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In his September 1, 2017 speech to incoming Russian schoolchildren, Putin made waves by proclaiming that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become “ruler of the world.” This provoked a variety of reactions, from Elon Musk commenting on his belief that competition for AI superiority will be the likeliest cause of World War III to discussions of the geopolitical aspects of the “control problem” at the more esoteric rationalist venues like /r/slatestarcodex. Many of the reactions were skeptical, citing Russia’s traditional weaknesses at commercializing its inventions. Nonetheless, Bloomberg columnist Leonid Bershidsky, who can hardly be called a Russia optimist, cautioned that Musk’s concerns be taken seriously, citing a range of civilian and military AI applications being developed in Russia.

But here’s another story that happened to unfold on the same day. Back in 2015, Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostekh state technology corporation – one of Putin’s KGB chums from their time in 1980s East Germany – proudly presented the Russian President with one of his company’s latest “innovatory” offerings: A thin, double-screen, YotaPad-based tablet which was “of entirely Russian make”, meant to be used as an electronic textbook in schools. But they were actually made in Taiwan, and when the devices were distributed to some Russian schoolchildren at the start of the school year, it emerged that they took three minutes to start up, only worked with a stylus, and weighed 1.5 kilograms. According to an investigation by the online journal Znak, the device in question was actually a slightly rebranded version of the American device enTourage eDGe, an outdated and unsuccessful product from 2009 that could be bought wholesale for $20 apiece as of 2015 (you can still get it for $30 on Ebay today). Meanwhile, the official cost of the 8,000 tablets in the trial electronic textbook program was 24o million rubles, which translates to around $500 apiece. This isn’t even very impressive innovation so far as siphoning away taxpayer money into private pockets is concerned, to say nothing of technology.

So which of these stories best reflects the real state of Russian science and technology?

The one in which a technologically adept elite are seriously driving the development of things like strong AI and pondering on its world-historical consequences – or the one in which a clique of kleptocrats pay lip service to innovation while skimming off even the modest resources they bother investing into science and technology?

As per usual, I believe that the best guide aren’t anecdotes, which are the singular of “statistics,” but numbers, numbers, and more numbers in international comparison, as I did in 2006 with respect to China’s scientific/technological convergence with the United States in terms of indicators like published scientific articles published, the prevalence of industrial robots, and the number of supercomputers. I will repeat the same exercise, but with Russia.

Scientific Articles

The SJR maintains a database of scientific publications by country and subject for the past 20 years.

russia-global-scientific-articles

The Soviet Union in 1986 produced around 7.6% of the world’s scientific articles, which was a quarter of the American rate and comparable to other leading industrialized countries like the UK, Japan, West Germany, and France. In the wake of the brain drain and financial collapse in the wake of the USSR’s dissolution, this figure plummeted to below 3% by the mid-1990s and below 2% by the mid-2000s, in a drop made all the more remarkable by the absence of a “publish or perish” scientific culture in the erstwhile USSR. It was only in 2014 that Russia’s relative standing began to recover.

However, with 73,000 articles published in 2016, Russia remains far below the United States (602,000) and China (471,000), as well the bigger European countries like the UK (183,000), Germany (166,000), and France (113,000). As the 13th most scientifically productive country in the world, it is wedged in between South Korea and Brazil. This is true across the board. For instance, even in the sphere where Russia does best, in the Soviet mainstay of “Physics and Astronomy”, it is still only fourth in the world with 23,000 articles, well behind both China (79,000) and the United States (59,000).

Moreover, even the very modest overall figures conceal a yawning gap in some of the most recent and prospective spheres of modern science. Before worrying about the dangers of AI “eating us” – let alone fantasizing about “sharing this know-how with the entire world” – it would have perhaps served Putin better to first concern himself with the question of why Russia only published 552 papers in the field of AI in 2016, relative to 11,800 in China and 6,700 in the US. Another important sphere that is seeing blistering progress are the genomic sciences, some of whose applications – for instance, human germline engineering for higher IQ – will be world-transforming. Could Russia lead the world in producing “[genetically] spellchecked supermen“? With 690 published papers on Genetics to America’s 13,600 and China’s 9,600, 386 in Biotechnology to China’s 7,100 and America’s 6,400, and 350 in Bioengineering to China’s 6,600 and America’s 4,900, this question answers itself.

The state of affairs in the social sciences is even worse. While Russia’s two (sic) published articles in Women’s Studies in 2016 are nothing to worry about – sooner the converse – that’s about where the happy news ends. Not only do the social sciences suffer from all the other weaknesses of Russian science, but the Soviet legacy there is, if anything, negative value added.

For instance, one sphere that I am personally highly familiar with, psychometrics – the science of measuring mental capacities and processes – was declared a “bourgeois pseudoscience” in 1936, with research in it banned up until the 1970s (though they, unlike the geneticists, seem to have at least largely escaped Stalin’s murderous gaze). Consequently, pretty much all of it had to be re-imported wholesale from the West. While there are now some very good people working on psychometrics in Russia, they have to do it on ageing computers in a creaking building, and financed almost exclusively by European grants.

Far from atypical, this is a steady pattern in the social sciences. To take another example, consider Sinology. Many of the USSR’s leading Orientalists were executed in the late 1930s on spying charges (trumped up ones, I hope it goes without saying). Today, as China expert Alexander Gabuev explained in a couple of articles in Kommersant several years ago, which I summarized in a recent article for The Unz Review (The State of Russian Sinology: Past Chequered, Present Dismal, Future Uncertain), the field of China Studies in Russia is a minnow relative both to China Studies in the West, and to Russia Studies in China. And why should it be otherwise? As of when Gabuev wrote his overviews, the average salary of a docent at the prestigious Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Studies was around $500. Consequently, there is a near total lack of expertise in the country that Kremlin talking points describe as Russia’s “strategic partner.” Though one can cite any number of amazing anecdotes from Gabuev’s articles, I will limit myself to just one. During the Russian-Chinese military exercises “Maritime Cooperation 2012,” the Chinese had nearly 200 young officers with a solid knowledge of Russian at hand to provide linguistic support; the Russians could only muster three translators, and presumably, the Russian GRU intelligence service’s sole China analyst wasn’t one of them. Consequently, not only is the Russian military’s degree of China expertise incomparably lower than America’s, but it is also likely far lower than the PLA’s understanding of the Russian military.

One observes a catastrophic lack of understanding of China across the entirety of the Russian ideological spectrum, not least as regards the extent to which their own country is falling behind.

Scientific Articles: Adjusted for Quality

But if Russia’s raw research output is nothing to write home about, it diminishes to near irrelevance when adjusted for quality.

Here’s one important thing you should know about our world if it were a Civilization playthrough: The Anglo-Saxons have won the Cultural Victory. The majority of cultural output in the world happens in the English language, and this rises to at least 95% so far as science and technology are concerned. The Germans were competitive earlier in the century, before the Nazis (and American demographics) ruined everything, and the Soviet Union maintained a technical mini-civilization partly secluded from the global mainstream, but since its collapse, the Anglo system has become the only game in town.

Most of the really important scientific research gets published in a handful of high-impact factor journals. If there is a proxy for modern day scientific productivity adjusted for quality, and without the generational lag problems that you encounter with the Nobel Prizes, then it is the number of articles an institution or country manages to publish in those elite journals, which are proxied by the Nature Index.

# Country Physics Chem Life Total
1 USA 4307 4567 6674 15157
2 China 1970 4025 795 6380
3 Germany 1411 1372 940 3593
4 UK 965 947 1126 3039
5 Japan 879 1116 581 2538
6 France 755 542 468 1811
7 Canada 315 421 483 1229
8 Switzerland 400 345 319 1019
9 South Korea 462 542 141 990
10 Spain 373 442 190 980
11 Italy 503 234 171 909
12 Australia 243 268 280 835
13 India 300 408 81 804
14 Netherlands 275 234 245 744
15 Sweden 152 140 181 452
16 Israel 175 132 162 442
17 Singapore 150 232 80 404
18 Russia 252 98 27 377
19 Belgium 123 114 112 336
20 Taiwan 134 157 57 332
21 Denmark 108 79 111 299
22 Austria 110 82 105 285
23 Brazil 144 34 57 246
24 Poland 114 74 18 204
25 Finland 70 42 52 160

Source: Nature Index, WFC 2016

The US absolutely dominates high-quality research, producing about a third of the world’s total, even though China has gained considerably ground, going from 9% of the global total in WFC 2012 to 14% as of today.

russia-global-share-nature-index

Despite modest improvements since 2012, Russia remains a complete minnow, accounting for less than 1% of elite global scientific research. It is worth noting that it lags China not only absolutely, but in per capita terms as well. In total, Russia produces as much elite level science as does Singapore, Belgium… and the University of Cambridge.

It is hard to imagine any plausible adjustment which would cardinally improve its position. Although it is possible that Russia’s scientific potential is somewhat underestimated by linguistic insularity and its incomplete integration with the global science scene, this is unlikely to be a major factor; since Russia is not actually a world scientific leader in any sphere but a few rather narrow areas of metallurgy and nuclear physics, much of the conversations that take place in exclusively Russian language journals will be outdated and useless. It is also likely that a significantly larger chunk of Russian scientific research relates to military applications than in most other countries, and is effectively “black.” That said, even we assume – very generously – that this underestimation is on the order of 50%, that would still mean that 146 million Russians produce fewer Science Points than the 8 million citizens of Switzerland. Even in Physics, its area of greatest relative strength, Russia barely manages to match Australia; as for the Life Sciences, it is nestled in between Czechia and Argentina.

This analysis is backed up by the performance of individual Russian institutions and scientists.

russia-top-10-nature-index

The most productive (and elite) Russian university, Moscow State University, is in 254th place on the Nature Index, alongside the likes of Oregon State University and the University of Liverpool; fine institutions though they might well be, they do not have a reputation as academic powerhouses. Although Russians tend to complain about the low positions of their universities on international rankings – and I will admit to having once espoused such beliefs myself – it is worth noting that since Moscow State University is 93rd on the latest ARWU Shanghai Ranking and 194th on the THES ranking, it would seem that if anything, the rankings overstate Russia’s performance.

There are a grand total of three Russia-based researchers in Clarivate Analytics’ database of highly cited researchers (of whom only one, Sergey V. Morozov, has his primary affiliation there; the other two primarily work in Spain and the United States). Amazingly, this means that there are as many Russian highly cited researchers in just one American university, U.C. Berkeley – Alexey Filippenko, Igor Grigoriev, Natalia Ivanova – as there are in the whole of Russia! In fairness, Russia’s BRICs rivals Brazil and India don’t do substantially better. However, China has long left its colleagues behind; there are almost 200 highly cited researchers who have their primary affiliation in the Heavenly Kingdom, who are producing 20% of the world’s high-impact academic publications as of 2016.

R&D/Academic Personnel

Russia spends a relatively low but far from catastrophic 1.1% of its GDP on R&D, which is similar to the Mediterranean and Visegrad countries. It also used to have one of the highest concentrations of researchers in the world, with almost 8/1,000 workers employed in R&D, which was higher than the equivalent figures in all the major OECD countries except Japan. Since then, this figure has declined to 6/1,000 even as the average OECD figures went up, so here Russia, too, now keeps company with the Mediterranean and Visegrad. Even so, this was hardly a disaster – the USSR overproduced “researchers” in the same way as it overproduced “doctors” and “engineers”, many of whom would have been mere nurses or technicians in the West. So the thinning out of a good fraction of those fake “researchers” should in theory have been a good thing, assuming that the system was purging itself of dead wood. But the reality was sooner the other way round. Due to the utter lack of prospects in Russian academia, the most talented either continued to emigrate West (with the bulk of that outflow occuring in the 1990s), or went into the private sector.

Many explanations have been proposed as to why Russian science has been in an unending death spiral. Some of the more ideological works cite factors such as the lack of democracy and human rights, and its estrangement from the West – as if Yeltsin’s Russia was a fount of innovation (or democracy, for that matter), while the scientific explosion in modern day China is a mirage (not to mention countless historical counterexamples, e.g. the most scientifically dynamic country in the world prior to World War I was authoritarian Wilhelmine Germany). In Becky Ferreira’s recent profile of Russian science for VICE, one researcher is quoted as saying the following: “If people really only went to countries which do not invade other countries and respect human rights, then they would stick to countries like Andorra or Bhutan… Maybe it sounds a bit cynical, but in my observation, most people in science are driven by opportunities. Regardless of whether such an attitude is moral or not, it is clear that science should be free of any politics.

No, the real reasons are much more banal: Money, or rather the lack thereof.

According to an exhaustive study of global academic salaries published in 2012, the average Russian academic received 2-4x less money than his equivalents in Visegrad, the Baltics, and even Kazakhstan, and an order of magnitude less than in the developed world.

academic-salary-by-country

Source: Paying the Professoriate by Philip G. Altbach et al. (2012).

Here is what the authors have to say about the practical consequences of this breadcrumbs-based approach to scientific funding:

In Russia, young faculty earn approximately 70 percent of the average wage in the workforce; professors’ salaries often fall 10 percent below the average wage of others in the workforce who have completed higher education. In most countries, a middle-class income generally depends on additional employment, either within the same institution, at another academic institution, or in nonacademic employment. All of this added pressure decreases the attractiveness of the academic career and will further deter the “best and brightest” from choosing academe.

Finally, it would be remiss not to mention the astounding prevalence of corruption in Russian academia. According to a Slate article by Leon Neyfakh, the Russian plagiarism detection project Dissernet has found improper borrowing in around 4% of all the dissertations defended in Russia. This doesn’t include plagiarism-free ghostwritten work: Ararat Osipian, a specialist in academic corruption, estimates that around a quarter of all dissertations written in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union were purchased.

There have also been private complaints of “ethnic capture” of certain Russian academic departments, primarily by Caucasians. To the best of my knowledge, this is an unquantified phenomenon (though it would not surprise me if this was true, since such a pattern has been confirmed in Italy, where as you go south – which is more corrupt – the incidence of identical surnames within university departments increases, indicating rising nepotism). However, consider the case of the Ingush. They produced six times fewer scientists per capita than Russians during the less corrupt Soviet period; today, their homeland is the highest unemployment, most subsidized region in Russia. And yet they somehow manage to have the highest concentration of postgrads per capita in all of Russia, around 50% more than in second-place Moscow. I will leave readers to draw their own conclusions.

As if the poverty level wages were not enough, the corruption and cronyism also cannot help but discourage the more talented and conscientious from academic careers.

R&D Equipment

The age when enthusiasts could jerry-rig their own scientific equipment are long gone. You need powerful supercomputers to simulate protein folding, climate change, and the integrity of your nuclear arsenal. You need high throughput sequencers to do serious experimental work in genetics.

But money isn’t any more forthcoming here than it is for salaries.

Supercomputers

Twice a year, the Top 500 website compiles a list of the world’s five hundred most powerful supercomputers. Since 2010, China has exploded out of the margins to overtake the United States – as of November 2017, it had 202 top supercomputers to America’s 143, and that included the world’s most powerful supercomputer, the Sunway TaihuLight, which runs on entirely Chinese processors.

top500-supercomputers-2017-nov

Table: Country Share of Top 500 supercomputers in November 2017

Russia’s performance is… rather underwhelming – its measly 0.6% global share of the world’s top 500 supercomputers is equivalent to Switzerland, and lower than that of Sweden, Ireland, and Saudi Arabia.

russia-top-500-supercomputers

Nor are the trends encouraging. While there was an uptick in Russia’s numbers of top 500 supercomputers to around 2% of the world total around 2010-2011, those figures have been dwindling ever since.

High Throughput sequencers

James Hadfield maintains a reasonably up to date map of the world’s high throughput DNA sequencers. The current version of the map isn’t easily readable, but here is a screenshot from 2013.

map-world-dna-sequencers

This is a very typical picture: A modest cluster in Moscow, while the rest of North Eurasia is a scientific desert.

Commercialization

Russia’s performance in patent applications isn’t too bad by global standards – comparable in per capita terms to the UK and France, much higher than in the BRICS minus China (and it’s not exactly a secret that many East Asian patents are of a spurious nature).

Patent applications (2015)
China 968,252
United States 288,335
Japan 258,839
Korea, Rep. 167,275
Germany 47,384
Russian Federation 29,269
United Kingdom 14,867
France 14,306
India 12,579
Turkey 5,352
Poland 4,676
Brazil 4,641

But you can’t realize ideas without money, and despite growing by leaps and bounds in the past decade, the Russian venture capital industry remains tiny from a global perspective.

europe-vc-funding-2016

In 2016, VC funding in Russia (€295 million) was at the level of Ireland (€367 million) and Finland (€324 million) in absolute terms, though a bit above sluggish and overly bureaucratic Italy (€162 million).

And this is relative to Europe, a continent that grossly underperforms relative to its wealth and demographics. According to another source, the old continent had just $14.4 billion worth of VC activity in 2015, relative to $72.3 billion in the United States, $49.2 billion in China, and $8.0 billion in India.

In per capita terms, this means that VC funding in Russia it is at just around 5% of the Chinese level and 1% of the American level.

This expresses itself across the entire range of the hi-tech sphere, but we will just focus on one of the most important and “hip” applications.

Artificial Intelligence Startups

Let’s go back to artificial intelligence, the brains behind the coming wave of automation. How does Russia stack up?

map-europe-artificial-intelligence-startups

It accounts for 13 of Europe’s estimated 409 AI startups as of mid-2017…

map-world-artificial-intelligence-startups

… or just 0.7% of the world’s 1951 total.

The US enjoys near total dominance in this sphere – with more than a thousand AI startups, it accounts for more than half of the world total. China is assuredly moving into second place position, hurtling past Japan and the major European countries.

Meanwhile, Russia is once again in the company of countries like Sweden, Finland, and Switzerland, who have less than 10% of its population.

ai-funding-china-triumph

According to a just released report by CB Insights, in 2017 China leapfrogged past the US to dominate global equity funding to AI startups. They are fast becoming the only two relevant countries in this sphere, with countries that are not China or the US accounting for a mere 13% of the global total.

Robotics

For all the lunacies of the Soviet economic system, their planners did at least appreciate the importance of robotics and their role in enhancing productivity in manufacturing.

world-robotics-history

Source: International Federation of Robotics – World Robotics 2005

At the time of its collapse, the USSR had an operational stock of around 60,000 multipurpose industrial robots. In practice, this is a very inflated figure – a large percentage were simple, even hand-operated tools that would not have been counted as industrial robots anywhere in the capitalist world. Still, the Soviet level of industrial robotization in the 1980s was at least broadly comparable to the developed world, and several orders of magnitude higher than in a China just emerging out of its Maoist slumber.

Until the early 2000s, the publicly available databases generally didn’t even include the numbers of industrial robots in Chinese factories, so small and insignificant were their quantities. But from the late 2000s, the robotization of Chinese industry began to explode. As of 2016, it accounted for about 30% of the world industrial robots market, overtook Japan to become the country with the world’s largest operational stock of multipurpose industrial robots, and leveled with the United Kingdom in robot density.

Conversely, it has since become hard to even find any specific data for Russia… According to the World Robotics 2013 – Industrial Robots report, Russia had an operational stock of around 1,771 multipurpose industrial robots as of 2012.

operation-stock-industrial-robots-2012

Source: World Robotics 2013 – Industrial Robots

world-robotics-2013-robot-density

Source: World Robotics 2013 – Industrial Robots (2011 data)

Russia’s (total!) figures are slightly higher than in Slovenia, but lower than in Slovakia. In per capita terms, the rate of robotization per worker in Russia in Russia hovers between that of India and Iran, and is far behind middle-income industrial countries like Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico, to say nothing of a China fast gallivanting its way up to the levels of its super-automated East Asian peers.

ifr-2018-robot-density

Source: International Federation of Robotics – Feb 2018 press release on robot density (2016 data)

The state of affairs today isn’t any better. A 2016 report from the Russian robotics association NAURR presents two different datasets about the rate of introduction of new robots onto the Russian market in recent years.

world-robotics-2015-russia-robots

Sales of robots in Russia, 2005-2014
Graph: World Robotics 2015

fanuc-russia-robots

Sales of robots in Russia, 2011-2014
Source: FANUC

Although they diverge somewhat in their assessments, the underlying picture is clear – only around 500 industrial robots are introduced into Russian industry per year as of 2014, accounting for a dismal 0.25% of the global total. This is about thrice less even than Brazil’s 1,300, and two orders of magnitude lower than in China, where 57,000 were sold in the same year. It is likewise highly unlikely that Russia saw any improvements since 2014, considering that this was when it fell into a two year recession.

According to the NAURR report, the top five countries for scientific publications about robotics are the United States, followed by China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. While figures for Russia aren’t given, it is probably safe to say that it is about as irrelevant here as it is in AI.

Machine Tools

It would also be worthwhile to briefly survey the machine tool industry – a sector of special interest not only because of this its inherent technological sophistication, but also because of its strategic importance as the only part of the industrial economy that actually reproduces itself and makes everything else possible.

gardener-machine-tool-production

Source: Gardener Research – World Machine Tool Survey 2016

As you might expect, the lists of countries that dominate industrial robots and machine tools production – Japan, Korea, the Germanic lands, Italy, and increasingly, China – are highly similar. Russia is not an exception, accounting for just 0.6% of world machine tool production.

As with elite level science and robots, China has left Russia in the dust not only in absolute, but even per capita, terms.

world-share-machine-tool-production

Global share of machine tool production 1913-1995 (Brown – USA; Black – Germany; Green – Britain; Red – Russia; Purple – Japan; Yellow – China)
Source: genby

The Russian Federation also massively lags even the late USSR. As an autarkic military-industrial empire, the USSR understood the necessity of being able to make the machines that make all the other machines, bequeathing the Russian Federation with 2.8 million machine tools in 1992 upon its dissolution. Since then, that machine tool stock has inexorably depreciated, and as of 2013 constituted just 760,000 pieces, with the average age almost doubling from 12 years to 21 years.

Analysis

Since the end of the USSR, it has become clear that a chasm has opened up in in terms of scientific and technological output between Russia and the developed West.

This video juxtaposing the lumbering Robot Fyodor versus the agile Atlas built by Boston Dynamics seems like a good metaphor for what is perhaps the single biggest failure of Putinism in the past 18 years.

In comparison, any successes or failures in the Middle Eastern military adventures that pundits and commenters obsess over are basically irrelevant.

This is not to say that things are unremittingly bleak and getting worse.

The government has a strategic goal to get five of its universities into the global top 100 by 2020, to which end it has lavished significantly greater funding on its 21 most prospective universities. Consequently, academic salaries have greatly improved since 2013, at least in the elite institutions. They still don’t compare to the caviar feasts served up to Western professors, but at least they now constitute solid hunks of bread instead of the measly crumbs that were served up before.

There’s no very obvious reasons why Russia can’t succeed more at science. The average IQ relative to British norms is around 97, which might fall significantly short of Germanic and Anglo-Saxon (native!) averages, but isn’t really out of place relative to Mediterranean or East-Central European standards. Moreover, there are signs that Russia continues to enjoy a Flynn Effect, and besides, surely any minor disadvantage with respect to raw IQs is cancelled out by Russia’s traditionally very strong performance in international programming and mathematics contests.

Meanwhile, as regards industry, it is worth pointing out that Russia does consume around 2.7% of the world’s machine tools – it is, after all, the world’s eighth (or so) manufacturing power, not the gas station masquerading as a country of John McCain’s imagination. Infrastructure – roads, rail, airports – has genuinely gotten much better in the past decade, and with post-Soviet inflation finally tamed, Russia looks set for fairly vigorous growth.

But the problems holding Russia back are severe, and possibly intractable.

There remain strong financial and ultimately institutional barriers to unlocking Russia’s scientific potential. Putin and his clique seem to prefer lavishing resources on expensive status-signalling sporting events and white elephants as opposed to serious science and supercomputers. The former burnishes his prestige amongst simple people and provides endless opportunities to siphon away money to his Ozero chums – the latest lunatic project is to built a bridge for $10 billion to Sakhalin and its 500,000 people (a contract won by Arkady Rotenberg – who else?), which is about what the federal government spends on the Ministry of Education in a year – while the latter will only cause political trouble.

Ending corruption within academia would likewise seem a quixotic endeavor. While one can say much more on this topic, consider that PhD’s are no less a status symbol for the Russian elites than Mercedes cars and English boarding schools for their children. High-flyers found to have plagiarized their doctoral dissertations include no less than one in every nine members of the State Duma, and for that matter, Vladimir Putin himself. Waiting for these people to solve the problem of academic fraud is about as realistic as expecting them to solve corruption, or training foxes to guard hen houses. Nor is it possible to imagine a serious response to ethnic nepotism in academia in the land of Article 282, where you can be prosecuted just for arguing that the Caucasian republics should get fewer federal subsidies.

Finally, the absurdly low levels of robotization in industry raise serious questions about Russia’s political economy and its economic future. Why are Russian businesses loth to make serious moves towards automation in industry, even though Russia is, despite everything, a reasonably high IQ and well educated country? Is it because these require big capital investments that they are not willing to risk because of what they perceive as Russia’s environment of legal nihilism? It is correlated with Russian elites being the most apatride of any major civilization?

The importance of finding good answers and good solutions to these questions will only increase in the coming years and decades, as industry moves towards greater and greater automation. It seems likely that the countries that will be most successful at this will also be those who are succeeding at robotization today. Will Russia fall into a low-income trap where low wages preclude automation, and low automation preclude greater productivity and wages? At any rate, it doesn’t seem to be the case that anyone in Russia is seriously thinking about this, at least beyond empty electoral slogans – even as Putin runs for his fourth and hopefully final term, his promise to create 25 million hi-tech jobs during the 2012 Presidential elections has been conveniently forgotten.

Now this is not to say that the problem is with the Putin regime and that its removal will improve things. The pro-Western liberal elites are at least as rapacious as the kremlins, no less authoritarian in spirit, and far less patriotic to boot. Although this post was primarily about Russia, feel free to go back through the hyperlinks and study the case of the Ukraine, where liberal “lustrators” have repeatedly won; it is almost Sub-Saharan Africa so far as advanced science, native hi-tech (as opposed to offshored work), and any sort of capital-intensive manufacturing that wasn’t bequeathed to it by the USSR is concerned. Even the Visegrad and Baltic nations don’t have much to write home about. While most of them – especially, Czechia, Estonia, and Poland – do substantially better than Russia on most of these metrics, they still hugely lag the developed West and have been left behind in the dust by the Chinese juggernaut.

I don’t propose any great over-arching solution to these problems. “More money for RAN, less money for the Rotenbergs” might be a nice slogan, but as they say, the devil is in the details.

However, a solid start would be to look at the statistics and acknowledge that a very big problem exists, which, unresolved, will continue to degrade Russia’s economic, industrial, and eventually military competitiveness.

 
• Category: Economics, Science • Tags: Automation, Corruption, Russia, Science, Technology 
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  1. The bright side (despite all this), is that the country currently has massive amounts of wealth (from oil/gas and commodities exports), that can be used in the future to invest in education, science and development of future industries – and to rapidly improve situation.

    There is far more chance to ‘turn it around’, compared to other countries, due to this huge kind of resource endowment.

    But it is key this happens during the 2020s at the latest. Because by the 2030s, it could be highly probable that oil prices will be crashing during that decade.

    -

    I copy paste below what I yesterday posted on this topic:

    ‘I don’t think there was any opportunity in the 1990s, because oil prices went down to $13 a barrel. The oil prices mean the 1990s always going to be a disaster decade, even without the political events.

    The opportunity now is to put the enormous oil, gas and commodities profits of today into a diversification of the economy and development of future industries, before the 2030s. Some Arab oil countries are also doing this.

    Probably during the 2030s, oil demand and therefore prices will be crashing like the 1990s – but due to proliferation of electric vehicles, and electrification even of shipping industries, which is on horizon during the 2030s decade.

    So the 2020s will be the key period to invest the enormous wealth generated from natural resources into developing future industries inside the country, before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.’

    Read More
    • Replies: @Polish Perspective

    before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.
     
    Two things.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that "using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating". A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that's from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet - almost all of it coming from developing countries - as an aggregate going forward.


    On top of that, years of under investment in oil exploration will reduce capacity additions going forward, thereby pushing up the price. I would be skeptical of doomster scenarios for oil prices. But I do agree that oil will be less important going forward than it has been, while still being a net addition for several decades (although a diminishing one) for whoever has it and uses it intelligently.

    As always, the biggest and greatest resource a nation can have is human capital. Russia does very well there. But human capital is not enough, how you use it is equally important. Russia does less well there, but that also means there's plenty of room for improvements.

    As a sidenote, demographics in terms of quantity is overrated for economic growth.

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  2. It is worth noting that it lags China not only absolutely, but in per capita terms as well. In total, Russia produces as much elite level science as does Singapore, Belgium… and the University of Cambridge.

    It’s amazing that University of Cambridge contains seldom 6,645 staff (across all subjects – including non-scientific), and are yet producing this quantity of publications for science.

    Demonstrates how much you can achieve with even small numbers of people who have the adequate institution, financial investment and work-ethics.

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    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    "Publications for science" is not science.
    , @Rdm
    a very well designed, state of the art, unprecedented research finding, only brought forward by forward thinking British Universities publish this trash and make up the quantity.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25087144

    Another one of the most advanced science study done in one of the leading universities in the world from the UK

    https://www.cnet.com/news/how-smelling-farts-could-save-your-life/

    Those professors and authors will be gone in 10 or 20 years down the road. No one will question their publications.

    Study comes with money. If you're rich, you can do anything. That applies in STEM fields as well. Look at the deteriorating state of the British education system after WWII. Occasional giftout of the Nobel Prizes are just to make the country stay afloat in science.
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  3. AP says:

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton. I suspect that for whatever reason post-Soviet schools are really underestimated in that ranking.

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    • Replies: @Polish Perspective

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.
     
    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I've spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad. This is even leading to minor hysteria with regards to Chinese nationals, in Australia but also in the US. But beyond the Chinese students, you have increasingly Indian, Vietnamese as well as a whole host of other nationalities, from all over the world, congregating in these universities.

    One should also keep in mind that not every country is concentrating its research output into universities the way Anglo-Saxon nations tend to do. Germany's universities are quite mediocre if you blindly look at university rankings, but Germany has a significant amount of elite research centers like the Max Planck Institutes, the same is true in France, which are poorly captured in these university rankings.

    , @The Big Red Scary
    My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.

    The best students in Moscow are comparable to those at MIT or Princeton, but the curriculum in Moscow is rather outdated (extremely so at Mekh-mat, which is stuck in some 1950s neverland) and can involve lots of busy work (especially at the Higher School of Economics, which is obsessed with “education technology” for its own sake).

    Fortunately for those who really want to learn, the formal aspects of education are mostly irrelevant except insofar as they distract you from real work. More relevant is a socially healthy scientific community of scientists, which still does exist in Moscow, at least in mathematics, physics, and computer science.
    , @Moi
    I just wondering that, if we're Numero Uno, then how come our economy is headed for the toilet...?
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  4. 1. Artificial Intelligence is gay.

    2. China has an average IQ of 105 and such a massive population that you would expect them to be number 1 or 2 anyway. Here you can see the much more relevant list of scientific papers per capita in which Russia is actually ahead of China: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/20k5dk/top_40_countries_by_the_number_of_scientific/

    3. The US recruits elites scientists, researchers and engineers from all over the world so that gives it an unfair advantage and really Russia, which is not in position to recruit foreign talent, should only be compared to countries that are not the US or Singapore because those nations both have massive recruitment to drive up their scientific output.

    4. You touched on the problem in your article: Russian GDP per capita is 8,800 USD per person (PPP is stupid, I don’t use it). If Russia really wants to up it’s scientific output, it should focus on raising it’s GDP per capita.

    5. You mention in the article that Russia is primed for strong growth in the upcoming decade but I’m not so sure. And the reason I have my doubts is because of the example country of Chile: Chileans are almost as smart as Russians, are about as resource rich per capita and from an terms of economic policy have done absolutely everything right and yet the Chilean economy still blows.

    So yes, on paper we would expect strong growth in the Russian economy over the next decade, but couldn’t we say the same for Chile?

    6. It is no coincidence that Iran isn’t ranked in any of those charts (except, ironically, in the per capita list that I posted). Iranians have always been a very backwards and stupid people. They have been around for like 3000 years and in all that time have produced nothing except some hideous architecture, overpriced, flea carrying rugs and crappy, foul smelling food.

    Read More
    • Replies: @El Dato

    If Russia really wants to up it’s scientific output, it should focus on raising it’s GDP per capita.
     
    You can't "focus on" raising an aggregate value.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Both PISA and Becker find Chile at be around 91.
    , @myself
    PPP is stupid, I don’t use it

    __________________________________________________

    IMHO, PPP is valid, just different from Exchange Rate GDP.

    Exchange Rate GDP per capita is a better measure of INTERNATIONAL financial power - capacity to invest abroad, capacity to import from abroad etc. Exchange rates fluctuate, often by a lot.

    PPP GDP per capita is a better measure of real-world tangible income/output WITHIN a given space - capacity to invest domestically, capacity to produce and consume domestically etc.
    PPP GDP has no WILD fluctuations, and thus more reflective of "the truth on the ground". It closely tracks your domestic performance and your domestic home-country lifestyle.

    Let's put it more crudely (but accurately):

    Want to invest in say Africa or South America? Want to import that new Mercedes Benz? You want a large Exchange Rate GDP, meaning your money stash is large internationally - foreigners take your money seriously.

    Want to do something (say a start a lab, foster an industry, build infrastructure, or buy a house) of value in your own country? You want a large PPP GDP per capita, meaning you really do have the actual resources to get it done domestically.
    , @Clyde

    Iranians have always been a very backwards and stupid people. They have been around for like 3000 years and in all that time have produced nothing except some hideous architecture, overpriced, flea carrying rugs and crappy, foul smelling food.
     
    They have run empires so they are intelligent. If they can rid of Shia Islam their collective IQ will go up minimum 20 points. I have been in Persian restaurants and their food is good. As far as Islam and rugs go..... A Greek guy told me that on crossing the border into remote Turkey, he would see poor villages full of women and children patiently, slavishly weaving rugs. Doing this all day. Something you could never get a Greek woman to do.
    , @rochester
    so if Iranians are so stupid why are Israel and the united states so fearful of them developing a nuclear bomb? last time I checked dummies cant make nukes...
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  5. Probably during the 2030s, oil demand and therefore prices will be crashing like the 1990s – but due to proliferation of electric vehicles, and electrification even of shipping industries, which is on horizon during the 2030s decade.

    Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    There are no alternatives to fossil fuels. When the oil runs out, we die. End of discussion. Widespread electrification will always be a pipe dream.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Nuclear power. And to a much lesser extent, solar and wind power in locales where they are effective and sufficiently efficient.

