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The final figures for life expectancy and TFR in total and for the regions have been released today.

The Rosstat computations give an estimate of TFR = 1.76 children per woman and LE = 71.9 years for 2016, which are pretty close to my rough estimates a month ago.

The total population is estimated to be 146,804,372 at the end of the year.

Not really much extra to comment on than what I already have in February.

One thing of note is that Crimea has by now been fully integrated into the statistics so we can begin to analyze how its doing after liberation from the yoke of Ukrainian backwardness.

For instance, in terms of disposable income, Crimea remains well behind almost all majority ethnic Russian regions, including neighboring Krasnodar Krai (which became post-Soviet Russia’s main breachfront location). However, it is also converging quickly. Although Russia was in a recession during 2016, with only 0.7% growth in disposable incomes (-5.4% inflation), Crimea and Sevastopol both grew by more than 15% – the fastest rate of increase in Russia.

Ukraine was, of course, also in recession during this period.

The fertility rate in Crimea and Sevastopol has also increased since 2014, which you presumably wouldn’t expect of regions under brutal occupation.

TFR

TFR 2013 2014 2015 2016
Russian Federation 1.707 1.750 1.777 1.762
Central Federal District 1.478 1.514 1.575 1.595
Belgorod Oblast 1.526 1.544 1.561 1.547
Bryansk Oblast 1.534 1.557 1.650 1.612
Vladimir Oblast 1.591 1.643 1.730 1.712
Voronezh Oblast 1.437 1.471 1.517 1.484
Ivanovo Oblast 1.554 1.572 1.629 1.595
Kaluga Oblast 1.644 1.689 1.836 1.785
Kostroma Oblast 1.852 1.866 1.890 1.880
Kursk Oblast 1.674 1.699 1.716 1.643
Lipetsk Oblast 1.601 1.657 1.700 1.687
Moscow Oblast 1.522 1.600 1.675 1.727
Orel Oblast 1.530 1.552 1.603 1.590
Ryazan Oblast 1.552 1.595 1.640 1.703
Smolensk Oblast 1.480 1.528 1.522 1.509
Tambov Oblast 1.423 1.493 1.512 1.503
Tver Oblast 1.639 1.663 1.696 1.709
Tula Oblast 1.424 1.466 1.568 1.547
Yaroslavl Oblast 1.635 1.640 1.695 1.710
Moscow 1.328 1.341 1.406 1.460
North-West Federal District 1.574 1.613 1.657 1.670
Republic of Karelia 1.648 1.744 1.766 1.763
Komi Republic 1.961 2.013 2.002 1.972
Arkhangelsk Oblast 1.803 1.835 1.847 1.833
of which:
_Nenets Autonomous Okrug 2.312 2.423 2.584 2.774
_Arkhangelsk Oblast 1.784 1.812 1.818 1.795
Vologda Oblast 1.852 1.856 1.922 1.897
Kaliningrad Oblast 1.644 1.699 1.745 1.728
Leningrad Oblast 1.227 1.282 1.286 1.318
Murmansk Oblast 1.623 1.649 1.714 1.653
Novgorod Oblast 1.700 1.749 1.776 1.776
Pskov Oblast 1.675 1.695 1.741 1.796
St. Petersburg 1.482 1.522 1.591 1.634
Southern Federal District 1.642 1,711 1 1,735 1 1.719
Republic of Adygea 1.684 1.730 1.724 1.681
Republic of Kalmykia 1.882 1.853 1.831 1.708
Krasnodar Krai 1.825 1.818 1.763
Republic of Crimea 1.724 1.805 1.840 1.829
Astrakhan Oblast 1.911 1.968 1.970 1.938
Volgograd Oblast 1.529 1.571 1.589 1.574
Rostov Oblast 1.522 1.605 1.627 1.596
Sevastopol 1.649 1.821 1.726
North Caucasus Federal District 1.987 2.034 1.979 1.936
Dagestan Republic 2.015 2.077 2.022 1.978
Republic of Ingushetia 2.231 2.278 1.971 1.752
Kabardino-Balkar Republic 1.803 1.831 1.753 1.724
Karachay–Cherkessia 1.673 1.650 1.541 1.518
Republic of North Ossetia – Alania 1.977 2.009 1.930 1.891
Chechen Republic 2.925 2.912 2.799 2.622
Stavropol Krai 1.548 1.617 1.644 1.678
Volga Federal District 1.750 1.789 1.818 1.788
Republic of Bashkortostan 1.887 1.948 1.939 1.860
Republic of Mari El 1.926 1.981 1.993 1.980
Republic of Mordovia 1.366 1.374 1.360 1.403
Republic of Tatarstan 1.832 1.844 1.863 1.855
Udmurt Republic 1.922 1.959 2.006 1.956
Chuvash Republic 1.851 1.878 1.909 1.869
Perm Krai 1.932 1.977 2.018 1.979
Kirov Oblast 1.868 1.885 1.913 1.943
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast 1.561 1.593 1.669 1.649
Orenburg Oblast 2.001 2.027 2.013 1.946
Penza Oblast 1.486 1.529 1.550 1.503
Samara Oblast 1.589 1.647 1.708 1.714
Saratov Oblast 1.536 1.574 1.601 1.550
Ulyanovsk Oblast 1.611 1.673 1.712 1.705
Ural Federal District 1.907 1.960 1.965 1.919
Kurgan Oblast 2.115 2.101 2.123 2.030
Sverdlovsk Oblast 1.871 1.921 1.945 1.911
Tyumen Oblast 2.004 2.073 2.072 2.009
of which:
_Khanty-Mansiysk Ugra-Autonomous Okrug 2.050 2.090 2.073 2.020
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug 2.090 2.189 2.188 2.084
Tyumen Oblast 1.959 2.054 2.064 2.002
Chelyabinsk Oblast 1.802 1.855 1.843 1.809
Siberian Federal District 1.880 1.902 1.902 1.870
Altai Republic 2.815 2.883 2.677 2.634
Republic of Buryatia 2.205 2.260 2.280 2.237
Republic of Tuva 3.424 3.485 3.386 3.345
Republic of Khakassia 2.013 2.007 1.986 1.967
Altai Krai 1.830 1.841 1.811 1.777
Zabaykalsky Krai 2.014 2.078 2.057 1.979
Krasnoyarsk Krai 1.775 1.807 1.837 1.815
Irkutsk Oblast 1.978 1.966 2.012 1.989
Kemerovo Oblast 1.787 1.778 1.726 1.713
Novosibirsk Oblast 1.749 1.765 1.817 1.805
Omsk Oblast 1.867 1.951 1.911 1.808
Tomsk Oblast 1.591 1.593 1.600 1.581
Far Eastern Federal District 1.814 1.869 1.893 1.858
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 2.168 2.247 2.191 2.090
Kamchatka Krai 1.773 1.850 1.887 1.890
Primorsky Krai 1.685 1.732 1.761 1.736
Khabarovsk Krai 1.744 1.787 1.854 1.779
Amur Oblast 1.844 1.849 1.838 1.817
Magadan Oblast 1.693 1.659 1.664 1.596
Sakhalin Oblast 1.808 1.962 2.019 2.156
Jewish Autonomous Oblast 1.857 1.948 2.022 1.987
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 1.906 2.041 2.097 2.112

