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shanghai-deus-ex

Wei Geisheing (2013). Aerial Shanghai by Crane Operator 2.

Let’s take the standard assumption that national power consists of three main elements: Economic, military, and cultural (“soft”).

Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom?

Economic Power

China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at the latest {here’s my 2012 article on this}, and will almost certainly repeat that in nominal terms by the early 2020s.

Chinese development is extremely similar to South Korea’s but with a lag of 20 years {East Asia’s Twenty Year Rule}. Consequently, a China that converges to South Korean development levels in relative terms – something that we can expect to see by 2040 – will automatically be three times the size of the US economy just by dint of its demographic preponderance. This is furthermore assuming that there is no serious US economic crisis during this period (e.g. there are estimates that US GDP is 5-10% more than it “should be” thanks to the USD’s status as the global reserve currency – what happens if/when that ends?).

There is absolutely no reason why this process of convergence must stall at any point, since average IQ explains almost all economic success, and Chinese IQ is comparable to those of the most developed OECD nations. To be sure, as I pointed out, developed East Asian nations tend to underperform their IQ; they are only as rich as European countries about 5 IQ points below them, such as France (in contrast, the Americans over perform their average IQ, probably thanks to their smart fractions, the USD’s status, and economies of scale). Nonetheless, this does mean that the average EU level is eminently reachable. And it is even possible that China will eventually do relatively better than Japan or Korea because of the unparalleled economies of scale opened up to it by its 1.4 billion population.

As China continues to develop, its economy will likewise continue getting more and more sophisticated – as of this year, it has twice as many industrial robots as the entirety of North America, and more supercomputers than the US. {China Overtakes US in Scientific Articles, Robots, Supercomputers}

Hence the utter stupidity of comparisons to the 1980s American scare over Japan. China is not the next Japan – it is the next TEN Japans {2011 article on Top 10 Sinophobe Myths}.

Military Power

Military power is primarily a function of economic power. This is a relation that is so obvious and well-established that it barely needs further elaboration.

Chinese military spending is currently at a third of the US level, but it is soaring rapidly and – as in Russia – getting more bang for the buck due to China’s lower labor costs and large share of domestic armaments production. It is also seeing rapid technological convergence in key military technologies. Once this process is finished, it will be free to start engaging in a massive buildup, without the risk of its military falling into obsolescence. This is already happening: PLAN is slated to have more ships than the USN by 2030.

On my projections, comprehensive Chinese military power should exceed that of the US by the early 2030s, and Chinese naval power should overtake the US by the early 2040s – and this is under the assumption that China continued to spend a significantly lower percentage of its GDP than the US {Comprehensive Military Power}.

It’s also worth pointing out that as a Eurasian power connected to the rest of the World-Island through OBOR, and possessing unsinkable aircraft carriers in the form of its artificial islands in the South China Sea, China is less absolutely dependent on its Navy for its military security than the US. While China has been ballyhooed for its lack of power projection capability. As it happens, China recently announced plans to produce 1,000 Y-20 strategic heavy lift airplanes, which will eventually give it strategic airlift capacities well in excess of that of the US.

The fact that China is not (yet) throwing its weight around means absolutely nothing. “Lying low and not taking the lead” was a conscious approach formulated by Deng Xiaoping, and one that that has paid off handsomely to date. There is extremely little point to be had from forcing a confrontation when you are effortlessly and massively gaining in relative power on your potential adversaries with each passing year, at least so long as your red lines aren’t crossed (e.g. recognition of Taiwanese independence).

Cultural Power

According to the Nature Index, a proxy for high quality science production, China is now 50% – up from 25% five years ago, when the index was launched – as productive as the US, and far ahead of everyone else. Now I actually agree with China pessimists that the Chinese, or rather East Asians in general, are more conformist than Europeans, which limits creativity {Coffee Salon Demographics}. Japan’s and Korea’s underperform relative to their IQ on elite science even more than they do on GDP per capita. Nonetheless, even if China were to attain just the per capita performance of Japan and South Korea, it would still generate around 50% more elite level science than the US. By analogy with Japanese and Korean experience, I expect to happen by the 2030s.

I am more skeptical about China’s potential to be competitive in the cultural sphere. English is the world’s lingua franca, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Its literary, film, and video game output is derivative and uninspiring. They can’t even create a good state-owned propaganda channel – how many Westerners watch/read CCTV relative to RT? It is only in the past decade that Japan has started generating significant cultural power, a generation after they became rich. By extension, I suspect we may have to wait for the second half of the century for a Chinese cultural renaissance.

TLDR

Even assuming no disruptive developments in the United States, such as a catastrophic unwinding of the dollar or secessionism provoked by ideological polarization, the emergence of China as the world’s preeminent superpower by the middle of the 21st century is near inevitable. It is a mere derivative of its demographic preponderance, and the close relation between national IQ and socio-economic development (buttressed by the prior experience of South Korea).

By the 2040s, China will have by far the world’s largest economy in both PPP-adjusted and nominal terms (2-3x that of the United States), its most powerful military, and comparable naval power and elite scientific production. However, it should still lag the US in cultural productivity. China will only truly regain its mantle as the Celestial Empire in the second half of the 21st century.

***

PS. As with my standard “futuristic” projections, all this assumes there are no radical discontinuities in our world – no machine superintelligence, no mass gene editing for superhuman IQ, etc. That said, is seems probably that atheist, technophile China is very well positioned to compete in these “transhumanist” scenarios, should they materialize.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: China, Futurism, Geopolitics 
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  1. Anatoly,

    In this piece you failed to adress any of the arguments I’ve been making, so allow me to start repeating myself:

    Seeing military power as a “direct function of economic power” is an overly simplistic approach, that fails to account for differences in “HBD”. Consequently your approach doesn’t work once we start applying it to nations in the real world.

    Please explain why the South Korea did not emerge as a major military power, despite having economic size and military spending comparable to Russia’s levels?

    Elsewhere you said:

    Military power is a direct function of economic power.

    It is true that wars require money, and having more money makes you more capable, but the formula to this “function”, you’re talking about, will be individual for every nation, based upon the differences in HBD. It will look different for China, Russia and the US. Having more money makes your country stronger, other things being equal. “Other things” being all the other factors (beyond average IQ scores and GDP), factors that influence a nation’s military power, which you failed to consider.

  2. anon[220] • Disclaimer says:

    English is the world’s lingua franca, and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

    Just like Greek was the “lingua franca” in the civilized parts of Roman Empire.
    Perhaps all comparisons of America with Rome are overblown. Perhaps, in the history of the future, China is the analogue of Rome and Europe and Anglosphere are analogues of Greece and Hellenistic world.
    No idea if there already is any science fiction depicting this scenario.

    • Replies: @S
  3. Regarding whether they will not be interested in the rest of the world, something which I think Felix Keverich has wrote many times.

    Once they will be the biggest economy by far in the world, they will have interests everywhere. It’s inevitable. You cannot be the biggest economy in the world without having trade ties (especially vital are imports of raw materials and exports to pay for them) on basically all continents.

    Whether or not the Chinese are interested in ruling the world is moot. They will be forced to get involved everywhere, because they will be so big that they will see vital interests everywhere. And once mission creep sets in, they will be all over the world. Again, even if they initially have no intention of being a big superpower at all.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @pyrrhus
  4. Jason Liu says:

    I roughly agree with all three, but let me add a fourth: Likeability

    Unfortunately, the world is going to meet the “Ugly Chinaman” stereotype soon. Arrogant, thin-skinned, super materialist and filled with hubris, China’s bad national attitude is a strategic threat to itself. It doesn’t matter how strong or rich China becomes if it’s hated by others and doesn’t have a bloc of all-weather allies to fall back on. And I’m saying this as a Chinese nationalist.

    Xi is gonna have to maintain China’s image and figure out how to make genuine friends with Asian neighbors, not just buy them off with trade deals. Thus far China has not really put forward a competing, universal set of morals, which means it can only play defense (i.e. lose slowly) in the ideological war against liberal democracies.

    Worse, most Chinese people think all we need for strategic competition is a growing economy and more military hardware. Very few understand the importance of soft power (most cannot really define it), social values, and moral positioning. For long term Sinotriumph, China must at least adopt a benevolent image, learn to take criticism without flipping out and going “what about America?!” and set itself up as an alternative to the west.

    Granted, Chinese society is at an immature stage and things may change. But if Xi simply consulted advisors with social experience overseas, we’d get there a lot more quickly. The next few decades is a critical window for China to establish an alternative to the liberal world order, and it must seize on liberal democracy’s current weakness to fortify its position. If everything goes right, liberal democracy may collapse within 100 years, and China will finally have what it wants: To be left alone.

  5. Disagree about the cultural power – unlike the military one, it’s not a function of economics.

    I’ve said it before but basically, China needs to loosen the censorship for the creative spirits of the Chinese people to produce a compelling pop culture.

    Japan has true freedom of speech. A big reason for their cultural power is that they produce shit that is original – it can be weird, ridiculous or funny but in any case, they produce far more original, new and exciting cultural content that the whole European Union combined (a counterexample for the supposed advantage Europeans have in creativity) and the freedom they have is a huge factor in this.

    There are other subjective factors too, like the Japanese language being more pleasant to the ear and less strange compared to Chinese. You can recognize words and phrases and repeat them easily, and pick up quite a lot of Japanese just by watching anime.

    Anyway I am not sure whether the Chinese even need to have a globally popular pop culture, so it doesn’t really matter.

  6. DFH says:

    It is only in the past decade that Japan has started generating significant cultural power, a generation after they became rich. By extension, I suspect we may have to wait for the second half of the century for a Chinese cultural renaissance.

    You are too optimistic, the Japanese have always been much more succesful culturally than the Chinese. They had an impressive literature and cinema even by the 1930s. By contrast, despite thousands of years of civilisation, China has produced very little culture of interest to non-Chinese.
    I also think that live-action Asian TV/film has an inherently limited appeal to mass foreign audiences

    • Agree: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Anonymous
    , @Paw
  7. DFH says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Please explain why the South Korea did not emerge as a major military power, despite having economic size and military spending comparable to Russia’s levels?

    South Korean PPP GDP is about half of Russia’s. Although, by that metric, India has an economy more than double that of Russia’s without conmensurate military power.

  8. Kimppis says:

    This is a very good summary, thank you.

    I just read that according to one source, China is already the clear number 2 in brand power as well, with a global share of 15% (it was 3% in 2008, now more than Germany and Japan combined and those two are fully developed countries with a combined population of around 200 million).

    The US still dominates with 43%, but at this rate it seems that even China’s brands will “triumph” in or even by the 2030s.

    Source is r/sino: https://www.reddit.com/r/Sino/comments/9esvgy/china_and_us_dominate_the_brand_value_rankings/

    China should overtake the US in R&D (PPP) spending this year? Or in 2019? Or did it happen already? So there’s another metric.

    Btw, what do you think of the recent devaluations? It seems to be a repeat of 2014, kind of, but it matters for nominal GDP (which in itself of course isn’t THAT important) and those projections.

    It’s it’s obviously quite pointless and impossible to predict long-term exchange rates and hence, nominal GDPs very accurately, but do you still think that China will overtake the US by the mid-2020s? Yuan would need to strengthen quite a lot, right?

    On the other hand, China’s GDP might actually be underestimated, as China doesn’t actually use up-to-date methodology to measure its GDP yet, or so I’ve read. Even though many “pessimists” think that’s China’s GDP are faked and overestimated, it could actually be the opposite. Maybe by 20%?

    Some very recent reports are also stating that China’s problems with (fighter) jet engines might be almost over too. Has China beaten even the most optimistic predictions? Wouldn’t be the first time to be honest, but SCMP isn’t the best of sources and I haven’t been following these development that closely this year. But here’s the article: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2162765/china-nearing-mass-production-j-20-stealth-fighter-after-engine

    Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said that China expected the US to deploy between 200 and 300 F-35s – its most advanced stealth fighter – in the Asia-Pacific by 2025, which meant “China needs a similar number of J-20s, or at least 200”.

    One of the military sources said the public could get its first glimpse of the new stealth fighter, complete with its upgraded engine, at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition later in the year.

    The article must be taken with a huge grain of salt and it’s not clear where they got those F-35 numbers from. I’m not even sure how those planes are directly comparable. the F-35 is smaller and the two fighters have different roles, etc. And you also have to take into account all the other assets in the region (on both sides, of course).

    But if China manages to procure 200-300 J-20 by around 2025 and even if they’ll be mostly equipped with these stopgap engines, it will IMHO mean that the US won’t be able to “defend” Taiwan (i.e. defend China from… China). The end. After that, China would likely beat the US even in a long-term conflict over Taiwan (and the surrounding area). There’s no way around that.

    Hundreds of J-20, a very large number of advanced SAMs (S-400s and similar Chinese systems), a sizeable fleet of actually modern SSNs (Type 095s) and SSKs (they already have those) and ASW frigates and corvettes, plus the huge geographical advantage would ensure China’s victory by 2025-30. Of course, the amphibious assault would still be risky and costly, but the end result would not be in doubt.

  9. @DFH

    Is it fair to describe SK as one half of Russia? Perhaps, a one third? Come on, it’s at a qualitatively lesser level. In a hypothetical confrontation, SK will be promptly smashed by Russia.

  10. @Spisarevski

    There are other subjective factors too, like the Japanese language being more pleasant to the ear and less strange compared to Chinese.

    True, but up to a point. Chinese songs are very melodious and catchy. Japanese songs are cacophonous.

  11. Dmitry says:

    As military power, there will surely be some significant time-delay. Military strength is significantly as result of past investment. In the USA and Russia, there are many decades of past massive investments in the military, resulting in a lot of current military advantages. China still has many years of investments to catch up.

    -

    If we are talking about a per capita sense, I’m a bit skeptical China ever can match Japan (civilization output, economic development).

    Japan is a very productive and elite nationality. The idea China is only 20 years behind Japan, is not clear. It could be a century behind in some ways?

    Of countries to compare, it’s a bit unfair to match it against Japan, one of the world’s most developed and refined countries in quite a few areas of civilization.

    -

    In terms of absolute power, I think we all sure now, China will soon reach a kind of superpower level quite soon, as a result of its population size.

    China will probably overtake America, to become the world’s largest economy in GDP, before it reaches as high as current per capita GDP of Poland.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Ilya
  12. Kimppis says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Well, not entirely true. Actually invading South Korea would obviously be very difficult, even if the two countries shared a border. Very much depends on the scenario.

    The thing is, and I think somebody already replied this to you earlier (it might have been DFH?), that Russia simply spends a larger share of its GDP on the military.

    So Russia’s military spending in PPP is maybe $150 billion? So yeah, that’s three times more. Maybe 4 times in reality?

    SK’s PPP GDP is also higher than its nominal, but the country is also much more dependent on imports, its MIC is much more limited in scale, there’s probably less “hidden spending,” etc.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  13. Yee says:

    Chinese in the “cultural sphere” are the worst White-worshippers in China. So there’s no hope they can create any soft power until the complete fall of the Whiteman.

    We should be content to get rich and get strong, never mind the soft power. Most of the “cultural sphere” is so brainwashed by Whiteman, they’re counter-productive.

    • Replies: @Hail
  14. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich

    What about Starcraft and other military esports? Isn’t South Korea a major virtual military power?

  15. AaronB says:
    @Jason Liu

    Unfortunately, the world is going to meet the “Ugly Chinaman” stereotype soon. Arrogant, thin-skinned, super materialist and filled with hubris, China’s bad national attitude is a strategic threat to itself. I

    That goes together with aspiring to be a superpower – America had it, Germany, Japan, even England.

    Now that America is trying to “be great again” its trying to resurrect that attitude.

    You can’t be a gentle great power – if you’re gentle, then you have no interest in being a great power. One does not simply stumble into great power status. It is not an inevitability based on size and IQ.

    One must desperately want it and strive for it, like China is – and this implies a certain aggressive attitude as well as created a host of mood disorders.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  16. Dmitry says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Either way, as result of the size of the population, it’s inevitable that China’s going to be much more powerful in the future, even before it only reaches an upper-middle ranking in economic development.

    But there will be a great time-delay in military power, relative to their net economic power. China will not rival America and Russia for many years. Unlike these, China didn’t inherit many decades of superpower investment in military and related technologies.

    In terms of policy, Chinese population will be likely much more worried about improving their quality of life (which is still low on average), than supporting external adventures of its leadership.

    Chinese population see easily that their life is below other countries, and in need of years more internal investment. There are currently reports of problems of intolerable air quality of many cities, of mass poverty in the countryside, and of incompetently managed, centrally planned state investments, with high levels of corruption.

  17. Tulip says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Economy is not “money”, it is productive capacity. The size of your military is a direct function of the size of your productive economy, as you can’t devote more than 100% of GDP to manufacturing tanks.

    Population + Economic Production + Technological Development pretty much spells out the material basis of your fighting capacity, leaving out “elan” and not having a fighting age population consisting of diverse overweight crybabies with criminal records, which is a cultural issue.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  18. @Jason Liu

    If social credit works out, a shrine should be erected to Qian Xuesen.

  19. @AaronB

    Pot isn’t a basis for national policy, either.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Hyperborean
  20. AaronB says:

    Soft power tends to be negatively correlated with hard power.

    When Germany had imperial ambitions, France was the cultural center of Europe. When Germany was the country of poets and thinkers, it had no hard power. Japan only acquired soft power after it was defeated in WW2.

    America during its expansionist phase had no soft power, and only acquired it after WW2. This was the beginning of American decline, and America’s superpower status was the result of Europe and Asia having destroyed itself.

    The reason is because the attitude needed to create soft power – culture – is opposed to the attitude needed to create hard power.

    Ancient China has tremendous soft power – modern aggressive China not so much.

    China will probably be a great power for a while but more in the manner of 19th century aggressive European states than America post WW2, and will eventually antagonize enough people that will join together to humble it.

    After that, China will probably return to its ancient traditions excavator the aggressive Western thing, like Japan is sort of doing. At that point there will be a chance to develop soft power.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Malla
  21. OT:

    Today the EU has done a trifecta. It passed the ‘worst’ (according to Julia Reda) versions of Art 13 and 14 which includes a ‘link tax’ and ‘copyright filter’ and other disgusting things, it decided to formalise Article 7 proceedings (which could lead to sanctions) against Hungary over migration and it has massively boosted a mostly useless Frontex border force, which will almost certainly be used for adventures abroad over time due to mission creep.

    As it becomes more authoritarian and more imperial, I suspect we will see the outgrowth of a eurosceptic left á la Corbyn across Europe. So far, the left has been very pro-EU but hopefully that will change. Today’s trifecta has somehow managed to alienate everyone. Left and right on internet freedom, the right on its incessant attacks on Hungary and the left on Frontex.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  22. Another great AK article.

    There are I believe two trends in China that may derail or cause a large pause in it surpassing the US. The first is demographics in that with an ageing population and low birthrate, a refrain that is commonly heard is that China will grow old before it grows rich. Is this likely to be a serious problem?

    There have also been around 30 instances of a country’s private debt (loans advanced to businesses and individuals) increasing by 40% or more over five years since WW2, all of which reported a big slowdown or outright crisis in the consecutive five years. In China, private debt grew by 60% over the last five years to 2017, probably the fastest rate in recorded history. That was due to instructions to keep loans flowing in the wake of the 2008 crisis. There are already signs of a slowdown and the fallout from a debt binge of this magnitude has never been seen before.

    Debt binge:

    https://enterprise.press/stories/2017/02/03/chinas-kiss-of-debt

    Funding crunch for VC funds:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/16/technology/china-startups-technology-economy.html

  23. @Felix Keverich

    In a hypothetical confrontation, SK will be promptly smashed by Russia.

    Using nukes, yes. Otherwise, as others have pointed out, you couldn’t even get there, and even if you had a common border, it’d be very difficult to occupy it.

    Another point, to which you haven’t responded, is that having a huge indigenous MIC is always an advantage when comparing military expenditure levels, since imports are usually more expensive.

    Anyway, the Korean military is not very good, because it’s too rigid. I think the Chinese are more thoughtful about what kind of military could work the best. The South Koreans are content to be consistently much stronger than North Korea, which they have achieved without much effort decades ago.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    , @J
  24. @Kimppis

    The thing is, and I think somebody already replied this to you earlier (it might have been DFH?), that Russia simply spends a larger share of its GDP on the military.

    Would spending more bring SK up to Russia’s level without Karlin’s magic thinking?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Dmitry
  25. @Thulean Friend

    Article 7 proceedings (which could lead to sanctions) against Hungary over migration

    It was due to rule of law and corruption and whatever. It wasn’t even a very well-written, they could’ve criticized Orbán much better.

    But it’s interesting that the “based” Austrian chancellor supported it. Orbán will probably need to enter an alliance with the more radical right pretty soon.

    • Replies: @notanon
    , @Mitleser
  26. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    but more in the manner of 19th century aggressive European states than America post WW2

    Good Lord I hope not! First, it doesn’t seem to be in their general history to be expansionist. Second, they will have one serious hell of a time trying to colonize the Muslim world the way Europeans did. Sh. Abdul Hakim Murad was once asked about this particular question and he mentioned that the Muslim world seems fine to work with the Chinese and buy stuff from them, but they’ll take American super-power hegemony over an analogous Chinese version any day. I tend to agree with him on that point. The reasons he mentioned were very clear; much more wide-ranging historical contact as well as shared Abrahamic/People-of-the-Book ties.

    and will eventually antagonize enough people that will join together to humble it.

    Let’s hope this doesn’t have to happen as a result of the previous point because we are talking WW3. Not pretty.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @anonymous
  27. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:

    They can’t even create a good state-owned propaganda channel – how many Westerners watch/read RT relative to CCTV?

    RT has market share in the West because there are receptive market segments for it. Namely, the old school, anti-neoliberal and anti-American Left, which was pro-Soviet or at least Soviet apologists during the Cold War. And the Alt-Right and the anti-neoliberal and anti-American and ethnonationalist Right, who view Russia as traditionalist and at least semi-Western.

    China obviously can’t appeal to these market segments. If it went full Maoist again, it might appeal to some old school Leftists. It can’t appeal to the Far Right because it’s not Western.

    That leaves the neoliberal, woke, and hip hop based cultural mainstream market. It’s not worth trying to appeal to this market, and there’s a great cost to trying to do so, namely spreading this culture domestically.

  28. @Tulip

    Saudi Arabia fights wars without having much in the way of “productive capacity”. The stuff you need to fight a war – most of the time you can just buy. You can even buy foreign soldiers for your wars: Saudis are using mercenaries from Sudan.

    • Replies: @Tulip
  29. @Felix Keverich

    If it built a fully independent indigenous MIC (it takes probably at least a couple decades) and spent a similar portion for at least a couple decades, it’d still be less than half as powerful as Russia, because – due to its bigger size – Russia would have more economies of scale. Building 50 airplanes from one type costs usually way more than half of what it costs to build 100.

    You can rest assured that China will have no problems with economies of scale, and it already has a mostly indigenous (and mostly self-sufficient) MIC, which will be self-sufficient soon enough.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  30. Talha says:
    @DFH

    They had an impressive literature and cinema even by the 1930s.

    Anybody who has not partaken of Japanese cinema from its golden age; Mizoguchi, Korusawa…is missing out on some really good stuff.

    Peace.

  31. Dmitry says:
    @Felix Keverich

    High level of Russia, is also a result of decades of superpower military investment.

    Even many new things coming into service now, like Su-34, are projects from the end of Soviet Union, which were neglected in the 1990s.

    It’s a result of decades of colossal, superpower level investment in military technology, manufacturing, and many related areas.

    So Russian economy is not at a superpower level, but the military power is a result of being one of the world’s only two superpowers of the 20th century.

    South Korea, is nothing even in the same league, will never be close to a superpower – it’s also only a very recently developed country.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  32. @reiner Tor

    Forget nukes. Targeting SK ports with standoff missiles will prevent fuel imports and quickly bring entire economy to a halt. SK leadership would then be forced to prioritise between needs of its military and radiply developing humanitarian crisis in the cities.

    Two ways to win a war:

    1) Destroying the enemy

    2) Coercing him into peace.

    Coercing SK will be pretty easy for Russia to do. Countries like SK, Japan have grown too fragile to afford prolonged conflict with pretty much anybody. That’s one reason behind their timid foreign policy posturing. And China is evolving similar way.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @reiner Tor
  33. @Anonymous

    China used to appeal heavily to individuals seeking a Deist form of morality and social order. I think a transhumanism sans wokeness appeal can work. It’s difficult but all good things are. 天下无难事,只怕有心人.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  34. @Felix Keverich

    China is neither Japan nor SK, for better or worse.

  35. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    Unfortunately I don’t think our hopes will have any impact :)

    Seriously, though, I think this is just something every great civilization has to get out of its system. Its sort of like the flu or a virus – you get infected and you just have to get it out of your system before you can return to more important things.

    Its like a childish adolescent phase. Europe went through it, Japan, the Muslim world – why not China?

    I doubt it’ll get as bad as WW3. Its just something the Chinese have to go through now before they can grow up for the second time.

  36. @Felix Keverich

    So your advantage would be that while Russia is huge and its largest population centers far from South Korea, South Korea is huge and its economy would take a huge hit if being targeted by Russian standoff weapons.

    This tactic won’t scale well against China.

  37. Rye says:
    @Felix Keverich

    You have a point. Recent hunter-gatherer/herder ancestry seems to be correlated with martial spirit and athletic inclinations. Chinese have been Malthusian farmers for longer than perhaps any other population on Earth and have spent most of their history being ruled by external hunter/herder martial elites.

  38. @reiner Tor

    How come manufacturing powerhouse SK couldn’t develop world class indigenous military technology?

    How come China is trailing Israel in arms exports? – actual fact from SIPRI database LOL

    Is it just me, or Mongoloids do not seem to have a knack for this thing.

  39. @Rye

    wut

    The Yuan lasted less than 80 years, the Qing lasted 276 years. In contrast, Zhou alone lasted about 800 years.

    • Replies: @Rye
  40. @Felix Keverich

    How come manufacturing powerhouse SK couldn’t develop world class indigenous military technology?

    Being a vassal of the US requires tribute to the MIC.

  41. @reiner Tor

    Similar to SK, China is growing increasingly dependent on seaborn imports of fuel. Furthermore, Chinese leaders have plans to house most of their population in gigantic coastal agglomerations ( >100 million people each). It will be pretty easy for a capable adversary to disrupt life in these habitats.

    I’m not saying that owning China will be as easy as owning Koreans, but it’s a vulnerable society and growing more vulnerable as it’s becoming more prosperous and complex.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  42. EldnahYm says:

    China has an aging demographic, is already past its peak as a manufacturing hub due to increasing costs, has rampant capital flight into the U.S., has little meaningful cultural output(unlike both Japan and South Korea), and is sitting atop the worst potential housing bust in human history. Furthermore much of China, lots of Guizhou or Yunnan for example is miserably poor. They have little natural resources, a giant population to feed, and are totally dependent on international trade. No one would confuse China with South Korea if they visited the two places. Pollution is horrible, you can’t drink from the tap, roads are bad, scammers everywhere, all of the signs of a low trust society are there. If China manages to be relatively stable over the next 40 years, I would consider that a huge success for them.

    Militarily China is not highly projection based, has little geographic barriers, is facing a declining pool of recruits, and is surrounded by people who don’t like them(having Pakistan as an ally is a bug, not a feature). Personally I think much of China’s military ambitions are defensive anyhow. If they think they can compete with the U.S., they’re crazy. Kim Jong-Il batshit level crazy.

    I also am puzzled by the notion that significant cultural impact from Japan is only a decade old.

  43. @Felix Keverich

    How come manufacturing powerhouse SK couldn’t develop world class indigenous military technology?

    It did to an extent, but because it’s relatively smaller than Russia and it doesn’t want to become a great military power, it found that it doesn’t have economies of scale for it, so its indigenous military products would always be way more expensive than just buying it from its allies. (Meaning the US.) Also it’s politically useful to buy something from the US, because of the trade imbalance.

    These issues won’t plague China.

    How come China is trailing Israel in arms exports?

    In 2016 it was double of the Israeli value, so there’s probably a lot of fluctuation.

    Mongoloids do not seem to have a knack for this thing.

    Wishful thinking, but we’ll probably see soon enough.

  44. Tulip says:
    @Felix Keverich

    I believe the statement AK made was that “Military power is a direct function of economic power.”

    You said, no sir, money is only part of it. I came back and said money, nothing, its productive ability.

    You rightly point out that money without productive capacity can buy armaments (if it finds a willing seller).

    But it all goes to show that military power is a direct function of economic power, as the Cold War struggle between the USA and the USSR demonstrated, as the Russians just couldn’t keep up with US military spending. I foresee a similar dynamic with Sodom and Beijing come 2040-2050.

  45. @Felix Keverich

    Furthermore, Chinese leaders have plans to house most of their population in gigantic coastal agglomerations ( >100 million people each). It will be pretty easy for a capable adversary to disrupt life in these habitats.

    Oh, it certainly won’t be any easier than hitting Moscow (something like 10% of Russia alone), or, even better, just a few oil/natural gas fields and pipelines, without which Russia would not be able to use its natural resources any more.

    I don’t think there’s anything intrinsically easier about disrupting life in China than in Russia. China is huge enough.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  46. @DFH

    It is completely unsurprising that Russia is a more formidable military power than India and South Korea, notwithstanding India’s far larger population and South Korea’s in-some-ways more advanced and diversified economy.

    For one thing, South Korea and India lack Russia’s Massive reserves of oil, gas, and commercially/ militarily valuable minerals/metals.

    They also both lack Russia’s vast fertile agricultural land, in absolute terms and even more dangerously relative to their populations.

    On the other hand, I don’t know about Russia keeping all of its vast territory longer-term with a steadily declining population.

  47. @EldnahYm

    The year is 2010 and forever will be.

  48. @DFH

    India is dirt poor. Aggregate GDP data is not worth much for dirt poor countries. For example if Africa was a united country, it would still not amount to much. (Okay, India is better than Africa, but you get the point.)

    You need to be at least somewhat developed, or else your aggregate GDP would be discounted.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  49. @EldnahYm

    There’s nothing crazy about China thinking it can compete militarily, or in almost any other way, with a USA that faces the collapse of our currency, the coming inability to borrow enough affordable to keep the welfare/warfare State going, and then widespread civil unrest and racial violence.

    How about a Mexican secessionist movement across the usa’s two most populous States (CA and TX) — does that sound like a far fetched prospect?

    China and any other enemy or rival of the USA merely needs to wait.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
    , @notanon
  50. @reiner Tor

    How would Russia fare with its two biggest and most significant, most prosperous cities destroyed? What would be left without the Moscow and SPB metro areas, exactly?

    Now, how would China fare if it lost Beijing and its second-largest City?

  51. @Felix Keverich

    South Korea is actually a major military power. This is huge blind spot comrade Keverich. If you’ve looked at South Korea’s orbat, you’ll notice that they possess more modern tanks, more self propelled artillery, more jets, and now even more major naval vessels than practically any other European power outside of Russia. No one really notices this because 1) South Korea is a vassal state of the US and 2) their armed forces don’t have anything to do but be on guard against North Korea.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  52. @Dmitry

    The existance of a certain lag between economic power (investment) and military power is a reasonable concept, but Russia has not been spending on its military at superpower levels for 30 years now. Technologies have a tendency of becoming obsolete, so you would expect Russian military to lose ground in global rankings with each passing year…

    So how much longer do you think this process can take before Russian military is reduced to Indonesia’s level? :) Indonesia is set to overtake Russia in PPP GDP sometime in the next decade.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  53. @Duke of Qin

    But can they penetrate Russian air-defense umbrella, and stop incoming Russian missiles, because this is how I would fight them?

    Comparing SK with European countries means nothing, as these countries are effectively demilitarised. Even so Western Europe appears to have much stronger arms industry, as reflected in their exports.

  54. EldnahYm says:
    @RadicalCenter

    The U.S. is still the major export market for most of the world, especially China, it is still the top destination for capital flight, has long been the place where people park their funds when economic crises hit. There is no reason for this to change, and if it did, it would leave China with a whole lot of worthless Treasury bills. A collapse of the U.S. dollar would be a disaster for all of East Asia. I also see no reason why the U.S. Central Bank will suddenly become subject to the whims of the Chinese, it doesn’t work like that.

    But none of that is going to happen because their is no alternative to the U.S. dollar. No other major consumption led economy with even close to positive demographics. No other large population country with major population centers in both the Pacific and Atlantic. Even in the event of a large global collapse, the countries most impacted would be those most reliant on international trade. That isn’t the U.S..

    The idea of Mexican secessionist movement is a laugh.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  55. notanon says:

    There is absolutely no reason why this process of convergence must stall at any point

    moving all global production to only one region of the world can’t work long-term cos it depends on the other regions having money to buy the produced goods and as production is off-shored the economies of those other regions gradually stagnate and die – Europe, USA, Brazil, Turkey etc – so ultimately China will require their own population to rise up to 1950s USA level middle class to provide the demand.

    now i don’t know what proportion of China’s industry is foreign owned but they’ll want to move to cheaper locations if wages are allowed to increase to the necessary level but i assume most Chinese oligarchs think the same way (?)

    so i think there will come a time when the Chinese government will need to nationalize everything to stop the oligarchs moving which one way or another will throw a spanner in the works.

  56. notanon says:
    @Jason Liu

    Thus far China has not really put forward a competing, universal set of morals, which means it can only play defense (i.e. lose slowly) in the ideological war against liberal democracies.

    i think this is true in principle but the western populations are being replaced by the same people who off-shored western industry and what percentage of the replacements believe in those values?

    so although this will probably still be an issue for a while it’s currently not looking likely to be an issue long-term imo.

    China’s long term problem is how to prevent the banking mafia doing the same thing to them after they wipe out the West.

  57. notanon says:
    @reiner Tor

    It was due to rule of law and corruption and whatever.

    the decision was due to Hungary currently refusing to replace its population on the EU’s orders – the eradication of Europeans being the core purpose of the EU.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  58. notanon says:
    @Felix Keverich

    How come manufacturing powerhouse SK couldn’t develop world class indigenous military technology?

    the US doesn’t want them to

  59. Dmitry says:
    @Felix Keverich

    In military technology and manufacturing, time-lag can be very slow, and also many projects requiring colossal investments initially (which many countries will never make).

    Russia has a century of experience (for example) military aerospace development and manufacturing, which was reaching the highest levels of superpower investment through around 4 decades from around 1950-1990.

    True, the latest planes coming into the air force now, like Su-34, were developed in the 1980s- so new introductions now, are many of them still from that epoch of colossal investment, like harvesting investments from 30 years ago.

    China, by comparison. was mainly only copying licensed replicas of Soviet planes, while in poverty until recently,

    Even now, the most common plane in China’s air force is a copy of MiG-21 – a plane probably which was obsolete by 1970s.

    Currently, for their newer models, they still have to import the jet engines from – guess where? Russia.

  60. notanon says:
    @Rye

    Recent hunter-gatherer/herder ancestry seems to be correlated with martial spirit and athletic inclinations.

    agreed but modern warfare requires those things less and less

    • Replies: @Rye
  61. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    What percentage of America’s population knows what “Deist” means? Has an interest in ethics? Transhumanism? It’s got to be low single digits, if not less. See Karlin’s recent post on “The Idiocy of the Average”.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  62. notanon says:
    @RadicalCenter

    yes, people keep talking about this as if both USA and China are advancing but China are advancing faster and then guessing when they will overtake – whereas what is actually happening is the USA is being deliberately destroyed as part of the banking mafia’s move to a new host.

    the betrayal of the old host is part of the process of moving to the new one.

  63. @notanon

    Perhaps that was the underlying reason, but that’s not what the vote was about, it was about a bunch of other issues.

    • Replies: @Parbes
  64. DFH says:
    @Rye

    Recent hunter-gatherer/herder ancestry seems to be correlated with martial spirit and athletic inclinations

    How’s that working out for the Saudi military?

  65. @Jason Liu

    This is a feature, not bug, if you want China to isolate itself from the rest of the world like me. Face it, the developed world is facing declining populations and immigration inundation. The evil empire, the United States, is blessedly the furthest one along this route. The rest of the growing world, is full of stupid and dangerous people whom the Chinese should rightly be wary of and have nothing to do with and are of no account. 100 years is generous. By 2050, the US already only 62% non-Hispanic white, will be in the mid 40′s even with ZERO immigration legal or otherwise from today because of differential fertility rates. All the prognostications of eternal American hegemony relished by American imperialists rely on the assumption that new Americans, like New Coke, are just as good as Old Americans and thus Demographics are going to save the day. Karlin, like many of us here, are quietly or not so quietly laughing at this idea.

    • Replies: @Jason Liu
  66. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jason Liu

    Well said on likeability.

    But I don’t think China needs to do everything in one go. It will have time to build itself up economically and find its footing culturally over time. This is pretty much what Japan did and what Korea is doing.

    I also agree on China needing to make genuine allies, especially with its East Asian neighbors. If China wants to make a cultural impact, that is where China should look first.

  67. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich

    It’s probably more complicated than that.

    There’s no history of major indigenous Russian military tech developments until the importation of Western European experts and techniques starting with Peter the Great and then more recently in the late 19th and early 20the centuries with the import of US and Western industry and tech.

    I don’t know that much about pre-modern Chinese and Eastern history but they did seem to have some indigenous stuff going on with rocketry weapons and the like.

    You could also make the reverse argument: why isn’t Russia able to be a manufacturing powerhouse in consumer or capital goods if it has world class indigenous military tech? Even in a non-military sector where it has a lot of interest, like energy, Russia has had to use American horizontal fracking tech.

    It’s true that Russia would beat SK in a war, but obviously there are major factors besides military tech at play. The Nazis had more sophisticated military tech during WW2.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  68. This is a good article and I agree with its central point.

    There is absolutely no reason on this Earth why China will not reach the same level of economic development and per capita income as Taiwan or South Korea. Anyone arguing otherwise has to come up with a very compelling argument to support their position.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
    , @Duke of Qin
  69. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @DFH

    I do think Japan is unique.

    But if you look at how Korea has grown its cultural reach I don’t think it is beyond China to accomplish something similar over a longer time period given their communist history.

    Remember, they have Hong Kong which is a fully civilized place full of culture to learn from.

    • Replies: @DFH
  70. neutral says:

    I don’t understand the reason why China needs to build that many ships. If it wants prepare for war with the USA then the only thing it should be planning is how many Americans it can wipe out with nuclear weapons and how many of its own citizens it can save. If it needs these ships to go on far away adventures then does it not already have enough?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  71. Anon[330] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Korea (Germany and Japan) grew under direct US control. There was no way it was allowed to have a strong military or even a credible military adversary. The phony adversary (Russia) was always too contrived by US to be taken seriously by Korea (or Germany or Japan).

  72. utu says:
    @Jason Liu

    Arrogant, thin-skinned, super materialist and filled with hubris

    You can find somewhere in Tocqueville his observations that Americans had a great need to be praised and were rather intolerant to be compared negatively with other nations.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  73. inertial says:

    This is furthermore assuming that there is no serious US economic crisis during this period

    Are we to assume there will be no major economic crisis in China?

    I have to say that I am slowly drifting into the China skeptics camp. Not for any particular reason but due to posts like this. Everyone and his dog are Sinotriumphalists now. Gives me the willies.

  74. Anon[330] • Disclaimer says:

    Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom?

