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New Year: 2018 Prediction Calibration Results
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My predictions for 2018.

As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability level versus their probability (e.g., for predictions at the 70% confidence level, perfect calibration would represent getting 7/10 of them correct). Predictions with a probability rating of less than 50% are converted to their inverse.

Correct predictions are left as is, while wrong predictions are crossed out. Additional comments are in bolded italics.

Previous predictions/calibrations:

Incidentally, this was probably the last series of quantitative predictions I am going to do. Ultimately, there are markets for this sort of thing.

***

World

Economics

  • Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50% $45, pretty bad fail.
  • BTC prices are higher than $4,000: 50% $3,800 on Jan 1, spot on.
  • Russia’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50% Will be around 1.8%
  • USA’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50% Will almost certainly qualify.
  • Ukraine’s GDP grows by 3.5%+: 50% Will be around 3.2% and just miss out.
  • China’s GDP grows by 6.5%+: 50% Current growth around 6.7% for third 3 quarters so likely true unless tumbles now.

Science & Tech

  • No new global temperature record: 60%.
  • China will have more top 500 supercomputers than the US at the end of 2018: 90% 227 to 109, correct.
  • Robust mouse rejuvenation does not happen: 95%
  • Radical life extension does not happen: 99%
  • Artificial General Intelligence or superintelligence do not happen: 99%
  • There is no significant (>10 nukes) nuclear warfare: 99%
  • Human civilization does not run into an existential risk (if it does, I will try my best to confirm it here before the Internet winks out): 99%

World Conflicts

  • US will not get involved in any new major war with a death toll of >50 US soldiers: 80%
  • US strike on a North Korean missile base: 50%
  • No major conflict on the Korean peninsula (>50 deaths): 90%
  • No Korean War II with US/ROK ground invasion: 95%
  • No major conflict between China and the US (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia: 95%
  • No major conflict between China, and Vietnam or India (>50 deaths): 95%
  • No major conflict (>50 deaths), except Donbass, in the former Soviet space: 90%
  • There will not be a US strike on Iran: 90%
  • No major (direct) conflict between Iran and the US (>50 deaths) in the Middle East: 95%
  • No major conflict/US military intervention in Venezuela: 99%

Syrian Civil War (map right for reference purposes)

  • The Syrian Civil War is still ongoing: 80%
  • The city of Idlib is still under rebel control: 60%. Correct
  • Islamic State no longer controls any territory in Iraq and/or Syria: 90%. Still a big chunk of gray in the desert.
  • US and its allies will not impose a no fly zone over Syria: 90%
  • There will not be a major clash between the US and Russia over Syria (>3 fighters lost by either side): 90% I didn’t specify they had to be official military, so that’s incorrect.
  • Turkey will not “backstab” Russia and the Syrian government: 90%
  • The cold war between Syria and the SDF does not turn hot: 80%
  • Syria controls more territory at the end of 2018 than it does today today: 70%
  • Syria still controls Aleppo: 90%
  • Bashar Assad will remain President of Syria: 90%

War in Donbass

  • War in Donbass doesn’t reignite: 70%
  • CONDITIONAL: If it reignites, it will happen during or within a month of the FIFA World Cup: 70% NOT COUNTED.
  • Mariupol still under Ukraine control: 80%
  • Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkov all still under central Ukrainian control: 95%
  • Russia does not recognize the DNR, LNR, or some other de facto state formation within the Ukraine: 80%
  • No “Putinsliv”/abandonment of Russian support for DNR/LNR, with the Ukraine recapturing Donetsk and Lugansk: 95%
  • The Crimea remains Russian: 99%

World Politics

  • No further large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Middle East/North African countries, apart from Iran and those already so afflicted: 70%
  • No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in China: 95%
  • No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Iran: 50%
  • The Iranian “regime” (defined as one based on wilayat-e faqih) will remain in place: 80%.
  • Venezuela undergoes sovereign default: 70%. Not yet, remarkably.
  • Nicolas Maduro remains leader of Venezuela: 60%.
  • Kim Jong Un remains leader of North Korea: 90%
  • Julian Assange still cooped up at the Ecuadorian Embassy: 80%
  • US further expands Russia sanctions: 80%
  • US does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 90%
  • EU further expands Russia sanctions: 50%
  • EU does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 80%
  • Russia is not cut off from SWIFT: 90%

Russian Politics

  • No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Russia: 95%
  • Putin wins the 2018 Russian Presidential elections: 99%
  • Putin gets more than 80% in the Russian Presidential elections: 50%. 77%.
  • Pavel Grudinin (KPRF) gets more than 7% in the Russian elections: 50%.
  • Zhirinovsky (LDPR) gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%.
  • Zhirinovsky gets more votes than Pavel Grudinin: 60%
  • Navalny is not allowed to run: 90%
  • CONDITIONAL: If Sobchak is allowed to run, she gets more than 3% in the Russian elections: 50%.
  • CONDITIONAL: If Navalny is allowed to run, he gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%. NOT COUNTED
  • Russian elections see record low turnout: 80%
  • The Russian elections see more than 60% turnout: 50%
  • Alexey Dyumin upgraded from governnorship of Tula oblast and given a significant position in the federal government: 60%
  • Dmitry Medvedev continues as Prime Minister: 70%
  • Alexey Ulyukaev gets a suspended sentence on appeal: 60%
  • There will be at least 100 arrests in post-elections protests: 80%
  • Putin remains Russian President at the end of the year: 90%
  • Putin’s approval rating (Levada) is higher than 60% at year end: 50%
  • There will be substantial (>10,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 80%
  • There will be no be massive (>100,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 60%
  • Even fewer Russians approve (Levada) of the United States at year end than they did this December (24%): 50%.

Ukrainian Politics

  • Poroshenko remains in power: 90%
  • The Ukraine does not undergo sovereign default: 95%
  • Saakashvili extradited to Georgia: 70%

US Politics

  • No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in USA: 95%
  • Trump remains US President: 80%
  • Trump’s approval rating (538) is higher than 32%: 50%
  • Democrats will control the Senate: 50%
  • Democrats will control the House: 60%
  • Rex Tillerson no longer Secretary of State: 60%
  • Jared Kushner no longer in the White House: 80%
  • Hillary Clinton does not get prosecuted: 95%
  • Freedom House lowers United States Freedom Rating [no longer think this will happen. But as promised, carried over as-is from last set of predictions; will know in early February]: 50% Correct

European Politics

  • No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions in any EU country (>100 deaths): 95%
  • No EU country schedules a referendum for EU exit in 2017: 90%
  • No country leaves the Eurozone: 95%
  • 5 Star Movement will win the Italian general elections: 60%.
  • Fidesz wins a majority of seats in the 2018 Hungarian parliamentary elections: 95%
  • Angela Merkel will no longer be German Chancellor: 60%.
  • New Labour wins more than it loses in UK local elections: 70%.
  • Catalonia will not be an independent state de facto or de jure: 95%
  • No Islamic terrorist attack in Europe causing more than 100 deaths: 70%.

Culture & Human Interest

  • Germany will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 80%
  • Russia will fail to advance past the group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 60%.
  • Russia will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 99%
  • GRRM publishes Winds of Winter: 70%.
  • UNQUANTIFIED: Daenerys dies, Theon lives (in the show):
  • UNQUANTIFIED: Influence of the Alt Right declines.
  • Mount & Blade: Bannerlord released: 80%
  • Cyberpunk 2077 not released: 90%
  • Sputnik and Pogrom above 1 million monthly visitors again as of November 2018 (SimilarWeb), despite it being blocked in Russia: 80%
  • The Unz Review has more pageviews than in 2017: 80%.

Not going to do a detailed roundup on The AK, but in brief:

  • Am still in Russia, am working on PhD, did do hard drugs this year but did not get plastered.
  • Visited Romania, Portugal, UK; didn’t visit any other of the places enumerated there.
  • Great successes in blogging continue (more details in my next post), but failed with review goals.
  • Have authored one paper but it hasn’t been formally accepted yet, so that doesn’t count; haven’t fulfilled any of the other projects apart from the RationalWiki hagiography, unfortunately.
Prediction Confidence % Correct [World] % Correct [The AK] % Correct [Total]
50% 32% 8% 23%
60% 50% 60% 53%
70% 67% 38% 53%
80% 72% 67% 71%
90% 89% 71% 84%
95% 100% 75% 95%
99% 100% 100%

In my last predictions thread, I left the following note to myself:

PS. Note for future self: Tally correct/incorrect world and personal predictions separately; also combine and analyze them for the past several years.

This seems especially important, now that I have decided to give up on predictions calibrations.

Here are the total results for the following years.

Prediction Confidence 2018 2017 2016 TOTAL
50% 23% 25% 50% 33%
60% 53% 50% 17% 40%
70% 53% 64% 80% 66%
80% 71% 93% 88% 84%
90% 84% 94% 90% 89%
95% 95% 94% 100% 96%
99% 100% 100% 100% 100%

It would be nice to do this for world and personal predictions separately – in that case, the gap between reality and the 50% confidence level would substantially narrow, since I tend to do badly there by overestimating the success rate of my projects (e.g. have still failed to write any books) – but I didn’t tally the data separately in the past two years, and having to count them all over again would be too much bother.

 

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Prediction, Rationality 
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  1. songbird says:

    Betting against nuclear war is always a safe bet. If you are wrong, the other party has to be a real A-hole to collect, and odds are you’ll both be shadow-stains, anyways.

    • LOL: Hyperborean
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  2. @songbird

    No, wrong, that was supposed to be LOL.

  3. DFH says:

    Jared Kushner no longer in the White House

    Angela Merkel will no longer be German Chancellor

    Mount & Blade: Bannerlord released

    Sad that some of these didn’t come true

  4. am working on PhD

    what about? I hope it’s got nothing to do with Ukraine.
    I assume this will limit your blogging (maybe it already has), seems difficult to do both at the same time.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  5. Aly says:

    Any chance you write something big about demographics? When I say “big” i mean some serious analisis and bold predictions like you did a decade ago, and I think that made you famous more then any other stuff you wrote.
    Or maybe there is only so much to write about demographics, or you don’t consider that as important as before?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  6. Dmitry says:
    @German_reader

    Somewhere in a meeting between demographics and psychometrics, maybe he is creating some new academic discipline?

  7. Dmitry says:
    @Aly

    Karlin is an expert in this topic.

    But demographics of Russia, is discussed quite a lot in ordinary jouranlism, in mainstream media now.

    If I remember an article I read recently:

    1. Total fertility rate is probably stabilizing to about 1,5 children per women.

    2. In addition, current cohort of fertile women is becoming proportionally a smaller part of the population until the 2030s. (because of the ‘echo effect’)

    Now it is below 11 births per thousand.

