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Some of the good guys hope and some of the bad guys fear that it is a prelude to recognition of the LDNR.

Some of the good guys fear and some of the bad guys hope that it is a prelude to the final stage of Putinsliv.

Reality – zero geopolitical significance whatsoever. If there was a serious plan to annex those regions, there would be a mass Russian passport giveaway. In reality, getting a Russian passport is hellishly difficult, even for ethnic Russian refugees in Russia. Astoundingly, there are frequent scandals in which paper-pushing bureaucrats attempt to deport former Donbass militiamen back to Ukraine… and the loving embrace of the SBU. Even the wording of Putin’s ukaz is completely cucked: “Documents handed out to Ukrainian citizens and people without citizenship by organs/organizations that exist in specific regions of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts.

In reality, this is just a modest step humanitarian step in the Donbass, where more and more people are falling into an “undocumented” state due to the difficulty of getting documents from Ukraine. It is the very least that Russia could do for the people who rose in its support and it is shamefully overdue.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Novorossiya, Russia 
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  1. Anatoly, why do you think Russia doesn’t hand out passports to any `Ukrainian’ who wants to live and work here? Is this primarily a diplomatic issue? For example, Russia recognizes multiple citizenship, Ukraine doesn’t. This would certainly be better for social cohesion than importing labour from Central Asia (and I say this despite my personal affection for Central Asians). If you were feeling radical, and think there is a good economic argument for bringing in intelligent and adaptable immigrants, I think you could extend the passport offer even more broadly to all Slavs above some threshold in education. They all seem to fit in here quite comfortably, even ones whom you don’t expect to have a particular affection for Russians. It seems that the ones who are willing to come here don’t have axes to grind.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Ultimately, it comes down to the banal fact that the Russian Federation is not a national Russian state and sees no cardinal difference between a Donbass Russian and a Tajik.

    Not that I have anything against Tajiks, but a workforce increasingly composed of 80 IQ Muslims is not conductive to automation or long-term stability and prosperity. Russia needs a Trumpian wall with Central Asia.
    , @Zenarchy
    True.
    Slavs who are willing to go to Russia generally adapt really well. Of course, you have what I call 3 temperaments (I hope Anatoly will correct me if I'm wrong):
    1. Northern Russians: Slavic + Scandinavian influence (a bit cold/reserved)
    2. Most Slavs - up (down) to Northern Croatia
    3. Most Southern Slavs - who, despite languages, have only between 25 and 40 percent of Slavic ancestry and thus much more native Balkan blood, for millenia known for hotheadedness, aggressiveness, etc: Southern Croats (Dalmatians), Bosnians, Serbs, Montenegrins, Macedonians, Bulgarians. These are temperamentally the furthest from Russians, but the last 4 are Orthodox Christian, and on top of that Serbs have been friendly with Russians since volunteering to protect Russia from Napoleon.
    , @Boris N
    Because the modern Russian state does not have any reasonable migration policy, or any migration policy at all. And the government and the elites do not care or rather they wholeheartedly support the current policy of lawlessness and open borders with Asia.

    Compare this lack of any policy with other migration havens like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, not to mention the USA. They have a very elaborate and strict migration policies and rules, definitely closed borders and a full and strict control on migration. And even when they have "skilled migration" programs there are a lot, a lot of bureaucracy, that means if you want to migrate to those "migration friendly" countries you most probably couldn't or would face a lot of paperwork. To get into the USA is even more difficult, the USA have no any migration programs, the most probable if not only guaranteed scenario is to have a family there which obviously most people on Earth do not have. The H-1B and similar is really a joke, every country have such temporary employer sponsored visas, the USA is no different and no more migrant friendly than others, in spite of what many Americans whine about. America in fact is a very closed country, you cannot simply go to live and work there freely and indefinitely.

