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Russia Elections 2018: Will Putin Even Run?
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In my opinion, almost certainly yes (quantified: 90%. In line with PredictIt). Just to get that clear off the bat.

But neither is it an absolutely foregone conclusion.

For instance, see this recent “scoop” from The Independent’s Oliver Carroll:

Vladimir Putin is, sources say, tired. And he is reluctant to engage in a major national election – again. The campaign will be reduced to a bare minimum; there will be no repeat of the exhausting test of the 2011-2012 elections, when Mr Putin declared his candidacy six months early.

The reason “scoop” is in apostrophes is that Putin’s tiredness is hardly new to the Moscow rumor mill.

For instance, here is my Twitter conversation with RT’s Bryan MacDonald (posted with his permission) on this back in December 2016:

bryan-macdonald-putin-tired

And there’s still hints that Putin hasn’t yet fully made his mind up. For instance, MacDonald also noted that RBC recently reported that Putin is shifting his annual State of the Union address from December to early next year. While cautioning against reading too deeply into Kremlinological tea leaves, this does conceivably open the possibility of a sudden resignation and endorsement of a successor along the lines of what Yeltsin did with respect to Putin himself on December 31, 1999.

When I asked Bryan MacDonald to quantify his predictions a week ago, he replied: “5/1 he doesn’t run. 4/6 he’s not President in 2023.”

I should stress that MacDonald and Carroll are hardly the only people with such ideas. Another name I can cite is Artem Zagorodnov, who used to work for RBTH. Back in December 2016, he gave a speech on Russian politics for the Juneau World Affairs Council in Alaska, during the course of which he was asked a question about whether Putin would run in 2018. At the time, Zagorodnov gave this a 80% chance. More recently, I asked him again, and he has now upped it to 90%, but he thinks that there is only a 50% chance of Putin finishing his second term.

I should also note that MacDonald and Zagorodnov are (were) not familiar with each other and came to these very similar estimates independently.

Apart from his rumored fatigue, why might Putin not want to run in 2018?

1. By not running in 2018, Putin retains the option of running one more time at some later time in the future.

Originally, the Russian Constitution disallowed more than two Presidential terms, but only so long as they were consecutive; otherwise, you could serve as many terms as you wished, so long as they were broken up at least once every two terms/eight years. This enabled Putin’s controversial “castling” maneuver with Medvedev in 2011-12, which was within the letter if not the spirit of the law. But a Constitutional amendment in 2012, which also lengthened Presidential terms to six years, set an explicit maximum of two terms, consecutive or otherwise. Any further castlings have been ruled out.

Therefore, if Putin runs now, he will never be able to run for President again – even should he resign midway through his fourth term. Not unless he pushes through a Constitutional amendment. But that would mean reneging on a public commitment not to do that, which would be politically far riskier than even his old castling, which ended up in 100,o00 strong protests in Moscow during 2011-12.

2. Putin is currently at the peak of his approval.

At least so long as Putin’s personal ratings are concerned, the “Crimean Consensus” shows no signs of wearing out.

poll-putin-approval-1999-2017

Source: Levada.

But discontent is once again beginning to simmer in the margins. Overall satisfaction with domestic, social, economic, and even foreign policy has reached lows last seen in 2011, when mass protests over electoral fraud in the 2011 Duma elections flared up.

poll-russia-policy-approval

Source: VCIOM; FPRI Bear Market Brief‏.

And it is probably only a matter of time before this begins to overspill into Putin’s approval rates.

Putin assured his place in the history textbooks in 2014.

Now might be as good and stable a time to leave as any while his reserves of political capital are still maxed out.

In so doing, he also escapes the Brezhnevite “President for Life” trap, leaves on his own terms, and enjoys the rest of his life in luxury (the friends he enriched during his Presidency owe him at least that much).

3. The next six years are going to be… boring.

The next Presidential term is looking up to be one of technocratic optimization and further reforms, of privatizing an overly state-dominated economy, of trying to restore relations with the West.

Very boring. Bad for approval ratings. Not the ideal job for a “tired” populist.

Besides, any real rapprochement with the “Western partners” is inconceivable with Putin, who has become thoroughly unhandshakeworthy, still at the helm – at least formally.

Now unless a new round of military confrontations are being planned – a rather unlikely prospect, given sharply negative trends in projected military expenditure – there is a good chance that that Russia will have to confront the near total nature of its geopolitical defeat in the Ukraine, as that country economically recuperates, accelerates Ukrainization, and Russophile dreams of a “second Maidan” and Ukraine’s imminent breakup veer further and further into the realm of fantasy.

Also probably best to keep a low profile during that period.

4. It is still not too late to nominate a successor.

As it stands today, Putin will win approximately 80% of the vote (70% + 10% customary fraud), while the rest will be split about equally between Zyaganov, Zhirinovsky, and [liberal candidate].

In an experiment conducted by Levada this September, every fifth Russian said they were willing to vote for Andrey Semenov, a Presidential candidate endorsed by Putin – even though both Semenov and Putin’s endorsement were complete fictions.

This suggests that building up a successor from nothing will be a trivial task for the Kremlin. That worked with for Yeltsin’s “Family” and Putin himself in 1999-2000, and it will be even easier now, since the Kremlin now has uncontested dominance of all the major TV stations.

Finally, the specific steps that the Kremlin has been taking – for instance, changing the date of the Presidential elections to coincide with the anniversary of Crimea joining Russia, and getting Ksenia Sobchak, an airhead celebrity with a massive anti-rating, to play the role of the liberal candidate, instead of its natural leader Navalny – indicate that they were not totally sure that Putin would be running, and as such, wanted to make absolute sure that any anointed successor would get a convincing victory almost as easily as Putin.

This convincing victory is referred to as a 70/70 in Kremlin parlanace (70% turnout, 70% share of the vote).

politics-putin-dyumin

Putin going for a walk with potential successor Alexey Dyumin.

Final question: Who would be the successor?

By far the most commonly named “dark horse” candidate is Alexey Dyumin, the current governor of Tula and Putin’s former bodyguard. He personally participated in the events of 2014, and can thus be credibly portrayed as a hero of the “Crimean Spring” (its original name, the “Russian Spring,” has been airbrushed out of history, due to its nationalist connotations). As a loyal military man, basically competent but without being excessively intelligent – he graduated from a third-rate military academy – Dyumin would make a solid replacement for Putin, who would continue to wield extensive influence as some sort of “elder statesman” or “father of the nation” figure.

Meanwhile, in this scenario, Putin’s people would continue to occupy key power positions: Vyacheslav Volodin would continue looking after the Duma, Sergey Shoigu will stay on as Defense Minister, and another of Putin’s former bodyguards, Viktor Zolotov, will remain head of the 340,000 strong National Guard. This would be an additional guarantee against the successor getting too many ideas of his own.

As it happens, I suspect this basic scenario – the rudiments of which have been sketched out by politologists such as the liberal Valery Solovej and the Communist Nafik Famiev during the summer of 2017 – is ultimately likely to play out.

Probably not now, but quite possibly around 2021, or after the end of Putin’s fourth and last term.

 
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  1. 5371 says:

    Levels and projections in officially announced military spending are not a good guide even to what is actually happening now, let alone to what will happen in the future. Otherwise geopolitical predictions would be very easy.
    Also, Khokhlostan is only sinking deeper into the shit, but I have grown weary of reiterating that.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Exactly. There is nothing to stop them from expanding military spending drastically if the oil prices go up.

    Also, I don't entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine's prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from. Yes, the Ukraine will remain Bandera-occupied for the time being, but we can take solace in knowing it will never be successful ;)

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  2. @5371
    Levels and projections in officially announced military spending are not a good guide even to what is actually happening now, let alone to what will happen in the future. Otherwise geopolitical predictions would be very easy.
    Also, Khokhlostan is only sinking deeper into the shit, but I have grown weary of reiterating that.

    Exactly. There is nothing to stop them from expanding military spending drastically if the oil prices go up.

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from. Yes, the Ukraine will remain Bandera-occupied for the time being, but we can take solace in knowing it will never be successful ;)

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.
     
    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won't be "successful" on most metrics, but it almost certainly won't collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.
    , @Kimppis
    How important would an oil price hike even be for both the military budget and the overall federal budget, especially in the long-term? In rouble terms, of course. Let that meme slowly die...

    Rising oil prices would probably strengthen the rouble more or less considerably, which would partially offset any gains (again, obviously in roubles). You should not look at Russia's military budget in dollars, it's totally irrelevant. The fact is that the oil prices didn't affect the military budget massively to begin with. They're not going to do so now.

    However, I do agree (as I pointed out a few days ago) that the new spending plan should not be taken too seriously. The important variable is not the oil price, but economic growth. With their current official plans, the military's share of the GDP would rapidly decrease to totally unrealistic, western European, levels before the mid-20s.

    The plans simply don't seem to take any economic growth in to account. The numbers are unrealistically conservative. If my very simple calculations are even remotely correct, simply keeping military budget's share of the GDP at 2.5-3% would ensure a much larger defence spending than 19 trillion in 10 years, even with a modest economic growth.
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  3. As a loyal military man, basically competent but without being excessively intelligent – he graduated from a third-rate military academy – Dyumin would make a solid replacement for Putin, who would continue to wield extensive influence as some sort of “elder statesman” or “father of the nation” figure.

    Meanwhile, in this scenario, Putin’s people would continue to occupy key power positions: Vyacheslav Volodin would continue looking after the Duma, Sergey Shoigu will stay on as Defense Minister, and another of Putin’s former bodyguards, Viktor Zolotov, will remain head of the 340,000 strong National Guard. This would be an additional guarantee against the successor getting too many ideas of his own.

    Except if he’s smarter or more cunning than he lets on. Brezhnev or Sadat were thought to be lacking in own ideas and controlled by people appointed by their predecessors, but eventually managed to get rid of all of those people. OK, Brezhnev got that stroke just when he managed to get full power, but Sadat did a few interesting maneuvers.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Except if he’s smarter or more cunning than he lets on.
     
    In Japan, that is known as the Tokugawa Ieyasu strategy.
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  4. Mitleser says:

    Isn’t the problem with Dyumin that he has not much experience running a country or just a part of it?
    He has been a governor of Tula for less than two years.

    That is why this seems likely

    he was asked a question about whether Putin would run in 2018. At the time, Zagorodnov gave this a 80% chance then. More recently, I asked him again, and he has now upped it to 90%, but he thinks that there is only a 50% chance of Putin finishing his second term.

    Dyumin seems like a logical choice for a successor, but he needs more time.

    Also, no military military confrontation planned =/= trying to restore relations with the West and making concessions for the sake of it.
    After all, main weapons of the West are not the military.

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  5. Alexey Dyumin? Damn. I was rooting for Dmitry “tanks don’t need visas” Rogozin.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Why not Vladimir "Put a Russian baby in her!" Zhirinovsky?

    I found it amusing, incidentally, that La Wik specifically updated his photo to put on an unflattering photo of him. He must be really getting on some liberal nerves.

    , @5371
    If one were to go by Churkin's secret pseudonymous blog (discussed here after his untimely death a while back), Rogozin is extremely unpopular with his colleagues as a glory hound and all hat, no cattle kind of guy.
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  6. @The Big Red Scary
    Alexey Dyumin? Damn. I was rooting for Dmitry “tanks don’t need visas” Rogozin.

    Why not Vladimir “Put a Russian baby in her!” Zhirinovsky?

    I found it amusing, incidentally, that La Wik specifically updated his photo to put on an unflattering photo of him. He must be really getting on some liberal nerves.

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  7. @Felix Keverich
    Exactly. There is nothing to stop them from expanding military spending drastically if the oil prices go up.

    Also, I don't entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine's prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from. Yes, the Ukraine will remain Bandera-occupied for the time being, but we can take solace in knowing it will never be successful ;)

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.

    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won’t be “successful” on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I don't see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    Are we seeing a "brain drain" in Ukraine? If they can't keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.
    , @AP

    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range
     
    Lynn estimated 97. The 92 figure comes from the same source that placed Romania at 82, which is very unrealistic. Is there a logical reason to suppose a number that is a lot lower than that of neighboring Slavic countries Russia, Belarus, and Poland? Ukrainians have some Balkan descent which would depress their score, and Russians some Finnic which might elevate their score, but it's doubtful that the resultant difference would be dramatic. Ukrainians don't have a reputation in neighboring countries of being dumb.

    and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.
     
    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

    No, it probably won’t be “successful” on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further
     
    It's too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms
     
    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

    Also, about Ukraine's economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country). This is gone. A lot of the drop in the national per capita GDP simply reflects this loss. That is, even if there were no trade disruptions or war, if you compared Ukraine per capita GDP PPP in 2013 vs. Ukraine 2016 per capita GDP PPP but excluded the coal and steel exporting areas when formulating the latter figure, you would get a large drop in per capita GDP for Ukraine. But this doesn't mean the areas being measured in 2016 have actually gotten poorer.

    Much of the decline actually reflects the fact that poorer regions are being measured and richer ones are excluded from the figures now - and not that those remaining Ukrainian regions have gotten a lot poorer. To be sure, there has been decline in the remaining Ukrainian regions too (war and trade disruption have had an effect) and overall Ukraine-outside-Donbas is poorer now than it was in 2013- but not as much as the drop in per capita figures suggests. Indeed, some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 - so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.
    , @5371
    LOL, this is like saying a QB who has failed at 5 different NFL teams is bound to be a star eventually, because he looks good on paper and played well in college.
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  8. @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.
     
    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won't be "successful" on most metrics, but it almost certainly won't collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.

    There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

    Maybe I’m biased, but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    The Ukraine has a lot of potential as Agricolony of EUrope.
    Of course, for that you don't need many people.
    , @AP

    rapidly declining and aging population
     
    Most migration is temporary (work a few months, and return).

    Ukraine' median age is about the same as Poland's and significantly lower than western Europe's. The oldest population in Ukraine, with the least children, was Donbas, and it is gone.

    its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed
     
    Poland's GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

    Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow
     
    Russia accounted for 38% of FDI. This mostly took the form of bank racapitalization.

    but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state
     
    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D, agriculture, light industry, and pharma. Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.
    , @Philip Owen
    The EU is booming. Ukraine will get pulled by that train. Russia needs to find a friend without oil to keep up. Turkey is too close to the EU. India's interest is transactional. China has already given the cold shoulder. The next President has a political hole to dig himself out of. Japan is still an option.
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  9. @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.
     
    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won't be "successful" on most metrics, but it almost certainly won't collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.

    Are we seeing a “brain drain” in Ukraine? If they can’t keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Are we seeing a “brain drain” in Ukraine?
     
    To an extent, but I would bet that it is actually weaker than in Poland, which is in Schengen.

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea) so assuming the numbers aren't being cooked (I see no plausible way they can be) that implies emigration isn't catastrophic.

    If they can’t keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.
     
    Certainly. It's very depressed relative to what it "should be." My modest argument is that I don't see how it can become much more of a negative outlier.
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  10. Mitleser says:
    @Felix Keverich
    There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I don't see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.

    The Ukraine has a lot of potential as Agricolony of EUrope.
    Of course, for that you don’t need many people.

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    • Replies: @AP
    To quote Art Deco:

    Employment in agriculture currently accounts for 15% of the Ukraine’s workforce and has not, since 1990, accounted for more than 21% at any time. As we speak, agriculture accounts for 14% of the value added in the economy; it stood at 25% in 1990 and has been around 9% for most of the last 25 years. Industry accounts for 26% (v. 44% in 1990). Services account now for 60% (v. 30% in 1990)
     
    The current mix of agriculture, industry and services is similar to that of Argentina.

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars), pharma is doing well, etc.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Or as an agri-colony of CHINA, in time.
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  11. Aly says:

    If Putin doesn’t run in 2018 he should be replaced with someone who is competent and experienced, not just some random person witch Putin can easily control. If Putin wants to have control he should run, otherwise he should limit himself to select good successor and enjoy in pension.
    I don’t know russian political figures well, but Rogozin seems competent (and little funny).

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  12. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.
     
    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won't be "successful" on most metrics, but it almost certainly won't collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.

    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range

    Lynn estimated 97. The 92 figure comes from the same source that placed Romania at 82, which is very unrealistic. Is there a logical reason to suppose a number that is a lot lower than that of neighboring Slavic countries Russia, Belarus, and Poland? Ukrainians have some Balkan descent which would depress their score, and Russians some Finnic which might elevate their score, but it’s doubtful that the resultant difference would be dramatic. Ukrainians don’t have a reputation in neighboring countries of being dumb.

    and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

    No, it probably won’t be “successful” on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further

    It’s too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

    Also, about Ukraine’s economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country). This is gone. A lot of the drop in the national per capita GDP simply reflects this loss. That is, even if there were no trade disruptions or war, if you compared Ukraine per capita GDP PPP in 2013 vs. Ukraine 2016 per capita GDP PPP but excluded the coal and steel exporting areas when formulating the latter figure, you would get a large drop in per capita GDP for Ukraine. But this doesn’t mean the areas being measured in 2016 have actually gotten poorer.

    Much of the decline actually reflects the fact that poorer regions are being measured and richer ones are excluded from the figures now – and not that those remaining Ukrainian regions have gotten a lot poorer. To be sure, there has been decline in the remaining Ukrainian regions too (war and trade disruption have had an effect) and overall Ukraine-outside-Donbas is poorer now than it was in 2013- but not as much as the drop in per capita figures suggests. Indeed, some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 – so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    We've discussed the issue of Ukrainian IQ in prior threads. To reiterate some of my arguments:

    * Ukraine isn't in PISA, but it does considerably - as in, around 7-9 IQ points equivalent - worse than Russia on the TIMSS.
    Although TIMSS isn't a great test, it's probably pretty legitimate to compare the ex-Soviet bloc because of their legacy of a common schooling system.
    * The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia. Indeed, they are around 5 points below the Russian average, being midway between that, and the ~88 IQ DICh. This is the case in PISA, and it is even the case in the recent n=250,000 potential military recruit sample I wrote about a few days ago.
    * The fact of low performance, both now and historically: Net recipient during Soviet period (Belarus and oil-rich Russia were only net donors); read twice less than Russians; remains more corrupt than Russia, despite all the rhetoric (the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect - Tsapok, Khalaleva, etc); relatively low literacy rates in late Russian Empire.

    I don't place a lot of weight on the Ukrainian IQ tests since there's few of them, samples are very low and unrepresentative.

    However, we will have a much better idea of where things stand come December 2019.

    Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.
     
    Well, it's not like the sentiments aren't mutual.

    However, I try to deal with facts. Fact is that it's hard to see how the Ukraine can be successful given how deep it is in failure (if only relative to its current position - but I am not arguing against that).

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia)...
     
    Well yes, sure, though one year is meaningless. That said as I made clear I expect the Ukraine to grow faster than Russia due to a stronger convergence effect.

    Since I also expect Russia to grow pretty strongly in the next several years, that should translate to very good growth in the Ukraine.
    , @Gerard2


    this is hilarious...the shameless twat fresh from telling more easily disproveable lies about Ukraines extremely poor suicide rate (and probably making a million more attention-whore idiot posts taking up hours)....is back to typing more attention-whore lies!

    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).
     
    errrmm no....Guatemala ,Morocco are far more suitable. Ukraine is even more failed than Georgia and Moldova over the last 26 years you idiot. Armenia is an idiotic comparison because it has had non-existant trade with it's 2 wealthy neighbours over 25 years......(Turkey and Azerbaijian due to historical and political reasons)...despite that it is a more prosperous and stable country than Ukraine ever was. People living in the disputed ,war-region of Nagorno-Karabakh are wealthier than Ukrainians.....think about what that implies you cretinous fuckwit.

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.
     
    errmmm...Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017 you stupid moron. Russia still had growth in 2014, Ukraine more catastrophic GDP loss in 2014/2015 (but not of Oligarch's wealth)
    .This is then to go with the fact that Ukrainian 2% "growth", in a country that has experienced a double-digit recession and hasn't deindustrialised at the same rate that it has lost population...is a catastrophic failure you idiot. Russia, on the other hand is now past "break-even' stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop. It's also clear that the sole reason for even this non-existant "growth" in the "Ukraine" economy is precisely because of the upturn in the Russian economy.

    It’s too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.
     
    fantasist spamtroll retards with no functioning life other than spending hours coming up with fake information ( and who havenot actually stepped foot in Ukraine since Evromaidan and are the fuckedup relatives of POS UPA child-raping vermin)....dont' classify as "Ukrainians" who can "note their wishes"....in reality the 4% of GDP from remittances (plus the considerable more from Russian investment and joint projects) are a lifeline for the Ukrainian economy....and Russians don't want their family members to suffer you idiot.

    Also, about Ukraine’s economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country).
     
    hahaha!..another braindead comparison. Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil.....Ukraine still has high internal consumption of coal and steel you imbecile....much more than of oil- so Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot......they are directly dependent on them...and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine.Donbass is the most populous and profitable area of Ukraine you dipshit, 5 of the most populous and or economically important areas are in Novorossiya.

    some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 – so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

     

    hahahaha! Lets get this straight you time-wasting spamtroll scumbag...Ukraine will take over 10 years, probably close to 20 YEARS to get to the Yanukovich level of economy you retarded stupid cunt. There is no "better relative to Russia". Poland on the other hand is set to lose out to Russians in earnings, similar to before 2014, when in less than a decade, Russians went from earning 1/3rd of what Poles earn....to earning 20% more.
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  13. Twinkie says:

    Putin’s controversial “castling” maneuver with Medvedev

    Yeah, whatever happened to that guy?

    Read More
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  14. Twinkie says:
    @reiner Tor

    As a loyal military man, basically competent but without being excessively intelligent – he graduated from a third-rate military academy – Dyumin would make a solid replacement for Putin, who would continue to wield extensive influence as some sort of “elder statesman” or “father of the nation” figure.

    Meanwhile, in this scenario, Putin’s people would continue to occupy key power positions: Vyacheslav Volodin would continue looking after the Duma, Sergey Shoigu will stay on as Defense Minister, and another of Putin’s former bodyguards, Viktor Zolotov, will remain head of the 340,000 strong National Guard. This would be an additional guarantee against the successor getting too many ideas of his own.
     
    Except if he's smarter or more cunning than he lets on. Brezhnev or Sadat were thought to be lacking in own ideas and controlled by people appointed by their predecessors, but eventually managed to get rid of all of those people. OK, Brezhnev got that stroke just when he managed to get full power, but Sadat did a few interesting maneuvers.

    Except if he’s smarter or more cunning than he lets on.

    In Japan, that is known as the Tokugawa Ieyasu strategy.

    Read More
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  15. AP says:
    @Mitleser
    The Ukraine has a lot of potential as Agricolony of EUrope.
    Of course, for that you don't need many people.

    To quote Art Deco:

    Employment in agriculture currently accounts for 15% of the Ukraine’s workforce and has not, since 1990, accounted for more than 21% at any time. As we speak, agriculture accounts for 14% of the value added in the economy; it stood at 25% in 1990 and has been around 9% for most of the last 25 years. Industry accounts for 26% (v. 44% in 1990). Services account now for 60% (v. 30% in 1990)

    The current mix of agriculture, industry and services is similar to that of Argentina.

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars), pharma is doing well, etc.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars)
     
    Only heard of a couple of such plants. Don't think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.
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  16. Mitleser says:
    @AP
    To quote Art Deco:

    Employment in agriculture currently accounts for 15% of the Ukraine’s workforce and has not, since 1990, accounted for more than 21% at any time. As we speak, agriculture accounts for 14% of the value added in the economy; it stood at 25% in 1990 and has been around 9% for most of the last 25 years. Industry accounts for 26% (v. 44% in 1990). Services account now for 60% (v. 30% in 1990)
     
    The current mix of agriculture, industry and services is similar to that of Argentina.

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars), pharma is doing well, etc.

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars)

    Only heard of a couple of such plants. Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    I mention it a lot, but IT has a lot of jobs, is growing, and one can live much better on an IT salary in Ukraine than in many other places. Recent example:

    Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson opens R & D office in Lviv.

    https://www.dev-pro.net/blog/why-big-tech-names-have-opened-rd-facilities-in-ukraine/

    Only heard of a couple of such plants
     
    Some examples:

    Leoni:

    https://www.just-auto.com/news/leoni-opens-second-wiring-systems-plant-in-ukraine_id178896.aspx

    (their largest plant is actually in Ukraine)

    Kromberg and Schubert:

    http://en.lawyers.ua/krombergschubert-increases-the-investments-in-its-plant-in-zhitomir.html

    BASF:

    https://www.theubj.com/news/view/germanys-basf-finds-growth-in-ukraines-regions

    Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.
     
    The number of light industrial plants is growing and expanding. Much of the migration is temporary - someone working in Poland or Germany for a few months, and returning home with money. Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

    Ukraine's median age is about the same as Poland's, and slightly higher than Russia's (which probably means lower than ethnic Russia's). It is clearly lower than the EU average.
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  17. Brabantian says: • Website

    Looking forward to more coverage of independent Russian presidential candidate and glamour girl Ksenia Sobchak whom Anatoly Karlin mentions above … Ksenia seems a sweet religious girl the way she wears her Christian cross so close to her skin

    Ksenia just turned age 36 a few days ago on 5 Nov. … definitely a star of the Russian election season, she is deservedly confident she will gather the 300,000 signatures needed to be on Russia’s ballot

    Read More
    • Troll: ussr andy
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    She needs 100,000 sigs since she's getting nominated by a party.

    They'll probably register her since she has a huge anti-rating and is less dangerous than Navalny, will make for a good (clownish) liberal candidate, and she will duly get her 3%-5%.
    , @Greasy William
    5/10. Would not bang.

    Looks like she has some Jewish ancestry as well. Hmm... revised position: 4/10. Would not bang.
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  18. AP says:
    @Mitleser

    Large growth in services like outsourcing, and light industry (building electric cables for cars)
     
    Only heard of a couple of such plants. Don't think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.

    I mention it a lot, but IT has a lot of jobs, is growing, and one can live much better on an IT salary in Ukraine than in many other places. Recent example:

    Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson opens R & D office in Lviv.

    https://www.dev-pro.net/blog/why-big-tech-names-have-opened-rd-facilities-in-ukraine/

    Only heard of a couple of such plants

    Some examples:

    Leoni:

    https://www.just-auto.com/news/leoni-opens-second-wiring-systems-plant-in-ukraine_id178896.aspx

    (their largest plant is actually in Ukraine)

    Kromberg and Schubert:

    http://en.lawyers.ua/krombergschubert-increases-the-investments-in-its-plant-in-zhitomir.html

    BASF:

    https://www.theubj.com/news/view/germanys-basf-finds-growth-in-ukraines-regions

    Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.

    The number of light industrial plants is growing and expanding. Much of the migration is temporary – someone working in Poland or Germany for a few months, and returning home with money. Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

    Ukraine’s median age is about the same as Poland’s, and slightly higher than Russia’s (which probably means lower than ethnic Russia’s). It is clearly lower than the EU average.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

    I'm not happy about it, but the fertility numbers are so dire that I am tired of seeing them ignored or downplayed. As these figures show, Ukraine's population drops every day simply because there are more than one hundred more deaths than births EVERY DAY, without taking any account of net migration:

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    As the population ages further and there are ever fewer women of childbearing age, the rate of population decline will accelerate drastically.

    There will be hardly any Ukrainian people in existence soon, so there will be none to take jobs of any sort.

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  19. @AP

    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range
     
    Lynn estimated 97. The 92 figure comes from the same source that placed Romania at 82, which is very unrealistic. Is there a logical reason to suppose a number that is a lot lower than that of neighboring Slavic countries Russia, Belarus, and Poland? Ukrainians have some Balkan descent which would depress their score, and Russians some Finnic which might elevate their score, but it's doubtful that the resultant difference would be dramatic. Ukrainians don't have a reputation in neighboring countries of being dumb.

    and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.
     
    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

    No, it probably won’t be “successful” on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further
     
    It's too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms
     
    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

    Also, about Ukraine's economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country). This is gone. A lot of the drop in the national per capita GDP simply reflects this loss. That is, even if there were no trade disruptions or war, if you compared Ukraine per capita GDP PPP in 2013 vs. Ukraine 2016 per capita GDP PPP but excluded the coal and steel exporting areas when formulating the latter figure, you would get a large drop in per capita GDP for Ukraine. But this doesn't mean the areas being measured in 2016 have actually gotten poorer.

    Much of the decline actually reflects the fact that poorer regions are being measured and richer ones are excluded from the figures now - and not that those remaining Ukrainian regions have gotten a lot poorer. To be sure, there has been decline in the remaining Ukrainian regions too (war and trade disruption have had an effect) and overall Ukraine-outside-Donbas is poorer now than it was in 2013- but not as much as the drop in per capita figures suggests. Indeed, some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 - so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

    We’ve discussed the issue of Ukrainian IQ in prior threads. To reiterate some of my arguments:

    * Ukraine isn’t in PISA, but it does considerably – as in, around 7-9 IQ points equivalent – worse than Russia on the TIMSS.
    Although TIMSS isn’t a great test, it’s probably pretty legitimate to compare the ex-Soviet bloc because of their legacy of a common schooling system.
    * The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia. Indeed, they are around 5 points below the Russian average, being midway between that, and the ~88 IQ DICh. This is the case in PISA, and it is even the case in the recent n=250,000 potential military recruit sample I wrote about a few days ago.
    * The fact of low performance, both now and historically: Net recipient during Soviet period (Belarus and oil-rich Russia were only net donors); read twice less than Russians; remains more corrupt than Russia, despite all the rhetoric (the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect – Tsapok, Khalaleva, etc); relatively low literacy rates in late Russian Empire.

    I don’t place a lot of weight on the Ukrainian IQ tests since there’s few of them, samples are very low and unrepresentative.

    However, we will have a much better idea of where things stand come December 2019.

    Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    Well, it’s not like the sentiments aren’t mutual.

    However, I try to deal with facts. Fact is that it’s hard to see how the Ukraine can be successful given how deep it is in failure (if only relative to its current position – but I am not arguing against that).

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia)…

    Well yes, sure, though one year is meaningless. That said as I made clear I expect the Ukraine to grow faster than Russia due to a stronger convergence effect.

    Since I also expect Russia to grow pretty strongly in the next several years, that should translate to very good growth in the Ukraine.

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    • Replies: @AP

    The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia...the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect – Tsapok, Khalaleva
     
    Kuban is probably very similar to rural parts of Ukraine. The population is highly mixed with rural Ukrainians. I would expect Kherson, Vynnytsia, Sumy, and other rural central and eastern Ukrainan regions to have Kuban-level IQs. OTOH, Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv would be higher. Zakarpatiya and Volyn would be a little lower but they don't have a high population. Ukraine overall would therefore be higher than Kuban in IQ.

    Also - Ukrainian kids were tested a few months earlier in the school year on the TIMMS than were Russian kids, which probably accounts for a couple points.

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  20. Kimppis says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Exactly. There is nothing to stop them from expanding military spending drastically if the oil prices go up.

    Also, I don't entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine's prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from. Yes, the Ukraine will remain Bandera-occupied for the time being, but we can take solace in knowing it will never be successful ;)

    How important would an oil price hike even be for both the military budget and the overall federal budget, especially in the long-term? In rouble terms, of course. Let that meme slowly die…

    Rising oil prices would probably strengthen the rouble more or less considerably, which would partially offset any gains (again, obviously in roubles). You should not look at Russia’s military budget in dollars, it’s totally irrelevant. The fact is that the oil prices didn’t affect the military budget massively to begin with. They’re not going to do so now.

    However, I do agree (as I pointed out a few days ago) that the new spending plan should not be taken too seriously. The important variable is not the oil price, but economic growth. With their current official plans, the military’s share of the GDP would rapidly decrease to totally unrealistic, western European, levels before the mid-20s.

    The plans simply don’t seem to take any economic growth in to account. The numbers are unrealistically conservative. If my very simple calculations are even remotely correct, simply keeping military budget’s share of the GDP at 2.5-3% would ensure a much larger defence spending than 19 trillion in 10 years, even with a modest economic growth.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    As I understand it, the ~20 billion ruble figure refers just to the rearmament problem, not running military expenses as such (which will indeed rise with GDP, presumably military salaries will keep on increasing, the kontraktnik/conscript ratio will keep rising, etc).

    It does however imply a drop in R&D and especially procurement. The latter is already evident in "real life", e.g. the rapidly diminishing projections for T-14 Armata acquisitions. Remember how they wanted to have 2,300 of those machines by 2020? Well, now they're aiming for just 100. Similar story with the PAK FA. Haven't been following it closely, but as I recall, acquisition numbers for the foreseeable future are going to be almost symbolic.
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  21. Mitleser says:

    Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

    The numbers are unrealistically conservative.

