It’s been a month since I predicted that Andrew Yang would be more than just a meme.
I wanted to check to see if this still holds true and that does seem to be the case.
1. He is on a steady 10% chance to take the Dem nomination at PredictIt.
2. He is getting ~3% in polls.
That might be well shy of the real “meme” candidate of the day (Buttigieg) and people with existing political capital and associated name recognition, but this is perfectly okay at this early stage of the game.
3. Much stronger support amongst younth people, e.g. 14% amongst 18-29 year olds in Nevada!
Unsurprisingly, young people want $1,000 more than older people, and spend more time on the Internet. This is part of why Yang now has the most powerful meme community after Bernie Sanders. (I am not even sure anybody will be memeing for Trump this time round).
4. Only Sanders and Buttigieg are consistently ahead of Yang in search intensity on Google Trends.
Biden surged ahead, but since that was people Googling him for his creepy videos, that’s hardly something to write home about. Beto is not even on the radar by now.
5. Subscriber counts on candidate subreddits:
- /r/SandersForPresident/ – 244,158
- /r/Pete_Buttigieg/ – 18,965
- /r/YangForPresidentHQ/ – 15,375
- /r/tulsi/ – 9,953
- /r/Beto2020/ – 9,792
- /r/ElizabethWarren/ – 3,212
- /r/Kamala/ – 1,216
Bernie Sanders, predictably, dominates. However, he has a massive head start by virtue of having been the second strongest candidate in the previous elections, having inherited his subscriber base.
Yang is the only other candidate competing head to head with Buttigieg, both having exploded out of nowhere very recently.
It would be pointless to make comparisons with Biden, who had four years of exposure as Obama’s VP. That said, I think his biggest sub, /r/BidenBro, only has just a bit more than 100,000 subscribers, which isn’t that impressive.
As a gray Establishment figurehead who doesn’t seem to do anything but utter the correct “woke” slogans (I have followed her on Twitter for a couple of months now), nobody could care less about Kamala.
5. Website visits (March 2019, SimilarWeb):
- Yang 2020: 2.68 million
- Bernie Sanders: 2.48 million
- Pete for America: 750,000
Website visits (latest USA rank, Alexa):
- Yang 2020: 3,012
- Bernie Sanders: 3,945
- Pete for America: 4,296
So he is also getting more people coming to his website than any other person, even Bernie. This is presumably explained by his extremely detailed set of policies.
I predicted in my original post that the real competition will be a threeway race between Sanders, Yang, and Harris.
Assuming Buttigieg is a temporary phenomenon, that seems to be coming along nicely.