Rumors of campaign Biden’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Okay, maybe just slightly exaggerated. But he hasn’t lost any support over the last several months, let alone the last couple weeks. Here is his Democrat primary support over the last 77 polls, extending back to mid-June, the same time in the 2020 cycle that Trump announced his candidacy in the 2016 cycle:
Biden’s RCP average over the five most recent polls is 28%. His average over the entirety of all 77 of these polls that go back several months? 29%.
Beto O’Rourke (Jeb Bush) was astroturfed first, but the blue-blooded dorkwad flamed out immediately. Then Kamala Harris (Marco Rubio–chocker!) briefly spiked when she savaged Joe Biden (Donald Trump), but it ended up backfiring on her. Now Elizabeth Warren (Ted Cruz), who has made a point of not attacking Biden much (Cruz didn’t go after Trump for a long time, either), is assumed to be the one who will see Biden off.
The comparison is far from perfect, obviously. But just as Trump’s poll numbers stayed consistent as media pronouncement after media pronouncement of his campaign’s impending implosion was made, so do Biden’s. Trump famously bragged that his supporters would stick with him no matter what he did. On account of his strong black support, a similar dynamic exists for Biden. Both men are natural alphas with incorrigible cores natural to alphas. It’s something people find subconsciously attractive in leaders. Trump is the same person today as he was thirty years ago. So is Biden, clumsily and half-heartedly though he tries to hide it.
Disclaimer: I predicted a Kamala Harris nomination years ago, so the putative prognosticating ability on display in 2016 may have merely been the result of a bullshitting blogger who got lucky!