    No need to die as the fossil fuels run out. But we'd better get prepared a lot more than we are.
    , @Sparkon

    There are no alternatives to fossil fuels. When the oil runs out, we die. End of discussion.
     
    Not when we have several hundred years worth of coal to burn.

    Let's not forget it was the demonization of coal coupled with panic about catastrophic manmade global warming (CAGW) driven by the Magic Molecule CO₂ that led to the widespread development and use of wind turbines and solar farms in the first place, neither of which can carry its own weight, and rely instead on subsidies to exist.

    As always, the key question is cui bono?
    , @AnotherDad

    There are no alternatives to fossil fuels. When the oil runs out, we die. End of discussion.
     
    Except for nuclear power, solar (rooftop) and bioethanol (sugar cane in tropics;, switchgrass, etc. in temperate zone). Yes, oil and natural gas are very very handy and energy dense, but we don't "die", we just have to pay a standard of living penalty for not having them.
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  6. @AP
    Something is very fishy about Russia's poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow - he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton. I suspect that for whatever reason post-Soviet schools are really underestimated in that ranking.

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.

    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I’ve spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad. This is even leading to minor hysteria with regards to Chinese nationals, in Australia but also in the US. But beyond the Chinese students, you have increasingly Indian, Vietnamese as well as a whole host of other nationalities, from all over the world, congregating in these universities.

    One should also keep in mind that not every country is concentrating its research output into universities the way Anglo-Saxon nations tend to do. Germany’s universities are quite mediocre if you blindly look at university rankings, but Germany has a significant amount of elite research centers like the Max Planck Institutes, the same is true in France, which are poorly captured in these university rankings.

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    • Replies: @Thomm

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad.
     
    Of course.

    A huge portion of the US blockchain scene is Russian.

    Of the US AI scene, 40% is Indian, and if you add Indians and Russians, these two groups are 60+%.

    White Americans are a surprisingly small share of 'American' research output now. And don't even talk about black Americans.
    , @AP

    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I’ve spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output
     
    Makes sense. My nephew is an undergrad, and is planning to pursue a doctorate at either MIT or, more likely, Princeton.

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.
    , @Philip Owen
    I totally endorse this. Russian teaching is excellent but research is extremely uneven, to be kind.
    , @Thirdeye

    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I’ve spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.
     
    Bingo. I was surprised some years ago - I seem to recall it was 2013 - when I looked a site based on comparative national statistics and Russia came out on top in education. The score was based on some composite of literacy, education attainment levels, and the rigor associated with those attainment levels. There may be a case that advanced degrees in Russia are devalued by status degrees, whatever process is used to attain them, but Russian education at the secondary and undergraduate levels is no slouch. Given that until recently China's educational system was still recovering from its decimation during the Cultural Revolution, it's not a huge stretch to imagine a similar explosion in technical education happening in Russia, with the requisite stability and foundation in general education in place.

    What Russia lacks in basic research productivity, they compensate for it to some degree with their emphasis on applied science and engineering. That's been demonstrated by their leaps in advanced weaponry and electronic/cyber warfare capabilities which have left the west embarrassed. Given Russia's historic priorities, it makes sense that a lot of their technical capabilities would remain behind a curtain until they're unveiled at a time of their choosing. The whole picture looks to me like a nation that perhaps doesn't take the purely theoretical end that seriously, but takes the applied end very seriously. The question is, at what point do the limitations on the theoretical end impinge upon the applied end?
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  7. I recollect that Russia tends to dominate coding contests and a casual search affirmed that:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/428610/in-the-olympics-of-algorithms-a-russian-keeps-winning-gold/

    I imagine that this should also translate into an advantage for algorithm development, which ought to support a number of other applications. I don’t believe that is a solved problem yet and it indicates that the talent is definitely there – what’s absent is just the money and other infrastructural support.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure, I briefly mentioned that in the article; which makes Russia's underperformance all the more inexcusable.
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  8. @Dmitry
    The bright side (despite all this), is that the country currently has massive amounts of wealth (from oil/gas and commodities exports), that can be used in the future to invest in education, science and development of future industries - and to rapidly improve situation.

    There is far more chance to 'turn it around', compared to other countries, due to this huge kind of resource endowment.

    But it is key this happens during the 2020s at the latest. Because by the 2030s, it could be highly probable that oil prices will be crashing during that decade.

    -

    I copy paste below what I yesterday posted on this topic:

    'I don’t think there was any opportunity in the 1990s, because oil prices went down to $13 a barrel. The oil prices mean the 1990s always going to be a disaster decade, even without the political events.

    The opportunity now is to put the enormous oil, gas and commodities profits of today into a diversification of the economy and development of future industries, before the 2030s. Some Arab oil countries are also doing this.

    Probably during the 2030s, oil demand and therefore prices will be crashing like the 1990s – but due to proliferation of electric vehicles, and electrification even of shipping industries, which is on horizon during the 2030s decade.

    So the 2020s will be the key period to invest the enormous wealth generated from natural resources into developing future industries inside the country, before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.'

    before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.

    Two things.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”. A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that’s from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet – almost all of it coming from developing countries – as an aggregate going forward.

    On top of that, years of under investment in oil exploration will reduce capacity additions going forward, thereby pushing up the price. I would be skeptical of doomster scenarios for oil prices. But I do agree that oil will be less important going forward than it has been, while still being a net addition for several decades (although a diminishing one) for whoever has it and uses it intelligently.

    As always, the biggest and greatest resource a nation can have is human capital. Russia does very well there. But human capital is not enough, how you use it is equally important. Russia does less well there, but that also means there’s plenty of room for improvements.

    As a sidenote, demographics in terms of quantity is overrated for economic growth.

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    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    "First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”."

    Yes. And as that great patriot, Muammar Gaddafi, said many years ago when suggesting that the West wean itself from its bloated oil consumption which caused it to meddle in other-parts-of-the-world's politics (paraphrased), "Oil is too valuable to burn".

    You can see why they had to murder the guy.
    , @Dmitry

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”. A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.
     
    Yes it's a witty quote from the executive.

    But not really true - plastics only account for 4% of oil demand.* And in the future it will be more and more possible to recycle plastics.

    Oil will always be necessary in the future. But like most commodities markets, the price fluctuates wildly up and down in response to supply and demand.

    A surplus in supply to demand of a few million barrels of oil a day, can completely crash demand, resulting in kind of low prices occurred during 1990s. In relation to electrification of transport I'll add a comment below.

    *

    http://www.bpf.co.uk/data/content/images/o/oil%20graph.jpg

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that’s from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet – almost all of it coming from developing countries – as an aggregate going forward.
     
    There doesn't have to be total changeover, or even majority changeover, to crash oil prices.

    Average driver uses up maybe 10 barrels of oil a year. So let's say every 36 cars, will displace 1 barrel of oil a day.

    So every 36 million electric cars on road, will displace 1 million barrels of oil per day.

    Last oil price crash in 2014-2016 (which was a small crash - not like the 1980s/1990s oil glut -, but still enough to send economy into recession), was caused by surplus production of 2 million barrels of oil per day, sparked originally by unexpected gains of shale oil industry.

    In order to have similar price crash effect through oil demand, will then require only replacement of 72 million current cars, by electric vehicles.

    In America alone, there are 250 million cars/trucks.

    -

    The other issue to remember is that in the 2030s, there is also possibility of electrification of shipping industry.

    With this in mind, there is very possibility that the 2030s, will be significant oil price crashes occurring, not just like in 2014-2016, but more on the scale of the 1990s.

    -

    This should give a strong urgency to efforts to channel current vast surplus wealth the country enjoys, into efforts for diversification. Otherwise, can see a repeat of what happened as a result (above the political events) of '1980s/1990s oil glut'.
    , @Philip Owen
    The transition will come much faster. Electric cars have far fewer moving parts. Service costs will plummet and lifetimes extend. The business model will change to leasing not purchase. The cost of motoring will fall dramatically.
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  9. @Greasy William
    1. Artificial Intelligence is gay.

    2. China has an average IQ of 105 and such a massive population that you would expect them to be number 1 or 2 anyway. Here you can see the much more relevant list of scientific papers per capita in which Russia is actually ahead of China: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/20k5dk/top_40_countries_by_the_number_of_scientific/

    3. The US recruits elites scientists, researchers and engineers from all over the world so that gives it an unfair advantage and really Russia, which is not in position to recruit foreign talent, should only be compared to countries that are not the US or Singapore because those nations both have massive recruitment to drive up their scientific output.

    4. You touched on the problem in your article: Russian GDP per capita is 8,800 USD per person (PPP is stupid, I don't use it). If Russia really wants to up it's scientific output, it should focus on raising it's GDP per capita.

    5. You mention in the article that Russia is primed for strong growth in the upcoming decade but I'm not so sure. And the reason I have my doubts is because of the example country of Chile: Chileans are almost as smart as Russians, are about as resource rich per capita and from an terms of economic policy have done absolutely everything right and yet the Chilean economy still blows.

    So yes, on paper we would expect strong growth in the Russian economy over the next decade, but couldn't we say the same for Chile?

    6. It is no coincidence that Iran isn't ranked in any of those charts (except, ironically, in the per capita list that I posted). Iranians have always been a very backwards and stupid people. They have been around for like 3000 years and in all that time have produced nothing except some hideous architecture, overpriced, flea carrying rugs and crappy, foul smelling food.

    If Russia really wants to up it’s scientific output, it should focus on raising it’s GDP per capita.

    You can’t “focus on” raising an aggregate value.

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  10. There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.

    Every nation that now is a scientific powerhouse went through this. For example, China started with making plastic toys and flimsy umbrellas that broke after one rainfall. Russia can’t do that but instead it can grow a lot of wheat and sell it to Egypt, or something. Whatever works. Selling oil and gas too, of course. (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)

    Once you have money, you can do anything. You can spend it on science; waste it on “AI startups;” you can buy robots, buy people who know how to make robots, buy publicity about your awesome army of robots… Anything you like.

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    • Agree: Greasy William
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I don't think that is the complete answer, but there's definitely truth in that - its the only explanation that one would have, for example, why Saudi Arabia is still holding on at #31 at the Nature index, between Ireland and Argentina.
    , @Anatoly Karlin

    (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)
     
    Correct.

    The problem, of course, is that despite being one of the world's three largest oil extractors, Russian oil companies depend on Western oil service providers.

    Which would seem to confirm the point.
    , @Dmitry

    There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.
     
    The Russian Federation is vastly wealthy right now, and generates enormous quantities of money each year from exports of oil and gas, as well as other commodities materials (e.g. aluminium).

    That's why the situation should be easy to turn around - and Russia is very lucky to have a second chance in this - , because science and education situation can be rapidly reversed by increase funding.

    Cost of Igor Sechin's yacht alone could fund reverse brain-drain of dozens of high-level professors from America.

    The issue is one of priorities, as Karlin writes well in post.

    And I believe and am optimistic in the 2020s, there will be such a reversal, as people start to realize that oil demand will fall in the 2030s, and there will be more urgency to develop other industries.
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  11. Good to see Karlin taking a more nuanced perspective of various metrics.

    Regarding Nature, the higher ratio for European countries for AC relative to FC suggests to me higher levels of international collaboration relative to a more insular country like Japan. This is one of the reasons why I argued before that high level Nature metrics actually understate the impact of elite Japanese science.

    Case in point. On a per capita basis Japan seems to publish as much as Italy or Spain in Nature. It’s exceeded by countries like Canada per capita wise. Japanese papers also don’t receive the same number of average citations across a range of different fields compared to papers in Western countries.

    Yet when it comes to elite world class scientists, Japan clearly excels compared to countries like Spain or Italy, as evidenced by its surge in Nobel laureates since 2000 and by the pool of potential future Nobel laureates. So as I stated before, while Nature data certainly is non-trivial, it probably needs some interpretation in order to account for country specific idiosyncrasies.

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    • Replies: @Singh
    Circle jerk academia is the new white supremacy?
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  12. In per capita terms, the rate of robotization per worker in Russia in Russia hovers between that of India and Iran

    Ethnic Convergence.

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  13. @inertial
    There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.

    Every nation that now is a scientific powerhouse went through this. For example, China started with making plastic toys and flimsy umbrellas that broke after one rainfall. Russia can't do that but instead it can grow a lot of wheat and sell it to Egypt, or something. Whatever works. Selling oil and gas too, of course. (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)

    Once you have money, you can do anything. You can spend it on science; waste it on "AI startups;" you can buy robots, buy people who know how to make robots, buy publicity about your awesome army of robots... Anything you like.

    I don’t think that is the complete answer, but there’s definitely truth in that – its the only explanation that one would have, for example, why Saudi Arabia is still holding on at #31 at the Nature index, between Ireland and Argentina.

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  14. There’s no very obvious reasons why Russia can’t succeed more at science. The average IQ relative to British norms is around 97, which might fall significantly short of Germanic and Anglo-Saxon (native!) averages, but isn’t really out of place relative to Mediterranean or East-Central European standards.

    I never found PISA data compelling as super accurate measures of national IQ as Karlin seems to believe. I’m skeptical that the conclusion that average Russian IQ is only 97 relative to an Anglo average of 100 is valid.

    There’s plenty of evidence suggesting that Russia actually has a fair amount of tail end talent. Coding competitions are one such data point. The other would be on the International Mathematics Olympiad, where I believe over the past 25 years or so, Russian performance has been exceeded only by that of the USA and China.

    So in contrast to the strong HBD position I took in my article on the math/verbal split, let me point out that yes, institutional factors surely can also play a critical role. Of course, as anyone even remotely acquainted with the Cultural Revolution can attest, this should hardly be a surprising fact.

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    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    So in contrast to the strong HBD position I took in my article on the math/verbal split, let me point out that yes, institutional factors surely can also play a critical role.

    In the case of Russia, so far as I can tell, it is not official institutions so much as community organizing that has led to success in scientific competitions for young people. In every neighborhood and small town around Moscow, people organize scientific and artistic “circles” (кружки) for keen children, and that’s where talent seems to be nurtured.
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  15. Anatoly,

    I labor under the impression that Russia has a very credible military-industrial complex vis-a-vis the United States. (Said other ways: Russia is not a Paper Tiger. Russia is a major military adversary which in some military spheres is more advanced than the US.)

    If my supposition is correct, how can that be the case in view of the presented weaknesses of Russia’s scientific, engineering and manufacturing base?

    One answer could be that Russia has put all its eggs in one basket. I don’t buy that since by the criteria you have presented, almost all the eggs are puny and lack nourishment.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    Just asking. Your thoughts/comments (or that of any UR correspondent) would be very much appreciated.

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    • Replies: @WHAT
    This one is actually easy to answer, as modern military technologies rely not so much on cutting-edge semiconductor production(for example) as on solid mathematic algorithms, where Russia is indeed traditionally strong as Anatoly points out. Physics of moving objects fast and exploding them with max energy output have been figured out long time ago.

    That being said, I`m skeptical on this AI mumbo-jumbo. Untold billions in funding, close to forty years of research now, and all they can show for it is a duh pattern matcher that in the end human still has to teach.


    ...oh, and materials science in Russia seems to have never missed a step post-USSR if recent rocketry developments are the benchmark to go by. Important as hell for the military stuff.
    , @reiner Tor

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?
     
    One problem is that US military programs like the F-35 are spread around in all or most of the 50 states (so that they can have a solid majority of senators) and in most congressional house districts (so that they have a similar majority in the House), which could essentially be thought of as "bribing the electorate." Probably a truly corrupt system where you need to bribe just a few or few dozens or even hundreds of decision-makers would be cheaper in that instance. And probably that's what we're seeing in the Russian MIC.

    Another point is that if there's a sense of danger, corruption levels might decrease. In Ukraine, the military was one of the most corrupt institutions until 2014, and I think this is the only institution which managed to get less corrupt since then. Probably the sense that the military is truly needed for something helped a lot. Similarly, I think the perceived threat levels for the Russian military are relatively higher than in the US. They know that they are up against adversaries who outspend them by an order of magnitude (the US, and increasingly China), so they cannot afford to steal too much of it.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I think there are a few things to consider here:

    1. The military industrial sector having been the overwhelming focus of decades of Soviet capital and human capital investments.

    Rare civilian example would be nuclear power, where Russia remains highly competitive and even innovative.

    2. Military technology not having been as dynamic as most other sectors after the Cold War, so less scope to cardinally fall behind (especially having started off from such a strong position).

    This might not hold after 2025 or so, when newer technologies in which Russia has a weak presence (e.g. AI) start playing an increasingly dominant role.

    Despite its corruption, the Russian MIC is nonetheless probably more efficient than American-style corporate cronyism. Certainly it gets much more bang for its (non-PPP adjusted) bucks due to lower labor costs, and not having to maintain a globe-spanning network of bases.
    , @Philip Owen
    Russian project promoters tend to declare victory at launch or at least prototype production rather completion. Sciencethink rather than engineerthink. Underpromising and overdelivering is not a common combination in Russia.
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  16. Obviously Russia is afflicted with almost terminal case of “Dutch decease”. You combine that with Putin’s ultra-liberal approach to free trade, and death of Russian manufacturing is all but inevitable. Only severe economic sanctions placed on Russia by the West can rectify this situation (need is the mother of invention, after all). We’ve seen first tentative results of such recovery, but it’s not even close to enough. Let’s hope the sanctions regime becomes permanent and even tightens. Only then Russia will really flourish.

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    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    If Russia suffers from Dutch disease, the case is nowhere near terminal.

    Russia's economy has run on exports of primary products for about 800 years and has managed to survive quite handily when attacked by both more and less advanced nations.
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  17. AK wrote :

    The US absolutely dominates high-quality research, producing about a third of the world’s total,

    True, but many of these are foreign-born people who migrated to the US. Chinese, Indian, and Russian.

    US blacks continue to be absent, and US whites are contributing less and less unless you count US Jews as whites.

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    • Replies: @Yan Shen
    Yup, that's a point I've made both in my article and elsewhere, although my focus was more on Chinese Americans. The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science. So for instance when people talk about America's role in the development of CRISPR-Cas9, they sometimes ignore the fact that one of the 3 names most associated with CRISPR is Feng Zhang, who along with Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuel Charpentier are the 3 individuals most likely to receive the Nobel prize for its development.

    Chinese and Indian Americans make up about 2.6% of the US population, but contribute significantly more than that to American STEM. At many elite tech companies in Silicon Valley for instance, anywhere from 30-50% of the workers in technical roles are Asian, and a good estimate is that that's probably half Chinese and half Indian.

    Open question for either Karlin or some other enterprising reader, what % of American Nature FC output is from either ethnic Chinese or Indian authors?
    , @RadicalCenter
    On your last point, most Jews in the USA are Ashkenazi, and Ashkenazim are typically about half white European or more, genetically.

    Ashkenazi Jews are typically EIGHTY percent Italian through their maternal line, with only the paternal line contributing overwhelmingly Near Eastern / Middle Eastern genes:

    https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2013/10/08/ashkenazi-jewish-women-descended-mostly-from-italian-converts-new-study-asserts/

    One minor note: the pool of mixed white/Asian people in the USA is small but probably growing faster than most other groups. That would presumably tend to be a group that more commonly inherits measurably above-average intelligence from both sides of the family.
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  18. @Polish Perspective

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.
     
    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I've spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad. This is even leading to minor hysteria with regards to Chinese nationals, in Australia but also in the US. But beyond the Chinese students, you have increasingly Indian, Vietnamese as well as a whole host of other nationalities, from all over the world, congregating in these universities.

    One should also keep in mind that not every country is concentrating its research output into universities the way Anglo-Saxon nations tend to do. Germany's universities are quite mediocre if you blindly look at university rankings, but Germany has a significant amount of elite research centers like the Max Planck Institutes, the same is true in France, which are poorly captured in these university rankings.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad.

    Of course.

    A huge portion of the US blockchain scene is Russian.

    Of the US AI scene, 40% is Indian, and if you add Indians and Russians, these two groups are 60+%.

    White Americans are a surprisingly small share of ‘American’ research output now. And don’t even talk about black Americans.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    The Indians are just the low level coders.
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  19. @Thomm
    AK wrote :


    The US absolutely dominates high-quality research, producing about a third of the world’s total,
     
    True, but many of these are foreign-born people who migrated to the US. Chinese, Indian, and Russian.

    US blacks continue to be absent, and US whites are contributing less and less unless you count US Jews as whites.

    Yup, that’s a point I’ve made both in my article and elsewhere, although my focus was more on Chinese Americans. The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science. So for instance when people talk about America’s role in the development of CRISPR-Cas9, they sometimes ignore the fact that one of the 3 names most associated with CRISPR is Feng Zhang, who along with Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuel Charpentier are the 3 individuals most likely to receive the Nobel prize for its development.

    Chinese and Indian Americans make up about 2.6% of the US population, but contribute significantly more than that to American STEM. At many elite tech companies in Silicon Valley for instance, anywhere from 30-50% of the workers in technical roles are Asian, and a good estimate is that that’s probably half Chinese and half Indian.

    Open question for either Karlin or some other enterprising reader, what % of American Nature FC output is from either ethnic Chinese or Indian authors?

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Is there yet a thread that you have participated in where the conversation doesn't somehow drift to the presumably superior abilities of the Han ethnicity(and Thomm, for his part, on Indians).

    Its quite annoying.
    , @ThreeCranes
    While I have nothing personally against the Chinese, America would be better off if the Chinese would return to their homeland, Jews to Israel, Mexicans to Mexico and blacks be put in their own private game preserves.

    Not only would our economy become more productive but our per capita standard of living would rise, our native genius would have room to express itself (since every Chinese student in our elite Universities displaces an equally qualified EuroAmerican), our social health indexes would improve and all you minorities would have no cause to gripe about how you are unappreciated and undervalued. Truly a win/win.
    , @ThreeCranes
    The records show that a team made up of near-the-best who pull together will outperform a team composed of prima donnas.

    E.g. the British industrial revolution was a joint effort involving inventors, investors, wealthy family sponsors, friends of scientific advancement, business owners and others. It was not merely the works of a few geniuses (though the lens of history all too often distorts by creating one or a few vanishing points in any picture of distant events).

    A crew of eight excellent rowers swinging together in synergistic harmony will beat eight superior oarsmen who haven't trained together. The presence of many minorities in America who disrupt our communal rhythm with their incessant bickering and whining destroys the magic that synergy could work. It sets us at each other's throats and makes it difficult to pass socially beneficial legislation such as universal health care.
    , @Chrisnonymous

    The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science.
     
    Yes, of course, Americans are largely absent from East Asia, while there are greater and greater numbers of East Asians in America. On top of that, there is zero-sum competition for many positions that afford the resources necessary to create scientific output. In other words, every paper published by an East Asian in America represents a possible unpublished paper by some other ethnic group.

    This is not to say that East Asians haven't fairly outcompeted Americans for those positions. However, outcompetition for spots in Ivy League, tenure track positions, corporate research positions, etc has significant other contributing factors. In

    Also, you need to recognize that all the scientific output of East Asians is scientific output created in European-American context. I'm not referring here to the fact that modern science has European roots but rather to the fact that the educational, regulatory, economic, cultural, etc context of modern science is not East Asian. Even in East Asia, it's not East Asian.

    East Asians do great working The Man's fields. If we did a different experiment where everyone stayed isolated, maybe the results would be different. If so, it would be consistent with your speculations about cognition, but not with your Chinese Supremacism.
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  20. I distinctly remember reading about two russian scientists being accused of attempting to mine them some crypto on a govt nuclear supercomputer. Was it ZH?

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  21. @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    I labor under the impression that Russia has a very credible military-industrial complex vis-a-vis the United States. (Said other ways: Russia is not a Paper Tiger. Russia is a major military adversary which in some military spheres is more advanced than the US.)

    If my supposition is correct, how can that be the case in view of the presented weaknesses of Russia's scientific, engineering and manufacturing base?

    One answer could be that Russia has put all its eggs in one basket. I don't buy that since by the criteria you have presented, almost all the eggs are puny and lack nourishment.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    Just asking. Your thoughts/comments (or that of any UR correspondent) would be very much appreciated.

    This one is actually easy to answer, as modern military technologies rely not so much on cutting-edge semiconductor production(for example) as on solid mathematic algorithms, where Russia is indeed traditionally strong as Anatoly points out. Physics of moving objects fast and exploding them with max energy output have been figured out long time ago.

    That being said, I`m skeptical on this AI mumbo-jumbo. Untold billions in funding, close to forty years of research now, and all they can show for it is a duh pattern matcher that in the end human still has to teach.

    …oh, and materials science in Russia seems to have never missed a step post-USSR if recent rocketry developments are the benchmark to go by. Important as hell for the military stuff.

    Read More
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  22. @AP
    Something is very fishy about Russia's poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow - he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton. I suspect that for whatever reason post-Soviet schools are really underestimated in that ranking.

    My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.

    The best students in Moscow are comparable to those at MIT or Princeton, but the curriculum in Moscow is rather outdated (extremely so at Mekh-mat, which is stuck in some 1950s neverland) and can involve lots of busy work (especially at the Higher School of Economics, which is obsessed with “education technology” for its own sake).

    Fortunately for those who really want to learn, the formal aspects of education are mostly irrelevant except insofar as they distract you from real work. More relevant is a socially healthy scientific community of scientists, which still does exist in Moscow, at least in mathematics, physics, and computer science.

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  23. Anatoly, a bit tangential, but you didn’t mention Yandex, or the Yandex Academy:

    https://academy.yandex.ru/.

    The latter is quite promising in terms of real education, so far as I can tell. Basically, you should know mathematics at the level of the first two years of the Mekh-mat course (perhaps for the signaling), and then you can follow a serious course of machine learning during which you work on real projects.

    More stuff like this is, I think, part of a solution to the problems that you describe.

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  24. @Yan Shen

    There’s no very obvious reasons why Russia can’t succeed more at science. The average IQ relative to British norms is around 97, which might fall significantly short of Germanic and Anglo-Saxon (native!) averages, but isn’t really out of place relative to Mediterranean or East-Central European standards.
     
    I never found PISA data compelling as super accurate measures of national IQ as Karlin seems to believe. I'm skeptical that the conclusion that average Russian IQ is only 97 relative to an Anglo average of 100 is valid.

    There's plenty of evidence suggesting that Russia actually has a fair amount of tail end talent. Coding competitions are one such data point. The other would be on the International Mathematics Olympiad, where I believe over the past 25 years or so, Russian performance has been exceeded only by that of the USA and China.

    So in contrast to the strong HBD position I took in my article on the math/verbal split, let me point out that yes, institutional factors surely can also play a critical role. Of course, as anyone even remotely acquainted with the Cultural Revolution can attest, this should hardly be a surprising fact.

    So in contrast to the strong HBD position I took in my article on the math/verbal split, let me point out that yes, institutional factors surely can also play a critical role.

    In the case of Russia, so far as I can tell, it is not official institutions so much as community organizing that has led to success in scientific competitions for young people. In every neighborhood and small town around Moscow, people organize scientific and artistic “circles” (кружки) for keen children, and that’s where talent seems to be nurtured.

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  25. The Putinreich invests just enough in mil/sec technology to keep running its oligarchy.

    Eventually, the legacy Soviet military R&D capacity will wither and die unless its embedded in a flourishing civilian (state and private) R&D eco-system.

    Russia will end up ‘that guy’ who runs around yelling about his nukes. It will still be a pain for the Atlantic bloc (because of the nukes) but in every other respect it will exist the world-historic stage if it can’t martial technological developments.

    Oh, and there’ll be loads of gooks and anti-racist policy.

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    • Replies: @Singh
    This is why they moving closer to Pakistan & Saker etc play up similarity to Islam।।

    I believe in Russia but will troll them as if they were Non Punjabi indians।।
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  26. @Lemurmaniac
    The Putinreich invests just enough in mil/sec technology to keep running its oligarchy.

    Eventually, the legacy Soviet military R&D capacity will wither and die unless its embedded in a flourishing civilian (state and private) R&D eco-system.

    Russia will end up 'that guy' who runs around yelling about his nukes. It will still be a pain for the Atlantic bloc (because of the nukes) but in every other respect it will exist the world-historic stage if it can't martial technological developments.

    Oh, and there'll be loads of gooks and anti-racist policy.

    This is why they moving closer to Pakistan & Saker etc play up similarity to Islam।।

    I believe in Russia but will troll them as if they were Non Punjabi indians।।

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  27. @Yan Shen
    Good to see Karlin taking a more nuanced perspective of various metrics.

    Regarding Nature, the higher ratio for European countries for AC relative to FC suggests to me higher levels of international collaboration relative to a more insular country like Japan. This is one of the reasons why I argued before that high level Nature metrics actually understate the impact of elite Japanese science.

    Case in point. On a per capita basis Japan seems to publish as much as Italy or Spain in Nature. It's exceeded by countries like Canada per capita wise. Japanese papers also don't receive the same number of average citations across a range of different fields compared to papers in Western countries.

    Yet when it comes to elite world class scientists, Japan clearly excels compared to countries like Spain or Italy, as evidenced by its surge in Nobel laureates since 2000 and by the pool of potential future Nobel laureates. So as I stated before, while Nature data certainly is non-trivial, it probably needs some interpretation in order to account for country specific idiosyncrasies.

    Circle jerk academia is the new white supremacy?

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  28. @Thomm

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad.
     
    Of course.

    A huge portion of the US blockchain scene is Russian.

    Of the US AI scene, 40% is Indian, and if you add Indians and Russians, these two groups are 60+%.

    White Americans are a surprisingly small share of 'American' research output now. And don't even talk about black Americans.

    The Indians are just the low level coders.

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    • Replies: @utu
    He can't help himself. Thomm is Indian wannabe supremacist here who hates white people though he will tell you that his anti white contempt is for the stupid ones only who he considers a separate race from the smart ones. His are hard to understand meanderings of post colonial mind in never ending search for compensation for past humiliations and indignities.

    I and the public know
    What all schoolchildren learn,
    Those to whom evil is done
    Do evil in return.

    Who can release them now,
    Who can reach the dead,
    Who can speak for the dumb?
     
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  29. @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    I labor under the impression that Russia has a very credible military-industrial complex vis-a-vis the United States. (Said other ways: Russia is not a Paper Tiger. Russia is a major military adversary which in some military spheres is more advanced than the US.)

    If my supposition is correct, how can that be the case in view of the presented weaknesses of Russia's scientific, engineering and manufacturing base?

    One answer could be that Russia has put all its eggs in one basket. I don't buy that since by the criteria you have presented, almost all the eggs are puny and lack nourishment.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    Just asking. Your thoughts/comments (or that of any UR correspondent) would be very much appreciated.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    One problem is that US military programs like the F-35 are spread around in all or most of the 50 states (so that they can have a solid majority of senators) and in most congressional house districts (so that they have a similar majority in the House), which could essentially be thought of as “bribing the electorate.” Probably a truly corrupt system where you need to bribe just a few or few dozens or even hundreds of decision-makers would be cheaper in that instance. And probably that’s what we’re seeing in the Russian MIC.

    Another point is that if there’s a sense of danger, corruption levels might decrease. In Ukraine, the military was one of the most corrupt institutions until 2014, and I think this is the only institution which managed to get less corrupt since then. Probably the sense that the military is truly needed for something helped a lot. Similarly, I think the perceived threat levels for the Russian military are relatively higher than in the US. They know that they are up against adversaries who outspend them by an order of magnitude (the US, and increasingly China), so they cannot afford to steal too much of it.

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  30. Putin made waves by proclaiming that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become “ruler of the world.”

    The bad news he neglected to mention is that it is unlikely that Russia will become “ruler of the world”, because:

    (Russia) accounts for 13 of Europe’s estimated 409 AI startups as of mid-2017…

    While the UK accounts for 121 which is more than Germany, France, Italy and Russia combined. The UK also has the best universities in the EU and London is the financial capital of Europe, if not the world. The departure of Britain (Brexit) will leave the European Union quite diminished. And even more Catholic by percentage: post-Brexit EU will be over half Catholic, ~quarter atheist and only about 8% Protestant. While the Anglosphere is majority Protestant. And Russia is Orthodox.

    All these charts confirm the fact that the world has become bipolar with the two poles being the US and China. They are in a league of their own.

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    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.
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  31. @Greasy William
    1. Artificial Intelligence is gay.

    2. China has an average IQ of 105 and such a massive population that you would expect them to be number 1 or 2 anyway. Here you can see the much more relevant list of scientific papers per capita in which Russia is actually ahead of China: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/20k5dk/top_40_countries_by_the_number_of_scientific/

    3. The US recruits elites scientists, researchers and engineers from all over the world so that gives it an unfair advantage and really Russia, which is not in position to recruit foreign talent, should only be compared to countries that are not the US or Singapore because those nations both have massive recruitment to drive up their scientific output.

    4. You touched on the problem in your article: Russian GDP per capita is 8,800 USD per person (PPP is stupid, I don't use it). If Russia really wants to up it's scientific output, it should focus on raising it's GDP per capita.

    5. You mention in the article that Russia is primed for strong growth in the upcoming decade but I'm not so sure. And the reason I have my doubts is because of the example country of Chile: Chileans are almost as smart as Russians, are about as resource rich per capita and from an terms of economic policy have done absolutely everything right and yet the Chilean economy still blows.

    So yes, on paper we would expect strong growth in the Russian economy over the next decade, but couldn't we say the same for Chile?

    6. It is no coincidence that Iran isn't ranked in any of those charts (except, ironically, in the per capita list that I posted). Iranians have always been a very backwards and stupid people. They have been around for like 3000 years and in all that time have produced nothing except some hideous architecture, overpriced, flea carrying rugs and crappy, foul smelling food.

    Both PISA and Becker find Chile at be around 91.

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  32. @Daniel Chieh
    I recollect that Russia tends to dominate coding contests and a casual search affirmed that:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/428610/in-the-olympics-of-algorithms-a-russian-keeps-winning-gold/

    I imagine that this should also translate into an advantage for algorithm development, which ought to support a number of other applications. I don't believe that is a solved problem yet and it indicates that the talent is definitely there - what's absent is just the money and other infrastructural support.

    Sure, I briefly mentioned that in the article; which makes Russia’s underperformance all the more inexcusable.

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  33. @inertial
    There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.

    Every nation that now is a scientific powerhouse went through this. For example, China started with making plastic toys and flimsy umbrellas that broke after one rainfall. Russia can't do that but instead it can grow a lot of wheat and sell it to Egypt, or something. Whatever works. Selling oil and gas too, of course. (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)

    Once you have money, you can do anything. You can spend it on science; waste it on "AI startups;" you can buy robots, buy people who know how to make robots, buy publicity about your awesome army of robots... Anything you like.

