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AoMI III: The Geopolitics of the Age of Malthusian Industrialism
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This is the third in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism.

In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world’s remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity’s capacity for collective problem solving, such as genetic IQ augmentation or machine superintelligence). In the meantime, due to fertility preferences being heritable and ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian world, populations will explode, as the world enters an epochal baby boom not long after 2100. This renewed demographic expansion will last until the world hits the carrying capacity of the late industrial economy, which will usher in the Age of Malthusian Industrialism.

Part 1Part 2Part 3Part 4


As we have established, in the “business as normal” scenario – no singularity, no catastrophe – the world’s population will start to diverge from UN projections of leveling populations by the end of the century, as r-selected breeders come to constitute an increasing proportion after population. After reaching a minimum sometime between 2050 and 2100, the rate of world population growth will stabilize and then begin to incline back upwards. This will foreshadow the epochal baby boom that will start drive the world population to the carrying capacity of the industrial economy in the two or three centuries after 2100.

Source: Lyman Stone

This acceleration will be noticed first, and remain most pronounced – at least in relative terms – amongst already highly fertile tribes, such as the Amish, the Haredi Jews, and possibly the Mormons. They will become even more fertile and will see their numbers multiply fastest. However, their very low initial base precludes them from ever accounting for a substantial percentage of the world population, and this goes double for any of the marginal religious breeder sects.

World Jewry will be increasingly defined by high fecundity, religiosity, and the lack of superlative intellectual achievement. Due to their low fertility, high rates of assimilation, and declining rates of boil-off from the religious Jews, secular Jewry will be in terminal decline (thus fulfilling “True Torah” commenter Greasy William’s predictions on this blog). Other high IQ “service” minorities, such as the Kulin Brahmins, the Bombay Parsis, and the Tamil Nadu Brahmins, will also slide towards extinction.

However, in absolute terms, the Breeders’ Revenge will be most evident in the differential trajectories of the world’s great nations. Presumably, countries that for a variety of historical reasons are already seeing an accumulation of breeders – France, the Low Countries, the Anglo-Saxon world – will maintain or further expand their lead this century, as breeders go from being a marginal to a significant percentage of their population during this century. Ironically, the French may eventually return to their status as Europe’s single most populous ethnicity, which they enjoyed from Late Antiquity to the Napoleonic Wars, vying with the Great Russians for that position. This may be less evident in countries that transitioned later, such as Germany, Japan, Korea, and Eastern Europe, where breeders will merely go from a miniscule to a marginal share of the population. The effect will be smaller still in China, though its massive existing lead will still keep it top of the population charts along with India. While India’s population is slated to overtake China’s in the 2020’s, there is a chance that China could claw back its lead in the 22nd century by dint of its earlier demographic transition.

Still, these are all speculations; it would be nice to have more concrete data about how this would look like. Somebody should really do a GWAS for fertility preferences before the idiocracy takes over.

***

I pointed out in Superpower Demographics that increasing your TFR is basically a cheat code for massively augmenting your national power over a few generations:

“For instance, assume the Poles decided to become really stronk, and raised their TFR to 4 children per woman with immediate effect. They’d approach Russia’s current population by 2100. Poland’s historical security problems with respect to their western and eastern neighbors would be definitively solved.”

Well, in the world of the Breeders’ Revenge, this is sort of going to be happening by default, even if Poland is unlikely to be one of the countries to initially benefit, given its relatively late fertility transition.

Of course we can only speculate about the geopolitics of this future world.

Perhaps the “New Caesars” like God-Emperor Trump, Emperor Xi, Putler, Caesar Salvini, etc. will bring back the mega-empires.

Crazy pro-imperialist meme: “Death to Bacteria – Glory to Empire! Let parasites have nightmares about the German-Russian border!”

However, as I pointed out in A World of 1,000 Nations, the trend towards national fragmentation seems to be much stronger.

After all, it is the mega-empires that have been breaking apart for the past century.

However, a nationally fragmented world will also likely be a more globalist-cosmopolitan world, since small statelets will have much less scope to provide alternatives to global institutions or host an economic base capable of sustaining autarky.

In any case, I am not going to speculate at length on which of these two alternatives are likelier. I will save that for the book.

But FWIW, my instinct is that reality will hew closer to the first scenario. The current populist wave buffeting the world only barely conceals the more elementary fact that the world has become a great deal more globalized, liberal, and culturally homogenized over the past century, and especially since the end of the Cold War. There is no good reason for that macro-trend to come to a stop, and it shows no signs of doing so.

***

Still, so far as our scenario plays out, the precise geopolitical configurations are important mainly in terms of the precise conditions on which the next stage of the Breeders’ Revenge will play out – the return of the Malthusian meat-grinder. Once booming populations reach the carrying capacity of the modern industrial economy – of the individual statelets, the current nation-states, the mega-empires, and/or of the world system at large – the Idiocracy will start giving way to renewed Malthusian selection for thrift and intelligence. The Frito Effect will give way to a renewed Flynn Effect: “A few more centuries of the most intelligent and hard-working having more surviving grandchildren, and we will be back to where we are now today, capable of having a second stab at solving the intelligence problem but able to draw from a vastly bigger population for the task.

If we are talking of nations or mega-empires with (largely) closed borders, then the first ones to experience a reversal of the dysgenic trend will be those that were first to reach their carrying capacity – and put their excess humanity to the grindstone of Social Darwinism, as opposed to overspilling it onto their neighbors. The first major civilizations to transition into breeder mode will be Europeans and White Americans, who still (mostly) have a considerable surfeit of land; global warming may augment their fortunes further, leaving Canada, Alaska, and Scandinavia open to extensive colonization. China has much less ecological headroom, but it will also lag in the fertility transition – Western Europe’s population may well level with it by the 22nd century. India’s situation is the most precarious, but it will also have a very late breeder transition, which will give it breathing room. Conversely, Russia – whose territory can probably support at least a billion people even today, and multiple billions with global warming – might also be come later to the breeder transition than most of the rest of Europe. Assuming Russia doesn’t coalesce into the general European space, it will be one of the last major regions of the world to maintain per capita land surpluses, allowing it to get rich off food exports. However, it might also mean that it will slide into idiocracy mode deeper and longer than civilizations that bump into the Malthusian limits before it does.

Conversely, a more globalist system with open borders – based on a multiplicity of weak small states, One World Government, or a combination of both – would involve the Malthusian transition taking place at more or less the same time everywhere.

One major lingering question is what precisely the global carrying capacity of the modern industrial economy would be, assuming a peak in technology in the next few decades. This will be addressed in the next post on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism.

 
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  1. Kyle'n says:

    I have a much darker vision of the future. With declining IQs, it will become impossible to support industrial civilization, and there will be a grinding reversion to something closer to preindustrial norms, analogous to what happened in Rhodesia and parts of the Congo.

    There is no guarantee that this places eugenic selection pressures on the population. We’ve thrown a bunch of potential spanners into the works that make the environment different from what selected for European and East Asian high IQ. Most prominently, we have taken diseases from every corner of the world and spread them everywhere. The story of the decline of European civilization during and after the fall of Rome is in large part a story about disease – large scale organization became much less practical when disease would ravage large concentrations of people. We’ve created a much more punishing set of circumstances in that regard for our descendants to work through.

    Secondly, we’ve introduced admixture from lower-performing populations. The rise of East Asian and European civilization was gradual, slow, precarious. Large scale admixture with populations that did not undergo analogous selection shoves the progress of many centuries back an unknown but probably large amount.

    Dysgenic selection is an analogous problem – it’s not clear how many generations will tick before the collapse, but it’s probably dozens. Once again, this reverses centuries of progress that is not guaranteed to be restored.

