I first noticed president Trump referring to what preceded him as “the O’Biden administration”. Trump’s disdain for former president Obama is well known and he’s never given much indication of being a particularly numerate person, but Trump must know that Obama is one of if not the most popular American politicians today. So why would he pay Biden a compliment like that? Biden is Trump’s worst matchup yet still Trump gives him a boost?
It’s curious. It could be a consequence of the quintessential boomer getting his news from Fox and thinking that associating Biden with president O’Bummer will sink his toughest challenger. Trump genuinely thinks it’s a zinger.
Or it could be that Trump instinctively realizes the importance of the black vote in securing the Democrat nomination and in winning the general election, and also that soporific and senescent Sleepy Joe doesn’t have what it takes to make it to the end. With Harris and Booker floundering, Biden has become the de facto black candidate. Trump, like everyone else in the country, knows Sanders doesn’t have a prayer. So if he had discounted Biden, it is Warren he most likely expects to face (and is no doubt relishing the opportunity to go up against).
And Warren’s black support is abysmal. From the most recent YouGov poll, white and black support for the top three candidates among likely Democrat primary voters:
Some 11% of black respondents were unsure, so Biden doesn’t just have a plurality of relatively committed black voters, he has an absolute majority of them. By further investing the black electorate in O’Biden, Trump is working to maximize their sense of disappointment in and lack of enthusiasm for Warren.
This isn’t implausible. While Trump allegedly doesn’t read books, he does read polls. He comments on them more than any other politician in US history ever has and he regularly belittles people who aren’t faring well in them: