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From SurveyUSA, first and second choices combined for Democrat candidates among likely primary voters:

I suspect the perpetual rumors about Biden’s impending implosion will gradually fade into silence. Other than Sanders, his base is the most solid. Note that while the narrative has been that Biden has fallen in the polls, that’s simply incorrect. Biden’s support has remained remarkably steady from the beginning. Warren has closed the gap on him at the expense of Harris and O’Rourke, not Biden.

Biden’s support is twice the size of Sanders’. Additionally, Sanders’ supporters skew very young and thus electorally unreliable. As long as Biden’s supporters don’t scatter after Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, he will win big in South Carolina and possibly come out on top on Super Tuesday.

Pete Buttigieg does very poorly among non-whites, a result I’ve seen repeated in every other poll with data broken out by race. The comparison to Barack Obama in 2008 is a bad one because it only applies to their shared appeal among SWPLs. Homosexuals constitute a few percentage points of the Democrat electorate. Blacks make up one-quarter of it. That’s why Obama won and Buttigieg will not. He has surged recently on good results out of Iowa. For those invested in betting markets, now would be a great time to short him.

The SurveyUSA poll also asked about those who voted for Trump in 2016 but plan on voting in the Democrat primaries next year who they plan on supporting. The results are a major reason Biden is Trump’s toughest match up:

Though these 2016 Trump are not broken out by race, they must be predominantly white. Biden’s coalition is comprised of blacks who appreciate his role as Obama’s loyal lieutenant and of moderate whites who are trying to figure out why people they like keep calling them racists.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020 
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  1. Hail says: • Website

    Pete Buttigieg does very poorly among non-whites

    Suggesting no breakout will be forthcoming by Mayor Pete. Nor by Klobuchar, an otherwise-plausible second-tier candidate who has laughably few nonwhite supporters from the looks of that data.

    A Harris breakout is still possible if/when Blacks start paying attention and are not put-off by her terrible personality. A Booker breakout is possible for the same reason.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Reg Cæsar
  2. Biden probably would have beaten Trump had he been allowed to run in 2016. He may yet beat him in 2020. Nobody else has a chance. I think the DNC effectively destroyed itself by anointing Shrillary the candidate and then doubling down with the absurd Russiagate hoax in the wake of her unexpected loss. The bevy of absurd Democratic candidates testifies to the loss of any centralized control by the party. When the weeds are crowding up, you know there’s no gardener tending the plot.

    • LOL: Ash Williams
  3. Hail says: • Website

    RealClearPolitics polling average (rolling) as of October 21, 2019 (reflecting polling conducted Oct. 6 to Oct. 16):

    – Biden: 29
    – Warren: 25
    – Sanders: 15
    – Buttigieg: 6
    – Harris: 6
    – Beto, Yang, Booker, Klobuchar: 2 each.
    – Gabbard, Castro, Steyer, Bennett, Ryan, Williamson: 1 each.

    The consolidation around Warren that happened in September has stalled in October. She still may be on a longterm trendline to surpass Biden by circa early November. She had two weak polls conducted between Oct. 15 and 16, presumably in the 24hrs or so after the Dem debate (Oct. 15, 8pm EDT).

    If the post-Dem-Debate polls were right, D-team primary voters who watched the debate were somewhat less impressed by Warren than they were by Sanders, Harris, and Biden, who all got small bumps. But the debate is ultimately just a news-cycle item, soon to be forgotten. When those polls are replaced by fresh ones in the RCP rolling average, which I think will happen later this week, Warren may end up closing on Biden again.

    The only problem for Warren is (weak) Black enthusiasm. Blacks in the South remain a huge constituency in the D-primary system, and are arguably the kingmakers given their tendency to racially bloc-vote.

    Do you see any indication that Blacks can ever really firmly get behind Warren?

    • Replies: @216
    , @Audacious Epigone
  4. 216 says: • Website

    Gabbard and Yang combined only are pulling 10% of the Trump defectors.