    (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)

    Correct.

    The problem, of course, is that despite being one of the world’s three largest oil extractors, Russian oil companies depend on Western oil service providers.

    Which would seem to confirm the point.

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  34. @Anonymous
    The Indians are just the low level coders.

    He can’t help himself. Thomm is Indian wannabe supremacist here who hates white people though he will tell you that his anti white contempt is for the stupid ones only who he considers a separate race from the smart ones. His are hard to understand meanderings of post colonial mind in never ending search for compensation for past humiliations and indignities.

    I and the public know
    What all schoolchildren learn,
    Those to whom evil is done
    Do evil in return.

    Who can release them now,
    Who can reach the dead,
    Who can speak for the dumb?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    A beautiful poem. Poetry is wonderful for grasping complex thought.

    "World history is a battle between two forms of love. Love of self -to the point of destroying the world. And love of others -to the point of renouncing oneself. This battle, which could always be seen, is in progress now too."
    , @HogHappenin
    Nailed it man!! The moment anyone posts anything about India or Indians (Asian), this guy 'Thomm' just pops out of thin air and starts yammering about India's supposed technical superiority. Not to mention his contempt for anything white. He is fully on board with the zionist plan of replacing WASPs with Indians as their favorite underlings in the US! The Chinese are too technical and a lot less verbal to cut it. But Indians especially of the "right" Hindoo caste, are way too much like them anyways and fit perfectly!

    Of late I've become quite amused at his antics!! Hehehe

    More 'powa' to you Thomm. May the 'zion' be with you!!! (and your kind) ;)

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  35. @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    I labor under the impression that Russia has a very credible military-industrial complex vis-a-vis the United States. (Said other ways: Russia is not a Paper Tiger. Russia is a major military adversary which in some military spheres is more advanced than the US.)

    If my supposition is correct, how can that be the case in view of the presented weaknesses of Russia's scientific, engineering and manufacturing base?

    One answer could be that Russia has put all its eggs in one basket. I don't buy that since by the criteria you have presented, almost all the eggs are puny and lack nourishment.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    Just asking. Your thoughts/comments (or that of any UR correspondent) would be very much appreciated.

    I think there are a few things to consider here:

    1. The military industrial sector having been the overwhelming focus of decades of Soviet capital and human capital investments.

    Rare civilian example would be nuclear power, where Russia remains highly competitive and even innovative.

    2. Military technology not having been as dynamic as most other sectors after the Cold War, so less scope to cardinally fall behind (especially having started off from such a strong position).

    This might not hold after 2025 or so, when newer technologies in which Russia has a weak presence (e.g. AI) start playing an increasingly dominant role.

    Despite its corruption, the Russian MIC is nonetheless probably more efficient than American-style corporate cronyism. Certainly it gets much more bang for its (non-PPP adjusted) bucks due to lower labor costs, and not having to maintain a globe-spanning network of bases.

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    • Replies: @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    I wish to thank you and Commentators @WHAT and @reiner Tor for their fact-filled responses to my request.

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  36. @Dmitry

    It is worth noting that it lags China not only absolutely, but in per capita terms as well. In total, Russia produces as much elite level science as does Singapore, Belgium… and the University of Cambridge.
     
    It's amazing that University of Cambridge contains seldom 6,645 staff (across all subjects - including non-scientific), and are yet producing this quantity of publications for science.

    Demonstrates how much you can achieve with even small numbers of people who have the adequate institution, financial investment and work-ethics.

    “Publications for science” is not science.

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  37. @Polish Perspective

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.
     
    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I've spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad. This is even leading to minor hysteria with regards to Chinese nationals, in Australia but also in the US. But beyond the Chinese students, you have increasingly Indian, Vietnamese as well as a whole host of other nationalities, from all over the world, congregating in these universities.

    One should also keep in mind that not every country is concentrating its research output into universities the way Anglo-Saxon nations tend to do. Germany's universities are quite mediocre if you blindly look at university rankings, but Germany has a significant amount of elite research centers like the Max Planck Institutes, the same is true in France, which are poorly captured in these university rankings.

    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I’ve spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output

    Makes sense. My nephew is an undergrad, and is planning to pursue a doctorate at either MIT or, more likely, Princeton.

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.

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    • Replies: @anonymous coward

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.
     
    It doesn't if you know their methodology. They rank based on the number of published English-language research papers.

    MGU is not a research institute, they don't publish papers and don't hire faculty that don't teach.
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  38. Anatoly,

    You repeatedly reference Russia being at a level of, let’s say, Switzerland in high-tech areas. One way of interpreting this is that Russia is like Switzerland with a large extraneous population just getting by in its massive “outback”.

    The United States is similar to this. The high-tech areas are highly concentrated in select locations (primarily on the coasts). Very few of them are in the so-called American “great flyover” that reminds me of the abandoned factories and decaying infrastructure of post-Soviet Eastern Europe.

    I once worked in state-level economic development. One of the tasks was to try to copy the success of the high-tech “triangles, corridors, and valleys” in the “flyover” state I worked for. One looks for formulas. However, it seems that each of the high-tech “triangles, corridors, and valleys” had its own unique history and conditions. There was no set formula. Things happened until each reached a critical mass in its specialty … and then things took off in a positive feedback system.

    Perhaps China succeeds by sheer mass, force of will, investment, and patience … as well as a willingness to steal high tech wherever they can find it. As in the days of the Soviet Union, this works well in a centrally planned, totalitarian society. It works less well in a market economy that limits the role of government.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Well, you could extend this indefinitely. For instance, I'm sure that a disproportionate amount of Swiss achievement is concentrated in Zurich and Geneva; ergo for Massachusetts and the Silicon Valley in the US; either of which would put Russia's "elite" region, Moscow, to shame.
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  39. Here is a list of the countries’ accomplishments from The Nature Index weighted by population size. I took the total from column 4 and divided by % population as given in Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population).

    Switzerland 9264
    Singapore 5459
    Denmark 3934
    Israel 3810
    U.K. 3534
    USA 3533
    Sweden“ 3477
    Germany 3296
    Netherlands 3292
    Australia 2553
    Canada 2524
    Austria 2377
    Belgium 2240
    Finland 2192
    France 2058
    Spain 1607
    Japan 1529
    S. Korea 1456
    Italy 1136
    Taiwan 1071
    Poland 400
    China 348
    Russia 195
    Brazil 90
    India 46

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    One more confirmation of Switzerland's ridiculous overperformance on most things.
    , @Polish Perspective
    It would be useful to further aggregate them into income bands (nominal, since most research equipment has to be imported from abroad unless you're a huge country). In other words, how are they performing at their relative income level.

    Just scanning the list, Japan in particular seems like a relative underperformer wheras the UK seems to perform quite well. Doing somewhat better than the US on a per capita basis despite significantly lower per capita GDP.
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  40. @Bliss

    Putin made waves by proclaiming that whoever becomes the leader in AI will become “ruler of the world.”
     
    The bad news he neglected to mention is that it is unlikely that Russia will become “ruler of the world”, because:

    (Russia) accounts for 13 of Europe’s estimated 409 AI startups as of mid-2017…
     
    While the UK accounts for 121 which is more than Germany, France, Italy and Russia combined. The UK also has the best universities in the EU and London is the financial capital of Europe, if not the world. The departure of Britain (Brexit) will leave the European Union quite diminished. And even more Catholic by percentage: post-Brexit EU will be over half Catholic, ~quarter atheist and only about 8% Protestant. While the Anglosphere is majority Protestant. And Russia is Orthodox.

    All these charts confirm the fact that the world has become bipolar with the two poles being the US and China. They are in a league of their own.

    Since it looks like there’s nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called “AI”:

    “AI” is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called “applied statistics”. Everything about “AI” was already known 40 years ago. What’s new today is that we now have GPU’s (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, “AI research” is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern “AI” “research” consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. “feature selection”.) It’s creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it’s just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. “Deep learning”, a.k.a “neural networks” is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930′s.

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    • Agree: inertial
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I believe that Mr. Karlin is quite familiar with the workings of machine learning, for what it is worth.

    But yes, its actually quite "dumb"(and have stated this a few times before). But it doesn't make it on a practical level, any less useful and impressive because it has all of the usual advantages of technology: scalability and perfect memory. The ability to learn to recognize handwriting only needs to happen once, and then that can scale to any number of bank ATMs. Same goes for the digital knowledge someday to "recognize" a human's head, how to "optimally operate a rifle," and how to optimally operate said weapon toward a human's head.

    General purpose AI isn't within the foreseeable future, but so as long as the problem domain can be reasonably narrow, you can probably make a machine for that. And that, I think, represents a lot of problems in the world currently being solved less than efficiently by biological wetware that requires external training and can be distracted by loud noises and boobs.
    , @Mompara
    Deep learning and logistic regression are most certainly not the same thing. You are a poseur.
    , @utu
    Reducing AI to regression analysis and then dismissing it is disingenuous on your part. Just as well one could say that whole computer programming is merely a manipulation of 0,1 sequences. Such extremely reductionist statement tells us nothing programming just as the fact that human brains is just a bunch of molecules tells us nothing what it is and what it does. Every program is a 0,1 sequence. However AI are programs that are self-adapting and evolving under changing inputs and only in principle they could be written down explicitly but for practical reasons it is impossible. It is impossible to know how Go playing program is working in its every detail. You may have a neural net that can recognize faces and you can reduce it to large matrix of values on all nods of the network but by looking at this matrix you know nothing how it works and what change in one nod value may cause. You are unable to predict how the matrix will change if the same network is also burdened to learn also to distinguish a male face form a female face and whether its ability to recognize faces will be comprised by adding additional attribute to its function.
    , @Bliss
    What is your point? Are you saying that AI is not the big deal most everyone in the know think it is?

    Deep learning”, a.k.a “neural networks” is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression
     
    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-Neural-Networks-and-Deep-Learning

    https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/43538/difference-between-logistic-regression-and-neural-networks

    , @Mike Lee
    This is true. The smartest person currently in A*G*I is this black guy:

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/human-brain-not-intelligence

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/extreme-intelligence-mental-illness-related-autism

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/summary-most-advanced-medical-research
    , @Rdm
    Giving the benefit of the doubt, you know what you’re talking about the AI here.

    However you’re taking a slippery slope here when you conclude deep learning or neural networks is just a conventional logistic regression.

    Of course, every algorithm is trying to predict something useful or what we’d expect from the data analysis.

    I’ll give you the previous 50 years rain forest data from Amazon region and ask you to come up with how the US would perform economically in the next 20 years, would your algorithm give me a better prediction or mumbo-jumbo snafu?

    If I change my question to “Would global warming be affected with the rain forest data we have here?” You can at least come up with some decent prediction with the data you have now. That’s the area we humans need to focus on from now on. That’s where we can still excel with our wisdom. Machine won’t know if the input data and the question in concern are merely related to each other. They just crunch the data.

    Coming back to your impression on ‘deep learning’, I’d ask you a single question.

    Look outside the window, look far away in the sky, if your eyes catch a glimpse of a flying thing(still questionable), I’d ask you

    Q. Why do you think it’s a flying bird? Could it also be a plane?
    Q. Why do you think it’s a plane? Could it also be a bird?

    Your brain is in fact minimizing the possibility of the flying thing in the sky to be anything off the grounds. You exclude the thing to be a pig, a cat, a dog. Those are basically “logistic regression” phenomenon happening in your brains.

    So to say the least deep learning is just a conventional logistic regression since the 1930s is like saying your brain is as good as logistic regression.

    Logistic regression is a part of the deep learning. But
    deep learning is not a part of the logistic regression.

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  41. @AP

    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I’ve spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output
     
    Makes sense. My nephew is an undergrad, and is planning to pursue a doctorate at either MIT or, more likely, Princeton.

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.

    It doesn’t if you know their methodology. They rank based on the number of published English-language research papers.

    MGU is not a research institute, they don’t publish papers and don’t hire faculty that don’t teach.

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    • Replies: @AP

    It doesn’t if you know their methodology. They rank based on the number of published English-language research papers.

    MGU is not a research institute, they don’t publish papers and don’t hire faculty that don’t teach.
     
    Okay, that makes sense, but in that case use of such a methodology to rank (implied) quality of education or of product (graduate) is strange.
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  42. Although this post was primarily about Russia, feel free to go back through the hyperlinks and study the case of the Ukraine, where liberal “lustrators” have repeatedly won; it might as well be Sub-Saharan Africa so far as advanced science, native hi-tech (as opposed to offshored work), and any sort of capital-intensive manufacturing that wasn’t bequeathed to it by the USSR is concerned.

    Unless you mean South Africa, then not really.

    University rankings:

    https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2018

    Ukraine ranks slightly ahead of Poland (I suspect both countries, like EE in general, are undervalued). Ukraine’s top university, in Kharkiv, is ranked 401-410. It’s number two university, in Kiev, (Taras Shevchenko National University) is tied with Poland’s number one (Warsaw) at 411-420. It’s number three (Kiev Polytechnic) beats Poland’s number three.

    In comparison, Russia’s St. Petersburg Polytechnic is also at 401-410, tied with Ukraine’s number one. It is Russia’s 11th.

    By your own charts, Ukraine has 2 AI hubs. Fewer than South Africa’s 4 but more than anywhere else in Africa, more than the Balkans outside Slovenia. Ukraine’s production of machines in 2014-2015 (crisis years, it has improved since then) was about the same as, and slightly lower than, that of Hungary, and higher than Romania. It was well above South Africa, even.

    Ukraine’s auto production is starting to pick up, with production doubling since last year. Increase is due to the Skoda plant in Uzhhorod (auto-making has seemingly died in Zaporozhye). There is plenty of IT R & D in Ukraine:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2017/09/07/why-building-rd-in-ukraine-is-a-great-idea/#2f8c9a7e7ea0

    Ukraine’s military research development, which had been stagnant during the Yanukovich years, has really picked up. It seems to be doing what Russia had been doing in the 2000s, dusting off and modernizing late Soviet-era projects.

    Here is an example of new development, funded by Saudis:

    http://defence-blog.com/news/ukraine-unveils-new-tactical-missile-system.html

    Ukraine has started work on the development of its own hypersonic missiles. I imagine if Poland provided funding…

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    1. Nature Index - 24 (equivalent to Estonia; but ok, a lot higher than SSA except S. Africa)

    2. Highly cited researchers, top500 supercomputers, sequencers - zero

    3. VC - non-existent in reports; probably a couple of million dollars

    4. Industrial robots - usually a dozen (!) shipments per year. (Russia: A still catastrophic 500). Approximately equal to Africa minus South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

    So okay, will admit that overall I overdid the Sub-Saharan Africa comparison. Still, the Ukraine is a scientific desert even relative to Russia, which in turn is a scientific desert relative to the West and now China.
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  43. @Polish Perspective

    before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.
     
    Two things.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that "using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating". A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that's from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet - almost all of it coming from developing countries - as an aggregate going forward.


    On top of that, years of under investment in oil exploration will reduce capacity additions going forward, thereby pushing up the price. I would be skeptical of doomster scenarios for oil prices. But I do agree that oil will be less important going forward than it has been, while still being a net addition for several decades (although a diminishing one) for whoever has it and uses it intelligently.

    As always, the biggest and greatest resource a nation can have is human capital. Russia does very well there. But human capital is not enough, how you use it is equally important. Russia does less well there, but that also means there's plenty of room for improvements.

    As a sidenote, demographics in terms of quantity is overrated for economic growth.

    “First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”.”

    Yes. And as that great patriot, Muammar Gaddafi, said many years ago when suggesting that the West wean itself from its bloated oil consumption which caused it to meddle in other-parts-of-the-world’s politics (paraphrased), “Oil is too valuable to burn”.

    You can see why they had to murder the guy.

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  44. @anonymous coward

    Still, it just seems bizarre that MGU is ranked lower than the University of Florida on the Shanghai ranking, for example.
     
    It doesn't if you know their methodology. They rank based on the number of published English-language research papers.

    MGU is not a research institute, they don't publish papers and don't hire faculty that don't teach.

    It doesn’t if you know their methodology. They rank based on the number of published English-language research papers.

    MGU is not a research institute, they don’t publish papers and don’t hire faculty that don’t teach.

    Okay, that makes sense, but in that case use of such a methodology to rank (implied) quality of education or of product (graduate) is strange.

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  45. @Anatoly

    “However, a solid start would be to look at the statistics and acknowledge that a very big problem exists, which, unresolved, will continue to degrade Russia’s economic, industrial, and eventually military competitiveness.”

    And all of us owe you a heartfelt “Hat’s off” for your noble effort in putting this information together. It takes balls to look oneself (metaphorically speaking) in the mirror but it is indeed the first step in remedying whatever it is that ails a person (or institution).

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Couldn't agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that "remedy".
    Can't expect that from the resident "Team Russia" for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it's not that hard to point at what's not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it's obvious.
    Diet, exercise...yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won't work for this one.

    That.....a feasible PLAN....is something what's missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.
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  46. A bit beside the point of this article, but if you add up the 12 EU countries in the first list, you get 12812 publications. So in this respect not that far behind the United States, I would say.

    (Though I also think counting publications is a very rough measure of prowess indeed.)

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  47. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @utu
    He can't help himself. Thomm is Indian wannabe supremacist here who hates white people though he will tell you that his anti white contempt is for the stupid ones only who he considers a separate race from the smart ones. His are hard to understand meanderings of post colonial mind in never ending search for compensation for past humiliations and indignities.

    I and the public know
    What all schoolchildren learn,
    Those to whom evil is done
    Do evil in return.

    Who can release them now,
    Who can reach the dead,
    Who can speak for the dumb?
     

    A beautiful poem. Poetry is wonderful for grasping complex thought.

    “World history is a battle between two forms of love. Love of self -to the point of destroying the world. And love of others -to the point of renouncing oneself. This battle, which could always be seen, is in progress now too.”

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  48. OT: In other, more recent news…

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    This is graph seems mainly responding to changes in the price of oil.
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  49. What does the Russian security apparat need Sinologists for? China is their SCO ally. When you adhere to the customary international legal principle of friendly relations, and not US-type paranoia, you don’t waste effort spying on your allies. And Russia can stick to its comparative advantage because in any possible war, China’s industrial base will be at their disposal. That isn’t the case for the USA, the only possible threat. You only need defense-industrial autarky if you’re an isolated outlaw state. And Russia is the world’s leading advocate for rule of law.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Although America's leading Russologists might disagree, speaking the language of the country you plan to interact with seems to help.
    , @myself
    in any possible war, China’s industrial base will be at their disposal

    _________________________________________________________

    Yes, but not in a straightforward sense. Not in a "China churning out colossal quantities of Russian designed weapons" sense, not unless the very Russian state were in danger of being annexed or dissolved by NATO.

    Instead, a more likely scenario is China supplying civilian goods and machinery to Russia in vast quantities, enabling Russia to put 100% of its still considerable economy into wartime production.

    Under full wartime-mobilization scenarios, this would effectively double (give or take) Russia's war-making capacity. Instead of devoting some 50% of the total GDP to war, Russia could devote very close to EVERYTHING.

    All accomplished without China sending a single bullet in aid - "purely civilian trade", if you will.
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  50. @Rat racing
    What does the Russian security apparat need Sinologists for? China is their SCO ally. When you adhere to the customary international legal principle of friendly relations, and not US-type paranoia, you don't waste effort spying on your allies. And Russia can stick to its comparative advantage because in any possible war, China's industrial base will be at their disposal. That isn't the case for the USA, the only possible threat. You only need defense-industrial autarky if you're an isolated outlaw state. And Russia is the world's leading advocate for rule of law.

    Although America’s leading Russologists might disagree, speaking the language of the country you plan to interact with seems to help.

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    • Agree: Dan Hayes
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  51. @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.

    I believe that Mr. Karlin is quite familiar with the workings of machine learning, for what it is worth.

    But yes, its actually quite “dumb”(and have stated this a few times before). But it doesn’t make it on a practical level, any less useful and impressive because it has all of the usual advantages of technology: scalability and perfect memory. The ability to learn to recognize handwriting only needs to happen once, and then that can scale to any number of bank ATMs. Same goes for the digital knowledge someday to “recognize” a human’s head, how to “optimally operate a rifle,” and how to optimally operate said weapon toward a human’s head.

    General purpose AI isn’t within the foreseeable future, but so as long as the problem domain can be reasonably narrow, you can probably make a machine for that. And that, I think, represents a lot of problems in the world currently being solved less than efficiently by biological wetware that requires external training and can be distracted by loud noises and boobs.

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    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    Science and technology are different things. So-called "AI research" is an impressive technological and engineering feat of putting statistics to everyday use, but it's not science.
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  52. Anatoly – you realize you’ll eventually leave Russia. It’s just not the kind of place you wish it to be.

    You won’t be able to single handedly make it into a clone of Anglo Saxon technology worship. Not all places prioritize technology. Some just care less.

    The logical place for you is China – what are you waiting for? They value technology even more than America, and they have great Indian restaurants.

    I’m guessing within ten years you’ll be blogging from China.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Ah, but it doesn't matter anymore. The Anglos have won the cultural victory, therefore their values are the only ones that matter in this Civilization simulation in our reality. That's why Kiev flipped civilizations - the Russian civilization just hasn't been spamming enough Monuments and Great Works to impress them anymore. Perhaps in a hundred more turns, Moscow will flip too.

    Asking out of curiousity - have you been in Russia?
    , @JJ
    Mainland China is a great place for Anatoly to do his work except that there is the great firewall. VPN would be helpful but it's just not convenient. Hong Kong would be an ideal alternative, and it probably has the best Indian food among Chinese cities.
    , @myself
    If he blogs from Hong Kong, he'll by travelling a lot, although a bit of that will be short hops on planes and high-speed/mag-lev trains.

    He'll need to visit many, many Chinese cities and provinces to get the science and technology pulse, places like Shenzhen (okay, that's right across the border from HK), Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shandong, Dalian, Tianjin, Xian, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Hangzhou.

    Even just confining himself to the 3 largest innovation hubs (Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing) still entails covering very long distances
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I do indeed hope to do a China tour once I'm more financially stable and get some projects out of the way.
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  53. @Yan Shen
    Yup, that's a point I've made both in my article and elsewhere, although my focus was more on Chinese Americans. The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science. So for instance when people talk about America's role in the development of CRISPR-Cas9, they sometimes ignore the fact that one of the 3 names most associated with CRISPR is Feng Zhang, who along with Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuel Charpentier are the 3 individuals most likely to receive the Nobel prize for its development.

    Chinese and Indian Americans make up about 2.6% of the US population, but contribute significantly more than that to American STEM. At many elite tech companies in Silicon Valley for instance, anywhere from 30-50% of the workers in technical roles are Asian, and a good estimate is that that's probably half Chinese and half Indian.

    Open question for either Karlin or some other enterprising reader, what % of American Nature FC output is from either ethnic Chinese or Indian authors?

    Is there yet a thread that you have participated in where the conversation doesn’t somehow drift to the presumably superior abilities of the Han ethnicity(and Thomm, for his part, on Indians).

    Its quite annoying.

    Read More
    • Agree: utu, Twinkie
    • Troll: Yan Shen
    • Replies: @Yan Shen
    You're free to ignore my comments instead of reading and responding to them.
    , @Talha
    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important - namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. - which sucks for Syria, but what're you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US - we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we'll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian - well, my money's not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.
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  54. @AaronB
    Anatoly - you realize you'll eventually leave Russia. It's just not the kind of place you wish it to be.

    You won't be able to single handedly make it into a clone of Anglo Saxon technology worship. Not all places prioritize technology. Some just care less.

    The logical place for you is China - what are you waiting for? They value technology even more than America, and they have great Indian restaurants.

    I'm guessing within ten years you'll be blogging from China.

    Ah, but it doesn’t matter anymore. The Anglos have won the cultural victory, therefore their values are the only ones that matter in this Civilization simulation in our reality. That’s why Kiev flipped civilizations – the Russian civilization just hasn’t been spamming enough Monuments and Great Works to impress them anymore. Perhaps in a hundred more turns, Moscow will flip too.

    Asking out of curiousity – have you been in Russia?

    Read More
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @AaronB
    lol, yep that pretty much sums it up doesn't it : )

    I've been to the Ukraine and much of Eastern Europe, but I have not had the honor yet of going to Russia. Would love to go. Moscow sounds like a fascinating and chaotic mega city.

    The more Anatoly laments Russian technological lag, the more intrigued I become.
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  55. @Daniel Chieh
    I believe that Mr. Karlin is quite familiar with the workings of machine learning, for what it is worth.

    But yes, its actually quite "dumb"(and have stated this a few times before). But it doesn't make it on a practical level, any less useful and impressive because it has all of the usual advantages of technology: scalability and perfect memory. The ability to learn to recognize handwriting only needs to happen once, and then that can scale to any number of bank ATMs. Same goes for the digital knowledge someday to "recognize" a human's head, how to "optimally operate a rifle," and how to optimally operate said weapon toward a human's head.

    General purpose AI isn't within the foreseeable future, but so as long as the problem domain can be reasonably narrow, you can probably make a machine for that. And that, I think, represents a lot of problems in the world currently being solved less than efficiently by biological wetware that requires external training and can be distracted by loud noises and boobs.

    Science and technology are different things. So-called “AI research” is an impressive technological and engineering feat of putting statistics to everyday use, but it’s not science.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    So when regression analysis from machine learning goes through innumerable genetic markers and finds one that is correlated to decreased performance on Stroop Test(but not IQ), but only if the child is firstborn, thus allowing researchers to investigate if said genetic marker triggers an obscure blood-antigen reaction to cause a negative impact on the executive function of the brain and presumably affects the prefrontal lobe in some fashion...

    Is this science or technology?

    A microscope is not only a tool, but insight into a world previously unseen, isn't it?
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  56. @anonymous coward
    Science and technology are different things. So-called "AI research" is an impressive technological and engineering feat of putting statistics to everyday use, but it's not science.

    So when regression analysis from machine learning goes through innumerable genetic markers and finds one that is correlated to decreased performance on Stroop Test(but not IQ), but only if the child is firstborn, thus allowing researchers to investigate if said genetic marker triggers an obscure blood-antigen reaction to cause a negative impact on the executive function of the brain and presumably affects the prefrontal lobe in some fashion…

    Is this science or technology?

    A microscope is not only a tool, but insight into a world previously unseen, isn’t it?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    It's shitty tech. The deepest problem that nobody ever thinks about is the knowledge representation system (science). They all have static/fragile designs that self-crippling in the number of associations that can be built up because it's just tech. I've never seen a neural-network capable of self-reflection and differentiation, among many other conceptual paradoxical forms humans have no problems thinking about.

    For example, if you knew the structural breakdown of the incoming input and have already processed it for the various layers emulating the visual system of the human, you'd already have the post processing structure setup that is required for the "functions" but you'd only need a matching algorithm just like the damn cortical columns that take in the various areas of the visual fields and the vectorized elements coming from the higher stage breakdowns... You end up with 800 million potential elements you can search for a match for, with the right data representation the most basic binary search function you can find your elements down any tree-branch and you'd end up with a few hundred required pattern matching elements you'd always be firing for... i.e. constantly validating the existing visual field for elements of change and identifying them but you'd never have to fire all 800 million unless you somehow shutdown and had to reboot the whole image -- and even then you'd really only have to the number of elements in the imagine... This is why I hate CS and AI people, they brute force everything when you can work from a post processing standpoint and at that point you only have rudimentary functions that can easily be parallelized in a GPU/APU even on commodity hardware. The only limitation is that you really have to understand the mesh of representation and functional form that allows you to do *knowledge* based processing without algorithmic complexity...

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  57. @Daniel Chieh
    Ah, but it doesn't matter anymore. The Anglos have won the cultural victory, therefore their values are the only ones that matter in this Civilization simulation in our reality. That's why Kiev flipped civilizations - the Russian civilization just hasn't been spamming enough Monuments and Great Works to impress them anymore. Perhaps in a hundred more turns, Moscow will flip too.

    Asking out of curiousity - have you been in Russia?

    lol, yep that pretty much sums it up doesn’t it : )

    I’ve been to the Ukraine and much of Eastern Europe, but I have not had the honor yet of going to Russia. Would love to go. Moscow sounds like a fascinating and chaotic mega city.

    The more Anatoly laments Russian technological lag, the more intrigued I become.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Well, Moscow would contain a great proportion of technologically interested Russians, such as Mr. Karlin and the most attitudes of others such as him; this is not a recent development, and I've heard(from an Ossetian linguist) that it can be toxic sometimes in that it essentially brain drains everywhere else in Russia.

    Its the smaller towns and countryside outside that for better or worse, remain most enthralled with loose definitions of punctuality, interpersonal forms of governance and various traditional expectations often involving a ready supply of alcohol.

    You could also probably define the previous in less flattering terms.
    , @Kimppis
    One thing to keep in mind is that even fully developed Southern European countries like Spain and Italy have similar problems (or rather, "Western" Europe and East Asia are positive outliers?), but they're still nice places to live in by global and historical standards. As Anatoly mentioned in the article, even most other Eastern European countries are not that different from Russia.

    ==========================

    Thanks for the article, a great summary. Some of those positive trends, albeit modest, were well... a positive surprise. I guess the New Cold War could turn out to be a positive thing for Russia in more ways than one.

    Not that I know anything about the subject, but Italy's venture capital funding seems to absurdly low... Like WTF.

    And that "Global Academic Salaries" comparison is just weird... Are those really in PPP? Because even the Chinese salaries are really low. And what is up with those Ethiopian, Nigerian, Indian, Brazilian and South African salaries?
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  58. @AaronB
    lol, yep that pretty much sums it up doesn't it : )

    I've been to the Ukraine and much of Eastern Europe, but I have not had the honor yet of going to Russia. Would love to go. Moscow sounds like a fascinating and chaotic mega city.

    The more Anatoly laments Russian technological lag, the more intrigued I become.

    Well, Moscow would contain a great proportion of technologically interested Russians, such as Mr. Karlin and the most attitudes of others such as him; this is not a recent development, and I’ve heard(from an Ossetian linguist) that it can be toxic sometimes in that it essentially brain drains everywhere else in Russia.

    Its the smaller towns and countryside outside that for better or worse, remain most enthralled with loose definitions of punctuality, interpersonal forms of governance and various traditional expectations often involving a ready supply of alcohol.

    You could also probably define the previous in less flattering terms.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    That's a good point, but somehow gigantic chaotic cities manage to swallow up these objectionable types of people and not only make them irrelevant, but somehow part of the fun. For instance New York City is my favorite city in America despite having the worst kinds of people from my point of view - the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.

    San Francisco and silicon valley, by contrast, are small, and sheer tedium - despite SF being stunning. The environment is small enough to be controlled and the bad atmosphere can't get swallowed up in a larger wilderness like chaos.

    Still, I'd love to experience the Russian countryside. I'm sure it's quirky and odd.
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  59. @Daniel Chieh
    Is there yet a thread that you have participated in where the conversation doesn't somehow drift to the presumably superior abilities of the Han ethnicity(and Thomm, for his part, on Indians).

    Its quite annoying.

    You’re free to ignore my comments instead of reading and responding to them.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Happily, I am also free to comment on how annoying they are.

    Just for that, I will play the Russian civilization in Civ and document how to use it to defeat a continent of East Asian civs. Even Gandhi. Especially Gandhi.
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  60. 2244019

    Yet you feel compelled to continue to read and comment on them, when our good friend Unz created a rather handy feature allowing you to ignore commenters entirely. ;) One might think that a rational person would seek to avoid annoyance instead of actively subjecting themselves to it.

    People who do nothing but complain are the worst, but given that you frequent uh WN blogs quite often, I suppose it’s not too surprising that the phenomenon rubbed off on you…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No, Yan, I do not frequent WN blogs. They are weak and sissy like your arms.

    I frequent atomophilic crypto-Teutonic warlord blogs aimed to maximize achievements in this reality simulation while opportunistically denigrating the inferior pig race for the superior cat race.

    Only when Mars is populated with glowing nazi furries will the Final Plan be complete.
    , @Rat racing
    Very true, but either country's language can be the lingua franca, since both are UN official languages. The increasingly close technical and diplomatic collaboration of Russia and China suggests that communication is not a real problem.
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  61. @Yan Shen
    You're free to ignore my comments instead of reading and responding to them.

    Happily, I am also free to comment on how annoying they are.

    Just for that, I will play the Russian civilization in Civ and document how to use it to defeat a continent of East Asian civs. Even Gandhi. Especially Gandhi.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Happily, I am also free to comment on how annoying they are.

    Just for that, I will play the Russian civilization in Civ and document how to use it to defeat a continent of East Asian civs. Even Gandhi. Especially Gandhi.

     

    Lol maybe he has some degree of bias :)

    But let's not scare away the venerable Yan Shen from our community. It's an honour that he has descended to post here.

    This is first time I saw him posting in the Karlin forum. Usually he is only on the Sailer forum, where his more intelligent views are rapidly drowned out by the Americans.
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  62. @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.

    Deep learning and logistic regression are most certainly not the same thing. You are a poseur.

    Read More
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  63. @AaronB
    lol, yep that pretty much sums it up doesn't it : )

    I've been to the Ukraine and much of Eastern Europe, but I have not had the honor yet of going to Russia. Would love to go. Moscow sounds like a fascinating and chaotic mega city.

    The more Anatoly laments Russian technological lag, the more intrigued I become.

    One thing to keep in mind is that even fully developed Southern European countries like Spain and Italy have similar problems (or rather, “Western” Europe and East Asia are positive outliers?), but they’re still nice places to live in by global and historical standards. As Anatoly mentioned in the article, even most other Eastern European countries are not that different from Russia.

    ==========================

    Thanks for the article, a great summary. Some of those positive trends, albeit modest, were well… a positive surprise. I guess the New Cold War could turn out to be a positive thing for Russia in more ways than one.

    Not that I know anything about the subject, but Italy’s venture capital funding seems to absurdly low… Like WTF.

    And that “Global Academic Salaries” comparison is just weird… Are those really in PPP? Because even the Chinese salaries are really low. And what is up with those Ethiopian, Nigerian, Indian, Brazilian and South African salaries?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    Italy and Spain are some of the greatest places to live for sure if you like to enjoy life, but a guy like Karlin needs to live in a place that 's very focused on technology.

    Italy and Spain would be ideal for someone like me, though.
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  64. @AaronB
    Anatoly - you realize you'll eventually leave Russia. It's just not the kind of place you wish it to be.

    You won't be able to single handedly make it into a clone of Anglo Saxon technology worship. Not all places prioritize technology. Some just care less.

    The logical place for you is China - what are you waiting for? They value technology even more than America, and they have great Indian restaurants.