    The Economic war by US against China has started. All we await is an official renaming of the official US enemy from Russia to China (very 1984 with Winston Smith’s job of re-writing all reference copies of the Times being done with a search Russia replace China by Google and FB).

    It may be that the US waited too late and will lose but the battle has started already, and China is at much greater risk than you suggest.

    Right now we have the isolation of the bad guys – Iran, Turkey, Russia. This is not 3 biggish countries joining China, this is a massive trench being dug between Europe and Russia, ME and China and everyone and Turkey.

  75. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:

    There is also geopolitics to consider.

    Assuming Western Europe and Korea/Japan remain American vassals, the alignment of the US-Russia-China would be based on each country’s respective relative power. If China was indeed becoming as powerful as you say, the US and Russia would align together to counterbalance China, and China’s rise and relative power would be mitigated.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  76. inertial says:

    It is only in the past decade that Japan has started generating significant cultural power, a generation after they became rich.

    Wat? If anything, the Japanese cultural power has slightly declined in the past decade.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @RadicalCenter
  77. Jon0815 says:

    AK said:

    Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom?

    If China had nuclear parity with the USA, it would generally be considered a superpower now. C0nversely, it won’t really be a superpower on par with the USA, even with a larger GDP, until it has achieved nuclear parity.

    China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at the latest {2012 article}, and will almost certainly repeat that in nominal terms by the early 2020s.

    From 2012-2017, China’s nominal GDP rose from 53% of the USA’s to 62%. And China’s GDP growth is slowing down. So reaching >100% of the USA’s nominal GDP by 2025 seems optimistic.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  78. @inertial

    How do you know they aren’t just trying to mimick Gospodin Karlin?

  79. Dmitry says:
    @inertial

    Lol AaronB plagiarized some paragraphs from my few weeks old comments, so I have to agree with them.

    Japanese influence is getting larger and larger every year – amongst young people. At least in what I see, teenagers now are much more likely to be under their influence, than people in their 20s (who grew up 10 years ago).

    There’s going to be some kind of wave of American, French, English, Russian, etc, hikikomori growing up, in a few years.

  80. DFH says:
    @Dmitry

    Japanese influence is getting larger and larger every year – amongst young people. At least in what I see, teenagers now are much more likely to be under their influence, than people in their 20s (who grew up 10 years ago).

    Probably linked to the rise in autism

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  81. DFH says:
    @Anonymous

    Yes I probably underrated the reach of Korean culture becauase all of it I have seen or know about is awful.

  82. neutral says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I can’t see how a limited war does not end in nuclear war, if ships start sinking then there is no way that things can be deescalated. The USA is run by fanatics (SJWism, neoliberalism, cuckservatism, these are all cult minded ideologies) they would sooner engulf the world in nuclear fire than admit their society is inferior.

  83. @inertial

    You might be correct, since what everyone believes is often wrong, but unlike the stock exchange, there is no reason to be a contrarian just because too many people believe in it. How many people believe in Sinotriumphalism in some obscure corners of the blogosphere matters very little for China, so if you only base your opinion on too many others thinking that way, then your thinking is wrong. It would be correct if China was a stock and too many people (including your cab driver and hairdresser) were talking about it would be a sure sign that the stock is overbought. But it’s just not a stock.

    I remember having read a few articles back in the mid-1990s at high school about China, and then thinking that they could easily become the next superpower. My thinking was based on the fact that China was growing at rates achieved by other countries in the region previously, and those countries were already pretty developed like Japan (fully developed) or Taiwan and South Korea (approaching developed levels). I didn’t understand or know anything about HBD, but it seemed obvious that China with a similar population would reach similar levels.

    I remember mentioning it in geography class, and everyone was laughing that China was just a worse and less developed version of the USSR. I still remember it, and so far I proved correct.

  84. EldnahYm says:
    @Abelard Lindsey

    There is every reason. Taiwan and South Korea are both homogenous, small countries with most of the people located in a small number of cities. If things get really bad there is at least the possibility of importing the things they most need. For a country of 1.3 billion that is not a possibility. The kinds of problems China has to deal with just to meet people’s food, water, and electricity needs are enormous. Becoming rich from export led trade is a totally different proposition for a nation of 1.3 billion compared to 27 million, or even 127 million in Japan’s case. Taiwan also has an extra advantage in that the Japanese built a lot of stuff there.

    People want to keep comparing China with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and it’s fair up to a point, but you don’t have to look very hard to see in many ways China is not like these places. All of those countries are clean, efficient, low corruption, and relatively high trust. You don’t expect the buildings to fall apart for no reason, or to get intestinal parasites from drinking the water, or to run across Pakistani hitmen like you can in Hunan, or to find large numbers of people living with no electricity or running water, for ordinary people to throw their trash everywhere, or to have children being given fake vaccines, or for the country’s official statistics to all be in a fog of uncertainty in terms of their reliability etc. Some of these problems those other East Asian nations didn’t even have when they were poor.

    China is similar to other East Asian nations in many of its weaknesses, low arable land, poor natural resources(aside from coal and some mineral reserves in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, they have almost nothing), difficult to navigate waterways(building a giant dam in the middle of their best river isn’t helping), and dense, aging populations. But it lacks most of the strengths of those other countries(other than high IQ). The optimistic prediction is that they will grow a little bit over time, will lift some more people out of poverty, and maybe the building quality and pollution in some of the big cities will improve a little. That’s assuming nothing major happens to damage world trade. Reaching per capita levels of Taiwan or South Korea, when economic growth has already slowed down, when fertility is low, where is that economic growth going to come from? Hard to have that much consumption led growth with a declining population. Their manufacturing boom peaked years ago. They’re a natural resource importer. They’re also a poor place for nuclear or renewable energy. Since manufacturing went down much of the new investment is in junk finance. How are they going to grow at such massive levels?

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    , @Sam Haysom
  85. @Dmitry

    Probably the most significant being Japanese loan-words coming into the youth I know: tsundere, waifu, zettai ryoiki, kawaii, moe. Other words like kamikaze are so common to basically be naturalized.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  86. Jounn says:
    @Felix Keverich

    ROK has not developed a significant military for the same reason Canada does not have a significant military. They are not real countries. They are vassals of USG.

  87. @Abelard Lindsey

    The biggest arguments against is demographics and debt. Chinese debt (really private corporate non financial) increased rapidly after 2008. Chinese demographics are likewise around the 1.6 ish range with 17.3 million births (92% of which is Han Chinese or close enough) last year so similar to Western Europe.

    Debt in and of itself isnt bad, and high debts are not a problem as long as you can grow faster than them. It’s only an issue when growth slows down and bad debts pile up.

    The demographic arguement is that only a young and growing population can create economic growth and thus China’s “bad” demographics will stall economic growth.

    On the surface, these arguements sound convincing enough and indeed the China-skeptics make a very convincing case if your thought patterns have been completly dominated and shaped by liberal thinking and it’s heuristic roadblocks.

    The thinking basically goes bad debt > financial crisis > Chinese are eating each other on the streets. If you are a liberal finance junkie who stares at trend lines and curves all day then any negative change in the numbers looks like the end of the world. If you have a longer more historically grounded view of development, youll see regular panics, financial crisis, bank runs, devastating wars, all of which is followed up by more economic growth. NPL loans, bubbles and bursts, are speed bumps compared to the historic forces of gradual productive capital accumulation, increased labor specialization, an intelligent and productive population capable of problem solving. Which view you subscribe to basically depends on if you think an “economy” consists of financial instruments rather than things.

    The demographic situation is more complex and grimmer. Modernity is wrecking China just as it is wrecking every society that isn’t composed of sub 85 IQ morlocks. Though even here there are historic counter arguments. France actually spent the entire 19th century with a slight demographic deficit yet was able to rapidly industrialize and close the gap with Britain during the same time. Ireland wasn’t just demographically stagnant but actually lost huge numbers of people, first to the famine and later to a massive emigration outflow yet was also simultaneously able rapidly develop and likewise gain ground on Britain. The entire argument for the black death as a catalyst of Capitalism in Western Europe relies on the argument that labor scarcity made it more valuable and increased wages and the search for more efficiency. This debate whether China can overcome it’s demographic challenges for growth is basically answered by whether or not you believe the next (smaller) generation of Chinese that is both significantly better nourished and better educated, and all around healthier can be more productive than their parents who were born in between the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. The degree of this productivity differential will determine the continued catch up speed to e industrial West.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  88. EldnahYm says:
    @Anonymous

    Ironically some of the precursors to modern hydraulic fracturing best practices like multilateral drilling were Russian innovations.

  89. AaronB says:
    @Dmitry

    Hikikimori are just intelligent people opting out of the empty culture of making money, hustling, inventing technology, and gaining status that fewer and fewer people can seriously claim is leading anywhere.

    They are all just Bartleby The Sctiveners.

    It is really a return to historical norm – especially for Japan, an East Asian culture. Historically there were always large numbers of people intelligent enough to see through the delusions of the rat race – they would become monks, hermits, wanderers, wandering tradesmen, or take up simple positions as craftsmen that would allow them lots of free time for contemplation.

    Society made space for such people.

    Spinoza was a humble lens grinder – if he was alive today he’d have to work multiple jobs at Starbucks just to scrape by. Einstein was a postal clerk – today, the culture of the USPS is one of overwork and hustle.

    Hikikimori are just a revolt against stupidity and pointless activity. Its entirely natural that this should begin in Japan, because Japan has always passed more quickly through the stages of the disease of modernity, and because East Asia has always had the world’s richest tradition of contemplative idleness. This is a country that produced a medieval classic called Essays In Idleness.

    China is going through a rebellious adolescent phase where it has to strut around like a peacock on the world stage, and Korea on a smaller scale has to prove itself also – Koreans are very insecure.

    Only Japan is ready to begin entering the post-modern phase, and rediscover its East Asian cultural heritage.

    I fully predict we will be seeing the same hikikimori phenomenon in Europe, and a bit later, in America, as more and more people opt out of the culture of pointless work, often only to create technology of ever decreasing significance, and we enter the post-modern phase.

    That will be a return to the historical norm.

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Bliss
    , @iffen
  90. DFH says:
    @AaronB

    Hikikimori are just intelligent people opting out of the empty culture of making money, hustling, inventing technology, and gaining status that fewer and fewer people can seriously claim is leading anywhere.

    Of course, watching childish cartoons is much more spiritually fulfilling than having a family.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @ThatDamnGood
  91. @EldnahYm

    Your argument has a fundamental error mistaking cause and effect in that it assumes the bourgeois behavior of South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore today are historic causes of economic growth rather than social luxuries stemming from them. This is probably because you are a young millennial whose depth of experience amounts to little more than the circle jerking on r/China. All of them were a lot more corrupt, a lot more polluted, and a lot more declasse, and a lot more dog eat dog than you realize if you have lived there in the 90′s, 70′s, or 50′s. It’s not that these problems didn’t exist back then. It’s that there was no internet echo chamber to amplify everything.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  92. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    There’s going to be some kind of wave of American, French, English, Russian, etc, hikikomori growing up, in a few years.

    There already are. They just go by other names, like “incel” or “NEET”. I believe “NEET” is actually originally a Japanese term that is now also used in the US.

  93. Rye says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Zhou was a very long time ago, before the Chinese had much experience with alien races. You must admit that China has not made a good showing against outsiders over the last 2000 years. If Chinese weren’t such profitable tax cattle, they’d probably be gone by now. China’s strength will never be in conventional warfare, Chinese men are not a very martial bunch. The most effective strategy for the Chinese is exporting their women to competitor nations until the competitor populations become as docile and tractable as themselves.

  94. @Rye

    Your reality is very interesting, please continue to live in it.

    • LOL: Talha
  95. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor

    Sebastian Kurz is first and foremost an opportunist, therefore not a reliable ally.

  96. EldnahYm says:
    @Duke of Qin

    “It’s not that these problems didn’t exist back then.”

    The claim was not that the problems didn’t exist, it’s that they didn’t exist to the same extent. The buildings the Japanese built in both China and Taiwan when they occupied them were better than most of the designed to fall apart junk being built in China now. That’s a fact. While you are probably correct that some of the social ills I mentioned are not critical to economic growth(although that’s not really necessary to my argument, if they correlate with economic growth that works just as well for me), some of the things I mentioned actually are sources of inefficiency. Not having the population vaccinated or having higher levels of corruption are not good for economic growth. Again, we’re talking about China reaching per capita levels similar to Taiwan or South Korea, it takes a lot for that to happen.

    Also in the case of Japan specifically I think you’re flat out wrong. Even before you were born these differences were there. Some of these differences regarding China and Japan can go back to the Meiji Restoration. Japan did not have a ruling dynasty selling off portions of its land to Russians just because it was afraid they wouldn’t do the proper honors at court. Or to have military commanders decide not to show up during major battles. You can try the seniority angle all you like(and I don’t read Reddit), but you know perfectly well that China in many ways is a very different place from Japan even in the 1950s. If you think differently, just go to Taiwan there’s plenty of old infrastructure there to prove you wrong.

    Yes, you can make sort of a parallel, in the past Japan say used to make inferior knock-offs of Western products and they over time improved, in their case to the point of high efficiency. But to over-extrapolate and think China is going to be as developed as Taiwan or South Korea, given all of the problems it has, I think is unlikely.

    And no, even in Korea, which was poorer than China, not all of these things were a problem to the same degree. A country as large as China with its location and history inevitably will have to deal with types of problems those other countries will not, or will not to the same degree. China is different, that’s the point of my response to the sentiments in this thread. Note I never claimed Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan never had any problems with corruption, cohesiveness, etc.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Duke of Qin
  97. @EldnahYm

    Singapore had no Chinese descended people, I learned today.

    The lack of zombielike “cohesiveness” is a strength rather than a weakness.

  98. notanon says:

    the idea that economic growth can only come from population growth is propaganda for cheaper labor

    100 people with 10K disposable income = 1000K

    200 people with 5K disposable income = 1000K

    50 people with 20K disposable income = 1000K

    so there’s two ways to get growth – 1) the same number or fewer people with *higher* disposable income (through the running dogs of capitalism sharing out the proceeds of increased productivity rather than keeping it all for themselves) or 2) increase the number of people while maintaining the *same* level of disposable income (which almost never happens cos driving down wages is almost always the reason for increasing the number of people).

  99. @Felix Keverich

    I am sure other people have answered your point, but to take a stab at it myself (not having read the other responses yet):

    1. The Russian economy is twice larger in PPP-adjusted terms (which is what matters most for military power), and this gap was far larger before the early 1990s.

    2. Russian military spending has been consistently higher as a percentage of GDP than Korea’s. $92 billion to $33 billion (SIPRI) in 2014 – with the Russian spending going further, due to lower labor costs and an entirely self-sufficient MIC. There was not a single year, even during the 1990s, when Russian military spending was lower than Korea’s – even in nominal terms!

    3. Soviet military spending was VASTLY higher than South Korean spending. Now to be fair, the vast bulk of it has already depreciated. But some of it is still there (e.g. bomber airframes, a few warships including the Admiral Kuznetsov, etc).

    4. I don’t claim to be any sort of military expert, but I think you massively understate South Korean military power. Almost 700,000 soldiers, huge armored forces (includes the K2 Black Panther, one of the world’s best MBT’s), and about 250 modernized 4th generation fighters. Not enough to be a global superpower, but way more than enough to defend against Best Korea, enough to crush Best Korea if necessary (with mobilization), and enough to even defend against Russia – as long as Russia doesn’t use nukes – if it was to be magically transported to Russia’s borders (there’s 500,000 people in the Korean Army to 350,000 people in Russia’s Ground Forces!).

    Anyhow, FWIW, on the CMP scale, South Korea has approximately a quarter of the military power of Russia.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  100. notanon says:

    i’ve noticed the stealth japanization of youth culture among my own younger relatives – including the females – i wonder if it’s anything to do with less pozzed gender roles?

    (ninja girls sure but at least they look like girls)

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  101. inertial says:
    @Dmitry

    Japanese culture today appears to be produced entirely by and for 11-year old girls, so no wonder it’s relatively more popular among young people. Even then, is it really more popular today among normie kids than during the times of Power Rangers, Tamagotchi, or Pokemon? Or, for that matter, during the time of Godzilla?

    Among adults, Japan has been steadily losing mind share. Certain kinds of Japanese soft cultural power had all but collapsed in the adult world since 20-30 years ago. For example, this cartoon was painfully true back when it came out in 1991. Now, not so much.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Dmitry
  102. @Dmitry

    The idea China is only 20 years behind Japan, is not clear.

    The 20 year rule referred to South Korea.

    Japan, South Korea, and China have all had essentially the same trajectory after passing $2,000 in GDP per capita (1990 dollars), in 1950, 1970, and 1990, respectively.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    , @Dmitry
  103. Rye says:
    @notanon

    Martial spirit also seems to be correlated with the percentage of a nation’s best men who gravitate towards weapons engineering and professional military service. Martial spirit may also correlate with how much punishment a population is willing to take before resigning themselves to subservience. If we ever arrive at a point where the martial characteristics of a population are irrelevant to the war-fighting potential of their nation, then we would probably already be past the point of human relevance in any field.

    • Replies: @notanon
  104. Mr. Hack says:

    Alfred McCoy recently offered a much more nuanced piece here covering the same sort of terrain, but comes up on a totally different conclusion. A conclusion based on a much more detailed examination of the importance of soft power, that China does not yield and most likely never will, in order to rise to the mantle of world hegemon:

    ▼Yet neither China nor any other state seems to have the full imperial complement of attributes to replace the United States as the dominant world leader. Apart from its rising economic and military clout, China, like its sometime ally Russia, has a self-referential culture, non-democratic political structures, and a developing legal system that could deny it some of the key instruments for global leadership.

    https://www.unz.com/article/beijings-bid-for-global-power-in-the-age-of-trump/?highlight=china

    Read the whole thing to get a better appreciation of his arguments. His ideas make sense, unfortunately, Karlin’s fall far short.

  105. @EldnahYm

    People just don’t seem to understand survivorship bias. Almost all of the old buildings in Taiwan built during the Japanese colonial period are gone. The only ones left are expensive government showpieces, the best of the best. Japanese residential real estate from anything prior to the late 80′s was absolute garbage. Piss poor insulation, paper thin walls, it simply wasn’t built to last and indeed was regularly torn down and rebuilt every 2 or 3 decades.

    I don’t disagree with you that the social mores in the late Edo period and the late Qing were very different. Part of the reason being that the Qing government wasn’t even Chinese at all, but a Manchu occupation. Not hard for the government to sell out the country when the government is composed of a parasitic foreign ethnic elite far more scared of native uprisings than giving up territory. Likewise not hard for a post Taiping regional proto warlord to fail to come to the defense of a government where decision making is monopolized by Manchu princes. Where the official Imperial army is filled with Manchu officers who prioritize ethnic loyalty over competence.

    Your arguments of “degrees” of corruption and anti-social behavior doesn’t amount to much without empirical data. It’s really nothing more than opinion cobbled together by Western press headlines.

  106. @Anatoly Karlin

    4. I’m no military expert either, but keep reading the comments – I’ve already outlined my plan to easily pwn SK!

    3. US is going to enjoy a similar advantage over Chinese. As Dmitry has noted, the most common fighter jet in Chinese airforce at the moment is actually a clone of Soviet MiG-21

    2. Figures for Russia’s military spending fluctuate in line with current exchange rates, but it has been around $60 billion for the past decade. Would doubling Korea’s budget produce a major qualitative change? That’s a really important question that I’d like you to adress: you think military power is a direct function of money (“economic power”), so how much more money SK will need to spend to match Russia in military terms?

    1. I picked Korea, because it’s the only Mongoloid country besides China that has a half-decent military. You might have noticed that Mongoloids, despite their numbers and productivity, have rather weak militaries.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  107. @Anatoly Karlin

    Just noticed that your graph shows significant economic downturns for both Japan and South Korea right about where China is. The real test for China is not if can avoid a major economic disruption, it can’t and really no one ever has, but rather how quickly it can recover. South Korea’s dip seems to coincide with the 1997 Asian economic crisis, Japan’s seems to be the late 70′s oil spike.

    • Replies: @notanon
  108. Sycophant says:

    Boring. The future of China hinges on whether it will become an appropriate incubator for the “Jews.” If it is amenable, the country will rise; if it is not, the people will be liquidated as necessary.

    I would suggest more attention be paid to the newer techniques of biological and psionic warfare. Nuclear weapons probably are no longer permitted to use and are carefully monitored by alloanthropic entities.

  109. Bliss says:
    @AaronB

    Einstein was a postal clerk – today, the culture of the USPS is one of overwork and hustle.

    Correction: Einstein was a patent clerk. Big difference.

    It was not a mindless repetitive job like postal clerk. He was examining patents submitted by creative people. It fostered his own creativity in Physics.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  110. @EldnahYm

    The vast majority of posters here really really really want to see the USA fall. For some it’s becuse they humiliated the USSR, for others it’s becuse they really hate Jews and associate the USA with Jewish power and for others like the ones you are getting a lot of flak from they are incensed by male Asians being the low point on the sexual totem pole in the west. Seeing those Asian 6,7, and 8s go with white male 4s and 5s is enraging.

    As a result wish casting is the basis of all these projections. The disaster scenario of course is stalled Chinese growth overwhelmed by demographic issues leading to a fissure in the Chinese state.

  111. @Anonymous

    I think this is completely wrong.

    First, it’s possible to cater to multiple sides. That’s what RT (run by liberals and commies) does by alternating between BLM propaganda (previously Occupy Wall Street) and anti-immigration bromides. Other outlets such as Sputnik (run by Nazis) provide the conspiracy theories.

    RT has market share in the West because there are receptive market segments for it. Namely, the old school, anti-neoliberal and anti-American Left, which was pro-Soviet or at least Soviet apologists during the Cold War. And the Alt-Right and the anti-neoliberal and anti-American and ethnonationalist Right, who view Russia as traditionalist and at least semi-Western.

    China obviously can’t appeal to these market segments. If it went full Maoist again, it might appeal to some old school Leftists. It can’t appeal to the Far Right because it’s not Western.

    China can appeal to the left by adopting the anti-racism shtick. It already does that in its annual whataboutist responses to US human rights accusations anyway. Just have people rant on air about it as well, instead of publishing it in some paper that nobody reads. Perhaps scoop up one of those leftist celebrities, such as Greenwald, Blumenthal, Taibbi.

    As for the Far Right, well, you do realize Anglin is a fan? ;)

    * https://dailystormer.name/are-you-aware-of-chinas-program-to-rate-the-social-value-of-celebrities/
    * https://dailystormer.name/chinese-communists-put-a-million-moslems-in-concentration-camps/

    This is the most hardcore Nazi website on the Internet. And they like China already! (even if for mostly made up reasons).

    China has plenty of nationalists, the sort of guys who made up the term baizuo. Mutually bullyciding SJWs is the road to true friendship of peoples.

    That leaves the neoliberal, woke, and hip hop based cultural mainstream market. It’s not worth trying to appeal to this market, and there’s a great cost to trying to do so, namely spreading this culture domestically.

    But those faggots are the most influential group in the West so it’s still important to target them. Conveniently, China already has good cred with them, so it only needs to reinforce and exploit it. China is more “responsible” than Drumpf, many of them like China’s “progressive” attitude to religion, and they really admire China’s intensive development of green technologies. They really, really like that. I mean really, what’s the contradiction? People who are cool with GloboHomoBezos will be cool with any flavor of technocratic Orwellianism.

    If they had a competent media strategy. Speaking of which, I am offering my services as a media consultant for the very, very low price of $500 per hour.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Jason Liu
    , @neutral
  112. notanon says:
    @Rye

    i’m inclined to agree – as nations get more pozzed i think they’ll gravitate towards poison as their primary war fighting weapon – and that will be that

  113. Malla says:
    @AaronB

    Soft power tends to be negatively correlated with hard power.

    Seems true. Like how we had Shakespeare and the Elizabethan golden age of England before the British Empire. During the British Empire days, we got a lot of great British literature and culture but I doubt if all that could rival the cultural achievements of the Elizabethan age.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  114. @reiner Tor

    I am also not sure to what extent this will work even against Korea.

    It’s not like Saudi Arabia, where a few critical hits on oil export infrastructure can cut out a large chunk of its oil exports until the facilities are repaired. Ports are big, sturdy structures. And South Korea has a lot of them. It is a peninsula that produces 30% of the world’s ships! How many of these long-range standoff missiles does Russia have? When I pressed him on this, I recall that even Martyanov said ~a thousand.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  115. notanon says:
    @Duke of Qin

    when a country is catching up it can accommodate a huge amount of rolling investment capital fueling very rapid growth – when the catching up process gets close to the end that tidal wave of investment no longer has anywhere productive to go and usually ends up causing a massive bubble of some kind – usually property.

    i assume this is inevitable and so what matters is the speed of recovery.

  116. @Mr. Hack

    Good article, but a bit wrong about the Belt and Road initiative which is just half assed over inflated PR to disguise patronage to favoured private and otherwise state owned companies. The biggest caveat is that China wants to be as strong as the United States, it doesn’t want to BE the United States. It doesn’t have the power, attitude, or even the inclination to be the hegemon of a new world order. It does however have the capability and intent to tear apart the current one. What comes afterwards will be likely similar to what came before. A return to 19th century norms rather than late 20th century ones. America’s past strength was built on overwhelming economic security that enabled overwhelming military superiority. People shared America’s values because people always follow the strong like the social primates we are. America’s present, is in a situation where not quite so overwhelming military superiority disguises it’s much smaller economic base. It’s outside influenced is backed primarily by force as states stay pay deference to America because she has the biggest guns, however all the talk of shared values is nothing more than hollow sophistry that will crumble to ashes the moment the 7th fleet is sent to the bottom of the Pacific.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  117. @Felix Keverich

    So how much longer do you think this process can take before Russian military is reduced to Indonesia’s level?

    Probably never.

    For a start, with its ~85 average IQ, it is unlikely that Indonesia will ever master the complex O-Ring technologies needed to create certain classes of modern military equipment.

    This is obviously not an issue for the Northern Mongoloids. Vietnam has a better chance of becoming a great military power than Indonesia if it really wanted to.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  118. @Daniel Chieh

    Or simulated war.

    As Robert Kaplan points out in Asia’s Cauldron, the future of the South China Sea may well be determined by dry calculations of force ratios. (Humane).

    A convincing enough Chinese buildup may well force the Americans to simply fold when it exhausts its ability to further pivot towards East Asia.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  119. @Jon0815

    Nominal GDP converging with PPP-adjusted GDP is a universal phenomenon when countries become richer.

    The past five years are an anomaly in the opposite direction that just means that nominal GDP should soon start expanding much more rapidly than real growth. (It was expanding at 20% per year during 2005-2012).

    • Replies: @Jon0815
  120. @inertial

    I have to say that I am slowly drifting into the China skeptics camp. Not for any particular reason but due to posts like this. Everyone and his dog are Sinotriumphalists now. Gives me the willies.

    This is a vicious smear.

    I was a Sinotriumphalist since I started blogging: http://akarlin.com/2008/08/a-long-wait-at-the-gate-of-delusions/ (2008)

    I mean, now that I look back on it, even my arguments were similar, LOL:

    The key difference is that China is a demographic giant. This means that to match the US in gross GDP (one of the key criteria for superpower status), it need only advance to around a quarter of its per capita development, or Mexico’s level. To match the West (and be double the US), it need only reach Portuguese standards.

    I was deep into the human capital aspect even back then:

    Furthermore, China has experienced very high human capital accumulation, as nine-year schooling has become universal and “during the past decade, China has produced college and university graduates at a significantly faster pace than Korea and Japan did during their fastest-growing periods”; since education is the elixir of growth, its workforce won’t just be assembling gizmos and tightening screws for long.

    • Replies: @inertial
  121. @Anatoly Karlin

    Obviously, that question was meant as a joke. There is only one country in Asia with the potential to match Russia in military power, and it has yet to do so, despite allegedly outspending Russia by 200% in 2018.

    You need to explain this. At which point China’s economic power turns into military power, and they stop buying Russian military equipment?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Kimppis
  122. @notanon

    Yes, in part, but it’s more than that. As wrathofgnon noted, it’s an entire coherent mythology of life so it bypasses wokeness while still being moral and even univeralistic in a way.

    And objectively, a lot of it is artistically and narratively sound while Western media has counterintuitively made “being transgressive” so obligatory to be predictable and it impacts the artistic quality adversely.

  123. @inertial

    This is a good point, unlike your previous one.

    1980s Japan had high stock – would cyberpunk as a genre have even appeared without it? Blade Runner, Neuromancer, Ghost in the Shell – one Japanese, the other two inspired by it.

    • Replies: @E. Harding
  124. @Mr. Hack

    non-democratic political structures

    gay

  125. @Anatoly Karlin

    One of my deepest disappointments with the post Deng leadership is the relatively poor state of the Chinese military today as opposed to what it theoretically could have been. Defense spending as a total proportion of the government budget is down to 5%. The US is spending almost 18% of it’s budget on defense. Even assuming this is modestly underreported, China’s naval and air buildup is still far too modest. If it had spent in proportion to what the US budgets, it would have today a massively overwhelming presence in the Western Pacific. I’m talking 90 guided missile frigates and 60 guided missile destroyers in 15 years massive, bigger than every other country combined massive. 150 new tactical fighter aircraft per year massive.

    As iffy as Putin is on Russian security (Putinsliv and Soviet relict ideology and all that), the Russian deep state still is still keenly paranoid about US intents and maintains robust military and nuclear force relative to it’s economy. The essence of strategy is to do what your enemy doesn’t expect. The Trumpidor and various neolibs/neocons expect China to fold under a protracted economic war. China should massively expand in preparation for a kinetic one and increase it’s nuclear deterrent by an order of magnitude to match.

  126. AaronB says:

    I am tempted to say that within 20 years we will all know definitively one way or the other, but we all know that isn’t true at all.

    If China fails to rise, the Sino-triumphalists will produce reams of statistics and “hard facts” and claim the anticipated rise is imminent…just 5 more years…any day now…it can’t fail…statistics…sheer size of the population….IQ…
    IQ….IQ….IQ….IQ…

    If China does succeed in rising, the Sino-pessimists will claim it’s a temporary blip that’s about to reverse itself any day now…we can’t know if it will last…its only because the West made a mistake and isn’t really attributable to China…its only because China stole Western technology…the essentially docile nature of the Chinese means a revitalized Mongolia will conquer it any day now…Chinese aren’t a martial race…

    Long live the Eternal Debate!

    I’m getting my popcorn.

    • LOL: Talha
  127. Ilya says:
    @Dmitry

    1. China is not a rules-based society — never has been, perhaps never will be. I’m skeptical that a nation can become a superpower if it can’t efficiently coordinate its population.

    2. It’s unclear whether the Chinese can fight. A superpower must have some ability to impose its will militarily on others; a preference to get others to do your dirty work (“cat’s paw”) isn’t enough.

    3. China has no experience with — and more importantly, perhaps no desire for — international leadership. As mentioned, it likely wants to be left alone, but the anarchy of international relations means that one must essentially mobilize or be preyed upon (in which case, see 1 and 2, above).

    4. China’s GDP figures are inaccurate (Li Keqiang said so many times) — a consequence of 1, above.

    5. Perhaps most importantly, nobody likes the Chinese. Anywhere. Hell, even the Hong Kongese hate mainlanders.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Spisarevski
  128. AaronB says:
    @Malla

    Well, the mindset needed to create culture seems opposed to that needed to create hard power, and you gotta take your pick.

    Of course, its not a 100% correlation. Some culture can coexist with hard power, and vice versa.

  129. AaronB says:
    @Bliss

    Thanks for the correction.

  130. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich

    I’m not sure why you are so hell bent on your Russia vs. Korea scenario when there are no hostilities between the 2 countries.

    But keep in mind that Vietnam defeated the much stronger American forces, and Afganistan defeated the much stronger Russia.

    So what’s your point? There are so many factors involved besides your battle simulation you have made.

    One thing you haven’t mentioned is how much wealth from oil and resources Russia gets. Russia like Saudi Arabia can afford to spend much more on armed forces than either Japan or Korea.

    • Replies: @Rich
  131. @Anatoly Karlin

    - Privately-owned tankers will not visit areas with “missile activity”.

    - When in a port, tankers are attached to a pipe, and this is how oil, LNG are offloaded from them. These are choke points. Targeting this infrastructure will cause fires, debris, including the remnants of destroyed tankers, other damage, that cannot be quickly fixed, especially if the missiles keep coming at you. South Korea is a major importer of LNG. There are 8 regasification terminals in the country. LNG is highly flammable. :)

    - A simple Kaliber will suffice IMO. They can be launched from land-based platforms. 1 US Tomahawk missile costs 2 million to produce. Kaliber could be cheaper. It would be a good idea to procure a decent amount of them before going to war with SK.

  132. @Felix Keverich

    That’s a really important question that I’d like you to adress: you think military power is a direct function of money (“economic power”), so how much more money SK will need to spend to match Russia in military terms?

    $100 billion for 20 years (translating into $150 billion in PPP-adjusted terms – broadly equivalent to what Russia spends) should do it.

    First decade focused on building up the MIC. This should be easy to do for the Navy, as South Korea already has 30% of the world’s shipbuilding capacity. Much harder for aerospace where it has much less experience, but I think they’ll manage. It has a breakout nuclear capability; South Korea can start producing the first fission bombs within months, though building it up to Russia’s scale will take a decade.

    Second decade to actually kit out the military with their new toys. It already has one of the world’s best MBT’s. Hardest techs to master will be 4++ generation fighters (not sure we can demand they produce a 5 generation fighter since Su-57 is not in mass production yet and won’t be for some time), SSBNs, and SSNs.

    This would constitute 7% of their GDP. Pretty doable. Israel spent way more before 2000. The US spent 10% during the 1950s.

  133. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:

    Anatoly, you left off this major factor of China’s accent. When the world’s currencies collapse, China will be able to back their currency with gold as they have over 20,000 tons at the low end. At this point they probably have closer to 30,0000 tons.

    https://www.gold-eagle.com/could-china-actually-have-30000-tonnes-gold-reserves

  134. Talha says:
    @Ilya

    #5 is wrong…

    Just as an example, one of the most popular calligraphers around the Muslim world is Chinese:

    http://www.hajinoordeen.com/gallery.html

    I was able to buy one of his works for my mother at a conference a few years back.

    Peace.

  135. @Duke of Qin

    I would do that as well, in particular the nuclear deterrence.

    Still it’s worth noting that there were real considerations that prevented this course of action. (1) The Chinese were genuinely afraid to repeating what they saw as the Soviet’s militarization trap; (2) The PLA became massively corrupt after the Mao period – I assume much of the money lavished on them would have vanished during that period; (3) Premature military buildups when you are not at the technological frontier result in massive but obsolescent armies (e.g. the trap the USSR fell into by the late 1930s) – you’d have many more of those guided missile destroyers and frigates, but they’d be much older and more primitive than they are now.

    In any case, the US allowed China to develop its economic sinews in peace, at least until now, and without crossing its red lines (Taiwan). Perhaps you lucked out with that, but either way, the most catastrophic scenarios can now be excluded.

  136. notanon says:
    @Duke of Qin

    pick a people you have no respect for and imagine they have the same number of ships as the US – would you be worried?

    the US military is being rotted from the inside by SJWs e.g. all the ship collisions – it won’t be long before they are incapable of effective large scale operations.

    (special forces will take longer but eventually even they will succumb)

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  137. Dmitry says:
    @inertial

    There is a lot more pop culture Japanese influence now, than 10 years ago. Their influence just greatly sweeping with teenagers.

    Maybe it’s partly with help of increasing internetization of culture, and infantilization of the generation (which has been contributed also by America with success of Marvel Cinematic Universe over the last decade).

    Some kind of subtle visual culture influence, which is Japanizing the unconscious despite our language barrier with them, saying you don’t have to grow up, and keeping Amiibo Figurines is ultimate of cool and hipster.

    As for different things like business culture prestige, and high culture prestige – these are with smaller audiences. Japanese high culture has been fashionable since the 1880s, but audience size for this is smaller.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  138. @notanon

    It’s not wise to underestimate adversaries. The US had 3.9 million births last year, 49% of that still is non-Hispanic white. The enemy always has a say and there is still plenty of fight left in America. I mean the H-man thought the Slavs were all commie untermensch and we all know how that turned out. Just because I want and fully expect the American pozz imperium to crumble doesn’t mean that once their hegemony dies they will just disappear. America will still be the 2nd strongest military/economic power in the world and that by a fairly significant margin. It just wont be powerful enough where everyone has to do what she says but will still be strong enough that no one can afford to ignore her.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @notanon
    , @gmachine1729
  139. Rdghucfff says:

    South Korea military is controlled by the US as long as they are at war with NK. Did you know that?

  140. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Japanese artists and high culture, were already changing European art history by 1880s.

    Japan won Russo-Japanese War already in 1905, defeating Europe’s largest country, and Europe’s most important rising power.

    By 1930s, Japan are following the same colonial path in Asia, as European great powers, simply a few decades too late.

    In 1940, Mitsubishi Zero – possibly the best fighter plane in the world in this stage of the war.

    There was disruption ending in nuclear bombing by America. But inevitable rapid recovery of Japan surprises not more than equivalent postwar recovery in West Germany.

    Japan’s engineering ability, high cultural contribution and civilized lifestyle – it’s demonstrably known to the world over the century. In China, we have almost an opposite story of modern history. China were a disaster zone and failures until the early 2000s. Some of this attributable to communism of course.

    Now finally, we some sparks potential from them – I think of surprisingly quality of Huawei smartphones. But this potential in limited areas so far (i.e. there’s no vast cultural productivity displayed, unlike Japan which was already a major influence in visual arts in 1880s).

    In military terms, Japan was a major military power by beginning of 20th century, while China has showed no military ability

    -

    So I agree with overall theme. I’m sure China will continue developing and they will become the world’s largest economy by around 2030.

    But there is not evidence yet of a “spark of genius”, – yet this “spark” was evident to observers of Japan over a century ago, and observers of Germany over two centuries ago.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  141. AaronB says:
    @Dmitry

    Its because like I said, the younger generation prefers fantasy – they are beginning to see through the pointlessness of modern life.

    Japanese culture is full of fantasy and has traces and ethos of an older feeling, that life is sort of an illusion.

    What you consider serious adult things – is increasingly being seen as childish nonsense.

    Its the same reason for the growth in popularity of the Marvel universe.

    There is a close connection between fantasy literature and religion – other worlds, magic, etc – so we can see this as a positive step towards religion.

  142. Talha says:
    @Duke of Qin

    The Pozz Imperium…

    Get thy nails done, warrior.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @RadicalCenter
  143. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    That’s pretty funny.

    Strangely formidable, I’m gonna have nightmares.

  144. notanon says:
    @Duke of Qin

    fair enough – my prediction is a complex organism like a modern warship requires rigorously enforced minimum standards at *every* link in the chain and as a result can’t survive becoming SJW-complaint – but time will tell.

  145. @Anatoly Karlin

    I suppose that’s nice. Consider the fact that Chinese have been outspending Russia for a decade, but have yet to catch up. They should have at least mastered all the techs by now. :)

  146. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The problem is that with 51 million people to Russia’s 140+ million, South Korea would run into a ceiling long before it would reach parity with Russia, no matter how well-trained and equipped its soldiers are.

  147. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    RT can appeal to segments of the Left because of the Soviet legacy. Whataboutism isn’t sufficient. That’s just basics, and something everyone does. China would have to liberalize socially in a significant way or revert to Maoism to appeal to some segment of the Left again.

