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When China Leads the World
Hegemony vs. Humane Authority
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By using force and pretending to benevolence the hegemon will certainly have a large state. By using virtue and practicing benevolence the wise ruler will achieve humane authority. Mencius.

In the course of his study of the Peloponnesian War Thucydides, the fifth century BC Greek historian, claimed that interstate relations are based on might, not right, and that states’ strategic interactions follow a recurrent pattern: while a change in the hierarchy of weaker states does not ultimately affect a given system, disturbances in the order of stronger states upset its stability. He said that lesser states strive to gain power at the expense of others because stronger states, hegemons, ‘do as they please while the weak suffer what they must.’

Modern thinkers theorize[1]Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Empirical Assessment. Michael C. Webb and Stephen D. Krasner. Review of International Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2, Special Issue on the Balance of Power (Apr., 1989), pp. 183-198. Cambridge University Press that hegemony has three components: material power, an accepted image of world order and institutions that legitimize the use of military force, and observe that the United States used all three to institutionalize its hegemony after World War II, in what became known as the Washington Consensus. The US insisted that Athenian democracy is the only legitimate form of government and enforced its claim through its military, the United Nations, the US dollar, the World Bank, the media and numerous political, technical and scientific bodies. It rewarded conforming states and punished or excluded those, like China, that judged government legitimacy on performance rather than ideology. Lesser states could revise their native ideology–as Sweden did by abandoning pacifist socialism–or attempt to universalize their own cultural values and replace the hegemon’s norms–as China, based on its long history of world leadership, is currently doing.

An early Chinese thinker, Xunzi[2]Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power. By Yan Xuetong, proposed that, though hegemons know how to win wars, “The ruler who makes his own state act correctly will attain international primacy.” The domestic determines the international and since humane authority–based on morality rather than power–is superior to hegemony it is more important to win over people than territory. States wishing to exercise humane authority must be the first to respect the norms they advocate and leaders of high ethical reputation and great administrative ability will attract other states. “To be compassionate in great matters and overlook the small makes one fit to become lord of the covenants. Loving friends, being friendly with the great, rewarding your allies and punishing those who oppose you, the lord of the covenants has a definite duty and his moral standing should match it.” Presiding over the meetings of other states grants international recognition of humane authority. Two centuries later, Confucius expressed the principle thus, “Superiors and inferiors relate to each other like wind and grass: grass must bend when the wind blows over it”.

China’s bid to re-establish its leadership after a two century hiatus has been a national goal since Mao[3]“Strengthen Party Unity and Carry Forward Party Traditions” (1956) China’s economy overtook America’s fifty-eight years later. warned colleagues, “To overtake the United States is not only possible but absolutely necessary and obligatory. If we don’t, the Chinese nation will be letting the world down and we won’t be making much of a contribution to humanity. If we fail we will be wiped from the face of the earth.”

Fifty years after his warning China founded the world’s most powerful military and security partnership, the Shanghai Cooperative Organization, the SCO. With a regional anti-terrorism center in Uzbekistan, a business council in Moscow and a permanent secretariat in Beijing, four nuclear states among its members, three major economies, most of the world’s energy resources, half of the world’s population and one-fourth of global GDP, the SCO unites Russia, India, and Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey are in varying stages of participation).

Four years later President Hu[4]Build a Harmonious World of Lasting Peace and Common Prosperity. Speech by Hu Jintao at the UN Summit, New York, September 15, 2005 asked the UN General Assembly for “new ways to solve conflicts in international society featuring mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination–distinct from the law of the jungle and power politics–to create peaceful, mutual, win-win benefits and development across the world.” In 2013 his successor, President Xi, proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, based Hu’s principles. Focusing on policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and closer people-to-people ties, the BRI integrates four billion people in one-hundred thirty countries and thirty international organizations across Eurasia, Africa, Latin America and the South Pacific. The BRI is changing economies, trade, logistics, communications, international relations and even geography by building power plants in Pakistan, train lines in Hungary and ports from Africa to Greece. The new alliance is exporting China’s development model, replacing Western institutions and refashioning the global economic order by forging new ties, creating new markets, deepening economic connections and strengthening diplomatic ties with one trillion dollars in annual infrastructure spending. The European Union is considering joining the BRI.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi[5]Wang Yi, ‘Exploring the Path of Major-Country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics’, Foreign Affairs Journal, No. 10 (2013), p. 14. explained the model, “Throughout its five-thousand year history the Chinese nation has developed the humanistic-oriented concept of loving all creatures as if they were of our species and all people as if they were our brothers, the political philosophy of valuing virtue and balance, the peaceful approach of love, non-aggression and good-neighborliness, the idea of peace as of paramount importance and harmony without uniformity, as well as the personal conduct of treating others in a way that you would like to be treated, and helping others succeed in the same spirit as you would want to succeed yourself. These traditional values, with their unique oriental flavor, provide an endless source of invaluable cultural asset for China’s diplomacy.”

Thousands of miles of roads, rail lines, pipelines and fiberoptic cables have slashed communications costs across Eurasia and put the region at the forefront of 5G deployment: oil and gas pipelines from Pakistan’s new port of Gwadar, on the Persian Gulf, to Kunming, China bypass the Malacca Straits; the Pan-Asia Railway Network is linking Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia and North Korea–proposed as the development hub for Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, work continues on six rail lines and inland rail terminals, thirty cross-border transmission and communications projects and four deep ocean ports that will create Africa’s first transcontinental railway. BRI trade has grown seventeen percent annually since 2013 and preparations for the official BRI launch in 2021 include scholarships for thousands of students from BRI countries.

In 2018, Xi signed another one-hundred billion dollar trade and economic agreement, this time with the Eastern Europe Economic Union, EEEU–Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Russia has begun work on the Western end of a high speed rail line designed to run from Moscow to Beijing and, in 2019, added a new dimension: the Polar Sea Route, ‘connecting northeastern, eastern and southeastern Asia with Europe.’ Russia’s President Putin proposes to create a single, integrated market from the Pacific to the Atlantic with the EEEU, the BRI, the SCO and ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam).

Then there’s the massive Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP, a free trade agreement between ASEAN and Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand: 3.4 billion people with a total GDP of fifty trillion dollars, forty percent of world GDP. The RCEP is the world’s largest economic bloc, covering nearly half of the global economy and accounting firm PwC estimates its GDP will reach $250 trillion, half of global GDP, in 2050 and increase global real incomes by $286 billion per year. By 2045 the entire Eurasian continent will be bound by treaties, roads, railways, ports, fiberoptic cables, electrical grids and pipelines: a new world order under China’s humane authority.

To knit these alliances more permanently, in 2016 Beijing launched the Global Electric Interconnect, GEIDCO, a grid of ultra-high voltage lines transmitting clean energy around the globe continually, with the sun. By 2019 GEIDCO had seven regional offices, forty global offices, six-hundred regional and national members and invested $1.6 trillion invested in eighty generation and transmission projects across Latin America, Africa, Europe and North America.

To finance this massive development China funded[6]China launches $11 billion fund for Central, Eastern Europe. Reuters, November 6, 2016 the Silk Road International Bank[7]Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order.By Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang. New York Times, May 13, 2017 to mobilize local savings and is developing a new reserve currency. After the Global Financial Crisis Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the Bank of China announced, “The world needs an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and able to remain stable in the long run, removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.” He proposed Special Drawing Rights, SDRs, that derive their value from a basket of world currencies. Nobelists C. Fred Bergsten, Robert Mundell and Joseph Stieglitz, were supportive, “The creation of a global currency would restore a needed coherence to the international monetary system, give the IMF a function that would help it to promote stability and be a catalyst for international harmony.” To demonstrate the scheme’s stability China began valuing its own currency, the RMB, against a basket of dollars, euros, yen and pounds sterling and, almost immediately complaints about RMB valuation ceased. The IMF made its first SDR loan in 2014, the World Bank issued the first SDR bond in 2016, Standard Chartered Bank issued the first commercial SDR notes in 2017 and the world’s central banks began stating reserves in SDRs in 2019.

While few noticed the advent of SDRs, the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, AIIB, in 2015 was a sensation. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called it, “The moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. I can think of no event since Bretton Woods⁠ comparable to the combination of China’s effort to establish a major new institution–and the failure of the US to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain–to stay out of it.” The AIIB guarantees a trillion dollars annually in long term, low interest loans for regional infrastructure, poverty reduction, growth and climate change mitigation and allows Eurasia’s four billion savers to mobilize local savings that previously had few safe or creative outlets.

China–which contributes a full brigade of eight thousand soldiers to UN peacekeeping–is integrating the United Nations into its plans. The UN unanimously adopted Xi’s[8]‘Work Together to Build a Community with Shared Future for Mankind’ . January 2017. Later incorporated in a UN resolution by the 55th UN Commission for Social Development Xi’s Resolution to settle disputes through dialogue and resolve differences through discussion by coordinating responses to traditional and non-traditional threats and opposing all forms of terrorism. A UN Committee is considering his proposal to include two new rights, to food and shelter, in its Declaration of Universal Human Rights.

Humane authority seems closer every day.

 

HARD POWER

If the people and the nobility are not devoted then even a Sage King could not guarantee victory. The man who is skilled at obtaining the support of the people is the man who is skilled in using military force. Skillfully gaining the support of the people is essence of military undertaking-that is all.—Xunzi

At their present rates of increase, Chinese and American military budgets will reach parity in 2028 and, given that Chinese missiles in every weight class already outrange their American counterparts, the world security scene will change irrevocably.

In 1949 Mao warned[9]Zhai, Qiang (2005-10-20T22:58:59). China and the Vietnam Wars, 1950-1975 (The New Cold War History) (Kindle Locations 227-231). The University of North Carolina Press. Kindle Edition. that the country would remain ‘insecure, unconsolidated and delegitimized’ until it transformed both the old imperial world order and the old China. The following year the US bombed coastal Dandong and strafed civilians in several cities, its warplanes buzzed coastal Shantou and Winston Churchill told the world, “I believe in the ultimate partition of China–and I mean ultimate.” The insults continued for decades.

In 1992, after the US Defense Department[10]U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP. By PATRICK E. TYLER. The New York Times, March, 1992. announced its mission to prevent a rival superpower emerging in Asia the Navy held a Chinese cargo ship, the Yinhe, at gunpoint in international waters for three weeks, claiming she was carrying contraband (she wasn’t). Two years later President Clinton sent the most powerful fleet ever assembled through the Taiwan Strait. In 1998 the US dropped five precision bombs on China’s embassy in Belgrade, killing three diplomats and seriously wounding twenty and CIA director George Tenet told Congress, “It was the only target we nominated.” In 2014 a US Navy article[11]US Naval Institute Proceedings, Deterring the Dragon proposed laying offensive underwater mines along China’s coast and destroying her maritime lines of communication while sending special forces to arm minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet. In 2017 the Air Force reaffirmed its willingness to launch a nuclear attack on China and in 2018 the Navy practiced blocking China’s access to oil through the Malacca Strait though, says defense analyst Michael Thim, “The PLAN, China’s Navy, had sufficient capabilities in place in 1996 such that sending Carrier Strike Groups into the Taiwan Strait would be suicidal. The situation has only become more challenging for the Navy in recent years, not because the PLAN has acquired an aircraft carrier of its own, but because China has greatly enhanced and modernized its existing anti-access/area-denial capabilities.”

It has indeed. Strategically, China applies Mao’s ‘peoples war’ strategies in the South China Sea and Western navies are struggling to respond. When the Japanese or KMT armies arrived, the local guerillas would retreat but the invading forces couldn’t stay forever and, when they left, the PLA was still there. When British or American fleets arrive the coast guard and naval militia disappear and when the fleets go, the boats reappear. The goal is to push the Philippines and Vietnam to the negotiating table, at which point it has won the conflict. In such a situation conventional weapons become symbolic: whoever shoots first loses. Since an F-35 can’t actually shoot anything the PLAN can neutralize it with a fishing boat. The US cannot raise its incursions to a political level that could freeze strategy while China can coordinate military, legal, diplomatic, and economic aspects simultaneously[12]Power in International Politics. Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall. International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 1. “The power of the nation-state by no means consists only in its armed forces, but also in its economic and technological resources; in the dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted; in the efficiency of its social and political organization. It consists most of all in the nation itself, the people, their skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative, beliefs, myths and illusions. And it consists, further, in the way all these factors are related to one another.”

By 2015, said the Rand Corporation, China could endanger the US Navy’s surface fleet a thousand miles from its coast and the Chief of its Indo-Pacific Command told the Senate, “There is no guarantee that the United States would win a future conflict with China.” By 2019 the Navy’s Seventh Fleet of seventy ships, charged with projecting US power to the Indo-Pacific, faced three hundred PLAN warships, two hundred missile- and gun-boats defending its coast and the Navy[13]Chinese Naval Expansion Hits High Gear: China’s Navy Acquires 15 Warships in 7 Months

https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/chi...onths/
expects the PLAN to deploy 342 warships by 2021. The PLAN’s mastery of naval logistics is unparalleled: in 2018 alone it launched fifteen new warships and began simultaneous construction of four nuclear submarines. Even the US Navy, shopping for a floating dock, visited its shipyards.

The first line of China’s naval defense, the Maritime Militia, has 180,000 ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant marine[14]China’s Maritime Militia, by ndrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy freighters–some towing sonar detectors–crewed by a million sailors transmitting detailed information about every warship on the world’s oceans twenty-four hours a day. Shore bases fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou positioning, navigation and timing satellites and provide real time data to reporting specialists, xinxiyuan, trained in target information collection and identification, operating ‘vessel management platforms’ that collate, format and forward actionable information up the PLAN command chain. Shoreside, eight million coastal reservists train constantly in seamanship, emergency ship repairs, anti-air missile defense, light weapons and naval sabotage.

Commander Yang Yi, a woman and the youngest Chief Designer in naval history, created the PLAN’s front line defense fleet of three-hundred Type 022 Houbei Class fast attack missile boats. They carry eight C-802 anti-ship missiles with 500lb. warheads that travel at 650 mph, fifteen feet above the surface to targets a hundred miles away (a single C-802 disabled an Israeli warship in 2006). Four of her boats, she says, are sufficient to cover the Taiwan Strait while sheltering behind China’s coastal islands. Thirty Type 056 frigates with a range of 2,500 miles armed with YJ-83 anti-ship missiles, eight SAM launchers and six torpedo tubes back up the patrol boats.

Behind them are twenty Type 052D Arleigh Burke class destroyers. With sixty-four missile tubes, their arsenals includes unique Yu-8s anti-submarine missiles that fly for twenty miles then release their torpedoes into the sea: naval analysts claim they are virtually undetectable until they plunge into the water near the target. Six Type 055 heavy missile cruisers, the world’s most powerful surface combatants, each with one-hundred twenty-eight tubes, carry surface-to-air, anti-ship, land-attack and anti-submarine missiles while, below the surface, seventy nuclear and conventional submarines carry YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles and wake-homing torpedoes that deliver five hundred pound warheads at sixty mph from fifteen miles away.

The greatest threat, however, was born when the Navy invited a Chinese admiral on a courtesy visit to the USS Nimitz. Upon his return the officer told colleagues, “I’ve just seen the world’s biggest target. If we can’t hit an aircraft carrier we can’t hit anything.” Thrifty engineers attached a new guidance system to an existing land based missile and created a new class of weapon, the million-dollar DF-21D anti-ship ballistic carrier killer. It carries a half-ton warhead one thousand miles then drops it vertically, at 7,500 mph, onto $12 billion aircraft carriers. The USNI says it can destroy a carrier in one strike and that there is currently no defense against it. (Its sibling, the DF-26D, has a range of two thousand miles.) In 2019 Robert Haddick[15]New missile gap leaves U.S. scrambling to counter China. Reuters. April 25, 2019 warned, “China’s anti-ship missile capability exceeds that of the United States in terms of range, speed and sensor performance.” Captain James Fanell[16]New missile gap leaves U.S. scrambling to counter China. Reuters. Apr 25, 2019, a senior naval intelligence officer added, “We know that China has the most advanced ballistic missile force in the world. They have the capacity to overwhelm the defensive systems we are pursuing.”

On the ballistic front line, the CM-401, is a high supersonic ballistic missile designed for rapid precision strikes against medium-size ships, naval task forces and offshore facilities within two hundred miles but to destroy military bases in the region the PLAN relies on the larger CJ-10, a subsonic missile with a two-thousand mile range and a half ton payload that uses inertial and satellite navigation, Terrain Contour Matching and digital scene-mapping area correlation for terminal guidance, with a CEP[17]CEP, circular error probable is defined as the radius of a circle, centered on the mean, whose boundary is expected to include the landing points of 50% of a missile’s rounds. of forty feet. A longer-ranged anti-ship version, the YJ-100, can be air-launched or fired from Type 055 vertical launch tubes.

For conflicts close to the mainland or Taiwan, says The Rand Corporation, China achieved full parity in 2017 and, by 2021, will deploy more fifth generation fighters in the area than the US. J-20 fighter-bombers have an operational range of a thousand miles, carry bigger payloads faster, higher and further than America’s F-22 Raptor and release YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles that travel two hundred miles then deliver a thousand pound warhead in a corkscrew trajectory at supersonic speed. The Navy says that even against alerted warships, thirty-two percent of missiles score hits and a single strike will render any vessel inoperable.

The J-20 also carries the specialized PLA-15. Propelled by novel dual pulse rocket motors on a semi-ballistic trajectory, they home on AWACS and airborne tankers loitering behind battle lines. In 2015 USAF General Herbert Carlisle told Congress that he can field two hundred F-22 Raptors carrying six missiles while China’s more numerous fighters each carry twelve longer ranged weapons, “Look at the PLA-15, at the range of that weapon. How do we counter that?” Following his testimony the Air Force canceled its E-8C AWACS recapitalization, explaining that they would be easy prey for the PLA-15. The PLA-15’s smaller sibling, PLA-10, is no less deadly, says ISIS airpower specialist Douglas Barrie, “For the notional Western combat aircraft pilot, there is no obvious respite to be found in attempting to avoid within visual range threat of the PLA-10[18]The PLA-10, an air-to-air missile, has a more advanced guidance system and twice the range, speed and payload of the USAF AIM-9. by keeping beyond visual range. In this environment also the PLAAF will be able to mount an increasingly credible challenge and at engagement ranges against some targets that would previously have been considered safe. As one former US Air Force tanker pilot drily noted to this author, ‘“That’s aimed right at me.’”

From space, hyperspectral detection satellites peer at submerged submarines while the enormous Divine Eagle High Altitude Stealth-Hunting Drone reads aircraft electronic signals long before they approach their targets. Below them AWACS, whose solid-state detectors have twice the range of USAF’s rotating domes, track hundreds of targets and integrate information from the West Pacific Surveillance and Targeting satellite and twelve positioning satellites with ten centimeter accuracy. On the ground, passive and quantum radars emit no detectable signals while tracking objects for Russia’s S-400 antiaircraft/antimissile batteries.

China’s heavyweight ICBM, the road-mobile DF-41, is a three-stage, solid-fueled device with a twelve thousand mile range and a top speed of twenty-thousand mph that carries ten independently targetable nuclear warheads and launches on four minutes’ warning. While the DF-41 is approaching the limits of ICBM potential, the Hypersonic Glide Vehicle, the DF-ZF (which Russian Defense Minister Dmitry Rogozin compared to the first atom bombs in strategic significance) is just beginning its life cycle. Launched sixty miles above the earth from missiles traveling sixteen-thousand mph, HGVs surf the stratosphere on their supersonic shockwaves and glide to their targets. RAND says,

“Maneuverability can potentially provide HGVs the ability to use in-flight updates to attack a different target than originally planned..With the ability to fly at unpredictable trajectories, these missiles will hold extremely large areas at risk throughout much of their flights” and Congressional report concluded, “The very high speeds of these weapons combined with their maneuverability and ability to travel at lower, radar-evading altitudes would make them far less vulnerable to current missile defenses than existing missiles.” (After the PLAN’s successful HGV tests Xiamen University’s engineering department, launched and recovered its own HGV in northwest China’s desert.)

In real wars, boots on the ground determine final outcomes and the People’s Liberation Army is as unconventional as its weapons. Combat forces elect their NCOs and PLAN soldiers receive more political education than the rest of the world’s armies combined. Xiaoming Zhang[19]Zhang, Xiaoming. Deng Xiaoping’s Long War: The Military Conflict between China and Vietnam, 1979-1991 (The New Cold War History). The University of North Carolina Press. explained the thinking behind this, “Under the influence of Confucian philosophy the concept of the just or righteous war was prevalent throughout Chinese society so, unlike Western militaries which depend on professional ethics and training to ensure that soldiers’ perform their duties in war, the PLA opted for political indoctrination and attempted to make troops understand why a war must be fought and how it would matter to them.” Historian William Hinton says, “From its inception the Army has been led by the Party and has never played a purely military role. On the contrary, Army cadres have always played a leading political role. In 1927 Mao wrote, ‘The Red Army fights not merely for the sake of fighting but in order to conduct xuānchuán among the people, organize, arm and help them establish revolutionary political power. Without these objectives, fighting loses its meaning and the Red Army loses its reason for existence.’”

No matter how well armed or valorous an army is, to win wars it needs the support of the citizens who pay for it–and here China has an advantage. China’s leaders often invoke the feelings of the Chinese people in international disputes and surveys[20]How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public? Another Look at “Rising Nationalism” and Chinese Foreign Policy Jessica Chen Weiss To cite this article: Jessica Chen Weiss (2019): How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public? Another Look at “Rising Nationalism” and Chinese Foreign Policy, Journal of Contemporary China, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2019.1580427 reveal that their attitudes are more hawkish than dovish and younger Chinese much more inclined to call on the government to invest in and have recourse to military strength. In 2015, Gallup posed the question, “If there were a war involving [your country], would you be willing to fight for [your country]?”

Notes

[1] Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Empirical Assessment. Michael C. Webb and Stephen D. Krasner. Review of International Studies, Vol. 15, No. 2, Special Issue on the Balance of Power (Apr., 1989), pp. 183-198. Cambridge University Press

[2] Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power. By Yan Xuetong

[3] “Strengthen Party Unity and Carry Forward Party Traditions” (1956) China’s economy overtook America’s fifty-eight years later.

[4] Build a Harmonious World of Lasting Peace and Common Prosperity. Speech by Hu Jintao at the UN Summit, New York, September 15, 2005

[5] Wang Yi, ‘Exploring the Path of Major-Country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics’, Foreign Affairs Journal, No. 10 (2013), p. 14.

[6] China launches $11 billion fund for Central, Eastern Europe. Reuters, November 6, 2016

[7] Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order.By Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang. New York Times, May 13, 2017

[8] ‘Work Together to Build a Community with Shared Future for Mankind’ . January 2017. Later incorporated in a UN resolution by the 55th UN Commission for Social Development

[9] Zhai, Qiang (2005-10-20T22:58:59). China and the Vietnam Wars, 1950-1975 (The New Cold War History) (Kindle Locations 227-231). The University of North Carolina Press. Kindle Edition.

[10] U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP. By PATRICK E. TYLER. The New York Times, March, 1992.

[11] US Naval Institute Proceedings, Deterring the Dragon

[12] Power in International Politics. Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall. International Organization, Vol. 59, No. 1

[13] Chinese Naval Expansion Hits High Gear: China’s Navy Acquires 15 Warships in 7 Months

https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/chinese-naval-expansion-hits-high-gear-chinas-navy-acquires-15-warships-in-7-months/

[14] China’s Maritime Militia, by ndrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy

[15] New missile gap leaves U.S. scrambling to counter China. Reuters. April 25, 2019

[16] New missile gap leaves U.S. scrambling to counter China. Reuters. Apr 25, 2019

[17] CEP, circular error probable is defined as the radius of a circle, centered on the mean, whose boundary is expected to include the landing points of 50% of a missile’s rounds.

[18] The PLA-10, an air-to-air missile, has a more advanced guidance system and twice the range, speed and payload of the USAF AIM-9.

[19] Zhang, Xiaoming. Deng Xiaoping’s Long War: The Military Conflict between China and Vietnam, 1979-1991 (The New Cold War History). The University of North Carolina Press.

[20] How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public? Another Look at “Rising Nationalism” and Chinese Foreign Policy Jessica Chen Weiss To cite this article: Jessica Chen Weiss (2019): How Hawkish Is the Chinese Public? Another Look at “Rising Nationalism” and Chinese Foreign Policy, Journal of Contemporary China, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2019.1580427

 
The China/America Series
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  1. I feel like I’ve just read a Chinese Communist Party brochure.

    The Chinese government can say whatever it wants, the people carry on with their lives, and they have only one goal in mind: to make as much money as quickly as possible, by hook or by crook, and get the hell out of China before they get thrown in jail. Money and an American green card are the only two things that matter in China, everything else is bullshit. That is, until they get to America. Then it’s “China No.1 !”

  2. AWM says:

    China has a big insurmountable problem, it’s China.

  3. Incoh says:

    Tell us more about how benevolent and humane the Tibetan occupation is Godless. I’m sure you have no end of “internal reports” exposing the observations and stories of natives and third-parties as unfounded, demonizing propaganda against the poor, altruistic Han and their democra-I mean civilization-building.
    Tell us about how good and noble the factory plantations in Africa are, how the wanton invasive and indiscriminate data-harvesting is okay when they do it, and how state-owned Chinese businesses exploiting WTO loopholes to undercut First World markets and buying up tens of millions of dollars worth of property in foreign countries to manipulate/crash their real estate markets are all for the betterment of the world. You would and have castigated Western countries from the rooftops for doing similar historically and in the present, but who cares about double standards?
    Enlighten us as to how exactly their laundry list of Utopian infrastructure plans is any different from the Pie-in-the-Sky dozens of others states have advertised in either delusion or huckstering, and how the modern Chinese could never underdeliver.
    And while you’re at it, I’m sure you have a deluge of word-vomit to excuse the violent police-state farce that is the ongoing attempted roll-out of the Hong Kong extradition bill. I look forward to that.
    You make Fred Reed look like Jared Taylor, such is the depths of your pedestalization of the bugmen. I can’t decide if you’re revolting or hysterical.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @peterAUS
    , @denk
  4. anon[487] • Disclaimer says:

    Another Godfree article, another comment section with enough salt to rival the Dead Sea.

    • Replies: @Rabbitnexus
  5. 22pp22 says:

    The Unz review has got to be able to find someone better than this. Even Tiny Duck would be an improvement.