    We exist in a warm window in the midst of an ice age – a brief period in which the carrying capacity of Earth spikes way above the trend. In a few thousand years, the local norm could re-assert itself, and humanity would be driven back to small enclaves, with new and very unfriendly neighbors following it back – every microbe from every corner of the world that has developed a taste for human. Survival is not guaranteed.

    In this set of circumstances the primary goal should be to create an independent group that pushes forward eugenics and high fertility, somewhere relatively isolated. Minimum viable size is probably a few thousand people. It’s doable – but probably won’t be done.

  2. @Kyle'n

    My guesstimate is that during the transition to Malthusian Industrialism, world IQs will fall by around a standard deviation.

    (After that, they will stop falling, and indeed start to rise again, as Clark-Unz selection starts up again).

    Conveniently, that will result in a world just about competent enough to maintain early 20th century technological levels, but not to expand them much further.

    95+ IQ countries = Responsible for 95+ of scientific development
    85 IQ countries = Latin America; can maintain pretty modern societies – read every third Fred Reed article – but don’t have much innovation
    70 IQ countries = Sub-Saharan Africa before Flynn; sure, it will regress if left to its own devices. But I don’t think we’ll plummet that far.

    * Further expounding on the 1 S.D. IQ differences needed to invent vs. understand (and consequently, be able to maintain) a technology: https://akarlin.com/projects/apollos-ascent/

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Abelard Lindsey
    , @Mr. XYZ
    , @hgw
  3. lauris71 says:

    History shows us that eugenic selection for higher IQ is not universal in Mathusian environment. Otherwise we should have seen almost all population in the World converging to European/East Asian levels.
    Certain societal organization seems to be needed for the potential to be realized and it is hard to tell what will the situation be in future.

  4. The Scalpel says: • Website

    With decreased “natural” fertility, selective human breeding (slanted toward employed, intelligent breeders) fostered by government subsidies will alter things in a way your predictions cannot account for.

  5. The separatist movements map is kinda funny. Some of those are quite serious indeed, many even with recent history of violence, but some are distinctly jokes. On Swedish territory, said map shows four possible “entities”:
    Sweden proper in maroon, roughly corresponding to the historical Svealand.

    Scania in mustard, roughly corresponding to territory that has changed hands between Denmark and Sweden multiple times, and which hosted an angry pro-Danish guerilla movement
    centuries ago. Now completely dead (in fact, today this “separatism” is mostly manifested as a tongue-in-cheek thing by Swedes not living there, e.g. “gräv bort Skåne”, in response to the ghettofication of Malmö).

    Jämtland, in yellow. An old joke movement, ” Republiken Jämtland” – has its own flag, capital and president, a comedy singer-songwriter dude.

    …and finally, Sápmi, the area of the Saami folks that spans across Norway, Sweden and Finland (and there are a few thousand of them living in Murmansk oblast too). That has a historically valid component to it, as well as ethnically and linguistically. Only issue is that they are vastly outnumbered in all areas by the southern invaders, and would instantly give up their (pseudo-)traditional lives and move south if the support and subsidies from their overlords dried up.

    • Replies: @WHAT
  6. songbird says:
    @lauris71

    That’s a very relevant question: what explains the ave. low human capital of India? Is it castes or something else? How do we avoid it?

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @Dmitry
    , @Anonymous
  7. @lauris71

    I think all you need a centralized and stable government with stable property rights and Malthusian selection to select for roughly 100 IQ or possibly higher. I’m not sure if the selection would go on indefinitely under such circumstances even if some miracle prevented technological progress. The costs of higher IQ must be increasing.

  8. anonymous[235] • Disclaimer says:

    Maybe I didn’t read it closely enough but this was by far the most incoherent post I’ve read from Karlin.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  9. @anonymous

    Hard drugs never made anybody more clear 🙂

  10. Bonner Tal says: • Website

    I think embryo selection and modification is too close for your scenario to come to pass. At the latest, when whole scientific and technological endeavours come to a grinding halt, the ROI of embryo selection or other eugenic measures will be become extremely clear.

    Why do you think that the intellectual achievements of Jews will nosedive? Aren’t the Haredi Ashkenazim?

    Also, massive overpopulation without lot’s and lot’s of wars?

  11. @lauris71

    Most areas on this globe select for disease resistance instead. If disease kills you long before hunger would, you don’t get malthusian conditions.

  12. Tyrion 2 says:
    @Bonner Tal

    Why do you think that the intellectual achievements of Jews will nosedive? Aren’t the Haredi Ashkenazim?

    In theory, the Haredi are really smart. In reality, the men study Torah all day so the sky doesn’t fall on everyone’s heads.

    Cognitive processing power isn’t everything.

  13. @Anatoly Karlin

    I agree and will add that with increasing automation, it will be easier for a relatively small number of higher IQ people to maintain the technological infrastructure, particularly if they are well-paid in comparison to the rest of the population.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @songbird
  14. @Bonner Tal

    I agree that genetic IQ augmentation is more likely to happen than not.

    This whole Age of Malthusian Industrialism concept is an exploration of what will happen if it doesn’t happen.

  15. Dmitry says:
    @Bonner Tal

    intellectual achievements … Aren’t the Haredi Ashkenazim?

    They are including multiple different races today, which you can see when you walk in Bnei Brak in Israel.

    Some are brown and some are light (Ashkenazim primarily the lighter ones). However, the proportions are not that clear there (looking in the street, maybe it is half are light and half of them are dark, some even looking like Indians).

    Haredi Jews are usually not intelligent in our sense, because they have a religious education. On the other hand, they might be selecting between themselves for some preconditions for academic study, such as a long attention span required for study of religious texts

    The more boring and useless religious texts they have to study to qualify in their religious college (and be considered prestigious to have a large family, etc), the more they might be selecting for attention span preconditions (if these exist). And attention span is perhaps also the most important thing to be academically successful in the modern secular university.

    It’s not impossible to imagine, some secular descendants of them, who are removed from their society, could become useful scholars, inheriting a personality with inclination to a longer attention span that was selected by useless religious study. In 20th century, Grothendieck was some descendant of a Hasidic Jew.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  16. @Bonner Tal

    Iterative embryo selection and whole chromosome fabrication are the two foreseeable methods for IQ enhancement. Both of them are probably 20 years away from reality and will require significant money to develop. The reason for this is that 500-1000 genes are involved in cognitive ability, placing it well beyond the capabilities of current CRISPR techniques. Whole chromosome synthesis is more likely to be developed because there are profitable applications every step of the way, whereas there is not for iterative embryo selection.

    In any case, I look forward to reading Karlin’s book. I’m sure it will make a very strong case in favor of enhancement of cognitive ability (and executive function). A future Earth of a 100 billion “people of Walmart” types does not make for a pleasant thought.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  17. @Dmitry

    I recall some fundamentalist Jewish school for girls in London getting penalized because their students denied evolution on their Biology GCSE exams or something like that, obviously getting zero marks for that question.

    What I found remarkable, though – and very telling – was a small note towards the end of the article. It said that the school performed well above average for the country.

    Which is rather remarkable, considering that a large part of their students basically lost 5-10% of possible marks by default, and yet were sufficiently competent to more than compensate for that.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Mr. XYZ
    , @reiner Tor
  18. songbird says:
    @Abelard Lindsey

    We may not need the same infrastructure. Flying delivery drones would mean roads aren’t as necessary. Same thing with distributed communication and power networks.

    Technology is a real wildcard when it comes to preventing the collapse of society. There’s almost no problem that it can’t address. All sorts of things can be made to stop working if a thief steals them. Even somewhat low tech things are very useful and might have changed the ancient word dramatically had they been around – barbed wire, bicycles, the radio.

