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Shutdown Shenanigans
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The news articles on all the putative political fallout president Trump is putatively receiving for revealing how utterly inconsequential the federal government is to the well being of middle America are pulling fast ones on their readers. Here’s an example from my favorite polling outfit, Reuters-Ipsos:

Forty-seven percent of adults hold Trump responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress, according to the Dec. 21-25 poll, conducted mostly after the shutdown began. Seven percent of Americans blamed congressional Republicans.

Yikes, that’s a 14-point gap in blame for Trump relative to Pelosi and co. The figures are virtually identical today as they were when that poll was commissioned a couple of weeks ago. Not good.

But wait. Adults? Who cares? Nearly half of all US adults don’t even vote in presidential elections. If election polling in 2016 had been of “adults” instead of “likely voters” or even “registered voters”, Hillary Clinton would’ve been up by double-digits on election day. Those who are the least politically engaged just–to the extent that they’re aware of them at all–echo the pop culture zeitgeist on political figures when asked about them. Those vague, apathetic sentiments have no electoral consequences.

When we just look at those who actually vote, things look considerably better for Trump. While a similar 47% of respondents who actually vote assign blame to Trump, 41% of respondents who do blame Democrats in Congress. A six point spread in the age of the imperial presidency is perfectly manageable, and Trump is managing it well. We will really see if he’s found his spine tomorrow.

 
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  1. Hail says: • Website

    47% of respondents who actually vote assign blame to Trump, 41% of respondents who do blame Democrats in Congress.

    47/41 = 1.15 ratio against Trump (subject to margin of error) on the ‘Shutdown.’

    Flash back to Nov. 2016:

    Trump 46.1%

    Anti-Trump, sum: 49.9%
    – Hillary 48.2%
    – Jill Stein 1.1% (Green Party)
    – Evan McMullin 0.5% (CIA decoy / Mormon [took 22% in Utah])
    – Sanders (write in) 0.1%

    Other
    – Gary Johnson 3.3% (Libertarian Party)
    – Darrell Castle 0.2% (Constitution Party)
    – Others; write ins 0.6%

    Ratio of actual popular votes in Nov. 2016 (49.9/46.1).

    In other words, no movement.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  2. Hail says: • Website

    Those who are the least politically engaged just–to the extent that they’re aware of them at all–echo the pop culture zeitgeist

    “Public opinion is conjured like a phantom by apparitionists serving some dark master.” –Kantbot, Oct. 2018.

    • Replies: @indocon
  3. anonymous[340] • Disclaimer says:

    “We will really see if he’s found his spine tomorrow.”

    Really, we will?

    How many such tests has President Trump really failed since taking office?

    Really?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  4. @Hail

    I had included a sentence about how this six-point spread is one that approximates the spreads that show up on all kinds of measures of Trump. IOW, this is exactly the partisan gap we’d expect. Partisanship in this case is support for Trump vs opposition to Trump, which is proxied pretty closely by Republican vs Democrat but of course not precisely so.

  5. @anonymous

    Touche. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me 41 times…

    Otoh, addressing the nation is something he inexplicably never does. He holds rallies and he communicates via social media, but a prime time address will be covered by all the hostile media outlets. They’ll be forced to present him on his own terms, as the primary source. And he’s not buckling. Has he held out on anything for weeks at a time up to this point?

  6. “Forty-seven percent of adults hold Trump responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress.”

    Holding one responsible and blaming someone are two different things. What was the actual question polled?

    Depending on how the question was phrased I might have two different responses.

    Yes, the shutdown is Trumps doing and I’m darn glad he’s doing it.

    The democrats are to blame because they refuse to provide for the security of the American people.

  7. anonymous[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    He addressed the world in Helsinki, but was walked back at that creepy presser with Bolton dropping moustache dandruff down his collar. Remember? The one where he seemed rattled, and where the lights really did go out?

    What he says tomorrow doesn’t mean squat.

  8. @Futurethirdworlder

    “Forty-seven percent of adults hold Trump responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress.”