    3. Life expectancy is increasing.

    4. Immigration is falling significantly,

    Objective conclusion is need to –

    1. Raise pension ages to match increases in life expectancy.

    2. Increase worker productivity.

    And then some arguments about

    3. Are government’s policies like maternity capital with a significant impact, or just changing timings of births.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @Mr. XYZ
    , @Aly
  8. My prediction that Melania would divorce trump and marry Putin did not plan out.

    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  9. Can you do a similar prediction for 2019?

    Some highlights or big events I think will happen:

    1. Ukrainian elections. Likely the beginning of a pivot from a giant version of Saakashvili’s Georgia to a giant version of current-year Georgia. Pro-Russian sentiments have already climbed back to 50%, and Russia remains the most familiar overseas market for Ukrainian businessmen. Poroshenko as popular as Yushchenko in 2010.

    2. Trump now under a Democrat Congress. Longest shutdown in history. Preparation for 2020 elections.

    3. Russophobia evolves into Russophrenia.

    4. The EU core seems to be dialing back Russophrenia, turning a corner around the World Cup.

    5. Gilets Jaunes still haven’t given up.

    6. Trade war with the US will likely cause China to go through another round of reforms.

    7. Syria re-admitted to the Arab League. Likely large scale resumption of commerce and re-opening of international airports and border crossings in Assad-controlled regions this year.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  10. AP says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Likely the beginning of a pivot from a giant version of Saakashvili’s Georgia to a giant version of current-year Georgia.

    I wouldn’t rule this out, though the pivot would not go quite as far as the Georgian one.

    Poroshenko as popular as Yushchenko in 2010.

    Not true. Poroshenko is the second most popular politician in Ukraine (at worst, a close third). They are all unpopular, but still – he will probably get into the second round before losing there. Yushchenko wasn’t close to that.

    If it comes down to Tymoshenko vs. Poroshenko there are a lot of unknown variables. Will enough Easterners see Tymoshenko as a lesser evil and vote for her in the hope that she will be like a post-Saak Georgian leader? Will a lot of undecided nationalists overcome their anger at the poor anticorruption efforts and come to Poroshenko? It is likely Tymoshenko will win but I wouldn’t count out Poroshenko yet and it will be closer than you might think.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @AquariusAnon
  11. Mr. XYZ says:

    Anatoly, could you please be willing to do this specific prediction for us? : Predict the percentage of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and various Ukrainian cities in 2020 (which is apparently when the next Ukrainian census is going to be).

    I want to know if you think a large number of ethnic Russians in Ukraine are going to identify as Ukrainians in 2020 in response to the events of the last several years.

  12. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Just how far did the Georgian pivot go?

    • Replies: @g2k
  13. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Positive Dennis

    LOL! I guess that Putin didn’t put in his wee-wee in Melania’s pussy last year.

    (Sorry. I couldn’t resist making this pun.)

  14. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    Why do you think that the Russian TFR will fall even further?

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    , @Dmitry
  15. @AP

    Galicia is the only region that is actually anti-Russian. Central Ukraine seems to be pretty mixed, likely eager to restore economic but not political/military relations. Kiev needs these 10+ flights a day to Moscow restored, and it seems everybody except for Galicians continue to speak Russian as a second language, follow Russian entertainment, and would love to use the Runet without VPNs.

    Of course East Ukraine won’t stop being pro-Russia.

    Even if Ukraine doesn’t approach post-Saakashvili Georgia’s Russia-friendliness, it will probably be at least where China-Taiwan relations are nowadays. The fact that Ukraine still hasn’t cut off formal diplomatic ties with Russia is very telling.

    Ukraine simply can’t survive as a functional country without resuming high volumes of trade, travel, intertwined media markets, and air/rail traffic with Russia, even if it continues being a military adversary.

    What I don’t see a bright future for is Donbass. Even Damascus with such a damaging war is still bustling with activity, but Donetsk seems to be a ghost town.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @AP
    , @Jon0815
    , @Mitleser
  16. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry

    Why do you think that the Russian TFR will fall even further?

  17. Anonnua says:

    Just make a post on CMP & Industrial future this year while you work on your PhD & await becoming unpersoned by Russian Libs. Tnx,

  18. Mr. Hack says:
    @AquariusAnon

    What I don’t see a bright future for is Donbass. Even Damascus with such a damaging war is still bustling with activity, but Donetsk seems to be a ghost town.

    I don’t know if things are really all that much beter in Crimea today. This report shows various aspects of Crimean life. People prefer pharmaceuticals from Ukraine; Business shenanigans by a company that makes plexi-glass windows both in Crimea and in Kherson; various opinions about the new Ukrainian Orthodox church; Crimean Tartars being hassled by their new Russian overlords. you be the judge of any ‘progress’.

    blob:https://ua.krymr.com/cb07afca-5c8d-4936-ad3a-5b9a27fb8b1c

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  19. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Delusional Svido BS:

    I don’t know if things are really all that much beter in Crimea today. This report shows various aspects of Crimean life. People prefer pharmaceuticals from Ukraine; Business shenanigans by a company that makes plexi-glass windows both in Crimea and in Kherson; various opinions about the new Ukrainian Orthodox church; Crimean Tartars being hassled by their new Russian overlords. you be the judge of any ‘progress’.

    blob:https://ua.krymr.com/cb07afca-5c8d-4936-ad3a-5b9a27fb8b1c

    The above link leads to a not found message. Actually, Crimea at large isn’t looking to go back to Ukraine, in sharp contrast to Svido wishful thinking.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  20. Ender says:

    Sorry to sound like a negative Nancy, but you cannot get a wholesale cultural shift in society without at least a significant portion of the elite deciding to throw their lot with you, which is how Northern Europe shifted to Protestantism, or how Europe was Christianized, or how the Byzantines adopted Eastern Orthodoxy, where the elite in those places decided it was in their interests to side with the new order, over the prevailing establishment. So changes may come from the grassroots, but you also need the cooperation, or at least the nonresistance of the elite (because they know which way the wind is blowing) those changes to take hold.

    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
  21. @Ender

    This is probably the biggest reason why I think Ukraine and Russia ties will be more or less normalized soon. Even Poroshenko would love his Lipetsk factory back and even he probably knows his chocolate can’t seriously compete with European brands like Lindt or Godiva in the rest of the world. Russia was responsible for 40% of his total sales.

    Russia is the only major, relevant country Ukrainian products or people are actually competitive in.

    Otherwise, they are free to join the Sinosphere though. Hohol models are cheaper and look similar to Russian ones, and hohols can be great “Canadian” English teachers teaching hohol “English”.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  22. @Mr. XYZ

    He’s a Jew and likes to see the goyim suffer.

    The upside is that Jews live in their own metal bubbles and confuse reality with their desires, so it evens out in the end.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  23. Ender says:

    If Washington made a deal with Beijing under which it will get a lot better coverage from the Western media in return for legalizing gay marriage, say 5 years from now, what is the chance that Beijing will take up the deal? I mean the CPC will be allowed to rule Beijing for perpetuity as long as it adopts progressive social attitudes.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  24. Aly says:
    @Dmitry

    I know that a number of fertile women is decreasing but still goal should be to increase fertility rate or at least stabilise at some higher level (1.7 at minimum). That way you fix at least a little bit effects of catastrophic slump in the ’90s when fertility rate was around 1.2.
    Unfortunately fertility rate is falling, although I would say it is stabilising at about 1.6 level, not 1.5. But that is not good of course.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Dmitry
  25. @Ender

    If Washington made a deal with Beijing under which it will get a lot better coverage from the Western media in return for legalizing gay marriage, say 5 years from now, what is the chance that Beijing will take up the deal?

    In they don’t care so much about that (yet), so far American propaganda outlets and officials are mainly concerned about ‘human/womens’ rights’ and ethnic minorities (it used to be the Tibetans, but now the Uyghurs are in favour).

    But I think Beijing prefers to buy up/threaten hostile media instead. They have already got several Hollywood films and video games to change the bad guys from Chinese to Russians/North Koreans.

    • Replies: @Ender
    , @songbird
  26. Daniel.I says:

    By “hard drugs” you mean LSD ?

  27. Ender says:
    @Hyperborean

    Maybe Putin and the Soliviki were offered the same deal by the West 10 years ago, and they refused to bite? Hence the image problems they have now? You know that the children of Chinese elites study in US academic institutions right, and so are likely to care about what their classmates think of them, and hence are likely to be more sympathetic to socially liberal causes just to fit in?

    • Replies: @g2k
  28. g2k says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    They’re pretty much back to pre-Saakashvili sentiments. Vaguely euro-altanticist but much more realistic.

  29. g2k says:
    @Ender

    There’s enough Chinese students at most western universities for them to never have to socialise with non-chinese which is generally what happens. That’s not to say that they’re always totally insular; they consume western high culture to a much greater extent than the natives and appreciate the good points of living here, but, on the whole, they dont discuss politics very much or pick up very much ‘progressive’ crap.

  30. Predictions
    Crimea will be getting more Russian as a result of self-identification.

    Ukrainian population in Russia will shrink due to assimilation and low birth rates. Children of mixed parentage will increaslingly identify as Ukrainian. People who self identify as Russian currently will shift to identifying as Ukrainian.

    Russian population in the territory of Kiev Ukraine will shrink due to emigration, lower birth rates(than Ukrainians and others), lower than average life expectancy and change in self-identifiaction from Russian to Ukrainian.

    Factors:
    Births +
    Deaths –
    Immigration +
    Emigration –
    Assimilation + or –

  31. Sean says:

    Artificial General Intelligence or superintelligence do not happen: 99%

    That we know about. I would knock 9% off for the next year because AlphaZero was a definite step closer to generalizing. Eliezer Yudkowsky said it was surprising and maybe AlphaZero is the kind of thing that happens all across the Universe before the world ends, maybe 5 years before or maybe 50 years before.

  32. @German_reader

    What are you on about, nobody knows more about the Ukraine than I do.

    But no, it’s not about it. Dmitry guessed correct. Incidentally, I was not planning to do a PhD, but since I’m actually getting paid for it, why not.

    I don’t actually think it will have a major impact. To be sure, it will take up quite a lot of time, but OTOH, my living conditions have improved drastically as of the end of 2018.

  33. @Aly

    There was a huge disconnect between media rhetoric and reality on Russian demographics in the late 2000s, it doesn’t really exist as much today.

    Hence yes, not a lot to write about it. Seems that it will stabilize at around 1.7, or my Medium (modified) scenario from 2008. I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6 is temporary, or at least won’t decline further. Russians’ desired TFR is at around 2.5 children per woman, and this figure is usually 0.5-1 children higher than realized TFR, so TFR = 1.5 would be at the lowest end of that range.

    Though Russia has if anything overperformed my life expectancy projections, where it is tracking the High scenario.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  34. @Mr. Hack

    I don’t know…

    Harsh, but true.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  35. AP says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Galicia is the only region that is actually anti-Russian.

