So the results are in, and…
Erdogan wins 52.4%, winning the Presidency – a much more powerful position after the 2017 referendum – on the first round.
The AKP just failed to get a majority of seats, though it comfortable clears that level in coalition with the nationalist MHP.
Was there fraud? No hard statistical evidence of that, at least so far. But a couple of things that are suspicious at a glance: (1) Erdogan’s lead declined more slowly as the results came in than usual, e.g. YES during the 2017 referendum; (2) Erdogan now did better than all but 2 polls since May, whereas the polls were quite accurate (if highly dispersed) on the referendum.
Still, there can’t have been too much fraud, since the general electoral pattern of Turkey remained steady.
Abroad as at home: The more stupid (Anatolian immigrants) vote for Le Based Erdogan, while the cleverer vote for Ince (expats – students, professionals, etc.).
In this respect, Turkey is the same as the US (expats vote Clinton, rednecks – Trump), France (Macron/Le Pen), Russia (Prokhorov, Sobchak, etc./Putin), Czechia (liberals/Zeman), etc. It’s a truly universal pattern.