    That is how the Russian government seems to work.
    Their budget is based on quite low oil prices ($40).
    Real prices are constantly higher.

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    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Exactly, forgot to mention that. The new armaments program has clearly been "invented" with a similar mindset, but it might actually be even more conservative than their recent federal budgets. The oil prices are indeed so much higher than $40 currently, that the Russian budget deficit must be very low, especially if the prices stays this "high" for some time.

    Also AP, it seems that the Russian economic growth is actually going to slightly above 2% this year. So if Ukraine really grows by 2% this year (I have no idea, don't really follow Ukraine), then it's entirely possible that Russia's economic growth in 2017 will actually be slightly higher. Not that makes a massive difference to one way or another, just pointing that out.

    , @AP

    "Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open."

    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.
     

    It depends on how much lower (salary in factory in Ukraine, vs. being a laborer in western Europe), and if it is worth the hassle of moving abroad and being apart from one's family. The plants opening up now don't have a shortage of workers.
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  22. @Daniel Chieh
    Are we seeing a "brain drain" in Ukraine? If they can't keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.

    Are we seeing a “brain drain” in Ukraine?

    To an extent, but I would bet that it is actually weaker than in Poland, which is in Schengen.

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea) so assuming the numbers aren’t being cooked (I see no plausible way they can be) that implies emigration isn’t catastrophic.

    If they can’t keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.

    Certainly. It’s very depressed relative to what it “should be.” My modest argument is that I don’t see how it can become much more of a negative outlier.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea)
     
    No longer true.

    Ukraine experiencing big drop in births, like Russia and the Baltics:

    Ukraine Jan-Aug 2017 (2016) (excluding Crimea, Donezk and Luhansk)

    Births: 228,289 (247,053) -7.6%

    Estimate for the TFR for 2017: 1.39 (1.47)
     
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143071207&postcount=5630
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  23. @Kimppis
    How important would an oil price hike even be for both the military budget and the overall federal budget, especially in the long-term? In rouble terms, of course. Let that meme slowly die...

    Rising oil prices would probably strengthen the rouble more or less considerably, which would partially offset any gains (again, obviously in roubles). You should not look at Russia's military budget in dollars, it's totally irrelevant. The fact is that the oil prices didn't affect the military budget massively to begin with. They're not going to do so now.

    However, I do agree (as I pointed out a few days ago) that the new spending plan should not be taken too seriously. The important variable is not the oil price, but economic growth. With their current official plans, the military's share of the GDP would rapidly decrease to totally unrealistic, western European, levels before the mid-20s.

    The plans simply don't seem to take any economic growth in to account. The numbers are unrealistically conservative. If my very simple calculations are even remotely correct, simply keeping military budget's share of the GDP at 2.5-3% would ensure a much larger defence spending than 19 trillion in 10 years, even with a modest economic growth.

    As I understand it, the ~20 billion ruble figure refers just to the rearmament problem, not running military expenses as such (which will indeed rise with GDP, presumably military salaries will keep on increasing, the kontraktnik/conscript ratio will keep rising, etc).

    It does however imply a drop in R&D and especially procurement. The latter is already evident in “real life”, e.g. the rapidly diminishing projections for T-14 Armata acquisitions. Remember how they wanted to have 2,300 of those machines by 2020? Well, now they’re aiming for just 100. Similar story with the PAK FA. Haven’t been following it closely, but as I recall, acquisition numbers for the foreseeable future are going to be almost symbolic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    I have to admit that I'm actually not sure, but it seems likely. They certainly seem to give more money to the military outside of the program, the process which is then announced mainly/only afterwards... That certainly happened last year, IIRC. And we are talking about tens of billions USD...

    I think they announced that the R&D spending is actually going to increase. It's true that the procurement is going to decrease, but it's partially/largely because the modernization has already been achieved (by the end of 2020).

    The procurement of 2,300 T-14s always seemed totally ridiculous, and was probably a mistranslation, or something. It never even made any sense for numerous reasons...

    1. Why did they start modernizing T-72s en masse at all, if that was going to be the case? 2,300 is an insane number by any standards. Western European powers like Germany, France and UK have only 200-300 MBTs each, the US seemingly has "only" around 2000 in proper active service (not 6000) and China has slightly less than 1,000 Type 99s.

    2. So the 2,300 figure was and is the total number of "modern" tanks in service, not only Armatas. That is pretty much exactly what they are going to achieve and it seems like an obvious explanation. That includes upgraded T-72s, and T-90s, and now they announced a modernization of some T-80s as well.

    So it's possible that the Armata program might have been slightly cut, but certainly not from 2,300 to 100. One thing to consider is that T-14 seems to be very advanced, and it's also modular, very upgradeable. Also the gap between different tank "generations" is certainly not going to shorten, so T-14 Armata is going to remain viable for a very long time (50 years even?). The US doesn't even have any plans to replace Abrams (with a totally new generation vehicle). So it's obvious T-14 is going to remain in production for a long time, even for the Russian service, probably for 2 decades, or so.

    Overall, it seems that the procurement is going to remain pretty similar to what it's now, which is pretty good. The procurement of Su-35s, Su-30SMs and Su-34 is going to continue at a roughly similar level atleast until 2025, and of course Su-57's production is going to start increasing.

    So realistically having 60-80 Su-57s by 2025, maybe 130-150 by 2030 sounds about right. The cut from 60 to 12, or whatever, is probably not going to matter that much in the end, it was always going to be a long-term program and Russia's F-22, not F-35.

    Also it seems that the procurement of ships and land equipment is going to remain at a roughly similar level as well. They are going to cut attack helicopter procurement, because it seems that that has been going particularly well. And of course less need to procure or upgrade older vehicles (T-72, BMP-3, etc.) after 2020. New missile systems (like Zircon and S-500), more cruise missiles, heavy drones and the average quality of individual equipment is also probably going to keep improving by quite a lot (Ratnik).

    But my main point really was that the figure seems too conservative regardless. Even with a modest economic growth, they should be able to afford more by the mid-20s, if the maintenance costs don't somehow balloon out of control (kind of like in the US actually), or something. And as long as "Putlerreich" doesn't want to turn into Sweden (in more ways than one, LOL).

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  24. @Brabantian
    Looking forward to more coverage of independent Russian presidential candidate and glamour girl Ksenia Sobchak whom Anatoly Karlin mentions above ... Ksenia seems a sweet religious girl the way she wears her Christian cross so close to her skin
    http://www.brspecial.com/images/russia/ksenia-sobchak/ksenia-sobchak5.jpg
    Ksenia just turned age 36 a few days ago on 5 Nov. ... definitely a star of the Russian election season, she is deservedly confident she will gather the 300,000 signatures needed to be on Russia's ballot
    https://www.theplace2.ru/archive/ksenia_sobchak/img/78eef1026aa5.jpg

    She needs 100,000 sigs since she’s getting nominated by a party.

    They’ll probably register her since she has a huge anti-rating and is less dangerous than Navalny, will make for a good (clownish) liberal candidate, and she will duly get her 3%-5%.

    Read More
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  25. Kimppis says:
    @Mitleser

    Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.
     
    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

    The numbers are unrealistically conservative.
     
    That is how the Russian government seems to work.
    Their budget is based on quite low oil prices ($40).
    Real prices are constantly higher.

    Exactly, forgot to mention that. The new armaments program has clearly been “invented” with a similar mindset, but it might actually be even more conservative than their recent federal budgets. The oil prices are indeed so much higher than $40 currently, that the Russian budget deficit must be very low, especially if the prices stays this “high” for some time.

    Also AP, it seems that the Russian economic growth is actually going to slightly above 2% this year. So if Ukraine really grows by 2% this year (I have no idea, don’t really follow Ukraine), then it’s entirely possible that Russia’s economic growth in 2017 will actually be slightly higher. Not that makes a massive difference to one way or another, just pointing that out.

    Read More
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  26. Mitleser says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Are we seeing a “brain drain” in Ukraine?
     
    To an extent, but I would bet that it is actually weaker than in Poland, which is in Schengen.

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea) so assuming the numbers aren't being cooked (I see no plausible way they can be) that implies emigration isn't catastrophic.

    If they can’t keep their smart fraction, then the average IQ may not matter as much.
     
    Certainly. It's very depressed relative to what it "should be." My modest argument is that I don't see how it can become much more of a negative outlier.

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea)

    No longer true.

    Ukraine experiencing big drop in births, like Russia and the Baltics:

    Ukraine Jan-Aug 2017 (2016) (excluding Crimea, Donezk and Luhansk)

    Births: 228,289 (247,053) -7.6%

    Estimate for the TFR for 2017: 1.39 (1.47)

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143071207&postcount=5630

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure - but this is happening across Russia, Belarus, and even the Baltics. And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia's fall is actually steeper than Ukraine's (-11.4%)!

    Russia certainly isn't currently explaining any sort of significant emigration, so that can't be an explanation for Ukraine's decline either.
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  27. More on topic:

    Bryan MacDonald – ‘Scoop’ based on Moscow rumors, another low in British media coverage of Russia

    At that point, I contacted one of Russia’s most prominent journalists, who knows Putin personally and has interviewed him many times. During a lengthy chat, the famous figure told me that even if Putin were genuinely “tired” and considering retirement, nobody outside his very close circle would know… and they NEVER EVER leak. A habit which, naturally, greatly upsets Russian hacks, who, unlike their American counterparts don’t have an endless flow of “classified” information to reveal.

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  28. @Mitleser

    The fertility rate has barely budged since 2014 (once you adjust for LDNR/Crimea)
     
    No longer true.

    Ukraine experiencing big drop in births, like Russia and the Baltics:

    Ukraine Jan-Aug 2017 (2016) (excluding Crimea, Donezk and Luhansk)

    Births: 228,289 (247,053) -7.6%

    Estimate for the TFR for 2017: 1.39 (1.47)
     
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143071207&postcount=5630

    Sure – but this is happening across Russia, Belarus, and even the Baltics. And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia’s fall is actually steeper than Ukraine’s (-11.4%)!

    Russia certainly isn’t currently explaining any sort of significant emigration, so that can’t be an explanation for Ukraine’s decline either.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia’s fall is actually steeper than Ukraine’s (-11.4%)!
     
    Combination of recession and other factors.

    A rather sharp decrease in the number of births. Dynamics of mortality in this case is the same as in previous years.
    None of the factors separately (demographic, economic, social) could not give such a result. Since last year greatly decreased the number of marriages (-15%), and this year on the contrary there is a large increase (+10%), apparently it was one of the strongest factors that influenced on the decrease in the number of births. Many couples delayed marriage (for various reasons - such as leap year, problems in the economy) and now of course no children are born, which would have been conceived after the wedding .

    On the other hand, recent years have seen a speeding up of the second birth, to receive maternity capital, which could get up to 31 December 2016. The programme is being extended, but many women gave birth to additional children much in advance of the final date 2-3 years ago. And now they are "not enough" in the number of mothers, that is as if they have given birth faster than they should have.

    It has generally been expected, but nobody expected such a strong decline.
     
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=139609638&postcount=32100
    , @Annatar
    The fall seems to be global, births in America are down 3.2% in first half 2017, 1.863m vs 1.925m. The TFR is likely to fall below 1.8 this year, perhaps as as low as 1.75.

    For all the talk about US "exceptionalism" in terms of fertility, not only has the US converged with Europe in terms of TFR since 2007 but is now going below European nations such as France or Sweden in TFR. For the first time since it was founded as a nation at the end of the 18th century, US fertility will be below that of several large European states.

    As you have mentioned, the US seems to be becoming more and more like Europe.
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  29. Mitleser says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure - but this is happening across Russia, Belarus, and even the Baltics. And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia's fall is actually steeper than Ukraine's (-11.4%)!

    Russia certainly isn't currently explaining any sort of significant emigration, so that can't be an explanation for Ukraine's decline either.

    And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia’s fall is actually steeper than Ukraine’s (-11.4%)!

    Combination of recession and other factors.

    A rather sharp decrease in the number of births. Dynamics of mortality in this case is the same as in previous years.
    None of the factors separately (demographic, economic, social) could not give such a result. Since last year greatly decreased the number of marriages (-15%), and this year on the contrary there is a large increase (+10%), apparently it was one of the strongest factors that influenced on the decrease in the number of births. Many couples delayed marriage (for various reasons – such as leap year, problems in the economy) and now of course no children are born, which would have been conceived after the wedding .

    On the other hand, recent years have seen a speeding up of the second birth, to receive maternity capital, which could get up to 31 December 2016. The programme is being extended, but many women gave birth to additional children much in advance of the final date 2-3 years ago. And now they are “not enough” in the number of mothers, that is as if they have given birth faster than they should have.

    It has generally been expected, but nobody expected such a strong decline.

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=139609638&postcount=32100

    Read More
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  30. Kimppis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    As I understand it, the ~20 billion ruble figure refers just to the rearmament problem, not running military expenses as such (which will indeed rise with GDP, presumably military salaries will keep on increasing, the kontraktnik/conscript ratio will keep rising, etc).

    It does however imply a drop in R&D and especially procurement. The latter is already evident in "real life", e.g. the rapidly diminishing projections for T-14 Armata acquisitions. Remember how they wanted to have 2,300 of those machines by 2020? Well, now they're aiming for just 100. Similar story with the PAK FA. Haven't been following it closely, but as I recall, acquisition numbers for the foreseeable future are going to be almost symbolic.

    I have to admit that I’m actually not sure, but it seems likely. They certainly seem to give more money to the military outside of the program, the process which is then announced mainly/only afterwards… That certainly happened last year, IIRC. And we are talking about tens of billions USD…

    I think they announced that the R&D spending is actually going to increase. It’s true that the procurement is going to decrease, but it’s partially/largely because the modernization has already been achieved (by the end of 2020).

    The procurement of 2,300 T-14s always seemed totally ridiculous, and was probably a mistranslation, or something. It never even made any sense for numerous reasons…

    1. Why did they start modernizing T-72s en masse at all, if that was going to be the case? 2,300 is an insane number by any standards. Western European powers like Germany, France and UK have only 200-300 MBTs each, the US seemingly has “only” around 2000 in proper active service (not 6000) and China has slightly less than 1,000 Type 99s.

    2. So the 2,300 figure was and is the total number of “modern” tanks in service, not only Armatas. That is pretty much exactly what they are going to achieve and it seems like an obvious explanation. That includes upgraded T-72s, and T-90s, and now they announced a modernization of some T-80s as well.

    So it’s possible that the Armata program might have been slightly cut, but certainly not from 2,300 to 100. One thing to consider is that T-14 seems to be very advanced, and it’s also modular, very upgradeable. Also the gap between different tank “generations” is certainly not going to shorten, so T-14 Armata is going to remain viable for a very long time (50 years even?). The US doesn’t even have any plans to replace Abrams (with a totally new generation vehicle). So it’s obvious T-14 is going to remain in production for a long time, even for the Russian service, probably for 2 decades, or so.

    Overall, it seems that the procurement is going to remain pretty similar to what it’s now, which is pretty good. The procurement of Su-35s, Su-30SMs and Su-34 is going to continue at a roughly similar level atleast until 2025, and of course Su-57′s production is going to start increasing.

    So realistically having 60-80 Su-57s by 2025, maybe 130-150 by 2030 sounds about right. The cut from 60 to 12, or whatever, is probably not going to matter that much in the end, it was always going to be a long-term program and Russia’s F-22, not F-35.

    Also it seems that the procurement of ships and land equipment is going to remain at a roughly similar level as well. They are going to cut attack helicopter procurement, because it seems that that has been going particularly well. And of course less need to procure or upgrade older vehicles (T-72, BMP-3, etc.) after 2020. New missile systems (like Zircon and S-500), more cruise missiles, heavy drones and the average quality of individual equipment is also probably going to keep improving by quite a lot (Ratnik).

    But my main point really was that the figure seems too conservative regardless. Even with a modest economic growth, they should be able to afford more by the mid-20s, if the maintenance costs don’t somehow balloon out of control (kind of like in the US actually), or something. And as long as “Putlerreich” doesn’t want to turn into Sweden (in more ways than one, LOL).

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.
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  31. AP says:
    @Mitleser

    Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.
     
    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

    The numbers are unrealistically conservative.
     
    That is how the Russian government seems to work.
    Their budget is based on quite low oil prices ($40).
    Real prices are constantly higher.

    “Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.”

    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.

    It depends on how much lower (salary in factory in Ukraine, vs. being a laborer in western Europe), and if it is worth the hassle of moving abroad and being apart from one’s family. The plants opening up now don’t have a shortage of workers.

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Uzbeks! And Tajiks.
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  32. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    We've discussed the issue of Ukrainian IQ in prior threads. To reiterate some of my arguments:

    * Ukraine isn't in PISA, but it does considerably - as in, around 7-9 IQ points equivalent - worse than Russia on the TIMSS.
    Although TIMSS isn't a great test, it's probably pretty legitimate to compare the ex-Soviet bloc because of their legacy of a common schooling system.
    * The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia. Indeed, they are around 5 points below the Russian average, being midway between that, and the ~88 IQ DICh. This is the case in PISA, and it is even the case in the recent n=250,000 potential military recruit sample I wrote about a few days ago.
    * The fact of low performance, both now and historically: Net recipient during Soviet period (Belarus and oil-rich Russia were only net donors); read twice less than Russians; remains more corrupt than Russia, despite all the rhetoric (the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect - Tsapok, Khalaleva, etc); relatively low literacy rates in late Russian Empire.

    I don't place a lot of weight on the Ukrainian IQ tests since there's few of them, samples are very low and unrepresentative.

    However, we will have a much better idea of where things stand come December 2019.

    Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.
     
    Well, it's not like the sentiments aren't mutual.

    However, I try to deal with facts. Fact is that it's hard to see how the Ukraine can be successful given how deep it is in failure (if only relative to its current position - but I am not arguing against that).

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia)...
     
    Well yes, sure, though one year is meaningless. That said as I made clear I expect the Ukraine to grow faster than Russia due to a stronger convergence effect.

    Since I also expect Russia to grow pretty strongly in the next several years, that should translate to very good growth in the Ukraine.

    The Russian Kuban (and Irkutsk/Zaybaykal) are the lowest IQ ethnic Russian regions of Russia…the Russian Kuban is also the most corrupt Russian region, and seems to produce a disproportionate amount of the most WTF stories in that respect – Tsapok, Khalaleva

    Kuban is probably very similar to rural parts of Ukraine. The population is highly mixed with rural Ukrainians. I would expect Kherson, Vynnytsia, Sumy, and other rural central and eastern Ukrainan regions to have Kuban-level IQs. OTOH, Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv would be higher. Zakarpatiya and Volyn would be a little lower but they don’t have a high population. Ukraine overall would therefore be higher than Kuban in IQ.

    Also – Ukrainian kids were tested a few months earlier in the school year on the TIMMS than were Russian kids, which probably accounts for a couple points.

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  33. Annatar says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure - but this is happening across Russia, Belarus, and even the Baltics. And quite unclear why so suddenly this year.

    Russia's fall is actually steeper than Ukraine's (-11.4%)!

    Russia certainly isn't currently explaining any sort of significant emigration, so that can't be an explanation for Ukraine's decline either.

    The fall seems to be global, births in America are down 3.2% in first half 2017, 1.863m vs 1.925m. The TFR is likely to fall below 1.8 this year, perhaps as as low as 1.75.

    For all the talk about US “exceptionalism” in terms of fertility, not only has the US converged with Europe in terms of TFR since 2007 but is now going below European nations such as France or Sweden in TFR. For the first time since it was founded as a nation at the end of the 18th century, US fertility will be below that of several large European states.

    As you have mentioned, the US seems to be becoming more and more like Europe.

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  34. So Medvedev is out of the picture?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    The memes were too strongk.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-medvedev-crimea-visit-no-money-social-media-pensioner/27754644.html
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  35. @jimmyriddle
    So Medvedev is out of the picture?
    Read More
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  36. 5371 says:
    @The Big Red Scary
    Alexey Dyumin? Damn. I was rooting for Dmitry “tanks don’t need visas” Rogozin.

    If one were to go by Churkin’s secret pseudonymous blog (discussed here after his untimely death a while back), Rogozin is extremely unpopular with his colleagues as a glory hound and all hat, no cattle kind of guy.

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    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    Well, I was joking. But I should read that Churkin blog. It sounds interesting.
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  37. 5371 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, I don’t entirely agree with Karlin in his assessment of Ukraine’s prospects: it is unclear where the supposed economic recovery supposed to come from.
     
    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.

    A fast recovery is inevitable under any conditions that approximate normalcy, despite lingering corruption, a 20% inflation rate, a poor business climate, the loss of export earnings from the Donbass, etc. Debt as a percentage of GDP will now go down. Their Finance Minister has done a good job of eliminating pocket banks, as with Nabiullina in Russia. Foreign currency reserves are now at a safe level of almost $20 billion.

    No, it probably won't be "successful" on most metrics, but it almost certainly won't collapse or fragment further, and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms.

    LOL, this is like saying a QB who has failed at 5 different NFL teams is bound to be a star eventually, because he looks good on paper and played well in college.

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  38. @5371
    If one were to go by Churkin's secret pseudonymous blog (discussed here after his untimely death a while back), Rogozin is extremely unpopular with his colleagues as a glory hound and all hat, no cattle kind of guy.

    Well, I was joking. But I should read that Churkin blog. It sounds interesting.

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  39. What ever happened to Boris N?

    Lot’s of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I’ve ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.

    He didn’t like Putin, he didn’t like the opponents of Putin, he didn’t like the Ukraine, he didn’t like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn’t like the people who didn’t like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn’t like Russophobes, he didn’t like Russophiles, he didn’t like people who were neither Russophobes nor Russophiles, he didn’t like Muslims, he didn’t like Syria and Iran, he didn’t like the enemies of Syria and Iran, he didn’t like the Communists, he didn’t like the opponents of Communism, he didn’t like the West (although like all non Americans he felt like he deserved a say on US healthcare policies and gun control legislation), he didn’t like the fact that it wasn’t easy for him to immigrate to the West, etc.

    With Boris N, whatever the issue was, you knew his position before the conversation even started: Against.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh


    Lot’s of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I’ve ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.
     
    Maybe he turned against the Internet too.
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  40. @Greasy William
    What ever happened to Boris N?

    Lot's of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I've ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.

    He didn't like Putin, he didn't like the opponents of Putin, he didn't like the Ukraine, he didn't like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn't like the people who didn't like Anatoly and the Russian posters here, he didn't like Russophobes, he didn't like Russophiles, he didn't like people who were neither Russophobes nor Russophiles, he didn't like Muslims, he didn't like Syria and Iran, he didn't like the enemies of Syria and Iran, he didn't like the Communists, he didn't like the opponents of Communism, he didn't like the West (although like all non Americans he felt like he deserved a say on US healthcare policies and gun control legislation), he didn't like the fact that it wasn't easy for him to immigrate to the West, etc.

    With Boris N, whatever the issue was, you knew his position before the conversation even started: Against.

    Lot’s of interesting people on Unz, but I always thought Boris N was the most interesting simply because he is the only person I’ve ever met, either online or in person, who was anti everything.

    Maybe he turned against the Internet too.

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    • LOL: Greasy William, Talha
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  41. @Brabantian
    Looking forward to more coverage of independent Russian presidential candidate and glamour girl Ksenia Sobchak whom Anatoly Karlin mentions above ... Ksenia seems a sweet religious girl the way she wears her Christian cross so close to her skin
    http://www.brspecial.com/images/russia/ksenia-sobchak/ksenia-sobchak5.jpg
    Ksenia just turned age 36 a few days ago on 5 Nov. ... definitely a star of the Russian election season, she is deservedly confident she will gather the 300,000 signatures needed to be on Russia's ballot
    https://www.theplace2.ru/archive/ksenia_sobchak/img/78eef1026aa5.jpg

    5/10. Would not bang.

    Looks like she has some Jewish ancestry as well. Hmm… revised position: 4/10. Would not bang.

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    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
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  42. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I don't see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.

    rapidly declining and aging population

    Most migration is temporary (work a few months, and return).

    Ukraine’ median age is about the same as Poland’s and significantly lower than western Europe’s. The oldest population in Ukraine, with the least children, was Donbas, and it is gone.

    its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed

    Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

    Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow

    Russia accounted for 38% of FDI. This mostly took the form of bank racapitalization.

    but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state

    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D, agriculture, light industry, and pharma. Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D
     
    You keep pushing this theme, and it still makes no sense to me. Ukraine has just under 40 million population, the vast majority of them want nothing to do with computers. You can't have "IT outsourcing" as a foundation for the economy. That's a joke!


    Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.
     
    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine's status as an economic wasteland.


    Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.
     
    Growth in Poland is unevenly distributed; the Eastern part is economically desolate with unemloyment in double digit figures. That's the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine? They are basically stuck in limbo until relations with Russia improve.
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  43. @AP

    rapidly declining and aging population
     
    Most migration is temporary (work a few months, and return).

    Ukraine' median age is about the same as Poland's and significantly lower than western Europe's. The oldest population in Ukraine, with the least children, was Donbas, and it is gone.

    its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed
     
    Poland's GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

    Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow
     
    Russia accounted for 38% of FDI. This mostly took the form of bank racapitalization.

    but I don’t see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state
     
    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D, agriculture, light industry, and pharma. Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.

    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D

    You keep pushing this theme, and it still makes no sense to me. Ukraine has just under 40 million population, the vast majority of them want nothing to do with computers. You can’t have “IT outsourcing” as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!

    Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.

    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.

    Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.

    Growth in Poland is unevenly distributed; the Eastern part is economically desolate with unemloyment in double digit figures. That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine? They are basically stuck in limbo until relations with Russia improve.

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    • Replies: @AP

    You can’t have “IT outsourcing” as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!
     
    IT, pharma, light industry, and agriculture seem to be growing. That's hardly a wasteland.

    In the first 9 months of 2017, exports of services (largely IT outsourcing) was $7.8 billion, up 10% from last year. Exports of food was up 25% and grain 15%.

    "Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia."

    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.
     
    First part is true and of course not good, second part doesn't follow due to other sectors of the economy doing well.

    That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine?
     
    Lviv oblast's GRP declined a total of 5% in 2014 and 2015. It grew 2% in 2016, and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So far in 2017 salaries are up 20% and costs up only 9%.

    The country overall grew 2.3% in 2016, projected to grow 2% in 2017 and over 3% next year. So something is happening.
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  44. @Mitleser
    The Ukraine has a lot of potential as Agricolony of EUrope.
    Of course, for that you don't need many people.

    Or as an agri-colony of CHINA, in time.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    The Ukraine is big enough for both sides, though there are signs that Brüssel is less and less willing to share with the Chinese.
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  45. @AP
    I mention it a lot, but IT has a lot of jobs, is growing, and one can live much better on an IT salary in Ukraine than in many other places. Recent example:

    Swedish telecommunications giant Ericsson opens R & D office in Lviv.

    https://www.dev-pro.net/blog/why-big-tech-names-have-opened-rd-facilities-in-ukraine/

    Only heard of a couple of such plants
     
    Some examples:

    Leoni:

    https://www.just-auto.com/news/leoni-opens-second-wiring-systems-plant-in-ukraine_id178896.aspx

    (their largest plant is actually in Ukraine)

    Kromberg and Schubert:

    http://en.lawyers.ua/krombergschubert-increases-the-investments-in-its-plant-in-zhitomir.html

    BASF:

    https://www.theubj.com/news/view/germanys-basf-finds-growth-in-ukraines-regions

    Don’t think this is gonna last because aging and migration constantly reduces the amount of available Ukrainian cheap labor.
     
    The number of light industrial plants is growing and expanding. Much of the migration is temporary - someone working in Poland or Germany for a few months, and returning home with money. Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open.

    Ukraine's median age is about the same as Poland's, and slightly higher than Russia's (which probably means lower than ethnic Russia's). It is clearly lower than the EU average.

    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

    I’m not happy about it, but the fertility numbers are so dire that I am tired of seeing them ignored or downplayed. As these figures show, Ukraine’s population drops every day simply because there are more than one hundred more deaths than births EVERY DAY, without taking any account of net migration:

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    As the population ages further and there are ever fewer women of childbearing age, the rate of population decline will accelerate drastically.

    There will be hardly any Ukrainian people in existence soon, so there will be none to take jobs of any sort.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    PS, Ukraine's population:

    51.4 million in 1990
    50.9 million in 1995
    48.8 million in 2000
    46.9 million in 2005
    45.8 million in 2010
    44.7 million in 2015
    43.6 million projected for 2020
    42.5 million projected for 2025

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    (oddly, this source must be counting Crimea as part of Ukraine for the future projections, apparently)

    The worst is yet to come for Ukraine's population. As they have fewer women of childbearing age AND a terribly low fertility rate among those women, the rate of population decline will accelerate. Tragic.
    , @AP

    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.
     
    TFR of around 1.5 is not terrible by European standards. And unlike the case with Europe - this doesn't mean population replacement, as there is no diversity in Ukraine. It just means a smaller population. In 2050, Ukraine without Crimea and Donbas will probably have a population as it did in the early 1960s. It will be just as Slavic by then. Ukraine was hardly an uninhabited wasteland in the early 1960s.

    Moreover Ukrainian birth rates are not even. Here is a nice interactive site where you can explore by oblast by year:

    http://datatowel.in.ua/natural/birth-death-regions-historical

    You'll see that 2 oblasts plus the city of Kiev had more births than deaths in 2016. A third one almost broke even (459 more deaths than births).
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  46. @RadicalCenter
    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

    I'm not happy about it, but the fertility numbers are so dire that I am tired of seeing them ignored or downplayed. As these figures show, Ukraine's population drops every day simply because there are more than one hundred more deaths than births EVERY DAY, without taking any account of net migration:

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    As the population ages further and there are ever fewer women of childbearing age, the rate of population decline will accelerate drastically.

    There will be hardly any Ukrainian people in existence soon, so there will be none to take jobs of any sort.

    PS, Ukraine’s population:

    51.4 million in 1990
    50.9 million in 1995
    48.8 million in 2000
    46.9 million in 2005
    45.8 million in 2010
    44.7 million in 2015
    43.6 million projected for 2020
    42.5 million projected for 2025

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    (oddly, this source must be counting Crimea as part of Ukraine for the future projections, apparently)

    The worst is yet to come for Ukraine’s population. As they have fewer women of childbearing age AND a terribly low fertility rate among those women, the rate of population decline will accelerate. Tragic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Keep in mind, the Ukraine hasn't had a census since 2001! So these projections are more like guesstimates really.

    I'm pretty sure regime-controlled part of Ukraine has under 40 million people now.
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  47. @RadicalCenter
    PS, Ukraine's population:

    51.4 million in 1990
    50.9 million in 1995
    48.8 million in 2000
    46.9 million in 2005
    45.8 million in 2010
    44.7 million in 2015
    43.6 million projected for 2020
    42.5 million projected for 2025

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    (oddly, this source must be counting Crimea as part of Ukraine for the future projections, apparently)

    The worst is yet to come for Ukraine's population. As they have fewer women of childbearing age AND a terribly low fertility rate among those women, the rate of population decline will accelerate. Tragic.

    Keep in mind, the Ukraine hasn’t had a census since 2001! So these projections are more like guesstimates really.

    I’m pretty sure regime-controlled part of Ukraine has under 40 million people now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    But again, though, you'd have to explain the birth statistics.

    Three options:

    (1) Population is accurate, TFR is at ~1.5 - which is hardly awful by European standards, esp. considering the Ukraine's current circumstances.

    (2) Population is lower, in which case TFR is higher - even far higher, because it is mostly young people who leave the Ukraine for work. Perhaps at around Russia's level. That's unlikely.

    (3) The births statistics are being fiddled with too. Any evidence of that?
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  48. @Felix Keverich
    Keep in mind, the Ukraine hasn't had a census since 2001! So these projections are more like guesstimates really.

    I'm pretty sure regime-controlled part of Ukraine has under 40 million people now.

    But again, though, you’d have to explain the birth statistics.

    Three options:

    (1) Population is accurate, TFR is at ~1.5 – which is hardly awful by European standards, esp. considering the Ukraine’s current circumstances.

    (2) Population is lower, in which case TFR is higher – even far higher, because it is mostly young people who leave the Ukraine for work. Perhaps at around Russia’s level. That’s unlikely.

    (3) The births statistics are being fiddled with too. Any evidence of that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine doesn't just lag behind Russia, it also lags behind Belarus in TFR. I think its possible that actual TFR is slightly higher than the one reported, because the number of women is overestimated, but I'm not interesting in going too deep into such speculations.

    The point is these losers are embarrassed to do a census, because they know how bad their demographics are.
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  49. Mitleser says:
    @RadicalCenter
    Or as an agri-colony of CHINA, in time.

