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us-tfr-2016

Via Cicerone, based on data from the CDC for 2016.

Audacious Epigone has already written a post to which I have little to add in way of political analysis.

You can compare these figures to native European TFR’s here.

 
• Category: Race/Ethnicity • Tags: Fertility, United States 
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  1. As noted by Audacious Epigone, Maine and Minnesota stand out for their high black TFRs (3.09 and 2.86) due largely to Somalis.

    Looking through the other states I was surprised by the high (black) rates for North Dakota (3.28) and South Dakota (3.14). These are again presumably due to new African arrivals, as both states are near the top of the list in per capita refugee resettlement — over the last 2 years ND is in fact in first place.

    http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/n-d-leads-nation-in-refugee-resettlement-per-capita/article_94b9496f-14b7-52e5-80a9-64f623909e8f.html

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    • Replies: @Kevin O'Keeffe

    As noted by Audacious Epigone, Maine and Minnesota stand out for their high black TFRs (3.09 and 2.86) due largely to Somalis.
     
    South Dakota too (and for the precise same reason; I reside in South Dakota, so you can reasonably take my word on that).
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  2. So white American TFR is very slightly ahead of ethnic Russian TFR.

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  3. Noteworthy:

    The most Catholic state in America, Rhode Island, has the lowest white TFR.
    The 3rd most Catholic state, Massachusetts, has the 2nd lowest white TFR.
    The 4th most Catholic state, Connecticut, has the 3rd lowest white TFR.

    The whites there are mostly Irish and Italian.

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    • Replies: @Cicerone
    New York and New Jersey aren‘t as low as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as their White TFRs are boosted by Ultraorthodox Jews. Otherwise there's an even stronger relationship with the share of Catholics.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Fair enough. I’d add only that a small but not negligible portion of the whites in RI are Portuguese. Same, to a proportionally lesser extent, in Massachusetts.

    There are also plenty of WASPs in CT. It’s not just jews and rich foreigners who attend Rye Country Day ;)
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  4. What I wonder is how dysgenic are these trends within each group. Has Shockley been borne out? Is there a floor? Or is the collapse of the welfare system the floor? Can it even collapse, with all the upcoming automation?

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  5. @Bliss
    Noteworthy:

    The most Catholic state in America, Rhode Island, has the lowest white TFR.
    The 3rd most Catholic state, Massachusetts, has the 2nd lowest white TFR.
    The 4th most Catholic state, Connecticut, has the 3rd lowest white TFR.

    The whites there are mostly Irish and Italian.


    http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/r4r55xbrkeslnv7m9qjqtg.png

    New York and New Jersey aren‘t as low as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as their White TFRs are boosted by Ultraorthodox Jews. Otherwise there’s an even stronger relationship with the share of Catholics.

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  6. It’s probably worse than this, America considers non whites such as jews, Arabs, and all the other MENA types as white, take them out and the numbers are even more shocking.

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  7. Seems to me the relationship is more coincidental than anything else. These are all high cost of living states. It’s an important trend but not a casual one.

    The NE is an old, settled area. Housing stock is quite limited due to zoning and immigration pressures. Older cities and towns often have a lot of built in pension obligations that places like Florida and California don’t have.

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  8. @Bliss
    Noteworthy:

    The most Catholic state in America, Rhode Island, has the lowest white TFR.
    The 3rd most Catholic state, Massachusetts, has the 2nd lowest white TFR.
    The 4th most Catholic state, Connecticut, has the 3rd lowest white TFR.

    The whites there are mostly Irish and Italian.


    http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/r4r55xbrkeslnv7m9qjqtg.png

    Fair enough. I’d add only that a small but not negligible portion of the whites in RI are Portuguese. Same, to a proportionally lesser extent, in Massachusetts.

    There are also plenty of WASPs in CT. It’s not just jews and rich foreigners who attend Rye Country Day ;)

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  9. So, all races are at least a little below the replacement rate. If they could only get immigration under control and more restricted, there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US.

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    • Replies: @neutral

    there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US
     
    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.
    , @RadicalCenter
    No, Hispanics would continue to constitute an ever larger percentage of the population, even under that improved scenario.
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  10. @Dmitry
    So, all races are at least a little below the replacement rate. If they could only get immigration under control and more restricted, there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US.

    there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US

    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.
     
    I don't have such a negative view of it. Pushkin himself was a product of miscegenation. Maybe the picture is more negative when the European origin people in America become a smaller majority in the future, even as the country relies on its European heritage.

    I know another possibly legitimate issue that would be mentioned on this board, would be to do with how this is going to lower national IQ levels among European-heritage Americans, as African Americans on average score much lower on the IQ tests than European-Americans, and this is often attributed to heredity.

    But to the extent intelligence is hereditary, millions of Americans will be genetically engineering their children for intelligence within the century - we can count on that (with potentially quite creepy consequences).

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  11. @neutral

    there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US
     
    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.

    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.

    I don’t have such a negative view of it. Pushkin himself was a product of miscegenation. Maybe the picture is more negative when the European origin people in America become a smaller majority in the future, even as the country relies on its European heritage.

    I know another possibly legitimate issue that would be mentioned on this board, would be to do with how this is going to lower national IQ levels among European-heritage Americans, as African Americans on average score much lower on the IQ tests than European-Americans, and this is often attributed to heredity.

