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Rumors of campaign Biden’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Okay, maybe just slightly exaggerated. But he hasn’t lost any support over the last several months, let alone the last couple weeks. Here is his Democrat primary support over the last 77 polls, extending back to mid-June, the same time in the 2020 cycle that Trump announced his candidacy in the 2016 cycle:

Biden’s RCP average over the five most recent polls is 28%. His average over the entirety of all 77 of these polls that go back several months? 29%.

Beto O’Rourke (Jeb Bush) was astroturfed first, but the blue-blooded dorkwad flamed out immediately. Then Kamala Harris (Marco Rubio–chocker!) briefly spiked when she savaged Joe Biden (Donald Trump), but it ended up backfiring on her. Now Elizabeth Warren (Ted Cruz), who has made a point of not attacking Biden much (Cruz didn’t go after Trump for a long time, either), is assumed to be the one who will see Biden off.

The comparison is far from perfect, obviously. But just as Trump’s poll numbers stayed consistent as media pronouncement after media pronouncement of his campaign’s impending implosion was made, so do Biden’s. Trump famously bragged that his supporters would stick with him no matter what he did. On account of his strong black support, a similar dynamic exists for Biden. Both men are natural alphas with incorrigible cores natural to alphas. It’s something people find subconsciously attractive in leaders. Trump is the same person today as he was thirty years ago. So is Biden, clumsily and half-heartedly though he tries to hide it.

Disclaimer: I predicted a Kamala Harris nomination years ago, so the putative prognosticating ability on display in 2016 may have merely been the result of a bullshitting blogger who got lucky!

 
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  1. Let’s analogize even more

    As Trump was the “Wal-Mart” of the 2016 race
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/donald-trumps-walmart-candidacy/420723/

    Biden is the “wal-mart” of the 2020 race
    Bernie has transitioned to a “family dollar” or “dollar general”

    Warren is like a “Whole Foods” or “Anthropologie”

    Everybody else are like specialty shops in the middle of a mall and are about to go broke

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  2. Both men are natural alphas with incorrigible cores natural to alphas. It’s something people find subconsciously attractive in leaders.

    Not this guy! I find nothing attractive about the bullshitting ability of either of these guys. I voted for Trump solely because of his stance on immigration (and no matter what he’s NOT done, it was very important that he brought the issue to the forefront). As for Biden, nothing is attractive to me about an anti-white lying, plagiarizing, half-senile Socialist.

  3. I realized Joe Biden was an alpha male during his 2012 Vice Presidential debate with (beta male) Paul Ryan. I don’t even normally think of men as alpha or beta but in that debate it was glaringly obvious.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    I can't even see Biden as male, let alone alpha male. The entire human race would have to be made up exclusively of effeminate male homosexuals and females for Biden to be considered an alpha male.
  4. Warren might be staying quiet on Biden to position herself for a VP spot. I had similar thoughts about Komodo, but she might have burned that bridge when she went full retard with the Biden is a racist stuff. But then again, Dopey Joe just stood there and took it (not so alpha – as when Trump gave Hillary a metaphorical backhand with his “You’d be in jail” quip) so maybe he’ll cuck even more and go with the fake slave descended African as opposed to the fake Amerindian. But this type of scandal that Biden’s mixed up in has no affect on Democrat voters. Blacks and feminists and homos don’t care about international corruption when it’s their horse at the gate; Hillary had how many more foreign scandals cooking up to 2016 and it didn’t hurt her at all with the Democrats. So those who were saying Biden’s done were being once again, too optimistic and having too much faith in the system.

  5. @Jay Fink
    I realized Joe Biden was an alpha male during his 2012 Vice Presidential debate with (beta male) Paul Ryan. I don't even normally think of men as alpha or beta but in that debate it was glaringly obvious.

    I can’t even see Biden as male, let alone alpha male. The entire human race would have to be made up exclusively of effeminate male homosexuals and females for Biden to be considered an alpha male.

  6. Like you, I mistakenly thought Kamala would be the nominee. That was because I did not know her background as attorney general in CA and its implications for the contest. (Silly me–I just thought she was Willie’s whore and had no other meaningful attributes.)

    Like you, I think Biden will hold his supporters.

    My latest guess–Biden vs Warren through primary season with Warren narrowly winning.

    It will be amusing reading the mass media tea leaves to see who the “objective journalists”/aka corporate whores _really_ support.

    But–the “Animal House” fraternity/sorority in DC is so wild these days–that throws an element of chaos into the mix–and we know chaos theory can generate some wacky outcomes (“tail events” for the geeks among us) 🙂 .

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    The most vicious internecine fighting seems to be between Sanders and Warren supporters, with the former accusing the latter of ripping off their platform and then watering it down and/or lying about it enough to get big corporate money. If Sanders stays in until the end, it's quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.
  7. We are now at the top of the four political party pre-Civil War II precipice. Who’ll push who is the question.

    The Democrat Party will see a flood of voters move to the Green Party if globalizer corporate whores Warren or Biden is the presidential nominee. Warren is play acting at left wing populism and people see it.