    I’m familiar with Anglin and some of those types applauding some of China’s policies. But that’s qualitatively different from the appeal that Russia has to some of the elements of the Far Right, which goes behind mere support or admiration for certain policies. For example, Richard Spencer supports Russia because he views Russia as “the sole white power in the world”.

    The problem with trying to appeal to “those faggots” is that you run the risk of damaging your domestic population and turning them into “faggots”. It’s hard to firewall everything.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Bliss
  148. inertial says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Yeah, I know you’ve been a legitimate China booster since way back, and that’s fine. What worries me is that everyone had become like you. And I mean not so much bloggers and online commentators (who cares about them) but our wonderful corporate sector.

    These guys have serious herd mentality and stampede hard. The convention wisdom at this moment is that no matter what your company does it has to “get an exposure” to China. This is what they all say right now, from a lowly management consultant to the “visionary” CEO. China is the future, blah, blah, blah. If you try to argue they look at you like you have two heads. Risk? What risk? Everyone knows that China will continue to grow, and grow, and grow, and grow…

    This is what makes me uncomfortable. The parallels with the past instances of disastrous groupthink are obvious. In my mind, this makes it very possible that “something’s going to happen soon.”

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @notanon
    , @Vidi
  149. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    Japan has definately hit on a lot of cultural high marks. But keep in mind that people have always criticized Japan for the same things people are criticizing China on.

    In HBD circles, I most hear praise for Japan only when China is brought up.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  150. @Anonymous

    Not entirely true – even during first contact, European explorers have always mentioned that the Japanese have had an especial appreciation for art and cleanliness. So there’s something special there.

    But yes, many of the modern comments about China are similar to those about Japan. By and large, though, the mass don’t distinguish and kind of just ramble on. But that’s life.

  151. @Anonymous

    It can all work out if they hire Karlin as a media strategist for the current bargain price.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  152. notanon says:
    @inertial

    In my mind, this makes it very possible that “something’s going to happen soon.”

    it will

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

    but in geopolitical terms will it be more than a speed bump?

    • Replies: @inertial
  153. inertial says:
    @notanon

    Perhaps this will happen. I can’t make predictions and neither can anyone else. I can only predict one thing – whatever happens, it’s going to look obvious and inevitable in retrospect.

  154. Mr. Hack says:
    @Duke of Qin

    I don’t think that China is interested in ‘tearing apart’ the current world order. After all, it would lose its largest market for its goods, and what sense is there in destroying the US economy, where it already owns so much of its debt? I do agree with most of the rest of your sentiment:

    …it seems that China should be content to just fill the shoes of a great country content on becoming the world’s undisputed ‘economic hegemon’ minus the imperial trappings of ‘world hegemon’. With China and Russia already jockeying for position in Central Asia, along with Turkey and Iran as smaller bit players, I don’t really see how the US can exert more control over Eurasia in order to avoid Brzezinski’s admonition? The ‘Great Game’ is poised for an interesting contest to the very end.

  155. @Daniel Chieh

    Pot isn’t a basis for national policy, either.

    I feel like this should be a pinned reply to all of AaronB’s comments.

  156. @Duke of Qin

    Though even here there are historic counter arguments. France actually spent the entire 19th century with a slight demographic deficit yet was able to rapidly industrialize and close the gap with Britain during the same time. Ireland wasn’t just demographically stagnant but actually lost huge numbers of people, first to the famine and later to a massive emigration outflow yet was also simultaneously able rapidly develop and likewise gain ground on Britain. The entire argument for the black death as a catalyst of Capitalism in Western Europe relies on the argument that labor scarcity made it more valuable and increased wages and the search for more efficiency.

    This debate whether China can overcome it’s demographic challenges for growth is basically answered by whether or not you believe the next (smaller) generation of Chinese that is both significantly better nourished and better educated, and all around healthier can be more productive than their parents who were born in between the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. The degree of this productivity differential will determine the continued catch up speed to the industrial West.

    This is a solid argument, but one in which you do not need to rely on history on. It’s enough to simply read the data.

    When people talk about demographic strength it should really be about quality instead of quantity. There are reasons to be skeptical about China’s rise – chiefly much more rapid debt build-up compared to SK/Taiwan during their rise – but demographics in terms of age structure is not one of them.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  157. @Anatoly Karlin

    It takes several decades to master some technologies. Now they will probably do most of them faster (if they threw enough money on the problem), but there are so many areas where they have zero experience that I’d expect at least some of those to be flops.

    This is where China has a big advantage over South Korea, it has worked with all types of weapons for several decades.

    The other issue is what AP mentioned, less people means a smaller pool to choose your engineers and officers from, so it’d be a long shot.

    Again, it’s not an issue with China.

    Significantly, not one of the issues we found with South Korea would affect China, or at least not nearly to the extent it affects South Korea.

  158. @Thulean Friend

    Seems the old link is (currently) down. Here’s a back-up:

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w23077

  159. @Duke of Qin

    One of my deepest disappointments with the post Deng leadership is the relatively poor state of the Chinese military today as opposed to what it theoretically could have been. Defense spending as a total proportion of the government budget is down to 5%. The US is spending almost 18% of it’s budget on defense.

    They were obviously waiting for the economy to catch up. Also apparently they wanted to develop a modern weapons system before mass production, and not mass produce obsolete weapons which then would cost a fortune to maintain (thereby slowing down the eventual modernization). This strategy meant that they will theoretically be able to reach parity with the US earlier, but be weaker until it happens.

    But this temporary weakness was a feature, not a bug, because they didn’t want to scare the Americans into taking them too seriously.

  160. @Duke of Qin

    These views of yours, have you expressed them to some Chinese Chinese? What do they think? Someone I know born in China but raised in America was like,

    why doesn’t China just ban all Hollywood movies.

    His rationale was

    banning hollywood movies is like so straightforward. just a cost benefit analysis. do they benefit china? hardly at all. do they harm china? yes it perpetuates racial hegemony

    He was also like,

    Doesn’t China not have enough nukes? They have only in the low hundreds. Shouldn’t they be having ten times more than that, to, like, match what the US and Russia have?

    跟母亲说了他的中国应当全面禁止好莱坞之观点,得以

    书呆子呗

    为回应。

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  161. @Duke of Qin

    那就是说你那么仇美,望美帝国主义,美自由主义土崩瓦解,彻底崩溃掉?崩溃到什么程度才能让你满足?

    • Replies: @Nznz
  162. Nznz says: • Website
    @gmachine1729

    ENGLISH PLEASE OK?????????

  163. @Anatoly Karlin

    Yeah; I also found your “It is only in the past decade that Japan has started generating significant cultural power” remark weird. What progress has Japan made in the world cultural sphere between 2008 and 2018? I thought Japan’s cultural power peaked in the 1990s, following right behind its economic power, arguably peaking with the Tamagotchi.

    • Agree: Hail
  164. @reiner Tor

    India is the world’s fifth largest industrial producer with industrial capabilities superior to any country outside the West,Russia and East Asia and fourth largest spender on armaments.

    It’s economic size is roughly what China’s was 10-15 years ago..

  165. Anon[241] • Disclaimer says:

    Everyone and their dog mocks the idea of “American nation”, since people of America are more diverse than those of Nigeria. (Which is quite shit , if you know your GWAS.) I think a tenth are polytheistic, a sixth are black, a quarter are atheist, a third speak Spanish, and more than half don’t vote (mostly because they do not care about the last unifying myth of the state, “democracy”).

    That being said, it’s been 150 years since US hosted morons of the kind seen in HK or Taiwan. True, the British base in HK has been eliminated, but it was the result of British generalized withering. Taiwan is an American colony and 24-hour away from becoming a full-scale US base if need be. The locals are as impotent and / or seduced as Ukrainians or “liberated Syrians”. They’d rather join EU than their “nation”.

    Despite all the talk about Chinese being communitarian, and anti-individualistic, there is one community which never engages them – their nation. If you kill a million of them next door, they just chew their noodles, as long as they think they will survive.

    And this is why China will never get to Japan level. Fifty years from now, Taiwan and Guantanamo will remain under US occupation. It will be difficult to project anywhere, if Americans control what is supposed to be their territorial waters.

  166. Bliss says:
    @Anonymous

    Richard Spencer supports Russia because he views Russia as “the sole white power in the world”.

    What kind of neo-nazi is Spencer? Hitler and Himmler would be aghast: the Russians are mongrelized untermensch, dummkopf.

    Btw Putin, like Lenin, Yeltsin and many if not most Russians, does looks a bit mixed. Check out his Chinese doppelgänger:

    [MORE]

    And the head of the Russian military is half asian:

    So is the Mayor of Moscow:

    • Replies: @Sean
  167. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Vishnugupta

    Oh brother. Another “India Superpower 2030″ Indian.

    India is not 10-15 years behind China. India is 25IQ points behind China and will need generations to catch up, if it can. When it comes to IQ, Indians lag behind all but the lowest IQ Africans.

    No matter how much Indians spend on its military, it still has one of the weakest armed forces in the world. The only country India will be able to go toe to toe with will be other Indian type races like Bangledesh.

  168. I always thought it to be a good idea to compare today’s rising China to the late 19th century’s rising United States; the U.S. had surpassed Britain in GDP and population in the 1850s, had surpassed China in GDP in the 1880s, and had surpassed the whole British Empire in GDP during WWI. It was certainly the leading economic power in the world by 1920. Yet, aside from some minor gunboat diplomacy throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, its participation in WWI, and the Spanish-American War, the United States was certainly not a world power in 1920 (it didn’t even join the League of Nations!), was not a major attraction for famous emigres, wasn’t even a more important cultural power than Britain, and was arguably less important in world cultural output than either France or Germany (other than maybe in films). That started to change during the 1930s, and by the end of the 1940s, the U.S. was the world’s only other superpower due to a series of accidents highly fortuitous for its status in the world, as well as the world’s undisputed leading cultural power. Just like America, China will, in the next few decades, have its moment. Those claiming the 21st century will be a second American century remind me of the people saying in the late 19th and early 20th centuries that the 20th century will be a British century.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  169. @Vishnugupta

    with industrial capabilities superior to any country outside the West,Russia and East Asia

    superior industrial capabilities versus Antarctica, checkmate

  170. @Anonymous

    You have demonstrated your own rather low IQ with this post.

    India is in terms of GDP per capita roughly where China was 10-15 years ago.

    India is the world’s fifth largest industrial producer.

    India is in terms of overall technological ability is superior to any country outside the West,Russia and East Asia.

    Those are irrefutable facts.

    Only a low IQ dimwit will describe a country with nuclear weapons and ICBMs,the world’s fourth largest Air Force and a million man army as one of the weakest in the world.

  171. anonymous[289] • Disclaimer says:

    nominal terms (2-3x that of the United States)

    I think this should be evaluated carefully because the difference between 2 or 3-times is huge in terms of global influence.

    In 2040 the Chinese population: 1.45 billion; US population: 400 million.

    In 2017, South Korea GDP per capita in nominal terms was exactly 50% of US GDP per capita.

    If in 2040, China can manage to get to a GDP per capita of 50% of the then US GDP per capita, the Chinese economy will be 1.81 times larger than the US economy.

    China has some advantages and also quite a few disadvantages in its way compared to South Korea.
    China’s biggest advantage is simply that America won’t be as strong in the future as it was before. In 2040, America will not be as economically efficient as it was 20 years before due to a more diverse population. However, California is minority-majority and it is only a moderate drag on the economy in overall terms. Due to a more diverse population, I think America will be a rich country rather than a very rich country in 2040.

    I’m not a China skeptic. I’m Chinese and work in the financial economy so I want to see success. However, I must admit flaws and would rather focus on how to eliminate or ameliorate the flaws rather than premature victory.

    Underinvestment in human capital – Unlike South Korea or Taiwan, at this stage the under investment in childhood nutrition and education in rural areas is worse and the results from PISA of rural Chinese children shows it. There’s still malnutrition in some parts of China because the welfare state for even the poorest areas is very feeble.

    Urbanized Chinese males are laggards compared to East Asian peers – Something that seems entirely unnoticed even in the HBD sphere is how unusually bad urbanized Chinese males are doing in the advanced economy. In finance and law, Chinese women are making a better show than their East Asian peers. In venture capital, at the partner level, women in China are almost twice as represented than women in Silicon Valley. In one big investment firm’s legal department I encountered 28 women out of a department of 30. If urbanized Chinese males don’t contribute as much as their East Asian peers to the advanced economy, will it have an ultimate effect on GDP?

    Aging population – Although the aging population problem is finally recognized, there’s not much 2nd child incentives can do at this point considering the cost of raising a kid in a Chinese city and apartment ownership. China is 20 years behind South Korea but only 5 years younger.

    Xinjiang – This is the most minor problem in terms of economic damage but pacification of the Uighurs is proving to be very expensive and a huge distraction that will get worse when Syria is finally liberated and the surviving 10,000 or more Uighurs fighters and their families try to come back home. I hope enlightenment seizes hold across China and also Russia and finally there can be a conversation about getting rid of problem border regions and the minorities that can’t be assimilated living in them by granting independence. With China that means southwest Xinjiang and Russia it’s the NCFD.

  172. @Vishnugupta

    I agree that India is not totally insignificant. But I think my original point stands: India is not where it should be in terms of military power based on its aggregate GDP and military spending data.

    It doesn’t mean that the India-hating squad is fully correct. But it’s not going to catch up with China in the foreseeable future.

  173. anonymous[281] • Disclaimer says:
    @Vishnugupta

    India currently has a GDP per capita where China was in 2005-06. But India doesn’t grow as fast as China due to lower growth rate and currency depreciation (while the RMB appreciated). Taking into account India’s growth in the last 10 years, expected currency depreciation, and inflation, India should reach China’s current level sometime between 2045-50.

  174. @anonymous

    What do you think is the possibility of very draconian policies to reverse birthrate declines being implemented in China.

    I think everyone recognizes the need for birthrates of roughly 2.1 and China can see Japan’s stagnation in large part due to falling birthrates so do you think policies like extremely high penalties for couples who don’t have 2 or more Children after say 7 years of marriage ( With exceptions for medical conditions)comparable to those imposed on couples that had more that one child at the height of China’s one child policy likely?

    • Replies: @anonymous
  175. Sean says:

    By the 2040s, China will have by far the world’s largest economy in both PPP-adjusted and nominal terms (2-3x that of the United States), its most powerful military, and comparable navalpower and elite scientific production.

    Yes, if the US does not use military force after economic measures fail to slow China’s growth.

    As with my standard “futuristic” projections, all this assumes there are no radical discontinuities in our world – no machine superintelligence,

    Dennett expects that machine super intelligence will be a good 50 years away, but he only started saying it was possible after reading Pedro Domingos’s 2015 book. China will be in a position spend the money necessary to to create machine superintelligence by 2040, I expect there will not be much of anything by 2050.

    Any views of Verzilov’s sudden heath problem days after being in police custody.He disrupted the World Cup and Putin loves his sport (promoting Ice his Hockey team members ect).

  176. anonymous[281] • Disclaimer says:
    @Duke of Qin

    increase it’s nuclear deterrent by an order of magnitude to match.

    Why? What does 1,000 nukes v. 100 nukes do in terms of deterrent effect?

    Defense spending as a total proportion of the government budget is down to 5%.

    Why does China need to spend 4% of GDP on defense rather than the current 2%? Does the Chinese military have global responsibilities like the US? No, it just needs to be concerned with the Pacific (and currently an inexplicably small presence of 2-3 divisions facing India). 2% of GDP is more than adequate.

    Have you considered how much more economically weaker China would be if an additional 2% of GDP went to the military rather than the high speed rail network and other infrastructure over the last 3 decades? Do you think China with a larger military and a GDP per capita of $6,000 is stronger than the currently smaller Chinese military with a GDP per capita of $9,000?

    Have you at all factored in how much more secure China is now since the Maidan in Kiev and its consequences have made it impossible to blockade China because Russia and China are now firm allies? Military spending should actually be adjusted downward to 1.5% of GDP since the Maidan.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @random rand
  177. anonymous[281] • Disclaimer says:
    @Vishnugupta

    I can’t imagine how that would be practical. The power of the state over people’s lives has dwindled considerably.

  178. Sean says:
    @Bliss

    First Sea Lord Jackie Fisher

  179. @anonymous

    You can’t just rely on someone else to do the fighting for you.

    And simply by providing the appearance of weakness, you will invite further aggression. This misses also the valuable material science knowledge, etc. gained from buildup of a MIC.

    This is a terrible mentality.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  180. anonymous[243] • Disclaimer says:

    Your comment doesn’t sound like it has any analysis behind it. I have 3 questions for you.

    You can’t just rely on someone else to do the fighting for you.

    Russia doesn’t need to join in any fight with the US, it will be instrumental if it keeps on shipping oil while the US blockades the world’s sea lanes.

    Why not support other countries so that they can do fighting instead of you? In particular, this means supporting Iran. China will take over a lot of the financial burden of Syria reconstruction as announced in July to allow Iran to concentrate on building its defenses.

    misses also the valuable material science knowledge, etc. gained from buildup of a MIC

    What do you think is better: a larger military and MIC with a GDP per capita of $6,000 or the current military and MIC with a GDP per capita of $9,000? Money diverted not just to the MIC but a huge military payroll and pensions sucks up economic development. Imagine in what shape the economy would be in currently after 30 years of military spending diverted from railway construction. Having a bigger economy funds mega science projects and more mundane research and development a lot more than high levels of spending on the MIC. And this doesn’t even address how much weaker of a position economically and geopolitically China would be with a lower GDP per capita at this point. Too many people who advocate for high military spending seem to essentially have the mentality that money grows on trees and is not a limited resource.

    simply by providing the appearance of weakness, you will invite further aggression.

    It is simplistic to say everything short of acting tough right now is a sign of weakness and doesn’t take into account the specific context of China’s rapid potential and the long term path to acquiring truly impervious strength. If military spending were reduced to 1.5% from 2%, the slowdown would be noted and I suppose some in US strategic circles would regard it as a sign of a less confrontational stance, the success of US pressure, and China’s underlying weakness. I’m not certain though it would be interpreted as such in the mainstream US strategic view as China’s economic clout and Belt and Road outreach would continue and US strategic circles would feel threatened by the vitality of expansion of non-military sphere of influence.

    And then your view doesn’t take into account the benefit of China avoiding military confrontation at such a weak, vulnerable stage when with just 15-20 more years of tranquility, China will be able to reach a developed stage. At almost 2-times the size of the US economy, it will be very hard for the US to consider a strategy to confront China. That’s true strength and it is risked by the current stupidity in the South China Sea.

    Have you considered how prematurely showing strength in military spending and confrontation will result in an early response from the US that could cripple China’s ability to clear the final 15-20 years before becoming nearly economically impervious?

  181. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Vishnugupta

    So you are bragging that India has more technology than Africa and South America? Congratulations…I guess.

    The FACT is that India still can’t get its population to poop in toilets. Anyone who has been to South America and most parts of Africa will tell you that these places feel much more civilized than India. So when you say that India is more technologically advanced, I am not buying it.

    As far as the Indian military, when has India ever successfully won a war against a non-Indian country?

    Indians are the opposite of a martial people, and no matter how many planes you buy they won’t do squat so long as you have Indians piloting them.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  182. Ilya says:

    Next few decades:

    US: Hegemon whose full-spectrum dominance will continue to decline with continued “browning”.
    Russia: Sufficient talent and a strong enough streak of the barbarian to play spoiler, nothing more.
    China: Somewhere between the US and Russia.

    Speculatively, once it feels sufficiently threatened, will the US attempt some sort of destabilization of Xinjiang via some Central Asian vector?

    • Replies: @Tulip
  183. Jason Liu says:
    @Duke of Qin

    Isolationism means China will be surrounded by a hostile, westernized world. It will be outnumbered and pressured from every direction, and increases the chance of western values seeping into China. It’s not a tenable position.

    China might not be interested in a global war of ideology, but ideological war is interested in China. Fight back or the world’s stupid, dangerous people will be at our throats.

    • Replies: @notanon
  184. @anonymous

    Why not support other countries so that they can do fighting instead of you?

    Because you’re assuming that they are either 1)stupid, or 2)profoundly belligerent in a fashion that’ll completely exclude you from the need to commit to violence. Neither is going to work in the long run, and at best, actually makes you a hostage of forces that you are employing to do violence for you. This is in fact, the exact fall of the Song by relying on “allies” and you’re committing the same mistake.

    What do you think is better: a larger military and MIC with a GDP per capita of $6,000 or the current military and MIC with a GDP per capita of $9,000?

    Not being destroyed. And while its always a balance between butter and guns, leaving oneself completely vulnerable results in enormous political weaknesses with economic consequences in itself, not to mention a lack of ability to mature the military later. Money doesn’t grow on trees; but neither does military experience. Every mistake not made early in peacetime during practice is a mistake that will be made when under attack, with far greater consequences.

    And then your view doesn’t take into account the benefit of China avoiding military confrontation at such a weak, vulnerable stage when with just 15-20 more years of tranquility, China will be able to reach a developed stage.

    This just demonstrates a near total lack of awareness of how the Western MIC works. Chinese behavior, especially reduction of military strength, is basically irrelevant to whether aggression will happen or not(witness Libya). Wars happen when it benefits the MIC, and against anyone who is vulnerable enough to suffer it. The only realistic way is to make the “simulated war” so costly that it will not be attempted.

    The “early response” in some fashion is coming whether you want it or not, whether being “nearly economically impervious” happens or not. Hostility is inelastic and will only increase. And all of the money won’t solve the lack of experience, the weaknesses in military-specific technology, and coordination.

    This entire application of “true strategy” is projecting an essentially timid mentality upon the US. This is not how it works at all. Aggression happens as soon as it is possible, not as a result of calculations; it is the default stance – lack of aggression only happens when forced to back down due to fear of losses. You assume that pacifism is the default stance of the US. I’d say its “profoundly questionable” but that’s too generous. Its completely against everything we know at present.

    Again, this is a terrible mentality, made even more terrible because its essentially projecting a certain Chinese shyness, almost cowardice, upon the world.Its terrifyingly self-deceptive.

  185. Jason Liu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Mutually bullyciding SJWs is the road to true friendship of peoples.

    Greatest quote

  186. @E. Harding

    Yes, Japan has been a cultural influence on the West going back to the 1860s when Hokusai’s prints wowed Monet (his wife started wearing a kimono), Degas and de Toulouse-Lautrec. About the only notable recent Chinese artist I am aware of is Ai Weiwei and that is mostly because the authorities keep harassing him.

    http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20150409-the-wave-that-swept-the-world

  187. neutral says:
    @Vishnugupta

    India has too many inferior people, the occasional clever Indian with some traces of Aryan blood is heavily outnumbered by the Dravidians. So while I don’t think India is at the level of Sub Saharan Africa, I don’t see it as equal to east Asia.

  188. notanon says:
    @E. Harding

    What progress has Japan made in the world cultural sphere between 2008 and 2018?

    big among the youth (Korea is as well), girls too (if not more so), which is interesting

    looking at it from the outside i think it’s partly a reaction to the poz with one half of the kids being sucked into twerkworld and the other half trying to escape.

    (this is actually the most important cultural power for everyone not just China – kid’s entertainment – that hasn’t been poisoned by the US media – which is easy, just reskin old school Disney)

  189. neutral says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Speaking of which, I am offering my services as a media consultant for the very, very low price of $500 per hour.

    What media narratives and strategies would you undertake if you ran RT?

    • Replies: @Kimppis
  190. notanon says:
    @Vishnugupta

    the banking mafia are destroying the West and moving to China (imo) but once (if) that is done and they’re settled in China then they’ll get to work destroying China while building up their next host – which will probably be India – they only want/need one hegemon at a time to be their enforcer and debt collector.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  191. @Rye

    Yes, the Chinese sure embarrassed themselves in the Korean conflict….not.

  192. @Daniel Chieh

    Military spending has multiplicative effects, so I wouldn’t just accept the claim that a higher (but still below 5% of GDP) military spending would automatically translate into lower growth.

  193. Kimppis says:
    @Felix Keverich

    People keep repeating how Russia’s conventional military power is still superior to that of China, but I’m really not convinced that is the case anymore. I’d say they’re overall very comparable.

    In certain areas China is quite clearly ahead of Russia, like the surface fleet, and they even have twice as many modern diesel subs. China might even have more “very modern” MBTs (it can be argued that the upgraded Type 96s, T-72s and T-80s are also modern). The PLA has probably close to 1000 Type 99 tanks. How many T-90s are operational in Russia? Maybe 500? That’s just one “surprising” example.

    You are really exaggerating China’s dependence on Russian military technology.

    So when will they stop buying Russian military equipment? Within the next 5-10 years. They might order some additional Su-35s and S-400s, because it would make a lot of sense, but that will be pretty much be it.

    It’s also extremely misleading to say that the MiG-21 (J-7) is the most numerous Chinese fighter. The PLAAF might have more Flankers combined already, if you include all the different variants, it’s very close.

    But in any case, and even more importantly, China actually has slightly more 4th generation fighters in service than Russia. Not to mention those 20-30 5th gen J-20s vs. Russia’s 0. At this rate, in the worst case scenario (for Russia), that gap could increase to something like 200-300 (and I’m not even including some potential surprises, like the J-31 program) vs. 20-50 Su-57s by the mid-2020s. (I guess technically that’s not an increase when the current Russian total is 0, and you could even include those 150-200 Su-35s for Russia, but whatever, the point is clear.)

    Also, hundreds of those 4th gen fighters are actually equipped with Chinese engines (they mostly have issues with single engine J-10s), as I’ve mentioned previously. China’s engine technology is just a meme at this point.

    The only reason why some of those J-7s are still in service is the very simple fact that the Chinese fighter fleet is like 2 times larger than Russia’s and the second largest in the world.

  194. Anonymous[851] • Disclaimer says:
    @notanon

    I don’t believe your conspiracy theory. But I also don’t think the elites would find India a suitable platform to carry on their deeds if it were true.

    India is a literal shit hole and Indians are too xenophobic to allow foreign elites to move into their country and hit up on their women.

  195. Anonymous[851] • Disclaimer says:
    @Rye

    Hmmm. I seem to recall a bunch of rice farmers in Vietnam driving America out of their country.

    The man in the black pajama is a worthy fucking adversary.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @Rye
  196. Jon0815 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Nominal GDP converging with PPP-adjusted GDP is a universal phenomenon when countries become richer.

    The past five years are an anomaly in the opposite direction that just means that nominal GDP should soon start expanding much more rapidly than real growth. (It was expanding at 20% per year during 2005-2012).

    Yes, I’ve made this point myself in noting that Russia doesn’t need faster real GDP growth than the UK to overtake the UK in nominal GDP. However, I think a 7-year time frame for China overtaking the USA in nominal GDP is probably unrealistic. While convergence between nominal and PPP-adjusted GDP is inevitable, it happens faster when real GDP growth is faster . A 20% annual increase in nominal GDP was possible when China’s real GDP growth was 12%, but those days are over. Also, I think that while the Sino-skeptics predicting a hard economic landing, will probably continue to be wrong, the chances of them being proven right within the next 7 years are nontrivial.

  197. Kimppis says:
    @neutral

    I’d really like to know this as well.

    Speaking of RT: https://www.rt.com/news/438339-scripal-uk-suspects-rt-interview/

    Reiner Tor is certainly going to be interested.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  198. @Kimppis

    Felix is an interesting contrast to the nationalistic Chinese commentators here. The Chinese stress the need not to underestimate the adversaries and rivals, while you cannot have an enemy or potential enemy or potential rival of Russia who is not dismissed by Felix. Be it Ukraine, China, South Korea, the USA, or Western Europeans, he thinks they are all massively inferior to Russia and Russia could easily handle each of them. This is not the smartest mindset. Felix should learn from Anatoly or the nationalists of the Chinese persuasion here.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  199. notanon says:
    @Jason Liu

    Isolationism means China will be surrounded by a hostile, westernized world.

    the world is getting less westernized as Europe and the US crumble and countries which used to pay lip service to western values for aid money will stop bothering.

    in the most likely (imo) scenario (i.e. assuming America crumbles without a big war between US vs China) China’s main external concern will be trying to maintain supply of raw materials from a much more Islamized world.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  200. @Kimppis

    Certainly. I actually linked to an article about Putin mentioning that they found the guys.

  201. @Anonymous

    Indians are too xenophobic to allow foreign elites to move into their country and hit up on their women.

    Good for the Indians. I say, power to them.

  202. Tulip says:
    @Ilya

    You don’t seriously believe that the US isn’t involved in the destabilization of Xinjiang now?

  203. @Anonymous

    The fact is that you made a factually incorrect post which I refuted.

    As for the rest of your post…

    ‘the FACT is that India still can’t get its population to poop in toilets…’

    The FACT is that regular bathing slowly caught on in the west towards the end of the 19th century(Why do you think so many perished in the Black death in Western Europe relative to other densely populated parts of Eurasia or indeed places like Finland with their Sauna culture?..Bathing is good for you is a very late 19th/early 20th century discovery for the average W European Country.What of it?

    ‘…So when you say that India is more technologically advanced, I am not buying it.’

    What makes you think I have the remotest interest in convincing you in anything?A country which can send space probes to Mars,design build and launch its own GPS satellites,build its own helicopters,nuclear submarines,aircraft carriers,destroyers,supercomputers etc etc is usually considered by most people with a three digit IQ to have superior technological capability than ones that can’t even make their own motorcycles or basic cargo ships.

    ‘when has India ever successfully won a war against a non-Indian country?’

    Portugal.Ever wonder how Goa is part of India?
    Other than that we ‘Liberated’ basically annexed Sikkim in the 1970s and the Chinese could do nothing to stop that back then…

    Historically(Ancient History Wise) the Chola Empire had colonies in S E Asia and the Mauryan Empire ruled northern Afghanistan.

    ‘Indians are the opposite of a martial people…’

    Yeah sure which is why we could fight Muslins for 1000+ years and not convert to an Abrahamic faith unlike your ancestors who meekly converted to Christianity(We are the only country with the original polytheistic religion still going strong in all Eurasia) and historically neither the Persians under Achamanid,Greeks under Alexander,Arabs under the caliphate or Mongols under the Khanate could conquer despite numerous(50+) attempts the core of Indian civilization(The Gangetic plains).

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Beckow
    , @Anonymous
  204. notanon says:
    @Anonymous

    i agree but i think their behavior is more instinctive than rational

  205. @Vishnugupta

    I think there’s both too much India-bashing and unhinged Indian commentators here in this thread.

    India is going to be a greater power, though constantly behind China, in the future. They will probably be behind the US and perhaps even Russia in military strength (especially counting nukes), but it’s not a big deal. No one will be able to conquer them, and they won’t be much interested in conquering anyone. They will be good enough that their upper class will have it jolly good, but probably their average income level will stay much lower than in Europe.

    No one is interested in how big or small Indian cocks are, so let’s just stop the topic.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Vishnugupta
  206. notanon says:

    i really don’t get analysis founded on the premise that US elites are acting on the basis of US national interest when everyone knows they off-shored the US manufacturing base to China – you don’t put all your assets in a country you intend to fight.

    the only way the US will end up fighting China is if 1) there’s an internal power struggle and a more nationalist minded elite comes to power or 2) if/when China is forced to stop the current US elite moving their factories from China to somewhere cheaper.

  207. Talha says:
    @reiner Tor

    Agree with basically every point.

    Peace.

  208. @reiner Tor

    My medium term (15+ year) prediction for India basically matches what you are stating and I do not intend to hazard a guess as to the standing of India in 2050,2100 or some other absurdly long time frame. The variables are too many.A chest thumping right wing Hindu nationalist I certainly am not.

    My comments have been entirely reactive to this particularly odious commentator so it would be unfair to hold me responsible for this regrettable exchange of acerbic views.Though mine are still mostly grounded in facts while his are primarily based on opinions.

  209. @Dmitry

    Japanese artists and high culture, were already changing European art history by 1880s.

    But China influenced Europe more in the 18th century. The Enlightenment thinkers admired its system of government, which was in many ways more laissez-faire than the contemporary order in Europe. There was an early version of CafePress – (very rich) Europeans would sent their porcelain designs to China, the Chinese would produce it, and ship it back, all within a year. (If you’re ever in Oxford, the Ashmolean Museum has a wonderful exposition on this trade).

    It was then that the key divergence began. China actually slipped in not only relative, but absolute terms during the 19th century, whereas Japan continued ploughing ahead, rapidly building up its human capital during the 18-19th centuries (literacy was at 40% by mid-19th century IIRC), so it was in a much better position to be competitive once it opened up.

    All of this – a 20 year lead of South Korea due to effects of Maoism, and a 40 year lead by Japan due to that plus “deeper” history – is perfectly consistent with my arguments.

    But this potential in limited areas so far (i.e. there’s no vast cultural productivity displayed, unlike Japan which was already a major influence in visual arts in 1880s).

    Worth noting that the Japanese themselves were quite pessimistic about their potential during that period:

    Wealthy we do not at all think [Japan] will ever become: the advantages con­ferred by nature, with the exception of climate, and the love of indolence and pleasure of the people themselves, forbid it. The Japanese are a happy race, and being content with little, are not likely to achieve much. – Japan Herald, 9 April 1881

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    , @AaronB
  210. @E. Harding

    I might have been overly influenced by Dmitry on this issue in recent months, instead of assessing it independently.

    He is correct that Japanese culture in Russia specifically has never been stronger.

    However, come to think of it, its peak in the US came much earlier. And I don’t think it has influenced Europe (or Britain, at any rate) much at all.

    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
  211. iffen says:
    @AaronB

    It is really a return to historical norm

    We were kicked out of the Garden and not allowed back in, ever.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  212. @anonymous

    There’s scant good evidence that military spending below 10% of GDP has any negative economic effects, let alone 5% of GDP.

    The US spent 10% of its GDP on the military in the 1950s, a period of very high growth.

    I am not advocating that sort of hardcore militarization – I think letting spending as a share of GDP drift slowly from 2% to 3% over the next couple of decades would be reasonable – but it’s not this ruinous issue that you are making it out to be.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    , @anonymous
  213. @Kimppis

    The PLA has probably close to 1000 Type 99 tanks. How many T-90s are operational in Russia? Maybe 500? That’s just one “surprising” example.

    It’s also extremely misleading to say that the MiG-21 (J-7) is the most numerous Chinese fighter. The PLAAF might have more Flankers combined already, if you include all the different variants, it’s very close.

    Chinese “Flankers” and tanks may not be equivalent to their Russian counterparts. They have never been tested in combat or exported anywhere, so how do we know if they are any good. How do we know if Chinese engines are good? It could be that “Flankers” equipped with Chinese engines are kept in storage, the ones that actually fly are using Russian engines ;)

    Lack of exports from China to me is particularly noteworthy: is this because they fear upsetting Russia or because there are no buyers for Chinese crap?

  214. @reiner Tor

    Sinotrimph 101 is riddled with magic thinking, any inconveniences are dismissed by Karlin out of hand – how is this smart? I just want to bring some balance into this conversation mainly by poking holes in Karlin’s vision.

  215. Nznz says: • Website

    What are the odds that China will succumb to cultural Westernization, given the enormous number of Chinese tourists and students abroad, plus while Facebook, Netflix, Twitter, Wikipedia, and YouTube are banned in China, getting around them is relatively easy to get around if you have a VPN.

    • Replies: @notanon
  216. @Anatoly Karlin

    You realise that American age structrure and structure of government spending was very different during 1950s? Social security accounted for 6.46% of the budget in 1955. Today Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid account for 62% of the federal budget spending is their share is projected to grow.

    A country like South Korea won’t be able to significantly increase its military spending without gutting its pension programs or exploding its debt. I’m not sure how pensions work in China, but they will probably have to rely on debt as well.

    East Asia is radidly aging and China will need to figure out what to do about their growing army of old people – most likely developing welfare state will take priority over military build-up.

    • Replies: @Talha
  217. Talha says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Or they will conquer the world with a massive army of aged kung-fu masters!!!

    C’mon, you all know we’ve been waiting for this!

    Resistance is KUNG FUTILE!!!

    Peace.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  218. notanon says:
    @Nznz

    What are the odds that China will succumb to cultural Westernization

    westernization in the sense of liberal democracy i’d say the odds of that are declining rapidly as the western nations decay

    westernization in terms of poz i’d say the odds are quite high unless they create an alternative – trying to seal themselves off from US media is a good idea but probably not enough for the reasons you mention – in particular China / Russia etc need their own (oldschool) Disney to set their youngsters on the right path before they eventually come into contact with the poz.

    (this would also be good for any surviving enclaves of homeschooling sanity left in the west)

  219. Beckow says:
    @Vishnugupta

    …regular bathing slowly caught on in the west towards the end of the 19th century

    That is an incorrect analogy to India’s hygiene issues today. What Europe had was increasingly decent plumbing – you know, the pipes in the ground. And pleasant weather and geography. India lacks that; it is a function of India’s geography: too hot, humid, insects-infested, materials go to rot there. Extreme over-crowding doesn’t help, real infrastructure becomes impossible in those circumstances.

    It is unlikely that the same gradual improvements will take place in India. Geography matters, (I keep saying the obvious), and India is unlucky. So is sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Asia and Middle East. Geography will always limit those areas. There is a reason why mankind over time developed in the more pleasant geographic regions. There is also a reason why most Indians would give their right hand to escape India and move elsewhere. My selfish view is that in a who-whom world, our priority will have to be to keep them out. Comparing plumbing is really just a distraction.

    Beating Portugal? Good, somebody had to do it.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  220. Mr. Hack says:

    I don’t know why, but Chinese cultural norms haven’t yet quite reached the fabled heights of other Asian groups? Take the Japanese for instance, I think that their culture is still more greatly appreciated in the West than Chinese. As great a Chinese culinary arts go (and I greatly appreciate Peking Duck) it still seems to take a backseat today to Thai cooking. Which would you rather go to, P.F.Changs, or to any of the ubiquitous Thai restaurants dotting the landcape of most any large U.S. urban center? America is a great country, there’s room for everybody though…

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  221. @Anatoly Karlin

    The Enlightenment thinkers admired its system of government, which was in many ways more laissez-faire than the contemporary order in Europe.

    There might have been a bit of vanity mixed in there. It was, IIRC, Tocqueville who remarked that the Philosophes loved the Chinese way of doing things precisely because they envisioned a society where they were at/near the top.

  222. @EldnahYm

    Glad you are relatively optimistic in these respects.

    As for Mexican secession being laughable, that may depend in part on how much free stuff the less-assimilated Mexicans here think they can still get by remaining nominally part of the USA. It’s not reasonable to expect that the fed and State governments will be able to sustain the current level of welfare spending. And that’s without a substantial increase in the interest that we are paying on the fed and state gov debts, which also seems likely.

    As for the us currency losing its reserve status, I’m not predicting that it will be supplanted, but at first just supplemented and shunted our of its primary position. A more likely change in the shorter-them would be the adoption of a basket of major currencies, surely including the Yuan and most likely the Euro and the Ruble (if there is still a meaningful Euro as Europe descends into Islamism and ongoing civil strife).

    China, Russia, and others have switched some contracts / transactions to being settled in their own currencies, and the trend will likely intensify. This will have an effect on our US dollar and our ability to print limitless amounts of it, untethered to any tangible good or to any increase in production of goods and services, to fund wars and domestic programs.

  223. @E. Harding

    Just like America, China will, in the next few decades, have its moment. Those claiming the 21st century will be a second American century remind me of the people saying in the late 19th and early 20th centuries that the 20th century will be a British century.

