Emmanuel Macron, who said that terrorism will be part of our daily lives for years to come (echoing London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s sentiment that this is just “part and parcel of” life in a major city), got a stunning 34.8%.
It also hosts the Bataclan theater, the site of the worst terrorist attack in Western Europe in the past decade.
It’s time to take the #blackpill on France. Le Pen isn’t going to win, or even come close.
Not unless there’s a dirty nuke attack in the center of Paris, and as per above, I’m not even sure that would do the trick!
There was a hope, one which I subscribed to, that the polls were understating her support, due to the Front National’s lack of respectability and the hostile media climate. We saw it with Brexit. We saw it with Trump. But France refused to complete the trifecta.
The French pollsters, apparently, were better than their Anglo-Saxon counterparts (or luckier), and if anything, somewhat overestimated Le Pen’s popularity.
|Liste des candidats||Voix||% Inscrits||% Exprimés|
|M. Emmanuel MACRON||8 657 326||18,19||24,01|
|Mme Marine LE PEN||7 679 493||16,14||21,30|
|M. François FILLON||7 213 797||15,16||20,01|
|M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON||7 060 885||14,84||19,58|
|M. Benoît HAMON||2 291 565||4,82||6,36|
|M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN||1 695 186||3,56||4,70|
|M. Jean LASSALLE||435 365||0,91||1,21|
|M. Philippe POUTOU||394 582||0,83||1,09|
|M. François ASSELINEAU||332 588||0,70||0,92|
|Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD||232 428||0,49||0,64|
|M. Jacques CHEMINADE||65 598||0,14||0,18|
Her final result of 21.3% was considerably below the ~24% average of the nearly one hundred polls one month prior to the election.
As such, we cannot hope for the polls to be cardinally wrong, and there are looking very, very bad for /ourgal/.
Direct polls of her performanc e against Macron show a consistent lead for him of 20% points.
Likewise, simple arithmetic models of second-choice preferences applied to the electorates of the knocked out candidates also suggest that she will lose by at least 20% points.
Even most of Fillon’s voters will go with Macron, especially after his endorsemenet of the Establishment candidate. Melenchon refused to endorse either, but the polls suggest his voters will overwhelmingly go with Macron as well.
There’s no much hope from other quarters, either. Dupont-Aignan is a solid Gaullist, but even his base are split on Le Pen. Most of the rest are Communists and anarchists of various hues who are going to vote for Macron the Outsider.
Turnout was already high, at 78%, and cannot be increased much further.
My back of the envelope – well, jotted down on Excel – calculations suggest that if the electorate voters as in the first chart above and the rest splits 50/50 between Macron and Le Pen – the latter, an assumption highly favorable to Le Pen – Macron will still win by 63% to 37%.
This is due to the fundamental differences between the French and American political systems.
If the US was a multiparty democracy, then somebody like Trump representing the nationalist part of the political spectrum would also have gotten 25% of the vote, with the constitunet elements of the Republican party splintering between religious conservatives like Cruz (Fillon) and financiers (Jeb!/Rubio), and with Hillary Clinton proceeding to wreck him in the runoffs. It was ironically by dint of its electoral system, long considered by observers as being very much resistant to populists from one extreme of the political spectrum or another, that someone like Trump could come to power by dint of Republican party loyalty. (Of course, Trump’s subsequent moderation/neoconization – cross out as per your own ideological preferences – might yet prove that said observers were right after all).
In France, it is basically Gallic Jeb! – successfully portrayed by the “free and impartial Western press” as an outsider, despite him having served as a Minister in Hollande’s government, worked at a Rothschild bank, and attended Bilderberger conferences – with the support of both Hillary Clinton, Cruz, many of Bernie’s voters (if not the man himself), and the entirety of the international globalist cabal against the true political outsider, Le Pen.
As regardless the future of nationalism in France, and indeed of the French nation, I suppose the only realistic way forwards is to focus on widening the Front National’s reach so as to prepare the way for a more effective challenge in 2022. For the first time, nationalist forces are now outright winning many regions, and ironically, the Bilderbergers’ anointment of Macron as their representative in France has redefined the political struggle to be more in line with Marine Le Pen’s own formulation: “There is no left or right, only nationalists and globalists.”
Though in net terms, this is still a disaster. Especially jarring is the apparent obliviousness of both the affluent, well-educated French elites in places like Paris, and the as yet non-enriched majority French areas in places like Britanny, that overwhelmingly vote against Le Pen and their own demographic dispossession.
As always, the race is between uncuckening and demographics; between White-World Supremacy Conservation…
… and the Rising Tide of Color.
France might only have a couple more electoral cycles to start reversing things before its submersion into Sub-Saharan Africa becomes irreversible.