    So let return to Russia, where Asians even do not need a visa and any paperwork, they just buy a ticket and travel from their dirty kishlaks directly to Moscow and live 90 days freely, during which most of them work illegally. Then they go back home for holidays and return to live/work for other 90 days. Of course, some of them want to do all legally, they buy "patents". But I repeat it is a "patent", not a visa, these patents even do not require to have a sponsor like in America. They just collect some documents and literally officially buy the working permit. It's not even any close to the bureaucracy and paperwork in America, especially bearing in mind the level of corruption in Russian where buying any fake document or reference is no big deal. Of course, everybody, except Russians, are happy: crooked businessmen save on wages and taxes, ethnic mafias and diasporas have their share from controlling migrants and providing fake documents, the corrupted state officials and clerks have their bribes, the anti-Russian government have the population being de-Russified and Asianized, migrants and their families have their daily bread, and the crooked Asiatic despots have dumped the social problems of their countries on somebody else's country. Perfect symbiosis. So why do they need to change anything? Particularly if it will ease the fate of the Russians living abroad. They hate Russians.
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  2. @The Big Red Scary
    Anatoly, why do you think Russia doesn't hand out passports to any `Ukrainian' who wants to live and work here? Is this primarily a diplomatic issue? For example, Russia recognizes multiple citizenship, Ukraine doesn't. This would certainly be better for social cohesion than importing labour from Central Asia (and I say this despite my personal affection for Central Asians). If you were feeling radical, and think there is a good economic argument for bringing in intelligent and adaptable immigrants, I think you could extend the passport offer even more broadly to all Slavs above some threshold in education. They all seem to fit in here quite comfortably, even ones whom you don't expect to have a particular affection for Russians. It seems that the ones who are willing to come here don't have axes to grind.

    Ultimately, it comes down to the banal fact that the Russian Federation is not a national Russian state and sees no cardinal difference between a Donbass Russian and a Tajik.

    Not that I have anything against Tajiks, but a workforce increasingly composed of 80 IQ Muslims is not conductive to automation or long-term stability and prosperity. Russia needs a Trumpian wall with Central Asia.

    Read More
  3. Zenarchy says:
    @The Big Red Scary
    Anatoly, why do you think Russia doesn't hand out passports to any `Ukrainian' who wants to live and work here? Is this primarily a diplomatic issue? For example, Russia recognizes multiple citizenship, Ukraine doesn't. This would certainly be better for social cohesion than importing labour from Central Asia (and I say this despite my personal affection for Central Asians). If you were feeling radical, and think there is a good economic argument for bringing in intelligent and adaptable immigrants, I think you could extend the passport offer even more broadly to all Slavs above some threshold in education. They all seem to fit in here quite comfortably, even ones whom you don't expect to have a particular affection for Russians. It seems that the ones who are willing to come here don't have axes to grind.

    True.
    Slavs who are willing to go to Russia generally adapt really well. Of course, you have what I call 3 temperaments (I hope Anatoly will correct me if I’m wrong):
    1. Northern Russians: Slavic + Scandinavian influence (a bit cold/reserved)
    2. Most Slavs – up (down) to Northern Croatia
    3. Most Southern Slavs – who, despite languages, have only between 25 and 40 percent of Slavic ancestry and thus much more native Balkan blood, for millenia known for hotheadedness, aggressiveness, etc: Southern Croats (Dalmatians), Bosnians, Serbs, Montenegrins, Macedonians, Bulgarians. These are temperamentally the furthest from Russians, but the last 4 are Orthodox Christian, and on top of that Serbs have been friendly with Russians since volunteering to protect Russia from Napoleon.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    If seems that the non-Slavic component in northern Russians is genetically most similar to the three modern Baltic states.

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically. And the largely Finnic-speaking people with whom Slavs mixed in what's now northern Russia were of that modern-Baltic-state type.

    At least that's what it looks like here:

    https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/824232912321056768

  4. Glossy says: • Website
    @Zenarchy
    True.
    Slavs who are willing to go to Russia generally adapt really well. Of course, you have what I call 3 temperaments (I hope Anatoly will correct me if I'm wrong):
    1. Northern Russians: Slavic + Scandinavian influence (a bit cold/reserved)
    2. Most Slavs - up (down) to Northern Croatia
    3. Most Southern Slavs - who, despite languages, have only between 25 and 40 percent of Slavic ancestry and thus much more native Balkan blood, for millenia known for hotheadedness, aggressiveness, etc: Southern Croats (Dalmatians), Bosnians, Serbs, Montenegrins, Macedonians, Bulgarians. These are temperamentally the furthest from Russians, but the last 4 are Orthodox Christian, and on top of that Serbs have been friendly with Russians since volunteering to protect Russia from Napoleon.

    If seems that the non-Slavic component in northern Russians is genetically most similar to the three modern Baltic states.

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically. And the largely Finnic-speaking people with whom Slavs mixed in what’s now northern Russia were of that modern-Baltic-state type.

    At least that’s what it looks like here:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Boris N

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically.
     