  6. PeterMX says:

    The USA had hegemony over half the world until 1990. The USSR had hegemony over the other half. At least thru 1970 it was not clear which side would win the Cold War and the US was especially shaken when it lost the Vietnam War.

  7. anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    You just see the immigrants who come to the United States, their numbers are small (a few million) compared to the 1.4 billion that live in China. Among the ones that stay home in China are a large number of very nationalistic Chinese that would fight to the death if their country was at war. How many Americans would be willing to stand up and die for the US, especially when a large part of the US military are foreigners who are in it for the money and benefits?

    When the US had superior weapons, it really didn’t shine in wars like Korea or Vietnam, they were beaten to a standstill by nationalist forces with inferior weapons but a willingness to fight to the death. When the US uses it’s air force it does better when it defeated small countries like Serbia and Iraq, but how would the US do in a war with China with 100 times Serbia’s population and equal if not better weapons than the United States and a far larger military? My bet would be on China.

  8. Any modern Chinese(mainlander), is made of 4 parts, more or less:
    1. pride and glory of history and culture from the ancient thousands years
    2. humiliation and failure of the recent hundreds years
    3. revolutionary and equal spirit from Chairman Mao
    4. materialism and ‘money above all’ religion from Deng Xiaoping
    You can see the time line clearly. These are the very basic four element influence to understand any Chinese mainlander.
    So what if such people is in dominance position of the world?
    Still you can find the clues from the four element mentioned above:
    1. ancient China sincerely believe that goodness for all human being under the virtuous leader is possible:
    ‘普天之下 莫非王土 率土之滨 莫非王臣All the land under heaven belongs to the king;All the people are the subjects of the emperor, without exception’ . The idea is about power, yet it’s also about equal and great unity. ‘天下大同’. No land and no people is different. Finally altogether we become ‘under the heaven’, that what we are. In a big picture, it’s a peaceful and prosperous idea.
    2. colonialism and imperialism is wrong! feudalism, backwardness and close-minded is also wrong!
    3. we should fight! fight! and fight! fight for a new world.
    4. we should get rich, whatever it means, whatever it takes, let’s get rich.
    You can also find that element 1 is quite basic, element 2,3,4 is kind of reactional.
    Even if you are not a Chinese, you can at least agree with one the four elements that any Chinese are made of. Thus we have the basics to start a communication.
    If you agree with all the four elements, you actually become a Chinese.
    If you disagree all of them, it’s all right, maybe one day you child/grand child will agree, just don’t stand in our way please.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @sally
    , @David
    , @gT
  9. PeterMX says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    In my travels I often meet foreigners that like and respect the USA a lot, especially in eastern Europe. Some people almost sound like they are in awe of the US. I suspect the US media, which is piped into countries throughout much of the word (certainly in Europe), has a lot to do with that. I was in Minsk, Belarus the last 3 weeks. It’s a gorgeous city and puts US and many west European cities to shame. Only if you ignore the run down, filth and huge homeless problem in LA and San Francisco could those cities most beautiful areas compete with Minsk. But try and convince a local of that. I tried with one and I couldn’t convince him. But California’s cities have the beautiful ocean view and weather, which Belarus does not have.

  10. Rise of China as a global hegemon can and it will be truly unique situation in entire human history .

    Chinese foreign policy of non-interventionism,of mutual respect,trade and infrastructure developments are things that no previous world power had .

    Not to mention HUGE scientific advancements in China – from largest planned particle collider,largest space telescope,fastest supercomputer etc etc

    Conservatives in west should embrace rise of China .

    • Agree: Iris
  11. there are so many people wondering about why does many Chinese leave China, like forever (China must be very bad?)
    I give you some reasons here:
    1. there is not many at all! you just don’t know what does 1.4 billion population means. you have no idea!
    2. west propaganda is really dominant and powerful that some Chinese losers eat it all, they think west world is heaven and there is no scenery around in China, so they leave.
    3. for those criminals and evils, they know what they have done to it’s people, and they will not be protected by CCP, so they need to get prepared and escape before they are caught.
    4. for some smartass, they know China is not the most easy land for any competition and money making, so it’s better they find the opportunities somewhere else.
    5. For sure, there are fields and specific academy and careers, China has not offer people good enough land and chances yet. So they leave.
    6. West empire and colonizer still stand at the top of the human pyramid so they suck the resource and benefit of all human being and drink the blood of the non-empire citizens. It’s inevitable that any citizen of the empire get benefit from such world system.
    What happens if such system fails? That what the citizens of the empire should think about. Not about how many Chinese leave China and why is that.

  12. Deschutes says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    If that’s all you got out of reading this excellent article, then you’ve pretty much confirmed that you’re merely another ‘dumb American’ who thinks the universe revolves around the USA. I’ll bet any money you’ve never traveled abroad out of USA, and you most likely are aged 55 living in your mom’s basement. Or squatting in a trailer park.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  13. Lo says:

    Mr. Roberts forgets that China is surrounded by enemies on the North, East, and South. Moreover, Asians are probably some of the most ethnocentric people around the world. Naturally, they all hate each other. If China were to become too strong, it would find itself in even more trouble. Already, Japan is militarizing, Vietnam will get more investment and start feeding a larger army and it’s an ally of the US. Same is true for S. Korea, the only reason why SK is hesitant is because of NK, and that is the reason for negotiations with NK. So is Taiwan.

    China cannot lead the world. The Chinese are first and foremost interested in money/wealth. Moreover, if there is such thing as American exceptionalism, we must remember that Chinese probably invented Chinese exceptionalism thousands of years ago. We are talking about a people who believed their country was the center of the world, which is why it is named “middle kingdom.” This attitude comes forward when they are dealing with weaker nations if they “lead” the world they’d start treating us the same way as well. There is a reason why none of their neighbors, including Russians, don’t like them. Africans are already missing whites after meeting the Chinese (no joke!).

    I am not against the Chinese and think they have great characteristics as individuals too. However, they are extremely materialistic people who have no respect for anything but power. A nation should first have higher ideals that excite other nations in order to rule. The reason America’s lead is fading is not because of China but rather because of the damage caused by the Zionists and their wars along with an elite who only cares about wealth (like Chinese!). However, still, no one is thrilled by a Chinese lead. You can only lead those who accept you as a leader, who accepts Chinese leadership?

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @denk
  14. Deschutes says:

    Great article, very well researched and footnoted. It makes sense the younger Chinese and Russians are more inclined to fight for their country since the USA is continually attacking, sanctioning, harassing and demonizing them. In hope that China and Russia continue to cooperate economically and militarily. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is brilliant. Both Russia and China should dump the US dollar and do trade only in Chinese yuan, in so doing making USA’s constant sanction threats meaningless. The worst thing for the Earth is a unipolar world with asshole USA constantly attacking, invading and destroying country after country (what we have now). Much better is a multipolar world where countries can cooperate on an equal footing. The USA is the biggest obstacle to world peace and global trade because it has so many total, complete assholes in the government, corporate america, and the defense corporations such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon: the people who work at these defense corporations are morally and ethically bankrupt total fucking assholes.

  15. The US defense budget gives no indication about the US military’s capabilities. It’s a giant scam. When defense contractors can charge $50 for a coffee cup, then it’s obvious that quantity does not correspond to quality.
    Russia spends only a fraction of the US and yet they can build a functioning and much cheaper 5th generation fighter jet, electronic warfare systems that can switch off an a whole US Navy ship like a TV, S-400 anti-aircraft systems that the US fears, and I hear the latest are super maneuverable ICBMs and hypersonic missiles.

    Meanwhile, what is the US military doing?
    Fielding the Fail-35, trying to retire the decent weapons they do have, making sure enough trannies graduate West Point, faking women through commando courses… at least when they are not occupied failing in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    And now China is catching up to them.

    America will soon have its Suez moment, and it will be a great day when that happens. Can’t wait to see these losers hit reality like a trainwreck.

    • Replies: @Anon
  16. The obvious solution is to export our Diversity to China in return for its endless exports to America. Since, As Is Well Known, Diversity is Our Greatest Strength, China will surely be grateful for the boost. It’s working out so well over here. How could they refuse? It would be positively wretched for them to refuse.

  17. Chinese nation has developed the humanistic-oriented concept of loving all creatures as if they were of our species

    Tell that to dogs and cats.

    • LOL: eah
    • Replies: @eah
    , @TT
    , @Kepha
  18. @Tired of Not Winning

    I’m sure after having lived with the indoctrination of the dying Empire this must seem so to you. How quaint then that these days it is the USA which relies on propaganda to shore up it’s crumbling image and dwindling power and influence.

    To demonstrate that this article does indeed reflect reality requires no more than going to Youtube and seeing what various Western epatriates living in China have to say about it. Serpentza is an erudite and relatable subject try his view and don’t be such a dolt as to react to something so complex and far away from your experience when you self evidently don;t know more than one side of a biased argument.

  19. Parfois1 says:

    Wow! Game over for the Hegemon. Don’t know about Confucian philosophy, but it’s enough to apply Hegelian metaphysics to see what’s going own. In its attempt at full-spectrum dominance, the US elites created the conditions for its own demise. Even simple physics would be enough to explain that power projection would generate a reaction – hence the Russian and Chinese reaching for weaponry to secure their survival, maybe more than that if push comes to shove. They gloated over the end of the USSR, got inebriated with their “victory” and missed the opportunity of, for a change, being the shining light on the hill.

  20. The US has a network of alliances – really, vassal states – that it can utilise. Witness how it got ARM – a Japanese company with most of its R&D in the UK – to stop supplying Huawei with critical IP instruction sets needed in order to build its own computer chips and SoCs. That’s the power of the US.

    As China grows larger, it also grows more arrogant, meaning that the scope for alienation of its neighbours increases as well. The US as a country vs China as a country is the wrong comparison. You have to look at the two combined with their alliances. China only really has one powerful friend: Russia, and it pales in comparison to Japan/Australia/Canada/EU.

    The hope is that Europe unshackles itself from being a mere vassal of the US. That would truly be transformational, but I don’t see it happening. Its leaders are too enmeshed. A person like de Gaulle emerging in Europe today is unthinkable. Instead we get puppets like Macron or Merkel.

    • Replies: @denk
  21. Anonymous[312] • Disclaimer says:

    Taking Chinese government statistics and statistical projections at face value? Even Chinese Vice-Premier Li Keqiang publicly stated that they are unreliable and are for “reference only”. What exactly is being referenced is not sure, but in short nothing to see here, just fantasy numbers and “analysis” from a low brow propagandist.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  22. I’ve got nothing against the chinks. But all the nonsense about them being so smart is a sackofshit. They’re diligent. But not smart in the American/Nordic European sense of the word. They seem never to have the original idea. They can improve on an already establish concept but never come up the original idea themselves – interesting.

  23. @joeshittheragman

    Not to mention they can’t seem to walk in a straight line at a consistent pace. Additionally, they have the worst situational awareness of any race I have ever come across. I stun them all the time, even though I am just trying to walk around these insect-like people. No sinister intentions, they just take absolutely zero notice of their vicinity.
    No wonder there are so many really nasty Chinese industrial accidents on liveleak. I think they are a remarkably dumb race of people. They have that one-dimensional intelligence of being able to perfect and regurgitate proceedures and information well. But in all other respects they are extremely lacking.
    Take note of their military history–it is a tragic comedy of being totally invaded and wrecked by Manchus and Turkics, even when the chinks fantastically outnumber the invaders. China is a great economic counterbalance to the JewSA, and I hope they wreck the jew empire. But I do not worry about their military.

    • Replies: @TT
  24. Chinese elite emigration isn’t at all bad in per capita terms.

    * https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-migration-of-millionaires/
    * http://www.unz.com/akarlin/millionaires-flee/

    Around 1-2% of their millionaire population leaves per year – same (long-term) as in France. Except that we can expect that flow to dry up as Chinese become richer (while France is not going to become less Islamized), nor is it as bad since China continues generating many more millionaires, while their numbers in Europe are stable.

    A good majority of Chinese PhD students have been returning to China from the US after completing their studies for the past decade now.

    Moreover, the Western campaign against Huawei and other Sinophobic policies are having an excellent and salutary effect on Chinese patriotism.

    • Replies: @TT
  25. Interesting informative article giving food for thought and not easy to dismiss out of hand. Looking at today’s world and Americas erratic senseless paranoiac frustrated behaviour the autor is making some valid points.

  26. China will never be global hegemon, even after US ceases to be.

    1. they’re the same- the same names, all other people can’t tell one from another

    2. language barrier, insurmountable

    3. they don’t want to, they’re satisfied with themselves

    4. if they would try, really, then US, Russia, Europe, Indonesia, India..would team against it & that would be the end

    5. they’re not attractive, nor interesting to the “world” enough

    ….

  27. jim jones says:

    Brutal suppression of dissent in Hong Kong:

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  28. @Anonymous

    I rarely use Chinese government statistics, since Western and multi-national stats are more accessible to readers.

    Li was talking about his days in the trenches, many years ago, and pointing out that Beijing has many, many ways of cross-checking provincial stats.

    No official Chinese stat has ever been disproven. A visit to China will readily confirm their figures.

    • Replies: @Lot
  29. @joeshittheragman

    Thank you for explaining why, according to the Japan Science and Technology Agency, China now ranks as the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields.

    And why the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2) examined not just the number of AI research papers coming from China but the quality of those papers—as judged by the number of citations they receive in other work. The study suggests that China will overtake the US in the most-cited 50% of research papers this year, the top 10% of research papers in 2020, and the top 1% by 2025. China is already ahead in the number of AI patents filed, AI venture capital invested, and research papers cited worldwide. The number of Chinese students studying AI and graduating from universities worldwide exceed the total number of other countries’ AI students combined
    China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest producer of scientific research papers, making up almost a fifth of the total global output, according to a major new report. https://www.stm-assoc.org/document-library/

    You have also explained why the World Intellectual Property Organization, WIPO, ranked 167 universities and public research universities for the top 500 patent applications. 110 of the patents were from China, 20 from the United States and 19 from South Korea. China dominates a global ranking of the most-cited research papers published in the 30 hottest technology fields.

  30. @jim jones

    Where’s the brutality? How does it compare to Britain’s when HK was a British colony?

    Lau Man-shing was an inspector in the Water Supplies Department and a member of the executive committee of the Government Waterworks Chinese Employees Union. He joined a 1967 strike organised by the Anti-British Struggle Committee, founded by the leftist camp, which caused him to lose his lucrative job and be detained for 13 months at Victoria Road Detention Centre. Some 52 leaders of leftist organisations, including Lau, were detained at the centre during the riots, many for more than a year without trial. Peter Tsang Yu-hung still lamented his suffering during the riots, although he was not involved in any violent acts. He was a Form Five pupil at the pro-Beijing Heung To Middle School in Kowloon Tong when he and 51 schoolmates were arrested on their way home from school on November 1, 1967.
    They were stopped by a team of police officers near Somerset Road and were arrested for attending an unlawful and “intimidating” assembly in a public place under the emergency law in force at the time. Three of them had rejected police demands to search their schoolbags.
    “We were arrested just because we were students from a left-wing school … A month later, we were taken to the court without lawyers representing us,” Tsang said. He was sentenced to a year in jail for attending an unlawful assembly. Another 20 schoolmates and the teacher were given jail terms from 12 to 20 months. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1971502/when-cultural-revolution-spilled-over-riots-hong-kong

  31. The showdown of the world with US had just begin.
    Iran just torched two oil tankers with Saudi oil in the Gulf.
    I do think this puts US on the road to Perdition.

  32. Anon[681] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lo

    However, they are extremely materialistic people who have no respect for anything but power.

    You are confusing the Chinese with the Jews. Chinese only care about money, they don’t care about power. Jews want both. That is the biggest difference between them. After all, we’re talking about a group of people who discovered Africa and only wanted to trade, then go home.

    Even though they are known as the “Jews of Southeast Asia” and own the majority of the wealth, the Chinese in SEA have no political power, they’ve never sought any, that’s why they’ve been persecuted for the past 70 years, since the European colonials left.

    Which is why I agree with you that these people will never be the next superpower. Economic superpower, yes, but not military superpower. The average Chinese just wants to get rich, emigrate to the west, eat a lot of pork, and send their kids to Harvard. They don’t care about politics whatsoever.

  33. Anon[681] • Disclaimer says:
    @Honor is Loyalty

    When defense contractors can charge $50 for a coffee cup, then it’s obvious that quantity does not correspond to quality.

    In China they charge US$500. That’s why so many of them became rich enough to emigrate, paying that US$500,000 for an EB5, US$200,000 for their kids’ education in America, when the median Chinese income is <US$4,000 a year.

    • Replies: @TT
  34. Biff says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    to make as much money as quickly as possible, by hook or by crook, and get the hell out of China before they get thrown in jail. Money and an American green card are the only two things that matter in China,

    You’re bad at math. Statistically, a person is much more likely to be jailed in the United Stated than in any other country in the world – including China.

    • Replies: @Wally
  35. The Gallup poll, ‘If there were a war involving your country’, shows that, of the countries named, China has the most effective system of patriotic brainwashing. It may also be the case that the Chinese are particularly susceptible to brainwashing; some years ago, a paper published by the Royal Society suggested a genetic basis for ‘British individualism and Chinese conformity’.

  36. FB says: • Website

    Well Mr Roberts sounds a lot like MUNCHHAUSEN KARLIN by simply spraying a fire hose of ‘statistics’ about science ‘rankings’ and other such bullshit…while conveying zero substance by exploring ONE THEME THOROUGHLY…

    For instance satellites can’t see submerged submarines…that’s just basic physics…radio waves don’t propagate through sea water…

    I’ll have more clarifying about some of these technical realities later…

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Iris
    , @Rich
    , @Godfree Roberts
  37. Anon[681] • Disclaimer says:

    The analysis of China’s military might is interesting but completely useless. China doesn’t have to go to war with anybody, they’ve conquered all countries without firing a single bullet since time immemorial — through immivasion. These days they are conquering entire continents. There is not a single corner of the earth you could go to without seeing a Chinese face. The west coast and northeast of US are already Chinese colonies, as are all major Canadian, Australian and NZ cities. They are even conquering Spain. Everytime I watch a YouTube clip on Spain, I see Chinese everywhere, and they don’t look like tourists either.

  38. I just pray every day that the Chinese and Russians will not sit back and allow the US aggressor to start firing even one cruise missile or drone into Iranian air space without consequence. They surely must realize by now that the Hegemon must be stopped at all costs. Ultra Zionists like Bolton and Pompeo must know that the USA is getting weaker by the day, so, for criminal Israeli boot lickers of their ilk, it may be now or never for them to finish off the last (and strongest) of the seven countries that General Clark warned us about.

  39. Iris says:
    @Incoh

    Tell us about how good and noble the factory plantations in Africa are

    The overwhelming majority of Africans disagree with your “facts”: the yearly China-Africa economic forum, in September 2018, saw the attendance of all 53 African countries (with the exception of Swaziland, a Bantustan without bananas) and of the African Union Organisation.

  40. @anon

    Seriously that was your opus magnus for the day? You lousy PLONKER!

    I HOPE you’re not getting anybody’s tax dollars for that effort you pathetic low budget troll!!

    Talk about just clocking in! Me feels outrage speaking as a member of the targeted audience. For the sake of reason at least give us some meat to muse upon… You fairy floss dispensing fizz bucket!!!

  41. @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Bullshit. The near proof Iran did not do this is in the fact you declare it so and so soon. You waste of oxygen. If Iran wanted to mess anybody up they’d know about it, why would they want to pop a few puny holes in tankers when they have complete control over the Hormuz Straight and the Persian Gulf in its entirety? What would be the benefit you assclown? NOTHING OBVIOUSLY! Iran has ultimately got vaste power over the shipping of oil and gas in the region and they can have a greater chilling effect on world outlook just be detailing how they’ll stop oil traffic through their Hormuz Straight. You small time bozo. You’re a cut rate low value plonker clown in a cheap troll’s clothing.

    Who would benefit from this and who the hell would be messing around banging silly little holes in oil tankers in that region right now and who has anything to benefit? ROTHSCHILDLANDIA. You know who I mean since they pay your wages you pathetic whore for zion.

    • Replies: @Ilyana_Rozumova
    , @Pontius
  42. Republic says:

    Very sad to see the Chinese utilizing their wealth to greatly improve their infrastructure and that of their neighbors,while the US waste trillions on useless,unwinnable wars in the Middle East and Central Asia.

  43. Mao’s quote, “If we fail we will be wiped from the face of the earth”, encapsulates it all. That is also the mind-set of the hegemon. Nations have three phases of power – gain, retain, regain. Nations rise, they gain power; then they strive to retain it; when it is being lost they attempt to regain it. The pattern of history is clear. Power (manifested as interest) has been present in every conflict of the past – no exception. It is the underlying motivation for war. Other cultural factors might change, but not power. Interest cuts across all apparently unifying principles: family, kin, nation, religion, ideology, politics – everything. We unite with the enemies of our principles, because that is what serves our interest. It is power, not any of the above concepts, that is the cause of war. It is the cause of world war; the third we are facing now. But many describe the present crisis as a second Cold War: but the Cold War was the peace, we’re now in an age of war, a pre-world war environment. There have been periods of peace (or relative peace) throughout history. The Thirty Years Peace between the two Peloponnesian Wars, Pax Romana, Europe in the 19th century after the Congress of Vienna, to name a few. The Congress System finally collapsed in 1914 with the start of World War One. That conflict was followed by the League of Nations. It did not stop World War Two. That was followed by the United Nations and other post-war institutions. But all the indications are they will not prevent a third world war.

    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  44. Iris says:
    @FB

    For instance satellites can’t see submerged submarines

    Hi FB;

    This is a real military project, called “Guanlan” and involving 20-odd Chinese engineering departments. It is based on the integrated operation of a micro-wave radar (defining the area of research at the sea surface) and satellite-mounted LIDAR (Laser Imaging Detection And Ranging) apparently likely to detect submarines up to 500 metres depth.

    The French military know about this research and are gutted to be so lagging behind.

    http://www.opex360.com/2018/11/01/la-chine-developpe-un-satellite-pour-detecter-les-sous-marins-en-plongee/

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @FB
  45. Rich says:

    If the author is correct, and the Chicoms will reach military parity with the U.S. by 2028, then the US has no choice but to take the Reds out now. Already the tariffs and the trade war appear to be hurting Red China and the protests in Hong Kong indicate the Reds may be much weaker than they pretend. If unemployment rises, and more civil unrest begins, there could be significant changes on the mainland that forestall Communist expansion.
    Otherwise, I’d expect a hot war, that if fought within the next two or three years, would probably result in an American victory. The Chicoms may be patting themselves on the back right now because of their success, but you can bet that along with the Americans, the Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos and others in the regi9on aren’t going to sit back and let them become the dominant world power.

    • LOL: FB
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    , @denk
  46. Anon[727] • Disclaimer says:

    The level of salt in these Chinese economic and military articles is truly amazing – proof that blind emotionalism trumps rational thought every time. No matter how many times their prognostications have proved wrong, every time an article like this is published on the American internet, commenters like these turn up. Nearly every comment here is mere excuse making – also proof than only a small fraction of any society has a place in leadership roles, irrespective of relative intelligence when compared to the general population.

    “Mr. Roberts forgets that China is surrounded by enemies on the North, East, and South.”

    Almost all comparatively weak countries, nearly all of which now rely heavily on the United States for protection. Don’t expect little Vietnam to stand up to big China. They will negotiate a peace with China that removes US military assets at some point in the future, least they become targets themselves.

    “Moreover, Asians are probably some of the most ethnocentric people around the world. Naturally, they all hate each other.”

    Couldn’t you have said the same about Europeans at one time? How many world wars did they fight among themselves again? Didn’t stop the US hegemon from conquering them, though.

    “If China were to become too strong, it would find itself in even more trouble. Already, Japan is militarizing, Vietnam will get more investment and start feeding a larger army and it’s an ally of the US. Same is true for S. Korea, the only reason why SK is hesitant is because of NK, and that is the reason for negotiations with NK. So is Taiwan.”

    That’s not correct. China’s economy is already larger than Japan’s plus all of those other countries’ GDP combined. Japan has stratospheric debt and can’t afford to spend a significant fraction of her GDP on defense. South Korea has an economy smaller than California’s. Vietnam is still a backwater with an economy little more than half the GDP of Alabama.

    “China cannot lead the world. The Chinese are first and foremost interested in money/wealth.”

    That’s a bit paradoxical, if you ask me. Power flows from economic strength. China will soon have great economic strength, so they will concomitantly have great power. Besides, have you ever heard of the phrase, “The business of America is business”? Your comment is merely an exercise in grasping at straws. You will find anything, no matter how ill-informed or out of context, to support your favored thesis.

    “Moreover, if there is such thing as American exceptionalism, we must remember that Chinese probably invented Chinese exceptionalism thousands of years ago. We are talking about a people who believed their country was the center of the world”

    If the Chinese are motivated by a similar doctrine, wouldn’t that make them more likely rather than less likely to try and take over the world?

    “There is a reason why none of their neighbors, including Russians, don’t like them.”

    They’re getting along just fine with the Russians, South Americans, Europeans, Africans and a host of other groups. Also, Pro-Chinese sentiment is higher among all Asian groups in the United States than you might think, so pan-racial solidarity in Asia may help to soften their image once they attain some kind of cultural soft power.

    “Africans are already missing whites after meeting the Chinese (no joke!).”

    Not enough to keep them from doing business with the Chinese.

    “However, they are extremely materialistic people who have no respect for anything but power.”

    How exactly has that stopped the Jews from becoming influential? Such a mindset would seem to be a plus in a capitalistic, zero-sum, materialistic world.

    “A nation should first have higher ideals that excite other nations in order to rule.”

    Like gay marriage, extreme market-capitalism, and mass immigration, right? Can’t imagine any of that has much appeal in Latin America or Africa.

    “The reason America’s lead is fading is not because of China but rather because of the damage caused by the Zionists and their wars along with an elite who only cares about wealth (like Chinese!).”

    Well, I agree with that part – somewhat. However, a lot of America’s damage is self-inflicted due to the adoption and worship of an inferior model of government that gives too much power to the ignorant masses and greedy corporations, not just Jews. America’s decline was baked in the cake since the conclusion of her Civil War. Jews or not, America was destined to reach this point as a natural consequence of her universalist ideology, racial admixture, and democratic/republican system of government.

    “You can only lead those who accept you as a leader, who accepts Chinese leadership?”