    A lot of central Ukraine has become anti-Russian too. Central Ukraine now is more anti-Russian than Galicia was in 2013. I suspect there has also been a shift (though not as strong) in southern/eastern Ukraine but I don’t know those parts as well.

    I have a lot of central Ukrainian relatives and the shift I’ve seen in them has been enormous. One of therm got estranged from their own brother in Moscow due to nationalism.

    Central Ukraine seems to be pretty mixed, likely eager to restore economic but not political/military relations.

    Eager is too strong a word. But it would benefit economically from better ties. For Galicia it simply would not matter economically, it’s doing fine without Russia, better now than ever before.

    Of course East Ukraine won’t stop being pro-Russia

    It’s more complicated. The extreme anti-Russian groups such as Azov are from Eastern Ukraine, too. Over 50% soft pro-Russia (wants economic and even political ties restored, but still opposes Donbas-type rebellion and Crimean takeover), but mixed with extreme anti-Russian elements, particularly among youths.

    Even if Ukraine doesn’t approach post-Saakashvili Georgia’s Russia-friendliness, it will probably be at least where China-Taiwan relations are nowadays

    If it goes in this direction – very realistic.

    Ukraine simply can’t survive as a functional country without resuming high volumes of trade, travel, intertwined media markets, and air/rail traffic with Russia

    It would function still better economically with them, but it’s functioning fine without them. 3+% GDP growth, paying off debts, etc. etc. The East is in bad shape, but the West is the best it has been since World War II, and the Center is in the middle. A lot of Ukrainians, the plurality, think the price is worth it, to get the country out of Russia’s orbit. It’s why parties who want to restore full economic ties aren’t getting more than 30% support nationally and are only over 50% in the East (not even in the South).

  36. “China’s GDP grows by 6.5%+: 50% Current growth around 6.7% for third 3 quarters so likely true unless tumbles now.”

    Only if you believe official statistics.

  37. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Were you able to locate the video clip? It’s within ‘Crimea Realities’, it’s titles Windows on Crimea (1/12/19), in Ukrainian:

    blob:https://ua.krymr.com/adbf5c1c-417a-4fb3-b33d-a5b8cf01ec29

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  38. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    What exactly is delusional within my quotation? I was just summarizing what one would encounter if you watched the clip. I made no judgments about the content, you moron. 🙁

    Don’t wet your Holy Rus underwear, Mickey!

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  39. Silva says:

    “Incidentally, this was probably the last series of quantitative predictions I am going to do. Ultimately, there are markets for this sort of thing.” – I always thought the point of those was showing how good *you* are as an analyst to people considering reading your other work, not trying to outdo anyone else per se. Also, wasn’t the 50% level meaningless, since each is equally a “prediction” of the opposite?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  40. songbird says:
    @AquariusAnon

    In hindsight, it should have been pretty easy to predict that we would have the longest shutdown at about this time – if we accept that the US is becoming increasingly dysfunctional as a result of demographic change.

    If Trump declares an emergency, I expect the courts to nullify it. Still, I think it would be a good thing for the next Gibbon to write about.

  41. songbird says:
    @Hyperborean

    One of my pet peeves with Hollywood is the profusion of Nazi villains. Obviously, a big part of it is explained by predilection, but I think there is also a commercial aspect to it. Germans are more willing to accept Germans as villains than other countries are willing to accept themselves as villains.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @DFH
    , @Mikhail
  42. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    Germans are more willing to accept Germans as villains than other countries are willing to accept themselves as villains.

    Maybe they know something about Germans that others don’t? 🙂

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Silva
  43. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    According the early data, for 2018, it was in the high end of 1,5 range, while fall in fertility rate in 2018 was multiple times less than the fall in 2017 hence “stabilization”. I don’t say it will fall further.

    What will be a fertility rate in future years you can’t predict.

  44. neutral says:

    You need to quickly add in a prediction if Brexit is going to happen or not.

  45. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6

    For 2018, according to the early information, I saw in the media it will probably be in the high end of 1,5 range – have you calculated.

    . I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6 is temporary, or at least won’t decline further.

    You predict increases similar to this view (for Germany)
    http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-579.pdf

  46. Dmitry says:
    @anonymous coward

    Strange comment from you Anonymous coward = you are the same guy who does not know Russian, but was saying to me last week that common insults of Russian are special, Jewish words.

    Until I was in Karlin’s blog, I never meet such characters.

  47. @Silva

    No, because whole point is that with fifty percent confidence you are expected to get half right and half wrong.

    Ergo for the other levels.

    One can also view quantitative 50 percent predictions as actual predictions. So, in this respect, my btc prediction was extraordinarily accurate, while my oil prediction was pretty bad.

    • Replies: @Silva
  48. @Mr. Hack

    I honestly couldn’t care less what any Ukrainian video says about Crimea. The Crimean economy has boomed, there is massive infrastructure coming online (see the new Simferopol airport), wages and pensions have soared, Galician country bumpkins who brought their own salo have been replaced with proper Russian tourists who actually pay up, opinion polls say that 90 percent of Crimeans approve of the annexation, and all the people I have met with connections to Crimea are of a similar mind.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  49. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I know you’re joking, but I attribute the unfolding of world wars primarily to geopolitics, Germany being the largest ethnic nation in Western Europe. If France had been larger, it would have been more aggressive. Or replace Germans with the English and it would have been the English – just look at the response to the Kruger Telegram. Or how in the American Civil War, it was the North that invaded the South.

    That’s part of why the potential complete takeover of Germany is so worrying. Not that a super-enriched Germany would be very formidable – just their opponents would not have much in the way of numbers.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  50. DFH says:
    @songbird

    Are there even that many German villains outside of Nazi films?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @songbird
  51. Dmitry says:
    @Aly

    For 2017, it was 1,62. In 2018, it was fallen below 1,6 (although not all months data released yet).

    But the authorities say they will increase it back to 1,7 by the year 2024.

    Obviously, it’s mainly independently from them.

    At the same time, life expectancy increases, and immigration falls. GDP per capita will continue to increase and unemployment rates will be falling.

  52. Silva says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I understand for the other levels. But for 50%, if you’d – by chance – written the opposite of any (or each) you’d be writing the same actual prediction yet reversing the verdict – how does that work? To allow actual distinctions, shouldn’t you pick economic indicator amounts for which you’re more than 50% confident?

  53. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    That may all be true, however, the video clip clearly indicates that Crimeans are fed up with getting less than satisfactory Russian pharmaceuticals. As you live in Russia and have made it clear that you do not experience these deprivations and in fact seem to enjoy a steady supply of ‘hard drugs’ presumably of high quality, I was hoping that you might chime in and offer your vantage point, or at the very least, suggest where desperate Crimeans might be able to access more credible sources? 🙂

    • Replies: @AP
    , @DreadIlk
  54. Mr. Hack says:
    @songbird

    I’m not following you…first you seem to be opining for a stronger German response towards biased, misinformed propaganda tilted towards disparaging German morality, and then you offer an opinion that seems to warn against a ‘super-enriched Germany’ that would be overbearing towards its ‘opponents’. I suppose in a perfect world you could have it both ways? But where is anything perfect?

    • Replies: @songbird
  55. Mr. Hack says:
    @DFH

    The King of England is now a Nazi??…

    • Replies: @German_reader
  56. songbird says:
    @DFH

    They’re mostly Nazis, but often not contemporaneous to WW2. Main exception I can think of is “Die Hard.” Another thing in their favor might be the good iconography of Nazism. But oftentimes, even when they are not Germans, it seems as though they are meant to be evocative of Germans – Neo-nazis with light hair and blue eyes.

    English villains might even be the most common. But I suspect that mainly comes from two things: 1.) the plethora and relative cheapness of English actors. 2.) The way people appreciate a cultivated accent in villains – makes them seem more formidable. Of course, #1 doesn’t explain why you have people like Lin-Manuel Miranda being cast as Englishmen. ( in the right light he might pass for a Sephardic Jew, but that’s about it)

  57. Mikhail says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Re: https://ua.krymr.com/cb07afca-5c8d-4936-ad3a-5b9a27fb8b1c

    What exactly is delusional within my quotation? I was just summarizing what one would encounter if you watched the clip. I made no judgments about the content, you moron. 🙁

    Don’t wet your Holy Rus underwear, Mickey!

    You’d be great in “The gang that couldn’t shoot straight”. Once again, that link leads to a “not found” message. Meantime, this is what you said as you posted that link:

    I don’t know if things are really all that much beter in Crimea today. This report shows various aspects of Crimean life. People prefer pharmaceuticals from Ukraine; Business shenanigans by a company that makes plexi-glass windows both in Crimea and in Kherson; various opinions about the new Ukrainian Orthodox church; Crimean Tartars being hassled by their new Russian overlords. you be the judge of any ‘progress’.

    blob:https://ua.krymr.com/cb07afca-5c8d-4936-ad3a-5b9a27fb8b1c

    I replied as follows:

    The above link leads to a not found message. Actually, Crimea at large isn’t looking to go back to Ukraine, in sharp contrast to Svido wishful thinking.

    For your own sake, you need some serious help.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  58. songbird says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Zeitgeist was a factor in the world wars.

    Say what you like about the culpability of ethnic Germans – even if it were somehow all true, and Germany ethnically re-established to its demographic peak, it would in no way be as dangerous as a billion Nigerians living in the strategic heart of Europe.

    • Agree: fish
  59. Silva says:
    @Mr. Hack

    “Unlike Italians who let out their emotions in small, controlled eruptions, the Germans hold them inside until they burst. (…) Germans constantly fight against a mental blackness. (…) They know they are better than everyone else.”

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/dynamic-determined-and-driven/#comment-2615913

    (Wonder how much this is also valid for Swedes, Koreans, and Japanese. According to Emmanuel Todd, they have another thing in common besides being awesome: the same family model.)

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  60. Mikhail says: • Website
    @songbird

    One of my pet peeves with Hollywood is the profusion of Nazi villains. Obviously, a big part of it is explained by predilection, but I think there is also a commercial aspect to it. Germans are more willing to accept Germans as villains than other countries are willing to accept themselves as villains.

    Up to a certain point. Multiple sources tell me that at least one US made film featured in Germany Die Hard with a Vengeance (mentioned by songbird at this thread), had translated the German bad guys in that film into Russians.

    Circa 1990s to the present, Germans at large (especially in mass media and body politic), have been among the most anti-Serb, for a reason that seems to dwell on the notion that Germans aren’t the only ones doing bad WW II like manner – never minding that the wars in former Yugo were nowhere near as gruesome as what the Nazis did.