Life Expectancy

Russian Federation 70.76 70.93 71.39 71.87
Central Federal District 71.93 72.10 72.72 73.07
Belgorod Oblast 72.16 72.25 72.61 72.87
Bryansk Oblast 69.75 69.42 70.36 70.92
Vladimir Oblast 69.13 69.25 69.82 70.28
Voronezh Oblast 70.89 70.82 71.67 72.08
Ivanovo Oblast 69.84 69.88 70.62 70.77
Kaluga Oblast 70.02 69.93 70.73 71.18
Kostroma Oblast 69.86 70.05 70.38 70.87
Kursk Oblast 70.14 70.11 70.80 70.94
Lipetsk Oblast 70.66 70.60 71.07 71.62
Moscow Oblast 70.78 70.94 72.26 72.50
Orel Oblast 70.22 69.88 70.38 70.73
Ryazan Oblast 70.74 70.80 71.46 71.87
Smolensk Oblast 68.90 69.44 69.74 69.98
Tambov Oblast 70.93 71.11 71.67 72.11
Tver Oblast 68.13 68.43 69.10 69.24
Tula Oblast 69.41 69.63 70.06 70.56
Yaroslavl Oblast 70.45 70.64 70.98 71.21
Moscow 76.37 76.70 76.77 77.09
North-West Federal District 71.25 71.42 71.70 72.16
Republic of Karelia 69.19 69.36 69.16 69.78
Komi Republic 69.27 69.05 69.40 69.45
Arkhangelsk Oblast 70.16 70.23 70.71 70.82
of which:
_Nenets Autonomous Okrug 65.76 70.65 71.00 71.08
_Arkhangelsk Oblast 70.27 70.20 70.70 70.80
Vologda Oblast 69.35 69.74 70.40 70.24
Kaliningrad Oblast 70.51 70.28 70.58 71.92
Leningrad Oblast 70.36 70.28 71.23 71.70
Murmansk Oblast 70.46 69.97 70.24 70.94
Novgorod Oblast 67.67 68.41 68.70 69.15
Pskov Oblast 67.82 68.07 68.48 69.25
St. Petersburg 74.22 74.57 74.42 74.90
Southern Federal District 71.76 71,74 1 72,13 1 72.29
Republic of Adygea 71.80 72.01 72.22 72.59
Republic of Kalmykia 71.35 72.03 72.15 73.35
Krasnodar Krai 70.74 70.52 70.74
Republic of Crimea 72.29 72.28 72.53 72.83
Astrakhan Oblast 71.34 70.76 71.36 72.20
Volgograd Oblast 71.42 71.62 71.98 72.49
Rostov Oblast 71.39 71.30 71.90 72.20
Sevastopol 72.28 70.67 71.64
North Caucasus Federal District 73.95 74.11 74.63 75.13
Dagestan Republic 75.63 75.83 76.39 77.23
Republic of Ingushetia 78.84 79.42 80.05 80.82
Kabardino-Balkar Republic 73.71 74.16 74.61 75.12
Karachay–Cherkessia 73.94 73.91 74.44 74.72
Republic of North Ossetia – Alania 73.94 73.82 74.20 75.05
Chechen Republic 73.20 73.06 73.45 74.20
Stavropol Krai 72.75 72.75 73.36 73.40
Volga Federal District 70.06 70.20 70.71 71.39
Republic of Bashkortostan 69.63 69.76 70.08 71.00
Republic of Mari El 69.30 69.42 69.80 70.75
Republic of Mordovia 70.56 71.38 72.06 72.25
Republic of Tatarstan 72.12 72.17 72.81 73.64
Udmurt Republic 69.92 70.03 70.46 70.86
Chuvash Republic 70.79 70.62 71.35 71.52
Perm Krai 68.75 69.04 69.09 69.74
Kirov Oblast 70.26 70.59 71.11 71.71
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast 69.42 69.53 70.17 70.75
Orenburg Oblast 68.90 68.73 69.63 70.57
Penza Oblast 71.54 71.63 72.12 72.53
Samara Oblast 69.40 69.63 70.35 71.08
Saratov Oblast 70.67 70.95 71.40 72.07
Ulyanovsk Oblast 70.50 70.37 70.46 70.97
Ural Federal District 70.06 70.20 70.38 70.82
Kurgan Oblast 68.27 68.75 69.03 69.43
Sverdlovsk Oblast 69.81 69.76 69.83 70.02
Tyumen Oblast 71.35 71.50 71.76 72.33
of which:
_Khanty-Mansiysk Ugra-Autonomous Okrug 72.23 72.27 72.58 73.50
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug 71.23 71.92 71.70 72.13
Tyumen Oblast 70.14 70.32 70.58 71.03
Chelyabinsk Oblast 69.52 69.71 69.90 70.50
Siberian Federal District 68.63 68.85 69.31 69.81
Altai Republic 67.34 67.76 68.44 70.13
Republic of Buryatia 67.67 68.54 69.15 69.61
Republic of Tuva 61.79 61.79 63.13 64.21
Republic of Khakassia 68.57 68.83 68.68 69.33
Altai Krai 69.77 70.01 70.44 70.74
Zabaykalsky Krai 67.11 67.38 67.34 68.33
Krasnoyarsk Krai 69.06 69.23 69.69 70.01
Irkutsk Oblast 66.72 66.87 67.37 68.20
Kemerovo Oblast 67.72 67.80 68.31 68.72
Novosibirsk Oblast 70.19 70.28 70.86 71.20
Omsk Oblast 69.74 70.13 70.41 70.78
Tomsk Oblast 70.33 70.67 71.25 71.66
Far Eastern Federal District 67.81 68.21 68.68 69.22
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 69.13 69.81 70.29 70.84
Kamchatka Krai 67.98 68.06 68.56 68.66
Primorsky Krai 68.19 68.74 69.21 69.66
Khabarovsk Krai 67.92 68.01 68.72 69.13
Amur Oblast 66.38 67.00 67.27 68.28
Magadan Oblast 67.12 67.19 68.11 69.00
Sakhalin Oblast 67.70 67.89 67.99 68.66
Jewish Autonomous Oblast 64.94 65.20 65.04 65.88
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 62.11 62.32 64.16 64.42
 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Demographics, Russia 
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  1. ‘…The fertility rate in Crimea and Sevastopol has also increased since 2014, which you presumably wouldn’t expect of regions under brutal occupation…’

