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 Anatoly Karlin Archive
I watched the God Emperor's ascension to the Golden Throne at a bar night for American expats in Moscow. The mood there was largely pro-Trumpist, though obviously there was a self-selection mechanism involved. Everyone disliked HRC, though there were a fair number of Bernouts. I got into a discussion with a reasonably influential official from... Read More
Russian human rights lawyer Matthew Tszen speculates: I suspect that the global Womens March was originally conceived of as a sort of victory parade to mark the inauguration of the first US female president (Hillary Clinton). And only the unexpected victory of Trump forced them to change not even so much its character, as its... Read More
I noticed a very interesting trend in recent days. Kenneth "Russians bombed the last hospital in Aleppo" Roth, executive director of Human Rights "people who disagree with me are cattle" Ioffe, professional Soviet refugee and Ivanka Trump's secret admirer New York like they're all working from the same script: Nobody came out to support the... Read More
Well I would certainly like him to stay, but for some reason he's decided to start making things really hard for himself. Having remained silent on Obama, the guy most responsible for sending him into exile, Snowden has chosen this moment of all moments to make good with the very Lügenpresse that once smeared him... Read More
Alexander Dugin is continuously trouted out by the Western media as this gray cardinal of the Kremlin, who is the "brain", the favorite philosopher, and even the Rasputin behind Putin and no doubt soon behind Trump as well. The banal reality is that Dugin is, at least in relative terms, far better known in the... Read More
*** Kong, Augustine et al. - 2016 - Selection against variants in the genome associated with educational attainment *** This paper makes the case that there has been a decline in the prevalence of genes increasing propensity for more education (POLYEDU) in Iceland from 1910-1975. Here are some of the key points: The main mechanism... Read More
Here: “Nuclear weapons should be completely prohibited and destroyed over time to make the world free of nuclear weapons,” Xi said, according to an official translation. There's just a few problems: (1) In a world without MAD, China will eventually become an unrivalled military hegemon, by dint of its unrivalled industrial capacity. (2) Of more... Read More
manyukhin-tower-of-sin
Fundamentally solve the “intelligence problem,” and all other problems become trivial. The problem is that this problem is a very hard one, and our native wit is unlikely to suffice. Moreover, because problems tend to get harder, not easier, as you advance up the technological ladder (Karlin, 2015), in a “business as usual” scenario with... Read More
Last year, I resumed my New Year's tradition of posting annual predictions. I recently analyzed the success rate of those predictions for 2016, the year when meme magic became real. Here are my predictions for 2017: Predictions - World World Affairs & Conflicts No major conflict (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia that involves China... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb's idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about what has come to be known as The Current Year. Like Scott Alexander, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right... Read More
Not even a week in Moscow, and I get contacted by a Zvezda TV journalist requesting an interview about life in America and why I returned to Russia. In a deserted billiards room, I began talking about my theory that there is a civility-friendliness spectrum, with Britain on one end of it, Russia on the... Read More
There is a new expert survey out which, amongst other things, queries the world's top psychometrics experts on the future of the FLynn effect (Flynn + Lynn - clever). James Thompson has a summary at his column. The two most important reasons for the end of the FLynn effect in the West are regarded to... Read More
In international sociological comparisons of happiness Russia and the ex-USSR have become pretty much bywords for very low levels of happiness and life satisfaction. Here is a not atypical graph showing Russia as one several extreme outliers. However, polling evidence suggests this is an increasingly dated view, much as demographic data has already long invalidated... Read More
Rapidly becoming who I am. So I have fulfilled the demands of some of my most committed detractors and self-deported myself back to Russia. My first sociological observation on landing in Domodedova this Tuesday, and perhaps the one most germane to Unz.com readers, was that about 100% of the airport cleaning stuff were Uzbeks and... Read More
I am leaving for Moscow tomorrow (today?). There is a surfeit of excellent people in London, and I have met some of the very best during my time here, including the Russia analyst Alexander Mercouris, the psychometrist James Thompson (who recently moved to this website), the futurist Anders Sandberg, and a few others who would... Read More
Now that we have established that immigration is not much good, let's take a look at another component undergirding our transition to Idiocracy - the differential fertility rates of different IQ groups. This is a highly contentious topic, and not just on account of the usual political kurfuffles, but also on real disagreements as to... Read More
Well, apart from the Gulf states - thanks in large part to coming from such a low base that even subcontinental coolies are an improvement over the natives. Otherwise, the cognitive impact of immigration - at least as proxied by the differences in performance on the PISA tests between the national average, which includes immigrant... Read More