    Those claiming that China in 21st century will be like America in 20th century are ignoring the fact that Chinese are not Anglos. Heck, they are not even white.

    Just like America, China will, in the next few decades, have its moment.

    And you can bet Chinese will let this moment pass by them, because when come down to it, Chinese are not white. Expecting Chinese people to stop behaving like Chinese and start acting like Anglos upon attaining a certain level of GDP strikes me as profoundly illogical, absurd.

  224. @Ilya

    China is not a rules-based society — never has been, perhaps never will be. I’m skeptical that a nation can become a superpower if it can’t efficiently coordinate its population.

    They literally invented legalism, genius. And if they no longer follow that absurd and hypocritical ideology, good for them.

    Legalism by the way was a proto-globalist ideology, used to unite the various Chinese kingdoms under one centralized state and destroying the diversity of thought and traditions of the various states that were conquered by Qin Shi Huang.
    The legalists were tyrannical book burning psychopaths in much the same vein as modern liberals, who also like to babble about “rule of law” a lot and attack anybody they don’t like, be it Putin or Orban or Trump, with vague accusations about “corruption” and transgressions against “rules-based society”.

    That being said legalism does have influence in modern China, but the Confucian elements so far seem to prevail.

    The Qin dynasty which used legalism as its state ideology fell apart extremely quickly, while the Han dynasty that came after them and restored Confucianism while borrowing some practical elements of legalism unleashed such a golden age that the ethnic Chinese are called “people of Han” to this day.

    As for worrying that China does not “efficiently coordinate its population”, are you even fucking kidding me right now.

    • Replies: @Tulip
    , @Ilya
  225. AaronB says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Wealthy we do not at all think [Japan] will ever become: the advantages con­ferred by nature, with the exception of climate, and the love of indolence and pleasure of the people themselves, forbid it. The Japanese are a happy race, and being content with little, are not likely to achieve much. – Japan Herald, 9 April 1881

    Jesus that’s hilarious, to hear it stated so plainly.

    Of course the significance of this flew over everyone’s heads here, esp Anatoly.

    We’ve figured out how to close the racial achievement gap lol.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  226. AaronB says:
    @iffen

    We’re already in paradise, just people don’t know it.

  227. @utu

    Seems typical for most large or successful countries, if not all countries period. We need to be more willing to admit mistakes, learn from them, and stop doing the same damn destructive, unjust, bankrupting, violent things, to be sure, but we are not unique in not enjoying negative comparison to other countries.

  228. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Stop hyperventilating, Daniel.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  229. @Anonymous

    You’re right. And this should have been happening already.

    But the us government has been so belligerent and consistently dishonest vis-a-vis Russia that the USA and Russia are NOT, in fact, cooperating to check or balance China’s precipitous rise.

  230. @inertial

    I think people are overestimating the number of people in North America (USA and Canada), at least, who consume or care about anime, Japanese film, whatever popular culture is being exported from japan.

  231. @Daniel Chieh

    I live in Los Angeles and have never heard a single person say any Japanese word, including young people whom we are around all the time. ALMOST NOBODY knows or cares about Japanese popular culture in the USA, let alone language or even loan words, relative to population.

  232. Anon[157] • Disclaimer says:
    @E. Harding

    The myth of American insularity, today, in the twenties, or whenever, is just a myth. (Much like all US national myths.) The country didn’t get that big by mistake. Also, the first invasion of Tripoli by Americans was in 1805. In the 1920s, your specific time point, was involved in “revolutions” in Mexico and Russia, and ran a colony at the antipodes (Philippines). This is beyond China highest abilities, at any time in its history.

    • Replies: @E. Harding
  233. @Talha

    Now Talha, you leave the catholic priests alone.

  234. @RadicalCenter

    You shouldn’t advertise your isolation with such gusto.

    • Replies: @Bukephalos
    , @RadicalCenter
  235. @AaronB

    Pot isn’t a basis for theory of mind, either.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  236. Nznz says: • Website

    How was China able to get rid of its opium problem without resorting to legalization, which is the recommendes course of dealing with drug abuse problems like the opoid crisis in North America?

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  237. @neutral

    The ‘inferior’ Dravidian state of Tamil Nadu is one of the most industrial states of India. Many southern Indian states are quite developed. The tech capital of India is in Bangalore, Karnataka. Way down south. Meanwhile the ‘superior’ Aryan north is home to the (in)famous BIMARU belt. Basically the balkans of India.

    There are still rich Indian non-southern states like Gujarat or Maharashtra, but it is more accurate to classify them as western coastal states. The myth of the ‘inferior’ Dravidians really is outdated.

  238. Tulip says:

    Living in an age of Putler, it is astonishing to me that no one seems to notice that China is the closest thing to full-blown NatSoc since Berlin circa 1944, even down to their sensitive treatment of ethnic minorities. They just need yellow Swastika arm bands to go with those pastoral Ron Unz-style farms where they send the minorities.

    • Replies: @notanon
  239. @Jason Liu

    Ultimately the problem is a low trust culture – which wasn’t the case historically but has increasingly defined modern China. The adage of penny-wise, pound-foolish applies.

    It’s unfortunately an excellent example of how populations can change…for the worse in this case, post Cultural Revolution and Maoism.

    Any “greatness” ultimately hinges on solving this to a significant extent, one way or another.

  240. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Ha, I knew you were gonna respond with your beloved pot line :)

    Pot might calm you down, Daniel. You need to relax. Meditate on that quote about why the happy Japanese won’t become rich.

    Let all your fears about the inelastic aggression of the MIC drift away in circles of smoke….

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  241. Living in an age of Putler, it is astonishing to me that no one seems to notice that China is the closest thing to full-blown NatSoc since Berlin circa 1944, even down to their sensitive treatment of ethnic minorities. They just need yellow Swastika arm bands.

    It is a bit more complicated than that.

    • Replies: @Tulip
    , @Alfa158
  242. @Anonymous

    The man in the black pajama is a worthy fucking adversary

    I agree.

    • LOL: Hyperborean
  243. Tulip says:
    @Spisarevski

    The point of the American “rules-based” order is that the rules are for them, not us. China could field a viable “rules-based” order as well.

  244. @AaronB

    We’ve figured out how to close the racial achievement gap lol.

    Brilliant, now, instead of wasting your time here, why don’t you spend your free time enlightening the inner-city youth of the lovely city you live in? I am sure they would appreciate your philosophical advice.

  245. notanon says:
    @Tulip

    the media only cares about white natsocs

  246. Tulip says:
    @Hyperborean

    State capitalism, ethnonationalism, expansionist imperialism, hypermodernism, secular but socially conservative, authoritarianism, mass surveillance and absence of civil liberties, eugenics. . . how is it that complicated?

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  247. @Beckow

    So is sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Asia and Middle East. Geography will always limit those areas

    This is a leftist cuck argument used when they don’t want to deal with the reality of HBD. Lee Kuan Yew pointed out that the invention of the A/C saved Singapore. Israel is certainly far wealthier than its neighbours, including Lebanon which really has an amazing geographical position and very decent weather. There is absolutely no reason why Turkey isn’t as rich as France from a purely geographical PoV.

    Why is Chile so much richer than Argentina, despite the fact that Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world 100 years ago? It has everything to do with HBD, but also the system. Chile has decent IQ, not great, but they had wise rulers.

    Much of SSA was in a far better position in the 50s and 60s when you looked at their natural endowment than South Korea, and many western elites, even back then, betted on SSA over the Koreans. We know how that bet aged. The only reason why Korea might have had ‘better geography’ is proximity to higher IQ neighbours, a.k.a. its the HBD, stupid.

    Long story short, the ‘geography killed country X’ meme is terrible and you should be ashamed for even buying into such a dumb meme.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @DFH
  248. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Any “greatness” ultimately hinges on solving this to a significant extent, one way or another.

    On the contrary. Greatness depends on being unhappy and discontent.

    Since clearly the aim of life is to be great and not to be happy, we must strategically increase the unhappiness of a population if we want it to be great.

    The key is optimizing unhappiness and sowing distrust between people can be a useful tool for us. Of course too little trust can be harmful, but high levels of trust can contribute to too much happiness, and are thus dangerous.

    A wise government will make every effort to increase the unhappiness level of its population and spread discontent by every means at its disposal if it wishes to see them realize the true aim of life, which is greatness.

    America is very very good at this – feminism and all the rest can be seen as a benevolent effort to keep people unhappy and on their toes and thus focused on the important thing in life.

    China has to get much better at creating unhappiness among its people – there are still pockets of relative happiness there. Relations between the sexes are perhaps not as poisoned as would be optimal if young Chinese men are to become great.

  249. @Daniel Chieh

    I’m not surprised, Jap pop-culture in the form of anime and manga is quite divisive, among youngsters, in some quarters you will find people for whom this is the main culture their consume, while in others people refuse to even touch it and even develop a reaction against the fans, eg “weebos”.

    I would say that mangas do seem slightly more ‘intellectual’ and less naive in outlook (though still very far from “high culture”) than American comics, at least when looking at best-sellers.

    In other news The Three Body Problem may become real big in mass pop culture https://io9.gizmodo.com/report-amazon-may-pay-1-billion-to-adapt-the-hugo-win-1824110293 if this goes through
    American production value could make it look real great. But American tropes may as well ruin the thing if inserted. No idea what they’re doing with the Chinese film, it’s as if the rushes have been lost somewhere.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  250. notanon says:
    @neutral

    i don’t know if there’s a north vs south difference in maximum *potential* – i doubt it personally cos reasons – but my guess is India’s current IQ distribution is more coast vs inland cos coast = iodine.

  251. @AaronB

    You were better when your speculations on mysticism actually had any basis on what the ancients related to. If Kether is in Malkuth, then Malkuth is in Kether – is it not said? So frivolity and thoughtlessness offends both high and low; as it does as little respect to the higher entities as it does to the material entities.

    It matters not, in that sense, whether this world is “real” or whether “real” has any meaning: the essence of the soul is, and the virtues one bears even in this most material of planes reflect in the most subtle of planes.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  252. @Tulip

    State capitalism, ethnonationalism, expansionist imperialism, hypermodernism, secular but socially conservative, authoritarianism, mass surveillance and absence of civil liberties, eugenics. . . how is it that complicated?

    It is the kind of society where people casually use ‘European’ as a positive adjective and ‘African’ as a negative one while at the same time being obsessed by black American basketball players.

  253. OT: Well, well. There are senior intelligence chiefs deeply sympathetic to AfD.

    https://www.dw.com/en/german-spy-chief-passed-info-to-afd-report/a-45472180

    You need the buy-in of at least a portion of the elite to truly change a system. I know of no success stories where this hasn’t happened as a pre-condition.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  254. @Bukephalos

    Three Body Problem was impressively creative – along with FTL and Into the Breach, highly implies that there’s an unique form of Chinese creativity, a signature of sorts: a focus on the spatial and its impact on reality. I’ve noticed a trend in such in my own design processes.

    Not sure how much will come out of that while censorship is so in vogue. Sadly, Chinese achievement still largely rises outside of the mainland proper.

  255. @RadicalCenter

    Dude, there’s a whole damned Little Tokyo in Los Angeles. You really should go visit. They have a surplus of good food and a shortage of Roman Catholic priests.

  256. Beckow says:
    @Thulean Friend

    HBD has a role, certainly. But a population has to work with what they are given, with the geography – a ratio of good stuff, resources, weather. I don’t excuse the failed Third World societies, not in the least. But reality is that India will not develop a decent infrastructure – incl. plumbing – because it is too hot, humid, full of parasites and insects, pipes rot there.

    Regarding your examples: Singapore is an exception, mostly created by oversees Chinese in a unique island that managed to separate from its surroundings. Korea has great geography, water, weather, land resources. Within a region some will do better than others, e.g. Chile vs. Argentina. But there are geographic areas that are destined to be backward: SSA, most Carribean islands, most of Middle East, India and South-east Asia. Bangladesh will never be advanced, it just cannot be done. Those regions are also over-populated due to an insane post-WWII Western policies to coddle and subsidize (with technology) places that were in the past checked by natural limits. People there simply want out, and the pressure to migrate can be directly traced to the stupidity of the liberal West that for some strange reason has been taken over by a nihilistic impulse hitherto unseen in human history, at least not among advanced elites. I also don’t think understanding the role geography plays is ‘leftist’, at least I don’t see it that way. It is realist.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  257. DFH says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Why is Chile so much richer than Argentina, despite the fact that Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world 100 years ago? It has everything to do with HBD, but also the system. Chile has decent IQ, not great, but they had wise rulers.

    Chile is actually marginally less white than Argentina, although it does explain why they are both better off than Peru and Bolivia.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    , @Dmitry
  258. @Beckow

    I don’t think that the Indian elite lack the ability to construct infrastructure for their fellows. They can be, and I have seen, extremely talented.

    They just don’t seem to care. The Chinese, hardly know for benevolence, are generous philanthropists in comparison. And at it’s worst, there can be entire “spiritual” justifications why it’s totally okay to have corpses rotting in the streets.

    Its tragic.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  259. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Daniel, the deepest seriousness becomes frivolity. If you seriously think it through, you will see why. My frivolous comments contain my most serious insights.

    Spirituality liberates. You are oppressed and in bondage, Daniel – you ooze care, concern, anxiety, heaviness. You do not see through the material world. You do not see past the present.

    Seriousness can almost be a synonym for unintelligence -liberate yourself, Daniel :) Why be a fool ones whole life?

    There is a Great War going on between the frivolous and the serious – it is imperative one chooses the right side. The truly serious side.

    Choose not to be a donkey!

  260. Alfa158 says:
    @Hyperborean

    Well, pretty much everything can be said to be a bit more complicated than a thumbnail description in a comment to a blog post. Reality is complex so as humans we need to simplify and generalize as mental shorthand in order to work with it.
    However that doesn’t change the reality that his comment is essentially correct. China has evolved from Communism to National Socialism, even though they retain the symbols and superficial rhetoric of the old system. When the top Party hierarchy is mostly staffed with millionaires possessing fortunes the Krups would envy, they aren’t Communists anymore.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  261. @AaronB

    The central lesson from your example is it easy to confuse drug hazes with spirituality.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @AaronB
  262. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    BTW, Daniel, I am getting the strong feeling you’ve never read Chuang Tzu, that you’ve been steeped in Confucianism but never really looked at the other equally central Chinese tradition.

    Bertrand Russel said he was the world’s greatest philosopher. You might be surprised.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  263. @Alfa158

    The idea that it is ethnonationalist is laughable given how there is more faith in foreign products, the intense obsession with credentialism, and rampant materialism-individuality. And no, party hierarchy isn’t capitalistic. It might be nepotistic “Red Generation” and various patronage networks, but it’s not a plutocracy.

    It’s also a poor understanding of National Socialism, which didn’t have much to do with hypermodernism(thus the obsession with peasant-soldiers) and was really deeply rooted in volkischism and agarian traditions.

    • Replies: @Tulip
  264. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    You know Daniel, I never liked pot.

    In my drug days I favored cocaine, ecstasy, and alcohol, often together. Sometimes mushrooms.

    Cocaine is a very anti-spiritual drug and I can’t recommend it to anybody.

    These days I am distressingly and disturbingly sober, except for some alcohol, but I have found that true spirituality – the kind that liberates you, not the fake modern kind that adds to your bondage and make a you take the world more seriously, like Karlin favors – is better than any drug.

    But I am totally in favor of any one who feels they need pot. Only laughably serious people pursuing grand “projects” of domination object to pot, because it leads to idleness lol.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Bukephalos
  265. @AaronB

    I favor Belvedere vodka. God bless the spirit-producing Polish people.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  266. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Its good stuff. God bless Poland!

  267. @AaronB

    Bertrand Russel said he was the world’s greatest philosopher.

    Was this before or after he suggested preemptively nuking Russia as a ‘generous plan’?

    • Replies: @AaronB
  268. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Oh, I though you’d be impressed cause Russell was a great mathematician and into science and stuff.

    If not Russel, then read him because he is so fundamental to the culture of your people and country.

    If you truly are an Asian Reactionary, that is.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  269. @gmachine1729

    我和海外学生和表哥谈过这个问题,大部份人都同情我的想法,但是我的家庭有点跟大多华侨不同。我不相 Daniel。我家里人没有这个国民党官,那个国民军。我爷爷是种地的。我奶奶是种地的。我姥姥也是种地的。只有我姥爷给中铁干活。我父亲以外,上一代的家人不是农民只是工人。只有我这一代有更多人在白领工作。与今天的大陆人相比,我们比较穷。所以没有 “精美 “王八蛋。

    女人不要说。我家的女人上上下下太温柔了。他们不想这些事情 只想怎么可以好好生活。

  270. @AaronB

    Baudelaire wrote a book titled “Artificial Paradises”, about hashich and opium use. It also conveys quite well the principle of Olds and Milner’s brain stimulation reward experiment (rats had electrodes put in their pleasure centers, and a lever to activate them at will: they would barely ever do anything else anymore, to the point of starving).

    Which led some at lesswrong to speculate on “wireheading”, incidentally.

    My banal position is that, thinking of drugs in these terms personally leads me to avoid them entirely. The concept itself is flawed, I refuse to resort to an artificial short-circuit to compensate for a lack of satisfaction or pleasure in life. And no that doesn’t preclude some recreational drinking in social settings. The only allowance that should be made is if a medical condition leads to chronic, abnormal pain, but in this case only strict medical supervision should do.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Daniel Chieh
  271. @AaronB

    It may surprise you, but I have had a classical education in Chinese philosophy and while I am not against reading more Taoist thought, it’s silly to say that the entire Hundred Schools could be reduced to any one philosopher. Not even Confucius can claim that and he had more influence than anyone.

    Also appeals to authority are silly. You keep using them. Please desist.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Talha
  272. Ilya says:
    @Spisarevski

    China is an informal society; following the law — “rules” — is for suckers.

  273. AaronB says:
    @Bukephalos

    Right, I also would not recommend drugs except as a phase for some people, perhaps. I do believe it can be useful for some people as a phase. Or the occasional tension releasing session, if needed, including alcohol.

    The reason is simply that it is significantly inferior to genuine spirituality.

    That rat experiment is highly illuminating about the sources of accomplishment – unhappiness. If one is spiritually satisfied, there is very little to accomplish in the physical world aside from the ordinary tasks of sustaining life.

    This definitely sheds a great deal of light light on world history and national differences but no one seriously wants to think about it because it punctures so many fondly cherished illusions and delusions of modernity.

    Moreover, when an individual is trapped in unhappiness without understanding its source and sees accomplishment as his ticket out – whether its creating more technology, gaining wealth and status, power, reputation, women, – he can’t face the reality that what he’s placing his hopes on is a false dream.

    That’s too terrifying – and he reacts with anger at anyone who reminds him he took the wrong road in life.

    That’s why Anatoly can post such a strikingly significant quote from that Japanese newspaper, shedding so much light on so many themes of this blog, yet completely fail to understand what he just did. It sailed right over his head with registering the tiniest blip.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  274. @Bukephalos

    Asking a really wild question on a whim: in Sid Meier’s Alpha Centauri, wasn’t there a “chemically mediated society” that basically controlled it’s population through aerosol drugs? I can’t seem to find it now on a casual browse.

  275. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Ah, I though appeals to authority was un-gay around these parts.

    If not authority, then consider that it will help get you women. Yes. Chuang Tzu is better than all of your game tactics combined. I’m quite serious.

    I am at my wits end if that doesn’t work with you.

  276. @AaronB

    If one is spiritually satisfied, there is very little to accomplish in the physical world aside from the ordinary tasks of sustaining life

    Direct stimulation of stratium is highest form of rodent divinity. Who knew?

    • Replies: @AaronB
  277. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    If you read Chuang Tzu you would have known.

  278. @anonymous

    I agree that nutrition could still use some work, though how much is hard to quantify. South Korea and Taiwan appear to have solved the nutrition issue only by the early 2000′s. At least this seems to be the case as that birth cohort was the final one where gains in height seem to have finally plateaued.

    The aging population structure has been addressed by my and others elsewhere.

    Xinjiang is quite different the West’s colonies. The British empire when it crumbled had 30 million brits overseeing some 600 million in South & Southeast Asia. They were outnumbered 20 to 1 so it obviously wasn’t going to work long term. The Chinese outnumber the Uyghurs 120 to 1. There are already 9 million Han Chinese families living in Xinjiang. Compared to a few hundred thousand bureaucrats and soldiers the Brits had spread out in theirs. I will not accept abandoning them to be massacred by Muslim mobs. Unlike the West who seems to enjoy in a sadomasochistic fashion watching their own co-ethnics raped, murdered, and dispossessed, I don’t. I would rather every central Asian turkic muslim be rendered down into protein powder before I watch a single Han Chinese give up their homes. The Chinese have suffered enough at the hands of barbarians.

    The final issue of Chinese male “underperformance” is an artifact of your industry. Aside from your wrongheaded idea of “finance and law” as the “advanced economy”. The reason that Chinese women are overrepresented in venture capital and law is due to a confluence of factors. First, Women as a whole in Chinese executive positions are actually relatively underrepresented compared to the West. I think Forbes did a recent study looking at board members of fortune 500 companies and Chinese, along with Japanese companies were seriously deficient in female representation with 13 and 11 Japanese companies multibillion dollar companies having no female representation at all. Amazingly Tencent and JD both count themselves in this list. There is a slight female over participation in the labor force due to the lagacy of Communism, as there is in Russia. The Chinese venture capital industry is much larger than that of Japan’s and Korea’s, the reason of this is because of the complex interlink between Chinese VC and American VC. Namely look at Chinese VC’s and you’ll see a string of people who attended US schools in the 90′s, worked for Goldman or some such, then returned to China. Men get into wealth and power generally speaking by their own work. Women get it through their husbands. The reason that Chinese women have more relative representation in VC is what I would call the Wendi Deng effect. In the 90′s there was a string of ambitious Chinese students heading overseas and plenty of women among them. Being Chinese yourself, you should know that discrimination against East Asians in the West is heavily gendered. You yourself are competition, your women are fair game. What this in effect resulted to was a stronger representation of Chinese women moving through the Goldman type chain that feeds into the industry and their powerful hypergamous instinct lead them to marry American men. Unsaid but not unnoticed is that the majority of female Chinese venture capital partners were already married to American men and it was their patronage networks that they harnessed to get their businesses in China rolling. Likewise where you noticed the big investment company where 28 out of 30 in the legal department were women. I’ll bet you a million dollars that there is a Western manager somewhere immediately in the hiring process tilting the scales with his dick. You notice this phenomenon heavily in any industry in China where direct Western influence is at play, such as the offices of Western press agencies. This kind of lopsided female hiring just doesn’t happen at actually Chinese controlled businesses.

  279. @AaronB

    Appeals to poetry much more effective with me.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  280. anonymous[243] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Because you’re assuming that they are either 1)stupid, or 2)profoundly belligerent in a fashion that’ll completely exclude you from the need to commit to violence.

    I am not speaking in generalities. Specifically, Iran, which is neither stupid or profoundly belligerent. However, it will be attacked and it stands to better survive the pummeling if someone else is paying for life support for Syria.

    Not being destroyed. And while its always a balance between butter and guns, leaving oneself completely vulnerable results in enormous political weaknesses with economic consequences in itself, not to mention a lack of ability to mature the military later.

    Is China about to be destroyed? At the current rate of military spending I don’t see how the imminent destruction will be inflicted. How would whatever imminent threat be defeated if there was instead 4% spending (also taking into account a poorer the country at that level of military spending)? If spending is capped at either 1.5% or 2% how will that not prevent the maturity of the military later?

    The “early response” in some fashion is coming whether you want it or not, whether being “nearly economically impervious” happens or not.

    Do you regard Iran and China as interchangeable in the view of the US strategic community? Your comment implies that the US strategic community views all countries that do not tow the Washington line as equally on the priority list for attack. Obviously, whatever Iran tries to do, give up its nuclear program, etc. it is going to be attacked. That’s not true for other countries. After reading Unz Review have you figured out Iran might be a special target above all of the US strategic community? The same zeal is not applicable to China because Zionists are not dedicated to destroying China and nobody has more influence on foreign policy in Washington than Zionists. There is no widespread common view among the US strategic community about what response to take towards China and only some like Clinton and Bannon are of the early as possible attack mode. China can take a more quiet course and reduce the possibility of non-decisional people supporting an early response. At the same time Syrian humanitarian relief efforts can be funded so that Iran is not bankrupted, further preventing an early response.

  281. Chuck says:
    @Anonymous

    Indians are too xenophobic to allow foreign elites to move into their country and hit up on their women.

    There really should be some kind of basic knowledge test for commenters.

  282. anonymous[243] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Again, this is a terrible mentality, made even more terrible because its essentially projecting a certain Chinese shyness, almost cowardice, upon the world.Its terrifyingly self-deceptive.

    You can use all sorts of pejorative labels and deceive yourself. My view is measured and realistic based on current capabilities and with patient thought given to the rapid change that can occur in 15-20 years. China is still relatively poor and a vendor country to the US. That is current reality. Only when that reality changes has one earned the right to not act “timidly”. I prefer to call it smart and patient in contrast to Indians and their foreign policy.

  283. Talha says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Also appeals to authority are silly.

    I always thought appeal to authority was an acceptable argument as long as both sides come to some sort of agreement about the position/validity of the source, no?

    If the topic is about a new method of cataract surgery; is it better for me to discuss it by referencing the opinions of a highly credentialed ophthalmologist or of Jimmy, who runs the hot dog stand around the corner?

    Now, the ophthalmologist may well be wrong, but if you were putting down bets, would you place them on Jimmy?

    Peace.

  284. Vostok 2018 pics. Glorious!

    Russia has a top-tier army, and as some of the commenters have pointed out, this is largely a legacy of colossal Soviet-era investments which have given huge dividends. This dividend will peter out over time, so now is the moment to use it while it lasts. I don’t understand why Belarus and/or some other state isn’t just subjugated and incorporated pronto into mother Russia.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  285. Chuck says:
    @neutral

    The southern Indians are actually more developed than the northerners. The Afghans are even more indo-european than the northern Indians and even less developed.

  286. anonymous[243] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    being destroyed

    Hyperbole.

    Aggression happens as soon as it is possible, not as a result of calculations

    Zero recognition of the many voices in US strategic thinking. This is an absurd view that implies every single country that is not subordinate to the US is targeted as intensely as Iran. It doesn’t even matter whether you are perceived as a threat to the Israeli national interest, aggression just happens immediately!

    completely against everything we know at present

    Kind of statement that makes certain the speaker doesn’t put a lot of thought into it.

    And while its always a balance between butter and guns, leaving oneself completely vulnerable results in enormous political weaknesses with economic consequences in itself

    Have you considered the consequences of being economically weaker at the moment due to 30 years of military spending being diverted from much more efficient production capacity in the form of tens of thousands of kilometers of railways that would otherwise not have been built to cite a specific example?

    I don’t see much analysis in your writing or careful thinking. You make all sorts of blanket statements. Not only do you hype the extreme, you also skipped over the downsides of high military spending, not considering the value of a strong economy as the nucleus of national strength. That’s a money grows on trees mentality common to people who write about military and strategy. Karlin is an exception and part of what makes his strategy writing exceptional is not only HBD but economic logic.

  287. Rye says:
    @Anonymous

    Hmmm. I seem to recall a bunch of rice farmers in Vietnam driving America out of their country.

    Funny, I can’t seem to recall this event. Could you remind me of which battle it was that the Vietnamese won? I was under the false impression that America achieved its war aims by forcing North Vietnam to end hostilities, with North Vietnam only resuming hostilities against South Vietnam after an American military withdrawal and during a period of unrelated political upheaval in the United States.

    Besides, I’m talking about serious explicitly ethnic conflicts over territory and resources, not weird ideological interventions whose aims are ostensibly to benefit the population with whom you are fighting. Also, Vietnamese, like Japanese, serve as exceptions which prove the rule, as both populations have substantial recent non-agricultural ancestry and both have repeatedly proven themselves to be better warriors than the Chinese.

    • Replies: @Eventine
  288. @Daniel Chieh

    I don’t think that the Indian elite lack the ability to construct infrastructure for their fellows.

    Isn’t the problem that the ‘Indian people’ is largely a construct whereas the Han people are much closer interwoven into a common kin? Most Indians in the diaspora tend to support their caste/linguistic group. So Patidar castes promote and hire similar castes. I read somewhere that something like a full third of all US Indians are from Telugu-speaking groups, which is a sub-group in Southern India (one of the larger ones, though). Gujaratis are known for their business savvy and many of the Patel-owned motels in the US are from originated from these ‘Gujju’ families as they are known in India.

    The reason why India was conquered far more easily than China was for Westerners was because it was so easy to turn them against each other. In that sense, India is much more like Europe. Yes, there is a commonality between them but the seperating lines are far more numerous and absence of an immediate foreign threat, they will splinter.

    You saw this in the early decades after WWII as well. China invested heavily in basic education whereas Indian policy makers focused on elite education (IITs, IIMs etc). This was of course aimed at their own families and their kin. It seems to be a long-running curse for India.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  289. @DFH

    Chile is actually marginally less white than Argentina, although it does explain why they are both better off than Peru and Bolivia.

    The problem with measuring ‘whiteness’ in LatAm is that they are much more mixed than US whites, even those who pass as fully white. Genetic testing has consistently produced lower results for Argentina, Chile and Brazil when compared to self-identification. The ranking between Chile and Argentina also changes depending on which test(s) you use for comparison.

    Nevertheless, a blind worship of whiteness is thoroughly counter-productive. Success is not guaranteed just because you get a decent baseline to do well. That is true for individuals as well for nations.

    Speaking of Chile and whiteness. Amren had a great series of articles on this very topic a few days back.

    https://www.amren.com/features/2018/08/a-racial-introduction-to-chile-part-i/

    • Replies: @DFH
  290. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    That is an authority I can get behind too.

  291. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Vishnugupta

    India won a war against China? I really doubt that.

    The other “war” you site that India won against Portugal in the “Battle of Goa” shows 30 Portugese casualties vs 22 Indian casualties lol. That is not a war which proves my point.

    Bathing slowly caught on in the West because the technology such as piping and hot water was an emerging technology. You can hardly compare that to getting Indians to not poop in the street. Who cares if you launch some satellites.

  292. DFH says:
    @Thulean Friend

    I was talking in terms of genetic tests though.

  293. anonymous[243] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I’m doubtful of this claim but to specifically discuss China, I believe government spending over the last 30 years has been so efficient in not only raising growth but productivity that if there had been a lot more military spending during this period, it would have meant funds used efficiently by the government would have gone to cover a giant personnel payroll, pensions, and some military R&D. There’s also a terrible lot of graft in the military.

    To give you an idea of large chunks of the “discretionary” government budget. In 2018, the railway construction budget was 800 billion RMB or 1% of GDP. Another 1% probably goes to subways, highways, and airports. Taxes are also relatively low.

  294. Tulip says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    German National Socialism began its quest for power in rural Germany pandering to farmers and veterans, but once it got close to political power, Hitler began sucking up to the captains of industry and selling out the “socialist” plank of the program, up and until the Night of Long Knives and the purge of the SA from the party. After power, it was all industry and urbanization to maximize the output of the German war machine for the long war of “peace”. Mishima’s play My Friend Hitler addressed this “middle way” of the Revolution.

  295. @Duke of Qin

    你说的没错,工农子弟,即使那些很聪明的,很有学问的,跟老官僚知识分子家庭的那些世界观就是不一样,有家庭环境和传统因素,也有一点基因因素吧。毕竟那些能够升到社会上层的人和家庭先天性格和社会观点就有一定利于此之差异,就是英文所说的psychopathy。工农子弟后代一般比较是踏踏实实干活的那种,不太善于与上层勾心斗角拍马屁。

    若你是在中国一直待到大学读完,那你的英语太厉害了,你的确很聪明。我也很聪明,在中国没上什么学,中文读写基本都自己学的,在ABC和半ABC中极其少见,一直觉得ABC彻底美国化极愚蠢,所以我一直在心理上远离他们,这是明智的选择。

    我的父母的父母那辈也是农民出生,但后来却混进了城市,他们的孩子却都考进了好大学,说明好的基因还是有的。其实中国前几代高智商能读书的农民子弟多的是,随着教育的普及化,他们更多能够考进大学,从农民上升到城市人,升到工程师,科学家,教授。会使得中国阶级更分化,更固化。记得你觉得持久性的assortative mating长远而言会起负面的社会作用。

    This also needs to be said, long term assortative mating is bad, very very bad for civilization. You know what happens when assortative mating gets taken too far? A caste system. Basically creating multiculturalism and even multiracialism. Do as your ancestors have done and marry the pretty but not so bright girl and sire children with her. This spreads the smart genes around and ensures sufficient churn in the elites that stasis never sets in. Otherwise your civilization turns into India. India is a shithole, partly because the average Indian isn’t very bright, but mostly because their maladaptive caste system wrecked their society some 2000 years ago. The problem of the caste system is that it sets permanent status at birth, reproductive access without work, and lowers the general competitiveness of a society all around. Indian society has basically zero permanent social mobility because of endogamous mating and this means that not only are smart bright people not able to climb their way up in society, but stupidity by the elites is never punished as harshly as warranted. Merit is unrecognized, failure is tolerated and ignored, all to maintain group endogamy and caste advantage.

    还记得你写的

    Nice guys finish last. Chinese shouldn’t become “nicer”, they need to get meaner. Atavism is the word of the day and they need to embrace “meanness” to survive in an ever darker world. I’ve seen the behavior of the so-called “nice” Chinese; deracinated compradors with fertility rates below 1 whose primary desire is overpriced real estate and cargo culting the West and miscegenating themselves into oblivion. In other words, an evolutionary dead end. Ill take Henan peasant over Shanghai cosmopolitan any day of the week and twice on Sundays. One of the good things about the Communist Party is that they have universalized Chinese nationalism to no longer be the exclusive realm of educated elites. Next step is to foster a siege mentality of us against the world and project that “meanness” against outsiders. Race War Now.

    你说的没错,知识分子经常是最没有用的人,而且还容易起反作用。记得一位农民出身之物理学家说凭他的经验,大多知识分子都是坏的,都缺乏良知。你用了comprador这个词,不就是买办人吗,当年那些知识分子国民党高官都那种本色,相反河南农民还能做些体力劳动,比在美国那些死西化,伪西化的华人不知强到哪儿去了。

    欢迎阅读:

    https://gmachine1729.com/2018/09/13/how-east-asian-males-in-america-can-attain-more-status-and-power/

    https://gmachine1729.com/2018/09/11/why-chinese-americans-are-hopeless-as-a-group/

    要是你用微信就好了,我们有个小的微信群,其人同心,还有不少是哈弗学生和校友,欢迎你加入,其实里面一员已受到了你在这里评论的影响,同时也从我的博文得到了不少启发。

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @AaronB
    , @Dmitry
  296. Beckow says:
    @Thulean Friend

    … long-running curse for India

    True, and the curse is based on India being a very old civilization. There are layers and divisions that go back thousands of years, maybe 5-7,000 years ago. The caste system is an outgrowth of repeated conquests where the new elites tried to make sure that they don’t mix with the previous population. There had to be a number of these conquests, the original Indian native population was subjugated again and again with invading tribes taking over. The Indus valley and the Ganges heartland – when not densely populated – can be incredibly agriculturally rich.

    As with most mixed populations, no matter what the social effort, biology eventually prevails. The caste system couldn’t keep elites from mating (informally) with the natives. The layered demographic structure has led to a heterogeneous population with very low levels of mutual solidarity. In other words, dog eats dog world that one can observe in India. And no desire for common infrastructure.

    There is a lesson there for the rest of the world. If we mix it all up, we might end up with a global version of a giant, dysfunctional, over-populated India.

  297. @Jason Liu

    “They eat everything – beware.” – Korean friends of mine, laughing and frowning at the same time about their neighbors – at an exhibition of the excellent China Art Collection in the Kunst Museum Bern, Switzerland.

    • Replies: @Vinegar18
  298. Tulip says:

    To rephrase my prior comment,

    China today as a functioning regime most closely resembles the Third Reich prior to the commencement of hostilities more than any other government today. Whether it truly embodies the “spirit” of National Socialism as a pure idea divorced from the real world is beyond my current location in Socrates’ cave.

  299. @Anonymous

    Indians do a fine job mistreating their women all by themselves. They don’t need foreign help.

  300. @Duke of Qin

    对,女人就那德性,只顾自己怎么可以好好生活,经常没什么骨气,被动服从,母亲也遭美自由主义感染了。她的大学同学远远更可怕,跑美国后嫁给了一个美国南方conservative福音派老头,现在整天向上帝祈祷甭说,还跑到印第安人保留地进行传教活动,是被征服者成为征服者之乐意狗崽之典范,这类中国女人,尤其在美国,还真不少,何处置?

  301. @Talha

    That was a groan-worthy pun … and therefore an excellent one.

    But I might have to sue you for PUNitive damages.

    • LOL: Talha
  302. @Daniel Chieh

    Yeah, living and working and walking daily in downtown LA, spending weekends in two different locations in suburban LA and Orange Counties, owning property in another State, visiting my home State and several other states in that region for an extended period each year, and having lived in TEN States in the USA and one Canadian province, I’m really isolated and lack real-world experience and familiarity with North American culture and subcultures. You got me, genius.

    And our office has about half a dozen young women in their late teens to late 20s, with whom I’ve talked extensively over years, and they have never mentioned anime or jap culture as an interest.

    By contrast, my wife, who came from the Philippines, used to have some interest in anime.

    PS I was the driving force behind our children learning mandarin, that grating language, but for practical reasons rather than affection, that’s for sure. As you demonstrate, the Chinese are often rude assholes both here and abroad — yes, “even” compared to Americans, Canadians, and Europeans. But the way the US gov is weakening, bankrupting, balkanizing, and dumbing down my country, you’ll probably be able to gloat during your lifetime in a big way. Congratulations.

  303. @gmachine1729

    Guys, this is an English language forum. Please limit your Chinese here. A couple comments might be okay, but keeping to write in Chinese is pretty rude to all the non-Chinese speakers here.

    • Replies: @spandrell
  304. @The Big Red Scary

    LOL! Good line.

    But I’m there more often than you are, I’ll bet. We had children in daycare there at one time, used to take kids to a playground there as well (the one in 500 block of south Hewitt across from Cafe Urth). And I still walk through LT all the time.

    Also, how logical is it to think that what might be popular in a neighborhood called “Little Tokyo” is popular most or many places in the USA, which has very few Japanese or even half-Japanese people outside California, Hawaii, and Guam.

    Hope to see you at Chado sometime ;)

  305. @AaronB

    I was thinking more “jackass”, but that’s pretty close.

  306. @The Big Red Scary

    P.S. The catholic priests probably prefer WeHo over Little Tokyo, no?

  307. Mitleser says:
    @Thulean Friend

    He was just doing his job, but many Germans suffer from AfD derangement syndrome and refuse to treat the AfD fairly.

    AfD Bundestag member Stephan Brandner confirmed to public broadcaster ARD that Maassen had given him “numbers from the report” at a personal meeting on June 13, five weeks before it was released.

    “We talked about different figures that are in there,” Brandner told ARD, including the number of Islamist extremists in the country. The BfV is tasked with tracking extremist groups inside Germany and determining whether they represent a danger, and brings out a report on its findings every summer.

    Bradner is chairman of the committee on legal affairs of the federal parliament: https://www.bundestag.de/en/committees/a06
    How is that supposed to be a scandal?