    All the countries rushing to do business with China seem to be accepting that role quite nicely.

    “China will never be global hegemon, even after US ceases to be.1. They’re the same- the same names, all other people can’t tell one from another.”

    One Lee is worth 1000 Trayvons.

    “language barrier, insurmountable”

    Translation technologies are already quite good. Japan’s native language is probably even harder than Chinese to learn and yet their companies do quite well globally. In fact, Japanese video game companies do quite well for themselves in the US even with the language barrier; they have a huge fanbase in the US desperate for quality, game play innovation, imaginative stories, and an escape from diversity checklists. I see no reason why China couldn’t repeat that success as their American competition is increasingly obsessed with representation and quick profits over imagination and innovation.

    “they don’t want to, they’re satisfied with themselves”

    Did you even bother reading the article?

    “if they would try, really, then US, Russia, Europe, Indonesia, India..would team against it & that would be the end”

    Yeah, accept for that poll showing Europeans probably wouldn’t. India is also getting closer to Russia these days, not the pozzed US. So much for the unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, diversity requirements and non-white racial pandering have turned US military academies like West Point into a joke. The only way the US could successfully oppose China would be to double or triple its white population while decreasing its black population and putting valuable white males into top leadership roles + reduce the appeal of toxic feminism among the youth. The US missed that opportunity many decades – perhaps a century – ago at this point. Her decline and eclipse in the world is now inevitable. But at least they’ll get to keep “muh values” though … but probably not.

    “they’re not attractive, nor interesting to the “world” enough”

    Jews are physically unattractive, and so are the British, for the most part. Both powers did quite well for themselves. Besides, whites find many Asian girls quite attractive, both physically and psychologically; that’s the most common interracial paring in the United States. Many Europeans would rather have the smart, traditional Chinese girl over the disrespectful feminist Western girl.

    “The study suggests that China will overtake the US in the most-cited 50% of research papers this year, the top 10% of research papers in 2020, and the top 1% by 2025.”

    1. Well, that shut up the naysayers in the comments, didn’t it?

    2. All predicted by me decades ago, yet the incompetent US government did nothing about it – even facilitated their own demise. Fools. Increasingly, the US resembles the early fifth century Roman empire – exhausted, uninspired, corrupt, and beaten. It’s all downhill from here for the United States. Based on the poll cited by the author, I would guess by 2030 probably over half the population would refuse to fight for it in a major war. Ouch. You can’t have patriotic motivation if you don’t have a country (racially diverse empires don’t inspire the masses) and you can’t motivate people with ideology alone as Stalin found out when the Germans invaded.

    You see America’s defeat in a lot of her pop culture. Very little new art or concepts are produced in movies or in television these days – mostly rehashes of stuff from their former glory days when white males were going crazy coming up with new stuff. A lot of the current malaise comes from the diversity spoils racket, Trump derangement syndrome, and race swap craze; it’s impossible for creative whites to make something now that isn’t immediately denounced by some racist tribal for not including more their kind or by the controlled media for not being sufficiently woke. Therefore, the creative element (white males), demoralized, has moved elsewhere or stopped creating all together. This phenomenon is also seen in the music industry and, increasingly, in American video game developers.

    This turn of events, in my opinion, presents China with a prime opportunity to increase her cultural softpower in the future. Even if the stereotype of Chinese being conformists is true, the decline of the US culturally due to tribal infighting and corporate greed should even the playing field enough in the future for China to make serious advancements globally. From that, people around the world will start to like China more.

  47. anon[727] • Disclaimer says:

    “Very sad to see the Chinese utilizing their wealth to greatly improve their infrastructure and that of their neighbors,while the US waste trillions on useless,unwinnable wars in the Middle East and Central Asia.”

    China has a government that dictates to corporations. America has a government dictated to by corporations; thus, the diversity, HR, political correctness, metoo, and mass immigration crazes in the latter. In the US, when greedy capitalists want to increase the value of their portfolios or when corporations want to sell more product to the government, they start a costly war (it’s not like they will pay the bill or anything). In China, wars aren’t started because they are bad for the people, regardless of whether or not they are good for the pozzed corporations and their army of greedy, immoral lobbyists.

  48. Agent76 says:

    May 31, 2019 China Could Devestate U.S. Military With Rare Earth Materials Ban?

    China produces 90 percent of the world’s rare earth elements. About 1000 pounds of such materials are used to build a single F-35 jet.

    May 29, 2019 China’s Biggest Weapon In The Trade War

    “If anyone wants to use the products made from rare earths exported by China to contain and suppress the development of China, I think the people of the old revolutionary base area in the south of Jiangxi Province and the people of China will not be happy,” said the official. According to the Global Times, he made the remarks when asked by reporters if China will use rare earths as a countermeasure against U.S. trade moves to contain China.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Chinas-Biggest-Weapon-In-The-Trade-War.html

  49. sally says:
    @Chinese live in China

    it is more important to win over people than territory.
    Hu principles <build a harmonious world of lasting peace and common prosperity(ref. 4)
    Hu's principle ignores the most important players in achieving lasting peace and
    common prosperity that is who it is that will "establish and maintain the peace"
    If the human container called China or a group of such human containers were to come to gether in armed rebellion against deniers of peace and the inequity of the distribution of propserity, then it would be wrong, wrong, wrong and the world would become a prison for humanity requiring great human sacrafice to bring about Hu's top down harmony, peace and prosperity.

    I agree with AWM @2 above the problem with China is China.

    It is the assumption, that a power derived from an organization and its leadership, made by philosophy and its philosophers that the state or, the king or, the god or, whatever or whomever should dictate rule, sort, demand, control.. it is that assumption of centralization of power surrounded by propaganda that supports the centralization that has prevented the world finding peace.

    Instead to achieve lasting peace it is necessary that all of humanity join with the same
    voice and acquire and hold the same mental state.. it is only from such a base, where common human understanding fuels the thrusts energize bottom up streams of mass of human power and to use the bottom up power to achieve the human to human desire for peace, that a lasting peace will be achieve.

    Human to human, not institution to human, actions are essential and necessary to keep and enforce the peace. No nation state, no ruler no matter his capacity or desire, no bute top down force, will ever be able to maintain peace amoung men, it will take humanity policing and commanding itself to level the experience to a common state of being that every human on this earth can share in.

    ""Foreign Minister Wang Yi[5] explained the model, “Throughout its five-thousand year history the Chinese nation has developed the humanistic-oriented concept of loving all creatures as if they were of our species and all people as if they were our brothers, the political philosophy of valuing virtue and balance, the peaceful approach of love, non-aggression and good-neighborliness, the idea of peace as of paramount importance and harmony without uniformity, as well as the personal conduct of treating others in a way that you would like to be treated, and helping others succeed in the same spirit as you would want to succeed yourself. These traditional values, with their unique oriental flavor, provide an endless source of invaluable cultural asset for China’s diplomacy.”""

    While I agree those ideals are desirable, the problem is, they require organized state use of rule and police force to bring them about and to maintain them pluse those do not address the inequitiable distribution of the assets and means to "the best life possible while on this earth, to every human being"; Hence the fault in Yis model is exposed. Any people that set out to force another people to accommodate the demands of the first people is apt to fail. Peace among men can only be achieved by man himself.. and even so much as one man not desiring peace, means all others will not be allowed peace.

    These trade agreements do not provide benefit to all people equally.. but I agree the Asian Infrastructure Invement bank, AIIB, balanced the power of the Federal Reserve bank cartel.
    We now have a better balance in the world, and that we owe to China's leadership..
    But bankers and banks are about unequal distribution of the resources needed to establish, promote and endure.. Not until the world needs no bankers, will the humans that occupy the world be a peace.

    very interesting article thanks GR.. excellent and timely
    but how will China hand this incident?
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/13/598423/Explosions-Oil-Tankers-Sea-of-Oman

  50. it is only possible to become a superpower if sufficient surplus energy is available to sustain that superiority,

    If China or the USa went to all out war, it would drain their economy to such an extent that they would both revert to third world countries with peasant economies

    neither would have superiority—if one predominated over the other, there would be no economic system left in the world whereby one of them might gain some form of economic advantage. to put it simply, there would be no one with the means to make anything or to buy anything.

    The economic infrastructure by which we all live would cease to exist, and the means by which the war machines, (oil) would cease to flow, A war between the USA and china would set the gulf region on fire within a day or two, either side would do that to prevent the other side from taking it.

    With Gulf oil out of the equation it would be game over for all of us. Each would drain their oil reserves in pursuit of victory.

    Each would claim victory.

    and then

    nothing.

    If either side, (as likely) started tossing nukes as a final throw of the dice, it would be less than nothing.

    All wars are about resources, each is desperate for oil, but the oilparty is no over:

    https://medium.com/future-vision/the-oilparty-is-over-c06d3c723655

  51. Iris says:
    @FB

    Hi again FB;

    radio waves don’t propagate through sea water…

    This is a real project too; somehow, the Chinese seem to have succeeded where the US and Russia failed, by building ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) antennas that allow communicating with submarines.

    “The project, Wireless Electromagnetic Method (WEM), has taken 13 years to build, and is now ready to transmit, Chinese researchers stated.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/new-york-sized-antenna-for-possible-submarine-communication-hidden-inside-china_2754551.html

    You are right about Karlin; somebody charitable should inform him that there exist OCD medication for his racist derangement syndrome. Best.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  52. buttercup says:

    I am not an American. I have read the posts on this thread to much astonishment. The people of the US are, in U.S. language, ‘screwed’. Out of a population of 330 million, over 70% are economically challenged. This means those working are living from paycheck to paycheck. They can barely travel out of State never mind China. Indoctrinated from birth that the U.S. is a special place with special people was and is a huge lie that mostly all bought into. No one trusts the country least of all God!

    U.S. history is shameful and criminal from beginning and now the approaching end. China is the future of the planet. And no, the Chinese are not really Americans in disguise, all seeking money, money, money. Who told you that? CNN, NBC, MNBC? Take away the WMDs and the U.S. would be ignored. Of course the history books will have to be re-written, the children re-taught, the culture re-refined and the fraudulent and sickening greed stopped. The U.S. could have been more of a shining light, but greed, stupidity, incompetence and gross wholesale violence took away any soul America ever had. A sad story and three hundred years in the making!

    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    , @last straw
  53. Lot says:

    I am concerned that China’s growing ties with Armenia will mean the next generation of Kardashians will be Chinese nationalists. Think of what that would mean for world politics!

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  54. David says:
    @Chinese live in China

    I have no idea how much of what you wrote is true, but it’s a lot more interesting and informative than the article you’re commenting on.

  55. Lot says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    “No official Chinese stat has ever been disproven”

    Of course they’re faked by the totalitarian government, for example economic growth and power production stats don’t line up in China the way they do in other countries.

    They also understate inflation.

    • LOL: Iris
    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  56. Fantastic! This rise of China stuff is great news.

    American Jews, did you hear that? It’s time to pack up and decamp to China, that’s where the action is at. You’d better move now so you can get in on the ground floor. Leave the doddering old USA to struggle along on its own. We’ll sure be sorry to see you go, but heh, all good things must end, no?

    Oh, and take your magic and pet Negros with you, will you? Can’t wait to see the movies you’ll make over there in which Morgan Freeman, dressed up as Lao Tzu astride his ox, offers inscrutable advice to Chinese engineers.

    • LOL: Zumbuddi
  57. @buttercup

    Most of us, we Americans, didn’t want to become an empire. Since before 1900, reliable polls have shown that the majority of Americans have been isolationist, stay home and take-care-of-our-own-business types. Our corrupt and venal Congress–guilty of everything in your list–follows the mandate of Israel. We citizens are subjects of an alien, occupying enemy. The destruction of the USA in its current incarnation may be the best thing that could happen for the average American.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  58. Anon[421] • Disclaimer says:

    The author doesn’t deserve his US citizenship. We can read where his loyalty is:
    the Chinese communist party. China never had a Jefferson, only emperors,
    warlords and a communist one-party dictatorship. Come to think of it, he and
    Liz and Bernie would make good bedfellows. Every article he writes reeks of propaganda.

    • Agree: jim jones
    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Godfree Roberts
  59. Anon[421] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Well then time to pack your bags for that journey to Shambala.

  60. anon[144] • Disclaimer says:

    “May 31, 2019 China Could Devestate U.S. Military With Rare Earth Materials Ban?”

    There are other sources. In fact, there used to be mines in the US. That is until the greedy, short-sighted capitalists shut them down and decided to just import everything. Morons. Most of the US’s problems are self-inflicted.

  61. Moi says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    Keep living in Fantasyland, and watch China become the leading power. America had it’s chance and blew it with its aggressive militarism and servitude to Israel.

    Sorry, but we just don’t have the biggest dick anymore, just mostly dickheads here at home.

    • Agree: Realist
    • Replies: @Thinking Out Loud
  62. Iris says:
    @Anon

    and a communist one-party dictatorship

    …who serves the Chinese, while the US has a Zionist one-party dictatorship who serves Israel.

    Why citizenship are you?

  63. jim jones says:

    Clearly we need to send the Gurkhas into Hong Kong to impose freedom on the Ant People:

  64. @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Why would Iran want to poke the bear on purpose?

    Anyone with half a brain would know the Saudis did it, under the gentle guidance of the Israelis of course.

  65. @Rabbitnexus

    I can see.
    I can see that your attitude is that if any mischief happens in the world it must be Israels.
    I do see it as Iran’s warning to USA.
    Eventually we will find who is right.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  66. @Thinking Out Loud

    Both tankers entered magnetic mine field relatively close to Iranian shore. Nobody know when the mines were placed and by whom. But the suspicion is that it was Iran.

  67. @Moi

    America had it’s chance and blew it with its aggressive militarism and servitude to Israel.

    We got jewed.

    The tribe hit the jackpot by seizing control of the US. They have a stranglehold on this country from coast to coast, top to bottom. The eventual goal of course, is to control the world from Jerusalem, as the Talmud intended. That’s why the Zionists in the Trump admin are now going out of their way to sabotage China’s growth, esp. in tech. Jews see power and control as an existential necessity. There is no way they will ever let any group have more power and control than them, because what if that new power refuses to protect Israel? It will be swallowed whole by its Muslim neighbors.

    It will be interesting to see what comes of this trade war with China. If they capitulate, we might as well declare Jerusalem capital of the world and get it over with.

    • Replies: @Wally
  68. @Thinking Out Loud

    BTW bear is Russia. US is eagle. And Israel is monkey.

  69. Jason Liu says:

    I’m gonna assume Godfree gets paid to write this stuff, in which case I will advise that good propaganda is supposed to be subtle. Not over the top talking points.

    —-

    The issue here is that trading partners are not actual allies. They’re just customers. Even assuming the best case scenario for growth, China will not be able to overcome the combined economic or military power of the US plus its allies, especially not if Japan or India is aligned with the US.

    You can’t lead the world alone, so Beijing has to do something soon to change the map because the US is trying to isolate China geopolitically.

    • LOL: FB
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @Godfree Roberts
  70. gT says:
    @Chinese live in China

    That is the fantasy version of the composition of the modern Chinese mainlander, the party approved version. The real version is: any modern Chinese (mainlander) is made up of 2 parts, not 4, namely

    1. revolutionary and equal spirit from Chairman Mao
    2. materialism and “money above all” from Deng Xiaoping

    And thats it, so all China is about “is fighting for money”.

    Your first 2 parts are imagined. Modern Chinese mainlanders are all of peasant decent. They don’t have the faintest clue about the “pride and glory of history and culture from the ancient thousands years”, nor do they have the faintest clue about the “humiliation and failure of the recent hundreds years” – because in all those thousands of years and hundreds of years, they as peasants were just groveling and dying in the rice paddies, clueless as to what was happening even 1km from them.

    Mao himself wanted to get rid of all ancient Chinese history so that China could progress. Remember The Four Olds; Old Customs, Old Culture, Old Habits, and Old Ideas – Mao wanted to get rid of all of that in his Cultural Revolution, he even wanted to get rid of sparrows and rats and who knows what else. So the ancient Chinese history and culture was erased from mainland Chinese minds on pain of death. As other commentators have mentioned in the past, Taiwan was the one who cherished and preserved everything ancient Chinese.

    Modern mainland Chinese history and culture started from Mao’s time, so its barely 60 years old, the ancient China is gone, it was destroyed by peasant scum. As a nation and culture 60 years old, China is a mere child in international terms. And as a child it behaves exactly as a child does, it is possessive, everything it touches “is mine”, doesn’t share, is impulsive, sulks, tantrums, throws the toys out the cot, etc.

    The ancient Chinese count amongst the Greats of Humanity, but these modern mainland Chinese are just peasant scum with very big heads. Now that they have a few $$$ in their pockets for the first time in their miserable existence they think they are the bees knees. No wonder none of China’s neighbours trust China, even Russia is probably very vary of a Chinese invasion of Siberia, which China claims as its own. Russia remembers how China just impulsively attacked instead of negotiating for a tiny, irrelevant island in a river. As many commentators have mentioned in the past, the British don’t claim all of their previous empire territories, the Russian’s don’t claim all of their previous empire territories, but China claims all of its previous empire territories, even when the territories were conquered by Mongols and Manchus and not by Chinese, and then some.

    In summary, all China is about “is fighting for money”, and if you don’t allow China to have money, even your own money, China is going to be very spiteful and nasty towards you. If China does not get its way in any matter, China is going to be very spiteful and nasty towards you, if you don’t buy Chinese shit, China is going to be very spiteful and nasty towards you, atantrum continua.

    Ignoring those Chosen People of God idiots (Jews), who believe that the Mandate of Heaven is their sole prerogative – The Mandate of Heaven does not belong to China, nor does it belong to the USA, there is currently only one country in the world worthy of the Mandate of Heaven, and its leader is also the only leader in the world currently worthy of the Mandate of Heaven, but both can’t be bothered about it.

  71. denk says:
    @Thulean Friend

    The US has a network of alliances – really, vassal states – that it can utilise. Witness how it got ARM – a Japanese company with most of its R&D in the UK – to stop supplying Huawei with critical IP instruction sets needed in order to build its own computer chips and SoCs. That’s the power of the US.

    Unitedsnakes
    ‘All the world are belong to us’

    ‘Prompeo’s message is enough to understand that the US doesn’t want Nepal’s partnership with China, particularly on BRI.
    The above are the main conditions to receive 500 million US dollar support under the Millennium Challenge Corporation already announced by the US.
    Earlier, this Weekly had reported that if Nepal will deny to join the Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed at encircling China, she will not only be disqualified from any kind of support from the US, but also, the Oli led government would face political crisis in the near future. [1]
    Sources claim that the American embassy had strongly opposed installation of the computer networking software developed by Chinese company, Huawei Telecom in the war room at the PMO and computer networking in the cabinet ministers’ secretariat. Later, the government was compelled to cancel the agreement with the Huawei company and rewarding the company recommended by the Americans.
    \
    http://peoplesreview.com.np/olis-foreign-policy-under-the-us-trap/

    murikka, the global tyrant.

    As China grows larger, it also grows more arrogant, meaning that the scope for alienation of its neighbours increases as well

    Puleeeze, !

    How the murikkans took out anyone who’s friendly to
    China,

    Jp [regime change]
    SK [regime change]
    Malaysia [regime change, terrorism]
    Oz [regime change]
    Indonesia [regime change, 1965 , one of the worst genocide of the 20C],
    Nepal [one assasination in 2001, entire royal family wiped out by CIA/RAW, two more regime changes in later years to remove ‘Panda huggers’]
    Sri lanka [regime change in 2015]
    Bhutan [regime chanbge 2013]
    Myanmar, [regime change to install Aung San Su Zi]
    Maldives [regime change 2019]

    So the murikkans took out all Panda huggers , install its anti Chinese patsy, then blame it on those ‘arrogant Chicoms’ who manage to
    alienate all their neighbours, !

    The ultimate in …
    ROBBER CRYING ROBBERY !

    [1]
    sic
    Truly gangland extortion style !

  72. denk says:
    @Tired of Not Winning

    If Im murikkan, the last thing on my mind would be China , or for that matter, Mars….

    http://sainthoward.blogspot.com/2014/12/putting-saints-in-jail.html

  73. Dug says:

    The article is informative in many ways, but has limited variable depth. China and the rest of the world will begin serious energy and then food shortages during the next two decades. Those shortages will cripple the economic international transportation of exports and particularly food. Due to China’s high population, this makes China extremely sensitive to both energy and related food economics. Not being able to economically transport food and other finite critical resources from China’s suppliers and farm colonies in Africa and SA will limit Chinese expansion and hegemony – and probably collapse the global economies as well. Two decades from now China will not be at the top of the list for threats to the world or what remains of it.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  74. Raven says:

    Perhaps 2 books worth reviewing:

    1. Bertrand Russell (Philosopher) “The Problems of China” (as I remember it ),

    2. Edwin Dingle’s book ( Journalist) “Across China on Foot”

    Both were written in the early 1900s . Yet they saw through the turmoil and great upheaval in China to basically state that when/if China becomes the dominant power, there will be world peace.

  75. @gT

    Naughty naughty! Why are you leaving us in suspense?

  76. Another eye-opening piece by Mr. Roberts!

    Love reading your work, very informative. It’s always good to experience different perspectives

  77. peterAUS says:
    @Incoh

    I can’t decide if you’re revolting or hysterical.

    You know, I really think it’s not that.

    A man that disconnected from reality can’t function well in organized society.
    I just have a feeling he approaches this as writing fantasy and, quite likely, getting some, ahm, “remuneration” for it.
    Good gig when you think about it.

    As for this site, it’s simply serves one of its purposes: venting.

  78. peterAUS says:
    @Jason Liu

    I’m gonna assume Godfree gets paid to write this stuff, in which case I will advise that good propaganda is supposed to be subtle. Not over the top talking points.

    That depends on the target of the effort.
    I have a feeling it does work well with certain strata of society. Any society.

  79. lysias says:

    We in the U.S. and the rest of the West do not have Athenian democracy. We choose our officials through election and appointment by elected officials. Athens chose most of its officials through sortition, I.e., choosing them by lot from the whole body of adult male citizens, rich and poor alike. Athenians and other ancient Greeks like Aristotle considered sortition to be a democratic way of choosing officials, and election to be an aristocratic or oligarchic way.

    And what we in fact have with our elections is not democracy, but oligarchy. To be more precise, the plutocratic form of oligarchy. Which over time is degenerating into kakistocracy, the rule of the worst, rule by sociopaths.

    • Agree: FB
  80. peterAUS says:
    @gT

    From

    That is the fantasy version..

    to

    …. atantrum continua.

    informative.

  81. anon[855] • Disclaimer says:

    “The author doesn’t deserve his US citizenship. We can read where his loyalty is:
    the Chinese communist party.”

    Reee. Butthurt. Go ‘Murca ya’ll. We don’t need no facts and logic. Let’s reee because a guy burst the boomertard bubble with uncomfortable facts, none of which we can refute. Let’s just keep on trucking as the police state purges YouTube channels that say things the deepstate doesn’t like. Yeah, let’s all rush off to die in a huge war for that. Can’t wait to get killed defending the likes of Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, and AOC.

  82. anon[347] • Disclaimer says:

    “Even assuming the best case scenario for growth, China will not be able to overcome the combined economic or military power of the US plus its allies, especially not if Japan or India is aligned with the US.”

    Sure they can.

    1) GDP by itself isn’t necessarily a good indicator of economic d0minance. The British Empire circa 1800 had a GDP roughly equivalent to China’s but which one of those two entities were stronger? In the future, China will have a much more dynamic economy that monopolizes essentially all the best technology and engineering companies in a way that other economies cannot even hope to match, even when combined. China’s economy will be so large that it will be able to afford massive R&D costs that other countries cannot match.

    A similar phenomenon explains why Hollywood is so much more dominant over every other movie industry on earth; Hollywood can afford much larger production budgets, which ends up pushing smaller competitors out of the international market. Also, GDP isn’t a good measure in this respect because many of the services across nations are double counted. Much as a corporate merger reduces jobs by removing unnecessary inefficiencies, China’s economy will probably be more dynamic than multiple smaller economies combined.

    2) The US military in 1994 was probably more powerful than the rest of the world’s military forces combined, that despite the US being much less than half of global defense expenditures. This is not a linear relationship. The economy of scale of the US military in terms of R&D and infrastructure gave it an advantage far beyond what one might otherwise naively think. For example, I could probably go back in time to the second world war and gift the Japanese a couple dozen Arleigh-Burke destroyers with accompanying munitions and that would have changed the outcome, that despite the US having much greater overall resources – including having around 100 aircraft carriers of various type by 1945. The advantages conferred by R&D greatly accelerate above a certain threshold. I can easily imagine the conventional aspect of the Chinese military in 2044 being more powerful than the rest of the world’s military forces combined; and as with the economic example, a unified military under a single command will probably be more efficient and effective than multiple independent militaries under some loose command of the US.

    3) India isn’t going to be allied with the US in the future. India is a deeply conservative country experiencing a nationalist upswing; the US is a pozzed empire offensive to many Indians. If anything, they’ve moved away from the US in recent years and closer to Russia. In fact, they specifically refused to back the US during Crimea. India will continue playing both sides against themselves as she seeks to gain preeminence on her own terms in the future. That means being on good terms with both Russia and China while buying Russian weapons as a hedge against American domination. In fact, the US is desperately trying to get India to buy her weapons by insisting they can continue buying Russian weapons, a privileged they aren’t extending to NATO ally Turkey. I would state that India stands just as much risk of being an American adversary as China one day.

    4) There is also the fact that the US is disintegrating demographically. As the author notes, there is a significant (and growing) fraction of the US population that would refuse to fight for the United States in a large war. That fraction will certainly grow with time as patriotism and social cohesion decline. Why would your average white male fight for a police state that despises it and floods their homelands with foreigners? I’ve just heard that a popular YouTube channel, Blackpigeon Speaks, has been banned. Make no mistake as I am familiar with their content, they did NOTHING wrong other than having opinions the American police state doesn’t like. They were censored by a police state while hateful left-wing propagandists like TYT, Sam Seder, and David Pakman remain on the platform. I won’t be fighting for that kind of country. The moment the US gets into a serious conflict with China, the public will abandon the effort. China, on the other hand, has a large unified population ready to sacrifice. Everyone sees the writing on the wall, so you can expect many of the US’s overseas commitments to get nervous in coming years. Some will be tempted to abandon the US and make peace with China on favorable terms before she gets too powerful.