    Something of an acid test of Dissident Right supporters.

    In real life, cuckservatism actually has quite a strong base; our positions for now are only strongly held by several hundred thousand people at maximum, with a few million or so loosely attached but still considering themselves mainstream conservatives.

    If Jon Huntsman Jr wants to try another run for the GOP nomination, this is his year to do it.

    • Replies: @Hail
  5. 216 says: • Website
    @Hail

    Do you see any indication that Blacks can ever really firmly get behind Warren?

    Nominating Bookah as her running mate.

    • Replies: @Hail
  6. 216 says: • Website

    O/T

    First reaction: wat?

    Second reaction: I told you so about using slurs. Free speech absolutism is a losing hand when a sizeable minority of Zeds want to police pronouns.

    Manners maketh man, start learning them if you want to be politically relevant.

    Or don’t, and purity spiral your way into prison.

  7. Hail says: • Website
    @216

    I am thinking Stacey Abrams.

    [MORE]

    Slogan:

    Warren-Abrams 2020
    Vanilla and Chocolate!
    It’s Our Turn Now…

  8. gman says:

    Here is a prediction market table (predictit) https://www.politicalalertengine.com

    As of this writing Buttigieg os 3rd for nomination and 2nd in IA.

    AE: Here I am going to pay devil’s advocate for Buttigieg (NB: I really don’t like Buttigieg but will admit he is eloquent/articulate on the stump/debates)

    > The establishment would love Mayor Pete (i.e. Zuckerberg story)
    > The logic for Biden is ultimately circular. He is leading the polls because he is the most “electable” and he is the most “electable” because he is leading the polls. Therefore if his campaign enters a downturn or even slowly slips (say he goes to the mid-teens percentages), then it could be hard for him to recover). Not to mention, Biden’s fundraising has slowed recently
    > The CBC likes establishment politicians and should his poll numbers increase, he could garner CBC endorsements
    > There are articles saying that his campaign is aggressively courting super delegates. This along with support from elites, means he is well positioned in the case of a brokered convention
    > Compared to other “moderate” candidates, he has a lot more fundraising
    > The fact that he has come this far with his highest position being mayor of South Bend says something about candidate quality

  9. Hail says: • Website
    @216

    Not so fast, 216 — Don’t overlook the Biden 33%.

    Ann Coulter The Great has practically endorsed Joe Biden. And I believe AE himself is a Biden backer. I share their view that Old Joe would be better on immigration than Don the Long-Con Tweetman has been.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  10. gman says:

    And let’s take the possibility of a contested convention seriously.

    With mostly proportional rules (15% threshold: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-percent-is-not-a-magic-number-for-primary-delegates/), let’s assume you need 45% of the popular vote to win the nomination on the first ballot. Keep in mind that rules matter. Trump could have entered into a contested convention had the GOP had Dem rules.

    Here’s what we know
    1. Bernie Sanders is guaranteed 15% (maybe even 20%) of the vote as his core supporters are loyal and he will never run out of money and has no need to drop out to please the establishment
    2. Given Bernie Sanders only got 43% of the popular vote in 2016, it’s an uphill battle for him to win it. While he is doing better with minorities this time, he has a lot more competition
    3. If it devolves into a two person race quickly, then it’s unlikely to be contested
    4. Given Bernie’s loyal supporters, in a two-person race, Bernie must be one of the two people

    Here’s what I think
    1. Can Biden really get 45% of the vote? I think there are a lot of young people who wouldn’t vote for him and I can’t imagine a lot of current Warren supporters switching to him.
    2. I think it’s unlikely to devolve to a two person Bernie/Biden race. I do think a two-person Bernie/Warren race is possible in which case Warren wins (with establishment support)

    Questions for AE
    In a contested convention, who is favored? (and how much of who is favored in a contested convention depends on the primary results)?