    An Unz.com writer essentially saying that the situation of the Palestinians on the West Bank is good. Improvement!

    Read More
    • Troll: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Sean
    The difference is Israel has already given some autonomy to the West Bank Palestinians, and the avowed policy of the Israeli government (and the US) is for Israel to negotiate on further concessions. All the Palestinians have to do is sit tight and wait.
    , @Hector_St_Clare
    Jewish fertility in the West Bank is actually higher than Arab fertility, believe it or not. Jewish women in the WB (who I assume are largely hyper-patriarchal Ultra-Orthodox settlers) have a TFR equivalent to Afghanistan, last I checked.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
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  2. Fertility declines in the Muslim republics of Caucasus bring a smile to my face :)

    Republic of Ingushetia 2.231 2.278 1.971 1.752
    Chechen Republic 2.925 2.912 2.799 2.622

    Finally, all this money Moscow spent to bring civilisation to Chechnya appear to pay off!

    Read More
    • Replies: @enkidusvk
    The TFR decreases there substantially, they are clearly undergoing demographic revolution, but the official numbers are little bit underestimating the real TFR as in the North Caucasus republics the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.

    So your smile is justified, but the situation is little bit less rosy.
  3. Glossy says: • Website

    Ingushetiya has the highest life expectancy in Russia, and all the Caucasus republics are higher than the federal average. I’m guessing this is because old people have a role in large, extended traditional families. They don’t feel lonely and useless, so they live longer. Same with East Asians, both at home and in the West.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    It's a lot simpler actually: devout Muslims don't binge drink.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    It's simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don't quote me on this. Something I'm investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don't live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I'm aware don't excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).
  4. @Glossy
    Ingushetiya has the highest life expectancy in Russia, and all the Caucasus republics are higher than the federal average. I'm guessing this is because old people have a role in large, extended traditional families. They don't feel lonely and useless, so they live longer. Same with East Asians, both at home and in the West.

    It’s a lot simpler actually: devout Muslims don’t binge drink.

    Read More
  5. @Glossy
    Ingushetiya has the highest life expectancy in Russia, and all the Caucasus republics are higher than the federal average. I'm guessing this is because old people have a role in large, extended traditional families. They don't feel lonely and useless, so they live longer. Same with East Asians, both at home and in the West.

    It’s simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don’t quote me on this. Something I’m investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don’t live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I’m aware don’t excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    Northern European family values are all about maintaining the nuclear family, specifically men being monogamous and not abandoning their children. This sort of family values does not include adults living with their parents or being deferential to them, so old people's life expectancy does not benefit from it. East Asian and Mediterranean/Middle Eastern family values are a completely different thing, which does benefit oldsters.
    , @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    Seventh Day Adventist Loma Linda California is designated by National Geographic as one of the five longest-living communities in the world.

    On a personal note, one time in a Roman Catholic nun's cemetary I was amazed by the nun's longevity. I've never pursued this matter any further.
    , @5371
    For life expectancy at birth in Ingushetiya to be 81 years just doesn't pass the smell test. There are likely to have been other statistical shenanigans which are not so immediately obvious, and that applies to fertility rates as well.
    , @g2k
    It's interesting to also see the northern/southern gap. Not sure whether there's more "Mediterranean" drinking habits in the south or whether the cold, short winter day length and, presumably, rarer fresh food finish people off a couple of years earlier in the North.
  6. Glossy says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin
    It's simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don't quote me on this. Something I'm investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don't live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I'm aware don't excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).

    Northern European family values are all about maintaining the nuclear family, specifically men being monogamous and not abandoning their children. This sort of family values does not include adults living with their parents or being deferential to them, so old people’s life expectancy does not benefit from it. East Asian and Mediterranean/Middle Eastern family values are a completely different thing, which does benefit oldsters.

    Read More
  7. Dan Hayes says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    It's simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don't quote me on this. Something I'm investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don't live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I'm aware don't excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).

    Anatoly,

    Seventh Day Adventist Loma Linda California is designated by National Geographic as one of the five longest-living communities in the world.

    On a personal note, one time in a Roman Catholic nun’s cemetary I was amazed by the nun’s longevity. I’ve never pursued this matter any further.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    For what it's worth, everyone in Loma Linda works either at the hospital, the medical school, or at a vegetarian restaurant.
  8. 5371 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    It's simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don't quote me on this. Something I'm investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don't live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I'm aware don't excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).

    For life expectancy at birth in Ingushetiya to be 81 years just doesn’t pass the smell test. There are likely to have been other statistical shenanigans which are not so immediately obvious, and that applies to fertility rates as well.

    Read More
    • Replies: @enkidusvk
    You are right. In the North Caucasus republics, the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be only 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.
    , @inertial
    In the Soviet Union mountain dwellers from North Caucasus had a reputation for long life expectancy. As an illustration, here is a relevant Soviet era joke.