  308. AaronB says:
    @gmachine1729

    Thank you for linking to wokeAZN gmachine, he’s priceless!

    If you walk confidently and arrogantly with a chip on your shoulder for most of your adult life you should be used to auto-triggering fragile whites and other men on a regular basis.

    Also, I recommend to respond instantly in a condescending way when your triggered opponent has a problem with you. I always talk down to them treating them like peasant shit which is like a sucker punch to them as they never expect that.

    And…

    that I’m not bad looking either…But for some reason just walking around in NYC/SF, I get dirty, disgusted looks from a lot of WFs when I’m alone and the occasional WM. When I’m with a friend who was much more stereotypical looking and shorter, WF/XF either look at him neutrally or with a smile. It must be cognitive dissonance, WF/WM.

    Most AM’s who are above average in criteria like looks, height, size, build or fitness can confirm that they automatically trigger “little man complex” in other men. It’s something normal you live with every day by just walking around. And living with that is way better than what many other AM’s have to deal with such as constant bullying, racial abuse, mockery and rejection by women etc.

    Right, you’re getting dirty looks cause you’re good looking :)

    Daniel Chieh, you see what kinds of grotesque mental problems are created by taking shit seriously and not knowing how to laugh at the world?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Talha
  309. @Mr. Hack

    Which would you rather go to, P.F.Changs, or to any of the ubiquitous Thai restaurants dotting the landcape of most any large U.S. urban center?

    Those are American fast food places, not Chinese or Thai food. That Americans prefer Thai-flavored American food to Chinese-flavored American food is not an argument for anything.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  310. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @E. Harding

    But you have to consider that those world powers destroyed and exhausted themselves and their empires in the World Wars. Things might have been different had that not happened. The US might have been the largest economy, but might not have been the dominant superpower/

    • Replies: @E. Harding
  311. @RadicalCenter

    This is where the liberal concept of lived experience is useful: you do not see an influence from your interactions. That’s true for you and it’s cool.

    Objectively, I could note that anime’s revenue has been increasingly from the US annually or estimations of viewship such as over 100k attending anime cons. But my lived experiences as “tech” person and I suspect Karlin will agree, also being a product of SV, will note enormous Japanese influence. Not just anime and manga: video games being the other huge vector. Do people mention video games to you? If not, do you think this means it’s not a major media?

    Beyond that, I have probably snarked ay everyone. You really need to work on your calm.

  312. @AaronB

    The world is full of crazy people, that we can agree on. My diagnosis is different, though. You should already know my Kaczynski’s beliefs about surrogate goals.

    Beyond that without going too deep into it, I think we increasingly have become wrapped in a culture of criticism rather than construction. There was always madness and anger in the world, but I feel we used to channel it into something more useful: art, society, religion, etc. Often enough, anyway.

    Modernity both increases stress on us – I think it can be measured via cortisol, and provides means of runaway dopamine feedback. I treat meditation to be a way to reconnect with a more normal state, in at least avoiding the shallow breathing of flight/fight response, to at least get to baseline.

    Ultimately, I try to live rather than preach, though. If something doesn’t work for me, who am I to tell another? And if it works for me, then I share but it might not work for another. Such is life: as Voltaire said, we must tend to our gardens.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  313. Dmitry says:
    @E. Harding

    Do you know any teenagers or have any relatives in this age?

    Ask them what they are interested. Compare to what you were interested when you were a teenager.
    You’re see how much more Japanese influence there is now, compared to even ten years ago.

    Japan has far more influence now, than ten years ago. And it has far far more than it did fifteen years ago. Japan’s rise began maybe in 2002, with things like “Spirited Away”. But it accelerated very heavily in last ten years, with internetization of culture replacing television.

    Obviously things like Nintendo were popular before, but were not openly popular as Japanese. Whereas nowadays, young people you can meeting know all kinds of Japanese words and phrases (which I know nothing of, despite being person who actually has visited).

    -

    As for economic power. Even China has now some economic power, but it has still zero or almost zero cultural power.

    China may be a couple generations away though. Nowadays a lot of Chinese youth are studying in art schools in Europe. There may be are some seeds of future development in their visual culture – with this size of population, they should have a large share of the world’s geniuses.

    • Replies: @E. Harding
    , @Spisarevski
  314. @Anon

    Also, the first invasion of Tripoli by Americans was in 1805.

    Gunboat diplomacy. Used to be very common, now frowned upon. Partly an artifact of per capita income mattering more in being able to afford a competent navy at the time than total income.

    In the 1920s, your specific time point, was involved in “revolutions” in Mexico and Russia, and ran a colony at the antipodes (Philippines).

    Direct imperialism was ubiquitous in the early 20th century. It no longer is. The U.S. was a very minor player in that game while it lasted. Under Mao, China promoted a great deal of revolutionary activity in Africa.

    In the 1920s, your specific time point, was involved in “revolutions” in Mexico and Russia

    It reacted to them; it didn’t start them. In the latter, it was part of an international coalition. The former was roughly on the scale of this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War

  315. Dmitry says:
    @gmachine1729

    Stop writing in Chinese. You cannot write English? We read English here – we can’t understand Chinese, so your messages are nonsense for us.

    • Replies: @gmachine1729
  316. DFH says:
    @RadicalCenter

    By contrast, my wife, who came from the Philippines

    Why does this not in any way surprise me?

  317. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    Reading those links and quotes is so bizarre to me. I can see why someone (living in America as an immigrant) would be in such a weird position and in such a psychological state (of seeing threats or challenges everywhere) if they viewed everything through the lens of race, HBD and game theory. I’m very glad I did read those, always glad to take an honest look at the world through someone else’s eyes.

    I had the privilege of knowing a few ethnic Chinese Muslim families in Southern California since I used to volunteer to teach their kids basic Islamic studies on weekends. I also had a roommate that was a Chinese Muslim in UCLA. I don’t remember any of them suffering from any type of inferiority complex. In fact, my roommate was probably one of the most confident guys I ever knew (except for his younger brother who played football in high school during that time) and he became the head of our MSA (man did we piss off the Zionists during that glorious year – good memories). He went on to marry a very pretty Syrian sister (since he went to Damascus to study Arabic and speaks it fluently) and have four kids – mashaAllah.

    He also called me recently to ask about hooking up with the Naqshbandi Order (which is just coming home of a sorts since that order was historically the most active in China).

    Peace.

    • Replies: @gmachine1729
    , @AaronB
  318. @Dmitry

    You’re see how much more Japanese influence there is now, compared to even ten years ago.

    Are Pokemon, Yu-Gi-Oh, Tamagotchis, Sailor Moon, anime, etc. really more popular now than they were in the mid-to-late 1990s?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Dmitry
  319. Dmitry says:
    @DFH

    Well if only life was so simple – Ukraine would not be poorer than Peru and Bolivia.

  320. @E. Harding

    Well, people are spending more money than ever on them. So either it is getting more popular, it’s developing a “dedicated core” that’s willing to spend a lot of money on it, or both.

    I personally suspect the second of the three, as per Pareto Principle.

  321. @Dmitry

    China has now some economic power, but it has still zero or almost zero cultural power.

    China may be a couple generations away though. Nowadays a lot of Chinese youth are studying in art schools in Europe.

    As if studying art in Europe will help them gain cultural power, lol.

    Europe is a cultural wasteland, lying on old glory. With the exception of metal bands and some video games, pretty much nothing interesting comes out of Europe.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  322. Mr. Hack says:
    @anonymous coward

    Of course you are right and I didn’t quite offer a good example of what I was trying to get across. Alfred McCoy’s article that I cited above has convinced me that China will not be in a position to overcome the US as a ‘superpower’, or a hegemon in world affairs because of two basic obstacles: 1) it will not be able to perpetuate or spread its complex language beyond its own borders much and 2) it doesn’t have the basis or the history of a legal system needed to offer a modicum of stability in the world of diplomacy and commerce in the world today. There’s more to it then just these two things, just read his article to get more insight.

  323. Dmitry says:
    @E. Harding

    Tamagotchi is a toy for quite young children? Probably was not transmitting culture so well, anymore than Masha and Bear doesn’t transmit Russian culture. At this age group, children don’t appreciate things even as being from other countries, and the cultural exports are also universalized for that market.

    Japan’s success in the last ten years, is seems mainly result of the internet becoming the dominant cultural transmitter.

    In the early 2000s, popular and youth culture was determined more by local media and entertainment industry. It was more local, as the regional culture industry wants to protect its market, and imported products were less “fine grain”, being determined by which local businessmen think will be popular imports.

    Now with increasing dominance the internet, everyone can choose their own cultural importation, just following what matches their personality.

    Personal pop culture is very unfixed by local authorities. There are teenagers who can live entirely in cultures of other countries. In this newly free market, the most influential cultures for teenagers, probably: America, Japan and Korea, in this order.

    England is weaker than these three,- despite fading success of Harry Potter. .

    As a result of Marvel and MCU, American culture is definitely rising a lot. But this is product isn’t very directly American, and aims more universally. (with some exception – Guardians promoting 1980s American pop music; Spider-Man Homecoming promoting SJW philosophy).

    But Japanese culture exports, are probably the most which are directly promoting the “Japanese lifestyle” and way of viewing the world. This idea you can be a kind of autistic child, fantasizing all your life, as long as everything is beautifully packaged.

    In 1990s and 2000s, people enjoyed Nintendo, but they didn’t understand the mind that could create Nintendo. When Mario Brothers was exported around the world in 1980s, probably people enjoyed as a product of a very strange culture.

    But the level of cultural assimilation to Japan – that now much of the current generation of teenagers will find the Japanese view of the world and aesthetics to be a kind of native language. Of course, it’s still within a world where American pop culture is the dominant framework.

  324. Dmitry says:
    @Spisarevski

    Still all these Chinese art students, could probably get a lot of training and inspiration which they will bring back to China.

    I agree European pop culture and cartoons are shit today. But probably the best formal artistic education is still available in Europe (as really the best other kinds of education), even if the education not resulting in fertile production.

  325. Okechukwu says:

    China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at the latest {here’s my 2012 article on this}, and will almost certainly repeat that in nominal terms by the early 2020s.

    You made this argument before at which time I pointed out to you that PPP is a junk metric — an opinion, by the way, held by the leading Chinese think tanks.

    Chinese development is extremely similar to South Korea’s but with a lag of 20 years {East Asia’s Twenty Year Rule}. Consequently, a China that converges to South Korean development levels in relative terms – something that we can expect to see by 2040 – will automatically be three times the size of the US economy just by dint of its demographic preponderance.

    This is fanciful speculation that is bordering on the absurd. You require serious psychiatric evaluation if you truly believe that China is going to have a GDP of $60 trillion dollars in 20 years. China in fact is slowing down. It’s GDP numbers evidence accounting gimmickry more than real economic output (the construction of ghost cities and such), which itself is driven by a speculative bubble that is bound to burst.

    There is absolutely no reason why this process of convergence must stall at any point, since average IQ explains almost all economic success, and Chinese IQ is comparable to those of the most developed OECD nations.

    Here we go again with the IQ bullshit. High IQ’s didn’t prevent the Chinese from eating rats and grass a few generations ago. Btw, where are you getting the Chinese IQ numbers? From the Chinese themselves? Well, is the information credible?

    As China continues to develop, its economy will likewise continue getting more and more sophisticated – as of this year, it has twice as many industrial robots as the entirety of North America, and more supercomputers than the US. {China Overtakes US in Scientific Articles, Robots, Supercomputers}

    The Chinese economy will never overtake America’s as long as it remains a closed, opaque system. Russia is a neighbor to China, but where do most Russians prefer to invest their money, in Shanghai or New York? How about the Chinese themselves? Where do they prefer to invest their money? And where do they go to pump out anchor babies? The US has vast, deep, transparent and mindbogglingly liquid financial markets. That’s what truly anchors the US economy and will keep it dominant for the foreseeable future.

    PLAN is slated to have more ships than the USN by 2030.

    Yeah, let’s see their dinghies take on the Ronald Reagan Battle Group in open water. North Korea has lots of ships too.

    On my projections, comprehensive Chinese military power should exceed that of the US by the early 2030s

    Sheer stupidity. The Chinese haven’t even fought a real war in modern times. No one knows how they will react under fire or if their mostly reverse engineered stuff will even work.

    and Chinese naval power should overtake the US by the early 2040s

    LMAO. China just managed to launch its first aircraft carrier and you think they’re going to build 20 more in 20 years to overtake the US? Maybe they should focus on getting ahead of Japan first.

    Even assuming no disruptive developments in the United States, such as a catastrophic unwinding of the dollar or secessionism provoked by ideological polarization

    Here, in a nutshell, you have the twin obsessions of Russian expatriates. Karlin is part of a breed of ex-pat Russian “nationalists” who fetishize with bated breath the eminent collapse of the West, the United States in particular, while comfortably ensconced there. One of the prime propagandists of this cult of Western collapse is one Dmitry Orlov (see The Five Stages of Collapse and Reinventing Collapse). Like other Russian expats Orlov analogizes the trajectory of the USSR and its eventual collapse to that of the USA. Of course the USA is a relatively tightly knit organic construction of culturally and linguistically homogeneous people. Whereas the USSR consisted primarily of captive nations the citizens of which were deathly afraid of their own government.

    Then there is the dollar, which according to these Russian expats is the prime villain that is responsible for all the world’s ills because its preeminence as the global reserve currency underpins American power, and by extension, America’s transgressions around the world. Thus they predict with eager anticipation the collapse of the dollar — which never seems to materialize. This obsession with the dollar and the pining for its destruction reaches all the way to the very center of power in Russia, up to and including Putin. In fact Medvedev presented a “new world reserve currency” at the G8 in Italy. These people seriously believe that the world can adopt a new reserve currency overnight and by fiat.

  326. Mitleser says:
    @Okechukwu

    The Chinese haven’t even fought a real war in modern times.

    Have Americans fought a war against a (near-)peer power in modern power?

    Maybe they should focus on getting ahead of Japan first.

    They are already ahead of Japan in this area.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  327. @Talha

    I’m not a real Chinese immigrant, I came here in grade school not of my own choosing.

    • Replies: @Talha
  328. @Dmitry

    Есть вещи, которые намного проще сказать по-китайски. Вы можете использовать Яндекс переводчик.

  329. Okechukwu says:
    @Mitleser

    They are already ahead of Japan in this area.

    China has 1 active, combat ready carrier. Japan has 4 but prefers not to call them aircraft carriers. I guess the term recalls too many bad memories.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    , @Bombercommand
  330. Talha says:
    @gmachine1729

    I was dragged here by my father when I was 6 too, bro. I went through crap in school; people calling me sand-nigger, camel-this-and-that, Christian kids telling me I was going to go to hell, teasing me for not being able to eat pork, etc. But I didn’t let it define who I am. I get along great with my neighbors and coworkers (a couple of Chinese people report to me), I sit on one of my city’s planning commissions (I’m on first name basis with our mayor) and I plan on giving back more to the society by doing more volunteer work once my kids get a little older. I consider the people of the US to be “my people” (my qawm), I drink the same water, breathe the same air and enjoy the same rain as they do (and I’m grateful for them accepting me and my family who came with barely any money and just some hopes) – and I’ll only go elsewhere if I’m forced out.

    I don’t wave the Pakistani flag and I never attend Pakistani national events like Independence Day, etc. I left my flag behind and I expect other Americans to do the same if they come here from elsewhere. Bring your language, food, poetry, etc. but don’t bring your flag – or go back.

    Just some advice…

    Life is what you make of it man; the choice is yours – nobody wants to be around toxic personalities that are pissed off at the world. As a fellow American (if just one voice), you’re welcome here as far as I’m concerned and I certainly don’t look down on you for being Chinese; just pull your weight and do your part for our people. And when you do give back, trust me – at least from my experience – my fellow Americans (most of them anyway) will be grateful to have you here.

    Peace.

  331. @Anonymous

    OK, let’s go with some alternative history. In 1930, the Soviet Union develops the atom bomb. The U.S., Great Britain, France, and Japan acquire it in 1936, China (via secret deal with France) and Germany do so early in 1937. The Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Poland do so just after the German annexation of Czechoslovakia (via acquisition from France and Britain), and Finland does so just after the Soviet/Finnish war. No partition of Poland, no partition of Germany. No Japanese invasion of China (though it keeps Manchuria). Norway gets into an alliance with Britain (though it does not get the bomb). No Second World War. Italy still invades Ethiopia, but Greece getting the bomb from Britain in early 1940 prevents it from being invaded. Nuclear proliferation becomes the major issue of the 1940s. Being boxed in, Germany fails to expand anywhere other than Yugoslavia, which suffers a three-year-long conflict which results in its partition between Communists and Nazis. Romania gets the atom bomb from Great Britain after the Soviet annexation of Moldova. Germany experiences an economic crisis in the 1940s and Hitler expels the Jews. He dies in 1946 and the resulting regime undos some of his more severe economic measures and becomes more friendly with the West. However, it does not democratize until the 1970s.

    The 1950s and 1960s (as in real life) become a great period of economic convergence throughout Eastern and Southern Europe and a great period of anti-imperialism. Britain, France, and the U.S. agree to open up trade with each other and with other countries. As in our timeline, the Soviet Union backs Communist revolutions throughout the third world (including Cuba). India gets independence, probably at some point after 1949. Vietnam gets taken over by the Communists in the 1960s. The nationalists eventually win in China in the 1950s due to British, French, and American backing. The Indonesian anti-imperialist war happens a little later than in our timeline, but still results in the Netherlands losing Indonesia, probably in the late 1950s. France loses Algeria and Portugal loses Angola and Mozambique on schedule. The time of independence of Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco is more uncertain, but Tunisia likely loses independence on schedule and Egypt a little later. The Balkan wars happen on schedule. The Soviet Union probably falls apart either on schedule or even earlier. Italy keeps Libya until either war or protests force it to give up the territory, but loses Ethiopia by the early 1970s.

    As in our timeline, the end of the world boom in the early 1970s becomes a great period of democratization for southern Europe, and, in this timeline, the wave extends to much of Eastern Europe as well, as well as to Germany. Czechia and Slovakia (less the Sudetenland) is given back to the Czechs and Slovaks. Japan becomes a democracy in the 1950s, due to dissatisfaction with the ruling government. However, the occupation of Taiwan, Korea, and Manchuria would likely get resolved much later, possibly as late as the 1990s. Korea (if it does not fall to the Communists) and Taiwan experience massive economic booms during the 1990s, with the booms very likely beginning in the 1950s and 1960s, before independence. Manchuria would most likely join nationalist China or, if the Soviets back a Communist revolution there, becomes a Communist protectorate similar to North Korea. However, nationalist China could still conquer it before it acquires nuclear weapons. In its broad outlines, the Flying Geese theory would still be correct. China would become the world’s largest economy in about 2000 due to higher fertility and economic growth beginning earlier, spurred by the examples of Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and (if it does not go Communist) Korea.

    So the overseas empires would probably be gone due to the cost of holding territory growing larger, but a Europe independent of American dictates would be possible (due to Germany not being occupied by the US and USSR and Italy and Japan not being occupied by the US). NATO, if it would exist, would probably be a very different beast from today. The existence of the E.U., though quite possible, would be uncertain; the existence of the U.N. even less. The attitude of everyday Germans and Italians toward the fascists could go either the way of the Japanese or the Spanish+Portuguese, depending on how the regimes end. However, American cultural influence would still gradually grow throughout the 1950s and 1960s as American cultural institutions become more developed.

  332. Mitleser says:
    @Okechukwu

    China has a combat-ready fixed-wing aircraft carrier.
    Japan has no combat-ready fixed-wing aircraft carrier and no fixed-wing aircraft (F-35B) for the heli carriers.

    If we do not limit them to fixed-wing aircraft carriers, the PLAN has many other ships who carry and operate helis like the Type 071 LPDs.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  333. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:

    Anatoly,

    An interesting future post would be to summarize the best possible case against “Sinotriumph”, incorporating projections based on policies like Trump’s tariffs, reduction in world trade, etc.

  334. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @RadicalCenter

    I agree with Dimitry that the Internet has mainstreamed a lot of Japanese culture into the US.

    To me, I see a lot of Japanese influences, if not directly than with YouTube influencers.

    This got me thinking though. Besides Japan, what other foreign country even has an influence in America?

    Mexico is our largest foreign neighbor and it seems like there is almost 0 influence.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Okechukwu
  335. AP says:
    @Anonymous

    Mexico is our largest foreign neighbor and it seems like there is almost 0 influence.

    ????

    Mexican food everywhere.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Anonymous
  336. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Right, there was always madness and anger – but the solution was always to see through the world, cultivate detachment, not take material things or yourself too seriously. That was the cure. People who couldn’t do this went mad.

    It was a wider perspective that situated our petty lives in eternity. There has been a radical loss of perspective – and thus intelligence.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  337. Okechukwu says:
    @Mitleser

    It’s because the Japanese constitution swears off “offensive” weapons. However, those vessels are aircraft carriers in all but name. With relatively minor modifications they could accommodate fixed wing aircraft, not even counting the vertical takeoff F-35B.

    Many rankings list Japan as #2 in aircraft carriers.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  338. @Talha

    Cool! I’m very happy for you. You made the American Dream! I totally see how many people from really poor places would kill to come here. When you’re extremely poor, your expectations are quite low. Certainly, America is extremely generous to many immigrants, maybe too much so, without adequate forecast of the long term consequences.

    Lol contrary to how I may come across to some on this rather radical forum, I’m actually a pretty socially normal person. I have American American friends too with whom I talk on a regular basis. I’m obviously not going to say the shit I say on here in most other social contexts.

    Maybe I’m more conservative in some sense. I value and have pride in my roots too, and I hope more Chinese can be like that too. You know, a Harvard humanities PhD student from China was telling me about how even when China was complete shit and seemingly hopeless (like early 20th century), many Chinese still fought resolutely against the odds, as they knew that to give up would be to contribute to cultural and national death, and eventually succeeded. Chinese are indeed quite proud that they did not easily succumb to colonialism like the Indians did. I can very much identify with this myself. Honestly, compared to those people, I feel like nothing. I am merely able to resist the whole American brainwashing experience. China is now not only well on the right path but already quite powerful and advanced, on track to become number one in the eyes of many if not most.

    Haha, our people, American identity is pretty incoherent as far as I can tell, a cultural potpourri, many internal multiracial contradictions. As for those who feel genuinely attached to what I would regard as a pseudo-identity artificially constructed to keep minorities under control, I can do nothing other than sway them a very tiny bit through some writings on the internet and through my personal example.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Jeff Stryker
    , @Talha
  339. Something I wish to see addressed that I have not seen yet: the long term consequences of China butchering it’s infant females in the later 20th Century and into the turn of the millennium.
    Young Chinese native have the worst gender ratio skew in record demographic data. In some parts of the country it’s as bad as 1.5 young men die every 1 young woman. The their endangered status has wildly inflated female SMV, and awareness of their rarity and the power that comes with it has made young Chinese women exploitative of courting men to a degree that eclipses even American feminists.
    I absolutely believe that the sudden massive uptick in pseudo-colonialism on China’s part in recent years is driven by a desperate desire to export as many leftover lower class boys as they can before they have to deal with sex-starved riot mobs, but even this is a stopgap measure entire liable to backfiring catastrophically.
    Already there are reports of overseas Chinese factory workers taking native women as brides in Africa; some of these ugly couples have already started to make their way back to the fatherland. This can only lead to gross dysgenics to Chinese society in very rapid order, especially given the already acknowledged reality that China has completely neglected to form and organized active cultural philosophy to directly oppose Western-Zionist Progressivist “Pro-Diversity” postmodern Marxist agitprop.

  340. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    You see through the world and are able to situate your life in an eternal perspective – they can’t, so of course they’re angry. It comes from taking things too seriously.

    HBD and game nonsense is a mental trap.

    Their misery is palpable, but they can’t see how their assumptions are trapping them. Instead of understanding their assumptions are a trap, they think happiness lies in satisfying the imperatives imposed on them by their assumptions.

    I see many people who have accepted the values of our modern society and are miserable because of it – but somehow think happiness lies in trying harder to live up to these values. So they step onto the treadmill.

    For some curious reason, they can’t question those values.

    I remember when I believed in HBD and Evolution as the total truth – at a certain point, I began to question if I needed to live by these values if they made me miserable. Ok, Evolution says I should want to dominate others – but what if I just don’t. Why should I care what Evolution wants. It’s a blind force.

    I had zero intellectual framework in which to fit the idea that my inmost desires did not fit the the Evolution paradigm. I couldn’t explain it.

    But I had enough independence of spirit and enough of a rebellious spark to do what made me happy even if all the best scientific theories tell me I shouldn’t be happy acting this way.

    Later I acquired the intellectual framework to understand what I was feeling. But first came standing up for myself, an act of rebellion, independence. Prometheus against Zeus.

    But these people somehow lack independence of spirit.

    And they lack honesty – gmachine’s misery is palpable, but the only way he can imagine to alleviate his misery is doubling his efforts to conform to what Evolutionary Theory says should make him happy.
    He cannot question the assumptions of the society he finds himself in.

    I would rather act on whimthan be imprisoned by a scientific theory that was false to my deepest experiences.

    To be fair to these miserable Chinese in America – lots of white people become bitter and resentful living Asia. I have never seem it as extreme as gmachine and his ilk, but it’s not an uncommon reaction to being a minority without having a larger spiritual perspective that helps give you perspective and detachment.

  341. Yee says:

    Talha,

    “I don’t wave the Pakistani flag”

    Of course not, you wave the Islam flag…. Nation is never important for Islam. They’re true globalists.

    See those international head-choppers in Iraq and Syria? They go thousands of miles for Islam, not for their nations.

    • Replies: @Talha
  342. Okechukwu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Go back to Nigeria, shine.

    Last I checked, my birth certificate said born in the USA. You apparently were born in Russia, so what’s your excuse for not living there? And please save the denials. I’m pretty familiar with the verbiage of Russians who actually live in Russia. Even if they have excellent English language skills there are telltale signs. While your writing isn’t particularly impressive, your language does on occasion betray idiomatic American speech. And you’re too invested and too conversant in the mundane details of American life. Not even the most accomplished trolls at the St. Petersburg troll factory can pull that off.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  343. AaronB says:
    @gmachine1729

    But you did succumb to Colonialism lol – you are now merely ersatz Americans, who speak Chinese and use a different writing system.

    Your entire blog is merely an effort to transform Chinese into 19th century Westerners – the very people who traumatized you. You have been internally colonized.

    Like Feminists who think they are standing up for women by re-creating them as men, and who worship male qualities while despising feminity, you have learned to despise China.

    India speaks and writes English – but has not been fully colonized internally, and remains profoundly different.

  344. ‘…Consequently, a China that converges to South Korean development levels in relative terms – something that we can expect to see by 2040 – will automatically be three times the size of the US economy just by dint of its demographic preponderance…

    There are some logical problems with this, but I’ll point out the most obvious one.

    It’s akin to the problem with the ‘black Africa’s population is going to rise to four billion’ prediction.

    That ignores the question: who is going to want to feed four billion Africans?

    In the case of China, she has an export-based economy. Just where is she going to find markets to absorb her production if her economy is three times the size of America’s? The rest of us can only use so many toasters, lap tops, washing machines, cars, and floor jacks.

    • Replies: @DB Cooper
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  345. Okechukwu says:
    @Anonymous

    This got me thinking though. Besides Japan, what other foreign country even has an influence in America?

    Mexico is our largest foreign neighbor and it seems like there is almost 0 influence.

    Is that right? I don’t recall ever being asked to press 2 for Japanese. Nor do I know of any states, cities or streets with Japanese names. And it would be nice to not to have to hunt for a good Japanese restaurant. Of course some American cities don’t even have one. I wish they were as ubiquitous as Mexican eateries. Even non-Mexican restaurants serve Mexican food.

    Mexican culture is so pervasive and so ingrained that it’s part and parcel of Americana. That’s why you don’t notice it.

    • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  346. ‘…As with my standard “futuristic” projections, all this assumes there are no radical discontinuities in our world – no machine superintelligence, no mass gene editing for superhuman IQ, etc…

    Note here that ‘radical discontinuities’ are actually pretty common.

    In the last five hundred years we’ve had: the Protestant Reformation, the appearance of drilled troops armed with (relatively) reliable firarms, reliable transoceanic shipping, revolutionary politics, steam power, modern nation states capable of arming and fielding mass conscript armies, the telegraph and telephone, motor vehicles, radio, aircraft, nuclear weapons, and computers.

    All of these (and whatever I’ve missed) have been game-changers, and lately they’ve started coming along at about thirty-forty year intervals.

    So any projection — not just yours — is more than likely to turn out to have no validity at all.

    • Replies: @Talha
  347. @anonymous

    If you’re Chinese you should not entertain any such idea of giving up Xinjiang. China should not give up an inch of land. Land is basically one of the greatest strategic asset one can have in present year and given technological development currently useless land may have much more practical uses in the future. Do you see ANY country in the world giving up territory willingly? If you entertain the idea that because people don’t like living in a country and therefore have the right to independence then China might as well split up as a country. I’m guessing you entertain the idea of granting Taiwan and Tibet and Hong Kong independence as well? Third rate powers in the Middle East will never allow the Kurds to gain independence. Not even Spain is allowing Catalonia independence. And yet you entertain the idea of China giving up Xinjiang? Anyways what is this enlightenment mindbug that you are hoping spread across China? That Chinese people become so stupid from liberalism that they allow self determination???

  348. Vinegar18 says:
    @Dieter Kief

    “They eat everything – beware … Bern, Switzerland”

    https://www.newsweek.com/not-just-christmas-swiss-urged-stop-eating-cats-and-dogs-287378

    “3% of Swiss people eat cat or dog meat, 80% of them being farmers. The Lucerne, Appenzell, Jura and Bern areas are the main culprits. “

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
  349. Talha says:
    @Yee

    Yeah, we have a universal brotherhood and a concept of an Ummah, no doubt about that. But we are talking about a nation-state that has a social contract and entails commitments to each other as citizens, I try to hold up my bargain there as much as I can. I do not have this same social contract of citizenship with people of other nations, just Americans.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  350. icicle says:
    @Okechukwu

    “where do most Russians prefer to invest their money, in Shanghai or New York?”

    https://www.wikitribune.com/article/45323/

    “US freezes assets of 24 Russian officials and oligarchs”

    You are more stupid than I thought.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  351. Talha says:
    @Colin Wright

    As usual, great points…and welcome to the thread!

    Peace.

  352. DB Cooper says:
    @Colin Wright

    Even since the 2009 clash China has been shifting its export driven economy to more domestic driven.

    “The rest of us can only use so many toasters, lap tops, washing machines, cars, and floor jacks.” That’s true if you only assume China make these kind of goods exclusively. But China’s industry is upgrading and increasing making more hi-end products. The drone brand DJI basically dominates the drone market and is considered the best in the industry. People will always buy a better drone will they? A drone with longer battery life, longer range,…

  353. @Okechukwu

    It’s getting boring, so I won’t let it continue.

    You know, Karlin publishes his picture and pretty much all the details of his life. I don’t care so much so I won’t go into details, but the major events of his life are roughly the following:

    #1 born in Russia
    #2 as a child, going to England, growing up there
    #3 as a very young adult, going to the US
    #4 something like a year or two ago going back to Russia, which was a major topic on his blog
    #5 reading Okechekwu’s comments claiming that he doesn’t live in Russia

  354. @anonymous

    No, China absolutely should not be adjusting its military spending downwards because of Maidan. For one thing, China and Russia aren’t formally military allies yet. Russia is under no obligation to fight for China. For another, Great Powers should only rely on themselves for military strength. Just because Russia-China relations are good now does not mean they will stay forever good. Making your military less strong than it can be to rely on a country that is not even in a formal military alliance with you is crazy. Are you the same poster that wrote China should become “enlightened” and give up Xinjiang? This is crazy thinking and no Chinese should think like this.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  355. Okechukwu says:
    @icicle

    “US freezes assets of 24 Russian officials and oligarchs”

    You are more stupid than I thought.

    So? Your point is?

    Actually, sanctions and asset freezes of this kind serve only to increase the likelihood of wealthy Russians seeking a safe haven for their assets in the United States. A very large percentage of the post-sanctions capital flight out of Russia lands in the United States. It may seem counterintuitive to a financially illiterate moron like you, but that is precisely what is happening.

    • Replies: @icicle
  356. Pericles says:
    @Spisarevski

    they produce far more original, new and exciting cultural content that the whole European Union combined (a counterexample for the supposed advantage Europeans have in creativity)

    European cultural production leans heavily towards sinecures for the usual cast of untalented women, muds, fags, etc. so they can repeat the same stale old criticisms and try to figure out new ways to transgress against society. In other words, we can’t expect much, and it’s not surprising we can’t expect much.

  357. “I actually agree with China pessimists that the Chinese, or rather East Asians in general, are more conformist than Europeans, which limits creativity”

    But European countries, including the US, are becoming less European by the day. What’ll happen to European creativity when Europeans are an embattled minority? There won’t be the gifted amateurs, the collectors, the tinkerers, the noticers.

    China simply has to wait, and allow these (for them – dreadful for us) favourable trends to play out.

    RandomRand – “Do you see ANY country in the world giving up territory willingly?”

    Yes – I’ve seen London and Birmingham, the UKs two biggest cities, surrendered to strangers in my lifetime. And I’ve watched California go from the Golden State to Mexico Norte.

  358. S says:
    @anon

    Perhaps all comparisons of America with Rome are overblown. Perhaps, in the history of the future, China is the analogue of Rome and Europe and Anglosphere are analogues of Greece and Hellenistic world.

    I doubt the the US/UK bloc will readily allow China (and or Russia for that matter) to ultmately consolidate the economic and military power the two countries are attempting to amass at this time…in the same way Germany wasn’t allowed to consolidate its conquest of the bulk of Europe during WWII.

    Of course, in a WWIII scenario between the US/UK and Russia/Sino blocs there is some chance these two power blocs will (be allowed to?) largely destroy each other.

    One past comparison between America and Rome was made in 1853 when the book The New Rome was published in the United States. As the book describes things, the US is the planned direct continuation of the British Empire, which in the future will co-jointly with the UK conquer and gain control of Germany. Russia is identified as a contender with America for the domination of Germany and of Europe (and thus the world) and its land forces are to be overcome by aerial bombardment via the ability of the US to project its air power globally.

    China is mentioned too…

    The New Rome (1853) – pg 98

    ‘From these relations we may calculate upon an emigration of American business men to China, in return for that of Chinese laborers to California.’

    https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/the_new_rome_or_the_united_states_of_the_world_1853

    https://archive.org/details/politicalprophec00goeb

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Biff
  359. @Nznz

    Very simple. Mao’s communists took over. Chiang’s KMT government, Big Ear Tu’s Green Gang, and China’s Propertied Class controlled the heroin trade. Mao evicted the KMT and the Green Gang and China’s Propertied Class fled to Taiwan, Hong Kong or The US. This greatly simplified the problem as all heroin had to enter China from outside and the trade was not protected on the inside. The KMT army invaded Burma and set up poppy growing and processing labs but the Burmese government asked China to invade and destroy the KMT army, which they did. There was still smuggling, but it was small time, unprotected by the police. Dealers were arrested, sent to reeducation camps, then given a job. They got one chance,if they returned to heroin dealing they were executed. Problem solved. This will never happen in the US because the American Propertied Class which controls the heroin trade also controls the government/police and organized crime.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  360. Biff says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Please explain why the South Korea did not emerge as a major military power, .

    Ahh, because South Korea is a vassal State of Washington, and it’s military. Also, Bang-for-Buck you have to hand it to the Hermit Kindom of North Korea.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  361. Astrofysicist Fred Hoyle was of the opinion that power does not exist:
    Fred Hoyle, ‘Home Is Where the Wind Blows, Chapters from a cosmologist’s life’, Mill Valley 1994
    One of the reasons the USSR collapsed was that the occupation costs in E Europe became unbearable.
    European Parliament member Verhofstadt yesterday demonstrated that Brussels has no power: asking on CNN Trump for help against Hungary, that refuses immigrants, and threw out Soros.
    Quite a few historians described the power of the British empire as bluff.
    Britons were flabbergasted when the little yellow men took Singapore

  362. @Okechukwu

    Okechukwu, excellent comment, particularly on the issue of the US Dollar as world reserve currency. Requirements for a nation to be the reserve currency include a deep bond market, an extensive body of case law governing business and reliable courts to adjudicate, and paradoxically a trade deficit. Neither China nor Russia will ever qualify.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  363. It all just sounds incredibly vile. I mean, hurray for China beating the US, like it was some soccer match underdog.

    But the thought of these vile faceless, cement and macadam, empty-headed, heartless, computerized, systemetized, everybody-gets-a-number, Vhere are your papers?, deracinated, gigantic totalitarian political entities, China, Russia, US, crushing the world forever under their computo-boot on behalf of the stupid rich people you all seem to love so much (since you love the “free market,” which isn’t free, and isn’t for you, or for me, or for anybody but those few stupid rich people) I can’t puke enough to express my bile.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  364. @Okechukwu

    Actually China has zero combat ready aircraft carriers. The Liaoning cannot launch a J15 armed with a full load of fuel. The Liaoning does serve an essential function, training ship crews and giving Chinese pilots practice landing on a carrier, the most difficult thing in naval aviation.

    • Replies: @bj
  365. @Bombercommand

    Heroin trade is controlled by Mexicans.

    Sicilian and Chinese gangsters controlling it from Turkish or Golden Triangle sources are a thing of the past.

    The US “propertied class” are not in the heroin trade.

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
    , @Vidi
    , @notanon
  366. It is too late to dream about being left alone. Chinese population size and ever increasing lack of resources needed to maintain stability with this sort of population won’t allow this. Military power is a tricky thing. I do not think China will ever get to true super powers status because of this factor and lack of soft power as you stated.

  367. @obwandiyag

    Visit the Philippines or Indonesia to see what happens when Chinese take over the global economy.

    We would all end up as squatters…which has happened in New Zealand and Vancouver to some degree.

    Meth labs would bubble all over the place.

  368. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Okechukwu

    No. There is influence in restaurants and street signs of course.

    But I am talking about popular culture. There are a lot of Chinese restaurants all over America, but that doesn’t mean Chinese culture has had much of a cultural impact. Same for Mexican restaurants and sign being only where Latino populations dominate.

    Of course there are things like Cinco De Mayo and Narco TV shows. But not much impact for being so close to a neighbor and having so many of them here.

    • Replies: @AP
  369. Parbes says:
    @reiner Tor

    Underlying reasons are the only ones that really matter. The rest is just sophistry, distraction and excuses (and highly hypocritical ones in this case, since the West European EU “elites” themselves are autocratic, undemocratic, scarcely responsive to the desires of their own native populations, and less and less committed to “the rule of law” in their own lands with each passing day).

    In other words – the whole thing is shameless, double standard-laden, hypocritical demonization, of the same type that the Western “elites” have been practicing for decades now against independent-minded national leaders around the world who refuse to knuckle under to them on a key issue of national importance.

    The same basic crap, the same playbook, every time, with superficial cosmetic variations in setting and presentation.

  370. @Jeff Stryker

    Organized crime, Mexican, Italian, or Chinese cannot operate in America without the permission of the American Propertied Class, and permission is not granted without payment.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  371. @Bombercommand

    Mexican crime and Asian crime (To a much lesser extent) exists because the propertied class DOESN’T CARE about the poor.

    That is why Bel Air is safer than East Los Angeles.

