The Unz Review - Mobile
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersAudacious Epigone Blog
2020 Democrat Nominee
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used once per hour.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Predicting Kamala Harris years before she was recognized as a legitimate contender was fun. As she has become a top-tier candidate however, my confidence in the success of her candidacy has actually weakened rather than strengthened. It’s mostly on account of my not doing my homework earlier. When I first started making the prediction, I’d admittedly mostly just read her history, not watched her in action. Some readers tried to warn me but I waved them off. She’s exotic and there isn’t an Original Sin she doesn’t lambaste heritage America for. It was obvious she wanted to run. How could she not win if she did?

Through a combination of political flatfootedness and rhetorical overextension. Referring to America as a historical crime scene is the kind of thing an endangered pale male trying to outdo a member of the POC ascendancy should go for. When a black woman says it, though, normies get nervous.

Speaking of black, let’s get to the real reason I’m getting hot under the collar. A recurring theme here for over a decade now is how the path to the Democrat nomination goes through black primary voters. Their vote is close to monolithic, both in the primaries and in the general. Hillary beat Obama among whites and Hispanics in 2008 but he crushed her among blacks and so he got the nomination. A remarkably similar thing happened in 2016, when Sanders narrowly beat Hillary among whites but got destroyed by her among blacks. Well, here are current approval ratings among blacks for the top Democrat candidates:

The daughter of a mixed Jamaican father and a south Asian mother who is now married to a wealthy Jewish man and who grew up in Canada and has spent her adult life in a state with a relatively small and shrinking black population may not be legitimate enough for South Carolinian blacks. Who knew?

Approval ratings among Democrat pols are reliably high across the board among blacks. It’s conceivable that Harris’ resonance as “one of us” has yet to resonate with blacks, but will do so between now and South Carolina. We’re still further out from the 2020 election today than we were when Trump descended the elevator in 2015, so a lot could happen. I must admit I thought she’d be the de facto black candidate by now, though, and she’s obviously not there yet.

Additionally, Beto’s cuttlefish routine is going to fail. There will not be an American Justin Trudeau. That moment has passed. Parenthetically, he’s going to have to pull Trump’s rhetorical shiv out of his figurative rib cage:

“I think he has a lot of hand movement. I’ve never seen so much hand movement,” President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. “Is he crazy or is that just the way he acts?”

Andrew Yang’s campaign captures the existential angst of those on the left and the right who’ve come to the realization that the neo-liberal world order has no place for them, quite an accomplishment on his part given that he is very much part of that neo-liberal world order. If Trump’s 2016 candidacy was the first step towards a real political realignment, it will be by way of providing populists on the right with real buy-in into the federal government–not in a proxy role like the one the military has provided Conservatism, Inc but as a guarantor of subsistence even after the most thorough kinds of un-personings.

 
Hide 74 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. I continue to maintain that a candidate that can get a White/hispanic alliance going will win. Clinton had some of that going for her in 2008. The reason why she still lost is not because of the black vote – which Obama never worried about – but rather because there were a large number of White progressives voting for him over her.

    Since 2008, the White democratic base has become somewhat smaller but more importantly it has become much more radicalised and is less reliant on the White working class, which was Clinton’s base in 2008.

    In 2016, a lot of hay was made out of “Bernie bros” but his real weakness was his inability to solidly win the hispanic vote. Had he pulled 60-70% of that vote, along with a majority of white voters, Clinton’s dominance in the black South wouldn’t have mattered much.

    IMO, you were overreliant on the conventional narrative in 2016 that the black vote was fundamental. It was the inability of Bernie to marshal a white/hispanic alliance that did him in. Looking at the 2020 crop, it’s still too early to make any solid conclusions. Kamala is the obvious ZOG favourite and that will count in her favor. I’m skeptical about Biden. Bernie is probably too old. I think Yang is underestimated. It will be an open race, much more so than many assumed.

  2. dvorak says:

    It would be funny if Bernie’s problem with blacks had nothing to do with substance or style, but just name recognition / social proof / we don’t want nobody nobody sent.

    Basically, blacks aren’t going to trust some new guy or gal (no matter how elderly). It’s a pretty good policy. Kudos, blacks.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @(((They))) Live
  3. neutral says:

    Sticking with Kamala she is black and female, pretty much has this won already.

  4. I realise that Hillary stated she won’t run, but it would be interesting to see where predictive markets would place her against that line-up.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  5. iffen says:

    If we assume that it will go to the convention, then she will have done well enough to be a top contender with delegates. As the Manchurian candidate resources will not be a problem. If Sanders and Biden are the other two, I can’t see the convention giving the top spot to the white male and the 2nd spot to a black female. Also, as I said in an earlier comment, it appears that she may not be able to jazz the black vote in the general election as will be required.