    I'm guessing within ten years you'll be blogging from China.

    Mainland China is a great place for Anatoly to do his work except that there is the great firewall. VPN would be helpful but it’s just not convenient. Hong Kong would be an ideal alternative, and it probably has the best Indian food among Chinese cities.

    Read More
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  65. @Daniel Chieh
    Well, Moscow would contain a great proportion of technologically interested Russians, such as Mr. Karlin and the most attitudes of others such as him; this is not a recent development, and I've heard(from an Ossetian linguist) that it can be toxic sometimes in that it essentially brain drains everywhere else in Russia.

    Its the smaller towns and countryside outside that for better or worse, remain most enthralled with loose definitions of punctuality, interpersonal forms of governance and various traditional expectations often involving a ready supply of alcohol.

    You could also probably define the previous in less flattering terms.

    That’s a good point, but somehow gigantic chaotic cities manage to swallow up these objectionable types of people and not only make them irrelevant, but somehow part of the fun. For instance New York City is my favorite city in America despite having the worst kinds of people from my point of view – the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.

    San Francisco and silicon valley, by contrast, are small, and sheer tedium – despite SF being stunning. The environment is small enough to be controlled and the bad atmosphere can’t get swallowed up in a larger wilderness like chaos.

    Still, I’d love to experience the Russian countryside. I’m sure it’s quirky and odd.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha

    the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.
     
    I used to live in parts of LA and from what I can see about New York and LA - these cities are so complex, they can easily be considered more complex to run properly than a great many countries around the world.

    Peace.
    , @Philip Owen
    The roads are unbelievably bad.
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  66. @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.

    Reducing AI to regression analysis and then dismissing it is disingenuous on your part. Just as well one could say that whole computer programming is merely a manipulation of 0,1 sequences. Such extremely reductionist statement tells us nothing programming just as the fact that human brains is just a bunch of molecules tells us nothing what it is and what it does. Every program is a 0,1 sequence. However AI are programs that are self-adapting and evolving under changing inputs and only in principle they could be written down explicitly but for practical reasons it is impossible. It is impossible to know how Go playing program is working in its every detail. You may have a neural net that can recognize faces and you can reduce it to large matrix of values on all nods of the network but by looking at this matrix you know nothing how it works and what change in one nod value may cause. You are unable to predict how the matrix will change if the same network is also burdened to learn also to distinguish a male face form a female face and whether its ability to recognize faces will be comprised by adding additional attribute to its function.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous coward

    However AI are programs that are self-adapting and evolving under changing inputs...
     
    Three points:

    a) The programs aren't "self-adapting". The only practical self-adapting code is found in malware. So-called "AI" is code with self-adapting coefficients, which is exactly what regression analysis is -- adapting coefficients based on changing inputs.

    b) A neural network doesn't "learn" anything. A so-called neural network is mathematically exactly equivalent to a logistic regression, and cannot "learn" something any more than a logistic regression can.

    c) The fact that said coefficients aren't directly interpretable means nothing, please don't ascribe some sort of mystical value to this fact. Any change of basis can give you uninterpretable vectors. (E.g., a plain old SVD.)
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  67. @Anatoly Karlin
    I think there are a few things to consider here:

    1. The military industrial sector having been the overwhelming focus of decades of Soviet capital and human capital investments.

    Rare civilian example would be nuclear power, where Russia remains highly competitive and even innovative.

    2. Military technology not having been as dynamic as most other sectors after the Cold War, so less scope to cardinally fall behind (especially having started off from such a strong position).

    This might not hold after 2025 or so, when newer technologies in which Russia has a weak presence (e.g. AI) start playing an increasingly dominant role.

    Despite its corruption, the Russian MIC is nonetheless probably more efficient than American-style corporate cronyism. Certainly it gets much more bang for its (non-PPP adjusted) bucks due to lower labor costs, and not having to maintain a globe-spanning network of bases.

    Anatoly,

    I wish to thank you and Commentators and for their fact-filled responses to my request.

    Read More
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  68. @Yan Shen
    Yet you feel compelled to continue to read and comment on them, when our good friend Unz created a rather handy feature allowing you to ignore commenters entirely. ;) One might think that a rational person would seek to avoid annoyance instead of actively subjecting themselves to it.

    People who do nothing but complain are the worst, but given that you frequent uh WN blogs quite often, I suppose it's not too surprising that the phenomenon rubbed off on you...

    No, Yan, I do not frequent WN blogs. They are weak and sissy like your arms.

    I frequent atomophilic crypto-Teutonic warlord blogs aimed to maximize achievements in this reality simulation while opportunistically denigrating the inferior pig race for the superior cat race.

    Only when Mars is populated with glowing nazi furries will the Final Plan be complete.

    Read More
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  69. @inertial
    There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.

    Every nation that now is a scientific powerhouse went through this. For example, China started with making plastic toys and flimsy umbrellas that broke after one rainfall. Russia can't do that but instead it can grow a lot of wheat and sell it to Egypt, or something. Whatever works. Selling oil and gas too, of course. (BTW, extracting technology is no less high tech than you AI.)

    Once you have money, you can do anything. You can spend it on science; waste it on "AI startups;" you can buy robots, buy people who know how to make robots, buy publicity about your awesome army of robots... Anything you like.

    There is only one way Russia can solve this problem: gradually raise its wealth over the course of the next generation by any unglamorous means.

    The Russian Federation is vastly wealthy right now, and generates enormous quantities of money each year from exports of oil and gas, as well as other commodities materials (e.g. aluminium).

    That’s why the situation should be easy to turn around – and Russia is very lucky to have a second chance in this – , because science and education situation can be rapidly reversed by increase funding.

    Cost of Igor Sechin’s yacht alone could fund reverse brain-drain of dozens of high-level professors from America.

    The issue is one of priorities, as Karlin writes well in post.

    And I believe and am optimistic in the 2020s, there will be such a reversal, as people start to realize that oil demand will fall in the 2030s, and there will be more urgency to develop other industries.

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    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @inertial
    Russia is wealthy in resources, poor in money (a common situation in Russian story.) Money that comes from just selling resources is far for "enormous" for a nation of Russia's size.

    There should be enough wealth to fund both Sechin's yacht and the scientists. And Sechin's yacht has the priority claim. Unfortunately, that's how it works in the real world. Like in China, their newfound wealth first went to buying the Politburo billionaires'... mansions (are Chinese oligarchs into yachts?) Only when they had enough for that, they started pouring money into science.
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  70. @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.

    What is your point? Are you saying that AI is not the big deal most everyone in the know think it is?

    Deep learning”, a.k.a “neural networks” is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-Neural-Networks-and-Deep-Learning

    https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/43538/difference-between-logistic-regression-and-neural-networks

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    • Replies: @anonymous coward

    What is your point? Are you saying that AI is not the big deal most everyone in the know think it is?
     
    There's no such thing as "AI". "AI" is just the snakeoil salesman name for applied statistics.

    "Deep learning" is just the snakeoil name for "hierarchical neural network", and "neural network" is just the snakeoil name for "logistic regression".

    The whole field is snakes and oil all the way down. (Not surprising when there's so much easy money to be made here.)
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  71. @Yan Shen
    Yup, that's a point I've made both in my article and elsewhere, although my focus was more on Chinese Americans. The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science. So for instance when people talk about America's role in the development of CRISPR-Cas9, they sometimes ignore the fact that one of the 3 names most associated with CRISPR is Feng Zhang, who along with Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuel Charpentier are the 3 individuals most likely to receive the Nobel prize for its development.

    Chinese and Indian Americans make up about 2.6% of the US population, but contribute significantly more than that to American STEM. At many elite tech companies in Silicon Valley for instance, anywhere from 30-50% of the workers in technical roles are Asian, and a good estimate is that that's probably half Chinese and half Indian.

    Open question for either Karlin or some other enterprising reader, what % of American Nature FC output is from either ethnic Chinese or Indian authors?

    While I have nothing personally against the Chinese, America would be better off if the Chinese would return to their homeland, Jews to Israel, Mexicans to Mexico and blacks be put in their own private game preserves.

    Not only would our economy become more productive but our per capita standard of living would rise, our native genius would have room to express itself (since every Chinese student in our elite Universities displaces an equally qualified EuroAmerican), our social health indexes would improve and all you minorities would have no cause to gripe about how you are unappreciated and undervalued. Truly a win/win.

    Read More
    • LOL: Yan Shen
    • Replies: @Rdm
    Would it also be a win/win situation if EuroAmericans go back to their ancestral homeland and improve their native backyard Austria, Hungary, Greece, Romania, Belarus as far as you can march eastward?

    Let this new world filled up so-called parasitic minorities, Jews, Indians, Chinese all over the world fighting for who's who come first to the new world while EuroAmericans renegade back at Europe would be causing the next major World War III inflicted on Europe due to the Prince Harry marrying a mixed Black Meghan, ultimately resulting in 2nd Industrial Revolution, that spawns another wave of technological advancement in Europe, cultural leapfrog against any other cultures on this planet Earth.

    Why don't you give a hand while you're still alive?

    While all minorities here in the US will starve to death with their ever consistent bitching on who came on whom.
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  72. @Polish Perspective

    before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.
     
    Two things.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that "using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating". A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that's from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet - almost all of it coming from developing countries - as an aggregate going forward.


    On top of that, years of under investment in oil exploration will reduce capacity additions going forward, thereby pushing up the price. I would be skeptical of doomster scenarios for oil prices. But I do agree that oil will be less important going forward than it has been, while still being a net addition for several decades (although a diminishing one) for whoever has it and uses it intelligently.

    As always, the biggest and greatest resource a nation can have is human capital. Russia does very well there. But human capital is not enough, how you use it is equally important. Russia does less well there, but that also means there's plenty of room for improvements.

    As a sidenote, demographics in terms of quantity is overrated for economic growth.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”. A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Yes it’s a witty quote from the executive.

    But not really true – plastics only account for 4% of oil demand.* And in the future it will be more and more possible to recycle plastics.

    Oil will always be necessary in the future. But like most commodities markets, the price fluctuates wildly up and down in response to supply and demand.

    A surplus in supply to demand of a few million barrels of oil a day, can completely crash demand, resulting in kind of low prices occurred during 1990s. In relation to electrification of transport I’ll add a comment below.

    *

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that’s from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet – almost all of it coming from developing countries – as an aggregate going forward.

    There doesn’t have to be total changeover, or even majority changeover, to crash oil prices.

    Average driver uses up maybe 10 barrels of oil a year. So let’s say every 36 cars, will displace 1 barrel of oil a day.

    So every 36 million electric cars on road, will displace 1 million barrels of oil per day.

    Last oil price crash in 2014-2016 (which was a small crash – not like the 1980s/1990s oil glut -, but still enough to send economy into recession), was caused by surplus production of 2 million barrels of oil per day, sparked originally by unexpected gains of shale oil industry.

    In order to have similar price crash effect through oil demand, will then require only replacement of 72 million current cars, by electric vehicles.

    In America alone, there are 250 million cars/trucks.

    -

    The other issue to remember is that in the 2030s, there is also possibility of electrification of shipping industry.

    With this in mind, there is very possibility that the 2030s, will be significant oil price crashes occurring, not just like in 2014-2016, but more on the scale of the 1990s.

    -

    This should give a strong urgency to efforts to channel current vast surplus wealth the country enjoys, into efforts for diversification. Otherwise, can see a repeat of what happened as a result (above the political events) of ’1980s/1990s oil glut’.

    Read More
    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting way to think about this, thanks.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/img/ev-predicting-crash.jpg

    Using this method, Bloomberg thinks the crash could come as early as 2023.
    , @anon
    We have time for a full cycle. I expect another boom before the bust.
    , @Polish Perspective
    Sure, but what you seem to be missing is that supply will adjust with demand. Oil may be produced in fewer quantities but there will still be a huge legacy fleet which needs maintenance for decades to come, and oil-producing countries can just take higher prices for their produce for years to come.

    Additionally, as I already mentioned, there is already going to be a dent in oil supply coming online in the coming years due to years of underinvestment. Additionally, shale oil is likely to peak in the early 2020s and there is no immediate successor to the remarkable oil boom which came out of US shale oil anywhere in the world.

    Finally, there's more to oil than just plastics and transportation.

    None of this changes the main argument that EVs are here to stay and anyone trying to build a long-term strategy on oil is a fool. I've said as much numerous times myself. But once you actually do the numbers, you realise that oil will be central to geopolitics for decades to come. And it is equally foolish to assume that oil markets will not respond to EVs by lowering investment which will push up the prices in return as less supply is coming out as a consequence.

    The US EIA thinks shalle oil will peak within the next four years.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peak-US-Shale-Could-Be-4-Years-Away.html

    Remember, that to even stay in place you need to find a lot of oil to replace the current supply. Once/when shale goes out of the window, you're back to tar sands, offshore in the artic and deep-sea stuff. All of which is very expensive. Conventional oil is only at 70-75 mb/s and world demand is significantly higher than that. This is what the Peak Oil people understood early on. What they didn't see coming was shale oil. But that play is on its last legs. Once shale oil has peaked, it's not clear that the glut from EVs will become so damaging to oil producers.

    We could well see EVs playing the role of a oil market stabiliser, rather than party-crasher, for a number of years as new supply will not come to market fast enough and the only game in town then will be demand destruction, which EVs will help with. But that wouldn't necessarily mean an oil price crash since supply and demand would be balanced. Bloomberg and others have very rosy views on oil supply, which is a key assummption of their forecasts. I am optimistic about EV adoption. I'm less optimistic about finding lots of new oil supply to supplant shale oil and conventional oil.

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  73. @Daniel Chieh
    Happily, I am also free to comment on how annoying they are.

    Just for that, I will play the Russian civilization in Civ and document how to use it to defeat a continent of East Asian civs. Even Gandhi. Especially Gandhi.

    Happily, I am also free to comment on how annoying they are.

    Just for that, I will play the Russian civilization in Civ and document how to use it to defeat a continent of East Asian civs. Even Gandhi. Especially Gandhi.

    Lol maybe he has some degree of bias :)

    But let’s not scare away the venerable Yan Shen from our community. It’s an honour that he has descended to post here.

    This is first time I saw him posting in the Karlin forum. Usually he is only on the Sailer forum, where his more intelligent views are rapidly drowned out by the Americans.

    Read More
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  74. @Daniel Chieh
    Is there yet a thread that you have participated in where the conversation doesn't somehow drift to the presumably superior abilities of the Han ethnicity(and Thomm, for his part, on Indians).

    Its quite annoying.

    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important – namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. – which sucks for Syria, but what’re you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US – we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we’ll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian – well, my money’s not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important – namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

     

    And they even take the women soldiers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE_v6mjsHC0

    , @myself
    but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian – well, my money’s not on the Han
    ______________________________________________________

    Heck, I wouldn't even bet on an Icelander or Maori against a frickin' NIGERIAN.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

     

    Yes, they have been the world's go-to source of slaves for centuries not without reason.
    , @Twinkie

    you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.
     
    Well, digging trenches ain't fighting.

    Nigerians do well enough in combat sports compared to other Africans - 6 Olympic medals in boxing and 1 in Tae Kwon Do in its history (and 2 in weightlifting).

    Japan, though, has had 84 medals in Judo, 69 in wrestling, 5 in boxing, and 1 in Tae Kwon Do (and 6 in shooting and 5 in archery; and 14 in weightlifting).*

    And Nigeria has 50% greater population than Japan (at least today).

    *The Japanese aren't the exception among East Asians. South Korea, with only a fraction of the population and dirt poor until the 1970's, has had 39 medals in archery, 19 in Tae Kwon Do, 43 in Judo, 36 in wrestling, 16 in shooting, 11 in fencing, 20 in boxing, and 15 in weightlifting.
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  75. @Talha
    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important - namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. - which sucks for Syria, but what're you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US - we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we'll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian - well, my money's not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.

    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important – namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    And they even take the women soldiers.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Yup - that too. I mean think about what a gem Russia lost with Igor Sikorsky...
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  76. @AaronB
    That's a good point, but somehow gigantic chaotic cities manage to swallow up these objectionable types of people and not only make them irrelevant, but somehow part of the fun. For instance New York City is my favorite city in America despite having the worst kinds of people from my point of view - the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.

    San Francisco and silicon valley, by contrast, are small, and sheer tedium - despite SF being stunning. The environment is small enough to be controlled and the bad atmosphere can't get swallowed up in a larger wilderness like chaos.

    Still, I'd love to experience the Russian countryside. I'm sure it's quirky and odd.

    the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.

    I used to live in parts of LA and from what I can see about New York and LA – these cities are so complex, they can easily be considered more complex to run properly than a great many countries around the world.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Please explain.

    I've never been out on the west coast (my loss) but NYC seems quite well run on the whole, mostly due to competent (and somewhat ethnically and otherwise nepotist, but who really cares) police, fire, etc. etc. services. LA seems rather pleasantly laid out and one of the few cities designed for the automobile (as I recall it was cited as an example of a "reasonably dispersed" city in the early days of the Cold War, which it would be if its water supply was not so easy to wreck). What makes them difficult to run? The infrastructure required to build a city in the desert in LA? The ethnic diversity and general don't-care attitude of New Yorkers?

    Chaotic? Not really. Bombay, Colombo, Karachi-- these cities might reasonably be called chaotic.

    NYC intellectual culture is depressingly drab and conformist on the whole but probably more vibrant than any of the above, possibly because intellectuals in those other cities ape New Yorkers, rather unfortunately.
    , @AaronB
    Yeah, large mega cities are actually wildernesses that are beyond the comprehension or control of anyone. That's why they can be liberating and thrilling like the real wilderness.

    Although, I like the countryside as well.
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  77. @Dmitry

    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important – namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

     

    And they even take the women soldiers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE_v6mjsHC0

    Yup – that too. I mean think about what a gem Russia lost with Igor Sikorsky…

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Yup – that too. I mean think about what a gem Russia lost with Igor Sikorsky…

     

    Maybe we can balance a fair deal - for every Sikorsky, send them ten of The Sakers :)
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  78. - Russia doesn’t need to import of basic food for its’ own population.

    - Russia can fuel itself. No energy-import neccessary.

    - Russia’s social underclass is native to the country. No imported cultural/racial alien underclass, who are unable to compete with the natives and are a drag in all dimensions (education; crime; work-ethic). Even Russian Muslims are seeing the Motherland as their home. Russian security-apparatus is not hold back by stupid human-rights RoE. Uppity behaviour will be crackdown hard.

    - Russian military-manufacturing capacity is still very competitive. As long as Russia can maintain the ICBM/SLBM arsenal and their carrier-systems, there is nothing to worry about. The conventional sector is also good enough.

    Those 3 factors above means that Russia will stay an important player in the 21st century.

    The Confucian countries are already much stronger than the global media suggest. Even if you take a serious look at the laggard: the Vietnamese beat any Arab/Latino/SSAfrican country in socio-economic stats/dynamics. The Confucian sphere will become Number 1. No question about it.

    The Americans (USA & Cancucks) are already polarized/racialized/de-racialized. Without the Indian Brahmins & the Confucian migrants their civilian R&D-sector would already be uncompetitive.

    More and more Brahmins & Confucians are returning like turtles to India & Sinosphere. They take 30% hit in income-level or even startup their own company back home, rather that take a hit from Somali-American diversity-expert on non-consensual intercourse. It’s better get hit by Shanghai’s smog that by Jose’s/Tyrone’s proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer. Russia might soon see a similar trend.

    Western Europe won’t be able to keep up. If you visit any kindergarten/primary school you already see the breakdown of the middle-class. In many parts of Western Europe the schools breakdown to the following: 15% low-IQ Arabs/African; 2,5% smart Arab/African; 20% native Underclass; 10% E-European; 2,5% Confucian; 10% mixed; 20% native working-class; 20% native middle-class.

    But the European leaders/jounalists/mid-level bureaucrats don’t see it, because their children attend school with the smart/integrated fraction of migrant-children. Diversity works for them.

    So while the Chinese & Vietnamese are bringing golden-geese home and turn rice-farmers’ sons into engineers, the American & European working-class & middle-class is tormented (financially & psychological) by self-hating MSN-media, gender-BS and Arab-African enrichment. Can’t build R&D-centers in no-go-zones.

    Europe will also have to deal with an ever-increasing Youth-Bulge from SS-Africa. An ever-shrinking number of productive Natives & Migrants have to feed a growing restless underclass.

    Russia has alot to do to stay competitive and whatever the flaws of Putin & his minions are, they don’t import a foreign underclass.

    (Yes Yes I know, the migrant-workers from Central Asia. But is Russia burning 50 billion Euros per year to feed, police & shelter them like Germany? I don’t think so.)

    Russians survived the Civil War, Stalin’s madness, WW2 and the Soviet collapse. They will survive.

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.

    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.

    Putin needs to spend the hard-earned tax-money on that, otherwise the Russians are going to remove him from power.

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    • Replies: @Talha

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.
    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.
     
    LOOOOOOL! That was well-worth the price of admission!

    Peace.
    , @JJ

    It’s better get hit by Shanghai’s smog that by Jose’s/Tyrone’s proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer.
     
    Interestingly, despite the dreaded smog, Shanghai has an average life expectancy higher than most developed countries. I think the ranking is 4th in the world. Same goes to Beijing.

    http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/attachement/jpg/site1/20170329/00221917e13e1a453a7c1e.jpg

    , @Duke of Qin
    One correction I have to make, but there is a huge difference in Chinese and Indian students that many are not aware of and their particular remigration patterns. The Chinese scholars often do move back to China, the Indians don't. Westerners often assume Chinese and Indians are same same based off of very particularist immigrant patterns but as Anatoly himself has demonstrated, they are not. Just to give you an example but basically 6% of Beijing University students are in the USA around 4 years after graduation. The rates for an equivalent Indian school, IIT Mumbai are 67%. Even worse is that this discrepancy hides a time factor. Slightly higher percentages of BeiDa students end up in the US immediately after graduating but as the years pass more return. For Indian schools, it is the opposite as the more years it has been after matriculation the higher their chances of being in the US. That 6% brain drain shrinks with time and experience and they bring back best practices from the West. That 67% isn't a brain drain as much as it is a brain tsunami and they not only don't come back but those who didn't get out continue to actively seek to leave.
    , @TT


    - Russia doesn’t need to import of basic food..
    - Russia can fuel itself..
    - Russia’s social underclass is native to the country. No imported cultural/racial alien underclass,..
    - Russian military-manufacturing capacity is still very competitive.

     

    Agreed with your good observance. In short Russia is completely self sufficient, incl culture & religion.

    So Russia won't channel precious resources to R&D area to churn out useless research papers or make white elephants that it don't need/benefits, since it don't export anything other than resources & military gears(which it focus on hence Excellency).

    Why would one invest many A. I. robots to replace workers to make cheaper products for domestic, hence inflating higher social cost for jobless, a zero sum game.

    China is investing heavily in robotics, A. I. , supercomputer, R&D, etc. bcos it has the largest manufacturing base, domestic market & export economy to justify the huge investment returns potential. With more returns & economic of scale, it just snow ball. Same for US, EU, Germany, Jp, SK, etc are investing much in selective R&D, & area where they see potential profits.

    So the comparison here for Russia with the rest of export economies are not objective.

    As Russia move towards export economy, it will put money in selective area to compete, hence all the education & research fund, scientists & papers, new machines will just fall in place.

    But looking at how US Nato is brow beating Russia now, its likely Russia will remain in self sufficient model for long, and venture into selective areas where the West unable to disrupt or compete in price to strangle it, like grain export to ME, specific products for China market, aerospace,...military.

    Putin needs to spend the hard-earned tax-money on that, otherwise the Russians are going to remove him from power.
     
    Lol. Then they will start crying. After enjoying some Western lifestyle of high tech gadgets & academia accolades domestically, to find Russia get marginalized by US Nato internationally.

    But is Russia burning 50 billion Euros per year to feed, police & shelter them like Germany?
     
    Only Mummy Merkel will splash that huge money to bring in millions of Muslim refugees(mix with terrorists & criminals).

    The cost of having Germany social fabrics been torn apart, long term social cost of upkeeping these millions of refugees with different culture & religion, potential religion conflicts & high crimes rate, are astronomical, unbearable & potentially destabilizing to spiral Germany into abyss. But surprisingly majority Germans still voted for it in recent election.

    A well coordinated Weapon of Mass Migration WMM is been used by some interest groups to invade every developed countries, US, EU, Singapore, Oz, Nz, only China, Jp & Korea are still sanely free from it.
    , @Фрэнк в СПБ
    Russia most certainly has an imported underclass of foreigners. Living in Russia's second largest city this is as plain as day to me. Central Asians and various peoples from the Caucasus region are easily 15% of the working age population. On construction sites they are omnipresent. Immigration (legal and illegal) into Russia is huge, second only to the US I believe, with the majority being people from central asia. It should be noted, though that at present the majority of workers are single and hence the number of foreign children is significantly less than in the US or western Europe. Thirty or forty years ago the Turks in Germany were also primarily single though I believe.
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  79. this is un-PC, but here goes:

    One thing Russia could improve, and that shouldn’t cost a lot of money is this: improve the subjective quality of life.

    One thing most detrimental to which is crime.

    i.e. it must be possible, with say a professor’s salary – no matter how low in absolute terms – to live in a place where you don’t often run into gopniks and members of “small proud nations.”

    I.e., undo the integration of the 30′s (workers and peasants), 60′ (more workers and peasants) and the 90′s, get rid of projects etc.

    (Why is integration not a problem in America? First, because punishment is swift and severe (whereas in Russia, the menti will even try to talk you out of filing your complaint) and second, the brunt of the dysfunction is borne by working class people and where are they gonna go anyway?)

    Read More
    • Replies: @DreadIlk
    You would be surprised how bad US cops are at what you think they are good at. At least regionally. There are areas of US that look like paradise.

    Hence crime here is exploding too.
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  80. @Another German Reader
    - Russia doesn't need to import of basic food for its' own population.

    - Russia can fuel itself. No energy-import neccessary.

    - Russia's social underclass is native to the country. No imported cultural/racial alien underclass, who are unable to compete with the natives and are a drag in all dimensions (education; crime; work-ethic). Even Russian Muslims are seeing the Motherland as their home. Russian security-apparatus is not hold back by stupid human-rights RoE. Uppity behaviour will be crackdown hard.

    - Russian military-manufacturing capacity is still very competitive. As long as Russia can maintain the ICBM/SLBM arsenal and their carrier-systems, there is nothing to worry about. The conventional sector is also good enough.

    Those 3 factors above means that Russia will stay an important player in the 21st century.

    The Confucian countries are already much stronger than the global media suggest. Even if you take a serious look at the laggard: the Vietnamese beat any Arab/Latino/SSAfrican country in socio-economic stats/dynamics. The Confucian sphere will become Number 1. No question about it.

    The Americans (USA & Cancucks) are already polarized/racialized/de-racialized. Without the Indian Brahmins & the Confucian migrants their civilian R&D-sector would already be uncompetitive.

    More and more Brahmins & Confucians are returning like turtles to India & Sinosphere. They take 30% hit in income-level or even startup their own company back home, rather that take a hit from Somali-American diversity-expert on non-consensual intercourse. It's better get hit by Shanghai's smog that by Jose's/Tyrone's proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer. Russia might soon see a similar trend.

    Western Europe won't be able to keep up. If you visit any kindergarten/primary school you already see the breakdown of the middle-class. In many parts of Western Europe the schools breakdown to the following: 15% low-IQ Arabs/African; 2,5% smart Arab/African; 20% native Underclass; 10% E-European; 2,5% Confucian; 10% mixed; 20% native working-class; 20% native middle-class.

    But the European leaders/jounalists/mid-level bureaucrats don't see it, because their children attend school with the smart/integrated fraction of migrant-children. Diversity works for them.

    So while the Chinese & Vietnamese are bringing golden-geese home and turn rice-farmers' sons into engineers, the American & European working-class & middle-class is tormented (financially & psychological) by self-hating MSN-media, gender-BS and Arab-African enrichment. Can't build R&D-centers in no-go-zones.

    Europe will also have to deal with an ever-increasing Youth-Bulge from SS-Africa. An ever-shrinking number of productive Natives & Migrants have to feed a growing restless underclass.

    Russia has alot to do to stay competitive and whatever the flaws of Putin & his minions are, they don't import a foreign underclass.

    (Yes Yes I know, the migrant-workers from Central Asia. But is Russia burning 50 billion Euros per year to feed, police & shelter them like Germany? I don't think so.)

    Russians survived the Civil War, Stalin's madness, WW2 and the Soviet collapse. They will survive.

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.

    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.

    Putin needs to spend the hard-earned tax-money on that, otherwise the Russians are going to remove him from power.

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.
    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.

    LOOOOOOL! That was well-worth the price of admission!

    Peace.

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  81. @ThreeCranes
    @Anatoly

    "However, a solid start would be to look at the statistics and acknowledge that a very big problem exists, which, unresolved, will continue to degrade Russia’s economic, industrial, and eventually military competitiveness."

    And all of us owe you a heartfelt "Hat's off" for your noble effort in putting this information together. It takes balls to look oneself (metaphorically speaking) in the mirror but it is indeed the first step in remedying whatever it is that ails a person (or institution).

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that “remedy”.
    Can’t expect that from the resident “Team Russia” for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it’s not that hard to point at what’s not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it’s obvious.
    Diet, exercise…yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won’t work for this one.

    That…..a feasible PLAN….is something what’s missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that “remedy”.
    Can’t expect that from the resident “Team Russia” for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it’s not that hard to point at what’s not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it’s obvious.
    Diet, exercise…yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won’t work for this one.

    That…..a feasible PLAN….is something what’s missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.
     
    The overall is quite simple.

    We are talking about a situation, where currently is very fortunate to have enormous wealth, and annual income, in form of oil/gas and commodities exports.

    This enormous income is set to continue, but probably will be under threat during the 2030s.

    And we talking about a problem - e.g. brain-drain, where researchers are mainly responding to income disparities, that allow orders of magnitude higher incomes if you leave the country.

    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.

    The outcome is not pessimistic like for other countries that do not have this possibility. It's a situation which can - and probably will be - reversed as more people see urgency for the future.
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  82. @Talha
    Yup - that too. I mean think about what a gem Russia lost with Igor Sikorsky...

    Yup – that too. I mean think about what a gem Russia lost with Igor Sikorsky…

    Maybe we can balance a fair deal – for every Sikorsky, send them ten of The Sakers :)

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    • LOL: Talha
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  83. JJ says:
    @Another German Reader
    - Russia doesn't need to import of basic food for its' own population.

    - Russia can fuel itself. No energy-import neccessary.

    - Russia's social underclass is native to the country. No imported cultural/racial alien underclass, who are unable to compete with the natives and are a drag in all dimensions (education; crime; work-ethic). Even Russian Muslims are seeing the Motherland as their home. Russian security-apparatus is not hold back by stupid human-rights RoE. Uppity behaviour will be crackdown hard.

    - Russian military-manufacturing capacity is still very competitive. As long as Russia can maintain the ICBM/SLBM arsenal and their carrier-systems, there is nothing to worry about. The conventional sector is also good enough.

    Those 3 factors above means that Russia will stay an important player in the 21st century.

    The Confucian countries are already much stronger than the global media suggest. Even if you take a serious look at the laggard: the Vietnamese beat any Arab/Latino/SSAfrican country in socio-economic stats/dynamics. The Confucian sphere will become Number 1. No question about it.

    The Americans (USA & Cancucks) are already polarized/racialized/de-racialized. Without the Indian Brahmins & the Confucian migrants their civilian R&D-sector would already be uncompetitive.

    More and more Brahmins & Confucians are returning like turtles to India & Sinosphere. They take 30% hit in income-level or even startup their own company back home, rather that take a hit from Somali-American diversity-expert on non-consensual intercourse. It's better get hit by Shanghai's smog that by Jose's/Tyrone's proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer. Russia might soon see a similar trend.

    Western Europe won't be able to keep up. If you visit any kindergarten/primary school you already see the breakdown of the middle-class. In many parts of Western Europe the schools breakdown to the following: 15% low-IQ Arabs/African; 2,5% smart Arab/African; 20% native Underclass; 10% E-European; 2,5% Confucian; 10% mixed; 20% native working-class; 20% native middle-class.

    But the European leaders/jounalists/mid-level bureaucrats don't see it, because their children attend school with the smart/integrated fraction of migrant-children. Diversity works for them.

    So while the Chinese & Vietnamese are bringing golden-geese home and turn rice-farmers' sons into engineers, the American & European working-class & middle-class is tormented (financially & psychological) by self-hating MSN-media, gender-BS and Arab-African enrichment. Can't build R&D-centers in no-go-zones.

    Europe will also have to deal with an ever-increasing Youth-Bulge from SS-Africa. An ever-shrinking number of productive Natives & Migrants have to feed a growing restless underclass.

    Russia has alot to do to stay competitive and whatever the flaws of Putin & his minions are, they don't import a foreign underclass.

    (Yes Yes I know, the migrant-workers from Central Asia. But is Russia burning 50 billion Euros per year to feed, police & shelter them like Germany? I don't think so.)

    Russians survived the Civil War, Stalin's madness, WW2 and the Soviet collapse. They will survive.

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.

    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.

    Putin needs to spend the hard-earned tax-money on that, otherwise the Russians are going to remove him from power.

    It’s better get hit by Shanghai’s smog that by Jose’s/Tyrone’s proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer.

    Interestingly, despite the dreaded smog, Shanghai has an average life expectancy higher than most developed countries. I think the ranking is 4th in the world. Same goes to Beijing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Yan Shen
    I thought Beijing was the city with the smog, not Shanghai?
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  84. @Polish Perspective
    OT: In other, more recent news...


    https://i.imgur.com/u0gJYTL.png

    This is graph seems mainly responding to changes in the price of oil.

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  85. @JJ

    It’s better get hit by Shanghai’s smog that by Jose’s/Tyrone’s proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer.
     
    Interestingly, despite the dreaded smog, Shanghai has an average life expectancy higher than most developed countries. I think the ranking is 4th in the world. Same goes to Beijing.

    http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/attachement/jpg/site1/20170329/00221917e13e1a453a7c1e.jpg

    I thought Beijing was the city with the smog, not Shanghai?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Smog is everywhere in the urban areas(minus Shenzhen, really), although Beijing has it the worst. This is dropping across the country, however:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/upshot/china-pollution-environment-longer-lives.html


    Although most regions outpaced their targets, the most populated cities had some of the greatest declines. Beijing’s readings on concentrations of fine particulates declined by 35 percent; Hebei Province’s capital city, Shijiazhuang, cut its concentration by 39 percent; and Baoding, called China’s most polluted city in 2015, reduced its concentration by 38 percent
     
    Note that these also use American embassy and consulate monitors, so they're not just fudged numbers.
    , @JJ
    MSM call it smog, and I have little reason to doubt it given that Shanghai is sort of located in the central plain where smog from the north can be easily spread out.
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  86. @peterAUS
    Couldn't agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that "remedy".
    Can't expect that from the resident "Team Russia" for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it's not that hard to point at what's not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it's obvious.
    Diet, exercise...yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won't work for this one.