    5) At 3-4x the size of the American economy, China could easily be somewhere near 40 or 50% of global GDP while the US and Europe fall to around half of where they are now. China is absolutely going to dominate the future. In fact, around 2040 the US will likely have a global GDP share roughly where Japan was circa 1989. That nation isn’t dominating the world anymore.

    “You can’t lead the world alone, so Beijing has to do something soon to change the map because the US is trying to isolate China geopolitically.”

    They already are. They are signing trade agreements galore, making deals with resource-rich African countries (which they are gearing their military up to protect), building a massive military, and building institutions to compete with and ultimately replace the IMF and World Bank. And as noted in the article, Europe abandoned the US over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; they will go where the money is. The geopolitical landscape is going to change drastically over the next 30 years.

    • Replies: @Jason Liu
  83. Anonymous[143] • Disclaimer says:

    Pompeo just told us it was Iran. Now that settles it.

    Everything Pompeo, Pence, Bolton or Kushner tells you, just believe the opposite, and you’ll be right.

    Why on God’s green earth would Iran want to bomb a Japanese tanker in the middle of a visit by the Japanese PM to Iran? They are neither crazy nor stupid.

    Zionists are arrogant to the point of stupid. They really think most people in the world will buy this BS. It’s no wonder they’re getting the cold shoulder from Germany. Merkel had a case of temporary insanity when she let the migrants in, read too much of the Rothschild mouthpiece The Economist, she’s woken up since.

  84. Anonymous[143] • Disclaimer says:

    Jews and Chinese are fighting for supremacy. Neither are an admirable race. Regardless of who wins, the future doesn’t bode well for mankind.

  85. Wally says:
    @Biff

    So what?

    Violent crime is rampant in the US. Pay attention.

  86. Wally says:
    @Thinking Out Loud

    said:
    “It will be interesting to see what comes of this trade war with China. If they capitulate, we might as well declare Jerusalem capital of the world and get it over with.” *

    What trade war with China?

    The US is merely retaliating with relatively small tariffs on Chinese goods compared to China’s already massive tariffs on US goods.

    * Hey, I dislike Zionist dominance the of US as much as anyone, but don’t get carried away with statements like you just made.

  87. @Rich

    When China shuts off its export of rare-earth metals for, say, five years, what happens to the manufacturers, militaries, hospitals, and economies of the USA, Japan, South Korea, and Germany?

    Those metals are needed for medically and industrially widely-used products: lasers, batteries, portable x-ray equipment, MRIs, PETscan equipment, naval sonar equipment, earthquake monitors, fluorescent lamps, hard disk drives, fiber-optic technology, etc.

    Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric vehicles rely on these metals too.

    IIRC, China has already induced japan to back down in a dispute by withholding rare earth metal exports from Japan for less than a year.

    The notion of the US “winning” ignores obscure but significant sources of Chinese leverage and power to quickly cripple us, like them having much of the world’s reserves of rare-earth metals.

    • Replies: @SteveK9
    , @Rich
    , @Parisian Guy
  88. Rich says:
    @FB

    I’ll bet you’re looking for a cartoon right now to explain it. How’s the nickel deposit business going?

  89. SteveK9 says:

    Whenever I read these detailed discussions of a conventional war between the US and China (or Russia), two questions come to mind: 1) Why do you believe this would not escalate into an all-out nuclear exchange? and 2) Do you believe that anyone in China (or Russia) or the US would survive this?

    Remember the US may still have those crappy, old-fashioned ICBM’s, but it has thousands of them. And those warheads also travel at Mach 20. They don’t maneuver like the fancy hypersonic glide warheads, but to defend yourself, you would still be trying to hit thousands of targets, the size of a car, falling from space at 25,000 kph.

    These ‘war scenarios’ are dangerous fantasies that no one should be entertaining.

  90. SteveK9 says:
    @RadicalCenter

    What happens? You get them from somewhere else, or mine them yourself (they are not actually ‘rare’)). I agree that this might not happen overnight and could causes a real disruption. If the US policy makers had any sense they would make a government policy to open some mines … now.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  91. Jason Liu says:
    @anon

    Even if all that is true, China’s future is still much more secure with an alliance of like-minded neighbors. Being surrounded by enemies is a dangerous position no matter how you slice it. Africa and South America are nice, but they’re not gonna help us in a real conflict. Russia and Pakistan are too poor to help in non-military confrontations, like this trade war. Just Japan and Korea siding with China would probably shatter the liberal world order.

    I think you are overestimating America’s fractures. If anything Beijing’s moronic PR seems to have unified the Democrats and Republicans, something I thought was impossible up until recently.

    I do worry about India because it seems to have a liberal streak, and its elites are unusually liberal and west-worshiping for a developing country. But I admit they could go either way. China should still take precautions not to drive India into America’s arms, though.

  92. Rich says:
    @RadicalCenter

    I understand that there are several other nations that have the ability to provide “rare earth” metals, including the US. Recently I saw an interview with the very excited CEO of an American “rare earth” company from the Southwest.

    The interesting question, in my view, is , if all those pro-Red China authors and commenters are correct, is whether the US might not engage the Chicoms in a hot war. The Reds, by all accounts, are still somewhat behind the US in military matters, so the US could be persuaded to attack. Untested Chinese tech and troops might not be as capable as predicted, and the US does, in the end, have overwhelming nuclear superiority which could be employed. Right now, most serious military strategists believe the US could defeat the Red Chinese. Maybe some of the folks at the Pentagon will persuade the president that now is the time to fight.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @nsa
  93. @buttercup

    I am not an American. I have read the posts on this thread to much astonishment. The people of the US are, in U.S. language, ‘screwed’. Out of a population of 330 million, over 70% are economically challenged. This means those working are living from paycheck to paycheck. They can barely travel out of State never mind China. Indoctrinated from birth that the U.S. is a special place with special people was and is a huge lie that mostly all bought into. No one trusts the country least of all God!

    This nicely explains why 33% (presumably poorer) Americans wants to live overseas. About 50% gave “leaving a bad or disappointing situation in the US” as a reason for leaving.

    https://www.kent.ac.uk/news/society/20593/one-third-of-americans-consider-living-abroad#

  94. @Anon

    Thanks for saving me an hour and indigestion!

  95. Galan says:
    @gT

    China should not lead the world. Neither there should be any other country or nation with ‘Mandate of Heaven’. If there is such a mandate it belongs to humanity. We should eventually have a world government, a confederation of nations, something along the lines of the EU.

    The military forces of all countries should merge and establish an integrated world force. This force will be responsible for handling natural disasters, space exploration, and handling local disturbances that are beyond the control of the local police. In addition to global security the world government will be responsible for few things such as handling global environmental problems and international trade. Everything else will be left to national governments.

    The current tribal/nationalist fervor need to be countered. If not it will lead to a disastrous war that can destroy life on earth.

  96. @Lot

    Chinese women with great asses?

  97. @Lot

    China’s trade figures are tracked by a dozen entities. Their environment figures are tracked by NASA. Their wages are tracked by the ILO. Their national debt is tracked by the BIS…..

    Perhaps you doubt China’s population figures? Perhaps you’ve never been to China?

    • Replies: @Lot
  98. @Anon

    It’s time to pull Fred Reed’s citizenship, too. Read his latest, and weep:

    The View from Abroad: America as Others See it. http://www.unz.com/freed/the-view-from-abroad/

  99. @Jason Liu

    I’m gonna assume Godfree gets paid to write this stuff. Nobody gets paid to write positively about China. If you want to make money, write anti-China articles.

    Good propaganda is supposed to be subtle. Not over the top talking points. Correctamento! Everything I’ve written is disprovable, so why not try disproving it?

  100. @gT

    Mao was a peasant and a keen student of the Classics, “Confucius is the beginning of the precious legacy which makes up the specific characteristics of China. Consequently, the sinification of Marxism–that is to say, making certain that in all its manifestations it is imbued with Chinese characteristics is our most pressing task,”

    • Replies: @DB Cooper
  101. @Dug

    I’ve been reading predictions like yours for sixty years and none have come true.

    Are you aware that the Chinese government has addressed the issues you raise and has at least forty programs designed to anticipate them. I will write about them in the future.

  102. @Rich

    Most most serious military strategists believed we could defeat the Philippines, Vietnam, Iraq….

    • Replies: @Rich
  103. Anonymous[297] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    “language barrier, insurmountable”

    Translation technologies are already quite good

    Wechat has excellent Mandarin-English translation built in. It’s leaps and bounds above the babblefish standard of the past.

    But you’re neglecting one important factor. That’s that other countries are starting to place more emphasis on learning Mandarin. The first adopters were tourist guides in places like Siem Reap and Bali, and now schools around the world are starting to introduce classes.

    Actually Mandarin is difficult mainly for two reasons : tonality and written form. The second is very much optional for casual conversation and the first just clicks after some time trying. After this, Mandarin is actually a lot easier than many European languages. No inflection, simple grammar, no gender, easy tense.

    So ignoring the written form, it’s actually fairly easy for anyone with an economic interest to pick up. Perhaps we will sit back and watch mandarin replace English all over Africa, in the same way English replaced French and Dutch in SE Asia.

    • Agree: Erebus
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  104. @Iris

    French submarine have radiocommunication by means of very low frequencies, since many years. The one thousand feet terrestrial antenna is in the west suburb of Paris, in Carrières sur Seine/Houilles.

    I guess all serious sub navy have it too. For instance, if they don’t have it, how could the chief of state command a nuclear missile launching.

  105. El Dato says:

    Ok, I get it. The question is “How fucked are we?”

    But this is complete bullshit:

    From space, hyperspectral detection satellites peer at submerged submarines while the enormous Divine Eagle High Altitude Stealth-Hunting Drone reads aircraft electronic signals long before they approach their targets. Below them AWACS, whose solid-state detectors have twice the range of USAF’s rotating domes, track hundreds of targets and integrate information from the West Pacific Surveillance and Targeting satellite and twelve positioning satellites with ten centimeter accuracy. On the ground, passive and quantum radars emit no detectable signals while tracking objects for Russia’s S-400 antiaircraft/antimissile batteries.

    I don’t think so. Magic (“hyperspectral detection satellites peer at submerged submarines “), and Hollywood tech based on keywords (“quantum radar”) is not yet implemented. Stop watching Chinese movies.

    Actually most of the tech section reads like a SciFi infodump. US systems are dubious at best and complete shit at worst (F-35 the non-flying joke around which the UK has built two aircraft carriers like a good intellectually challenged rube) but this applies to PRC system too.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  106. DB Cooper says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Mao denounces Confucius. There was actually a political campaign to denounce Confucius called ‘批林批孔’,which means “Denounce Lin Denounce Kong”. Lin refers to Lin Biao, his one time designated successor who died in a plane clash after a failed coup, Kong means Confucius. Under Mao’s reign Confucius temples were desecrated and smashed to pieces by the red guards. Traditional Chinese festivals were banned. Even Chinese characters were briefly abolished. For a period of time during the 1970s if you buy products made in China you wouldn’t find a single Chinese characters anywhere in the packaging. Everything was written in pinyin. Pinyin was not invented so people nowadays can type Chinese into mobile phones or computers. It was invented to replace Chinese characters in a manner like the Vietnamese write their language.

  107. Lot says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    I was talking about GDP growth figures. Non-Chinese sources basically all agree they are overstated, just a question of by how much. The USSR and other communist dictatorships did the same.

  108. @RadicalCenter

    90% of produced rare earth is neodymium, which makes powerful magnet for electric motors.
    All these magnets can be replaced by more bulky or slightly less efficient technical solution.
    The only problem is when high power/weight ratio is mandatory, that is for all the aerial machines: quadcopter motors, “fly by wire” electric actuators, etc..

    Most of what is said about rare earth is told by people who have no expertise on the matter and are only parroting what another ignorant parrot wrote. For instance, the need of rare earth for batteries is actually pure bullshit.

  109. Rich says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Were you an actual historian, you would know the US defeated the Vietnamese in every major battle, and that the communist government came crawling to the peace table begging for terms. It was two years after the US withdrew that the North defeated the South. The US defeated the Filipine insurgents easily, installed a government friendly to the US and remain allies to this day. You may not have noticed, but Saddam Hussein is no longer in power and the present government remains an American puppet. But I’m sure you have Mao’ s little red book memorized.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  110. @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Don’t take it too seriously. Dude has gone mental. You are 100% entitled to your opinion, so is he. No reason to spit blood like he does just because of your opinion.

    Commenters here do get overtly emotional at times.

  111. @Lot

    Then come up with different sources other than the IMF and world bank. Your move.

  112. @Anonymous

    I tried to learn it. I was scared off by the amount of word parts I had to memorized.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  113. Agent76 says:

    Oct 5, 2018 Chinese Warship Plays Chicken with US Navy

    Chris Chappell goes over all of this
    headlines, from a game of chicken between two navy destroyers, to the sudden reemergence of Chinese superstar Fan Bingbing!

  114. nsa says:
    @Rich

    “….most serious military strategists believe the US could defeat the Red Chinese.”
    Care to divulge the names of those serious strategists you refer to? Possibly the old coot perched on the bar stool next to you down at the VFW lounge, knocking down $2 doubles and still fighting the big one? You clowns got your butts kicked by 40 million lightly armed Vietnamese, so how are you going to fare against 1,400 million heavily armed Chinese?

  115. denk says:
    @Incoh

    Tibet

    WTF does a mushroom know about Tibet beyond the B.S. fed to you 24×7 ?

    HK

    We often heard 5liars gloat on their ‘individuality’ and deride the Chinese as ‘conformists’.

    Reality check…

    When it comes to protests, uprising,
    This HK mayhem is kindergarten stuff .

    Thru out history the Chinese had brought down dozens of corrupt dynasties, including the Mongol and Manchu invaders.
    The last one to fall was the murikkan backed KMT regime.

    Ergo,
    The Chinese have zero tolerance for snafu.

    Which begs the question….

    Where’r those ‘free spirited’, ‘independent‘ anglos when their govn do shits like this….
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/51172.htm

    The silence is deafening.

    Either the anglos aint so ‘independent’ as advertised,
    or they themselves are ok with such shits up to their eyeballs !

  116. @El Dato

    The developer of China’s hyperspectral imaging satellite won last year’s National Science Medal.

    At the 2018 Zhouhai Air Show they were taking orders for quantum radars.

    This year’s medal went to Liu Yongtan for his invention of surface wave radar.

  117. @Lot

    Non-Chinese sources basically all agree on almost everything about China and have always been wrong.

    Here’s a series showing why those sources (actually one source, many mouthpieces) insist–with zero evidence–that China’s stats are overstated:

    1990. China’s economy has come to a halt. The Economist
    1996. China’s economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
    1998. China’s economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
    1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
    2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
    2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
    2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
    2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
    2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
    2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
    2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
    2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
    2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
    2009. China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
    2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
    2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
    2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest 
    2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge 
    2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
    2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes 
    2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
    2017. Is China’s Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
    2018. China’s Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.

    • Replies: @Lot
  118. @Rich

    Correct, and the US has never won a war.

    • Replies: @Rich
  119. Rich says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Never? We didn’t win the Revolutionary war, the Indian wars, Spanish-American war, Mexican-American war, WW1,WW2, South Korea remains free and prosperous, the Taliban are out of Kabul, living in the bush, the Iraqi leadership was wiped out and a puppet government installed and the US remains the preeminent world power. Pretty good for a country that “never won a war”.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  120. JNDillard says:

    Reading through these comments it is amazing how many readers parrot the cultural stereotypes toward the Chinese that the West uses to reassure itself that it is superior. The problem is that the West is no longer superior. This is obvious now to anyone except ideologues. It betrayed what noble values it exemplified centuries ago with colonialism, which arose in lockstep with the Western Enlightenment. China, in contrast, has never been a colonialistic country. It assimilated Tibet because of its claim that Tibet was historically part of China. But has it had such claims on Mongolia or North Korea or Vietnam? No. China’s historical priority has been commerce, largely internal. Now it is internationalizing that model globally, in ways that are already transforming entire national blocks and the balance of world power. Steven Pinker names commerce as one of the fundamental civilizing forces that reduces global violence. I agree. And to the extent that China is exporting a far less exploitative commercial model than the West offers strongly implies that it is a major – perhaps THE major – civilizing force in the world today.

  121. Pontius says:

    I wish it were all so Godfree, but I am thinking a hegemonic China will turn as greedy, violent and cynical as any other country. I find the Chinese “get rich at all cost” ethos to be disappointing to say the least, which is not to say we have been any better in the west. It appears (I hope) to be limited to the avaricious elite here, whereas it seems to be regarded as a positive character trait in China.

    The obvious mistreatment of animals and complete disregard for the environment by the Chinese does not argue in their favour either.

    Still, on the whole I wish the Chinese well. I don’t believe there is any need for the level of mistrust and enmity being fomented by “our” side. Surely we can all learn to progress together at some point.

    On a mostly unrelated note, I feel the arrest and continued confinement of Meng Wangzhou is a continued blot on our national reputation.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  122. Pontius says:
    @Rabbitnexus

    The fact that there has been no ISIS activity to bugger up the flow of oil through the straight tells you all you need to know about who’s calling the shots.

  123. Yee says:

    LOL.. If you don’t follow NYT, CNN &etc. narrative of China, you’re a CCP propagandist…

    Why people come to this website if they only accept CNN views, I wonder.

  124. Lot says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Those are predictions about future growth that have been wrong. I think China will continue to have decent growth until its demographic weaknesses catch up with it. No other country features masses of 105 IQ workers who work for $1 or $2 an hour.

    The question of: “How much did China’s economy grow the past quarter” is where the central gov lies.

    Another one is the total amount of government debt as this is hidden in state-owned enterprises and provincial/local governments.

    By itself this debt won’t be a big issue, but it will make the crash that happens when the working-age population starts falling fast a great deal worse.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  125. Almost all of those 180,000 Chinese fishing boats will have to come out of the water. There are only two ways to do that; 1. Sink the boats, one at a time. or 2. Deny the boats access to fuel. The solution will have to be a combination of both.

    Guided missiles are very expensive; so it will probably be more effective to use torpedo boats, at close range. Unguided torpedoes are not very expensive. Then it will be necessary to destroy all Chinese fuel depots; and to warn all countries which have a port that refueling a Chinese fishing boat (Or for that matter, any Chinese boat) is grounds for retaliation.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  126. As a matter of emphasis, I wouldn’t say China is integrating the UN into its plans. The UN Charter has been integral to Chinese doctrine for 60 years. And the Charter is the sole essential part of the UN.

    China’s Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence are mostly straight from the UN Charter. (They are: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.) The one departure is equality and mutual benefit. Equality prefigures UNSC reform efforts because the veto and the P5 waterfall are antithetical to equality. Mutual benefit anticipates the right to development, which every country in the world signed onto – except the USA.

    Interestingly, the five principles were jointly proposed by China, India and Myanmar in the 1950s. But no matter how multilateral it is, US state propaganda will find a way to call it ethnocentric. That’s Western orientalist indoctrination, the fixation with tracing current doctrine to ancient texts. The Five Principles are certainly alien to American eyes, since they lack the foundation of US foreign policy – there’s no threat mentality. The threat mentality is so central to US policy that CIA ousted Gough Whitlam when he tried to get beyond it in Australia. Generations of US apparatchiks have their identity bound up in the threat mentality. Their amygdalas flame out when you don’t invoke it as a prius. These professional bedwetters are trained like seals to ask nothing but: Who’s the threat? Are they the threat? Or are they the threat? Or them, or them, or them, Who’s the threat? What if a president said, “What threat? I got three fuckin gigatons effective in this briefcase, baby. Nobody’s a threat to me.” JFK said it once, and CIA blew his brains out. Nobody said it after that. That’s how crucial the threat mentality is to the CIA regime.

    The Chinese state is not threatened by US government pissants. CIA can’t deal.

  127. denk says:
    @Lo

    Mr. Roberts forgets that China is surrounded by enemies on the North, East, and South.

    Wow, ‘those nasty Chicoms, imagine antagonising all their neighbors, pushing them towards the
    unitedsnakes.’

    Is it too much to ask for , before parroting such canard ad nauseum, to check the faq first. ?
    http://www.unz.com/article/when-china-leads-the-world/#comment-3267936

    if there is such thing as American exceptionalism, we must remember that Chinese probably invented Chinese exceptionalism thousands of years ago. We are talking about a people who believed their country was the center of the world,

    This must be the most ridiculous excuse ever trotted out by murikkan apologists.

    The Chinese ‘invented exceptionalism’ , really ?
    I dont recall them demanding the world to….
    Do as I say, not what I do !

    ‘Africans are already missing whites after meeting the Chinese (no joke!) [sic].

    Yet more ‘exceptional’ projection….
    Care to check the last world polling, ?
    China has its largest fan base in…..Africa !

    hehehehhe

    • LOL: Lo
  128. @Rich

    OK. We won the Indian wars, Spanish-American war, Mexican-American war.

    We were bit players in WWI and WWII (where we had to bring in a British commander when, horrors! the Germans counter-attacked) and had our asses whipped by ill-equipped volunteers in Korea.

    Other than that, zip.

    • Replies: @Rich
  129. @Pontius

    You’re restating the argument that China is like us. It’s not and has never been.

    The obvious mistreatment of animals began and continues with us in our hideous factory farms. And we are not alone: German court rules mass killing of chicks legal – CNN – CNN.com
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/13/europe/german-killing-chicks-legal…/index.html
    1 day ago – A German court has ruled that the poultry industry practice of killing unwanted chicks is still lawful, until an alternative can be found.

    The arrest and continued confinement of men in Guantanamo and Belmarsh is an even bigger blot, I would argue.

  130. @Lot

    “The question of: “How much did China’s economy grow the past quarter” is where the central gov lies.”

    Your logic is, “OK, the Chinese government has never lied in the past–as all international monitoring bodies, including the CIA, agree–but it will lie about the next quarter.

    And there is world wide agreement about the total amount of government debt, which is summarized and reported by the Bank for International Settlements every quarter, thus:

  131. @Ron B Liebermann

    How many torpedo boats (which have short ranges) will it take to sink 250,000 fishing boats?

    Assuming that a generous 50% of torpedoes hit their targets, how many unguided torpedoes, costing $800,000 each, will it take to get the job done?

    How many overseas US military bases will China have to destroy before the US stops wasting torpedoes on fishing boats?

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  132. Rich says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Really? Bit players in WW2? Who defeated Japan? Your communist heroes barely fought back. The Chinese were on all fours, giving their women to the Japs for fun until the US saved them. The Russians would be speaking German and cleaning German toilets if the US and England hadn’t opened up a second front and the US hadn’t supplied the Russkies with arms. Hate America all you want, but at least be truthful. Maybe one day your Chicom masters will take over, does that mean you have to practice denying reality right now? There’s nothing wrong with being wrong, everyone makes mistakes, just admit it and move on, okay?

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  133. @Rich

    Outside Hollywood, serious historians give us credit for 20% of the WWII victory and I believe that’s generous.

    We never faced an undefeated army in the field (Russia defeated Germany before Normandy) and the Pacific Theater was just that: theater.

    80% of Japanese troops were tied down in the mainland, where the Russians destroyed two of their best armies while the Chinese kept the rest occupied.

    The Japanese surrendered to us not because of the atomic bomb, which didn’t faze them, but because Russia was coming down the island chain. The Germans rushed to surrender to us ditto.

    I recommend a quantitative study, Europe at War 1939-1945: No Simple Victory, by Norman Davies as a starter.

    • Replies: @Rich
  134. anon[183] • Disclaimer says:

    I expect the US to get rolled in these trade agreements with China over the next few years. Trump is going to lose the 2020 election and the US has historically been ruled by an economic elite that works in its own, short-term, best interests, not in the best interests of the nationstate as a whole; that explains the disastrous free trade agreements signed by presidents before Donald Trump – benefited the rich while hurting the nation. That contrasts with China, and increasingly Russia, where the government regulates corporate entities in the best interest of the state (the people). After Trump goes down, the Ruling Class will quickly make peace with China on trade and go back to looting the country and outsourcing its technology and industrial base to China for short-term profit. Chinese companies will then begin to dominate global markets in the 2020s, establishing primacy in the mid to late 2030s.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
    , @Lo
  135. Rich says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Really? Should I start making a list of authors and “experts” you need to read? Someone, somewhere, with a PhD next to his name will write a book or article confirming whatever preconceived bias you or I have. That being said, I take nothing away from the Soviet Union and their victory on the Eastern Front, my argument is that without a Western Front, the Germans might have, even with the disaster at Stalingrad, managed to stop the Soviet advance and the Soviets wouldn’t have gotten anywhere without US supplies.
    It’s true that the Nationalists in China, with Western, mostly American, help did fight the Japanese while Mao and his band of murderous thugs hid out, hoping to stay strong enough to defeat the Nationalists after the US defeated Japan. But it was the US, and its other allies, who defeated the Japs in the sea and on the islands. The argument that it was the “threat” of Russian invasion, and not the threat of extinction as a race due to atomic attack, that caused the Nips to throw in the towel seems laughable to me, but if that’s where you want to go, go in peace.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  136. denk says:
    @Rich

    Rich..

    If the author is correct, and the Chicoms will reach military parity with the U.S. by 2028, then the US has no choice but to take the Reds out now

    Geoff Hanham

    The tragedy is that the USA have been seeking a ‘pre-emptive’ opportunity since the 1960s (if not before). I wonder if the ordinary folk of the States have even for one moment considered the monster that has spawned in that continent. I have relations there that are scared witless by both parties and have witnessed their children reduced to debt servitude.

    Yet, if you found a ‘country’ based upon genocide and the reduction (in the military sense) of the paltry survivors to abasement, there will, I believe, be a payback.

    What sort of ‘human’ conceives of the atom bomb – knowing full well the consequences ? And then, staring absolute sin full in the face realises the thermo-nuclear cobalt-jacketed hydrogen bomb ?

    North America was once a land full of beauty – but now ? Nuclear exchange is in the ‘capable’ hands of a ‘Deal Maker’, some ‘red-necked’ generals and – the insanity of it – A.I. ‘dead mans hands’ . . .

    Do these ‘things’ passing as human beings ever sleep at night . . . ?

    [Consortiumnews]

  137. @Godfree Roberts

    unguided torpedoes, costing $800,000 each,

    It looks like you overestimated the price. For $800,000 you can buy a cruise missile (for instance, a Tomahawk), which is quite more high tech than an unguided torpedo.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  138. @anon

    After Trump goes down, the Ruling Class will quickly make peace with China on trade and go back to looting the country and outsourcing its technology and industrial base to China for short-term profit.

