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I'm Now in FIRST PLACE Among Republicans in the California US Senate Race
But I'm still trailing "Undecided" by over 40 points!
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This morning’s newspapers announced that the latest statewide poll showed that I was now in first place among Republicans in the California U.S. Senate race, despite having jumped into the race on the absolutely last day for filing.

Given that my own support in the poll was merely 5%, placing me over 40 points behind “Undecided,” I think this situation is more a reflection of the current weakness of the once-mighty California Republican Party than the vast strength of own candidacy.

Meanwhile, I’ll be participating in a U.S. Senate Candidate forum in Stockton this afternoon, then taking a red-eye flight for a possibly heated Sunday afternoon debate at Harvard University on our Free Harvard/Fair Harvard Overseer campaign, at which I’ll probably receive some very tough questioning regarding my stated opposition to “Affirmative Action.”

Source: San Francisco Chronicle
Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Field Poll: Near Majority of Voters in California’s U.S. Senate race favor—nobody
Bruce Newman, San Jose Mercury News, April 9, 2016

If June’s open primary election to fill Barbara Boxer’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, the winner — in a landslide of indifference — would be Undecided and None of the Above, according to a new Field Poll.

Attorney General Kamala Harris maintains a solid lead among the top candidates, but nearly a majority of California voters still have no preference less than two months before June’s primary.

This is the second time a senate race in California has deployed the open primary system — in which the two top vote-getters square off in November’s general election, regardless of party — and far from emboldening downtrodden Republican voters, it seems to have left them scratching their heads.

Most Californians aren’t even aware that a Senate race is going on,” said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. “The presidential race is eclipsing everything else. Plus it’s not a case where Republicans have a really strong shot at winning in November.”

Taken together, combined support for the two Democrats leading in the poll — Harris (27 percent) and U.S. Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (14 percent) — amounts to 41 percent, still 7 percent shy of the voters who have no preference or are undecided. The numbers have hardly budged since January.

The nonpartisan Field Poll was conducted from March 24 to April 3, among 633 respondents representing a likely cross-section of voters. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, was so aghast at the level of lassitude revealed by the poll he didn’t even mention Harris or Sanchez in the headline of his news release.

[READ MORE]

California race for US Senate still under voters’ radar
John Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle, April 9, 2016:

A pair of Democrats, Attorney General Kamala Harris and Orange Country Rep. Loretta Sanchez, hold a commanding lead over a trio of Republicans in what so far is a barely visible contest to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

Harris’ 27 percent tops the race, with Sanchez at 14 percent and Ron Unz, Tom Del Beccaro and Duf Sundheim all mired in mid- to low single digits. But all those numbers are dwarfed by the 48 percent of likely voters who remain undecided, two months before the June 7 primary.

“It’s amazing,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. “No one seems to be paying attention.”

The din from the fight-to-the-death national presidential campaigns, which is only going to get louder as the state’s primary nears, may be drowning out the candidates in the California contest, even though they’re running for the state’s first open Senate seat in 24 years.

With so many voters yet to make a choice, it’s virtually impossible to glean too much from the poll, DiCamillo said.

“When voters aren’t paying attention, it’s a crapshoot,” he added.

While Harris looks like a good bet to finish in the top two and move on to the November general election, it’s a lot harder to determine who will share that ballot with her, DiCamillo said.

While Sanchez has strong support among Latino voters, she trails Harris — but leads all the Republicans — with almost every other demographic group in every part of the state, including both men and women and all but the youngest group of voters, where she’s tied with the attorney general.

There’s been almost no movement in the race. In October, Harris was at 30 percent, three points higher than in the new poll. Likewise, Sanchez also has fallen three points since October.

On the Republican side, it’s Unz, who jumped into the race less than a month ago, leading at 5 percent, with Del Beccaro dropping from 6 percent in October to 4 percent now and Sundheim falling a single point to 2 percent in that same period.

