrian orphans of his own invention - if he'd stuck to a few simple rules: First, he... Read More
There are often questions in the comments about Egor Kholmogorov's stance on various things, e.g. about how he reconciles his Orthodox beliefs with Russian ethnonationalism. So I prepared something different from our usual fare of serious longreads - a series of translations of his social media posts, where he briefly but succinctly addresses some of... Read More
How can you identify a cargo cult culture? (Or, as Thorfinnsson elegantly calls them, "fake and gay countries"?). Well, here's one thing I notice about many of them. They're obsessed - obsessed! - over naming conventions for their countries and cities in foreign languages. For instance, precisely nobody in The Netherlands - to the best... Read More
Infant mortality in Russia/USSR (thick dark green line), 1900-2016 (via genby). Thin brown line at the bottom represents the US rate. (Bottom most graph represents the US). Six distinct periods: Slow improvement during late Tsarism and 1920s. Stagnation during 1930s. Rapid improvements from 1940-1965 as antibiotics, modern obstetrics, etc. introduced. Near convergence to US by... Read More
Come to think of it, the Huawei Affair - an entirely transparent power play against China, as Jeffrey Sachs convincingly shows - is returning the world to the medieval era of hostage taking. It's been a long way building up to it. Still, Meng Wenzhou is a much bigger fish than the victims of previous... Read More
Russia harvested 133 million tons of grain in 2017, beating the all-time RSFSR record set in 1978. It has also been consistently harvesting more grain than in the Soviet years since the mid-2010s. Here it is in a wider historical perspective. Grain production in Russia from 1900-2012: Graph via @burckina-faso, a pro-Soviet blogger, so can... Read More
The data is based on Goertzel, Ted & al. (2012), Homicide Booms and Busts A Small-N Comparative Historical Study. The lead author kindly emailed me the data used to build their graphs (their version is on the right), which I used to construct the above graph of Russian historical homicide rates from 1875 to 2018.... Read More
Technology Review: Chinese scientists are creating CRISPR babies It's a popular meme that a China unencumbered by Judeo-Christian morality/superstitions (cross out as appropriate) will be more open to transhumanist technology. For instance, here is a typical statement of this argument from my friend Hank Pellissier:
Latest reports that Kiev is planning to impose martial law. Anyhow. Poroshenko's only real hope of getting reelected is by having a short victorious war (as I suggested back in May). Though the "victorious" part will be really hard.
This is what the journalist Oleg Kashin said a few days ago in a discussion at Echo of Moscow, one of Russia's premier liberal media outlets. Echo of Moscow journalist Evgenia Albats was not too happy with this: Kashin is of course entirely, objectively right about all this, as conclusively demonstrated by Neo-Nazi white supremacists... Read More
HBD blogger JayMan has recently made a blog post critiquing me for my "Hajnal denialism." I really don't know where the criticism comes from. A quick perusal of my website and Twitter reveals that I do think ancestral family systems, as explored in the works of Hajnal and Emmanuel Todd, has significant explanatory power. Heck,... Read More
A couple of months ago, I made an acquaintance with a provincial carpenter. This was rather convenient, since I would soon need to furnish my new apartment. I could either get a good quality but MDF-based factory made bed for around $300, or I could pay him $500 and get a very high quality bed... Read More
I'll go back to posting proper material soon enough, but in the interim, here's another open thread. *** * Glenn Greenwald: Trump DoJ prosecution of Assange is unprecedented threat to press freedoms but many vindictive Democrats support it * Atlantic: Declining marginal returns to science? In past few decades importance of new discoveries fell even... Read More
The Commieblock: Hopefully AquariusAnon appreciates this. I am very happy to see that Guillaume Durocher has joined The Unz Review. Only the best people! Here is a short intro to what he'll be writing about: You can browse his archives at Occidental Observer, Counter-Currents, and Radix. I a
One pretty good proxy for a country’s technological sophistication is its stock of supercomputers, which enable detailed simulations of phenomena as disparate as global climate, protein folding, and nuclear weapons reliability. It is also easily quantifiable, since the website Top500 releases lists of the world's top 500 supercomputers biannually. Countries Count System Share (%) Rmax... Read More
Robert Stark recorded this podcast a couple of weeks ago, in which the German nationalist Constantin von Hoffmeister also participated. You can listen to it here: Topics discussed:
Patriotism is the exact opposite of nationalism. Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism. By putting our own interests first, with no regard for others, we erase the very thing that a nation holds dearest, and the thing that keeps it alive: its moral values. - Emmanuel Macron (2018). He who does not love his mother... Read More
While I have read quite a few books on WW1, only a couple really "stand out": Niall Ferguson (1998) - The Pity of War: Explaining World War I [download] does justice to its subtitle, boldly reinterpreting most of the standard narrative through vivid statistical argumentation. For instance, the claims that there was widespread enthusiasm for... Read More
Latest via Alexander Gabuev, who is one of the best Russian China watchers. Highlights include: Sanctions busting trade & investment innovations; manufacturing, inc. civil aircraft (CR929) and heavy lift helicopters; Glonass/Beidou integration; experience exchange in AI, surveillance, social credit; replacing US as China's soybeans supplier, with investment in agriculture in the Russian Far East. Russia... Read More
The guy who temporarily replaces him is a powerlifting PC gamer. POWERFUL nomination! Instead of this gay drug war we can now get down to the really important issues, such as criminalizing in-game microtransactions.
From a recent report by the arch-neocon Henry Jackson Society: Those Russian informants would presumably be the 52% of Russians in Britain who voted for Puter in 2018. Congratulations to the Dark Lord of the Kremlin, Who Sees and Hears All, on raising this percentage from 28% in 2012. This was sarcasm, BTW. You would... Read More
What do the current legal travails of a Russian "oligarch" (he has zero power) in Monaco actually have to do with him having gotten involved in a real estate transaction ("money laundering") with Bad Orange Man a decade ago? Let's have a look at housing prices in Florida: As one can see, they did indeed... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.