Upon realizing that for cost-cutting reasons there were insufficiently sized exit polling operations carried out in 19 safe states and the District of Columbia, I’d resigned myself to the actualization that it wouldn’t be possible to create hypothetical electoral maps based on select demographic characteristics for the 2012 Presidential election. Damn.
But the media consortium didn’t conduct detailed polling in the excluded states because they are among the most predictable, and as Steve Sailer has pointed out countless times, people only care about prognosticating about coin tosses. Consequently, with a couple of exceptions that will be noted below, it’s obvious how the demographic groupings considered here broke in those states.
Much is made about the gender gap in US politics. While there is a gap more than twice as wide by marital status as there is by sex, the male and female electoral maps look a lot different from one another. Various thinkers on the right have explored how female suffrage has steadily pushed the US leftward. Men and women vote similarly by ancestry, geographic position, and station in life, but the latter are shifted five or six points to the left, movement that is more than enough to tip the scales in one direction or the other in the tight national elections that have been the norm in the country for over a decade now.
First, if only women voted:
Obama wins reelection in an even more convincing fashion than was actually the case, trouncing Romney 347-185 (6 undetermined).
This time, with a little sense and no 19th Amendment:
Under this scenario, Romney wins by nearly the same margin that Obama actually won by.
During the 2008 campaign, Half Sigma doggedly complained that the Sarah Palin wing of the GOP was turning away wealthy, upper class whites who didn’t want to be associated with the instincts and concerns of ‘prole’ whites. Despite the perpetual claims of Republicans being the party of the rich, Obama beat McCain among voters making over $200,000 a year. Romney reversed that in a substantial way, swinging the $200k+ vote 16 points back in the Republican party’s favor in 2012. If an income threshold for voting existed, setting it at six figures would be more than enough to give the White House to the Republican party:
Among those making $100k+ annually, Romney obliterates Obama, 372-166. I guess that’s a silver lining for guys like HS.
We’re repeatedly told how crucial it is for the Republican party to ‘reach out’ to the one-fourth of the public that is largely hostile towards it at the expense of the nearly three-quarters of the country that more-or-less shares its values and objectives. Knowing that this guarantees the perpetual diminution of the contemporary GOP, those on the left eagerly and disingenuously urge the party to embrace this favorite tactic of the Establishment.
Pandering to and working towards increasing the size of the non-white vote has helped put the Republican party in the spot it now finds itself in, of course. As Ann Coulter puts it, “If Mitt Romney cannot win in this economy, then the tipping point has been reached. We have more takers than makers and it’s over. There is no hope.” She dances delicately around the race/ethnicity issue, but she is unique among popular pundits on the right in realizing that there is more to the makers-takers dichotomy than just W-2s.
Before heeding the Establishment’s advice and running off the electoral cliff, Republicans should consider how favorable things look for them when the white folk are asked what they think:
Even the two big blue strongholds of California and New York abandon the multiculti party as Romney–compared to Reagan by some boosters during the campaign–enjoys a Reaganesque victory, winning 470-61 (7 undecided). Upping the ante even more, some sense along with revocations of both the 15th and 19th Amendments:
Oh what hideous cartography! Romney wins the electoral college among white men 490-41 (7 undecided). Parenthetically, Rhode Island, one of the states excluded from serious exit polling this time around, gave 48% of it’s white male vote to McCain in ’08. Given that Romney garnered the support of 62% of white men to McCain’s 57%, it’s certainly conceivable that Romney won among white guys in Rhode Island this time, but without being able to definitively make that call, I gave it to Obama in the above. If Romney won it, the electoral score becomes 494-37 (7 undecided).
If the US looked like Nebraska, it wouldn’t necessarily follow that we’d have a two-party system consisting of a perpetual majority and an ever-defeated opposition. Instead, general election campaigns would be as competitive as they are today. Gauging public sentiment has come a long, long way from Dewey beats Truman, and campaigns on both sides are able to calibrate the message precisely enough to reliably get, at a minimum, say 45% of the vote. The difference would be that general elections would look like Republican primaries do now, and the typical Republican primary would resemble a debate between Sailer, Auster, Buchanan, Barone, Raimondo, and Reynolds. The demographic transformation the US is currently undergoing is driving a stake through the heart of political conservatism. Indeed, we are doomed.
With all this reclinating back towards the good ‘ole days, it feels like we’re forgetting something far more relevant for the future. How does the electoral map look when we consider non-whites exclusively? Well, despite representing the driving force behind the nation’s demographic changes, it looks exactly the same as it did in 2008. Rather than recreate it here, I’ll just ask you to take a look at the original.