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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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Navalny claimed that the state-owned pollsters VCIOM were artificially inflating Putin's figures, so his Anti-Corruption Fund will start releasing their own weekly polls, the first of which has just been released in Navalny's latest video address. Reminder that Putin got 66% in the last FOM poll, and 73% in the last VCIOM poll. FBK poll:... Read More
Turnout might be much lower than even the record low (60%) than I posited. Leonid Bershidsky in a recent article: Campaigning from Putin has been lackluster to say the least. Main development is that the campaign website has finally been launched ( http://putin2018.ru/ ). At the time Bershidsky wrote his post, it didn't even have... Read More
On the eve of the 2016 US elections, I got to talking with a Jew at one of the futurist meetups who was hyperventilating about the prospect of Trump winning. He unironically thought there was a risk of actual deportations of immigrants to concentration camps and pogroms against Jews. Typical Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferer, who... Read More
Freedom in the World 2018 is out now: "Democracy in Crisis." This makes the deep state neocon goons who run that outfit very sad. My prediction from 2017: Last minute misgivings aside, this has indeed happened. While FH still thinks Civil Rights in the US are at 1/7 (where 1 is best and 7 is... Read More
The next Czech President will probably be the guy who signed a "scientists against fear and hatred" in response to Zeman's "Islamophobia" and expressed concern about Russian elections hacking. Not only did the tipsy, politically incorrect Zeman underperform his poll numbers by around 4% points in the first round of the elections, but current polls... Read More
Who could have expected this? Other maps of Italy:  
Charles Bausman (Russia Insider): It's Time to Drop the Jew Taboo This is objectively true. Heck, don't ask me, someone who writes for a site famous for its "mix of far-right and far-left anti-Semitic crackpottery" (as per the Jew Cathy Young). Ask J-P
In my previous post, I posted this map of how comfortable Europeans are regarding love relationships of their children in regards to race, and AP provided the original stats. I am always a bit saddened that Russia doesn't participate in the Eurobarometer polls, but fortunately, I found that VCIOM asked rather similar questions in polls... Read More
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4 Sometime in the 1990s, a critical mass of the American cognitive elite - that part of it which controls the bullhorns, anyway - must have decided that gay marriage was great. Now those people are usually well-spoken and articulate, with very high verbal IQs, while their opponents... tend to leave... Read More
I don't know about that. That said, it does have several... what we might diplomatically call dubious distinctions. So far as I'm aware, it is the only country in the in the world to kick off its independence with literal white genocide - the real deal, not some half-hearted ethnic cleansing. It is now the... Read More
After the surprise Communist candidacy of Pavel Grudinin, the main question was always going to be whether he would merely inherit Zyuganov's ratings - or climb well above them by invigorating Russians with the prospect of a new face in politics. We had to wait a couple of weeks longer than usual due to the... Read More
Well, we're well into 2018 now. Soros joins the many Very Respectable People - Anders Aslund has excelled in this regard more than most - who have predicted all several dozens of Russia's past zero collapses.
London Student: Exposed: London’s eugenics conference and its neo-Nazi links Some background: This scandal broke out when Toby Young, a conservative British political figure with a colorful history of Twitter controversies, was appointed to a government board on education - and removed almost instantaneously, after this story broke in The London Student, and was subsequently... Read More
Some numbers: There are about 300,000 babies born to foreign citizens in the US every year, of which the vast majority will be accruing to Central American illegals. Only an estimated 40,000 occurs due to birth tourism. There are no hard statistics on this. However, some cursory searching gave me this thesis by Brandon J.... Read More
January 9, 2017 marks the day I began blogging a decade ago.   I suppose now's as good a time as any to launch my second panhandling drive. If you like the words that I write, and want me to write more of them, you can personally make that happen: http://akarlin.com/donations/   My first (non-intro)... Read More
The Alt-Right’s Asian Fetish (Audrea Lim): My blog has been recognized as an alt-right forum by the NYT, cool. Admin of /r/hapas: 2017 full list of Neo-Nazis, alt-rights, conservatives, white supremacists who fetish / marry / date Asian women He is clearly obsessed with the topic and overdoes the theme, but still, there’s a distinct... Read More
Russian Ministry of Defense: Security system of the Russian Khmeimim air base and Russian Naval CSS point in the city of Tartus successfully warded off a terrorist attack with massive application of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) through the night of 5th – 6th January, 2018. As evening fell, the Russia air defence forces detected 13... Read More
History - discoveries, revolutions, innovations - has always been made by the select few: The extraordinarily intelligent, and the extraordinarily driven and curious. It is easy to proxy the former (IQ tests), but quantifying the latter is more difficult. My suggestion: Look at the demographic composition of the "out of left field" groups whose equivalents... Read More