    In the case of the Serbs, I also sense that a good number of Germans see the Serbs as pesky mini-Russians, who gave the Germans a hard time in two world wars.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  61. @Mikhail

    Germans at large (especially in mass media and body politic), have been among the most anti-Serb, for a reason that seems to dwell on the notion that Germans aren’t the only ones doing bad WW II like manner

    Casting Serbs as the new Nazis was a general Western phenomenon; in Germany it was actually most pronounced among those like Joschka Fischer (who justified the Kosovo war with reference to Auschwitz) who like to wallow in German guilt and are strongly anti-national.
    The only German specialty imo was the sympathy of some Catholics, especially in Bavaria, for Croatia; the rest was just standard transatlantic liberalism.

  62. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mikhail

    Is you shrink available? Does he vacation in Arizona during the wintertime?…

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  63. Dmitry says:
    @Aly

    That way you fix at least a little bit effects of catastrophic slump in the ’90s when fertility rate was around 1.2.

    From 1993, this some of the “severity” of the decline in total period fertility rate (which falls eventually to 1,2) is less, when you remove exaggerated statistical artifact by the “tempo effect” (raising age of childbirth).

  64. Mr. Hack says:
    @Silva

    I once worked for a highly intelligent, extremely emotional A personality type Italian. What an experience! I’ve only had close encounters with Germans (in America) 2-3 times in my life. From my perspective, they can actually be very sweet people, but at times they do seem to pander for your approval. All of the nationalities have gifted and incredible people. The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Hypnotoad666
  65. DFH says:
    @Mr. Hack

    doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color

    Imagine falling for Jewish memes this hard (you are Ukranian I guess)

    This is what they produce living in the centre of the world’s culture around people desperate to promote them.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  66. @Mr. Hack

    Have you seen Mel Gibson’s “The patriot”? Demonstrated conclusively that the Waffen-SS modeled its behaviour (locking civilians in churches and burning them) on that of British redcoats.
    George III was the original Hitler.
    (also relevant: that South Park episode about “America’s oldest enemy”).

    • LOL: DFH
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  67. By now, it is evident that TFR beyond replacement level is completely incompatible with modern high tech civilization. There should be no illusions about that.

    Women just don’t want to have more than 1-2 children. They do want children, vast majority of them, but not 3-4 or more. It’s women who matter since fatherhood has never been such a powerful force for males, and now it’s rapidly declining.

    This goes for advanced races, whites & Asians.

    Only religion can keep women in business of birthing; when they cease to believe or submit to men as the standard of behavior, say goodbye to sustainable levels of replacement fertility.

    Other races & groups (dot Indians, blacks, Muslims, various Mestizos,…) will have high fertility & will replace liberal whites causing dystopian nightmare & collapse of global society; or, they’ll be expelled & put under some sort of quasi-Nazi supervision.

    We are in the transitional period when, perhaps, options are:

    * most of the advanced world will collapse & most/many of non-whites & non-yellows will die out in global famines, diseases etc.
    * universalist humanism will be ditched & UN dissolved, with global south put under strict control re breeding, liberty & basic human rights
    * in next 30-50 years maybe, maybe some genetic engineering advances will happen, but not at the large scale
    * next 200-400 years? Say goodbye to homo sapiens as we knew him in past 150,000 years. Either replaced or exterminated.

  68. @Bardon Kaldian

    Women just don’t want to have more than 1-2 children.

    iirc actual number of children is usually lower than ideal number in Western societies though (that means women have fewer children than they want…or at least claim to want), so there should be some room for improvement.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
  69. Mr. Hack says:
    @German_reader

    Why are you telling me this? Have I suggested anywhere that the German nation was somehow the primary source of barbarism for subsequent national disorders?

    • LOL: German_reader
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  70. Mr. Hack says:
    @DFH

    I don’t have time to reply right now. But will come back to this later…

  71. songbird says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    People are still evolving, which makes definitive predictions difficult.

    One of my female ancestors had 16 children. Of course that was before birth control, but get a few white women like that in modern times and gene frequencies will quickly shift.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  72. Mitleser says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Russia is the only major, relevant country Ukrainian products or people are actually competitive in.

    But does the RF want this competition?

  73. @Bardon Kaldian

    That, or 1-2 centuries of selection for higher fertility preferences. (This is happening by default).

    Incidentally, democratic access to gene editing technologies should accelerate the process. People want grandchildren, and what better way to ensure it than to make sure your own progeny are breeders.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  74. @German_reader

    Grand plans may sound optimistic, but I’ve long since ceased to believe in them. If we set aside extreme futurist alterations a la Asimov’s “Foundation”, we have a rather simple picture:

    * human beings live, normally, in communities: tribes, peoples, nations, …. differing in cultures, customs, languages, myths, loyalties, laws, …

    * the basic unit is monogamous family. Never mind India, China, Islam, …-polygamy was for a select few, rich & powerful. Man & woman & children, family- that is human life.

    * women, virtually all of them, want their man, want children & family. This is the center of their life. Perhaps 15% of them will never have children (health, environmental changes, “destiny”, ..). They want, basically, soft patriarchy; they want their men to be superior, but not brutes & savages. Also, they want some financial independence & a decent level of education, not to be confined to drudgery of purely domestic life. That’s what makes them happy (plus some chocolate).

    Some women with “male brain” may have different priorities, but they’re in the minority.

    * that goes for modern women, white & some Asian. Others, like black females, Muslim women (most of them), Mestizo women, dot Indian females & feather Indian women, various colored mixtures in SE Asia … will, in a foreseeable future, retain their traditional roles of male exchange commodities & essentially men’s slaves. They will remain religious sex & satisfied with it. Not only feminism, but basic women’s rights don’t mean much to them. It is in their nature, particularly re Africans: https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2018/02/08/the-particularism-of-white-morality/

    .. Senegal was not a hellhole. Very poor people can lead happy, meaningful lives in their own cultures’ terms. But they are not our terms. The excrement is the least of it. Our basic ideas of human relations, right and wrong, are incompatible. […]

    Take something as basic as family. Family was a few hundred people, extending out to second and third cousins. All the men in one generation were called “father.” Senegalese are Muslim, with up to four wives. Girls had their clitorises cut off at puberty. (I witnessed this, at what I thought was going to be a nice coming-of-age ceremony, like a bat mitzvah or confirmation.) Sex, I was told, did not include kissing. Love and friendship in marriage were Western ideas. Fidelity was not a thing. Married women would have sex for a few cents to have cash for the market.

    What I did witness every day was that women were worked half to death. Wives raised the food and fed their own children, did the heavy labor of walking miles to gather wood for the fire, drew water from the well or public faucet, pounded grain with heavy hand-held pestles, lived in their own huts, and had conjugal visits from their husbands on a rotating basis with their co-wives. Their husbands lazed in the shade of the trees.

    * there is no going back in history. Socialists in the 2nd half of the 19th C had progressed with their liberation of women, then this became universal way of behavior in civilized world across the globe & this issue is settled, permanently (for Europeans & their descendants). Those who think that women should give up voting rights; that they should – most of them- remain housewives, that they should give up education & financial independence are delusional. These male movements, men’s separatism, …. this all is reactionary stupidity not worth discussing. An aside- gay “marriage” is actually a non-issue. It is unimportant & does not have any real significance in modern world re stable family structure & fertility.

    So, in immortal Chernyshevsky’s words: What is to be done?

    Later….

    *

    • Replies: @DFH
  75. Dmitry says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Reaction of politicians to low birth rates is more dangerous than low birth rates themselves, when they decide to improve the dependency ratio of their welfare projects by immigration.

    An aging population has various benefits and costs (costs mainly to financial situation of a government with increasing dependency ratio). But the greatest cost is only when politicians try to solve by importing people from less developed countries.

    In itself, aging population is resulting in:

    More political stability.

    More conservative population (less probability of political revolution).

    Lower unemployment rates.

    Higher GDP per capita, rising salaries.

    Easy transition of young people into the employment (as there will be more job opportunities than graduates).

    Negatives –
    Dependency ratio increasing – need to unpopularly raise pension ages (concept of being a pensioner needs to be reconceived).

    Politicians open borders to try to reduce dependency ratio via foreign workers/gastarbaiters.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  76. DFH says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Also, they want some financial independence & a decent level of education, not to be confined to drudgery of purely domestic life. That’s what makes them happy

    Education, yes, but women actually wanting ‘careers’ is (for most women) something they’re brainwashed into and because of an obsession with status. I doubt many women would really prefer working as tax accountants to looking after their own children otherwise.

    financial independence

    Very few women with children are ‘financially independent’ without state subsidies or money forcibly confiscated from their husbands

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    , @LondonBob
  77. @DFH

    They want happiness and family and security and freedom and independence and submission to their man. These are incompatible goals, but they can, possibly, be achieved in a delicate balance. And perhaps- not.

    But, there is no, as far as modern women are concerned, going back to basic primitive female nature these Palestinian Arab females exemplify:

  78. AP says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I suspect the stuff Ukrainians say about Crimea is about as accurate as the stuff Russians say about Ukraine. Some friends from Moscow visited Crimea and their impressions were very positive. A caveat may be that losing water from Ukraine will be bad for agricultural enterprises, but tourism and money sent from Russia more than compensates for this. Also – the Crimeans who were against Russian rule (such as the ethnic Ukrainian boxer Usyk, and many Crimean Tatars) have largely left, while many Russian settlers have arrived. So strictly from a population perspective, never mind due to economics, the place is more pro-Russian than before.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  79. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mr. Hack

    Wack jobs like yourself are known for thinking that normal others are wacked.

  80. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Did a lot of Tatars leave Crimea after the 2014 census there? I know that the Tatar percentage in Crimea was unchanged between 2001 and 2014 (which is when the last two censuses there were conducted).

    • Replies: @Swarthy Greek
    , @AP
  81. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If one could select for fertility preferences in embryos, one might wonder as to exactly what other traits one could select for in embryos.

    Also, in a sense, this would be really creepy since one’s personality, preferences, et cetera are going to be directly chosen by one’s parents instead of it being a result of nature.

  82. Assigning probabilities to your prediction confidence and then reviewing the results afterward is a great practice. Call it “truth in punditry.” For obvious reasons, 99% of professional prognosticators would never do this (how’s that for a prediction).

    But one interesting aspect of the practice is that — depending on one’s philosophy about uncertainty — it doesn’t really say anything about the accuracy of individual predictions.

    For example, if you estimated a 70% probability of event X happening and it didn’t happen, no one can say the probability wasn’t exactly 70% when you made the prediction. You could have been exactly right on the odds but the dice just happened to roll the less likely 30% outcome (which will, of course, happen 30% of the time).

    But when you aggregate your confidence levels and compare them with the actual outcomes (e.g., how often your 30%, 50% and 70% predictions come true), it does begin to create a pretty valid method for measuring your predictive powers — the confidence in your confidence, one might say.

    The next level of analysis that would be interesting would be to compare your predicted outcomes to the conventional wisdom.* It’s like football betting: predictions are only valuable if they can beat the established point spread, or the over-under line. A prognosticator should definitely get more points for predicting deviations from the conventional wisdom.