    But to the extent intelligence is hereditary, millions of Americans will be genetically engineering their children for intelligence within the century – we can count on that (with potentially quite creepy consequences).

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    The great majority of Americans will be too poor to even consider paying for such genetic techniques.
    , @Saxon
    Don't count your chickens before your eggs hatch on genetic engineering for intelligence. This is something that will need likely generations to even test to see if it works correctly and safely once it's any real testing begins. The populations responsible for virtually all scientific achievement, advancement and invention are being rapidly depleted, too.
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  12. @for-the-record
    As noted by Audacious Epigone, Maine and Minnesota stand out for their high black TFRs (3.09 and 2.86) due largely to Somalis.

    Looking through the other states I was surprised by the high (black) rates for North Dakota (3.28) and South Dakota (3.14). These are again presumably due to new African arrivals, as both states are near the top of the list in per capita refugee resettlement -- over the last 2 years ND is in fact in first place.

    http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/n-d-leads-nation-in-refugee-resettlement-per-capita/article_94b9496f-14b7-52e5-80a9-64f623909e8f.html

    As noted by Audacious Epigone, Maine and Minnesota stand out for their high black TFRs (3.09 and 2.86) due largely to Somalis.

    South Dakota too (and for the precise same reason; I reside in South Dakota, so you can reasonably take my word on that).

    Read More
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  13. Interesting table. Canadian provinces Saskatchewan and Manitoba that border North Dakota have the highest TFRs and are closer to their American neighbor than to other parts of Canada. This may prove Dmitry’s point that there’s no much evidence of impact on fertility rates occurring from government policy (obviously very different in two countries).

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/european-tfr-by-immigration-status/#comment-2213423

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  14. It was widely reported that the total U.S. TFR dropped to 1.77 as of June
    2017. Both the wedding rates and the fertility rates are in free fall in the
    United States. However, it is estimated that the U.S. is still experiencing
    a population explosion (population growing at 3.5 million a year) due to
    the demographic momentum, and legal and illegal immigration. The
    Chinese and (East) Indians are still immigrating to the U.S. at the
    rates of 60-70,000 each. Compare this to the continuing population
    explosion in India (15- 16 million a year) and China (6-7 million a year).

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  15. Any insight into why Hawaii’s TFR is so high? It’s by far the highest among all the blue states. However it seems like all the ingredients for low white fertility are there. Housing is very expensive and scarce. The job market barely supports anything other than low-skilled service sector work. Schools, especially in affordable neighborhoods, are low quality.

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  16. @Dmitry
    So, all races are at least a little below the replacement rate. If they could only get immigration under control and more restricted, there would be (in theory) no great demographic changes coming in the US.

    No, Hispanics would continue to constitute an ever larger percentage of the population, even under that improved scenario.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  17. @Dmitry

    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.
     
    I don't have such a negative view of it. Pushkin himself was a product of miscegenation. Maybe the picture is more negative when the European origin people in America become a smaller majority in the future, even as the country relies on its European heritage.

    I know another possibly legitimate issue that would be mentioned on this board, would be to do with how this is going to lower national IQ levels among European-heritage Americans, as African Americans on average score much lower on the IQ tests than European-Americans, and this is often attributed to heredity.

    But to the extent intelligence is hereditary, millions of Americans will be genetically engineering their children for intelligence within the century - we can count on that (with potentially quite creepy consequences).

    The great majority of Americans will be too poor to even consider paying for such genetic techniques.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  18. Aly says:

    Simple solution is to start considering Hispanics what they basically are – white people. At least half of them are predominatly white, and other half is also part-white. Also about half of them in USA already self identify as white.
    For me, not accepting them as white is wrong, stupid and very short-sighted. What, Ted Cruz for example is not white? Or even Marco Rubio? Texas is “minority-majority” state for some time and is still red state, because Texas Hispanics are White Americans. Hispanics can be right-wing, and are already very conservative, right just should accept them. One-drop rule, especially in case of Hispanics (who are mostly white) is ridiculous.
    With that change you instantly “transfer” tens of millions of people from minorities to white category and you solved the problem for decades.

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  19. @Dmitry

    Immigration is only half the problem, miscegenation is an equally destructive trend. Since non whites are by now the real majority, that means with miscegenation that whites will rapidly approach the single digit percentage numbers of the total population.
     
    I don't have such a negative view of it. Pushkin himself was a product of miscegenation. Maybe the picture is more negative when the European origin people in America become a smaller majority in the future, even as the country relies on its European heritage.

    I know another possibly legitimate issue that would be mentioned on this board, would be to do with how this is going to lower national IQ levels among European-heritage Americans, as African Americans on average score much lower on the IQ tests than European-Americans, and this is often attributed to heredity.

    But to the extent intelligence is hereditary, millions of Americans will be genetically engineering their children for intelligence within the century - we can count on that (with potentially quite creepy consequences).

    Don’t count your chickens before your eggs hatch on genetic engineering for intelligence. This is something that will need likely generations to even test to see if it works correctly and safely once it’s any real testing begins. The populations responsible for virtually all scientific achievement, advancement and invention are being rapidly depleted, too.

    Read More
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