    An old man descends down a mountain into the city and goes into a men's clothing store.
    "Can I buy a suit for a wedding?"
    "Grandpa, you are almost a hundred years old, why do you need a suit for a wedding?"
    "It's not for me, it's for my dad."
    "Your dad must be 120 years old, why would he want to get married?"
    "He doesn't want to, his parents are making him."
  9. g2k says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    It's simpler: No vodka bingeing (edit: As Felix also pointed out).

    PS. Also perhaps a bit of statistical fidgeting, though don't quote me on this. Something I'm investigating atm.

    Re-East Asians, I strongly suspect they just naturally live slightly longer than North Europeans, same as Mediterraneans. A great deal is also made of Mormon life expectancy, but Utah whites don't live any longer than, say, Coloradans; or their New England cousins. The whites who do live noticeably longer than any other whites in the US are those in Washington D.C., who so far as I'm aware don't excel in family values (they do excel in average IQ, however).

    It’s interesting to also see the northern/southern gap. Not sure whether there’s more “Mediterranean” drinking habits in the south or whether the cold, short winter day length and, presumably, rarer fresh food finish people off a couple of years earlier in the North.

    Read More
  10. @Dan Hayes
    Anatoly,

    Seventh Day Adventist Loma Linda California is designated by National Geographic as one of the five longest-living communities in the world.

    On a personal note, one time in a Roman Catholic nun's cemetary I was amazed by the nun's longevity. I've never pursued this matter any further.

    For what it’s worth, everyone in Loma Linda works either at the hospital, the medical school, or at a vegetarian restaurant.

    Read More
  11. Jon0815 says:

    Fertility in the seven majority-Muslim regions continues to decline rather quickly: If my math is correct, the average in those regions (weighted for population) was 2.04 in 2014, 1.99 in 2015, and 1.93 in 2016.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    This is a big deal imo, and I hope Anatoly will spend some time to adress this trend.

    Some Russian nationalists have a slogan: "Stop feeding the Caucasus". Yet the federal money is used to build infrastructure and urban housing, enabling the locals to lead more civilised lives. This also means lower fertility.
  12. @Jon0815
    Fertility in the seven majority-Muslim regions continues to decline rather quickly: If my math is correct, the average in those regions (weighted for population) was 2.04 in 2014, 1.99 in 2015, and 1.93 in 2016.

    This is a big deal imo, and I hope Anatoly will spend some time to adress this trend.

    Some Russian nationalists have a slogan: “Stop feeding the Caucasus”. Yet the federal money is used to build infrastructure and urban housing, enabling the locals to lead more civilised lives. This also means lower fertility.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    I don't know if infrastructure and urban housing would lower their fertility. Greater Internet penetration could do it. More higher education among women. Greater involvement of women in the job market.
  13. Glossy says: • Website
    @Felix Keverich
    This is a big deal imo, and I hope Anatoly will spend some time to adress this trend.

    Some Russian nationalists have a slogan: "Stop feeding the Caucasus". Yet the federal money is used to build infrastructure and urban housing, enabling the locals to lead more civilised lives. This also means lower fertility.

    I don’t know if infrastructure and urban housing would lower their fertility. Greater Internet penetration could do it. More higher education among women. Greater involvement of women in the job market.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Greater level of urbanisation correlates with lower fertility pretty much everywhere on Earth. Granted, no one really understands how human reproductive behavior is shaped, but before we can even talk about things like "higher education" and a "job market", first we must get these people out of isolated mountain villages and place them into urban setting.
    , @Hector_St_Clare
    Glossy,

    There's some evidence that at very high levels of human development, you start getting a positive relationship between prosperity and fertility again. The nadir of fertility appears to be when you reach the prosperity level of southern Europe and eastern Asia.

    Caveat: I'm not sure I believe this paper. The curve that they identify looks to be heavily influenced by a single rich high-fertility outlier (Israel). I haven't run the numbers though so it still might be true.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08230.html
  14. @Glossy
    I don't know if infrastructure and urban housing would lower their fertility. Greater Internet penetration could do it. More higher education among women. Greater involvement of women in the job market.

    Greater level of urbanisation correlates with lower fertility pretty much everywhere on Earth. Granted, no one really understands how human reproductive behavior is shaped, but before we can even talk about things like “higher education” and a “job market”, first we must get these people out of isolated mountain villages and place them into urban setting.

    Read More
  15. Glad to see that the Muslim fertility rate (especially in Chechnya) is declining quite markedly. Anatoly, do you have a longer time series so I could look at historical Chechen TFR?

    Read More
  16. neutral says:

    That Jewish Autonomous Oblast is just another good example of the double standards when it comes to jews. Nobody would have ever given the Germans their own oblast, even though there was once a big German population in Russia, yet Stalin only gave the jews their own autonomous region but he is still called an anti semite.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hector_St_Clare
    Neutral,

    Yes, there was a German autonomous region for certain periods of history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_German_Autonomous_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

    Clearly the two situations are different since 1) Germans had gone to war with Russia several times in history (starting with the Teutonic Knights and ending with the Nazi invasion that ended up killing over 20 million Soviets), and 2) Germans already had *a large country of their own*, whereas the Jews didn't at the time when Birobidzhan was created. In spite of that though, Volga Germans did have their own region for awhile.

    I was just reading the other day about the abortive plans (never put into effect) to create a homeland for Gypsies / Roma somewhere on Soviet territory, analogous to Birobidzhan for the Jews. It's a pity that never happened. Roma have not assimilated well in Eastern / Central Europe (to state the obvious), and giving them their own country or at least autonomous region would probably have been the best thing for all concerned. (At this point in history, encouraging Roma migration to the United States might be the best solution to the ethnic conflict in places like Hungary, the Czech Republic, etc.).
    , @melanf
    "Nobody would have ever given the Germans their own oblast"


    Currently in Russia there are Azovsky German National District ( Deutscher Nationalkreis Asowo) near Omsk and German Ethnic District (Deutscher Nationalrajon) in Altai
  17. @neutral
    That Jewish Autonomous Oblast is just another good example of the double standards when it comes to jews. Nobody would have ever given the Germans their own oblast, even though there was once a big German population in Russia, yet Stalin only gave the jews their own autonomous region but he is still called an anti semite.