    That.....a feasible PLAN....is something what's missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that “remedy”.
    Can’t expect that from the resident “Team Russia” for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it’s not that hard to point at what’s not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it’s obvious.
    Diet, exercise…yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won’t work for this one.

    That…..a feasible PLAN….is something what’s missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.

    The overall is quite simple.

    We are talking about a situation, where currently is very fortunate to have enormous wealth, and annual income, in form of oil/gas and commodities exports.

    This enormous income is set to continue, but probably will be under threat during the 2030s.

    And we talking about a problem – e.g. brain-drain, where researchers are mainly responding to income disparities, that allow orders of magnitude higher incomes if you leave the country.

    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.

    The outcome is not pessimistic like for other countries that do not have this possibility. It’s a situation which can – and probably will be – reversed as more people see urgency for the future.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.
     
    Purchasing price of Sechin's yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.
    , @peterAUS

    The overall is quite simple.
    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

     

    You sure? It's...slightly...more complicated I think. Some would say even structural.

    Admit, you touched it here:

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.
     
    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn't it?
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  87. @Yan Shen
    I thought Beijing was the city with the smog, not Shanghai?

    Smog is everywhere in the urban areas(minus Shenzhen, really), although Beijing has it the worst. This is dropping across the country, however:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/upshot/china-pollution-environment-longer-lives.html

    Although most regions outpaced their targets, the most populated cities had some of the greatest declines. Beijing’s readings on concentrations of fine particulates declined by 35 percent; Hebei Province’s capital city, Shijiazhuang, cut its concentration by 39 percent; and Baoding, called China’s most polluted city in 2015, reduced its concentration by 38 percent

    Note that these also use American embassy and consulate monitors, so they’re not just fudged numbers.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    Clean air is only a question of costs.

    I view the state of China's tap water as currently quite embarrassing. Tier one cities should have good water, if they want to be able to brag about anything.
    , @Lars Porsena
    Why would Shenzhen have less smog than other Chinese cities, isn't that a huge industrial city? A huge amount of the products China ships globally seem to come from there.
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  88. @Dmitry

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that “remedy”.
    Can’t expect that from the resident “Team Russia” for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it’s not that hard to point at what’s not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it’s obvious.
    Diet, exercise…yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won’t work for this one.

    That…..a feasible PLAN….is something what’s missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.
     
    The overall is quite simple.

    We are talking about a situation, where currently is very fortunate to have enormous wealth, and annual income, in form of oil/gas and commodities exports.

    This enormous income is set to continue, but probably will be under threat during the 2030s.

    And we talking about a problem - e.g. brain-drain, where researchers are mainly responding to income disparities, that allow orders of magnitude higher incomes if you leave the country.

    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.

    The outcome is not pessimistic like for other countries that do not have this possibility. It's a situation which can - and probably will be - reversed as more people see urgency for the future.

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Yeah and the same with those rich Gulf Arabs and their yachts. But minus the yacht they would probably just spend it on Barbie-doll $1000 -a-night hookers anyway - so, whatever...

    By the way, can you Russians and Slavs keep your women out of the Gulf countries? They're making monkeys out of the men there. Just asking a favor, that's all...then maybe the rich fools might think about spending the money on other things.

    Peace.
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  89. @Yan Shen
    I thought Beijing was the city with the smog, not Shanghai?

    MSM call it smog, and I have little reason to doubt it given that Shanghai is sort of located in the central plain where smog from the north can be easily spread out.

    Read More
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  90. @Greasy William
    1. Artificial Intelligence is gay.

    2. China has an average IQ of 105 and such a massive population that you would expect them to be number 1 or 2 anyway. Here you can see the much more relevant list of scientific papers per capita in which Russia is actually ahead of China: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/20k5dk/top_40_countries_by_the_number_of_scientific/

    3. The US recruits elites scientists, researchers and engineers from all over the world so that gives it an unfair advantage and really Russia, which is not in position to recruit foreign talent, should only be compared to countries that are not the US or Singapore because those nations both have massive recruitment to drive up their scientific output.

    4. You touched on the problem in your article: Russian GDP per capita is 8,800 USD per person (PPP is stupid, I don't use it). If Russia really wants to up it's scientific output, it should focus on raising it's GDP per capita.

    5. You mention in the article that Russia is primed for strong growth in the upcoming decade but I'm not so sure. And the reason I have my doubts is because of the example country of Chile: Chileans are almost as smart as Russians, are about as resource rich per capita and from an terms of economic policy have done absolutely everything right and yet the Chilean economy still blows.

    So yes, on paper we would expect strong growth in the Russian economy over the next decade, but couldn't we say the same for Chile?

    6. It is no coincidence that Iran isn't ranked in any of those charts (except, ironically, in the per capita list that I posted). Iranians have always been a very backwards and stupid people. They have been around for like 3000 years and in all that time have produced nothing except some hideous architecture, overpriced, flea carrying rugs and crappy, foul smelling food.

    PPP is stupid, I don’t use it

    __________________________________________________

    IMHO, PPP is valid, just different from Exchange Rate GDP.

    Exchange Rate GDP per capita is a better measure of INTERNATIONAL financial power – capacity to invest abroad, capacity to import from abroad etc. Exchange rates fluctuate, often by a lot.

    PPP GDP per capita is a better measure of real-world tangible income/output WITHIN a given space – capacity to invest domestically, capacity to produce and consume domestically etc.
    PPP GDP has no WILD fluctuations, and thus more reflective of “the truth on the ground”. It closely tracks your domestic performance and your domestic home-country lifestyle.

    Let’s put it more crudely (but accurately):

    Want to invest in say Africa or South America? Want to import that new Mercedes Benz? You want a large Exchange Rate GDP, meaning your money stash is large internationally – foreigners take your money seriously.

    Want to do something (say a start a lab, foster an industry, build infrastructure, or buy a house) of value in your own country? You want a large PPP GDP per capita, meaning you really do have the actual resources to get it done domestically.

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    • Agree: Kimppis
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  91. @Dmitry

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.
     
    Purchasing price of Sechin's yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Yeah and the same with those rich Gulf Arabs and their yachts. But minus the yacht they would probably just spend it on Barbie-doll $1000 -a-night hookers anyway – so, whatever…

    By the way, can you Russians and Slavs keep your women out of the Gulf countries? They’re making monkeys out of the men there. Just asking a favor, that’s all…then maybe the rich fools might think about spending the money on other things.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    The native men were always monkeys to begin with, that's why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks. I have one hard and fast rule to judge if a people are capable of maintaining a modestly prosperous society. Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk. This isn't an evaluation of feminist indoctrination but rather self control, cooperative socialization, and future time orientation. If you can't help but grab at the candy in front of you, your society is going to be shit.
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  92. @Yan Shen
    Yet you feel compelled to continue to read and comment on them, when our good friend Unz created a rather handy feature allowing you to ignore commenters entirely. ;) One might think that a rational person would seek to avoid annoyance instead of actively subjecting themselves to it.

    People who do nothing but complain are the worst, but given that you frequent uh WN blogs quite often, I suppose it's not too surprising that the phenomenon rubbed off on you...

    Very true, but either country’s language can be the lingua franca, since both are UN official languages. The increasingly close technical and diplomatic collaboration of Russia and China suggests that communication is not a real problem.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dagandy
    Up to a point .
    If one neighbor does all the lifting ,eventually the lifting neighborhood gets feelings of disrespect for always lifting .
    Tho many of my Russo friends laugh about how little the federation's government knows about them in comparison to the un/NATO Orwellian govs.
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  93. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Talha

    the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.
     
    I used to live in parts of LA and from what I can see about New York and LA - these cities are so complex, they can easily be considered more complex to run properly than a great many countries around the world.

    Peace.

    Please explain.

    I’ve never been out on the west coast (my loss) but NYC seems quite well run on the whole, mostly due to competent (and somewhat ethnically and otherwise nepotist, but who really cares) police, fire, etc. etc. services. LA seems rather pleasantly laid out and one of the few cities designed for the automobile (as I recall it was cited as an example of a “reasonably dispersed” city in the early days of the Cold War, which it would be if its water supply was not so easy to wreck). What makes them difficult to run? The infrastructure required to build a city in the desert in LA? The ethnic diversity and general don’t-care attitude of New Yorkers?

    Chaotic? Not really. Bombay, Colombo, Karachi– these cities might reasonably be called chaotic.

    NYC intellectual culture is depressingly drab and conformist on the whole but probably more vibrant than any of the above, possibly because intellectuals in those other cities ape New Yorkers, rather unfortunately.

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    • Replies: @Talha

    What makes them difficult to run? The infrastructure required to build a city in the desert in LA? The ethnic diversity and general don’t-care attitude of New Yorkers?
     
    All of that.

    I didn't say they were actually run badly - I said they were more complex to run than certain countries.
    If they weren't run reasonably well, they would become urban nightmares that even the army would think twice about treading into.

    Just think about the logistics of what comes in and out of the Port of LA in San Pedro. They aren't the only ones - I mean Mexico City, Karachi and London are easily more complex than certain countries to run. Now I'm not talking Belgium or something, I'm talking more about something like Mongolia or certain countries in Africa or South America.

    Peace.
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  94. @Talha

    the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.
     
    I used to live in parts of LA and from what I can see about New York and LA - these cities are so complex, they can easily be considered more complex to run properly than a great many countries around the world.

    Peace.

    Yeah, large mega cities are actually wildernesses that are beyond the comprehension or control of anyone. That’s why they can be liberating and thrilling like the real wilderness.

    Although, I like the countryside as well.

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  95. I wonder how Saudi Arabia’s planned mega-city will change its numbers if it gets built. My guess is the results would be embarrassing. I don’t know what sort of inducements they plan to offer, but it’s going to be a tough sell, in any case.

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    • Replies: @myself
    NEOM, Saudi Arabia's planned city, could potentially be a good thing for the region, not just for the Saudis.

    It'll be a Special Economic Zone with a different set of rules and laws, and run by potentially the most well-educated forward thinkers in the Kingdom, and of course any foreign talent they pay to come on board.

    So, NO Sharia, more rights for women, better legal protections for workers etc. If the prince, bin Salman, has the support of the military, clergy loyal to the House of Saud (and there are some), and the educated segment of Saudi Arabia, AND he can keep out the interference of the Wahhabis, it should work.

    One thing I noticed though, was the location. On the Red Sea, on the north-west corner of Saudi Arabia, close by Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. On the junction basically between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean.

    Maybe most importantly, right smack dab on the planned route of the unfolding Maritime Silk Road.
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  96. @Anon
    Please explain.

    I've never been out on the west coast (my loss) but NYC seems quite well run on the whole, mostly due to competent (and somewhat ethnically and otherwise nepotist, but who really cares) police, fire, etc. etc. services. LA seems rather pleasantly laid out and one of the few cities designed for the automobile (as I recall it was cited as an example of a "reasonably dispersed" city in the early days of the Cold War, which it would be if its water supply was not so easy to wreck). What makes them difficult to run? The infrastructure required to build a city in the desert in LA? The ethnic diversity and general don't-care attitude of New Yorkers?

    Chaotic? Not really. Bombay, Colombo, Karachi-- these cities might reasonably be called chaotic.

    NYC intellectual culture is depressingly drab and conformist on the whole but probably more vibrant than any of the above, possibly because intellectuals in those other cities ape New Yorkers, rather unfortunately.

    What makes them difficult to run? The infrastructure required to build a city in the desert in LA? The ethnic diversity and general don’t-care attitude of New Yorkers?

    All of that.

    I didn’t say they were actually run badly – I said they were more complex to run than certain countries.
    If they weren’t run reasonably well, they would become urban nightmares that even the army would think twice about treading into.

    Just think about the logistics of what comes in and out of the Port of LA in San Pedro. They aren’t the only ones – I mean Mexico City, Karachi and London are easily more complex than certain countries to run. Now I’m not talking Belgium or something, I’m talking more about something like Mongolia or certain countries in Africa or South America.

    Peace.

    Read More
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  97. @Daniel Chieh
    Smog is everywhere in the urban areas(minus Shenzhen, really), although Beijing has it the worst. This is dropping across the country, however:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/12/upshot/china-pollution-environment-longer-lives.html


    Although most regions outpaced their targets, the most populated cities had some of the greatest declines. Beijing’s readings on concentrations of fine particulates declined by 35 percent; Hebei Province’s capital city, Shijiazhuang, cut its concentration by 39 percent; and Baoding, called China’s most polluted city in 2015, reduced its concentration by 38 percent
     
    Note that these also use American embassy and consulate monitors, so they're not just fudged numbers.

    Clean air is only a question of costs.

    I view the state of China’s tap water as currently quite embarrassing. Tier one cities should have good water, if they want to be able to brag about anything.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Everything is a question of costs.

    Air is a more significant danger than water - which is safe to use, just not to drink unboiled in large quantities. Air is pretty much unavoidable short of purifiers/masks, so its a more important win.

    Water pollution is more challenging since its hard to know what effluents are in there(if it was just sewage, that would have been easy, but there are industrial pollutants). There are some ideas and projects on how to tackle this, but I wouldn't expect to see anything huge until 2025 or so. There's nothing about it technically that makes it impossible to solve, the challenge is how to scale up the process so its not cost-prohibitive on a municipal level. In some places, the treated water is safe, but the piping to endpoint is still suspect(but that's not exclusively a China problem, all old pipes share this issue).

    The hardest form of pollution to deal with, ultimately, will be soil pollution.
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  98. @Dmitry

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Although, it would be good if Anatoly could post how to achieve that “remedy”.
    Can’t expect that from the resident “Team Russia” for obvious reasons.

    I mean, it’s not that hard to point at what’s not good.
    Suggesting a method, offering a feasible plan, is quite another matter. What really matters, actually.

    Analogy would be a fat guy. Yes, it’s obvious.
    Diet, exercise…yes, of course. But, how? And for that very individual; what works for another maybe won’t work for this one.

    That…..a feasible PLAN….is something what’s missing on all this Internet chatting, not just for this topic.
     
    The overall is quite simple.

    We are talking about a situation, where currently is very fortunate to have enormous wealth, and annual income, in form of oil/gas and commodities exports.

    This enormous income is set to continue, but probably will be under threat during the 2030s.

    And we talking about a problem - e.g. brain-drain, where researchers are mainly responding to income disparities, that allow orders of magnitude higher incomes if you leave the country.

    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

    If only slightly higher fraction of enormous income being generates from commodities exports, could be diverted into providing higher incomes for researchers, then brain-drain can be prevented, or even reversed.

    The outcome is not pessimistic like for other countries that do not have this possibility. It's a situation which can - and probably will be - reversed as more people see urgency for the future.

    The overall is quite simple.
    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

    You sure? It’s…slightly…more complicated I think. Some would say even structural.

    Admit, you touched it here:

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn’t it?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn’t it?
     
    The money is generated by oil/gas and commodities exports in Russia, is of unimaginably vast amounts.

    The world's largest exporter of gas. The world's second largest exporter of oil. The world's largest exporter of aluminium. Etc.

    There's enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings - and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It's just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US - and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one's still in country from leaving.
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  99. @Kimppis
    One thing to keep in mind is that even fully developed Southern European countries like Spain and Italy have similar problems (or rather, "Western" Europe and East Asia are positive outliers?), but they're still nice places to live in by global and historical standards. As Anatoly mentioned in the article, even most other Eastern European countries are not that different from Russia.

    ==========================

    Thanks for the article, a great summary. Some of those positive trends, albeit modest, were well... a positive surprise. I guess the New Cold War could turn out to be a positive thing for Russia in more ways than one.

    Not that I know anything about the subject, but Italy's venture capital funding seems to absurdly low... Like WTF.

    And that "Global Academic Salaries" comparison is just weird... Are those really in PPP? Because even the Chinese salaries are really low. And what is up with those Ethiopian, Nigerian, Indian, Brazilian and South African salaries?

    Italy and Spain are some of the greatest places to live for sure if you like to enjoy life, but a guy like Karlin needs to live in a place that ‘s very focused on technology.

    Italy and Spain would be ideal for someone like me, though.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Italy and Spain are some of the greatest places to live for sure if you like to enjoy life, but a guy like Karlin needs to live in a place that ‘s very focused on technology.
     
    Erm, why?

    It makes zero difference to me if I live within walking distance of Googleplex or on a remote beach thousands of miles away.

    That does however make a difference to national success, which is what I am interested in and presumably what many of my readers are interested in as well.
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  100. @songbird
    Clean air is only a question of costs.

    I view the state of China's tap water as currently quite embarrassing. Tier one cities should have good water, if they want to be able to brag about anything.

    Everything is a question of costs.

    Air is a more significant danger than water – which is safe to use, just not to drink unboiled in large quantities. Air is pretty much unavoidable short of purifiers/masks, so its a more important win.

    Water pollution is more challenging since its hard to know what effluents are in there(if it was just sewage, that would have been easy, but there are industrial pollutants). There are some ideas and projects on how to tackle this, but I wouldn’t expect to see anything huge until 2025 or so. There’s nothing about it technically that makes it impossible to solve, the challenge is how to scale up the process so its not cost-prohibitive on a municipal level. In some places, the treated water is safe, but the piping to endpoint is still suspect(but that’s not exclusively a China problem, all old pipes share this issue).

    The hardest form of pollution to deal with, ultimately, will be soil pollution.

    Read More
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  101. @Yan Shen
    Yup, that's a point I've made both in my article and elsewhere, although my focus was more on Chinese Americans. The entire debate about America versus China or East Asia misses the obvious fact that while Americans are largely absent from East Asian science, East Asians play a substantial role in the output of American science. So for instance when people talk about America's role in the development of CRISPR-Cas9, they sometimes ignore the fact that one of the 3 names most associated with CRISPR is Feng Zhang, who along with Jennifer Doudna and Emmanuel Charpentier are the 3 individuals most likely to receive the Nobel prize for its development.

    Chinese and Indian Americans make up about 2.6% of the US population, but contribute significantly more than that to American STEM. At many elite tech companies in Silicon Valley for instance, anywhere from 30-50% of the workers in technical roles are Asian, and a good estimate is that that's probably half Chinese and half Indian.

    Open question for either Karlin or some other enterprising reader, what % of American Nature FC output is from either ethnic Chinese or Indian authors?

    The records show that a team made up of near-the-best who pull together will outperform a team composed of prima donnas.

    E.g. the British industrial revolution was a joint effort involving inventors, investors, wealthy family sponsors, friends of scientific advancement, business owners and others. It was not merely the works of a few geniuses (though the lens of history all too often distorts by creating one or a few vanishing points in any picture of distant events).

    A crew of eight excellent rowers swinging together in synergistic harmony will beat eight superior oarsmen who haven’t trained together. The presence of many minorities in America who disrupt our communal rhythm with their incessant bickering and whining destroys the magic that synergy could work. It sets us at each other’s throats and makes it difficult to pass socially beneficial legislation such as universal health care.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    "The records show that a team made up of near-the-best who pull together will outperform a team composed of prima donnas."

    More bullshit.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616303282

    "The experiments instead showed that higher individual IQ enhances group performance such that individual IQ determined 100% of latent group-IQ. "
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  102. I totally endorse what you’ve written. My first encounters with Russia were as an innovation consultant. The Russian Academy of Sciences asked me to look over 120 ideas that they thought were their best prospects for commercialisation. One was worth the effort, Keronite, a technique for hardening metal for which I found a home n F1 engine cylinders. On the whole, the average Russian PhD seemed to operate at the level of a diploma student when pursuing an independent project. To be fair, I found better work in some University departments, for example, in tissue optics, a field invented in Russia but it was down to “manual control” by individual rofessors inspiring their researchers. The confused nature of contracts between University staff and researchers left patent ownership uncertain so good ideas were often unexploitable. The best work was in defence orientated research institutes. I saw some current research at the demonstrator level, for example the world’s first FED colour display but no capability of getting beyond the lab bench. It would have been generous to describe the general condition of Russian engineering in the mid 1990′s as coming from the 1970′s. The same or worse applied to factories. This has changed. Darwinian principles have removed the worst performers and surviving factories borrowed heavily from 2004 to 2008 to re-equip especially in food processing and FMCG where investment was the only way to survive against foreign competition. But for too much of Russian industry there was too little competition as it sheltered behind local regulatory standards. I can believe in Russian rockets. I find it very difficult to believe in Russian lasers. Yes they had a big science base but almost no application base in the USSR. More I cannot divulge.

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  103. @Rat racing
    What does the Russian security apparat need Sinologists for? China is their SCO ally. When you adhere to the customary international legal principle of friendly relations, and not US-type paranoia, you don't waste effort spying on your allies. And Russia can stick to its comparative advantage because in any possible war, China's industrial base will be at their disposal. That isn't the case for the USA, the only possible threat. You only need defense-industrial autarky if you're an isolated outlaw state. And Russia is the world's leading advocate for rule of law.

    in any possible war, China’s industrial base will be at their disposal

    _________________________________________________________

    Yes, but not in a straightforward sense. Not in a “China churning out colossal quantities of Russian designed weapons” sense, not unless the very Russian state were in danger of being annexed or dissolved by NATO.

    Instead, a more likely scenario is China supplying civilian goods and machinery to Russia in vast quantities, enabling Russia to put 100% of its still considerable economy into wartime production.

    Under full wartime-mobilization scenarios, this would effectively double (give or take) Russia’s war-making capacity. Instead of devoting some 50% of the total GDP to war, Russia could devote very close to EVERYTHING.

    All accomplished without China sending a single bullet in aid – “purely civilian trade”, if you will.

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  104. @Polish Perspective

    Something is very fishy about Russia’s poor lace in the university rankings. My nephew studies at Mekh-mat in Moscow – he chose it with the view that it was certainly not inferior to MIT or Princeton.
     
    You have to distinguish between teaching and research. I've spoken to many Polish exchange students who were utterly shocked at the lax standards of teaching even at supposedly prestigious institutions in the US, at least on the undergrad level. Remember, rankings for universities is disproportionately made up of just research output.

    A large and growing share of top researchers in the Anglo-Sphere are no longer natives but imported from abroad. This is even leading to minor hysteria with regards to Chinese nationals, in Australia but also in the US. But beyond the Chinese students, you have increasingly Indian, Vietnamese as well as a whole host of other nationalities, from all over the world, congregating in these universities.

    One should also keep in mind that not every country is concentrating its research output into universities the way Anglo-Saxon nations tend to do. Germany's universities are quite mediocre if you blindly look at university rankings, but Germany has a significant amount of elite research centers like the Max Planck Institutes, the same is true in France, which are poorly captured in these university rankings.

    I totally endorse this. Russian teaching is excellent but research is extremely uneven, to be kind.

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  105. @peterAUS

    The overall is quite simple.
    The solution, for at least key parts of the puzzle (i.e. brain-drain), is just budget priorities.

     

    You sure? It's...slightly...more complicated I think. Some would say even structural.

    Admit, you touched it here:

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.
     
    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn't it?

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn’t it?

    The money is generated by oil/gas and commodities exports in Russia, is of unimaginably vast amounts.

    The world’s largest exporter of gas. The world’s second largest exporter of oil. The world’s largest exporter of aluminium. Etc.

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It’s just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US – and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one’s still in country from leaving.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

     

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin's writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I'm reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    "Don't your children live in Australia, not Singapore?"

    "Yes, but.."

    "If you don't want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore."
    , @peterAUS

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It’s just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US – and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one’s still in country from leaving.
     
    Excellent, then.

    We just now wait to see those elites understanding the urgency and diverting those funds.
    Hahaha....O.K.

    Moving on.
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  106. @Polish Perspective

    before oil prices start to crash in the 2030s.
     
    Two things.

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that "using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating". A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that's from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet - almost all of it coming from developing countries - as an aggregate going forward.


    On top of that, years of under investment in oil exploration will reduce capacity additions going forward, thereby pushing up the price. I would be skeptical of doomster scenarios for oil prices. But I do agree that oil will be less important going forward than it has been, while still being a net addition for several decades (although a diminishing one) for whoever has it and uses it intelligently.

    As always, the biggest and greatest resource a nation can have is human capital. Russia does very well there. But human capital is not enough, how you use it is equally important. Russia does less well there, but that also means there's plenty of room for improvements.

    As a sidenote, demographics in terms of quantity is overrated for economic growth.

    The transition will come much faster. Electric cars have far fewer moving parts. Service costs will plummet and lifetimes extend. The business model will change to leasing not purchase. The cost of motoring will fall dramatically.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    During the 2020s, it seems quite possible that freight automobiles will begin to be electrified.

    In fact, there some prototypes already being experimented with .

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-daimler-competition-actro-electric-truck

    This will become far more cost effective than diesel engines.

    And in the 2030s, I would already predict the electrification of shipping industries

    https://qz.com/1137026/chinas-first-all-electric-cargo-ship-is-going-to-be-used-to-transport-coal/


    -

    Another thing to remember is that India and China both plan to shift into electric automobiles from 2030.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2017/10/10/china-raises-the-bar-with-new-electric-vehicle-rules/#2cc5513577ac

    There's a Chinese city that is gone all its buses already are electric.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/12/100-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-pop-11-9-million-end-2017/


    -


    So by the 2030s, we could easily see several million barrels of oil demand has been displaced per day.

    Again - for my calculation to displace 1 million barrels of oil per day is only requiring 36 million electric cars.
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  107. @ussr andy
    this is un-PC, but here goes:

    One thing Russia could improve, and that shouldn't cost a lot of money is this: improve the subjective quality of life.

    One thing most detrimental to which is crime.

    i.e. it must be possible, with say a professor's salary - no matter how low in absolute terms - to live in a place where you don't often run into gopniks and members of "small proud nations."

    I.e., undo the integration of the 30's (workers and peasants), 60' (more workers and peasants) and the 90's, get rid of projects etc.

    (Why is integration not a problem in America? First, because punishment is swift and severe (whereas in Russia, the menti will even try to talk you out of filing your complaint) and second, the brunt of the dysfunction is borne by working class people and where are they gonna go anyway?)

    You would be surprised how bad US cops are at what you think they are good at. At least regionally. There are areas of US that look like paradise.

    Hence crime here is exploding too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @ussr andy
    yes, but Russia's laws are really lax. "Rowdiness" for what in America would be assault, underage perps almost immune from anything (incidentally, a thing in which Russia is very European, whereas America seems to be more Old-Testament), very circumscribed limits on self-defense.

    Basically, Russia LARPs as a lefty Nordic country, therapeutic instead of retributive approaches to justice etc, but without having the demographics of a lefty Nordic country (huge native underclass, for one.)

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  108. @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    I labor under the impression that Russia has a very credible military-industrial complex vis-a-vis the United States. (Said other ways: Russia is not a Paper Tiger. Russia is a major military adversary which in some military spheres is more advanced than the US.)

    If my supposition is correct, how can that be the case in view of the presented weaknesses of Russia's scientific, engineering and manufacturing base?

    One answer could be that Russia has put all its eggs in one basket. I don't buy that since by the criteria you have presented, almost all the eggs are puny and lack nourishment.

    Another answer could be that the supposedly corrupt Russian military/industrial complex is more efficient than its bloated US competitor?

    Just asking. Your thoughts/comments (or that of any UR correspondent) would be very much appreciated.

    Russian project promoters tend to declare victory at launch or at least prototype production rather completion. Sciencethink rather than engineerthink. Underpromising and overdelivering is not a common combination in Russia.

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  109. @Dmitry

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn’t it?
     
    The money is generated by oil/gas and commodities exports in Russia, is of unimaginably vast amounts.

    The world's largest exporter of gas. The world's second largest exporter of oil. The world's largest exporter of aluminium. Etc.

    There's enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings - and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It's just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US - and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one's still in country from leaving.

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin’s writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I’m reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    “Don’t your children live in Australia, not Singapore?”

    “Yes, but..”

    “If you don’t want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore.”

    Read More
    • Agree: Talha, Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin’s writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I’m reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    “Don’t your children live in Australia, not Singapore?”

    “Yes, but..”

    “If you don’t want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore.”
     

    I don't think anti-patriotic is the way to phrase. It's more of contradiction.

    From personal experience anyway. I know a very rich girl from Peter and her father's business is something to do with projects in China. Her father owns a lot of property, and she pays everywhere with a German bank account (i.e. money is not kept in the country).

    This is nice, geeky red-hair girl with glasses, who listens to Korean music - and complains about how she hates racism and antisemitism.

    So you would guess her views. But she is posting on social media patriotic kremlinbot stuff (this in 2013) about how everyone in the West wants to destroy Russia.

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  110. @AaronB
    Anatoly - you realize you'll eventually leave Russia. It's just not the kind of place you wish it to be.

    You won't be able to single handedly make it into a clone of Anglo Saxon technology worship. Not all places prioritize technology. Some just care less.

    The logical place for you is China - what are you waiting for? They value technology even more than America, and they have great Indian restaurants.

    I'm guessing within ten years you'll be blogging from China.

    If he blogs from Hong Kong, he’ll by travelling a lot, although a bit of that will be short hops on planes and high-speed/mag-lev trains.

    He’ll need to visit many, many Chinese cities and provinces to get the science and technology pulse, places like Shenzhen (okay, that’s right across the border from HK), Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shandong, Dalian, Tianjin, Xian, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Hangzhou.

    Even just confining himself to the 3 largest innovation hubs (Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing) still entails covering very long distances

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I'll say that you get to see much of what is interesting if you just do the Shenzhen/HK hop, something which a lot of workers already do.

    What's your opinion on this, by the way? I think is been planned for some time. Huge win for Shenzhen, imo. My feeling is that they basically now have the entire province now to work by their standards.

    http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/npc-2018-china-to-unveil-plan-for-coordinated-development-of-guangdong-hong-kong
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  111. @Philip Owen
    The transition will come much faster. Electric cars have far fewer moving parts. Service costs will plummet and lifetimes extend. The business model will change to leasing not purchase. The cost of motoring will fall dramatically.

    During the 2020s, it seems quite possible that freight automobiles will begin to be electrified.

    In fact, there some prototypes already being experimented with .

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-daimler-competition-actro-electric-truck

    This will become far more cost effective than diesel engines.

    And in the 2030s, I would already predict the electrification of shipping industries

    https://qz.com/1137026/chinas-first-all-electric-cargo-ship-is-going-to-be-used-to-transport-coal/

    -

    Another thing to remember is that India and China both plan to shift into electric automobiles from 2030.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2017/10/10/china-raises-the-bar-with-new-electric-vehicle-rules/#2cc5513577ac

    There’s a Chinese city that is gone all its buses already are electric.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/12/100-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-pop-11-9-million-end-2017/

    -

    So by the 2030s, we could easily see several million barrels of oil demand has been displaced per day.

    Again – for my calculation to displace 1 million barrels of oil per day is only requiring 36 million electric cars.

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  112. @AaronB
    That's a good point, but somehow gigantic chaotic cities manage to swallow up these objectionable types of people and not only make them irrelevant, but somehow part of the fun. For instance New York City is my favorite city in America despite having the worst kinds of people from my point of view - the sheer chaos is larger than anyone, almost like a wilderness.

    San Francisco and silicon valley, by contrast, are small, and sheer tedium - despite SF being stunning. The environment is small enough to be controlled and the bad atmosphere can't get swallowed up in a larger wilderness like chaos.

    Still, I'd love to experience the Russian countryside. I'm sure it's quirky and odd.

    The roads are unbelievably bad.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    If you are talking about in the Russian countryside, well - that's what horses are for.

    Peace.
    , @AaronB
    Oh, that just adds to the adventure. I used to travel in Cambodia when even the main roads were dirt. You'd come across sections with these huge craters, and buses would have to detour through fields for miles. To cross rivers, they'd put buses on these small rickety wooden fishing boats, three of them tied together. It was absurd, seeing these giant buses on a rotting wooden platform on top of three ramshackle boats. It was great times. I'm sure the Russian countryside is a ton of fun.
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  113. @myself
    If he blogs from Hong Kong, he'll by travelling a lot, although a bit of that will be short hops on planes and high-speed/mag-lev trains.

    He'll need to visit many, many Chinese cities and provinces to get the science and technology pulse, places like Shenzhen (okay, that's right across the border from HK), Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shandong, Dalian, Tianjin, Xian, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Hangzhou.

    Even just confining himself to the 3 largest innovation hubs (Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing) still entails covering very long distances

    I’ll say that you get to see much of what is interesting if you just do the Shenzhen/HK hop, something which a lot of workers already do.

    What’s your opinion on this, by the way? I think is been planned for some time. Huge win for Shenzhen, imo. My feeling is that they basically now have the entire province now to work by their standards.

    http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/npc-2018-china-to-unveil-plan-for-coordinated-development-of-guangdong-hong-kong

    Read More
    • Replies: @myself
    Shenzhen-Guangzhou is off to a great start, but it won't be the only, or even necessarily premier urban/sci-tech hub, though it is in the running.

    I think most Mainlanders consider the long-term contest to be between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei complex (the so-called "Jingjinji" region) and the Shanghai-Hangzhou complex.

    These two "regions" are crosses between "megalopolises" and medium-sized "countries" - huge, developing at breakneck velocity and both striving to attract "the best" talent they can. In both cases, increasingly globally. Add in the Shenzhen-Guangzhou region, and you have named all the Tier-One regions of China, at least currently.

    The other metropolises are not to be totally discounted. A lot of less glamorous innovation comes out of them, like genetically engineered hogs and chickens, ultra-high-performance concrete mixes, crops that can grow in desert conditions, anti-pollution, building materials, high-tech fabrics etc. - boring but lucrative stuff, and important to the over-all economy.
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  114. @Philip Owen
    The roads are unbelievably bad.

    If you are talking about in the Russian countryside, well – that’s what horses are for.

    Peace.

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  115. @Talha
    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important - namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. - which sucks for Syria, but what're you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US - we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we'll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian - well, my money's not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.

    but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian – well, my money’s not on the Han
    ______________________________________________________

    Heck, I wouldn’t even bet on an Icelander or Maori against a frickin’ NIGERIAN.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Well it actually depends on which Nigerian; Igbo and Yoruba you might be fine.