    The Republican Party will see a mass movement of voters to the new political party called White Core America because of Trump’s refusal to deport illegal alien invaders and Trump calling for mass legal immigration “in the largest numbers ever.”

    White Americans know that the Republican Party is controlled by donors who push mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration. White Americans know that the GOP CHEAP LABOR FACTION controls the Republican Party.

    Trump deliberately brought the Republican Party DONOR vs Republican Party VOTER split to a boil by using immigration policy and trade policy as wedges to bash the Hell out of donor-controlled politician whores like Jebby Bush and Teddy Cruz and the rest.

    There were four political parties contesting for the 1860 presidential election, and here we are back again.

    I don’t see Joe Biden losing the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY advantage that he currently enjoys against Elizabeth Warren.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

  8. Both men are natural alphas with incorrigible cores natural to alphas. It’s something people find subconsciously attractive in leaders. Trump is the same person today as he was thirty years ago. So is Biden, clumsily and half-heartedly though he tries to hide it.

    I hate to be a broke record, but people vote based on policy, not on personality. Trump, like Pewitt already said, pantsed the 2016 GOP establishment on trade, immigration, and foreign policy. Who wanted to vote for the GOP BAU of off-shoring, endless war, and C.o. Commerce driven immigration policy? Trump was literally the only GOP candidate offering a change of pace from Bushism.

    The dynamics in the 2020 Dem race are much different. Populism is further down the list so Sanders, Gabbard, and Yang are doing more poorly now than they would’ve in 2016. The Dems have to contend with a massive racial divide that the GOP is spared from; blacks overwhelmingly prefer the neo-liberal BAU establishment candidate, Joe Biden, while whites want a bigger change of pace (although like I said above, Warren’s half-hearted New Dealism aimed at the 1% and away from the 2-20% has quashed Sander’s more confrontational, blue collar, and idealistic aesthetic, which has been tainted by some of the Bernie Bros voting for Trump after Bernie lost to Hilary.) Until the Democrats reform their electoral system to stop prioritizing black dominated urban machines, the same tensions are going to keep popping up, and may end up getting worse over time, being that the older generations who created this arrangement in the 1960’s-1990’s* are going to fade away and be replaced by generations who want something different.

    *This arrangement goes something like this:
    – Talented 10th blacks are given prominence at the expense of Hispanics, Asians, and white New Dealers (white corporate whores, of course, are always welcome)
    – Superficial action is taken to help blacks as a whole (although the average black is nonetheless in worse shape than he was in the 1930’s-1950’s)
    – Nostalgia for the glory days of the New Left (1967-1975) is always present in large doses, pandering to the narcissism of black Silents and Boomers who were the leaders and foot soldiers of black liberation

  9. agree with you re Trump and Biden both being alphas–but there are 2 huge differences between them: 1. Trump probably has 1.5 SD advantage and 2. Trump has a 30-year-old’s drive and mental acuity–Biden? LOL

    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    Agreed. Biden is going to give Doofusses a bad name.
  10. @Meretricious
    agree with you re Trump and Biden both being alphas--but there are 2 huge differences between them: 1. Trump probably has 1.5 SD advantage and 2. Trump has a 30-year-old's drive and mental acuity--Biden? LOL

    Agreed. Biden is going to give Doofusses a bad name.

  11. @Justvisiting
    Like you, I mistakenly thought Kamala would be the nominee. That was because I did not know her background as attorney general in CA and its implications for the contest. (Silly me--I just thought she was Willie's whore and had no other meaningful attributes.)

    Like you, I think Biden will hold his supporters.

    My latest guess--Biden vs Warren through primary season with Warren narrowly winning.

    It will be amusing reading the mass media tea leaves to see who the "objective journalists"/aka corporate whores _really_ support.

    But--the "Animal House" fraternity/sorority in DC is so wild these days--that throws an element of chaos into the mix--and we know chaos theory can generate some wacky outcomes ("tail events" for the geeks among us) :-) .

    The most vicious internecine fighting seems to be between Sanders and Warren supporters, with the former accusing the latter of ripping off their platform and then watering it down and/or lying about it enough to get big corporate money. If Sanders stays in until the end, it’s quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    If Sanders stays in until the end, it’s quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.
     
    That's what it really comes down to isn't it? Will Bernie drop out, and more importantly if he does drop out when will he do so?

    I just can't see Bernie supporters switching their support to Biden. Maybe I'm wrong, but why would they switch to Biden rather than Warren? With Warren they have a chance of getting at least some of what they want. They're not going to get any of the things they want from Biden.

    Since we can't predict if and when Bernie drops out we can't predict who's going to win the nomination.
  12. @Audacious Epigone
    The most vicious internecine fighting seems to be between Sanders and Warren supporters, with the former accusing the latter of ripping off their platform and then watering it down and/or lying about it enough to get big corporate money. If Sanders stays in until the end, it's quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.

    If Sanders stays in until the end, it’s quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.

    That’s what it really comes down to isn’t it? Will Bernie drop out, and more importantly if he does drop out when will he do so?