    Asian syndicates sell heroin to people whose families cannot come up with bail or rehab.

    Do the syndicates pay off the propertied class. Possibly. But much of the reason why Mestizo and black crime imperils poor white people is that the propertied class does not care.

    In the case of Mestizos however the GOP and big business wanted an open border and if rednecks in the Southwest were affected horrendously by it they don’t care.

    • Replies: @notanon
  372. @Okechukwu

    where do most Russians prefer to invest their money, in Shanghai or New York?

    Most prefer to invest in Russia. In this sense, Russia is not like China, though China may get there too someday soon.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  373. @Talha

    FOB Question for Asian (Or Indo-Aryan) posters-

    Why is it that being the son of a European immigrant or being a European in the United States makes you NO DIFFERENT than other Americans but being from China or Pakistan does.

    Trump’s father is in immigrant but he never made a huge deal of being “fresh off the boat” and his mother was an immigrant.

    How is it that Europeans can become enter the US with no difficulties integrating and Asians cannot.

    A Swiss banker or German engineer who moves to NYC is merely going “across the pond” while an Asian acts like he is in a different world.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Talha
  374. @Colin Wright

    Ceased being an issue a decade ago – see Myth 3:

    MYTH: The Chinese economy is dependent on exports for its economic growth, meaning that even if the US collapses it will bring the Chicoms down with it.

    REALITY: This is a complete myth. Whereas gross exports are at 40% of GDP, what matters are NET EXPORTS – which are at just 7% of GDP. (In fact this past quarter it even reported a trade deficit). Or if we look at it regionally, those Chinese regions which export a lot are all located on the southern and south-eastern coasts, and account for less than 25% of the population; the rest of the country is far more autarkic.

    Now true, a collapse in export demand will lead to a temporary rise in unemployment in those export-dependent regions. But the Chinese can do without the “heroic” American consumer. They’ll just consume more of their own production (as it increasingly the case anyway).

    • Replies: @notanon
  375. @Talha

    How could anyone mistake a Pakistani for an Arab? I can see an anti-Hindu slur being hurled at you but anti-Arab?

    Punjabi can sort of pass for Arab but most Pakistanis look South Asian.

    Where did your parents immigrate? Alabama?

  376. @anonymous coward

    Russians invest in Dubai, Cypress, Thailand.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  377. @S

    Fascinating.

    Did they really foresee aerial bombardment in 1853?

    • Replies: @S
  378. @gmachine1729

    I’m the child of first-generation Americans. So is Trump. His father was concieved in another country but he did complain of having difficulty integrating.

    Why can Europeans show up in the US and have no trouble integrating? Swiss bankers in NYC and Irish construction foreman in Boston do not complain of being unable to integrate.

    Heck, European-born Jews more or less TOOK OVER New York City.

    So why is it that Asians feel so unable to integrate compared to immigrants from Europe.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @notanon
  379. @Jeff Stryker

    Serious ones don’t. In any case, that’s a drop in the bucket for Russia.

    And Cyprus is not “investment”, these are offshore schemes for greasing the flow of money.

    Surely you don’t think that Americans are “investing” into the Cayman Islands?

  380. Anonymous[329] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Jeff, are you serious?

    America is a racial country, meaning that even if you are white from Germany you will be treated more or less the same as a native white person.

    An Asian, be it brown or yellow, is always going to be seen as an outsider whether they were born here or not.

    And by the way. If you want to talk about being whiney and not integrating, just look at all the white expats like yourself that move to Asia. You guys are total hypocrites because you don’t integrate the least bit and you insist on being treated better than the natives.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  381. Biff says:
    @S

    One past comparison between America and Rome was made in 1853 when the book The New Rome was published in the United States.

    and its land forces are to be overcome by aerial bombardment via the ability of the US to project its air power globally.

    Bwaaa! Before the airplane was invented. Cheese with that whopper?

    • Replies: @S
  382. @DFH

    Of course, watching childish cartoons is much more spiritually fulfilling than having a family.

    Try the Twelve Kingdoms presented in anime form. While maybe not at the Fengshen Yanyi level, I would rate it better than LOTR. Just because cartoons in the west are childish don’t mean its the same rest of the world.

    Imagine dissing an Indonesian wayang rendition of a Hindu epic as a shitty and worse Sesame Street given the puppets are 2D.

  383. Anonymous[329] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Jeff, I can assure you that Asians do a much better job of integrating into society than white people do when they immigrate. I deal with white people who immigrate to Mexico all the time and they do not speak the language, integrate with locals beyond their woman, and they expect to be treated better than natives.

    Besides, your whole premise is wrong as Europeans of certain type faced massive discrimination and difficulties immigrating to this country. It is only recently that Europeans are accepted and come here without to many problems with a major reason being that there aren’t that many of them.

  384. @Bombercommand

    Okechukwu is a troll who makes up implausible stories to buttress his Joy Reid affirmative action Kremlinologist-level takes on Russia, while making stupendously stupid claims about my own personal life and opinions.

    I will consider addressing his “arguments” seriously when he mans up and repatriates to his Nigerian homeland. But for now he can go fuck himself.

  385. @Anonymous

    When Indian males called me a “Gora” I didn’t care. I just ignored them. I was getting paid no matter what and I was still young enough for Desi girls to think I was cute then. I spent years in and out of India.

    I’ve had no problem integrating into Asia countries. The few altercations I was in were robberies in the Philippines.

    I did not go into my bungalow and slit my wrists because I was called a “round eye” or my wallet was lifted.

    In fact I found Indian and Asian insults kind of funny LOL.

    • Replies: @yeah no
  386. @Talha

    Arabs have less respect for a Pakistani or Indian Muslim than they do for a white person, much of the time.

    Religion is no part of this.

    Look at Dubai.

    • Replies: @Talha
  387. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    I personally feel myself to be integrated just fine. I only mentioned certain bad instances that happened to let gmachine know that I went through some bad experiences. Don’t get me wrong, the vast, vast majority of my experiences were overwhelmingly positive – even after 9-11. Americans are one of the most open and welcoming people – to foreigners – I’ve ever come across. But some kids at school were jerks. Maybe if I was White, but fat they would have made fun of me for my weight instead.

    I’d rather dwell on the mostly positive than the few negative instances.

    As far as looks; I’ve been told (when I was younger) that I resembled Pete Sampras so do with that what you will. Even Pakistanis think I am Persian or Moroccan, and at UCLA I was approached by Jews and Latinos thinking I was one of them.

    I grew up mostly around Central and Southern California but school kids are usually ignorant of details.

    Peace.

  388. spandrell says: • Website
    @reiner Tor

    Shh, he’s trying to recruit our Duke into a Chinese American conspiracy.

  389. spandrell says: • Website

    I’m a bit late for this but I think Karlin is completely delusional.

    China is way more fragile than people think. I’m willing to bet it will never achieve the US GDP in nominal terms, let alone 3x.

  390. @Anonymous

    Your Indios do not exactly “integrate” into the US any better than Americans in Latin America who are mostly the US dregs anyhow-druggies, rednecks, fugitives wanted in the States.

    A white is safer in Asia then in a barrio IN THE US around Chicano. I’m much safer in Asian cities than US cities roamed by “Brown Pride” or MS-13. Or the US ghetto.

    MILLIONS of Europeans have poured into the US in the last 100 years and few of them had any problems. Italians had a reputation as violent thieves and thugs but this was sort of earned.

  391. @Talha

    How can a Punjabi or Patthan pass for Persian?

    I spent years in Dubai and India though never Pakistani, of course.

    Which “Americans” did you have a conflict with? Hispanics? Irish-Americans? Jews?

    Persians TOOK OVER parts of California. So it cannot be that difficult for Middle Easterners in California.

    • Replies: @Talha
  392. @anonymous

    Have you considered how prematurely showing strength in military spending and confrontation will result in an early response from the US that could cripple China’s ability to clear the final 15-20 years before becoming nearly economically impervious?

    We will do it like it like in the old days, when we quietly stockpiling crossbow bolts, food, etc and then when there was enough, we deploy.

    So now the great solution is, we quietly stockpile J-20s, hypersonics, AIP subs, DF-41s, satellite killer missiles, carriers, landing craft, etc and assume the supercomputer chips embargo was a one off thing and that the US will allow us to grow and grow and grow…

    The good ole days…

  393. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    This is generally the feeling I get from the Gulf countries, but I do not get that same feeling from the Arab-speaking Muslims from places like Egypt (where I have traveled) or Syria or Morocco (who many Gulf Arabs also look down on). When I was on Hajj with my mother, an elderly woman from Syria asked us where we were originally from and when we told her, she said emphatically; “We love Pakistan.”

    If some Gulf Arabs have pride and arrogance about being superior, no sweat off my back, they can answer to God for why they thought it was cool to not remedy an obvious spiritual disease.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  394. Michael7 says:

    True, but up to a point. Chinese songs are very melodious and catchy. Japanese songs are cacophonous.

    Not a chance. Japanese musicians are (currently) far better artisans in every way. Whereas the Chinese seem to have an affinity for by-the-numbers ballads and lame rap/hip-hop, the Japanese have developed a smart, sophisticated sound over the course of several decades. The latter absorbed a wide range of Western influences and successfully fused it with their unique culture, which has always had strong artistic tendencies. Pop, jazz, rock, bossa nova, AOR …you name it, they create it. Japanese artists such as Ryuichi Sakamoto, Tatsuro Yamashita, Haruomi Hosono, Taeko Ohnuki, and so many others are renown all over the world. Where are the similar impressive Chinese artists? While there’s no arguing that singers like Leslie Cheung (RIP) and Andy Lau (both actors as well) have good voices, none of the songwriting that I’ve heard has left a lasting impression, save for a few oddities here and there, such as a couple of tunes by Ken Hung. Actually, now that I think about it, it’s kind of funny how the most memorable contemporary Chinese music that I can think of is the soundtrack composed by Joseph Koo to John Woo’s film, A Better Tomorrow, which stars Ti Lung, Chow Yun-Fat and Leslie Cheung.

    Unless the Chinese are given true freedom to develop artistically and cease with the constant bombardment of government propaganda and censorship, a genuine Chinese cultural renaissance will not occur.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @spandrell
  395. @Anonymous

    I think Indios from Mexico have the most difficulty of any race integrating into American society-especially Aztecs.

  396. @Talha

    Syrians are essentially Mediterraneans as are North Africans. These people are culturally more similar to Italians or Greeks than to Kuwaiti or Omani.

    • Replies: @Talha
  397. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    I’m neither Pathan nor Persian, my family migrated to Pakistan from parts of Uttar Pradesh.

    You seem to think school age boys can figure out nuances in ethnicities, why?

    The people who gave me trouble (again, a very small number) were mostly whites followed by Latinos. Though I had plenty of White and Latino friends growing up.

    Persians mostly congregated to a few spots, there were tons of them around UCLA. Many of them didn’t like religious or traditional Muslims, they had fled from that after the Shah was toppled.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  398. @Talha

    I could care less when Indians laughed and called me a Gora.

    The racism that some Hindutva feel towards “goras” is FAR worse than the reverse. They’re still pissed off about the British Raj.

    And would I be as safe in Karachi as you are in California?

    Doubtful.

    • Replies: @Talha
  399. @Thulean Friend

    The myth of the ‘inferior’ Dravidians really is outdated.

    I hear parboiled rice is better for the brain while wheat is better for the body, see them Punjabis…
    Sadly most of the rice eaten by those Chinese who have rice as a staple are parboiled.

  400. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Yes, it seems to be the Gulf Arabs that have a delusional sense of self-importance. Not all of them mind you, just enough…it’s seriously jahil behavior.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  401. @Daniel Chieh

    Ultimately the problem is a low trust culture – which wasn’t the case historically but has increasingly defined modern China.

    mai gou rou gua yang dou.

    You are lionising us Chinese.

  402. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    I could care less when Indians laughed and called me a Gora.

    Best thing to do is ignore.

    They’re still pissed off about the British Raj.

    Hindutva are still pissed off about the Ghaznavids.

    Doubtful.

    Agreed.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  403. J says: • Website
    @reiner Tor

    We should remember the wisdom of our sages: the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

  404. BB753 says:
    @Talha

    ” Bring your language, food, poetry, etc. but don’t bring your flag – or go back.”

    Too bad Muslims bring their their toxic religion along too.

    • Replies: @Talha
  405. @AaronB

    The Confucianists will remain what they are.
    Why are you expecting otherwise?

    Merely inform those who think all of China is because of the Rujia and then suffices.

  406. Talha says:
    @BB753

    I know, we’re gonna get in the way of pride parades and all that fun stuff – I can see why that would suck for some people.

    If you are an American citizen, you can vote to change it so Islam is prohibited (then we will have to leave) – that’s the beauty of America. I would suggest contacting your local representatives to get things going.

    If you aren’t an American citizen, feel free to pound sand about it.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    , @BB753
  407. @Talha

    “Whites”

    Goras at leas know the difference between an Urdu-speaking Punjabi and a Parsee.

    You cannot even tell me if these “whites” were Irish-American or Armenian-Californians or Italians.

    To you, we are all English unless we are Italian-American who are quasi-Latino.

  408. Mr. Hack says:
    @Michael7

    I would also add Kitraro and Sadao Watanabe to your list of excellent Japanese musicians!

    • Replies: @Michael7
  409. @Talha

    I doubt you know the ethnic backgrounds of the “whites” that you purport mistook a Punjabi for an Arab.

    A Gora is a Gora to a South Asian, though Greeks occupied your country in ancient times.

    As for Hindutvas, you rarely meet one outside of India.

    • Replies: @Talha
  410. nznz says: • Website

    What exactly makes Karlin think that China can top Taiwan’s per capita GDP, which is less than half of the US? China’s economic growth rate will slow down to 2 to 3 percent once it reaches a per capita GDP level of 16000 to 18000 USD, the same growth rate as Taiwan now, with the same error capita GDP level as Slovakia, the richer coastal areas will balanced out by the much poorer interior provinces, so the per capita GDP level at which China will top out will be significantly lower than Taiwan’s, at this is it will only have a slightly larger economy than the US before growth slows down to US levels.

  411. @RadicalCenter

    And our office has about half a dozen young women in their late teens to late 20s, with whom I’ve talked extensively over years, and they have never mentioned anime or jap culture as an interest.

    Otakus are not mainstream in Japan. Sub culture yes but not that esteemed.

  412. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    Not only Mexican food either. Come to the Southwest at Christmastime and experience the beautiful Mariachi music or Mexian ethnic dance troupes – beautiful stuff!

  413. @Talha

    Pakistanis actually integrate MUCH BETTER in the US than the United Kingdom.

    This could be down to the aggressiveness of white Americans compared to UK whites-which Pakistani wants to try and “groom” 12 year old girls from tough Armenian or Irish-American areas of California.

    One way or the other, Pakistanis fit in fast into American life compared to Bradford or somewhere.

    It is Italians whose culture has caused tremendous problems with organized crime. I don’t doubt that Muslims would impose their religion on the US if they could, but they lack the balls to do so. Tough Irish-Americans and Latinos in California would tell them to f*ck off.

    Nor would Iranian Jews put up with it.

    The US is sort of case of forced assimilation. Of course Latinos come in such vast numbers that they can withstand the pressure, but there aren’t ENOUGH Muslims to resist the pressures of assimilation.

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Ali Choudhury
  414. @Talha

    Money will enable that. Pakistan is a poor country that provides the labor for Gulf Arab countries. Kuwaiti and Emirate can sneer at their impoverishment.

  415. @AaronB

    I have never seem it as extreme as gmachine and his ilk,

    Go reddit, easternsunrising.

    Also see this

    https://www.quora.com/Why-are-there-so-many-Chinese-American-and-Asian-American-writers-expressing-their-outrage-at-the-qipao-a-teenager-wore-to-her-prom-when-all-of-the-Chinese-I-ve-spoken-to-don-t-see-it-as-cultural-appropriation-at

    The Chinese Americans, just like the Native Indians and the African Americans (who came from hundreds of warring tribes), came to the US as a deeply divided bunch – the pro-KMT group in the 50’s to the 70’s, the anti-CCP group in the 80’s and 90’s, and the latest, pro-CCP group in the last 20 years. Some of them looked around, and saw that the Jewish, the Irish, and the Italian Americans were able to gain a better deal because they are a more united political bloc, (if not nationally, at least locally), so there was some tentative effort to build up this “Chinese” angle as a way to unified the deeply-divided Chinese Americans, playing a bit with “identity politics”, in order to obtain more political power in the US. An example of this is Gary Locke This effort has largely failed. If it were successful, people would be talking about quotas for college admissions, seats in the boardrooms and the Congress, instead of a bit of clothing!

  416. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Okechukwu, excellent comment, particularly on the issue of the US Dollar as world reserve currency. Requirements for a nation to be the reserve currency include a deep bond market, an extensive body of case law governing business and reliable courts to adjudicate, and paradoxically a trade deficit. Neither China nor Russia will ever qualify.

    I wholeheartedly agree with Bombercommand’s assessment of Okechukwu’s statement. Having points of view innimical to your own is not a good reason to label somebody a troll, and then ignore their very cogent opinions. Anatoly, you’re beginning to resemble a politician that never answers a direct question, instead of a good writer or journalist that doesn’t hesitate to take on the tough questions head on.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  417. @Thulean Friend

    Punjabi and Kashmiri are better-looking than a black Dravidian and then of course you have the caste-system imposed by the original Ukrainian or Caspian Aryan invaders.

    In Kerala, where I spent much of my time in India.

    St Thomas Christians, actually some offshoot of Jews who showed up who knows when and who knows why, formed the upper class.

    Most of the money in South India is new and a result of Gulf remissions or Silicone Valley outsourcing.

    Prior to the tech industry South India was relatively poor. They have always been a race of migrant workers to the Gulf Arab countries.

  418. DFH says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Pakistanis actually integrate MUCH BETTER in the US than the United Kingdom.

    It’s because they are not the same ‘Pakistanis’ in both cases. Those in America are much, much more likely to be from the educated or upper classes of Pakistani society because of the more restricted immigration, I will not express my full feelings on the ones in Britain, but they are very different.
    The only Pakistani I have ever been friends with was born in America and both of his parents had been to MIT, for example.
    If you compare Somalis, who are basically from the same refugee source in both countries, I think they are about equally awful in both.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  419. Sounds about right to me.

  420. This is absolutely ridiculous. The Pro-Chinese bias is just dripping from this article. I usually enjoy your writings, but let me enlighten you on the current state of China, since you don’t seem very informed on this issue.

    1. Economic Power

    First of all, PPP is an extremely poor metric for measuring up the size of economy. PPP is better suited for per capita comparisons, because PPP gives a better sense of how everyday people are living, but it is not as useful when used as an aggregate data. For that purpose, nominal GDP is better (Also, nobody really seriously regards India as the third largest economy, even though it kinda is on the basis of PPP.)

    But even nominal GDP does not tell the full story. Because it’s just silly to think that a nation’s economic power lies in GDP, which is basically the total goods and services produced in a single year, rather than in accumulated wealth.

    It’s like saying person A is more economically powerful than person B, because person A has higher yearly income. OK, but what if person B is three times richer than person A in terms of wealth? Because that’s exactly the case for US vs China if you compare their national wealth.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

    The World Bank also agrees with this opinion.

    https://qz.com/1194051/a-new-world-bank-project-shows-that-wealth-not-gdp-is-the-best-gauge-of-a-countrys-progress/

    Don’t forget that when Great Britain crushed Qing Dynasty in two successive Opium Wars, China had multiple times larger GDP than Britain at the time, according to Angus Maddison. GDP is just not a reliable indicator of true economic power, much less national power.

    Also, China is nothing like South Kora. China has an extreme levels of income inequality and development disparity between the coastal cities and the interior. It also has a quickly aging population, a serious problem that Japan and S.Korea never had to face when they were in the process of developing. The level of corruption, nepotism, property bubble, government debt, and environmental degradation are also much worse in China than in South Korea.

    Lastly, the whole supercomputer frenzy is also extremely overrated. Supercomputers are just extension of a regular computer, the only difference being its speed and memory. It’s just basically faster calculator, because hardware performance is nothing without a powerful software. What a supercomputer actually does on its own is not as impressive as its name suggests.

    The only reason US is not hellbent on investing in supercomputers as much as China is because there is simply no use for them (And so does China https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-bevy-of-supercomputers-goes-unused-2014-07-15)

    China is doing it to win the ‘who has the bigger dick’ contest and show off, which is a typical communist behavior. But why should we care that much? Do people really care about which country produces the fastest cars? Not me.

    The real game-changer in computing technology is quantum computers. Quantum computers have potential to be thousand times more powerful than regular supercomputers, and guess who is leading the quantum computing research? United States.

    The tired old pattern of the West inventing new technology and Asians perfecting it is once again playing out in this US vs China dynamic. We already know how this story ends (see Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, etc.), so chill out.

    • Agree: Ali Choudhury
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  421. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @AP

    There is Chinese food everywhere too, but I am talking about cultural influences. There isn’t much Chinese influence nor is there much Mexican influence in culture.

  422. @DFH

    White Americans themselves come from tough European peasant stock and a Somali is much less likely in Minnesota to try and rape a scrappy Finnish-American of lumberjack in St Paul.

    Much is written about “gun control” but Somali in the US know that a car-burning spree in Minneapolis would result in white cops blasting them and beating them down with military force…this keeps them somewhat in check.

    Pakistanis and Bangladeshis in NYC are less likely to try and groom some Irish-American girl because her roughneck cop or fireman father will react worse than the put-upon English proles stuck in the Bradford ghetto.

    White Americans are more pro-actively aggressive than Europeans.

    Also, Muslims are aware on some level that Jews wield a tremendous degree of influence and power in America. As much as white rednecks despise this, it keeps Muslims in check to some degree.

    However, I fundamentally agree. An ocean is an excellent vetting process.

  423. @Mr. Hack

    He has demonstrated himself to be a stupid lying troll on several past occasions (one example linked), so I am not going to waste my time engaging him.

    If there are other people who want me to address some specific points of his – all of which are either flat out wrong, highly misrepresented, or broadly correct but falsely and maliciously attributed to me – then I will address them.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  424. Yee says:

    Daniel Chieh,

    “If social credit works out, a shrine should be erected to Qian Xuesen.”

    Daniel, just curious, are you related to Qian Xuesen?

    Qian Xuesen could probably take some credit if China wins the global financial war, too. It seems he was invited to work on the subject, in 1991. Talk about planning long…

    They take this financial stuff very seriously since even Qian Xuesen was asked to work on it.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  425. 2. Military Power

    You are ridiculously wrong from the first sentence. No, military power is not a function of economic power. Again, let me remind you that Great Britain humiliated Qing Dynasty despite having much smaller economy. Also, North Korea, everyone?

    The military technological gap is still massive, but more importantly, when was the last time that China actually won a war against a powerful nation? When was the last time that China has fought at all? They have close to zero experience in modern military warfare, and most of the Chinese generals are clueless in terms of military strategy.

    I’m not an expert on this issue, so let me quote from an article:

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/not-so-scary-why-chinas-military-paper-tiger-14085

    Beijing has no experience whatsoever of modern war. Its last experience of armed conflict was in 1979 when it abysmally failed to teach Vietnam a so-called ‘lesson’. Border scuffles with India and the USSR in the 1960s and sending peasant armies into the Korean War in the 1950s scarcely rate as modern combat.

    Commentators in Australia repeat a lot of breathless assertions about China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities. And there can be no doubt that operating in the approaches to China is becoming more dangerous, particularly given the sort of military mass that China can accumulate close to home. But do we actually think that the Americans are sitting on their hands doing nothing technologically in areas such as hypersonic vehicles, railguns, stealth, drones and cyber-attack?

    In key areas of military technology China is still a good 20 years behind the U.S. Its anti submarine warfare capability is marginal and many of its submarines are noisy. China lacks the necessary quieting and propulsion technologies to build anything remotely comparable to an U.S. or Russian nuclear submarine. Even the newest Chinese Jin-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines are louder than the 1970s era Soviet Delta III SSBN. And the forthcoming type 95 nuclear submarine will be louder than the late-1980s Soviet titanium-hulled Akula, according to U.S. sources.

    China’s air defence capabilities have gaping deficiencies against any technologically advanced enemy. Moreover, China still relies heavily on Russia for military reverse engineering and supply of high-performance military jet engines, which it has failed to master for 30 years.

    Beijing has made important strides with ballistic missile technologies, but the DF-21 has never destroyed a naval target moving at battle speed . Moreover, it relies crucially on intelligence satellites and long-range over-the-horizon radar for target acquisition . Those are soft targets and vulnerable to preemptive U.S. military strikes.

    It isn’t clear in any case, according to the Pentagon, whether China has the capability to collect accurate targeting information and pass it to launch platforms in time for successful strikes against distant targets at sea.

    As for China’s ICBM capabilities, such as the DF-5B with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), this is hardly a breakthrough nuclear technology. In 1974, as Head of the National Assessments Staff, I was briefed by the CIA about MIRVs on the Soviet Union’s SS-18 ICBM. That was remarkable technological advance 40 years ago.

    There are some Chinese military officers and academics who are starting to brag about China’s nuclear war-fighting capabilities. While China has a reasonably secure second-strike capability, it’s one of the most vulnerable large powers to all-out nuclear war because of its population density and its distribution along the eastern seaboard. Just because China has a population 1.4 billion people doesn’t mean that it would survive a massive nuclear attack.That’s a strong argument, in my view, for the U.S. to keep a large nuclear attack force, both operational and in active reserve, of several thousand strategic warheads.

    All this is to argue that we need to put China’s emerging military capabilities into some sensible comparative analysis with those of the U.S. and in historical context. We need to remember that the U.S. is the most innovative country in the world and isn’t standing still in the face of Chinese military advancements, many of which are seriously deficient.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  426. anon[179] • Disclaimer says:

    Interesting analysis.

    Chinese societies are a lot less cohesive and conformist than Korean or Japanese societies. Partially due its size, the Chinese have always been far more selfish as a people than the Japanese. Chinese societies are all dog-eat-dog, every man for himself, dishonest, rude and thoroughly unpleasant societies. That’s why throughout its history it’s always been plagued by corruption. Even the Chinese can’t stand themselves, even in China they complain about rude Chinese tourists. The first thing every Chinese wants to do when he gets rich is to emigrate. Unfortunately they are now emigrating in such large numbers, they are essentially recreating these unpleasant Chinese societies in the West.

    It is also why Japan has much more soft power around the world. The Japanese comparatively are much more polite, honest, law-abiding and civilized. Korea is somewhere in between. Korean societies are more cohesive due to its small size, but individual Koreans behave more like the Chinese, except their language doesn’t sound as harsh. The Chinese language, especially the dialects, are very harsh sounding.

    The only way for the Chinese to shake their thousand year old corrupt, dishonest, rude and unpleasant culture is for them to adopt English as their primary language — like Singapore. That’s why Chinese Americans who grew up in the US and speak fluent English tend to be much more likable and civilized than their FOB counterparts.

  427. Rich says:
    @Anonymous

    The North Vietnamese did not defeat the Americans militarily. The North was on its knees begging for terms in 1972, which the US granted. Two years after the US pulled its troops out of Vietnam, the North broke the agreement and invaded the South. Because of domestic political problems, the US didn’t honor its military agreement with the South and the Reds were allowed to win. Had the US continued to fight, or even just given the promised support to the South, the South would have remained free from the communists.

    • Replies: @BlackPajama
  428. anon[179] • Disclaimer says:

    When it happens, I predict that China will be a much more peaceful superpower than the US. The US is now essentially an offshoot of Israel. Jews control this country and they are a belligerent lot with a big chip on their shoulders. They convinced themselves as well as the western world who believe in their God that they are the Chosen, and they will lead us to the promised land. Our entire foreign policy is geared towards protecting Israel, the Holy Land, which is what got us into all the foreign wars that directly led to the migrant crisis in Europe. Jews are also a paranoid people therefore they always feel the need to contain any competition. At the moment Russia is the biggest competition because Putin doesn’t drink the Jewish neocon + liberal Kool-Aid.

    The Chinese are not a people without a homeland or are from a tiny country surrounded by hostile neighbors. They have no such insecurity. Throughout its history China has never started a war against another country, except for a minor territorial dispute with India which ended quickly. I think the only reason they are building up their military is to be able to defend themselves in case of a confrontation with the US. The belligerent Jews who run this country will not take 2nd place lightly. They always need to be top dog. War may be imminent and if there is a war, it will be started by the US. As Mel Gibson said, Jews start all wars.

    • Replies: @myself
  429. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Fair enough (you’re the boss here!).

    Bombercommand and Okkechukwu both point out that the US’s ability to still control the world currency reserve with the US dollar places it at the top of the heap, and this is not likely to change for many good reasons already covered.

    They also bring up the US ability to dominate in world legal disputes due to its history of excelling at such matters, and dominating in representation in world court arbitration organizations (as does Alfred McCoy)

    McCoy also points out that China most likely will never be able to replace the US as a cultural all-star due to the parochialism of its language and culture. Have you read his article? Contrast it to your own for an interesting and different point of view.

    Also, ‘ChinaExposed’ recently left an excellent differing point of view than your own, hopefully, he’s not a ‘troll’ too? :-)

    An excellent topic though, and one covered by more than just you and McCoy at this blogsite!

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  430. @anon

    I don’t find Koreans particularly polite or soft-spoken. They are rude, crude, impolite barbairans compared to the Chinese or Japanese.

    A great deal of Japanese success was do to vassal state economics after World War II when the US turned it into the first outsourcing economy and ironically 3o years later the Japanese put the US workers in jeopardy. Most of you are too young to remember this trade war.

    China’s power is mercantile and networked. Japanese don’t control the economies of Southeast Asia, the Chinese do. Korea is not running the Filipino economy, Chinese are.

    So China is the soft power.

    Japan is actually NOTHING. Its an island of no significance off the coast or Russia.

  431. @Yee

    Very, very, very indirectly. My father knew someone who took a class from him, I understand that we thought that he had Nationalist sympathies and since we were relatively high in the KMT, I take their word for it.

    Obviously that all went to crap.

  432. 3. Cultural Power

    You can pick and choose data in order to make China seem like a scientific research superpower, but the reality is quite different. First of all, China only does well in terms of quantity of research paper publications, but when it comes to quality (such as citations per document) it lags far behind US, and overall still has ways to go (It’s the same thing with Chinese patents, by the way.)

    For instance, according to national H-index ranking China is only 13th, coming behind Spain.

    https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?order=h&ord=desc

    Or, in the HCR (Highly Cited Researchers) ranking,

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/clarivate-analytics-names-the-worlds-most-impactful-scientific-researchers-with-the-release-of-the-2017-highly-cited-researchers-list-300556259.html

    United States has massive lead at 1,661 highly cited researchers vs China’s 237. Sure, China is climbing fast, but it’s still behind United Kingdom, let alone the United States.

    The U.S. also has majority of the world’s best universities.

    Also, how many Fields Medal winners did China produce? I understand why China has only few Nobel prizes because it usually takes time, but Fields Medal is given to the best mathematicians in the world under the age of 40. China has zero, whereas India and Iran already have two each. Based on IMO results, China should be producing the best mathematicians left and right, but is that happening?

    Never underestimate the lack of creativity and intellectual curiosity on the part of East Asians (and especially Chinese.) It’s a much bigger problem than people generally assume.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
    , @notanon
  433. @random rand

    They are “doves.” They do exist, they were driven from the Party as of 2014 or so.

  434. @AaronB

    “MISERABLE IN ASIA”

    White men CHOOSE to live in Asia and would eat through your rectum to get there-none of the white men living in Asia feel a shred of bitterness about not having to be around the sheer awfulness of the West.

    It is not sex tourism. A man can pay for sex anywhere. It is a desperation to simply get as far away from the awfulness of SJW, the culture wars, divorce rape, the Jewish Question, whiggers, blacks and Mestizos as possible.

    Asians go to North America for purely economic reasons. They don’t care about white history. Their constitutional rights don’t matter. Freedom is unimportant. They are in the US for money.

    White males are in Asia for quality of life and increasingly white females. The US and Europe simply are no longer nice places for white people.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @bucky
  435. @anon

    ” The only way for the Chinese to shake their thousand year old corrupt, dishonest, rude and unpleasant culture ”
    Obviously not a clue about the history of China.
    Seismic instruments long before anyone in the west even thought about such things.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Needham

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  436. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    don’t know where this is all going…but here goes…

    Goras at leas know the difference between an Urdu-speaking Punjabi and a Parsee.

    Some do and some don’t.

    I’m not Punjabi.

    I doubt you know the ethnic backgrounds of the “whites” that you purport mistook a Punjabi for an Arab.

    I doubt those Whites know their own ethnic backgrounds. Rarely have I personally met a White person that is pure English or Irish or Italian (or don’t have a little mix of Native American in them) unless they are a recent import.

    I don’t know where you got the impression that I expected people to figure out my ethnic identity; especially when plenty of Pakistanis themselves mistake me for Persian or Arab.

    This could be down to the aggressiveness of white Americans

    Yeah – many White Americans don’t mess around.

    I don’t doubt that Muslims would impose their religion on the US if they could, but they lack the balls to do so. Tough Irish-Americans and Latinos in California would tell them to f*ck off.

    If you mean America adopting some form of Shariah law system then you are making the same mistake plenty of others do. Islam is a religion, not an ethnicity. There is a Shariah system imposed in Malaysia, by ethnic Malays – not Arabs or Persians. If Shariah eventually comes to America, it will be precisely because tough Irish-Americans and Latinos are already Muslim and calling for it. Do a search with the words Latinos converting to Islam and tell us what you find.

    but there aren’t ENOUGH Muslims to resist the pressures of assimilation.

    I don’t know where you get this. Pew has done relatively recent studies on the phenomena and concluded that Muslims in America are basically staying at the same numbers – about as many switch in as are leaving. The corollary is that the ones who switch out tend to go SJW like this lady and have no kids:

    While the ones who switch in marry and have kids.

    Peace.

  437. Great photo from Wei Geisheing, Aerial Shanghai by Crane Operator 2 thanks!

    Felt great too, to read this densely packed article – reminded me of a video I once saw, but never managed to trace back: A 12 minutes helicopter-flight over Seoul, from the eastern to the western boundaries. I watched every minute, couldn’t get enough. We live in days of the (technical) miracles and wonders…

  438. bj says:
    @Bombercommand

    Aircraft carrier battle groups are obsolete in the age of stand off missile technology.

  439. @Felix Keverich

    GDP comparisons miss something very important. Russia is actually in a rather small club. https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2017/10/12/exchange-rating-russia-down-and-out/

  440. AaronB says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Relax, I definitely agree, I’ve spent a ton of time in Asia and love it. Although large parts of it are converging to the West and becoming less interesting, esp China, I don’t think they’ll ever make the ful transition.

    But it’s quite common for whites to have a weird love/hate relationship with Asia. Arthur Koestler wrote about this in his time in Japan.

    For instance, he wrote how utterly exasperated he was that the Japanese would never give straight answers and use ambiguous and fuzzy language, especially when it might give offense, and refused to take up one-sided positions or take reality quite so seriously – yet he never quite understood the relationship of this trait to things he admired about Japan and lamented the lack of in the West, like its high level of social polish and relative tranquility and freedom from anxiety and social aggression, and he never understood the philosophical basis for this in Buddhism.

    But I found that attitude quite common among whites in Asia – they’re obviously drawn to the place because its so different from the West, but then try and change it into the West. Asia obviously challenges their Western conceptions on a deep level even as on an instinctive level they find the lifestyle so much more satisfying. They’re torn.

    There’s also tons of moaning about their position as outsiders and not being fully accepted blah blah how everyone’s racist against whites.

    Not nearly as bad as Asians in the West but its bad and ridiculous.

    It’s perfectly natural – without a larger perspective or religious community, its not so easy being gradually alien minority.

    They leave their countries to take up positions as outsiders in a foreign society with all the privileges that entails then complain they are outsiders not accorded the full privilege of a native.

    They clearly enjoy the new social atmosphere but try and change it to what they fled from back home.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    , @Anonymous
  441. @Biff

    You’re like the third person to tell me that, and the second person to use the word “vassal”. LOL Groupthink is strong in this community.

  442. @AaronB

    [proselytizes Stoicism]

    • LOL: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @AaronB
  443. @Jeff Stryker

    70% of the Pakistanis in the UK originated from a rural, backward and largely illiterate region called Azad Kashmir. They were imported for use as unskilled labour in industrial towns and have pretty dismal employment prospects now. Most of the dysfunctional behaviour you read about i.e. drug-dealing, child-grooming etc. is perpetuated by them and their descendants. Which isn’t surprising since sexual abuse is rife in rural areas. Pakistanis in the US are mostly from middle-class, educated families which is why it is easy for them to integrate.

  444. @jilles dykstra

    Jesus, there are so many clueless Sinophiles on this website, it’s unbelievable. Do you really want to play ‘who invented what’ game? Because ancient Greeks and Romans also have some things to offer.

    And please, don’t ever quote Joseph Needham ever again. That guy was a communist fraud who was blacklisted by the U.S. government, and had all sorts of political motivations behind his academic work. And just like most leftists, he hated the Western civilization and married a Chinese woman.

    • Replies: @Jason Liu
  445. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Stoicism has often been compared to Buddhism, but there are major differences.

    The stoic grimly endures a harsh fate – the Buddhist with smiling serenity lets go of attachments. The stoic’s main concern is the material things of this world – the Buddhist has a smiling unconcern with them.

    Stoicicism may be seen as Buddhism without supernaturalism, and thus degenerated into mere grim endurance rather than joyful giving up.

    There is a reason Christianity and not stoicism swept over the West – stoicism does not offer enough emotional and spiritual liberation.

    Still, it is noble and admirable and worth studying.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  446. Che Guava says:

    Anatoly,

    I have yet to read the whole of your article, it has clearly been the magnet for fools, so you are unlikely to read this. From what I have read so far, your analysis of now is sound.

    However, the old trade wars of the U.S.A. against Japan were hideous, and simply attacks.

    The developement of larger RAM storage (not large by modern standards) was in advance of any other because we had the technical means, bigger memory devices were required to store the glyphs (people were not satisfied with only modified Latin script and grade 2 primary school level characters).

    So there was a natural impetus, which had a successful response. The U.S. response, in turn to scream ‘dumping’ and mount a trade war, like a child having a tantrum.

    Another good example was the TRON operating system. The most advanced that would run on common hardware at the time.

    The education authorities said they would be producing the OS to run on machines from NEC, and a few other companies, to be the main education in computing in schools.

    This is precisely the same as Apple corpse’s self-placement in education, only somewhat the inverse: while Apple corpse did it for their own profits, via presumably bureaucrats, the developers of TRON did it as a more pure project.

    The OS was far superior to any Apple or MS OS (of course, this is also true of many developed in Europe at times before either of those were gaining monopoly status, and of Unix and then Linux, but neither of those would run well on consumer hardware of the time).

    With great hypocrisy (given their open support for Apple and MS in so many ways), U.S.A. trade officials went mad making threats and stamping their feet about the TRON in education project, so it never went ahead.

    There are many more such examples.

    Some would recall the anti-Toyota campaign of a few years ago, there was nothing there, when the attackers ran out of string on their many lies, they were quickly becoming silent.

  447. S says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Yes, they did. The two writers of the book (Tbeodore Poesche and Charles Goepp) were apparently describing what in time would be zeppelins (ie dirigibles). They talk about the balloons of the day being just ‘a toy’.

