It is very easy to be pessimistic about the results of the just concluded regional French elections, in which the Front National failed to win a single region.
The French voters have spoken: Houellebecq is brilliant.
— John Durant (@johndurant) December 13, 2015
Thanks to the Socialists throwing multiple regions in Houellebecqian manner, the obvious big victor were The Republicans of Nicolas “Le Métissage Obligatoire” Sarkozy. Surely in the wake of the Paris Attacks they should have done at least a bit better.
But things are not so one-sided as they might first appear. Compared to its past performance, the Front National continues to break new ground on a surge that has continued non-stop since Marine Le Pen ascended to power in 2011.
As you can see from the graph above, compiled on the basis of data from France’s Interior Ministry, the approximately 6.5 million votes the Front National got in the second round of voting in the regional elections represents a doubling of the sorts of figures they had been getting in the prior three decades.
As such, the boast of the rising star of the FN (and exceedingly photogenic) Marion Le Pen that “tomorrow we will be a majority” was not necessarily as unhinged at it might first appear.
"Il n'y a plus de plafond de verre. Il était de 25% en 2010, il est aujourd'hui de 48% ! Demain nous serons majoritaires !"
— Marion Le Pen (@Marion_M_Le_Pen) December 13, 2015
The ideas of the FN are enjoying record support in French society, and will have only risen since the Paris Attacks.
Perhaps even more importantly, the FN is increasingly the party of the ethnic French youth. Support for the FN rises from 20% amongst the over 60 year olds to 35% amongst the 18-24 olds. (Unfortunately, though, it is also the party of the least well educated: 36% support from high school drops, declining to just 14% amongst those with a full university education. This is bad for French identitarians since in “democracies” policy is almost invariably determined by the elites).
But is there enough momentum to take Marine Le Pen to the Élysée Palace in the 2017 elections or a bit later before all hope is lost? The moderate right, the cuckservatives, regardless of their cyclical success this round, would appear to be doomed to longterm decline due to pure demographics. As mass Third World immigration proceeds apace and politics go ethnic as they inevitably do in such situations, it would not be unreasonable to expect the Socialists and FN to become the two major “poles” in this brave new Levantine landscape.
One suspects that the ultimate trajectory of France this century – that is, whether it remains France or becomes Firanja – will mainly be decided by a race between the Socialists to import new voters and by the Front National to “awaken” the Charlemagnes and Jeanne d’Arcs who no doubt still slumber deep within.