About the only bright spot for the GOP candidates is that nearly two-thirds of the undecided voters are Republicans, which history shows are likely to support a fellow party member in June, DiCamillo said. If GOP voters can coalesce around a single Republican, it could dramatically change the landscape of the Senate race.

[READ MORE]

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: 2016 Election 
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  1. Sean says:

    The Ron.

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  2. res says:

    Thanks for the update, Ron. Have any of the polls done breakdowns by party registration and expectation of voting in the primary? The last paragraph you quoted above sounds promising, but I did not see any source for more detail. If the Republican presidential race is still alive by then (highly likely), it seems you might benefit from a high R turnout. Is there any chance of you getting support from one of the presidential candidates?

    The polls I see don’t include you:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/ca/california_senate_primary-5338.html

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-senate-primary

    This Sacramento Bee article has some more details on the Field poll results: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article70829332.html
    Field poll website: http://www.field.com/fieldpoll/
    Field poll press releases are at http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/ but I don’t see one for the Senate race.

    Read More
  3. fnn says:

    Most Californians aren’t even aware that a Senate race is going on

    “It’s amazing,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. “No one seems to be paying attention.”

    Apparently because the whole of the media is consumed with attacking Trump.

    Read More
  4. J1234 says:

    Congratulations.

    Hint: Don’t make fun of your opponent’s wife.

    Read More
  5. SF says:

    I think the state’s paying app. $100,000 for a sex change operation for a convicted murderer doing life without parole is a good issue to use against Kamala Harris. She probably threw the case by not calling witnesses such as Dr. Paul McHugh, who could have won the case for the state, and she showed no interest in an appeal. It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.

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    • Replies: @landlubber

    It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.
     
    Sailer's supplicants have no shame.
  6. AndrewR says:

    You’ve got tough competition against Obama’s side piece, Harris, but I wish you luck.

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  7. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    My advice would be to say outrageous stuff. Not outrageous because it’s false but outrageous because no one running for office has ever dared to say it. Just spill the beans on everything. People will vote for you.

    Read More
  8. @SF
    I think the state's paying app. $100,000 for a sex change operation for a convicted murderer doing life without parole is a good issue to use against Kamala Harris. She probably threw the case by not calling witnesses such as Dr. Paul McHugh, who could have won the case for the state, and she showed no interest in an appeal. It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.

    It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.

    Sailer’s supplicants have no shame.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SF
    From your handle, you must be either Bruce Springsteen, or Cheech Marin.
    , @Reg Cæsar
    Nor do Al Gore's. He first brought Willie to our attention.
  9. SF says:
    @landlubber

    It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.
     
    Sailer's supplicants have no shame.

    From your handle, you must be either Bruce Springsteen, or Cheech Marin.

    Read More
  10. Your English language issue is not enough by itself, but you could easily include it in the following directly related problem:

    Legal/illegal immigration and the damage it is doing to the American middle and working classes through the resulting loss of their jobs, plus the related cultural decline, the culpability of political correctness and corporate greed, etc.

    That seems to be working very well for another candidate, a “buffoon” who probably will win your party’s presidential primary.

    That is a tide that would lift your boat, if you would get in the water.

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  11. @J1234
    Congratulations.

    Hint: Don't make fun of your opponent's wife.

    Especially if your opponent is female.

    Read More
  12. @landlubber

    It could have an impact similar to Willie Horton.
     
    Sailer's supplicants have no shame.

    Nor do Al Gore’s. He first brought Willie to our attention.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Maj. Kong
    Jimmy Carter won the nomination and the general, thanks to a certain Governor of Alabama.
  13. Congratulations. Your timing is good because with Clinton running the Democratic turnout will be low. Most of the Sanders supporters will stay home.

