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If it seems like the subject is being overdone here, it’s because I think it reveals a lot about the dynamics of the Democrat electoral coalition that the corporate media doesn’t want anyone talking or thinking about.

Here are the latest Democrat primary results out of South Carolina:

A majority of the state’s Democrat primary voters are black. It was on the South Carolinian shoals that Sanders’ ship was holed below the waterline in 2016. Will Elizabeth Warren be able to successfully navigate what Sanders could not?

The poll was conducted post-UkraineGate. It doesn’t look like Big Man Biden’s alleged corrupt nepotism damaged his reputation among blacks.

On the other hand, Warren may win handily enough in Iowa and New Hampshire that she is able to pull off a minor upset in Nevada and cause Biden’s black support to crack before South Carolina, the fourth state nominating contest.

If Biden is able to win big in South Carolina, it will set up a demographically fascinating Super Tuesday. Given a South Carolina victory, Biden will certainly win Alabama, probably win Arkansas, North Carolina and Tennessee, and have a real shot in Virginia. Warren will win Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Utah, and–depending on how shambled Sanders is by then–possibly Vermont. The huge prizes of California and Texas will be up in the air.

Will the corporate media be able to avoid the blatantly obvious racial angle at that point? They largely did so in 2016 because they could. Hillary Clinton was the neo-liberal anointed one, Sanders the quixotic loser.

If the above plays out in 2020, however, Biden won’t enjoy the same corporate media edge over Warren that Clinton did over Sanders. The corporate media likes Biden less than they like Clinton and tolerate Warren more than they tolerated Sanders.

If by early March, Biden has electorally earned the position of neo-liberal black candidate and Warren the position of socialist white candidate, will Obama continue to hold his tongue?

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Race/Ethnicity • Tags: Election 2020 
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  1. indocon says:

    0% for Chasten’s husband…..LOL

  2. The next most fascinating story is Warren locking up most of the white vote: I would have thought they’d virtue-signal with Booker or Harris.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  3. Trump must be loving the prospect of a Warren nomination.

    It’s notable how he’s not saying a thing about her while he continues to pound on Joe Biden even though the conventional wisdom is that Biden is finished. Unreflective as he is, Trump instinctively realizes Warren is completely incapable of beating him on any of the things that he is naturally good at.

    And she is the worst situated Democrat candidate to go after him on racism, etc. He just laughs and mocks her for lying about being an Indian to get a job at Harvard. It’s an easy rhetorical turning of the tables that he’ll be able to use again and again. For a little eloquent variation, he could spin her “I have a plan for that” into “I have a cookbook recipe for that”.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian, A123
    • Replies: @Lot
    , @216
    , @Sid
    , @A123
  4. AP says:

    Obama’s administration and Warren had a very bad relationship:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/obama-aides-called-elizabeth-warren-sanctimonious-narcissist-2019-9

    Obama administration officials called Elizabeth Warren ‘sanctimonious’ and a ‘condescending narcissist’

    [MORE]

    In her capacity as a presidential candidate, Warren describes the Obama administration as a crucial partner in her successful bid to create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — a government watchdog agency housed within the Treasury Department which seeks to protect consumers from predatory lenders and debt collectors, among other things.

    But Politico paints a behind-the-scenes picture of Warren and her hard-hitting style as being a thorn in the side of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, National Economic Council chief Larry Summers, Obama’s top aides, and Obama himself over Warren’s sharp and vocal criticisms of the administration’s economic policies.

    At times, tensions ran so high that Obama administration aides routinely referred to Warren as a “professional critic,” “sanctimonious,” and a “condescending narcissist,” at the time Politico reported, quoting another Treasury Department aide describing Warren as “pissing in the face” of Obama’s administration.

    To this day, some former Obama staffers describe Warren as “a self-serving grandstander who cast them as villains while they were trying to save the global economy from catastrophe,” Politico’s Alex Thompson wrote.

    etc.

  5. Lot says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    I’d take Warren over Trump around 2.5:1.

    “Fake Indian!” v. “Free Healthcare by Taxing the Rich”

    I think the former is already getting old.

    By dispatching Biden, Bernie, and Kamala, she’d raise her stature and look like a winner.

    • Replies: @216
    , @Audacious Epigone
  6. Lot says:

    I sold my Warren shares foe 50, purchased at an average of 9. I think she has a better chance than Biden, but he’s only 21 now, that gap is overdone.

    I think he’ll make a comeback at some point and I can sell the 21 shares for 30-35. And maybe he will win. But AE’s scenario of Warren winning the first three and SC blacks falling in line behind the winner I think is the most likely. But we need some drama before then so Biden should make a semi-comeback.

    His new TV ad he’s spending $6 million on isn’t very good.

  7. 216 says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    He just laughs and mocks her for lying about being an Indian to get a job at Harvard

    It’s worth noting that Massachusetts voters were not persuaded by this in 2012. They thought S. Brown was being disrespectful and ignoring the real issues.