    I also found it interesting that on the question of race instead of the Obama “we need to have this conversation” meme, she went with the Spike Lee/ TNC meme of “if I have to tell you about race you are not worth my time.”

  6. Peter F says:

    Doesn’t this poll result undermine Lee Kuan Yew’s assertion that people vote their race and not their interest?

  7. @Thulean Friend

    That California has moved its primary up and so now matters makes that striven-for white-Hispanic alliance even more important.

    Kamala’s path is probably something like finishing 3rd or 4th in Iowa and in New Hampshire, with at least low double-digit percentages so there isn’t a narrative about she is an also-ran like Julian Castro will be by then. Then she wins Nevada and South Carolina and is set up for the first Super Tuesday, which now includes California a state that when she wins it will virtually guarantee her getting the most delegates that day. At that point it’ll be hers to lose.

  8. @Thulean Friend

    That the field looks to be larger than in 2008 and 2016, otoh, might work against that white-Hispanic alliance if blacks continue to vote heavily for a single chosen candidate.

  9. @The Alarmist

    When there was some seemingly real chance she might try again, her 2020 odds were about one-fifth of her will-run odds. If that held now, it’d be her at the bottom of the pile.

  10. Barham says:

    Love the colour choices for the graph bars.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  11. @iffen

    Agree if it gets to that point.

    A compromise that locks up blacks (including setting up an Obama endorsement) and neo-liberals is Biden/Harris. The socialist progs get locked out again, but they will reliably fall in line because they’ll do anything that leads to Orange Man losing.

  12. @Peter F

    Maybe, but they haven’t voted yet–and a lot of people still aren’t paying attention.

  13. I will stand by the prediction I made that Komodo Harris will struggle to secure the black vote.

    First – she looks like a black women trying to look white. In the photo of her attached to the “Who will win” graph above, she looks white at a glance.

    If she gains any traction – is it possible she might change the hue of her foundation makeup and start to adopt a hairstyle closer to that of Lori Lightfoot?:

    Second – the dorky fake white husband. Blacks aren’t big fans of dorky white guys, and I’m not sure I can count of the NOI types to remain silent in their criticism of jews in an effort to assist Harris – especially because she is not a descendant of American negro slaves.

    ^^^ not lookin’ too black…

    Which leads to third: Her Democratic Primary opponents of color (the whites ones won’t touch this) might bring up the inconvenience of her heritage, that is to say, she’s not an authentic slave descended black American. They might even bring up how she was a child of privilege. Granted it didn’t hurt Obama but he built himself a much better backdrop: dark angry black wife, mentored by angry negro reverend, and built a staff made up of former Clinton/Chicago Machine hatchet men/women, who got the media to refer to Chicago (American black mecca) as his hometown. He also kept the racial stuff to a minimum nationally to come off as a centrist uniter (he did play the race card against Hillary though; I forget exactly the issue) whereas Kamala has already gone all in on the racial grievance mongering.

    The Willie Brown stuff won’t hurt her one bit; we have had presidential candidates who are married to former presidents who likely enjoyed the wares of underage sex slaves, with barely a cocked eyebrow.

    • Replies: @sayless
  14. anon[855] • Disclaimer says:

    “I must admit I thought she’d be the de facto black candidate by now, though, and she’s obviously not there yet.”

    Obama had Michelle, which made him more authentically black to a lot of black democratic voters; she was darker than him. Both Harris and Booker have their issues with that demographic. Harris is married to white guy jew and Booker has been engulfed in marital cheating rumors with a white girl (he also comes off as potentially gay to a lot of blacks). I would still definitely vote Harris at this point for front runner; Joe Biden is a legitimate threat as he was Obama’s number 2. But I think Harris will win enough black support, although less than Obama, to carry the day. Urban liberal corporatists and Hispanics will put her over the top. The real fly in the ointment is Stacy Abrams. There is an outside chance she might get in and throw the election to Biden by taking away Harris’s “respectable” black showing.