    *Admittedly, this would be hard, as the SOP of professional pundits is to hedge everything so that they always have plausible deniability. (For example, “I think this is definitely something that may happen . . .”).

  83. Mikhail says: • Website

    On the subject of territorial disputes concerning Russia:

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/15/national/politics-diplomacy/moscow-calls-russia-held-isles-outcome-wwii-sees-significant-differences-tokyo-sovereignty/#.XD0LzWlOm1s

    Germany lost territory at the end of WW II, with much less fuss made. The comparative hoopla over Crimea (relative to Kosovo and northern Cyprus) and the Kuril Islands, are indicative of a gross hypocrisy.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    , @LondonBob
  84. @Mr. Hack

    The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

    Subjective matters of taste are obviously at issue in deciding who is an artistic genius. But it seems to me that outlier groups may have a built-in advantage in perceived “creativity” simply because they are different from the norm.

    What’s conventional in one sub-culture may seem very novel and edgy to the mainstream.

  85. @Mr. XYZ

    No. Most Tatars complaining about russian persecution/Genocide… are either Islamists or Panturkist fanatics like Mustafa Dzermilev that call for the ethnic cleansing of Russians from the whole peninsula , whom they claim are colonizers, despite the fact that Crimea had been part of Rus’ and Byzantium prior to the mongol invasions that accompanied Turkic migrations.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mikhail
  86. Mitleser says:
    @Mikhail

    Germany lost territory at the end of WW II, with much less fuss made.

    Not sure if this was a good thing.

    On the other hand, the Japanese approach, having territorial disputes with all (three) neighbours is also stupid.

  87. So, what is to be done, with us whites & some Asians?

    Despite all the differences from Norwegians to Italians & from Irish to Russians, we’re in the same mess. We know that real clincher was the pill & sexual licentiousness from 60ies/70ies. From that period, there is no turning back.

    Yet, women want marriage,man, family, children, shopping & easier life with financial security and more interesting life with something more than central stuff, children. This is achievable.

    What is not achievable is 3-5 babies per average educated woman. This is absolutely impossible.

    1. too many kids, after some time they become annoying

    2. always around them, a mother does not have a life of her own, even a slice of it

    3. because contemporary culture’s pressure that “kids must have all”, it is financially impossible for a middle class couple to give all to their 3, 4.. babies.

    There is a need for cultural paradigm shift in whole Western world, and this cannot be simply planned. There are two extremes that should be addressed first, because of …later.

    Israeli Jews have TFR beyond replacement level, and they are the only developed nation with that characteristic, an anomaly. But: a) a significant part of it is demographic race with Arabs. Without enemy as that, why would Czechs or Norwegians rise their TFR? b) a big chunk goes to religious- not ultra-Orthodox- Jews/Jewesses, who somehow accept male dominance & traditional lifestyle at home (just- they do not stay confined to home: mothers of 4-5 children have PhD from Harvard in psychology or mom of 3 kids is a pediatrician).

    So, you have to have a national culture where religion, not too restrictive to status of females, does play a role & women are ennobled by their role in the whole fabric of society. Religion should be best thisworldly, with cooking, food, various taboos & family rituals- not theologically or metaphysically too heavy and exacting.

    As with the Japanese & their abysmal birth rate, what is to be done? Japanese religious movements are mostly hyper-macho wildings; they don’t anymore have a balanced approach to religiosity in family life & don’t care about family as such. Oppressive sides of their family life seem, due to perverted & distorted Confucian & Buddhist traditions, to lead to a collective pessimism, gnawing sensibilities & lack of enthusiasm & drive for happiness (unlike Israelis). Everything becomes unstuck & pervs are unleashed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enjo_k%C5%8Dsai

    Enjo-kōsai (援助交際 compensated dating, shortened form enkō 援交,) is a type of transactional relationship. It is the Japanese language term for the practice of older men giving money and/or luxury gifts to attractive young women for their companionship or possibly for sexual favors. The female participants range from school girls (aka JK business) to housewives.

    …..

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Dmitry
  88. @Mr. Hack

    Why are you telling me this? Have I suggested anywhere that the German nation was somehow the primary source of barbarism for subsequent national disorders?

    The Hollywood Jews have taught you well.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    , @Mr. Hack
  89. @Hyperborean

    My comment was meant as a joke about British villains in movies though.
    The British probably aren’t that popular with “Hollywood Jews” either (e.g. just think of that Exodus movie as far back as 1960 which featured anti-British terrorists as heroes).

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  90. AP says:
    @Swarthy Greek

    Crimean Tatars are a mixture of Tatar invaders with local Greeks, Germans (Ostrogths) whom they assimilated. They are natives, in the way that Spanish-speaking Mestizos in Mexico are natives:

    A DNA analysis of a Crimean Tatar,which is probably typical:

    http://www.iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html

    28% Northern Asian
    22% Northern European
    20% Southwest Asian (Middle East)
    20% Mediterranean
    7% Southeast Asian
    2% Native American

  91. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    The 2% Native American is very interesting.

    • Replies: @AP
  92. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    That just reflects people whose ancestors in Siberia were related to those who left for North America; it should be added to the Asian total.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  93. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    About 10,000 left (5% of the population).

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @Mikhail
  94. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    That’s not that much in the grand scheme of things.

    Also, do you know how many Russians moved to Crimea since 2014?

    • Replies: @AP
  95. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Makes sense.

    BTW, I wonder what the average IQ ceiling of the Crimean Tatars is? 95?

  96. songbird says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    There will probably be a demographic race in Europe as well. That’s a big part of the mystery: how can a state become natalist without encouraging the local hostile-alien populations to grow?

    I doubt if it can be done without explicit racism. (Well, perhaps, in theory but it would involve an unworkable conspiracy, with full cooperation of all whites ). Therefore legal or explicit racism in the law is necessary for Europe’s survival. So, far I don’t see any sign of it being adopted.

    Japan and China are very lucky, since they don’t really have this problem.

    • Replies: @Aly
    , @Dmitry
  97. @German_reader

    I meant it seriously (see his ‘great artists of colour’ comment.

    The British probably aren’t that popular with “Hollywood Jews” either (e.g. just think of that Exodus movie as far back as 1960 which featured anti-British terrorists as heroes).

    But I find it much bizarre when they mock Brits, they have to resort to very comically villain depictions (like that Gibson film you mentioned).

    • Replies: @German_reader
  98. @AP

    Crimean Tatars are a mixture of Tatar invaders with local Greeks, Germans (Ostrogths) whom they assimilated. They are natives, in the way that Spanish-speaking Mestizos in Mexico are natives:

    By that measure one can justify the Arab conquests, Mongols, Turks, mumerous invasions of India, etc.

    • Replies: @AP
  99. @Hyperborean

    I meant it seriously (see his ‘great artists of colour’ comment.

    Well, his basic point (there are highly intelligent people in all groups – well, maybe most groups, I don’t know if there have ever been pygmy geniuses) isn’t completely wrong.
    I wonder though which “artists of colour” he was thinking of…I suppose it isn’t a reference to rap music…maybe certain indigenous art styles?

    But I find it much bizarre when they mock Brits, they have to resort to very comically villain depictions

    That’s true for all negatively depicted groups in Hollywood movies though…Hollywood Nazis (who are often depicted as psychologically abnormal sadists) are caricatures too.
    Or think of the Russians in Rambo 2/3, or Serbs in some movies from the 1990s/early 2000s (e.g. there was a hilariously evil Serb sniper in Behind enemy lines in 2001). All absurd stereotypes which are hard to take seriously.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  100. @German_reader

    I wonder though which “artists of colour” he was thinking of…I suppose it isn’t a reference to rap music…maybe certain indigenous art styles?

    He was a bit vague:

    All of the nationalities have gifted and incredible people. The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

    It sounds a bit like a reference to Jazz, latin music, etc.

    A lot of people like the popular culture of non-white Americans or their native art. But then again a lot of people also like abstract art.

    It would be elucidating if Hr. Hack could give examples of what he considers ‘great genius’.

    That’s true for all negatively depicted groups in Hollywood movies though…Hollywood Nazis (who are often depicted as psychologically abnormal sadists) are caricatures too.
    Or think of the Russians in Rambo 2/3, or Serbs in some movies from the 1990s/early 2000s (e.g. there was a hilariously evil Serb sniper in Behind enemy lines in 2001). All absurd stereotypes which are hard to take seriously.

    Those are not funny though, just dull.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  101. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    That’s not that much in the grand scheme of things.

    Having come back from Central Asia, they aren’t willing to leave lightly. Presumably the ones who left are the most hardcore anti-Russian.

    Also, do you know how many Russians moved to Crimea since 2014

    I would’t necessarily trust (or distrust) those numbers, but it’s not an insignificant number:

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/19/russians-moving-into-occupied-crimea-now-form-one-fifth-of-its-population/

    • Replies: @Anonymous lurker
  102. AP says:
    @Hyperborean

    I’m not justifying the conquests (including of Tatars into Europe), just pointing out that the product of the conquest can often be considered to be natives. If Turks weren’t heavily native Anatolians, they would resemble Kazakhs.

    Here are Turks:

    Here are Kazakhs:

    • Replies: @songbird
  103. Mr. Hack says:
    @Hyperborean

    WTH are you trying to convey??…

  104. @AP

    It would be nice if somebody attempted to substantiate those claims of “genocide” (sic) and “soft deportation”…

    The Rosstat and Krymstat data I looked at show a slow general population decline in the RK (and as far as emigration goes, >80% are moving to “mainland” Russia) and some obvious growth (partly due to immigration, both from the rest of Crimea and from elsewhere) in Sevastopol (which is treated separately, being its own administrative subject).

    I just have a hard time reconciling that with alarmist “1/5th of the current pop is recent invaders” stuff.

    Perhaps something for Karlin to dig into, at any rate. I miss his demographic rundowns.

    As an anecdote, a buddy of mine moved to Crimea from northern Russia in 2017, stayed there until this winter, then moved back up north just now. So 1.5 years give or take. Reason being that he works with digital infrastructure and was involved in some of the revamping projects down there, including the new Simferopol airport, and couldn’t be arsed to commute so to speak. Don’t think he “displaced” anyone during his stint there or anything.

    He did tell me that he found native Crimeans a bit hick-ish, in lack of a better term, though. Dat imperialist sob!

  105. Mr. Hack says:
    @Hyperborean

    It sounds a bit like a reference to Jazz, latin music, etc.

    You are perceptive and correct. Jazz is certainly the musical form that had its most important moments in the 20th century, being led by a vanguard of black musicians such as Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington, Charlie Parker and of course Miles Davis. Modern jazz could not exist without the work of geniuses of this caliber. A direct offfshoot of this medium is latin jazz or Afro Cuban jazz, with such luminaries as Chucho Valdez and Gonzalo Rubalcaba leading the way (both musicians ‘of color’, Latinos). There are many, many more that one can point to.