    Hausa or Fulani, you're going to have some very serious problems.
    https://static.pulse.ng/img/incoming/origs7699085/2886368777-w644-h960/7CCDB7B7-7E5C-49FF-AD57-B5BCF4F492AD-cx0-cy12-cw0-w1023-r1-s.jpg

    I remember seeing the Nigerians at the Hajj - very tall, naturally muscular guys.

    Peace.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    I'd bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.
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  116. @Another German Reader
    - Russia doesn't need to import of basic food for its' own population.

    - Russia can fuel itself. No energy-import neccessary.

    - Russia's social underclass is native to the country. No imported cultural/racial alien underclass, who are unable to compete with the natives and are a drag in all dimensions (education; crime; work-ethic). Even Russian Muslims are seeing the Motherland as their home. Russian security-apparatus is not hold back by stupid human-rights RoE. Uppity behaviour will be crackdown hard.

    - Russian military-manufacturing capacity is still very competitive. As long as Russia can maintain the ICBM/SLBM arsenal and their carrier-systems, there is nothing to worry about. The conventional sector is also good enough.

    Those 3 factors above means that Russia will stay an important player in the 21st century.

    The Confucian countries are already much stronger than the global media suggest. Even if you take a serious look at the laggard: the Vietnamese beat any Arab/Latino/SSAfrican country in socio-economic stats/dynamics. The Confucian sphere will become Number 1. No question about it.

    The Americans (USA & Cancucks) are already polarized/racialized/de-racialized. Without the Indian Brahmins & the Confucian migrants their civilian R&D-sector would already be uncompetitive.

    More and more Brahmins & Confucians are returning like turtles to India & Sinosphere. They take 30% hit in income-level or even startup their own company back home, rather that take a hit from Somali-American diversity-expert on non-consensual intercourse. It's better get hit by Shanghai's smog that by Jose's/Tyrone's proven method of Glock-approved income-transfer. Russia might soon see a similar trend.

    Western Europe won't be able to keep up. If you visit any kindergarten/primary school you already see the breakdown of the middle-class. In many parts of Western Europe the schools breakdown to the following: 15% low-IQ Arabs/African; 2,5% smart Arab/African; 20% native Underclass; 10% E-European; 2,5% Confucian; 10% mixed; 20% native working-class; 20% native middle-class.

    But the European leaders/jounalists/mid-level bureaucrats don't see it, because their children attend school with the smart/integrated fraction of migrant-children. Diversity works for them.

    So while the Chinese & Vietnamese are bringing golden-geese home and turn rice-farmers' sons into engineers, the American & European working-class & middle-class is tormented (financially & psychological) by self-hating MSN-media, gender-BS and Arab-African enrichment. Can't build R&D-centers in no-go-zones.

    Europe will also have to deal with an ever-increasing Youth-Bulge from SS-Africa. An ever-shrinking number of productive Natives & Migrants have to feed a growing restless underclass.

    Russia has alot to do to stay competitive and whatever the flaws of Putin & his minions are, they don't import a foreign underclass.

    (Yes Yes I know, the migrant-workers from Central Asia. But is Russia burning 50 billion Euros per year to feed, police & shelter them like Germany? I don't think so.)

    Russians survived the Civil War, Stalin's madness, WW2 and the Soviet collapse. They will survive.

    Machine-Deep-learning so that Tinder can find the vegan, ManUnited-suporting, Alfa-Romeo-driving brunette twice-divorced single-mom for an one-night-stand for you? Yeah, okay.

    Six-axis Industrial robots for custom-ordered cloud-based dildo-production? Yeah, okay.

    Putin needs to spend the hard-earned tax-money on that, otherwise the Russians are going to remove him from power.

    One correction I have to make, but there is a huge difference in Chinese and Indian students that many are not aware of and their particular remigration patterns. The Chinese scholars often do move back to China, the Indians don’t. Westerners often assume Chinese and Indians are same same based off of very particularist immigrant patterns but as Anatoly himself has demonstrated, they are not. Just to give you an example but basically 6% of Beijing University students are in the USA around 4 years after graduation. The rates for an equivalent Indian school, IIT Mumbai are 67%. Even worse is that this discrepancy hides a time factor. Slightly higher percentages of BeiDa students end up in the US immediately after graduating but as the years pass more return. For Indian schools, it is the opposite as the more years it has been after matriculation the higher their chances of being in the US. That 6% brain drain shrinks with time and experience and they bring back best practices from the West. That 67% isn’t a brain drain as much as it is a brain tsunami and they not only don’t come back but those who didn’t get out continue to actively seek to leave.

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  117. @Dmitry

    Purchasing price of Sechin’s yacht alone, could have hired 150 world class researchers, on a salary of $100,000 a year, for 10 years.

    Now, from that point onward it gets a little tricky, doesn’t it?
     
    The money is generated by oil/gas and commodities exports in Russia, is of unimaginably vast amounts.

    The world's largest exporter of gas. The world's second largest exporter of oil. The world's largest exporter of aluminium. Etc.

    There's enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings - and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It's just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US - and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one's still in country from leaving.

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

    It’s just a question of understanding the urgency (which they will understand during the 2020s), and of diverting some small portion of this wealth each year to endowing universities so that they can pay the same salaries as in the US – and attract the world class researchers, and prevent the one’s still in country from leaving.

    Excellent, then.

    We just now wait to see those elites understanding the urgency and diverting those funds.
    Hahaha….O.K.

    Moving on.

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  118. @Daniel Chieh

    There’s enough that the Kremlin elite can still live like kings – and at the same time fund massively science and education, to the extent of creating a reverse brain-drain.

     

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin's writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I'm reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    "Don't your children live in Australia, not Singapore?"

    "Yes, but.."

    "If you don't want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore."

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin’s writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I’m reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    “Don’t your children live in Australia, not Singapore?”

    “Yes, but..”

    “If you don’t want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore.”

    I don’t think anti-patriotic is the way to phrase. It’s more of contradiction.

    From personal experience anyway. I know a very rich girl from Peter and her father’s business is something to do with projects in China. Her father owns a lot of property, and she pays everywhere with a German bank account (i.e. money is not kept in the country).

    This is nice, geeky red-hair girl with glasses, who listens to Korean music – and complains about how she hates racism and antisemitism.

    So you would guess her views. But she is posting on social media patriotic kremlinbot stuff (this in 2013) about how everyone in the West wants to destroy Russia.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    She just sounds like a parrot.
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  119. @Philip Owen
    The roads are unbelievably bad.

    Oh, that just adds to the adventure. I used to travel in Cambodia when even the main roads were dirt. You’d come across sections with these huge craters, and buses would have to detour through fields for miles. To cross rivers, they’d put buses on these small rickety wooden fishing boats, three of them tied together. It was absurd, seeing these giant buses on a rotting wooden platform on top of three ramshackle boats. It was great times. I’m sure the Russian countryside is a ton of fun.

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  120. @Talha
    Yeah and the same with those rich Gulf Arabs and their yachts. But minus the yacht they would probably just spend it on Barbie-doll $1000 -a-night hookers anyway - so, whatever...

    By the way, can you Russians and Slavs keep your women out of the Gulf countries? They're making monkeys out of the men there. Just asking a favor, that's all...then maybe the rich fools might think about spending the money on other things.

    Peace.

    The native men were always monkeys to begin with, that’s why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks. I have one hard and fast rule to judge if a people are capable of maintaining a modestly prosperous society. Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk. This isn’t an evaluation of feminist indoctrination but rather self control, cooperative socialization, and future time orientation. If you can’t help but grab at the candy in front of you, your society is going to be shit.

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    • Agree: Spisarevski
    • Replies: @Talha

    that’s why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks.
     
    No - the religion always mandated hijab. These are hardly potato-sacks:
    https://shukronline.com/women/womens-spring-collection.html?limit=1000

    Modest? Yes.

    Head covering and modest dress was pretty much the norm across most pre-modern societies until relatively recently. A review of the paintings from various civilizations will put any questions to rest. Our religion mandates that because God has the prerogative of commanding His female servants to dress as He wills, just as He has the right to mandate from His male servants as He wills; take it up with Him if you have an issue - we aren't about to change it because people have issues with modesty. Let your women dress as they will in your societies and deal with the consequences - have fun.

    Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk.
     
    Depends on what society you are talking about; women do fairly fine in places like Jordan*, Morocco, Malaysia and Turkey - they do less fine in places like Egypt and Pakistan. My female co-workers have gone to places like Turkey and didn't report a single negative thing. In certain Muslim cultures, like the Tuareg, the men dress even more modestly than the women.

    I don't know why we should take your criticism of Muslim in toto seriously. If you have stats on certain countries we can have a more intelligent conversation. Here, I'll start you off, there is an epidemic happening in Egypt right now with sexual harassment/assaults in public:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gja05symHkk

    Peace.

    *Note: Here is a travelogue by a lady who visited Jordan with just herself and her teenage daughter. According to you, they should have been raped about 20 times. Why does she report it as "spectacular, safe and friendly"?
    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/nov/26/jordan-petra-amman-holiday-jerash-dead-sea
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  121. @Daniel Chieh
    I'll say that you get to see much of what is interesting if you just do the Shenzhen/HK hop, something which a lot of workers already do.

    What's your opinion on this, by the way? I think is been planned for some time. Huge win for Shenzhen, imo. My feeling is that they basically now have the entire province now to work by their standards.

    http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/npc-2018-china-to-unveil-plan-for-coordinated-development-of-guangdong-hong-kong

    Shenzhen-Guangzhou is off to a great start, but it won’t be the only, or even necessarily premier urban/sci-tech hub, though it is in the running.

    I think most Mainlanders consider the long-term contest to be between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei complex (the so-called “Jingjinji” region) and the Shanghai-Hangzhou complex.

    These two “regions” are crosses between “megalopolises” and medium-sized “countries” – huge, developing at breakneck velocity and both striving to attract “the best” talent they can. In both cases, increasingly globally. Add in the Shenzhen-Guangzhou region, and you have named all the Tier-One regions of China, at least currently.

    The other metropolises are not to be totally discounted. A lot of less glamorous innovation comes out of them, like genetically engineered hogs and chickens, ultra-high-performance concrete mixes, crops that can grow in desert conditions, anti-pollution, building materials, high-tech fabrics etc. – boring but lucrative stuff, and important to the over-all economy.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Quite interesting - thank you. And yes, I do agree that the role of undramatic innovations such as the brine-resistant(and hopefully someday, brine-immune) rice breeds have outsized importance without hype.
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  122. @DreadIlk
    You would be surprised how bad US cops are at what you think they are good at. At least regionally. There are areas of US that look like paradise.

    Hence crime here is exploding too.

    yes, but Russia’s laws are really lax. “Rowdiness” for what in America would be assault, underage perps almost immune from anything (incidentally, a thing in which Russia is very European, whereas America seems to be more Old-Testament), very circumscribed limits on self-defense.

    Basically, Russia LARPs as a lefty Nordic country, therapeutic instead of retributive approaches to justice etc, but without having the demographics of a lefty Nordic country (huge native underclass, for one.)

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  123. @songbird
    I wonder how Saudi Arabia's planned mega-city will change its numbers if it gets built. My guess is the results would be embarrassing. I don't know what sort of inducements they plan to offer, but it's going to be a tough sell, in any case.

    NEOM, Saudi Arabia’s planned city, could potentially be a good thing for the region, not just for the Saudis.

    It’ll be a Special Economic Zone with a different set of rules and laws, and run by potentially the most well-educated forward thinkers in the Kingdom, and of course any foreign talent they pay to come on board.

    So, NO Sharia, more rights for women, better legal protections for workers etc. If the prince, bin Salman, has the support of the military, clergy loyal to the House of Saud (and there are some), and the educated segment of Saudi Arabia, AND he can keep out the interference of the Wahhabis, it should work.

    One thing I noticed though, was the location. On the Red Sea, on the north-west corner of Saudi Arabia, close by Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. On the junction basically between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean.

    Maybe most importantly, right smack dab on the planned route of the unfolding Maritime Silk Road.

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  124. @Duke of Qin
    The native men were always monkeys to begin with, that's why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks. I have one hard and fast rule to judge if a people are capable of maintaining a modestly prosperous society. Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk. This isn't an evaluation of feminist indoctrination but rather self control, cooperative socialization, and future time orientation. If you can't help but grab at the candy in front of you, your society is going to be shit.

    that’s why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks.

    No – the religion always mandated hijab. These are hardly potato-sacks:

    https://shukronline.com/women/womens-spring-collection.html?limit=1000

    Modest? Yes.

    Head covering and modest dress was pretty much the norm across most pre-modern societies until relatively recently. A review of the paintings from various civilizations will put any questions to rest. Our religion mandates that because God has the prerogative of commanding His female servants to dress as He wills, just as He has the right to mandate from His male servants as He wills; take it up with Him if you have an issue – we aren’t about to change it because people have issues with modesty. Let your women dress as they will in your societies and deal with the consequences – have fun.

    Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk.

    Depends on what society you are talking about; women do fairly fine in places like Jordan*, Morocco, Malaysia and Turkey – they do less fine in places like Egypt and Pakistan. My female co-workers have gone to places like Turkey and didn’t report a single negative thing. In certain Muslim cultures, like the Tuareg, the men dress even more modestly than the women.

    I don’t know why we should take your criticism of Muslim in toto seriously. If you have stats on certain countries we can have a more intelligent conversation. Here, I’ll start you off, there is an epidemic happening in Egypt right now with sexual harassment/assaults in public:

    Peace.

    *Note: Here is a travelogue by a lady who visited Jordan with just herself and her teenage daughter. According to you, they should have been raped about 20 times. Why does she report it as “spectacular, safe and friendly”?

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/nov/26/jordan-petra-amman-holiday-jerash-dead-sea

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    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    The religion mandated "covering of the hair" not even a Hijab, and it's purpose was to protect Muslimas by identifying them as such because the native society liked to play grab ass with non kin women. The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity. Your taqiyah doesn't work on me dude, you should probably recite your sermons that to your co-religionists in the Gulf as to why they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.

    Sunni Islam is prone to holiness spirals because it lacks a centralized authority to stop the fundamentalist poz with each mullah wanting to one up each other on how holy they are because theology dictates rule by the most "righteous". Its one reason why Iranians are tolerable because trying to out holy the Ayatollah gets you hanged and that whole rule by lineal descent from Ali thing puts the kibbosh on how far holiness signalling can take you.

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it's safe, give me a break. She is the exact same sort of idiot that would open the floodgates of Europe to more Muslim rapefugees. That nothing happened to her isn't because where she went was safe (it isn't) but because it wasn't likely to happen statistically speaking, but was still completly reckless because of the far higher risk involved. Just because I step out into the middle of a lightning storm carrying a metal pole and don't get zapped by lightning doesn't make it a good idea. People are poor at thinking in terms of probability. Most muslims aren't murderous jihadists, but it only takes a miniscule percentage of them to wreck the social cohesion and sense of public safety that permeates non muslim societies. It's like publically pissing in a swimming pool. Sure the ratio of urine to water is probably only maybe 2 or 3 parts mer million so it realistically wont do any harm. It's still going to drive out other swimmers though. Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.

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  125. @myself
    but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian – well, my money’s not on the Han
    ______________________________________________________

    Heck, I wouldn't even bet on an Icelander or Maori against a frickin' NIGERIAN.

    Well it actually depends on which Nigerian; Igbo and Yoruba you might be fine.

    Hausa or Fulani, you’re going to have some very serious problems.

    I remember seeing the Nigerians at the Hajj – very tall, naturally muscular guys.

    Peace.

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  126. @Talha
    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important - namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. - which sucks for Syria, but what're you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US - we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we'll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian - well, my money's not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.

    They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Yes, they have been the world’s go-to source of slaves for centuries not without reason.

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  127. @Talha

    that’s why your religion mandates that your women are dressed in potato sacks.
     
    No - the religion always mandated hijab. These are hardly potato-sacks:
    https://shukronline.com/women/womens-spring-collection.html?limit=1000

    Modest? Yes.

    Head covering and modest dress was pretty much the norm across most pre-modern societies until relatively recently. A review of the paintings from various civilizations will put any questions to rest. Our religion mandates that because God has the prerogative of commanding His female servants to dress as He wills, just as He has the right to mandate from His male servants as He wills; take it up with Him if you have an issue - we aren't about to change it because people have issues with modesty. Let your women dress as they will in your societies and deal with the consequences - have fun.

    Are outgroup women safe from spontaneous sexual assaults among a random group of their men folk.
     
    Depends on what society you are talking about; women do fairly fine in places like Jordan*, Morocco, Malaysia and Turkey - they do less fine in places like Egypt and Pakistan. My female co-workers have gone to places like Turkey and didn't report a single negative thing. In certain Muslim cultures, like the Tuareg, the men dress even more modestly than the women.

    I don't know why we should take your criticism of Muslim in toto seriously. If you have stats on certain countries we can have a more intelligent conversation. Here, I'll start you off, there is an epidemic happening in Egypt right now with sexual harassment/assaults in public:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gja05symHkk

    Peace.

    *Note: Here is a travelogue by a lady who visited Jordan with just herself and her teenage daughter. According to you, they should have been raped about 20 times. Why does she report it as "spectacular, safe and friendly"?
    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2016/nov/26/jordan-petra-amman-holiday-jerash-dead-sea

    The religion mandated “covering of the hair” not even a Hijab, and it’s purpose was to protect Muslimas by identifying them as such because the native society liked to play grab ass with non kin women. The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity. Your taqiyah doesn’t work on me dude, you should probably recite your sermons that to your co-religionists in the Gulf as to why they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.

    Sunni Islam is prone to holiness spirals because it lacks a centralized authority to stop the fundamentalist poz with each mullah wanting to one up each other on how holy they are because theology dictates rule by the most “righteous”. Its one reason why Iranians are tolerable because trying to out holy the Ayatollah gets you hanged and that whole rule by lineal descent from Ali thing puts the kibbosh on how far holiness signalling can take you.

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it’s safe, give me a break. She is the exact same sort of idiot that would open the floodgates of Europe to more Muslim rapefugees. That nothing happened to her isn’t because where she went was safe (it isn’t) but because it wasn’t likely to happen statistically speaking, but was still completly reckless because of the far higher risk involved. Just because I step out into the middle of a lightning storm carrying a metal pole and don’t get zapped by lightning doesn’t make it a good idea. People are poor at thinking in terms of probability. Most muslims aren’t murderous jihadists, but it only takes a miniscule percentage of them to wreck the social cohesion and sense of public safety that permeates non muslim societies. It’s like publically pissing in a swimming pool. Sure the ratio of urine to water is probably only maybe 2 or 3 parts mer million so it realistically wont do any harm. It’s still going to drive out other swimmers though. Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.

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    • Troll: Jonathan Revusky
    • Replies: @Talha

    The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity.
     
    No, actually it was as I explained - a religious ruling. Specifically for free women; Muslim slave women don't have to cover their hair. Muslims can't violate non-Muslim women with impunity, we can't even touch them.

    Your taqiyah doesn’t work on me dude
     
    Great thanks - these aren't the droids you are looking for...

    they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.
     
    They aren't - some schools mandate niqab. The minimum all schools agree on is hijab - thus that is the lowest bar by consensus. So if the women in Yemen choose to adhere to the Shafi'i school, that's up to them, why should I care - I don't live life as if I have some God-given right to stare at another man's wife.

    Look, I'm glad you have opinions on such matters, but if you want to have a serious conversation, then up your game. If you think Sunni Islam naturally tends towards Wahhabism - that's fine with me. Again, why should I take you seriously? Especially when trends are totally going in the other direction - even the Saudis are asking questions:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyHeRImQOl0

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it’s safe, give me a break.
     
    OK - again, why should I accept your opinion over hers - have you been to Jordan?

    Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.
     
    OK- if this is your contention just say so without coming up with a lot of un-backed assertions about Muslim lands you have never traveled to and a Mickey-Mouse understanding of the religion. Look, if you want us out of non-Muslim lands because we end up adversely affecting your ability to hookup with women by affecting the modesty factor in societies* - then call your representatives to have us kicked out. Just do it legally, the vast majority of us are law-abiding as you pointed out, we'll file out in an orderly manner.

    And I know you have issues with Islam, but the women keep on converting - at three times the rate of men (like my wife who is a White convert and studying to get her alimiyyah degree in the Hanafi school)...so you've got to work harder about getting the message out because the baby-producing females don't seem to be getting the message.

    Now I'm sure you have more opinions, but unless you back them up with facts and sources, why does your opinion carry more weight than the guy who fixed my plumbing? I mean, you're not really a "duke" are you? And if you think I'm doing taqiyyah, why are you wasting your time with me if I'm just going to lie to you? Don't you have some online MMORPG you can spend time on?

    *Note:
    "Furthermore, researchers found that the religious values of a Muslim majority in a country appear to have a significant influence on the sexual norms of the wider population. The findings show that every 1 percent increase in the percentage of Muslims in a country is associated with a 2 percent decrease in the likelihood of premarital sex for all residents, regardless of their religious identity."
    http://www.medicaldaily.com/muslims-least-likely-engage-premarital-and-extramarital-sex-study-suggests-243190
    , @anonymous

    women look like (fat) ninjas
     
    LOL! You sure appear to be a super butthurt Islamophobe, watching hatefully as an increasing number of people are choosing spiritual success - which will be the real measure of success in His Judgment - over everything else... and as Talha mentions, more women and men!!

    Ouch, that must hurt, where it hurts most. ;)

    So, given all those blessed women from your shores who willingly submit to Him, and none other, and wish to cover themselves voluntarily, do degenerates like you understand now that modesty of Muslim women is not something normally forced down by their "misogynist" men, but comes innately to those who live to obey the commandments of God, the One and only.

    Here is something to ponder... If your kind has a problem with modesty being a required virtue of human existence... what does that tell you about yourselves?

    The fact that your type has no problem with strangers ogling your women from top to bottom, they in varying levels of undress, perhaps you even getting a kick out of it, encouraging those strange eyes to all kinds of fantasies... what does that tell you about yourselves?

    You understand that there is a certain profession associated with such behaviour, yeah!


    Its one reason why Iranians are tolerable
     
    Who cares about those Iranians, or how you degenerates might think they are more "tolerable." It's not like we give a rat's ass what the cursed godless think of us, for we live to earn His approval, over everything else.

    Your kind are either pagan polytheist human worshippers, or from the increasing ranks of godless... while those Shiites are borderline polytheist too, with their "O Ali help!," human deification calls.

    Both are inconsequential to His chosen faith for mankind... True Monotheism.


    rapefugees
     
    You think nobody has noticed evidence of the utter filth of the Rapepean male? Deceit, deflection and "Moslem" bogeyman, are not going to help your problems degenerates.

    but it only takes a miniscule percentage of them to wreck the social cohesion
     
    Yes, it is true that Muslims do not assimilate well in western societies. That is actually good for them, because assimilation would mean adopting the insidious path, which leads one away from the One and only.

    Does that mean western societies should ban true monotheists from entering? Sure, why not, it is entirely your prerogative that you wish to wallow in pagan polytheist heathenism and/or godlessness. So go ahead, it's your sorry polytheist hides which will pay anyway.

    But, before that, you better get your mofing Greedy Psychopathic hands off of Muslim lands, and put an end to your satanic mischief there.

    If not, as is inevitable, then may the "rapefugees" flood your lands, and wipe you basterds out.

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  128. @AP

    Although this post was primarily about Russia, feel free to go back through the hyperlinks and study the case of the Ukraine, where liberal “lustrators” have repeatedly won; it might as well be Sub-Saharan Africa so far as advanced science, native hi-tech (as opposed to offshored work), and any sort of capital-intensive manufacturing that wasn’t bequeathed to it by the USSR is concerned.
     
    Unless you mean South Africa, then not really.

    University rankings:

    https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2018

    Ukraine ranks slightly ahead of Poland (I suspect both countries, like EE in general, are undervalued). Ukraine's top university, in Kharkiv, is ranked 401-410. It's number two university, in Kiev, (Taras Shevchenko National University) is tied with Poland's number one (Warsaw) at 411-420. It's number three (Kiev Polytechnic) beats Poland's number three.

    In comparison, Russia's St. Petersburg Polytechnic is also at 401-410, tied with Ukraine's number one. It is Russia's 11th.

    By your own charts, Ukraine has 2 AI hubs. Fewer than South Africa's 4 but more than anywhere else in Africa, more than the Balkans outside Slovenia. Ukraine's production of machines in 2014-2015 (crisis years, it has improved since then) was about the same as, and slightly lower than, that of Hungary, and higher than Romania. It was well above South Africa, even.

    Ukraine's auto production is starting to pick up, with production doubling since last year. Increase is due to the Skoda plant in Uzhhorod (auto-making has seemingly died in Zaporozhye). There is plenty of IT R & D in Ukraine:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2017/09/07/why-building-rd-in-ukraine-is-a-great-idea/#2f8c9a7e7ea0

    Ukraine's military research development, which had been stagnant during the Yanukovich years, has really picked up. It seems to be doing what Russia had been doing in the 2000s, dusting off and modernizing late Soviet-era projects.

    Here is an example of new development, funded by Saudis:

    http://defence-blog.com/news/ukraine-unveils-new-tactical-missile-system.html

    Ukraine has started work on the development of its own hypersonic missiles. I imagine if Poland provided funding...

    1. Nature Index – 24 (equivalent to Estonia; but ok, a lot higher than SSA except S. Africa)

    2. Highly cited researchers, top500 supercomputers, sequencers – zero

    3. VC – non-existent in reports; probably a couple of million dollars

    4. Industrial robots – usually a dozen (!) shipments per year. (Russia: A still catastrophic 500). Approximately equal to Africa minus South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

    So okay, will admit that overall I overdid the Sub-Saharan Africa comparison. Still, the Ukraine is a scientific desert even relative to Russia, which in turn is a scientific desert relative to the West and now China.

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    • Replies: @AP

    VC – non-existent in reports; probably a couple of million dollars
     
    $265 million in 2017. Growth has been very high and 2017 is a very different world from 2015:

    http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/490157.html

    Total investment in Ukrainian IT companies reached $265 million in 2017, which is a 3.3-fold increase from 2016, according to a report of AVentures Capital after the publication of the Dealbook of Ukraine drafted in partnership with the Ukrainian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (UVCA), Ukrainian business angels network UAngels and Ukraine Digital News association.

    The largest deals disclosed in 2017 were $110 million of investments in Grammarly (from General Catalyst, IVP and Spark Capital), $30 million in BitFurry (from Credit China Fintech Holdings), $10 million in Petcube (from Almaz Capital, Y Combinator, AVentures Capital, U.Ventures, Digital Future and others) and $7 million in People.ai (from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Index Ventures, Shasta Ventures, Y Combinator and SV Angel).
    , @Liza
    Fixation on science has reached a point of diminishing returns. Time to look elsewhere.
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  129. Putin should have quit after his first two terms, he has been spinning his wheels ever since. The lack of any real opposition to United Russia means zilch will happen in terms of actual reform in making the country somewhere smart, productive, ambitious and law-abiding people want to live, create and invest in businesses, and raise their families. The country as is reminds me of Iran and Pakistan where a predatory elite calls the shots and is not particularly interested in fostering opportunities for the talented who look elsewhere to build their careers.

    As for Anatoly if he is going to leave, he should come to the UK despite our terrible internet speeds. We have the best Indian food, a sizeable Russian community and Moscow is not that far away.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks but no thanks, I am quite happy in Moscow.

    I have cause to visit London every now and then and I am not a big fan of it, having already done all the touristy stuff.
    , @peterAUS

    Putin should have quit after his first two terms, he has been spinning his wheels ever since. The lack of any real opposition to United Russia means zilch will happen in terms of actual reform in making the country somewhere smart, productive, ambitious and law-abiding people want to live, create and invest in businesses, and raise their families. The country as is reminds me of Iran and Pakistan where a predatory elite calls the shots and is not particularly interested in fostering opportunities for the talented who look elsewhere to build their careers.
     
    Agree.
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  130. @TheJester
    Anatoly,

    You repeatedly reference Russia being at a level of, let's say, Switzerland in high-tech areas. One way of interpreting this is that Russia is like Switzerland with a large extraneous population just getting by in its massive "outback".

    The United States is similar to this. The high-tech areas are highly concentrated in select locations (primarily on the coasts). Very few of them are in the so-called American "great flyover" that reminds me of the abandoned factories and decaying infrastructure of post-Soviet Eastern Europe.

    I once worked in state-level economic development. One of the tasks was to try to copy the success of the high-tech "triangles, corridors, and valleys" in the "flyover" state I worked for. One looks for formulas. However, it seems that each of the high-tech "triangles, corridors, and valleys" had its own unique history and conditions. There was no set formula. Things happened until each reached a critical mass in its specialty ... and then things took off in a positive feedback system.

    Perhaps China succeeds by sheer mass, force of will, investment, and patience ... as well as a willingness to steal high tech wherever they can find it. As in the days of the Soviet Union, this works well in a centrally planned, totalitarian society. It works less well in a market economy that limits the role of government.

    Well, you could extend this indefinitely. For instance, I’m sure that a disproportionate amount of Swiss achievement is concentrated in Zurich and Geneva; ergo for Massachusetts and the Silicon Valley in the US; either of which would put Russia’s “elite” region, Moscow, to shame.

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  131. @ThreeCranes
    Here is a list of the countries' accomplishments from The Nature Index weighted by population size. I took the total from column 4 and divided by % population as given in Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population).

    Switzerland 9264
    Singapore 5459
    Denmark 3934
    Israel 3810
    U.K. 3534
    USA 3533
    Sweden`` 3477
    Germany 3296
    Netherlands 3292
    Australia 2553
    Canada 2524
    Austria 2377
    Belgium 2240
    Finland 2192
    France 2058
    Spain 1607
    Japan 1529
    S. Korea 1456
    Italy 1136
    Taiwan 1071
    Poland 400
    China 348
    Russia 195
    Brazil 90
    India 46

    One more confirmation of Switzerland’s ridiculous overperformance on most things.

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    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
    Switzerland has been the default location for pan-European science megaprojects - neutral, stable, centrally located and not a French-German flashpoint. (Belgium, in contrast, is the prime location for the political pan-European project because it has been a French-German flashpoint.) Eg. nearly every particle physicist in Europe is affiliated with CERN in one way or another because you need that giant particle accelerator and in Europe they're built in Switzerland.

    If they're placing articles in countries based on institutional affiliation or place of authors residence, Switzerland is going to get massively boosted by being the prime pan-European institute location. Also Russia is going to get punished in ratings by a lot of Russian authors working in European or American institutions but little to the other direction.

    A part of this pattern must simply be a map of English skills - universities in UK, US and the northwest corner of Europe with languages really close to English have been painless choices for scientists - and that means Russia is likely to improve with increasing English proficiency. (Of course that also means catching the poz.)
    , @Miro23

    One more confirmation of Switzerland’s ridiculous over performance on most things.
     
    And maybe not coincidentally , they also enjoy one of the world's few true democracies with 80%+ of taxation, spending and decision making being local (Canton and Commune) with obligatory citizen participation.
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  132. @AaronB
    Anatoly - you realize you'll eventually leave Russia. It's just not the kind of place you wish it to be.

    You won't be able to single handedly make it into a clone of Anglo Saxon technology worship. Not all places prioritize technology. Some just care less.

    The logical place for you is China - what are you waiting for? They value technology even more than America, and they have great Indian restaurants.

    I'm guessing within ten years you'll be blogging from China.

    I do indeed hope to do a China tour once I’m more financially stable and get some projects out of the way.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    Very much look forward to hearing your reports.
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  133. @Duke of Qin
    The religion mandated "covering of the hair" not even a Hijab, and it's purpose was to protect Muslimas by identifying them as such because the native society liked to play grab ass with non kin women. The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity. Your taqiyah doesn't work on me dude, you should probably recite your sermons that to your co-religionists in the Gulf as to why they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.

    Sunni Islam is prone to holiness spirals because it lacks a centralized authority to stop the fundamentalist poz with each mullah wanting to one up each other on how holy they are because theology dictates rule by the most "righteous". Its one reason why Iranians are tolerable because trying to out holy the Ayatollah gets you hanged and that whole rule by lineal descent from Ali thing puts the kibbosh on how far holiness signalling can take you.

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it's safe, give me a break. She is the exact same sort of idiot that would open the floodgates of Europe to more Muslim rapefugees. That nothing happened to her isn't because where she went was safe (it isn't) but because it wasn't likely to happen statistically speaking, but was still completly reckless because of the far higher risk involved. Just because I step out into the middle of a lightning storm carrying a metal pole and don't get zapped by lightning doesn't make it a good idea. People are poor at thinking in terms of probability. Most muslims aren't murderous jihadists, but it only takes a miniscule percentage of them to wreck the social cohesion and sense of public safety that permeates non muslim societies. It's like publically pissing in a swimming pool. Sure the ratio of urine to water is probably only maybe 2 or 3 parts mer million so it realistically wont do any harm. It's still going to drive out other swimmers though. Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.

    The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity.

    No, actually it was as I explained – a religious ruling. Specifically for free women; Muslim slave women don’t have to cover their hair. Muslims can’t violate non-Muslim women with impunity, we can’t even touch them.

    Your taqiyah doesn’t work on me dude

    Great thanks – these aren’t the droids you are looking for…

    they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.

    They aren’t – some schools mandate niqab. The minimum all schools agree on is hijab – thus that is the lowest bar by consensus. So if the women in Yemen choose to adhere to the Shafi’i school, that’s up to them, why should I care – I don’t live life as if I have some God-given right to stare at another man’s wife.

    Look, I’m glad you have opinions on such matters, but if you want to have a serious conversation, then up your game. If you think Sunni Islam naturally tends towards Wahhabism – that’s fine with me. Again, why should I take you seriously? Especially when trends are totally going in the other direction – even the Saudis are asking questions:

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it’s safe, give me a break.

    OK – again, why should I accept your opinion over hers – have you been to Jordan?

    Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.

    OK- if this is your contention just say so without coming up with a lot of un-backed assertions about Muslim lands you have never traveled to and a Mickey-Mouse understanding of the religion. Look, if you want us out of non-Muslim lands because we end up adversely affecting your ability to hookup with women by affecting the modesty factor in societies* – then call your representatives to have us kicked out. Just do it legally, the vast majority of us are law-abiding as you pointed out, we’ll file out in an orderly manner.

    And I know you have issues with Islam, but the women keep on converting – at three times the rate of men (like my wife who is a White convert and studying to get her alimiyyah degree in the Hanafi school)…so you’ve got to work harder about getting the message out because the baby-producing females don’t seem to be getting the message.

    Now I’m sure you have more opinions, but unless you back them up with facts and sources, why does your opinion carry more weight than the guy who fixed my plumbing? I mean, you’re not really a “duke” are you? And if you think I’m doing taqiyyah, why are you wasting your time with me if I’m just going to lie to you? Don’t you have some online MMORPG you can spend time on?