    “IMO, you were overreliant on the conventional narrative in 2016 that the black vote was fundamental. ”

    It was fundamental. When you have a demographic that is overwhelmingly voting for a candidate, you need huge majorities of other demographics to pull it out. Sanders couldn’t manage that. It’s nearly impossible for anyone; you say that a candidate only needs “70%” of the white and Hispanic vote as if that’s easy to pull off. Sanders took on Hillary nearly one-on-one and still couldn’t pull it out. In an unusually crowded field, the black vote will be even more critical. Although, less so this election cycle if Biden wins the black vote while Harris puts up respectable numbers with that demographic while doing well in California and the rest of the West Coast.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  15. That’s a great analysis. Early on a lot of boomercon-types were snickering about how she slept her way up and how that was going to blow up in her face. I argue(d) that if anything it would be to the contrary–evidence of how women have it tougher than men and have to humiliate themselves to be given opportunities they deserve etc etc and how because she’s been through it, she knows how to fix it.

    But the racial grievance-mongering is probably too much. If she were running against a legitimately American black like Deval Patrick, maybe, but she’s the most racially exotic by default. Her best tact is to let that be implied most of the time. Instead, she seems determined to make it explicit all the time.

    • Replies: @MikeatMikedotMike
  16. anon[129] • Disclaimer says:

    “Doesn’t this poll result undermine Lee Kuan Yew’s assertion that people vote their race and not their interest?”

    Not at all. It does the opposite. Blacks voted for Obama over Hillary in 2008 because he was seen as part of their group – their racial representative; that despite the Clintons having a longer association with the black community and the two candidates having nearly identical policy views. In a complete reversal, they then voted for corporatist Hillary Clinton in 2016 – the wife of the 90s era “first black president” – over the socialist whose policies obviously would have been better for them. And this poll shows they are backing Obama’s number two, probably based purely on his association with their black representative; they aren’t yet backing the inauthentic black lady candidate who married a white guy and doesn’t live in a predominantly black area (Obama had Chicago). Biden’s views are very conventional, yet he’s just ahead of the socialist whose policies benefit blacks more. There’s also the slew of white guys who went down in 2018 primary elections to POC, some of which cannot be explained by policy differences: https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/1037492008955170817

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  17. @dvorak

    Bernie just needs to buy a white suit and change his first name to Colonel, his black voter problem will disappear in an instant

  18. Jay Fink says:

    Your continued lack of confidence in Beto is comforting to me. He still scares me though. Won’t normies love his empty “let’s stop all this hate and get along” unifying message? Especialy women, many who will vote for him because they think he’s handsome. Then again “can’t we just get along” might not play as well in the primaries (where you need to excite the base) than the general.

  19. Mitleser says:
    @Peter F

    He did not say people vote their race, but that they vote in accordance with the interest of their race and religion. That is something different.

    Mr. Lee: Why should I be against democracy? The British came here, never gave me democracy, except when they were about to leave. But I cannot run my system based on their rules. I have to amend it to fit my people’s position. In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/spiegel-interview-with-singapore-s-lee-kuan-yew-it-s-stupid-to-be-afraid-a-369128.html

    • Agree: Twinkie
  20. anon[350] • Disclaimer says:

    “Won’t normies love his empty”

    Probably a little more than 4/10 of self-identifying democrats are non-white (2013); I wouldn’t be surprised if a majority or near-majority of democrat votes in the presidential general election come from non-whites at this point. Honestly, I’m not sure there are enough normies left in the democrat party for Beto to get through the primaries.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx

    • Replies: @indocon
  21. notanon says:

    i think hispanics will see it as their turn (after Obama) so won’t vote for a black candidate

    white libs will vote for surface-safe centrist (Biden or Beta) or the most socialist (Sanders)

    i don’t think Harris or Booker are “black enough” for black voters

    so that currently points at Biden or Beta, Biden i guess for recognition but age may mean Beta catches up over the campaign

    but only by default i.e. as a result of the various blocs disliking other candidates more – which means plenty of room for wild cards…

    UBI: $1000 for everyone but $2000 for black fella as reparations but only if her can prove slave descent

    so much fun to be had

  22. Wonder if looking at state media market trends on Google search wouldn’t give us a vague reference of the progress of each candidate

    Like example is Harris running well in Rural Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina markets or is Biden or Booker or all?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  23. MBlanc46 says:

    A week in politics is a long time. And, as the immortal Yogi Berra taught us: Making predictions is tough, especially about the future. So I’m not going to be making any predictions today. I’ve figured that Harris would be the black frontrunner simply because Booker seems such an empty suit. She does look awfully nonblack in that picture, though. Even worse than Obama did. Still I figure her for the leading black. Sanders and Biden? C’mon, can a 75+ year old white guy take the Dem nomination? Never say never. Sanders got himself quite a movement in 2016. Can he reunite it? We shall see. Kirsten Gillibrand. She might be better at getting white women out than the Empress-in-Waiting was. Beto O’Rourke is mostly looking for a VP slot on a ticket headed by a nonwhite or a woman. Or maybe a Cabinet seat. Elizabeth Warren, hectoring librarian? Probably fatally damaged. She’s the butt of jokes now. Nobody ever heard of any of the rest of them. Harris, Gillibrand, and Sanders all have a legitimate shot. If they all stay in the hunt, it could be a real hair-pulling, eye-gouging affair.