    I do not like very much the modern frenzy about genetics and I'm not going to contradict those maps, but I believe all three republics are slightly different. Estonia and Lithuania are two poles, Latvia being in between. Half of Latvia, including Riga, was once Finnish-speaking some thousand or so years ago (the Livs are the remnants of that population), while Estonia and Lithuania must have been Finnish and Baltic respectively for millennia. Not sure why on those maps (by the Balanovskys, by the way) Estonians and Lithuanians are colored the same. Probably this predates the language divide between Finno-Ugrians and Indo-Europeans. Also note the lack of correlation between languages and genes. Estonians, according to the maps, do not share their genes with the Erzya-Moksha, Komi, Khanty and Mansi, and most strikingly with the Finns.
    , @Boris N
    Original maps:
    http://генофонд.рф/?page_id=5412
    http://генофонд.рф/?page_id=1774
  5. Boris N says:
    @The Big Red Scary
    Anatoly, why do you think Russia doesn't hand out passports to any `Ukrainian' who wants to live and work here? Is this primarily a diplomatic issue? For example, Russia recognizes multiple citizenship, Ukraine doesn't. This would certainly be better for social cohesion than importing labour from Central Asia (and I say this despite my personal affection for Central Asians). If you were feeling radical, and think there is a good economic argument for bringing in intelligent and adaptable immigrants, I think you could extend the passport offer even more broadly to all Slavs above some threshold in education. They all seem to fit in here quite comfortably, even ones whom you don't expect to have a particular affection for Russians. It seems that the ones who are willing to come here don't have axes to grind.

    Because the modern Russian state does not have any reasonable migration policy, or any migration policy at all. And the government and the elites do not care or rather they wholeheartedly support the current policy of lawlessness and open borders with Asia.

    Compare this lack of any policy with other migration havens like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, not to mention the USA. They have a very elaborate and strict migration policies and rules, definitely closed borders and a full and strict control on migration. And even when they have “skilled migration” programs there are a lot, a lot of bureaucracy, that means if you want to migrate to those “migration friendly” countries you most probably couldn’t or would face a lot of paperwork. To get into the USA is even more difficult, the USA have no any migration programs, the most probable if not only guaranteed scenario is to have a family there which obviously most people on Earth do not have. The H-1B and similar is really a joke, every country have such temporary employer sponsored visas, the USA is no different and no more migrant friendly than others, in spite of what many Americans whine about. America in fact is a very closed country, you cannot simply go to live and work there freely and indefinitely.

    So let return to Russia, where Asians even do not need a visa and any paperwork, they just buy a ticket and travel from their dirty kishlaks directly to Moscow and live 90 days freely, during which most of them work illegally. Then they go back home for holidays and return to live/work for other 90 days. Of course, some of them want to do all legally, they buy “patents”. But I repeat it is a “patent”, not a visa, these patents even do not require to have a sponsor like in America. They just collect some documents and literally officially buy the working permit. It’s not even any close to the bureaucracy and paperwork in America, especially bearing in mind the level of corruption in Russian where buying any fake document or reference is no big deal. Of course, everybody, except Russians, are happy: crooked businessmen save on wages and taxes, ethnic mafias and diasporas have their share from controlling migrants and providing fake documents, the corrupted state officials and clerks have their bribes, the anti-Russian government have the population being de-Russified and Asianized, migrants and their families have their daily bread, and the crooked Asiatic despots have dumped the social problems of their countries on somebody else’s country. Perfect symbiosis. So why do they need to change anything? Particularly if it will ease the fate of the Russians living abroad. They hate Russians.

    Read More
  6. Boris N says:
    @Glossy
    If seems that the non-Slavic component in northern Russians is genetically most similar to the three modern Baltic states.

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically. And the largely Finnic-speaking people with whom Slavs mixed in what's now northern Russia were of that modern-Baltic-state type.

    At least that's what it looks like here:

    https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/824232912321056768

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically.

    I do not like very much the modern frenzy about genetics and I’m not going to contradict those maps, but I believe all three republics are slightly different. Estonia and Lithuania are two poles, Latvia being in between. Half of Latvia, including Riga, was once Finnish-speaking some thousand or so years ago (the Livs are the remnants of that population), while Estonia and Lithuania must have been Finnish and Baltic respectively for millennia. Not sure why on those maps (by the Balanovskys, by the way) Estonians and Lithuanians are colored the same. Probably this predates the language divide between Finno-Ugrians and Indo-Europeans. Also note the lack of correlation between languages and genes. Estonians, according to the maps, do not share their genes with the Erzya-Moksha, Komi, Khanty and Mansi, and most strikingly with the Finns.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
    Well, I can see where this pattern comes from. This is not a map of genetic closeness but a map of the presence of a few select Y DNA markers called haplogroups and the green area is *exactly* where you can find *both* haplogroup N1c (typical of Finno-Ugric and to some extent Turkic populations) and haplogroup R1a (typical of Indo-European and in particular Balto-Slavic populations) in significant proportions.