    And seven percent blame Republicans in Congress.

    So, put another way, 47% blame Trump and 40% blame Congress.

    Factoring in 24/7 MSM agitprop, I’d say this probably works out in Don’s favor.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Futurethirdworlder
  9. @Mr McKenna

    The point I was trying to make is that, depending on your opinion, the government shutdown could be a good thing. I for one am glad they are closed for business and hope they stay closed and I give Trump credit for it not blame.

    Did the pollster first ask the people polled if they thought the government shutdown was a bad thing or is it an assumption?

  10. As always, the Lyin’ Press fools most of us by asking the wrong questions. It’s not “who’s to blame for the Feral Gov’t shutdown?” To the contrary, I pose the question “who came up with the excellent idea of shutting down the Feral Gov’t?”

    Also, I don’t ask “how long will this go on?” I ask Feral Gov’t Shutdown … is that a threat, or a promise?

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  11. A friend of mine brought up a very good point a couple of weeks back, when I first heard of this development. They are furloughing all non-essential employees. If they are non-essential, then let’s just fire them all! Actual productive businesses don’t have non-essential employees.

    It’s not just the cost saving from not paying people in the US Gov’t cush jobs (I don’t want to even go into pension obligations). That’s not the half of it. The rest is how good it will be for small business and individuals to work free of bullshit from the US Feral Gov’t.

    Since I mentioned that, with the Trump negativity here (that I agree with), I will give him props for bringing up crippling business regulation and taxation. He has dealt with this sort of thing when he was in business, so its something that he really knows about. He has acted on this in small ways, at least from what I’ve read.

    • Replies: @216
    , @MikeatMikedotMike
  12. 216 says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    The 95-96 shutdown(s) went a total of 27 days.

    The oddity is that for now at least, the public backlash is nowhere near as severe as the moralizing during the 2013 shutdown. This probably has to do with the exhaustion of outrage, making the “people will die” argument not as powerful.

    A warning in that the 95 shutdown caused a permanent impact on the party. Look at the (bicoastal) seats lost in ’96, most of them have never been won back.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  13. @Futurethirdworlder

    Oh, it was the DEMOCRATS who fully controlled Congress for two years and didn’t pass funding for the wall. Check.

  14. 216 says:

    Off topic Contrarianposting

    https://twitter.com/PoliticalKathy/status/1082422887758417920

    I’m actually going to agree with her here. Particularly in California, there is no utility to the remaining 7 white men in the California GOP delegation. Every one of them would do better for the party by retiring in 2020 and endorsing a non-white or female successor. If you are a white male Republican, California is not for you, accept this or emigrate.

    Ideally as I’ve speculated before, the CA GOP should disaffiliate from the national GOP and call for Calexit.

    https://twitter.com/PoliticalKathy/status/1082424353604730880

    No, I’m not taking her seriously, she outs herself as a subversive here.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Audacious Epigone
  15. Hail says: • Website
    @216

    the CA GOP should disaffiliate from the national GOP and call for Calexit.

    CalExit can mean a lot of things:

    Ideally, CA GOP should endorse (or be ready to endorse) a form of it whereby California is partitioned and some of the successor states are ‘readmitted’ to the United States. The successor states demographically-politically compatible with Middle America would be required to have state constitutions mandating tight migration controls and demographic integrity.

    Depending on how it develops, the nonwhite-supermajority California successor ‘states’ could either become independent entirely, or readmitted as non-state territories without voting rights to Congress or presidential electoral votes.

    See comment-35 in a previous thread:

    There should be a ready-to-go plan to divide CA into several entities in the event of a CalExit crisis, one or more of which would be released as independent and one or more reincorporated into the USA. Like Virginia was split in two during the Civil War combined with some India-Pakistan-1947-like population exchanges.

    There is still a lot of salvageable territory in California, and millions of people who would not be a demographic burden (as the majority of CA now is) […]

    it would be good to have such a “shovel ready” proposal on hand. We need institutions to argue our case, think tanks.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  16. Leave the offbrand voters in California and New York, take the Kraut voters in the Great Lakes states.