  24. Hail says: • Website

    If Trump’s 2016 candidacy was the first step towards a real political realignment, it will be by way of providing populists on the right with real buy-in into the federal government–not in a proxy role like the one the military has provided Conservatism, Inc but as a guarantor of subsistence even after the most thorough kinds of un-personings.

    This last paragraph didn’t seem at first to follow from the rest of the post, but on second reading it seems to be a segue from the Andrew Yang discussion.

    Yang’s support base is, if polls are to be believed, still at 1%, implying <500,000 people are willing to cast a vote for him as of today (given that 30 million ballots were cast in 2016's D primaries; 36 million in 2008).

    Related to your point on a White-populist political opening (the best-case scenario given the failure of Donald Blormpf):

    It’s not unreasonable at all to believe that a major share of Yang’s active backers at this stage are ex-AltRight’ists. If my admittedly-methodologically-shaky estimate of circa 400,000-500,000 core AltRight activists in the USA at its peak in 2016 is correct, if even say one-in-four are actively for Yang today, that is a significant share of Yang’s critical early-game support base.

    If Yang does go anywhere, he is now inevitably tied to the ex-AltRight, a weird marriage of convenience.

    Caveat: I am not for Yang because he is so bad on immigration. And I don’t trust him. White Americans tend to be naive about East Asian intentions because of the way they present themselves — super meek and non-threatening (the knife, so to speak, is never held in full view but is there nonetheless, concealed). This is something I have seen again and again. Andrew Yang, for me, is a lot like the Overseas Chinese who take over societies and, that done, prioritize placating the problematic locals.

    • Replies: @Hail
    , @Audacious Epigone
  25. Hail says: • Website
    @Hail

    A few more thoughts on the Yang movement as a political phenomenon:

    I see five distinct wings of the Yang movement (as it exists today), and wrote a post about it in an Anatoly Karlin thread (comment-154 there). Here is the upshot:

    [The five wings of the Yang Movement]

    — 1.) ex-MAGA machiavellian (“accelerationist”) wing, who want to “destroy rather than build” with the hope conditions become more favorable for nationalism as a result of the Yang movement and/or (long shot) a Yang presidency;

    — 2.) ex-MAGA nihilist wing, who really want to grab that ((($1000))). (One wonders what the dollar-value of Judas’ 40 pieces of silver was.) Conscious self-puppetization for cash. The tragedy of this is outlined in the Anon post to which this is a reply;

    — 3.) Genuine, positive UBI supporters with no other overriding agenda for backing Yang but UBI; a mishmash of eccentrics and futurists of various types of the left, center, and right;

    — 4.) A potentially emerging Chinese/EastAsian racial wing;

    — 5.) A technocratic-elitist wing who see Yang as potentially ushering in a new era that favors them and will lead to a kind of hyper-efficient society which they would lead and which they would prefer.

    Wings 1 & 2 are those who have given up on Blormpf, Kushner, and the Gang of Snake-Oil Conmen headed (at least nominally) by Master Conman Donald Blormpf. Wing 4 will have been anti-Trump from the beginning due to his problematic associations with American nationalism and Middle America Whites, whom Asians of immigrant stock are suspicious of (as is Andrew Yang himself). Wing 5 is hard to predict because of its predilection away from politicking.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  26. Twinkie says:

    The daughter of a mixed Jamaican father and a south Asian mother who is now married to a wealthy Jewish man and who grew up in Canada and has spent her adult life in a state with a relatively small and shrinking black population may not be legitimate enough for South Carolinian blacks. Who knew?

    Contrast this to Obama (half African/half white). Instead of marrying his long-time white/Asian girlfriend (of high academic achievement and arguably a more attractive appearance), he opted for Michelle and entered Chicago politics.

    His “signals” to the blacks by the choice of spouse and location/context of profession were pretty clear. Harris? No. And she’s been shielded even more than Obama was, and I think the chance of her crumbling under pressure is higher. But there is a lot of stochastic elements in politics (as in life), so who knows?

  27. Pericles says:
    @Hail

    3.) Genuine, positive UBI supporters with no other overriding agenda for backing Yang but UBI; a mishmash of eccentrics and futurists of various types of the left, center, and right;

    Genuine, hardcore retards, in other words.