    There are almost endless permutations to consider, just with existing tech. Like IQ tests. You could use them to breed for intelligence, without any kind of genetic engineering.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  19. Tulip says:

    Nukes make global empire hard, although who knows the state of technology by the 22nd century. We haven’t seen a world war since 1945, and if we did, we would enter the age of Malthusian selection a lot quicker than in your scenario.

  20. Mr. XYZ says:
    @songbird

    Environmental factors might explain for some of this. Davide Piffer’s research concluded that the genotypic average IQ of Indians should be in the low- or mid-90s. Anatoly Karlin previously did some speculation of his own and reached similar conclusions.

  21. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Bonner Tal

    Why do you think that the intellectual achievements of Jews will nosedive? Aren’t the Haredi Ashkenazim?

    We don’t know if Haredi Ashkenazi Jews have the same potential as non-Haredi Ashkenazi Jews have. Also, there is a wide span of mental abilities among any ethnic group. After all, even Blacks have their smart fractions and even Ashkenazi Jews have their dull fractions.

  22. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    In London though, it will be white (or mainly whiter – as they also have some kind of brown ones from Yemen) Haredi Jews.

    In Israel, Haredi Jews look like mix of different races (white and brown), so they will be perhaps less competitive.

    There is maybe interesting about them, in the question about how to select people for attention span.

    The more boring and useless the material which a person has to study, the more it requires and might select for attention span.

    Personally, I have a very bad attention span and lack of strength of will, and only study material if I say it is useful to myself, or a way to procrastinate from more important tasks.

    On the other hand, Haredi Jew, are selecting for their ability to study useless information, which is where strength of will is actually required to maintain the span of attention.

    I doubt Israel is eugenic for this however, as even the “academic” failures of the Haredi Jews there will still have many children and some kind of government subsidies.

    • Replies: @Gerard2
  23. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you have a link to this, please?

    Also, extremely off-topic, but I was wondering if you had a source for the historical literacy data for conscripts in the Imperial Russian military. Basically, I’d like to take a look at the direct source for this information (information which you previously cited, including on Twitter).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @utu
  24. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Do you think India will still appear so low human capital, after they industrialize (i.e. in 50 years in the future)?

    Currently India is still poorer in per capita GDP than Ukraine. They have some of the worst pollution in the world, and probably a high ratio of developmental disorders. Moreover, unlike a country like Ukraine which inherited the educational system and cultural capital of a superpower – Indians are living literally among shit and probably at the classroom at school there are several dozen Indian students for each half-educated teacher.

    However, are Indian children when raised in conditions of a developed country (or adopted by some wealthy white American family), famously stupid? I know question is a bit rhetorical, as there is probably not some study on this topic – but is there at least any folklore of this from families who adopted Indian orphans, etc?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Gerard2
    , @songbird
  25. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    I didn’t find for his story. But the youngest girl to go to Oxford University of England, is today some Haredi Jewess with 4 children in Jerusalem.

    But the story is a reversal. She must have an intense secular education to reach this level, and then afterwards joined the Haredi Jews.

    It’s impossible for children to have a fundamentalist religious education (without access to modern knowledge in their youth), to reach this level.

    Ironically, the reason for her success was the pressure from her father to study as a girl (the opposite of what Haredi Jews promote).

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3713768/Haunting-lesson-today-s-TV-child-geniuses-Ruth-Lawrence-Britain-s-famous-prodigy-tracked-father-drove-heard-troubling-tale.html

  26. Cicerone says:

    Very interesting read, as always.

    It got me thinking about more aspects:

    Firstly, the dysgenic trend across nations is not the same. There are no clear data on that, but one can derive a rough guess of the dysgenic trend by comparing fertility by education level. And more importantly, the degree of dsysgenics seems to be dependent on government policies. The Nordics with their comprehensive family policies suffer from little dysgenics among their native population. They simply provide the environment that makes highly educated women breed as well or even more so than their low educated co-ethnic brethen. Migrants obviously distort that picture, but in Sweden, third world migrants have less kids than in France, which follows a more “blind” pronatalist policy. By far the worst dysgenic trend, when judged by education level (has its shortcomings, I know!), can be observed in the Latin American countries. Their lower classes still have quite some kids, while their educated classes are as sterile as their counterparts in Spain or Portugal. Why? Because public services suck in these countries, and private schools, security and all other additional perks that ar eneeded to lead a first world lifestyle in Latin America cost a lot of money, meaning that even upper middle class families can’t afford to have a bunch of kids in such an environment.

    Consequentially, the geopolitics are dependent on that as well. While all countries will eventually feel the breeder rebound, different dysgenic trends will offer different options for different countries. A country with a low dysgenic trend and approaching its carrying capacity is smart enough to stay richer than the rest and will be able to buy necessary food and resources from more dumb nations. Or will be able to colonize/subdue them if it is ruthless enough. I guess, before an IQ 92 Denmark with 50 million inhabitants starves, it can just seize resources abroad, e.g. from an IQ 80 Brazil. Before we see the return of darwinism, we may see a return of colonialism.

  27. Dmitry says:
    @Cicerone

    Denmark with 50 million inhabitants starves

    Although, with how efficient is modern agriculture from the second half of the 20th century, I don’t think starving will ever be a likely Malthusian constraint in the future again (perhaps even not in Africa, even after possible ‘global warming’ there).

    • Replies: @Cicerone
    , @Romanian
  28. utu says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Do you have a link to this, please? – It might be this one. A bit different than AK’s recollection.

    http://www.eastlondonlines.co.uk/2014/12/the-stories-behind-yesodey-hatorah-hackneys-controversial-jewish-school/
    Alice Harrold reports on controversial Jewish school in Hackney which excludes topics from its curriculum which are “not in line with” the Orthodox ethos such as internet-use, the theory of evolution and sexual health and well-being.

    In 2007 YHSGS was top of the Department for Education’s school’s “value added” scoring system for pupil progress, beating 81 grammar schools, when pupils at the school were on average five terms ahead of 14-year-olds in the rest of the country in maths, English and science.

    In 2008 the school lost its ranking when nine students refused to sit a Key Stage Three English exam on Shakespeare’s “The Merchant of Venice”. Their scores of zero brought the school down 349 places from the previous year to 274th in Key Stage Three league tables.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  29. @Anatoly Karlin

    The Haredi don’t have the personality required for a more useful science due to the boiling off effect. The Orthodox and Hasidic Jews two hundred years ago were much more diverse personality-wise than the ones today, because those interested in the secular world boiled off. See Cochran and Harpending’s work on the Amish.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  30. Cicerone says:
    @Dmitry

    Which restraints are you thinking of?

  31. @Cicerone

    I guess, before an IQ 92 Denmark with 50 million inhabitants starves, it can just seize resources abroad, e.g. from an IQ 80 Brazil.

    It’s the ruling class that decides, and the ruling class of hypothetical idiots-with-baby-rabies Denmark will be descendants of smart people. The Danish counterparts of Ivanka Trump, Sophie Trudeau and Kate Middleton – educated women who want kids may be rare, but more than enough of them to marry into the elite and mother its next generation (who inherit both smarts and baby rabies). Such an elite can easily impose a contraception program on the idiot (thus easy to manipulate) masses rather than taking the risks of war. Pills and propaganda are cheaper to make than tanks. Heh, they can just recycle The Oatmeal comics (which will be public domain by then) for propaganda:

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Dmitry
  32. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What about countries that have a low average IQ to begin with and which have or will have dysgenic fertility? Those countries have much less hope than the White and East Asian countries, correct? (After all, while a country can survive an IQ drop from 100 to 85, it becomes much harder for a country to survive an IQ drop from 85 to 70.)