    Leave the gun, take the cannoli.

    The big prize in American politics is to win the German American vote in the Great Lakes states. It is called the German Strategy.

    Trumpy won the White House by winning the German American voters in the Great Lakes states and the Anglo-Celts in the Southern states.

    Trumpy won Florida by getting the votes of the Anglo-Celts in the northern portion of Florida in combination with the votes of the snowbirds from the Northeast and the Great Lakes states.

    If you subtract out the votes received by Hillary Clinton in the Bronx, Queens, Manhattan, Brooklyn and Los Angeles County, Trump would’ve won the popular vote.

    Any person triggered by the use of the term German Strategy should get close to the fainting couch for this doozy that describes Hillary Clinton’s use of Black lady voters to electorally bash out the brains of Bernie Sanders:

    Aunt Jemima Strategy

  17. 216 says:

    Contd:

    Wow! she’s a gold mine of ethnocentrist hypocrisy.

    https://twitter.com/PoliticalKathy/status/1082490509908733953

    https://twitter.com/PoliticalKathy/status/1082438428271222785

    https://twitter.com/PoliticalKathy/status/1082453203713699842

    Kevin McCarthy should hand over his seat to her tomorrow.

    • Replies: @Hail
  18. Truth says:

    So let’s see, I will try to explain this one more time:

    Camacho was elected, generally by peoples such as yourselves, primarily on the promise that he would shutdown the border. In reality he has now opened it up. Yes, that’s right he has OPENED the border, as well as the ports, the airports and the waters surrounding the US. I still can’t even wrap my head around it yet, hopefully Camacho’s speech tonight will help.

    http://fortune.com/2018/12/22/government-shutdown-border-patrol-homeland-security-unpaid-workers/

    Are you tired of winning yet?

    • Troll: 216
  19. It would be more interesting to see a regional breakdown of the polling numbers. All he needs to win in 2020 is the White Working Class vote, around the Great Lakes. Florida is still pulling R (shockingly, it has almost moved safer R since 2016), Ohio is now an R lock. NC, GA, TX, and AZ probably have one last red cycle in them before moving to tossup.

    So it comes down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Personally I think Pennsylvania is done for him, he hit the jackpot with his win there. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are where he’ll win or lose. If Trump fails to get this funding, well, it was an exciting 4 years. If he gets it, then he’ll at least have a chance in 2020. He seems to have finally found his backbone, but everything hinges on tonight.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  20. indocon says:
    @Hail

    You actually see the same Dem-Rep gap in 2018 elections. For 2020, we really need a Kamala type to win, a Biden/Sanders/Lizzy type if they make it past the primary will consolidate the anti Trump voters just the same way Democrats did it in 2016.

  21. @216

    This is not written to be argumentative, 216, but just to suggest some additional factors. By 1996, the conservative-promise called the Contract with America had become a dead letter, as the Newt just dropped the ball or really didn’t want it done. That caused a big backlash for this blogger here. Demographics had already changed by then too.

    I dunno, maybe all 3 things were a factor. To me, a Feral Gov’t shutdown is cause for celebration!

    • Replies: @216
  22. Hail says: • Website
    @216

    Typical and predictable East Asian ethnocentrism.

    (So much for East Asian ethnocentrism being a fading holdover from East Asians’ grandparents generation, or such things.)

    But what went into making this Kathy Zhu as she projects herself today (self-righteous Multicultacrat) must be conceded to be partly environmental, as well, a product of her time from age 5 to present in the USA:

    Kathy Zhu was born Sept. 1998 in China and came to the USA ca. 2004; the political-identity-formation critical period of 6th-to-12th grades for her was Sept. 2010 to June 2017, starting with the Obama era. She graduated from Orange County [California] School of the Arts, a high school, in 2017.