    The Ukraine is big enough for both sides, though there are signs that Brüssel is less and less willing to share with the Chinese.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    When the USA becomes unable to credibly threaten sustained conventional force in Ukraine, as we will, the European countries themselves will not be able to do much with their pathetic militaries and declining native populations. They will have their hands full with a never ending Muslim and African crime wave, far greater than what has already developed, and ultimately large parts of their countries will be effectively conquered by Muslims.

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

    “The EU”, if it still exists in twenty years, will have no opinion re Ukraine that China need seriously worry about.

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  50. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Growth in IT outsourcing, R & D
     
    You keep pushing this theme, and it still makes no sense to me. Ukraine has just under 40 million population, the vast majority of them want nothing to do with computers. You can't have "IT outsourcing" as a foundation for the economy. That's a joke!


    Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.
     
    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine's status as an economic wasteland.


    Poland’s GDP growth 3.3% 2014, 3.8% 2015, 2.7% 2016.
     
    Growth in Poland is unevenly distributed; the Eastern part is economically desolate with unemloyment in double digit figures. That's the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine? They are basically stuck in limbo until relations with Russia improve.

    You can’t have “IT outsourcing” as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!

    IT, pharma, light industry, and agriculture seem to be growing. That’s hardly a wasteland.

    In the first 9 months of 2017, exports of services (largely IT outsourcing) was $7.8 billion, up 10% from last year. Exports of food was up 25% and grain 15%.

    “Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia.”

    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.

    First part is true and of course not good, second part doesn’t follow due to other sectors of the economy doing well.

    That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine?

    Lviv oblast’s GRP declined a total of 5% in 2014 and 2015. It grew 2% in 2016, and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So far in 2017 salaries are up 20% and costs up only 9%.

    The country overall grew 2.3% in 2016, projected to grow 2% in 2017 and over 3% next year. So something is happening.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's growth is below global average, despite the fact that the country currently has some African levels GDP per capita.

    In other words, the world is leaving Ukraine behind. It's kinda funny, telling yourself that you're a European country, while living like Nigerians, but Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections!

    That's what I meant when I said that Ukraine lacks economic potential: it is stuck in a rut, with no clear way out.
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  51. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter
    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

    I'm not happy about it, but the fertility numbers are so dire that I am tired of seeing them ignored or downplayed. As these figures show, Ukraine's population drops every day simply because there are more than one hundred more deaths than births EVERY DAY, without taking any account of net migration:

    http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population/

    As the population ages further and there are ever fewer women of childbearing age, the rate of population decline will accelerate drastically.

    There will be hardly any Ukrainian people in existence soon, so there will be none to take jobs of any sort.

    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.

    TFR of around 1.5 is not terrible by European standards. And unlike the case with Europe – this doesn’t mean population replacement, as there is no diversity in Ukraine. It just means a smaller population. In 2050, Ukraine without Crimea and Donbas will probably have a population as it did in the early 1960s. It will be just as Slavic by then. Ukraine was hardly an uninhabited wasteland in the early 1960s.

    Moreover Ukrainian birth rates are not even. Here is a nice interactive site where you can explore by oblast by year:

    http://datatowel.in.ua/natural/birth-death-regions-historical

    You’ll see that 2 oblasts plus the city of Kiev had more births than deaths in 2016. A third one almost broke even (459 more deaths than births).

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    The TFR is not terrible by European standards?

    In other words, the Ukrainians aren't dying out as a people much faster than the English, Germans, French, Italians, and Swedes are dying out as peoples. Impressive and reassuring.

    I wish it weren't so, but Ukrainian population decline is set to accelerate drastically as the number of women of childbearing age shrinks.

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  52. @Felix Keverich
    There is a lot more to economic growth than IQ. This is a country with rapidly declining and aging population, its neighbours to the West are economically stagnant/depressed, its ties to the East are frayed. Yet, Russia remains its largest investor somehow, which means that international capital is ignoring the Ukraine.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I don't see a whole lot of economic potential in independent Ukrainian state, just a depopulating wasteland.

    The EU is booming. Ukraine will get pulled by that train. Russia needs to find a friend without oil to keep up. Turkey is too close to the EU. India’s interest is transactional. China has already given the cold shoulder. The next President has a political hole to dig himself out of. Japan is still an option.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Friendly reminder that PO is a hardcore remainer.
    , @Felix Keverich
    lol EU is currently "booming" at an annual rate of 2%. Russia will have no trouble "keeping up".
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  53. @Kimppis
    I have to admit that I'm actually not sure, but it seems likely. They certainly seem to give more money to the military outside of the program, the process which is then announced mainly/only afterwards... That certainly happened last year, IIRC. And we are talking about tens of billions USD...

    I think they announced that the R&D spending is actually going to increase. It's true that the procurement is going to decrease, but it's partially/largely because the modernization has already been achieved (by the end of 2020).

    The procurement of 2,300 T-14s always seemed totally ridiculous, and was probably a mistranslation, or something. It never even made any sense for numerous reasons...

    1. Why did they start modernizing T-72s en masse at all, if that was going to be the case? 2,300 is an insane number by any standards. Western European powers like Germany, France and UK have only 200-300 MBTs each, the US seemingly has "only" around 2000 in proper active service (not 6000) and China has slightly less than 1,000 Type 99s.

    2. So the 2,300 figure was and is the total number of "modern" tanks in service, not only Armatas. That is pretty much exactly what they are going to achieve and it seems like an obvious explanation. That includes upgraded T-72s, and T-90s, and now they announced a modernization of some T-80s as well.

    So it's possible that the Armata program might have been slightly cut, but certainly not from 2,300 to 100. One thing to consider is that T-14 seems to be very advanced, and it's also modular, very upgradeable. Also the gap between different tank "generations" is certainly not going to shorten, so T-14 Armata is going to remain viable for a very long time (50 years even?). The US doesn't even have any plans to replace Abrams (with a totally new generation vehicle). So it's obvious T-14 is going to remain in production for a long time, even for the Russian service, probably for 2 decades, or so.

    Overall, it seems that the procurement is going to remain pretty similar to what it's now, which is pretty good. The procurement of Su-35s, Su-30SMs and Su-34 is going to continue at a roughly similar level atleast until 2025, and of course Su-57's production is going to start increasing.

    So realistically having 60-80 Su-57s by 2025, maybe 130-150 by 2030 sounds about right. The cut from 60 to 12, or whatever, is probably not going to matter that much in the end, it was always going to be a long-term program and Russia's F-22, not F-35.

    Also it seems that the procurement of ships and land equipment is going to remain at a roughly similar level as well. They are going to cut attack helicopter procurement, because it seems that that has been going particularly well. And of course less need to procure or upgrade older vehicles (T-72, BMP-3, etc.) after 2020. New missile systems (like Zircon and S-500), more cruise missiles, heavy drones and the average quality of individual equipment is also probably going to keep improving by quite a lot (Ratnik).

    But my main point really was that the figure seems too conservative regardless. Even with a modest economic growth, they should be able to afford more by the mid-20s, if the maintenance costs don't somehow balloon out of control (kind of like in the US actually), or something. And as long as "Putlerreich" doesn't want to turn into Sweden (in more ways than one, LOL).

    Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    What French components?
    , @Kimppis
    I think I saw you mention that before... You have no idea what you're talking about.

    Okay, that is total nonsense. Armata doesn't have any "French" components, certainly not any major ones.

    And 2030 sounds totally ridiculous, who would actually ever make than kind of a prediction? How could it ever take that long to replace tank components - for Russia?

    It's like Russia doesn't have a full-scale, internationally competitive MIC and that the Russian military and MIC haven't been considerably modernized during the last 5-10 years. Why not 2050? 2300?

    , @Peripatetic commenter
    Well, this does say that only 100 units will be delivered by 2020, which is not far off 2030 ...

    I, for one, am hoping for a nice little conflict between NATO and Russia so we can see how each side's equipment and personnel really perform.
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  54. @AP

    "Such labor can be captured at home as new plants open."

    Not if they pay noticeably worse than abroad.
     

    It depends on how much lower (salary in factory in Ukraine, vs. being a laborer in western Europe), and if it is worth the hassle of moving abroad and being apart from one's family. The plants opening up now don't have a shortage of workers.

    Uzbeks! And Tajiks.

    Read More
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  55. Gerard2 says:
    @AP

    At the end of the day the Ukraine has a national IQ around the 92-96 range
     
    Lynn estimated 97. The 92 figure comes from the same source that placed Romania at 82, which is very unrealistic. Is there a logical reason to suppose a number that is a lot lower than that of neighboring Slavic countries Russia, Belarus, and Poland? Ukrainians have some Balkan descent which would depress their score, and Russians some Finnic which might elevate their score, but it's doubtful that the resultant difference would be dramatic. Ukrainians don't have a reputation in neighboring countries of being dumb.

    and a GDP (PPP) per capita around the level of Morocco or Guatemala.
     
    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

    No, it probably won’t be “successful” on most metrics, but it almost certainly won’t collapse or fragment further
     
    It's too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    and will probably start gaining on Russia in relative terms
     
    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

    Also, about Ukraine's economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country). This is gone. A lot of the drop in the national per capita GDP simply reflects this loss. That is, even if there were no trade disruptions or war, if you compared Ukraine per capita GDP PPP in 2013 vs. Ukraine 2016 per capita GDP PPP but excluded the coal and steel exporting areas when formulating the latter figure, you would get a large drop in per capita GDP for Ukraine. But this doesn't mean the areas being measured in 2016 have actually gotten poorer.

    Much of the decline actually reflects the fact that poorer regions are being measured and richer ones are excluded from the figures now - and not that those remaining Ukrainian regions have gotten a lot poorer. To be sure, there has been decline in the remaining Ukrainian regions too (war and trade disruption have had an effect) and overall Ukraine-outside-Donbas is poorer now than it was in 2013- but not as much as the drop in per capita figures suggests. Indeed, some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 - so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

    [MORE]

    this is hilarious…the shameless twat fresh from telling more easily disproveable lies about Ukraines extremely poor suicide rate (and probably making a million more attention-whore idiot posts taking up hours)….is back to typing more attention-whore lies!

    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).

    errrmm no….Guatemala ,Morocco are far more suitable. Ukraine is even more failed than Georgia and Moldova over the last 26 years you idiot. Armenia is an idiotic comparison because it has had non-existant trade with it’s 2 wealthy neighbours over 25 years……(Turkey and Azerbaijian due to historical and political reasons)…despite that it is a more prosperous and stable country than Ukraine ever was. People living in the disputed ,war-region of Nagorno-Karabakh are wealthier than Ukrainians…..think about what that implies you cretinous fuckwit.

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.

    errmmm…Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017 you stupid moron. Russia still had growth in 2014, Ukraine more catastrophic GDP loss in 2014/2015 (but not of Oligarch’s wealth)
    .This is then to go with the fact that Ukrainian 2% “growth”, in a country that has experienced a double-digit recession and hasn’t deindustrialised at the same rate that it has lost population…is a catastrophic failure you idiot. Russia, on the other hand is now past “break-even’ stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop. It’s also clear that the sole reason for even this non-existant “growth” in the “Ukraine” economy is precisely because of the upturn in the Russian economy.

    It’s too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.

    fantasist spamtroll retards with no functioning life other than spending hours coming up with fake information ( and who havenot actually stepped foot in Ukraine since Evromaidan and are the fuckedup relatives of POS UPA child-raping vermin)….dont’ classify as “Ukrainians” who can “note their wishes”….in reality the 4% of GDP from remittances (plus the considerable more from Russian investment and joint projects) are a lifeline for the Ukrainian economy….and Russians don’t want their family members to suffer you idiot.

    Also, about Ukraine’s economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country).

    hahaha!..another braindead comparison. Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil…..Ukraine still has high internal consumption of coal and steel you imbecile….much more than of oil- so Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot……they are directly dependent on them…and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine.Donbass is the most populous and profitable area of Ukraine you dipshit, 5 of the most populous and or economically important areas are in Novorossiya.

    some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 – so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

    hahahaha! Lets get this straight you time-wasting spamtroll scumbag…Ukraine will take over 10 years, probably close to 20 YEARS to get to the Yanukovich level of economy you retarded stupid cunt. There is no “better relative to Russia”. Poland on the other hand is set to lose out to Russians in earnings, similar to before 2014, when in less than a decade, Russians went from earning 1/3rd of what Poles earn….to earning 20% more.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP


    Retard2 stalks again with mindless barking...
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  56. AP says:
    @Gerard2


    this is hilarious...the shameless twat fresh from telling more easily disproveable lies about Ukraines extremely poor suicide rate (and probably making a million more attention-whore idiot posts taking up hours)....is back to typing more attention-whore lies!

    The closest post-Commie country, a better comparison, is Armenia (slightly higher than Ukraine).
     
    errrmm no....Guatemala ,Morocco are far more suitable. Ukraine is even more failed than Georgia and Moldova over the last 26 years you idiot. Armenia is an idiotic comparison because it has had non-existant trade with it's 2 wealthy neighbours over 25 years......(Turkey and Azerbaijian due to historical and political reasons)...despite that it is a more prosperous and stable country than Ukraine ever was. People living in the disputed ,war-region of Nagorno-Karabakh are wealthier than Ukrainians.....think about what that implies you cretinous fuckwit.

    It already started doing this in 2016 (+2.3% growth Ukraine, -.2% growth Russia), although not nearly enough to bring Ukraine back to the relative position it had vis a vis Russia in 2013. Ukraine is projected to grow 2% in 2017, Russia 1.3%.
     
    errmmm...Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017 you stupid moron. Russia still had growth in 2014, Ukraine more catastrophic GDP loss in 2014/2015 (but not of Oligarch's wealth)
    .This is then to go with the fact that Ukrainian 2% "growth", in a country that has experienced a double-digit recession and hasn't deindustrialised at the same rate that it has lost population...is a catastrophic failure you idiot. Russia, on the other hand is now past "break-even' stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop. It's also clear that the sole reason for even this non-existant "growth" in the "Ukraine" economy is precisely because of the upturn in the Russian economy.

    It’s too soon to tell. Many Russians are hoping for the worst, of course, and Ukrainians note their nice wishes.
     
    fantasist spamtroll retards with no functioning life other than spending hours coming up with fake information ( and who havenot actually stepped foot in Ukraine since Evromaidan and are the fuckedup relatives of POS UPA child-raping vermin)....dont' classify as "Ukrainians" who can "note their wishes"....in reality the 4% of GDP from remittances (plus the considerable more from Russian investment and joint projects) are a lifeline for the Ukrainian economy....and Russians don't want their family members to suffer you idiot.

    Also, about Ukraine’s economic growth: Donbas with its coal and steel was a major source of GDP (it was a bit like an oil-producing region in an otherwise poorer country).
     
    hahaha!..another braindead comparison. Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil.....Ukraine still has high internal consumption of coal and steel you imbecile....much more than of oil- so Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot......they are directly dependent on them...and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine.Donbass is the most populous and profitable area of Ukraine you dipshit, 5 of the most populous and or economically important areas are in Novorossiya.

    some regions in Ukraine are now where they were in 2013 – so they are doing better relative to Russia than they were in 2013.

     

    hahahaha! Lets get this straight you time-wasting spamtroll scumbag...Ukraine will take over 10 years, probably close to 20 YEARS to get to the Yanukovich level of economy you retarded stupid cunt. There is no "better relative to Russia". Poland on the other hand is set to lose out to Russians in earnings, similar to before 2014, when in less than a decade, Russians went from earning 1/3rd of what Poles earn....to earning 20% more.

    [MORE]

    Retard2 stalks again with mindless barking…

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    Gerard2 isn't "barking", he's right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

    (Hardly a surprise if you know anything about the history of that particular geographic region.)
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  57. Mitleser says:
    @Philip Owen
    Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.

    What French components?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Optics and fire control system.
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  58. Mitleser says:
    @Philip Owen
    The EU is booming. Ukraine will get pulled by that train. Russia needs to find a friend without oil to keep up. Turkey is too close to the EU. India's interest is transactional. China has already given the cold shoulder. The next President has a political hole to dig himself out of. Japan is still an option.

    Friendly reminder that PO is a hardcore remainer.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Before the vote, yes. Since a soft leaver. Vote on terms, stay in single market or at least CU.
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  59. @AP


    Retard2 stalks again with mindless barking...

    Gerard2 isn’t “barking”, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

    (Hardly a surprise if you know anything about the history of that particular geographic region.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Gerard2 isn’t “barking”, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.
     
    Says the guy who believes stuff like the Tsars persecuted the Orthodox Church more than did the Soviets, or that Russia is as deeply religious country.

    Let's look at the barking:

    Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017...Russia, on the other hand is now past “break-even’ stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop
     
    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.

    More barking:

    Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil
     
    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.

    Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot……they are directly dependent on them…and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine
     
    Lviv oblast's GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it's doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.
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  60. @Anatoly Karlin
    But again, though, you'd have to explain the birth statistics.

    Three options:

    (1) Population is accurate, TFR is at ~1.5 - which is hardly awful by European standards, esp. considering the Ukraine's current circumstances.

    (2) Population is lower, in which case TFR is higher - even far higher, because it is mostly young people who leave the Ukraine for work. Perhaps at around Russia's level. That's unlikely.

    (3) The births statistics are being fiddled with too. Any evidence of that?

    Ukraine doesn’t just lag behind Russia, it also lags behind Belarus in TFR. I think its possible that actual TFR is slightly higher than the one reported, because the number of women is overestimated, but I’m not interesting in going too deep into such speculations.

    The point is these losers are embarrassed to do a census, because they know how bad their demographics are.

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  61. @Philip Owen
    The EU is booming. Ukraine will get pulled by that train. Russia needs to find a friend without oil to keep up. Turkey is too close to the EU. India's interest is transactional. China has already given the cold shoulder. The next President has a political hole to dig himself out of. Japan is still an option.

    lol EU is currently “booming” at an annual rate of 2%. Russia will have no trouble “keeping up”.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    A 2% European growth rate would be enough to induce strong growth (4-5%) in Eastern Central Europe. Possibly in Ukraine, too.
    , @Philip Owen
    Russia is at -0.2% and has restricted access to capital.
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  62. @AP

    None of that changes the fact that Ukrainians are a dying people, literally. Their total fertility rate is so low that their population will continue to drop, with no end in sight, even if every Ukrainian returned from abroad.
     
    TFR of around 1.5 is not terrible by European standards. And unlike the case with Europe - this doesn't mean population replacement, as there is no diversity in Ukraine. It just means a smaller population. In 2050, Ukraine without Crimea and Donbas will probably have a population as it did in the early 1960s. It will be just as Slavic by then. Ukraine was hardly an uninhabited wasteland in the early 1960s.

    Moreover Ukrainian birth rates are not even. Here is a nice interactive site where you can explore by oblast by year:

    http://datatowel.in.ua/natural/birth-death-regions-historical

    You'll see that 2 oblasts plus the city of Kiev had more births than deaths in 2016. A third one almost broke even (459 more deaths than births).

    The TFR is not terrible by European standards?

    In other words, the Ukrainians aren’t dying out as a people much faster than the English, Germans, French, Italians, and Swedes are dying out as peoples. Impressive and reassuring.

    I wish it weren’t so, but Ukrainian population decline is set to accelerate drastically as the number of women of childbearing age shrinks.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The Ukrainians will stay around longer than the English. The English not only fail to reproduce, but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace. And the English collapse is still far away. So Ukrainian demographics is not going to hinder their economic performance for some time.
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  63. @AP

    You can’t have “IT outsourcing” as a foundation for the economy. That’s a joke!
     
    IT, pharma, light industry, and agriculture seem to be growing. That's hardly a wasteland.

    In the first 9 months of 2017, exports of services (largely IT outsourcing) was $7.8 billion, up 10% from last year. Exports of food was up 25% and grain 15%.

    "Decline in heavy industry and high-tech manufacturing that had been integrated with Russia."

    And that means valuable technical skills will be lost cementing Ukraine’s status as an economic wasteland.
     
    First part is true and of course not good, second part doesn't follow due to other sectors of the economy doing well.

    That’s the problem that Ukrainians face: their EU neighbours will have to become rich, before any prosperity starts to spill over into Western Ukraine. And where does that leave Central and Eastern Ukraine?
     
    Lviv oblast's GRP declined a total of 5% in 2014 and 2015. It grew 2% in 2016, and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So far in 2017 salaries are up 20% and costs up only 9%.

    The country overall grew 2.3% in 2016, projected to grow 2% in 2017 and over 3% next year. So something is happening.

    Ukraine’s growth is below global average, despite the fact that the country currently has some African levels GDP per capita.

    In other words, the world is leaving Ukraine behind. It’s kinda funny, telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians, but Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections!

    That’s what I meant when I said that Ukraine lacks economic potential: it is stuck in a rut, with no clear way out.

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    • Replies: @AP

    telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians,
     
    Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria's is $5,867.

    Ukraine's Human Development Index score is the same as Armenia's at .743; Nigeria's is at .527.

    (although Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries' HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectively).

    Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections
     
    Central Africa's Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

    You are soooo objective.

    There is a small oil-rich central African country that is wealthier than Ukraine - Equatorial Guinea. Alas, its per capita GDP PPP of $25,535 places it ahead of Russia also.
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  64. @RadicalCenter
    The TFR is not terrible by European standards?

    In other words, the Ukrainians aren't dying out as a people much faster than the English, Germans, French, Italians, and Swedes are dying out as peoples. Impressive and reassuring.

    I wish it weren't so, but Ukrainian population decline is set to accelerate drastically as the number of women of childbearing age shrinks.

    The Ukrainians will stay around longer than the English. The English not only fail to reproduce, but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace. And the English collapse is still far away. So Ukrainian demographics is not going to hinder their economic performance for some time.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    The English not only fail to reproduce
     
    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52). Note that in Northern Ireland where non-European migrants are rare the TFR was 1,95, higher than in France or America.

    but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace.
     
    Pray for Brexit. A worse economic performance should discourage that.
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  65. @Felix Keverich
    lol EU is currently "booming" at an annual rate of 2%. Russia will have no trouble "keeping up".

    A 2% European growth rate would be enough to induce strong growth (4-5%) in Eastern Central Europe. Possibly in Ukraine, too.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    So do you think Hungary can finally exceed its 2008 level of GDP? I'm happy for you, guys!

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hungary+gdp
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  66. @reiner Tor
    A 2% European growth rate would be enough to induce strong growth (4-5%) in Eastern Central Europe. Possibly in Ukraine, too.

    So do you think Hungary can finally exceed its 2008 level of GDP? I’m happy for you, guys!

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hungary+gdp

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Not really a fair comparison - the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars even the laggard Hungary is doing better now than in 2008.

    It is true however that gains relative to the European core have crawled to a standstill since that period. It remains to be seen whether this is permanent or a temporary adjustment after the ~1995-2007 period of rapid convergence.
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  67. @Felix Keverich
    So do you think Hungary can finally exceed its 2008 level of GDP? I'm happy for you, guys!

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hungary+gdp

    Not really a fair comparison – the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars even the laggard Hungary is doing better now than in 2008.

    It is true however that gains relative to the European core have crawled to a standstill since that period. It remains to be seen whether this is permanent or a temporary adjustment after the ~1995-2007 period of rapid convergence.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Nominal GDP is what really matters when we're talking about international financial flows and trade.

    Put simply, nominal GDP indicates the country's "weight" in international markets, its "purchasing power" and capacity to absorb imports. Eastern Europe can grow its GDP all it wants, but if it won't buy more Ukrainian goods, then how is their growth going to benefit the Ukraine?
    , @reiner Tor

    Not really a fair comparison – the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars
     
    Also at least 5% of the population left. (Mostly highly productive young people.) So per capita GDP is higher.
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  68. @Anatoly Karlin
    Not really a fair comparison - the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars even the laggard Hungary is doing better now than in 2008.

    It is true however that gains relative to the European core have crawled to a standstill since that period. It remains to be seen whether this is permanent or a temporary adjustment after the ~1995-2007 period of rapid convergence.

    Nominal GDP is what really matters when we’re talking about international financial flows and trade.

    Put simply, nominal GDP indicates the country’s “weight” in international markets, its “purchasing power” and capacity to absorb imports. Eastern Europe can grow its GDP all it wants, but if it won’t buy more Ukrainian goods, then how is their growth going to benefit the Ukraine?

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    • Replies: @Mr. Hack

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)...The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade...As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%...On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years - a period foreseen in the Agreement.
     
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en


    It looks to me as if Putin's policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the 'triune Russia' theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia's direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It's clear that Ukraine's future will be directly linked to the EU's for some time to come.

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  69. Mr. Hack says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Nominal GDP is what really matters when we're talking about international financial flows and trade.

    Put simply, nominal GDP indicates the country's "weight" in international markets, its "purchasing power" and capacity to absorb imports. Eastern Europe can grow its GDP all it wants, but if it won't buy more Ukrainian goods, then how is their growth going to benefit the Ukraine?

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)…The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade…As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%…On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years – a period foreseen in the Agreement.

    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en

    It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia’s direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.

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    • Replies: @Mr. Hack

    It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously.
     
    Sorry, I meant:

    It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that Anatoly clings to so tenaciously

     

    Subconsciously, I think that AP's first name is Anatoly too...just guessing? :-)
    , @Greasy William

    It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.
     
    That doesn't sound like a good thing for Ukrainians.
    , @RadicalCenter
    The largest, most supposedly prosperous EU countries, Germany and France, will find it impossible to continue providing even half of their current welfare state and standard of living to their own people, given the growing cost of subsidizing the African and muslim hordes who have set up permanent residence there. Forget about aid to Ukraine. Forget even about most purchase of foodstuffs or whatever else from Ukraine.

    Relying on people who will not even have children or defend their own existing women and children -my people in Europe - is a fool’s bet. Europeans lack the common sense and courage to be good allies, and they will soon lack the resources to be good trading partners either.

    However difficult emotionally, Ukraine ought to seek customs union, favorable trade agreements, and the like with Russia and other Eastern European countries. Including countries that hopefully have the sense to leave the eu soon, like Hungary and Austria and Poland.

    , @RadicalCenter
    PS What exactly was Putin supposed to do? Do you seriously expect the leader of Russia to allow an aggressive, hostile, untrustworthy power like the US government to install naval and land military bases in Crimea, further encircling and hemming in Russia? Because that is exactly what would have happened if Russia hadn’t re-taken the Crimea.

    I have no illusions about Putin or Russia. Let’s not have any illusions about the US gov and its track record and sick ambitions either.

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  70. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mr. Hack

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)...The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade...As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%...On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years - a period foreseen in the Agreement.
     
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en


    It looks to me as if Putin's policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the 'triune Russia' theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia's direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It's clear that Ukraine's future will be directly linked to the EU's for some time to come.

    It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously.

    Sorry, I meant:

    It looks to me as if Putin’s policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the ‘triune Russia’ theory, that Anatoly clings to so tenaciously

    Subconsciously, I think that AP’s first name is Anatoly too…just guessing? :-)

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  71. I don’t understand what “truine Russia” means. There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached. The Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, i

    There are 44 million people resident, a half-a-dozen cities with populations over 600,000, $370 bn of business and industry, and has a favorable balance of trade in foodstuffs. The notion that it isn't 'viable' is one of those lies the more brazen sort of Russian nationalist is wont to tell.
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  72. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's growth is below global average, despite the fact that the country currently has some African levels GDP per capita.

    In other words, the world is leaving Ukraine behind. It's kinda funny, telling yourself that you're a European country, while living like Nigerians, but Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections!

    That's what I meant when I said that Ukraine lacks economic potential: it is stuck in a rut, with no clear way out.

    telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians,

    Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867.

    Ukraine’s Human Development Index score is the same as Armenia’s at .743; Nigeria’s is at .527.

    (although Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries’ HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectively).

    Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections

    Central Africa’s Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

    You are soooo objective.

    There is a small oil-rich central African country that is wealthier than Ukraine – Equatorial Guinea. Alas, its per capita GDP PPP of $25,535 places it ahead of Russia also.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867
     
    Your point? These are comparable figures. It's even closer in nominal terms with Nigeria just ahead. What's more Nigeria is growing much faster.

    That means the Ukraine will be trailing Nigeria for the rest of its independence. Think about that!

    BTW, I'd love to hear how Karlin can explain that - clearly national IQ isn't everything.
    , @Gerard2

    similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries’ HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectivel
     
    errrmmm.....that slightly higher HDI score is only because of the Soviet legacy in culture ,education and creating all industry in Ukraine you demented fuckwit. As such it is an artificial score that ,if anything ,shows even more what a failed fuckedup state Ukraine is,precisely because is has the lowest possible development of human potential.

    The utilisation of that education and industry must be the worst of any country or statelet that has existed in history you thick idiot. This is why all the African comparisons are fully appropriate to this demented ,failed state and artificial country Ukraine.

    Central Africa’s Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.
     
    As with the low consumption of oil comment...a disinfo fuckwit as yourself is just wasting everyones time. Central Africa he clearly means as the latitude line going through that west coast containing countries like Nigeria,Cameroon,Ghana and so on. Ghana ...another country that has succeeded more than Ukraine in the last decade. The failing infrastructure, refugee like exodus long after the 1990's, sudden influx of a 3rd world healthcare with all sorts of diseases infiltrating Ukraine, useless education system, wearing of the vishivanka like the most primitive tribe in the underdeveloped parts of Africa,being one of the very few countries to still not have gone past their 1991 GDP, idiotic governance,making of banana-republic decisions, millions of people struggling to live........Ukraine is an african country located in Europe.
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  73. Mr. Hack says:

    There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached.

    You must still believe in Santa Clause too, Tovarishch? :-)

    Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste

    .
    Total nonsense! Apparently you have reading comprehension problems, and aren’t able to put 2 +2 together. Ukraine’s situation will steadily get better as its trade relations with the EU increase over time. I suspect that Russia and its true believers in the ‘triune Russia’ will someday soon discover that Ukraine is indeed a separate country, with a unique history and culture all its own, and that reestablishing good neighborly relations including trade is the way to go, not stupid and costly and unmanageable wars with its neighbor, that only lead to decline for all involved.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Yes, the EU will have massive permanent welfare dependency, entire cities that are no-go zones for nonMuslims, more mosques than factories, more homosexual bars than churches, and more bitter barren women than children (at least until the Muslims have the numbers to “address” that first part), and a booming trade in korans, hijabs, and halal meats. What a glorious economy and culture to hitch ones wagon to. What attractive trading partners and allies for the Ukrainians.

    Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

    Congratulations to the Europeans, and to the government ruling “my” country (the USA), for making Russia look like the better option. That took some work.

    , @RadicalCenter
    Nice use of the Soviet-era Russian word for “comrade.” Snark is always a good substitute for argument, evidence, and logic.
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  74. @AP

    telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians,
     
    Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria's is $5,867.

    Ukraine's Human Development Index score is the same as Armenia's at .743; Nigeria's is at .527.

    (although Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries' HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectively).

    Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections
     
    Central Africa's Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

    You are soooo objective.

    There is a small oil-rich central African country that is wealthier than Ukraine - Equatorial Guinea. Alas, its per capita GDP PPP of $25,535 places it ahead of Russia also.

    Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867

    Your point? These are comparable figures. It’s even closer in nominal terms with Nigeria just ahead. What’s more Nigeria is growing much faster.

    That means the Ukraine will be trailing Nigeria for the rest of its independence. Think about that!

    BTW, I’d love to hear how Karlin can explain that – clearly national IQ isn’t everything.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Well, it doesn't explain absolutely everything, circumstances matter, but neither countries are very puzzling.

    Ukraine is a negative outlier due to Communist legacy + gross economic mismanagement (roving bandits) ever since.

    Nigeria is a somewhat positive outlier due to oil windfall + also possibly an Igbo smart fraction.
    , @AP

    What’s more Nigeria is growing much faster.
     
    In 2016 Nigeria's nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine's grew 2.7%.

    IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

    Ukraine's forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

    Given Ukraine's declining and Nigeria's growing population, per capita numbers have lagged more for Nigeria in 2016.

    You are sooo objective.
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  75. @Felix Keverich

    Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867
     
    Your point? These are comparable figures. It's even closer in nominal terms with Nigeria just ahead. What's more Nigeria is growing much faster.

    That means the Ukraine will be trailing Nigeria for the rest of its independence. Think about that!

    BTW, I'd love to hear how Karlin can explain that - clearly national IQ isn't everything.

    Well, it doesn’t explain absolutely everything, circumstances matter, but neither countries are very puzzling.

    Ukraine is a negative outlier due to Communist legacy + gross economic mismanagement (roving bandits) ever since.

    Nigeria is a somewhat positive outlier due to oil windfall + also possibly an Igbo smart fraction.