    Also, what’s interesting is that Jelte Wicherts and some other researchers have concluded that the previous SS African IQ studies were flawed and that SS Africa’s current real average IQ is around 81 or 82:

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0c14/de5a9f7de7f6e09d55752b4dc736026b3e61.pdf

    It does seem like more research is needed in regards to this, though. After all, if this is genuinely SS Africa’s real average IQ right now, and SS Africa’s average IQ is still being held back about a standard deviation by environmental factors, then this would suggest that SS Africa’s full potential in regards to its average IQ is at Greece’s level or even slightly higher than that–which I find very hard to believe given the extreme difficulties that US policymakers have faced in trying to close the huge 1 stdv White-Black achievement gap in the US. Specifically, I find it very hard to believe that, on average, Sub-Saharan Africa’s IQ ceiling is 10 or more points higher than that of African-Americans–especially considering that African-Americans have around 20% White ancestry while Sub-Saharan Africans have no or virtually no White ancestry.

  33. These are some wack predictions. Never heard (or thought) about this before. It certainly seems like more of a white pill. I will now go to sleep smiling at the thought of a skyrocketing White fertility rate while the rest of the world’s is collapsing. I have always found it remarkable how the White TFR has remained so stable, given the massive pressure to have no children. Look to Asia to see how low TFR’s are going to fall… India is already at replacement with its current poverty level.

    If only we weren’t inviting in the 3rd world…

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  34. @Bonner Tal

    Your comment is the silliest I’ve read all week. You don’t need hi-tech for eugenics. All you need is these simple three steps:

    a) No premarital sex.
    b) No divorce.
    c) No welfare.

    Humans are already wired for eugenics naturally. All you need to do is remove the perverse incentives for dysgenics.

  35. @Kyle'n

    I have a much darker vision of the future. With declining IQs, it will become impossible to support industrial civilization, and there will be a grinding reversion to something closer to preindustrial norms, analogous to what happened in Rhodesia and parts of the Congo.

    It’s not so dark if you’re Ted Kaczynski.

  36. Eric Kaufmann: Why the Religious Will Inherit the Earth

  37. Bliss says:
    @lauris71

    Otherwise we should have seen almost all population in the World converging to European/East Asian levels.

    Why the hell do you all keep flattering yourselves with this “European/East Asian levels” bullshit. How can you not know that European IQ lags significantly behind East Asian IQ?

    It makes more sense to say “European/Indochinese levels”, for Europe is closer to Indochina than to East Asia. Here, re-educate yourselves:

    https://brainstats.com/average-iq-by-country.html

    East Asian IQ:

    Hong Kong————108
    South Korea———-106
    China/Japan———-105
    Taiwan——————-104

    European IQ:

    Serbia———— —————————89
    Croatia/Bosnia/Albania————90
    Lithuania/Macedonia/Cyprus—-91
    Ireland/Greece—————————92
    Bulgaria————————————-93
    Romania————————————94
    Portugal————————————-95
    Slovenia/Slovakia/Moldova——-96
    Russia/Ukraine/Belarus———— 97
    Spain/France/Latvia——————98
    Germany/Poland/Sweden———-99
    UK/Norway/Austria——————-100
    Italy——————————————-102

    IQ of Indochina:

    Singapore————————108
    Vietnam—————————94
    Malaysia—————————92
    Thailand/Cambodia———91
    Laos———————————89
    Myanmar————————-87

    • Replies: @Bliss
    , @Hyperborean
    , @AP
    , @DFH
  38. Bliss says:
    @Bliss

    1. The highest European IQ (Italy) is lower than the lowest East Asian IQ (Taiwan).

    2. The IQ of 10 European nations is a full standard deviation lower than the IQ of Hong Kong and Singapore.

    3. All European nations, with the close exceptions of Italy, Iceland, Switzerland, are at least half a SD lower in IQ than Hong Kong and Singapore.

    4. Vietnam has a higher IQ than 10 European nations.

    5. Malaysia has a higher IQ than 7 European nations.

    6. Cambodia and Thailand have higher IQ than 4 European nations.

    And on top of that European IQ is declining:

    https://slate.com/technology/2018/09/iq-scores-going-down-research-flynn-effect.html

  39. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @songbird

    Indians have the same IQ as Africans basically. Much like Africans, they never had to face winter which would have killed off many of the lower IQ individuals.

    Their caste system is another contributor as smart genes never get mixed into lower castes. Instead they concentrate in the much smaller upper castes.

  40. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    Indians who come here and are raised in the west do well because they are of a high IQ caste.

    The majority of Indians are low IQ on par with Africa. If you think it is only the environment that is holding back Indians, why wouldn’t you think the same about Africans when they have a comparable IQ?

    What makes you think India will industrialize? Their largest cities will, the while of India will still remain as it is today.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  41. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @UrbaneFrancoOntarian

    Where do you get the idea that white TFR is stable? Most stats I see are of white people with very low TFR such as Italy, Germany, and Nordic countries.

    France may have a population boom, these will be Arabs and blacks.

  42. @Bliss

    Why the hell do you all keep flattering yourselves with this “European/East Asian levels” bullshit. How can you not know that European IQ lags significantly behind East Asian IQ?

    Can Afrotriumphalists like you and Okechukwuyusha be consistent regarding whether IQ measurements matter or not?

    It seems like you (plural) switch between whichever suits you best in the current argument.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  43. WHAT says:
    @Anonymous lurker

    In Russia, Ingria masturbators are consistently made fun of as well. Separatism on the Caucasus is a different beast.

  44. Bliss says:
    @Hyperborean

    We are hoisting you true believers with your own petards.

    When one is talking to irrational brainwashed fools, such as yourself, it is often effective to talk on their own terms. Why do you have a problem with that?

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  45. @Bliss

    I am not an IQ ‘true believer’, but even those who consider IQ to be sine qua non don’t generally dispute that East Asians score higher than Europeans.

    Sophistry works best on people who want to believe what you are saying. Opposing people aren’t likely to be receptive to ‘Gotcha!’ type arguments.

    But arguing that IQ doesn’t matter is also a double-edged sword as it can just as well be used to justify that negro culture and mentality is inferior, rather than blacks just having hit an biological barrier which they cannot do anything about.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  46. Ender says:

    [MORE]

    I AM SURE THAT A METH HEAD OR A HEROIN JUNKIE AS ITS PROPONENT WILL DO WONDERS FOR THE IMAGE OF THE ALTRIGHT, THIS AUTHOR IS A DISGUSTING POS, CONSIDERING THAT HE SAID THAT THE RIGHT WING NEEDS BETTER ROLE MODELS.

    AK: I missed where I said I identify with the Alt Right, let alone that I wish to be a “proponent” for it (thanks but no thanks).

  47. Ender says:

    [MORE]

    In fairness if you are a liberal in Eastern Europe, American culture looked at least OK until the late 90s, and the LGBT rights was really a marginal issue until the mid 2000s, and a majority of Americans opposed interracial marriage between Blacks and Whites into the mid-90s.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  48. Gerard2 says:
    @Dmitry

    One thing .India’s internal development won’t be sabotaged by is dickead fake-promoters of “democracy” from it’s wealthy diaspora abroad. They simply don’t produce the same type of liberast.

    Much of America’s foreign policys and political culture comes from lobbies for ethnic groups for the motherland they came from, all based on some bitter cretins angry about the dictator they were loyal to being kicked out- whilst mindlessly talking about wanting “democracy”, or some communist/western backed military leader battle or some religious issue.