    It does look like she lapped up all the passive, implied anti-White rhetoric of the Obama years, despite the shock of the Trump movement and its success (late 2015 to 2016, beginning in her 11th grade year). The Trayvon Martin case straddled her 7th grade and 8th grade years, a highly critical period for anyone’s political identity. I do think these things matter.

    Quote from a Nov. 2016 interview with Kathy Zhu:

    I was a liberal-Obama lover. But I opened up my eyes to reality,” she told NextShark.

    (This is all just as those of us who have [1] been talking about the negative effects of elite immigration, and [2] predicted negative things about an eight-year Obama presidency on the then-upcoming generation, have been saying.)

    • Replies: @216
  23. 216 says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    ’96 was before my time, I wasn’t yet 5 so I have no first-hand memory of the election. Some of the Dem advantage was thought to be related to OKC bombing backlash. The economy was also good, and Clinton was triangulating (which Trump should be doing). Your sentiment is helpful.

    I’ve voiced this sentiment before, a fear that once a (suburban) seat is lost to the GOP, they rarely regain them. The Conservative Party in the UK also has this problem. Some of it is demographic, but a lot of it is a social conformism in the culture of the UMC professional class. Institutional inertia and self-interested ticket splitting kept a number of these GOP moderates in office.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London#Results
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Merseyside#Results

  24. 216 says:
    @Hail

    Ironically, Mme. Zhu is the author of her own problems. Nothing turns off Asians from the GOP like the trenchant Islamophobia (which serves the interests of warmongers, and never succeeds in getting immigration slashed). Even though most Asians in America aren’t Muslim, they show a remarkable tribalism here.

    https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=10485

    Another troll: Whenever anyone uses “Judeo-Christian” accuse them of being uninclusive and demand “Abrahamic” instead. Mention that Muslims fought alongside the US in the endless wars.

    Interesting that she was at UCF in Florida, a lower-tier regional institution similar to the one I attended. She presumably was not intelligent enough to get into a UC at home.

  25. @Audacious Epigone

    The reason why Trump doesn’t address the nation is that, of course, he does that daily, but in a different format. He lacks the self-discipline to sit for 10 minutes and read from a piece of paper written by others. To do so would mean that he acknowledges there are people at least as smart as him. So he prefers to address the nation through covfefe Tweets and videos of rambling speeches given to low-lives in various shitholes.

    (Seriously, what sort of person would waste his time to go to one of his rallies? I haven’t seen the new pope, and I can make do with Marcus Aurelius writings. Your life must really suck, and your spare time must be endless, if you prefer going in person, instead of watching the said speech on Youtube, or skimming a transcript.)

    Addressing the larger points: His tax cut did nothing for a majority of people. Despite “dropping unemployment” boasts” and “314,000 new jobs” every month, the rate of labor force participation has not budged up since 2015, meaning that, if anything, workers are fired more rapidly, and welfare payments are harder to get. In other words, life is harder, not better. His Obamacare reform does not exist. And, of course, there is no wall. He is very lucky that American voters don’t pay attention to facts, but he is still more likely to become a single-term president.

    If you thought, in 2015, that Trump would do anything better than Hillary, Jeb, or Piyush, you deserve U-wanka Trump as next president. (If elections would change anything, the rich would not allow you vote.) If you still believe Trump will do something for you, you deserve Jared.

  26. 216 says:
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Addressing the larger points: His tax cut did nothing for a majority of people. Despite “dropping unemployment” boasts” and “314,000 new jobs” every month, the rate of labor force participation has not budged up since 2015,

    We don’t know that, the participation rate has seen a slight increase, about 1/3rd of a point since its 2015 bottom. This has usually been linked to population aging and opioid abuse. With incoming reductions in prison populations (lagging indicator of crime rates) there will be more workers released back into the economy. The recent increase in wage growth may be correlated with last months jump to 63.1

    Or it could just be another blip. There’s also a secular increase in older workers.

    https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01375379

  27. @Audacious Epigone

    I don’t know what Trump will say tonight (2019/01/08), but he’s set things up perfectly for declaring a national emergency.