    I just can’t see Bernie supporters switching their support to Biden. Maybe I’m wrong, but why would they switch to Biden rather than Warren? With Warren they have a chance of getting at least some of what they want. They’re not going to get any of the things they want from Biden.

    Since we can’t predict if and when Bernie drops out we can’t predict who’s going to win the nomination.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders' supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.
  13. It’s V-fib, you can shock that…oh wait, never mind.

  14. @dfordoom

    If Sanders stays in until the end, it’s quite possible that no one will have enough delegates to win outright.
     
    That's what it really comes down to isn't it? Will Bernie drop out, and more importantly if he does drop out when will he do so?

    I just can't see Bernie supporters switching their support to Biden. Maybe I'm wrong, but why would they switch to Biden rather than Warren? With Warren they have a chance of getting at least some of what they want. They're not going to get any of the things they want from Biden.

    Since we can't predict if and when Bernie drops out we can't predict who's going to win the nomination.

    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders’ supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders’ supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.
     
    I'm aware of those polls and they surprise me. What would motivate Sanders supporters to switch to Biden? Maybe I should no longer be surprised by the sheer irrationality of people. People vote their emotions. Reason has little to do with it. Policy has little to do with it.

    I'm inclined to think that a lot of people just haven't made up their minds.

    Or maybe Sanders supporters are bitter because they see Warren as having stolen a large part of Bernie's base? But when it comes to the crunch will they actually support a right-wing stooge like Biden?
  15. @Audacious Epigone
    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders' supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.

    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders’ supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.

    I’m aware of those polls and they surprise me. What would motivate Sanders supporters to switch to Biden? Maybe I should no longer be surprised by the sheer irrationality of people. People vote their emotions. Reason has little to do with it. Policy has little to do with it.

    I’m inclined to think that a lot of people just haven’t made up their minds.

    Or maybe Sanders supporters are bitter because they see Warren as having stolen a large part of Bernie’s base? But when it comes to the crunch will they actually support a right-wing stooge like Biden?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders gets about 10% of black support so most of that will probably go to Biden. As for the rest, my best guess is it is older moderate, working-class whites who have voted Democrat for their entire lives and are trying to make sense of why the mainstream of the party now seems to hate them and think they're racist.
  16. Disclaimer: I predicted a Kamala Harris nomination years ago, so the putative prognosticating ability on display in 2016 may have merely been the result of a bullshitting blogger who got lucky!

    A lot of smart people made the same mistake about Harris. It turns out that she just doesn’t have the political chops to be a contender at the national level. She’s kinda dumb, I think. And Tulsi Gabbard’s debate barbs were very effective. No one likes a hypocrite who throws people in prison for something they laugh about having also done themselves.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  17. @dfordoom

    That seems ideologically plausible, though the Morning Consult poll tracks second choices and consistently shows Sanders’ supporters slightly more likely to go to Biden than to Warren.
     
    I'm aware of those polls and they surprise me. What would motivate Sanders supporters to switch to Biden? Maybe I should no longer be surprised by the sheer irrationality of people. People vote their emotions. Reason has little to do with it. Policy has little to do with it.

    I'm inclined to think that a lot of people just haven't made up their minds.

    Or maybe Sanders supporters are bitter because they see Warren as having stolen a large part of Bernie's base? But when it comes to the crunch will they actually support a right-wing stooge like Biden?

    Sanders gets about 10% of black support so most of that will probably go to Biden. As for the rest, my best guess is it is older moderate, working-class whites who have voted Democrat for their entire lives and are trying to make sense of why the mainstream of the party now seems to hate them and think they’re racist.

    • Replies: @dfordoom

    my best guess is it is older moderate, working-class whites who have voted Democrat for their entire lives and are trying to make sense of why the mainstream of the party now seems to hate them and think they’re racist.
     
    Yeah, I think people are bewildered. I suspect that lot of Democrat voters would like to vote for the Democratic Party of the past. The party of FDR, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter. But that party no longer exists.

    Maybe they favour Biden because he looks more like an old school Democrat. He looks more like the kindly wise old man that they used to think politicians were supposed to be like. They just can't accept that he's a right-wing globalist stooge who will promote the lunacies of the Social Justice agenda if his paymasters tell him to.
  18. @Audacious Epigone
    Sanders gets about 10% of black support so most of that will probably go to Biden. As for the rest, my best guess is it is older moderate, working-class whites who have voted Democrat for their entire lives and are trying to make sense of why the mainstream of the party now seems to hate them and think they're racist.

    my best guess is it is older moderate, working-class whites who have voted Democrat for their entire lives and are trying to make sense of why the mainstream of the party now seems to hate them and think they’re racist.

    Yeah, I think people are bewildered. I suspect that lot of Democrat voters would like to vote for the Democratic Party of the past. The party of FDR, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter. But that party no longer exists.

    Maybe they favour Biden because he looks more like an old school Democrat. He looks more like the kindly wise old man that they used to think politicians were supposed to be like. They just can’t accept that he’s a right-wing globalist stooge who will promote the lunacies of the Social Justice agenda if his paymasters tell him to.

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