    In India you have the caste system over numerous generations, religion , different ethnicities, breakup into India/Pakistan/Bangladesh…and a government that was socialist for decades Plenty there for Americanised Indians diaspora group abroad to try and want to get revenge for by using the US system….but fortunately they don’t play that game . The indian abroad , put him in India and he may very well be a snob to all these beggars and lepers in the streets or all those working hard in the countryside and factories…., but in America or anywhere he the west he won’t hear any of this slander against his countrymen ( partly explained because in the west they make think even an aristocratic Indian is poor anyway)

    probably a high ratio of developmental disorders.

    Some of these images /videos of the freak/abnormal people produced are more shocking than even those car-crash videos in Russia.

    Going back tot the initial point – the Indians abroad – they don’t in any way operate or think about the caste system once they live abroad ( Kenya,South Africa, Singapore all with millions of Indians didn’t think in caste-system terms for pretty much all the 120+ years they have been relocated there…. and don’t have any problem with the religion/ethnic disparities.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  49. @Ender

    Whether it is about feminism, the Ukraine, afrotriumphalism, or, in your case, social conservatism, repetition becomes boring after a point.

  50. Gerard2 says:

    Due to their low fertility, high rates of assimilation, and declining rates of boil-off from the religious Jews, secular Jewry will be in terminal decline (thus fulfilling “True Torah” commenter Greasy William’s predictions on this blog).

    This simply is not likely to turn out this way. Centuries in Russia + the Soviet time (i.e high rates of intermarriage), 130 years in the UK and US of those very things you mention….and were still left with Harvey Weinstein and Woody Allen at the top of the discussion in this sexual harassment story.

    [MORE]

    You may think that the stereotype of the “ugly jew” may disappear – but this was always likely to be diluted by the influx of Middle Eastern people into the west…who look pretty much the same ( no matter how inaccurate that caricature of jewish appearance is) and is why it’as almost certain that in a film about Islamic terrorists, the terrorist will be played by a jewish guy (because the Muslim guy will be ridiculed by his people)

    One thing Russia is lucky to have is that the pro-Russia jews are all relatively normal or presentable or talented …whilst the anti-Russia jews are vile ugly excrement( can I count Ioffe as American?)

    Solovyov went from being a fat libtard…into a trim, patriotic workoholic who dresses like an Indian, the beautiful Mara Sittel, the great Evgeny Primakov and numerous others in different fields

    …on the anti-Russian side you have the ugly and or snakish, deranged freaks like Venediktov, Novodvorskaya,Albats,Bershidsky, infamous 90’s Oligarchs and so on.
    But the point is in Russia, more than a century of intermarriage and desecularisation in Soviet time but there is still a strong jewish identity that either they have or is strongly shown to observers…..likewise in America. This is obvious in New York, where everything and everyone mixed but “jewish” identity is still very strong.

  51. Gerard2 says:
    @Dmitry

    On the other hand, Haredi Jew, are selecting for their ability to study useless information, which is where strength of will is actually required to maintain the span of attention.

    Interesting had no idea about that

  52. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    It’s hard for me to believe India’s ceiling on average IQ is the same as black Americans’. I think there may be a lot of confounding factors, like imagine if you had to take a test when it was 100 deg. F – I don’t think I would score as well, and other markers of development might be similarly effected.

    But still, I think there is some sort of weird dynamic going on in India, that the castes have different ceilings, and whether that purely represents endogamy or might involve other factors like selection for a caste-environment seems like an important question.

  53. AP says:
    @Bliss

    Your list seems to emphasize the lower-IQ Balkan countries with small populations.

    Also, you make a good point but ultimately your conclusions are wrong.

    In general, according to the list you posted – Northern and Eastern Europeans – upper 90s to low 100s. Higher than Indochina but lower than East Asia. As close to one as to the other.

    Balkan Europeans and Irish – indeed, comparable to Indochina.

    • Replies: @Adam
    , @Bliss
  54. Adam says:
    @AP

    Irish have some of the best PISA scores in Europe. They also have a very high literary output per capita, and the oldest vernacular literature in Europe. The Irish experienced genuine oppression at the hands of the British which has retarded their development, but the 92 IQ figure seems totally unbelievable.

    It seems that IQ is fairly constant in Europe, with the Balkans and the southern parts of Italy and Spain being the outliers. Of course, IQ only tells part of the story. A German or an Englishman will probably always be somewhat more capable of achievement than a Russian or a Spaniard with an equivalent IQ due to cultural and genetic factors other than intelligence.

    • Replies: @AP
  55. AP says:
    @Adam

    I also think the Irish (and Croatian) scores are underestimaes because they are so different from PISA results. I was just going with this particular list.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  56. Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior

    The genetic architecture of human reproductive behavior—age at first birth (AFB) and number of children ever born (NEB)—has a strong relationship with fitness, human development, infertility and risk of neuropsychiatric disorders. However, very few genetic loci have been identified, and the underlying mechanisms of AFB and NEB are poorly understood. We report a large genome-wide association study of both sexes including 251,151 individuals for AFB and 343,072 individuals for NEB. We identified 12 independent loci that are significantly associated with AFB and/or NEB in a SNP-based genome-wide association study and 4 additional loci associated in a gene-based effort. These loci harbor genes that are likely to have a role, either directly or by affecting non-local gene expression, in human reproduction and infertility, thereby increasing understanding of these complex traits.

  57. DFH says:
    @Toronto Russian

    Sad that seeing nu-Star Wars and foreign holidays are the best things the cartoonist could think of

  58. DFH says:
    @Bliss

    Sad to see that you have returned, I thought that AK’s comments section had finally become a whites only space

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Mr. XYZ
  59. Dmitry says:
    @Toronto Russian

    Ivanka Trump, Sophie Trudeau and Kate Middleton – educated women who want kids may be rare, but more than enough of them to marry into the elite and mother its next generation (who inherit both smarts and baby rabies).

    It’s more cultural there.

    Kate Middleton is wife of the Prince of England. She has 3 children- but that’s around normal for princess of England. Having children is her main job in life, so there is no surprise that she has a few.

    If Kate Middleton didn’t have children, or only had 1 daughter like Princess Masako of Japan – then she would be viewed as a loser.

    Princess Masako of Japan has had psychological problems, because there was so much pressure against her for only having a daughter.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/the-royals/pressured-to-produce-a-male-heir-japans-stressed-princess-may-travel-abroad-for-the-first-time-in-seven-years/article11324465/

    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
  60. @DFH

    I’m literally shaking.

  61. Dmitry says:
    @Anonymous

    African countries are currently unsuccessful. At the same time, African origin Americans academically do not have achievement proportionally to their population size.

    With India, it is also currently unsuccessful like Africa. However, Indians in America academically have achievement proportional or disproportional to their population size.

    So the current picture for India is similar to groups like Armenians. Armenia is currently undeveloped, but Armenians are viewed as high human capital (or potentially high human capital) because their academic achievement in Russia is at least proportional to their population.

    Explanation about differences within “Indian caste system” seems very provisional and inconclusive. Currently there are castes in India, where children are not given the opportunity to learn reading or writing. So there is no fair way for us to academically compare between different layers of India’s population.

    This division of themselves into castes is clearly a primitive superstition of the Indians, and will likely dissolve (as the caste system mainly has in Japan) if the country will ever modernize.in the future.

    • Replies: @anonh
    , @Yevardian
    , @songbird
  62. Dmitry says:
    @Gerard2

    India is apparently not a country for weak people.

    In India I have not been. But in my family we have a relative who visited India around 25 years ago – and when I asked him about this he said once that India was the worst country he has visited.

    And he had travelled in many countries for his career. And I remember he said he liked African countries, Cuba. etc. But India, he only had bad impressions.