    • Replies: @notanon
  28. iffen says:

    Genuine, hardcore retards, in other words.

    Aww, hurts to the core, Pericles. I guess I’ll have to give up my opinion so as to conceal my retardedness.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  29. Arclight says:

    I still think Harris is the odds-on favorite but she has two weaknesses that will be a drag in the general:

    1) Her husband. The black base is not enthusiastic about intermarriage and this dents her credibility as ‘one of us’ and probably dampens black turnout a bit, which is a handicap in midwestern swing states. This will be studiously ignored by the media, but during the primary there will be a strong whisper campaign mounted against her by her opponents about this issue.

    2) California is basically it’s own country and her political experience and instincts are formed by its culture. She lacks the likability and comfort with ordinary people that Clinton, Bush, and Obama all had (plus they were all from interior states), and I think she will have a hard time connecting with midwestern voters.

    All that said, Florida voting to give felons the right to vote again makes that state extremely difficult terrain for the GOP going forward and Trump’s utter failure to deliver on immigration make him very vulnerable.

    If I had to live with a Democratic president it would be Yang, but he cannot get the nomination because he doesn’t possess the visceral dislike of America and most of its population required to be attractive to the Democratic base.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  30. @Audacious Epigone

    I’m assuming this was a reply to me so thanks.

    I’m not usually interested in primary or presidential debates (it’s all theater) but I am actually curious to see how well Harris handles the pressure in the primary debate.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  31. The Z Blog says: • Website

    Living in Lagos, I have observed how black women react to other black women in power. It’s not a straight race issue with them. There’s a bunch of subtle female rivalry things that play a big role. Harris ticks too many wrong boxes for most black women. Booker should be the beneficiary, but everyone knows he’s a queer as a wooden nickel. Black women have zero respect for gay black men, other than as clowns, maybe.

    There’s time for Harris to figure it out and she has Tech money behind her. I’m skeptical about Crazy Joe getting into the race. He’s really showing his age. Bernie sort of feels like the guy who was a protest candidate in a field with no one to protest and plenty of other options. The rest are midgets of various types, so Harris can still become the exotic weirdo from over the horizon that excites blacks and their Jewish landlords.

    I would not dismiss Yang as a novelty. Our side fails to grasp just how powerful TV and Hollywood tropes are on the Left. That’s their church choir. They fainted over Obama because he was the numinous negro they saw on TV. He was the blend of the Denzel Washington and Morgan Freeman. Yang looks like he stepped out of central casting, as the idealized Asian. He’s the sober minded Jackie Chan and the earnest Mr. Chow (Hangover).

    It’s also a good idea to think about what sort of lessons the Left is drawing from 2016. They were convinced Reagan was a Hollywood creation, so the lesson they learned is they needed to use their media organs to flood the zone with propaganda. The idea of “spin”, for example, started in the 1990’s by the Hollywood people hired by Team Clinton. The idea of narrative in communicating with the media was another innovation they got from Hollywood.

    This feels a lot like 1992, where the field had no one that really excited the Left. They settled on Clinton and then got excited by him. That suggests the eventual winner is one of the midgets that the smart money has yet to identify. Of course, with the way Trump is racing to become ¡Jeb!, maybe the people in charge will just stick with him. Why risk it?

  32. notanon says:
    @The Z Blog

    I would not dismiss Yang as a novelty. Our side fails to grasp just how powerful TV and Hollywood tropes are on the Left. That’s their church choir.

    i think that’s true but are the dominant forces in the media keen on high IQ candidates who aren’t sociopaths or blackmailable? they prefer the Obama/Castro/Booker (or Macron/Trudeau) type of candidate.

    otherwise yeah, in an uninspiring field there’s more chance of a wild card.

  33. notanon says:
    @Pericles

    Genuine, hardcore retards, in other words.

    spergs aren’t retards – they’re smart and generate perfectly reasonable and logical ideas which don’t take into account the human factor i.e. that the people who rule us are evil and don’t play by the same rules.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  34. Corvinus says:
    @The Z Blog

    “The idea of “spin”, for example, started in the 1990’s by the Hollywood people hired by Team Clinton.”

    Actually, the origins of “spin” began with the officials of the Nixon Administration during Watergate.

    Simply put, you are not that bright.

  35. Jay Fink says:
    @Arclight

    The irony about Florida is that the Christian right was on the side of giving felons the right to vote (and one of the reasons it won in a landslide). They got so caught up in the idea of forgiveness they never stopped to think it would hurt Republicans and issues they care about such as pro-life.