I have long warned that Islamic State's defeat will be a double-edged sword. Positive: Syrian government-held territory effectively doubles, though mostly in terms of useless, depopulated desert. Negative: Status quo returns to that of several years ago, i.e. back when Assad was "killing his own people" so far as the Western press, without the superlative... Read More
Some pretty strange things going on at Khmeimim. 1. On Jan 3, 2018, Kommersant reported: The destruction of seven (!) planes at the Russian airbase in Syria, including four Su-24, two Su-35C, and one An-72 transport. More than ten servicemen were injured An ammo dump was destroyed This was supposedly the result of an Islamist... Read More
Commenter Polish Perspective draws attention to a startling new statistic: In my 2016 longread, I pointed out that China was converging with America on a broad range of hi-tech economy indicators. Now yes, Chinese papers have a reputation for shoddiness, being worse on average than Western ones, but absolute values do matter, and quality is... Read More
Women are, fundamentally, conformists. That is, they choose the "handshakeworthy" option largely regardless of ideology. In the West that would be the culturally pozzed mainstream, i.e. anything but nationalism or the hard right. This explains the Alt Right's dim views on women in politics, culminating in memes like "thot patrols" and "white sharia" at its... Read More
Commenter German_reader summarizes an anonymous Iranian journalist about the protests there. Hilarious if true. And it just might be: Comment from an Iranian on Patrick Lang's blog: Evidently, the protests were initiated by political enemies of Rouhani in Mashhad. That city is referred to in Iran as a "hizbollahi city" - "Party of God City".... Read More
Previous predictions/calibrations: 2017: Predictions - Calibration 2016: Predictions - Calibration Please note that my "Blackpill Timeline" is a what-if scenario, not a prediction. While percentages for existing predictions will remain fixed, I reserve the right to add more predictions during the next couple of days. Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50% BTC... Read More
Epistemic status: Low. I don't know Farsi. I don't particularly follow Iran. That said, I am hardly alone in this. Bryan MacDonald: "Even I’m kinda astonished by how many American “Russian experts” have suddenly become “Iran experts” in the past 48 hours. молодцы товарищи!! #ачтивмеасурес" 1. Widely divergent reports about how many people are protesting.... Read More
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb’s idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about 2017. See also predictions and results for 2016. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability... Read More
Last week, I wrote about the 10 ways in which life in Russia is better than America. Now it's time for Uncle Sam to have his due.   Typical Moscow sleeper suburb. Although Russian prices are 2x cheaper than America's, the blunt fact is that wages are also 4x-5x lower. Consequently, the standard of living... Read More
Conventional wisdom on the Russian elections: Positive interpretation: Russian elections give Russians more real ideological choice (conservative centrists, Communists, nationalists, liberals) than American ones (conservative neoliberals, liberal neoliberals). Negative interpretation: Putin and the party of power are assured of winning through overwhelming administrative resources, state media, and a side of electoral fraud. The other parties... Read More
Latest development: The KPRF has nominated 57 year old Pavel Grudinin as its candidate. This is the first time that the KPRF has gone with someone other than old warhorse Zyuganov since 2004, when Nikolay Kharitonov got an unimpressive 13.8% in the Presidential elections. Coming from a blue-collar background, Grudinin graduated from an agricultural engineering... Read More
RATING: 9/10 NOTES: "Russia's 300." Also reminiscent of Ironclad, and perhaps Valhalla Rising. See my other reviews here: http://akarlin.com/reviews/ The Legend of Kolovrat (English: Furious) is a reasonably faithful retelling of the Tale of the Destruction of Ryazan [in Russian; not aware of an English translation], a medieval chronicle describing the Mongol invasion of Rus... Read More
1. I do not consider it likely that North Korea will have the means to successfully deliver nukes to population concentrations in S. Korea, Japan, or the US. As far as I know this is expert consensus. It has had impressive successes in both nuclear weaponry and long-range rocketry in the past year, but there... Read More
It has now been exactly a year since I returned to Russia. One of the questions I get asked the most from Russians and foreigners alike is whether I enjoy living here, or whether I am disappointed. My answer is that it fell within my "range of expectations". I like to think that this is... Read More
But just because American GIs fought Nazis didn't necessarily make them Maoist thugs, as @tcjfs pointed out. And another user, @pnin1957, brought up statistics suggesting that the American GIs who stormed the beaches of Normandy would have been veritable shitlords today. These are the results of a 1942 survey of white enlisted personnel in the... Read More
Might as well get this out of the way now so as not to sully the New Year cheer. Here's a pessimistic (for some) but plausible (I think) way things will develop in the next couple of years. 1. Trump cedes key positions to globalists and neocons. This has already happened; for all intents and... Read More