    I’ve commented on this at length over in Kilpatrick’s article (“What Trump Must Say . . .”, 2018/01/08, comment #12). Essentially, Trump is now the “reasonable man” in the contest, who has tried every possible means of closing the border _except_ declaring a National Emergency. His followers are clamoring for him to close the border and will accept a National Emergency, then defend Trump’s use of it. It’s what Sun Tzu called the “desperate ground” ploy, and only works under certain conditions, which Trump and the Democrats have brought about.

    Should this ploy succeed, Trump will be the undisputed ruler of the United States, simply because nobody else will have the constituency to hold the US together. That’s not a good thing, mounting the tiger being a lot easier than dismounting (and considering Trump’s time to biologically forced retirement), but it’s probably better than what the Democrats have in mind.

    Again, I can’t see the future, but the setup is perfect.

    Counterinsurgency

  28. @Dacian Julien Soros

    Seriously, what sort of person would waste his time to go to one of his rallies

    Going to a rally is a way of showing support, not a better way to hear someone talk. Unfortunately, I don’t have as much support left (with a caveat to that lower in this comment regarding alternatives).

    His tax cut did nothing for a majority of people.

    Did you look at the tax changes, Mr. (I hope you’re kidding) Soros(?)? For regular wage earners in the middle class, especially with only 1 or 2 kids, it’s a decent break, but not anything to buy a new car over. See, the lack of exemptions (for kids and dependents) got wiped out, as the standard deduction got doubled. This is about a wash for a family with 2 kids, but that’s not counting significant tax rate decreases.

    However, for a small family business, I think the 2018 taxes will be a worse deal. It takes twice as much in itemization to make it worth itemizing. That sounds like a wash, but it’s not, because if one itemized, one used to still get the exemptions – again, they are gone now.

    If you thought, in 2015, that Trump would do anything better than Hillary, Jeb, or Piyush, you deserve U-wanka Trump as next president.

    I wish he would do a lot more, but Donald Trump has done way better than the Hildabeast or ¡Jeb! just by NOT BEING the Hildabeast or ¡Jeb! It’s not who he is, and I am very thankful for that!

    Ivanka is probably good for one thing, and though I may deserve that, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  29. @Dacian Julien Soros

    Although you appear to be a Troll first timer, and I’d like to disagree, my innate cynicism is strong. The facts are that Trump hasn’t really done much. He talks big but then compromises for pennies on the dollar. The parasitic government is no smaller than when he was elected. We haven’t seen mass closings of Chinese factories and a concomitant building boom in American factories. We still have insane numbers of American troops scattered around the world in places where we have no defense interests while our border lies undefended. We still have hordes of unwashed primitives entering the nation legally and illegally. Etc.

    I’ve said before that this whole episode reminds me of a scripted reality show. I’ve never actually watched a scripted reality show, but I’ve seen excerpts and get the concept. WWF is another analogue as I understand the hyperbole and drama used to fire up idiots who watch it. Trump resembles the bombastic baddie on the stage, getting all the deplorables fired up to harmlessly vent their rage against the zeitgeist without actually doing anything. Employment is up, employment is down, yet these are numbers from government which I inherently distrust. Here in the HBD Mitten I do see more “hiring production workers” signs outside the remaining factories but I also see Government Motors shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic in management again and closing factories stateside while leaving those in Mexico and China open. All in all, the economy seems better, but I’m old enough to know that this is cyclical regardless of who is in the White House.

    We will have to wait and see. See how long this so-called shutdown lasts, see whether any actual dirt gets moved on the border, and see if anything meaningful happens to choke off the flood of legal invaders or remove the tens of millions who squat here illegally. I’m not optimistic by any stretch of the imagination. Government and media have been fucking me around and lying to me my entire life, it will take some extremely tangible changes for me to think the tide may be turning.

  30. Trump Live Television Opening Scene:

    Trump sitting at his desk in the Oval Office with Ruth Bader Ginsburg sitting on his lap.