Robert Stark has just released his latest podcast in which we discussed all sorts of topics including My American Decade along with co-host "PillEater." http://www.starktruthradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Anatoly-Karlin-Futurism.mp3 Robert Stark is a journalist who specializes in interviewing various interesting figures from the Alt fringes. So you could I suppose view him as The Unz Review on podcasts. Here... Read More
The commenter "m" did some calculations to work out the relative performance of different countries in PISA vs. TIMSS, and in Math vs. Science. m writes: Dimension 1 is overall performance across all 4 (PISA Math, PISA Science, TIMMS Math, TIMMS science). Everything goes up with this dimension. Highest performers: Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Japan. Weakest... Read More
It's just a bit ironic that the figurehead of a movement (best known to the general public as the author of the world's most popular Harry Potter fanfic) that emphasizes "politics is the mindkiller" has lapsed into all-out Putin-Trump Derangement Syndrome and fake news generation. Not entirely unexpected, though - Arthur Chu, an SJW activist... Read More
Source: https://www.oecd.org/pisa/data/ Report: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2015-results-volume-i_9789264266490-en Notes There were problems with data collection in Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia, so their results must be treated with caution. Furthermore: "Because the results of Kazakhstan in 2015 are based only on multiple-choice items, they cannot be reliably compared to the results of other countries, nor to Kazakhstan’s results in previous... Read More
Here is the download link: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/pisa-2015-results-volume-i_9789264266490-en First Impressions (1) China B-S-J-G (Beijing-Shanghai-Jiangsu-Guangdong) has a PISA-equivalent national IQ of 102. This is actually worse than the IQ=103 leaked 2009 results based on 12 provinces, which I posted about a few years ago. Even more curiously, Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangsu all constitute three of the top five... Read More
The TIMSS 2015 results for math and science are out and the results are pretty predictable. All the data can be conveniently downloaded from here: http://timss2015.org/download-center/. See also Steve Sailer's post from yesterday. Math (8th grade) Science (8th grade) An extension of Heiner Rindermann's observation on the differences between the two major international standardized tests... Read More
Transparency International has released the Global Corruption Barometer 2016 for Europe: The map above shows the answer to the most interesting question in the survey: "Did you or any member of your household make an unofficial payment or gift when using [a public service] over the past 12 months"? In the last survey from 2013,... Read More
Based on FIDE stats as of 2016. Without doing any complicated analysis it's pretty clear that the main three factors are: National IQ - Though not absolutely critical, possibly because the correlation between chess skill and IQ is only a moderate r=0.35. (Grabner 2013) Not East Asian - They focus on go instead, where the... Read More
The entire rigmarole around "fake news" is very curiously timed. So far as I'm aware the general "theory" behind it was primarily developed in the past year or so by Peter Pomerantsev and Edward Lucas under the aegis of the Legatum Institute. Edward Lucas is a Russophobe even by the standards of Economist journalists (suffice... Read More
On November 23 the European parliament adopted a non-binding resolution on fighting Islamist propaganda and "information warfare" against the EU. I was surprised too but no, apparently by that they didn't have in mind jihadist shill Julian Roepcke, and the Lügenpresse that did more than anyone else to discredit the EU by remaining silent on... Read More
In the 1950s, in terms of GDP per capita, Cuba was at the level of Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Mexico, Portugal, Greece, and Spain (!), and considerably above Brazil and the Dominican Republican. Today, it is far behind all of them, having dropped from 20% of US GDP per capita then to just slightly more... Read More
Trump has fulfilled the prophesies of Kek. That was clear pretty early on, as soon as it became clear he was winning Florida and the markets started tumbling as they realized the false song of globalism was about to end. That is because Trump and his protectionist platform was almost certainly going to perform much... Read More
Final EC Prediction - Will be very happy to be wrong. I do think there is a Shy Trumpist factor, which will really make itself felt in rustbelt Michigan, but I fear that it might be canceled out by higher Hispanic turnout, especially in Florida and Nevada. The person who likes to bomb a couple... Read More
The SF Bay Area. As I am leaving the United States for an indeterminate period of time, now would likely not be a bad time to share some of my impressions of what is still, when all is said and done, an extraordinarily effective, dynamic, and successful nation. It would be redundant to compare to... Read More
This October, I will be following the "advice" of some of my most ardent critics and literally "going back to Russia." I'm joking, of course. I don't care for those trolls. That argument was always self-refuting because I had left in Russia in the early 1990s as a dependent. My parents had left because the... Read More
Over the years I have studiously avoided commentary on MH17 because of the banal fact that I am not an expert on plane crash official Dutch inquiry that has just released its findings says that it was downed by a Buk missile that came from rebel-controlled territory. Many serious people have come to other conclusions,... Read More