    The writing of Poesche and Goepp and their emphasis on the importance of the future US/UK bloc domination of not just the oceans, but more importantly of the air, compares quite closely to the modern writings of Alexander Dugin, with the major exception that he emphasizes the importance of Russia’s dominating the land.

    I’ve linked The New Rome below along with some commentaries on the book. The book’s opening pages describes its contents as ‘a horoscope’, ‘a map of the future of mankind’, and ‘what must be’. I suppose I see the book less in terms of being a ‘horoscope’ or as a 1912 commentary describes it ‘a political prophecy’, but more as a political plan. It’s a bit dry in places but worth the time to read for its remarkable geopolitical insight.

    Mind you, I’m not particularly for what the writers are describing as I think empires are in general a bad business.

    What I do wonder is if in some old Russian libraries or museums is a dust covered long forgotten 19th century volume perhaps called The Third Rome which describes how Russia (possibly aligned in the future with China) is to defeat a future Anglo-Saxon power bloc to create for itself a global empire.

    Perhaps someone reading this thread has some insight on that?

    ‘It [air power] will give us the victory over Russian continentalism. American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons, to use our own expressive slang, ‘like a parcel of bricks’…

    The New Rome (1853) – pg 155-156

    ‘We are on the eve of aerial navigation…’

    The first four acts already past,
    A fifth shall close the drama with the day;
    Time’s noblest offspring is the last.

    ‘The sea is less confined than the river, the ocean more ubiquitous than the sea, but the air alone is fitted for a universal civilization. Its shores are every where; it can penetrate the poles ; it will settle the wilds of Tartary and the valleys of Central Africa. It will know no harbors and no ports, no depots and no entrepots. It will make all parts of the earth alike passable and alike accessible. It will give us the victory over Russian continentalism. Freedom is now limited to the oceanic world, to England and America; Russia, with its continental dependencies, is despotic ; it has no ships, and therefore no freedom; no freedom, and therefore no navy; having no navy, it can never do great injury to the seafaring world. But its despotism gives it an army, and its army will protect its despotism. The seafaring nations, on the other hand, have their navy to protect their freedom, but they will never have a large standing army to extend their system. To suppose this, would be to deny every leading characteristic of Americanism. This would keep the two halves of the world in a state of perpetual isolation, did not the navigation of the air restore them to a common element. American air-privateers will be down upon the Russian garrisons — to use our own expressive slang — ” like a parcel of bricks ;” and the Russian serfs will fasten to their skirts, and be elevated to a share in their liberties.’

    Compare the above excerpt from pg 155-156 of the 1853 book with something written about the modern Russian Alexander Dugin below taken from a now defunct website. A person might begin to think that these things were possibly being manipulated in some way between the US and Russia.

    ‘Dugin’s theories foresee an eternal world conflict between land and sea, and hence, Dugin believes, the U.S. and Russia…’

    ‘Dugin’s theories foresee an eternal world conflict between land and sea, and hence, Dugin believes, the U.S. and Russia. He says, “In principle, Eurasia and our space, the heartland Russia, remain the staging area of a new anti-bourgeois, anti-American revolution.” According to his 1997 book, The Basics of Geopolitics, “The new Eurasian empire will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal [anarchic] values to dominate us. This common civilizational impulse will be the basis of a political and strategic union.”

    https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/the_new_rome_or_the_united_states_of_the_world_1853

    https://archive.org/details/newrome00poes

    https://archive.org/details/politicalprophec00goeb

  448. I agree with your analysis on hard power (economics, military and science), but I think you overestimated China’s soft power (culture, the ability to use military power).

    There are fundamental problems in Chinese culture which made China missed industrial revolution, these same problems will make China not be able to have cultural influence compatible with her economic and military power in foreseeable future.

    Chinese in China know that we are lagging behind the West in economics, science and other aspects of hard power, but few people understand the importance of cultural influences or have realized that we are lacking soft power too.

    Hundred years ago, Chinese intellectuals knew that our culture was the problem, so they abandoned Confucianism and had a New Culture movement, which mainly influenced culture elites. Mao knew that traditional Chinese culture was bad for China, so he relentlessly tried to destroy old culture and to establish new one in ordinary Chinese people. In pass 40 year, China opened door to the West, so the capitalism and western culture influenced China, but only on superficial level. I don’t believe China will gain much culture power until our elite can start to carefully examine our culture, and I don’t see this will happen in near future.

    Most westerners’ fear of China is based on the assumption that Chinese people are the same as they are, fear China will pursue world domination and be a big bully. But Chinese people are not that kind of people and Chinese culture is not that kind of culture. The history of China and Chinese people in the West prove this. One belt and one road strategy of current Chinese leadership also proves what kind of Chinese superpower will be. It’s the “nice guy” strategy, naive or even stupid, lack of understanding the world and cultures, only to give the carrot without knowing to use the stick. Basically, we are not aggressive people like the Westerners. The conflict between China and the US may teach Chinese that they need aggressive to survive, but this really against Chinese nature, it’s a long way to go.

  449. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    doubling his efforts to conform to what Evolutionary Theory says should make him happy….imprisoned by a scientific theory that was false to my deepest experiences.

    You know, it would be nice if at least adoption of the theory had some kind of visible payoff. Evolution & HBD assumes survival of the fittest to be the sine qua non of human history and yet all the populations that gravitate towards these ideas tend to voluntarily go into a population nosedive. It’s the most bizarre thing; the more you are hooked into evolution as your primary paradigm, the less likely you are to actually survive.

    The only (semi-Western) country I have read about that has gotten its population close to stable is Georgia who did it with massive help and campaigns by the Orthodox Church.

    being a minority without having a larger spiritual perspective that helps give you perspective and detachment.

    You either get bitter or you follow the prophetic example an go all in to do what you think is best for your people.

    One note though, bro; I am kind of disappointed you are planning on leaving the US and not help stem the tide of the poz. There is a lot of benefit and spiritual development that is derived from fighting the good fight.

    Peace.

  450. @AaronB

    I don’t think that’s true. I’m sure there are variations, but a Stoic while aware of the material things of the word, is most traditionally associated with virtue. But how to find what is virtue? What if, for example, it is “virtuous” somewhere to lie? Therefore one would determine by reason and reason could involve measurements of what is gained or lost.

    At least, this is the Aurelian position, from what I can tell.

    As such, it can be very “rationalistic” and thus the attraction.

    “Supernaturalism” is actually a very modern concept. The ancients had no serious consideration of the “supernatural” world as opposed to the modern world, certainly not in such terms. When I gave offerings to the Muses, it was a fairly anthropomorphic consideration of them as actual spirits in our world, ones that can appreciate roses and poems. Sympathetic magic, such as to bless a wedding ring by placing it in a nest of turtledoves, is the notion that it is part and parcel of day to day life and the virtue of fidelity of doves would come upon the rings, which would be a fetish unto the bearers. Alchemists who sought to transmute the gross/base into the divine, but that was to a material reflection: lead into gold.

    To actually ignore the physical world, to disconnect it totally, or to abase it is gnosticism. That is a dangerous heresy to tread.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  451. All the Sinophiles here, answer this question:

    Which country in history achieved superpower status with aging population and dwindling birth rate? It simply doesn’t happen, because aging population = less dynamism. If demographics are destiny, then what is China’s destiny?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/china-s-next-debt-bomb-is-an-aging-population

    The population is graying quickly. The State Council said last year that about a quarter of China’s population will be 60 or older by 2030, up from 13.3 percent in the 2010 census. Meanwhile, scrapping the one-child policy hasn’t raised birth rates as high living costs deter larger families. Births fell to 17.2 million last year from 18.5 million in 2016.

  452. S says:
    @Biff

    They weren’t describing airplanes but rather what in time would be called zeppelins.

  453. @China Exposed

    Besides pension issues, which are real, it still means that a gigantic young population. Aging may mean quite something different in the future as technology advances:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3494068/

    I believe that AK has written about life/quality extensions before, if not, its worthwhile to note on the increasing remedies for combating aging. This is especially true due to the market for such.

    Though upon review of your comments, you’re pretty much a classic one-note idiot so have a nice life.

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  454. Yee says:

    Daniel Chieh,

    “I understand that we thought that he had Nationalist sympathies”

    Plenty of KMT switched side. You should follow your very, very, very distant relative and ditch the KMT too. They’re a bunch of losers, anyway.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  455. @Daniel Chieh

    As opposed to one-note Sinophile idiots here? Hey, I’m just trying to bringing some nuance to this website, where for some reason 90% of the people seem to have boners for China. There is nothing ‘alternative’ about sucking China’s ass, mind you. Mainstream media does that 24/7.

    Anyways, refute my facts if you can. I’m actually pretty well-versed in this subject, and nobody has yet to challenge my refutation to this article.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  456. @Ali Choudhury

    Maryland has a Kashmir community and they have not run amok. Granted, they are Hindus.

    ALL white Americans grandparents arrived penniless from the poorest most rural places in Europe like Ireland and Italy and Poland.

    The Pakistanis have now been in the UK for 50 years since the 1960′s. Two generations.

    Sikhs arrived from rural Punjab dirt poor at the same time and now they are the highest-earning group in UK…yet they have been a headache and nightmare in Canada who would give the Crips a run for their money in East Vancouver gang violence.

    So this is a good question. Why do immigrants assimilate in some environments better than others?

    • Replies: @Ali Choudhury
    , @notanon
  457. @China Exposed

    China will be the last man standing. You don’t have to be faster than the bear, you just need to be faster than the man next to you.

    China will be old. The West will be older still, and America at least buoyed by a massive youth bulge of various blacks, browns, and mystery meat that disguises this simple fact.

    Some people are fond of creating strawmen of Chinese power. If by superpower you mean an America which had 50% of world economic capacity and vassalized all other powers barring the Soviets in the aftermath of Ww2 then no China will never be that strong. America of 2018 isn’t that strong. What is going to happen though is a Chinese economy probably 50% larger than the US within the next 3 decades. What the Communists seek to do with it, trying to take America’s place in the crumbling order it built or kicking the rotting embers out from underneath and turning its back on the rest of the world is the only question.

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  458. @Yee

    No, but does it even really matter to anyone these days?

    Anyway, I don’t think he “ditched” the KMT. He got deported to Mao, what else was he supposed to do? Cut his throat for Lord Chiang? All he ever wanted to do in his life was science. All of the politics was really stupid.

    I really wish that more Chinese were like him.

  459. China will be old. The West will be older still, and America at least buoyed by a massive youth bulge of various blacks, browns, and mystery meat that disguises this simple fact.

    Having younger, more dynamic population is always way better than having old, decrepit ones, no matter what the ethnic make-up. Besides, the fastest growing population in the U.S. is actually Asians, not Blacks or Hispanics.

    You can deny the pattern all you want, but there is no precedence in history where an aging nation achieved superpower status. Look at the peak Roman Empire, Mongol Empire, British Empire, the United States, etc. They all had extremely young average age when they gained the super power title, and declined as their demographics grew older, without an exception.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  460. myself says:
    @anon

    War may be imminent and if there is a war, it will be started by the US.

    I may be in the minority (in fact I’m sure of it), but I’ve thought it through and I actually agree with this.

    We are more likely to launch a ‘preemptive war” against China, than the other way around. Sort of like Pearl Harbor, in reverse.

    If it turns out that their society is much more resilient and sustainable than some give them credit for, then our current trade (or as it seems to me, economic) war will inevitably fail to significantly slow them down.

    Sure, it’ll have some effect, but not enough to change the long-term civilizational dynamics of either China or America (or indeed, the West). Americans, you KNOW what I’m talking about.

    At that point, we either wisely think very-long term and choose co-existence with China, OR we turn to our only remaining (if likely unsustainable) advantage – starting and initially winning wars.

    Given the Deep State’s record so far, there is a non-zero chance of aggressive war, instigated not by China, but by, and I hate to think it, America!

    For all the usual reasons – islands in the South China Sea, human rights, Tibet, Xinjiang, democracy (at gunpoint), “freedom”, trade imbalance, intellectual piracy, etc, etc. There are always “reasons”, whatever self-serving justification can be manufactured by the elites and their controlled MSM.

    IMHO, the Deep State’s thinking is as follows: It’s okay to be the clear instigator and therefore the aggressor, as long as you “WIN” – as long as you get your way.

    About the only needed war in the last 20 years was the toppling of the Taliban and the hunting down of Al Qaeda/Bin Laden. All else was needless – Iraq 2003, Libya 2011, Syria 2011 to present (but soon to conclude), Ukraine Orange “Revolution” 2014 (or coup d’etat).

    In hindsight, these actions seem much less those of a confident hegemonic superpower than that of a nation sensing that its unipolar moment was fading, and that certain conquests had to be secured before history inevitably outran it, before time ran out.

    IMHO, history is starting to outrun us, and time is, imperceptibly to most, beginning to run out.

    • Replies: @bucky
  461. @Anatoly Karlin

    Yes, Mr. Karlin, Okechukwu has a making stuff up problem, but this time he is acting reasonable, and you are not.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  462. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    You’re absolutely right that the hard and fast distinction between matter and spirit is a modern conception, probably initiated by Descartes. Sharp absolutely clear distinctions are a specialty of the modern West, and are not found in reality or more nuanced ancient cultures.

    The Buddhist scriptures in particular are at pains to emphasize this point again and again and never tire of telling us Samsara is Nirvana.

    The point isn’t that matter has no value – obviously it does, I eat and drink, I take care of my body, beauty is expressed through matter – I ecstatically enjoy nature, which has matter as a substrate. Buddha himself rejected extreme asceticism – he rejected the extreme anti matter position.

    Moreover, matter itself seems to be really “energy” and to not exist :)

    But matter is just one level of reality, and has only relative importance – this perspective situates the world of matter in a far larger reality, thus reducing our preoccupation with it and making it relatively less important. It is a question of ranking.

    For instance, I can look at a forest and see it as just matter – so much dead wood to be used for energy, so much rocks and dirt to be used for building, etc. And many moderns indeed look at it that way. Or I can see it shimmering with an insubstantial beauty and wonder that I can barely define but makes me forget about all the petty cares and anxieties of ordinary life. Another dimension breaks through into mere matter. Of course, wood is also good for burning in a cold winter night.

    The loss of this perspective leads to madness, anger, and anxiety – seeing only matteras important, we are ridiculously frail creatures in a ceaseless war against the world that we are bound to lose in the end, beset on every side, with few pleasures easily snatched from us and threatened with destruction at every turn. And even these physical pleasures not very deep and satisfying in the end, and soon palling.

    Who wouldn’t be full of anxiety and anger, who wouldn’t strive for wealth and dominance, who wouldn’t be miserable and gloomy like gmachine and the entirety of the modern world?

    As for stoicism, yes, it is richer and more complex than my my brief hastily drawn sketch and contains many good things – which were absorbed into Christianity.

    But ultimately it lacks the ability to liberate and emotionally and spiritually sustain one on a deep level, it is too joyless and grim (duty rather than spontaneous joy and love, etc), and that’s why it hasn’t survived or become the basis of a popular world movement.

  463. @AaronB

    WHITE EXPAT HERE

    We call indirectness “saving face” which is why things don’t end up in violence as often as the West where interactions are more confrontational.

    I don’t think whites have any particular “privileges” unless they are inordinately rich in Asia. Certainly not East Asia. Try cutting in line at a bar in Seoul or Bangkok and see how fast you get in a fight.

    “Change it”

    There is not one white man in Asia who would like to change his Chinese or Thai wife into a frigid bitchy white fema. The two or three Westerners married to Arab women were not in a hurry to leave them for white women.

    “Not being accepted”

    Asians are less likely to express this by killing a white as often as Mestizos or Blacks do. Would you want to walk through Tokyo or the LA barrio/ghetto at night.

    Blacks and Mestizos are held in check by an increasingly militarized police state but would privately wipe whites off the map. Asians don’t care unless you frequent low bars or bad areas.

    “Change it to a Western country”

    That would seem unlikely that whites would want to be divorce raped, turn prostitution into a felony crime like the US etc.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @EmilKarpk
  464. @Duke of Qin

    What is going to happen though is a Chinese economy probably 50% larger than the US within the next 3 decades.

    I already addressed this issue above. Gauging the economic power of a nation using GDP is outdated thinking. GDP is like annual income, and doesn’t tell you how much asset a country has accumulated over the years. In other words, the total net wealth is just as important, if not more, in analyzing economic power.

    Just so you know, the U.S. has 300% more total wealth than China as of 2017.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

    The World Bank also agrees with this opinion (Wealth > GDP)

    https://qz.com/1194051/a-new-world-bank-project-shows-that-wealth-not-gdp-is-the-best-gauge-of-a-countrys-progress/

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  465. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    I think HBD and Evolution etc offer the promise of power – it offers you the promise of being able to control people if you understand the theory, and in a large scale, control the direction of entire societies if you understand the principles involved.

    Now, some power is good and necessary, but what kind of person is so obsessed with power? Someone who is terrified and afraid. Someone who is defined by fear, for whom fear is at the center of his being.

    When I used to go to bars and pick up women, I revelled in the spontaneous unstructured nature of the process, of naturally finding uncoerced and unmanipulated affection from someone whose nature was similar to my own. The process was joyous and spontaneous.

    To many men this us a terrifying prospect I have now learned. What they want is control – with all the anxiety and care, anger and self-obsession that brings – but also with all the security and false certainty it brings.

    Most people will exchange joy for security. At least on the modern world.

    Hence Game.

    As for me leaving, well, at a certain point it makes sense to retreat from a dying corpse that cannot be resuscitated and that can only infect you and kill you – of course, the battle can be fought from afar, perhaps better, in relative tranquility.

    And on a mystical level, it’s all connected – merely living out correct values sends reverberations throughout the world and has tremendous effect. That’s why monks and hermits were considered beneficial.

    But thanks for your concern!

    • Replies: @Talha
  466. @Talha

    “I doubt these whites know their own backgrounds”

    That’s the ignorance of a Desi who would think that a white with a surname like Thorvaldsson from Bakersfield was an “English Gora”.

    Any white knows what their last name is and their religion…Swedes will be Lutheran, Irish will be Catholic as will Italians….

    “Some Native Blood”

    They were having you on for a laugh. Whites in California are relatively recent transplants from Europe or the East Coast.

    Mexicans are white people with Native American blood.

    “Latinos converting”

    In prison, probably. I noticed that in India the criminal types tended to be Hindus (Low caste) who converted.

    “Mistaken for Persian”

    Utter Pradesh is Kashmir isn’t it? Yes, I suppose that is possible that you might be mistaken for an Iranian.

    After all, Brahmin in North India and especially Utter Pradesh originated in Northern Persia at some point.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @RadicalCenter
  467. Michael7 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    @Mr. Hack

    I would also add Kitraro and Sadao Watanabe to your list of excellent Japanese musicians!

    Nice! To that I’ll add Casiopea, Kazumi Watanabe, Chu Kosaka, and Yasuhiro Abe. So many great Japanese musicians.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  468. AP says:
    @Anonymous

    Weren’t cowboys heavily influenced by Mexican culture? And what is more American than a cowboy?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  469. Jason Liu says:
    @China Exposed

    Needham is still in good standing among sinologists, despite his politics. His work has largely stood the test of time, and invoking his “communist” background actually betrays a bias in which retards, such as yourself, have a hard time believing in Chinese achievement. Are we supposed to believe you hold a sincere, thought-out view of history when you quote Lucas Nickel’s singular opinion as fact, or fringe theories about the Egyptian origins of Chinese civilization?

    Unlike your speculative bullshit, it is widely accepted that Greek civilization owes its origins to Egypt and the Middle East. Pre-modern Europe was the same or less than China when it comes to science, innovation, or any other form of thinking. Unless you believe drastic evolution occurred within the last 500 years, you’re going to have to come up with something better than “Asians aren’t creative!” and pasting Matteo Ricci’s diary.

    Most Unz readers are not blind cheerleaders for China, be they Chinese or otherwise. You, on the other hand, have sperged out and spammed threads with lengthy copied diatribes over the last few days. Triggered much?

    The vast majority of people who downplay western history in favor of other histories are white, far left academics. There are virtually no Chinese in those positions of power. You would know all this if you pulled your head out of your ass, stopped acting like an expat with hurt feelings, and read a book sometime.

  470. @China Exposed

    Power, hazy concept, even more economic power.
    Germany has a high GDP er head, yet it is very vulnerable.
    German exports as % of GDP are huge.
    Who fears for a hard Brexit, it will never happen.
    England is a major export country for Germany, even for France.
    As a British negotiator said, already years ago ‘they (the EU without England) need us more than we need them’.
    British exports to the EU are far below British imports from the EU.
    The USA, in my opinion, has economic power, it is nearly autarcic, or can be autarcic.

  471. George says:

    I thought soft power was entertainment, music, sports. Beijing is currently in the process of destroying the Hong Kong entertainment industry that produced Bruce Lee and Jackie Chan.

    I am not buying the reported Chinese IQ either.

    Could it be that the reason for Chinese success is the Chinese government avoids foreign entanglements?

    Chinese have know how the US lost probably during the Reagan administration.

    CHINESE DEAL TO TAKE OVER KEY ISRAELI PORT MAY THREATEN U.S. NAVAL OPERATIONS, CRITICS SAY

    https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-deal-take-over-key-israeli-port-may-threaten-us-naval-operations-1121780

    I think the only competition the Chinese have in ports management is the United Arab Emirates. Bwahhhh.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  472. Jason Liu says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    No, China’s probably always been a low trust culture. The whole selfish materialistic asshole thing predates Mao, and is a consequence of China’s large and dense population. How we solve this without becoming too “soft” like the west is the question of our age.

  473. @Jason Liu

    ” Unlike your speculative bullshit, it is widely accepted that Greek civilization owes its origins to Egypt and the Middle East. ”

    There was far more interaction than commonly thought:
    Lynn White Jr., ‘Medieval Technology and Social Change’, Oxford 1962
    Nowhere ever one way traffic of ideas and inventions.

    There was far more travel than commonly thought, as an example:
    Ibn Battúta, ‘Travels in Asia and Africa 1325 – 1354′, 1929, 1983, London
    This Islamic scholar travelled from present Tanger, Morocco, to China, into what now is S Russia, and in Africa until the equator.

  474. @George

    ” I am not buying the reported Chinese IQ either. ”
    If it is true I do not know, but it is asserted that China already has a functioning computer, even in a satellite, based on entanglement.
    PISA investigations show that the best education now is in SE Asia.
    Christopher Lasch, ‘The Culture of Narcissism, American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations’, 1979, 1980, London, damning book about USA education.
    William H. Whyte, ‘The organisation man’, New York 1956, Penguin 1961, about stupid USA college graduates.
    Hungary now abolishes gender studies, my hope on white culture not being destroyed anywhere is with the E European countries.
    Soros has other ideas.

    • Replies: @myself
  475. @Jason Liu

    I’m not sure if you read Needham’s personal journals, but it reveals a quite different world pre-Mao. Not perfect, but far from the sheer materialistic cargo culting of modern-day China. He had plenty of frustrations in China, but he noted the patience and devotion of the last of the old plant-grafters, artisans and scholars and it definitely feels like a different world. Modernity hit China hard.

  476. @Jeff Stryker

    The grandparents of white Americans likely had minimal instances of cousin marriage.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  477. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    I think HBD and Evolution etc offer the promise of power…Someone who is terrified and afraid

    I think this is key, it’s a scary world out there – how do you make sense of it? How can you have a semblance that everything will be OK. There is a prayer (not even so much of a prayer as just an affirmation) that is very familiar to practicing Muslims but is an anathema to post-modern man:
    “Say, ‘O Allah! Master of all dominion. You give sovereignty to whoever You will and You take sovereignty from whoever You will. You exalt whoever You will and You abase whoever You will. All good is in Your hands. Indeed, You have power over all things. You merge the night into the day and You merge the day into the night. You bring out the living from the dead and You bring out the dead from the living. You provide for whoever You please without any reckoning.’” (3:26-27)

    of course, the battle can be fought from afar, perhaps better, in relative tranquility.

    I can respect that – making hijrah is a valid move. If my spiritual teachers give the word to fold up shop and migrate because it is too detrimental to one’s faith, I’ll end up doing the same. There is a hadith reported in Bukhari that my teachers have mentioned before:
    “Soon the best wealth of a Muslim will be a flock of sheep he takes to the top of a mountain or in valleys of rainfall, fleeing with his religion from tribulations.”

    But thanks for your concern!

    As always, you’re part of my people.

    Peace.

  478. AaronB says:
    @Jason Liu

    This simply isn’t true. Read up on old accounts, including Rici.

    You’re grasping after materialistic explanations.

  479. @China Exposed

    Your comments have long been refuted, but for long experience, I’ve learned to talking to Indians is always a mistake.

    You should really focus on make your own country less of a shithole.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  480. @Jason Liu

    Selfish materialistic.
    Indeed, Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, export a lot to China.
    The Chinese government is said to be composed of engineers, not the usual chattering politicians.
    In Khzakstan a huge land port has been built, where containers are transferred from the Chinese railway to the Russian, different widths.
    A container from China to St Petersburgh, three to four days.

  481. Mr. Hack says:
    @Michael7

    Indeed. As a kid, I really liked the musical antics of the Yellow Magic Orchestra (YMO). Still looking for a reissued box set of their stuff, that is often being done today at very reasonable prices.

    I am also, however, interested in Chinese music too. On several occasions, listening to the radio, I’ve encountered very large sounding, lush Chinese classical music that goes beyond the more traditional, sparser sounding classical Chinese music. Perhaps you know of what I speak and could help me out here? Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to capture the names of the artists and records that I was listening to.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Michael7
  482. @Talha

    “Swearing at porn”

    Watching porn seems to rewire women’s brains and make them more promiscuous. Men watch porn and don’t want to be porn stars. But women watch porn and their values take a dive and their behavior changes.

    • Replies: @Talha
  483. @Anatoly Karlin

    And I don’t think it has influenced Europe (or Britain, at any rate) much at all.

    On anime and manga in France: anime got big there in the 1970s, when Space Pirate Captain Harlock and Candy Candy were dubbed for French TV. Pretty much all the kids watched them; an episode of Candy Candy where the heroine’s love interest died caused such shock and outcry around the country that they had to change the dub urgently and retcon him as alive. Lots of manga books have been officially translated to French (not fan translated like manga usually was in America) and are sold together with their own very popular BD comics. Combined sales of BD, manga and other comics in 2015 were 39 million copies, for a population of 66.9 million people. You can see BD stores, with manga sections, surviving in the very heart of Paris despite enormous rent. Also, recent cartoon series Miraculous was conceived as “French anime”, got an anime-style trailer, was eventually made in 3D because it’s what modern kids watch, but retained a lot of Japanese cliches and style.

  484. @Daniel Chieh

    DANIEL

    Indians like living in shit. They revel in it. They are trapped in the anal stage of psychological development.

    We have not broken down the human genome to the extent that we fully understand why some races are both intelligent and unable to control their impulsiveness.

    Indians seem to be pure Id like Africans but have an IQ that is about the same as whites overall.

  485. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Any white knows what their last name is and their religion

    If you say so – other than the Mormons, the Whites I was around were fairly ignorant of these details.

    They were having you on for a laugh.

    So you mean my boss of 13 years – the White guy with green eyes – who says he is part Cherokee, is lying to me? Why should I believe you over him?

    In prison, probably.

    Those too…here, educate yourself:
    “Latinos becoming Islam’s fastest growing ethnic group”

    https://america.cgtn.com/2017/04/26/latinos-becoming-islams-fastest-growing-ethnic-group

    “In Chicago and elsewhere, Latinos converting to Islam”

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/latinos-converting-to-islam-chicago-elsewhere-spanish-religion/

    You may not like it, but your opinion from East Asia is pretty irrelevant, because it’s happening.

    Yes, I suppose that is possible that you might be mistaken for an Iranian.

    Well, since I trace my line all the way through Ahl al-Bayt (https://www.britannica.com/topic/Ahl-al-Bayt) which is traced through the male line, it is quite possible my ancestors were part of the original conquering forces – most of whom were Persian or Turko-Persian.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  486. @China Exposed

    China has an extreme levels of income inequality and development disparity between the coastal cities and the interior.

    This means that it will have a smallish (maybe 300 million) Western level developed area and a very large (over a billion) lower middle income or poor area (which adds very little to its strength). Now 300 million Western level will still mean roughly the size of the US.

    We already know how this story ends (see Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, etc.)

    These countries are very much smaller than China, so it’s a dumb argument.

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  487. @Jason Liu

    Joseph Needham is one of the biggest frauds, ever. The guy was blacklisted by the U.S. state department for committing the treasonous act of helping out the communists (which he himself was one of.) Also, Needham was a famous Sinophile when he was attending Cambridge as a student, and loved everything about China to the point where he actually married a Chinese woman, which wasn’t that common at the time. Need I say much?

    Even Simon Winchester, who wrote biographies on Needham, called him a “victim of a very clever and adroitly organized campaign of disinformation” and “much more of a fool than a knave.”

    Yup, straight-up called him a fool.

    Also, according to one of you geochemists, Chinese civilization owes its origins to Egypt. Not only that, there are multiple archaeological artifacts that prove ancient China was influenced by the Greek culture. Pre-modern science? There was no such thing as science in China before the 20th century, according to Feng Youlan.

    Your so-called ‘advanced’ Chinese civilization didn’t even know about the shape of the earth prior to encountering European Jesuits and learning advanced science and mathematics from them.

    Compare this to the ancient Greeks, who not only knew that earth was round, but also calculated the circumference of the earth over 2,000 years ago.

    How the ancient Greeks proved Earth was round over 2,000 years ago

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/how-greek-eratosthenes-calculated-earth-circumference-2016-6

    The vast majority of people who downplay western history in favor of other histories are white, far left academics.

    You just described Joseph Needham, lol.

    There are virtually no Chinese in those positions of power.

    Look again. There are millions on the internet, hired by PRoC.

  488. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    And thus it goes…
    “Verily, among the words people obtained from (all) the prophets are this: If you feel no shame, then do as you wish.” – reported in Bukhari

    Peace.

  489. @Mr. Hack

    There’s this, which I quite like:

  490. AaronB says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Saving face is just politeness and concern for others – no need to invent a special term for it. Its indicative that the West had to invent a special, mildly pejorative term for high levels of basic human politeness.

    There is a certain kind of privilege that comes from being an outsider in Asia not subject to often onerous social restrictions and expected to fit into certain roles. You get a pass where locals wouldn’t. Its normal, we are more lenient to Asian immigrants in America.

    Lots of ex-pats complain about Asian girls – too focused on family, money plays too big a role, different values, etc. Whatever. Not so interested in the whole Asian girl thing, which is ridiculous on so many levels.

    I have no problem with Asian exclusionism – its historically normal and relatively mild and benign. Its just ridiculous that so many whites moan about it. Its also entirely natural that they do. Gmachine is essentially moaning that while given a comfortable and safe life in America he is denied the very highest levels of status. It’s ridiculous, but also entirely natural.

  491. @China Exposed

    Having younger, more dynamic population is always way better than having old, decrepit ones, no matter what the ethnic make-up. Besides, the fastest growing population in the U.S. is actually Asians, not Blacks or Hispanics.

    Haha No. Nigeria Superpower 2030!

    The Roman Empire was done in when the slave economy and regional rent extraction to the Italian peninsula wrecked the social vitality of it’s Latin core, combined with a little ice age that sent the Barbarians across the borders everywhere in the world.

    The Mongol Empire was done in by the nature of steppe polities and it’s recurrent fratricidal infighting due to the instability of power preservation. Steppe power is able to rapidly coagulate and make shockingly rapid advances compared to settled power, but it disintegrates just as fast.

    The British empire died when it’s original profitable colonial ventures became less profitable and net liabilities and two massive wars with Germany bankrupted it to the extent that it could no longer afford to pay for it’s upkeep.

    The US empire will die due to its elites, beholden to a foolish liberal mythos about the fungibility of man, tips the demographic balance of it’s heartlands from old stock to 85 IQ morlocks (Most Asians are dumb shits too, Northeast Asians being the exception) in an ever more self destructive quest to prop up its wealth transfer systems and capitalist oligarchy depended on ever expanding consumption.

  492. @Ali Choudhury

    Parsee are not unintelligent by and large and they are so inbred after wandering into India 1000 years ago that they are Hemophiliacs…yet they show know pathology of inbreeding.

    Brahmin are inbred to an extent (Though less so now that arranged marriage is a thing of the past) and they do not seem unintelligent either.

    Considering HOW LONG AGO the founding populations of North India arrived-Georgians into Gujarat; Scythians who became Jatts; Middle Eastern Jews who became the St. Thomas Christians-you’d think that these groups would all be low-grade cretins. But they aren’t.

    Sinhalese who settled Sri Lanka 2000 years ago are descended from a few dozen ancient Bengali boatloads from Orissa.

    You’d think India would be like WRONG TURN. Yet they are not.

  493. @reiner Tor

    This means that it will have a smallish (maybe 300 million) Western level developed area and a very large (over a billion) lower middle income or poor area (which adds very little to its strength). Now 300 million Western level will still mean roughly the size of the US.

    Having 300 million Western level people while also having to support 1 billion sub-Western level population is a different story. You can't just separate out the rich from the poor like that, because the number of poor people have direct impact on the fate of the nation. Add to that aging demographic and dwindling birth rate. Dumb argument.

    These countries are very much smaller than China,

    I wan’t talking about size. My point was those countries didn’t surpass the United States in tech and innovation, even though they are very good at adopting new Western technologies and perfecting it. It’s a typical Asian trait, and we know how this story goes.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @reiner Tor
  494. @AaronB

    Indicative that Westerners invented the word…they didn’t, its a translation from the Asian term.

    “Onerous social restrictions”

    Like what? I find Asia freer than the West. If I want to use a prostitute I can. I can wander down the street drinking and nobody cares. I can hold any opinion I want.

    “Lots of expats complain about local girls too focused on family, money to important, different values”

    …Asian women are less likely to have affairs out of sheer sexual lust for a Chad than the average white woman and end up being some Cougar living off the support of an ex-husband whose house they kept after breaking up the marriage with infidelities.

    Oh, I’ve heard some horror stories about bar girls but who would marry a crack whore they saw at truck stop in their own country?

    “Not so interested in the Asian girl thing which is ridiculous”

    Moreso than marrying a white girl who becomes a cold bitchy WASP or a JAP who becomes a shrieking Yenta?

    If your marriage breaks up in Asia, you can simply walk off.

    “Denied the highest levels of status”

    The US reserves that for its court jesters and porno stars and freaks of society.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  495. @Duke of Qin

    Your response is completely unrelated to my argument. There could be multiple reasons as to why nations fall apart, but throughout history declining birth rate/aging population has always coincided with the country’s downward trajectory, not up. No exception.

    China is facing both problems at once, which is unprecedented for a wanna-be superpower. Actually, in terms of demographics, India’s future is much brighter than aging China’s. India is young and vibrant; China is old and has declining growth rate.

    • Replies: @Lin
    , @Anonymous
  496. Talha says:
    @China Exposed

    You can’t just separate out the rich from the poor like that, because the number of poor people have direct impact on the fate of the nation.

    It kind of depends; mass culling of populations in war or as recent as Mao’s Great Leap Forward has a lot of historical precedence for China. I really would not eliminate any potential policy if hyper-HBD realism takes hold in the upper echelons of Chinese leadership – not even solyent green processing of anyone with an IQ below 90…I’m sure they’ll figure out a “practical” way to resolve the problem like they are doing with Uyghurs.

    Peace.

  497. AaronB says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    You’re arguing with the wrong guy – I agree Asia is much better to live in than America. Somehow you got it into your head I’m anti Asian expat.

    I think it’s great.

  498. @China Exposed

    This is a three-year-old article claiming that the Type 95 submarine is noisy. The only issue is that at the time nothing was known about the Type 95 submarine, which first entered service in 2017.

    It might actually be not any noisier (or just slightly noisier) than comparable American submarines.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/does-china-have-nuclear-submarine-could-beat-the-us-navy-19421

    https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/07/china-all-electric-rim-driven-shaftless-ultraquiet-submarine-propulsion.html

    https://www.popsci.com/china-new-submarine-engine-revolutionize-underwater-warfare

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  499. @China Exposed

    also having to support 1 billion sub-Western level population

    They won’t have to support them, those will support themselves.

    • Replies: @China Exposed
  500. @reiner Tor

    Both type 93 and type 95 submarines are famous for being noisy. I don’t know whether they’ve made any improvements or not, but most recent articles still say they are noisy.

    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a15915045/are-chinas-nuclear-subs-too-noisy-for-their-own-good/

    The consensus is that the U.S. submarine technology is 20 years ahead.

  501. I’d rather a woman not reproduce if she is 16 or 20 and semi-raped by some cad who has no interest in providing for the child.

    The difference between middle-class whites and poorer ones is the age at which they gave birth. A single mother of 18 who has a child is going condemn the child to poverty and a harsh background. Two college graduates who are 30 don’t.

    • Replies: @Talha
  502. @Rye

    You must another yellow fevered incel, just be thankful chinese are not interested in attacking other countries if it were the world would tremble .

  503. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Just a question; do you have children or are you planning on having any?

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  504. @reiner Tor

    Not really, because a quarter of Chinese will be over the age of 60 by 2030, and more than third by 2050. Having a bunch of not-so-rich old people is bound to be a burden on the economy and the nation as a whole, however you slice it.

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/20/c_137338328.htm

    This is happening at the same time as the birth rate is declining, as well as the growth of the economy.

  505. Talha says:
    @gmachine1729

    When you’re extremely poor, your expectations are quite low.

    My family was middle class – my father taught at a local college in Karachi. We were able to afford a servant.

    I’m obviously not going to say the shit I say on here in most other social contexts.

    Another piece of advice – try not to be two-faced. I can’t think of anything that I post here that I couldn’t discuss with my friends or family (I even use some discussions on Unz forums as a catalyst to discuss topics with my teenage daughter). Speaking out of both sides of one’s mouth makes one realize they are living a disingenuous life.

    I value and have pride in my roots too, and I hope more Chinese can be like that too.

    As you and others should – the Chinese are a vital part of humanity and I’m sure they will continue to contribute to humanity as we move forward.

    I am merely able to resist the whole American brainwashing experience.

    I’m not brainwashed an I still feel an affinity to the society that I live in. A lot of it is in attitude and perspective; look at the positives, be patient with or overlook the negatives.

    our people, American identity is pretty incoherent as far as I can tell

    That’s part of the charm of our people – it’s a pretty bold experiment. Again, I’m having a difficult time wondering why you are sticking around, but I guess your goal is to provide an alternative way of thinking to safeguard and preserve people like yourself from the Chinese diaspora, correct? Do you plan to marry a Chinese woman and settle down then, I presume…?

    Peace.

  506. @Talha

    “Ignorant of their (religious) details”

    The Italian-Americans you met were UNAWARE of being Roman Catholic? Or the whites you met who were Jewish did not know they were Jewish?

    “Part Cherokee”

    I bet he was a redneck too, because poor white rednecks will always claim to be part Native American.

    …You must have grown up in a poor white area.

    “Latinos converting to Islam”

    I noticed the criminal types in India converted to Islam. Nothing against Muslims but converts are often criminal types. Not always but Islam has always appealed to the poor.

    “Turko-Persians”

    Did they get all the way across Kashmir into Uttar Pradesh? That is sort of like claiming that Punjabi are Greek. Its improbable, not implausible.

    • Replies: @Talha
  507. Mitleser says:
    @Okechukwu

    “minor”

    It would be quite expensive.