    • Replies: @anonh
  63. Mr. XYZ says:
    @DFH

    Is he Black?

    • Replies: @DFH
  64. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Vietnam also performs much better on PISA than the IQ data above indicates. Based on PISA, Vietnam’s average IQ should be around 100.

    Also, interestingly enough, Davide Piffer’s research concluded that Vietnamese have a genetic average IQ ceiling of 106. That’s even higher than for Chinese, who, according to Piffer, have a genetic average IQ ceiling of 105.

    • Replies: @songbird
  65. DFH says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    I think they prefer the term ‘African-American’

  66. anonh says:
    @Dmitry

    [MORE]

    India’s youth literacy rate is above 95% stop spreading nonsense about a caste (varna/jaati) system of a religion your people have loved to hate.

    Clearly the Jewish method of accepting any offspring of your daughter is Jewish is superior to being patriarchal.

    That’s why Patrilineal Rome, India, China had massive architecture while jews were biting each other’s dicks in the desert||

  67. anonh says:
    @Dmitry

    Well, you silly racist..

    India’s per capita income is almost 2x that of Moldova now and 25 years ago was below that of Congo (today) probably.

    Keep being racist to Indians though, as it’s always acceptable to hate the Pagan||

  68. Yevardian says:
    @Dmitry

    Armenia is a tiny landlocked ex-communist rump-state with no natural resources surrounded by hostile neighbours which has experienced two attempted genocides.

    India has its own subcontinent, nuclear weapons, its only serious rival is across the Himilayas, widespread English, a British infrastructure legacy, and has over 1 billion people. Despite all this its almost certainly the most backward non-black country in the world. And Africans at least have the excuse of geographic isolation.

    Not comparable whatsoever.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  69. songbird says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Vietnamese immigrants to America tend to have similar intelligence to whites, in my view. Not sure if that is representative or not. If it is, to my mind, that makes a small mystery as to why the rest of SE seems to not be as smart as Vietnam.

    I believe China dominated much of Vietnam for about 1000 years, sending many settlers, but also trying to change the culture of the natives. I wonder what was more important, or if it may have even been another factor. But it does seem like a lot of Chinese moved there – 600,000 in the 1920s and 1930s.

    One wonders why the Hoa were so dominant in business, if Vietnamese and Chinese are so similar.

  70. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    The way Dalits are presented to the outside world – said to be the victims of discrimination – seems so similar to the way blacks in America are presented, it makes me suspicious, since I am an American and have heard charges like that ad nauseam.

    The castes in India are very old. Much older than any other example that one can think of. Irish travellers might only be about 500 years old, yet they seem different than regular Irish, in a way that seems to be more than just cultural milieu. Maybe they started that way, or grew into it.

    I think there is something to the castes. One reason is that they seem to exist in every religion in India. Not only Hinduism, but Sikhism, Islam, and Christianity. Those last three are very egalitarian in their texts – Sikhism, especially so. And yet the idea of castes seems to survive.

    I think India is similar to countries in the same latitude. It may even have advantages of scale, when it comes to smart fraction. It seems to be making some progress. It will be interesting to see how far it goes.

    • Replies: @Bliss
    , @Dmitry
  71. Bliss says:
    @AP

    you make a good point but ultimately your conclusions are wrong.

    I proved my point conclusively: the average European IQ is about half a standard deviation lower than the average East Asian IQ. And there is no overlap either, the highest European IQ is still lower than the lowest East Asian IQ. Therefore it is a lie to lump them together at the same level of intelligence.

    In general, according to the list you posted – Northern and Eastern Europeans – upper 90s to low 100s.

    No Eastern European nation has an IQ in the “low 100s”. The highest is at 97. In Northern Europe only tiny Iceland (IQ 101; population less than 350,000) and Norway (IQ 100; population 5.3 million) barely crack the 100 mark. And both of them together are a very small fraction of the population of the Balkans where the average IQ is in the low 90s.

    • Replies: @AP
  72. Bliss says:
    @Hyperborean

    Biology or Culture, either way you are a simpleton and an ignoramus for drawing that conclusion.

    The West African nation Sierra Leone has a higher IQ than the European nations Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Albania.

    African-Americans have a higher IQ than all the nations of MENA and South Asia.

    In the US, African-Americans have reached the pinnacle of achievement in more fields than any non-British, non-Jewish European ethnicity.

    Historically, Africans built this long before the first European was civilized:

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  73. AP says:
    @Bliss

    I proved my point conclusively: the average European IQ is about half a standard deviation lower than the average East Asian IQ.

    Given that the Balkans and the rest of European don’t really overlap (Ireland and Lithuania are outliers) it makes sense to consider these to be two discrete groups, like East Asia vs. Southeast Asia.

    And there is no overlap either, the highest European IQ is still lower than the lowest East Asian IQ.

    And with the exception of the lightly populated Irish and Lithuanian outliers, highest SE Asian IQ is still lower than the lowest non-Balkan European IQ.

    No Eastern European nation has an IQ in the “low 100s”. The highest is at 97.

    Poland (IQ 99, population 38 million). Czech Republic (IQ 98, population 10.5 million). Latvia also at 98.

    In Northern Europe only tiny Iceland (IQ 101; population less than 350,000) and Norway (IQ 100; population 5.3 million) barely crack the 100 mark.

    You forgot Switzerland (IQ 101, population 8.4 million), Austria (IQ 100, population 8.7 million), Netherlands (IQ 100, population 17 million), UK (IQ 100, population 66 million), Luxemburg (IQ 100, population 590,000).

    both of them together are a very small fraction of the population of the Balkans where the average IQ is in the low 90s.

    As I said, Balkans and the rest of Europe are two discrete groups, like Southeast Asia vs. East Asia.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  74. Bliss says:
    @songbird

    India is living proof that Hereditarianism/HBD is a false path.

    The most backward and impoverished part of India is the Brahmin homeland in north-central India, where most of them still live. What does that tell you?

    The rejection of Heredetarianism is a core founding principle of the United States.

    • Replies: @songbird
  75. Bliss says:
    @AP

    You forgot Switzerland (IQ 101, population 8.4 million), Austria (IQ 100, population 8.7 million), Netherlands (IQ 100, population 17 million), UK (IQ 100, population 66 million), Luxemburg (IQ 100, population 590,000).

    None of these countries is in Northern Europe. Why should I have included them with Norway and Iceland?

    And on the other hand, besides the Balkans: Greece (IQ 92; population 10.8 million), Portugal (IQ 95; Population 10.3 million), Ireland (IQ 92; population 6.5 million), Lithuania (IQ 91; population 2.8 million), Macedonia (IQ 91; population 2 million), Cyprus (IQ 91; population 1.2 million).

    What part of “average IQ” don’t you understand?

    Balkans and the rest of Europe are two discrete groups, like Southeast Asia vs. East Asia.

    So dishonest. So idiotic. Who the hell sees the Balkans as discrete from Europe? The poster I was responding to didn’t. Do you see Greece as separate from Europe as well? Why not? If anything it is Russia that is seen as discrete, since most of it’s landmass lies in Asia and a large percentage (or most) of it’s population is fully or partly non-european.

    It’s pathetic how eagerly you throw your fellow Slavs under the bus just to show a slight increase in the average IQ of the rest of Europe. The increase in average IQ would be greater if Eastern Europe was also deemed distinct and only Western, Central, Southern and Northern Europe were counted as real Europe. But even that would be significantly lower than East Asian IQ.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @hgw
  76. @Dmitry

    It’s more cultural there.

    Kate Middleton is wife of the Prince of England. She has 3 children- but that’s around normal for princess of England. Having children is her main job in life, so there is no surprise that she has a few.