    A big part of the looting is not taken from the country but from other nations.
    My guess is that at some moment, the ruling class will not be able anymore to delude itself, and will admit that, without industry, the USA are on the road to become a second order world power, which is no more able to profit from looting other nations.

    So, from one hand, like you do, I see there is one part of the ruling class which will be OK to continue as usual, because they’ll profit enough, like some kind of compradores in a China ruled world.
    But from the other hand, I see another part of the ruling class for which a world ruled by China means the loss of their privileges. For instances, the shareholders of loockeed martin, the Federal Reserve, and all the profiteers of the US Empire, such as the military class and the intelligence apparatus.

    May be, you will argue that they cannot change the political trend which prevailed for forty years. For sure, it looks like in the political game the short term interests prevails most of the times.
    That said, the miltary class and the intelligence apparatus could decide some day to play politics by their own means…
    Do they know of another way to avoid the US Empire demise?

  139. anon[183] • Disclaimer says:

    “That being said, I take nothing away from the Soviet Union and their victory on the Eastern Front, my argument is that without a Western Front, the Germans might have, even with the disaster at Stalingrad, managed to stop the Soviet advance and the Soviets wouldn’t have gotten anywhere without US supplies.”

    Nonsense. There wasn’t much of a Western Front until long after the Soviets began marching towards Germany from the east. And there is essentially zero evidence – other than rank speculation – supporting your “supply” thesis. All the best German divisions were on the Eastern Front throughout the entirety of the war and Germany took all of her highest losses there. Even after D-Day the Germans kept those divisions on the Eastern Front instead of shifting them back to the West, detailing exactly who they thought the real threat was from. Those two facts alone trump your speculation about “supplies”. Without the Soviets on the Eastern Front, there would have been no appreciable Western Front. It’s easy to imagine the Soviets eventually prevailing over the Germans without US “supplies”, while it is impossible to imagine the Western allies beating the Germans without the Soviets on the Eastern Front. That alone settles the argument as to whom gets more of the credit.

    “Really? Should I start making a list of authors and “experts” you need to read?”

    Perhaps you should because you have done a very poor job supporting your case. For the most part, you seem to be regurgitating urban legends. In fact, I recall an Unz article from a few years ago that essentially settled this issue citing “experts”. Perhaps you should consult this website before telling others who know what they are talking about to consult “experts” whom you curiously failed to mention in support of your thesis.

    “But it was the US, and its other allies, who defeated the Japs in the sea and on the islands. The argument that it was the “threat” of Russian invasion, and not the threat of extinction as a race due to atomic attack, that caused the Nips to throw in the towel seems laughable to me, but if that’s where you want to go, go in peace.”

    It’s laughable to you because you don’t understand the issue. Essentially, the entirety of the Japanese mainland was unconquered by the Americans by 1945. It’s not surprising that the Japanese would choose to surrender to the Americans rather than have their home territory conquered by the Soviets. The West Germans did exactly that. Do you have a problem understanding obvious parallels?

    “For $800,000 you can buy a cruise missile (for instance, a Tomahawk), which is quite more high tech than an unguided torpedo.”

    It depends on the buyer. An unguided torpedo may indeed cost quite a bit of money for a primitive nation that has to buy it at a premium from an unscrupulous seller or manufacture the thing themselves (not counting the added cost of actually fielding the weapon). Additionally, torpedoes can be, depending upon circumstance, far more useful (even unguided) than a slow flying, sub-sonic Tomahawk cruise missile which can be more easily shot down (or jammed electronically) by an advanced military power like the US or even Saudi Arabia. A computer chip in a weapon doesn’t automatically make it more useful, except in the movies, which is where I suspect you and others here get your information from. Further, the US and other nations have strict arms control polices. In theory, you can buy a cruise missile for X price — if you could buy it at all, that is. But that may not be the case, in particular for nations like Iran. For example, North Korea could, in theory, spend a few billion and buy a B2 … but they can’t because we won’t sell it to them at any price.

    “It looks like you overestimated the price.”

    He didn’t. You just don’t know what you’re talking about. Many torpedo variants can cost up to millions of dollars – far more than your average Tomahawk. Many unguided variants can cost exactly what the author quoted. In fact, many torpedoes had a cost of around $800,000 even back in the 1970s, without adjusting for inflation and the addition of superior modern electronic suites. Some WW2 era unguided torpedoes cost around $100k at the time, again not factoring in substantial inflation and other costs (labor, worker health insurance, etc) between then and now.

    It’s sort of funny (and sad) to see all of these patriotarded Americans gang up on this author, each in turn making a fool of themselves in the process. Looking back from the year 2132, Chinese scholars will cite these kinds of comment threads when they discuss how the US fell: “stupid population empowered by inferior democratic system.”

    • Replies: @Rich
    , @Parisian Guy
  140. Lo says:
    @anon

    Yeah, basically all their hope comes down to Trump losing the election at this point. One, at the current trajectory, Trump will not lose the next elections. Two, this is something Democrats also agree about. It is a fact that China benefited a lot from WTO and international trade order. Yet they kept almost none of their promises. They just want to continue mooching off West by claiming they are exceptional and must be regarded as a developing nation. Honestly, this is not even just a West thing, China is far too greedy and no one likes it.

  141. anon[150] • Disclaimer says:

    “Do they know of another way to avoid the US Empire demise?”

    There were definitely ways at one time. High IQs like myself saw the writing on the wall decades ago, long before others thought China to be a serious competitor. Instead of preparing for this day, the Ruling Class demoralized its population with identity politics, killed wage growth with mass immigration, failed to invest in needed public services and infrastructure, and enriched themselves through various unwise economic looting schemes such as NAFTA and GAT. If you could put me back in the year 1980 and give me unlimited dictatorial powers, I could have geared the population to meet this challenge and prevail. It’s too late now, though. It’s baked in the cake minus human cloning or something else from science fiction.

    “That said, the miltary class and the intelligence apparatus could decide some day to play politics by their own means…”

    They already did that with Trump. Not only did the effort fail, it ruined their credibility in the process and empowered a moron to say and do whatever he wants because the public now hates and mistrusts the bureaucracy – at least until the guy loses in 2020, which I’m sure he will after betraying his working class base. The apparatus you mention has a horrible track record at that and would likely fail in the long-term even if they tried. What the US really needs is a visionary in charge of everything with near unlimited authority for about 20 years (a dangerous prospect, h0nestly, with many potential downsides). Great empires had men like this – Augustus, Peter, Charlemagne … but democracy precludes this possibility in the modern era, so I think the US is ultimately doomed. Allowing an incompetent public a veto on wise policy will never fix the issue. In fact, democracies have historically relied on deception to trick stupid populations into doing the right thing. The Athenian ruler Themistocles, for example, had to trick his population into preparing for a future Persian invasion which they foolish thought would never happen.

    Consider the current leadership of the United States: a buffoonish president, a religious maniac vice president, a near sociopath heading the NSC, a sycophantic Secretary of State, and an unqualified corporatist as Secretary of Defense. Now, consider potential future American leadership: washed up old school democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders) who won’t last another decade, some identitarian racist from the woke crowd (Kamala Harris, Stacy Abrams, Corey Booker), or a media-generated figurehead (Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg*). With that in mind, how do you think America’s prospects going forward look in relation to competition with China?

    The intelligence services and military are powerless here because the crop of candidates is worthless from both parties; this is only a short list. And both services have been corrupted with the same PC sickness that has hurt political discourse, so they are doubly disadvantaged. ** It’s the system itself along with the quality of the population which is lacking. The CIA can’t change that, but they can make it a lot worse based on their track record.

    *This guy has already been caught shamelessly exaggerating his war record.

    **TAC had a great article recently on why you shouldn’t trust the military brass: They are disproportionately sycophantic careerists who have regularly colluded with the civilian leadership to lie to public. They are useless.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  142. A very poor Chinese internet propaganda job.

    The part about military tech, at least, reads like it came from a $10/500 words content mill.

    I wonder if Ron Unz publishes Godfree Roberts articles just for a laugh.

  143. Rich says:
    @anon

    You guys have crossed the Rubicon on silliness.
    1.The Japanese feared Soviet occupation more than having their entire country annihilated by atomic bombs? Yeah, that makes sense.
    2.Try reading about the “Lend Lease Act” and American supplies to the Soviet war effort before you blather.
    3. “All the best…” Gee I thought Rommel was supposed to be one of the best, wasn’t he fighting the West? I guess the 5 million German war dead on the Western Front were all fake, right?
    4. The issue of who you give “credit” to is unimportant. It’s just a matter of opinion, and many share the opinion that had the US and the Brits not fought the Krauts in the West, Hitler would have been able to halt the Soviet advance, and then, with fast rising German missile technology and advances in synthetic fuel technology, could have turned the tide, and eventually won.

    You ain’t half as smart as you think you are.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  144. @Rich

    Stick to Hollywood.

    • Replies: @Rich
  145. @Parisian Guy

    With an estimated cost of $1.4 million each, Raytheon’s Tomahawk missile has an intermediate range of 800 to 1,553 miles and can be deployed from more than 140 U.S. Navy ships and submarines.A

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  146. @anon

    About the torpedo price:
    Some kind of torpedo could be expensive. Some other could be more effective than a Tomahawk. I agree, but these points are absolutely out of topic. Save for your pleasure to contradict myself, I can’t understand the purpose of such a digress.
    The topic was the price for a torpedo able to destroy a fishboat. I’d like you to explain me:
    – why something else than the most basic and cheapest torpedo would be needed to kill a fishboat? Should I have known that Chineses have stealth fishboat. Or hypersonic fishboat, may be?
    – how could the most basic torpedo, which is a quite simpler device than the Tomahawk, cost as much than the Tomahawk?
    – why do you need to tell, before the end of the argument, that you are the smartest one? Are you repairing something?

  147. @Godfree Roberts

    Well the price for a Tomahawk may vary largely, according to the options, the customer, and other factors …

    For instance, Wikipedia gives that data: ” In July 2014 the US approved the sale to the UK of a further 65 submarine-launched Block IV’s at a cost of US$140m including spares and support;[89] as of 2011 the Block III missiles were on British books at £1.1m and the Block IV at £0.87m including VAT.

    For another instance, last year, the last salvo launched against Syria was quoted in the medias at one $million a piece, and I’ve already seen a $800k price (although it was of course probably the less effective kind).

    In any case, the Tomahawk price was not the real matter of discussion. I just wanted to show some cost reference to demonstrate that $800k is definitely not a realistic price for a basic torpedo. The technology of such a torpedo is more than a century old!

    Furthermore, are torpedoes actually needed? A few big bullets in the helmsman post would be enough to destroy the electronics and the helms and the motor controling devices. That would render the boat unusable.
    Deprived of any kind of armor, these fishboats are nothing in case of a real war. I’ve read that the chinese commanders perfectly understand that point. The reason that they have nevertheless planned this flotilla is not for war but for other operations below the war level. Furthermore, it provides in advance for some kind of military training and spirit for the case of the chinese Navy having to massively employ.

  148. FB says: • Website
    @Iris

    Okay…let’s talk about the physical nuts and bolts of using satellites to supposedly find and track submerged submarines…

    First, let’s point out that the French pop-sci article you linked to doesn’t say what you say it does…in fact one Chinese scientist cited says this…

    ‘Asked by the South China Morning Post, a researcher at the Institute of Optics and Mechanics in Shanghai who wanted to remain anonymous spoke of “impossible mission”. The scientists involved in this project “will not be able to come out of the darkness guarded by Mother Nature, unless, of course, they are like Tom Cruise, armed with secret weapons,” he said.’

    Tom Cruise… secret weapons…IMPOSSIBLE MISSION…

    Now I already said this…and so will anybody who actually knows and understands the physics involved…like this fellow…

    But here’s the thing…I much prefer to describe WHY and HOW these physical realities actually work…rather than just accepting another scientist’s word for it…

    So let’s dive in shall we…let’s examine the basics of how satellites and submarines work…and the physics of things like radar and lidar…

    Let’s first start with the nuts and bolts of submarine warfare…nuclear powered boats can stay submerged for months and they have unlimited range, since their nuclear fuel provides energy for many years…unlike say a diesel engine which fuel quickly runs out…

    Although ‘boomers’ [ICBM carrying boats] can go anywhere in the world ocean, they have a certain way of operating…they often lurk in relatively safe ‘bastions’ where there is not likely to be enemy anti-sub activity…either aerial or surface ship…or opposition hunter-killer subs whose job in wartime would be to try to eliminate enemy boomers…

    [MORE]

    For instance, one such bastion for Russian boomers is the Sea of Okhotsk…this is a very large and deep sea that is ringed almost entirely by Russian territory…the Kuril Islands chain form the eastern boundary of the sea, stretching from the Kamchatka Peninsula to the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido…

    This is a very fortuitous bit of geography…a strategic gift from nature if you will…enemy ASW [anti-submarine warfare] aircraft which need to fly low over the water and drop sonobuyoys that listen for submarine activity have almost no chance of operating in that airspace…since the surrounding territory hosts air bases with supersonic interceptor aircraft, as well as long range surface to air missile systems [SAMs]…the same goes for surface ships that may think about conducting ASW in those waters…it’s basically a no-go zone…

    The only conceivable way into this natural bastion is by submarine…ie opposing hunter-killer subs…but here again, the geography tilts greatly in favor of the ‘home’ team…any ingress route would be through shallower waters and close to Russian territory…this means that underwater listening devices would be quite easy to place and to operate communications from that listening network to shore based command and control centers…

    This is why Russia will never cede the two southern Kuril Islands to Japan…it would severely compromise the most formidable boomer bastion on earth…[this island ‘dispute’ is largely a US project, pulling the strings of the Japanese puppet…since Japan agreed back in 1956 to formally recognize those two ‘disputed’ islands as Russian territory…in exchange for a couple of small, uninhabited islands OUTSIDE the Kuril chain, and which would have no naval or military impact…which deal Russia is still willing to honor…]

    The US really doesn’t have the luck of having such a great natural bastion…that’s just geography and the US has never really pursued this concept in its naval doctrine…think of some of the many medieval fortresses that had the good luck of being in a favorable spot…such as high ground not easily accessible from surrounding terrain or water…the Gulf of Mexico could possibly be made into something of a US bastion for boomers…but it is shallower and has a lot of open water where ingress by opposing subs cannot be so easily controlled…Russian subs routinely patrol there…

    Likewise US subs do try to penetrate the Okhotsk Sea bastion…it’s an ongoing game of cat and mouse…and it illustrates just how difficult submarines are to stop…

    The US territory of Guam and surrounding waters, where it maintains massive surface ship and airborne assets, which are effectively out of reach of Russian ASW aircraft, and to a lesser extent ASW surface ships is really the closest thing the US has to a bastion…but this ‘bastion’, due to the wide open surrounding waters is more vulnerable to penetration by nuclear powered hunter-killer subs…the upshot of all this is that the US must deploy a much bigger force structure [both naval and aviation] in order to guard its boomers from Russian hunter-killers…

    Those are facts of life dished out by geography…

    Reportedly, the Chinese People’s Liberation Navy is working on implementing the bastion concept…

    Then there is the arctic which still has year round ice cover over vast areas…[all the hair on fire ice melting propaganda notwithstanding]…now a nuclear sub lurking under the ice cap is obviously not detectable from the air or from orbit…even a layman should understand that, since no manner of electromagnetic radiation [either in the radio wave spectrum or the light spectrum can possibly penetrate a solid…they simply bounce off…so neither radar nor the closely related lidar is of any use here…]

    And of course there can be no surface ships present on the ice cap, except for icebreakers…which the US doesn’t have, and which Russia does have [including a fleet of massive nuclear-powered ships]…

    Likewise sonar listening devices somehow planted on the sea floor are not really much help…since they need electrical power to operate…and where does that come from…?

    But here is where the Russians have come up with an incredible technological solution [that is assumed to be in the early stages of implementation]…it’s a network of sea floor listening stations that are powered by miniature nuclear power plants…called Hamony…

    Now the nodes of this network, the nuclear-powered listening stations [called ATGU, for Automated installation nuclear turbine generator] which are a cylinder of about 45 ft long and 25 ft diameter, will need to be placed on the arctic sea bed, which is up to 4000 meters deep…how do you do that…?

    The answer is another incredible technical solution that involves a deep-diving, manned mini-submarine that is actually not so small [over 200 ft length…about 1,000 tons displacement…nuclear powered and carrying a complement of 25 crew, all officers]… this mini-submarine will in turn be carried by a mother-ship, which is among the world’s biggest submarines…the Belgorod…which is a converted Oscar 2 class cruise missile sub…

    More information on the Belgorod available here…and here…

    And the Losharik mini-submarine that it carries, and which places the ATGUs on the sea floor…here…and here…

    The Losharik has already demonstrated operating depth of 2,500 meters…and its diving depth is thought to be perhaps up to 5 km…due to its unique spherical elements, which can withstand the tremendous water pressure at those depths…

    The US has for decades had an underwater listening network spanning parts of the global ocean [but not the arctic]…called SOSUS…but its underwater sensors are located mostly close to shore in order to run on underwater power cables…this means it is of limited use to detect subs…only if they come close enough to your shores…

    For instance the SOSUS system was first deployed in the 1950s to detect Soviet subs crossing the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap [GIUK]…but it has long been irrelevant as the range of submarine-launched ICBMs increased…it’s no longer necessary for any Russian or US boomer to get close to enemy territory…Russian subs can launch from the Sea of Okhotsk bastion and hit any spot in the US within 30 minutes…the converse is also true for US boomers launching from their own well guarded Guam ‘bastion’ or the arctic, or anywhere else in the world ocean…the range of current SLBMs is that great…

    China has a similar underwater listening system called Underwater Great Wall, located in the South China Sea…and powered by cables running to the mainland, or perhaps some of the islands [an area that the US seeks to contest…and here is a good reason why]…additionally, China has reportedly placed listening devices within range of Guam…these have been reportedly placed on the deepest part of the Pacific…the Mariana Trench [over 10 km deep]…since there are no nearby shore locations friendly to China, the sensors are powered by battery-powered buoys floating on the ocean surface…with a long connecting cable to the sensors below…

    It should be obvious that these types of ‘extension cord’ networks…including SOSUS…are vulnerable to being cut by an opposing nation that possesses the technical means to do so…the only candidate for this kind of job is the Russian Losharik deep-diving nuclear-powered submarine…carried by the nuclear-powered Belgorod mothership…this technology could also cut other undersea cables…including the fiber optic internet cables that have been placed across the oceans in recent years…

    This is why the US has developed an alternative method…listening stations towed by surface ships called Surveillance Towed Array Sensor System [SURTASS]…

    Now none of these underwater, sound-based surveillance systems actually constitute some kind of magic bullet…even the Russian Harmony system, which is by far the most technologically ambitious…and certainly the most effective…the reason comes down to what do you do after you have located an enemy submarine…it’s one thing to know where it is, and a whole other matter to do something about it…

    In a time of war, can you actually get a hunter-killer sub to intercept the boomer and take it out with a torpedo…?

    HIGHLY UNLIKELY…

    Same goes for surface ships armed with anti-submarine missiles…an aircraft armed with antisub missiles might have a chance…but it still might be hours of flight time away…

    Those are the cold hard facts of nuclear subs…they are pretty much IMPOSSIBLE to take out…if they decide to fire their massive ICBM salvos [a single US or Russian boomer could flatten most of the opponent’s major population centers]…between them Russia and the US possess over 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons…and the submarine launched leg of their respective nuclear triads is the most deadly and least vulnerable…

    Like I said before about advanced jet engines…these kinds of technologies take TIME to develop…China still has a ways to go to ‘join the club’ and become a player in strategic submarine warfare…

    So really the idea of some goofy lidar satellite is completely childish…even if it could work…which is physically impossible…as I will describe in my next post when we talk about satellites, radar and lidar…

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  149. @Rich

    “Lend Lease Act”

    I suggest that the “Godwin Point” should be declared obsolete and useless in the Unz Review comments.

    Then, that rule of Godwin should be replaced by the “Lend Lease Act rule”, or the rule of “the many american trucks without which the soviets would have lost against the nazis”.
    This “Lend Lease Act” rule, you guessed it: Whatever the initial topic of discussion in the Unz Review, if the discussion goes for enough time, it will be said that, without that US help, the rest of the world would have forever been submitted to the nazis.

    The real underlying questions, never said as if they were subject to a kind of Freudian repression, are these ones:
    -Did the USA, at least one time in History, saved the human race of pure evil and would they therefore deserve everlasting acknowledgment?
    -Or did they not? Therefore, considering the whole of its deeds, nothing could save the USA to be condamned as an other incarnation of pure evil, whose pending deletion from contemporary History is only a long deserved acomplishment of divine/metaphysical justice.

    Here, it was a paper from Robert Godfree, telling as he usually does, how China is such a great, and powerful, and benevolent country. When doing that, he implicitly says how the USA, not actually deserving that same reputation and world statute, is bound to deletion.
    From past observations, I’m confident I will again observe other instances of that “Lend Lease Act rule”. It will be interesting to check in these other cases the concomitance of an underlying question about the deletion of the USA.

    • Replies: @Rich
  150. Rich says:
    @Parisian Guy

    I would suggest you are ignorant of the supplies given to the Soviets by the Americans.
    1. 17,500,00 tons worth of goods.
    2. $11 Billion in goods.
    3. 400,000 Jeeps and trucks.
    4. 12,00 armored vehicles which included 7,00 tanks.
    5. 11,400 aircraft.
    6. 1,75 million tons of food.
    7. 2,670,371 tons of petroleum products.
    8. 428,00 trucks.
    9. 1900 steam locomotives.
    Among other shipments. The Soviets were unable to produce enough of these supplies to keep up their fight with the Germans. Are you guys really unable to comprehend this stuff? Can it possibly be over your heads? Imagine if, on the other hand, the Americans had been supplying the Germans with these goods, if the Germans didn’t have a second front and the Soviets were required to produce these products on their own, are you really incapable of seeing that the war might have ended differently? Really?
    As if “Godwin” applies here, more like “Cipolla’s laws” in reference to how the jealousy and hatred you pinkos feel towards America makes you blind to reality.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  151. Rich says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    I prefer Hollyrock with the greats Stony Curtus, Carey Granite and Ann Margrock, but you stick to old copies of Pravda and Mao’s red book, they seem about your speed.

  152. Anonymous[425] • Disclaimer says:

    Whenever I read comments like these that disparage, belittle and vilify China and Asians in general, I’m reminded how much white Americans have in common with the Jew and that their dysfunctional symbiosis is not mere coincidence.

  153. @FB

    Hi FB.

    I do also have some knowledge or professionnal experience in data processing and electronics. I would not bet my life that these projects will be sucessfull. I understand how difficult they are , thus my guess is that more than half of them will fail. But none of them can be judged from start as bound to fail, they all looks possible.

    About the detection with a lidar: When that chinese lidar specialist tells it’s “mission impossible” to see under 500 meters, that is only the judgement of one researcher who’s not working on that challenge. How does he know there could not be other way than those he’s used to?
    Also, I remember having read frome the same kind of french media another paper about the use of image processing which permitted to partly compensate for the scarcity and dispersion of photons.

    There is one project I’m competent enough to be sure that from a theorical point of view, it must obviously work. That is the detection by means of big data processing of the sea surface waves. The only doubt I can have are very practical: how many datas are needed to discriminate the signal from the noise? Therefore, what are the sizes and costs of the needed tranducers and computers? Which aerial or spacial vehicle could carry them? There are no other serious problems, and there is no technological breakthrough to be made. I would not be so much surprised if after the first hours of WW3, we discovered that the DARPA already had, since a long time, such a working system when we discussed it in June 2019.

    By the ways, thanks for this text about submarines. It’s quite informative and convincing about the impossibility of detection of ICBM submarines when they are in their bastion. On the other hand, next WW is about who will control the maritime road of world trade. That is, the submarine which are to be detected are not the ICBM launcher, actually they are those who could attack the merchant and military navy. These submarines have to go everywhere instead of safely stay in their bastion for escaping detection.

    • Replies: @FB
  154. Precisely.

    On a related note:

    “The democratic and constitutional Athenian city-state—pivotal to the growth of the Western world—may be another adaptation. From the Bronze Age onward, observes Glenn Markoe, “true city-states” functioned in Phoenicia. These autonomous, monarchical city-states with their councils of elders and peoples’ assemblies are characterized as proto-democratic. With regard to Greece, preceding Athens, Sparta had a constitution. Aristotle, in his analysis of the Spartan and Carthaginian (Punic) constitutions, points to similarities: councils and popular assemblies. Thus, Simon Hornblower, Robert Drewes, and others assume that the Spartan system followed a Phoenician prototype.”

    https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2047&context=ccr

  155. @Rich

    So, you just don’t understand that the importance and the effectiveness of the US aid to stalin armies is a recurring digression on the Unz Review. Every possible arguments has already been said several times, long time ago. I don’t dare of your datas and I’ve not read them. The last time I cared to verify those send by someone with the same agenda than you, it was all wrong; I only had lost my time for nothing.

    You just ignores that what you believes is an important amount is, in truth, something like 10% of what was send to UK, for instance. And you also ignore that several other countries received quite more than the USSR. Considering that most of the war against the Reich have been realized by these armies of the USSR, considering that the American territory was perfectly safe and isolated from the battles and destructions, you should have understood that the real amont of the US help to Russia is not something to be proud. It is not something which deserves recognition or gratitude. It is actually something whom Americans should feel shameful. That is the reality that Americans are unwilling to admit.
    The want of some Americans to glorify what was, in truth, nothing more than a little compensation from Roosevelt to Stalin, for having betrayed its promise to intervene sooner in Europe, is plainly boring.
    The only interesting questions are for me: Why does this canard always came back in apparently irrelevant discussions on the Unz review? Why do some Americans need to continue to believe and convince anybody of this bullshit, after it had been proved false?

    That was the subject of my post. Feel free to discuss about it.