Evan El-Amin / Shutterstock.com
Contrary to my expectations, I think Trump lost his first debate. He started out strong, stronger than HRC, but then declined a lot in the third round on foreign policy - on what should have been his strongest round. And he really lost it at the end when they pulled out the woman card. I... Read More
As I've pointed out, support for the pro-Western agenda in Russia is highly circumscribed, usually in the low single digits, never higher than 10%. However, much like with divisions in Europe, Britain, and the US - where the globalist agenda (HRC, "Stay," etc) are supported by multinational and cosmpolitan rich elites in the big cities... Read More
(1) United Russia was polling at around 40% according to different pollsters (both state-owned FOM and VCIOM, as well as independent Levada) in the run-up to the elections. However, adjusting for undecideds would raise it to 55%. This is in line with United Russia's official tally of 54.14%. That said, it should be noted that... Read More
Nothing illustrates China's meteoric rise as some well chosen numbers. By the end of the 1990s, China had come to dominate the mainstays of geopolitical power in the 20th century - coal and steel production. As a consequence, it leapt to the top of the Compositive Index of National Capability, which uses military expenditure, military... Read More
Putin Derangement Syndrome and Trump Derangement Syndrome continue moving towards an ever more perfect is: Putin is not actually a proponent of extreme nationalism, let along its godfather. At least, not according to the people who would presumably know best: The vast majority of, like, actual Russian nationalists. They tend to consider Putin as a... Read More
Another August, another war scare. Intermittent reports of Russian military forces "staging" near Ukraine. Are the guns about to honor the title of a famous history book once again? Almost certainly not. Or at least, not by Russia's hand. (1) Though you could play a drinking time for every mention of "Gleiwitz" in conjunction with... Read More
In terms of content, the Weisses of this world are a dime a dozen. So why "expose" yet another neocon propagandist? Because he is also very nasty, and very dangerous - as Richard Silverstein's comprehensive profile of Michael D. Weiss, just published at The Unz Review, convincingly argues. So far as (functional) psychopathy goes, he... Read More
At his blog Greg Cochran raises the issue of the Great Stagnation. Basically, GDP per capita growth rates throughout the developed world have plummeted relative to the levels of 1950-1973 (the years of the miracle economy, Wirtschaftswunder, trentes glorieuses, etc). They are however more or less typical of growth rates earlier in the century, substantially... Read More
Thomas Theiner, a businessman expat who has lived in Ukraine for the past 5 years, on what "business in Ukraine is really like": It was not supposed to be this way. Everyone knew that Ukraine was notoriously corrupt under President Viktor Yanukovych’s regime, which demanded a share of every deal and business. The anger at... Read More
  Online version with hyperlinks: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/ea-and-intelligence-theory/ I am a blogger and independent researcher who is interested in the intersections of intelligence theory, futurism, economics, and geopolitics. Here is a summary of my ideas relevant to Effective Altruism: Intelligence is central to explaining the wealth and poverty of nations, so a good understanding of it is... Read More
Today I was at a talk with Robin Hanson to promote his book THE AGE OF EM hosted by the Bay Area Futurists. As an academic polymath with interests in physics, computer science, and economics, Hanson draws upon his extensive reading across these fields to try to piece together what such a society will look... Read More
In a recent interview with ABC for which he is now taking flak, Trump said: I’m gonna take a look at it. But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that, also. As usual, Trump is right... Read More
Scene from Alien Girl (2010). "Mafia is not a Russian word," retorted Putin, in a brusque exchange with Italian journalists questioning him on the rule of law in Russia in 2000. View it as a forceful reframe or a case of aggrieved butthurt as you wish, but he has a point. Despite the comparisons made... Read More
"The churches are our barracks, the bells are our helmets, the Kremlin spires are our bayonets, and Putin trolls are our soldiers..." ... Well, it doesn't have quite the ring of the better known poem that, having once landed Erdogan in jail, has now ensured his survival. So people are now asking: Without Erdogan's closer... Read More
Turkey has a proud and rich history of military coups. As analysts tirelessly point out, they are even sanctioned by the Constitution as a means of preserving secularism. However, those days have come to an end. The abortive coup of the past few days was in all likelihood the dying gasp of 20th century Turkey.... Read More
The only two major world political factions that ever seem to be willing to shed their own blood for their beliefs are nationalists and Islamists. In Ukraine it was the hardened Neo-Nazi thugs of Right Sector who hammered in the last few nails in the Yanukovych regime. They were also reliably the best units of... Read More
Three hours after this story began to break it's increasingly clear that we are seeing the biggest Happening of 2016 to date, far overshading the Nice terrorist attacks yesterday. As Lenin purportedly said, "Sometimes decades pass and nothing happens; and then sometimes weeks pass and decades happen." The initial regime response was to blame the... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.