    A view of the polling shows that Brown was arguably favored to win re-election, and then threw it away by making these trivial arguments.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts

    MA, thankfully, is not all of America. But the “fake Indian” attack only works when you can trot out real Indians to call Warren a poser and a racist. The professional Indians won’t be doing that.

    The better tack is to point out that Warren is probably too eager to raise taxes on everyone, and Trump should be willing to counter-signal his own tax reform law by advocating Bannon’s 44% top rate and the elimination of carried interest.

  8. 216 says: • Website
    @Lot

    Of the Democrats running, Warren is the most normal and that can’t be underestimated to those that want greater interventionism but not full Woke. It just so happens that lots of these people inhabit the states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine and Iowa.

    • Agree: Lot, iffen
    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  9. AE focuses too much on the black/white binary, which is understandable given that racial politics in the US have not really moved on from the 1950s even as the demographics have. What are the support numbers for hispanics?

    Also LOL at Kamala failing so badly. I never watch any political debates, but I read that Harris tried her outmost at talking as black as possible in the last one. Blacks have be able to see through blatant pandering from a fake candidate. Though they will get pandered to by all of the candidates, unlike whites.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  10. @AP

    Warren’s never done much for me — lots of hype, not much substance, but if she could be described as “pissing in the face” of Obama’s administration.” then maybe there is hope for her….

  11. El Dato says:
    @AP

    Projection is a hell of a drug.

  12. Sid says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    It’s tough to assess whether Trump knows what he’s doing or is following his instinct. My guess is that he consciously recognizes Biden is his #1 threat and is doing a lot of these things on purpose. That said, a lot of his remarks, such as calling for China to investigate Biden, are self-destructive. Scott Adams and I recognize that as a joke calling attention to the absurdity of the situation, but the Woke find nothing funny. A lot of them believe Trump calling for the Russians to release Hillary’s emails was case-closed evidence of collusion.

    “If by early March, Biden has electorally earned the position of neo-liberal black candidate and Warren the position of socialist white candidate, will Obama continue to hold his tongue?”

    The sense I get is that Obama favors democratic socialism in the abstract, but he never knew how to barter hard, a key reason why he was a weak leader. By 2012, he figured he’d let demographics take their course, inexorably leading America to socialism.

    As such, I bet he sees Warren as his ideal choice, even though Biden represents how he actually governed (a neo-liberal out of resigned quiescence).

    Last thing…

    There are dissident rightists on Twitter who insist Warren is actually another reliable Establishment selection. I disagree. Wall Street in particular loathes her guts. President Trump hasn’t rocked the boat too much economically, except maybe for the trade war with China. He’s also gotten heavy donations thus far. I can easily imagine Wall Street opting for him, while the more media-conscious parts of Woke Capital still try to appeal to Warren, if only in hope she’ll go easy on them.

    Warren’s base within the Democratic Party is well-educated but not affluent SWPLs. A college professor who believes in “free healthcare” and heavy state subsidies for education. They definitely have pull and influence, but I doubt they’d be enough to beat Trump.

  13. @216

    Warren will not be able to get black turnout in PA, MI, WI–where there is a significant black vote.

    That is what doomed Hillary.

    Those are the numbers Trump sees.

    Biden, on the other hand, is considered part of the Obama team and could get significant black turnout in those states.

    The other Warren weakness is Hispanic turnout. She may perform worse than Hillary with that demographic, and the abuse of affirmative action should strike a chord there, and could be enough to bring NM, NV and CO into the Trump camp. (In MA there was no significant hispanic vote.)

    Warren has also painted herself into a corner on the Wall Street issue.

    My guess is she will whisper sweet nothings in their ear (hoping nobody finds out) and takes their money (hoping nobody finds out). Trump probably has spies on Wall Street ready to go public when this happens–and that will crush the dreams of Warren’s base (again leading to lower turnout).

    However, if she really is anti Wall Street then the money boys will inundate Trump with campaign cash–and he will bury her with mass media ad buys.

    I believe Trump is on the correct tactical track attacking Biden–Biden will be a much tougher opponent than Warren (despite all of his obvious flaws) because blacks are loyal to him and they will _not_ be moved.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @216
    , @Lot
  14. A123 says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Trump2020 must be thinking — If your opponent is willing to keep Dem voters at home on election day, don’t stand in the way.

    Wasn’t this Hillary’s game plan? Elderly, lecturing, privileged white woman berates minorities to go to the polls. Are the Dems going to select v2.0 of the messenger that lost?

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  15. neutral says:

    Why does Biden have the black vote? Is this simply because of propaganda the targets black to pick Biden, or is there a specific political stance from Biden that appeals to blacks.

  16. @neutral

    This question has been asked before here, and there are articles online where blacks are interviewed and discuss it.

    Their position is that Biden was a loyal VP to Obama and can be trusted to support black interests.