    Here is my reality:
    The USA saved nobody. The Europe was torn by its biggest civil war. The USA comfortably waited until every country was feeble and then came to finish the destruction (what about Dresden or Hamburg? Or, for my country, the many French cities destroyed by the courageous Americans aviators, always happy to kill innocent civilians in bombing them? Are these nazi crimes? No, that’s crimes from Americans! Don’t you understand someday there could be a Nuremberg, for one century of war crimes? US will be at the place of the culprit, and almost the entirety of the world nations will be the accusers? Yes, you do). Then, the USA conquered and colonized Europe.
    That was planified from the beginning. It was the strategy of a vulture. It was a sucessful one, but a shameful one. That’s why many bullshits are needed to hide the ugly truth of the American ascent to world dominion. That’s why Nuremberg was needed to make believe the real criminals were not the Americans but the Germans. That’s why the Lend Lease Act bullshit is peddled by some Americans. They cannot recognize how their country is ugly and criminal.
    And that is also what makes Ron Unz an exceptionnal one, for He is looking firstly for the truth, whatever it is.

    • Agree: Biff, FB
    • Replies: @Rich
  156. @anon

    To anon#150.
    Too bad I did not see at first that you were responding to me. It’s now too late for me for producing a very long answer. I’m French, and writing english is not fast and easy when my brain needs some rest.
    Nevertheles, it’s ok to be short, because basically we agree on almost anything point.

    Most important, I got to the same conclusion than yours: only some kind of dictatorship could save the USA at this stage. Nothing effective could come from the American democratic process. That was the real meaning of my saying “That said, the miltary class and the intelligence apparatus could decide some day to play politics by their own means…”.

    They are the only ones who are technically able to impose the dictatorship. The problem will be that they will mainly want the continuation of the empire (because that’s their mission). Thus, from my french point of view, such a solution could not be wished.

    And yes, I know that TAC paper you referenced. Well, it looks there is no issue.
    On the other hand:
    -you don’t need a big number of courageous people for dictaorship
    -may be the obstacle is just that USA has still not went low enough. History seems to tell us that when most of the country had been in abnormal conditions of life for ten years, it is ready for a real change. Not a very likeable example, but Germans had to suffer misery for a big part of the people under the Weimar republic, before they elected a dictator (which did not come from the intelligence apparatus). Likewise, the Russians were bound to become a third world nation, when, after ten years of decadence, their intelligence apparatus produced a light dictator whose project was quite reasonnably to adress the real need, that is to practically save the country, without dreaming anymore of Empire.

  157. Rich says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Interesting, I’ve never come across the Lend Lease Act being mentioned on any comments here, but I have come across pinkos like you disparaging the US and the Brits and the valiant men who took on the mighty German War Machine in the West. Your refusal to recognize that without a second front, without US aid to the Soviets, a German-Soviet War very probably would have ended differently shows either ignorance or hatred.
    Nuremberg would have ended differently if not for the vicious Soviets and their need to seek vengeance against the Germans. You Frogs did have the misfortune of being between the US, Britain and Berlin, but so was Italy and I don’t hear the Italians, or most true Frenchmen for that matter, whining like you. And don’t forget, de Gaulle and his boys, as well as the French Resistance were more than willing to participate and assist the Americans and Brits in the battle against the Germans. Look at how the poor Poles and other Eastern Euros had to suffer under Communism for fifty years, at least you guys avoided that.
    Obviously you are unable to step back and see the war as it was actually fought, you are unable to understand the difficulty involved in fighting a two front war, and how helpful it is to have a country manufacturing and supplying your army with supplies actually is. At least by putting your ignorance on display, you’ve discredited your over-the-top anti-American bias, and confirmed your ignorance of martial matters.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Parisian Guy
  158. Anonymous[662] • Disclaimer says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    I tried to learn it. I was scared off by the amount of word parts I had to memorized.

    What are word parts? Radicals? There’s less than 300 of them and considering the average American child recognises something like 2,000 corporate logos, it’s nothing to be afraid of.

  159. FB says: • Website
    @Parisian Guy

    Thanks for your comment…the part about using data processing to study surface waves is a known technique…it was discovered by the Russians during the time they were using the RORSAT radar satellites…

    They found that the radar [under clear atmospheric conditions] could pick up a signature wake on the surface that indicated the presence of a submarine below…but ONLY if the submarine was shallow enough and moving fast enough to leave a wake…

    That is why this ‘Project Guanlan’ mentioned here in this article also uses radar…it is used to first find the likely location of a sub…then the lidar [using waves in the visible light spectrum] homes in on that area…

    But there are huge practical challenges…not least is the way in which satellites actually fly…which I will explain that part next…we have to have a full contextual picture before we can hope to understand the significance of this kind of project to locate submarines…

    As for DARPA…well…I don’t share your optimism…I have been working in aerospace for more than three decades and have seen from the inside the US sliding downhill…there are still some competent engineers and scientists…but the system does not work…it’s badly broken…there will be no progress in aerospace from the US going forward…I know plenty of colleagues who are working in Russia [often as consultants] because that’s where the action is…others have moved to civil aviation etc…

    I noticed your earlier comment about extremely low frequency [ELF] communications with subs and I will go into a little more detail on that…

  160. FB says: • Website
    @Rich

    Interesting, I’ve never come across the Lend Lease Act being mentioned on any comments here…

    Interesting…maybe you would know a bit more if you spent less time in your usual stall in the men’s washroom at the local bus depot…asking guys if they have the ‘time’…?

    As Parisian Guy pointed out, the Lend Lease bullshit is constantly touted here by illiterate ignoramuses like yourself…

    IF not for lend lease surely the Russians would have lost, right…?

    And if ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ were candies and nuts…oh what a Christmas it would be…

    Here the facts about Lend Lease…

    Britain got THREE times as much as the Russians…

    Notice also the timeline of Lend Lease deliveries to Russia…

    Virtually diddly squat arrived before 1943…by which time the Germans were already defeated and in full RETREAT…

    After Stalingrad the whole world celebrated…Britain especially…

    The news of the battle echoed round the world, with many people now believing that Hitler’s defeat was inevitable.[122] The Turkish Consul in Moscow predicted that “the lands which the Germans have destined for their living space will become their dying space”.[123] Britain’s conservative The Daily Telegraph proclaimed that the victory had saved European civilisation.

    One year before D-day [which involved a mere 150,000 allied soldiers…the Battle of Kursk [ten times bigger than the Battle of the Bulge, the biggest battle on the western front] already sealed Germany’s fate…

    Yet compared with the battles of Guadalcanal, Midway, D-Day, Arnhem, and the Bulge, the great clash at Kursk is very little known in the West and hailed only by aficionados, despite its dwarfing each of those other battles in size and indeed in importance.

    The war was won on the Eastern Front…even Wikipedia has to acknowledge that…

    The battles on the Eastern Front of the Second World War constituted the largest military confrontation in history…The Eastern Front was decisive in determining the outcome in the European theatre of operations in World War II, eventually serving as the main reason for the defeat of Nazi Germany and the Axis nations.

    Indeed…90 percent of Germany’s losses in men and materiel were on the Eastern Front…

    Btw Gaylord…a couple of weeks ago you told us here how while you served in the army and traveled to various countries people ‘loved’ you for your ‘good looks’…later you subtly propositioned another commenter here by asking him if he had a ‘crush’ on you…

    Like I said…maybe you should consider sticking to your trawling in men’s washrooms…

    • Troll: Rich
    • Replies: @Rich
  161. Rich says:
    @FB

    You are really obsessed with me, like that blonde chick in the movie with Michael Douglas. Hope I don’t find a dead rabbit in my kitchen. I’m starting to wonder if you’re a young kid with your cartoons and lack of reading comprehension. But at least you did a good job showing how the US gave over 17 million tons of supplies to the Soviets. I already pointed that out, but good for you

    • Replies: @FB
  162. FB says: • Website
    @Rich

    You are really obsessed with me, like that blonde chick…

    Sorry Gaylord…can’t help you with your homo fantasies…I’m a straight man…but good luck in your public washroom encounters…I’m sure you’ll eventually meet the man of your dreams…LOL

    • Replies: @Rich
  163. @Rich

    As I told you, I’m not interested in another discussion against the Lend Lease bullshit. I just want to give you a little bit, so that you’ll be happy enough to agree to not pursue that argument.

    Yes, you’re right about one point: It was the Stalin prosecutor, the one who directed the Moscow trial, who was responsible, for the russian side, for the way the Nuremberg trial went. We all know about Katyn. I don’t have enough knowledge of Nuremberg to tell if Russians or Americans were the most dishonnest , and you may be correct when believing that it was the Russians. Nevertheless, my guess is that your believing is more the result of your want than the result of an unpartisan analysis. Well, that’s OK, you may be right nevertheless.

    On the other hand, that’s very interesting that you sudainly needs to tell that US saved West Europe from communism. A lot could be said about that assertion. I will spare all, save for one point which is absolutely true: the US needed firstly to save themselves from the birth of a too powerful communist Eurasia, from Lisbon to Vladivostok. It was for them a life/death matter.

    The reason that’s interesting that you needed to say “US saved Europe from communism”, is that you perfectly illustrated and confirmed my explanation of the recurrence of the bullshit. I told you that explanation from the start, in my first comment (#151) to you. Here it is:

    “The real underlying questions, never said as if they were subject to a kind of Freudian repression, are these ones:
    Did the USA, at least one time in History, saved the human race of pure evil and would they therefore deserve everlasting acknowledgment?
    -Or did they not? Therefore, considering the whole of its deeds, nothing could save the USA to be condamned as an other incarnation of pure evil, whose pending deletion from contemporary History is only a long deserved acomplishment of divine/metaphysical justice.”

    Well, may be you only needed your country to be the Land of The Courageous and the savior of the world, because it makes you feeling proud. Do you believe that the ugliness or the virtue of your country could say something about yourself? How could it be?

    • Replies: @Biff
    , @Sam J.
  164. @FB

    Woh, I did not knew about the russian RorSat. It was a long time ago. Do you have a more accurate idea about the year when they tried data processing?

    I was in computer science, image processing & analysis, sometime in my professionnal life. I can tell you that in the end of the eighties, the computers had not enough power for real-time analysis of pictures, save for the most basic processing, such as a low pass filter, or a thresholding. It could be useful (especialy when you needed to impress some kind of grant provider), but it could never be the almost magical device which render pictures of what was absolutely undetectable by plain human eyes or analogic electronics. For doing that, the computers of today are required. Here are my reasons to think so:

    My best guess about the pressure wave radiating from the nose of a moving submarine, is that when the submarine goes deeper, the surface wave will proportionately increase its wavelength and decrease its height (amplitude). Then, nothing can be detected by human eyeballs, and the steepness of such wave is so little that no specific radar echo can be seen.
    On the other hand, I believe that such a wave does not lost its energy easily. The signal is still here, inscribed in the shape of the surface, even if its vertical amplitude is smaller than most of the nature-made sea waves which are concurrently moving the water surface. This problem has a remedy if you can very accurately know the sea surface altitude in every location above the submarine. Well, you have a strong technical background, therefore I guess you knows that there is no bad signal/noise ratio that you cannot remedy to, provided you can add up a lot of data.

    Of course the amount of needed computing power could be enormous, because in order to avail enough datas, it probably will be required to process more than one map of the sea surface altitude. A time serie of such pictures will be used. In that case, brute summation of pictures will not be effective because the location of the surface wave is differing from one picture to the next. You needs to geometricaly translate each picture, so that all putative submarine surface wave are vertically aligned in the same location in the result 3D matrix. It’s easy to do, if you knows the location and the course of the sub. Since these are unknowns, the computers will test a zillion hypothesis regarding the course and location of the sub. That is several order of magnitude above what the soviet computers could do at the time. But I believe it’s possible today.
    Efficient algorithms can be created by adapting well proven ones.

    • Replies: @FB
    , @Sam J.
  165. Rich says:
    @FB

    Gaylord? You’ve got to be kidding me. Haven’t heard that expression since 3rd grade. I’d be surprised if you aren’t just a confused adolescent, unsure of your sexuality but very good at cutting and pasting. If you’re a grown man writing this stuff, you really should seek help. Gaylord? Crazy.

    • Replies: @FB
  166. @FB

    Oh I forgot about DARPA. We misunderstood. I don’t have any optimism on any american aeronautic project. I have no opinion at all, because I’m not learned enough. I only know basic laws of physics, a bit of fluid mechanics, basic principle of project planning, some basic use of redundancy for safety. But the validity of these principle is restricted to my world, and it does not extend inside the American world. That’s why I have absolutely no opinion, especially not about the Pentagon’s Boeing performance, the 787 saga, the J35 features or the 737MAX nonconformism.

    More seriously, even if the american industry has not produced any revolutionnary breakthrough in computers or microelectronics since some duration, it is still at the top level in that field. So, about the sea surface detection, I believe DARPA has the ability to make the machine for the data harvesting and processing or to employ those who can do it.

  167. FB says: • Website
    @Parisian Guy

    Your comments about the fluid dynamics going on at the surface are interesting…but here is the thing with computational fluid dynamics[CFD]…yes it requires lots of computing power…but the results are not reliable even today…

    Here we have the GIGO principle at work…garbage in, garbage out…let me explain a little…fluid mechanics is incredibly complex…turbulent fluid flow remains one of the great unsolved problems in physics…no theoretical framework has ever been devised…Werner Heisenberg famously quipped…

    When I meet God I will ask him two questions…why relativity, and why turbulence…?…I really think he will have an answer for the first…

    Some while back I had a chance to see firsthand some cutting edge work [at the time] on CFD at Nasa Ames…there was great hope back then that ‘soon’ we would be solving a lot of aerodynamic problems on the computer…but those hopes never were fulfilled…today CFD modeling can still be wildly inaccurate…it depends on how good you are with this tool…and it is just one additional tool to the two we have had for a hundred years…analytical solutions [math]…and the wind tunnel…at best CFD can maybe save you some effort in the tunnel…but it’s not a replacement even for the slide rule LOL…

    Here’s a little more granularity on the subject…nearly 200 years ago, two powerful minds decided to wrestle with a big physical problem…and formulated a comprehensive theoretical framework for viscous fluid flow…Claude-Louis Navier and George Gabriel Stokes…

    The Navier Stokes equations can, in principle, solve any three dimensional fluid flow problem [excluding turbulent flow]…but these partial differential equations cannot be solved in closed form [ie analytically]…except for a couple of very simple cases…

    Now comes the powerful computers and CFD…they can’t solve these PDEs either of course…but they can approximate the solution by means of breaking up the problem into a million tiny pieces…each piece being a connecting node on a fluid flow field…the whole thing being like net or ‘mesh’ and using a technique known as finite element [FE]…

    So the computer solves simple algebraic equations at each node or intersection of this mesh…the bigger your computer, the bigger and finer you can make your mesh, and the computer will click away solving a gazillion little mickey mouse algebra problems…and what comes out is either a pretty good APPROXIMATE solution or a piece of garbage…often the latter…probably because we don’t seem to grow men like Navier and Stokes anymore…

    The theory and the equations are perfectly good of course…but it does no good if you do not construct your mesh [the mathematical model] properly…

    Incidentally, despite its application in so many fields of modern engineering…the N-V equations are also of great interest to pure mathematicians…and there is a Clay Prize for the so called ‘Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem’…

    As for Rorsat…the thing to notice here is the miniature nuclear power plants…radar takes a lot of electrical power…especially from a height of 500 km…the strength of radar returns decreases by the fourth power of the distance…[inverse square law in both directions]…

    So that is just one more reality about radar satellites…[they are flying relatively low where there is still a tiny amount of atmospheric drag, so deploying solar panels would quickly degrade their orbit]…

    I will get into more details on the rest of this topic…as promised…thanks for your feedback on computing…not my strong suit to be sure…but this kind of ambitious project obviously requires a close multi-disciplinary approach…

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  168. FB says: • Website
    @Rich

    …a confused adolescent, unsure of your sexuality…

    Questioning your sexuality…?

    Only homos say that…BINGO

    Why don’t you step on out of that closet son…take a load off…remember your gay ‘pride’…

  169. Biff says:
    @Parisian Guy

    You might as well join Clint Eastwood in arguing with the empty chair that is Rich.

  170. @SteveK9

    Fair point. While that’s happening, there will be serious and increasing damage to our economy, medical system, and military.

  171. Sam J. says:
    @Parisian Guy

    “…“The real underlying questions, never said as if they were subject to a kind of Freudian repression, are these ones:
    –Did the USA, at least one time in History, saved the human race of pure evil and would they therefore deserve everlasting acknowledgment?
    -Or did they not?…”

    You are of course, and you know it, propping up a straw man and then knocking him down. Without US aid and joining the fight in WWII it’s likely that Russia would have fell and all of Europe also. Without England, Russia and everyone else fighting American aid and help would have been futile. So there is no yes/no America evil/not evil.

    An example if people are playing tug of rope and one extra person is added to one side allowing them to win then you can’t say the added person is the only reason they won but you can say that they would not have won without the extra person. The US efforts in WWII is the same so your whole go/no go is stupid. It’s not that type situation.

    To say that the US played no part or “should be embarrassed???” is stupidity and all you are doing is trolling.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  172. Sam J. says:
    @Parisian Guy

    I bet you could put a cowling on top of the sub angled like a F-117 to spread the waves out so that there is no localization making it super difficult to detect an already extremely difficult sub detection method.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  173. TT says:
    @Priss Factor

    Have you ever talk to pigs, cows, lamb, chicken, turkey & fishes that you eat?

    Its known pigs are more intelligent animals than dogs, but too bad you just love bacon, nothing else matter to you. You even use monkeys & chimpanzees for cruel experiment. How humane?

    To China & Taiwan people, dog meats is food like pork for proteins since thousands yrs ago, nothing else. Its also an ancient belief that dog & cat meat has tonic purpose to defend against winter cold.

    Do you know Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, HK, Macau, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Nagaland, part of India, Nepal, Africa, Polynesia, Mexico, Indonesia, the Arctic and Antarctic and two canton in Switzerland still eating dogs culturally? But you will be ok as long its not China.

    https://www.urdogs.com/there-are-11-countries-which-eat-dogs-one-of-them-is-european/amp

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39577557/the-countries-where-people-still-eat-cats-and-dogs-for-dinner

    Europeans were eating & selling dog meats in mkt up to 1950’s until they found its not worth while as they needed dogs to do work like guarding.

    Also much due to hypocrisy, let BBC explained why you crave to roast a cute lamb while loathe at dog eating:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/33223450/why-the-uk-doesnt-eat-dog-meat-but-people-in-china-do

    In US, Hawaii, Canada, people eat cats & dogs too. In Switzerland Alpine cats & dogs are legal delicacy. So are French Polynesia.
    Its a $2B business in Korea anyway.
    https://www.thedailymeal.com/travel/9-countries-eat-cats-and-dogs-slideshow/slide-8

    And sharkfins & its meats are traditional great delicacy of Asians like any fish. Why make a silly scene about it, if you aren’t going vegan?

    So don’t be so hypocrite when the West are butchering millions of smarter pigs & cows, trawling the oceans killing sharks & dolphins they don’t consume. Oh the West even skin the seal alive to beautify their women. How humane.

    Did anyone even mention how USNato slaughtering millions of innocence human beings they don’t consume since founded, still massacre in Iraq, Afghan, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, …while we type. Yet their people don’t feel disgust. How humane.

  174. TT says:
    @joeshittheragman

    You called Chinese with slur chink but you got nothing against them? What kind of idiot are you pretending to be?

    And you are using(copying) all the ancient chinese inventions without slightest gratitude but bragging on your superiority. Where did you get your paper & printing of books, gunpowder and compass?

    You might still eating raw meat with your hands and wrapping in animal skins if not of Chinese inventions.

    List of long Chinese inventions: wake up dude.
    https://m.ranker.com/list/list-of-chinese-inventions/wayne-szalinski?ref=collections_btm&l=1073158&collectionId=848&li_source=LI&li_medium=mobile-bottom-collection

    Are you sure this 5,000yrs civilization Chinese has no original idea, when your ancestors were still barbarian vikings before latched on steam engine industrialization just a few hundred yrs ago, while China was suppressed by Manchuria invaders (Qing Dynasty) and devastated by West invasion?

    Its so voluminous, Joseph Needham, took years to compile Chinese inventions.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_Civilisation_in_China

    Even in US, many Chinese performed outstandingly.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_Americans

    Who is father of US rocket sciences? China Qian Xuesheng, oh you don’t even know it, how smart you merican nordic. Here are some famous Chinese scientists, get yourself educated.
    https://m.ranker.com/list/famous-scientists-from-china/reference?ref=collections_btm&l=532637&collectionId=848&li_source=LI&li_medium=mobile-bottom-collection

    Who actually lead to discovery of Neutron & neutrino? Wang Ganchang, yet you don’t know.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Ganchang

    Ever heard of Chien-Shiung Wu “the First Lady of Physics”, “the Chinese Madame Curie”, and the “Queen of Nuclear Research”. The lady who get Manhattan project succeed. Oh man, you know nothing yet you make bold comment Chinese is not innovative, only can copy & improve. How silly.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chien-Shiung_Wu

    Heard of Shoucheng Zhang (Chinese: 张首晟; He was a Chinese-American physicist who was the JG Jackson and CJ Wood professor of physics at Stanford University. He was a condensed matter theorist known for his work on topological insulators, the quantum Hall effect, the quantum spin Hall effect, spintronics, and high-temperature superconductivity. According to the National Academy of Science:[1]He discovered a new state of matter called topological insulator in which electrons can conduct along the edge without dissipation, enabling a new generation of electronic devices with much lower power consumption.

    But he was murdered by CIA for fear of helping China to lead in semiconductor, on the same day when Huawei CFO was kidnapped in Canada on order of US to blackmail Huawei on 5G, while all the state of arts semiconductor equipments to be delivered to China from Holland were burned down. How coincidence. When US Nordic can’t compete in innovation, they know how to do smartly.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoucheng_Zhang

    Now who is leading in 5G, that US & Nordic failed to innovate & compete? How about Supercomputer, Quantum, mankind 1st exploring of lunar dark side, shaftless motor propulsion, only technology in megaton H-bomb that can store long time, rare earth refinery, salt water rice, ….long list of innovations, dude. Even your e-cigarette is Chinese invention.

    What a wonky knowing no boundary of shame to brag your American/Nordic smartness without slightest decency to get basic education.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  175. TT says:
    @Honor is Loyalty

    I stun them all the time, even though I am just trying to walk around these insect-like people. No sinister intentions, they just take absolutely zero notice of their vicinity.

    You call Chinese ethnic insect like, dumb race, but no sinister intention?

    Was that your subpar low ranking IQ 98 that make you behave unknowingly stupid yet falsely believe you are a smart ass?
    https://brainstats.com/average-iq-by-country.html

    Or you simply lack comprehension skill as Pisa test has proven?
    https://www.tes.com/news/pisa-glance-global-education-rankings-science-maths-and-reading?amp=

    • Replies: @Honor is Loyalty
  176. TT says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I was recently told by a PRC PhD in US, that he didn’t return to China was because during tyranny Jiang Zheming ruling, Chinese who travelled overseas to study was strip of citizenship. So although he got an overseas scholarship to study and keen to return, he had to apply for a green card.

    This is a reversal of Deng XP idea in state sponsoring China (2nd grade) best brains to overseas study. When asked won’t China afraid of losing their best, Deng explained if 30% return to serve its already worthwhile. He himself studied in France under similar program.

    Subsequently, Jiang ZM reversed his policy again, but already million of these scholars lost their citizenship, only able to return as tourist but not allowed to work in China. Prez Xi should have remedied this mistake.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  177. @TT

    Well, I do not want to take a stand on this argument.

    It turns out that I got an idea that could explain why dog ​​eating is a taboo in the West. I believe that the problem does not concern the smartness of the dog, but his almost unique ability to build a relationship with a human being, to the point that it is common for the owner of the dog to consider it as if he was another person.

    And conversely, there are cats . They do not have such an ability, and it is less taboo to eat them. The reason I believe that is because when eating a cooked rabbit in France, the common old joke was to ask if it was a cat. As if cat eating was a gloomy reality that sometimes happened.

    • Replies: @TT
  178. TT says:
    @Anon

    And the West loveto give these crminals & corrupted people asylums, refusing to extradite them back for law enforcement knowingly, wth a beautiful reason, humam rts.

  179. @TT

    OK, chinese smartness had been underestimated by Americans, especially since the beginning of the Deng Xiao Ping era. Americans did not want to think that sometimes in the future they will have to give the world dominion scepter to China; this had been obvious since a very long time. May be you remembers those economists who explained, during the nineties, that the asian economic growth was not a real one, and so, and so…

    On the other side, it looks you are falling in the converse error.

    Are you unconsciously believing that since Americans actually have many wrong ideas about China, your own ideas on China could not be wrong, so that you don’t need to check the seriousness of your believing?
    For instance, how can you believe this: “Who is father of US rocket sciences?” Everybody knows it was a German, Herr Von Braun, who previously created the world first working rocket, the famous V2 which flied from Peenemûnde to the british land during the last years of WW2.

    About the Shoucheng Zhang death: How can you be certain it is not a suicide? Of course the concommitance with the Huawei heir arrest is questionning, to the point that your hypothesis is a serious one. But we can’t know with certainty.
    We don’t really know what would be the motivation, “Topological insulator”, Are you an expert in electronics to the point that you really knows that this finding has strategic worthiness? Or do you just repeat what you read from someone you don’t know?
    It also had been said that he planned to work for/with Huawei, but we are still waiting for a serious validation of that say.

    • Replies: @TT
    , @TT
  180. @TT

    I was recently told by a PRC PhD in US, that he didn’t return to China was because during tyranny Jiang Zheming ruling, Chinese who travelled overseas to study was strip of citizenship.

    You were told a ridiculous lie.
    No Chinese studying abroad ever lost its citizenship for this only motive.

    Lost of citizenship happened for Chinese abroad when acquiring another citizenship. Nothing more.

    Here is an almost exhaustive historic study of the government policy concerning the Chinese abroad:
    https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/AV11_ENG.pdf

    On Google, this keyword set: knowledge disapora return China will give you more.

    • Replies: @TT
  181. @Sam J.

    I bet you could put a cowling on top of the sub

    Sure. You won your bet. I already made the test, comparing on one side my yellow submarine which I fitted with a cowling, and on the other side my pink submarine (without cowling) as a reference.

    Here are my findings:
    – the cowling destroy the surface wave, but not much, unless I make the cowling very large, with a convoluted shape.
    – that effective cowling generates so much turbulence that:
    -1 instead of a surface wave to be detected, there is a powerful turbulence at the surface which makes detection an easier task
    -2 that turbulence consumes so much energy that my yellow submarine lost 60% of its cruising speed. This loss can also be explained in part by the drag of the extra large fins that were needed to balance the dynamic lift of the cowl.

    Do you have another original idea that I could test on my pair of submarines?