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Audacious Epigone
  11. BB753 says:

    Do Blacks prefer Biden by default? What’s the story here?

    • Replies: @A123
  12. Arclight says:

    The problem with Biden and Warren is that there are significant parts of the Dem coalition that are decidedly unenthusiastic about each – woke whites can’t stand Biden, and blacks and to a lesser extent working class whites are not crazy about Warren. Obviously once there is a nominee most people will get in line, but the question is how many people – and who they are – decide to stay at home.

    Turnout will likely be down across the board compared to 2016, so it really comes down to whether Trump or his opponent gets the worst of that.

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
  13. A123 says:
    @gman

    The Biden family’s financial ties to Ukraine are seen as guaranteeing a military expedition there if he becomes president. So, there are huge numbers of DNC voters who go for “Anyone but Biden”.

    A brokered convention with Warren and Sanders keeping Biden off the ticket is a real possibility.

    Another possibility is Tulsi obtaining enough votes to be seen as viable in a brokered convention. Unlikely, I admit. However, every Hillary attack promotes Tulsi as the definitive anti-establishment leader.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Gman
  14. A123 says:
    @BB753

    Do Blacks prefer Biden by default? What’s the story here?

    That topic was recently raised here:

    http://www.unz.com/anepigone/bidens-black-wall/

    The short version seems to be that Biden’s loyal service as VP to Barak Hussein Obama has locked in significant support.

    PEACE 😇

  15. eah says:

    By sex (or race and sex) would be more interesting — although other than perhaps Sanders and/or Steyer and/or Yang (all of them are a stretch), I can’t imagine a man voting for one of these shrews or beta (or gay) jackasses — and it would probably strengthen my conviction that the 19th should be repealed.

  16. White Core America will win the votes of millions of White Christians in 2020.

    The Green Party will win millions of White votes in 2020.

    Trump has abandoned the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    Biden — the anti-worker, pro-globalization China Boy ruling class stooge — will not be able to hold the allegiance of millions of White voters and those voters will find a home in the Green Party. The Green Party leadership must make sure that their message is more along the lines of Lori Wallach of Trade Watch rather than an appeal to upper middle class Whites and government workers who slavishly support the Democrat Party ruling class and Hillary Clinton. Lori Wallach went to Harvard, but that doesn’t make her a bad person.

    White Core America will bring WHITE IDENTITY POLITICS to the USA in a big way.

    Trump goes out of his way to never mention Whites or the English colonialists who created the USA.

    White Core America will feature the Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) as a vote grabber. The PCLP will give each American citizen with all blood ancestry that was born in the USA before 1924 — or colonial American blood ancestry — ten thousand dollars a month. White Core America will order the Federal Reserve Bank to conjure up the loot out of thin air just like the Fed conjured up the trillions of dollars in bailout money for the money-grubbing scum in the Finance — Insurance — Real Estate sector.

    White Core America will also wipe out all student loan debt and return all student loan debt ever paid — plus 6 percent a year in lost opportunity costs — to every borrower who ever paid a penny in student loans.

    White Core America will immediately deport all illegal alien invaders.

    White Core America will implement an immigration moratorium. REFUGEE OVERLOAD and the ASYLUM SEEKER SCAM will be immediately discontinued.

    White Core America will use the tax code to financially liquidate all owners, executives or other corporate controllers of the corporate propaganda apparatus.

    White Core America will dislodge the hostile JEW/WASP ruling class from power in the American Empire. Military Keynesianism will continue as a jobs program for members of the European Christian ancestral core and the newly formed White Core American Militia will be tasked with maintaining White Core American control over the Federal Reserve Bank and the propaganda outlets. We’ll print up our own loot and we’ll tell our own story without interference from hostile globalizers bent on doing further damage to the European Christian ancestral core of the USA.