    (I am not saying I agree with their view, but that seems to be their view as they have expressed it.)

    That is why they will not be moved, because their view is based on a historical period that is what it is.

    Promises of candidates are irrelevant in their view (and they don’t trust whitey campaign promises anyway).

    • Replies: @216
  17. Will the corporate media be able to avoid the blatantly obvious racial angle at that point? They largely did so in 2016 because they could. Hillary Clinton was the neo-liberal anointed one, Sanders the quixotic loser.

    Certain portions of the corporate media have talked about the racial electoral angle in the Democrat Party presidential primary contest.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/us/politics/joe-biden-black-voters.html

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-black-voters-like-joe-biden-but-some-are-open-to-other-democrats-11569931201

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/06/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-black-voters.html

    Print and internet are certainly less propagandistically “hot” as it were in comparison to TV or radio, but the corporate media is somewhat pushing the Black voter factor in the presidential race.

    None of them are anywhere near as sophisticated and intellectually stimulating as my formulation of the Black Lady Voter phenomenon: AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY

    I had been invited to give a TED Talk lecture on the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY, but my price was deemed too high by the corporation that runs the TED Talks.

    I asked for 40 million dollars and was offered 20 million, but I said no way no how.

    We have to stay awake. We have a march to finish.

    On this Lord’s day let us say with one voice that I don’t feel no ways tired, I’ve come too far from where I started from, nobody told me that the road would be easy, I don’t believe he brought me this far to leave me.

    My AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY formulation is the best one I have seen.

    A new contender called BIDEN’S BLACK WALL has arisen from the groundling area with a loud bellow, but it is certainly too candidate specific and too specific in its time frame to challenge the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY, but using the word bellow did remind me of Maria Bello, so that’s nice.

    Mario Bello brings up the Italians and the Poles, and Pennsylvania — where Italian/Polish Bello was born — and Trumpy just said the Poles can come and go as they please without a visa, so Trumpy is thinking Poles and Pennsylvania and the Great Lakes states too. I think the visa system should be tightened up to ensure that the interests of American citizens come first, but Trumpy puts the interests of foreigners ahead of the interests of US citizens.

    Tweets from 2015:

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  18. 216 says: • Website
    @Justvisiting

    (In MA there was no significant hispanic vote.)

    That depends if we are counting Portuguese as Hispanic, there’s also a larger amount of PR in that state.

    The curious thing is that in the 2013 special election, the GOP candidate was a nominal Hispanic, but one of an atypical background (rich white Navy SEAL veteran).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts

    The most significan part of this campaign was that nobody showed up to vote, the Dem was an unliked old guy that didn’t actually live in the state, and nearly lost to a much more moderate Dem in the primary.

    Low turnout is likewise the only way that Trump can win NM and NV, if he can improve the margins with Hispanic men, and increase the turnout of men vis-a-vis women.

    Trump did better than Romney in Hispanic-hydrocarbon Southern Colorado, it was in the Denver suburbs where Romney-Clinton voters kneecapped him. CO is also mail ballots only, so Dems can cheat. (Several elections in OR and WA would have likely gone the other way if they had to vote in person)

  19. 216 says: • Website
    @Justvisiting

    Non-white Dems are also now more moderate than white Dems. It’s primarily white Dems demanding more Woke and more Green. And DSA might as well be the de-facto White Caucus (another reason why our people should join them, and not Turning Point).

    Primaries also attract an older and higher income electorate than do general elections, and the electorate (let alone the population) at large.

    So there’s lots of middle-aged and elderly non-whites that want a moderate Dem like Biden who can rally the Obama coalition. If they could get Mrs. Obama to run, they would. A moderate Hispanic would have also been appreciated, but the two Hispanic candidates went far left.

    Fmr. CO Senator and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar would have been a good bet, but he’s wooden and could never win a competitive primary, he’s also rather un-Green for a Dem.

    Labor Secretary and DNC General Secretary Tom Perez also fits the bill, though he isn’t a “moderate” except in the eyes of the Dem party. He’s also never won anything above the county-level, and is from the wrong state (MD).

  20. @Lot

    Getting old? Maybe to people like us who follow this closely.

    My guess is the majority of blacks don’t have the slightest clue about her fake racery. A majority of low information voters nationwide probably don’t.

    And it’s not so much about Trump attacking her on it, it’s the ability it provides him to diffuse and deflect from the charges of racism and misogyny that she’ll launch.

    Warren: “This president’s immigration policies are not who we are.”

    Trump: “Harvard says a Native American is who you are!”

    • Replies: @Lot
  21. Lot says:
    @Justvisiting

    If Warren gets the same share of white hispanic and black vote as Hillary she wins due to demographic change.

    I agree Biden is stronger in the general. But schoolmarmy Democrats routinely win in the midwest and Hillary lost the three key states by less than 1%. Dems also rebounded big in all three in 2018.

    Florida in 2020 will have an influx of puerto ricans plus hundreds of thousands of felons now able to vote.