    • Replies: @216
    , @Audacious Epigone
  36. The Z Blog says: • Website
    @Corvinus

    I see you are still upset that I pointed out that Martin Luther was turd eating schizophrenic? Maybe instead of being mad at reality, you should stop worshiping a lunatic, who ate his own crap.

    As to your point, you are completely wrong, but that’s nothing new.

  37. Been thinking about this:

    Pretty soon Google will airbrush President Trump from the presidency as well.

  38. @The Z Blog

    Yeah, and as observed on Steve’s blog here, he seems to have a Tiny Duck.

  39. that sounded like the real Z-Man

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  40. @Thulean Friend

    If Bernie is “probably too old” then so is Biden, as there is only one year separating them. The fact that two VERY OLD white guys are the favorites show how bereft of ideas the party is. Given their advanced ages, I’d say there is a 50% chance that one of them will suffer a disabling stroke or heart attack before the 2020 election. People of their ages often have their driver’s licenses taken away as they are prone to driving the wrong way on highways, but I guess that wouldn’t prevent them from running the country.

    • Replies: @Feryl
  41. Corvinus says:
    @The Z Blog

    LOL, you cannot even keep your lies straight. You made the previous charge that Martin Luther was a pedophile. When directly and repeatedly asked to offer proof, you stuck out your tongue and ran away as if you were the Antifa and the Proud Boys were about to curb stomp you. You are just mad that you got your intellectual ass handed to you on your own blog on several occasions.

    Again, you are just not that bright.

  42. @iffen

    If you are talking about a Brokered Convention, history shows that to be unlikely – especially since the advent of party primaries. The last one to go beyond a first ballot was Adlai Stevenson in 1952. Parties want to avoid them like the plague as they usually wind up losing. But I’d love to see one before I die. Anything to make them a little worth watching.

    • Replies: @iffen
  43. 216 says:
    @Jay Fink

    The DeSantis campaign was a racial gaffe machine, which stripped whites of moral authority to argue against re-enfranchisement, especially when the Dem was a black socialist. The legal principle of “strict scrutiny” is a good lens to view white identity politics.

    The Florida GOP also is a bit more racially optimistic than in other states, as they seem to think that Jeb and Charie Crist (when he was a Republican) got higher than usual black support. “Education” or something.

  44. Pericles says:
    @iffen

    Don’t be sad, we all love you anyway.

  45. Pericles says:
    @notanon

    Actual spergs aren’t so smart, of course, but perhaps they next could settle on just printing more money? (Sorry, I mean clicking the money button more often. Press m for money.)

    The libertariospergs who dream about abolishing welfare with just a single stroke of UBI weren’t really paying attention while reading Human Action either. Like EITC it would become just another source of gibs.

    Furthermore, let me with didactical spergness add that UBI doesn’t work, obviously doesn’t work, and that even the limited trials of UBI (because whining) have quickly failed.

    But now that I’m done with the reasons against, hey, why not gibs for white people too. But that fits some of the other categories.

    • Replies: @notanon
  46. sayless says:
    @MikeatMikedotMike

    Also, Harris is really dislikeable. Look at some of the YouTube videos of Senator Harris in committee questioning Republican witnesses. Her arrogance is off the charts. The questions are badly formulated too—

    Because she isn’t that intelligent. When she’s caught off guard she can’t respond well. I wonder how she’d do in debate. She did sleep her way to the top, which Bill Clinton did.not do.

    Many black people don’t like her because of her record as a prosecutor, and some are annoyed about her assuming black American identity for political advancement. “She’s doing her black woman voice there.” (Laughter.)

    She needs to work on magisterial.

  47. iffen says:
    @follyofwar

    If you are talking about a Brokered Convention

    I expect that no candidate will earn a majority of delegates in the primaries and that will produce a ’68 style convention. The superdelegates can’t vote on the first round. I expect multiple candidates with extremely partisan delegate clutches that will come unhinged when the superdelegates start voting in the 2nd round.

  48. notanon says:
    @Pericles

    fair enough – i guess leaving out the human element is effectively the same as retarded.

  49. anon[413] • Disclaimer says:

    “You are just mad that you got your intellectual ass handed to you on your own blog on several occasions. Again, you are just not that bright.”

    Ironic. I can’t even begin to count the number of times I’ve humiliated you here. Care to repeat your claim that Beto is taking the democratic nomination?

  50. anon[772] • Disclaimer says:

    “Actually, the origins of “spin” began with the officials of the Nixon Administration during Watergate.”