    Neutral,

    Yes, there was a German autonomous region for certain periods of history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_German_Autonomous_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

    Clearly the two situations are different since 1) Germans had gone to war with Russia several times in history (starting with the Teutonic Knights and ending with the Nazi invasion that ended up killing over 20 million Soviets), and 2) Germans already had *a large country of their own*, whereas the Jews didn’t at the time when Birobidzhan was created. In spite of that though, Volga Germans did have their own region for awhile.

    I was just reading the other day about the abortive plans (never put into effect) to create a homeland for Gypsies / Roma somewhere on Soviet territory, analogous to Birobidzhan for the Jews. It’s a pity that never happened. Roma have not assimilated well in Eastern / Central Europe (to state the obvious), and giving them their own country or at least autonomous region would probably have been the best thing for all concerned. (At this point in history, encouraging Roma migration to the United States might be the best solution to the ethnic conflict in places like Hungary, the Czech Republic, etc.).

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    No gypsies would move there, any more than jews moved to Birobidzhan.
  18. @Glossy
    I don't know if infrastructure and urban housing would lower their fertility. Greater Internet penetration could do it. More higher education among women. Greater involvement of women in the job market.

    Glossy,

    There’s some evidence that at very high levels of human development, you start getting a positive relationship between prosperity and fertility again. The nadir of fertility appears to be when you reach the prosperity level of southern Europe and eastern Asia.

    Caveat: I’m not sure I believe this paper. The curve that they identify looks to be heavily influenced by a single rich high-fertility outlier (Israel). I haven’t run the numbers though so it still might be true.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08230.html

    Read More
  19. alaskaguy says:

    If you analyzed the siberians separately from russians in eastern districts, would TFR go dramatically up, like in Tuva? Are reindeer herders really being outbred by Chechens or is the non-alcohol/relative lack of gibs subsiziding these caucasians?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Most Siberian regions are majority ethnic Russians. Outside Tuva, and to a lesser extent Altai Republic, they are are overwhelmingly Russian. For instance, Irkutsk oblast is 94% Russian.

    Ethnic Russians in Siberia just have higher TFR's than in the center.

    JayMan has some theories why that is so: https://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/09/08/further-testing-the-pioneer-hypothesis-canada-and-russia/
  20. Sean says:
    @anony-mouse
    '...The fertility rate in Crimea and Sevastopol has also increased since 2014, which you presumably wouldn’t expect of regions under brutal occupation...'

    An Unz.com writer essentially saying that the situation of the Palestinians on the West Bank is good. Improvement!

    The difference is Israel has already given some autonomy to the West Bank Palestinians, and the avowed policy of the Israeli government (and the US) is for Israel to negotiate on further concessions. All the Palestinians have to do is sit tight and wait.

    Read More
  21. @anony-mouse
    '...The fertility rate in Crimea and Sevastopol has also increased since 2014, which you presumably wouldn’t expect of regions under brutal occupation...'

    An Unz.com writer essentially saying that the situation of the Palestinians on the West Bank is good. Improvement!

    Jewish fertility in the West Bank is actually higher than Arab fertility, believe it or not. Jewish women in the WB (who I assume are largely hyper-patriarchal Ultra-Orthodox settlers) have a TFR equivalent to Afghanistan, last I checked.

    Read More
  22. 5371 says:
    @Hector_St_Clare
    Neutral,

    Yes, there was a German autonomous region for certain periods of history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_German_Autonomous_Soviet_Socialist_Republic

    Clearly the two situations are different since 1) Germans had gone to war with Russia several times in history (starting with the Teutonic Knights and ending with the Nazi invasion that ended up killing over 20 million Soviets), and 2) Germans already had *a large country of their own*, whereas the Jews didn't at the time when Birobidzhan was created. In spite of that though, Volga Germans did have their own region for awhile.

    I was just reading the other day about the abortive plans (never put into effect) to create a homeland for Gypsies / Roma somewhere on Soviet territory, analogous to Birobidzhan for the Jews. It's a pity that never happened. Roma have not assimilated well in Eastern / Central Europe (to state the obvious), and giving them their own country or at least autonomous region would probably have been the best thing for all concerned. (At this point in history, encouraging Roma migration to the United States might be the best solution to the ethnic conflict in places like Hungary, the Czech Republic, etc.).

    No gypsies would move there, any more than jews moved to Birobidzhan.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hector_St_Clare
    5371:

    I don't know. Unlike Jews, Roma/Gypsies in eastern Europe (both then and now) are really, really poor / miserable. It's not a comparable situation.

    (Yes, there were a lot of poor / miserable Jews back in Stalin's day, but the condition of Roma in Eastern Europe is really a whole different level of terrible).
  23. @5371
    No gypsies would move there, any more than jews moved to Birobidzhan.

    5371:

    I don’t know. Unlike Jews, Roma/Gypsies in eastern Europe (both then and now) are really, really poor / miserable. It’s not a comparable situation.

    (Yes, there were a lot of poor / miserable Jews back in Stalin’s day, but the condition of Roma in Eastern Europe is really a whole different level of terrible).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Boris N
    The impossibility for the Roma to settle or have a homeland is cultural. They have a deep ingrained nomadic mentality. This is the way they started as a nation. If a Roma settles and starts to live like all other nations around this Roma stops being a Roma. And the Roma language is undeveloped, it is practically a street jargon, and they have no particular distinct religion or culture, so having nothing distinct other than their nomadic mentality and semi-criminal way of life the Roma assimilate in one generation if they abandon it.
  24. enkidusvk says:
    @5371
    For life expectancy at birth in Ingushetiya to be 81 years just doesn't pass the smell test. There are likely to have been other statistical shenanigans which are not so immediately obvious, and that applies to fertility rates as well.

    You are right. In the North Caucasus republics, the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be only 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Would you happen to have a link?

    I am familiar with this article, though the argument he makes is that TFR is also artificially inflated: https://sputnikipogrom.com/politics/52925/dead-souls/
  25. enkidusvk says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Fertility declines in the Muslim republics of Caucasus bring a smile to my face :)

    Republic of Ingushetia 2.231 2.278 1.971 1.752
    Chechen Republic 2.925 2.912 2.799 2.622

    Finally, all this money Moscow spent to bring civilisation to Chechnya appear to pay off!

    The TFR decreases there substantially, they are clearly undergoing demographic revolution, but the official numbers are little bit underestimating the real TFR as in the North Caucasus republics the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.