  22. Lot says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    “ to diffuse and deflect from the charges of racism and misogyny“

    Will Warren be dumb enough to focus on such attacks? It is Trump that should focus on portraying Warren as a racist. Her “reparations” small business “grants not loans” plan that includes Asians and excludes whites was a big mistake. Dems didn’t even notice it, but Trump can take advantage.

    Race (ie crime, welfare, immigration, and affirmative action) is the GOP’s best issue. Free healthcare is the best for the Democrats.

    Imagine if Warren runs on expanding Medicare to 62 and cutting the premium in half. All Trump can do is try to outbid her and change the subject.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Audacious Epigone
  23. @216

    That Warren could barely win Massachusetts when her base of support within the Democrat party is quintessentially Massachusetts is another knock against her.

    A lot of low information voters don’t know anything about her being a fake Indian… yet.

    Also, 2012 really was a different cultural landscape. Democrat voters will be much more Woke-sensitive in 2020 than they were in 2012, when The Great Awokening was in its seminal stages.

    And it won’t be wise for Trump to attack her on this, only to parry her attacks on his putative racism and sexism with it. He just scoffs and dismiss them with, “She’s calling me a racist? I never pretended to be an Indian to get a better job!”

    • Replies: @216
  24. @Thulean Friend

    Hispanics and Asians vote way less than whites and blacks. That’s among eligible voters, not just an artifact of more non-citizens among the former. A lot of polls don’t even include them (this South Carolina one does not).

    Asians don’t matter in any of the early states, though with California moved into Super Tuesday this time around they may actually play some minor role in determining the Democrat nominee for once.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  25. @Audacious Epigone

    Do we know if Asians vote left because they are urban?

    I was thinking that Asians might just vote left because they are exclusively urban. How do urban whites vote? I bet just as far left wing as Asians.

    How do rural Asians vote? Seems to me they are “assimilating” well. But unfortunately they are assimilating into an anti-white, ultra urban culture. Sad.

    • Replies: @216
    , @Audacious Epigone
  26. 216 says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    The Z Man mentioned in a recent podcast how Warren is particularly attractive to a set of middle class white women. It was these voters in MA who despised the out of touch Martha Coakley in the 2010 special election, and liked Scott Brown for being this “regular working guy” moderate. Around the same time there was a major corruption scandal at the state level in MA. It also really didn’t help that the Dems had re-written the election laws in 2004 and then again in 2009.

    None of the sitting Dem Congressmen or state officers wanted to run in 2012, despite this being on paper an easy win. Nor did any Kennedy family members.

    http://archive.boston.com/lifestyle/fashion/gallery/brownjacket/

    It’s things like this that moved the needle with the moderate women that sent Brown in, and then removed him. No matter his rather humble origins, Brown is a wealthy corporate lawyer that thought attacking his opponent as an “elitist Professor” was going to work in the most academic-dependent state in the country.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts

    He just scoffs and dismiss them with, “She’s calling me a racist? I never pretended to be an Indian to get a better job!”

    https://newsmaven.io/indiancountrytoday/archive/donald-trump-and-federal-indian-policy-they-don-t-look-like-indians-to-me-5_J8sXQCPEmWqXcgAr93Ew/

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  27. 216 says: • Website
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Do we know if Asians vote left because they are urban?

    Leagcy (pre-65) Asians often assilmilated into Protestant churches, Cold War era emigres often were staunchly anti-communist.

    Asian includes both East and South, preferably we’d use “Oriental” and “Subcontinental” but those terms are evil so we can’t.

    South Asians weren’t as common prior to the 1990s.

    The main reason why Asians are left is because they aren’t Christian, and are alienated from society because of this. They take the GOP’s anti-Islamic rube bait personally, even if they are Hindus or Sikh that don’t like Muslims. Asians also buy into the education cargo cult more than any other group.

    At present, the boundary between urban and suburban has blurred; while the division with rural is stronger than ever. The issue of crime isn’t significant in suburbs any more.

    Seems to me they are “assimilating” well. But unfortunately they are assimilating into an anti-white, ultra urban culture.

    This is problem not only with Asians, but with the upper-middle class whites that go into the GOP cadre. Having the main institutions of Conservatism Inc located in bicoastal cities has led the people there to acculturate to the attitudes of the liberal majority around them. Stockholm Syndrome if you will.

    Some have mused about relocating federal agencies outside of DC. Con Inc could lead the way, by relocating the Heritage Foundation up north to Baltimore, relocating AEI to Memphis and Fox News to Buffalo.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    , @Lot
  28. anon[779] • Disclaimer says:
    @neutral

    Why does Biden have the black vote?

    Because Corn Pop.

  29. anon[779] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    It is Trump that should focus on portraying Warren as a racist.

    Sure, because “Dems R The Real Rayciss” has worked so well in the past.