At the tail end of the Cold War, there was an incredible atmosphere of Americanophilia throughout the USSR, including amongst Russians. Blue - approve of USA; orange - disapprove. Around 75%-80% of Russians approved of the United States around 1990, versus <10% disapproval. By modern standards, this would have put Russia into the top leagues... Read More
Cyberpunk Moscow. Sold off most of my Bitcoins when they were at $11k (1,000% profit, but from a very low base, so not rich). Ironically, what were monetarily very modest dribbles over the past two years that I have been taking Bitcoin donations (http://akarlin.com/donations/) have leapfrogged PayPal and become comparable to the sum total of... Read More
German tech guy notes that Europe barely has a presence in the tech sector. Hardware dominated by East Asians; Europeans used to do this, but Phillips, Nokia had their heyday many years ago. Internet infrastructure (e.g. cloud, DNS) dominated by the United States, though China has its own self-contained ecosystem. Platforms (operating systems, social networks,... Read More
A couple of memes that you can only find in the most autistically glorious corners of /pol/. If we view history as an evolutionary competition between societies and ideas, it seems obvious that primitivism would be the most self-defeating - and consequently, self-refuting - ideology on the planet. While transhumanism is accelerationism maxed, the most... Read More
Mastering Chess and Shogi by Self-Play with a General Reinforcement Learning Algorithm 2016!Stockfish, the product of a decade's worth of iterative development by bright humans, was at around Elo 3300, and yet AlphaZero blasted it with 28 wins, 72 draws, and zero losses out of 100 games after just 4 hours of playing itself. But... Read More
This is one possible interpretation of a recent report in Vedomosti, which analyzed a Russian Ministry of Defense tender for military insurance for the years 2018-2019. Included within was detailed Russian military mortality statistics for the 2012-2016 period, lifting the lid on a veil of secrecy on such matters since 2010. 2005 2012 2013 2014... Read More
Big surprise. /s Lots of boring and repetitive takes out there, so I'll write about something different; maybe this too will be boring, but at least it's probably unique. Here is how three of the leading lights of the Russian nationalist movement, the Two Egors and Igor Strelkov, reacted to this news. Egor Kholmogorov approves,... Read More
Results of PIRLS 2016 (4th Graders) have just come out (h/t Polish Perspective). The official website is somewhat of a pain to navigate, and there doesn't appear to be any single master report, but fortunately they left their root directory unblocked so you can just look at all the charts and Excel tables here: http://timssandpirls.bc.edu/pirls2016/international-results/wp-content/uploads/structure/PIRLS/... Read More
My article on the history and present reality of Russian IQ has just been published at Sputnik i Pogrom, with its trademark beautiful graphics: Русская Ноосфера: масштабный обзор уровня IQ по регионам России. The pièce de résistance: Without undue exaggeration, I believe this is the most comprehensive popular article on this topic in the Russian... Read More
The Franco-German media organization Arte recently produced a documentary about the decline of global average IQ. What courage in the Current Year! What resolve! Not only do they treat IQ as a legitimate concept, but are even willing to seriously contemplate whether it is declining, and what could be done about it. Could the tide... Read More
PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe's population in 2050. Map of Muslim share of each European country today and in 2015 (High scenario). Here are the assumptions behind each of them: Low: All migration into Europe stops from 2016. Muslims still increase from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050... Read More
Yesterday there was another poll on the Russian Presidential elections in 2018, this time from FOM (although state-owned, my impression is that they aren't any less accurate than the independent - and somewhat oppositionist - Levada). Adjusting for undecideds/no shows, the results if elections were to be held tomorrow are as follows: Putin - 84%,... Read More
Assuming that it will be just between these four, I think it's going to go something like this: Note that Sobchak and any [liberal candidate] can be substituted for Navalny. (Also TBH, I think Navalny has a chance of getting 10% - see below). If other candidates (but not Navalny) run, for instance, Grigory Yavlinsky... Read More
Guangzhou, China (/r/Cyberpunk) Some time ago a commenter asked me about the state of China Studies in Russia, an issue that is pretty germane as they increasingly align with each other. TL;DR - Catastrophic. Simply put, Russia does not have the cognitive tools to understand the country that Kremlin talking points describe as Russia’s "strategic... Read More
I don't follow the conflict very closely nowadays. I have no special "inside," there is no progress, and what little does happen is depressing more often than not. The events of the past few days in the Lugansk People's Republic hew to this same pattern. The best account to date is probably that of Alexander... Read More
Dmitry Hvorostovsky, one of the Russia's best and most beloved artists, died this week of brain cancer.   * Andrew Higgins: Why Putin’s Foes Deplore U.S. Fixation on Election Meddling One of the few points on which many svidomy Ukrainians and progressive Americans differ with Russian liberals is that while the former basically view Putin... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.