    No, it didn’t. The modern origins of “spin” began in the private sector, specifically in regards to the tobacco and alcohol industries decades before Watergate: https://www.amazon.com/Father-Spin-Edward-Bernays-Relations/dp/0805067892

    Bill Clinton certainly perfected the idea of the spin cycle that we’re all familiar with now: https://www.amazon.com/Spin-Cycle-Clinton-Propaganda-Machine/dp/0684852314/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8

  51. anon[772] • Disclaimer says:

    “Like EITC it would become just another source of gibs.”

    UBI likely wouldn’t work in the US because it requires some accompanying fiscal restraint. I could easily imagine the qualifying age for non-citizen illegals lowered to the point where it is no longer sustainable. Authoritarian China (or Europe) possibly could make this work, but a one-party mob-ruled United States probably cannot, at least not over the long term.

  52. indocon says:

    Just when we all needed it most, “Tennessee Coates, a demonstrable dummy” (in words of one of the comments) strikes. Reading through this gibberish, it certainly looks like TNC is going all in on Kamala and reparations, look how he mentions Howard and that black sorority as proofs she is one of them.

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/ta-nehisi-coates-race-politics-2020-elections.html#comments

    I feel like this right now:

  53. indocon says:
    @anon

    The democratic nomination most likely comes down to one of Harris, Bernie, and Beto. My prediction is a unity ticket of Harris and Beto.

    As long as these 2 can keep people like TNC quiet in the election season, they will beat Trump pretty handily, actually I would not rule out Trump opting out of the election right before the convention if these 2 are nominated.

  54. If Trump’s 2016 candidacy was the first step towards a real political realignment, it will be by way of providing populists on the right with real buy-in into the federal government–not in a proxy role like the one the military has provided Conservatism, Inc but as a guarantor of subsistence even after the most thorough kinds of un-personings.

    Me: AE could you rewrite that last sentence. I’m really interested in what you have to say here but I don’t have a clue what that last sentence means.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  55. Feryl says:
    @follyofwar

    Contrary to what the Boomers would have you believe, America has been better off under GI and Silent rule. Boomers do little to offset the flaws of those generations, and introduce their own problems. Reagan and Bush 1 were pretty bad in many respects, but Boomers Clinton, Bush 2, Obama, and Trump have been off the charts awful, as they allowed the Gilded Age 2.0 to began and then intensify on their watch. In fact, the Boomers have given America it’s worst streak of presidents since, what, the Civil War era? Silents Biden and Sanders, as well as Gen-Xer Yang, could not possibly be any worse than any of the Boomer candidates running at this moment. Since the Boomers are, more than any other Western generation, economic Darwinists and cultural liberals, is it really any shock that Westerners absolutely abhor the ruling class culture that Boomers created over the last 30 years? Poverty, division, and ugliness will be the lasting legacy of Western Boomers.

  56. @Jay Fink

    The articles about how he is dripping with white privilege are already coming out. And as you say he is striking a conciliatory tone in a primary environment that wants to spill orange blood.

    If he wins the nomination, I will confess to not understanding much of anything about the current zeitgeist, but I’m pretty confident he won’t.

  57. @Jay Fink

    The articles about how he is dripping with white privilege are already coming out. And as you say he is striking a conciliatory tone in a primary environment that wants to spill orange blood.

    If he wins the nomination, I will confess to not understanding much of anything about the current zeitgeist, but I’m pretty confident he won’t.

  58. @Oblivionrecurs

    Kamala Harris v Joe Biden in Alabama/Mississippi shows Harris’ biggest search engine interest leads in:

    Merridian, Selma, and Birmingham

    60% black, 80% black, and 72% black, respectively

    Wow. That’s a random snapshot but that’s pretty telling. Boosts my confidence that Harris will end up being the ‘black candidate’ after all.

    • Replies: @iffen
  59. @Hail

    Yes, that’s what I was seguing from.

    Yang is raising a lot of money and the betting markets seem to think he has real potential. They’re all bad on immigration, but Yang (and to a lesser extent Sanders) is not explicitly anti-white, something that differentiates him from the rest of the field. We’ll see if he allows himself to fall into the SJW traps that Sanders did during the Dem debates in 2016.

    • Replies: @Feryl
  60. @The Z Blog

    Trying to explain why I think it most likely that Harris will end up as the nominee as pithily as possible, it’s a case of the one-eyed woman being queen in the land of the blind. She is going to be the POC favorite even though she ‘should’ be quite vulnerable to a more credible POC from her non-white flank. Stacy Abrams would obviously be a huge problem for Harris if she entered the race, which is why I assume Harris has done so much to court Abrams. I expect Abrams gets a plum spot in a Harris administration.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @The Z Blog
  61. @Corvinus

    To a man standing on the ground, a jetliner flying five miles overhead looks smaller than a fingernail.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  62. @Jay Fink

    Interests over principles or we get neither.