    So your smile is justified, but the situation is little bit less rosy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    I'm not sure it works like this. Tell me, does the number of births in Russia reported by Rosstat includes the non-citizens? When a non-citizen woman gives birth in Moscow is it included in Russian statistics somehow?

    Moscow's TFR looks surprisingly low given that it's actual population is probably 50% bigger than the one officially reported. I suspect that 'propiska' may be required by authorities to accept that you really exist. In other words TFR for Moscow could only be calculated based on Moscovites with propiska in Moscow. And if the parents have propiska in Dagestan, their baby is counted as though he was born in Dagestan. This is so absurd and stupid, that it sounds like something the Russian statistics service would do :)

    Anyway, we should probably take these numbers with a grain of salt, they are mostly useful insofar as they help us identify a trend.
  26. @enkidusvk
    You are right. In the North Caucasus republics, the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be only 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.

    Would you happen to have a link?

    I am familiar with this article, though the argument he makes is that TFR is also artificially inflated: https://sputnikipogrom.com/politics/52925/dead-souls/

    Read More
    • Replies: @enkidusvk
    Sure, Anatoly. The blogger is zemfort1983 (he is not professional demographer, but a lawyer - at least I think) and he is for me the source of newest info on Russian demography as I am not Russian, but speak Russian moderately.

    Here in the discussion on his blog below a post (just expand his comment and you will find it) he mentions the numbers I just quoted http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/938744.html

    and here is his reasoning and way how he does his calculations of the real population of North Caucasus republics (posts from 2014): http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237353.html
    and http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237767.html

  27. @alaskaguy
    If you analyzed the siberians separately from russians in eastern districts, would TFR go dramatically up, like in Tuva? Are reindeer herders really being outbred by Chechens or is the non-alcohol/relative lack of gibs subsiziding these caucasians?

    Most Siberian regions are majority ethnic Russians. Outside Tuva, and to a lesser extent Altai Republic, they are are overwhelmingly Russian. For instance, Irkutsk oblast is 94% Russian.

    Ethnic Russians in Siberia just have higher TFR’s than in the center.

    JayMan has some theories why that is so: https://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/09/08/further-testing-the-pioneer-hypothesis-canada-and-russia/

    Read More
    • Replies: @alaskaguy
    Thanks for responding. I guess that even if people like mansi, khanty, nenets, ket had massive birthrates or at least comparable to tuvans, it would still be insignificant datawise. I was actually curious about the "siberians" TFR in contrast to Russians, Ukrainians, and Tatars in that question.
  28. enkidusvk says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Would you happen to have a link?

    I am familiar with this article, though the argument he makes is that TFR is also artificially inflated: https://sputnikipogrom.com/politics/52925/dead-souls/

    Sure, Anatoly. The blogger is zemfort1983 (he is not professional demographer, but a lawyer – at least I think) and he is for me the source of newest info on Russian demography as I am not Russian, but speak Russian moderately.

    Here in the discussion on his blog below a post (just expand his comment and you will find it) he mentions the numbers I just quoted http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/938744.html

    and here is his reasoning and way how he does his calculations of the real population of North Caucasus republics (posts from 2014): http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237353.html
    and http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237767.html

    Read More
  29. @enkidusvk
    The TFR decreases there substantially, they are clearly undergoing demographic revolution, but the official numbers are little bit underestimating the real TFR as in the North Caucasus republics the actual population is lower than what are the official figures, because the emigration (to other Russian regions and to abroad) from them is underreported, from what I read on a website of one Russian blogger, he estimates the real population of Ingushetiya to be 79% of the official number, with Chechnya he estimates it to be 90%. This means that the official number underestimate the fertility rate and overestimate the life expectancy. But it is ofc not confined to these republics, there are more regions in Russia where this is the case.

    So your smile is justified, but the situation is little bit less rosy.

    I’m not sure it works like this. Tell me, does the number of births in Russia reported by Rosstat includes the non-citizens? When a non-citizen woman gives birth in Moscow is it included in Russian statistics somehow?

    Moscow’s TFR looks surprisingly low given that it’s actual population is probably 50% bigger than the one officially reported. I suspect that ‘propiska’ may be required by authorities to accept that you really exist. In other words TFR for Moscow could only be calculated based on Moscovites with propiska in Moscow. And if the parents have propiska in Dagestan, their baby is counted as though he was born in Dagestan. This is so absurd and stupid, that it sounds like something the Russian statistics service would do :)

    Anyway, we should probably take these numbers with a grain of salt, they are mostly useful insofar as they help us identify a trend.

    Read More
    • Replies: @enkidusvk
    When it comes to your questions, I really do not know. I am sorry.

    What I was trying to say and what I read on other forums about Russian demography, that there is a mess in the regional statistics and people migrating between Russian regions and thus the intraregional calculation of TFR means that some regions TFR are overestimated and some are underestimated. And the blogger zemfort1983 seems to be competent about this and that is why I quoted his numbers.

    But as you say, trends and numbers for federal districts hold. And they say that non-Russian TFR decreased last year, while Russian stayed the same. While in previous years Russian TFR was increasing, while non-Russian stagnating/increasing very slowly (due to Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, while the NC republics were decreasing at that time, too).

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan - 2,36;
    Ingushetiya - 2,22;
    Kab-Bal - 1,97;
    Kar-Cher - 1,65;
    Chechnya - 2,92.

  30. enkidusvk says:
    @Felix Keverich
    I'm not sure it works like this. Tell me, does the number of births in Russia reported by Rosstat includes the non-citizens? When a non-citizen woman gives birth in Moscow is it included in Russian statistics somehow?

    Moscow's TFR looks surprisingly low given that it's actual population is probably 50% bigger than the one officially reported. I suspect that 'propiska' may be required by authorities to accept that you really exist. In other words TFR for Moscow could only be calculated based on Moscovites with propiska in Moscow. And if the parents have propiska in Dagestan, their baby is counted as though he was born in Dagestan. This is so absurd and stupid, that it sounds like something the Russian statistics service would do :)

    Anyway, we should probably take these numbers with a grain of salt, they are mostly useful insofar as they help us identify a trend.

    When it comes to your questions, I really do not know. I am sorry.