  30. gman says:

    Here are the odds right now

    https://www.politicalalertengine.com/analytics/market-overview/2020-dem

    Here’s my takeaway
    >Yang at 10% is ridiculous even if his campaign is important

    But otherwise I think the markets make sense

    One key difference is that after Sanders tied in IA and won NH, the congressional black caucus (e.g. Jim Clyburn endorsement) pushed hard for Hillary. I am not sure they will do that in Warren vs. Biden matchup.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  31. @216

    For many years I was a big advocate of spreading agency HQ around the country–one benefit would be that the economic boom of big government (and the associated parasites like lobbyists and contractors) could be spread around to different regions.

    I have changed my mind.

    I want all the agencies in one place…. 🙂

  32. J1234 says:

    Biden’s Black Wall

    So Kamala’s very dramatic and very public racial rebuke of Biden early in the debates accomplished what, exactly? AE’s graph shows that the answer is pretty much “nothing,” but remember how the MSM talked and talked and talked about it at the time as if it was something really big?

    Just more evidence that the MSM is still as out of touch with the public as they were in 2016.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  33. @neutral

    Emphasizing the importance of the alpha/Big Man persona can be overdone, but it’s not irrelevant, either. Biden is surprisingly non-patronizing when he talks to and about blacks. Without looking it up, I doubt Biden has ever described himself as a “white ally” or anything dopey like that. A lot of blacks probably appreciate this.

  34. @216

    There are a lot of Cherokee, both CNO and EB who support Trump if he wants to invite any of them on the stump with him. Cherokee are likely the most offended by Warren’s lie, since she claimed to be one of them.

    I understand what you mean by the “professional indians”, almost all of whom are more likely to be democrats. There seems to be at least a few of them in every major tribe. Funny thing, though, the radicals among them seem to despise democrats and republicans equally.

    So many republicans who comment online seem to despise American indians and automatically assume that they are democrats. I know as many republican indians as I know democrat indians.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Jay Fink
  35. @neutral

    Another question that comes to mind is why is the black vote supposed to be so important? They make up about 13% of the population and a large number of them can’t or won’t vote anyway. A candidate that doesn’t try to suck up to black voters gets credit from me, and, I suspect, lots of other people as well, to judge from comments I’ve read online over the years since about ’95.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  36. Dissident says:
    @AP

    Obama administration officials called Elizabeth Warren ‘sanctimonious’ and a ‘condescending narcissist’

    Takes one to know one?

  37. @Charles Pewitt

    Wow, that is interesting that the NYT is giving it some attention. Underscores they are somewhat ambivalent Biden vs Warren, unlike in 2016 when they were in the bag for Clinton.

  38. @Lot

    Imagine if Warren runs on expanding Medicare to 62 and cutting the premium in half. All Trump can do is try to outbid her and change the subject.

    He can point out that she wants illegal aliens to be eligible for it. That is an extremely unpopular position that every single Dem candidate is on record supporting.

    • Agree: Lot
  39. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Good question. Southeast Asians do tend to be more conservative than either East Asians or South Asians, but I’m not sure how much of that has to do with community type.

  40. @216

    Trump: I think if you’ve ever been up there, you would truly say that these are not Indians. One of them was telling me his name is Chief Running Water Sitting Bull, and I said, “That’s a long name.” He said, “Well, just call me Ricky Sanders.” So this is one of the Indians.

    Bahaha!

  41. @J1234

    The latest poll has her at 3%. She is an exceptionally bad candidate. People tried to tell me that but I wouldn’t listen.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
    , @gman
    , @iffen
    , @Feryl
  42. @gman

    With four months to go, there is plenty of time for another blimp to rise before crashing and burning (ie Herman Cain in 2011). Yang hasn’t managed to be very interesting in the debates so far even though he is the only person who has the potential to actually be exciting to watch. If he’s able to figure it out, he could conceivably get into double-digits.

    I suspect he’ll end up serving as a lesser version of Ron Paul for the Democrats.

  43. @Twodees Partain

    They vote at levels nearly identical to whites by eligibility per capita (and way above Hispanics and Asians). When SES/education is adjusted for, blacks are the most dogged voters of all by a long shot.

    They do matter in the Democrat primaries, though, especially when they vote almost monolithically. If Biden is able hold his black support through the primary season, no matter what else happens (as long as Sanders stays in) it will almost certainly guarantee a contested convention (if he doesn’t win outright).

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
    , @iffen
    , @Feryl
  44. @Audacious Epigone

    How can Kamala be a bad candidate?  She had the black vote locked up!

  45. Dissident says:

    Re: Pete Buttigieg*’s 0% Black support: Has no one chastised the African-American community for such blatant homophobia?

    Remember when Bill Clinton chastised New York City voters for their “racism” of not re-electing David Dinkins as Mayor?

    [*Or “Butt-judge”, as the redoubtable Kevin Michael Grace has dubbed the proud buggering-American in the race. (Feelings are involuntary. Wrong-way entry into an exit-only orifice of elimination is a choice. (And one for which society-at-large is forced to bear hefty costs). As is basing an identity on such perversion.]