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    • Replies: @AP
    He's just wrong. As I posted in my reply to him:

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

    IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

    Ukraine’s forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

    Given Ukraine’s declining and Nigeria’s growing population, per capita numbers make the differences even greater.

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  76. AP says:
    @anonymous coward
    Gerard2 isn't "barking", he's right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

    (Hardly a surprise if you know anything about the history of that particular geographic region.)

    Gerard2 isn’t “barking”, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.

    Says the guy who believes stuff like the Tsars persecuted the Orthodox Church more than did the Soviets, or that Russia is as deeply religious country.

    Let’s look at the barking:

    Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017…Russia, on the other hand is now past “break-even’ stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop

    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.

    More barking:

    Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil

    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.

    Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot……they are directly dependent on them…and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine

    Lviv oblast’s GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it’s doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

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    • Replies: @Gerard2

    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.
     
    hahahahahahaa! More attention-whoring, sociopathic moron nonsense. Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0% you idiot...with the economic development minister saying that it will reach 2.2%. That pretty much takes it up to break-even ( and I think the GDP loss in 2015 was actually 2.6%)...an achievement that will take Ukraine probably 20 years to reach ( with Ukraine being one of the few and maybe the ONLY country in the world to have a lower GDP now , than in 1991)

    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.
     
    As expected from a dipshit, a deflection with gibberish away from my main point. Just because I did not say MOST countries like this have a low consumption of oil, doesn't make my point any less correct you ignorant prick. Coal cant seriously be compared to Oil economically either, and the point is entirely accurate for Angola,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,Qatar,Indonesia and so on.

    Lviv oblast’s GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it’s doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

     

    Again this is more fantasist garbage about the dump Lvov and it's economy. Big lack of investment, big lack of tourism (Russians, of course, were the large majority of foreign visitors), loss of population from Lvov into Poland at a much greater rate than it's deindustrialisation and the "Ukrainians" fondness for telling bullshit.

    So we are in the position where a parasite, failed , 404 nation like Ukraine has done shitter than already shit prediction of its crap economy for the year expected ( which would be nothing and even worse without IMF handouts, US and IMF funding their criminal war , Russian investment, Russian banks, Ukrainian remittances from Russia(4%) and gas transit fees (2% of GDP,maybe more), all it's industries ( even agriculture) are failing, and the country is more in the control of oligarchs...most of these oligarchs controlled by the US but who have made most of their money from or in Russia.

    Russia on the other hand, with about 2.1% growth ,is doing 50% better than expected you idiot...this despite sanctions. Fantastic.The recession in 2015/2016 would have been significantly less had their been gradual and consistent declines in oil.....not sudden large changes...thus giving the Russian finance Ministry a fighting chance to prepare accordingly.

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.
     
    errrr.....2.7% is not an true figure because it is based on bullshit Ukrop lies - not only that but it is a pitifully small figure for a country that has experienced over 15% GDP loss for the 2 years before that you idiot(and a worse than average performance before that as well). Nigeria had experienced more war in 2015 and 2016 than "Ukraine" did in that time ( with it's defence not paid for by the IMF and the US to the same degree as the failed Ukrainian military has), has experienced the oil price drop harder, doesn't have the great Soviet legacy of mass, high-class education..... but the colonial legacy of substandard education...and has a big portion of the country under Sharia Law.....despite all that it is economically outperforming Ukraine throughout the 21st century you cretin with Kiev barely able to match even Lagos...whereas Ukraine is declining to the point of sudden influx 3rd world diseases recently coming into in, several Ukrainian economic and political decisions are worse than those typical of 3rd world banana republics...and even with Nigerias problems in health.....it is still likely to outperform Ukraine in health,productivity and other areas.

    It is beyond idiotic to not include the Nigerian economic figures of 2014 and 2015, when Ukraine has experienced a double-digit recession in that time (and way below average of an already poor world economic gdp performance from 2008-2014)...but then you are a complete dipshit
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  77. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Ukraine’s per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria’s is $5,867
     
    Your point? These are comparable figures. It's even closer in nominal terms with Nigeria just ahead. What's more Nigeria is growing much faster.

    That means the Ukraine will be trailing Nigeria for the rest of its independence. Think about that!

    BTW, I'd love to hear how Karlin can explain that - clearly national IQ isn't everything.

    What’s more Nigeria is growing much faster.

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

    IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

    Ukraine’s forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

    Given Ukraine’s declining and Nigeria’s growing population, per capita numbers have lagged more for Nigeria in 2016.

    You are sooo objective.

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  78. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Well, it doesn't explain absolutely everything, circumstances matter, but neither countries are very puzzling.

    Ukraine is a negative outlier due to Communist legacy + gross economic mismanagement (roving bandits) ever since.

    Nigeria is a somewhat positive outlier due to oil windfall + also possibly an Igbo smart fraction.

    He’s just wrong. As I posted in my reply to him:

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

    IMF is forecasting .8% growth for Nigeria in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018.

    Ukraine’s forecasts are 2.0 % in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018.

    Given Ukraine’s declining and Nigeria’s growing population, per capita numbers make the differences even greater.

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  79. @Mr. Hack

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)...The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade...As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%...On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years - a period foreseen in the Agreement.
     
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en


    It looks to me as if Putin's policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the 'triune Russia' theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia's direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It's clear that Ukraine's future will be directly linked to the EU's for some time to come.

    It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.

    That doesn’t sound like a good thing for Ukrainians.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    So, what course of action would be preferable? Don't forget that one of Karlin's incessant themes as of late is that Russia doesn't have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas, much less all of Ukraine...I think that he's correct here!
    , @Philip Owen
    Oil prices fell in 2014, for 25+ years. Oil consumers, foremost amongst them the EU, are the growth engines now.
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  80. @Anatoly Karlin
    Not really a fair comparison - the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars even the laggard Hungary is doing better now than in 2008.

    It is true however that gains relative to the European core have crawled to a standstill since that period. It remains to be seen whether this is permanent or a temporary adjustment after the ~1995-2007 period of rapid convergence.

    Not really a fair comparison – the forint devalued, in PPP constant dollars

    Also at least 5% of the population left. (Mostly highly productive young people.) So per capita GDP is higher.

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  81. Mr. Hack says:
    @Greasy William

    It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.
     
    That doesn't sound like a good thing for Ukrainians.

    So, what course of action would be preferable? Don’t forget that one of Karlin’s incessant themes as of late is that Russia doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas, much less all of Ukraine…I think that he’s correct here!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    ... doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas
     
    No I don't recall saying that. Please remind me.

    In reality what Russia gives the Donbass is modest and the entire region should be self-financing under normal conditions.
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  82. Art Deco says:
    @Felix Keverich
    I don't understand what "truine Russia" means. There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached. The Ukraine simply isn't viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste.

    Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, i

    There are 44 million people resident, a half-a-dozen cities with populations over 600,000, $370 bn of business and industry, and has a favorable balance of trade in foodstuffs. The notion that it isn’t ‘viable’ is one of those lies the more brazen sort of Russian nationalist is wont to tell.

    Read More
    • Agree: Mr. Hack
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  83. @Mr. Hack
    So, what course of action would be preferable? Don't forget that one of Karlin's incessant themes as of late is that Russia doesn't have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas, much less all of Ukraine...I think that he's correct here!

    … doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas

    No I don’t recall saying that. Please remind me.

    In reality what Russia gives the Donbass is modest and the entire region should be self-financing under normal conditions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    Sorry if I've misconstrued you. It seems that initial Russian propaganda circa 2014 helped promote a picture of a beneficent Mother Russia, willing to even increase pension payouts to pensioners in Donbas. Apparently, citizens of Crimea had their pension payments absorbed and increased over Ukrainian ones. Russia of course is hesitant to annex any more Ukrainian territory, and absorb any more social program payouts.
    , @Mr. Hack
    Say Anatoly, I’ve had all of my comments at UNZ put on ‘Your comment is awaiting moderation.’ ever since I started commenting at your blog (and others at UNZ) since I first started, about 8 months ago.
    Since then, I’ve never had even one single comment deleted by Big Brother. Is there any way to change my status, for as you see, my views aren’t all that controversial here? :-)

    AK: Everybody's comments on this site are premoderated (except on mine; Ron made the exception for my blog at my own request).
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  84. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    ... doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas
     
    No I don't recall saying that. Please remind me.

    In reality what Russia gives the Donbass is modest and the entire region should be self-financing under normal conditions.

    Sorry if I’ve misconstrued you. It seems that initial Russian propaganda circa 2014 helped promote a picture of a beneficent Mother Russia, willing to even increase pension payouts to pensioners in Donbas. Apparently, citizens of Crimea had their pension payments absorbed and increased over Ukrainian ones. Russia of course is hesitant to annex any more Ukrainian territory, and absorb any more social program payouts.

    Read More
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  85. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    The Ukrainians will stay around longer than the English. The English not only fail to reproduce, but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace. And the English collapse is still far away. So Ukrainian demographics is not going to hinder their economic performance for some time.

    The English not only fail to reproduce

    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52). Note that in Northern Ireland where non-European migrants are rare the TFR was 1,95, higher than in France or America.

    but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace.

    Pray for Brexit. A worse economic performance should discourage that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52).
     
    What about TFR for native English? Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.
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  86. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    ... doesn’t have the wherewithal to help finance the Donbas
     
    No I don't recall saying that. Please remind me.

    In reality what Russia gives the Donbass is modest and the entire region should be self-financing under normal conditions.

    Say Anatoly, I’ve had all of my comments at UNZ put on ‘Your comment is awaiting moderation.’ ever since I started commenting at your blog (and others at UNZ) since I first started, about 8 months ago.
    Since then, I’ve never had even one single comment deleted by Big Brother. Is there any way to change my status, for as you see, my views aren’t all that controversial here? :-)

    AK: Everybody’s comments on this site are premoderated (except on mine; Ron made the exception for my blog at my own request).

    Read More
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  87. @Mitleser
    The Ukraine is big enough for both sides, though there are signs that Brüssel is less and less willing to share with the Chinese.

    When the USA becomes unable to credibly threaten sustained conventional force in Ukraine, as we will, the European countries themselves will not be able to do much with their pathetic militaries and declining native populations. They will have their hands full with a never ending Muslim and African crime wave, far greater than what has already developed, and ultimately large parts of their countries will be effectively conquered by Muslims.

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

    “The EU”, if it still exists in twenty years, will have no opinion re Ukraine that China need seriously worry about.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.
     
    Not sure about that.
    The Ukraine reminds me sometimes of Norkland: Russian Edition and considering how much the Chinese failed to influence the DPRK...
    , @Anonymous
    For someone who bred out of his own white race, RadicalCenter, your preoccupation with Eastern European birth rates seems a bit strange. You should worry a bit more about your own country. In fact, the white birthrate in the US has crashed and the TFRs for whites in the US are currently not higher than in many post-Soviet states, that is, around 1.7. White American and Russian birthrates currently are not all that much better than Western Ukrainian, Belarussian or Lithuanian.

    Regarding the Chinese - again, I'd worry about yourself (especially the future generations). The Chinese are not just buying up hot properties in Southern California and the big West coast cities, such as Seattle, San Fran, etc, forcing local middle class whites into the boonies where they are pauperized by low job prospects. The Chinese are buying up real estate in small towns of America. Why don't you worry about that first.
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  88. AP says:
    @Mitleser

    The English not only fail to reproduce
     
    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52). Note that in Northern Ireland where non-European migrants are rare the TFR was 1,95, higher than in France or America.

    but they also are importing brown and black masses at a really fast pace.
     
    Pray for Brexit. A worse economic performance should discourage that.

    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52).

    What about TFR for native English? Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    UK TFRs for 2016 released today

    UK 1.79

    Regionally

    Northern Ireland 1.95 (Highest - Mid-Ulster and Newry, Mourne & Down both 2.15, lowest - Belfast 1.77)

    West Midlands 1.91 (Highest - East Staffordshire 2.14, lowest Newcastle-under-Lyme 1.48, notable mention Shropshire 1.89 )

    East England 1.91 (Highest - Forest Heath 2.31, lowest - City of Cambridge 1.45)

    Northwest England 1.85 (Highest - Blackburn & Darwen 2.25, lowest - City of Lancaster 1.62)

    Southeast England 1.84 (Highest - Slough 2.29, lowest - Brighton & Hove 1.30)

    Yorkshire & Humber 1.82 (Highest - City of Bradford 2.21, lowest - City of York 1.37)

    East Midlands 1.82 (Highest - Corby 2.15, lowest - City of Lincoln 1.56)

    Southwest England 1.79 (Highest - Forest of Dean 2.06, lowest - City of Exeter 1.34)

    Wales 1.74 (Highest - Denbighshire 2.09, lowest - City of Cardiff 1.59)

    Northeast England 1.72 (Highest - Middlesbrough 1.98, Lowest - City of Newcastle-upon-Tyne 1.56)

    London 1.72 (Highest - Barking & Dagenham 2.47, lowest City of London 0.75)

    Scotland 1.52 (Highest - Shetland Islands 2.02, lowest - City of Edinburgh 1.22)
     
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143586150&postcount=35280

    Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.
     
    And Northern Ireland does not? Neither are English.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Probably close to the UK average, or indeed equal to it, considering Scotland is much lower.

    When at school (Lancaster, North-West England) there was a poll in my classroom on how many brothers/sisters everyone had; out of around ~25 people, I was the sole only child, most had 1-2, a few 3 or 4.
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  89. Mitleser says:
    @RadicalCenter
    When the USA becomes unable to credibly threaten sustained conventional force in Ukraine, as we will, the European countries themselves will not be able to do much with their pathetic militaries and declining native populations. They will have their hands full with a never ending Muslim and African crime wave, far greater than what has already developed, and ultimately large parts of their countries will be effectively conquered by Muslims.

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

    “The EU”, if it still exists in twenty years, will have no opinion re Ukraine that China need seriously worry about.

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

    Not sure about that.
    The Ukraine reminds me sometimes of Norkland: Russian Edition and considering how much the Chinese failed to influence the DPRK…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Great. Giant statues of Nadiya Savchenko are exactly what this world needs now.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Isn't Ukraine larger and more fertile agriculturally than North Korea? It would, therefore, be more important to China in feeding its own vast population, and China would be willing to do whatever it takes to secure control over Ukraine's ag output.
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  90. Mitleser says:
    @AP

    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52).
     
    What about TFR for native English? Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

    UK TFRs for 2016 released today

    UK 1.79

    Regionally

    Northern Ireland 1.95 (Highest – Mid-Ulster and Newry, Mourne & Down both 2.15, lowest – Belfast 1.77)

    West Midlands 1.91 (Highest – East Staffordshire 2.14, lowest Newcastle-under-Lyme 1.48, notable mention Shropshire 1.89 )

    East England 1.91 (Highest – Forest Heath 2.31, lowest – City of Cambridge 1.45)

    Northwest England 1.85 (Highest – Blackburn & Darwen 2.25, lowest – City of Lancaster 1.62)

    Southeast England 1.84 (Highest – Slough 2.29, lowest – Brighton & Hove 1.30)

    Yorkshire & Humber 1.82 (Highest – City of Bradford 2.21, lowest – City of York 1.37)

    East Midlands 1.82 (Highest – Corby 2.15, lowest – City of Lincoln 1.56)

    Southwest England 1.79 (Highest – Forest of Dean 2.06, lowest – City of Exeter 1.34)

    Wales 1.74 (Highest – Denbighshire 2.09, lowest – City of Cardiff 1.59)

    Northeast England 1.72 (Highest – Middlesbrough 1.98, Lowest – City of Newcastle-upon-Tyne 1.56)

    London 1.72 (Highest – Barking & Dagenham 2.47, lowest City of London 0.75)

    Scotland 1.52 (Highest – Shetland Islands 2.02, lowest – City of Edinburgh 1.22)

    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143586150&postcount=35280

    Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

    And Northern Ireland does not? Neither are English.

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    The low TCR's are all student cities with large populations of single young women. The high TFR's are often places that have been passed by. and seem to be the very high immigration areas of pre EU times or completely native with not much in between.
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  91. @AP

    TFR in UK (1,79) is way higher than in the Ukraine (1,47) and it would be even higher without Scotland (1,52).
     
    What about TFR for native English? Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.

    Probably close to the UK average, or indeed equal to it, considering Scotland is much lower.

    When at school (Lancaster, North-West England) there was a poll in my classroom on how many brothers/sisters everyone had; out of around ~25 people, I was the sole only child, most had 1-2, a few 3 or 4.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Greasy William
    what do your parents think of your move back to the Motherland?
    , @Gerard2
    Anatoly...when will you next be on Crosstalk? You were on once, and that was it! ...and when will you be on any of the Russian talkshows?...its a good source of money...and I hear the Ukrainians,Polish dickhead and Michael Bom dimwit are earning sizeable amounts from it. Russia, unlike Ukraine and unlike most western countries ..actually allows on all types of viewpoints...even the most anti-patriotic liberast clowns (who if anything are massively overrepresented on Russian federal TV and radio)
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  92. @Anatoly Karlin
    Probably close to the UK average, or indeed equal to it, considering Scotland is much lower.

    When at school (Lancaster, North-West England) there was a poll in my classroom on how many brothers/sisters everyone had; out of around ~25 people, I was the sole only child, most had 1-2, a few 3 or 4.

    what do your parents think of your move back to the Motherland?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    They're happy he found a way to shuck off that nutty girlfriend. Now if she would quit calling them....
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  93. @Mitleser

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.
     
    Not sure about that.
    The Ukraine reminds me sometimes of Norkland: Russian Edition and considering how much the Chinese failed to influence the DPRK...

    Great. Giant statues of Nadiya Savchenko are exactly what this world needs now.

    Read More
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  94. Kimppis says:
    @Philip Owen
    Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.

    I think I saw you mention that before… You have no idea what you’re talking about.

    Okay, that is total nonsense. Armata doesn’t have any “French” components, certainly not any major ones.

    And 2030 sounds totally ridiculous, who would actually ever make than kind of a prediction? How could it ever take that long to replace tank components – for Russia?

    It’s like Russia doesn’t have a full-scale, internationally competitive MIC and that the Russian military and MIC haven’t been considerably modernized during the last 5-10 years. Why not 2050? 2300?

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Optics and fire control.
    , @Philip Owen
    Budget. As Medvedev said. There is no money.
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  95. @Mitleser
    What French components?

    Optics and fire control system.

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  96. @Mitleser
    Friendly reminder that PO is a hardcore remainer.

    Before the vote, yes. Since a soft leaver. Vote on terms, stay in single market or at least CU.

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  97. @Kimppis
    I think I saw you mention that before... You have no idea what you're talking about.

    Okay, that is total nonsense. Armata doesn't have any "French" components, certainly not any major ones.

    And 2030 sounds totally ridiculous, who would actually ever make than kind of a prediction? How could it ever take that long to replace tank components - for Russia?

    It's like Russia doesn't have a full-scale, internationally competitive MIC and that the Russian military and MIC haven't been considerably modernized during the last 5-10 years. Why not 2050? 2300?

    Optics and fire control.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Yeah, no. Simply not true.

    Russia has enough money for the military modernization and all current projects. Armata is basically finished at this point, ffs. You seriously think Russia doesn't have modern optics and fire control systems? And it would somehow take them over 10 years (!!!) to develop those!? Again, why not 100? Where does that 2030 come from? 2020 would atleast sound somewhat believable (and you would still be wrong).

    Su-35 is operational (just to make a comparison to Armata and its electronics), the first photo evidence very recently proved that the new engine for Su-57 really does (already!) exist, they just rolled out a new Tu-160 and an A-100 (!), unveiled a whole set of heavy drones, which Russia didn't have previously... and I could go on and on, but "no moneys"!? Not to mention that dozens of T-14s have actually already been produced (before the actual production has even started)!? Right...

    You also seem to still think that Russia's economic growth is at -0.2%, when it actually is at +2%. Sums it up really. Your "knowledge" about the Russian military seems to also be from 2007, and I'm being generous.

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  98. @Kimppis
    I think I saw you mention that before... You have no idea what you're talking about.

    Okay, that is total nonsense. Armata doesn't have any "French" components, certainly not any major ones.

    And 2030 sounds totally ridiculous, who would actually ever make than kind of a prediction? How could it ever take that long to replace tank components - for Russia?

    It's like Russia doesn't have a full-scale, internationally competitive MIC and that the Russian military and MIC haven't been considerably modernized during the last 5-10 years. Why not 2050? 2300?

    Budget. As Medvedev said. There is no money.

    Read More
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  99. @Mitleser

    UK TFRs for 2016 released today

    UK 1.79

    Regionally

    Northern Ireland 1.95 (Highest - Mid-Ulster and Newry, Mourne & Down both 2.15, lowest - Belfast 1.77)

    West Midlands 1.91 (Highest - East Staffordshire 2.14, lowest Newcastle-under-Lyme 1.48, notable mention Shropshire 1.89 )

    East England 1.91 (Highest - Forest Heath 2.31, lowest - City of Cambridge 1.45)

    Northwest England 1.85 (Highest - Blackburn & Darwen 2.25, lowest - City of Lancaster 1.62)

    Southeast England 1.84 (Highest - Slough 2.29, lowest - Brighton & Hove 1.30)

    Yorkshire & Humber 1.82 (Highest - City of Bradford 2.21, lowest - City of York 1.37)

    East Midlands 1.82 (Highest - Corby 2.15, lowest - City of Lincoln 1.56)

    Southwest England 1.79 (Highest - Forest of Dean 2.06, lowest - City of Exeter 1.34)

    Wales 1.74 (Highest - Denbighshire 2.09, lowest - City of Cardiff 1.59)

    Northeast England 1.72 (Highest - Middlesbrough 1.98, Lowest - City of Newcastle-upon-Tyne 1.56)

    London 1.72 (Highest - Barking & Dagenham 2.47, lowest City of London 0.75)

    Scotland 1.52 (Highest - Shetland Islands 2.02, lowest - City of Edinburgh 1.22)
     
    http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=143586150&postcount=35280

    Scotland is much less diverse and may reflect native TFR.
     
    And Northern Ireland does not? Neither are English.

    The low TCR’s are all student cities with large populations of single young women. The high TFR’s are often places that have been passed by. and seem to be the very high immigration areas of pre EU times or completely native with not much in between.

    Read More
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  100. @Greasy William

    It’s clear that Ukraine’s future will be directly linked to the EU’s for some time to come.
     
    That doesn't sound like a good thing for Ukrainians.

    Oil prices fell in 2014, for 25+ years. Oil consumers, foremost amongst them the EU, are the growth engines now.

    Read More
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  101. @Felix Keverich
    lol EU is currently "booming" at an annual rate of 2%. Russia will have no trouble "keeping up".

    Russia is at -0.2% and has restricted access to capital.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Russian GDP is projected to grow 1.7-2.2% in 2017. Russian companies can borrow domestically and do not really need Western capital.
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  102. Art Deco says:
    @Greasy William
    what do your parents think of your move back to the Motherland?

    They’re happy he found a way to shuck off that nutty girlfriend. Now if she would quit calling them….

    Read More
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  103. @Philip Owen
    Russia is at -0.2% and has restricted access to capital.

    Russian GDP is projected to grow 1.7-2.2% in 2017. Russian companies can borrow domestically and do not really need Western capital.

    Read More
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  104. A big happy Thanksgiving to all of the American members of the Unz/Anatoly commetariat. Even Seamus and 5371.

    And of course to Anatoly himself, a happy Kwanzaa.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Wishing you a happy and blessed Thanksgiving, as well, GW.

    I'll even wish Happy Thanksgiving to my buddy Corvinus ;)
    Seriously, I wish the best for all of you and your families.
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  105. @Mitleser

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.
     
    Not sure about that.
    The Ukraine reminds me sometimes of Norkland: Russian Edition and considering how much the Chinese failed to influence the DPRK...

    Isn’t Ukraine larger and more fertile agriculturally than North Korea? It would, therefore, be more important to China in feeding its own vast population, and China would be willing to do whatever it takes to secure control over Ukraine’s ag output.

    Read More
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  106. @Greasy William
    A big happy Thanksgiving to all of the American members of the Unz/Anatoly commetariat. Even Seamus and 5371.

    And of course to Anatoly himself, a happy Kwanzaa.

    Wishing you a happy and blessed Thanksgiving, as well, GW.

    I’ll even wish Happy Thanksgiving to my buddy Corvinus ;)
    Seriously, I wish the best for all of you and your families.

    Read More
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  107. Gerard2 says:
    @AP

    Gerard2 isn’t “barking”, he’s right on every single point. Ukraine is a failed state and only getting more failed as years go by.
     
    Says the guy who believes stuff like the Tsars persecuted the Orthodox Church more than did the Soviets, or that Russia is as deeply religious country.

    Let's look at the barking:

    Russia is projected to grow 2.1% in 2017...Russia, on the other hand is now past “break-even’ stage from before the sanctions & oil price drop
     
    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.

    More barking:

    Poor countries with oil will have a low consumption of oil
     
    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.

    Donbass problems cant be dissassociated with different regions of Ukraine you idiot……they are directly dependent on them…and they have got significantly poorer as individuals and in quality of government and private services- all throughout Ukraine
     
    Lviv oblast's GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it's doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

    [MORE]

    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.

    hahahahahahaa! More attention-whoring, sociopathic moron nonsense. Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0% you idiot…with the economic development minister saying that it will reach 2.2%. That pretty much takes it up to break-even ( and I think the GDP loss in 2015 was actually 2.6%)…an achievement that will take Ukraine probably 20 years to reach ( with Ukraine being one of the few and maybe the ONLY country in the world to have a lower GDP now , than in 1991)

    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.

    As expected from a dipshit, a deflection with gibberish away from my main point. Just because I did not say MOST countries like this have a low consumption of oil, doesn’t make my point any less correct you ignorant prick. Coal cant seriously be compared to Oil economically either, and the point is entirely accurate for Angola,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,Qatar,Indonesia and so on.

    Lviv oblast’s GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it’s doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

    Again this is more fantasist garbage about the dump Lvov and it’s economy. Big lack of investment, big lack of tourism (Russians, of course, were the large majority of foreign visitors), loss of population from Lvov into Poland at a much greater rate than it’s deindustrialisation and the “Ukrainians” fondness for telling bullshit.

    So we are in the position where a parasite, failed , 404 nation like Ukraine has done shitter than already shit prediction of its crap economy for the year expected ( which would be nothing and even worse without IMF handouts, US and IMF funding their criminal war , Russian investment, Russian banks, Ukrainian remittances from Russia(4%) and gas transit fees (2% of GDP,maybe more), all it’s industries ( even agriculture) are failing, and the country is more in the control of oligarchs…most of these oligarchs controlled by the US but who have made most of their money from or in Russia.

    Russia on the other hand, with about 2.1% growth ,is doing 50% better than expected you idiot…this despite sanctions. Fantastic.The recession in 2015/2016 would have been significantly less had their been gradual and consistent declines in oil…..not sudden large changes…thus giving the Russian finance Ministry a fighting chance to prepare accordingly.

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.

    errrr…..2.7% is not an true figure because it is based on bullshit Ukrop lies – not only that but it is a pitifully small figure for a country that has experienced over 15% GDP loss for the 2 years before that you idiot(and a worse than average performance before that as well). Nigeria had experienced more war in 2015 and 2016 than “Ukraine” did in that time ( with it’s defence not paid for by the IMF and the US to the same degree as the failed Ukrainian military has), has experienced the oil price drop harder, doesn’t have the great Soviet legacy of mass, high-class education….. but the colonial legacy of substandard education…and has a big portion of the country under Sharia Law…..despite all that it is economically outperforming Ukraine throughout the 21st century you cretin with Kiev barely able to match even Lagos…whereas Ukraine is declining to the point of sudden influx 3rd world diseases recently coming into in, several Ukrainian economic and political decisions are worse than those typical of 3rd world banana republics…and even with Nigerias problems in health…..it is still likely to outperform Ukraine in health,productivity and other areas.

    It is beyond idiotic to not include the Nigerian economic figures of 2014 and 2015, when Ukraine has experienced a double-digit recession in that time (and way below average of an already poor world economic gdp performance from 2008-2014)…but then you are a complete dipshit

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP


    You failed again Retard2:

    Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0%
     
    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.

    https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/gdp

    The Russian recovery lost up steam in the third quarter of 2017, waning from the second quarter’s solid pace of growth. A preliminary estimate released by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 13 November showed that GDP increased 1.8% year-on-year in Q3.

    According to TASS 7 days ago Russia is forecasting 1.8% growth for 2017.

    So Russia is not going to break even in 2017, it would have needed 2.3% growth for that.

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even. It's funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.

    Everything else you write is about as failed as this, my poor stalker.
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  108. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @RadicalCenter
    When the USA becomes unable to credibly threaten sustained conventional force in Ukraine, as we will, the European countries themselves will not be able to do much with their pathetic militaries and declining native populations. They will have their hands full with a never ending Muslim and African crime wave, far greater than what has already developed, and ultimately large parts of their countries will be effectively conquered by Muslims.

    China may be able to dictate terms to Ukraine. China won’t need to invade, just buy and lease vast tracts of agricultural land there — and perhaps gradually station advisors, guarded by at first a few thousand troops.

    “The EU”, if it still exists in twenty years, will have no opinion re Ukraine that China need seriously worry about.

    For someone who bred out of his own white race, RadicalCenter, your preoccupation with Eastern European birth rates seems a bit strange. You should worry a bit more about your own country. In fact, the white birthrate in the US has crashed and the TFRs for whites in the US are currently not higher than in many post-Soviet states, that is, around 1.7. White American and Russian birthrates currently are not all that much better than Western Ukrainian, Belarussian or Lithuanian.

    Regarding the Chinese – again, I’d worry about yourself (especially the future generations). The Chinese are not just buying up hot properties in Southern California and the big West coast cities, such as Seattle, San Fran, etc, forcing local middle class whites into the boonies where they are pauperized by low job prospects. The Chinese are buying up real estate in small towns of America. Why don’t you worry about that first.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    I worry about both. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

    My children, by the way, speak better English, know more about American and Western history, are more proud of Western civilization, are less inclined to take shit from PC lefties, more willing to expend effort to preserve our traditions, and will be more able and ready and willing to defend their family and neighborhood and nation with firearms, than most white kids born to two white parents here in the USA.

    I have written to, emailed, and called my fed and State reps to demand a crackdown on both legal and illegal immigration, as well as restrictions on foreign ownership of land and resources here. They haven’t listened, as you may have noticed. I have donated to p9litical candidates and groups more than I can afford. I have worn political shirts and been spit on and hit for my trouble. I have attended rallies and been threatened, followed, and surveilled for it, at risk to my career. I have forwarded columns and information to literally a couple thousand people, friends, relatives, coworkers, acquaintances to try to educate and influence and inspire them to also demand change.

    All while raising three children, losing a parent, and staring to care for the other parent who is declining in health.

    Sorry my efforts don’t meet your lofty standards.

    Why don’t you specify in detail what you have done that is superior in these regards. Tell us how many children you have and exactly what you are doing to raise them right and influence and restore something of our culture and liberty. Then get a consistent screen name that we can tell apart from others.

    , @RadicalCenter
    PS good point about China buying up property everywhere in the USA and Canada. If you have attended a movie at an AMC theater in recent years, for example, you have enriched our future overlords in China, namely billionaire real estate developer Wang Jianglin.

    I don’t take my family to that chain of theaters, for that reason. Were you even aware of the ownership of AMC? Do you make similar efforts to be loyal to America and not support our rivals and enemies in the minutiae of your life?

    We spend much more on clothing and shoes for our kids than necessary, because we buy so much American-made goods from small companies online instead of just getting what’s cheap made in China from Walmart, Target, on Amazon, etc. how about you and your family?

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  109. AP says:
    @Gerard2

    Russia had .7% growth in 2014, -2.8% growth in 2015, -.2% growth in 2016. It is projected to grow 1.4% in 2017 according to IMF and 1.3% according to World Bank.

    Russia would need 2.3% growth in 2017 to get back to where it was at the beginning of 2014. It is not at break-even stage from before the sanctions and oil price drop but will be there in 2018.
     
    hahahahahahaa! More attention-whoring, sociopathic moron nonsense. Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0% you idiot...with the economic development minister saying that it will reach 2.2%. That pretty much takes it up to break-even ( and I think the GDP loss in 2015 was actually 2.6%)...an achievement that will take Ukraine probably 20 years to reach ( with Ukraine being one of the few and maybe the ONLY country in the world to have a lower GDP now , than in 1991)

    Not relative to income. Venezuela has higher par capita oil consumption than the UK, Italy, Russia, etc.
     