    What I was trying to say and what I read on other forums about Russian demography, that there is a mess in the regional statistics and people migrating between Russian regions and thus the intraregional calculation of TFR means that some regions TFR are overestimated and some are underestimated. And the blogger zemfort1983 seems to be competent about this and that is why I quoted his numbers.

    But as you say, trends and numbers for federal districts hold. And they say that non-Russian TFR decreased last year, while Russian stayed the same. While in previous years Russian TFR was increasing, while non-Russian stagnating/increasing very slowly (due to Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, while the NC republics were decreasing at that time, too).

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan – 2,36;
    Ingushetiya – 2,22;
    Kab-Bal – 1,97;
    Kar-Cher – 1,65;
    Chechnya – 2,92.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan – 2,36;
    Ingushetiya – 2,22;
    Kab-Bal – 1,97;
    Kar-Cher – 1,65;
    Chechnya – 2,92.
     
    I think I see how these estimates were calculated. You said he thinks population of Ingushetiya is only 79% of the official number...
    So his estimated TFR = (official TFR)/0,79 = 1.752/0,79=2,2177

    However, TFR is calculated relative to the population of women of childbearing age, as opposed to CRUDE BIRTHRATE, which is calculated by dividing the number of births by the total population. "Adjusting" official TFR the way zemfort1983 does it makes for a very crude approximation, so crude, it calls the utility of his approach into question.

    In other words, we're better off using Rosstat's numbers.
  31. inertial says:
    @5371
    For life expectancy at birth in Ingushetiya to be 81 years just doesn't pass the smell test. There are likely to have been other statistical shenanigans which are not so immediately obvious, and that applies to fertility rates as well.

    In the Soviet Union mountain dwellers from North Caucasus had a reputation for long life expectancy. As an illustration, here is a relevant Soviet era joke.

    An old man descends down a mountain into the city and goes into a men’s clothing store.
    “Can I buy a suit for a wedding?”
    “Grandpa, you are almost a hundred years old, why do you need a suit for a wedding?”
    “It’s not for me, it’s for my dad.”
    “Your dad must be 120 years old, why would he want to get married?”
    “He doesn’t want to, his parents are making him.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    I know, but as you must also know, all those claims were in due course debunked and abandoned, which didn't spoil the joke.
  32. @enkidusvk
    Sure, Anatoly. The blogger is zemfort1983 (he is not professional demographer, but a lawyer - at least I think) and he is for me the source of newest info on Russian demography as I am not Russian, but speak Russian moderately.

    Here in the discussion on his blog below a post (just expand his comment and you will find it) he mentions the numbers I just quoted http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/938744.html

    and here is his reasoning and way how he does his calculations of the real population of North Caucasus republics (posts from 2014): http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237353.html
    and http://zemfort1983.livejournal.com/237767.html

    Thanks!

    I’ll look into this.

    Read More
  33. @enkidusvk
    When it comes to your questions, I really do not know. I am sorry.

    What I was trying to say and what I read on other forums about Russian demography, that there is a mess in the regional statistics and people migrating between Russian regions and thus the intraregional calculation of TFR means that some regions TFR are overestimated and some are underestimated. And the blogger zemfort1983 seems to be competent about this and that is why I quoted his numbers.

    But as you say, trends and numbers for federal districts hold. And they say that non-Russian TFR decreased last year, while Russian stayed the same. While in previous years Russian TFR was increasing, while non-Russian stagnating/increasing very slowly (due to Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, while the NC republics were decreasing at that time, too).

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan - 2,36;
    Ingushetiya - 2,22;
    Kab-Bal - 1,97;
    Kar-Cher - 1,65;
    Chechnya - 2,92.

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan – 2,36;
    Ingushetiya – 2,22;
    Kab-Bal – 1,97;
    Kar-Cher – 1,65;
    Chechnya – 2,92.

    I think I see how these estimates were calculated. You said he thinks population of Ingushetiya is only 79% of the official number…
    So his estimated TFR = (official TFR)/0,79 = 1.752/0,79=2,2177

    However, TFR is calculated relative to the population of women of childbearing age, as opposed to CRUDE BIRTHRATE, which is calculated by dividing the number of births by the total population. “Adjusting” official TFR the way zemfort1983 does it makes for a very crude approximation, so crude, it calls the utility of his approach into question.

    In other words, we’re better off using Rosstat’s numbers.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I agree - if that's his method, it's very crude indeed.

    OTOH, since most internal migrants are middle-aged, this method would if anything underestimate the needed upwards adjustment to TFR?
    , @enkidusvk
    It might be crude, but it will be much closer to reality than the official number of 1.752 for Ingushetiya, that is even lower than the Russian average.
  34. @Felix Keverich

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan – 2,36;
    Ingushetiya – 2,22;
    Kab-Bal – 1,97;
    Kar-Cher – 1,65;
    Chechnya – 2,92.
     
    I think I see how these estimates were calculated. You said he thinks population of Ingushetiya is only 79% of the official number...
    So his estimated TFR = (official TFR)/0,79 = 1.752/0,79=2,2177

    However, TFR is calculated relative to the population of women of childbearing age, as opposed to CRUDE BIRTHRATE, which is calculated by dividing the number of births by the total population. "Adjusting" official TFR the way zemfort1983 does it makes for a very crude approximation, so crude, it calls the utility of his approach into question.

    In other words, we're better off using Rosstat's numbers.

    I agree – if that’s his method, it’s very crude indeed.

    OTOH, since most internal migrants are middle-aged, this method would if anything underestimate the needed upwards adjustment to TFR?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    I'd also say that Caucasian women are less likely than men to move in search of work. There are so many variables here - independent analyst will never be able to account for all. There is simply not enough publicly available data to work with.
  35. @Anatoly Karlin
    I agree - if that's his method, it's very crude indeed.

    OTOH, since most internal migrants are middle-aged, this method would if anything underestimate the needed upwards adjustment to TFR?

    I’d also say that Caucasian women are less likely than men to move in search of work. There are so many variables here – independent analyst will never be able to account for all. There is simply not enough publicly available data to work with.

    Read More
  36. alaskaguy says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Most Siberian regions are majority ethnic Russians. Outside Tuva, and to a lesser extent Altai Republic, they are are overwhelmingly Russian. For instance, Irkutsk oblast is 94% Russian.