    I’m less familiar with black artistic painters, but one of my favorites is Romaro Beardin:

    Those with more of an inclination towards natural representation might find current supestar Kehinde Wilde interestin:g:

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Dmitry
    , @Anonnuaa
  106. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Crimean Tatar Population in Crimea

    About 10,000 left (5% of the population).

    The above highlighted figure is wrong. Among the available sources:

    https://unpo.org/members/7871

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea

    • Replies: @AP
  107. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Swarthy Greek

    So true about Dzhemilev and the Tatars not being like the Indians of the Western Hemisphere.

    Related:

    http://www.academia.edu/37358188/Michael_Averko_Consistency_and_Reality_Lacking_on_Crimea

    • Replies: @AP
  108. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    So true about Dzhemilev and the Tatars not being like the Indians of the Western Hemisphere.

    Of course they are not like the Indians of the Western hemisphere. They are like the Mestizos of the Western Hemisphere.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  109. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    About 10,000 left (5% of the population).

    The above highlighted figure is wrong. Among the available sources:

    https://unpo.org/members/7871

    Okay. From this link:

    “This has left Crimean Tatars in a precarious and dangerous position: accept the de facto control of Russia in the region, along with its diminutive view of the Crimean Tatar people, or flee their home. Thousands have already chosen the latter option, fleeing to Ukraine, Turkey, Poland and elsewhere in order to avoid oppression at the hands of the annexation authorities.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea

    Link shows 12,000 fewer Tatars in 2014 than in 2001.

    :::::::

    The links you posted support what I said.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  110. Ender says:

    I have to honest to be honest with you people, what makes you people think you can win, because if you want your cause to win, you have to change the fundamental teleos of materials and people who are younger than them, and I do not see how that is possible unless the West gets rechristianized and adopts its teleos.

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @Anonnuaa
  111. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Okay. Issue of clarity. Big difference between saying that 10,000 Tatars left Crimea versus saying that there’re about ten thousand Tatars left in Crimea.

    In any event, the overwhelming majority of them have remained and from the look of things remain (for the most part) content. Related is the situation with the Crimean Tatar Eurovision winner Jamala, who went to Ukraine after Crimea’s reunification with Russia – much unlike her family members who stayed and seem to be doing well.

    Related:

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/02/28/eurovision-crimean-tatars-and-some-digressions.html

    • Replies: @AP
  112. Mikhail says: • Website
    @AP

    Of course they are not like the Indians of the Western hemisphere. They are like the Mestizos of the Western Hemisphere.

    Noticeable difference in the historical context that at times has been used for propaganda puirposes. The Tatars who came to Crimea didn’t predate the Rus era Slavs in that area. The Indians of the Western Hemisphere (in North and South America) predated the European settlers.

    The word Mestizo is used to describe mixed race folks in Latin America of Indian AKA indigenuous and other backgrounds – typically, African and/or Euro background(s).

    For that matter, North American Indians are very typically of mixed and in some instances very mixed backgrounds.

  113. @AP

    Turks are not natives, they are subhuman parasites that should be exterminated at any cost .

    • Replies: @AP
  114. DFH says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Jazz is terrible. The Jazz you like was invented for white (really Jewish: Louis Armstrong wore a Star of David pendant his whole life) audiences anyway.

    one of my favorites is Romaro Beardin

    He is terrible. You see much better work at A-level art shows.

    Those with more of an inclination towards natural representation might find current supestar Kehinde Wilde interestin:g:

    Not only is he terrible, but (as Sailer wrote about) he outsources the actual painting part to China.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  115. DFH says:
    @Ender

    The word is telos τελοσ not teleos

  116. LondonBob says:
    @Dmitry

    The world is vastly overpopulated, overcrowded countries shrinking is perhaps an inevitable human group reaction. The issue really is the massive increase in Sub Saharan Africans and open borders.

    If the British population were to decline to fifty million, ethnically British, I would see this as positive.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  117. LondonBob says:
    @DFH

    Most women want to be stay at home mums who look after their children, go to coffee mornings, lunches and shopping. They have to be able to afford this but the double income leading to high housing costs, having to escape immigrant dysfunction and paying for those immigrants’ own leisure lifestyle makes this now unaffordable.

  118. LondonBob says:
    @Mikhail

    How else is NATO to justify itself?

  119. Mr. Hack says:
    @DFH

    Jazz is terrible. The Jazz you like was invented for white (really Jewish: Louis Armstrong wore a Star of David pendant his whole life) audiences anyway.

    Why don’t you just come out and say that music is terrible? I mean jazz music encompasses so many different strains of international music (including classical) that its always been difficult to succinctly characterize it. But there’s no doubt that the original impulse evolved from black slave and spiritual music. I suppose if you consider all things Christian to be Jewish, you may be right. Yeah, Jewish bakers in New Orleans who specialized in making matzah were integral in forming jazz music, it became especially popular in Jewish restaurants that specialized in matzah ball soup and gefilte fish. 🙂

    The Russians got this one right:

    в кус и цвет товариша нет!

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  120. Mr. Hack says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Do you like any modern pop music? It’s all derivative of ‘rhythym & blues’ which is a direct offshoot of jazz.The Beatles were also instrumental in promoting bar mitzvah music too?

    It was precisely because the Beatles loved rhythm and blues music so much, and had thoroughly absorbed the music, that they became so wildly popular in America. They not only loved the music, but crucially, they learned from it. In particular, they learned how to balance songwriting craft and instrumental technique with emotional expressiveness. The hallmark of R&B and soul is that it’s both structured and expressive. The Beatles aspired to achieve this balance in their songwriting and in their playing. It’s sometimes overlooked that the Beatles, especially McCartney, were great players, as well as great songwriters. And the Beatles’ conceptions of what it meant to be a great player came from listening to black American musicians.”

    https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2014/02/09/byron-dobson-dont-forget-rbs-influence-on-the-beatles/5294423/

    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
  121. Here is one of 2018 developments that Karlin did NOT anticipate – I’m talking about conflict between Russia and Belarus, which btw shows no sign of stopping.

    Belarus will allow US diplomats for the first time since 2008.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/10/diplomatic-breakthrough-for-washington-in-europes-last-dictatorship-belarus-warming-relations-with-west-united-states-lukashenko-putin-russia-dispute-diplomacy-state-department-eastern-europe/

    Russian TV anchor says that Belarus will “disappear”, if it turns against Russia.
    https://belsat.eu/en/news/there-will-be-no-belarus-without-russia-propagandist-kiselyov/

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    , @reiner Tor
  122. AP says:
    @Mikhail

    Big difference between saying that 10,000 Tatars left Crimea versus saying that there’re about ten thousand Tatars left in Crimea.

    Um, I never said only 10,000 Crimean Tatars were left in Crimea.

    In response to “Did a lot of Tatars leave Crimea after the 2014 census there? ” I wrote 10,000 left.

    The other guy understood.

  123. AP says:
    @Swarthy Greek

    LOL, well from the POV of a full-blooded Mayan, Spanish-speaking Mestizos aren’t native either. But then what are they? Sending Turks or Tatars back to the Asian steppes many of their ancestors came from would be akin to sending Mestizos “back” to Spain.

    Having said that, it’s a damn shame that the Turks didn’t lose in 1919-1920. The world would have been a much better place if the borders looked like this:

    • Replies: @Swarthy Greek
  124. @Mr. Hack

    Country is the only modern music genre still made by whites for whites, but even then, (((they))) infiltrated Nashville significantly.

    The rest are too Africanized or too niche (e.g. metal). Jazz is black music with (((them))) as the main consumers.

    • Replies: @AP
  125. songbird says:
    @AP

    I think I prefer the Kazakhs? I don’t know…. haven’t met any Kazakhs. And I guess there are subtle biases in the pictures.

    I met my first Turk on a plane ride to Germany. I plan to never visit Turkey.

  126. Mr. Hack says:

    The rest are too Africanized or too niche (e.g. metal). Jazz is black music with (((them))) as the main consumers.

    Wrong. The majority of jazz devotees are high paid white urban dwellers, who relish their love of jazz music (they’re relatively young too, picking up where dad and gramps left off):

    Nielsen’s Audience Insights Report on jazz music fans (which focuses on listeners aged 25 to 48) shows that these young listeners tend to live in major metropolitan cities and skew 58% male. While they are predominantly white, they are twice as likely to be African-American as the average music listener. They also have a taste for the good life. These listeners are travelers, with a preference for high-end hotel chains, and a higher propensity to fly domestically on most major airlines in the past 12 months relative to other music listeners. They’re also fashionistas and are considerably more likely to buy designer jeans and shop at high-end department stores than other music listeners.

    https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2016/brands-that-engage-with-jazz-fans-wont-be-left-singing-the-blues.html
    This doesn’t mean that blacks are not into jazz music either. Remember:

    It don’t mean a thing if it aint got that swing!

    • Replies: @DFH
    , @AquariusAnon
  127. DFH says:
    @Mr. Hack

    These listeners are travelers, with a preference for high-end hotel chains, and a higher propensity to fly domestically on most major airlines in the past 12 months relative to other music listeners. They’re also fashionistas and are considerably more likely to buy designer jeans and shop at high-end department stores than other music listeners.

    So, in other words, rootless cosmopolitans?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  128. Mr. Hack says:
    @DFH

    In my estimation, they’re intelligent, educated people who are interested in trends around the world, travel, reading, cuisine and most definitely have an interest in their own, native music called jazz.

    You must live in some sort of a static cocoon. 🙂

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  129. @AP

    The treaty of Lausanne is another of Lenin’s many achievements/S

    P.S: Just to clarify, i do not advocate genocide for real.

  130. DreadIlk says:
    @Mr. Hack

    When I was there this fall I stocked up on pharmaceuticals for my self and as a request for someone. They had high quality Euro/Jap pharmaceuticals available for dirt cheap. I did not pay attention to Russian made stuff at the pharmacy but the pharmacy it self left a very good impression with me. Had everything you would ever need. We had to buy a lot of pediasure for our kid while staying there and got to visit multiple pharmacies.

    Furthermore on general standard of living it was pretty good. Can’t compare to US but nobody would expect them to. 6$ for 10gb of data and less then 10$ for home internet.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  131. Mr. Hack says:
    @DreadIlk

    I stayed at a hotel in Gurzev about 15 years ago. $35 a day for two, including two meals per day, a piece. Ahhh…the good old days.

    I think that the jazz festival (damn those Ukrainians and Russians digging on that ‘black man’s music’) at Koktebel would be a blast! 🙂

  132. @AP

    They’re UN minus Africa.

  133. Mitleser says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Reminder that Belarus’ first nuclear reactor will be launched in 2019.

    Russia’s state-run nuclear corporation Rosatom will commission the first power unit of the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant (BelAES) by the end of next year, Chief Executive Officer Aleksei Likhachev said at a meeting with Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Rumas on Saturday.