    The American Empire will go to an offshore regional balancer strategy in foreign policy. White Core America will build more aircraft carriers and submarines and ships and satellites as part of the WCA jobs program. White Core America will redeploy the US military away from the Third World ratholes and focus on pipeline disruption and tanker sinking and other things. Germany and Japan and South Korea and Australia and Italy will get a nuclear deterrent and going away parties for all US troops currently stationed on their territory.

    It is long past time to remove the hostile JEW/WASP ruling class from power in the American Empire and the USA.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

  17. Gman says:
    @A123

    Yeah following the Hillary comments, I really like Tulsi and made a donation to her campaign

    The only negative of the Hillary comments is that the likes of Neera Tanden et al are promoting (and encouraging people to donate to) Tulsi’s primary challenger.

    So I hate to be annoying but please consider a donation at https://www.tulsi2020.com/

    Her fundraising numbers were mediocre in 3Q (about $3 million I believe) so she kinds of need it

  18. OT: Canadian election last night.

    Cuckservatives, led by a cuck lost to Trudeau again. But Trudeau was reduced to a minority government. Luckily for him, he will probably form a coalition with the more leftist NDP under Jagmeet Singh.

    We will likely get to see our first taste of brown man action as a leader 🙂

    • Replies: @Hail
  19. BB753 says:
    @A123

    Thanks! Any chance he’s going to be metooed during the campaign?

    • Replies: @A123
  20. Hail says: • Website
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    What are your thoughts on the Bloc Quebecois result? And on the 2020s/2030s prospects for the Quebecers to “vote their way out of” a Canada crammed full of immigrants? It may be a precedent for the US yet.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  21. @Arclight

    Turnout will likely be down across the board compared to 2016, so it really comes down to whether Trump or his opponent gets the worst of that.

    I think the big story will be how quickly voters jump to the Green Party and the White Core America political party once Biden or Warren locks down the Democrat Party presidential nomination. I’m assuming the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY advantage currently enjoyed by Biden stays with him. A Biden or Warren Democrat Party nomination for president — or the assumption of same during the primary voting season — will cause a massive voter horde to swell the support for the GREEN PARTY.

    Trump and the Republican Party globalizer treasonites — treasonously led by Mike Lee and Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell and others — will drive decent and honorable White voters to the patriotic new political party called WHITE CORE AMERICA.

    Turnout will be tremendous, but it will be because voters have four choices instead of two to best represent their interests. I’ve not mentioned the Libertarian louts or the treasonous sleazebag DEEP STATE louts such as Evan McMullin, but they’ll be in the electoral mix as well.

    Mitch McConnell voted for Ronald Reagan’s 1986 AMNESTY for illegal alien INVADERS and Lindsey Graham voted to give amnesty to upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in 2013. South Carolina treasonite Lindsey Graham — who puts the interests of Israel ahead of the interests of the USA — also said he voted for Evan McMullin instead of Trump in 2016.

    White Core America Immigration Policy:

    IMMIGRATION MORATORIUM NOW!

    DEPORT ALL ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS NOW!

    ABOLISH REFUGEE OVERLOAD NOW!

    STOP THE ASYLUM SEEKER SCAM NOW!

    White Core America Rising!

  22. @Hail

    Nah they will never leave. They get billions of dollars from Alberta in transfer payments every year. Furthermore, they are allowed to be nationalist and racist, in exchange they stay in Canada. The last true protected white class, they are treated as an “oppressed minority” by Canada. Affirmative action, special cultural programs, kid gloves, etc.

    More interesting is Alberta. There are rumblings of separatism there. They are in a country which refuses to let them develop their own economy.

    They are furious there, right now. If there is a serious separatist leader that comes along, it will light a huge flame.

    If Alberta leaves, Quebec is SOL.

    Honestly, though. Canadians are so pathetically cucked that I don’t really care.

    Populist Max Bernier received only 1.6% of the vote.

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Matra
    , @Audacious Epigone
  23. A123 says:
    @BB753

    Any chance he’s going to be metooed during the campaign?

    Biden? How could you suggest such a thing?