    Ethnic Russians in Siberia just have higher TFR's than in the center.

    JayMan has some theories why that is so: https://jaymans.wordpress.com/2012/09/08/further-testing-the-pioneer-hypothesis-canada-and-russia/

    Thanks for responding. I guess that even if people like mansi, khanty, nenets, ket had massive birthrates or at least comparable to tuvans, it would still be insignificant datawise. I was actually curious about the “siberians” TFR in contrast to Russians, Ukrainians, and Tatars in that question.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    They tend to be high fertility like the Buryats and Tuvans, around 3.0-3.5 children per woman.

    However, there are few of them.
  37. Boris N says:

    Chechens and Tuvans are breeding like hell. Even with the decline it is impressive.

    But I see nothing particularly exciting in my oblast and its neighbors. Hardly anything has changed.

    Read More
  38. Boris N says:
    @Hector_St_Clare
    5371:

    I don't know. Unlike Jews, Roma/Gypsies in eastern Europe (both then and now) are really, really poor / miserable. It's not a comparable situation.

    (Yes, there were a lot of poor / miserable Jews back in Stalin's day, but the condition of Roma in Eastern Europe is really a whole different level of terrible).

    The impossibility for the Roma to settle or have a homeland is cultural. They have a deep ingrained nomadic mentality. This is the way they started as a nation. If a Roma settles and starts to live like all other nations around this Roma stops being a Roma. And the Roma language is undeveloped, it is practically a street jargon, and they have no particular distinct religion or culture, so having nothing distinct other than their nomadic mentality and semi-criminal way of life the Roma assimilate in one generation if they abandon it.

    Read More
  39. 5371 says:
    @inertial
    In the Soviet Union mountain dwellers from North Caucasus had a reputation for long life expectancy. As an illustration, here is a relevant Soviet era joke.

    An old man descends down a mountain into the city and goes into a men's clothing store.
    "Can I buy a suit for a wedding?"
    "Grandpa, you are almost a hundred years old, why do you need a suit for a wedding?"
    "It's not for me, it's for my dad."
    "Your dad must be 120 years old, why would he want to get married?"
    "He doesn't want to, his parents are making him."

    I know, but as you must also know, all those claims were in due course debunked and abandoned, which didn’t spoil the joke.

    Read More
  40. melanf says:
    @neutral
    That Jewish Autonomous Oblast is just another good example of the double standards when it comes to jews. Nobody would have ever given the Germans their own oblast, even though there was once a big German population in Russia, yet Stalin only gave the jews their own autonomous region but he is still called an anti semite.

    “Nobody would have ever given the Germans their own oblast”

    Currently in Russia there are Azovsky German National District ( Deutscher Nationalkreis Asowo) near Omsk and German Ethnic District (Deutscher Nationalrajon) in Altai

    Read More
  41. enkidusvk says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Btw, he estimates real TFR of the NC republics for year 2016 to be:
    Dagestan – 2,36;
    Ingushetiya – 2,22;
    Kab-Bal – 1,97;
    Kar-Cher – 1,65;
    Chechnya – 2,92.
     
    I think I see how these estimates were calculated. You said he thinks population of Ingushetiya is only 79% of the official number...
    So his estimated TFR = (official TFR)/0,79 = 1.752/0,79=2,2177

    However, TFR is calculated relative to the population of women of childbearing age, as opposed to CRUDE BIRTHRATE, which is calculated by dividing the number of births by the total population. "Adjusting" official TFR the way zemfort1983 does it makes for a very crude approximation, so crude, it calls the utility of his approach into question.

    In other words, we're better off using Rosstat's numbers.

    It might be crude, but it will be much closer to reality than the official number of 1.752 for Ingushetiya, that is even lower than the Russian average.

    Read More
  42. truthman says:

    So do we have an overall idea of what the likely tfr for Slavs vs non-Slavs in Russia is?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, its about 0.1 children per woman lower (so 1.65-1.70).
  43. @truthman
    So do we have an overall idea of what the likely tfr for Slavs vs non-Slavs in Russia is?

    Yes, its about 0.1 children per woman lower (so 1.65-1.70).

    Read More
  44. truthman says:

    Are there any lessons from the Kirov or Kostroma oblasts on why they have a higher tfr. Looks like Kirov has one of the star areas anywhere in the white world, going from 1.59 to 1.94 over the last 7 years. This would almost justify a fact finding road trip of concerned pro-Western leaders and thinkers.

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  45. @alaskaguy
    Thanks for responding. I guess that even if people like mansi, khanty, nenets, ket had massive birthrates or at least comparable to tuvans, it would still be insignificant datawise. I was actually curious about the "siberians" TFR in contrast to Russians, Ukrainians, and Tatars in that question.

    They tend to be high fertility like the Buryats and Tuvans, around 3.0-3.5 children per woman.

    However, there are few of them.

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  46. truthman says:

    Anatoly, have you been following demographic trends in Poland? Since last spring families are given 500 zloty’s a month per second and higher children in the family. The Polish government is claiming that its having an effect, with higher than average births for the last five months or so. Might be worth checking out.

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  47. What about emigration and immigration statistics?

    I’m especially interested in how many Russians moved out of Russia (excluding the guest workers from CIS-countries who returned to their home countries).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Demoscope has a huge issue on that:

    http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0719/barom01.php

    Graphs: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0719/img/b_graf01.jpg
    (purple = arrivals; dark purple = departees)

    By country: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0719/img/b_graf03.jpg
    Officially, very few Russians leave for the Far Abroad, it's better to look at foreign arrivals statistics for that.

    But the figures there are still low, and I don't expect any major changes to have occured in 2016.

    My article on this: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nth-wave-of-russian-emigration/
  48. @karl1haushofer
    What about emigration and immigration statistics?

    I'm especially interested in how many Russians moved out of Russia (excluding the guest workers from CIS-countries who returned to their home countries).

    Demoscope has a huge issue on that:

    http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2017/0719/barom01.php

    Graphs:
    (purple = arrivals; dark purple = departees)

    By country:
    Officially, very few Russians leave for the Far Abroad, it’s better to look at foreign arrivals statistics for that.

    But the figures there are still low, and I don’t expect any major changes to have occured in 2016.

    My article on this: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/nth-wave-of-russian-emigration/

    Read More

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