    If Kate Middleton didn’t have children, or only had 1 daughter like Princess Masako of Japan – then she would be viewed as a loser.

    Well, Diana had 2 and was adored by everyone. Perhaps the public would go easy on Kate too if she never had the 3rd. But whatever the motivations, the result is that a certain personality type spreads in the rich and powerful class.

    Another example – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Mulroney (politician, daughter of prime minister, studied at Harvard, has 4 kids).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  77. @Bliss

    In the US, African-Americans have reached the pinnacle of achievement in more fields than any non-British, non-Jewish European ethnicity.

    Historically, Africans built this long before the first European was civilized

    You believe everyone was African. Have you gotten around to telling your fellow Basketball-Americans that Confucius was really black yet?

  78. AP says:
    @Bliss

    You forgot Switzerland (IQ 101, population 8.4 million), Austria (IQ 100, population 8.7 million), Netherlands (IQ 100, population 17 million), UK (IQ 100, population 66 million), Luxemburg (IQ 100, population 590,000).

    None of these countries is in Northern Europe. Why should I have included them with Norway and Iceland?

    I meant the northern half of Europe. The part north of the Mediterranean countries. The EU subgroup of “Northern Europe” includes some small states with small populations; Iceland and Norway are a significant % of that small group.

    And on the other hand, besides the Balkans: Greece (IQ 92; population 10.8 million), Portugal (IQ 95; Population 10.3 million), Ireland (IQ 92; population 6.5 million), Lithuania (IQ 91; population 2.8 million), Macedonia (IQ 91; population 2 million), Cyprus (IQ 91; population 1.2 million).

    Macedonia and Greece are in the Balkans. Cyprus is populated by Greeks.

    So you don’t know geography.

    Here is your lesson. The Balkans:

    As I wrote, Lithuania and Ireland are outliers with small populations.

    Balkans and the rest of Europe are two discrete groups, like Southeast Asia vs. East Asia.

    So dishonest. So idiotic. Who the hell sees the Balkans as discrete from Europe?

    It’s no more dishonest that viewing SE Asia and East Asia as two discrete groups.

    Do you see Greece as separate from Europe as well

    Greece as is separate from northern Europe as Thailand is from Korea.

    Is that hard to understand?

    Neither one nor the other is real Asia. They are both Asia, but distinct parts. Just as the Balkans are distinct from the rest of Europe.

    It’s pathetic how eagerly you throw your fellow Slavs under the bus

    Genetics tells us that Slavic-speaking peoples in the Balkans are hardly related to Slavs and are Balkan natives speaking a Slavic language. They are about 20% Slavic in origin – so, as Slavic as an English-speaking African-American with 20% European ancestry is an Englishman.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  79. songbird says:
    @Bliss

    Caste doesn’t correlate perfectly with skin color. Parts of India are very high in UV, about the highest outside of Africa. Indeed, it is thought dark skin re-evolved inside India after being lost on the journey to India.

    Why does coastal India seem more developed? Same reason coastal China is much more developed – it was more open and to trade and foreign ideas. This is obviously true, since the Han are fairly homogeneous. Not to mention coastal China’s proximity to HK, Macao, and Taiwan, and the economic freedom it was allowed.

  80. Dmitry says:
    @Yevardian

    Armenia is a tiny landlocked ex-

    Sure, but then a historian of India, may say that the country has been invaded many times, has suffered from theft from imperialists (the rule of British imperialism only ending in 1947), lack of natural resources, overpopulation and the chains of primitive religions.

    They then may say that unlike India (where most people were illiterate until the 1990s) – Armenians had access to Pushkin, being until recently part of a superpower, and that superpower they were part of had the best educational system in the world at highschool level.

    Which view is fair? In either case, it is a bit subjective.

    Both countries are still not economically developed. At the same time, both nationalities have produced famous geniuses people in the past (or at least geniuses in their field) – Garry Kasparov, Ramanujan, etc.

    There’s no “laboratory conditions” here, and in both cases quite mixed indications which would result in varying subjective speculations about the (potential future) high or low human capital of the two nationalities.

    Despite all this its almost certainly the most backward non-black country in the world. And Africans at least have the excuse of geographic isolation.

    40 years ago, the same may be said economically about China.

    Since the end of 2017, India has been the fastest growing economy in the world.

    Nobody can predict whether India will keep growing like China, and become a developed country eventually. But it seems inevitable that, in the worst case scenario, they will attain middle income status.

    The comparison might also extend to the cultural level. Like China – India had a very sophisticated ancient culture before its later decline.

    You can say “we have to look at the current state in 2019 rather than speculating about the future”. But current state includes obvious trajectories (e.g. it seems clear India will overtake Ukraine in per capita GDP at PPP during the 2020s).

  81. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Until middle of 1990s, the literacy level in India was in the range of 40s% of the population.

    You cannot measure people’s academic ability, if they haven’t had an opportunity to learn to write or read.

    Today, most people in the lowest castes are still largely illiterate in India. So the concept of “different intelligence of different castes” in India is obvious, unverifiable, nonsense, which is produced by Indians because their belief in karma and reincarnation into castes.

    If me and you had been born surrounded by mud, and without school books, because other Indians say we had sinned in some previous life – then “academic ability” would not even be applicable to us (like tennis ability, of someone who has never known what is tennis).

    This doesn’t say that it is not theoretically possible that Indians have somehow created different sub-ethnicities with different genetic capacities in relation to academic study. This is theoretically possible.

    But, there’s no evidence. If we see representative samples of children from different castes, given identical conditions, with the same educational system, and then measure their academic achievement andfind a difference – then that is when you should start believing this.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  82. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    If we see representative samples of children from different castes, given identical conditions,

    Maybe there is or could be kind of “transcaste” adoption study like the trans-class ones in the USA.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  83. Dmitry says:
    @Toronto Russian

    Well, I’m not an expert about English Princesses – but Princess Diana has a serious problem about her husband from the beginning of her marriage (who had another girlfriend), and yet still had pressure to have two children. She then was a luxurious celebrity, with different boyfriends, when the children were in a boarding school.

    For women like Kate Middleton, in an English royalty, to have three children, is not selecting an unusual personality, because most women would have the same behaviour in this situation, and there is less cost to have children, than the cost to her reputation of not having them.

    It doesn’t cost much for her to have more children except unpleasant of pregnancy, and she does not clean, or cook food – and children will then be in boarding school where there is no effort from the parents needed. They have access to multiple palaces and castles in England with hundreds of staff.

    The selective pressure is when women/men shouldn’t have children (and where it is cost is greater than benefit for them to have children), and still have many children.

    Problem for future of society, is personality selected then, seems more for people who don’t planned the consequences of their actions.

  84. Bliss says:
    @AP

    Macedonia and Greece are in the Balkans. Cyprus is populated by Greeks.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkans

    The term “the Balkans” is used more generally for the region; it includes states in the region, which may extend beyond the peninsula, and is not defined by the geography of the peninsula itself.

    The Balkans are usually said to comprise Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo,[a] the Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia, while Greece and Turkey are often excluded.

    Macedonia is Balkan for sure (so I was wrong) but Greece is debatable.

    Greece as is separate from northern Europe as Thailand is from Korea.

    Greece is the mother of European Civilization and you have the nerve to call it “discrete” from Europe? Ridiculous.

    Korea on the other hand is quite distinct from Thailand. They were never parts of the same Civilization.

    • Replies: @AP
  85. Anonymous[175] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    Lower castes need lesser marks and half majority of government jobs reserved for them, again with less qualifications requirement.