    Trump says hello to the American people — Ruth Bader Ginsburg says hello.

    Trump turns to Ruth Bader Ginsburg and gives her a big kiss and Ruth Bader Ginsburg reciprocates.

    Tens of millions of Americans vomit out all the processed corn snacks and diet cola and beer that they have been consuming.

    Trump announces that Ruth Bader Ginsburg has decided to retire — effective immediately — and the retirement party will be at Trump Tower in New York City.

    Trump and Ruth Bader Ginsburg exchange more kisses and caresses and Ruth Bader Ginsburg gets off Trump’s lap while she waives bye-bye to the camera.

    Trump then says he must have border security and a wall or a fence or an obstacle or a barrier or something or other.

    Trump disappoints his voter base by not calling for an IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM.

    Trump disappoints his voter base by not announcing plans to deport every damn illegal alien invader in the United States.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  31. @Achmed E. Newman

    I wish he would do a lot more, but Donald Trump has done way better than the Hildabeast or ¡Jeb! just by NOT BEING the Hildabeast or ¡Jeb! It’s not who he is, and I am very thankful for that!

    The same argument was used to promote McStain and Mittens from Kolob. Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic is pointless. Either scuttle the damn ship or do something real to salvage her.

    I keep hearing that Trump has moved the Overton window and how great that is. And yet can you provide a list of times anybody has mentioned the metastasizing cancer that is the negro? Instead of acknowledging that there’s a problem, we worship them more than ever. Are we free to tell the circus freaks among us to sit down and shut the fuck up? No, we only hear how great trannies and faggots and dykes are. We are whom we idealize.

  32. @Charles Pewitt

    Haha! You have a vivid imagination, Charles, except for the last 3 paragraphs which I expect will be the case.

  33. @Stan d Mute

    I am just as disappointed in Trump, as you are, Stan. That doesn’t make what I wrote an untrue statement though.

    I will give you one piece of advice regarding your last paragraph: You’d be better off ditching your TV. I have a screen that we use for DVD videos. It used to pick up youtube through the player, but we don’t have that anymore. I gave my last TV to some Mexicans that were working on the neighbor’s house.

    LOSE! THE! TV!

    • Replies: @Stan d Mute
  34. @Achmed E. Newman

    As a rule any employee that doesn’t not directly contribute to the profitability of their employer is non essential. I’m speaking strictly private sector but I’m sure some tsk tsker will think up an exception for me.

    Unfortunately, too many companies are required to employ these non essentials. For example: HR

  35. @Achmed E. Newman

    I have several big LCDs ranging from 50”-85” but NO TV service. One screen is the kids for gaming, one is for home theater (we have a good library of DVDs and use Redbox) and another is used for nothing at all. I can’t watch Trumpster’s speech tonight. I haven’t watched TV since the mid-90’s when I began noticing how the “news” would recycle “news” stories and I’d already had enough of mindless sitcom and drama crap back in the 80’s. I watched CSPAN for a while in the 90’s but you really don’t want to watch how they make the sausage. We do have a plethora of computers, laptops, tablets, and phablets all around the house and I see excerpts of consumer crap, more than I can stomach, on those.

    You ever worry about all the RF around you? I was counting WiFi devices recently and was up over 30 in my house when I gave up. Since then we’ve added some “smart lighting” and have to be pretty close to 40 separate sources of WiFi in addition to several LTE devices and proprietary technologies. Maybe I’m just trying to get my cancer back?

  36. Corvinus says:

    “for revealing how utterly inconsequential the federal government is to the well being of middle America are pulling fast ones on their readers.”

    You are pulling the fast one here, AE. The shutdown affects agents at the FBI and the DEA, as well as at the TSA and members of the Coast Guard.

    https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2019/01/07/coast-guard-retirement-payments-government-shutdown

    The lack of employees after all means that loan applications backed by the Federal Housing Agency are significantly delayed and that the IRS will not process tax refunds. Farmers and small businesses cannot get loans or technical assistance. Employees of private contractors serving the federal government – many of whom work in low-wage positions as janitors, parking attendants, food service workers, and other roles – are also seeing their livelihoods at risk.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  37. @MikeatMikedotMike

    So all of a sudden comments await moderation even here? That doesn’t seem to be the case with quite a few others.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  38. @Futurethirdworlder

    “Who deserves most of the blame for the federal government shutdown?”