    Anything involving Biden will involve a number larger that two…. Is the there such a thing as me-Four or a me-Five? Inquiring minds want to know.

    PEACE 😇

  24. @Charles Pewitt

    I appreciate your enthusiasm, but there is little historical statistical evidence that third party presidential candidates increase turnout.

    The chart in the middle of this page shows the turnout figures:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

    While the Perot 1992 run appeared to increase turnout, his 1996 run did not affect it at all.

    The John Anderson 1980 run had no effect.

    You can look at the numbers and do additional analysis if you wish.

  25. Jay Fink says:
    @A123

    I figured loyalty was the #1 reason. Also blacks are politically more moderate, especially on social issues, than many of Biden’s rivals. I wonder if most blacks are even aware of this though? Do they ever have the thought that Biden is a good fit for them ideologically while other candidates such as Warren are too far left? Do they ever think that the party is becoming too radical when all they want is a mainstream middle of the road Democrat? I know some black pastors have spoken against gay marriage but I would guess most rank and file black voters never think too hard about any of this.

  26. neutral says:

    There is still the problem with his dementia, this is clearly not going to get better. But on the other hand the US gerontocracy will have the full support of the mass media, so who America could end up with a Yeltsin type leadership.

  27. Lot says:
    @Hail

    If LGBs are 4% of the adult pop, but heavily democrat, and also more politically engaged, they could easily be 9% of Dem primary voters and 10%+ in caucus states.

    Still less important than blacks of course, but not nothing either.

    As I mentioned, I shorted him at 5 along with Yang as another joke candidate, then covered at 9 to 10 because of his fundraising and debate performance. He’s now 18, so glad I accepted a small loss.

    Biden and Bernie have loyal bases. But PB will gain stature as the joke candidates are removed from the debates, and had an outside chance of killing it against the 3 geezers. And YassQueen will probably pummel the geezers too as a Hail Mary. But she causes damage with her attacks while making herself look bad.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Audacious Epigone
  28. Lot says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    “ They get billions of dollars from Alberta in transfer payments every year. ”

    Money’s not everything.

    And an independent Quebec can avoid subsidizing Canada’s military, and become a tax haven and location for corporate HQs and regional HQs like Ireland is in Europe.

    Smaller and more homogeneous nations I think are good for opposing third world migration.

    Classic example is Scotland: constantly voting for hard left open borders parties and against Brexit, but then not actually paying the price as the third worlders much prefer settling in England. Scotland leaving means a more anti-migration England and the Scotch paying the price if they continue to vote for third world migration.

  29. Annie is talking Epigone’s political dissolution language.

    If at first you don’t secede, try — try again!

    Ann Coulter is ready to fire on Fort Sumter.

    You may fire when you’re ready, Miss Coulter!

    Damn the globalizer jurisdictions! Full secessionary dissolution ahead!

    • Replies: @Thomm
    , @Audacious Epigone
  30. Hail says: • Website
    @Lot

    A recent poll by SurveyUSA (n=1,071) has it that 16% of Likely D Primary Voters are from “LGBTQ Households,” and they have the following D-field support split as of mid-October 2019:

    People in ‘LGBTQ Households’ (n=172)
    – Biden 23%
    – Warren 24%
    – Sanders 27%
    – Harris 4%
    – Buttigieg 9%

    People in ‘non-LGBTQ Households’
    – Biden 35%
    – Warren 21%
    – Sanders 15%
    – Harris 8%
    – Buttigieg 5%

    This poll also found Buttigieg support strongest among those age 65+ (10%), and weakest among those 35 and under (3%), which is a surprising result if true.

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @Justvisiting
  31. Rosie says:
    @Hail

    I find these results very surprising. If accurate, they suggest that these voters are thinking about bread-and-butter rather than identity issues. I’d have expected virtue signalling and a lack of solidarity with the WWC to favor Harris.