    *Note:
    “Furthermore, researchers found that the religious values of a Muslim majority in a country appear to have a significant influence on the sexual norms of the wider population. The findings show that every 1 percent increase in the percentage of Muslims in a country is associated with a 2 percent decrease in the likelihood of premarital sex for all residents, regardless of their religious identity.”

    http://www.medicaldaily.com/muslims-least-likely-engage-premarital-and-extramarital-sex-study-suggests-243190

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    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    You are right, why am I wasting time with a serial dissimulator, particularly an obnoxious subcontinental one at that? Enjoy laying waste to the West; not my homeland, not my problem.
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  134. @Anatoly Karlin
    I do indeed hope to do a China tour once I'm more financially stable and get some projects out of the way.

    Very much look forward to hearing your reports.

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  135. @Dmitry

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”. A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.
     
    Yes it's a witty quote from the executive.

    But not really true - plastics only account for 4% of oil demand.* And in the future it will be more and more possible to recycle plastics.

    Oil will always be necessary in the future. But like most commodities markets, the price fluctuates wildly up and down in response to supply and demand.

    A surplus in supply to demand of a few million barrels of oil a day, can completely crash demand, resulting in kind of low prices occurred during 1990s. In relation to electrification of transport I'll add a comment below.

    *

    http://www.bpf.co.uk/data/content/images/o/oil%20graph.jpg

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that’s from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet – almost all of it coming from developing countries – as an aggregate going forward.
     
    There doesn't have to be total changeover, or even majority changeover, to crash oil prices.

    Average driver uses up maybe 10 barrels of oil a year. So let's say every 36 cars, will displace 1 barrel of oil a day.

    So every 36 million electric cars on road, will displace 1 million barrels of oil per day.

    Last oil price crash in 2014-2016 (which was a small crash - not like the 1980s/1990s oil glut -, but still enough to send economy into recession), was caused by surplus production of 2 million barrels of oil per day, sparked originally by unexpected gains of shale oil industry.

    In order to have similar price crash effect through oil demand, will then require only replacement of 72 million current cars, by electric vehicles.

    In America alone, there are 250 million cars/trucks.

    -

    The other issue to remember is that in the 2030s, there is also possibility of electrification of shipping industry.

    With this in mind, there is very possibility that the 2030s, will be significant oil price crashes occurring, not just like in 2014-2016, but more on the scale of the 1990s.

    -

    This should give a strong urgency to efforts to channel current vast surplus wealth the country enjoys, into efforts for diversification. Otherwise, can see a repeat of what happened as a result (above the political events) of '1980s/1990s oil glut'.

    Interesting way to think about this, thanks.

    Using this method, Bloomberg thinks the crash could come as early as 2023.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Where does the magic number of 2 million barrels come form?
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  136. @Anatoly Karlin
    Interesting way to think about this, thanks.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/img/ev-predicting-crash.jpg

    Using this method, Bloomberg thinks the crash could come as early as 2023.

    Where does the magic number of 2 million barrels come form?

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  137. @myself
    but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian – well, my money’s not on the Han
    ______________________________________________________

    Heck, I wouldn't even bet on an Icelander or Maori against a frickin' NIGERIAN.

    I’d bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I’d bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.
     
    Yes, but can they fight?

    When was the last time an Icelander won an Olympic gold medal in boxing, wrestling, Judo, or Tae Kwon Do? Or even fencing or a shooting event? I see that they have ONE bronze medal in Judo from 1984 (when the Commie bloc was on boycott, and that bloc was made up of Judo powerhouses).

    Absolute physical strength =/= superior fighting ability.
    , @Talha
    Good point! Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?

    Peace.
    , @AP
    Judging by sports performance at the highest levels (Olympics, sports such as positions in American football) Africans are, in general, capable of more agility than are Europeans but, in general, have less brute strength.
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  138. @Dmitry

    The issue, from what I infer from Mr. Karlin’s writings, is that the Kremlin elite appear not merely unpatriotic, but almost anti-patriotic. I’m reminded of LKY of Singapore lashing out in a meeting about his opposite number:

    “Don’t your children live in Australia, not Singapore?”

    “Yes, but..”

    “If you don’t want your children to grow up in Singapore, then you have no right to have an opinion in the future of Singapore.”
     

    I don't think anti-patriotic is the way to phrase. It's more of contradiction.

    From personal experience anyway. I know a very rich girl from Peter and her father's business is something to do with projects in China. Her father owns a lot of property, and she pays everywhere with a German bank account (i.e. money is not kept in the country).

    This is nice, geeky red-hair girl with glasses, who listens to Korean music - and complains about how she hates racism and antisemitism.

    So you would guess her views. But she is posting on social media patriotic kremlinbot stuff (this in 2013) about how everyone in the West wants to destroy Russia.

    She just sounds like a parrot.

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    • LOL: German_reader
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Nice, liberal, but not less gullible to kremlin propaganda.

    And I'm not sure it's common either - some connection between being multimillionaires and being anti-patriotic.
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  139. @Ali Choudhury
    Putin should have quit after his first two terms, he has been spinning his wheels ever since. The lack of any real opposition to United Russia means zilch will happen in terms of actual reform in making the country somewhere smart, productive, ambitious and law-abiding people want to live, create and invest in businesses, and raise their families. The country as is reminds me of Iran and Pakistan where a predatory elite calls the shots and is not particularly interested in fostering opportunities for the talented who look elsewhere to build their careers.

    As for Anatoly if he is going to leave, he should come to the UK despite our terrible internet speeds. We have the best Indian food, a sizeable Russian community and Moscow is not that far away.

    Thanks but no thanks, I am quite happy in Moscow.

    I have cause to visit London every now and then and I am not a big fan of it, having already done all the touristy stuff.

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  140. @Talha

    The original function was akin to gang colors, to identify in group women as opposed to dirty kuffar women which Muslims could violate with impunity.
     
    No, actually it was as I explained - a religious ruling. Specifically for free women; Muslim slave women don't have to cover their hair. Muslims can't violate non-Muslim women with impunity, we can't even touch them.

    Your taqiyah doesn’t work on me dude
     
    Great thanks - these aren't the droids you are looking for...

    they are theologically wrong in mandating their women look like (fat) ninjas.
     
    They aren't - some schools mandate niqab. The minimum all schools agree on is hijab - thus that is the lowest bar by consensus. So if the women in Yemen choose to adhere to the Shafi'i school, that's up to them, why should I care - I don't live life as if I have some God-given right to stare at another man's wife.

    Look, I'm glad you have opinions on such matters, but if you want to have a serious conversation, then up your game. If you think Sunni Islam naturally tends towards Wahhabism - that's fine with me. Again, why should I take you seriously? Especially when trends are totally going in the other direction - even the Saudis are asking questions:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyHeRImQOl0

    As for a woman traveling without male escort with her prime child bearing age daughter claiming that it’s safe, give me a break.
     
    OK - again, why should I accept your opinion over hers - have you been to Jordan?

    Thats the deleterious effect muslims have non non muslim societies.
     
    OK- if this is your contention just say so without coming up with a lot of un-backed assertions about Muslim lands you have never traveled to and a Mickey-Mouse understanding of the religion. Look, if you want us out of non-Muslim lands because we end up adversely affecting your ability to hookup with women by affecting the modesty factor in societies* - then call your representatives to have us kicked out. Just do it legally, the vast majority of us are law-abiding as you pointed out, we'll file out in an orderly manner.

    And I know you have issues with Islam, but the women keep on converting - at three times the rate of men (like my wife who is a White convert and studying to get her alimiyyah degree in the Hanafi school)...so you've got to work harder about getting the message out because the baby-producing females don't seem to be getting the message.

    Now I'm sure you have more opinions, but unless you back them up with facts and sources, why does your opinion carry more weight than the guy who fixed my plumbing? I mean, you're not really a "duke" are you? And if you think I'm doing taqiyyah, why are you wasting your time with me if I'm just going to lie to you? Don't you have some online MMORPG you can spend time on?

    *Note:
    "Furthermore, researchers found that the religious values of a Muslim majority in a country appear to have a significant influence on the sexual norms of the wider population. The findings show that every 1 percent increase in the percentage of Muslims in a country is associated with a 2 percent decrease in the likelihood of premarital sex for all residents, regardless of their religious identity."
    http://www.medicaldaily.com/muslims-least-likely-engage-premarital-and-extramarital-sex-study-suggests-243190

    You are right, why am I wasting time with a serial dissimulator, particularly an obnoxious subcontinental one at that? Enjoy laying waste to the West; not my homeland, not my problem.

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    • Replies: @Talha

    Enjoy laying waste to the West
     
    Yeah, we'll let you know how French babies taste once we have the numbers to legalize halal-slaughtering them in our abattoirs.

    Probably like chicken...we'll send some over and you can see if they taste like dog.

    Anyway - have a nice day as well.
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  141. @Duke of Qin
    You are right, why am I wasting time with a serial dissimulator, particularly an obnoxious subcontinental one at that? Enjoy laying waste to the West; not my homeland, not my problem.

    Enjoy laying waste to the West

    Yeah, we’ll let you know how French babies taste once we have the numbers to legalize halal-slaughtering them in our abattoirs.

    Probably like chicken…we’ll send some over and you can see if they taste like dog.

    Anyway – have a nice day as well.

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  142. @Ali Choudhury
    Putin should have quit after his first two terms, he has been spinning his wheels ever since. The lack of any real opposition to United Russia means zilch will happen in terms of actual reform in making the country somewhere smart, productive, ambitious and law-abiding people want to live, create and invest in businesses, and raise their families. The country as is reminds me of Iran and Pakistan where a predatory elite calls the shots and is not particularly interested in fostering opportunities for the talented who look elsewhere to build their careers.

    As for Anatoly if he is going to leave, he should come to the UK despite our terrible internet speeds. We have the best Indian food, a sizeable Russian community and Moscow is not that far away.

    Putin should have quit after his first two terms, he has been spinning his wheels ever since. The lack of any real opposition to United Russia means zilch will happen in terms of actual reform in making the country somewhere smart, productive, ambitious and law-abiding people want to live, create and invest in businesses, and raise their families. The country as is reminds me of Iran and Pakistan where a predatory elite calls the shots and is not particularly interested in fostering opportunities for the talented who look elsewhere to build their careers.

    Agree.

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  143. @Anatoly Karlin
    One more confirmation of Switzerland's ridiculous overperformance on most things.

    Switzerland has been the default location for pan-European science megaprojects – neutral, stable, centrally located and not a French-German flashpoint. (Belgium, in contrast, is the prime location for the political pan-European project because it has been a French-German flashpoint.) Eg. nearly every particle physicist in Europe is affiliated with CERN in one way or another because you need that giant particle accelerator and in Europe they’re built in Switzerland.

    If they’re placing articles in countries based on institutional affiliation or place of authors residence, Switzerland is going to get massively boosted by being the prime pan-European institute location. Also Russia is going to get punished in ratings by a lot of Russian authors working in European or American institutions but little to the other direction.

    A part of this pattern must simply be a map of English skills – universities in UK, US and the northwest corner of Europe with languages really close to English have been painless choices for scientists – and that means Russia is likely to improve with increasing English proficiency. (Of course that also means catching the poz.)

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    • Replies: @Yan Shen
    Right, I was going to make a comment along these lines, but you've beat me to it. Similarly, Singapore probably gets a non-trivial boost as well from being able to attract international talent in the Asian-Pacific region. A bit surprised that Karlin slipped on this one...
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  144. It’s a complicated world, always moving in several directions at once… America and Britain are very troubled societies in many ways, contain so many trends that ought to be bad for the long term – and yet the anglosphere still has this enormous lead in science, and specifically in artificial intelligence.

    Consider California. Almost half the population don’t speak English at home, many Americans would fight to prevent their own state becoming like California, and the state is perpetually at odds with the new national government – and yet it is also home to these ultra-rich goliaths of AI research.

    Or London! Native population being replaced by post-imperial immigrants, tightly surveilled scene of terror attacks, but also home of Deep Mind, which has been producing some of the most alarming advances in AI.

    China surely has a chance to be the place where superhuman AI is first produced, but America is unquestionably still in the lead. Along with all that native and imported brainpower, Americans seem uniquely willing to form radical technological subcultures that embrace the replacement of natural humanity with something else.

    So it makes me wonder how this coexists with all those supposedly deleterious trends like progressivism, indiscriminate immigration, and the formation of a liberal/Jewish/globalist elite.

    Is the American lead due to a legacy built up before the bad trends took over? Is the badness of the trends overstated – might they just be superficial troubles, rather than harbingers of America turning into Venezuela-with-nukes?

    Could they actually be of a piece with the futurist technological drive? Is an elite that is willing to fight its own legacy citizens, for the right to bring in millions of foreigners, just displaying the same extraordinary hubris and ruthless ambition required to spy on the whole world or commodify life itself?

    Or could it even be that the badness of the pozz is being overstated? That the multiracial, LGBT-friendly culture is a new viable equilibrium for a human society, rather than being a sign of decline and disintegration?

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    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Bliss

    Or London! Native population being replaced by post-imperial immigrants, tightly surveilled scene of terror attacks, but also home of Deep Mind, which has been producing some of the most alarming advances in AI.
     
    One of the founders (the AI genius) of DeepMind has a Chinese Singaporean mother and a Greek Cypriot father:

    https://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/alphago_fullbleed_3.jpg


    Another founder has a Syrian taxi driver father and English nurse mother (Steve Jobs father was a Syrian muslim as well):

    https://wi-images.condecdn.net/image/EMEeY70x6XB/crop/1440/f/wired-2016-mustafa-3.jpg


    The third founder is a kiwi:

    https://www.businessinsider.in/thumb/msid-51381302,width-640,resizemode-4/19-Shane-Legg-cofounder.jpg


    Hybrid Vigor?
    , @Another German Reader
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure

    Your fancy AI-research program are not going to work if your chief-scientist is a speed-bump in the latest Jihadi Motorsports-event.

    Your chief-of-production becomes an alcoholic after his daughter's suicide, three weeks after enrichment by a Gambian peanut-production-expert. That's when your factory starts piling up problems.

    Your fancy Gigafactory has no juice, because Mr Pham and his little weed-basement-factory overloads some local transformer leading to series of breakdown and ulitmately the whole grid, which was caused by years of under-investment and Renewables-regulation.

    You transgender, Muslim lesbian black Chief-of-Diversity-training installs the latest Farmville-game on her laptop. Three hours later Mr Wang, head of research of Yunnan Tech Group, receives a thumbstick with all your company's upcoming tech from his boss. Five days later Yunnan Tech Group files patents all over the world. A year later Mr Wang receives the Nobel prize for his breakthrough research and Yunnan is the fastest growing tech-company in the world. Your company files for bankruptcy.

    You mayor spends tax-money on Section-8 housing-project for Mbutu and his prosecuted band of gay-activists from Congo and Hassan, the Syrian Civil War-refugee and his 5 sons and 3 daughters and the 2 illerate wives. The remaining tax-money is spent on the #MeToo-memorial. This is the way to go.
    Meanwhile Samsung Vietnam Ltd.'s third R&D-center - with 2000 scientists - is being opened in Bac Ninh - in addition to the 8000 new workers being hired in the factory next door. Ten years ago people in Bac Ninh were subistence-farmers.

    But at least you don't have to read those awful far-right-fake-news on your Facebook feedline anymore. Thank god for Heiko Maas.

    Be honest, doesn't Idris Elba deliver a fine performance as SS-commander Himmler in his latest movie? This is Oscar-materiel!

    Russkis have no chance. Putinland is doomed. Heck my Mark1-eyeball system tells me that the Su-57 is no threat to our soldiers. Our Spec-Ops soldiers are culturally-sensitive and have tampons at hand for victims of Boko Haram.
    , @Bardon Kaldian

    Or could it even be that the badness of the pozz is being overstated? That the multiracial, LGBT-friendly culture is a new viable equilibrium for a human society, rather than being a sign of decline and disintegration?
     
    I've been thinking about this topic for quite a long time and.... no, it's a form of suicide. Without going into history & culture, it is evident from everyday experience that multiracial identity is not only impossible, but self-destructive.

    People are tribal as the norm (race, language, culture) & don't mix. With intransigent & visually different others (Africans, Paki Muslims,..) you got only chaos & destruction; when a crisis hits a society, everybody will fend for its own group, this is normal human tribal behavior. And there have never been crisis-free societies (nor will ever exist).

    As for low-crime, high IQ segments (east Asians, Jews in the US..)- they remain,mostly, foreigners (I mean those who retain their identity). Anti-Semitism is rather strong everywhere because people don't want an alien over-class.

    Then, ethnically "pure" societies like Japan or South Korea are vastly preferable for natives to live in, as different from London & other Calcuttas. A few high-tech advancements don't change much. These are not societies where one could raise his family & have a relaxed stroll in a park. Forced diversity is death. Even natural one is a weakness, hence sensible policy of Singapore elites to keep Singapore solidly Chinese, while not allowing Malays & Indians to demographically overtake them.

    Instead of David Riesman's lonely crowd, ideologically driven diversity produces dystopian collapse & ultimate death of a society.

    Gays ... this issue is not very relevant, in my opinion.
    , @Miro23

    Or could it even be that the badness of the pozz is being overstated? That the multiracial, LGBT-friendly culture is a new viable equilibrium for a human society, rather than being a sign of decline and disintegration?
     
    There's some confusion here. What works for the Google Campus creative intellectual elite is something else. They live in a very special environment that has nothing to do with the lives of most Americans who aren't part of the creative, intellectual elite.

    The missing point is that these people also have lives and families, and want opportunities to develop their more limited abilities - not just be sneered at as "Deplorables" by the people of the New Equilibrium. Community, nation and unity are their protection.

    Truthfully, the New Equilibrium people just find patriotism and the American flag embarassing.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    There may be some negative externalities.

    http://sandrarose.com/2018/03/diversity-fail-women-engineering-team-behind-collapse-miami-pedestrian-bridge/
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  145. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    1. Nature Index - 24 (equivalent to Estonia; but ok, a lot higher than SSA except S. Africa)

    2. Highly cited researchers, top500 supercomputers, sequencers - zero

    3. VC - non-existent in reports; probably a couple of million dollars

    4. Industrial robots - usually a dozen (!) shipments per year. (Russia: A still catastrophic 500). Approximately equal to Africa minus South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.

    So okay, will admit that overall I overdid the Sub-Saharan Africa comparison. Still, the Ukraine is a scientific desert even relative to Russia, which in turn is a scientific desert relative to the West and now China.

    VC – non-existent in reports; probably a couple of million dollars

    $265 million in 2017. Growth has been very high and 2017 is a very different world from 2015:

    http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/490157.html

    Total investment in Ukrainian IT companies reached $265 million in 2017, which is a 3.3-fold increase from 2016, according to a report of AVentures Capital after the publication of the Dealbook of Ukraine drafted in partnership with the Ukrainian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (UVCA), Ukrainian business angels network UAngels and Ukraine Digital News association.

    The largest deals disclosed in 2017 were $110 million of investments in Grammarly (from General Catalyst, IVP and Spark Capital), $30 million in BitFurry (from Credit China Fintech Holdings), $10 million in Petcube (from Almaz Capital, Y Combinator, AVentures Capital, U.Ventures, Digital Future and others) and $7 million in People.ai (from Lightspeed Venture Partners, Index Ventures, Shasta Ventures, Y Combinator and SV Angel).

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Impressive - if the methodology is similar (an admittedly big if), then that would mean Ukraine has converged with Russia (and overtaken it per capita).
    , @Polish Perspective
    That's excellent news. There's a ton of talent in Ukraine and these news just re-confirms it. Which also underlines that while IQ is important, cultural/sociological factors can be equally important and the latter is a bigger influence on Ukraine's economic (mal)performance over the last few decades in my humble opinion. (I never bought the BS that Ukrainians are supposedly "dumber" than Poles).
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  146. @anonymous coward
    Since it looks like there's nobody here with a real technical background and discussion veers towards vapor and hype, let me explain something about so-called "AI":

    "AI" is nothing but a fancy name for what used to be called "applied statistics". Everything about "AI" was already known 40 years ago. What's new today is that we now have GPU's (ironically, invented for playing video games) and statistics can be applied at a truly massive scale.

    (Where before statistics operated with thousands of data points we can now crunch millions and hundreds of millions.)

    Even more ironically, from the point of view of actual science, "AI research" is a regression, not progress. Inferring useful conclusions from hundreds of data points requires complex and nuanced math. When you have millions of data points, you can just throw plain old logistic regressions at the problem (the dumbest tool in the statistician toolbox) and get satisfactory results.

    Modern "AI" "research" consists of low-skilled math graduates cleaning up data manually. (A.k.a. "feature selection".) It's creative work, but certainly not science. 90% of the time it's just blindly trying random features until you hit on something that gives slightly better results.

    P.S. "Deep learning", a.k.a "neural networks" is just the snakeoil name for logistic regression, which dates back to the 1930's.
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    • Replies: @utu
    What is he selling with this BS?
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  147. @Dmitry

    First, you can do a lot more with oil than just use it as transportation fuel. One of my favourite quotes from one of the former IEA executives was that “using oil for cars is like burning Picassos for home heating”. A tongue in cheek statement which nevertheless hints at the enormous versatility of oil and how we are in many ways not using it to its fullest potential. There will be many use cases for oil long into the future, even beyond cars.
     
    Yes it's a witty quote from the executive.

    But not really true - plastics only account for 4% of oil demand.* And in the future it will be more and more possible to recycle plastics.

    Oil will always be necessary in the future. But like most commodities markets, the price fluctuates wildly up and down in response to supply and demand.

    A surplus in supply to demand of a few million barrels of oil a day, can completely crash demand, resulting in kind of low prices occurred during 1990s. In relation to electrification of transport I'll add a comment below.

    *

    http://www.bpf.co.uk/data/content/images/o/oil%20graph.jpg

    Second, even just looking at the immediate next few decades, keep in mind that it takes roughly 20 years to completely change a car fleet and that’s from the moment you get 100% EV sales. The world is currently at 1.3% or so of total new car sales. Even if we assume this will grow by 50% per year, it will still take plenty of years until we get 100% EV sales. And then you need to change the legacy car fleet. The vast bulk of new car sales in developing countries are still ICE vehicles. This will remain true for decades, since they lag behind technologically (save for China). Of course, you can begin to dent prices even before 100% EV sales, but this has to be matched to the fact that you have to service an ever-increasing car fleet – almost all of it coming from developing countries – as an aggregate going forward.
     
    There doesn't have to be total changeover, or even majority changeover, to crash oil prices.

    Average driver uses up maybe 10 barrels of oil a year. So let's say every 36 cars, will displace 1 barrel of oil a day.

    So every 36 million electric cars on road, will displace 1 million barrels of oil per day.

    Last oil price crash in 2014-2016 (which was a small crash - not like the 1980s/1990s oil glut -, but still enough to send economy into recession), was caused by surplus production of 2 million barrels of oil per day, sparked originally by unexpected gains of shale oil industry.

    In order to have similar price crash effect through oil demand, will then require only replacement of 72 million current cars, by electric vehicles.

    In America alone, there are 250 million cars/trucks.

    -

    The other issue to remember is that in the 2030s, there is also possibility of electrification of shipping industry.

    With this in mind, there is very possibility that the 2030s, will be significant oil price crashes occurring, not just like in 2014-2016, but more on the scale of the 1990s.

    -

    This should give a strong urgency to efforts to channel current vast surplus wealth the country enjoys, into efforts for diversification. Otherwise, can see a repeat of what happened as a result (above the political events) of '1980s/1990s oil glut'.

    We have time for a full cycle. I expect another boom before the bust.

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  148. He has an extremely limited understanding of neurology and appears very fond of making statements without no sourcing. Myelination, mirror neurons, neurogenesis, astrocytes, genetically induced autism in monkeys, none of that exists in his world.

    It’s scary to think that there are people who find such a model of the brain to be realistic.

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    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    I think you just have a limited understanding epigenetics. Seriously? genetically induced autism in monkeys? That's from what, 2005?

    Start here: http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/epigenetics/

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-fallible-mind/201701/the-pit-in-your-stomach-is-actually-your-second-brain
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  149. @Anatoly Karlin
    I'd bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.

    I’d bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.

    Yes, but can they fight?

    When was the last time an Icelander won an Olympic gold medal in boxing, wrestling, Judo, or Tae Kwon Do? Or even fencing or a shooting event? I see that they have ONE bronze medal in Judo from 1984 (when the Commie bloc was on boycott, and that bloc was made up of Judo powerhouses).

    Absolute physical strength =/= superior fighting ability.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Reminds of killing last summer of Andrey Drachov.

    He was national weight-lifting champion of Russia and Europe.

    Big weight lifting champion, got into street fight with a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert, and was ass kicked and killed in fight.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpRpeHwANkQ
    , @Spisarevski

    Yes, but can they fight?
     
    Nigerians are not really known for being good fighters either.

    From what I've seen, black people in general move chaotically in hand to hand combat, they flail their hands around and lack efficiency in their moves.
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  150. @Anatoly Karlin
    I'd bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.

    Good point! Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?

    Peace.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?
     
    Guys that big are often surprisingly easy to hurt or even kill.

    A lot of big guys are used to being bullies or avoiding fights through the intimidation factor alone. They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.

    Also, as the saying goes in boxing, speed kills. In real fighting, speed matters more than raw power. In fact, there are several very important "intangible" things in fighting that matter more than more measurable things like power and even speed - timing and distancing, for example, let alone courage and remaining level-headed. And that's just the striking part of the fighting.

    I grew up fighting in pre-Giuliani NYC. Having grown up doing Judo and boxing, I dropped many a large black guys in fights through both punching, kicking, and throwing, mostly because I was FAR more skilled than they were in fighting and because I have an extremely fast reflex (and I am not exactly small - I am 6'2" and 190 lbs. +/_ 10 lbs. over the past 30 years). But, the two worst beatings I ever took were 1) I got mobbed by a large group of black youths once and got stomped pretty badly and 2) I got into a fight with a little Irish guy (probably around 5' 7" and 160 lbs. or so) and in my youthful arrogance underestimated him (I kinda chuckled at him, even). He caught me by surprise by eye-poking me (Jeet Kune Do-style finger jab to the eyes), kicked me in the groin, and then soccer-kicked my head. My friends told me I was out a while.

    I learned my lessons, of course (1. Don't get into a fight with a mob of people and 2. Don't underestimate even the little guy - anyone can drop you if you are careless).

    By the way, check out this video from the dinosaur days of early Brazilian Jujitsu in the U.S. This was a challenge fight between a bodybuilder and Pedro Sauer (a Rickson Gracie black belt whom I know):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL3VzjcptBI
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  151. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    Trees grows from a seed, soil, water, and sunlight.

    The Russian tree isn’t getting proper nutrients from the soil. It’s not getting the proper sunlight and water.

    The problems are deeply cultural, spiritual, and habitual, and they cannot be fixed by bureaucracy or government policies alone. Now, the state can play a very important role, but even the health of the state depends on the culture. Culture shapes the character of those in government. Cultures shapes the character of those in school.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Precisely.

    And...hehe..you'll see how many here will try to reply to your comment.

    Funny, a?
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  152. @Anatoly Karlin
    She just sounds like a parrot.

    Nice, liberal, but not less gullible to kremlin propaganda.

    And I’m not sure it’s common either – some connection between being multimillionaires and being anti-patriotic.

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  153. @Talha
    At the end of the day; what Mr. Karlin noted is still quite important - namely, that those Chinese and Indians want to come to the US and people from the US do not want to go over there.

    If one can win big in culture then one can attract various talented individuals to make up for what one naturally lacks. Almost every Syrian I have come across in the US has been a very successful doctor, businessman, etc. - which sucks for Syria, but what're you gonna do?

    A similar dynamic is at play with Olympic results with the US - we field European women to win the gold in ice hockey, Asian girls for ice skating, and Black men for golds in track and field. Hell, if we can get some Central Asians recruited, we'll do much better in weight-lifting.

    Han people have some great qualities; but put a Han in a cage with a Nigerian - well, my money's not on the Han.

    I remember watching a documentary where they had interviews with Japanese veterans from WW2 who had captured Nigerians fighting for the Brits in the Asian theater (Burma, Thailand, Indo-China, etc.). They were simply amazed at how huge and muscular their captives were and that you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Peace.

    you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.

    Well, digging trenches ain’t fighting.

    Nigerians do well enough in combat sports compared to other Africans – 6 Olympic medals in boxing and 1 in Tae Kwon Do in its history (and 2 in weightlifting).

    Japan, though, has had 84 medals in Judo, 69 in wrestling, 5 in boxing, and 1 in Tae Kwon Do (and 6 in shooting and 5 in archery; and 14 in weightlifting).*

    And Nigeria has 50% greater population than Japan (at least today).

    *The Japanese aren’t the exception among East Asians. South Korea, with only a fraction of the population and dirt poor until the 1970′s, has had 39 medals in archery, 19 in Tae Kwon Do, 43 in Judo, 36 in wrestling, 16 in shooting, 11 in fencing, 20 in boxing, and 15 in weightlifting.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Sure thing, but I was talking about your average Han and average Nigerian.

    If you are talking Olympic level athletes, then I’ll have to think things over before opining. These are quirky things. For instance, I know wrestling is huge in Senegal, but it is not the Greco-Roman kind so they don’t field competitors much at the Olympics.

    My boys took BJJ (Japanese in origin) so I definitely know one can take on someone bigger than them and win if they have the right skill set.

    Peace.
    , @Duke of Qin
    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt. Actual melee battle would have the ebb and flow of an urban riot rather than the titanic clashes depicted in film. It is there were the African would dominate. Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training. Steve Sailer linked to a video where a single African Muslim held at bay a dozen White British police officers even chasing them around as a fox would chickens. The individual Japanese or even a small group would be no match. Guns have historically been the great equalizer.
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  154. @Daniel Chieh
    So when regression analysis from machine learning goes through innumerable genetic markers and finds one that is correlated to decreased performance on Stroop Test(but not IQ), but only if the child is firstborn, thus allowing researchers to investigate if said genetic marker triggers an obscure blood-antigen reaction to cause a negative impact on the executive function of the brain and presumably affects the prefrontal lobe in some fashion...

    Is this science or technology?

    A microscope is not only a tool, but insight into a world previously unseen, isn't it?

    It’s shitty tech. The deepest problem that nobody ever thinks about is the knowledge representation system (science). They all have static/fragile designs that self-crippling in the number of associations that can be built up because it’s just tech. I’ve never seen a neural-network capable of self-reflection and differentiation, among many other conceptual paradoxical forms humans have no problems thinking about.

    For example, if you knew the structural breakdown of the incoming input and have already processed it for the various layers emulating the visual system of the human, you’d already have the post processing structure setup that is required for the “functions” but you’d only need a matching algorithm just like the damn cortical columns that take in the various areas of the visual fields and the vectorized elements coming from the higher stage breakdowns… You end up with 800 million potential elements you can search for a match for, with the right data representation the most basic binary search function you can find your elements down any tree-branch and you’d end up with a few hundred required pattern matching elements you’d always be firing for… i.e. constantly validating the existing visual field for elements of change and identifying them but you’d never have to fire all 800 million unless you somehow shutdown and had to reboot the whole image — and even then you’d really only have to the number of elements in the imagine… This is why I hate CS and AI people, they brute force everything when you can work from a post processing standpoint and at that point you only have rudimentary functions that can easily be parallelized in a GPU/APU even on commodity hardware. The only limitation is that you really have to understand the mesh of representation and functional form that allows you to do *knowledge* based processing without algorithmic complexity…

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  155. @Mike Lee
    This is true. The smartest person currently in A*G*I is this black guy:

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/human-brain-not-intelligence

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/extreme-intelligence-mental-illness-related-autism

    http://culturewhiz.org/forum/topic/summary-most-advanced-medical-research

    What is he selling with this BS?

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    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    What, did I upset you or something? I'm just sick of reading dated crap. Okay?
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  156. @Daniel Chieh
    He has an extremely limited understanding of neurology and appears very fond of making statements without no sourcing. Myelination, mirror neurons, neurogenesis, astrocytes, genetically induced autism in monkeys, none of that exists in his world.

    It's scary to think that there are people who find such a model of the brain to be realistic.

    I think you just have a limited understanding epigenetics. Seriously? genetically induced autism in monkeys? That’s from what, 2005?

    Start here: http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/epigenetics/

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-fallible-mind/201701/the-pit-in-your-stomach-is-actually-your-second-brain

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No, 2016.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/546036/first-monkeys-with-autism-created-in-china/

    Psychology Today, that highly respected website. Let's see what other gems we can dig up:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/parenting-purpose/201803/how-homophobia-keeps-men-and-women-inside-their-gender

    Okay, I'm done with you. Enjoy your trolling and buzzwords.
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  157. @Twinkie

    you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.
     
    Well, digging trenches ain't fighting.

    Nigerians do well enough in combat sports compared to other Africans - 6 Olympic medals in boxing and 1 in Tae Kwon Do in its history (and 2 in weightlifting).

    Japan, though, has had 84 medals in Judo, 69 in wrestling, 5 in boxing, and 1 in Tae Kwon Do (and 6 in shooting and 5 in archery; and 14 in weightlifting).*

    And Nigeria has 50% greater population than Japan (at least today).

    *The Japanese aren't the exception among East Asians. South Korea, with only a fraction of the population and dirt poor until the 1970's, has had 39 medals in archery, 19 in Tae Kwon Do, 43 in Judo, 36 in wrestling, 16 in shooting, 11 in fencing, 20 in boxing, and 15 in weightlifting.

    Sure thing, but I was talking about your average Han and average Nigerian.

    If you are talking Olympic level athletes, then I’ll have to think things over before opining. These are quirky things. For instance, I know wrestling is huge in Senegal, but it is not the Greco-Roman kind so they don’t field competitors much at the Olympics.

    My boys took BJJ (Japanese in origin) so I definitely know one can take on someone bigger than them and win if they have the right skill set.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Sure thing, but I was talking about your average Han and average Nigerian.
     
    I don't know about "your average Han,"* but Judo is nationally practiced at public schools in Japan. I doubt the average Nigerian gets any fighting sports training.

    *China doesn't quite have the same fighting culture that Japan and Korea have. There is a Chinese MMA coach/promoter who has made it his mission to embarrass purveyors of traditional Chinese martial arts. See:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZ6j0i0LxNo

    He's in a bit of hot water from the government in China, which doesn't like aspects of its culture being mocked and exposed as useless.
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  158. @utu
    What is he selling with this BS?

    What, did I upset you or something? I’m just sick of reading dated crap. Okay?