  46. gman says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    For some reason whenever I see footage/photo/video of her campaign events, they look a little funny.

    The same was true of Marco Rubio in 2016

  47. anon[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @Twodees Partain

    So many republicans who comment online seem to despise American indians

    Most people don’t know any Indians, have never even knowingly met one.
    Casino employees generally don’t count.

    • Replies: @Feryl
  48. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    She is an exceptionally bad candidate.

    She was the designated corporate candidate that was expected to be able to jazz the POC vote. When it became obvious that she couldn’t deliver elevated POC vote levels, there was no longer any reason for her existence.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @res
  49. @Audacious Epigone

    Yes, but they are still a minority of voters. No other minority is regarded as “pivotal” to elections. Could it be the way democrats count votes in predominately black cities? It seems that the way it’s done is to come up with a number representing the total black population and multiplying it by 1.5 then reporting that figure as the vote count.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Feryl
  50. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    When SES/education is adjusted for, blacks are the most dogged voters of all by a long shot.

    If this is true, why do the courts require a 55-60% black majority in gerrymandered districts drawn to be safe black districts?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  51. res says:
    @iffen

    there was no longer any reason for her existence.

    I still wonder if Kamala will end up as a VP possibility. Either for real or just “seriously considered” as a sop to POC. Just having her appear as a serious presidential candidate probably serves that role as well.

  52. res says:
    @Twodees Partain

    Could it be the way democrats count votes in predominately black cities?

    This might be part of it, but I think it is mostly due to their role in the Democratic primaries. 2016 serves as a good example.

    Another important point is the tendency of blacks to vote in lockstep with their leaders. Those leaders can deliver votes wholesale.

  53. @res

    Another important point is the tendency of blacks to vote in lockstep with their leaders. Those leaders can deliver votes wholesale.

    Deliver is the key word. They can deliver absentee ballots (that they fill out), they can deliver the votes of dead people (never removed from the rolls).

    In the bad neighborhoods whitey is not allowed near the vote counting areas.

    One recent example of the absentee ballot trick: http://connecticut.news12.com/story/41132143/voters-testify-that-election-fraud-occurred-in-bridgeport-mayoral-race

    • Agree: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @Dissident
    , @res
  54. Warren has a good chance in North Carolina and Virginia. College educated whites where a large group in both

  55. Dissident says:
    @Justvisiting

    Deliver is the key word. They can deliver absentee ballots (that they fill out), they can deliver the votes of dead people (never removed from the rolls).

    Who was it, again, who said that when he died, he wanted to be buried in Chicago, so that he could remain politically active?

    In the bad neighborhoods whitey is not allowed near the vote counting areas.

    I’m sure I’m not the only one reminded here of a certain famous quote that’s commonly attributed to Stalin…

  56. @iffen

    Not wanting to leave anything up to chance?

    Is anyone aware of data on the mean black percentage of the population in districts with black representatives?

    • Replies: @iffen
  57. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Here is a link that appears to be good information, although from 2015.

    https://ballotpedia.org/Majority-minority_districts

  58. @res

    I see. So, they are doing the old x1.5 routine with the primaries. That would be how they justify giving the nod to whoever gets it at the conventions. The whole thing is a sham, IMO. It’s accepted as conventional wisdom that a relative handful of voters must be in favor of a candidate or his/her chances at election are nil.

    13% of the population isn’t worth courting. Pretending that they are is a democrat con job that nobody else should fall for. Full disclosure: I don’t think that election results are dependent upon vote totals anyway. In other words, I think elections are fraudulently conducted and that you may as well pee in the ocean as to bother voting if you want to change government.

    Elections offer me a chance to make rude remarks about politicians, and to laugh at their pretensions. Aside from that, they have no value at all to me.

  59. Jay Fink says:
    @Twodees Partain

    I live near a large Indian reservations. I attended a Bernie Sanders rally in 2015 (for the experience of it) and he was really reaching out to Indians, had them on stage with him, credited them for being environmentalists before it was trendy, etc. A lot of Natives were in attendance and they seemed genuinely excited about him. They didn’t seem enthusiastic about Hillary and my impression is they had low voter turnout. Trump won my county by double digits despite a large Indian community and a huge Hispanic population. My guess is Bernie would have done better here.

    • Replies: @Feryl
    , @Twodees Partain
  60. Feryl says: • Website
    @Twodees Partain

    I seem to recall that an official multiplier is openly acknowledged by the Dems themselves. They literally give more voting “weight” to large urban districts. This is done, of course, to massage the egos of those who captain the urban machines. There never have really been rural or suburban machines (people are more individualistic and more difficult to organize when they are scattered about the countryside) so it’s not as if the urban machine captains have to worry about getting on anyone’s nerves. At least, that’s how these thing have worked since the industrial revolution and growing waves of immigrants (and transplanted blacks) swelled the population of urban areas.