    The reason there is a sharp distinction to Finland is because while Finns are really high in N1c, R1a is almost non-existent in ethnic Finns (though shows up in the Swedish minority). Estonians however do have a significant proportion of R1a in addition to N1c. So a plausible explanation for this pattern is that the green is the area of mixed a Finnic + Balto-Slavic profile which sharply drops off as you go to either those Finno-Ugric populations that lack Indo-European Y admixture (like Finns) or to the Indo-European populations that lack Finno-Ugric admixture (like Poles etc).

    There are other possibilities, of course, since this easy identification of genes with language families may not be entirely true - there are likely pre-historic peoples that we don't know about who could have moved genes around. In any case, remember that this is just an Y chromosome study and not a study of the whole genome. In fact one reason people study the Y chromosome lineages is *because* the Y chromosome carries so few meaningful genes that mutations in it are usually neutral so natural selection doesn't influence the proportions. Thus they're more likely to be traces of ancient population movements than traits like skin color that can come under rapid natural selection after a migration.

    There are of course obvious downsides to chromosome lineages that are simply inherited from father to son as it automatically misses what's going on with the female part of the population. So you can find for example Latin American countries where the Y DNA profile is almost entirely Spanish but when you look at the population you can see that they're not genetically very European. Or you could look compare Y DNA profiles and find out that the closest Y profile matches to Balto-Slavic peoples are generally upper cast Aryans from India while the closest Y DNA profile match to Finns would be Yakuts - examples of how Y haplogroup profiles easily get divorced from phenotype or genetic relatedness.

  7. Boris N says:
    @Glossy
    If seems that the non-Slavic component in northern Russians is genetically most similar to the three modern Baltic states.

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically. And the largely Finnic-speaking people with whom Slavs mixed in what's now northern Russia were of that modern-Baltic-state type.

    At least that's what it looks like here:

    https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/824232912321056768

    Read More
  8. @Boris N

    Estonians speak a Finnic language while Latvians and Lithuanians speak Indo-European ones, but those three peoples are very similar genetically.
     
    I do not like very much the modern frenzy about genetics and I'm not going to contradict those maps, but I believe all three republics are slightly different. Estonia and Lithuania are two poles, Latvia being in between. Half of Latvia, including Riga, was once Finnish-speaking some thousand or so years ago (the Livs are the remnants of that population), while Estonia and Lithuania must have been Finnish and Baltic respectively for millennia. Not sure why on those maps (by the Balanovskys, by the way) Estonians and Lithuanians are colored the same. Probably this predates the language divide between Finno-Ugrians and Indo-Europeans. Also note the lack of correlation between languages and genes. Estonians, according to the maps, do not share their genes with the Erzya-Moksha, Komi, Khanty and Mansi, and most strikingly with the Finns.

    Well, I can see where this pattern comes from. This is not a map of genetic closeness but a map of the presence of a few select Y DNA markers called haplogroups and the green area is *exactly* where you can find *both* haplogroup N1c (typical of Finno-Ugric and to some extent Turkic populations) and haplogroup R1a (typical of Indo-European and in particular Balto-Slavic populations) in significant proportions.

    The reason there is a sharp distinction to Finland is because while Finns are really high in N1c, R1a is almost non-existent in ethnic Finns (though shows up in the Swedish minority). Estonians however do have a significant proportion of R1a in addition to N1c. So a plausible explanation for this pattern is that the green is the area of mixed a Finnic + Balto-Slavic profile which sharply drops off as you go to either those Finno-Ugric populations that lack Indo-European Y admixture (like Finns) or to the Indo-European populations that lack Finno-Ugric admixture (like Poles etc).

    There are other possibilities, of course, since this easy identification of genes with language families may not be entirely true – there are likely pre-historic peoples that we don’t know about who could have moved genes around. In any case, remember that this is just an Y chromosome study and not a study of the whole genome. In fact one reason people study the Y chromosome lineages is *because* the Y chromosome carries so few meaningful genes that mutations in it are usually neutral so natural selection doesn’t influence the proportions. Thus they’re more likely to be traces of ancient population movements than traits like skin color that can come under rapid natural selection after a migration.

    There are of course obvious downsides to chromosome lineages that are simply inherited from father to son as it automatically misses what’s going on with the female part of the population. So you can find for example Latin American countries where the Y DNA profile is almost entirely Spanish but when you look at the population you can see that they’re not genetically very European. Or you could look compare Y DNA profiles and find out that the closest Y profile matches to Balto-Slavic peoples are generally upper cast Aryans from India while the closest Y DNA profile match to Finns would be Yakuts – examples of how Y haplogroup profiles easily get divorced from phenotype or genetic relatedness.

    Read More

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