    I imagine it is possible to reduce the surface wave to a certain extent, but you need a lot more work than installing a cowling; You must completely redraw the shape of the hull. Then, when and if you got something effectively stealth, you have to scrape your present submarines.

  182. @Sam J.

    Oviously there is no use for myself repeating the datas. FB did it perfectly, and you just ignored him.

    I’d like you to clearly answer the initial question: According to you, did America deserves recognition for saving the world from evil ?

    If I understood your point, your answer is that since everybody effectively participated to the victory, that question has no meaning.
    Well, if you say that the question itself doesn’t even deserves consideration, then you implicitly say that a special recognition for America neither deserves consideration. Is that really your position?

    • Replies: @FB
  183. @TT

    Its known pigs are more intelligent animals than dogs, but too bad you just love bacon, nothing else matter to you. You even use monkeys & chimpanzees for cruel experiment. How humane?

    National Humanism is anti-pork. We believe pigs are our brothers and sisters.

  184. @FB

    Well, that’s not friendly from you to throw at me the Navier Stokes equation; I know that monster, I’m used to say it’s the kind of equation for which you better have to select landscape format for printing, if you can’t read small fonts ;=)
    About modelization, I was already convinced of what you say, from a general perspective. The few experience I got, because it was the initial reason of my interest in computer science, is that it can give you ideas, hypothesis, but it rarely produce a real proof. And the exponential increase of available computing power did not change that difficulty so much. I means that when you use more powerful computer on more complex system, you only finds how these complex system are sensitive to the timing of the fart of the 13,152,895th aemibia which was a samll piece of the modelized system.
    That’s why, for instance, I’m quite doubting on the scientific work about global warming. You knows they use a method akin to that of CFD and common weather forecasting. I don’t need to think of whatever conspiracy. I can’t say that the predictions will be wrong. I just know that those pretending to predict the CO2 and the temperature 20 years from now, they are deluding themselves about the robustness of their results.

    Anyway, let’s go back to our submarine. I did not see why you were going to the subject of turbulence. My guess is that for efficiency, the hull shape are tested for generating minimal turbulence.

    My idea about a conical pressure wave emmitted by the submarine nose in nothing more than a straightforward threedimensionale extrapolation of what is easily observable on the bidimensionnal sea surface when a boat is cruising. The bow wave seems to radiate, and because of the boat movement it draw a large V shape on the surface. In the case of submarine, I expect the intersection of the sea surface and the cone to draw an hyperbola which can be described by a few parameters fom which a small number will be unknown. Add to these the unknown parameters describing the course and location of the submarine.
    Then computer will have to guess the value of these unknown parameters. Actually, it will not test every possible set of parameters. When it find a set which for instance produces a very noisy image of something which has only 1% percent probability to be an actual submarine, it will iteratively adjust each parameter in order to to go from 1% to 99,999%. You can think of an automatic focusing camera. It only needs to adjust one parameters, but why could it not manages the adjusting of several parameters?
    Of course, in many instance, the noisy 1%sub image will not lead to a better one, because it was only random noise which happened to vaguely looks like a sub. Nevertheless, this kinf of tactics, whom the paradigmatic model is the simplex algorithm, can save a tremendous amount of computing power. And it is fun to code such kind of parameter hunting beast.

    About your comments on buoys for sonic detection, I have a fun detail to tell:
    Lokk at this datasheet: http://datasheet.octopart.com/LME49990MA/NOPB-National-Semiconductor-datasheet-8636748.pdf
    This little analog chip is the world champion in low distortion and high signal-noise ratio. I personnaly tested, with measurements, its superiority. It can be used for audio as well as for ultra-sound high def processing. This marvel is an american product. Guess what? Two years ago, it suddenly was no more available, no reason given. No equivalent or better product had ever been annouced by the company or any one else. That situation is absolutely previously unheard of.
    I have always thought the purpose was to deprive Chineses and Russians of the best tool to harvest sonic signals under the sea.

    • Replies: @FB
  185. TT says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Yes I do agree with you on the dog intimacy with human, but also wanted to point out the hypocrisy of many in West.

    First, myself is a dog lover, had owned dogs in past, and advocate not to eat dog or cat, but i don’t agree to insult Chinese or other nations for enjoying their traditional delicacy. I politely refused my Korean host offering me dog meat, but without insult them. When China nationals chat with me on eating dog meats, i just treat it as normal topic. Its illegal in my country to even kill dog or cat unless for medical reason by vet, but sure some may have eaten dogs in past or tried in overseas.

    I observed that in many third world countries, unlike us who harm the world with our food wastage, they actually recycled all their leftover to feed animals like chickens, pigs, cats and dogs. While most(99%) never eat cats & dogs, a small portion did since cats & dogs reproduce very fast & no one needs so many to guard their house or as pet. Those wander off to street may end up in someone’s dining table like a wild rabbit.

    While we killed much more animals than those dogs & cats eaten off, only just to fill our taste, with many even hunt & fish for fun, we have no qualms about ourselves committing these unnecessary killing. Some West nations even systematically killed wild animals like fox with poison baits.

    No one will complaint Frence eating slimmy snails(a famous delicacy i tried), nor Thais & Africans eating maggots/insects for proteins. Many Asians & Africans still eating rodents as supplement. But when it comes to China eating cats & dogs, everyone jumps in to insult entire nation as though themselves are more civilized & morally superior.

    What if one day jews & Muslims start to ridicule us from eating pork as dirty, or India Hindu lynch us for eating beef, are they truly more civilize? Everyone has their rights to do within their boundary as long its not evil & affecting others.

    But people like japs & Swedish who slaughter dolphins in hundreds cruelly every year just for stupid culture reason warrant us to condemn. Hunting of whales & creatures to extinction should also be prohibited.

    Only when we all go on vegan to avoid killing animals, then i fully applause. Otherwise, all talkings are just cheap.

  186. TT says:
    @Parisian Guy

    I was pretty surprised to hear that too as i often heard of return turtle (Chinese diaspora returning with wealth of knowledge). But he is quite a decent honest guy with no reason to lie to me. As he said, that policy was reversed in a few years later.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  187. TT says:
    @Parisian Guy

    “Who is father of US rocket sciences?” Everybody knows it was a German, Herr Von Braun, who previously created the world first working rocket, the famous V2 which flied from Peenemûnde to the british land during the last years of WW2.

    German was undisputable great nation of invention. But on rocket, esp multistage, sorry, everybody knows it was Chinese invention. 500yrs before V2 and Herr Von Braun were borned, others already making various kinds of rocket. The Europeans & Indians copied Chinese technology. British was even facing Indians using Chinese invented rockets in their colonizing invasion, which they later acquired it. No?

    https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/rocket/BottleRocket/13thru16.htm

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multistage_rocket

    [MORE]

    An illustration and description in the 14th century Chinese Huolongjing by Jiao Yu and Liu Bowen shows the oldest known multistage rocket; this was the “fire-dragon issuing from the water” (火龙出水, huǒ lóng chū shuǐ), used mostly by the Chinese navy.[6][7] It was a two-stage rocket that had booster rockets that would eventually burn out, yet before they did they automatically ignited a number of smaller rocket arrows that were shot out of the front end of the missile, which was shaped like a dragon’s head with an open mouth.[7] This multi-stage rocket may be considered the ancestor to the modern YingJi-62 ASCM.[7][8] The British scientist and historian Joseph Needham points out that the written material and depicted illustration of this rocket come from the oldest stratum of the Huolongjing, which can be dated roughly 1300–1350 AD (from the book’s part 1, chapter 3, page 23).[7]

    Another example of an early multistaged rocket is the Juhwa (走火) of Korean development. It was proposed by medieval Korean engineer, scientist and inventor Choe Museon and developed by the Firearms Bureau (火㷁道監) during the 14th century.[9][10] The rocket had the length of 15 cm and 13 cm; the diameter was 2.2 cm. It was attached to an arrow 110 cm long; experimental records show that the first results were around 200m in range.[11] There are records that show Korea kept developing this technology until it came to produce the Singijeon, or ‘magical machine arrows’ in the 16th century. The earliest experiments with multistage rockets in Europe were made in 1551 by Austrian Conrad Haas (1509–1576), the arsenal master of the town of Hermannstadt, Transylvania (now Sibiu/Hermannstadt, Romania). This concept was developed independently by at least four individuals:

    Kazimieras Simonavičius of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth (1600–1651)[12][13][14]
    the Russian Konstantin Tsiolkovsky (1857–1935)
    the American Robert Goddard (1882–1945)
    the German Hermann Oberth (1894–1989), born in Hermannstadt, Transylvania
    The first high-speed multistage rockets were the RTV-G-4 Bumper rockets tested at the White Sands Proving Ground and later at Cape Canaveral from 1948 to 1950. These consisted of a V-2 rocket and a WAC Corporal sounding rocket. The greatest altitude ever reached was 393 km, attained on February 24, 1949, at White Sands.

    In 1947, the Soviet rocket engineer and scientist Mikhail Tikhonravov developed a theory of parallel stages, which he called “packet rockets”. In his scheme, three parallel stages were fired from liftoff, but all three engines were fueled from the outer two stages, until they are empty and could be ejected. This is more efficient than sequential staging, because the second-stage engine is never just dead weight. In 1951, Soviet engineer and scientist Dmitry Okhotsimsky carried out a pioneering engineering study of general sequential and parallel staging, with and without the pumping of fuel between stages. The design of the R-7 Semyorka emerged from that study. The trio of rocket engines used in the first stage of the American Atlas I and Atlas II launch vehicles, arranged in a row, used parallel staging in a similar way: the outer pair of booster engines existed as a jettisonable pair which would, after they shut down, drop away with the lowermost outer skirt structure, leaving the central sustainer engine to complete the first stage’s engine burn towards apogee or orbit.

    Also i pointed out Father of US rocket science was a well quoted one in US. You might disagree. Still Mr Qian Xueshen contribution was well recognized for founding the Jet Propulsion Lab. He was pioneering US rocket science and the one advising US during WWII on ballistic missile guidance. Guess who represented US to interrogate German father of Rocket science Herr Von Braun?
    https://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/04/world/asia/04qian.html

    In 1943, Qian and two others in the Caltech rocketry group drafted the first document to use the name Jet Propulsion Laboratory; it was a proposal to the Army for developing missiles in response to Germany’s V-2 rocket. This led to the Private A, which flew in 1944, and later the Corporal, the WAC Corporal, and other designs.

    After World War II he served under von Kármán as a consultant to the United States Army Air Forces, and commissioned with the assimilated rank of colonel. Von Kármán and Tsien both were sent by the Army to Germany to investigate the progress of wartime aerodynamics research. Qian investigated research facilities and interviewed German scientists including Wernher von Braun and Rudolph Hermann.[8] Von Kármán wrote of Qian, “At the age of 36, he was an undisputed genius whose work was providing an enormous impetus to advances in high-speed aerodynamics and jet propulsion.”[2] The American journal Aviation Week & Space Technology would name Qian its Person of the Year in 2007, and comment on his interrogation of von Braun, “No one then knew that the father of the future U.S. space program was being quizzed by the father of the future Chinese space program.”[9]

    During this time, Colonel Qian worked on designing an intercontinental space plane. His work would inspire the X-20 Dyna-Soar, which itself would later influence the development of the American Space Shuttle.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  188. TT says:
    @Parisian Guy

    “Topological insulator”, Are you an expert in electronics to the point that you really knows that this finding has strategic worthiness? Or do you just repeat what you read from someone you don’t know?
    It also had been said that he planned to work for/with Huawei, but we are still waiting for a serious validation of that say.

    Im not expert on that field, just many reporting. Do you have any expertise on that to share?

    I didn’t read that he intended to work for Huawei, but he was actively engaging in a technology start up fund he founded with some Chinese investment to seed many potential US unicorns. US wasn’t happy about that.

    His discovery was widely reported to potentially revolutionize semiconductor, which he may intend to collaborate with a China semiconductor company.

    Whether he decided to end his life at his most glory time with all prestigious awards awaiting him & a happy family, or someone just follow CIA playbook throw him down from building, only he knew.

    But all three things happening in the same day, while Trumps had his dinner with Xi in Argentina to handshake was no ordinary coincidence.

    China SMIC takes on TSMC and Intel with order of ASML cutting-edge tool cost $120M
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Chinese-chip-maker-invests-in-next-gen-tool-to-close-gaps-with-Intel-TSMC-Samsung

    But FIRE delayed delivery.
    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/12/03/1660472/0/en/ASML-expects-some-delay-in-deliveries-during-start-of-2019-due-to-fire-at-supplier.html

    Another hit. Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit Co’s plan to start full-scale production at its US$6 billion plant is now in tatters after the US slammed the door on the firm’s purchase of chip manufacturing equipment
    https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/2175031/chip-maker-caught-us-assault-chinas-tech-ambitions

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  189. eah says:
    @eah

    Or turtles.

  190. FB says: • Website
    @Parisian Guy

    I agree that a submerged sub wake should not produce turbulence on the surface…didn’t mean to imply that…I only mentioned it in a general sense to show how many more large secrets of nature that we are yet to uncover…

    Btw…that wiki article on N-V is pretty laughable…they say [without citation] that ‘some’ ‘believe’ that N-V can ‘solve’ turbulence…I would suggest to that clown who wrote that that he work out the math and submit it to the Nobel physics committee…LOL

    Anyway…as you know [but for others here who may be wondering]…the onset of turbulent flow is well defined empirically by Reynolds number and ‘characteristic’ dimension…ie a pipe diameter or the chord length of an airplane wing…Reynolds number being the ratio of inertial forces to viscous forces in the fluid flow…since water is much more dense than air the viscous forces dominate and onset of turbulence requires greater fluid velocity and reference dimension…not sure what the reference dimension would be for a sub…perhaps its length…

    The sub wake will produce turbulence if moving while surfaced of course…which is why the surfaced maximum speed is much slower than submerged…due to the high drag associated with turbulence, which is wasted energy…

    Even though my computing knowledge is very sparse, what you say about clever algorithms saving lots of computing power rings very true…I know that in aerospace applications the code has to be very compact…microcircuits cannot be so tiny as on our terrestrial gadgets…due to susceptibility to being fried by cosmic radiation…even on aircraft this is a factor…and CPU circuits are a lot more chunky…

    I have a feeling before very powerful microprocessors came about, the engineers could accomplish a lot with very clever programming and quite basic processing power…just an observation from a non-specialist…[also notice that my MS Office seems to get slower, not faster, with each new generation of faster CPU…LOL]

    Also interesting you mentioned analog chips…yes analog is still superior for signal processing…interesting note about that chip disappearing…Russians are actually quite good on analog circuits…but again, this is beyond my space…

    Agree also on global climate models…the most farcical thing I have ever seen…I can tell you from many thousand hours experience in the cockpit that even the weather forecasts we get for the next few hours flight are rarely very accurate…sometimes wildly inaccurate…and they convince the people they can ‘model’ the entire global atmospheric and climate system…?

    But people are very ignorant about actual technicalities of science…

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  191. FB says: • Website
    @Parisian Guy

    LOL…I see you are playing whack-a-mole with these retards…they just keep popping up with the exact same bullshit…

    Btw…one thing that is never mentioned is how US helped build up Hitker’s industrial machine…90 percent of Wermacht trucks were built in factories built in Germany by the US…this makes Lend Lease look like peanuts…

  192. Whatever freedom the Chinese have will dwindle as time goes by. But so will the freedoms that Americans or Westerns Europeans have.
    Technology has handed a powerful weapon to the elites and if you think you are free to wag your wang in the wind, watch out for the consequences. Julian Assange is one such example. Wang wise and in challenging the JUSSA order.

  193. @Anon

    You are too verbose and not very logical.
    “Mr. Roberts forgets that China is surrounded by enemies on the North, East, and South.”
    China has very few enemies and these are the racially motivated whites and India.

  194. MBlanc46 says:
    @Deschutes

    ToNW may not have a lot on the ball, but you’re just a punk.

  195. FB says: • Website

    Must hear comments from 89 year-old former Alaska senator and current presidential hopeful Mike Gravel…

    In the last 30 years, China has taken 600 million people from poverty to middle class…now, with Belt and Road they want to take several billion people from poverty to middle class…the US doesn’t want that…US resents that China is eclipsing them economically…in science etc…

  196. @TT

    Thanks for the last link you referenced. Interesting details I did not have.

    About the Shoucheng Zhang death: I do have enough knowledge to understand two things:
    – it is quite possible that His discovery [could] to potentially revolutionize semiconductor. This is not bullshit.
    – But there can be many other technological barrier, which have to be broken, before getting an effective device.
    – Then, you have to work on that product and its manufacturing process to make it a commodity whom performance/price ratio is better than the current bid.

    That’s a long road, whom the attainment is not certain. “Potentially” is the most important word in your sentence.

    What was the real matter of his professional project when Shoucheng Zhang died? We don’t know. More than the “topological insulator” finding, Shoucheng Zhang’s main value was his superior brain. Therefore, he could have been involved in any kind of high tech project relative to electronics. These projects could be very strategic, and they could be not strategic. We can’t know.

  197. @FB

    I have a feeling before very powerful microprocessors came about, the engineers could accomplish a lot with very clever programming and quite basic processing power…just an observation from a non-specialist…

    Your feeling is also an objective reality.

    There is at least one obvious explanation, that is that the Moore’s Law doesn’t apply to the human brain power.

    Very roughly:
    Today’s computer are about fifteen thousand times faster than forty years ago. In the same duration available RAM memory size has been multiplied by one million.
    Therefore, software manufacturer, in order to make good use of today’s computer, should write fifteen thousand times more lines of computer language. Who will write them? Obviously, the number of high IQ human brains did not multiplied fifteen thousand times during the last forty years.
    The remedy was:
    – writing code in the quick and dirty way
    – employing also lesser IQ brains
    – adding which many code is not performing the purported task, nevertheless needed to correct the consequence of low-quality work. Think of the constant production of “last fix you must download”. Forty years ago, the software, past its beta phase, was stable.

    And there is also, in my opinion, this reason:
    Forty years ago, you had to write efficent code because of the limited power. Improving efficiency was half of the work ,and it was a big part of the fun. Think of a mechanics trying to get one more bit of horsepower from an engine. He enjoy that game. Today’s programers or hackers did not learn that game. Furthermore, if they tried to, it wouls not be rewarding, because there is many slowing causes they can’t remedy. This may be why some hackers went in the microprocessor overclocking game: to get the kind of fun that hackers could get, forty years ago, when tuning code.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  198. @TT

    Are you serious? The things you referenced are ancestors of the Von Braun’s V2, only in your eyes.
    There is no “rocket invention”. Well, do you agree if I pretend, by showing you the recoil of a fizzling gun: “Look at this! Here is the real precursor of the rocket invention!” ?

    If you stick to your view: let it be. Nevertheless this “rocket invention” is not the one which permitted satellites and interplanetary wandering. This “rocket invention” is nothing more than another flying object after the arrow, the javelin, the boomerang, and the cannonball.
    This doesn’t compare to the rocket engine invention.
    The rocket engine is the real invention. It’s the one which was a technological feat, a highly creative and smart one. It’s the one which made possible to go interplanetary.

    There is no invention of “multistage “. Multistage principle is a straightforward idea for any technological brain.

  199. @TT

    Well, All this is so strange. May be he is the one who had been lied to…

  200. peterAUS says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Re programming today, my 2 cents:

    Today’s programers or hackers did not learn that game.

    Depends who are you talking about.
    Real hackers, those who try to develop “zero-days” exploits do. They play, in assembly, with individual bits trying to “get” into the (normal) program execution.
    Plus, programming for EMBEDDED devices. Assembly and C.

    Furthermore, if they tried to, it wouls not be rewarding, because there is many slowing causes they can’t remedy.

    It is rewarding if they interrupt the normal program execution and, more important and much harder, to exploit it. You even have open (well, sort of) market for that today. You develop an exploit and sell it.

    This may be why some hackers went in the microprocessor overclocking game: to get the kind of fun that hackers could get, forty years ago, when tuning code.

    Correct.
    The real hackers, though, went to work for state level entities and work on developing exploits.
    The real programmers went to program embedded devices. Plus develop/improve/add to open source operating systems.
    The rest are .ahm…”software developers”.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  201. @peterAUS

    You’re right.
    I absolutely forgot the game about “zero day” exploit. May be I’m too honnesty minded, may be I’m mostly interested in creating something which produces something.
    For my part, I left computers and went in electronics, firstly digital (well, nothing more than using the Cmos 4000 serie chip, which were perfect for my low energy project). Thus I had to learn also some analogic and I discovered it could be fun. For instance, hunting distortion in audio amplifier.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  202. @ThreeCranes

    The destruction of the USA in its current incarnation may be the best thing that could happen for the average American.

    May be…

    When the size of the pie decreases, the share of everybody becomes a matter of hot disagreement.

    Remember political violence after German Reich was defeated in WW1.

  203. peterAUS says:
    @Parisian Guy

    May be I’m too honnesty minded, may be I’m mostly interested in creating something which produces something.
    For my part, I left computers and went in electronics, firstly digital (well, nothing more than using the Cmos 4000 serie chip, which were perfect for my low energy project). Thus I had to learn also some analogic and I discovered it could be fun.

    Go deeper…hehe.
    Design own processor, using TTL 7400.Beware,Control Unit is a bitch.Joking.

    Automation is, maybe, you could focus on. Smart homes with emphasize for elderly/disabled care, for example.

    But, also…..hehe…because you felt compelled to post here, you know, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to figure out and keep in touch with “hacking”.

    As we are moving quite nicely into surveillance state it can pay to know how to protect own data/communication.
    How to make “their” job a little bit harder.

  204. @FB

    This just in: Tests have confirmed advances in the maritime use of China’s home-grown satellite navigation system, gains that could strengthen the ability of the country’s submarines and underwater drones to mount stealth strikes, military specialists said.
    China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) said underwater precision positioning tests conducted by its No 716 Research and Development Institute in waters off Lianyungang in Jiangsu province, proved that it had overcome a number of core technical problems with the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System.
    CSIC, China’s biggest state-owned naval shipbuilder, said the tests showed that the BeiDou system could not only provide accurate and consistent positioning data to underwater vessels, but could also send tracking and positioning information from underwater devices to shore-based and surface stations.
    “The tests were meant to comprehensively test the BeiDou system’s capacity to deal with the complex sea environment,” CSIC said, adding that the system’s positioning accuracy and ranges were better than expected.
    But the company did not specify the depths and ranges of the tests.
    China adds new satellite to its Beidou network that aims to rival US global positioning system

    Beijing-based naval specialist Li Jie said the advances would help Chinese submarines and underwater drones improve their ability to track other vessels and mount precision stealth strikes.
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    “Precision and communication are the two most important elements for submarines and underwater drones,” Li said.
    “If the underwater BeiDou system can provide accurate positioning information and support communication between submarines and drones and land-based stations it would be a big strategic achievement for the Chinese navy – they will have finally built an independent global navigation system.”
    Improvements to the BeiDou system could help China in Arctic exploration. Photo: Xinhua
    Improvements to the BeiDou system could help China in Arctic exploration. Photo: Xinhua
    Share:
    The tests are understood to be part of Beijing’s plan to turn the BeiDou system into a global geolocation network, covering land and sea by 2020.
    State news agency Xinhua reported last week that China had 35 satellites in orbit as part of the system to provide accurate positioning and navigation services to users around the world.
    China plans more Beidou satellite launches as it continues to build up navigation system to rival GPS

    Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said the underwater BeiDou system could be for both military and civilian uses, including guiding artificial intelligence drones sent up to 3,000 metres below the surface of the South China Sea and other waters.
    “AI drones are cheaper to deploy than submarines, but they’re still very expensive, with one drone costing up to 50 million yuan (US$7.2 million). Underwater navigation in deep seas is also much more challenging than in the space,” Zhou said, adding that one of the drones was picked up by Vietnamese fishermen off the coast of Phu Yen province in south-central Vietnam in December.
    He said the system could also help China exploit maritime resources.
    “If the underwater BeiDou system can provide stable communication links with shore-based centres and surface command ships, then it would help China do underwater geological surveys,” Zhou said.
    Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong said the advances in the satellite navigation system could bolster the operations of China’s nuclear-powered strategic submarines, deep-sea rescues, scientific research on the high seas and even Arctic exploration

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  205. @peter mcloughlin

    ‘Mao’s quote, “If we fail we will be wiped from the face of the earth”, encapsulates it all. That is also the mind-set of the hegemon.’??

    A hegemon or a realist? In 1949 the US bombed coastal Dandong and strafed civilians in several cities, its warplanes buzzed coastal Shantou and Winston Churchill told the world, “I believe in the ultimate partition of China–and I mean ultimate.” The insults continued for decades.

    In 1992, after the US Defense Department[1] announced its mission to prevent a rival superpower emerging in Asia the Navy held a Chinese cargo ship, the Yinhe, at gunpoint in international waters for three weeks, claiming she was carrying contraband (she wasn’t).

    Two years later President Clinton sent the most powerful fleet ever assembled through the Taiwan Strait.

    In 1998 the US dropped five precision bombs on China’s embassy in Belgrade, killing three diplomats and seriously wounding twenty and CIA director George Tenet told Congress, “It was the only target we nominated.”

    In 2014 a US Navy article[2] proposed laying offensive underwater mines along China’s coast and destroying her maritime lines of communication while sending special forces to arm minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet.

    In 2017 the Air Force reaffirmed its willingness to launch a nuclear attack on China and in 2018 the Navy practiced blocking China’s access to oil through the Malacca Strait though, says defense analyst Michael Thim, “The PLAN, China’s Navy, had sufficient capabilities in place in 1996 such that sending Carrier Strike Groups into the Taiwan Strait would be suicidal. The situation has only become more challenging for the Navy in recent years, not because the PLAN has acquired an aircraft carrier of its own, but because China has greatly enhanced and modernized its existing anti-access/area-denial capabilities.”


    [1] U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP. By PATRICK E. TYLER. The New York Times, March, 1992.
    [2] US Naval Institute Proceedings, Deterring the Dragon

    • Replies: @Erebus
  206. @Godfree Roberts

    Save for very low frequency radiowaves, no radio signal can go underwater.

    It cannot. Plain. Simple.

    It cannot. Whatever the technological feat, the radiowave will not be there.

    • Agree: FB
    • Replies: @Iris
  207. Iris says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Save for very low frequency radiowaves, no radio signal can go underwater.

