Latest contribution to the US-Russia.org Expert Discussion Panel on the question of which US Presidential candidate is best able to meet the challenges ahead: When predicting election outcomes, I prefer to listen to those who put their money where their mouths are. As of the time of writing, the Intrade predictions market gives a 66%... Read More
As I noted in my old post on the false dichotomy between race denial and racism, there is a regrettable degree of overlap between racism and race realism. This shouldn't however blind us to the real distinctions between the two, which were very succinctly summarized by Half Sigma thus: This applies to comments such as... Read More
Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it's more likely than not that I've lost it. Not that I'm saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).
At least in the context of the US Presidential elections according to this nifty quiz. Here are my detailed results for perusal for anyone interested. PS. Mitt Romney's VP pick was a good one. Paulites however are (rightly) not convinced and I for one still favor Obama if with no particular enthusiasm. PPS. The real... Read More
I recently had the dubious pleasure of engaging in an extended Twitter exchange with Peter Savodnik. Peter is a consummately credentialed journalist based in New York. He is also a classical representative of the well-paid prostitute class otherwise known as Independent Western Journalists in polite (i.e. doublethink) society, as well as of that emigre clique... Read More
This may be the article I've hesitated longest over publishing. Its subject matter has always hovered as a specter over my writings on the close relation between human capital and economic growth; an obvious but studiously ignored presence*. I am talking, of course, about race and IQ. Of racial differences in IQ, to be precise.... Read More
Did you know that elections in Britain and the US are marred by mass fraud? At least that would be the inescapable conclusion if they were to be subjected to the most popular methods to "prove" that Russian elections are rigged in favor of Putin and United Russia. Below I have a translated a delightful... Read More
It's been a great year! To recap, in rough chronological order, 2011 saw: The most popular post (with 562 comments and counting; granted, most of them consisting of Indians and Pakistanis flaming each other); Visualizing the Kremlin Clans (joint project with Kevin Rothrock of A Good Treaty); my National Comparisons between life in Russia, Britain,... Read More
At least, surely more so than Obama, winner of 2009's Nobel Peace Prize. Let's do it by the numbers. Russia under Putin fought one war, in response to Georgian aggression against Ossetians with Russian citizenship and UN-mandated Russian peacekeepers. In contrast, Obama has participated in two wars of aggression: the Iraq War he inherited from... Read More
And ironically, despite my blog's focus, to date my US predictions have been more accurate than my Russian ones. Obama to become President? Check. Republicans to win 2010 mid-terms? Check. The emergence of "a new party, a new politics", with "the feds [facing] challenges from the far-left and the far-right"? Check (Tea Party, Occupy Wall... Read More
Two weeks ago, I received a Facebook message from Kim Zigfeld, she of the infamous La Russophobe, asking me if I was interested in an interview with her. It didn't take long for me to come to the wrong decision! And so commenced our interview. It was a long grind. After ceaseless goings back and... Read More
A year ago I predicted that there will be a "decoupling from the unwinding", as "emerging markets" by and large ride out the temporary shocks of declining Western demand for their exports (China) and the interruption of Western credit intermediation (Russia) before resuming growth. This is one aspect of the trends leading to the imminent... Read More
I would like to wish all Sublime Oblivion readers a very happy and successful New Year. One of my major motivations for writing is getting comments and feedback, so please continue - the more you inflate my ego, the more time I will feel compelled to spend on the blog. ;) All in all, 2009... Read More
Every once in a while, there occurs a major shift in the international arena. The First World War and its consequences were the seminal change of the last century, collapsing ancient empires and ushering in a new era of ethno-nationalist clashes, political radicalism and emerging powers challenging the established order of Versailles, forces that were... Read More
This is my first follow-up post to The Belief Matrix, in which I attempted to advance a universal model for civilizational responses to subsistence crises (The Malthusian Loop) and the Western challenge (The Sisyphean Loop). The first country I'll apply this too is the US, because doing so will allow me to make several important... Read More
Whispers of war are heard in the Caucasus, as the anniversary of last year's South Ossetian War approaches. Will the guns of August be fired in anger to mark the occasion? Here are some things we need to keep in mind when analyzing this: It was Georgia that attacked South Ossetia last year, mere hours... Read More
With the recent election of the controversial (to put it mildly) Ahmadinejad to the Iranian Presidency, it is time to look at what this portends for the future of Iran and the Middle East region in general. The first question we need to ask is whether Ahmadinejad's victory was free and fair. Stratfor believes it... Read More
At the recent Summit of the Americas in Trinidad, two great leaders, Obama and Chavez, shook hands in what could be the symbolic first gesture of reconciliation. Treasonous neocons will no doubt rush to condemn this as yet another limp-wristed and unilateral concession to "America's enemies", reminding their listeners that Chavez closed down opposition media,... Read More
Debunking Russophobic drivel is somewhat akin to grenade fishing - so damn easy that you almost feel a bit guilty for stooping to such a level and wasting your time. But that's what makes it really fun. So although Fedia Kriukov, Eugene Ivanov, Eric Kraus and the folks over at Russia: Other Points of View... Read More
Inspired in no small part by the political charade over the bail-outs and boondoggles that plague the TV screens and electronic ether, I've compiled a top 10 list of ways in which the US increasingly resembles the collapsing Soviet Union for your information / despair / entertainment / Schadenfreude / ridicule / etc. A list... Read More
Again, a very happy and successful New Year to Sublime Oblivion readers. It has certainly been a successful year for this blog, founded as Da Russophile on Jan 9th 2008. The original site at blogger has nearly 16,000 visitors, while Sublime Oblivion has been graced by nearly 2000 from the date of its inception on... Read More
As I predicted he would, Obama has won overwhelmingly. As I argued, this was the best possible outcome for America - Obama understands the importance of investing heavily in renewable energy and new infrastructure, and would withdraw from the financially ruinous Iraq adventure. Just by his election, he has bolstered America's battered image around the... Read More
Watching the US presidential candidate debate this Friday has only further confirmed my belief an American would have to be either a moron or a traitor to vote for him. What he would do as President: 1) Stay on in Iraq And leave Russia (and every other competitor) a free hand. Even the success of... Read More
Read these two posts by Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal, here and here. 1. A looming recession, after seven years of stagnation in the US median wage, means that the likelihood of positive income growth this year is very small. Even assuming it's 0% would mean that the incumbent party's nominee, McCain, can be... Read More
These are the results of our first poll (running from January 11 to March 19). I am pleased to see that the number of people thinking it's brilliant decisively outnumber those who think it should be deleted. (So I'll remain on the blogosphere.) Otherwise, don't bother with digressions, aesthetics or more features, but concentrate more... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.