  32. @Hail

    16% of Likely D Primary Voters are from “LGBTQ Households

    This is an _amazing_ number, _very_ hard to believe.

    The national number of all people in the US is 4.5%:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lgbt/some-4-5-percent-of-u-s-adults-identify-as-lgbt-study-idUSKCN1QM2L6

    and they are “younger and poorer” than average.

    “Younger and poorer” folks just do not turn out very well in primaries.

    My estimate would be 7-8% LGBTQ turnout in Dem primaries–max–could be 5-6%.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  33. Sincere question

    Unless betting in the prediction markets, what is the reason to care about the horse race on the dem side?

    Tulsi and Yang have no shot, and all the other candidates would have functionally indistinguishable governments if they win.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  34. Matra says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    More interesting is Alberta. There are rumblings of separatism there. They are in a country which refuses to let them develop their own economy.

    They are furious there, right now. If there is a serious separatist leader that comes along, it will light a huge flame.

    Albertans will huff and puff then vote for a submissive Tory as usual.

  35. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Justvisiting

    16% of Likely D Primary Voters are from “LGBTQ Households

    This is an _amazing_ number, _very_ hard to believe.

    Indeed. The number probably includes lots of “LGBTQ allies” who consider that makes them honorary LGBTQs. And lots of Woke folks who somehow have convinced themselves that they can’t possibly be evil boring cishets because being cishet is pretty close to being a Nazi, and they make sure they see every pro-LGBTQ Hollywood movie and they always retweet proLGBTQ tweets so that pretty much makes them LGBTQ.

    In other words, lots of wannabe LGBTQs.

    • Replies: @Hail
  36. Hail says: • Website
    @dfordoom

    If the 16% finding is methodologically sound, your comments, dfordoom, I think probably explain most of it.

    Some is explained by the fact that Likely D Primary Voters are indeed going to include a lot more Gays etc. than the general pop., roughly as follows:

    3% LGBT

    25% Likely D Primary Voters
    25% Likely R Primary Voters
    50% People who do not vote in primaries

    In the extreme case, say all LGBTQs are Likely D Primary Voters. It’d be: 3 / 25 = 12%.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  37. @Hail

    Voting turnout in primaries is a _lot_ lower than your figures.

    This article discusses some data: https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/primaries/voter-participation-in-presidential-primaries-and-caucuses/

    Mass media propaganda tries to pretend there is much larger voter participation than there is–the self-appointed “opinion leaders” don’t like to admit that most Americans don’t give a f&^% and are just busy living their own lives.

    I start laughing whenever the mass media types go into their usual refrain: “There is going to be very high turnout this year…..” Yeah, right.

    • Replies: @Hail
  38. Hail says: • Website
    @Justvisiting

    Thank you for that info —

    The 2004 election also established a record low for turnout in a contested Democratic race — 11.4%.”

    In 2008, the average state turnout rate for Republicans during the nominating contests was 11.1%, “about the same as the GOP average since 1984,

    So the true numbers look like,

    – 40%+ never vote at all
    – 30% will vote in general elections but not in primaries
    – <15% will vote in R primaries (if contested)
    – <15% will vote in D primaries (if contested)

    • Replies: @Hail
  39. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    Something online says the highest D primary turnout ever was 2008 Hillary vs. Obama (19.5%), with other D primaries in the 1990s and 2000s much lower.

    The highest for the R team looks like it was Trump 2016 (15%).

    Hillary vs. Bernie in 2016 also took in 15%.

    So 2016 was exactly the 40-30-15-15 NeverVote-GeneralOnly-DemPrimary-RepPrimary split, as above.

  40. @Hail

    If Obama endorses her. But that won’t happen until the general, and it’s going to be one hell of a coup if she is able to win the Dem nomination outright with both Sanders staying in for the duration and without stealing the black vote from Biden. PredictIt should open up a market on a contested convention (or second round voting or whatever they call it). It’s a real possibility.

