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economist-usa-mass-shootings

SourceThe Economist

Not only has there been an increasing incidence of rampages in the US in the past thirty years but it seems that average kill scores have been ramping up.

I think this trend will only intensify in the years ahead.

A couple of years ago there was a lot of agitation around TrackingPoint, a weapons company that coupled a gun with a tracking system. All you had to do was tag your target, press the trigger, and align the reticle with the tag, which would automatically fire the shot while making adjustments for range, wind conditions, your own motion, etc. Accuracy far exceeds what even the best marksmen are capable of with a traditional rifle and scope outfit. You can also shoot around corners and barricades with special eyeglasses (this was once an exclusively military technology which has now made its way into the civilian market).

Now TrackingPoint’s products aren’t really the sort of weapons you can do a productive rampage with – crucially, it is single shot, and extremely expensive ($20,000) to boot. But it should soon be possible to create far more effective solutions. For instance, a standalone mod that contains a database of common gun models (and maybe the option to input custom data) that you can strap onto any old AK. An accomplice can tag targets remotely through a connected smartphone, or even automate the process entirely on the basis of face recognition. Think of the kind of head shot percentages you can achieve.

Even more creative solutions can be thought up. Just the sort of stuff you can do by coupling this with drones can provide material for countless cyberpunk stories.

Once you have a certain penetration rate of such technologies and a high enough percentage of mentally ill, highly aggrieved, and/or high risk ethnoreligious groups in your society, I suspect draconian gun control will become all but inevitable – even in a society as traditionally liberal on this question as the US.

 
• Category: Miscellaneous • Tags: Futurism, Guns, Terrorism 
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Scott Alexander has a long article with a lot of graphs about to what extent the high US homicide rate relative to other First World countries could be explained by its liberal gun laws.

I have a much shorter article with what are perhaps two of the most relevant graphs.

guns-and-gun-murder-rates-us

Guns vs. Gun Murder Rates in the US states.

blacks-and-gun-murder-rates-us

Blacks vs. Gun Murder Rates in the US states.

I have excluded Washington D.C., an extreme outlier with the highest percentage of Blacks (50.7%), the most gun related murders (16.5/100,000), and the lowest rate of official gun ownership (3.6%).

Feel free to draw your own conclusions.

I do think its reasonable to argue that at some very low level of gun ownership you will begin to see substantial decreases in the homicide rate relative to what it would otherwise be if only because it is true that having a gun makes killing someone quite a lot easier. But to see that you will need to see draconian restrictions of the sort you have in Japan or the United Kingdom, where it is next to impossible for a normal civilian to acquire firearms of any sort.

***

Gun Ownership Murders/100k Gun Murders/100k Blacks(%)
Alabama 51.70% 4.2 2.8 26.38%
Alaska 57.80% 4.4 2.7 4.27%
Arizona 31.10% 5.5 3.6 4.16%
Arkansas 55.30% 4.5 3.2 15.76%
California 21.30% 4.9 3.4 6.67%
Colorado 34.70% 2.3 1.3 4.28%
Connecticut 16.70% 3.7 2.7 10.34%
Delaware 25.50% 5.3 4.2 20.95%
Florida 24.50% 5 3.9 15.91%
Georgia 40.30% 5.3 3.8 30.02%
Hawaii 6.70% 1.8 0.5 3.08%
Idaho 55.30% 1.3 0.8 0.95%
Illinois 20.20% 3.5 2.8 14.88%
Indiana 39.10% 3.1 2.2 9.07%
Iowa 42.90% 1.2 0.7 2.68%
Kansas 42.10% 3.5 2.2 6.15%
Kentucky 47.70% 4.5 2.7 7.71%
Louisiana 44.10% 9.6 7.7 31.98%
Maine 40.50% 1.8 0.8 1.03%
Maryland 21.30% 7.3 5.1 29.44%
Massachusetts 12.60% 3.2 1.8 7.02%
Michigan 38.40% 5.6 4.2 14.24%
Minnesota 41.70% 1.7 1 4.57%
Mississippi 55.30% 5.6 4 37.30%
Missouri 41.70% 7 5.4 11.49%
Montana 57.70% 2.1 1.2 0.67%
Nebraska 38.60% 2.8 1.8 4.50%
Nevada 33.80% 5.9 3.1 8.10%
New Hampshire 30.00% 1 0.4 1.22%
New Jersey 12.30% 4.1 2.8 14.46%
New Mexico 34.80% 5.7 3.3 2.97%
New York 18% 4.4 2.7 15.18%
North Carolina 41.30% 4.7 3 21.60%
North Dakota 50.70% 1.3 0.6 1.08%
Ohio 32.40% 4 2.7 12.04%
Oklahoma 42.90% 5 3 7.96%
Oregon 39.80% 2 0.9 2.01%
Pennsylvania 34.70% 5.1 3.6 10.79%
Rhode Island 12.80% 2.8 1.5 6.36%
South Carolina 42.30% 6.1 4.5 28.48%
South Dakota 56.60% 1.7 1 1.14%
Tennessee 43.90% 5.6 3.5 16.78%
Texas 35.90% 5 3.2 11.91%
Utah 43.90% 1.9 0.8 1.27%
Vermont 42.00% 1.1 0.3 0.87%
Virginia 35.10% 4.6 3.1 19.91%
Washington 33.10% 2.2 1.4 3.74%
West Virginia 55.40% 3 1.5 3.58%
Wisconsin 44.40% 2.7 1.7 6.07%
Wyoming 59.70% 1.4 0.9 1.29%
District of Columbia 3.60% 21.8 16.5 50.7%
 
• Tags: Crime, Guns 
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.