    The author of this article never stated that radio signals were going to be used by the BeiDou underwater communication system. In fifteen years, China has become the leader in revolutionary quantum information technologies, so she very likely to use them.

    This success is materialized by a fully- functional, fibre-optics quantum internet artery (2000 km), linking Beijing to Shanghai, branching out to many neighbouring cities. In comparison, the USA has barely launched the construction of a 500 km section, for the banking industry. In addition to this, China operates several experimental quantum satellites communication channels.

    The launch of the MOZI (Micius) quantum satellite in August 2016 was a first step towards this strategic scientific breakthrough, since it experimented the first deployment of a satellite capable of carrying out quantum transmissions of cryptographic keys over long distances.

    A month later, this exploit was improved upon by launching into space a second, lighter, space-to-ground quantum key distribution (QKD) system, reducing the payload from 600 kg to only 58 kg, and hence paving the way to a Chinese worldwide-cover quantum network based on a constellation of QKD satellites.

    In June 2017, Chinese researchers published the result of their ground-breaking works, having succeeded in establishing the first satellite-based quantum communication between two Earth locations separated by 1200 km, through satellite-to-ground links totalising 2400 km.

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6343/1140

    In August 2017, the Chinese announced having established the first long-distance (53 km), free-space quantum key distribution communication in daytime towards inter-satellite communication, proving that quantum technology was not anymore restricted by ambient light level
    https://www.nature.com/articles/nphoton.2017.116

    As a further key breakthrough, the Chinese announced shortly afterwards in having established quantum communication in free-space seawater. As a result of this research, it can be derived that, underwater, a communication distance of 885 meters is attainable to them, allowing communication with their submarines and marine drones.

    https://www.osapublishing.org/oe/abstract.cfm?uri=oe-25-17-19795

    As a consequence China holds the key, not only to revolutionary military applications, but also to the Quantum Internet that will replace our current worldwide network.

  208. @Iris

    The author of this article never stated that radio signals were going to be used by the BeiDou underwater communication system.

    Thanks for these interesting papers.
    Nevertheless, Godfree implicitly stated that radiowaves were used, since Beidou is a satellite navigation system, similar to GPS, Glonass or Galileo. That is something above one gigaHertz.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BeiDou

    If quantum communication was involved, that most important detail would/should have been told by Godfree.
    Waiting for his answer…

    • Replies: @Iris
  209. @Iris

    Furthermore, the paper about underwater quantum that you referenced tells only about a demonstration of feasability. The abstract ends :
    Our results confirm the feasibility of a seawater quantum channel, representing the first step towards underwater quantum communication.
    Therefore, many years will have to go, before the announcement of a future military grade system with its real-life requirements. My guess is they are still in the step of thinking about it.

    Can’t still understand what could be the underwater Beidou, if it does exist. At this stage, the most hopeful resarch to do would be to look at the recordings of the Chinese Legislative body. There must have been some work done to create laws of physics with Chinese characteristics.

    Other hypothesis: since the most use of underwater quantum would be for military, there could be some information war or deception going on…

    • Replies: @Iris
  210. Iris says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Nevertheless, Godfree implicitly stated that radiowaves were used, since Beidou is a satellite navigation system,

    Mr Roberts is correct, the satellite part of the BeiDou network is indeed currently based on radiowaves. But the author also tried to bring intention onto experimental Chinese technologies which Western public seems to consider as deluded fantasies, just because they don’t realise/understand how much ahead Chinese science has become.

    The Chinese breakthroughs in Quantum technology are not fantasies: a real, public, successful, trans-continental video-conference using Quantum-based systems took place in September 2017 between two academic laboratories in Beijing and Vienna.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4930302/China-holds-world-s-quantum-video-call.html

    Considering the progress made by China in QKD, one can only logically conclude that the future World Wide Web infrastructure will be based on Chinese, “unhackable” hybrid QKD/Fibre optics technology. (no more radiowaves)

    Furthermore, the military breakthroughs described by Mr Roberts, although at an experimental stage, are perfectly realistic considering that Chinese researchers have succeeded using QKD within all relevant media: fibre optics, space, day-light conditions and seawater. Regards.

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  211. Mr. Roberts, this column came out a week ago and the title is still wrong. I think you meant “humane” authority, not human.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  212. Iris says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Therefore, many years will have to go, before the announcement of a future military grade system with its real-life requirements. My guess is they are still in the step of thinking about it.

    The article’s Discussion (3) about Quantum communication in seawater states: “An achievable communication distance 885 meters can be derived if we apply attainable threshold of quantum communication against loss of 70dB “.

    Communicating at a depth in the magnitude 0f 885 metres would be a fantastic strategic advantage for Chinese submarines; a depth of only 100 metres is generally considered safe for these vessels.

    Can’t still understand what could be the underwater Beidou, if it does exist.

    Seawater Quantum communication, possibly using marine drones as relays to make the coverage even more robust, would complement the Beidou network and allow Chinese submarines to receive real-time information and instructions from ground and space, without incurring any risk of being detected. It would be a formidably integrated military force.

    • Replies: @FB
  213. Erebus says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Mao’s quote, “If we fail we will be wiped from the face of the earth”, encapsulates it all. That is also the mind-set of the hegemon.

    A hegemon or a realist?

    I think Mao said it in the same light as Hillary said they’d all be hanging from lampposts if Trump won. Namely, if Mao’s faction lost the war, his faction would be wiped from the face of the earth not so much by outsiders as by victorious rival domestic factions.

    peter mcloughlin’s question can be seen in the same light. If the faction currently running America and directing its lunge for domestic Totalitarianism and Global Hegemony fail, the repercussions will likely be catastrophic. Hanging from lampposts may be as good as it gets for them in the aftermath if the failure is sufficiently spectacular.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Godfree Roberts
  214. @Iris

    Moreover, the military advances described by Mr Roberts, although at an experimental stage, are perfectly realistic

    I agree with much of your own say, not with the say of Godfree.
    I don’t agree completely, since you are not interested much in real life difficulties such as:
    – It seems that the effective parameters are special in case of underwater quantum. Thus, difficulties can be expected when quantum communicating between the satellite (vacuum medium) and the submarine (marine environment), passing through the atmosphere (atmospheric medium).
    -70dB and 885m do not look promising for long distances underwater.
    I agree with you that Quantum will be one of the greatest revolutions of this century and that China is the most promising candidate today. And China is able to keep this scepter. This is realistic

    But, looks at what Godfree said exactly. He tells of prototypes (at least) which are working right now. This is not realistic. Just look for example around the beginning of his comment #206
    CSIC, China’s biggest state-owned naval shipbuilder, said the tests showed that the BeiDou system could not only provide accurate and consistent positioning data to underwater vessels, but could also send tracking and positioning information from underwater devices to shore-based and surface stations.
    Since it cannot be some kind of radiowave GPS, it shoud be some kind of positioning by quantum. It is not realistic that such system could exist today, because:
    Do you know the inner principle of GPS? It is not something as simple as a satellite doing text messaging of the geographic coordinates to the GPS receiver. It works by measuring with extreme accuracy the delay of propagation of the radiowave between satellite and receiver. (I’d been in marine electronics, long time ago). Is it possible to make an equivalent quantum device? I don’t even know if it is theorically possible. You have many references. Did one of them tells about positionning by quantum?
    There is a long way between what has been up today demonstrated under water, and a working prototype of a submarine positionning system.

    Furthermore, to be sure we are not disagreeing only because we don’t have the same understanding of the Godfree’s comment:
    How do you understand ” tests showed that the BeiDou system could ” ?
    – as the past form of “test shows that the system can”
    – or, as something conditionnal “test showed that the system is potentially able to”
    My understanding is the former meaning, and GoogleTranslate for French is same. Do the latter meaning is your understanding?

    By the way, your native language is an asian one, isn’t it?

    • Replies: @Iris
  215. FB says: • Website
    @Iris

    Iris, your comments are getting more ridiculous…

    Quantum computing is a lot of nothingburger right now…for the simple reason that our basic understanding of quantum mechanics is far from complete…for instance just recently the long-held idea of an ‘instantaneous’ ‘jump’ of quanta into a state where it is in two places at once [superposition] has been disproven…the movement has actually been recorded and is not a ‘jump’ but has a beginning, middle and end and all points in between…ie Schrodinger’s Cat paradox is no longer even a question…

    If you knew anything about quantum computing you would know that the whole trick is in error correction…

    It’s basically a lot of bullshit…because it depends on where you think that quanta is…but since our understanding of very basic and fundamental principles of the physics is so utterly lacking, there is no way to make something useful of it…

    Same for AI…another complete bullshit…how can you make a machine that does what the human mind does when we have basically zero idea of how the mind actually works…?

    Please give this pop-sci promotion a rest…there is massive disinformation going on in the media to make the sheeple believe in fairy tales…and the agenda is to fund ‘busy work’ for a lot of dumb people pretending to be scientists…

    When I have some time I will complete my examination of the sub detecting satellite bullshit…

    • Replies: @Jazman
    , @Iris
  216. Jazman says:
    @FB

    Do you have more information about upcoming radar upgrade for Su35 and new radar for Su57? Is it correct how media call it quantum radar or photonic radar ? Also I read one article and can not find it again but it was about how Russia measure RCS completely different to Americans
    All the best it is always pleasure to read your comments

  217. we have basically zero idea of how the mind actually works…?
    The few people who studied psychology, and neurobiology, and neuronal net computer simulation have quite more than zero basic idea about the mind working.

    IA is feasible. What explains the current hopeful trend is that the needed amount of computer power is now available, or will soon be. Last time I watched that field, there was no really new idea, comparing to the ideas from thirty years ago.

    • Disagree: FB
    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  218. Iris says:
    @FB

    Iris, your comments are getting more ridiculous…

    My heart is shattered; I need a biscuit to survive such rejection.

    Quantum computing is a lot of nothingburger right now…

    Quantum- encrypted fibre optics networks in Beijing, Jinan, Hefei, and Shanghai are already operating, and are connected to the longest backbone line to date ( 2,000km), serving real-world applications from banks, government, universities, and large Chinese companies such as AliBaba.
    Who made that work? Houdini?

    The breakthrough intercontinental quantum communication video-conference, held in Sept. 2017 through satellites, over a distance of 7,600 km, involved eminent quantum physicist Pr Anton Zeilinger on the Vienna side. How do you think the Chinese managed that? They fooled him?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anton_Zeilinger

    • Replies: @FB
  219. Iris says:
    @Parisian Guy

    Is it possible to make an equivalent quantum device?

    Within a year of the Mozi/Micius satellite being launched in 2016, Chinese scientists succeeded in accomplishing 3 fundamental experiments:
    – satellite-to-ground decoy-state quantum key distribution over a distance of 1,200km
    – satellite-based entanglement distribution to two locations on Earth separated by 1,200km
    – ground-to-satellite quantum teleportation over 1,400km

    This proves that quantum communication can replace current radiowave GPS positioning.

    You have many references. Did one of them tells about positionning by quantum?

    The foremost superiority of Quantum communication is that it cannot be hacked without the hacking being found about. It is therefore perfect for security-sensitive applications: military, banking, etc.. , for which it is likely to replace radiowave GPS.

    To build a quantum network with global coverage, scientists must reduce the solar background noise that hinders quantum transmission, so they will need to build a satellite-constellation based quantum network, i.e a network comprising a large number of satellites.

    This is why China’s ability to reduce Quantum satellites’ payload so drastically, by miniaturization of quantum hardware, was another major breakthrough.

    “A global quantum network needs many LEO satellites or several geosynchronous orbit satellites to compose a satellite constellation (SC). The time of a satellite in the Earth shadow area, which we call it night, is inverse proportional to the orbit height of the satellite; a) Transmittance spectra from visible to near infrared light in atmosphere at selected zenith angles; b) Solar radiation spectrum from visible to near infrared light.”

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311222313_Ground_test_of_satellite_constellation_based_quantum_communication

    • Replies: @Parisian Guy
  220. @Parisian Guy

    To FB:

    How could you know I’m wrong on this point? Do you know one of them?

  221. @Iris

    Did you really read me? You definitely not answered my questions about the feasability of a GPS-like device.
    Here is two biscuits.

    The question was not about how many kilometers the signal can go, nor was it about how great a Chinese quantum network is.

    From the GPS working principles, these questions are specifically implied :
    Can you measure the travel time of the Quantum signal between satellite and receiver?
    Is this travel time an accurate measurement of distance between satellite and receiver?
    If not, is there another way to measure the distance between satellite and receiver?

  222. @TT

    Cool links bro.
    No, I am saying I have no sinister intentions when I am just trying to walk past one of these terrestrially challenged insects. They are always so caught off guard that moment you draw abreast to them. It’s kinda funny. But I’m usually in too much of a hurry to care.

  223. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    Hello Erebus;
    A little off-topic, but actually not so much since we are discussing nations’ real scientific breakthroughs… I came across very convincing Russian scientific evidence with regard to the implausibility of the Apollo Moon landings.

    The evidence is damning because based only on technological arguments, so it makes a very black-and-white case. The USSR knew about the hoax all along, had evidence for it and used it to gain advantages from the US. Best.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  224. @RadicalCenter

    You are correct. That was the title and that is the doctrine. Too late now, I guess.

  225. @Erebus

    Mao made that statement in 1957. He was speaking about China as an independent nation and, interestingly, the PRC succeeded. I suspect the old boy would be chuffed if he could see his country today.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  226. @Iris

    Can you provide a link? That would be extremely helpful, even if the article is in Russian.

  227. Erebus says:

    I came across very convincing Russian scientific evidence with regard to the implausibility of the Apollo Moon landings.

    Hi Iris,
    Is there a link to this evidence available? If you’ve got only hard copy, there are ways to post it on the net. It would indeed be interesting, even if it’s only in the form of an argument, and even if only in Russian.

    That the Soviets would know it was a hoax isn’t surprising. They were far ahead of the Americans in almost every facet of aerospace engineering right up until Apollo came from nowhere to leapfrog over them. I encourage you to make your discovery public if doing so doesn’t betray a trust.

    If you’re unable to, it would be great if you could post a synopsis or executive summary.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Iris
  228. Erebus says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    He was speaking about China as an independent nation…

    In that context, it sounds like Mao was indulging in hyperbole, or paranoia. India has failed over the same time period (at least economically) and remains a long way from being wiped off the face of the earth.

    I suspect the old boy would be chuffed if he could see his country today.

    Not as chuffed as Thomas Jefferson (say) would be about today’s USA, or Bismarck about Germany, or… In fact, I suspect Mao would quite quickly grasp the fact that China is now rich, a great power, and on its way to becoming the world’s pre-eminent power.

  229. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    Hello Erebus;

    I wanted to bring this info to your attention before, but it was lengthy to explain and OT; my comment got trashed.
    Russia, the leading country in space industry, has all but officially endorsed the Moon Landing “Hoax” thesis. I will try to keep my comment to a minimum, hoping the moderator may indulge our engineering curiosity.

    [MORE]

    The state-owned RT Arabic satellite channel has broadcast a TV program hosting Alexander Popov, a Russian professor (with 2 PhD thesis) who summarised his findings, all purely science-related, and more detailed in a book he wrote about the Apollo missions. Here are a few striking findings he presented during the interview:

    – The real position of the Saturn V Apollo 11 rocket launcher, determined from a genuine, non-tampered amateur footage, thanks to the moment it passes through the clouds layer, was lagging 3 times behind the official NASA ascent record. It crossed the upper layer of clouds (8 km altitude) 105 seconds after take-off, at time at which it should have already reached 24 km altitude as per NASA post-flight trajectory record.
    The Apollo rocket could never have finished its flight, if not in the Atlantic ocean.

    – On return from space missions, and kept from the public for PR reasons, Russian astronauts were terribly weakened and badly affected by the total absence of gravity (as artificial gravity wasn’t used yet). They had to be transported on stretchers and hid from the public eye for several days. Unaware, NASA presented bouncy, energetic astronauts straight from “landing”.

    – Due to previous successful observation missions, Russian scientists knew, and NASA did not, that the Moon soil was absorbing light frequency in a way to appear brown/dark orange. As a consequence, all NASA “Moon footages” present a grey Moon soil. NASA would have, just by chance, landed 6 times in rare grey spots on a natural satellite which is overwhelmingly brown.

    This TV programme was first aired in April 2018 and has bee watched by over 1,2 million people on Youtube:

    Russia has now chosen to expose the hoax, to the mass of her Arabic-speaking supporters at least, so it is clearly endorsing the “hoax” thesis. (I couldn’t find the program mentioned above on the French, English and Spanish RT versions).

  230. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    [There is an open Moon Hoax thread for all the committed Moon Hoaxers. Moon Hoax comments everywhere else will be trashed.]

    • Replies: @Erebus
  231. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    There is? Comments have long been closed on the only Moon Hoax thread I’m aware of.

    Anyway Iris, thanks muchly for posting your find. Perhaps the moderator is hinting at the old Linh Dinh America as Religion article?

    • Replies: @Iris
  232. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    I will try posting further findings on the Lin Dinh “America as Religion” article.

  233. Lo says:

    Well, as it turns out, China cannot even convince Hong Kong to agree to China’s lead. So it may take a while before they can lead the world. Any comments about the issue Mr. Roberts? Why are these very educated, hardworking and ungrateful Chinese protesting in millions against China? Don’t they like datong society?

  234. Glad you asked. Perhaps a clue is your assertion that Hong Kongers are protesting ‘in millions.’

    A million people would occupy 36 km of Hong Kong’s broadest city roads, so even police estimates of 240,000 look high. When was the last time you saw 240,000 people in one place at one time? Ever?). Similar stories about Uyghurs being incarcerated in millions and mainland Chinese dying in tens of millions are the kind of atrocity stories that made the rounds in Athens in 800 BC and have never lost currency.

    The HK campaign is one of dozens launched in the past seventy years and even those that have been forgotten have left a collective impression on our memories and psyches. More memorable scams like the ‘Tiananmen Square Massacre’ narrative still generate dividends. They are manufactured narratives, unfounded in observable reality, which fall apart over time and under scrutiny, generated at great cost to undermine public perceptions of China.

    The real problem is this: China is pulling ahead of the US in science, technology, education, health and longevity, finance, diplomacy and human rights–and the world is noticing–while the West is sinking under the worst leadership and social injustice in recent memory and client states India and Turkey are jumping ship. We’re at a tipping point in global power so these attacks are intensifying.

    As to Hong Kong itself, any movement has the potential to absorb well-meaning progressive people, often with legitimate grievances, whose interests are not those of the movement’s leadership, as we’ve seen in Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Haiti, Ukraine and Syria–all of whose people lost terribly as a result of our interference. If the protests really served progressive ends they would not be supported by the very forces attempting to carry out coups in Venezuela, threatening Korea, and trying to start a war with peaceful Iran.

    By delaying legal and political integration with China as long as possible, the forces of Western finance capital in Hong Kong want to pull it away from China so it can function as an economic and political outpost in the region. To this end the U.S. has provided extensive political, financial and media support to the protests.

    The UK alone has embedded thousands of agents of all kinds in all walks of life and over 37,000 NGOs, with staffs in the tens of thousands, are registered in HK, many of which receive funding from the U.S. and Europe.  You can see photographs of their leaders online, receiving ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ awards in Washington from politicians. Martin Lee, founder of the Democratic Party, a member organization of the Civil Human Rights Front, met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who expressed support for the protests at the meeting. Most of the member organizations of Hong Kong’s Civil Human Rights Front, the coalition behind the current protests, receive or have received funding from the NED–including Hong Kong Institute of Human Resource Management, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions, Hong Kong Journalists Association, Civic Party, Labor Party and Democratic Party.

    With US-funded terrorism in Tibet under control and US-funded terrorism in Xinjiang finally quiescent, footholds for launching new attacks are vanishing and Hong Kong has rich, exploitable resources of frustration: despite decades of Western funding Hong Kong has a poverty rate of 20% (23.1% for children) compared to less than 1% in mainland China. In the past 20 years poverty in Hong Kong has remained high while mainland China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. While 98% of China’s bottom quintile own their homes free and clear while, in Hong Kong, home ownership has fallen from 54% to 49% in the past decade. Frustrated, angry people are exploitable especially since, as in the US, their ‘democratic’ government–beholden to property developers and landlords–is oddly incapable of changing their situation.

    Yet all the protests, including the 2014 ‘Occupy Central’ campaign, have ignored these very real issues and directed people’s ire at connections to mainland China while ignoring Hong Kong’s US-connected banks and ultra wealthy capitalists who bitterly resist addressing people’s pressing needs–just as they do in their home countries.

    US imperialism has a long history of ‘color revolutions’ in which protests with a progressive, even revolutionary patina are used as cover for a reactionary, pro-American agenda. Finance capital forces in Hong Kong are allied with U.S. imperialism and opposed to socialist ownership and the leadership of China by the Chinese Communist Party. Clearly, Hong Kong’s independent judicial/legal system is a relic British colonialism: nowhere else on earth does a city have independent extradition laws that supersede the laws of the sovereign nation to which it belongs. The situation is preposterous on its face and needs amendment, yet the PRC has tolerated it for 20 years and may continue doing so for another twenty.

    European and American corporate media have enthusiastically reported on Hong Kong protests, in stark contrast to the meager, often critical coverage of real protests in Gaza, Honduras, Sudan, Yemen, France and Brazil. They give extensive coverage to people like Howard Lam, the 42-year-old founding member of the Democratic Party who claimed he was abducted and tortured by PRC agents on August 10, 2017. This week Hong Kong’s court found that he had fabricated the story and lied to the court. Did you see the retractions? The scandal? Of course not.

    The difference in coverage exposes a difference in the forces behind the protests: cui bono? The U.S. claims to be concerned with free speech and ‘politically motivated’ extraditions from Hong Kong while aggressively pursuing the extradition of Julian Assange for exposing the US war crimes.

    Anyone who wants to see ‘non-violent’ democracy in action in Hong Kong should watch this:

    Imagine how the NYPD would respond if an officer was assaulted like that. What a crock.

    • Agree: Iris
    • Replies: @Erebus
  235. Erebus says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Godfree, here’s a tweet of a Chinese spokesman speaking about the HK protests. Perhaps he’s speaking of the cumulative number of protesters, but not only does he mention that there were 800k of them, but maintains that they were actually protesting in support of the legislation!

    That would put a wrench into the spokes of your claims of China’s wondrous honesty, in addition to their math talents. Methinks you’ve (again) oversold your case, or has the Chinese govt disavowed his statement?

  236. Kepha says:
    @Priss Factor

    Listen to most cultures’ self-assessments, and they are the wisest, most humane, most benevolent folks on the planet.

    I also believe the USA is unwise to try to play the world’s policeman. I believe in a far more cautious foreign policy, and paying more attention to our own domestic decline–especially since our government’s Messianic pretensions have bankrupted our own country. But I have also lived in China, know their language, and have worked as a freelance translator and translation editor. It is a country where an employee of their Foreign Ministry can be sincerely shocked at how an American descendant of German Jews has no warm spot for Hitler, and refuses to see the extermination of Old Country Relatives as a “necessary sacrifice for uniting the nation”. Hence, Xi’s dusting off Maoism shouldn’t shock or surprise us. China is the last, best, hope for 20th century totalitarianism, and it has been quite successful because several succeeding American administrations (starting with Nixon and the horribly overrated Henry Kissinger) have refused to note that very salient fact.

    Yes, China has its good points. I have a lot of regard for the Chinese people. But I hope the UNZ Review won’t be surprised when China’s hegemony is a lot less benign than this article suggests it will be.

  237. FB says: • Website
    @Iris

    Iris, I haven’t had time to respond to your prolific nonsense…but I owe it to readers here to provide some clarity on the subject of quantum computing…about which you obviously know nothing…and have been promoting completely fantastic narratives…

    I will point to an article with the title…

    How Close Are We—Really—to Building a Quantum Computer?

    Intel’s head of quantum computing talks about the challenges of developing algorithms, software programs and other necessities for a technology that doesn’t yet exist

    In this article from May, 2018 we are told that the first actual quantum computer is probably more than a decade away…

    People think quantum computers are just around the corner, but history shows these advances take time. If 10 years from now we have a quantum computer that has a few thousand qubits, that would certainly change the world in the same way the first microprocessor did. We and others have been saying it’s 10 years away. Some are saying it’s just three years away, and I would argue that they don’t have an understanding of how complex the technology is.

    I would say it’s going to be a lot longer than even ten years…I mentioned already that quantum mechanics is not fully understood…the whole idea of quantum computing rests on the idea of superposition where a quanta can be in two states simultaneously…so it can be both a zero and a one in binary math…

    But here is the thing…one of our longest-held ideas has just been disproven…the idea of a ‘quantum leap’ that takes zero time…this was the core of the quantum theory developed by Bohr, Heisenberg and others and came to be known as the ‘Copenhagen interpretation’…but Einstein thought it was ridiculous…so did Erwin Schrodinger who developed a rival theory…well it turns out that only now…nearly 100 years later…we can say Schrodinger and Einstein were right and the whole Copenhagen interpretation is wrong…

    The process of a quantum movement from one state to another is ‘as gradual as the melting of a snowman in the sun.’

    More on this groundbreaking discovery here and here…

    So how can we build a quantum computer when we don’t even know how quantum mechanics actually works…?

    It could take 100 years…maybe 1,000…we don’t even know what we don’t know…right now these ‘Big Science’ projects are a means to keep a lot of people doing busy work…because the herd mentality has decided that quantum computers are the future so we need to sink billions of dollars into it…

    Remember The Genome Project…?…I do…I used to get my copy of The New York Times every morning and there was the big ‘Science Times’ section…which had unmatched coverage of that huge project…it was going to revolutionize medicine…but here we are a generation later and…nothing…

    In fact one of the funny things is just how plain wrong these ‘geniuses’ turned out to be…at the start of the project the experts were asked just how many genes the human genome contained…the expert consensus was between 50,000 and 140,000…[since the fruit fly genome had already been decoded and contained something like 25,000…so naturally we would have a lot more…]

    Well…that number kept getting revised lower and lower as our understanding advanced and now stands at about 20,000 genes…[although some are now saying that it could be as high as 46,000…depending on how you define a ‘gene’…LOL]

    Here’s the latest farce on that front…

    So we’ve been here before…many times…the giant CERN particle accelerator was supposed to accomplish some Very Big Things too…but now they’re saying it’s basically done what it was designed to do…and it’s time to move on…

    So no…quantum computing is NOT REAL…and it may never be real…just like so many of our other expensive toys now gathering dust in the closet…

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