    As expected from a dipshit, a deflection with gibberish away from my main point. Just because I did not say MOST countries like this have a low consumption of oil, doesn't make my point any less correct you ignorant prick. Coal cant seriously be compared to Oil economically either, and the point is entirely accurate for Angola,Nigeria,SaudiArabia,Qatar,Indonesia and so on.

    Lviv oblast’s GRP dropped 5% total for the years 2014 and 2015. It grew about 2% in 2016 and is projected to grow 3.5% in 2017. So it’s doing fine without Donbas. Actually, unlike Russia it is already past the break-even point from before the 2014 events.

     

    Again this is more fantasist garbage about the dump Lvov and it's economy. Big lack of investment, big lack of tourism (Russians, of course, were the large majority of foreign visitors), loss of population from Lvov into Poland at a much greater rate than it's deindustrialisation and the "Ukrainians" fondness for telling bullshit.

    So we are in the position where a parasite, failed , 404 nation like Ukraine has done shitter than already shit prediction of its crap economy for the year expected ( which would be nothing and even worse without IMF handouts, US and IMF funding their criminal war , Russian investment, Russian banks, Ukrainian remittances from Russia(4%) and gas transit fees (2% of GDP,maybe more), all it's industries ( even agriculture) are failing, and the country is more in the control of oligarchs...most of these oligarchs controlled by the US but who have made most of their money from or in Russia.

    Russia on the other hand, with about 2.1% growth ,is doing 50% better than expected you idiot...this despite sanctions. Fantastic.The recession in 2015/2016 would have been significantly less had their been gradual and consistent declines in oil.....not sudden large changes...thus giving the Russian finance Ministry a fighting chance to prepare accordingly.

    In 2016 Nigeria’s nominal GDP declined 1.5%. Ukraine’s grew 2.7%.
     
    errrr.....2.7% is not an true figure because it is based on bullshit Ukrop lies - not only that but it is a pitifully small figure for a country that has experienced over 15% GDP loss for the 2 years before that you idiot(and a worse than average performance before that as well). Nigeria had experienced more war in 2015 and 2016 than "Ukraine" did in that time ( with it's defence not paid for by the IMF and the US to the same degree as the failed Ukrainian military has), has experienced the oil price drop harder, doesn't have the great Soviet legacy of mass, high-class education..... but the colonial legacy of substandard education...and has a big portion of the country under Sharia Law.....despite all that it is economically outperforming Ukraine throughout the 21st century you cretin with Kiev barely able to match even Lagos...whereas Ukraine is declining to the point of sudden influx 3rd world diseases recently coming into in, several Ukrainian economic and political decisions are worse than those typical of 3rd world banana republics...and even with Nigerias problems in health.....it is still likely to outperform Ukraine in health,productivity and other areas.

    It is beyond idiotic to not include the Nigerian economic figures of 2014 and 2015, when Ukraine has experienced a double-digit recession in that time (and way below average of an already poor world economic gdp performance from 2008-2014)...but then you are a complete dipshit

    [MORE]

    You failed again Retard2:

    Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0%

    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.

    https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/gdp

    The Russian recovery lost up steam in the third quarter of 2017, waning from the second quarter’s solid pace of growth. A preliminary estimate released by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 13 November showed that GDP increased 1.8% year-on-year in Q3.

    According to TASS 7 days ago Russia is forecasting 1.8% growth for 2017.

    So Russia is not going to break even in 2017, it would have needed 2.3% growth for that.

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even. It’s funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.

    Everything else you write is about as failed as this, my poor stalker.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Gerard2

    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.
     
    but it is on record as having grown 2.5% in Q2 you dumb prick. Now, I know a dumb prick like you is just out their to occupy your POS non-life by wasting everyone's time by disputing the fact that Russian growth this year will be 2.1-2.2%...but this idiocy is ridiculous

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even
     
    This is simply fantasist bollocks....all of Ukraine is failing economically you cretin.

    It’s funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.
     
    Russian nationalist, logical person, person with an IQ over 2, economist, human-rights believer, high-ranking military officer, non -paedophile son of Nazi rapist POS fucktard,Christian...these are all the type of terms that can be described for people with my type of views......certainly not what you could call the Ukrop/US/Canadian fucktard pseudo-nationalists who have done nothing but harm to the artifical state of Ukraine you idiot.

    What makes this fake argument particularly idiotic is that 5 of the 7 most populous parts of Ukraine are in Novorossiya...absolutely essential for Ukraine that they do well. Compounding this is the failed pseudo-nationalist regions of Ukraine which are parasitic and doing nothing good in standard of living and economically...and struggle to conduct basic things like collecting of rubbish.
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  110. Are you sure it won’t just be Medvedev again? Or at least someone from the “liberal”/technocratic side of the Kremlin. That may be a better fit for the Boring Years angle, though I suppose that on the other hand a sufficiently pliable silovik would have some advantages there too. (A “liberal” would work better for rapprochement with other liberals and the West, but on the other hand “Only Dyumin can go to America”, i.e. sell it to the electorate.)

    Read More
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  111. 2089874

    AP is a typical Ukrainian nationalist and facts mean nothing to him, only his convictions. Here is a chart comparing GDP per capita for Ukraine and Nigeria.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

    I can see a beautiful convergence on this chart. :) And yes, Nigeria has a fast-growing population, which makes its per capita performance look even more impressive. This is what a real economic boom looks like, and a good story for international investors, unlike the desolate Ukraine.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    GDP per capita in Nigeria is 29% lower than that in the Ukraine. Reliance on natural resource rents is about the same in both territories, but Nigeria's income distribution is much more skewed, with the hypertrophy of the share captured by the most affluent decile accounting for about 15% of national income. As far as the standard of living for the broad majority is concerned, real income levels in Nigeria are about 40% lower than the Ukraine's. (N.B. Nigeria's life expectancy at birth is 19 years lower than that of the Ukraine and 49% of the population over 15 in Nigeria is illiterate).

    And, of course, being forcibly conquered by Russia will destroy a large mass of physical and human capital. It will in and of itself do nothing to address the Ukraine's institutional problems. They're just not that into you. Get over it.
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  112. Art Deco says:
    @Felix Keverich
    AP is a typical Ukrainian nationalist and facts mean nothing to him, only his convictions. Here is a chart comparing GDP per capita for Ukraine and Nigeria.

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

    I can see a beautiful convergence on this chart. :) And yes, Nigeria has a fast-growing population, which makes its per capita performance look even more impressive. This is what a real economic boom looks like, and a good story for international investors, unlike the desolate Ukraine.

    GDP per capita in Nigeria is 29% lower than that in the Ukraine. Reliance on natural resource rents is about the same in both territories, but Nigeria’s income distribution is much more skewed, with the hypertrophy of the share captured by the most affluent decile accounting for about 15% of national income. As far as the standard of living for the broad majority is concerned, real income levels in Nigeria are about 40% lower than the Ukraine’s. (N.B. Nigeria’s life expectancy at birth is 19 years lower than that of the Ukraine and 49% of the population over 15 in Nigeria is illiterate).

    And, of course, being forcibly conquered by Russia will destroy a large mass of physical and human capital. It will in and of itself do nothing to address the Ukraine’s institutional problems. They’re just not that into you. Get over it.

    Read More
    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria's level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It's not "29% higher", it's exactly the same:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA


    They’re just not that into you.
     
    You don't know that. And ultimately, this isn't about what some people in this territory want. It's about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.
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  113. @Art Deco
    GDP per capita in Nigeria is 29% lower than that in the Ukraine. Reliance on natural resource rents is about the same in both territories, but Nigeria's income distribution is much more skewed, with the hypertrophy of the share captured by the most affluent decile accounting for about 15% of national income. As far as the standard of living for the broad majority is concerned, real income levels in Nigeria are about 40% lower than the Ukraine's. (N.B. Nigeria's life expectancy at birth is 19 years lower than that of the Ukraine and 49% of the population over 15 in Nigeria is illiterate).

    And, of course, being forcibly conquered by Russia will destroy a large mass of physical and human capital. It will in and of itself do nothing to address the Ukraine's institutional problems. They're just not that into you. Get over it.

    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher”, it’s exactly the same:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

    They’re just not that into you.

    You don’t know that. And ultimately, this isn’t about what some people in this territory want. It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Gerard2
    well said.....smart man
    , @AP

    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system
     
    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This ia also true of Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher”, it’s exactly the same:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA
     
    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine's currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you - Ukraine 30% higher.

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania's and Panama's level due to ruble devaluation:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=RU-RO-PA

    Independent Russian state has used its Soviet considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that is lower than that of Panama or Turkey.
    , @Mr. Hack

    It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.
     
    Unfortunately for you, the Ukrainians look upon Ukraine as belonging to Ukrainians, not to the Russians. You guys to the north already control way too much land to colonize properly. Watch out that China doesn't take back the Chinese lands in the far East that was stolen from them. Get out of Ukraine, and stay out!
    , @Art Deco
    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

    No, the gdp per capita assessed at purchasing power parity is 29% lower in Nigeria than it is in the Ukraine. And, of course, Nigeria has an intensely skewed distribution of income, so what prosperity Nigeria has is less prevalent in the population as a whole.



    It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours.

    The people who actually live in the Ukraine might have something to say about that. Public opinion in the Ukraine in favor of merger with Russia is pretty much nil and the bloc of political parties congenial to Russia has lost 2/3 of the electoral base it had 7 years ago. Every thing's just working out swimmingly. If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you'll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.
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  114. Kimppis says:
    @Philip Owen
    Optics and fire control.

    Yeah, no. Simply not true.

    Russia has enough money for the military modernization and all current projects. Armata is basically finished at this point, ffs. You seriously think Russia doesn’t have modern optics and fire control systems? And it would somehow take them over 10 years (!!!) to develop those!? Again, why not 100? Where does that 2030 come from? 2020 would atleast sound somewhat believable (and you would still be wrong).

    Su-35 is operational (just to make a comparison to Armata and its electronics), the first photo evidence very recently proved that the new engine for Su-57 really does (already!) exist, they just rolled out a new Tu-160 and an A-100 (!), unveiled a whole set of heavy drones, which Russia didn’t have previously… and I could go on and on, but “no moneys”!? Not to mention that dozens of T-14s have actually already been produced (before the actual production has even started)!? Right…

    You also seem to still think that Russia’s economic growth is at -0.2%, when it actually is at +2%. Sums it up really. Your “knowledge” about the Russian military seems to also be from 2007, and I’m being generous.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    they just rolled out a new Tu-160

    The one that was entirely built from parts that were stored during the Soviet Union times?
    , @Philip Owen
    My first big project in Russia was reviewing 120 inventions for the RAS for commercialisation. Then I started working with the Russian Opto-electronics industry. You are taking Russian propaganda at face value. Armata is a dinosaur anyway. Kicking the can along the road saves the embarrassment of an immediate cancellation.
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  115. Gerard2 says:
    @AP

    telling yourself that you’re a European country, while living like Nigerians,
     
    Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is $8272, Nigeria's is $5,867.

    Ukraine's Human Development Index score is the same as Armenia's at .743; Nigeria's is at .527.

    (although Ukraine's per capita GDP PPP is similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries' HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectively).

    Ukrainians are actually set to start lagging behind Central Africa based on current economic projections
     
    Central Africa's Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

    You are soooo objective.

    There is a small oil-rich central African country that is wealthier than Ukraine - Equatorial Guinea. Alas, its per capita GDP PPP of $25,535 places it ahead of Russia also.

    [MORE]

    similar to that of Morocco and Guatemala, those countries’ HDIs are well behind, at .647 and .640, respectivel

    errrmmm…..that slightly higher HDI score is only because of the Soviet legacy in culture ,education and creating all industry in Ukraine you demented fuckwit. As such it is an artificial score that ,if anything ,shows even more what a failed fuckedup state Ukraine is,precisely because is has the lowest possible development of human potential.

    The utilisation of that education and industry must be the worst of any country or statelet that has existed in history you thick idiot. This is why all the African comparisons are fully appropriate to this demented ,failed state and artificial country Ukraine.

    Central Africa’s Republic has a per capita GDP PPP of $699.

    As with the low consumption of oil comment…a disinfo fuckwit as yourself is just wasting everyones time. Central Africa he clearly means as the latitude line going through that west coast containing countries like Nigeria,Cameroon,Ghana and so on. Ghana …another country that has succeeded more than Ukraine in the last decade. The failing infrastructure, refugee like exodus long after the 1990′s, sudden influx of a 3rd world healthcare with all sorts of diseases infiltrating Ukraine, useless education system, wearing of the vishivanka like the most primitive tribe in the underdeveloped parts of Africa,being one of the very few countries to still not have gone past their 1991 GDP, idiotic governance,making of banana-republic decisions, millions of people struggling to live……..Ukraine is an african country located in Europe.

    Read More
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  116. Gerard2 says:
    @AP


    You failed again Retard2:

    Why would I need to look at an IMF or World Bank report of Russian PROJECTED economic growth based on Q1 figures when we are already 11/12ths of the year through and the big news about the recovery has been well recorded, publicised and detailed for the past 5 months you stupid twat? A minimum growth this year of 2.0%
     
    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.

    https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/gdp

    The Russian recovery lost up steam in the third quarter of 2017, waning from the second quarter’s solid pace of growth. A preliminary estimate released by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 13 November showed that GDP increased 1.8% year-on-year in Q3.

    According to TASS 7 days ago Russia is forecasting 1.8% growth for 2017.

    So Russia is not going to break even in 2017, it would have needed 2.3% growth for that.

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even. It's funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.

    Everything else you write is about as failed as this, my poor stalker.

    [MORE]

    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.

    but it is on record as having grown 2.5% in Q2 you dumb prick. Now, I know a dumb prick like you is just out their to occupy your POS non-life by wasting everyone’s time by disputing the fact that Russian growth this year will be 2.1-2.2%…but this idiocy is ridiculous

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even

    This is simply fantasist bollocks….all of Ukraine is failing economically you cretin.

    It’s funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.

    Russian nationalist, logical person, person with an IQ over 2, economist, human-rights believer, high-ranking military officer, non -paedophile son of Nazi rapist POS fucktard,Christian…these are all the type of terms that can be described for people with my type of views……certainly not what you could call the Ukrop/US/Canadian fucktard pseudo-nationalists who have done nothing but harm to the artifical state of Ukraine you idiot.

    What makes this fake argument particularly idiotic is that 5 of the 7 most populous parts of Ukraine are in Novorossiya…absolutely essential for Ukraine that they do well. Compounding this is the failed pseudo-nationalist regions of Ukraine which are parasitic and doing nothing good in standard of living and economically…and struggle to conduct basic things like collecting of rubbish.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Russian nationalist, logical person, person with an IQ over 2, economist, human-rights believer, high-ranking military officer
     
    You finally got one thing right, Retard2.
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  117. Gerard2 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Probably close to the UK average, or indeed equal to it, considering Scotland is much lower.

    When at school (Lancaster, North-West England) there was a poll in my classroom on how many brothers/sisters everyone had; out of around ~25 people, I was the sole only child, most had 1-2, a few 3 or 4.

    Anatoly…when will you next be on Crosstalk? You were on once, and that was it! …and when will you be on any of the Russian talkshows?…its a good source of money…and I hear the Ukrainians,Polish dickhead and Michael Bom dimwit are earning sizeable amounts from it. Russia, unlike Ukraine and unlike most western countries ..actually allows on all types of viewpoints…even the most anti-patriotic liberast clowns (who if anything are massively overrepresented on Russian federal TV and radio)

    Read More
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  118. Gerard2 says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria's level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It's not "29% higher", it's exactly the same:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA


    They’re just not that into you.
     
    You don't know that. And ultimately, this isn't about what some people in this territory want. It's about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    well said…..smart man

    Read More
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  119. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria's level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It's not "29% higher", it's exactly the same:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA


    They’re just not that into you.
     
    You don't know that. And ultimately, this isn't about what some people in this territory want. It's about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system

    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This ia also true of Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher”, it’s exactly the same:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA

    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine’s currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you – Ukraine 30% higher.

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania’s and Panama’s level due to ruble devaluation:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=RU-RO-PA

    Independent Russian state has used its Soviet considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that is lower than that of Panama or Turkey.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Gerard2

    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine’s currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you – Ukraine 30% higher.

     

    errrrmmm...hahahaha...Nigeria had it even worse DURING THE SAME TIME you ignorant dipshit, and the comparison by Felix is fully valid. Nigeria had the double impact from 2014 onwards of not just the oil price drop occuring, but it's government fighting actual terrorism that has resulted in more deaths than those caused by the ukronazis in the same period...plus a long time problem of Sharia law in vast parts of the north.Despite that it still has a higher GDP per capita , despite the illiteracy,terrorism, oil price and that it had no economy to speak of in 1991....and is still a more successful country than Ukraine you cretin

    Like speaking to a brick wall....this "30%" is simply BS using artificially inflated figures because Ukraine has not deindustrialised at the same rate as it has depopulised, higher proportion of dealing done in dollars, both legal and illegal, undeserved and wasted FDI to these parasites, mainly by Russia, but also the handouts from the IMF/US...and the 6-7% GDP from Russian gas transit and remittances. Terrorism from end of 2013/14 has harmed Nigeria's FDI prospects.....opposite to Ukraine where state-sponsored terrorism by the Kiev /oligarchic scum is a necessity requirement of IMF/EU/US investment

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania’s and Panama’s level due to ruble devaluation:
     
    errmmmm...No you can't you imbecile. Russia's currency devaluation was solely down to oil price, not the dynamics of the internal economy . Ukraines devaluation is because it is a long-time failed banana republic being used by the west as an anti-Russian project. As I and Felix said, Ukraine is an african country positioned in Europe, with a worse GDP per capita than Nagorno-Karabakh

    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This is also true of Ukraine.
     
    it can hardly be "stupid idea" ....when a failed fucktard insecure lowlife as yourself spends thousands of hours each month spamtrolling imbecilic nonsense on here,precisely for the purpose of trying (but failing )to disprove this idea...obviously because a sack of faeces that knows this is true...just as you freaks all know that the fathers of Ukraine are Stalin and Lenin

    the soviets were responsible for mass literacy in Russia/Ukraine etcet. No serious person disputes this fact. No serious person disassociates mass industrialisation with mass development in education and health...all brought to the area now called Ukraine by the Soviets. . Not to mention how retarded it is to include a small part of present-day Ukraine in a spurious and idiot argument...that does nothing...except confim what an artificial state Ukraine is you thick POS.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.
     
    hahahahahaha! Again insecure attention-whore drivel.Another blatant lie you dumb POS. Again, you spend thousands of hours occupying your POS non-life getting eye-strain by lifting Motyl retard sections of the internet for random crap fake bits of information . Not only is it not true about the literacy in Austrian parts of Ukraine, but "full literacy" ( among a few select people) only a generation before, from a culture that was in existence centuries before Russia's was...would be an abysmal "achievement" . No serious person disputes that, on a per capita basis, Russia from 1750-1950 has contributed far more to the world in art, science,engineering than Austria. What's more is during the tsarist time not only was the Russian intellect utilised to .... help the land of the artificial state of Ukraine.....they also hired some of the greatest ever people from western Europe in the field of the arts,science and engineering to the benefit of the Russian empire. Ukraine simply wouldn't exist without Russia. Would have been even more of a kamikaze, failed state than it is now if hadn't stop the rape and pillage by Poland

    The most educated people in Pakistan elite are....educated....taking your idiotic fake argument as literal.....that would mean that Pakistan is a well-educated country you retard....which obviously it is not.

    If anything, being part of Russia educated,developed and left Ukraine in a perfect position after 1991...which it fuckedup ....possible because have having lunatic UPA rapists losers creating this pseudo-nationalist ideology for a pseudo-nation.
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  120. AP says:
    @Gerard2

    2% or more growth was forecast in the 2nd quarter.
     
    but it is on record as having grown 2.5% in Q2 you dumb prick. Now, I know a dumb prick like you is just out their to occupy your POS non-life by wasting everyone's time by disputing the fact that Russian growth this year will be 2.1-2.2%...but this idiocy is ridiculous

    Unlike Lviv, which has already broken even.

    The less nationalistic parts of Ukraine are certainly far from breaking even
     
    This is simply fantasist bollocks....all of Ukraine is failing economically you cretin.

    It’s funny that a Russian nationalist such as yourself seems to to be so happy that Russian-speakers in Ukraine suffer.
     
    Russian nationalist, logical person, person with an IQ over 2, economist, human-rights believer, high-ranking military officer, non -paedophile son of Nazi rapist POS fucktard,Christian...these are all the type of terms that can be described for people with my type of views......certainly not what you could call the Ukrop/US/Canadian fucktard pseudo-nationalists who have done nothing but harm to the artifical state of Ukraine you idiot.

    What makes this fake argument particularly idiotic is that 5 of the 7 most populous parts of Ukraine are in Novorossiya...absolutely essential for Ukraine that they do well. Compounding this is the failed pseudo-nationalist regions of Ukraine which are parasitic and doing nothing good in standard of living and economically...and struggle to conduct basic things like collecting of rubbish.

    [MORE]

    Russian nationalist, logical person, person with an IQ over 2, economist, human-rights believer, high-ranking military officer

    You finally got one thing right, Retard2.

    Read More
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  121. utu says:
    @Kimppis
    Yeah, no. Simply not true.

    Russia has enough money for the military modernization and all current projects. Armata is basically finished at this point, ffs. You seriously think Russia doesn't have modern optics and fire control systems? And it would somehow take them over 10 years (!!!) to develop those!? Again, why not 100? Where does that 2030 come from? 2020 would atleast sound somewhat believable (and you would still be wrong).

    Su-35 is operational (just to make a comparison to Armata and its electronics), the first photo evidence very recently proved that the new engine for Su-57 really does (already!) exist, they just rolled out a new Tu-160 and an A-100 (!), unveiled a whole set of heavy drones, which Russia didn't have previously... and I could go on and on, but "no moneys"!? Not to mention that dozens of T-14s have actually already been produced (before the actual production has even started)!? Right...

    You also seem to still think that Russia's economic growth is at -0.2%, when it actually is at +2%. Sums it up really. Your "knowledge" about the Russian military seems to also be from 2007, and I'm being generous.

    they just rolled out a new Tu-160

    The one that was entirely built from parts that were stored during the Soviet Union times?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Wasn't that partially? Anyway, I'm not sure how relevant that is... just one the new and current projects, that was my point. It's a testbed, so I guess all the new features will be tested on it, serial production will start in around 2023.
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  122. Gerard2 says:
    @AP

    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system
     
    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This ia also true of Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It’s not “29% higher”, it’s exactly the same:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA
     
    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine's currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you - Ukraine 30% higher.

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania's and Panama's level due to ruble devaluation:

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=RU-RO-PA

    Independent Russian state has used its Soviet considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that is lower than that of Panama or Turkey.

    [MORE]

    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine’s currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you – Ukraine 30% higher.

    errrrmmm…hahahaha…Nigeria had it even worse DURING THE SAME TIME you ignorant dipshit, and the comparison by Felix is fully valid. Nigeria had the double impact from 2014 onwards of not just the oil price drop occuring, but it’s government fighting actual terrorism that has resulted in more deaths than those caused by the ukronazis in the same period…plus a long time problem of Sharia law in vast parts of the north.Despite that it still has a higher GDP per capita , despite the illiteracy,terrorism, oil price and that it had no economy to speak of in 1991….and is still a more successful country than Ukraine you cretin

    Like speaking to a brick wall….this “30%” is simply BS using artificially inflated figures because Ukraine has not deindustrialised at the same rate as it has depopulised, higher proportion of dealing done in dollars, both legal and illegal, undeserved and wasted FDI to these parasites, mainly by Russia, but also the handouts from the IMF/US…and the 6-7% GDP from Russian gas transit and remittances. Terrorism from end of 2013/14 has harmed Nigeria’s FDI prospects…..opposite to Ukraine where state-sponsored terrorism by the Kiev /oligarchic scum is a necessity requirement of IMF/EU/US investment

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania’s and Panama’s level due to ruble devaluation:

    errmmmm…No you can’t you imbecile. Russia’s currency devaluation was solely down to oil price, not the dynamics of the internal economy . Ukraines devaluation is because it is a long-time failed banana republic being used by the west as an anti-Russian project. As I and Felix said, Ukraine is an african country positioned in Europe, with a worse GDP per capita than Nagorno-Karabakh

    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This is also true of Ukraine.

    it can hardly be “stupid idea” ….when a failed fucktard insecure lowlife as yourself spends thousands of hours each month spamtrolling imbecilic nonsense on here,precisely for the purpose of trying (but failing )to disprove this idea…obviously because a sack of faeces that knows this is true…just as you freaks all know that the fathers of Ukraine are Stalin and Lenin

    the soviets were responsible for mass literacy in Russia/Ukraine etcet. No serious person disputes this fact. No serious person disassociates mass industrialisation with mass development in education and health…all brought to the area now called Ukraine by the Soviets. . Not to mention how retarded it is to include a small part of present-day Ukraine in a spurious and idiot argument…that does nothing…except confim what an artificial state Ukraine is you thick POS.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.

    hahahahahaha! Again insecure attention-whore drivel.Another blatant lie you dumb POS. Again, you spend thousands of hours occupying your POS non-life getting eye-strain by lifting Motyl retard sections of the internet for random crap fake bits of information . Not only is it not true about the literacy in Austrian parts of Ukraine, but “full literacy” ( among a few select people) only a generation before, from a culture that was in existence centuries before Russia’s was…would be an abysmal “achievement” . No serious person disputes that, on a per capita basis, Russia from 1750-1950 has contributed far more to the world in art, science,engineering than Austria. What’s more is during the tsarist time not only was the Russian intellect utilised to …. help the land of the artificial state of Ukraine…..they also hired some of the greatest ever people from western Europe in the field of the arts,science and engineering to the benefit of the Russian empire. Ukraine simply wouldn’t exist without Russia. Would have been even more of a kamikaze, failed state than it is now if hadn’t stop the rape and pillage by Poland

    The most educated people in Pakistan elite are….educated….taking your idiotic fake argument as literal…..that would mean that Pakistan is a well-educated country you retard….which obviously it is not.

    If anything, being part of Russia educated,developed and left Ukraine in a perfect position after 1991…which it fuckedup ….possible because have having lunatic UPA rapists losers creating this pseudo-nationalist ideology for a pseudo-nation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP


    Stalker Retard2 with IQ over 2 keeps barking...
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  123. Kimppis says:
    @utu
    they just rolled out a new Tu-160

    The one that was entirely built from parts that were stored during the Soviet Union times?

    Wasn’t that partially? Anyway, I’m not sure how relevant that is… just one the new and current projects, that was my point. It’s a testbed, so I guess all the new features will be tested on it, serial production will start in around 2023.

    Read More
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  124. AP says:
    @Gerard2

    Nominal GDP in US $, after the value of Ukraine’s currency collapsed.

    In terms of per capita GDP PPP it is exactly as was described to you – Ukraine 30% higher.

     

    errrrmmm...hahahaha...Nigeria had it even worse DURING THE SAME TIME you ignorant dipshit, and the comparison by Felix is fully valid. Nigeria had the double impact from 2014 onwards of not just the oil price drop occuring, but it's government fighting actual terrorism that has resulted in more deaths than those caused by the ukronazis in the same period...plus a long time problem of Sharia law in vast parts of the north.Despite that it still has a higher GDP per capita , despite the illiteracy,terrorism, oil price and that it had no economy to speak of in 1991....and is still a more successful country than Ukraine you cretin

    Like speaking to a brick wall....this "30%" is simply BS using artificially inflated figures because Ukraine has not deindustrialised at the same rate as it has depopulised, higher proportion of dealing done in dollars, both legal and illegal, undeserved and wasted FDI to these parasites, mainly by Russia, but also the handouts from the IMF/US...and the 6-7% GDP from Russian gas transit and remittances. Terrorism from end of 2013/14 has harmed Nigeria's FDI prospects.....opposite to Ukraine where state-sponsored terrorism by the Kiev /oligarchic scum is a necessity requirement of IMF/EU/US investment

    We can play the same game with Russia as you play with Ukraine. The same chart shows Russia nominal GDP collapsing lower than Romania’s and Panama’s level due to ruble devaluation:
     
    errmmmm...No you can't you imbecile. Russia's currency devaluation was solely down to oil price, not the dynamics of the internal economy . Ukraines devaluation is because it is a long-time failed banana republic being used by the west as an anti-Russian project. As I and Felix said, Ukraine is an african country positioned in Europe, with a worse GDP per capita than Nagorno-Karabakh

    I think Karlin dispelled the stupid idea that Soviets were responsible for literacy in Russia. This is also true of Ukraine.
     
    it can hardly be "stupid idea" ....when a failed fucktard insecure lowlife as yourself spends thousands of hours each month spamtrolling imbecilic nonsense on here,precisely for the purpose of trying (but failing )to disprove this idea...obviously because a sack of faeces that knows this is true...just as you freaks all know that the fathers of Ukraine are Stalin and Lenin

    the soviets were responsible for mass literacy in Russia/Ukraine etcet. No serious person disputes this fact. No serious person disassociates mass industrialisation with mass development in education and health...all brought to the area now called Ukraine by the Soviets. . Not to mention how retarded it is to include a small part of present-day Ukraine in a spurious and idiot argument...that does nothing...except confim what an artificial state Ukraine is you thick POS.

    The Ukrainian parts that were part of Austria achieved full literacy among students a generation earlier than did those that were part of Russia/USSR. If anything, being part of Russia had held Ukraine back.
     
    hahahahahaha! Again insecure attention-whore drivel.Another blatant lie you dumb POS. Again, you spend thousands of hours occupying your POS non-life getting eye-strain by lifting Motyl retard sections of the internet for random crap fake bits of information . Not only is it not true about the literacy in Austrian parts of Ukraine, but "full literacy" ( among a few select people) only a generation before, from a culture that was in existence centuries before Russia's was...would be an abysmal "achievement" . No serious person disputes that, on a per capita basis, Russia from 1750-1950 has contributed far more to the world in art, science,engineering than Austria. What's more is during the tsarist time not only was the Russian intellect utilised to .... help the land of the artificial state of Ukraine.....they also hired some of the greatest ever people from western Europe in the field of the arts,science and engineering to the benefit of the Russian empire. Ukraine simply wouldn't exist without Russia. Would have been even more of a kamikaze, failed state than it is now if hadn't stop the rape and pillage by Poland

    The most educated people in Pakistan elite are....educated....taking your idiotic fake argument as literal.....that would mean that Pakistan is a well-educated country you retard....which obviously it is not.

    If anything, being part of Russia educated,developed and left Ukraine in a perfect position after 1991...which it fuckedup ....possible because have having lunatic UPA rapists losers creating this pseudo-nationalist ideology for a pseudo-nation.

    [MORE]

    Stalker Retard2 with IQ over 2 keeps barking…

    Read More
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  125. Mr. Hack says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria's level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It's not "29% higher", it's exactly the same:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA


    They’re just not that into you.
     
    You don't know that. And ultimately, this isn't about what some people in this territory want. It's about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    Unfortunately for you, the Ukrainians look upon Ukraine as belonging to Ukrainians, not to the Russians. You guys to the north already control way too much land to colonize properly. Watch out that China doesn’t take back the Chinese lands in the far East that was stolen from them. Get out of Ukraine, and stay out!

    Read More
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  126. Art Deco says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Ukraine's comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria's level.

    Take a look at this chart, buddy! It's not "29% higher", it's exactly the same:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=NG-UA


    They’re just not that into you.
     
    You don't know that. And ultimately, this isn't about what some people in this territory want. It's about us, Russians, taking what is ours. The Ukraine belongs to all of us.

    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

    No, the gdp per capita assessed at purchasing power parity is 29% lower in Nigeria than it is in the Ukraine. And, of course, Nigeria has an intensely skewed distribution of income, so what prosperity Nigeria has is less prevalent in the population as a whole.

    It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours.

    The people who actually live in the Ukraine might have something to say about that. Public opinion in the Ukraine in favor of merger with Russia is pretty much nil and the bloc of political parties congenial to Russia has lost 2/3 of the electoral base it had 7 years ago. Every thing’s just working out swimmingly. If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.

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    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Jon0815

    If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.
     
    That's absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn't be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.
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  127. Putin stepping down would be very good news indeed. His continuance in office makes war almost inevitable. He’s bogged down in Ukraine and in Syria (where he is also a sitting duck). Having deliberately thumbed his nose at the international community, there’s no way he’s ever going to get an agreement on either and it must be dawning on him by now that his American supporters are not going to be able to manipulate their own country into capitulating to him. His recent rather frantic attempts to get some sort of agreement with Trump on Syria suggest that he considers himself in deep trouble and panicking. Putin has been in power continuously since 2000 and is now 65 years old. That’s retiring age in Europe. He could decently retire saying he’s “tired”. Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable, given state control of the media, but whatever popularity he has would very quickly evaporate if Russia started taking heavy casualties (in Syria, for example). Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling. Incidentally, the incredible fury that the author’s comments about Ukraine unleashed speaks volumes for just much trouble Putin is in.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Who is the so-called international community? If we had free popular referenda worldwide with the choices being the USA/EU or Russia, who do you think would garner more trust and good will?

