Odds of Republicans winning according to:
|Good Judgment Open||23%||83%|
I quote the “classic” scenario from FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver’s site), which includes polls and “fundamentals” but no expert assessments. PredictWise is based on predictions markets, polling, and fundamentals.
Hypermind is a predictions market that uses experts.
Oddschecker averages the implied probabilities from numerous betting sites. PredictIt is by far the most popular predictions market, where you need to pay to play.
Augur is a cryptocurrency based predictions market.
Good Judgment Open and Metaculus are open to anyone and don’t require money.
While it’s tempting to listen to the people who put their money where their mouths are, the gamblers also gave Le Pen a ~33% chance of victory before the first round of the French Presidential elections last year. That was always going to be nonsense.
I’ll make the safe prediction that Republicans will keep the Senate but lose the House.
Otherwise, I agree with James Jatras’ gloomy presentiments. The Dem campaign to impeach Trump will kick into high gear, censorship will increase, and the neocons will be going off the reservation.