From Reuters-Ipsos polling, the percentages of non-Hispanic whites, by state, who identify politically as Republicans in a two-party distribution follow. The poll ran from January of 2016 through November of 2018 so it serves as a good measure of partisan affiliation among whites in the Trump era. The total sample for the extended survey runs to over 450,000 respondents, more than twenty times larger than the typical presidential exit poll conducted on the day of an election. Even the smallest states have four-digit sample sizes:
|4) South Carolina||72.9|
|12) North Carolina||64.4|
|13) North Dakota||63.2|
|18) South Dakota||59.4|
|25) West Virginia||57.1|
|31) New Mexico||53.9|
|38) New Jersey||48.7|
|43) New Hampshire||45.7|
|45) New York||44.3|
|49) Rhode Island||35.7|
|51) District of Columbia||17.5|
What the Derb refers to as the cold civil war between goodwhites and badwhites is to a significant degree the continuation of the hot war that putatively ended 140 years ago.
Trump’s chances of reelection are slim. R-I currently shows Republicans with an 8-point advantage over Democrats among whites. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump beat Clinton by by 20 points among whites. Any backsliding on the Sailer strategy is something the president cannot afford. Many older whites who gave Trump his slim margin of victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will have died by the 2020 election. This actuarial assault puts his already precarious prospects for reelection in real trouble. Additionally, the US may be in a steep economic recession by the end of 2020 with interest rates at just 2.X% instead of the 5.X% as was the case in 2008. With a decade of near-zero rates in the rear view mirror quantitative easing will lead to stagflation this time around.
Parenthetically, in anticipation of objections about biased polling, R-I had pegged Clinton winning the popular vote by 5 points instead of the 2 points she actually won it by. R-I tends to oversample Democrats and undersample the politically unaffiliated, but that’s something easily accounted for. The institution’s polling substantially informed NPI’s mid-term projections, projections that fared quite well.