I am not aware of any active Russian political predictions markets, apart from “Will Vladimir Putin be president of Russia at the end of 2018?” at PredictIt (currently at 93% FWIW).
I suppose there are three main reasons for this:
1. Interesting American fads only reach Russia with a lag time of several times, if they ever do.
2. Russian politics is predictable. Sure, Putin will win. OTOH, predicting things such as the turnout rate, or Zhirinovsky’s share of the vote, or whether or not Navalny spends more than 80 days in jail in 2018, could still be pretty fun.
3. Legal obstructions. Online betting is highly restricted in Russia (e.g. I can’t even access Oddschecker without a VPN).
Furthermore, political predictions market would seem to be outright banned by Article 56, part 3 of the Russian elections law of 2003, which forbids “lotteries and other risk based games” where the winning of prizes depends on the results of the elections.
Even so, VCIOM has opened a predictions market, apparently skirting the law because they don’t take money from any of the participants and thus fail to qualify as a lottery or risk-based game.
Here are the current predictions: Putin – 72%, Grudinin – 11%, Zhirinovsky – 10%, Sobchak – 2%, with turnout pegged at 65%.
Activity seems to be very low, so I don’t think this market is informationally worth much.
On the same website subsection as the predictions market, VCIOM has also released more detailed polls in terms of electoral socio-demographics, which confirm many of the observations I have long made on Russian politics.
(In the following charts: Blue = Putin; Yellow = Zhirinovsky; Pink = Grudinin; Gray = Sobchak; Green = Yavlinsky; Blue = Titov).
Just for orientation: If the elections were to be held on the next Sunday, around 73% would vote for Putin.
Female political conformism: As in the FOM poll, Putin scores much better with women (~78%) than with men (~68%), whereas both the Communist and nationalist candidate score twice better amongst the men, if from a low base.
Old communists, young nationalists: Also as in the FOM poll, the 18-24 year olds are giving Zhirinovsky around 10% to Grudinin’s 5%, while the 60+ year olds are giving 10% to Grudinin and almost nothing to Zhirinovsky.
Some other observations:
Employment: As is an old-established pattern, state workers (~75%) support Putin more than workers in the private sector (~70%).
Location: As usual, residents of Moscow and Saint-Petersburg are the least pro-Putin (~68%), relative to residents of large cities (~70%), small cities (~75), and rural areas (close to 80%).
Income: People with the lowest incomes are significantly more likely to vote for Zhirinovsky, presumably because they tend to the young (more nationalist) and the unemployed.
Anti-rating: Sobchak has by far the highest.
In other Russian elections news, Navalny is planning to lead his flock to a new series of protest meetings tomorrow (Jan 28) in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. I don’t expect anything interesting to happen either now or before the elections in general. Navalny will be arrested, probably before he shows up, and will spend a fortnight in jail. 200 people will get arrested. Turnout will not exceed 10,000, the maximum (realistic) estimate for turnout at the last protests on Tverskaya in March 2017. I probably won’t bother showing up to cover the event.