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    Sorry, must be misunderstanding. I was referring to the content of texts you have linked.
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  159. @Twinkie

    I’d bet on the Icelander. They are ridiculously overrepresented in world strongman competitions for a nation of 300,000.
     
    Yes, but can they fight?

    When was the last time an Icelander won an Olympic gold medal in boxing, wrestling, Judo, or Tae Kwon Do? Or even fencing or a shooting event? I see that they have ONE bronze medal in Judo from 1984 (when the Commie bloc was on boycott, and that bloc was made up of Judo powerhouses).

    Absolute physical strength =/= superior fighting ability.

    Reminds of killing last summer of Andrey Drachov.

    He was national weight-lifting champion of Russia and Europe.

    Big weight lifting champion, got into street fight with a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert, and was ass kicked and killed in fight.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert
     
    That wasn't Kung Fu. That was straight-up Karate/Tae Kwon Do/Kickboxing-style kicks. First he threw a roundhouse kick ("Mawashi-geri" in Japanese) and seems to have missed barely, but that allowed him to range his opponent. He followed up with a spinning back kick (which is a very high torque kick - it generates a ridiculous amount of power, far greater than any punch) that connected flush. After that, he was kicking and punching a dead man.

    I saw that footage before. I think that Muslim guy was trained in MMA.
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  160. @Mike Lee
    I think you just have a limited understanding epigenetics. Seriously? genetically induced autism in monkeys? That's from what, 2005?

    Start here: http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/epigenetics/

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-fallible-mind/201701/the-pit-in-your-stomach-is-actually-your-second-brain

    No, 2016.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/546036/first-monkeys-with-autism-created-in-china/

    Psychology Today, that highly respected website. Let’s see what other gems we can dig up:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/parenting-purpose/201803/how-homophobia-keeps-men-and-women-inside-their-gender

    Okay, I’m done with you. Enjoy your trolling and buzzwords.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    Lol @ guy not being aware of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

    I guess this is some old guy so never mind. This is why I hang out with young people under 35. Old people are stuck in the past.

    Thanks,
    Stanford University PhD
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  161. @myself
    Shenzhen-Guangzhou is off to a great start, but it won't be the only, or even necessarily premier urban/sci-tech hub, though it is in the running.

    I think most Mainlanders consider the long-term contest to be between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei complex (the so-called "Jingjinji" region) and the Shanghai-Hangzhou complex.

    These two "regions" are crosses between "megalopolises" and medium-sized "countries" - huge, developing at breakneck velocity and both striving to attract "the best" talent they can. In both cases, increasingly globally. Add in the Shenzhen-Guangzhou region, and you have named all the Tier-One regions of China, at least currently.

    The other metropolises are not to be totally discounted. A lot of less glamorous innovation comes out of them, like genetically engineered hogs and chickens, ultra-high-performance concrete mixes, crops that can grow in desert conditions, anti-pollution, building materials, high-tech fabrics etc. - boring but lucrative stuff, and important to the over-all economy.

    Quite interesting – thank you. And yes, I do agree that the role of undramatic innovations such as the brine-resistant(and hopefully someday, brine-immune) rice breeds have outsized importance without hype.

    Read More
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  162. @Talha
    Good point! Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?

    Peace.

    Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?

    Guys that big are often surprisingly easy to hurt or even kill.

    A lot of big guys are used to being bullies or avoiding fights through the intimidation factor alone. They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.

    Also, as the saying goes in boxing, speed kills. In real fighting, speed matters more than raw power. In fact, there are several very important “intangible” things in fighting that matter more than more measurable things like power and even speed – timing and distancing, for example, let alone courage and remaining level-headed. And that’s just the striking part of the fighting.

    I grew up fighting in pre-Giuliani NYC. Having grown up doing Judo and boxing, I dropped many a large black guys in fights through both punching, kicking, and throwing, mostly because I was FAR more skilled than they were in fighting and because I have an extremely fast reflex (and I am not exactly small – I am 6’2″ and 190 lbs. +/_ 10 lbs. over the past 30 years). But, the two worst beatings I ever took were 1) I got mobbed by a large group of black youths once and got stomped pretty badly and 2) I got into a fight with a little Irish guy (probably around 5′ 7″ and 160 lbs. or so) and in my youthful arrogance underestimated him (I kinda chuckled at him, even). He caught me by surprise by eye-poking me (Jeet Kune Do-style finger jab to the eyes), kicked me in the groin, and then soccer-kicked my head. My friends told me I was out a while.

    I learned my lessons, of course (1. Don’t get into a fight with a mob of people and 2. Don’t underestimate even the little guy – anyone can drop you if you are careless).

    By the way, check out this video from the dinosaur days of early Brazilian Jujitsu in the U.S. This was a challenge fight between a bodybuilder and Pedro Sauer (a Rickson Gracie black belt whom I know):

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha

    They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.
     
    Best experience I got from my Tae Kwon Do days was not that I was really good but the sparring was of tremendous benefit in fighting the fight-or-flight response and knowing how to take a hit and how to keep one’s guard up.

    Even the current young brothers who run the Gracie BJJ franchise having learned from uncles and grandfather say DO NOT get into a fight with a crowd - try to drop the first guy (if you have to) and run.

    Peace.
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  163. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @ThreeCranes
    The records show that a team made up of near-the-best who pull together will outperform a team composed of prima donnas.

    E.g. the British industrial revolution was a joint effort involving inventors, investors, wealthy family sponsors, friends of scientific advancement, business owners and others. It was not merely the works of a few geniuses (though the lens of history all too often distorts by creating one or a few vanishing points in any picture of distant events).

    A crew of eight excellent rowers swinging together in synergistic harmony will beat eight superior oarsmen who haven't trained together. The presence of many minorities in America who disrupt our communal rhythm with their incessant bickering and whining destroys the magic that synergy could work. It sets us at each other's throats and makes it difficult to pass socially beneficial legislation such as universal health care.

    “The records show that a team made up of near-the-best who pull together will outperform a team composed of prima donnas.”

    More bullshit.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616303282

    “The experiments instead showed that higher individual IQ enhances group performance such that individual IQ determined 100% of latent group-IQ. “

    Read More
    • Replies: @ThreeCranes
    You're comparing apples to oranges. The alternative group in the study you cite was a bunch of middling IQ women who buffed their interpersonal skills by taking turns etc. Feelz. Not at all the picture I painted. I'm afraid you're the one shoveling bullshit.

    What I (in effect) said was that a group of very high performers who pulled together would accomplish more than a group of people who had amongst them one or more prima donnas who walked around saying "Hey everybody, look at me, I'm the brainiest but I don't get appreciated for pulling the most weight around here because I'm Asian."

    You might at least read what you put up as evidence.

    There's a difference between getting things done and pure research which has as its goal no aim towards bringing a product to the market. A corporate research department must develop stuff which it can sell. Raw mental horsepower is needed but sterling credentials or a glorious intellectual past history is not enough. A scientist must produce and to do so effectively he must act as part of a research team which has the company's best interests in mind. Intellectual Dennis Rodman's or Randy Mosses or extremely bright slackers who want to sit at their bench and do their own thing will disrupt the chemistry of a group and hurt productivity.

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  164. @Daniel Chieh
    No, 2016.

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/546036/first-monkeys-with-autism-created-in-china/

    Psychology Today, that highly respected website. Let's see what other gems we can dig up:

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/parenting-purpose/201803/how-homophobia-keeps-men-and-women-inside-their-gender

    Okay, I'm done with you. Enjoy your trolling and buzzwords.

    Lol @ guy not being aware of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

    I guess this is some old guy so never mind. This is why I hang out with young people under 35. Old people are stuck in the past.

    Thanks,
    Stanford University PhD

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I should add what this is particularly offensive - right now, there are millions out there who suffer from at least partly genetically related brain issues such as cerebral palsy, Crigler-Najjar syndrome, etc.

    Convincing me is pointless. Help them.

    Its not enough to have a model. Evidence-based medicine is called such for a reason. There's plenty enough medicine that we don't have a good model for, but we have evidence that it works. In the meanwhile, we know that genetic therapy can at least help some cancer patients and I believe that it is ethically sound to do so, and where the evidence leads, we must follow.


    The other research involving modified T-cells to fight cancer doesn’t diminish the impact of Wu’s work, though. In fact, Wu believes the study is one of the most advanced involving CRISPR in China. Currently, Wu’s T-cell treatment is being tested on 21 people with advanced Esophageal cancer that didn’t respond to other treatments. So far, 40 percent of his patients have responded positively to the new treatment.
     
    Someday, I hope that it will allow us to spellcheck brain developmental dysfunctions that are simple enough that we can restore to baseline. Woo woo rambles do not. They leave people to suffer - often many who have otherwise functional brains but suffer reception(esp. auditory) or expression ailments, a terrible fate.
    , @Yan Shen

    Thanks, Stanford University PhD
     
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike_Lee8

    Is this you? :)

    , @utu

    I hang out with young people under 35.
     
    Wha are you going to do when you pass 35? Do you consider self-termination?
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  165. @Twinkie

    Isn’t the guy who plays Gregor Clegane an Icelander?
     
    Guys that big are often surprisingly easy to hurt or even kill.

    A lot of big guys are used to being bullies or avoiding fights through the intimidation factor alone. They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.

    Also, as the saying goes in boxing, speed kills. In real fighting, speed matters more than raw power. In fact, there are several very important "intangible" things in fighting that matter more than more measurable things like power and even speed - timing and distancing, for example, let alone courage and remaining level-headed. And that's just the striking part of the fighting.

    I grew up fighting in pre-Giuliani NYC. Having grown up doing Judo and boxing, I dropped many a large black guys in fights through both punching, kicking, and throwing, mostly because I was FAR more skilled than they were in fighting and because I have an extremely fast reflex (and I am not exactly small - I am 6'2" and 190 lbs. +/_ 10 lbs. over the past 30 years). But, the two worst beatings I ever took were 1) I got mobbed by a large group of black youths once and got stomped pretty badly and 2) I got into a fight with a little Irish guy (probably around 5' 7" and 160 lbs. or so) and in my youthful arrogance underestimated him (I kinda chuckled at him, even). He caught me by surprise by eye-poking me (Jeet Kune Do-style finger jab to the eyes), kicked me in the groin, and then soccer-kicked my head. My friends told me I was out a while.

    I learned my lessons, of course (1. Don't get into a fight with a mob of people and 2. Don't underestimate even the little guy - anyone can drop you if you are careless).

    By the way, check out this video from the dinosaur days of early Brazilian Jujitsu in the U.S. This was a challenge fight between a bodybuilder and Pedro Sauer (a Rickson Gracie black belt whom I know):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL3VzjcptBI

    They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.

    Best experience I got from my Tae Kwon Do days was not that I was really good but the sparring was of tremendous benefit in fighting the fight-or-flight response and knowing how to take a hit and how to keep one’s guard up.

    Even the current young brothers who run the Gracie BJJ franchise having learned from uncles and grandfather say DO NOT get into a fight with a crowd – try to drop the first guy (if you have to) and run.

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Tae Kwon Do
     
    Teaches excellent kicking skills (more speed than power, compared to, say, Muay Thai), but mostly VERY unrealistic due to discouraging punches to the head. It's embarrassing to watch the competitor bounce up and down with their hands by their hips.

    BJJ
     
    I have practiced Brazilian Jujitsu for 20+ years on top of Judo for 40 years. It's a very effective art (despite what they say, it is derived from Kodokan Judo), but most schools encourage too much flopping to the guard, which is generally a bad idea in real fights. You want to keep your mobility and be on top. Even though I am pretty proficient in it, I'd rather throw and drop people on their heads on a hard surface (pavement will do) and move on, in a real fight (of course, these days, I avoid trouble and if I couldn't avoid, evade, or escape, the threat is eating bullets).

    John Danaher, Renzo Gracie black belt, is a fantastic BJJ coach (and former club bouncer in NYC and a one-time philosophy Ph.D. candidate at Columbia), and his analysis of why BJJ is such an effective fight system is excellent, simple, concise, even profound:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BQDJFlPZqY
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  166. @Dmitry
    Reminds of killing last summer of Andrey Drachov.

    He was national weight-lifting champion of Russia and Europe.

    Big weight lifting champion, got into street fight with a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert, and was ass kicked and killed in fight.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpRpeHwANkQ

    a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert

    That wasn’t Kung Fu. That was straight-up Karate/Tae Kwon Do/Kickboxing-style kicks. First he threw a roundhouse kick (“Mawashi-geri” in Japanese) and seems to have missed barely, but that allowed him to range his opponent. He followed up with a spinning back kick (which is a very high torque kick – it generates a ridiculous amount of power, far greater than any punch) that connected flush. After that, he was kicking and punching a dead man.

    I saw that footage before. I think that Muslim guy was trained in MMA.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?
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  167. @Talha

    They are often not used to taking shots to the head and crumble pretty quickly when their noses or orbital bones get cracked.
     
    Best experience I got from my Tae Kwon Do days was not that I was really good but the sparring was of tremendous benefit in fighting the fight-or-flight response and knowing how to take a hit and how to keep one’s guard up.

    Even the current young brothers who run the Gracie BJJ franchise having learned from uncles and grandfather say DO NOT get into a fight with a crowd - try to drop the first guy (if you have to) and run.

    Peace.

    Tae Kwon Do

    Teaches excellent kicking skills (more speed than power, compared to, say, Muay Thai), but mostly VERY unrealistic due to discouraging punches to the head. It’s embarrassing to watch the competitor bounce up and down with their hands by their hips.

    BJJ

    I have practiced Brazilian Jujitsu for 20+ years on top of Judo for 40 years. It’s a very effective art (despite what they say, it is derived from Kodokan Judo), but most schools encourage too much flopping to the guard, which is generally a bad idea in real fights. You want to keep your mobility and be on top. Even though I am pretty proficient in it, I’d rather throw and drop people on their heads on a hard surface (pavement will do) and move on, in a real fight (of course, these days, I avoid trouble and if I couldn’t avoid, evade, or escape, the threat is eating bullets).

    John Danaher, Renzo Gracie black belt, is a fantastic BJJ coach (and former club bouncer in NYC and a one-time philosophy Ph.D. candidate at Columbia), and his analysis of why BJJ is such an effective fight system is excellent, simple, concise, even profound:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    I used to always keep my hands up in a guarding position; saw too many guys get hit in the head with a kick they weren’t expecting - better to be safe than sorry.

    Yeah, I like BJJ a lot and will probably get into it with my son. Nice defensively-postured martial art.

    Hey, by the way and somewhat off topic, a number of Mamluk Asakir facing up against an even number of Samurai (all medieval period) - what’s your money on? I believe they both did face off against the Mongols in roughly the same time period.

    Peace.
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  168. @Twinkie

    a small (very weak looking) Muslim kung fu expert
     
    That wasn't Kung Fu. That was straight-up Karate/Tae Kwon Do/Kickboxing-style kicks. First he threw a roundhouse kick ("Mawashi-geri" in Japanese) and seems to have missed barely, but that allowed him to range his opponent. He followed up with a spinning back kick (which is a very high torque kick - it generates a ridiculous amount of power, far greater than any punch) that connected flush. After that, he was kicking and punching a dead man.

    I saw that footage before. I think that Muslim guy was trained in MMA.

    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?
     
    Who said anything about his religion's relevance to this? Are you punching a straw man?
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  169. @Mike Lee
    Lol @ guy not being aware of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

    I guess this is some old guy so never mind. This is why I hang out with young people under 35. Old people are stuck in the past.

    Thanks,
    Stanford University PhD

    I should add what this is particularly offensive – right now, there are millions out there who suffer from at least partly genetically related brain issues such as cerebral palsy, Crigler-Najjar syndrome, etc.

    Convincing me is pointless. Help them.

    Its not enough to have a model. Evidence-based medicine is called such for a reason. There’s plenty enough medicine that we don’t have a good model for, but we have evidence that it works. In the meanwhile, we know that genetic therapy can at least help some cancer patients and I believe that it is ethically sound to do so, and where the evidence leads, we must follow.

    The other research involving modified T-cells to fight cancer doesn’t diminish the impact of Wu’s work, though. In fact, Wu believes the study is one of the most advanced involving CRISPR in China. Currently, Wu’s T-cell treatment is being tested on 21 people with advanced Esophageal cancer that didn’t respond to other treatments. So far, 40 percent of his patients have responded positively to the new treatment.

    Someday, I hope that it will allow us to spellcheck brain developmental dysfunctions that are simple enough that we can restore to baseline. Woo woo rambles do not. They leave people to suffer – often many who have otherwise functional brains but suffer reception(esp. auditory) or expression ailments, a terrible fate.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    Sorry, none of the stuff you mentioned is going to work. It's all hype. I work in biology and medicine. Even when cancer drugs clearly do work in trials, they often don’t work or work substantially less well in the real world because subjects in trials DO NOT HAVE the same biome. You need to research that. Therapies are frequently approved for use based on clinical trials that can’t actually prove whether they work.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/02/when-evidence-says-no-but-doctors-say-yes/517368/
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  170. @Mike Lee
    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?

    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?

    Who said anything about his religion’s relevance to this? Are you punching a straw man?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    He's being referred to as the "Muslim".
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  171. @Twinkie

    The guy Anar Ziranov was a professional MMA fighter, what difference does his religion make?
     
    Who said anything about his religion's relevance to this? Are you punching a straw man?

    He’s being referred to as the “Muslim”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    He’s being referred to as the “Muslim”.
     
    That's hypersensitivity. The first commenter who linked the video identified him as a "Muslim Kung Fu expert," so I clarified his skillsets and continued to refer to him as "the Muslim guy" for the sake of clarity, not because I think that has anything to do with... anything.

    Ok. That spinning back kick guy. Happy?
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  172. @Mike Lee
    What, did I upset you or something? I'm just sick of reading dated crap. Okay?

    Sorry, must be misunderstanding. I was referring to the content of texts you have linked.

    Read More
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  173. @Talha
    Sure thing, but I was talking about your average Han and average Nigerian.

    If you are talking Olympic level athletes, then I’ll have to think things over before opining. These are quirky things. For instance, I know wrestling is huge in Senegal, but it is not the Greco-Roman kind so they don’t field competitors much at the Olympics.

    My boys took BJJ (Japanese in origin) so I definitely know one can take on someone bigger than them and win if they have the right skill set.

    Peace.

    Sure thing, but I was talking about your average Han and average Nigerian.

    I don’t know about “your average Han,”* but Judo is nationally practiced at public schools in Japan. I doubt the average Nigerian gets any fighting sports training.

    *China doesn’t quite have the same fighting culture that Japan and Korea have. There is a Chinese MMA coach/promoter who has made it his mission to embarrass purveyors of traditional Chinese martial arts. See:

    He’s in a bit of hot water from the government in China, which doesn’t like aspects of its culture being mocked and exposed as useless.

    Read More
    • Replies: @myself
    Well, the Mainland Chinese themselves have long recognized that Traditional "martial arts" are just the Chinese equivalent of acrobatics, ballet and dance - basically not useful in real unarmed combat.

    This point was driven home conclusively to the Chinese during the 19th Century foreign occupations, Opium Wars (both of them), and Boxer Rebellion - when at least a few clueless Chinese sought to pit ballet/acrobatics/dance against the very real wrestling, boxing and brawling skills of Western soldiers. This did not merely show them how useless their "skills" were, it got those Chinese killed.

    "Traditional Martial Arts" in China suffered from a very long period of disuse (about a century of supremacy in their sphere in which no one threatened them, before even the First Opium War), such that it was reduced to cultural expression, sport and art. If all your army does for a century is put down peasants, brigands and rebels, it becomes useless very quickly - in fact that army is better termed "police".

    It's like in the West. Once, we had Knights, now we have Equestrian sports. Where there was sword training, now it's Fencing. Javelins used to be real weapons of war, as were Bows - now they're stripped down into throwing for distance and shooting at a static target. Basically, anyone who had to use those skills for real would have laughed at the modern sport/art versions. THAT is what happened to Chinese Traditional Martial Arts.

    Modern Asian unarmed techniques have actually little to do with the old, tired, artistic versions.

    Modern Japanese Karate was developed in the 19th Century for example. As one Japanese Karateka opined "No master of unarmed combat would be fool enough to take on even a modest user of a Katana". Modern practice in China only began after 1949, and are completely stripped of flash and elegance, but oriented to actual combat, in a battlefield setting - the object being to kill quickly and obtain a rifle.

    By no means an Asian concept - more a general concept of all combatants: "kill quickly then get weapon" makes sense.
    , @Talha
    Yeah - it's kind of sad, but what can you do? One has to adapt - it's the ever-evolving game of survival of the fittest. BJJ took the original Japanese form you mentioned and adapted it to a more brutal, untraditional environment of Brazil.

    The one thing I don't like about what MMA has introduced is a sense of; no quarter is given and none assumed.

    I get that mentality in war, but in peace time it seems one should be able to lose a fight and walk away. Kind of like that Muslim MMA fighter - not sure who started it, but he could have just backed off once it was obvious his opponent was out of the running.

    Maybe I'm just old and this ain't no country (or planet) for old men.

    Peace.
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  174. @Mike Lee
    Lol @ guy not being aware of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

    I guess this is some old guy so never mind. This is why I hang out with young people under 35. Old people are stuck in the past.

    Thanks,
    Stanford University PhD

    Thanks, Stanford University PhD

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike_Lee8

    Is this you? :)

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    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    Ha, people are looking me up now. Yeah, I'm not a terrible person :)
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  175. @Mike Lee
    He's being referred to as the "Muslim".

    He’s being referred to as the “Muslim”.

    That’s hypersensitivity. The first commenter who linked the video identified him as a “Muslim Kung Fu expert,” so I clarified his skillsets and continued to refer to him as “the Muslim guy” for the sake of clarity, not because I think that has anything to do with… anything.

    Ok. That spinning back kick guy. Happy?

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  176. @Daniel Chieh
    I should add what this is particularly offensive - right now, there are millions out there who suffer from at least partly genetically related brain issues such as cerebral palsy, Crigler-Najjar syndrome, etc.

    Convincing me is pointless. Help them.

    Its not enough to have a model. Evidence-based medicine is called such for a reason. There's plenty enough medicine that we don't have a good model for, but we have evidence that it works. In the meanwhile, we know that genetic therapy can at least help some cancer patients and I believe that it is ethically sound to do so, and where the evidence leads, we must follow.


    The other research involving modified T-cells to fight cancer doesn’t diminish the impact of Wu’s work, though. In fact, Wu believes the study is one of the most advanced involving CRISPR in China. Currently, Wu’s T-cell treatment is being tested on 21 people with advanced Esophageal cancer that didn’t respond to other treatments. So far, 40 percent of his patients have responded positively to the new treatment.
     
    Someday, I hope that it will allow us to spellcheck brain developmental dysfunctions that are simple enough that we can restore to baseline. Woo woo rambles do not. They leave people to suffer - often many who have otherwise functional brains but suffer reception(esp. auditory) or expression ailments, a terrible fate.

    Sorry, none of the stuff you mentioned is going to work. It’s all hype. I work in biology and medicine. Even when cancer drugs clearly do work in trials, they often don’t work or work substantially less well in the real world because subjects in trials DO NOT HAVE the same biome. You need to research that. Therapies are frequently approved for use based on clinical trials that can’t actually prove whether they work.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/02/when-evidence-says-no-but-doctors-say-yes/517368/

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Yes, genetics affects nothing. Which is why dog breeds don't exist.

    Look, I haven't dismissed that epigenetics plays a role. However, the idea that genes play a minimal role(which is how epigenetics is often spun these days) is hokum. Genetic expression clearly has more complexity to it that we have yet to learn.

    But it is not magic. The idea that viral exposure cause autism fails to explain why, for example, why males develop autism at much higher rates than females, while Simon Baron-Cohen's model of prenatal testosterone does(and in fact, was later confirmed).

    Technically, one could argue that is epigenetic(its an environmental influence on genetic expression of a fetus, right?). But the cause of that "environment" is due to a genetic expression and that would highly heritable.
    , @utu

    DO NOT HAVE the same biome
     
    So the BIOME is behind everything with you guys: autism, Parkinson,.., intelligence,...

    You should add to the list WWII and Hitler. Hitler's biome was behind it. His biome was OK until his doctor (probably British or Jewish agent) started replacing Hitler's biome with poop tablets form some Bulgarian peasant. And Hitler was turned into a Bulgarian and lost the war. What else would one expect from a Bulgarian peasant?

    Hitler and Bulgarian Peasant Faeces, Anyone?
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/recaps/14-04-2015/national-geographic-hitler-and-bulgarian-peasant-faeces-anyone/
     
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  177. @Mike Lee
    Lol @ guy not being aware of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Microbiome_Project

    I guess this is some old guy so never mind. This is why I hang out with young people under 35. Old people are stuck in the past.

    Thanks,
    Stanford University PhD

    I hang out with young people under 35.

    Wha are you going to do when you pass 35? Do you consider self-termination?

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    • LOL: AP
    • Replies: @Mike Lee
    Luckily here at Stanford the older people are open-minded. So I'm not too worried about that.
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  178. @Twinkie

    Tae Kwon Do
     
    Teaches excellent kicking skills (more speed than power, compared to, say, Muay Thai), but mostly VERY unrealistic due to discouraging punches to the head. It's embarrassing to watch the competitor bounce up and down with their hands by their hips.

    BJJ
     
    I have practiced Brazilian Jujitsu for 20+ years on top of Judo for 40 years. It's a very effective art (despite what they say, it is derived from Kodokan Judo), but most schools encourage too much flopping to the guard, which is generally a bad idea in real fights. You want to keep your mobility and be on top. Even though I am pretty proficient in it, I'd rather throw and drop people on their heads on a hard surface (pavement will do) and move on, in a real fight (of course, these days, I avoid trouble and if I couldn't avoid, evade, or escape, the threat is eating bullets).

    John Danaher, Renzo Gracie black belt, is a fantastic BJJ coach (and former club bouncer in NYC and a one-time philosophy Ph.D. candidate at Columbia), and his analysis of why BJJ is such an effective fight system is excellent, simple, concise, even profound:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BQDJFlPZqY

    I used to always keep my hands up in a guarding position; saw too many guys get hit in the head with a kick they weren’t expecting – better to be safe than sorry.

    Yeah, I like BJJ a lot and will probably get into it with my son. Nice defensively-postured martial art.

    Hey, by the way and somewhat off topic, a number of Mamluk Asakir facing up against an even number of Samurai (all medieval period) – what’s your money on? I believe they both did face off against the Mongols in roughly the same time period.

    Peace.

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  179. @Twinkie

    you could get the physical work out of one Nigerian about the same as like 3 or 4 Japanese.
     
    Well, digging trenches ain't fighting.

    Nigerians do well enough in combat sports compared to other Africans - 6 Olympic medals in boxing and 1 in Tae Kwon Do in its history (and 2 in weightlifting).

    Japan, though, has had 84 medals in Judo, 69 in wrestling, 5 in boxing, and 1 in Tae Kwon Do (and 6 in shooting and 5 in archery; and 14 in weightlifting).*

    And Nigeria has 50% greater population than Japan (at least today).

    *The Japanese aren't the exception among East Asians. South Korea, with only a fraction of the population and dirt poor until the 1970's, has had 39 medals in archery, 19 in Tae Kwon Do, 43 in Judo, 36 in wrestling, 16 in shooting, 11 in fencing, 20 in boxing, and 15 in weightlifting.

    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt. Actual melee battle would have the ebb and flow of an urban riot rather than the titanic clashes depicted in film. It is there were the African would dominate. Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training. Steve Sailer linked to a video where a single African Muslim held at bay a dozen White British police officers even chasing them around as a fox would chickens. The individual Japanese or even a small group would be no match. Guns have historically been the great equalizer.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt. Actual melee battle would have the ebb and flow of an urban riot rather than the titanic clashes depicted in film
     
    You image sounds something like a typical foot ball fans.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWKwGNe30mg

    . It is there were the African would dominate. Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training. Steve Sailer linked to a video where a single African Muslim held at bay a dozen White British police officers even chasing them around as a fox would chickens. The individual Japanese or even a small group would be no match. Guns have historically been the great equalizer.
     
    It's not true though. The Romans had repeatedly crushed any less organized peoples. In Ancient War, organization was perhaps as important, or more important, than in modern war.
    , @Twinkie

    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt.
     
    You've never boxed, wrestled, or done Judo, have you?

    This is what happens when one guy has boxing training (Asian guy in the video) and the other guy thinks he knows how to fight (black guy):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiqCLm5P_F4

    Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training.
     
    Men without training have a lot of fear. It's training that gives you the "peace of mind," because you are used to pain and dealing with a live, fully-resisting opponent. Even "modest" training, if it's in something effective like boxing, wrestling, or Judo (or non-Olympic sports such as Muay Thai and BJJ) will prepare you well against someone who has none.

    And "primal aggression" - fighting like an animal - gets you in trouble with people who know what they are doing. Untrained people often close their eyes (or flinch a lot) and throw windmill punches at their opponents. If you have decent striking training, you can crack them easily. And if you have grappling training, that untrained guy is going to be thrown on his head and throttled.

    Guns have historically been the great equalizer.
     
    Except shooting guns is a very high visuo-spatial IQ-loaded activity (as well as one that rewards calmness/breath-control). There is a reason why Europeans and East Asians dominate shooting sports (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_at_the_Summer_Olympics#Medal_table). And I am not even getting into group tactics, which requires organization and training in which, again, the two groups far out-do Africans.

    Actual melee battle
     
    I would put my money on Koreans in a melee battle, not Africans of any sort:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbFSVh1mmiw&t

    By the way, at one point in the training, the OPFOR actually throws real Molotov cocktails at the riot police trainees! There is NO freakin' way that kind of training happens in the West. Someone could get burnt!
    , @Jaakko Raipala
    You can't use the British police as an example of ineffectiveness of organized violence when they're rarely allowed to use any violence at all. Of course they're going to be standing there like idiots when they're supposed to arrest a violent man without using violence. You can find videos of British police having trouble with children, women and elderly who refuse to comply with orders.

    In a non-PC society like Apartheid era South Africa, much of Eastern Europe or China you'd just see the white/Asian police beat up disorganized individual blacks with impunity. In Britain you not only have the most strict rules of engagement for police offers, they've been undergoing decades of a de facto purge of the police force where the regular man has been driven out in favor of women and soft men with pro-homosexual, pro-multiculturalism views so of course they're going to be ineffective at violence.

    The ancient Romans had their gladiators who were slaves trained and experienced in one-on-one or small scale combat for the amusement of the free citizenry. There were several gladiator slave rebellions in which the gladiators would prove themselves much better than Roman soldiers when engaging one-on-one when very small forces clashed but in large scale combat Roman legionnaires trained in formations and the like would crush any force of gladiators. Organization even back then ultimately beat the lone warrior skilled in one-on-one combat.
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  180. @Yan Shen

    Thanks, Stanford University PhD
     
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike_Lee8

    Is this you? :)

    Ha, people are looking me up now. Yeah, I’m not a terrible person :)

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  181. @Duke of Qin
    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt. Actual melee battle would have the ebb and flow of an urban riot rather than the titanic clashes depicted in film. It is there were the African would dominate. Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training. Steve Sailer linked to a video where a single African Muslim held at bay a dozen White British police officers even chasing them around as a fox would chickens. The individual Japanese or even a small group would be no match. Guns have historically been the great equalizer.

    Those are all sports, not combat. They have rules on top of rules built on pointless tradition all with the knowledge that no one is getting hurt. Actual melee battle would have the ebb and flow of an urban riot rather than the titanic clashes depicted in film

    You image sounds something like a typical foot ball fans.

    . It is there were the African would dominate. Fearlessness and primal aggression both psychological traits trump modest training. Steve Sailer linked to a video where a single African Muslim held at bay a dozen White British police officers even chasing them around as a fox would chickens. The individual Japanese or even a small group would be no match. Guns have historically been the great equalizer.

    It’s not true though. The Romans had repeatedly crushed any less organized peoples. In Ancient War, organization was perhaps as important, or more important, than in modern war.

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    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    Most of what is written about Roman warfare is simply wrong because of faulty assumptions of what melee battle is really like. The explanation is long in the telling. Suffice it to say it wasn't specifically Roman training that carried the day but group cohesion and mob impetus. In addition the ability to sustain casualties where others would have fled. Individually the Roman didn't have the proficiency for violence as his Celt, German, or Numidian counterpart, but the Roman Army could still carry the day because they were simply less likely to fleet at the first significant casualties began to mount.
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  182. @utu

    I hang out with young people under 35.
     
    Wha are you going to do when you pass 35? Do you consider self-termination?

    Luckily here at Stanford the older people are open-minded. So I’m not too worried about that.

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  183. @Mitchell Porter
    It's a complicated world, always moving in several directions at once... America and Britain are very troubled societies in many ways, contain so many trends that ought to be bad for the long term - and yet the anglosphere still has this enormous lead in science, and specifically in artificial intelligence.

    Consider California. Almost half the population don't speak English at home, many Americans would fight to prevent their own state becoming like California, and the state is perpetually at odds with the new national government - and yet it is also home to these ultra-rich goliaths of AI research.

    Or London! Native population being replaced by post-imperial immigrants, tightly surveilled scene of terror attacks, but also home of Deep Mind, which has been producing some of the most alarming advances in AI.

    China surely has a chance to be the place where superhuman AI is first produced, but America is unquestionably still in the lead. Along with all that native and imported brainpower, Americans seem uniquely willing to form radical technological subcultures that embrace the replacement of natural humanity with something else.

    So it makes me wonder how this coexists with all those supposedly deleterious trends like progressivism, indiscriminate immigration, and the formation of a liberal/Jewish/globalist elite.

    Is the American lead due to a legacy built up before the bad trends took over? Is the badness of the trends overstated - might they just be superficial troubles, rather than harbingers of America turning into Venezuela-with-nukes?

    Could they actually be of a piece with the futurist technological drive? Is an elite that is willing to fight its own legacy citizens, for the right to bring in millions of foreigners, just displaying the same extraordinary hubris and ruthless ambition required to spy on the whole world or commodify life itself?

    Or could it even be that the badness of the pozz is being overstated? That the multiracial, LGBT-friendly culture is a new viable equilibrium for a human society, rather than being a sign of decline and disintegration?

    Or London! Native population being replaced by post-imperial immigrants, tightly surveilled scene of terror attacks, but also home of Deep Mind, which has been producing some of the most alarming advances in AI.

    One of the founders (the AI genius) of DeepMind has a Chinese Singaporean mother and a Greek Cypriot father:

    Another founder has a Syrian taxi driver father and English nurse mother (Steve Jobs father was a Syrian muslim as well):