Now that the midterms have panned out as the predictions market expected, here’s what we can now expect:
1. It was mostly GOPe cucks getting slaughtered, not Trumpist nationalists (e.g. Steve King stayed, though on a razor thin margin). At least this means that nationalism has real staying power.
2. Cabinet picks and SCOTUS nominations will now glide through.
3. May finally put these Based Black Guy/#Blexit fantasies to rest. (Just kidding).
1. Legislative gridlock means no immigration reform (GOP having spent their political capital on tax cuts and Obamacare).
2. I assume the Wall is dead. (Sure, it’s not that relevant, but its symbolically powerful).
3. More censorship (obv. no regulating Twitter like a utility now).
4. Endless Trump investigations as House gains subpoena powers.
5. Neocons may end up going off the reservation, bolstered by the CIA Democrats and an increasingly cornered Trump.
One more good thing is that the administration’s cold war on Iran and China will continue.
Many ordinary Chinese may gloat over GOP’s loss of control of the US House, but scholars and officials I know have been very cautious. They worry that once Trump's agenda is tied up in the US, he might become more radical on the international arena, which will affect China.
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) November 7, 2018
Indeed, it’s worth noting that many of the newly elected Democrats are well on board with the trade war on China.
This means that Russia is not going to be too isolated (stand together or fall separately) when US sanctions on Russia will be ramped up closer to the extreme levels provided for in already existing legislation.
I have always been skeptical about Europe and now there are even more reasons for that.
SWIFT kicked out Iranian banks on Nov 5, when the US sanctions went into effect. All that the EU managed in response was to mutter that it was “regrettable”, dousing any faint hopes that its willingness to resist US demands is more than just rhetorical. But what can you really expect when the US is the heart of a globe-spanning empire that can directly threaten European central bankers with prison for helping Iran avoid sanctions (as suggested in Soros-financed Project Syndicate, not on some marginal “conspiracy” site).
While I’m aware that you can’t judge Presidential elections on midterms results – after all, the GOP lost big in 1982, but Reagan won in a landslide two years later – it’s hard to be optimistic.
There are incipient signs of recession, which I think will begin at least months before the 2020 elections. (JPMorgan agrees).
That will cancel Trump’s advantage of incumbency.
Meanwhile, this will be after two years of House-initiated investigations, Trump’s senility will be even more obvious, there’s be more minorities, the Florida felons will be voting, and Trump’s nationalist base will be even more demoralized with no wall and no immigration reform in sight. And this is also not taking into account the risk of a neocon war or two.
I suspect almost anyone will beat Trump in 2020, short of the Dems wheeling out Hillary’s husk or an outright white genocide proponent.