  41. @Hail

    Of the top tier candidates, he’d be my preference as president. But while I think it much less likely than the recent conventional wisdom, a Trump-Warren match up would be the best chance for Republicans to retain the White House.

  42. @gman

    I’m working through comments in order. Great minds and all that!

    If the popular vote breaks down 1) Biden, 2) Warren, 3) Sanders+, the most obvious is fairly straightforward–a Biden/Warren ticket. If Warren is tops, though, does Biden just get pushed aside? Maybe so if he is able to get enough neo-liberal concessions out of Warren to go along with it. She’s always been happy to make those concessions, so then maybe we get Warren/Abrams (or Warren/Patrick).

    Beyond that, speculation is hard. Would Perez throw it to one of the other candidates who failed in the primaries (ie Harris or Klobuchar)? Tough to imagine something so demoralizing. But who do they draft from the outside? Michelle Obama?

  43. @A123

    He was Obama’s loyal lieutenant and there are no other legitimately black candidates for it to go to. I thought Harris would be able to wrestle the crown away from him for herself but she hasn’t been able to.

  44. @Charles Pewitt

    Um, for voters to flock to such a party it will have to go through the formality of coming into existence, won’t it?

    And they won’t flock to it. The PPC, losing its only seat, is your ceiling in 2020.

  45. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    The Alberta numbers, at something like 70% conservative, 15% liberal (going off memory), is really quite astounding from an American perspective. There is no state that comes anywhere close to being that red (or blue as I think is the case in Canada and was historically the case here until 2000) in the US.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @dfordoom
  46. @Lot

    Andrew Yang is way more interesting to listen to than Buttigieg. If the field narrows to the three geezers and the two of them–something that the fundraising structure makes possible–I think Yang will be the more likely surprise than Buttigieg.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  47. @Charles Pewitt

    If at first you don’t secede, try — try again!

    Ha, very clever.

  48. @Not My Economy

    The cultural and demographic dynamics surrounding it are interesting.

    Yang is a long shot, but he has a chance.

  49. AP says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    That’s because most US states are diverse. Wyoming gave Trump 67%. If the deep south were all white it would have such numbers too.

    • Agree: Hail
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  50. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    The Alberta numbers, at something like 70% conservative, 15% liberal (going off memory), is really quite astounding from an American perspective.

    How conservative are those Canadian conservatives? I’m guessing they’re basically liberals, just like conservatives everywhere else.

  51. This is great news for Trump.

    Biden has quite a few skeletons in his closet. I don’t see him winning against Trump. He’ll have persistent aura of corruption circling around him just like Hillary.

  52. @Audacious Epigone

    I’ll guess that Yang will be one of the last 4 candidates competing in the final Dem primaries, and will continue to improve his support. Deservedly so, compared to the rest of that crew.

    But he doesn’t have a sufficiently large demographic base in almost any State (people ostensibly inclined to vote for him in block-like numbers on racial, ethnic, or religious grounds). And to the extent that looks matter, he’s kind of a funny—looking guy, no?

    Wouldn’t mind seeing a republican president (with dem Congress, ha) who cuts both military and domestic spending and uses the money to help fund a UBI. We couldn’t afford Yang’s irresponsible ideas on other issues — letting 16-year-olds vote, forcing taxpayers to provide medical care and insurance to illegal aliens, refusing to secure the border, and much else — but he might be a good guy to appoint as head of the UBI programs. Get him some non-lefty advisors and staff and require major domestic spending cuts, along with the military cuts, to build up revenue for a UBI.

    But any Congress that would be likely to enact Yang’s signature idea, the UBI, would be Democrat and very unlikely to make adequate cuts in existing fed gov non-military spending, as would be required to offer a UBI without taking on yet more debt or having an onerous VAT.

    Yang could also call for a hefty federal excise tax on cash remittances to recipients abroad. The $150-200 billion that could be generated each year would chip in towards the cost of a UBI. That’s a tax that would be paid very disproportionately by people who are not US Citizens. Let illegal aliens and other noncitizens pay us for a change. But we’d need a nationalist president for something like that, not yang.