    May I suggest a change to your great website? Can you limit the number of comment posts for each article to three for each person? This will prevent self-appointed experts from fanatically commenting on everyone’s post with petty remarks. It will also prevent two or three commentators from digressing to some personal discussion or argument that waste’s everyone’s time. Three comments per article is enough!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    That's actually a good idea. I'm guilty of commenting too much and frivolously, but I comment when I'm drinking, so that's why... sorry!
  14. Lot says:

    Ron, you are probably aware you don’t have much change of making it past the top-2 primary. However, coming in third and first among Republicans is still a great honor and can position you for a run later.

    My view is the best use of your campaign resources are google ad words very tightly targeted to people looking for info about you, your opponents, or something like “Republicans California Senate 2016.” And second, glossy mailers targeted to regular GOP primary voters. 80% of the space positive and biographical, with 20% devoted to a quick hit on the biggest negative of each of the two opponents. Nothing too nasty, but something like “Sacramento politician who voted for 17 Tax Increases”

    Targeting independents I don’t think will be cost effective this round given the high number of GOP undecideds.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    What would Ron need to do to be competitive in a future state-wide California race? Switch party affiliation to Democrat and become a transsexual?
    , @Chrisnonymous
    I'm starting to have a "who is that masked man" reaction to your comments. Always interesting and sensible.

    @david chamberlin

    You can learn something valuable from this clip, and it's not that "biddy biddy bum"=funding attack ads. "If I..." https://youtu.be/RBHZFYpQ6nc?t=35s
  15. Congratulations!

    What is your stand on TPP?
    Strong Encryption?
    Immigration?
    Wall Street Transaction Tax?
    Glass-Steagall?
    FOIA?

    Read More
  16. LondonBob says:

    Just wait until the media looks at your website, you’ll be Trumped then. Funny to think CA elected Nixon and Reagan, sad really.

    Read More
  17. man, what would happen if ron actually gets elected? ahah, I would love to see that happen.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The most deplorable one
    Then get the work out to all those who signed up as Republicans to vote for Trump in the primaries!

    The Republican party sure doesn't seem to be getting the work out.
  18. Maj. Kong says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    Nor do Al Gore's. He first brought Willie to our attention.

    Jimmy Carter won the nomination and the general, thanks to a certain Governor of Alabama.

    Read More
  19. Good luck, seriously.

    I am a complete cynic when it comes to politics, if you get elected I guess I will revise my total cynicism to almost total cynicism.

    I wish I was a billionaire, it never hurts to have a billionaire funding the attack ads when you are running for the senate. Keep fighting the good fights my man.

    Read More
  20. vinteuil says:

    Sorry, OT, but heads up, Mr. Unz – why are you hosting Philip Giraldi – a guy who welcomes insane Jew-haters in his comment threads, but immediately bans anybody who criticizes him for cozying up to the SPLC? What’s up with that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @SFG
    My best guess would be, because he thinks the media's too soft on Israel, and wants to provide a platform for opposing views?
  21. […] the Old Right, marvelous Ron Unz excepted (vote for Ron, California!), boycotts my work. But they’ll not get away with denying its […]

    Read More
  22. Dave Pinsen says: • Website
    @Lot
    Ron, you are probably aware you don't have much change of making it past the top-2 primary. However, coming in third and first among Republicans is still a great honor and can position you for a run later.

    My view is the best use of your campaign resources are google ad words very tightly targeted to people looking for info about you, your opponents, or something like "Republicans California Senate 2016." And second, glossy mailers targeted to regular GOP primary voters. 80% of the space positive and biographical, with 20% devoted to a quick hit on the biggest negative of each of the two opponents. Nothing too nasty, but something like "Sacramento politician who voted for 17 Tax Increases"

    Targeting independents I don't think will be cost effective this round given the high number of GOP undecideds.

    What would Ron need to do to be competitive in a future state-wide California race? Switch party affiliation to Democrat and become a transsexual?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lot

    What would Ron need to do to be competitive in a future state-wide California race?
     
    The only way Republicans can win statewide is when Democrats nominate an awful Latino like Cruz Bustamante. You you just run a lot and hope you get lucky.

    There are plenty of congressional and local offices that Republicans can win however.