    But it could well be that the modern white liberal group is increasingly tired of non-white centered urban machines. White conservatives, and old-school white Democrats, have of course been increasingly aware of the non-stop pandering to urban concentrated non-whites. I suspect that the dull candidates favored by the urban machines (e.g., “centrists” like Biden) will keep getting nominated until the white progressives have had enough and will become more willing to shift the balance of power toward whites and those who live outside much of modern urban America. Besides, it’s whites who realistically continue to call the shots, have the money and power, etc. It’s ludicrous to let 14% of the population, black people, many of whom are poor and/or convicted criminals, to boss everyone around. We only have this state of affairs because both white liberals and white conservatives prefer to cuck.

    • Replies: @Twodees Partain
  61. Feryl says: • Website
    @Jay Fink

    I live near a large Indian reservations. I attended a Bernie Sanders rally in 2015 (for the experience of it) and he was really reaching out to Indians, had them on stage with him, credited them for being environmentalists before it was trendy, etc. A lot of Natives were in attendance and they seemed genuinely excited about him.

    In the good old 1960’s, we had strong activist movements among not just blacks, but American Indians as well. This continued into the 1970’s, also, and we even devised an iconic Indian featured ad-campaign (“the crying Indian”) at this time too. It was really the 1980’s when status seeking caused a growing trend towards treacherous sentiment on behalf of modern invaders (e.g. immigrants), rather obviously due to the fact that said immigrants were seeking better status for themselves, even if it came at the expense of natives. 40 years later, and we now have so many immigrants clamoring to place themselves in “civil rights” discussions that it has completely over-whelmed any concern for American Indians.

    Furthermore, black Americans have become increasingly prominent in American culture, have been given “their own” middle class, and essentially dominate the urban culture of many large cities. In terms of cultural visibility (not necessarily objective measures of well-being like out of wedlock births, or propensity to commit crime), legacy blacks and immigrants have been the big winners of the last 40-50 years. Whites and Northern Amerindians have been the big losers (that’s why these two groups have had the biggest rise in suicides; around the year 2000 it was setting in that neither whites nor feather Indians were going to stop the rising cultural power of blacks and the newcomers and their alien desires).

    Bernie Sanders wants America to shift back to what it was in the 1950’s and 60’s, thus he was fairly popular with whites and Indians.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  62. Feryl says: • Website
    @anon

    Around the Mississippi river, and West of it, it’s not that hard to encounter Indians. In Minnesota, I and several of my family members attended schools that had an occasional Indian student, or did some work with them or for them. If you live in say, New Jersey, I can imagine not having much experience with Indians. But the Central and Western US, that’s another story (that’s where most of the big Indian reservations are, and sometimes Indians drift away from the reservation and live like other people do).

    • Replies: @anon
  63. Feryl says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    They vote at levels nearly identical to whites by eligibility per capita (and way above Hispanics and Asians). When SES/education is adjusted for, blacks are the most dogged voters of all by a long shot.

    Since the late 60’s, blacks have been on a path far divergent from everyone else in terms of cultural sensibilities. Their “unique” (ahem) vibe has been encouraged and pandered to by damn near everyone; Republicans who “dog whistle” will always claim they intended no such thing, and of course a fair number of white conservatives still hold out rather vain hope that racial reconciliation is possible (such whites, of course, have absolutely nothing to do with the dissident Right). Since the (modern) GOP can never really promise what many blacks want (blacks don’t care about “free enterprise zones”), that translates to: “vote Dem at a 92% rate lest America goes back to strong cultural enforcement of traditional (read: white) norms intended to restrain blacks and reassure whites”.

    Black voters punching above their economic weight makes sense, since no other voter group (not even Mexican immigrants) feels so much pressure to defend their own peculiar “way of life”. This also speaks to the incredibly entitled, almost childishly self-centered emotional affect displayed by many blacks, which is, again, distinct from how other ethnic groups act. No other group consistently acts so defensive, so quick to lash out at anyone who dares pose a real or perceived opposition to their ethnic culture. Well, OK, Muslims might eventually get that annoying if their numbers grow, but that’s not applicable to the US….Yet.

  64. Feryl says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    Kamala, essentially, was a quintessential Reaganite figure: an aggressive prosecutor who threw large numbers of the underclass behind bars. Not too different from Mitt Romney being another quintessential Reaganite archetype: the yuppie corporate raider. Biden is a spineless and generic post-Clinton Democrat, comfortably willing to “triangulate” as necessary. Biden is not as amorally ruthless as Kamala Harris or Romney. The whole premise of Clintonism is that it’s a more gentle, enlightened, more woke, variant of Reaganism. Blacks don’t want to vote for the blunt sociopathy and elitism that the Reaganite neo-libs championed. I mean, duh. BTW, this also reinforces that policy and career background do make a big difference. We don’t trust Kamala to reform the justice system in a more populist direction, when she spent much of her life racking up conviction counts to impress Boomers voters. Nobody trusted Romney to reform Wall Street when he literally made a living off of asset stripping. Aggressive pursuit of corrupt or anti-social activitites will have consequences; Romney has never out-ran his slimy Wall Street past, and Kamala will likely never bury her role in America’s post-Reagan police state.