    Another idea that Yang might actually favor for new fed tax revenue that doesn’t affect the great majority of Americans: legalize marijuana federally and levy an excise tax. Another several hundred billion dollars per year there for the UBI after it Ramps up.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Reg Cæsar
  53. Hail says: • Website
    @RadicalCenter

    I’ll guess that Yang will be one of the last 4 candidates competing in the final Dem primaries

    If you mean competing seriously, he’ll have to start upward movement pretty soon.

    RCP has Yang today at 2.5%. I believe his best-ever poll is one or two cases of 5% of the dozens and dozens of polls conducted.

    The Iowa Caucus is Feb. 3, 2020, so the immediate run-up thereto is now under three months away. Warren looks likely to be able to claim victory in Iowa by coming in first (or a strong second at worst), and Buttigieg looking like a strong third (behind Biden and Warren). Yang probably won’t do well in Iowa. I know Iowa somewhat and I don’t think he’d be able to connect anything like authentically.

    ____________

    RealClearPolitics national polling average for Oct. 24:

    First Tier
    – Biden 27%
    – Warren 22%
    – Sanders 17%

    Second Tier
    – Buttigieg 7%
    – Harris 5%

    Third Tier
    – Yang 2.5%
    – Beto 2.5%
    – Klobuchar 2%
    – Booker 2%
    – Gabbard, Steyer, Castro, Bennett, Ryan: 1% each

    Unknown support level (hypothetical)
    – Hillary Clinton (an aide recently suggested she might run) — note to AE: If you can find data on Hillary 2020 support/prospects, maybe worth a post about now.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  54. @Hail

    Nor by Klobuchar, an otherwise-plausible second-tier candidate who has laughably few nonwhite supporters from the looks of that data.

    Or white ones outside of her own state. Helped there by the fact her father was (is?) a popular columnist for the biggest local newspaper.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Klobuchar

    What with Melania in the White House, she can’t even count on the Slovenian vote.

    • Replies: @Hail
  55. @RadicalCenter

    block-like numbers

    Which are substantially smaller than the bloc-like numbers he needs.

    https://current360.com/research-101-census-tracts-vs-census-block-groups/

  56. Is there any way Biden can overcome his problems with senility and Hunter’s various adventures to get the nomination? I would think either of those problems would make it very tough for him, but both???

    The results from Hunter’s paternity test are supposed to come out in about a week. I’ll be surprised if Hunter’s not the baby-daddy. It won’t be as damaging to Joe as all the corruption stuff, but it’s entertaining to see that Hunter found yet another way to be a scoundrel.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-arkansas-paternity-test
    QUOTE:
    Attorneys for Biden, 49, wrote in a motion that they expect the DNA test to be completed by Nov. 1 and that he and the child’s mother “are currently discussing protocol and procedure for administering the paternity test.”

  57. Hail says: • Website
    @Reg Cæsar

    Good point, Reg.

    It strikes me that Klobuchar could do well in Iowa. But the four Iowa polls conducted in October and released so far have her at between 1% and 4%.

    RCP Average of Iowa polls for October:

    – Warren 22.5% (trending up)
    – Biden 19% (trending down)
    – Mayor Peter 16% (trending up)
    – Bernie 15% (steady)
    – Harris 3% (support has collapsed — down from 16% [2nd place], late July and Aug.)
    – Steyer 3%
    – Klobuchar 2.5% (down from 5% in Sept.)
    – Gabbard 2%
    – Yang 2%
    – Booker 2%

  58. @AP

    The Deep South is the only place this would be the case. And would it be that lopsided among whites if there were few non-whites around?

  59. @Hail

    Her disastrous attack on Tulsi Gabbard precludes that now, doesn’t it? Even corporate media types are signalling that Clinton is deranged.

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