    Modifying the Izumo to make it a true aircraft carrier is a decision that won’t be taken lightly. It will be expensive: In addition to the cost of procuring up to a dozen fighters (the per-unit price of an F-35B is currently a whopping $116 million), her flight deck will need to be strengthened to cope with the massive amounts of heat the F-35B generates during takeoffs and landings. The cost could end up being near two billion dollars — as much as the ship itself.

    Despite being the third largest economy, Japan doesn’t have a lot of money to spend on defense. She is also deeply in debt, with a public debt approaching 230 percent of GDP. Any steps to match China’s growing military power must be carefully considered.

    http://theweek.com/articles/548082/china-right-alarmed-by-japans-new-helicopter-destroyer

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  508. Okechukwu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Okechukwu is a troll who makes up implausible stories to buttress his Joy Reid affirmative action Kremlinologist-level takes on Russia, while making stupendously stupid claims about my own personal life and opinions.

    Not very smart, Karlin, to link to another thread where you tried to debate me and got clobbered. And like a typical white nationalist troll, on that thread too you engaged in racial epithets rather than engaging my arguments.

    I understand the psychology behind this phenomenon. After the extinction of Soviet communism, the losers among you Russians, who could not abide life absent a unifying totalitarian ideology, gravitated to white supremacism, another fascistic ideology. There you found a comforting surrogate home. As I said on the thread you linked to, you reflect the values that made those who care about me concerned for my safety in Moscow. That’s why I’ve had private security every time I’ve been there. I am not without resources. I can afford it.

    As far as I can tell, the things I said in that post that you find so fantastical are:

    1) I visited Moscow

    And

    2) I had a Russian girlfriend.

    Or do you also dispute that I like Russian literature and Soviet-era films?

    I ask the rational, thoughtful commentators here: Are any of these things so extraordinary, so unimaginable as to be out of the reach of the average person, much less someone like me?

  509. @ChineseMom

    The people of Tibet and East Turkestan (“Xinjiang”) and Mongolia would beg to differ.

    But I hope you’re right.

    • Replies: @DB Cooper
  510. @Mitleser

    a public debt approaching 230 percent of GDP

    Isn’t most of it owned by the Bank of Japan?

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  511. bucky says:
    @myself

    Yes, I definitely agree here. The issue is that without the federal government and its massive spending…what exactly is America? Without the stabilizing force that is federal spending, you would quickly get some sort of civil war going on here. Just look at BLM and the level of hatred expressed by blacks. And as is well documented here, the issues plaguing blacks are simply inherent to who they are and their own inherent propensities.

  512. @Duke of Qin

    Duke of Qin,

    I’m very curious how managed to develop such historical and political erudition along with such English fluency, assuming you did up through college in China. Also how did you develop your political views? Such as but not limited to

    - multicultural societies not able to remain intact for long
    - West committing suicide by allowing low IQ Muslim/black immigration
    - that Chinese should isolate more with a bigger gun instead of trying to fit into the American world order
    - that China should try to actively tear apart the existing liberal democratic world order
    - and similar

    你太厉害了,所以我还是觉得有点too good to be true。

  513. @gmachine1729

    - multicultural societies not able to remain intact for long
    - West committing suicide by allowing low IQ Muslim/black immigration

    I have read multiple stories of the most common Chinese google term after “Paris” is “too many black people” or something.

    - that Chinese should isolate more with a bigger gun instead of trying to fit into the American world order
    - that China should try to actively tear apart the existing liberal democratic world order

    That’s just nationalism. He doesn’t like China being a subordinate part of the international order, and the only two logical possibilities are destroying it and becoming the new hegemon or destroying it and isolating itself from the rest. I don’t think the latter is very realistic, but then again, I’m not Duke of Qin.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    , @bucky
  514. @gmachine1729

    China > S(t)inkapore > USA. I mentioned it in the audio clip I sent you. I didn’t attend college in the mainland.

    • Replies: @gmachine1729
  515. @Okechukwu

    As far as I can tell, the things I said in that post that you find so fantastical are:

    1) I visited Moscow

    And

    2) I had a Russian girlfriend.

    Or do you also dispute that I like Russian literature and Soviet-era films?

    I ask the rational, thoughtful commentators here: Are any of these things so extraordinary, so unimaginable as to be out of the reach of the average person, much less someone like me?

    To me, the difficult to believe details were

    #1 having needed a private security while in Moscow
    #2 having afforded private security

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  516. Okechukwu says:
    @Bombercommand

    Yes, Mr. Karlin, Okechukwu has a making stuff up problem

    You mean like traveling to Moscow?

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  517. Lin says:
    @China Exposed

    Sometimes,I can’t help but amused; here’s something quite vibrant about the young hindus; even their ‘PHD’s scramble for lackey jobs:
    93000 young hindus (including 3740 ‘PHD’s)applied for 62 lackey jobs in Uttar Pradesh(population>220mil).

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/3700-phd-holders-apply-for-messengers-job/articleshow/65601510.cms

    As with china’a aging population, I definitely prefer bulging at the top of the population pyramid over bulging at the bottom. Here’s how robotics/A.I. could apply to both scenarios:
    1)For bulging at the top, A.I. assisted health care system and nursing robots will take care of the aged. Besides, those in their 80s will cease to be demographic problem much sooner than those in their 20s.
    That explains why china is pouring money into A.I.
    2)For bulging at the bottom, the young, if luckily they’ve menial jobs, they can robotized by putting on C3PO suits to go to work.
    Overall, I’m confident that demographics will take on new meanings and will greatly stimulate A.I. research.

  518. @ChineseMom

    说的没错,早就在上面关注到您了,这儿竟然吸引这么多中国人。

    对,中国人太nice,Duke of Qin说的没错,要狠一些,中国人可以多看看中共的那些战争片,我觉得那些会对在美国长大的(我就是一个)中国男性的自信心和认同感有很大的帮助。

    今年八月一日我看了https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhtwVWBXA7A,中国人也有自己的一种aggressive,这是大多美国长大的中国孩子未知的。

    我个人比较烦中国人,尤其在美国,那种被动表现和行为,当然这是在美国,华人是无政治实力的minority,强求无可。

    欢迎私下联系,我的邮件是这儿的handle在foxmail.com。我还和一些同心的华人建立了小微信群,说不定也会欢迎中国母亲加入。

    • Replies: @spandrell
  519. bucky says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    I’ve been to Asia and I prefer America. Asian towns tend to be cramped and annoying, kind of run down because of the humidity. It definitely is more of a functional place, as similar urban areas in America are overrun by chaotic blacks and all that they bring.

    But overall, America is better, at least if you get the right place. You have a lot more space, a lot more consumer goods for cheap. Things might change in a few years, but for now it pays to be at the center of power and wealth and that is America.

  520. Okechukwu says:
    @reiner Tor

    To me, the difficult to believe details were

    #1 having needed a private security while in Moscow
    #2 having afforded private security

    Private security in hot spots is not unfamiliar to me. I’m not the one who insists. Other people do.

  521. @Duke of Qin

    那大学是在新加坡上的?高中呢?我知道新加坡人瞧不起大陆人,反共不反华blah blah blah。让我想起我都看到有中国人能进清北或至少浙大复旦,但都选择香港或新加坡大学,理由是与外界更联系。

    新加坡还有什么特别Stinkapore的地方啊,分享一下您亲自的感受。如何评价光耀同志?如何看待新加坡依然军事与台湾合作?

    记得孔庆东也骂过新加坡人,感觉你就有点孔庆东。我在和一些其他人进行email thread,里面有思维与我相同之,也有一些西化华裔狗崽子不断反驳我。在此,我有说

    Similarly, if a Chinese in America rejects Chinese culture outright, there’s nothing I can do other than influence by an epsilon (that means very little, for those here unfamiliar with the mathematical convention). I simply feel rather strongly that Chinese in America rejecting Chinese culture is a rather stupid move and that they could in the long term gain a lot more by allying with the Chinese Chinese. In case you haven’t noticed, Americanized Chinese are a very small, weak group. Do you really want to be part of that? Yes, there is much pressure and social conditioning in America for those who grow up here to act according to “white American” norms. People are always too worried about what others what the majority might think of them.

    China and Chinese are often negatively portrayed in the US media as sort of “seceding from the world.” It’s because the traditional culture is very different, and not only that, China was on the opposing side during the Cold War, fought a bloody war with America too. The thing is that China is big and powerful enough is she can sort of secede from the world. Nobody really wants to piss it off too much, as companies all want to tap its huge market. China has much leverage through this. Remember that the current international system is designed by America for America’s best interest. I think at heart, China is well aware that it has the potential to fully challenge this existing system. Some on Unz Review, especially Duke of Qin, hope that China can eventually tear it apart. At the very least, China will boycott aspects of this system not in its national interest when it can and by doing so, delegitimize it significantly. China knows its she cannot win playing by America’s rules and is going to gradually make its own rules on the international stage. I personally also think that in the long term I could do much better than just senior software engineer in America.

    Again, I wrote explicitly on my blog that even if you’re not culturally Chinese, your children if bred through the Chinese educational system will be fully accepted and if they’re extremely talented/capable, they’d have a much better chance of reaching the top there than they would in America. Also remember that in America, a Chinese at the top is not really truly at the top, you’re there as a minority, you have in reality much less power than a white person in an equivalent formal position.

    名字划掉 has pointed out something that I’ve been aware of all along, which is even when China was complete shit and seemingly hopeless (in the early 20th century), many people didn’t just give in; they fought back all they could and eventually won. So people like us have absolutely no excuse. This is indicative of the power of Chinese civilization!

  522. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor

    Yes, but that does not mean that Japan’s level of debt is a serious problem.

    The good news is that almost all of that debt is held domestically and the government holds a large amount of net foreign assets.

    Yet Japan is not immune from a fiscal crisis, and given Japan’s systemic importance to the global economy, it could be the source of a larger debt crisis. Even if Japan were not the source of a crisis, the government lacks the monetary and fiscal space — with interest rates still stuck at the zero lower bound and the government running fiscal deficits — that it would need to provide a policy buffer.

    In this week’s lead essay, Takashi Oshio explains some of the potential tipping points in structural trends with which Japanese policymakers will have to reckon with. The domestic savings that have helped fund bond purchases will continue to fall with Japan’s ageing population — the elderly are a large and growing proportion of the population, and they earn and save less. Japan’s current account surplus will head into deficit eventually, and the marginal debt holder will be foreign, not Japanese.

    ‘If gross government debt keeps climbing at a faster pace than household net financial assets’, Oshio explains, ‘it will become more difficult to absorb newly issued government bonds in the market’. And this ‘may trigger a punitive increase in the interest rate, which could immediately threaten debt sustainability’.

    If interest rates shoot up, the Bank of Japan could bail the government out by buying large quantities of government bonds, though this would cause high inflation and bring down the real value of debt. High inflation would be very disruptive and is precisely what the Bank of Japan is mandated to avoid.

    Masahiko Takeda reminds us that there are only four ways to reduce Japan’s high public debt. High inflation is one way, and this would avoid the second way: for the government to default on its debt. The other two debt reduction strategies — for Japan to grow its way out with high economic growth or to run primary budget surpluses by spending less than it taxes — would be the best but are the most difficult to achieve.

    http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/08/06/is-japans-mountain-of-public-debt-a-threat-to-financial-stability/

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  523. @reiner Tor

    I’m not so much of a nationalist as I am a Han racialist. 翻清,复明! The Communist Party is wasting effort and money all the time. First with stupid support for third world revolutions, up to and including sending food during the great leap forward to feed Albania of all people. Now with this belt and road garbage that is at best a waste of money and at worst going to send stupid churkas, africans, and whatever flotsam is out there into China. I’d be positively despondent were not our primary enemies (USA and to a lesser degree) even more self destructive or in a worse state.

    The Chinese simply cannot survive in a multicultural world.The truth is our race simply is culturally and maybe even biologically maladapted for it. Like flightless birds who evolved on some isolated island. The old fashioned reactionaries that wanted to shut China off from the rest of the world I’ve come to gradually realize were correct on a very fundamental level. That Korea and Japan also likewise spent centuries of the pre modern era almost completly isolated from outsiders seems in hindsight a good idea. North Korea is literally the only healthy East Asian society. It’s poor because of Stalinism on steroids that wrecked functioning markets. But it is healthy in every other way that counts.

  524. @Daniel Chieh

    Wow. Many thanks for that. If this is what 5000 years of culture gets you, I’m in. She is a fabulous musician and a lady of the highest elegance, a white ghost girl with fire in her soul, what a combination. She must have slayed a host of men because she just slayed me.

  525. myself says:
    @gmachine1729

    - multicultural societies not able to remain intact for long

    Please, allow me a comment, though you were addressing your query to Duke of Qin.

    In summary, there is nothing wrong with multiethnic societies, but a whole lot that is unsustainable with multicultural ones.

    The first instance, that of multi-ethnicity, is a matter of the physical – genetics, appearance, so forth. These, while real enough, are not the core essence of identity and the self-concept of a tribe, any tribe.

    The second instance, the state of being multicultural, is in direct opposition to identity and therefore to tribal cohesion and shared goals and aspirations.

    In the early 20th century, the American nation (and yes, we WERE a nation, past-tense) was predicated on having a common culture into which people of all ethnicities aspired to assimilate – the “melting pot” analogy. It worked well enough.

    Today, we have multiple, mutually antagonistic cultures, what I would describe as tribes, within what is ostensibly a single society. America is “multicultural”. We are not one people, we are many.

    I do not see how such a thing is sustainable, so I would tend to agree with Duke of Qin

  526. bucky says:
    @reiner Tor

    I’m only going to speculate.

    But Chinese generally have a lot in common with the WWC. And it is Chinese labor which is why you can get this beautiful iPhone for a reasonable price.

    They see the alliance of the high and low. The societal elite with the non-functional populations. And they don’t understand because their elite might be stupid and heavy handed at times, but never outright hostile like America’s.

  527. @Talha

    You know, it would be nice if at least adoption of the theory had some kind of visible payoff. Evolution & HBD assumes survival of the fittest to be the sine qua non of human history and yet all the populations that gravitate towards these ideas tend to voluntarily go into a population nosedive.

    Evolution through selection seems to be an inevitable consequence of the combination of sexual reproduction and death, so I think of it as a scientific model of what in Christian theology is called “fallen nature”. If you are a statesman responsible for policies which determine incentives and hence influence selection, you could do worse than to try use a scientific model of fallen nature in predicting the consequences of your policies.

    On the other hand, if you read Orthodox Christian theologians from the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, their objections to evolution are concerned not with scientific claims (though they were not so comfortable with some of those either), but rather with the idea of evolution as “progress”, which they saw as a kind of idolatry, and which is of course meaningless scientifically, but still a common trope in the lay understanding of evolution.

    • Replies: @Talha
  528. @Duke of Qin

    So you also think 崖山之后无华夏? What do you think of the Mongol conquest of China?

    First with stupid support for third world revolutions, up to and including sending food during the great leap forward to feed Albania of all people.

    They even supported Pol Pot.

    Now with this belt and road garbage that is at best a waste of money and at worst going to send stupid churkas, africans, and whatever flotsam is out there into China.

    Yeah I’m not sure how to evaluate One Belt One Road. In English, it sounds so sinister. I don’t really trust what’s online about China in Africa. Only the people actually there know for real. It’s criticized as a debt trap. Well, maybe China can extract more natural resources from Africa through that?

    The Chinese simply cannot survive in a multicultural world.The truth is our race simply is culturally and maybe even biologically maladapted for it.

    You think China and Chinese should just keep to themselves and interact with the outside world only when necessary? You don’t think that China should try to “rule the world” like America has been doing through puppet regimes? What do you think China should do as the West crumbles from its liberal multiculturalism and dysgenic trends?

    As a Han racialist, wouldn’t you want more power for the Han race overseas as well? Seems like though your thesis has been that colonialism backfires on the colonists/rulers though, as evidenced by Muslims/blacks now in Europe, which means isolation is the best policy.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
  529. Okechukwu says:
    @China Exposed

    First of all, China only does well in terms of quantity of research paper publications, but when it comes to quality (such as citations per document) it lags far behind US, and overall still has ways to go (It’s the same thing with Chinese patents, by the way.)

    I don’t want to come off as a Sinophobe (because I’m not), but let’s state facts.

    You can gauge the respective positions of the two countries on the basis whose students are going where. American universities are bulging with Chinese students. There is no reciprocal traffic of American students to China. Notwithstanding Karlin’s fantasies, it’s inconceivable that the country that sends thousands of its people to the United States to study and learn is going to eclipse the United States in 10-20 years.

    Moreover, many of these Chinese are unqualified and under-educated. Thousands get caught cheating and are sent back to China. My wife, who is a post-doctoral fellow, is one of the few non-Chinese in her working group. Almost everyday she comes home with stories of how sloppy and uninformed the Chinese are; how they don’t observe basic safety protocols with potentially lethal chemicals. And how they lack the creativity to think beyond their rote learning. This girl is as sweet as can be. Her exasperation with the Chinese should not be construed as racism. But she does wonder how people so unqualified got to her lab.

  530. @Duke of Qin

    You think Chinese get along best with Russians/East Europeans. Not all that well with whites. Rather poorly with Indians. What about with Jews? (不知道为何,今年反犹情绪起,主要是他们在西方美国权利太大,有时我想是中国人最能reign in on them。) And Muslims too? (I know you’re rather anti-Muslim, I personally don’t really care much about them.) Elaborations on all these would be much welcome.

    By the way, my views on Chinese relations with other groups have been rather consistent with yours.

  531. AaronB says:
    @Duke of Qin

    The truth is our race simply is culturally and maybe even biologically maladapted for it. Like flightless birds who evolved on some isolated island. The old fashioned reactionaries that wanted to shut China off from the rest of the world I’ve come to gradually realize were correct on a very fundamental level.

    The Hermit Kingdom.

    I am sympathetic to that.

    If you are seeking to shelter a delicate and fragile way of life from a brutish world of conflict and strife that would be one thing. Shangri Las is real, and necessary.

    But that does not seem to be gmachines vision – rather he wishes to make you King Of The Brutes. The opposite of your vision.

    It reminds me of Aldous Huxley’s The Island. In the end the brutish world breaks in. Or Alex Garlands The Beach.

    It seems today the whole world must become a Shangri La – or no one can.

    And for Gods sake, stop describing your condition from the Western perspective of HBD as flightless birds maladapted etc – you really have been internally colonized.

    Why not celebrate your difference and judge the West as maladaptive – but you do not have enough cultural self confidence to do that.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Duke of Qin
  532. Talha says:
    @The Big Red Scary

    Evolution through selection seems to be an inevitable consequence of the combination of sexual reproduction and death

    I’m not arguing the mechanics of it; I’m arguing its deification.

    predicting the consequences of your policies

    I don’t mind this either.

    but rather with the idea of evolution as “progress”

    There is no progress with evolution – that is a loaded teleological assumption that evolution has no room for since there is no purpose. There is only survival, by any means necessary. According to the theory*, if the environment changes back (massive volcanic eruption, solar flares, etc. that knocks humanity back to the Iron Age) to one that demands a hominid with less intelligence and more physical strength, then those are the ones that will survive. Considerations of “progress” are irrelevant.

    Peace.

    *Technically, the theory need not necessarily be true or fully coherent – since it is a byproduct of the human mind which is also subject to the theory. It only needs to be useful for hominids to survive (like widespread polytheism was) until we adopt another theory en masse to help us survive.

  533. @Duke of Qin

    Duke of Qin, you are 100% correct to be a Han racialist and I support your position wholeheartedly, it is the only way to preserve your people. The problem is the Chinese are too adaptable. When they come to a country like Canada, they turn into white people, it even changes their faces. I can instantly distinguish a Canadian Chinese from a Chinese Chinese, particularly the girls, they lose an exquisite something that must never be lost. It might even have a biological component. In Canada we have many Caucasian guy/ Chinese lady couples and in their children the Caucasian genetics completely overwhelms the Asian genetics, they look Caucasian with a barely discernable modulation. So I say more power to your Han racialism, sir!

  534. Talha says:
    @Okechukwu

    No, it’s not unbelievable. On the improbable side since most folks don’t have that kind of cash to hire private security, but it’s not like you are also claiming to be a world-champion arm-wrestler and master violinist.

    I think your profile is credible. I know a Yoruban brother who is an engineer (I think either electrical or chemical, I forget) – very intelligent and enterprising guy. Also, an African American shaykh I keep up with on Twitter recently mentioned that one of his younger friends from Philly started up a lab:
    “It’s no surprise that Ishmail Abdus-Saboor, PhD, a post-doctoral fellow in Neuroscience, is starting his own lab at Penn in July. After all, he created his first lab when he was just 14 years old.”

    https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news-blog/2018/april/pennportal-into-a-thriving-science-career

    Peace.

    • Agree: Okechukwu
  535. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    you really have been internally colonized

    “We took the Children of Israel (with safety after bondage) across the sea. They came upon a people devoted entirely to some idols they had. They said: ‘O Moses! Fashion for us a god like unto the gods they have.’ He said: “Indeed you are an ignorant people.” (7:138)

    Peace.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  536. Okechukwu says:
    @Duke of Qin

    Now with this belt and road garbage that is at best a waste of money and at worst going to send stupid churkas, africans, and whatever flotsam is out there into China.

    Another Chinese supremacist moron suffering from a severe case of delusions of grandeur.

    Yeah, you Chinese are so “superior” and “refined” that you’re getting rounded-up and deported from Africa for eating up their wildlife and household pets.

    Chinese eat up Zimbabwe’s endangered wildlife

    One recent case in Zimbabwe involved the gruesome discovery of meat and skeletal remains of 40 tortoises, during a raid on Chinese workers’ homes in Masvingo province. The endangered Bell’s Hinged tortoises had been dropped into boiling water while still alive in order to separate the meat from the shell, police and animal welfare officials said.

    Authorities also found 13 live Bell’s Hinged tortoises — which are protected under international laws governing trade of endangered species — kept in steel drums without water or food.

    “It’s an ongoing trend. If it’s not tortoises, it’s dogs, if it’s not dogs, it’s pythons,” he said. “We’ve even been told that leopard is also in demand.”

    Two years ago, Chinese engineers installing transmitters in Matabeleland South were accused of stealing local dogs to kill and eat. Several Chinese nationals were arrested after being found brutally slaughtering dogs at their camp,

    https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-04-12/chinese-eat-zimbabwe-s-endangered-wildlife

    It seems to me that it’s the Africans that are refined, humane and enlightened as compared to the Chinese. So shut your stinking mouth.

    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    , @denk
  537. @gmachine1729

    Chinese civilization was hit with 3 disasters of decreasing severity during the 2nd millennium. The worst was the Mongol conquest which destroyed the Song. The next was when the Manchu usurpers who managed to steal the throne after Li Zicheng destroyed the Ming. Wu Sangui’s treason put into motion the disaster of pre-modern China. The last, but least was the Communist victory of the KMT. I am more ambivalent on this. It indisputably set China back materially, but whether or not it was socially destructive I can’t say for sure. If KMT victory in the civil war meant China was as self destructive as Taiwan is today, then I can heartily say that the Communist victory was a blessing no matter the cost in lives. The paranoia and enmity of the Communist Party with the West is a good thing as far as I am concerned because the memetic virulence of the West is poisonous.

    Isolation is the best policy. False friends are much more dangerous than incompetent enemies. We Chinese are really gullible, as soon as a foreigner utters an ounce of praise, we are ready to hand him the keys to our homes.

    Regarding Chinese and other peoples, I think our attitudes and ways of thinking are most similar to Northern Slavs; Poles, the Balts (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia) Russia, etc. The cultures and family arrangements are very different of course, but there is hard to describe similarity as to how the societies organize themselves in interpersonal relationships, a type of shared introversion that I’ve noticed we tend to have in common. In this we are very different from Anglos, Meds, Latin Americans, South Asians, Jews, etc.

    • Replies: @notanon
  538. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    It is the strangest thing to see these Chinese trying to prove their racial and civilizational superiority….by completely internalizing and submitting to Western values and trying to live up to them.

    Its like they still want Master to approve.

    If I were a Chinese nationalist I would find that gmachine person cringeworthy.

    • Replies: @Talha
  539. Talha says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Americans you met were UNAWARE

    I’m talking about high school, man. I didn’t know anybody who went to church other than the Mormons. They were grossly ignorant of who and what they were. They may have changed after becoming adults. As far as Jews; if they were Jews, they certainly never said anything to me about it. And at that age, I couldn’t tell a Jewish name from any other European name.

    I bet he was a redneck too

    Maybe, could have easily passed for one.

    You must have grown up in a poor white area.

    For a while – parts of Central California seemed like the trailer-park capitals of the world.

    but converts are often criminal types

    Sure; repentance – offers you a clean slate. Think about Malcolm X. A very famous hadith used for teaching is the one about the man who killed 99 people and was forgiven.

    Not always but Islam has always appealed to the poor.

    Definitely.

    Did they get all the way across Kashmir into Uttar Pradesh?

    I presume you’ve heard of the Delhi Sultanate? I can only speculate at this point, but Muslims could move around pretty freely in most of India for a large part of history. My ancestors could have come through as merchants or even preachers; we have known Sufi-scholars of the Chisti Order among my predecessors.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  540. h.borman says:

    The Truth About the China World Order

    https://www.corbettreport.com/interview-1387-the-truth-about-the-china-world-order/

    SHOW NOTES:

    China and the New World Order

    The Secret Battle for Africa

    Phony Opposition: The Truth About the BRICS

    The Death of SWIFT and the (Engineered) Death of the Dollar

    Echoes of WWI: China, the US, and the Next “Great” War

    The Strategic Aspect Of Bashing China’s Re-education of Uyghurs

  541. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    by completely internalizing and submitting to Western values and trying to live up to them

    It actually makes sense to me. Western values/ideology gave birth to the most materially advanced and opulent societies the planet has ever seen – bar none. If that is your goal, then you will readily take the baton and run the rest of the race. Why would you try to invent a new path instead of simply trying to best them at they game they defined and have played so well?

    Its like they still want Master to approve.

    If you don’t already have a Master, you will surely find one or he will find you…and he will give you your religion.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @RadicalCenter
  542. @Okechukwu

    I’m glad you feel that way. Please feel free to remind all your African friends and Whites one too for that matter so that they will have nothing to do with us. Also please inform them that America is great and that they should all move there with their young children to make it greater still.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  543. @Jeff Stryker

    Just two quibbles: plenty of Irish folks are Protestant, including Northern Ireland in the UK.

    And a fair number of the people at the Protestant church we attend in California.

    As fur Mexicans, don’t overestimate how white they are. Most Mexicans in Mexico are mestizo (mixed white/Indian but typically majority nonwhite) or Indio. Small minority of Mexico is white European to the same extent as most white Americans.

  544. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    Fair enough, but Qin is going on about how the Chinese are basically different than the West to the point where they must isolate themselves….so that they can live a lifestyle that is based on Western values? Then how are they different?

    Its incoherent – but I respect it, because Qin obviously feels nostalgic for the loss of Chinese values but lacks the intellectual framework to understand this – I can relate – and the cultural and personal self confidence to simply tell Western values to go f*** themselves. He is only half mentally colonized by the West.

    Gmachine is much more logical and consistent – but he’s fully mentally colonized by the West, and thus wants to beat Master at his own game – based on rules created by Master, of course.

    Anyways, poor Chinese. Dont think I fully realized how conflicted they are.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @gmachine1729
  545. @AaronB

    He wants what I want. My people preserved. Our sons growing up tall and proud and secure in our homeland. How this is achieved is up for debate, the goals align even if methods don’t.

    The west is maladaptive too, perhaps even more so than us because it has no history of seeking splendid isolation but rather perpetual expansion. That it is no longer able to do so has perhaps driven it crazy. The meek wont inherit the Earth. Rather the incompetent, the dysfunctional, the wretched, the parasitical. Cultural confidence does nothing in the face of that threat and it is more rightfully Western overconfidence that is speeding it along in its destruction. You are, I suspect just fond of trolling and Talha is yet another Mohammedan troll, though a more adroit one than most. He can be nonchalant because his people can count themselves among the scum that will inherit the earth.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @AaronB
  546. @Anonymous

    I disagree. The Indians can always draw upon certain ‘martial’ groups: Sikhs in particular a d punjabis in general. It worked well for the British.
    India can’t overcome it’s culture of selfishness. They will never accept tax rates like the West thus will never have a literate, educated population.
    Tldr -shifting in the street is India.

  547. EmilKarpk says:
    @Jeff Stryker

    Asians are less likely to express this by killing a white as often as Mestizos or Blacks do. Would you want to walk through Tokyo or the LA barrio/ghetto at night.

    Much the same can be said of Orthodox Eastern Europe. Unless the area is Gypsy a foreigner is perfectly safe at any hour night or day. with Gypsies they may strip you of everything they probably won’t kill you and in a day or two give you the chance to buy everything back.

  548. Talha says:
    @Duke of Qin

    Talha is yet another Mohammedan troll

    Yet another??!! What the hell – that’s my schtick – who’s the other Mohammadan wise-guy around here??!!

    He can be nonchalant because his people can count themselves among the scum that will inherit the earth.

    Indeed – it’s in good hands as it’s always been:
    “Moses said to his people, ‘Seek help with Allah and be steadfast. The earth belongs to Allah. He gives it as a heritage – to such as He wills of His servants. And the final outcome belongs to the God-conscious.’” (7:128)

    Don’t sweat the technique…

    Peace.

  549. AaronB says:
    @Duke of Qin

    But if your people are preserved and grow proud and tall in your homeland, but at the price of becoming just another version of Westerners?

    It would be the final and total victory of the West over your people.

    There is a good analogy with psychopaths – psychopaths carefully calibrate their abuse until they transform good people into hate filled carbon copies of them. You would think they wouldn’t want to create more aggressive competitive people but would prefer others remain sheep – but no.

  550. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    Adopting Western values makes sense once you have bought onto the paradigm that material success and technological advancement as the raison detre of human beings or at least what defines the highest value.

    how the Chinese are basically different than the West to the point where they must isolate themselves….so that they can live a lifestyle that is based on Western values? Then how are they different?

    This part doesn’t make sense – it’s the same cognitive dissonance that our people already dealt with; “I am the Father of the Turks – the greatest people; we must adopt the ways of the Europeans!!!”

    It’s OK man, this is just growing pains – the Chinese have been around for a heck of a long time – this is a blip.

    beat Master at his own game – based on rules created by Master, of course.

    Bingo – but if you have no other game – you’ll play the only one in town.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Nznz
  551. AaronB says:
    @Talha

    Agree with all. Good comment.

  552. Michael7 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    @Mr. Hack

    Indeed. As a kid, I really liked the musical antics of the Yellow Magic Orchestra (YMO). Still looking for a reissued box set of their stuff, that is often being done today at very reasonable prices.

    I was fortuitous in that I managed to get all their albums years ago, before much of it was discontinued. Japanese labels, though somewhat finicky, will sometimes reissue albums from their back catalog. Given YMO’s wide popularity, it should be relatively easy to track down most of their stuff whether new or used.

    I am also, however, interested in Chinese music too. On several occasions, listening to the radio, I’ve encountered very large sounding, lush Chinese classical music that goes beyond the more traditional, sparser sounding classical Chinese music. Perhaps you know of what I speak and could help me out here? Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to capture the names of the artists and records that I was listening to.

    Not sure what that is you’re referring to, sorry about that. I’m only somewhat familiar with their traditional pieces. However, if you type in ‘Chinese music compilation’ or something like that into YouTube, maybe you’ll come across what you’re looking for. Best of luck.

  553. Okechukwu says:
    @Duke of Qin

    I’m glad you feel that way. Please feel free to remind all your African friends and Whites one too for that matter so that they will have nothing to do with us.

    I notice you don’t intend to advise your Chinese friends to leave Africa or America or France or Germany or England or Canada or Malaysia or Indonesia. Btw, only a couple of those countries haven’t had anti-Chinese riots.

    Also please inform them that America is great and that they should all move there with their young children to make it greater still.

    Ironically, the Chinese have already heeded this advice, as for the last several years they have constituted the largest group of new arrivals and new naturalized citizens in the United States.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  554. DB Cooper says:
    @RadicalCenter

    “The people of Tibet and East Turkestan (“Xinjiang”) and Mongolia would beg to differ.”

    That’s only if you are so clueless as to take the main stream media line. If you go there and actually know the people, the ethnic Tibetans and other ethnic groups in Xinjiang by and large very much support the Chinese state, even more so than the majority Han people.

    If you feel that it is hard to believe what I said, it is only because of your lack of imagination.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  555. @Talha

    Astonishingly well stated, and realistic.

  556. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @AaronB

    lol

    Jeff Stryker is the typical white expat down to the T.

    Every white expat moans about how much they hate their own country, yet when they move to a new place they always try to make their new country more Western.

    Also, every white expat suddenly becomes an expert on foreign affairs and culture and wants to write a book.

    Jeff, at least try to be different!

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Jeff Stryker
  557. @DB Cooper

    Now be nice. No lack of imagination, and no lack of skepticism towards the MSM account of anything, on this end.

    For example, I realize, as another commenter noted, that the US and allies/vassals would criticize China’s handling of the Uighur situation no matter who seemed to be more in the right.

    But do I honestly think, based on what I’ve read and heard so far, that people in the regions that have been subsumed by the Han and today the PRC were fine with it? No.

    As for the Uighurs, I can readily understand China wanting to minimize the influence of Islam in their country, wherever it expands.

    • Replies: @DB Cooper
  558. @Okechukwu

    Terrible news. We live in LA and they are typically freaking rude. (So I guess they fit right in, in this particularly rude corner of the USA ;)

  559. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @AP

    Cowboys? Seriously?

    I’m talking about modern culture in America. Not some rodeo in Oklahoma.

  560. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jason Liu

    Jason, this is an overly nihilistic view I believe. I think the main problem with China is that China has never had a middle class.

    It has only been elites and peasants and the only way for China to survive is to evolve a large middle class with a small poor population and a small elite population.

  561. Anonymous[191] • Disclaimer says:
    @China Exposed

    lol.

    India has an IQ of 82. It isn’t quantity if people it is quality.

    How can India become something when it can’t figure out how to use a toilet?

    Is demographics really the only thing you have for India Superpower 2030?

  562. AaronB says:
    @Anonymous

    Jeff Stryker is an interesting commenter. I would not mock him.

    • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  563. @Mr. Hack

    There is no good understanding of precisely when and why currencies displace each other as the global reserve currencies.

    In the past century, we see a couple of transitions: From GBP domination to USD/GBP bipolarity between 1914 and 1920, and to USD dominance after the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement.

    During the first period, US GDP was already twice higher, and the UK became heavily indebted due to WW1.

    During the second transition, US GDP was already thrice higher, and gained even more in relative terms over the course of WW2.

    Now analogizing this to the next few decades:

    1. China will soon enough (2030s?) break the 2x mark vs. the US, and should converge to 3x the level of the US if the South Korea analogy turns out accurate (2040s?).

    2. Sure, there’s all those Chinese bad loans. But you can’t consider that in isolation. US debt is now higher than its GDP, it will be running a trillion dollar deficit next year in the midst of an economic boom, and its net international investment position is deeply negative (-43% of GDP) whereas China is firmly in the black (+16% of GDP). This is compounded by runaway entitlements spending. By any reasonable standard the US is a much worse long-term fiscal position.

    3. But what about muh rule of law and case law and trade deficits. Okay, sure. But you also have to balance that against modern technology making a plurality of reserve currencies much more technically feasible.

    McCoy also points out that China most likely will never be able to replace the US as a cultural all-star due to the parochialism of its language and culture. Have you read his article? Contrast it to your own for an interesting and different point of view.

    How exactly is my point of view different? Did you read what I wrote under “Cultural Power”?: I am more skeptical about China’s potential to be competitive in the cultural sphere… By extension, I suspect we may have to wait for the second half of the century for a Chinese cultural renaissance.

    Also, ‘ChinaExposed’ recently left an excellent differing point of view than your own, hopefully, he’s not a ‘troll’ too?

    No, he’s fine, though obviously I am skeptical about most of what he says. I might reply to him tomorrow if I have time.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  564. Agent76 says:

    Oct 1, 2016 RISE OF CHINA – China’s Yuan / RMB

    Joins Elite Global Reserve Currency Club Currency’s entry into IMF basket a milestone in long march to international acceptance Renminbi joins U.S. dollar, euro, yen, and British pound in SDR basket Change represents important milestone for IMF, SDR, and China Move recognizes and reinforces China’s continuing reform progress.

  565. @Talha

    “I couldn’t tell a Jewish name from any other European name”

    That’s because a Gora is a Gora to a South Asian whereas even trailer-trash knows an Indian with a name like Singh or Kaur is Sikh.

    You probably DIDN’T grow up around Jews but rather poor Anglo-Saxons (Who purported to be part Native American).

    “Clean slate”

    Low-caste Hindus like Black Americans practice a gangster version. Of course just as Hinduism offers the low-cast Indian nothing so does Christianity offer the poor black little. Of course low-caste Indians have ALWAYS converted to other religions.

    “Delhi Sultanate”

    So your not an actual Pakistani like a Sindhi but rather a Partition-era migrant from India.

    I’ve heard Brahmin from Utter Pradesh claim to trace their roots to Aryans from the Caspian Sea so anything is possible.

    • Replies: @Talha
  566. @Okechukwu

    Not very smart, Karlin, to link to another thread where you tried to debate me and got clobbered.

    Sure thing, Genius T. Okechukwu. Here is one of your very first comments on that thread:

    Actually, hundreds of millions of Africans are wealthier and live better than hundreds of millions of Chinese. The African middle class is larger, as a percentage of the population, than China’s.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/sweden-no/#comment-2341685

    This is to explain to readers why I do not bother to engage you seriously. You are a classic IYI – just about intelligent enough to regurgitate whatever talking points you pick up from NYT/WaPo op-eds and appear intelligent, not informed or intelligent enough to come up with anything interesting or original by yourself – or even avoid making a fool of yourself due to a lack of general knowledge.

    As I said on the thread you linked to, you reflect the values that made those who care about me concerned for my safety in Moscow. That’s why I’ve had private security every time I’ve been there. I am not without resources. I can afford it.

    Your knowledge of Russia is obviously, transparently confined to op-eds about Russian skinheads and how it contains half the world’s Nazis.

    In reality, the idea that you would need security in Moscow of all places is absurd to anyone who actually lives here. (Pro tip: Next time make it a small provincial town on the next venue you troll for greater plausibility).

    You see, it would have been plausible if you’d said you’d hired security on your own initiative – then that could be ascribed to ignorance/delusion. But you claim that was Russians who “care” for you. This is what reveals your story as a crock of BS.

    Your response to this? That I actually live in America and my presence in Russia is an elaborate hoax.

    TLDR:
    1. You are really stupid.
    2. Ignorant.
    3. A liar, and an incompetent one at that (but it can hardly be helped).
    4. Malicious.

    You do spell better than a Nigerian prince, I’ll give you that.

    • Replies: @Okechukwu
  567. @AaronB

    Hahahaha, I’m fully mentally colonized by the West? And want to beat Master as his own game – based on rules created by Master? I’m also fully aware that China cannot win at that game, that to win China will have to gradually change the rules of that game to its favor.

    This is coming from a guy who came to the US in first grade but mostly out of his own initiative learned to read and write Chinese fluently. Doing so is already sort of a rebellion against the Master’s game. Now I’m only taking it much further with blogging and such.