    A jew will be a jew though 🤷‍♀️

  86. AP says:
    @Bliss

    Greece is the mother of European Civilization and you have the nerve to call it “discrete” from Europe? Ridiculous.

    And Buddhsim comes form India, does that prove Japan and India aren’t different?

    I said Greece was discrete from Northern Europe. Which it is.

    When you look at European IQs you see two clusters: the Balkans (the zone that was part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries) with average IQs in the low 90s, like SE Asia, and the rest of Europe, with the average IQ being in the high 90s – lower than East Asia but certainly higher than SE Asia and the Balkans.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  87. Bliss says:
    @AP

    I said Greece was discrete from Northern Europe. Which it is.

    And Western Europe is discrete from Eastern Europe, to the point that Nazis deemed Slavs to be “subhumans” fit only to be their slaves. They didn’t think Southern Europeans (Greeks, Italians, Spaniards) were subhumans did they? That doesn’t change the fact that all Europeans belong to a Greco-Roman derived Civilization.

    the rest of Europe, with the average IQ being in the high 90s – lower than East Asia but certainly higher than SE Asia and the Balkans.

    Why don’t you take it a step further? For Eastern Europe has lower IQ than Western and Northern Europe, plus it is much poorer. And it was the part of Europe invaded, occupied, enslaved by mongoloid steppe invaders, resulting in rampant mongrelization.

    • Replies: @AP
  88. AP says:
    @Bliss

    For Eastern Europe has lower IQ than Western and Northern Europe, plus it is much poorer. And it was the part of Europe invaded, occupied, enslaved by mongoloid steppe invaders, resulting in rampant mongrelization.

    Eastern European IQ is pretty close to western/northern European IQ, only slightly lower, with overlap – Poland has the same average IQ as Germany and Sweden and 1 point higher than France, Russia is only 2 points lower than Germany and 1 point lower than France, etc.

    Balkans, OTOH, have significantly lower IQ than both eastern and western/northern Europe.

  89. hgw says:
    @Kyle'n

    Something like “The Foundation”, by Asimov?

  90. hgw says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Do you think that countries that start/have started their demographic transition later will enjoy, at a certain point in the future, a big enough IQ advantage to be able to establish some kind of hegemony (be it temporary)? Could China, which started its transition later, remain an overall very smart place (and smarter than North America or Europe), and be the most advanced and civil place on earth?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  91. hgw says:
    @Bliss

    It is impossible for Ireland and Portugal to have so low IQs. Portugal has the same PISA scores as Poland, which is estimated as having IQ 98/99, and so does Ireland. Besides, Ireland is rich as fuck, and dont tell me that all that gdp is because it is a tax haven. It cant be even half of it, and it is enormous in per capita terms. So dont jump to conclusions. The only dumb area of Europe by North Western European/East Asian standards seems to be the Balkans. And even they have a lot of growing to do, in economics, living standards, education reforms, and even nutrition and urbanization (all of these matter for PISA scores, which, in turn, is accepted by Anatoly karlin as a proxy for IQ; I am not sure he is right on this, but, between me and him, he is the master). The only places from western Europe that can be safely regarded as having a significantly lower iq are Andalusia, or southern Spain, and Southern Italy. Portugal and Ireland? An entire different league.

  92. Passer by says:
    @Cicerone

    Three problems with that.

    1.
    TFR is has been dropping in Scandinavian countries, recently it does not look good, and this will lead to defacto dysgenics – even if some of them are not dysgenic in-groups they will decline in numbers due to negative birth rate, which will nesseciate their population replacement by migrants, that will (with very high possibility) cause an IQ drop in the country. According to PIAAC and PISA the IQ of migrants in Scandinavia is quite low. And currently there are plenty of studies showing an IQ drop in Scandinavian countries.

    2. Dysgenic fertility has been detected in Iceland, and also exists among women in Denmark and Norway, but not in Sweden or Finland.

    So it does not appear that every Scandinavian country has no dysgenics.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-icelandic-dysgenics/

    https://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol20/14/20-14.pdf

    3. Migrants appear to have pretty high TFR in Scandinavian countries, especially muslims. According to Pew, muslims have their highest fertility in Scandinavian countries, higher than in France.

    https://muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pew-fertility-rate-for-muslims-and-non-muslims-in-europe/

  93. Passer by says:
    @Cicerone

    Oh, and rural fertility is higher than Urban fertility, especially in capitol cities, in both Finland and Norway. How is this possible if their is no dysgenic fertility? This sounds strange.

  94. Romanian says: • Website
    @Kyle'n

    You forget one thing that makes it even worse – we have exhausted surface resources and easily accessible oil. No more gushers when striking the ground with pickaxes, no more easy coal to jumpstart an Industrial Revolution. Some of the metal we can recycle of course, but this is why the US and other colonial places jumped so far ahead once they had the right people. They had never been extensively exploited by advanced civilizations.

  95. Romanian says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    Will we be boiling alive from the waste heat of our civilizations and be poisoned by their effluent?

  96. @hgw

    Possibly China will become the most functional major civilization. It went deeply dysgenic from the 1960s, but unlike the West, isn’t supercharging the process with Third World migrants.

  97. Passer by says:
    @Cicerone

    Btw see the comment of Emil O. W. Kirkegaard here:

    “These numbers are not comparable because the groups do not have the same meaning across countries IQ-wise. The IQ-education relationship depends on the distribution of education in the country.”

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/cicerone-on-dysgenic-decline/#comment-2044058

    You compare university educated populations comprising 40-50 % of the population in western countries vs 10-15 % in developing countries. Obviously this will give you the appearance of higher dysgenics in developing countries.

    So you compared the TFR of two very large groups (with secondary and with tertiary education) in western countries, where “almost everyone” gets a degree and thus the average IQ of people with degrees is not very high, and claimed little dysgenics, and then compared the TFR of one very large group (with secondary education) and one very small group (with tertiary education, probably no more than 10-15 %), thus with obviously very high IQ, and then claimed big dysgenics in developing countries.

    For example only 14 % of brasilians have college degree and only 17 % of chinese, as well as mere 8 % of South Africans. Obviously they must have pretty high IQ and this will lead to the appearance of “strong dysgenics” in developing countries. But the effect is caused due to the very small university educated population, as opposed to the very large (and therefore with lower average IQ, and therefore with higher TFR) university educated population in the West

    In the same way, dysgenics were “higher” in western countries in the 50s but also the share of the university educated population was way lower, which means that you are comparing the IQ of the average population vs people with very high IQ, and obviously this gives you bigger dysgenics in the past and smaller today.

    Point is dysgenics is “smaller” today simply because the “high IQ group” in the West (people with tertiary education) became nearly 50 % of the population.

    In other words you underestimated dysgenics in western coutries and overestimated dysgenics in developing countries.

    A better way would be to compare only people with advanced degrees in the West (smaller share of the population) compared to all of those with university degrees in developing countries.

    When you look at Norway a pretty good dysgenics of natives emerges. Look at TFR of women with advanced degrees only (which should be equivalent to all people with degrees in third world countries as a share of the population).

    2,2 for those with low level education vs 1,78 TFR for those with advanced degree.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/236230798_Childbearing_impeded_education_more_than_education_impeded_childbearing_among_Norwegian_women_Proceedings_of_the_National_Academy_of_Science_July_19_2011_vol_108_no_29_11830-11835

    TLDR:

    1. Dysgenics is higher in the West and lower in developing countries than what he suggests. Especially in China it could be very low.

    2. Still the situation is better in the West overall.

    3. But even in Scandinavia among natives the problem remains, pretty clear dysgenics exist there,

    (also see Iceland for another study)

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/01/10/1612113114

    and in most other western countries the problem could be worse.

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