    The vote in China and India alone would be so lopsided as to ensure a worldwide majority vote for Russia. Didn’t have to be this way, but it is, and it is well deserved based on US government lying and reneging and murdering and then accusing others of the same. Don’t deceive yourself.
    , @RadicalCenter
    So when Putin seeks a peaceful negotiated solution in Syria, that shows he is “desperate” and weak, eh?

    What if Putin did NOT seek such a solution? You’d be the first calling him a warmonger.

    What exactly can Russia do, besides curl up in a ball and let the US take and kill and occupy and sanction and drone and threaten everyone and everywhere it wants, that would meet your approval?
    , @Anatoly Karlin

    ... Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable
     
    Not really: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/will-russians-defend-putin/ (see II)

    Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling.
     
    There were no opinion polls in Nazi Germany.

    However, William L. Shirer found no largescale bitterness towards Hitler even in 1945:

    Such was the state to which the follies of Adolf Hitler – and their own folly in following him so blindly and with so much enthusiasm – had brought them, though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.
     
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  128. “The next Presidential term is looking up to be one of technocratic optimization and further reforms, of privatizing an overly state-dominated economy, of trying to restore relations with the West.”

    Mr. Karlin,

    I am grateful for the exceptional learning experience you have shared.

    Have one question on your quotation, above.

    Several months ago, esteemed author Paul Craig Roberts wrote an article on the (internal) influence of the “Atlantic Integrationists” upon the Putin government and the direction & development of the Russian economy.

    Admittedly, research is not my “ballywick” and I respectfully ask if you may know more specifics on “Atlanticist Integrationists”? In short, who are they and are they connected with key drivers of global economy.

    Thank you very much!

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  129. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Putin may be tired, but he is still the best chess player on the scene. Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu can possibly be in the same league in terms of cunning, the other players are not even close. The US is often losing because it keeps playing checkers against his chess, but after “Iraq WMDs” it does not have decent players, it’s diplomacy is brain-dead.
    The thing I really don’t understand is why the West is so keen on Putin’s going. Russia would never tolerate another Gorby or Yeltsin, so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets in their vaudeville “states”, and quite a few more half-baked regimes the US invested in creating to surround Russia. My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.

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    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Avery
    {Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu.....}

    Netanyahu in the same league as Putin?
    You are joking , right?
    Nutsoyahoo is your typical Israeli politician: a loudmouth, arrogant, preening nobody who thinks he or she is somebody - while under the protective umbrella of US. If not for US support (....and influential Jewish American diaspora) nobody would pay attention to Israel's leaders.

    {so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. }

    Most likely: Yes. That's what US/NATO want.
    Can you guess why?

    {He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets....}

    Ukraine maybe: would a big mistake.
    Baltic puppets: never. Much to lose and nothing to gain for Russia.


    {My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.}

    No: West/NATO/US can't wait for Putin to leave office and a hot-headed Russian nationalist to replace him.
    Reason West hates Putin is because he confounds them every time they try to bait him into doing something rash. He will not play West's game. He will not step into their traps. Putin's public persona is always conciliatory towards the West: he always talks about 'our partners' (the West). You know, "... it's a little misunderstanding between 'friends': no big deal."

    West desperately needs a rash, boisterous Russian leader, who will publicly call the West 'the enemy', and act impulsively. West was hoping that Putin would invade Ukraine: Putin kept his cool, despite the tremendous pressure form Russian nationalists to help their Russian kin in East Ukraine. He knew and knows that the Junta in Kiev will self destruct. And any help to Novorossyia can be done without fanfare.

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  130. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Only someone who does not understand Russia can consider Sobchak or Navalny seriously. The rumor has it, both are Kremlin creations, because nobody can discredit self-proclaimed opposition in the eyes of the Russians better than it itself does. What’s more, Russians are particularly hard on traitors. Any wannabe politician, who says that Crimea belongs to Ukraine (even if s/he later retracts this statement, like Navalny), or gets the money and/or marching orders from the US, can kiss his electoral prospects goodbye. The US routinely destroys the credibility of so-called opposition in Russia by funding it and inviting to the Embassy, without even understanding that this plays right into Putin’s hands. Putin is smart enough to use this state of affairs for his own benefit, especially when hapless and clueless US diplomacy is doing the dirty work for him. He is much more cunning than late unlamented Soviet leaders lacking brains and any sense of humor.
    Putin’s foreign policy is supported by the great majority of Russians, but the economic policy of his government is not. However, people who reveal their traitorous nature loose credibility in everything, even when they rightly criticize economic policy or point out the cases of corruption. If the West had even rudimentary understanding of this, it would not be surprised so often.

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  131. @Kimppis
    Yeah, no. Simply not true.

    Russia has enough money for the military modernization and all current projects. Armata is basically finished at this point, ffs. You seriously think Russia doesn't have modern optics and fire control systems? And it would somehow take them over 10 years (!!!) to develop those!? Again, why not 100? Where does that 2030 come from? 2020 would atleast sound somewhat believable (and you would still be wrong).

    Su-35 is operational (just to make a comparison to Armata and its electronics), the first photo evidence very recently proved that the new engine for Su-57 really does (already!) exist, they just rolled out a new Tu-160 and an A-100 (!), unveiled a whole set of heavy drones, which Russia didn't have previously... and I could go on and on, but "no moneys"!? Not to mention that dozens of T-14s have actually already been produced (before the actual production has even started)!? Right...

    You also seem to still think that Russia's economic growth is at -0.2%, when it actually is at +2%. Sums it up really. Your "knowledge" about the Russian military seems to also be from 2007, and I'm being generous.

    My first big project in Russia was reviewing 120 inventions for the RAS for commercialisation. Then I started working with the Russian Opto-electronics industry. You are taking Russian propaganda at face value. Armata is a dinosaur anyway. Kicking the can along the road saves the embarrassment of an immediate cancellation.

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  132. I hope he does run so when he wins we can blame it on the Russians!

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  133. @Philip Owen
    Full production of the Armata series has been delayed until 2030. Too many French components amongst other things.

    Well, this does say that only 100 units will be delivered by 2020, which is not far off 2030 …

    I, for one, am hoping for a nice little conflict between NATO and Russia so we can see how each side’s equipment and personnel really perform.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Understand your sentiment, but how can we be sure that the conflict will remain a nice little one? Better that it never begin.

    USA and Russia had better get together against China, Islamism, and other common threats. But that would require Americans to regain control of the us government and come to their senses. I hope we can do so before this current elite leads us to massive war or, what is more certain, demographic and economic and cultural suicide here at home.
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  134. Jon0815 says:
    @Art Deco
    Ukraine’s comparatively high level of human capital, including literacy rates, itself is a legacy of Soviet/Russian education system. Independent Ukrainian state has used this considerable endowment to achieve a level of GDP per capita that equals Nigeria’s level.

    No, the gdp per capita assessed at purchasing power parity is 29% lower in Nigeria than it is in the Ukraine. And, of course, Nigeria has an intensely skewed distribution of income, so what prosperity Nigeria has is less prevalent in the population as a whole.



    It’s about us, Russians, taking what is ours.

    The people who actually live in the Ukraine might have something to say about that. Public opinion in the Ukraine in favor of merger with Russia is pretty much nil and the bloc of political parties congenial to Russia has lost 2/3 of the electoral base it had 7 years ago. Every thing's just working out swimmingly. If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you'll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.

    If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.

    That’s absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn’t be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Moreover, Russia merely needs to hold its native population constant - which admittedly I’m unsure whether they are doing or will do - and watch while Ukrainians die off.

    (Kinda like the Muslims and Chinese proliferate and watch while whites play with their iPhones, talk about how bad whiteness is, take useless college classes then complain that they can’t get good jobs beyond Starbucks and Uber, invent new pronouns and play at taking offense at everything, and binge-drink and tattoo and f—- each other up the ass while other races actually do the hard and satisfying work of HAVING AND RAISING THEIR OWN CHILDREN, teaching them to study hard, work hard, fight whenever needed, and be proud of who they are.)

    Ukraine will soon have very few fighting-age men to resist an invasion from Russia or anyone else. The decline in Ukraine population is about to accelerate drastically, apparently to a degree not suffered by Russia at present. Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe. Given the dearth of reproductive-age women in Ukraine and their general unwillingness to have more than one child, Russia will face a neighbor with only 30 million Ukrainians soon enough, eventually far fewer. Ukraine is North Dakota without the oil and the high levels of social trust, and it Will continue to depopulate.

    Hmm, maybe a deal can be made when the US dollar and/or economy collapse or the US otherwise becomes unable to afford or sustain projection of power far abroad (e.g. widespread, ongoing race riots or civil war in the US). China takes Taiwan and Australia while Russia takes Ukraine and maybe the Baltics. Who would stop them exactly? And except for our love for our brothers in Australia, why would regular Americans care about the rest of that scenario?

    , @Art Deco
    That’s absurdly exaggerated.

    Military planning is not my business.

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya's population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

    Now, the expense and the bloodshed may improve on some alternative state of affairs. Political decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, what are you attempting to improve on by rolling the tanks into the Ukraine? Well, you have a certain subset of Russian chauvinists who fancy Ukrainians cannot function without Russians calling the shots or that the Ukraine is a sort of Eurasian commons with no proprietary population. That's flagrantly silly.

    There were people in this country who had the idea in their heads that the residual parts of British North America ought to be incorporated into the United States. They got their asses handed to them on the battlefield in 1813 and the issue disappeared from American political discourse. Anglophone Canadians have a truncated sense of self, but one thing they're sure of is that Canada is not 'the States'. Re the Ukraine, Russians in their capacity as citizens would benefit by letting it slide; there's seldom a shortage of things to discuss in your domestic affairs.
    , @Art Deco
    If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn’t be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

    You're proposing to liberate Ukrainians from themselves. Cute.
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  135. Avery says:
    @Anon
    Putin may be tired, but he is still the best chess player on the scene. Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu can possibly be in the same league in terms of cunning, the other players are not even close. The US is often losing because it keeps playing checkers against his chess, but after “Iraq WMDs” it does not have decent players, it’s diplomacy is brain-dead.
    The thing I really don’t understand is why the West is so keen on Putin’s going. Russia would never tolerate another Gorby or Yeltsin, so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets in their vaudeville “states”, and quite a few more half-baked regimes the US invested in creating to surround Russia. My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.

    {Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu…..}

    Netanyahu in the same league as Putin?
    You are joking , right?
    Nutsoyahoo is your typical Israeli politician: a loudmouth, arrogant, preening nobody who thinks he or she is somebody – while under the protective umbrella of US. If not for US support (….and influential Jewish American diaspora) nobody would pay attention to Israel’s leaders.

    {so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. }

    Most likely: Yes. That’s what US/NATO want.
    Can you guess why?

    {He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets….}

    Ukraine maybe: would a big mistake.
    Baltic puppets: never. Much to lose and nothing to gain for Russia.

    {My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.}

    No: West/NATO/US can’t wait for Putin to leave office and a hot-headed Russian nationalist to replace him.
    Reason West hates Putin is because he confounds them every time they try to bait him into doing something rash. He will not play West’s game. He will not step into their traps. Putin’s public persona is always conciliatory towards the West: he always talks about ‘our partners’ (the West). You know, “… it’s a little misunderstanding between ‘friends‘: no big deal.”

    West desperately needs a rash, boisterous Russian leader, who will publicly call the West ‘the enemy’, and act impulsively. West was hoping that Putin would invade Ukraine: Putin kept his cool, despite the tremendous pressure form Russian nationalists to help their Russian kin in East Ukraine. He knew and knows that the Junta in Kiev will self destruct. And any help to Novorossyia can be done without fanfare.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    You are right in one important thing: the West hopes that the next Russian president wouldn’t be as cunning as Putin and will step right into Western traps set for him. This is possible, but unlikely: Russian elites (which are, BTW, just as corrupt as the US elites) mostly appreciate Putin’s ability to outmaneuver the US and its vassals, so they will try to find someone as cunning as Putin. Very likely that person would have to learn on the job, like Putin did (compare him in 2001 and now – it’s night and day). Russian elites also learned a lesson from the fiasco of Ukrainian elites: grand thieves do need a strong state to protect them, as there are always other thieves eager to steal their ill-gotten riches.
    You are also right in another thing: if the next leader has any brains, he would not act too much, but would instead allow the Ukrainian regime, as well as the US, NATO, and EU, to continue their self-destruction, following old Chinese wisdom that the best thing is to sit on the bank of a river and watch the dead body of your enemy float by. Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.
    But the words would change: the enemies would not be called “partners” any more. Also, Putin’s inclination to let everyone save face would be gone. So a lot of Western players will find themselves having eggs on their faces. Their impotent fury would be a sight to see.
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  136. @Anonymous
    For someone who bred out of his own white race, RadicalCenter, your preoccupation with Eastern European birth rates seems a bit strange. You should worry a bit more about your own country. In fact, the white birthrate in the US has crashed and the TFRs for whites in the US are currently not higher than in many post-Soviet states, that is, around 1.7. White American and Russian birthrates currently are not all that much better than Western Ukrainian, Belarussian or Lithuanian.

    Regarding the Chinese - again, I'd worry about yourself (especially the future generations). The Chinese are not just buying up hot properties in Southern California and the big West coast cities, such as Seattle, San Fran, etc, forcing local middle class whites into the boonies where they are pauperized by low job prospects. The Chinese are buying up real estate in small towns of America. Why don't you worry about that first.

    I worry about both. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

    My children, by the way, speak better English, know more about American and Western history, are more proud of Western civilization, are less inclined to take shit from PC lefties, more willing to expend effort to preserve our traditions, and will be more able and ready and willing to defend their family and neighborhood and nation with firearms, than most white kids born to two white parents here in the USA.

    I have written to, emailed, and called my fed and State reps to demand a crackdown on both legal and illegal immigration, as well as restrictions on foreign ownership of land and resources here. They haven’t listened, as you may have noticed. I have donated to p9litical candidates and groups more than I can afford. I have worn political shirts and been spit on and hit for my trouble. I have attended rallies and been threatened, followed, and surveilled for it, at risk to my career. I have forwarded columns and information to literally a couple thousand people, friends, relatives, coworkers, acquaintances to try to educate and influence and inspire them to also demand change.

    All while raising three children, losing a parent, and staring to care for the other parent who is declining in health.

    Sorry my efforts don’t meet your lofty standards.

    Why don’t you specify in detail what you have done that is superior in these regards. Tell us how many children you have and exactly what you are doing to raise them right and influence and restore something of our culture and liberty. Then get a consistent screen name that we can tell apart from others.

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  137. @Anonymous
    For someone who bred out of his own white race, RadicalCenter, your preoccupation with Eastern European birth rates seems a bit strange. You should worry a bit more about your own country. In fact, the white birthrate in the US has crashed and the TFRs for whites in the US are currently not higher than in many post-Soviet states, that is, around 1.7. White American and Russian birthrates currently are not all that much better than Western Ukrainian, Belarussian or Lithuanian.

    Regarding the Chinese - again, I'd worry about yourself (especially the future generations). The Chinese are not just buying up hot properties in Southern California and the big West coast cities, such as Seattle, San Fran, etc, forcing local middle class whites into the boonies where they are pauperized by low job prospects. The Chinese are buying up real estate in small towns of America. Why don't you worry about that first.

    PS good point about China buying up property everywhere in the USA and Canada. If you have attended a movie at an AMC theater in recent years, for example, you have enriched our future overlords in China, namely billionaire real estate developer Wang Jianglin.

    I don’t take my family to that chain of theaters, for that reason. Were you even aware of the ownership of AMC? Do you make similar efforts to be loyal to America and not support our rivals and enemies in the minutiae of your life?

    We spend much more on clothing and shoes for our kids than necessary, because we buy so much American-made goods from small companies online instead of just getting what’s cheap made in China from Walmart, Target, on Amazon, etc. how about you and your family?

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  138. @Jon0815

    If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.
     
    That's absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn't be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

    Moreover, Russia merely needs to hold its native population constant – which admittedly I’m unsure whether they are doing or will do – and watch while Ukrainians die off.

    (Kinda like the Muslims and Chinese proliferate and watch while whites play with their iPhones, talk about how bad whiteness is, take useless college classes then complain that they can’t get good jobs beyond Starbucks and Uber, invent new pronouns and play at taking offense at everything, and binge-drink and tattoo and f—- each other up the ass while other races actually do the hard and satisfying work of HAVING AND RAISING THEIR OWN CHILDREN, teaching them to study hard, work hard, fight whenever needed, and be proud of who they are.)

    Ukraine will soon have very few fighting-age men to resist an invasion from Russia or anyone else. The decline in Ukraine population is about to accelerate drastically, apparently to a degree not suffered by Russia at present. Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe. Given the dearth of reproductive-age women in Ukraine and their general unwillingness to have more than one child, Russia will face a neighbor with only 30 million Ukrainians soon enough, eventually far fewer. Ukraine is North Dakota without the oil and the high levels of social trust, and it Will continue to depopulate.

    Hmm, maybe a deal can be made when the US dollar and/or economy collapse or the US otherwise becomes unable to afford or sustain projection of power far abroad (e.g. widespread, ongoing race riots or civil war in the US). China takes Taiwan and Australia while Russia takes Ukraine and maybe the Baltics. Who would stop them exactly? And except for our love for our brothers in Australia, why would regular Americans care about the rest of that scenario?

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    • Replies: @AP

    Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe
     
    Not much more severe. And unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large Muslim population within their country and to their immediate south. And the nationalistic parts of Ukraine are demographically stable.
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  139. Art Deco says:
    @Jon0815

    If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.
     
    That's absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn't be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

    That’s absurdly exaggerated.

    Military planning is not my business.

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

    Now, the expense and the bloodshed may improve on some alternative state of affairs. Political decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, what are you attempting to improve on by rolling the tanks into the Ukraine? Well, you have a certain subset of Russian chauvinists who fancy Ukrainians cannot function without Russians calling the shots or that the Ukraine is a sort of Eurasian commons with no proprietary population. That’s flagrantly silly.

    There were people in this country who had the idea in their heads that the residual parts of British North America ought to be incorporated into the United States. They got their asses handed to them on the battlefield in 1813 and the issue disappeared from American political discourse. Anglophone Canadians have a truncated sense of self, but one thing they’re sure of is that Canada is not ‘the States’. Re the Ukraine, Russians in their capacity as citizens would benefit by letting it slide; there’s seldom a shortage of things to discuss in your domestic affairs.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Unlikely - even AP doubts that.

    Not widespread resistance, but occasional bomb attacks, shooters, etc. with plenty of locals offering passive assistance. Azov battalion and their types are largely natives of areas you call “Novorossiya.” Occupation would be expensive (on top of social payments, reconstruction, etc.)
     
    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

    Here is an illustration of just how much more potentially restive Chechnya is than the Ukraine, even today: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/chechen-carthage/
    , @Jon0815

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.
     
    I understood you to be claiming the death roll for Russian forces would be six figures. As a total death toll for both sides and civilians, six figures is less implausible, but I think still unrealistic. The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks, and would be unlikely to produce total military and civilian casualties of more than 10,000-20,000 (or about 10-20 times the total casualties per day during the most intense period of fighting in the Donbass conflict). Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

    The high civilian casualty rate in Chechnya was due largely to the fact that in the 90s and early 2000s the Russian army was a poorly trained conscript force (in the 90s it was barely even a functional military organization). And the reason the Iraq War resulted in so many civilian deaths is that the Iraqis began killing each other in sectarian violence. Presumably, nothing similar would happen in Ukraine.

    PS: There was a typo in my last post, that should be 2,500,000 reserve personnel in the Russian military, not 250,000.

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  140. @Peripatetic commenter
    Well, this does say that only 100 units will be delivered by 2020, which is not far off 2030 ...

    I, for one, am hoping for a nice little conflict between NATO and Russia so we can see how each side's equipment and personnel really perform.

    Understand your sentiment, but how can we be sure that the conflict will remain a nice little one? Better that it never begin.

    USA and Russia had better get together against China, Islamism, and other common threats. But that would require Americans to regain control of the us government and come to their senses. I hope we can do so before this current elite leads us to massive war or, what is more certain, demographic and economic and cultural suicide here at home.

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  141. @Mr. Hack

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)...The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade...As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%...On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years - a period foreseen in the Agreement.
     
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en


    It looks to me as if Putin's policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the 'triune Russia' theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia's direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It's clear that Ukraine's future will be directly linked to the EU's for some time to come.

    The largest, most supposedly prosperous EU countries, Germany and France, will find it impossible to continue providing even half of their current welfare state and standard of living to their own people, given the growing cost of subsidizing the African and muslim hordes who have set up permanent residence there. Forget about aid to Ukraine. Forget even about most purchase of foodstuffs or whatever else from Ukraine.

    Relying on people who will not even have children or defend their own existing women and children -my people in Europe – is a fool’s bet. Europeans lack the common sense and courage to be good allies, and they will soon lack the resources to be good trading partners either.

    However difficult emotionally, Ukraine ought to seek customs union, favorable trade agreements, and the like with Russia and other Eastern European countries. Including countries that hopefully have the sense to leave the eu soon, like Hungary and Austria and Poland.

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  142. @Mr. Hack

    exports from Ukraine to the EU began to increase again in 2016, by 3,7% in 2016 (to a total of 13,5 bn$)...The decline in exports to Russia have continued to decrease sharply, by 25,6%, largely as a result of measures Russia has taken against Ukraine to restrict trade...As a result, the EU is now by far the largest export partner of Ukraine, representing 37,1% of Ukraine total exports in 2016. (Ukrainian exports to Russia represent now only 9,9% of the total). Taking into account imports, total trade between Ukraine and the EU has increased by 8,1%...On the other hand, the increase in trade remains moderate so far. A more substantial boost to trade between Ukraine and the EU will come only later, progressively. The DCFTA is to be implemented in full over the course of following 7 years - a period foreseen in the Agreement.
     
    https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/21194/latest-statistics-ukraines-trade-eu-boosted-first-full-year-association-agreement_en


    It looks to me as if Putin's policies towards Ukraine have permanently shelved any hopes of resurrecting the 'triune Russia' theory, that AP clings to so tenaciously. How in the world can anyone see Ukraine fall under Russia's direct influence politically or economically after reading this? It's clear that Ukraine's future will be directly linked to the EU's for some time to come.

    PS What exactly was Putin supposed to do? Do you seriously expect the leader of Russia to allow an aggressive, hostile, untrustworthy power like the US government to install naval and land military bases in Crimea, further encircling and hemming in Russia? Because that is exactly what would have happened if Russia hadn’t re-taken the Crimea.

    I have no illusions about Putin or Russia. Let’s not have any illusions about the US gov and its track record and sick ambitions either.

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  143. @Mr. Hack

    There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached.
     
    You must still believe in Santa Clause too, Tovarishch? :-)

    Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste
     

    .
    Total nonsense! Apparently you have reading comprehension problems, and aren't able to put 2 +2 together. Ukraine's situation will steadily get better as its trade relations with the EU increase over time. I suspect that Russia and its true believers in the 'triune Russia' will someday soon discover that Ukraine is indeed a separate country, with a unique history and culture all its own, and that reestablishing good neighborly relations including trade is the way to go, not stupid and costly and unmanageable wars with its neighbor, that only lead to decline for all involved.

    Yes, the EU will have massive permanent welfare dependency, entire cities that are no-go zones for nonMuslims, more mosques than factories, more homosexual bars than churches, and more bitter barren women than children (at least until the Muslims have the numbers to “address” that first part), and a booming trade in korans, hijabs, and halal meats. What a glorious economy and culture to hitch ones wagon to. What attractive trading partners and allies for the Ukrainians.

    Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

    Congratulations to the Europeans, and to the government ruling “my” country (the USA), for making Russia look like the better option. That took some work.

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    • Replies: @AP

    Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.
     
    Ukraine is between Russia and Poland. Poland is not the Europe you describe.
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  144. @Mr. Hack

    There is only one Russia, the one with the capital on Moscow, and the Ukraine is one of our territories that got detached.
     
    You must still believe in Santa Clause too, Tovarishch? :-)

    Ukraine simply isn’t viable as a separate country, it can only exist as a province of Russia or a waste
     

    .
    Total nonsense! Apparently you have reading comprehension problems, and aren't able to put 2 +2 together. Ukraine's situation will steadily get better as its trade relations with the EU increase over time. I suspect that Russia and its true believers in the 'triune Russia' will someday soon discover that Ukraine is indeed a separate country, with a unique history and culture all its own, and that reestablishing good neighborly relations including trade is the way to go, not stupid and costly and unmanageable wars with its neighbor, that only lead to decline for all involved.

    Nice use of the Soviet-era Russian word for “comrade.” Snark is always a good substitute for argument, evidence, and logic.

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  145. @Michael Kenny
    Putin stepping down would be very good news indeed. His continuance in office makes war almost inevitable. He’s bogged down in Ukraine and in Syria (where he is also a sitting duck). Having deliberately thumbed his nose at the international community, there’s no way he’s ever going to get an agreement on either and it must be dawning on him by now that his American supporters are not going to be able to manipulate their own country into capitulating to him. His recent rather frantic attempts to get some sort of agreement with Trump on Syria suggest that he considers himself in deep trouble and panicking. Putin has been in power continuously since 2000 and is now 65 years old. That’s retiring age in Europe. He could decently retire saying he’s “tired”. Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable, given state control of the media, but whatever popularity he has would very quickly evaporate if Russia started taking heavy casualties (in Syria, for example). Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling. Incidentally, the incredible fury that the author's comments about Ukraine unleashed speaks volumes for just much trouble Putin is in.

    Who is the so-called international community? If we had free popular referenda worldwide with the choices being the USA/EU or Russia, who do you think would garner more trust and good will?

    The vote in China and India alone would be so lopsided as to ensure a worldwide majority vote for Russia. Didn’t have to be this way, but it is, and it is well deserved based on US government lying and reneging and murdering and then accusing others of the same. Don’t deceive yourself.

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  146. @Michael Kenny
    Putin stepping down would be very good news indeed. His continuance in office makes war almost inevitable. He’s bogged down in Ukraine and in Syria (where he is also a sitting duck). Having deliberately thumbed his nose at the international community, there’s no way he’s ever going to get an agreement on either and it must be dawning on him by now that his American supporters are not going to be able to manipulate their own country into capitulating to him. His recent rather frantic attempts to get some sort of agreement with Trump on Syria suggest that he considers himself in deep trouble and panicking. Putin has been in power continuously since 2000 and is now 65 years old. That’s retiring age in Europe. He could decently retire saying he’s “tired”. Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable, given state control of the media, but whatever popularity he has would very quickly evaporate if Russia started taking heavy casualties (in Syria, for example). Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling. Incidentally, the incredible fury that the author's comments about Ukraine unleashed speaks volumes for just much trouble Putin is in.

    So when Putin seeks a peaceful negotiated solution in Syria, that shows he is “desperate” and weak, eh?

    What if Putin did NOT seek such a solution? You’d be the first calling him a warmonger.

    What exactly can Russia do, besides curl up in a ball and let the US take and kill and occupy and sanction and drone and threaten everyone and everywhere it wants, that would meet your approval?

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {What exactly can Russia do,…..,. that would meet your approval?}

    Basically, disappear as a sovereign state.
    So that Neocon reptiles can freely loot its natural resources and enslave its people.
    And not be a nuclear impediment to the Globalist plans to dominate various parts of the world 'near and dear' to the Neocons' evil 'hearts'.

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  147. Art Deco says:
    @Jon0815

    If you wish to try conquering a country (and holding it contra insurgencies) which has 30% of your population and 15% of your productive base, you’ll discover that the price tag is a general mobilization (which no occidental country has engaged in since 1945), a 6-digit death toll, and a couple trillion in state expenditure. Sounds like a plan.
     
    That's absurdly exaggerated. The number of Russian troops needed to invade and occupy all of Ukraine would be in the low hundreds of thousands, not the millions (current active duty personnel number over a million, with 250,000 reserves). Casualties in the initial invasion would likely be no more than 5000-10000, possibly no more than 1000-2000 if Ukrainian forces were severely degraded by weeks of airstrikes first. Casualties due to post-invasion insurgency would likely also be, at the very most, in the low four digits per year. If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn't be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

    If the operation were limited to the liberation of Eastern Ukraine and Kiev, there probably wouldn’t be much of an insurgency at all. Financial costs would be in the billions, not trillions.

    You’re proposing to liberate Ukrainians from themselves. Cute.

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  148. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter
    Yes, the EU will have massive permanent welfare dependency, entire cities that are no-go zones for nonMuslims, more mosques than factories, more homosexual bars than churches, and more bitter barren women than children (at least until the Muslims have the numbers to “address” that first part), and a booming trade in korans, hijabs, and halal meats. What a glorious economy and culture to hitch ones wagon to. What attractive trading partners and allies for the Ukrainians.

    Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

    Congratulations to the Europeans, and to the government ruling “my” country (the USA), for making Russia look like the better option. That took some work.

    Poor Ukrainians, caught between Russia and a selfhating, suicidal, perverse, cowardly, dying pussy Europe.

    Ukraine is between Russia and Poland. Poland is not the Europe you describe.

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  149. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter
    Moreover, Russia merely needs to hold its native population constant - which admittedly I’m unsure whether they are doing or will do - and watch while Ukrainians die off.

    (Kinda like the Muslims and Chinese proliferate and watch while whites play with their iPhones, talk about how bad whiteness is, take useless college classes then complain that they can’t get good jobs beyond Starbucks and Uber, invent new pronouns and play at taking offense at everything, and binge-drink and tattoo and f—- each other up the ass while other races actually do the hard and satisfying work of HAVING AND RAISING THEIR OWN CHILDREN, teaching them to study hard, work hard, fight whenever needed, and be proud of who they are.)

    Ukraine will soon have very few fighting-age men to resist an invasion from Russia or anyone else. The decline in Ukraine population is about to accelerate drastically, apparently to a degree not suffered by Russia at present. Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe. Given the dearth of reproductive-age women in Ukraine and their general unwillingness to have more than one child, Russia will face a neighbor with only 30 million Ukrainians soon enough, eventually far fewer. Ukraine is North Dakota without the oil and the high levels of social trust, and it Will continue to depopulate.

    Hmm, maybe a deal can be made when the US dollar and/or economy collapse or the US otherwise becomes unable to afford or sustain projection of power far abroad (e.g. widespread, ongoing race riots or civil war in the US). China takes Taiwan and Australia while Russia takes Ukraine and maybe the Baltics. Who would stop them exactly? And except for our love for our brothers in Australia, why would regular Americans care about the rest of that scenario?

    Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe

    Not much more severe. And unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large Muslim population within their country and to their immediate south. And the nationalistic parts of Ukraine are demographically stable.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    A few words of caution.
    Fertility: every developed or even half-developed country (with the exception of the US) has fertility problem. In terms of its severity, Japan has the worst problem of them all. Ukraine’s main problem is not just low fertility, it’s the situation when many millions of citizens live and work outside of it, for the most part in Russia and Poland. By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991).

    Corruption. Yes, Russian elites are corrupt, but so are the elites of its main foes, including the US. Otherwise, how do you explain that the US spends on “defense” more than the rest of the world put together, and yet does not seem to be fit to fight even puny North Korea? How do you explain persisting problems with F-35 that the US invested hundreds of billions into? Or the fact that the engine of a multi-billion Zumwalt broke down in Panama channel, so that it had to be towed out of it? As for Ukraine, in terms of corruption it’s way ahead of Russia, as it was even in Soviet times. Many people have noted that while the first thing the Ukrainian road police tries to do is to squeeze a bribe out of a driver, whereas after Crimea joined Russia, Crimean road police no longer takes bribes.

    Demographic “stability” of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country. That’s why most gastarbeiters in Russia and Poland are from that part of Ukraine. The people there have two options: join the Ukrainian army (which they are reluctant to do) or get out of the country to find work. Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian. This is likely an overestimation: less educated and less civilized people in Ukraine do not have internet, and that’s the people who largely speak Ukrainian. But this fact is yet another problem for the nationalists.

    Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars. The game does not go well, though: Crimean Tatar language became one of the official languages in Crimea only after it joined Russia; Kiev-sponsored Tatar “leader” Dzhemilev voted for the Europarliament resolution condemning Ukrainian law of exclusive use of Ukrainian in school. Naturally, this law excluded Tatar language, among others. This law was meant to be anti-Russian, but it offended Tatars along with Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it (while whatever it has or gets is stolen by corrupt officials).
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  150. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Avery
    {Arguably, only Xi and Netanyahu.....}

    Netanyahu in the same league as Putin?
    You are joking , right?
    Nutsoyahoo is your typical Israeli politician: a loudmouth, arrogant, preening nobody who thinks he or she is somebody - while under the protective umbrella of US. If not for US support (....and influential Jewish American diaspora) nobody would pay attention to Israel's leaders.

    {so the next president would likely be more openly anti-Western. }

    Most likely: Yes. That's what US/NATO want.
    Can you guess why?

    {He (whoever he is) might use force to crush Ukrainian Nazis, maybe even Baltic puppets....}

    Ukraine maybe: would a big mistake.
    Baltic puppets: never. Much to lose and nothing to gain for Russia.


    {My prediction is, the West will rue the day Putin is gone.}

    No: West/NATO/US can't wait for Putin to leave office and a hot-headed Russian nationalist to replace him.
    Reason West hates Putin is because he confounds them every time they try to bait him into doing something rash. He will not play West's game. He will not step into their traps. Putin's public persona is always conciliatory towards the West: he always talks about 'our partners' (the West). You know, "... it's a little misunderstanding between 'friends': no big deal."

    West desperately needs a rash, boisterous Russian leader, who will publicly call the West 'the enemy', and act impulsively. West was hoping that Putin would invade Ukraine: Putin kept his cool, despite the tremendous pressure form Russian nationalists to help their Russian kin in East Ukraine. He knew and knows that the Junta in Kiev will self destruct. And any help to Novorossyia can be done without fanfare.

    You are right in one important thing: the West hopes that the next Russian president wouldn’t be as cunning as Putin and will step right into Western traps set for him. This is possible, but unlikely: Russian elites (which are, BTW, just as corrupt as the US elites) mostly appreciate Putin’s ability to outmaneuver the US and its vassals, so they will try to find someone as cunning as Putin. Very likely that person would have to learn on the job, like Putin did (compare him in 2001 and now – it’s night and day). Russian elites also learned a lesson from the fiasco of Ukrainian elites: grand thieves do need a strong state to protect them, as there are always other thieves eager to steal their ill-gotten riches.
    You are also right in another thing: if the next leader has any brains, he would not act too much, but would instead allow the Ukrainian regime, as well as the US, NATO, and EU, to continue their self-destruction, following old Chinese wisdom that the best thing is to sit on the bank of a river and watch the dead body of your enemy float by. Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.
    But the words would change: the enemies would not be called “partners” any more. Also, Putin’s inclination to let everyone save face would be gone. So a lot of Western players will find themselves having eggs on their faces. Their impotent fury would be a sight to see.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.

    The Baltics are more affluent than Russia, by a factor of 1.12 re Latvia and 1.25 re Lithuania and Estonia. Natural resource rents account for 10% of Russia's domestic product, v. < 1% for the Baltic states. There's room for improvement on some indicators (Latvia and Lithuania have elevated unemployment rates around 7-9%) but their other macroeconomic indicators (inflation, public sector debt ratio, public sector deficits) are generally satisfactory. Their exports are diversified and oil and minerals account for less than 20% of export revenues in all three countries. External debt levels in the Baltic states are high but they are currently running current account surpluses or small deficits.
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  151. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @AP

    Russia has serious fertility and corruption problems, but Ukraine’s, by all accounts, are more severe
     
    Not much more severe. And unlike Russia, Ukraine does not have a large Muslim population within their country and to their immediate south. And the nationalistic parts of Ukraine are demographically stable.

    A few words of caution.
    Fertility: every developed or even half-developed country (with the exception of the US) has fertility problem. In terms of its severity, Japan has the worst problem of them all. Ukraine’s main problem is not just low fertility, it’s the situation when many millions of citizens live and work outside of it, for the most part in Russia and Poland. By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991).

    Corruption. Yes, Russian elites are corrupt, but so are the elites of its main foes, including the US. Otherwise, how do you explain that the US spends on “defense” more than the rest of the world put together, and yet does not seem to be fit to fight even puny North Korea? How do you explain persisting problems with F-35 that the US invested hundreds of billions into? Or the fact that the engine of a multi-billion Zumwalt broke down in Panama channel, so that it had to be towed out of it? As for Ukraine, in terms of corruption it’s way ahead of Russia, as it was even in Soviet times. Many people have noted that while the first thing the Ukrainian road police tries to do is to squeeze a bribe out of a driver, whereas after Crimea joined Russia, Crimean road police no longer takes bribes.

    Demographic “stability” of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country. That’s why most gastarbeiters in Russia and Poland are from that part of Ukraine. The people there have two options: join the Ukrainian army (which they are reluctant to do) or get out of the country to find work. Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian. This is likely an overestimation: less educated and less civilized people in Ukraine do not have internet, and that’s the people who largely speak Ukrainian. But this fact is yet another problem for the nationalists.

    Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars. The game does not go well, though: Crimean Tatar language became one of the official languages in Crimea only after it joined Russia; Kiev-sponsored Tatar “leader” Dzhemilev voted for the Europarliament resolution condemning Ukrainian law of exclusive use of Ukrainian in school. Naturally, this law excluded Tatar language, among others. This law was meant to be anti-Russian, but it offended Tatars along with Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it (while whatever it has or gets is stolen by corrupt officials).

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    • Replies: @AP

    By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991)
     
    Birth figures contradict this weird claim.

    Most Ukrainian migrants are temporary. They work for a few months on Poland, then drive home. Warsaw to Kiev is about a 9 hour drive.

    Demographic “stability” of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country.
     
    True of Volyn, not true of Galicia. Here is Ukrainian population density:

    http://ukrexport.gov.ua/i/imgsupload/image/population_density.gif

    Lviv has about 800,000 people, larger than national capitals like Slovakia's Bratislava or Lithuania's Vilnius.

    Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian.
     
    Because more results can be found in Russian. For the same reason there are more queries in English, in Russia, than native English-speakers in that country.

    Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars
     
    When Crimea was part of Ukraine Crimean Tatars were about .5% of the population. They are much less now. Russia is about 10% Muslim, not including undocumented migrants (so another few %). There is no comparison.

    Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it
     
    In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has virtually no Muslims.
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  152. @Art Deco
    That’s absurdly exaggerated.

    Military planning is not my business.

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya's population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

    Now, the expense and the bloodshed may improve on some alternative state of affairs. Political decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, what are you attempting to improve on by rolling the tanks into the Ukraine? Well, you have a certain subset of Russian chauvinists who fancy Ukrainians cannot function without Russians calling the shots or that the Ukraine is a sort of Eurasian commons with no proprietary population. That's flagrantly silly.

    There were people in this country who had the idea in their heads that the residual parts of British North America ought to be incorporated into the United States. They got their asses handed to them on the battlefield in 1813 and the issue disappeared from American political discourse. Anglophone Canadians have a truncated sense of self, but one thing they're sure of is that Canada is not 'the States'. Re the Ukraine, Russians in their capacity as citizens would benefit by letting it slide; there's seldom a shortage of things to discuss in your domestic affairs.

    Unlikely – even AP doubts that.

    Not widespread resistance, but occasional bomb attacks, shooters, etc. with plenty of locals offering passive assistance. Azov battalion and their types are largely natives of areas you call “Novorossiya.” Occupation would be expensive (on top of social payments, reconstruction, etc.)

    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

    Here is an illustration of just how much more potentially restive Chechnya is than the Ukraine, even today: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/chechen-carthage/

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    If you and Felix would like to try learning the hard way, well...

    ---

    The Russophile party in the Ukraine has for several years now polled around 12% of the public; there is no suggestion whatsoever in their platform that Ukraine should merge with Russia. Pew undertook a survey a couple of years back of public opinion in the Ukraine. The respondents who favored the end-state of ceding the Donbass to Russia amounted to 2% of those polled. Another 4% favored a sovereign Donbass. You're all implicitly advocating a political outcome in the Ukraine the preference for which cannot be properly gauged with surveys because it's so unusual.

    , @AP
    To be clear, I was referring to places like Kharkiv and Odessa - not Kiev (which Keverich thinks Russia could take over and control fairly easily). There would be significant resistance in Kiev.

    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.
     
    No, Azov is from Kharkiv, Right Sector largely from Dnipropetrovsk. There would be plenty of native troublemakers setting off bombs, taking pot-shots at troops or officials. It wouldn't be building-to-building mass resistance but a large and expensive headache for the Russian occupation forces.
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  153. @Michael Kenny
    Putin stepping down would be very good news indeed. His continuance in office makes war almost inevitable. He’s bogged down in Ukraine and in Syria (where he is also a sitting duck). Having deliberately thumbed his nose at the international community, there’s no way he’s ever going to get an agreement on either and it must be dawning on him by now that his American supporters are not going to be able to manipulate their own country into capitulating to him. His recent rather frantic attempts to get some sort of agreement with Trump on Syria suggest that he considers himself in deep trouble and panicking. Putin has been in power continuously since 2000 and is now 65 years old. That’s retiring age in Europe. He could decently retire saying he’s “tired”. Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable, given state control of the media, but whatever popularity he has would very quickly evaporate if Russia started taking heavy casualties (in Syria, for example). Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling. Incidentally, the incredible fury that the author's comments about Ukraine unleashed speaks volumes for just much trouble Putin is in.

    … Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable

    Not really: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/will-russians-defend-putin/ (see II)

    Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling.

    There were no opinion polls in Nazi Germany.

    However, William L. Shirer found no largescale bitterness towards Hitler even in 1945:

    Such was the state to which the follies of Adolf Hitler – and their own folly in following him so blindly and with so much enthusiasm – had brought them, though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.

    The revanchist vote in Germany and Austria after the war was close to nil. People with dirty pasts active in Austrian politics concealed them carefully.

    Germany and Austria benefited after 1945 from that absence of bitterness. People were plenty bitter during the inter-war period. Learning from experience. It's great stuff.

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  154. Art Deco says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    ... Whether he is as popular as is claimed is highly questionable
     
    Not really: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/will-russians-defend-putin/ (see II)

    Hitler too was popular until the bombs started falling.
     
    There were no opinion polls in Nazi Germany.

    However, William L. Shirer found no largescale bitterness towards Hitler even in 1945:

    Such was the state to which the follies of Adolf Hitler – and their own folly in following him so blindly and with so much enthusiasm – had brought them, though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.
     

    though I found little bitterness toward him when I returned to Germany that fall.

    The revanchist vote in Germany and Austria after the war was close to nil. People with dirty pasts active in Austrian politics concealed them carefully.

    Germany and Austria benefited after 1945 from that absence of bitterness. People were plenty bitter during the inter-war period. Learning from experience. It’s great stuff.

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  155. Art Deco says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Unlikely - even AP doubts that.

    Not widespread resistance, but occasional bomb attacks, shooters, etc. with plenty of locals offering passive assistance. Azov battalion and their types are largely natives of areas you call “Novorossiya.” Occupation would be expensive (on top of social payments, reconstruction, etc.)
     
    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

    Here is an illustration of just how much more potentially restive Chechnya is than the Ukraine, even today: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/chechen-carthage/

    If you and Felix would like to try learning the hard way, well…

    The Russophile party in the Ukraine has for several years now polled around 12% of the public; there is no suggestion whatsoever in their platform that Ukraine should merge with Russia. Pew undertook a survey a couple of years back of public opinion in the Ukraine. The respondents who favored the end-state of ceding the Donbass to Russia amounted to 2% of those polled. Another 4% favored a sovereign Donbass. You’re all implicitly advocating a political outcome in the Ukraine the preference for which cannot be properly gauged with surveys because it’s so unusual.

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  156. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    You are right in one important thing: the West hopes that the next Russian president wouldn’t be as cunning as Putin and will step right into Western traps set for him. This is possible, but unlikely: Russian elites (which are, BTW, just as corrupt as the US elites) mostly appreciate Putin’s ability to outmaneuver the US and its vassals, so they will try to find someone as cunning as Putin. Very likely that person would have to learn on the job, like Putin did (compare him in 2001 and now – it’s night and day). Russian elites also learned a lesson from the fiasco of Ukrainian elites: grand thieves do need a strong state to protect them, as there are always other thieves eager to steal their ill-gotten riches.
    You are also right in another thing: if the next leader has any brains, he would not act too much, but would instead allow the Ukrainian regime, as well as the US, NATO, and EU, to continue their self-destruction, following old Chinese wisdom that the best thing is to sit on the bank of a river and watch the dead body of your enemy float by. Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.
    But the words would change: the enemies would not be called “partners” any more. Also, Putin’s inclination to let everyone save face would be gone. So a lot of Western players will find themselves having eggs on their faces. Their impotent fury would be a sight to see.

    Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.

    The Baltics are more affluent than Russia, by a factor of 1.12 re Latvia and 1.25 re Lithuania and Estonia. Natural resource rents account for 10% of Russia’s domestic product, v. < 1% for the Baltic states. There's room for improvement on some indicators (Latvia and Lithuania have elevated unemployment rates around 7-9%) but their other macroeconomic indicators (inflation, public sector debt ratio, public sector deficits) are generally satisfactory. Their exports are diversified and oil and minerals account for less than 20% of export revenues in all three countries. External debt levels in the Baltic states are high but they are currently running current account surpluses or small deficits.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop, as well as transit fees for Russian goods, which are dwindling and are about to stop in a year or two. Russia built a huge Ust-Luga port specifically to take away transit fees from the Baltics. These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites more than anything else. Even with these props Baltic countries are not far ahead of Russia. Without them they are likely to fall way behind. What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now), which is hardly something to write home about. Personally, I know only one Balt, an Estonian. He lives in Finland for many years and complains that Estonian language is not as similar to Finnish as many believe.
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  157. Avery says:
    @RadicalCenter
    So when Putin seeks a peaceful negotiated solution in Syria, that shows he is “desperate” and weak, eh?

    What if Putin did NOT seek such a solution? You’d be the first calling him a warmonger.

    What exactly can Russia do, besides curl up in a ball and let the US take and kill and occupy and sanction and drone and threaten everyone and everywhere it wants, that would meet your approval?

    {What exactly can Russia do,…..,. that would meet your approval?}

    Basically, disappear as a sovereign state.
    So that Neocon reptiles can freely loot its natural resources and enslave its people.
    And not be a nuclear impediment to the Globalist plans to dominate various parts of the world ‘near and dear’ to the Neocons’ evil ‘hearts’.

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    • Agree: RadicalCenter
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  158. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    Besides, most Russians do not want their country to feed any parasites, like the Soviet Union did, which means that they don’t want the Baltics and most of Ukraine.

    The Baltics are more affluent than Russia, by a factor of 1.12 re Latvia and 1.25 re Lithuania and Estonia. Natural resource rents account for 10% of Russia's domestic product, v. < 1% for the Baltic states. There's room for improvement on some indicators (Latvia and Lithuania have elevated unemployment rates around 7-9%) but their other macroeconomic indicators (inflation, public sector debt ratio, public sector deficits) are generally satisfactory. Their exports are diversified and oil and minerals account for less than 20% of export revenues in all three countries. External debt levels in the Baltic states are high but they are currently running current account surpluses or small deficits.

    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop, as well as transit fees for Russian goods, which are dwindling and are about to stop in a year or two. Russia built a huge Ust-Luga port specifically to take away transit fees from the Baltics. These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites more than anything else. Even with these props Baltic countries are not far ahead of Russia. Without them they are likely to fall way behind. What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now), which is hardly something to write home about. Personally, I know only one Balt, an Estonian. He lives in Finland for many years and complains that Estonian language is not as similar to Finnish as many believe.

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    • Replies: @Art Deco
    What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now),

    The total fertility rate for the Baltic states is slightly higher than the European mean. There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home.


    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop,

    Net subventions from the EU amount to about 3% of the gross domestic product of the Baltic states. Were it withdrawn tomorrow, you'd see a disagreeable recession for which a workout would take several years. Roughly 2/3 of the net subsidy is accounted for by the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, which I doubt will be disappearing anytime soon. They pay the subsidies because they're more affluent than the Baltic states are. Russia is not more affluent and would not be even were the subsidies to evaporate.


    These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites

    I think you're projecting.

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  159. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop, as well as transit fees for Russian goods, which are dwindling and are about to stop in a year or two. Russia built a huge Ust-Luga port specifically to take away transit fees from the Baltics. These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites more than anything else. Even with these props Baltic countries are not far ahead of Russia. Without them they are likely to fall way behind. What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now), which is hardly something to write home about. Personally, I know only one Balt, an Estonian. He lives in Finland for many years and complains that Estonian language is not as similar to Finnish as many believe.

    What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now),

    The total fertility rate for the Baltic states is slightly higher than the European mean. There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home.

    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop,

    Net subventions from the EU amount to about 3% of the gross domestic product of the Baltic states. Were it withdrawn tomorrow, you’d see a disagreeable recession for which a workout would take several years. Roughly 2/3 of the net subsidy is accounted for by the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, which I doubt will be disappearing anytime soon. They pay the subsidies because they’re more affluent than the Baltic states are. Russia is not more affluent and would not be even were the subsidies to evaporate.

    These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites

    I think you’re projecting.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home”.
    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.
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  160. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    What’s more, in terms of population loss among former Soviet republics Latvia and Lithuania are behind Ukraine only (the number of people living there shrunk from 52 million in 1991 to ~22-24 million now),

    The total fertility rate for the Baltic states is slightly higher than the European mean. There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home.


    Baltics are still getting EU subsidies, which are about to stop,

    Net subventions from the EU amount to about 3% of the gross domestic product of the Baltic states. Were it withdrawn tomorrow, you'd see a disagreeable recession for which a workout would take several years. Roughly 2/3 of the net subsidy is accounted for by the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, which I doubt will be disappearing anytime soon. They pay the subsidies because they're more affluent than the Baltic states are. Russia is not more affluent and would not be even were the subsidies to evaporate.


    These factors explain shrill hysterics of Baltic elites

    I think you're projecting.

    You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home”.
    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there.
     
    This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) - the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn't as deeply rooted - had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians). But at least we didn't drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).


    Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language.
     
    This is a problem for all Eastern Europeans (except maybe Belorussians) - I'm sure you've met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian. But there are Latvian language and school curricula programs for kids abroad. In fact, the use of the Baltic languages has increased a lot (you may not know this but all of the EU legislation and essentially every meeting is translated into Baltic languages, the languages are used in international sales, IT terminology is being developed and we also create machine learning and AI language tools). Most Russians in Latvia are citizens, 20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion), many Russian city mayors, the ones who are not citizens are so by their own choice - they don't want to naturalize their children because they still have relatives in Russia and it would impede with them visiting there (they'd need a Russian visa).


    Lithuania has the same problem,
     
    No it doesn't since Lithuania never had a huge Russian influx - they kept it below 7-10% of the population, how they managed it we don't know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification. Also, the military center was organized in Latvia, more so than Lithuania.


    The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
     
    I'm sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let's say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B. The Baltic states in general are thriving. Ofc, it's not ideal, and there can always be minor adjustments (both politically and economically), but in general the living standard is going up, the climate for exports this past year was very healthy. Unemployment is down, we will need labor soon, we'll need those well educated and white Ukies. You did mention the Russian transit, and, yes, it's an issue (and not pleasant, nothing new there), but our ports have a better infrastructure and the quality of service we offer is higher.

    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.
     
    A few decades? Do you mean like 50 years? No, that's just nutty. The Baltic languages will probably be around for hundreds of years (which isn't much, I agree). Possibly beyond. There are no three versions of Latvian (lol) - there is standard Latvian and dialects (some of which are cultivated, such as Latgalian (originally from Eastern Latvia), by introducing the first Latgalian ATM recently). Would you be happy if there were fewer languages and everyone spoke Spanish, English or Chinese? Do you prefer that all Europeans spoke only English? Because it's def not going to be Russian, my friend, we Balts (and Ukies) are the last non-Russkies who still speak it as a second language. So be nice.
    , @Art Deco
    The Russian share of Estonia's population was at it's peak in 1989 and has declined slowly and steadily since then, now sitting at 25% of the total. The same has been true in Latvia. The same is also true in Lithuania, bar that Russians, White Russians, and Ukrainians never amounted in sum to more than a single-digit share of the population therein.

    Ethnic Russians in the Baltic states who want citizenship have to pass a proficiency test in the local language. That's a perfectly reasonable requirement, and one many ethnic Russians have met in the last 25 years. Calling it 'apartheid' is just lying.

    , @Art Deco
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages.

    Hundreds of thousands speak Welsh after 700 years of English rule. The majority in Friesland speak Frisian. Basque has a 7-digit population of speakers. See Ethnologue. These are not endangered or declining languages.

    There's the world as it is and the world as you wish it to be. You get confused between the two.
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  161. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anon
    You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home”.
    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there.

    This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) – the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn’t as deeply rooted – had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians). But at least we didn’t drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).

    Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language.

    This is a problem for all Eastern Europeans (except maybe Belorussians) – I’m sure you’ve met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian. But there are Latvian language and school curricula programs for kids abroad. In fact, the use of the Baltic languages has increased a lot (you may not know this but all of the EU legislation and essentially every meeting is translated into Baltic languages, the languages are used in international sales, IT terminology is being developed and we also create machine learning and AI language tools). Most Russians in Latvia are citizens, 20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion), many Russian city mayors, the ones who are not citizens are so by their own choice – they don’t want to naturalize their children because they still have relatives in Russia and it would impede with them visiting there (they’d need a Russian visa).

    Lithuania has the same problem,

    No it doesn’t since Lithuania never had a huge Russian influx – they kept it below 7-10% of the population, how they managed it we don’t know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification. Also, the military center was organized in Latvia, more so than Lithuania.

    The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.

    I’m sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let’s say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B. The Baltic states in general are thriving. Ofc, it’s not ideal, and there can always be minor adjustments (both politically and economically), but in general the living standard is going up, the climate for exports this past year was very healthy. Unemployment is down, we will need labor soon, we’ll need those well educated and white Ukies. You did mention the Russian transit, and, yes, it’s an issue (and not pleasant, nothing new there), but our ports have a better infrastructure and the quality of service we offer is higher.

    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

    A few decades? Do you mean like 50 years? No, that’s just nutty. The Baltic languages will probably be around for hundreds of years (which isn’t much, I agree). Possibly beyond. There are no three versions of Latvian (lol) – there is standard Latvian and dialects (some of which are cultivated, such as Latgalian (originally from Eastern Latvia), by introducing the first Latgalian ATM recently). Would you be happy if there were fewer languages and everyone spoke Spanish, English or Chinese? Do you prefer that all Europeans spoke only English? Because it’s def not going to be Russian, my friend, we Balts (and Ukies) are the last non-Russkies who still speak it as a second language. So be nice.

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    • Replies: @Gerard2

    This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) – the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn’t as deeply rooted – had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians).
     
    Actually, you Baltic cretin....



    more Latvians have left Latvia in the last 3 years than have ethnic Russians. The percentage of each ethnic group isn't that important when we are talking about an already small number of people in a pseudo-state that has pretty much never existed before

    I’m sure you’ve met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian
     
    err..nop actually....but is is idiotic to include second generation as part of the argument....the poster was clearly referring to first generation.

    Most Russians in Latvia are citizens
     
    ...errrr a huge percentage of Russians , after 26 years, are not citizens, most Russians in Latvia think they should automatically have been given citizenship upon the end of the USSR...as any civilised country would have done . Because most Russians ( at a very,very,very slow rate that clearly shows what a rotten law they think it is) have now gotten citizenship is because they have to work and get on with their lives you moron...if the EU and US actually did something to help in this issue they would find an extremely powerful sentiment of russians in Latvia who think it is a big injustice. Anyway, 'most' isn't good enough you cretin.....1/3rd of Russians in latvia don't have citizenship, there was an increase in Russians taking latvian citizenship only because of EU membership and NOTHING to do with the Latvian state's policies...otherwise it would be even more a pitiful reflection on the failed Latvian state, than it is now.

    20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion)
     
    ...the result is fixed so that those 20 seats, even though they are the majority party ,can never hold power ( as they would do in England) ...not because of any lift or right wing position they have...but only because of their pro=Russian views.
    ....Russian party does not mean they are all Russian you idiot. 25% Russian should mean that 25% of the Latvian cabinet government are Russian....that figure is actually 0%. Your cretinous post fails to notice that there was a sizeable amount of mixed marriage between Latvians and Russians...and a very large proportion of marriages of Estonians and Russians

    Many Russian city mayors
     
    .....very limited relevance on many important issues. We also have the ridiculous case, due to a country's apartheid laws, where the Mayor of Riga's own mother is a "non-citizen"!

    But at least we didn’t drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).
     
    ...errr you idiots fought with the Nazis you brainless fucktard,

    how they managed it we don’t know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification

     

    the military centre point is true...but the other reason was because it has the same compatibility for the same type of industries as Belarus, you idiot, thus a lack of Russians needing to be there in Lithuania - but in Belarus instead

    I’m sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let’s say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B.
     
    hahahahah! Estonians 'successful" abroad...dont talk laughable bollocks you idiot. 1 Estonian, due to his soviet education having a big company is not a indicator of any trend in what we already know is a failed ethnic Estnonian population. "No evidence"....many Estonians have left Estonia you cretin

    There is more crap from you further down but I won't bother
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  162. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home”.
    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

    The Russian share of Estonia’s population was at it’s peak in 1989 and has declined slowly and steadily since then, now sitting at 25% of the total. The same has been true in Latvia. The same is also true in Lithuania, bar that Russians, White Russians, and Ukrainians never amounted in sum to more than a single-digit share of the population therein.

    Ethnic Russians in the Baltic states who want citizenship have to pass a proficiency test in the local language. That’s a perfectly reasonable requirement, and one many ethnic Russians have met in the last 25 years. Calling it ‘apartheid’ is just lying.

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  163. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Unlikely - even AP doubts that.

    Not widespread resistance, but occasional bomb attacks, shooters, etc. with plenty of locals offering passive assistance. Azov battalion and their types are largely natives of areas you call “Novorossiya.” Occupation would be expensive (on top of social payments, reconstruction, etc.)
     
    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

    Here is an illustration of just how much more potentially restive Chechnya is than the Ukraine, even today: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/chechen-carthage/

    To be clear, I was referring to places like Kharkiv and Odessa – not Kiev (which Keverich thinks Russia could take over and control fairly easily). There would be significant resistance in Kiev.

    So far as Novorossiya proper would be concerned, the only and really main threat would be diversionary groups from the rump Ukraine stirring things up.

    No, Azov is from Kharkiv, Right Sector largely from Dnipropetrovsk. There would be plenty of native troublemakers setting off bombs, taking pot-shots at troops or officials. It wouldn’t be building-to-building mass resistance but a large and expensive headache for the Russian occupation forces.

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  164. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    You say: “There was a large population of Russian colonists in Estonia and Latvia. Some have gone home”.
    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there (apartheid, anyone?). Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language. Lithuania has the same problem, although its elites do not appear to be as concerned about it (maybe because its population is twice as large, or maybe because it avoided the trap of apartheid, making everyone a citizen, in contrast to Latvia and Estonia). The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.

    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages.

    Hundreds of thousands speak Welsh after 700 years of English rule. The majority in Friesland speak Frisian. Basque has a 7-digit population of speakers. See Ethnologue. These are not endangered or declining languages.

    There’s the world as it is and the world as you wish it to be. You get confused between the two.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    Sorry to disappoint, but the world I wish to be is very different from what you apparently imagine. Not to mention that in Soviet times I was a vocal proponent of the independence of all three Baltic states. They appeared more civilized than the rest. Now I know that the mentality of their elites is purely tribal, of the Hutu-Tutsi variety, further clouded by a severe inferiority complex. How else could you explain the fact that in Latvia the law requires everyone to have an “s” after the first and last name? Like, you would have to be Arts Decos, if that were you name.
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade. What’s more, successful multi-national states have many official languages (Switzerland has four, so does Singapore, Belgium has three, to name just a few). The US does not have an official language, although you do need good English to be successful. In sharp contrast, Baltics and Ukraine have only one official language. That’s a surefire way to undermine your country, but that’s not my problem.
    Knowing what I know now, I could not care less about the Baltics. I left Russia in 1991 (~6 months before the Soviet Union was dissolved) and lived in the States ever since. I work in research, have better publication record and more citations than most Russian Academy of Sciences members, have good funding despite tough highly competitive environment, have full professorship and an endowed chair is in one of the top US universities. Obviously, there is no way I would go back to Russia, considering the state of the science there. However, my father fought against Hitler in WWII. He got decorations and was wounded several times. Therefore, there is no way I can respect or want to visit any country holding Nazi parades. This includes Latvia, Estonia, and present-day Ukraine. Curiously, there are no other countries on that list.
    , @RadicalCenter
    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it's not even close.

    Their populations will decline more and more drastically unless the total fertility rate improves massively and soon.

    Latvian is losing more than one percent of its population every year, without exception, I.e. a net decrease of at least 20,000 people each year out of only two million. It will be a country of fewer than one million residents within the lifetime of some readers here, then on downwards faster on current trends.

    There won't be many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians left alive to speak any language. I think this is a tragedy, but the numbers are stark.

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  165. AP says:
    @Anon
    A few words of caution.
    Fertility: every developed or even half-developed country (with the exception of the US) has fertility problem. In terms of its severity, Japan has the worst problem of them all. Ukraine’s main problem is not just low fertility, it’s the situation when many millions of citizens live and work outside of it, for the most part in Russia and Poland. By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991).

    Corruption. Yes, Russian elites are corrupt, but so are the elites of its main foes, including the US. Otherwise, how do you explain that the US spends on “defense” more than the rest of the world put together, and yet does not seem to be fit to fight even puny North Korea? How do you explain persisting problems with F-35 that the US invested hundreds of billions into? Or the fact that the engine of a multi-billion Zumwalt broke down in Panama channel, so that it had to be towed out of it? As for Ukraine, in terms of corruption it’s way ahead of Russia, as it was even in Soviet times. Many people have noted that while the first thing the Ukrainian road police tries to do is to squeeze a bribe out of a driver, whereas after Crimea joined Russia, Crimean road police no longer takes bribes.

    Demographic “stability” of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country. That’s why most gastarbeiters in Russia and Poland are from that part of Ukraine. The people there have two options: join the Ukrainian army (which they are reluctant to do) or get out of the country to find work. Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian. This is likely an overestimation: less educated and less civilized people in Ukraine do not have internet, and that’s the people who largely speak Ukrainian. But this fact is yet another problem for the nationalists.

    Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars. The game does not go well, though: Crimean Tatar language became one of the official languages in Crimea only after it joined Russia; Kiev-sponsored Tatar “leader” Dzhemilev voted for the Europarliament resolution condemning Ukrainian law of exclusive use of Ukrainian in school. Naturally, this law excluded Tatar language, among others. This law was meant to be anti-Russian, but it offended Tatars along with Poles, Hungarians, and Romanians. Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it (while whatever it has or gets is stolen by corrupt officials).

    By the most reliable count (based on bread and flour consumption), only 22-24 million people currently reside in Ukraine (compared to 52 million in 1991)

    Birth figures contradict this weird claim.

    Most Ukrainian migrants are temporary. They work for a few months on Poland, then drive home. Warsaw to Kiev is about a 9 hour drive.

    Demographic “stability” of Ukrainian nationalistic core. The hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism is Western Ukraine (excluding trans-Carpathian region). This is the least populated and the least developed part of the country.

    True of Volyn, not true of Galicia. Here is Ukrainian population density:

    Lviv has about 800,000 people, larger than national capitals like Slovakia’s Bratislava or Lithuania’s Vilnius.

    Another problem was revealed by a sneaky Google non-question: what language do people want their online questioner in. More than 70% opted for Russian.

    Because more results can be found in Russian. For the same reason there are more queries in English, in Russia, than native English-speakers in that country.

    Muslim population. Ukraine does have this problem, it even tries to make a trump card out of it: Crimean Tatars

    When Crimea was part of Ukraine Crimean Tatars were about .5% of the population. They are much less now. Russia is about 10% Muslim, not including undocumented migrants (so another few %). There is no comparison.

    Muslim problem in Ukraine is exacerbated by the fact that, in contrast to Russia, it does not have resources to deal with it

    In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has virtually no Muslims.

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  166. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages.

    Hundreds of thousands speak Welsh after 700 years of English rule. The majority in Friesland speak Frisian. Basque has a 7-digit population of speakers. See Ethnologue. These are not endangered or declining languages.

    There's the world as it is and the world as you wish it to be. You get confused between the two.