    BTW, Tulsi was justly highlighted for executing a political strip-sack of Harris. Tulsi said, in effect, “do you really think that someone who put thousands of underclass people behind bars for lengthy sentences, often for less than severe crimes, has any right to call themselves a wholesome reformer, or a champion of the general public”?

    • Replies: @anon
  65. anon[592] • Disclaimer says:
    @Feryl

    Around the Mississippi river, and West of it, it’s not that hard to encounter Indians.

    Cool. Most people don’t live there. Therefore most people have not met an Indian in person.

  66. anon[592] • Disclaimer says:
    @Feryl

    Kamala, essentially, was a quintessential Reaganite figure: an aggressive prosecutor who threw large numbers of the underclass behind bars.

    Lol. How did she get her start in politics?

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Feryl
  67. Jay Fink says:
    @Feryl

    I mentioned there are both large American Indian and Mexican populations where I live (in central WA State). These two groups don’t interact with each other much. My observations are that it’s the Indians who resent and dislike the Mexicans, not the other way around (Mexicans seem oblivious to Indians). Interestingly the Indians here are friendly to whites and seem to like and relate to them, I would guess it wasn’t always that way but it is now.

  68. @Feryl

    Yes, that’s food for thought indeed. Accepting the “black vote is essential” fallacy just perpetuates the votescam itself. The term “votescam” seems to me to have originated in the work of two brothers who were themselves democrat activists. I read their book years ago and a lot of it fit with my own observations.

  69. @Jay Fink

    One thing that I keep in mind is that pandering to indians by political candidates is mostly done purely to influence white liberal voters. Indian nations are not social clubs and politicians seem to have never realized that.

    In practice, politicians view tribal sovereignty as it suits them. Sometimes they are sovereign, sometimes they are just dependent, according to what view will justify what a politician wants to accomplish for his own interests.

  70. res says:
    @Justvisiting

    I think there are both legitimate and illegitimate methods of vote delivery active here. You describe the latter, the former takes the form of various “big men” (e.g. preachers) in the black community telling people how to vote–and those people listening.

    The interesting question is the relative magnitude of these two effects. I have no idea, but would be interested in any arguments which might move my default prior of 50/50.

    Two sample arguments.
    – The consistent uniformity of the black vote everywhere argues against cheating IMHO.
    – Various egregious examples seen over the years (e.g. 100% 2012 turnout for Obama in 59 Philadelphia voting divisions) argues for cheating IMHO.

    Link for the second: https://www.phillymag.com/news/2012/11/16/election-dead-people-vote-philadelphia/

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
  71. @res

    I agree that both effects are in play.

    What is important is that primary turnout is not that high in most states, and a few thousand votes can make a big difference in the result.

    That is why blacks have an inordinate effect on primaries in some states–and thus Biden’s black wall is real and substantial.

  72. Jay Fink says:

    Is this the first time blacks favor a different primary candidate than white elites? In 2016 the elites and blacks were on the same page favoring Hillary over Bernie. Today elite whites favor Warren.

    Maybe this happened in 1988? Jesse Jackson was exclusively popular with blacks. The difference is he didn’t appeal to anyone else while Biden also has support among older non-elite white Democrats.

  73. A123 says:
    @anon

    Lol. How did [Kamala] get her start in politics?

    Bad 592!

    You are not supposed to mention that her career started on her back under Willie Brown. (1). That is a secret !!! 😲

    ______

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/willie_brown_admits_it_kamala_harris_slept_her_way_to_the_top.html

  74. Feryl says: • Website
    @anon

    Kamala was a prosecutor in the neo-lib era (e.g., after 1981), and blacks hate anything that has any strong association with the post-Reagan police state. Why wouldn’t they? Tons of them got put behind bars. Note also that younger generations of whites, those born since the late 1950’s, are more resentful of mass incarceration than older whites. Why? Older whites and their peers didn’t do that much time behind bars, because they came of age before mass incarceration. Whereas younger whites have many horror stories of a power tripping police state that’s developed since the early 80’s.

    Kamala is absolutely radioactive to blacks and Millennials of all races. She will never be a serious candidate for president.

  75. Lot says:
    @216

    Very good analysis of Asian voting.

    Really just add up the factors and see which party gets the most points:

    Vote GOP
    Fled communism
    Live in red state white suburb
    Christian
    Private sector or law enforcement job
    Intact family with 2+ kids

    Vote Dem
    Blue state or city culturally dominated by rich liberal whites (eg Madison)
    Not Christian
    Public sector job or welfare dependence
    Broken home or DINKs who maybe have one kid after 40.

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