    One other scenario where the GOP wins is two republicans run in the primary and get maybe 15% each, and 10 democrats run and split the remaining 70% such that the top 2 are both Republicans. Then it is a mad dash to the left for the two Republicans who compete in the general election.

    While this seems far fetched, it seems to happen once or twice per cycle in California's 55 or whatever US House seats.

    No transgender politicians I know of yet, but our state house speaker and state senate leader were both gay recently.
  23. @Carlton Meyer
    Congratulations. Your timing is good because with Clinton running the Democratic turnout will be low. Most of the Sanders supporters will stay home.

    May I suggest a change to your great website? Can you limit the number of comment posts for each article to three for each person? This will prevent self-appointed experts from fanatically commenting on everyone's post with petty remarks. It will also prevent two or three commentators from digressing to some personal discussion or argument that waste's everyone's time. Three comments per article is enough!

    That’s actually a good idea. I’m guilty of commenting too much and frivolously, but I comment when I’m drinking, so that’s why… sorry!

    Read More
  24. @Lot
    Ron, you are probably aware you don't have much change of making it past the top-2 primary. However, coming in third and first among Republicans is still a great honor and can position you for a run later.

    My view is the best use of your campaign resources are google ad words very tightly targeted to people looking for info about you, your opponents, or something like "Republicans California Senate 2016." And second, glossy mailers targeted to regular GOP primary voters. 80% of the space positive and biographical, with 20% devoted to a quick hit on the biggest negative of each of the two opponents. Nothing too nasty, but something like "Sacramento politician who voted for 17 Tax Increases"

    Targeting independents I don't think will be cost effective this round given the high number of GOP undecideds.

    I’m starting to have a “who is that masked man” reaction to your comments. Always interesting and sensible.

    @david chamberlin

    You can learn something valuable from this clip, and it’s not that “biddy biddy bum”=funding attack ads. “If I…” https://youtu.be/RBHZFYpQ6nc?t=35s

    Read More
  25. SFG says:
    @vinteuil
    Sorry, OT, but heads up, Mr. Unz - why are you hosting Philip Giraldi - a guy who welcomes insane Jew-haters in his comment threads, but immediately bans anybody who criticizes him for cozying up to the SPLC? What's up with that?

    My best guess would be, because he thinks the media’s too soft on Israel, and wants to provide a platform for opposing views?

    Read More
  26. Lot says:
    @Dave Pinsen
    What would Ron need to do to be competitive in a future state-wide California race? Switch party affiliation to Democrat and become a transsexual?

    What would Ron need to do to be competitive in a future state-wide California race?

    The only way Republicans can win statewide is when Democrats nominate an awful Latino like Cruz Bustamante. You you just run a lot and hope you get lucky.

    There are plenty of congressional and local offices that Republicans can win however.

    One other scenario where the GOP wins is two republicans run in the primary and get maybe 15% each, and 10 democrats run and split the remaining 70% such that the top 2 are both Republicans. Then it is a mad dash to the left for the two Republicans who compete in the general election.

    While this seems far fetched, it seems to happen once or twice per cycle in California’s 55 or whatever US House seats.

    No transgender politicians I know of yet, but our state house speaker and state senate leader were both gay recently.

    Read More
  27. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:

    Well, you have my vote, FWIW.

    Say, do we vote for you in the primaries or what?

    Read More
  28. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:
    @Astuteobservor II
    man, what would happen if ron actually gets elected? ahah, I would love to see that happen.

    Then get the work out to all those who signed up as Republicans to vote for Trump in the primaries!

    The Republican party sure doesn’t seem to be getting the work out.

    Read More
  29. […] the Old Right, marvelous Ron Unz excepted (vote for Ron, California!), boycotts my work. But they’ll not get away with denying its […]

    Read More
  30. […] the Old Right, marvelous Ron Unz excepted (vote for Ron, California!), boycotts my work. But they’ll not get away with denying its […]

    Read More
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