  63. @John Redcorn

    The non-libertarian elements of the right like government through proxy (police, military, etc). Now they will like it because it directly provides the gibs.

  64. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Stacy Abrams would obviously be a huge problem for Harris if she entered the race,

    bada bing, bada boom

    Harris keeps falling on her face in the unscripted appearances.

    Could the Manchurian controllers change horses?

    Well, they wouldn’t be Manchurian controllers then, they would just be regular elites, and they can and do change horses.

  65. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Boosts my confidence that Harris will end up being the ‘black candidate’ after all.

    It’s not enough to get the black vote (bloc vote as the old segregationists used to say) in the primaries. The crux is being able to jazz the POC vote in the general and so far I don’t see that in her.

  66. Corvinus says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    “To a man standing on the ground, a jetliner flying five miles overhead looks smaller than a fingernail.”

    Do I need my Alt Right decoder ring here? How many boxtops of TrumpFlakes do I need to purchase? What is the processing and handling fee involved?

    Regardless, please realize that your pal The Z Blog made quite the accusation–Martin Luther (the 95 Theses guy) was a pedophile. I asked him point blank for this sources, and he ran away like Justin Smollett. Millions of white people are Protestants and potential allies to your cause.

    Do you really believe it is wise for him to mouth off in that fashion?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  67. The Z Blog says: • Website
    @Audacious Epigone

    I was in the same camp on Harris, but I’m starting to wonder if conventional wisdom will hold. As in sports, politics is an imitation game. The Left wants “their Trump” as they define it. Harris is not that role. She’s the Star Wars prequels.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  68. @The Z Blog

    Who do you think is? Yang is only inasmuch as he’s a “political outsider”, but the comparisons stop there. He’s not urging a hostile takeover.

    Harris probably is the most pugilistic. Everything is racist, sexist, anti-semitic, homophobic, etc to her. Her speeches are chalk full of that rhetoric to an extent that even someone as jaded as I am is surprised by it.

  69. @Corvinus

    My least favorite part of reading the NT is having to go through Jesus explaining the parables. They’re quite clever and instructive but explicitly having them spelled out ruins some of that.

    Anyway, the person on the ground is so far below the plane in the sky that he can’t comprehend how much larger the plane and its horizons are than are his own.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  70. Corvinus says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    “My least favorite part of reading the NT is having to go through Jesus explaining the parables.”

    I could definitively see why considering you do not pay close attention the first time. You would think you would have learned your lesson by now. Assuredly, Matthew 12:43 applies here given your defense of your blasphemous (spoiler alert) pal. Ignore His words of wisdom at your peril.

    “Anyway, the person on the ground is so far below the plane in the sky that he can’t comprehend how much larger the plane and its horizons are than are his own.”

    I get it, already. You are not punching to the right.

  71. Feryl says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    If you’re still paying attention, what distinguishes Yang is that he’s the nerdiest major candidate since George HW Bush (who bit the bullet and raised taxes to balance the budget, not caring what it did for his image). Yang isn’t a hell-raiser or showman. He’s a throwback to the technocrats who dominated American politics in the 1940’s-early 1960’s. That’s a double edged sword; Yang would do better if more people would knock off the cultural and ethnic jihads and focus on material policy, since Yang explicitly is trying to read the world objectively, and figure out what can be done to help us. But on the plus side, Yang would defuse a lot of tension if he were president, since technocrats are not judgemental or combative, and prefer to reach compromise oriented solutions to our problems.

    Bernie is more of a rabble rouser, and the only time he ever was tongue tied was when the BLM idiots stormed the stage. Other than that, Bernie is still lobbing bombs (so far figurative) at the corrupt neo-liberal class. Unfortunately, Bernie, unlike Yang so far, has allied with too many yuppie-focused “progressives” who want to re-distribute wealth for the sake of encouraging even more people to go to college (“free” college for all). Bernie has to emphasize blue collar issues (re-industrialization, unions, attacking “free” trade, raising taxes on the super-rich to bring them to heel, etc.), not get distracted by wannabe elites who want their college debt burden to have never existed. Yang also is aware of Turchin’s elite production theory; in other words, Yang doesn’t like the modern trend, dating back 50 years, of too many people trying to be big winners at the expense of not just others, but often themselves (see: lots of people piling up high-ed debt, sky-high living costs in trendy areas, lots of people failing the bar exam after expensive and difficult studies, etc.).

Comments are closed.

Subscribe to All Audacious Epigone Comments via RSS