    “The elder brother of the Belarusian plant – the first unit of the second Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (LNPP) – has undergone production tests and operates at its full capacity as of today. It is going to be commissioned by the end of the year. Thus, we are preparing for a similar procedure here (in Belarus) taking into account the gained experience, we assume that it is going to happen by the end of next year,” he said.

    According to Rumas, that is Belarus’ biggest project, particularly in terms of investments.

    The first nuclear power plant in Belarus is being built with the use of Russian technologies near the town of Ostrovets in the Grodno region. It will consist of two power units with the total capacity of 2,400-megawatt. The launch of the first power unit is planned for 2019, the second will be commissioned in 2020.

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/1021748

    Meanwhile, Germany will lose another one. 🙁

  134. Jon0815 says:
    @AquariusAnon

    What I don’t see a bright future for is Donbass. Even Damascus with such a damaging war is still bustling with activity, but Donetsk seems to be a ghost town.

    Donetsk hardly looks like a ghost town in the many youtube videos.

    I think ultimately the DLNR has a very bright future because it is only a matter of time before it rejoins Russia. Even now, economic recovery is occurring and it’s likely that per capita GDP is steadily converging with Ukraine’s.

  135. Mitleser says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Even Damascus with such a damaging war is still bustling with activity

    Damascus is the capital and full of Syrian IDPs.

    You can easily find footage of major Syrian cities where they look like ghost towns.

    Homs city, third largest city in Syria:

  136. Isn’t it a little bit silly to count as a loss (or a win) predictions you made with 50% certainty? After all, if you say it’s fifty percent likely to happen, then you’re implicitly predicting the negative of it happening with the exact same likelihood.

  137. @Mr. Hack

    I don’t listen to svidomy neoliberalism.txt music, which Jazz seems to be.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  138. Mr. Hack says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Not a problem – to each his own.

  139. AP says:
    @AquariusAnon

    Country is the only modern music genre still made by whites for whites, but even then, (((they))) infiltrated Nashville significantly.

    Punk, alternative/indie music is actually like that. And metal which you mention. Hmmm..I suppose rock in general, nowadays.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  140. Dmitry says:
    @LondonBob

    How it feels on the graph…

    But yes now there is a synchonization problem when white and yellow are into demographic transition perhaps a century earlier than browns and blacks.

    Although any politicians could avoid this as a relevant problem, just reconceiving aging population as not invariably bad, and not trying to substitute it with immigration (how difficult is it?)

  141. Dmitry says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    It is part of the stressful atmosphere in Israel, that there are many children everywhere.

    Also there is the contributing to the stress attitude that parents there spoil and allow the children to do anything,* and allow them to run wild.

    * Explains about that 8:00 minutes in video here:

  142. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I was reading people (actually commentators on this website) saying African Americans largely stop playing jazz music (about 30-40 years ago), sadly?

    Nowadays, I’ll guess some Russian children are probably better in jazz than American equivalents?

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  143. Dmitry says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Some American Africans say jazz is their music, only. On this website (which is some other dimension), people are saying jazz is Jewish (well they like jazz in Odessa and some say jazz was invented in Odessa).

    But already, in one of Beethoven late piano sonatas, there is something like Scott Joplin.

    As for people who like jazz. It’s usually people who when they were children played certain types of musical instruments at school (brass instruments, some woodwind instruments like saxophones, and drums, but also if you learn piano the teacher will usually give you some ‘jazz style’ compositions to learn).

    For normal listeners and music fans, jazz is too self-indulgent, discordant and monotonous. But if you were playing these particular instruments when you were young – these are the people who grow up into the ‘core’ of the jazz fans – as they admire the musicians are doing in jazz music.

    And obviously, it’s small number of people who like jazz (as it is less universal than classical music), and normally people who are middle class (people whose parents bought them musical instruments when they were children).

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Gerard2
  144. Max Payne says:

    ….did do hard drugs this year….

    I’m so proud of you.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  145. Mr. Hack says:
    @Dmitry

    Well there’s no doubt that jazz music is an artform that was hatched and that developed first in the southern part of the US – New Orleans is correctly identified as the precise spot by the excellent filmmaker Ken Burns =https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yudbGX95iw&list=PLgIMBytjdlgUjGlKmzbDVl-lwvtmBQvGs

    My most favorite form of jazz over the last 10-15 years has been ‘Latin Jazz’ – it’s the stuff that I really adore. There are many sub variants of this kind of jazz from Brazilian jazz to Afro-Cuban style. I recently saw this group, the Harlem Spanish Orchestra (New York Salsa), that brought the whole house up on its feet swaying together in hypnotic cadence. The music is infectious to say the least:

    • Replies: @Gerard2
  146. Mr. Hack says:
    @Dmitry

    Really nice stuff, the girl on the trumpet is a real gem! But don’t count US kids out. Many highschools and colleges around the country have great youth groups that also can toot their horns. Searching youtube I could see that there are dozens of great youth groups dedicated to jazz around the world. Maybe it really is a Jewish conspiracy theory afoot to help promote blackness to an otherwise white world? 🙂

  147. Mr. Hack says:
    @Max Payne

    One can only wonder whether this is a ‘badge of honor’ or some kind of cry from within signalling that there’ more at play here, and that it might not all be good?…Since, Karlin has brought this up several times now, I think that he needs to explain what this phase in his life means? It sounds like more than an ounce of weed and a few giggles with close friends…

  148. Anonnuaa says:
    @Mr. Hack

    I could respect you being a retarded Hohol but not worshipping negro musicians.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  149. Anonnuaa says:

    Also lol at the nerd providing university level analysis about why you need to do/give everything women want.

    That’s exactly how it works until this nerd encounters

    “Nice guys can’t fuck” on a t-shirt. 😂

  150. Anonnuaa says:

    Don’t educate women, they contribute marginally anyway.

    Most of women’s education was Protestant American Christcucks who thought it was a christian thing to do.

    Will non negro humanity survive or will the Anglo-American empire. It’s really down to that,

    I put faith in the Aryans.

    Off this,

    Make more military posts & workout more Fat Karlin.

    I won’t bother this jew, hohol & nerd infested blog anymore.

  151. @songbird

    My grandma had 15 brothers and sisters, 8 of whom reached adulthood. (The rest died before reaching age 5.)

    OT

    Interestingly, my father is doing some ancestry research, and it disproved a pretty recent family story. It was claimed that two of my great-grandparents came from Austria, but apparently they were just normal Donauschwaben like the rest of my paternal ancestors. We are wondering how that legend came to be. (My father was told that Austrian relatives used to visit until the war, so maybe some of them moved to Austria and the youngest daughter, i.e. my grandma, just assumed that that’s where some of her ancestors came from? Especially since her grandparents with the Austrian relatives could only speak German and no Hungarian, so it might have seemed logical.)

    It also makes me question how any oral history could be accurate at all.

    • Replies: @songbird
  152. @Felix Keverich

    I have been reading about it for a long time. It always struck me that the western policy of sanctioning Lukashenka was stupid. It didn’t work, and it needlessly pushed Belarus into Russia’s arms.

    Putin needs to do something soon, unless he wants another humiliating defeat. But what could be done at all?

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  153. @AP

    Extreme metal is pretty open to far right ideologies, though there are lots of cucks, too.

  154. Aly says:
    @songbird

    I think it’s correct to assume that high-fertility alien population will grow regardless, so pronatalist policies will have little to no effect on them. Also you can designate that policies in a way they are conditional on work requirement or something like that…also support can be focused on day care, more maternity leave, not just money giveaway. All that stuff will benefit more native population.

  155. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anonnuaa

    Are the white kids (Russian) also ‘worshiping negro musicians’ in comment #142?

  156. @reiner Tor

    Depose Lukashenka and take charge of political transition in the country. We should run Belarus as a kind of protectorate like South Oseetia, controlling its foreign and domestic policies.

    At the very least, Russia should ditch its costly subsidies to Belarus – giving money to Lukashenka regime is buying us nothing and it’s a big drain on the budget. Fortunately, Kremlin seems to be moving in that direction.

  157. songbird says:
    @reiner Tor

    Wow, did they live in the city? All the 16 I mentioned lived, but they were pretty rural before adulthood.

    I have found oral family history to be a mixed-bag. My aunt had what seems to me to be shocking misconceptions about some of her own aunts. She thought some of them – people she definitely knew well – were half sisters to each other, when they were not. In reality, her grandfather was previously married and had like 5 or 6 children before becoming a widower, but they all died. I suspect it was because they lived in the slums.

    Still, I wish I had asked the older generations I knew as a boy more. A family tree by itself doesn’t tell you much.

    I think that is why some people act so rootlessly, they have a discontinuity to the past. I’ve wondered whether there may be a way to change this in the future. One idea that I came up with is that there could be a household spirit. Kind of like a weak AI that would do different things like recommend your grandpa’s favorite books. Also, I’ve wondered if we should encourage something like Shintoism.

  158. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    : how can a state become natalist without encouraging the local hostile-alien populations to grow?

    It’s not that clear current government natalist policy (like maternity capital) changes much the birth rate (for any population).

    I read even officials saying maternity capital is desirable more because it changes (reduces) the poverty rate, rather than increases birth rate.*

    _

    *E.g. (Sorry no English)
    https://www.newsko.ru/news/nk-5063136.html

    • Replies: @songbird
  159. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    I agree – current policies are largely ineffective. But in my view, this just means that the incentives have to increase. That governments aren’t taking the problem seriously.

    I can think of a few ways of doing it: namely bursting the housing, healthcare and education bubbles. Ditch all the fags and divorced couples on TV and put a lot of happy families with a lot of children. Cut social costs of parasitic aliens. Help young people socialize.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  160. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    I agree – current policies are largely ineffective. But in my view, this just means that the incentives have to increase. That governments aren’t taking the problem seriously.

    Relative to average incomes in Russia – maternity capital is quite significant and generous as a form of welfare.

    However, it probably only changes timing of births (boosting period fertility rate for some years) rather than changing overall cohort fertility rate.

    namely bursting the housing, healthcare and education bubbles.

    In Russia, healthcare (for mothers) and education costs are not the problem. Housing is also really not expensive (relative to other countries of comparable development, even new housing is usually cheap, if not of high construction quality).

    Housing is really cheaper a lot than most of Europe.

    Ditch all the fags

    In Chechnya, it is always one of the highest birthrate “superstar” regions in Russia. At the same time, gays are often persecuted there. But correlation is not causation here. Rather they are both non-interacting parallel effects of the common cause – the Islamization process in Chechen society.

    fags and divorced couples on TV

    There are a lot of fags in Russian television, but it is not openly promoted.