    Sorry to disappoint, but the world I wish to be is very different from what you apparently imagine. Not to mention that in Soviet times I was a vocal proponent of the independence of all three Baltic states. They appeared more civilized than the rest. Now I know that the mentality of their elites is purely tribal, of the Hutu-Tutsi variety, further clouded by a severe inferiority complex. How else could you explain the fact that in Latvia the law requires everyone to have an “s” after the first and last name? Like, you would have to be Arts Decos, if that were you name.
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade. What’s more, successful multi-national states have many official languages (Switzerland has four, so does Singapore, Belgium has three, to name just a few). The US does not have an official language, although you do need good English to be successful. In sharp contrast, Baltics and Ukraine have only one official language. That’s a surefire way to undermine your country, but that’s not my problem.
    Knowing what I know now, I could not care less about the Baltics. I left Russia in 1991 (~6 months before the Soviet Union was dissolved) and lived in the States ever since. I work in research, have better publication record and more citations than most Russian Academy of Sciences members, have good funding despite tough highly competitive environment, have full professorship and an endowed chair is in one of the top US universities. Obviously, there is no way I would go back to Russia, considering the state of the science there. However, my father fought against Hitler in WWII. He got decorations and was wounded several times. Therefore, there is no way I can respect or want to visit any country holding Nazi parades. This includes Latvia, Estonia, and present-day Ukraine. Curiously, there are no other countries on that list.

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    • Replies: @AP

    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid
     
    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn't have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.
    , @Art Deco
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade.

    I am reluctant to call a spade a joker. You're at home with making false and inflammatory statements.


    The distinction between 'citizen' and 'non-citizen' is inherent in any polity. If you haven't that distinction, you haven't got a country.
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  167. AP says:
    @Anon
    Sorry to disappoint, but the world I wish to be is very different from what you apparently imagine. Not to mention that in Soviet times I was a vocal proponent of the independence of all three Baltic states. They appeared more civilized than the rest. Now I know that the mentality of their elites is purely tribal, of the Hutu-Tutsi variety, further clouded by a severe inferiority complex. How else could you explain the fact that in Latvia the law requires everyone to have an “s” after the first and last name? Like, you would have to be Arts Decos, if that were you name.
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade. What’s more, successful multi-national states have many official languages (Switzerland has four, so does Singapore, Belgium has three, to name just a few). The US does not have an official language, although you do need good English to be successful. In sharp contrast, Baltics and Ukraine have only one official language. That’s a surefire way to undermine your country, but that’s not my problem.
    Knowing what I know now, I could not care less about the Baltics. I left Russia in 1991 (~6 months before the Soviet Union was dissolved) and lived in the States ever since. I work in research, have better publication record and more citations than most Russian Academy of Sciences members, have good funding despite tough highly competitive environment, have full professorship and an endowed chair is in one of the top US universities. Obviously, there is no way I would go back to Russia, considering the state of the science there. However, my father fought against Hitler in WWII. He got decorations and was wounded several times. Therefore, there is no way I can respect or want to visit any country holding Nazi parades. This includes Latvia, Estonia, and present-day Ukraine. Curiously, there are no other countries on that list.

    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid

    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.

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    • Replies: @Gerard2

    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.
     
    again, you seem to be too thick to realise that their are practical reasons and reasons of principle on why the citizenship laws are a disgrace and detested by all Russians in Latvia. Getting a job is a reason to learn a language...it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can't vote) to you fucktard. There is no precedent in a civilised country for a person to not be given citizenship in the land of their birth.
    under apartheid...there were zero Zulus in government cabinet
    under Latvian apartheid...there are zero Russians in government cabinet...even though they are big wealth creators and 25% +of the population

    Incidentally......proficiency in Zulu was never a requirement for whites after apartheid ended..either to get a job.....or to suddenly have to get their citizenship again. Incidentally , unlike the catastrophic decline of the Latvians and Estonians demographically....there has actually been a steady and healthy increase in white population in South Africa......even though there is a very high rate of murders, rapes, corruption and so on against the whites since the end of Apartheid.....that just about shows how seriously the Baltics are dying you troll POS cretin.
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  168. Jon0815 says:
    @Art Deco
    That’s absurdly exaggerated.

    Military planning is not my business.

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya's population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

    Now, the expense and the bloodshed may improve on some alternative state of affairs. Political decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty. The question is, what are you attempting to improve on by rolling the tanks into the Ukraine? Well, you have a certain subset of Russian chauvinists who fancy Ukrainians cannot function without Russians calling the shots or that the Ukraine is a sort of Eurasian commons with no proprietary population. That's flagrantly silly.

    There were people in this country who had the idea in their heads that the residual parts of British North America ought to be incorporated into the United States. They got their asses handed to them on the battlefield in 1813 and the issue disappeared from American political discourse. Anglophone Canadians have a truncated sense of self, but one thing they're sure of is that Canada is not 'the States'. Re the Ukraine, Russians in their capacity as citizens would benefit by letting it slide; there's seldom a shortage of things to discuss in your domestic affairs.

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.

    I understood you to be claiming the death roll for Russian forces would be six figures. As a total death toll for both sides and civilians, six figures is less implausible, but I think still unrealistic. The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks, and would be unlikely to produce total military and civilian casualties of more than 10,000-20,000 (or about 10-20 times the total casualties per day during the most intense period of fighting in the Donbass conflict). Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

    The high civilian casualty rate in Chechnya was due largely to the fact that in the 90s and early 2000s the Russian army was a poorly trained conscript force (in the 90s it was barely even a functional military organization). And the reason the Iraq War resulted in so many civilian deaths is that the Iraqis began killing each other in sectarian violence. Presumably, nothing similar would happen in Ukraine.

    PS: There was a typo in my last post, that should be 2,500,000 reserve personnel in the Russian military, not 250,000.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?

    2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas. Russia had excellent intelligence on other regions and would have taken them too, had it been fairly cheap and easy to do so. Crimea is 60% Russian, the Donbas republic areas about 45% Russian. Kharkiv oblast is only 25.6% Russian.

    The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks
     
    America started bombing Iraq in March 19 and captured Baghdad in April 9th. I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq's than Russia's is relative to Ukraine's in 2017 (2014 would have been a different story), not to mention the fighting spirit of soldiers (Slavs are not Arabs). I suppose a month or two could also be described as "a few weeks" of course.

    Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.
     
    Depends where. Limited to Kharkiv, probably. In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced. Insurgency could be deadly in those regions.

    Thanks to the Donbas war, Ukraine has 100,000s of men with some familiarity with fighting and shooting. It would be hard to differentiate the pro-Russians from the anti-Russians. An insurgency could be quite expensive.
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  169. AP says:
    @Jon0815

    I note the death toll of the Spanish Civil War exceeded 600,000 on all sides. See also the Soviet sojourn in Afghanistan and the costs of suppressing the Chechen insurrection. Chechenya’s population is under 1.5 million. I keep hearing on these boards what a disaster the Iraq War has been. Well, the recalcitrant Iraqi governorates have a population of about 12 million.
     
    I understood you to be claiming the death roll for Russian forces would be six figures. As a total death toll for both sides and civilians, six figures is less implausible, but I think still unrealistic. The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks, and would be unlikely to produce total military and civilian casualties of more than 10,000-20,000 (or about 10-20 times the total casualties per day during the most intense period of fighting in the Donbass conflict). Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

    The high civilian casualty rate in Chechnya was due largely to the fact that in the 90s and early 2000s the Russian army was a poorly trained conscript force (in the 90s it was barely even a functional military organization). And the reason the Iraq War resulted in so many civilian deaths is that the Iraqis began killing each other in sectarian violence. Presumably, nothing similar would happen in Ukraine.

    PS: There was a typo in my last post, that should be 2,500,000 reserve personnel in the Russian military, not 250,000.

    Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?

    2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas. Russia had excellent intelligence on other regions and would have taken them too, had it been fairly cheap and easy to do so. Crimea is 60% Russian, the Donbas republic areas about 45% Russian. Kharkiv oblast is only 25.6% Russian.

    The initial invasion/conventional combat phase would last at most a few weeks

    America started bombing Iraq in March 19 and captured Baghdad in April 9th. I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017 (2014 would have been a different story), not to mention the fighting spirit of soldiers (Slavs are not Arabs). I suppose a month or two could also be described as “a few weeks” of course.

    Casualties per day in the counter-insurgency phase would be much lower.

    Depends where. Limited to Kharkiv, probably. In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced. Insurgency could be deadly in those regions.

    Thanks to the Donbas war, Ukraine has 100,000s of men with some familiarity with fighting and shooting. It would be hard to differentiate the pro-Russians from the anti-Russians. An insurgency could be quite expensive.

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  170. Jon0815 says:

    Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?

    It wouldn’t make sense for Russia to invade more than the east and south plus Kiev. But even if for some reason Russia invaded all of Ukraine, I think it’s unlikely that Russian casualties would exceed 5000-10000, or not much higher than what the US experienced in Iraq.

    2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas.

    Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn’t been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

    I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017

    Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia’s active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).

    In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced

    The 1940s Red Army had a lot of experience in conventional warfare, but it was also a conscript force without experience or training in counterinsurgency. Also, thanks to advances in body armor and military medicine, far fewer soldiers die from their wounds today than decades ago: If the USA had fought the Iraq War with Vietnam-era medicine, the number of US soldiers killed would have been nearly double. So the number of Russian casualties in an occupation of Western Ukraine today, would probably be more similar to US losses in Iraq than to the Red Army vs. UPA.

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    • Replies: @AP

    "2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas."

    Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn’t been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.
     
    Kharkiv City is not another Donetsk. In the 2010 mayoral election Avakov (Poroshenko's interior minister, who has links to the nationalist/neo-Nazi Azov battalion) got 48% of the vote, losing by only .63%.

    Someone posted pro-Maidan and anti-Maidan vkontake stats. These are a good gauge of the attitudes of young people (the ones who will fight). Anti-Maidan was much more popular in Donetsk - in Kharkiv on the other hand the two sides were evenly divided.

    Moreover, support for Yanukovich during Maidan isn't the same as support for annexation by Russia. That's a much more extreme position, with far fewer adherents. The Russians would have come to own a large city where half the young people hated their presence and where most of the rest of the population didn't want them to be there. Imagine the mess if some local boys take pot shots at Russian occupation troops, they return fire, and local Kharkovites are being killed by foreign Russian soldiers.

    So sure, the city could have been taken fairly easily. There wouldn't be bitter block-by-block fighting as would probably happen in some parts of Kiev. But occupation wouldn't have been so cheap.

    "I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017"

    Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia’s active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).
     
    OTOH the Americans had clear desert and plains in Iraq while the Russian invaders would have cities, forests, and hilly areas to fight through. Ukraine has another 85,000 reserves and 100,000s of demobilized people with some combat and weapons experience. Iraqi forces melted away, Slavs don't tend to do that. Obviously Russia would win in the end, but beyond taking the border city of Kharkiv it would probably be much more costly than invading and occupying Iraq was for the Americans.
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  171. @Art Deco
    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages.

    Hundreds of thousands speak Welsh after 700 years of English rule. The majority in Friesland speak Frisian. Basque has a 7-digit population of speakers. See Ethnologue. These are not endangered or declining languages.

    There's the world as it is and the world as you wish it to be. You get confused between the two.

    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

    Their populations will decline more and more drastically unless the total fertility rate improves massively and soon.

    Latvian is losing more than one percent of its population every year, without exception, I.e. a net decrease of at least 20,000 people each year out of only two million. It will be a country of fewer than one million residents within the lifetime of some readers here, then on downwards faster on current trends.

    There won’t be many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians left alive to speak any language. I think this is a tragedy, but the numbers are stark.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Here is a chart of Latvian ethnic populations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia#/media/File:Population-of-Latvia.svg

    Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

    If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn't sparsely populated back then.
    , @Art Deco
    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

    That's not a problem peculiar to the Baltic states. Total fertility rates in the Baltics are at the European mean. Russia only surpassed the current Baltic rates about 5 years ago and they are still not very far ahead of the Baltics.
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  172. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter
    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it's not even close.

    Their populations will decline more and more drastically unless the total fertility rate improves massively and soon.

    Latvian is losing more than one percent of its population every year, without exception, I.e. a net decrease of at least 20,000 people each year out of only two million. It will be a country of fewer than one million residents within the lifetime of some readers here, then on downwards faster on current trends.

    There won't be many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians left alive to speak any language. I think this is a tragedy, but the numbers are stark.

    Here is a chart of Latvian ethnic populations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia#/media/File:Population-of-Latvia.svg

    Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

    If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn’t sparsely populated back then.

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    • Replies: @Gerard2

    If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn’t sparsely populated back then.
     
    hahahahahahahahaha!!...jeez..that was before industrialization in Latvia you dumb fuck! It would be a catastrophe if Latvia's population deteriorated to that point in the modern era, you idiot

    Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.
     
    This statement of retardedness is like saying that because a higher proportion of Jews in Poland died in there, than Poles did between 39-45...then there was not a very serious problem in loss of ethnic Pole demographic in 1945 Poland ( quickly repaired by the visionary policies of Stalin).

    Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.
     
    ...Latvian nationalists are happy about there being a large reduction in Latvian nationalists ( who were already a very small number)? ...that sounds even more retarded than usual for yourself
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  173. AP says:
    @Jon0815

    Do you mean invading and occupying all of Ukraine or invading and occupying regions such as Kharkiv oblast?
     
    It wouldn't make sense for Russia to invade more than the east and south plus Kiev. But even if for some reason Russia invaded all of Ukraine, I think it's unlikely that Russian casualties would exceed 5000-10000, or not much higher than what the US experienced in Iraq.

    2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas.
     

    Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn't been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

    I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017
     
    Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia's active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).

    In Western Ukraine, Soviets lost more men to UPA (according to Soviet records) than Russians did to Chechens in the Chechen wars. And this was the victorious Soviet military, not the ramshackle Yeltsinite one whom the Chechens faced
     
    The 1940s Red Army had a lot of experience in conventional warfare, but it was also a conscript force without experience or training in counterinsurgency. Also, thanks to advances in body armor and military medicine, far fewer soldiers die from their wounds today than decades ago: If the USA had fought the Iraq War with Vietnam-era medicine, the number of US soldiers killed would have been nearly double. So the number of Russian casualties in an occupation of Western Ukraine today, would probably be more similar to US losses in Iraq than to the Red Army vs. UPA.

    “2014 was the opportunity to take as much as could be easily taken. Contrary to the dream of Ruisisan nationalists, this came down to just Crimea and the southeastern 40% (with 60% of the population) of Donbas.”

    Kharkiv city (I believe about 40% Russian, 55% Ukrainian) and some of the surrounding oblast could also have been taken pretty easily in 2014, with little resistance afterward, if Putin hadn’t been stupidly determined not to openly use troops anywhere in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

    Kharkiv City is not another Donetsk. In the 2010 mayoral election Avakov (Poroshenko’s interior minister, who has links to the nationalist/neo-Nazi Azov battalion) got 48% of the vote, losing by only .63%.

    Someone posted pro-Maidan and anti-Maidan vkontake stats. These are a good gauge of the attitudes of young people (the ones who will fight). Anti-Maidan was much more popular in Donetsk – in Kharkiv on the other hand the two sides were evenly divided.

    Moreover, support for Yanukovich during Maidan isn’t the same as support for annexation by Russia. That’s a much more extreme position, with far fewer adherents. The Russians would have come to own a large city where half the young people hated their presence and where most of the rest of the population didn’t want them to be there. Imagine the mess if some local boys take pot shots at Russian occupation troops, they return fire, and local Kharkovites are being killed by foreign Russian soldiers.

    So sure, the city could have been taken fairly easily. There wouldn’t be bitter block-by-block fighting as would probably happen in some parts of Kiev. But occupation wouldn’t have been so cheap.

    “I think in 2003 the US military was stronger relative to Iraq’s than Russia’s is relative to Ukraine’s in 2017″

    Overall, yes, but not so much in terms of the actual number of tanks, troops etc. that the US had to transport across thousands of miles of ocean to Iraq. The total coalition forces invading Iraq numbered almost exactly the same as the Iraqi army (380,000 vs. 375,000). The Ukrainian army numbers about 260,000, while Russia’s active duty Ground Forces and Airborne Troops number about 420,000 (and presumably they would be assisted by the 40,000 DLNR troops).

    OTOH the Americans had clear desert and plains in Iraq while the Russian invaders would have cities, forests, and hilly areas to fight through. Ukraine has another 85,000 reserves and 100,000s of demobilized people with some combat and weapons experience. Iraqi forces melted away, Slavs don’t tend to do that. Obviously Russia would win in the end, but beyond taking the border city of Kharkiv it would probably be much more costly than invading and occupying Iraq was for the Americans.

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  174. Gerard2 says:
    @Anonymous

    The funniest thing is, ethnic Russians are the slowest declining segment of Latvian population, even though they are legally non-citizens there.
     
    This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) - the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn't as deeply rooted - had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians). But at least we didn't drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).


    Latvian authorities are worried about the emigration of ethnic Latvians to more prosperous EU countries, and their reluctance to come back or even teach their children Latvian language.
     
    This is a problem for all Eastern Europeans (except maybe Belorussians) - I'm sure you've met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian. But there are Latvian language and school curricula programs for kids abroad. In fact, the use of the Baltic languages has increased a lot (you may not know this but all of the EU legislation and essentially every meeting is translated into Baltic languages, the languages are used in international sales, IT terminology is being developed and we also create machine learning and AI language tools). Most Russians in Latvia are citizens, 20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion), many Russian city mayors, the ones who are not citizens are so by their own choice - they don't want to naturalize their children because they still have relatives in Russia and it would impede with them visiting there (they'd need a Russian visa).


    Lithuania has the same problem,
     
    No it doesn't since Lithuania never had a huge Russian influx - they kept it below 7-10% of the population, how they managed it we don't know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification. Also, the military center was organized in Latvia, more so than Lithuania.


    The only Baltic state with modest population loss is Estonia, and even there ethnic Estonians are more likely to leave the country for good than ethnic Russians.
     
    I'm sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let's say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B. The Baltic states in general are thriving. Ofc, it's not ideal, and there can always be minor adjustments (both politically and economically), but in general the living standard is going up, the climate for exports this past year was very healthy. Unemployment is down, we will need labor soon, we'll need those well educated and white Ukies. You did mention the Russian transit, and, yes, it's an issue (and not pleasant, nothing new there), but our ports have a better infrastructure and the quality of service we offer is higher.

    Unless current trends change, in a few decades their languages are likely to go the way of Inuit languages. In this sense they are in a worse situation than tiny Lichtenstein: those guys speak German, which certainly won’t disappear, whereas Balts speak their own tribal languages (there are three versions of Latvian, for example). But that’s their problem.
     
    A few decades? Do you mean like 50 years? No, that's just nutty. The Baltic languages will probably be around for hundreds of years (which isn't much, I agree). Possibly beyond. There are no three versions of Latvian (lol) - there is standard Latvian and dialects (some of which are cultivated, such as Latgalian (originally from Eastern Latvia), by introducing the first Latgalian ATM recently). Would you be happy if there were fewer languages and everyone spoke Spanish, English or Chinese? Do you prefer that all Europeans spoke only English? Because it's def not going to be Russian, my friend, we Balts (and Ukies) are the last non-Russkies who still speak it as a second language. So be nice.

    This is simply not true (or did you mean the other way around?) – the Russian population has declined, for various reasons (wasn’t as deeply rooted – had immigrated there as recent as the 1980s, left with the Soviet military (mostly young men with families), have an older population structure and have a slightly lower fertility rate than ethnic Latvians).

    Actually, you Baltic cretin….

    [MORE]

    more Latvians have left Latvia in the last 3 years than have ethnic Russians. The percentage of each ethnic group isn’t that important when we are talking about an already small number of people in a pseudo-state that has pretty much never existed before

    I’m sure you’ve met second gen Russians in the US who can hardly speak Russian

    err..nop actually….but is is idiotic to include second generation as part of the argument….the poster was clearly referring to first generation.

    Most Russians in Latvia are citizens

    …errrr a huge percentage of Russians , after 26 years, are not citizens, most Russians in Latvia think they should automatically have been given citizenship upon the end of the USSR…as any civilised country would have done . Because most Russians ( at a very,very,very slow rate that clearly shows what a rotten law they think it is) have now gotten citizenship is because they have to work and get on with their lives you moron…if the EU and US actually did something to help in this issue they would find an extremely powerful sentiment of russians in Latvia who think it is a big injustice. Anyway, ‘most’ isn’t good enough you cretin…..1/3rd of Russians in latvia don’t have citizenship, there was an increase in Russians taking latvian citizenship only because of EU membership and NOTHING to do with the Latvian state’s policies…otherwise it would be even more a pitiful reflection on the failed Latvian state, than it is now.

    20 seats out of a 100 in the parliament are Russian (close to their proportion)

    …the result is fixed so that those 20 seats, even though they are the majority party ,can never hold power ( as they would do in England) …not because of any lift or right wing position they have…but only because of their pro=Russian views.
    ….Russian party does not mean they are all Russian you idiot. 25% Russian should mean that 25% of the Latvian cabinet government are Russian….that figure is actually 0%. Your cretinous post fails to notice that there was a sizeable amount of mixed marriage between Latvians and Russians…and a very large proportion of marriages of Estonians and Russians

    Many Russian city mayors

    …..very limited relevance on many important issues. We also have the ridiculous case, due to a country’s apartheid laws, where the Mayor of Riga’s own mother is a “non-citizen”!

    But at least we didn’t drive them out with sticks and knives like the Chechens and Azeris did (not that we would).

    …errr you idiots fought with the Nazis you brainless fucktard,

    how they managed it we don’t know but we think it was because their local party leaders went to Moscow with bribes in the 1950s asking not to send in as many Russians and other E.Slavs, thus being able to defy the Russification

    the military centre point is true…but the other reason was because it has the same compatibility for the same type of industries as Belarus, you idiot, thus a lack of Russians needing to be there in Lithuania – but in Belarus instead

    I’m sorry but this is complete and utter nonsense. There is absolutely no evidence of that, in fact, it skews slightly against the Russian population. Btw, the Estonians that do move to, let’s say, London, create start ups that eventually get valued up to $1B.

    hahahahah! Estonians ‘successful” abroad…dont talk laughable bollocks you idiot. 1 Estonian, due to his soviet education having a big company is not a indicator of any trend in what we already know is a failed ethnic Estnonian population. “No evidence”….many Estonians have left Estonia you cretin

    There is more crap from you further down but I won’t bother

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  175. Gerard2 says:
    @AP
    Here is a chart of Latvian ethnic populations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia#/media/File:Population-of-Latvia.svg

    Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

    If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn't sparsely populated back then.

    [MORE]

    If Latvia drops to under a million people it will be as it was in the mid 19th century. Latvia wasn’t sparsely populated back then.

    hahahahahahahahaha!!…jeez..that was before industrialization in Latvia you dumb fuck! It would be a catastrophe if Latvia’s population deteriorated to that point in the modern era, you idiot

    Largest drop has been in the number of non-Latvians. Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

    This statement of retardedness is like saying that because a higher proportion of Jews in Poland died in there, than Poles did between 39-45…then there was not a very serious problem in loss of ethnic Pole demographic in 1945 Poland ( quickly repaired by the visionary policies of Stalin).

    Latvian nationalists are probably not unhappy about this.

    …Latvian nationalists are happy about there being a large reduction in Latvian nationalists ( who were already a very small number)? …that sounds even more retarded than usual for yourself

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  176. Gerard2 says:
    @AP

    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid
     
    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn't have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.

    [MORE]

    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.

    again, you seem to be too thick to realise that their are practical reasons and reasons of principle on why the citizenship laws are a disgrace and detested by all Russians in Latvia. Getting a job is a reason to learn a language…it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can’t vote) to you fucktard. There is no precedent in a civilised country for a person to not be given citizenship in the land of their birth.
    under apartheid…there were zero Zulus in government cabinet
    under Latvian apartheid…there are zero Russians in government cabinet…even though they are big wealth creators and 25% +of the population

    Incidentally……proficiency in Zulu was never a requirement for whites after apartheid ended..either to get a job…..or to suddenly have to get their citizenship again. Incidentally , unlike the catastrophic decline of the Latvians and Estonians demographically….there has actually been a steady and healthy increase in white population in South Africa……even though there is a very high rate of murders, rapes, corruption and so on against the whites since the end of Apartheid…..that just about shows how seriously the Baltics are dying you troll POS cretin.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art Deco
    You live in Latvia, you have to learn the language if you want the benefits which derive from citizenship. If you want to simply go on about your business, that option's there as well, which is why you have a six-figure population of resident aliens therein.


    With regard to South Africa, there are about 8 different African languages there, though some of them (e.g. Zulu and Xhosa) are mutually intelligible. Not bloody likely any one of them would be imposed on the broader population, most particularly when English is more widely spoken by South African blacks than any one of the tribal languages is. (Facility in English or in Afrikaans was insufficient for 1st class citizenship in South Africa, which is illustrative of the difference between South Africa ca. 1952 and Latvia today - at least illustrative for those not terminally pig-headed).
    , @Art Deco
    it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can’t vote) to you fucktard.


    When a great many of them were born, the only voting people did was the pantomime the Communist Party offered every few years.

    That aside, it's a reasonable inference that about 2/3 of the Russian population in Latvia derives from Soviet-era colonization. It's not a breach of courtesy to expect the colonists to learn to speak to the natives, especially if they want a civil service job.
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  177. Art Deco says:
    @RadicalCenter
    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it's not even close.

    Their populations will decline more and more drastically unless the total fertility rate improves massively and soon.

    Latvian is losing more than one percent of its population every year, without exception, I.e. a net decrease of at least 20,000 people each year out of only two million. It will be a country of fewer than one million residents within the lifetime of some readers here, then on downwards faster on current trends.

    There won't be many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians left alive to speak any language. I think this is a tragedy, but the numbers are stark.

    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

    That’s not a problem peculiar to the Baltic states. Total fertility rates in the Baltics are at the European mean. Russia only surpassed the current Baltic rates about 5 years ago and they are still not very far ahead of the Baltics.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    It is slightly above the European mean. More second kids for Latvians than Russians. When Russians move into Estonian society they too start having more kids.
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  178. Art Deco says:
    @Anon
    Sorry to disappoint, but the world I wish to be is very different from what you apparently imagine. Not to mention that in Soviet times I was a vocal proponent of the independence of all three Baltic states. They appeared more civilized than the rest. Now I know that the mentality of their elites is purely tribal, of the Hutu-Tutsi variety, further clouded by a severe inferiority complex. How else could you explain the fact that in Latvia the law requires everyone to have an “s” after the first and last name? Like, you would have to be Arts Decos, if that were you name.
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade. What’s more, successful multi-national states have many official languages (Switzerland has four, so does Singapore, Belgium has three, to name just a few). The US does not have an official language, although you do need good English to be successful. In sharp contrast, Baltics and Ukraine have only one official language. That’s a surefire way to undermine your country, but that’s not my problem.
    Knowing what I know now, I could not care less about the Baltics. I left Russia in 1991 (~6 months before the Soviet Union was dissolved) and lived in the States ever since. I work in research, have better publication record and more citations than most Russian Academy of Sciences members, have good funding despite tough highly competitive environment, have full professorship and an endowed chair is in one of the top US universities. Obviously, there is no way I would go back to Russia, considering the state of the science there. However, my father fought against Hitler in WWII. He got decorations and was wounded several times. Therefore, there is no way I can respect or want to visit any country holding Nazi parades. This includes Latvia, Estonia, and present-day Ukraine. Curiously, there are no other countries on that list.

    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade.

    I am reluctant to call a spade a joker. You’re at home with making false and inflammatory statements.

    The distinction between ‘citizen’ and ‘non-citizen’ is inherent in any polity. If you haven’t that distinction, you haven’t got a country.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Nice try, but I don’t think you succeeded in deceiving me or other readers: people with clinically low IQ consume “official” news and do not go to alt media sites, like this one. The context of the conversation clearly shows that I meant the distinction between citizen and non-citizen among people who were born there, in most cases whose parents were born there. In a normal country non-citizen is someone who immigrated, whereas people born locally are citizens. This is true even in not so normal not quite countries, like Lithuania. No matter what falsehoods the defenders of the indefensible push forward, the countries that practice apartheid are doomed. Good riddance, if you ask me.
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  179. Art Deco says:
    @Gerard2

    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.
     
    again, you seem to be too thick to realise that their are practical reasons and reasons of principle on why the citizenship laws are a disgrace and detested by all Russians in Latvia. Getting a job is a reason to learn a language...it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can't vote) to you fucktard. There is no precedent in a civilised country for a person to not be given citizenship in the land of their birth.
    under apartheid...there were zero Zulus in government cabinet
    under Latvian apartheid...there are zero Russians in government cabinet...even though they are big wealth creators and 25% +of the population

    Incidentally......proficiency in Zulu was never a requirement for whites after apartheid ended..either to get a job.....or to suddenly have to get their citizenship again. Incidentally , unlike the catastrophic decline of the Latvians and Estonians demographically....there has actually been a steady and healthy increase in white population in South Africa......even though there is a very high rate of murders, rapes, corruption and so on against the whites since the end of Apartheid.....that just about shows how seriously the Baltics are dying you troll POS cretin.

    You live in Latvia, you have to learn the language if you want the benefits which derive from citizenship. If you want to simply go on about your business, that option’s there as well, which is why you have a six-figure population of resident aliens therein.

    With regard to South Africa, there are about 8 different African languages there, though some of them (e.g. Zulu and Xhosa) are mutually intelligible. Not bloody likely any one of them would be imposed on the broader population, most particularly when English is more widely spoken by South African blacks than any one of the tribal languages is. (Facility in English or in Afrikaans was insufficient for 1st class citizenship in South Africa, which is illustrative of the difference between South Africa ca. 1952 and Latvia today – at least illustrative for those not terminally pig-headed).

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  180. Art Deco says:
    @Gerard2

    I dunno, I suspect that if a Zulu learned English he wouldn’t have been given all the same rights as a white English South African, under apartheid.
     
    again, you seem to be too thick to realise that their are practical reasons and reasons of principle on why the citizenship laws are a disgrace and detested by all Russians in Latvia. Getting a job is a reason to learn a language...it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can't vote) to you fucktard. There is no precedent in a civilised country for a person to not be given citizenship in the land of their birth.
    under apartheid...there were zero Zulus in government cabinet
    under Latvian apartheid...there are zero Russians in government cabinet...even though they are big wealth creators and 25% +of the population

    Incidentally......proficiency in Zulu was never a requirement for whites after apartheid ended..either to get a job.....or to suddenly have to get their citizenship again. Incidentally , unlike the catastrophic decline of the Latvians and Estonians demographically....there has actually been a steady and healthy increase in white population in South Africa......even though there is a very high rate of murders, rapes, corruption and so on against the whites since the end of Apartheid.....that just about shows how seriously the Baltics are dying you troll POS cretin.

    it is absolutely no basis for somebody to get a citizenship in a place they were born in and pay taxes ( but can’t vote) to you fucktard.

    When a great many of them were born, the only voting people did was the pantomime the Communist Party offered every few years.

    That aside, it’s a reasonable inference that about 2/3 of the Russian population in Latvia derives from Soviet-era colonization. It’s not a breach of courtesy to expect the colonists to learn to speak to the natives, especially if they want a civil service job.

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  181. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    The distinction between citizens and non-citizens is still apartheid, even though you are apparently reluctant to call a spade a spade.

    I am reluctant to call a spade a joker. You're at home with making false and inflammatory statements.


    The distinction between 'citizen' and 'non-citizen' is inherent in any polity. If you haven't that distinction, you haven't got a country.

    Nice try, but I don’t think you succeeded in deceiving me or other readers: people with clinically low IQ consume “official” news and do not go to alt media sites, like this one. The context of the conversation clearly shows that I meant the distinction between citizen and non-citizen among people who were born there, in most cases whose parents were born there. In a normal country non-citizen is someone who immigrated, whereas people born locally are citizens. This is true even in not so normal not quite countries, like Lithuania. No matter what falsehoods the defenders of the indefensible push forward, the countries that practice apartheid are doomed. Good riddance, if you ask me.

    Read More
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  182. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Art Deco
    What is so hard to grasp about this: the Baltic peoples do NOT have enough children to replace themselves, and it’s not even close.

    That's not a problem peculiar to the Baltic states. Total fertility rates in the Baltics are at the European mean. Russia only surpassed the current Baltic rates about 5 years ago and they are still not very far ahead of the Baltics.

    It is slightly above the European mean. More second kids for Latvians than Russians. When Russians move into Estonian society they too start having more kids.

    Read More
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  183. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Gerard’s been watching Mesto vstrechi a lot – the show where 20% of truth about Russia’s neighbors is mixed with 80% of inaccurate exaggerations and zero mention of tbe positives. Keep believing it, retrograde fucks.

    Read More
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