    Loaded language, of course, and I agree if the question had been posed to me and I trying to answer as technically accurately as possible, I would’ve “blamed” Trump for the shutdown–a shutdown a very much like seeing and congratulate Trump on bringing about. But the vast majority of people aren’t going to process the question like that.

  39. @216

    That was the Rovian strategy from 2000 through the early 2010s. No one could have been nicer to immigrants than John McCain, who very clearly preferred them to the people who actually voted for him. If these immigrants and ‘new Americans’ were natural conservatives on everything but immigration, McCain should’ve been their man–what a great opportunity to take control of the GOP!

    If you are a white male Republican, California is not for you, accept this or emigrate.

    In a decade this will apply even after swapping “Republican” for “Democrat”.

    • Replies: @216
  40. @Dacian Julien Soros

    He has of course read several speeches from teleprompters that are much longer than ten minutes.

    I’ve gone to two rallies. The first was during the primaries and it was a blast. We were corralled by BLM protesters on the way out and I got to bust out my rendition of this hilarious music video. It was even captured on one of the local news stations here!

    The second was for Kobach a few months ago. That one was memorable on account of the sheer number of middle Americans that it mobilized. The line stretched well over a mile and several thousand people were unable to get into the largest arena in the state’s capital. I got a visceral sense of why POCs and the 2% really are made uneasy by Trump. If instead of being an archetypal boomercon businessman he were Julius Caesar reincarnated, the thirteenth legion might be crossing the Potomac as we type!

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
    , @densa
  41. @Stan d Mute

    Blacks are the most sacred objects of all in the US. He did tweet out something that was factually incorrect but directionally correct on black crime during the primaries. But I know that while no other presidential aspirant in our lifetimes would even do that, it’s stretching to pretend like that made a difference.

  42. @Corvinus

    That entire apparatus is coming crashing down when the dollar does. That said, none of what you listed affects most middle Americans.

  43. @MikeatMikedotMike

    We are working out the bugs with the WP version Ron installed. I do not intend to moderate any comments at all. If I run into 1) personal information being disclosed, 2) extreme vulgarity, or 3) threats of violence or other seriously illegal activity, I’ll ban IP addresses. Otherwise, to steal from the great Heartiste, the comment section is a food fight. Have fun!

  44. 216 says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    In a decade this will apply even after swapping “Republican” for “Democrat”.

    Disagree, most Latin American Presidents have been and are white, people like Chavez and Morales are not the norm.

    Could whites in the CA Dem party be muscled out by Asians? Most certainly, but a hapa candidate could draw from both groups. Jeff Denham (cuck) was apparently muscled out by a hapa, when previous Hispanic candidates failed.

    https://www.harderforcongress.com/
    Amazing how the genetic dice roll, he rolled a 6 his brother rolled snake eyes.

    For all of our discussion on black/hispanic relations, Maxine Waters is representing a Hispanic district, and has never been targted. Though the next congresscreature probably won’t be black, he/she/xir could have been if Waters had bowed out and endorsed a successor.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_43rd_congressional_district

    District 43 is too valuable of real estate to leave as ghetto.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  45. @Audacious Epigone

    Ok, just curious. My first comment sat in moderation for a while which was unusual here, so you know.. all the crack I used to smoke with Troof has made me a bit paranoid.

    • Replies: @Truth
  46. @Audacious Epigone

    If Belle wasn’t your favorite Disney princess before, she will be now:

    Say hi to LaWasha and LaDryah for me.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  47. @MikeatMikedotMike

    I guess I had in my mind small business, Mike, but yes, HR is the scourge of the business world.