    On the other hand, in countries like Republic of Ireland gays openly promoted, and the country has a relatively high birthrate for Europe. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/baby-boom-puts-ireland-top-of-eu-birth-rate-table-1.3150045

    Is there any causal relation? Gays are more statistically insignificant than people realize (something around 2% of the population in reality), so gays – if they can be made to have children and behave heterosexually – would still only relate to fertility rates of a small percentage of the population.

    Help young people socialize.

    There’s something here.

    Religion is part of this socialization issue. Some extreme religions (Islam, Mormons, Orthodox Jews) of course boost fertility in a crude way, and don’t allow contraception.

    But non-extreme religion is not necessarily affecting fertility rate. Poland is the proportionally most religious country in Europe (although degree of religion is non-extreme), and it has one of the lowest fertility rates of any country in Europe


    Ultimately, the whole situation will be solved when development of artificial womb technology reaches the market – this would add enough points to the fertility rate.

    Until then, the thing should be pushed for, is to restrict immigration and not allow politicians to try to boost finances by substituting with less pleasanter kinds of immigrants.

    • Replies: @Ender
    , @Mitleser
  161. songbird says:

    I view gays not reproducing as voluntary eugenics. It’s not their lack of TFR that is the problem, but their very outsized and generally negative political and cultural influence.

    Ireland can be ranked as the best of the worst by birthrate, but in a worse position than other EU countries by enrichment, political leadership, and trends. I believe it is in the worst shape that it has ever been in – in a nationalistic sense. Worse than famine and worse than invasion or English rule.

    The social environment is undoubtedly the primary factor, but I believe it feeds into economics. People desire more resources since, they lack the personal kin relationships that they used to have.

    I don’t know if you ever saw a baby taken into an old age home, but the effect is really profound. I don’t think any race will by itself commit suicide. Immigration and the hostile pops it creates is really the main policy question, and the latter vastly facilitates the former.

    • Replies: @Ender
    , @Ender
    , @Dmitry
  162. Ender says: • Website
    @Dmitry

    Why did the Abrahamic religions, the Germanic tribes, and Zoroastrianism expend so much social effort to suppress homosexuality if as you say, it is basically harmless? Why hasn’t a single culture before the modern era sanctioned same sex marriage?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  163. Ender says:
    @songbird

    I thougth the aim of the Abrahamic religions was to always make gays heterosexual? The thing is that i do not think that the LGBT community will ever be fully happy with the generous terms of the gay dhimitude or helotry status that you people are offering , and thus the only options are full suppression of homosexual culture, like what went on in the 50s, or maybe even more stringent than that, or the full normalization and promotion of homosexual culture in order to bring about safety in numbers,by changing thr heteronormative cultural environment that they live in, and really if you were in their shoes, if you know what is good for you you would have the same objectives too.

  164. Ender says:
    @songbird

    I think that strategic error of the 50s was the conservatives allowing the gays breathing space to establish themselves in the media and in Hollywood, where their disproportionate influence and the gay mafia allowed them to change the culture in a way that was more friendly to them through their control of the media. I think HL Meckem already pointed this out.

  165. Ender says:

    I mean if you think of gays as a troublesome minority, then you should treat them in the same way that China treats the Uyghurs, basically assimilate them into mainstream heteronormative society, monitor them so that they do not form their own groups, where they can resist having their behevior modified, or form clandestine, where they can form secrey societies and plot conspiracies and trouble.

  166. Mitleser says:
    @Dmitry

    On the other hand, in countries like Republic of Ireland gays openly promoted, and the country has a relatively high birthrate for Europe. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/baby-boom-puts-ireland-top-of-eu-birth-rate-table-1.3150045

    That is because it is the Republic of Ireland, an European country which had a TFR of 3+ in the early 80s.
    Note that last year’s TFR was the lowest in their history.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  167. Dmitry says:
    @Ender

    I don’t know about religion. But we are talking about birth rates. Gays are 2% of the population, so need to do something like divide any change of their own fertility rate by 50 to see its effect on fertility.

  168. Dmitry says:
    @Mitleser

    Interestingly for Republic of Ireland, their first demographic transition was a generation later than ours. So they should be now in the “1990s” demographically (if they follow our situation)..

    Currently their age of birth is rising rapidly (to a high age) so someone needs to apply this “Bongaarts and Feeney formula” to estimate their adjusted fertility rate (it will be higher than the current one).

    which had a TFR of 3+ in the early 80s.

    Fertility rate is independent though of size of current fertile cohort of women.

    • Replies: @Aly
  169. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Republic of Ireland has its own native, crazy ultra left politics.

    At the same time, their standard of living is one of the fastest increasing in the world in the last 5 or so years, and their macroeconomics almost saved from the financial crisis.

    These things are generally not related, except that politicians of ROI are just clever enough not to allow their social politics to danger their “goose laying golden eggs” of foreign investment. Or in a cliche war between fridge and television, the fridge can win there.

  170. Gerard2 says:
    @Dmitry

    Some American Africans say jazz is their music, only. On this website (which is some other dimension), people are saying jazz is Jewish (well they like jazz in Odessa and some say jazz was invented in Odessa).

    Dmitry, Jazz is 50% African American…and 42% Russian.It’s no coincidence that by a gigantic distance the most superior and numerous high quality Classical Music composers were Russian at the end of the 19th/beginning of the 20th century.
    France and Britain were producing some decent composers at the time, Germany, Italy , Spain ,Hungary and the rest ..not so much…but Russia the undisputed leader.

    It’s derivative from these genius Russian composers that Jewish emmigrants to the US were able to learn and misapproriate as their own ,subsequent compositions that lead into this cross-over and “classical” music into “Jazz”. Gershwin ( Russian Empire jew) being the obvious place for people to start.

    This morphing of the “New Orleans” and the classical-jazz cross over is what then lead to all the Big band/American Songbook/Beebop stuff.

    Every single non-Carol Christmas song was written by a jew in America…most of them of Russian Empire descent…and this applies to much of the Great American songbook in general

    For normal listeners and music fans, jazz is too self-indulgent, discordant and monotonous. But if you were playing these particular instruments when you were young – these are the people who grow up into the ‘core’ of the jazz fans – as they admire the musicians are doing in jazz music.

    “Modern Jazz” …yes, not so much the Big Band stuff on its own or with the famous singers like Sinatra, Peggy Lee and Sammy Davis Junior…or funk for that matter ( Stevie Wonder being derivative from that)

    On a separate note, Andrei Previn, a famous jewish classical music conductor is also a genius at playing jazz piano

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  171. songbird says:

    I think that it is not so much that Irish pols are more pragmatic – even in one measure – but rather that they live in a different dynamic – a small country that was poor at the right time. They effectively have a different model of looting that isn’t as obviously attractive in a large, wealthy country like France.

    Bono, though not technically a pol, really demonstrates how it is not a contradiction. He is really an overthetop globalist, almost like a cartoon. He has basically called for the genocide of Swedes (through immigration but blatantly) as well as the Irish. But he has always preached tax competitiveness.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  172. Dmitry says:
    @Gerard2

    Ukrainians were just protesting saxophonist Igor Butman from playing in New York because of his view in Crimea.

    Btw Butman and his orchestra – some Jazz version of Rachmaninov C♯ minor prelude –

  173. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Republic of Ireland are unexpectedly successful (with some perfect storm of good luck and foreign investment).

    Remember they are always a very leftwing country, and this doesn’t change (although their religious attitudes do change, they not less leftwing in the past than now).

    Yet despite this, government is usually centrist,and has exploited investment climate to become Europe’s richest country – and yet they became richest within a generation, and including total crash of their finances.

    • Replies: @songbird
  174. Aly says:
    @Dmitry

    It’s true that fertility rate of cohort is higher then curent one but still that doesn’t help much…because, yeah it’s better if Irish women gives birth in her late 30s than to not have any kids, but age of birth is also very important.
    Consider this, woman A gives birth to 2 kids in her 20s…her kids also have 2 kids of their own in their 20s…so that’s 3 generations, 5 person in 20 year’s time…40 year’s leater 4 generation…
    Woman B gives birth to 2 kids in her 30s…if her children do the same, have kids in their 30s, then they will have kids 20 yeas later then women-A-children…only then there will be 3 generation and 5 person in this case…that’s 40 year’s from starting position.
    Cohort fertility is the same in both cases.
    Well I made this post complicated, english is not my native language, but you can understand what I am trying to say.
    It’s better that at least cohort fertility is higher then not but still, time of birth matters a lot.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  175. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    Ireland has a very strange political history. I’ve tried to make sense of it, but find it quite difficult. All I can say is I suspect there is a big difference between working-class leftism and cosmopolitan leftism.

    I don’t believe they have the highest income – the gdp numbers inflate the idea of their wealth – but it definitely is a big difference compared to the ’70s.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  176. Gerard2 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    My most favorite form of jazz over the last 10-15 years has been ‘Latin Jazz’ – it’s the stuff that I really adore. There are many sub variants of this kind of jazz from Brazilian jazz to Afro-Cuban style. I recently saw this group, the Harlem Spanish Orchestra (New York Salsa), that brought the whole house up on its feet swaying together in hypnotic cadence. The music is infectious to say the least:

    Utterly unlikely that a cretin as yourself would have ever listened to the likes of Antonio Carlos Jobim or any Cuban jazz – even that song “5 minutes” ( of silence) or whatever it was called would be too tuneful for a thick twat as yourself.

    Anyway I would have thought a thick imbecile Svidomite as yourself would have steered clear of any discussion on Jazz – the difference between East and West coast jazz is a million times bigger than the imaginary difference in “Ukrainian” culture and Russian with the same mentality and mannerisms, and that is without saying that East & West coast jazz , they are still both “American” jazz you idiot, much like Russia and Ukraine are one people

  177. Dmitry says:
    @songbird

    Yes it is a good point. Because in Ireland, it was not very industrialized, so there was not a large, self-aware and politicized proletariat in comparison to other European countries in the 20th century. In addition, potential industrialized labour (proletariat) was constantly emigrating (to the America and the UK).

    As a result, leftism of Ireland was strong on international and cosmopolitan topics, but clearly it was not strong in domestic, economic issues. This fortunately for them, probably allowed the centrist government to push its radical low tax policy which – together with a strategic position inside EU trading blocs – resulted in their economic/FDI miracles.

    I don’t believe they have the highest income – the gdp numbers inflate the idea of their wealth

    Yes actually I was disappointed when I had arrived there, because I expected I was going to arrive in a very wealthy country.

    But they are still economically very successful – “poor” of Republic of Ireland, would be middle class in Russia.

    Lol even “gopniks” there can afford to smoke enormous amounts of cannabis in the middle of day (judging by how they smell in the street) – and it is not cheap there.

  178. Dmitry says:
    @Aly

    Sure it might be better to group generations more closely together. Also the unevenness of change in age of giving birth, creates problems of policy (suddenly the schools go from overcrowded to undercrowded).

    On the other hand, mothers who have children later could be more eugenic than dysgenic parts of the population (and this is the kind of people you want to have children).

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