    (Part 2 and Part 3)

    • Agree: MikeatMikedotMike
  48. @Audacious Epigone

    Thank you for that, A.E. Mr. Sailer is fair about it, but his working hours make a number of my comments wait 8 to 20 hours to appear, and it’s hard to operate like that. I sure hope it works out.

  49. @216

    The racial dynamics–especially the putative moral dimensions–in Latin America are nothing like they are in the US. They’re slowly moving in that direction, but they’re a long way ‘behind’ their Anglo neighbors to the north.

    • Replies: @Criollo
  50. @Audacious Epigone

    That said, none of what you listed affects most middle Americans.

    Sure it does. Doesn’t it mean parents can now bring their kids and grandparents with them on airplane flights without the chance of them getting felt up? That’s a big effect. ;-}

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  51. anon[620] • Disclaimer says:

    “You are pulling the fast one here, AE. The shutdown affects agents at the FBI and the DEA, as well as at the TSA and members of the Coast Guard.”

    Oh, God no. It can’t be. No…no…noooooo. What ever will we do without the likes of the FBI and the DEA, two of the most corrupt and immoral groups in the country? The humanity of it all. A senseless tragedy.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Corvinus
  52. Truth says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    all the crack I used to smoke with Troof has made me a bit paranoid.

    That was baking soda and suggestive suggestion I used to give you Dawg.

  53. Corvinus says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    “That entire apparatus is coming crashing down when the dollar does.”

    I’ve been hearing that story for decades. We’ll believe it when we see it.

    “That said, none of what you listed affects most middle Americans.”

    Now you are moving the goalposts. You are going from the shutdown is “inconsequential to well being of middle America” to the shutdown is “not impacting most middle Americans”. Regardless, it is your liberty to remain ignorant.

  54. Corvinus says:
    @anon

    “What ever will we do without the likes of the FBI and the DEA, two of the most corrupt and immoral groups in the country?”

    Who/Whom?

    • Troll: 216
  55. SafeNow says:

    Regarding authority to declare an emergency, the Youngstown Steel case is crucial. Mr. Justice Jackson’s opinion, especially: The key is where the President stands on the issue compared to Congress; there is a “zone of twilight” that applies if Congress is paralyzed. I will call it “The Twilight Zone.” Mr. Trump, by trying strenuously to negotiate — which will fail — is trying to put Congress into the Twilight Zone. Then he will win in the Supreme Court. Here in California, we are already in The Twilight Zone, politically. Trump must establish that Congress also is.

  56. @MikeatMikedotMike

    Beauty and the beast was my wife’s favorite movie when she was a kid. I don’t remember ever watching it when I was younger but we watched the newer one that came out a couple of years ago so I can track all of that. Thanks for that… I think.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  57. densa says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Regarding the Kobach rally, The significance of the 2016 election was that it was a defeat of both parties. Trump has been a disappointment as he seems to think the GOP won. I’d like to see an understanding with Trump: we’ll support him and try to keep the dogs from tearing him and his apart, if he’ll be a transitional figure by bringing along America First politics and help establish its future leaders. (My fantasy is that he replaces Pence on the ticket with Rand Paul.) That is to say if he will see his place in history as the beginning of a movement, that it’s not all about him.

    Love reading what you, and most commenters, have to say here.

  58. @Audacious Epigone

    The cartoon version was amusing. I refuse to watch the version with Emma Watson, as she is sadly a deranged and broken individual. My older daughter played Belle in her jr. high musical so I found this back when I held some curiosity.

    Just to pile on, enjoy:

  59. Criollo says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    What exactly do you mean by this? Latin American societies are much more open about their ‘racism’ than America, and whites, however you wish to define them (I’ll be the first to admit that many are just off-white), do rule.

  60. There are now 60 comments. I have done a search for “deal” and for “compromise” and found no indication of any interest in, expectation of, or even speculation about a deal being offered which, for example, might provide $3 billion for border construction which met certain specifications. Clearly there are no politicians on this thread!

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